Bleacher Report - NL Central

Rudy Jaramillo Could Make Curtis Granderson a Fit for Chicago Cubs After All

Matt Trueblood — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 05:39:45 -0500

Over the past 10 days or so, rumors have encircled the Detroit Tigers and the Chicago Cubs, centered around the potential trade of current Tigers center fielder Curtis Granderson to the Cubs. Chicago has made it a priority to find a center fielder with an above-average bat this winter, and with a career line of .272/.344/.484, Granderson certainly fits that bill.

However, some have peremptorily impugned the trade on two grounds: first, that Granderson would command too high a price in trade to Detroit; and second, that Granderson (like current Cubs outfielder and fellow left-handed hitter Kosuke Fukudome) cannot hit left-handed pitching.

Of the first objection, I won't speak further here, other than to say that I place far less stock in the hype surrounding Starlin Castro than do most Cubs fans, and would not hesitate to leverage his sky-high current value into a steal of a deal this offseason. Primarily, I want to focus upon the second issue.

It is, to be sure, a serious issue, and a damning allegation against Granderson's value, not least because it's true. In his career, Granderson has a .210/.270/.344 line against southpaws. Those offensive numbers, though accumulated in less than 700 career plate appearances, are untenable and represent a serious problem for which any team that acquires the young outfielder will have to have a solid solution.

The Cubs, however, have one unknown variable that could change the dynamic for Granderson, as well as his would-be outfield mate in Fukudome: newly acquired hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo.

Jaramillo signed on as the Cubs' hitting coach in October, after 15 seasons in the same role with the Texas Rangers. During those 15 years, Jaramillo (who played four years of Minor League ball in the 1970s, and who batted left-handed himself), oversaw one of the best offenses in the league.

Curious, however, I decided to dig deeper, and to try to decipher whether Jaramillo demonstrated any special ability to coach around large platoon splits among his troops.

To do so, I took a large-scale, statistical approach, rather than comb through his pupils one by one in search of anecdotes which I am quite sure would have exerted a selection bias.

Beginning with Jaramillo's debut season as Rangers hitting coach in 1995, I found the ratio of OPS (on-base plus slugging, a very crude estimate of a player's total offensive game) between having the platoon advantage and not having it for every season, and for both the Major Leagues and the Rangers specifically.

The results are encouraging. In ten of fifteen years, Jaramillo's charges better withstood platoon disadvantages than did the league as a whole. Two other seasons netted differences so small, I considered them a wash, given the influence of chance and the fact that Texas had a much smaller set of sample data, thereby making it more susceptible to random fluctuation.

To be more precise about the data I collected, here are the specifics. From 1995 to 2009, the ratio of performance when a batter has the platoon advantage rose fairly steadily for the league in general, from 1.036 to 1.075. That is, batters facing opposite-handed pitching did 7.5 percent better than when facing same-handed hurlers, in 2009. The 3.6 percent difference in 1995 was the lowest in my sample, league-wide.

For the Rangers, however, the ratio was consistently much smaller. In four season, Jaramillo's Rangers saw less than one percent decline when facing same-handed pitching.

Over the 15 years of Jaramillo's tenure, the Rangers averaged a drop-off of about 5.2 percent in those situations, compared to over 6.8 percent for the entire league. That difference may seem small, but in such an enormous sample size (15 years of Major League games), it is highly statistically significant.

At least, then, we can say with confidence that Jaramillo's teams have tended to succeed more often in situations where left-handed hitters face left-handed pitchers than is the league norm. It is not possible to entirely isolate Jaramillo's responsibility for that success.

Indeed, Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee might be inclined not to attribute any of that anomaly to his new coach: "I hate to say it, but a hitting coach is overrated," he said in October after the Cubs fired Von Joshua from that position. "It's more of a mental thing."

As far as it goes, however, the data supports the notion that Granderson would benefit from the tutelage of Jaramillo, and that Fukudome could also sustain more playing time against lefties in this new regime.

Jaramillo is not a witch doctor capable of making Alfonso Soriano hit a pitch above his belt, or resist one below the knees away. If Jim Hendry takes a chance this winter on Curtis Granderson, however, Jaramillo just might make him look like a genius.

Clear as day: One other note to aid those who support Granderson as a trade target. Granderson is a career .280/.360/.518 hitter during the day, substantially better figures than his .268/.336/.466 at night. Unless the Cubs' new owners get the 50 annual night games at home they want right away in 2010 (they won't), that could be a meaningful statistic.

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Redskins Lose to Dallas, Situation Is "Bleak" in D.C.

Jarrett Carter — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:58:29 -0500

In one of the only two meaningful games remaining on the Redskins schedule – the rivalry series with the Dallas Cowboys - the team that would have been victorious suddenly wasn’t. And it’s official to ‘Skins fans everywhere that 5-11 would be an absolute dream, and not just a funny soundbyte out of former ball coach Steve Spurrier.

I ask in 2009 what was legitimately asked in 2008: Do Redskins fans REALLY want Dallas ? Until the management structure is in place to do the rivalry justice, is it wise to thirst for blood out of this turnip out of a match-up? And don’t get me wrong; the Redskins, on paper, are capable of beating Dallas as currently constructed.

But the psyche and spirit of this team is do damaged, the prospect of winning big games so foreign, you would be hard pressed to make an argument for this Redskins team to be little more than the franchise standard for ineptitude.

Where do you begin with today’s choke job? Missed field goals? Porous defense in the late stages of the game? Injuries that limited any hope for offensive balance ? And yet, as late as could be without actually winning, the Redskins were in position to win.

Close enough for the victory cigar to be poked right into their collective eyes.

Jim Zorn calls the situation bleak for the Redskins , and honestly, that doesn’t begin to describe it. The Ravens situation is bleak. The Redskins? They’re forgettable.

And against a rival that matters above all else, against an opponent that transcends records, stats and time itself, forgettable reminded us all that forgettable is the most this team can muster.

Technorati Tags: Dallas Cowboys , Washington Redskins

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Washington Redskins: Road to Relevance Begins in Dallas

Jarrett Carter — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 11:58:42 -0500

Two weeks ago, it wasn’t a stretch to assume that the Redskins would lose the balance of their schedule, finish 2-14, and pioneer new ways to draft everything other than offensive linemen. But a funny thing happened on the way to national ridicule and complete fan revolt.

Washington scored more than 17 points for the first time all year. And they won.

So today’s Redskins-Cowboys game holds much more than bragging rights and NFC East intrigue. Depending on the execution and proficiency of the Redskins’ offense, today’s result could make the difference between that 2-14 debacle and a 6-10 flop of a season.

This isn’t to say that the Cowboys are a legitimate playoff contender or a team by which the Redskins can measure their improving offensive profile. In fact, a great performance against the Cowboys will go as far as their play against the free-falling Denver Broncos did a week ago.

But at the very least, a win against the Cowboys will have demonstrated key principles of the Redskins that are necessary to have a respectable remainder of the year.

If the Redskins win, it will be the result of a consistent running game out of Ladell Betts, which means good offensive line play. Jason Campbell will have made quick decisions in the pocket and made the most of the few passes he attempted.

The Redskins defensive line is not likely to find great success against the Cowboy offensive line, but there will be opportunities for the secondary to exploit Mr. Erratic Tony Romo. Pressure from the defensive backs and Brian Orakpo seem to be the most obvious order for greatness, but we’ve seen the obvious turn oblivious real fast with these ‘Skins.

Suffice it to say, the game won’t be a gimme for Washington.

But there is more than a legitimate chance for this team to get a much-needed divisional road win, and the confidence to face the remainder of the murderer’s row schedule. And who knows; for a team that can run off six-game streaks in either direction, it could be the start of something ‘Skins fans could hang their hopes on.

Or at least, a few cleverly-critical signs.

Technorati Tags: Dallas Cowboys , Washington Redskins

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Halladay and Granderson Perfect Fits as Chicago Cubs—Neither Likely to Be One

Jack Stentwiller — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 20:20:06 -0500

Rumors ran wild this past week about the potential of the Cubs trading for Roy Halladay or Curtis Granderson.

What is sad is that the Cubs have the highest payroll in the league, and both of these players are going to be considered too expensive.

What's worse? Both of these players would fulfill enormous needs for the Cubs. In fact, they are the two biggest needs of the current Cub team.

Despite the Milton Bradley experiment, the Cubs lineup is still extremely right handed and more lefties should be targeted. Granderson would be a perfect fit. Although he does not have great OBP numbers, he does have experience at the top of the lineup and fills a need in CF.

He is also the "anti-Bradley", in the sense that he is a great clubhouse guy, Chicago native, and only 28-years old.

While I would categorize the likelihood of Granderson becoming a Cub as unlikely, Halladay coming to the Northside falls somewhere between pigs flying and Sammy Sosa turning into a white guy (wait, maybe that is a bad example). Regardless it is very unlikely.

Timing is everything. The Cubs were big spenders when they needed SP depth and corner outfielders. Two expensive dissapointments and Ted Lilly later, the Cubs are locked into expensive, long term contracts with players on the wrong side of 30.

What are their needs now? A frontline starter and CF/leadoff man. There are two for the taking, but the Cubs cannot afford to be spenders after swinging and missing on Bradley, Fukudome, and Soriano.

It is disappointing. It is, however, what happens when you make mistakes on free agents. The Yankees did it, and it took getting Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, etc. off the books before they could make another run.

The Cubs are in the same boat. It is time for fans to be patient. This team is seriously flawed in places, but it is going to take clearing some bad contracts before the team is able to seriously address their needs.

Maybe when Halladay and Granderson are even older and on the free-agent market, the Cubs can overspend for multiple years for them then. Until then, we have to keep dreaming.

Timing is everything, and the timing simply does not work in the Cubs favor in the short term. Halladay and Granderson will help other ballclubs.

The 2010 Cubs will look an awful lot like the 2009 Cubs.

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Say What? Chicago Cubs Sign John Grabow to Two-Year, $7.5 Million Deal

Adam Bernacchio — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:07:30 -0500

There is always talk amongst baseball fans and writers in regards to who is the worst general manager in baseball.

Dayton Moore of the Kansas City Royals and Omar Minaya of the New York Mets are usually at the top of that conversation. Well, I think we can add one more GM to the conversation: Jim Hendry of the Chicago Cubs.

I really have no idea what he is doing in Chicago. Latest example: Hendry re-signed left-handed reliever John Grabow to a two-year, $7.5 million extension.

Are you kidding?

I am sure Grabow is a nice guy, and I love the fact that he represented the USA in the World Baseball Classic. But the reality is, he is not even worth half of what Hendry gave him.

Grabow will be 32-years-old next year and his WHIP and hits/9 increased from 2008 to 2009 and his K/9 went down from 2008 to 2009. It’s never a good sign when a pitcher is giving up more hits and striking out less.

Here is how overpaid Grabow will be. Throughout his career, which spans sevens years, Grabow has been worth around $5.3 million.

Hendry is paying Grabow $7.5 million for the next two.

I have no idea what Hendry is trying to accomplish in Chicago. If it is throwing as much money at players as he possibly can, he has accomplished that.

Unfortunately for Hendry and Cubs fans, throwing money around doesn’t win championships. Bringing in quality players and quality people do.

Who knows what Hendry is going to do next. Maybe he will bring back Kevin Gregg on a two-year, $20 million deal.

That would be par for the course with Hendry.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Milton Bradley: What's His Trade Worth?

Adam Bernacchio — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:41:32 -0500

On Jan. 6, 2009, Chicago Cubs GM Jim Hendry signed outfielder Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million contract.

At that point everyone screamed “Nooooooooooooo!!!” This was a disaster waiting to happen, and it did happen.

Not only did Bradley grossly underperform in a Cubs’ uniform, but on Sept. 20, Bradley was suspended for the rest of the season because of conduct detrimental to the team.

“Recently, it’s become intolerable to hear Milton talk about our great fans the way he has,” Hendry said. “We pride ourselves on having the greatest fans in baseball, so at this time we felt it was best to send him home for the rest of the season.”

Now, almost one year later, Hendry is looking to ship Bradley out of town. Who would possibly take on Bradley and his contract?

Let’s take a look at the pros and the cons of Bradley and what teams would be interested in trading for the beleaguered outfielder.

Pros

If there is one thing that has been consistent with Bradley’s play on the field throughout his career, it’s that the man knows how to work the count.

Bradley had a .378 on base percentage in 2009, which ranked him fifth amongst all major league right fielders. For his career, Bradley has a .377 OBP including leading the American League in OBP with a .436 mark with the Texas Rangers in 2008.

And while Bradley’s overall numbers were down in 2009, there was a period in the season where Bradley was doing what he was brought in to do—hit the baseball. From May 1 through Aug. 31, Bradley hit .281 with a .402 OBP.

He had his best month in August when he hit .308 with a .911 OPS.

Bradley is also only 31 years old, doesn’t it seem like Bradley should be older than that? I feel like he has been around forever.

But at 31, Bradley should still have a lot left in the tank.

Cons

Where do I begin? Outside of his one year in Texas, Bradley has been a problem everywhere he has been.

You name the place and you can name an incident where Bradley has costs himself a long-term contract. There is a reason why this guy hasn’t been on a team for longer than two years.

Not only does Bradley have a tough time staying on one team, but he has a hard time staying on the field once he is on that team. The most games he has played in one season is 141 with the Los Angeles Dodgers back in 2004.

He is an injury waiting to happen and of course, there is the issue of his contract. Bradley has two years and $21 million remaining on his contract. Is a team really going to take on that salary and have the risk of Bradley losing his mind 50 games into the season?

Now that we looked at the pros and cons of Bradley, let’s take a look at what teams would be interested in trading for the former Expo, Indian, Dodger, A, Padre, and Ranger.

Texas Rangers: The one place where Bradley really thrived was Texas. There has been a lot of talk recently of a reunion between Bradley and the Rangers.

Texas is a perfect place for Bradley. There is no pressure, the fans really don’t care, and Bradley can just come to the ball park and attempt to play baseball.

Bradley could serve as the Rangers’ DH, while Nelson Cruz plays left, Julio Borbon plays center, and Josh Hamilton plays right.

Tampa Bay Rays: There was talk earlier in this offseason of a Bradley for Pat Burrell swap. Outside of trading down year for down year, I really didn’t understand the trade for either team.

Burrell is less of a headache than Bradley and is more than capable of having a bounce-back-year in 2010.

And while Tampa is another good spot for Bradley to go (see Rangers above), Bradley would also present an upgrade in right field over Gabe Gross, but I just don’t see it happening.

Outside of those two destinations, I am not sure what team would have an interest in Bradley. Hendry has really dug himself a hole with Bradley.

However, I am going to say there is a 75 percent chance of the Cubs trading him just because they have to. I don’t think there is any way they can bring him back in 2010.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Cincinnati Reds Report Cards: Scott Rolen

Cliff Eastham — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:39:47 -0500

While Scott Rolen is still in the "honeymoon" stage with the Reds, I will be evaluating him on a 40-game season.

His hitting is better than average, which should be expected for a .284 lifetime hitter. He didn't exhibit the power that I was so hopeful he would. Three home runs in a quarter of the season make it elementary enough to do the math; 12 home runs would not cut it for a corner infielder. He had a decent OBP as well at .364.

With the leather, we saw precisely what everyone in baseball has been accustomed to witnessing. He played error-free ball while with the Reds, as well as making a few very nice gems.

Rolen is a good presence in the clubhouse and an intangible source of guidance to this squad. He is in the twilight of his career, so hopefully he will have a few good years left and will be able to hang up the spikes while still close to home (Jasper, IN).

He is an asset to an infield that is one shortstop away from being comparable to any other team. We had to mortgage the house in order to find room on the payroll to welcome him to the Queen City. We gave up on a couple pitchers with possible stars on their horizon.

A good solid job for a brief stint. His final mark for 2009 is a B+.

Next up: Jonny Gomes

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Ray of Hope?: Cubs' Milton Bradley Could Be Tampa-Bound

Matt Trueblood — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:45:39 -0500

The Chicago Cubs took the first concrete steps toward crystallizing their team in 2010 today, trading right-handed pitcher Aaron Heilman and re-signing would-be free agent John Grabow.

Those steps were preliminary, though, and general manager Jim Hendry knows that in order to make more drastic and necessary changes, he must first resolve the single most dauntingly enigmatic question that faces Chicago during this offseason: To whom will Hendry send outfielder Milton Bradley?

USA Today reports that the most likely answer is the same one it might have been this time last year, when Bradley was a free agent being courted by a half-dozen teams: Tampa Bay.

Tampa, led by supremely confident manager Joe Maddon, fits for multiple reasons. Firstly, they offer a relatively low-pressure environment, in which Bradley can rest assured he won't be turned upon at the first sign of failure.

Second, Bradley fits the team's philosophy, which focuses on batters getting on base and staying patient. Even during his ostensibly awful 2009, he managed 66 walks and a .378 on-base percentage in 473 plate appearances.

Thirdly, Tampa has a bad contract to exchange with Chicago. Pat Burrell, the erstwhile Phillies slugger who in 2009 fell short of 20 home runs (he had 14) for the first time since his rookie season in 2000, has played left field almost exclusively during his 10-year career.

However, Burrell (who is owed $9 million for 2010, the same figure as Bradley, though his contract expires thereafter while Bradley's goes for another season at $12 million) has the kind of hitting profile Hendry has said he wants as protection for Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Burrell and Bradley would be about a dead-even exchange, with the Cubs likely paying the Rays most of Bradley's 2011 salary.

Other options exist: Tampa may not have the money to vie for free-agent closers but need a relief ace to shore up a bullpen that went from among the best in the league in 2008 to among the worst in 2009. Chicago could try to package Bradley with incumbent closer Carlos Marmol in order to acquire Carl Crawford (owed $10.5 million in 2010) as a leadoff hitter and center fielder.

In all likelihood, though, a trade to the Rays would have to involve Burrell. That can be good or bad for Chicago; it would, or will, depend upon what else Hendry does. Slotting Burrell into right field and keeping Kosuke Fukudome in center is not an option; it's defensively untenable. Someone would have to slide somewhere else on the diamond.

Burrell is the best candidate. He played 58 games at first base in his rookie year, though he has so far not returned. Chicago could look to trade first baseman Lee, who is owed $13 million for next season and whom they would then have to convince to waive his no-trade clause.

Lee, however, has sky-high market value this winter, especially to a team like the New York Mets, who need a first baseman but won't find a satisfactory one in the free agent pool.

If that second move went off, the Cubs could afford to shop the free agent and trade markets for a center fielder who could hit anywhere from first to fifth in the lineup, opening up Detroit's Curtis Granderson and free agents Mike Cameron and Chone Figgins as options.

Most importantly, though, if the Cubs can get rid of Bradley with as little of Bradley's 2010 salary on their books, Hendry will have succeeded in getting the offseason going in the right direction for the North Siders.

If it hasn't happened by then, keep an eye on this story around the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis Dec. 7-10.

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