Kevin Correia: 2010 Fantasy Breakout or Bust?

Eric Stashin — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 06:29:57 -0500

It has long been considered that Kevin Correia could develop into a usable fantasy pitcher, though the results had never previously been there. He had shown signs, like pitching to a 2.54 ERA as a starting pitcher in 2007. However, after getting an extended look in 2008 (19 starts) and posting a 5.36 ERA, it was time for him to move on.

Fast-forward 12 months and once again, there is fantasy hope for Correia after posting the following line:

12 Wins
198.0 Innings
3.91 ERA
1.30 WHIP
142 Strikeouts (6.45 K/9)
64 Walks (2.91 BB/9)
.298 BABIP

In those numbers there is some good and there is some questionable. First of all, you have to like the overall ERA and WHIP, which comes courtesy of a realistic BABIP, strand rate (71.4%) and walk rate. In fact, with a career BB/9 of 3.50, there is promise in him being able to maintain the WHIP.

As for the ERA, there is reason to be concerned. Let’s look at his home/road split:

Home - 3.68
Road - 4.18

Was he simply the product of Petco Park? It’s quite possible, as his home BABIP was at .266. While it is interesting that he actually gave up more home runs at home (11) than on the road (6), I’m just not sure that we can continue to expect the same type of luck that he enjoyed in 2009, even in a pitcher’s park.

His BABIP on the road was .338 and his WHIP was 1.37, so while he may improve his luck outside of Petco, it’s likely going to be worse at home. I don’t think the improvement on the road will offset his regression at home, meaning I’d expect an increase in both ERA and WHIP in the coming season.

Another concern is the innings pitched, having never thrown anything near that many innings in the past:

2004 - 124.1 innings
2005 - 121.1 innings
2006 - 68.2 innings
2007 - 101.2 innings
2008 - 125.1 innings

While I may not fully prescribe to the innings pitched theory of not being able to increase by more than 30, you have to wonder how throwing so many more innings in 2009 will affect him. He didn’t show it last season, finishing with ERAs of 3.68 (36.2 innings) and 1.25 (36.0 innings) in August and September.

Yes, there is a concern, but it shouldn’t be a deal breaker.

The bigger concern is Correia’s inability to generate significant swings and misses. In the minor leagues his career K/9 was just 7.1, clearly a mark that would fail to get anyone excited. Unless he can get hitters to strikeout more often, a regression in his BABIP will have a significant affect on his overall numbers.

With all that said, let’s take a look at what I’d expect from him in 2010:

175.0 IP, 9 W, 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 125 K (6.43 K/9), 64 BB (3.29 BB/9)

Those numbers come courtesy of a BABIP of .304, marginally worse than what he posted in 2009. Coupled with a regression in control, however, and the WHIP becomes significantly worse. With the decreased luck in his home park leading to a higher ERA, the numbers just do not look all that appealing for Correia in 2010.

All that with a low strikeout rate and he’s just not a pitcher that I want to have anything to do with in 2010. How about you? Is he someone you want to own? How do you think he’ll perform?

Check out some previous 2010 projections including:

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2010 Dynasty Rankings: Top 25 Outfielders (A First Look)

Eric Stashin — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:28:52 -0500

How is Manny Ramirez’s value affected for Dynasty League Owners? How about young starts like Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, & Jacoby Ellsbury? Let’s take a look at our early outfield rankings:

Ryan Braun - Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Kemp - Los Angeles Dodgers
Carl Crawford - Tampa Bay Rays
Justin Upton - Arizona Diamondbacks
Grady Sizemore - Cleveland Indians
Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox
Carlos Beltran - New York Mets
Jason Bay - Boston Red Sox
Adam Lind - Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Holliday - St. Louis Cardinals
Manny Ramirez - Los Angeles Dodgers
Andre Ethier - Los Angeles Dodgers
Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles
Carlos Lee - Houston Astros
Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers
Jayson Werth - Philadelphia Phillies
Carlos Granderson - Detroit Tigers
Adam Dunn - Washington Nationals
Carlos Quentin - Chicago White Sox
Ichiro Suzuki - Seattle Mariners
Nelson Cruz - Texas Rangers
Ben Zobrist - Tampa Bay Rays
Hunter Pence - Houston Astros
Shin-Soo Choo - Cleveland Indians
B.J. Upton - Tampa Bay Rays

Thoughts

You would think that Manny Ramirez’s value would drop fairly significantly between yearly and dynasty leagues, considering he’ll turn 38 in May. The guy, however, is one of the best hitters in the game and has shown no signs of slowing down. While he doesn’t have unlimited time left, he still should be highly regarded in all formats. He falls a few spots, but not many. I’m just not willing to forfeit this season because someone is going to be more productive in two or three years.
I’ve never been the biggest fan of Shin-Soo Choo, but with 20/20 potential (he got there in 2009) and being significantly younger, he replaces Bobby Abreu on the list.
It’s a tough choice between B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino, but Upton has tremendous upside, despite his power outage the past two seasons. He still has a ton of speed and the power will hopefully come back. He’s a risk I’d certainly take.
Will Curtis Granderson turn things back around? Some people are saying he should be a platoon player, given his .183 average against lefties. I can’t just overlook his .259 number in 2008. If he were to get moved, as has been rumored, his value could be affected, so we’ll have to wait and see how the offseason progresses.
Matt Kemp gets bumped up to the second spot, something that very easily could follow suit for yearly league owners. He has 26 HR and 34 SB last season and has the potential to go 30/30 before too long.
Ellsbury or Beltran? Calling CitiField home is a disadvantage for Beltran, even if he were healthy. Ellsbury’s speed and youth gives him a slight edge, though those two could easily change spots in the coming weeks.

What are your thoughts on these rankings? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

Previous Dynasty Rankings:

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Bleacher Report - Fantasy Baseball

Kevin Correia: 2010 Fantasy Breakout or Bust?

2010 Dynasty Rankings: Top 25 Outfielders (A First Look)