Bleacher Report - Portland Trail Blazers

Evaluating Greg Oden in His Real Rookie Year

Brian D. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:38:51 -0500

If you think about it, this is really Greg Oden’s rookie year.

That may seem strange, since he was drafted two years ago and actually played last season. However, when it comes to evaluating his potential as a young player, he’s really a rookie.

After all, this is the first time Greg has gone into an NBA season after having an entire summer to work on his game. For that matter, it’s really the first time he’s been able to work on his game in any off-season since the summer after his junior year in high school. That was 2005.

Remember, Oden had off-season surgery on his right wrist in June of 2006. He had surgery on his knee in the summer of 2007, and wasn’t cleared to play basketball until just a few weeks before the 2008 training camp. He wasn’t even cleared to run until just a few weeks before that.

Looking back at last year, there is no way anyone should have expected anything from a young player, especially a big man, who had literally not played basketball for 13 months, and who had literally gone three years without being able to work on his game in the off-season.

Imagine a young tenor making his debut in La Bohéme at the Metropolitan Opera after having gone three years without vocal studies. Imagine a rock band going on tour without having rehearsed the songs from a debut album they recorded 13 months before. Imagine Tiger Woods returning from a year off following surgery to play a Major Tournament, and having only 144 holes to prepare. Only in this case, imagine it’s Tiger’s first year on the Tour.

Those situations are roughly equivalent to what Greg went through last year.

So if we're looking at Greg Oden as a rookie, what are we seeing so far?

For starters, we're seeing a player who is averaging close to a double-double in only 24 minutes per game. That's right: Oden is scoring 9.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game despite limited minutes.

Furthemore, Oden is already very close to being the best defensive player in the NBA. Seriously. Oden is leading the league in blocks at 31, block percentage at 7.6, and in defensive rating at 91.8. He is also fourth in the league in defensive win shares at 0.9, and is fifth in the NBA in blocks per game at 2.4 rejections per contest. Again: he is doing all while playing only 24 minutes per game. When Greg Oden is in the game, he is a force of nature on the defensive end. Pure and simple.

He is also among the best rebounders in the NBA, leading the league in total rebounding percentage, is fifth in Defensive Rebound Percentage and eighth in offensive rebound percentage. His rebounds per minute ratio has been near the top of the league this year and last year, with teammate Joel Przybilla as one of his only real challengers.

Offensively, Oden is still quite raw. However, he has made great strides since last year. He has revealed the ability to hit a short jumper, though not with regularity, and has improved both his hook shot and his up-and-under move. He has also improved both his field goal percentage (fourth in the NBA at 59.6%) and his free throw percentage (up to a very respectable 75%). He is getting more shot opportunities, and scoring on them more often.

Strangely, his points per 36 minutes ratio is actually down from a year ago, largely because he is getting less than half as many free throw attempts. This could be a statistical fluke that will even itself out, or it could be due to changes in the Blazers offensive style. It's too early to tell.

Overall, if this were truly Oden's rookie year, and the last two years had never happened, I think most basketball experts would be very impressed with him. His biggest issue is (and remains) his ability to stay on the floor. He continues to lead the league in fouls, and this limits his minutes. Moreover, Nate McMillan is keeping Oden on a very tight leash when it comes to playing time. Once Greg picks up his second foul, he sits the rest of the first half. The Blazers are able to get away with this because they have the best backup center in the NBA in Joel Przybilla.

However, there is no question that Oden has tremendous impact when he is on the floor, and his productivity is staggering. If he were playing regular starter’s minutes (36 per game), his numbers suggest he would produce 14.1 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. Of course, the scoring would be even higher if he was getting to the line more often, perhaps 16-17 points per game.

So then, to ask the ultimate question: how do we judge Oden at this stage? Was he worth a number 1 pick?

Well, his numbers prove he has the potential to average 16 or 17 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks while shooting 59.6% from the field and 75% from the line, and while being rated as the No. 1 defensive player in the NBA.

Of course, when I say he has the potential to do this, I don’t mean he might develop into the kind of player who is capable of doing this. I mean he already is the kind of player who is capable of doing this. He just isn’t staying on the floor long enough for the numbers to show up.

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Bill Simmons' Signing

Busta Bucket — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:51:31 -0500

With nothing else to do last night, I decided to brave the traffic on highway 26 and head out to the Borders in Beaverton to experience the Bill Simmons book signing. Kudos to Borders for doing a great job of managing the event. It was difficult to estimate the number of people in attendance because everyone was so spread out, but it was a great turn out. I'd guess there was somewhere between 800 and 1,300 people.

Simmons came out before the signing to briefly address the crowd. He responded to some of the issues that he has heard recently from Blazer fans. A few of the things he addressed:

* He immediately acknowledged his mistake in predicting that the Blazers would go 41-41 this year. He said he had to decide between Portland and New Orleans as the team that might fall back a little this year and he chose wrong.
* He discussed his experience at the Blazers/Pistons game on Thursday (his first game at the Rose Garden), noting that we have what he believes to be the only arena in the league that doesn't play rap music during the intros.
* He questioned the three guard lineup and asked us if we liked it. I yelled, "No!" He said he's always been a "play your best five players" guy. I agree.
* He said he enjoyed the game, the atmosphere was good, it got tense when Steve Blake made "about 10 turnovers in the fourth quarter" before sinking the big three at the end.
* Someone yelled, "Drexler's Pistons!", bringing up the typo that was in his book. He said he thinks he had typed in Isiah Thomas' Pistons, wanted to change it to Drexler's Blazers and then he obviously failed to change the Pistons part.

He came off as very likeable. It was a fun event and he obliged when I asked him to write a special message in my book:

UPDATE: From Bill Simmons' twitter account following the signing:

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Blazers-Warriors: Game 14 Preview

Busta Bucket — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:17:43 -0500

Golden State Warriors coverage at Fear the Beard.

Blazers

Analysis

Warriors

Andre Miller has been a bit inconsistent lately. Some days he's scoring, others he's dishing out the assists. Tonight he'll be matched up against a solid young rookie in Stephen Curry. Curry has averaged just under 14 points and five assists per game in his past three games. His size and ability to play point make him a tough matchup in the NBA. Tonight, however, I like Andre to win the point guard battle.

Monte Ellis has been heating up lately. In his past four games he's averaged more than 22 points per game. He's an impossible matchup for Portland. Steve Blake and Andre Miller can't guard his quickness. He's going to torch us, and with Raja Bell around to defend Brandon Roy or Rudy Fernandez, the Warrior shooting guards win the matchup.

Brandon Roy has been struggling a bit with his role for Portland. This is new territory for the star. There's only one thing he needs to think about against G.S., and that is to score the ball. I suspect Raja Bell will work on him, at least at times, but if he can, against a team that likes to run, Roy should have a nice night. As far as Golden State goes, Vladimir Radmonovic has started two games and been mediocre, and Anthony Morrow torched the Blazers last year. This matchup should be interesting. Hopefully Martell Webster steps it up.

LaMarcus Aldridge and Juwan Howard take on the very young Anthony Morrow and the crafty Corey Maggette. LaMarcus always has problems with Maggette, from flopping to drawing weak blocking fouls. Corey somehow has a side deal with all NBA refs. I suspect we'll see some of that tonight. Anthony Randolph gets inside and hits the boards, so Aldridge needs to work the interior as well. G.S. wins this battle.

This game became winnable as soon as I realized Andris Biedrins was still out of the lineup. Golden State's depth at center is terrible; I can't even figure out who would backup the career backup, Mikki Moore. I like Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden both tonight. They will be the difference in this contest. Hopefully they can stay out of foul trouble as I suspect Maggette, Ellis, and Raja will work Oden for cheap fouls. Blazers win here for the first time nine tries.

Overall Winner:

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Game 13: Blazers 87, Pistons 81

Busta Bucket — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:07:40 -0500

Box Score

The Blazers nearly blew a 20-point advantage in the second half to a very mediocre Detroit Pistons team last night. The lead dwindled down to one before some clutch free throw shooting by Andre Miller and Steve Blake put the game away.

During the hideously played fourth quarter, a glaring Portland weakness was exposed by Piston's coach John Kuester. The comeback began as Kuester, recognizing that the man in charge of bringing the ball up the court was Steve Blake, implemented a full court press. With Blake leading the charge most of the way, the Blazers had a difficult time of handling the pressure, turning the ball over and missing hurried shots. It wasn't until Andre Miller-who earned a huge amount of respect from anyone watching the replays of him turning both of his ankles and continuing to play-hobbled back into the game to restore order.

I have always liked Steve Blake. He's a great guy and he works hard. But I'm also a realist and I understand that he just can't hack it against quality opponents or in pressure situations. He's a liability. Yes he had 17 points last night and he hit a huge three that gave Portland enough of a cushion to pull this win out, but he was the main reason the Blazers allowed a 20 point lead to get to one.

Even if it's an ugly win, you obviously take it. But frankly, the Blazers have looked ugly all year long. These grind-it-out, poor shooting games with Brandon taking a back seat have been hard to watch. Even after wins I find myself feeling rather bland. They are beating the teams they are supposed to beat but they are not looking all that great in the process. They have shown flashes of good play, but they have yet to put together a complete game. Add a few key injuries into the mix and it raises a bit of concern. Maybe they'll pull it together, but if this early chunk of games is any indication of what lies ahead, we can expect to wait another year to make it to the conference finals.

Unclutch freethrow shooting
Nearly blowing a 20-point lead
Blake's inability to run the team in crunch time
Martell continues terrible play

Another win
Andre Miller not letting two turned ankles bother him
20-points apiece from Brandon and LaMarcus
Rudy staying active

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Portland Trailblazers-Detroit Pistons: Brandon Roy Needs Help in the Fourth

Drew Barton — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 05:23:00 -0500

The excitement in the air was palpable. These Blazers were coming off a 4-1 road trip that included a road win over the Hornets. In some ways, that brought relief.

After all, the season got off to a rugged start with two home losses that both ended in heart-breaking fashion. Unlike last year when every close game was closed out by Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Joel Przybilla, and Steve Blake in victorious fashion, the losses to Atlanta and Denver felt like chokes.

That is not a word normally associated with Brandon Roy's Blazers and the murmuring had been getting loud.

This year's Blazer edition was expected to contend, not give away games. With Roy and Aldridge coming off major contract extensions, Greg Oden expected to be more like the player drafted than last year's surgery-slowed big man, and the return of Martell Webster from injury, all the pieces were in place.

The road trip went a long way towards leading the fan base to think that this was the team we thought we had. Time for the tip-off.

Suddenly, everything was clicking. Detroit was staying in the game, but once more we saw Aldridge asserting himself.

Detroit briefly took the lead, only to see Portland go on a 13-0 run. The fans settled back, ready to watch the Blazers take advantage of their superior skills and home court advantage to reel in a blowout victory.

There were fast breaks, some premier defense, and a heavy dose of Blazer Stars with Aldridge and Roy scoring with regularity.

By the end of the third quarter, it was a comfortable 20-point lead. Time to sit back and enjoy the show.

And there we find the difference between this year's team and last year's. This team has expectations. This team knows how good it is. The players know they are favorites to win almost every time out. Unless, of course, they stop working.

Suddenly the guards could not keep the ball. Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez took turns making turnovers that were highly uncharacteristic. Then Steve Blake went to work.

His four turnover fourth quarter was the antithesis of expectations. The book on Blake is "steady point guard, doesn't make mistakes". The reality, at least for this game, was he looked panic-stricken, out-matched, and incapable of holding on to the ball.

Then Andre Miller managed to miss four consecutive free throws as the Pistons inched ever closer. It left him feeling lonely.

By the time the Pistons got within one point with about a minute to go, Blazer fans were stunned and fearful. Were they about to see a third consecutive come-from-ahead home loss? What happened to this team that for two seasons thrived on pressure and tight games?

It did not help that when Blake clanked a rushed open jumper, there was a vast in-drawn breath from the entire stadium...only to see the ball bounce straight back to Blake who then drained a three that all but sealed it.

So what is happening with this Blazer team? Even with Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw out with injuries, this is a team even more talented than the 54-28 team we watched last year. How did a team that thrived under pressure degenerate into a turnover-making, free throw-bricking, error-prone bunch of vulnerabilities?

It starts in an unexpected place. Not with two-time All-Star Brandon Roy. Not with new starter Greg Oden. And, despite some murmurings about his "slow start", not with LaMarcus Aldridge.

It starts with Steve Blake.

Often maligned by Blazer fans for his Blake-fense deficiencies, his lack of ability to penetrate, and his modest assist totals, the more dedicated basketball fans understand what Blake brings to the team.

He relieves Roy of the tedious chore of bringing the ball up court. He gets the team into its offensive sets and keeps the team rhythm going. He gets out of the way when it is time for Roy to handle the ball. He hits key shots, stretches the defense with timely and efficient three point shooting, and does not turn the ball over.

Until crunch time.

For the first time in his career, Blake is a bigger liability on the offensive end. It is possible he is feeling the pressure of sharing time with Andre Miller. It is possible and indeed even probable he will get his groove back.

But it is also a fact that he is not performing the role we are used to seeing him perform.

Exacerbating this is the fact the Blazers' second best— and being second best is not by much— fourth quarter player for the last three years has been Travis Outlaw. Game after game he struggles for three quarters, then turns into Supertrout in the fourth. He scores at will. He makes huge defensive stops. He scores again. And again.

Except now he is on the shelf for the next few months. Aldridge has never been a big-time late game player, at least to this point. Oden is still trying to shake off two missed free throws that he (incorrectly) feels meant a Blazer defeat. Miller is a train wreck at late-game pressure shots.

That means the games rest on Roy's shoulders. It would be fine if he had that second guy the opponents had to key on such as he had with Outlaw last year. Without that, other teams can double and even triple team Roy, taking the ball out of his hands.

That puts it in the hands of Miller, whom teams foul expecting him to miss one free throw (and instead watch him miss both), or Blake, who seems to be trying to be Miller, driving into trouble, panicking, and passing it to the nearest fan.

It is easily correctable. First, the Blazers need to be ready to shoot when they get the ball. Fernandez provided a glimpse of that with his trey that extended the Hawk game to overtime. But outside of Roy and Fernandez, there is a noticeable reticence to shoot.

That must be corrected.

Until it is, Blazer fans will not need nail clippers...their teeth will be doing their fingernail grooming for the foreseeable future.

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Travis Outlaw Out 3-5 Months

Busta Bucket — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:14:53 -0500

Okay, so we've got good news and bad news. The good news is Travis had successful surgery on his foot today. The bad news, he's out 3-5 months. Three to five MONTHS!?

The team hasn't given out any more information, but obviously it was more of an issue then we initially though. Here's the release:

TRAVIS OUTLAW UNDERGOES FOOT SURGERY

PORTLAND, Ore. - Trail Blazers forward Travis Outlaw underwent successful surgery to repair a stress fracture of the fifth metatarsal bone in his left foot, the Portland Trail Blazers announced today. He is expected to be sidelined for three to five months.

In 11 games this season, Outlaw averaged 9.9 points (37.6% FG, 38.7% 3-PT, 87.5% FT), 3.5 rebounds and 0.7 assists in 21.0 minutes. He scored in double figures four times and led Portland's bench in scoring on five occasions.

Dr. Jay Crary performed the surgery at Southwest Washington Regional Surgery Center in Vancouver, Wash.

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Game 13: Blazers vs. Pistons, 7:00pm CSN

Busta Bucket — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:52:33 -0500

Detroit Pistons coverage at Need 4 Sheed .

Blazers

Analysis

Pistons

The Detroit Piston have a surprisingly good one-two punch at point guard. Rodney Stuckey (17ppg) and Will Bynum (14ppg) are both very capable of scoring but not especially good at distributing. We'll have to work hard to stop these guys offensively but I like Andre Miller in this game thanks to his veteran mentality. Bayless probably needs to get some run just for defensive purposes. I'm going with the Piston tandem.

With Rip Hamilton out, Ben Gordon gets full time duties at shooting guard (22.4ppg). He's very short for a shooting guard which bodes well for Portland's three guard starting line-up. Steve Blake has no chance of stopping him though. This could be a struggle. Will Bynum will also back-up Gordon, and as I said, he's a great scorer. I just hope Rudy and Steve can spread the floor and hit their shots to make these Pistons work hard defensively.

Brandon Roy had a relatively tough time in Atlanta on Monday. The Hawks focused in and held him under 20 points. Tonight they'll throw different guys at him but I see Roy being successful no matter what. The very lanky Austin Daye (Go Zags!) and much bigger Jonas Jarebko will try to defend our all-star. I just hope Martell will keep rounding into game shape, he hasn't looked quite right yet.

LaMarcus has been a bit inconsistent in his play this year; offensively he's hot and cold but the effort on the boards seems to be there. Tonight is a great opportunity for 20 and 10 at home. Charlie Villanueva is usually a machine in the scoring department (16.7ppg), so I expect him to score plenty. But the combination of LA and Howard should be enough tonight.

Greg Oden played well throughout the last 5-game road trip. He was confident and I think he'll finally bring that little bit of swagger back to Portland. With the aging Ben Wallace in the game, he'll be dealing with a tough defender but he should be able to rebound the heck out of the ball. I also like Przybilla to destroy the worst number one pick of all time in Kwame Brown. Blazers get this win at home!

Overall Winner:

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Do You Want to Win Tickets to a Blazers/Laker game on Jan. 8?

Busta Bucket — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:48:01 -0500

I just got an e-mail from Matt Webber who works for a local Oregon non-profit called the Archimedes Movement which was founded by former Gov. John Kitzhaber.

Here's what Matt had to say:

We worked with the Blazers Organization to arrange tickets for the Jan. 8th Lakers/Blazers [game] to use as a promotional fundraiser tool on our website.

We've got 5 pairs of tickets to the game that are 100-level seats. For just $10, individuals can enter our raffle to win one of these pairs of Blazer tickets. And these are 100-level seats, just a few rows up from the court. Winners will be announced on Dec. 16th. You may even have a "special guest" sitting with you in the section. Plus the proceeds go to help the Archimedes Movement.

Head over to the Web site to buy your raffle tickets. The good news for you oddsmakers out there is that only 999 total tickets can be sold. So the chances of winning Blazer tickets are relatively high. It's also for a good cause. What are you waiting for? Buy one now like I just did.

Buy Now!

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Portland Trail Blazers' Owner Paul Allen Diagnosed with Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma

Busta Bucket — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:44:55 -0500

It was announced yesterday that Portland Trail Blazers and Seattle Seahawks owner Paul Allen has been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins Lymphoma. In a memo to the employees at Vulcan, Allen's sister had this to say about the situation:

Paul is feeling OK and remains upbeat, he continues to work and he has no plans to change his role at Vulcan. His health comes first, though, and we'll be sure that nothing intrudes on that.

Allen has dealt with cancer before. In 1983 he beat cancer and he will do it again. It's a sad thing to hear this news and we wish him all the best as he takes on this monumental health challenge.

The news really makes you reflect on how much Allen means to this organization and the city of Portland. Since buying the team in 1988, he's been nothing but the best owner in all of sports. He's perfect for the city and has always done everything he can to make the Trail Blazers successful. He's also been one of the Blazers biggest fans.

Once again, our thoughts are with Paul Allen and his family as he takes on cancer for the second time.

John Canzano also has a great piece on Paul Allen at Oregon Live .

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Blazers-Hawks: Portland Sends It to OT, but Atlanta Sends Them Home

Busta Bucket — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:41:08 -0500

The first competitive game in over a week proved that you have to play all 48 minutes, or in tonight's game, 53 minutes.

The Blazers fell to the Hawks 99-95 in Atlanta, after a hard fought battle and a frustrating overtime.

In the previous four games on the road, the Blazers started off shooting poorly, and in most cases, so did their opponent. Tonight it was the exact opposite as the Hawks and Blazers were firing on all cylinders. The Blazers took an early 28-20 first quarter lead with a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Rudy Fernandez.

Throughout the first three quarters, despite the Blazers leading by double-digit points, there was a feeling that Atlanta could make their comeback at any moment. After a stagnant and offensively deficient third quarter, the Hawks made their move.

Starting in the fourth quarter, the perfect storm took place and Atlanta finally started to heat up.

The Blazers got sloppy, turned the ball over and, with opportunities to take advantage, didn't come through. Brandon Roy bailed out Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez bailed out Steve Blake. Regulation ended with Rudy hitting a ridiculous buzzer-beating three to send the game into overtime.

It's a shame we even needed that.

With a nine-point lead to start the fourth quarter, the Blazers needed to finish the game—even on the road. Rudy's three seemed like it would give Portland momentum going into the overtime period, but no such luck.

Overtime was much worse than the score would indicate.

Atlanta went on a devastating 12-4 run and basically sealed the game. There were three brutal calls in a row that also put the nail in the coffin. I will never truly understand NBA officiating. Part of me will always think there is more to it then just making the call. Tim Donaghy has forever entered my consciousness.

Either way, the Blazers lost a tough one on the road. The reality right now is Atlanta just looks slightly better than Portland. The Hawks are more athletic, more driven to crash the boards, showed resiliency when jumpers weren't going in, and most of all they finish games.

This Atlanta Hawks team is very talented; I think they're talented enough to beat just about any team in the East. We almost stole one, but it wasn't meant to be in Atlanta.

Box Score

Getting out rebounded 47-37.
Losing a huge lead in the fourth quarter.
Turning the ball over and missing key shots at crucial points in the game.

Rudy Fernandez filling in nicely for Outlaw with 19 points and four rebounds on 7-of-12 shooting.
Andre Miller and Steve Blake playing well together—22 points and 16 assists combined.
LaMarcus and Brandon both showing up at critical moments.

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Game 12: Blazers @ Hawks, 4:00pm CSN

Busta Bucket — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 10:59:27 -0500

Tonight marks the end of Portland's first long road trip. It's been very successful so far (4-0) but the toughest test will undoubtedly be tonight it Atlanta.

These Atlanta Hawks are playing incredibly well right now. They destroyed the Nuggets about a week ago and have now won 4 straight games by 10 or more points for the first time since 1999.

The addition of Jamal Crawford has to be the biggest part of this great start for Atlanta. They were good before, but adding a quality guard like Crawford who is willing to come off the bench is incredible.

If Portland tries to stop Crawford, Joe Johnson may just show up and kill us. This will need to be a full team effort tonight. With Travis Outlaw out, the offense needs to come from other places. Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless will most certainly be asked to step up.

Atlanta Hawks coverage at Hoopinion and Peachtree Hoops .

Blazers

Analysis

Hawks

Andre Miller has played well on the current 5-game road trip. The Blazers have played weak opponents so far but this game will be a huge test. I consider Andre and Mike Bibby to be fairly close skill-wise as point guards right now. The problem is that the Hawks are running a three guard rotation where Jamal Crawford runs point and plays shooting guard. Crawford has been brilliant as a back-up and he killed Portland two weeks ago. They'll get us here.

I'm not totally convinced the Blazers will do the three guard starting line-up tonight. They face bigger, more physical guards in Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford. I can't see Steve Blake matching up at all. Joe wasn't particularly great in Portland but I have a feeling he'll be stellar tonight. He and Crawford will fill it up offensively, let's hope Steve and Rudy can hit their threes to keep Portland in this game.

Brandon Roy will be counted on in a big way during this game. The Hawks have talent at every position but Roy can exploit a major mismatch here with Marvin Williams. Roy is quicker and more skilled, and should have an excellent all around evening. With Martell doing clean-up work as the back-up small forward, I like our chances here.

I made the mistake of picking Josh Smith out right to beat LaMarcus Aldridge in Portland. Both are great players, but Josh Smith has a tendency to disappear. I think he'll be good at home but I like LaMarcus exploiting the Hawks by spreading out the defense and hitting his signature jumper. We'll need Aldridge on the boards tonight too, and I think he'll come through. It's a tough choice here, but I'm going with Aldridge.

Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla were out worked by Horford and Pachulia in the previous match-up. The Hawks tandem is very good, especially on the boards. I like the advances Greg has made on the road and Prz continues to be so consistent in his role as the back-up center. Our centers must out rebound the Hawks centers if we want to have a chance in this game. The Blazers want revenge, but this Atlanta team is playing too well right now. I can't see Portland winning without a heroic effort from every Blazer player.

Overall Winner:

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The Impact of Travis Outlaw's Injury

Busta Bucket — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 19:58:46 -0500

By now, you know that Travis Outlaw was injured in last night's game. He has a stress fracture to his fifth metatarsal of his foot. Martell had the same injury last year and it will be interesting to see if the Blazers are extra careful with bringing him back after the eight weeks timetable.

There's a lot more to this story, as it relates to the way people see this affecting the team. Since last night I've gotten the feeling that some Blazer fans think this injury may actually help the team. Is it possible that losing one of our top scorers off the bench would actually help the Blazers?

There are fans out there who believe this to be true.

More then any other Blazer player, there is a strong divide about the impact Travis Outlaw has on this organization. We all love his occasional high-flying dunk and flashes of athleticism. We also love his unconscious ability to hit a big shot in a clutch situation. Travis has no fear and appears to feel no pressure.

There is good and there is bad when it comes to Travis. The bad would be his reliance on the jump shot, poor shot selection and inconsistency when it comes to rebounding and staying focused during a game. These are the kinds of things that drive people crazy. People like me.

I've always considered Travis to be a pivotal part of team chemistry and a great player to have come off the bench. When the team is struggling offensively, he is capable of getting hot and turning things around. He's also capable of ruining offensive rhythm by taking ill-advised or just plain ridiculous shots. It's tough to tell how his loss will impact the team.

For the next 30 or so games, we're going to find out what Travis means to the Blazers. I know some people are glad he's out (hopefully not wishing injury), while others see this as a major loss.

I come out somewhere in the middle on this. For one thing, I really like Travis as a person. He's great for the team, and as I said, provides offense off the bench. In the NBA, it's vital to have guys on the bench who are capable of scoring on their own. Stagnant offense happens, and Travis is a guy who can break through team shooting slumps.

I am also curious to see what happens over the next few months. Part of the reason the Blazers have so much depth is for injuries. If anything, this gives other capable players an opportunity to contribute and prove their worth. I'm happy to see Juwan Howard get more time at power forward and this situation also allows the three guard starting lineup to continue without a hitch.

Not only that, but Rudy Fernandez stands to benefit in the playing time department.

I've always wanted the best for Travis. I want him to succeed on this Blazers team, but his evolution as a player seems to be stymied. If you asked someone without knowledge of Travis' career, how many years he's played in the league, they'd most likely think he's a second or third year guy.

That assessment would be based on his decision making, his relatively low basketball IQ and just the way he can roam aimlessly on defense or look out of place during a game.

It's not an attack, it's just the truth. Whenever Outlaw plays within himself, he's a great contributor. But shooting 1-for-9 or 2-for-13 from the field is devastating against good teams. Bad missed shots are like turnovers. I hope Travis heals quickly, but my internal jury is still out on whether it's good or bad losing him in the rotation.

I may end up being totally wrong about this, and in some ways I hope I am. It could be, "you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone."

So where do you come out on this? Are the Blazers better, worse, or no different without Travis in the lineup?

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Travis Outlaw Breaks Foot, Same Injury Martell Had Last Year

Busta Bucket — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 23:31:45 -0500

In tonight's victory in Charlotte, the Blazers suffered a major personnel loss. Travis Outlaw has a stress fracture to his fifth metatarsal, which is the same injury Martell Webster had last season. We all know how that went.

The injury happened on a relatively normal play, he was coming out to defend Gerald Wallace and planted his foot when Wallace went to the hoop.

This is a critical loss considering Travis' status as the third or fourth scoring option. Not only that, but the Blazers are thin enough with depth in the front court. Jason Quick sums up the situation nicely:

X-Rays revealed a stress fracture of the fifth metatarsal...the small bone on top of the foot near the small toe. It is the same injury, to the same foot, that teammate Martell Webster endured last season.

Webster suffered his initial fracture in October and didn't return until December. In Webster's first game back, he broke the same bone in the same place and missed the rest of the season.

Figuring Outlaw has the same timeline of Webster's initial injury (six-to-eight weeks) he figures to return around mid-January, a span of around 29 games.

Outlaw is one of the Blazers' top reserves, and was averaging 10.9 points and 3.8 rebounds in 23.1 minutes. Veteran Juwan Howard figures to assume most of Outlaw's playing time.

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Blazers 86, Hornets 78: Game 10

Busta Bucket — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 00:52:53 -0500

In a game surrounded by questions about the firing of Byron Scott, the Portland Trail Blazers broke the old adage that when a team loses its coach they win the games immediately following.

LaMarcus Aldridge finished strong with 20 points and 13 rebounds. The struggling Hornets lost Chris Paul, and an important home game.

Prior to the game, my one true target defensively was Paul. In the past he's been able to go off against Portland, but winning depended on whether or not we could stop him from getting his teammates involved.

Paul had a poor shooting night, and eventually left the game in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss 1-2 weeks . I had nightmares of CP3 dropping 30 points and 15 assists, but he ended up not being a major concern, even before the injury.

It should be noted that this game started out with potential for the worst first quarter ever. Both teams were shooting way under 30 percent and I believe the score was 8-6 with three minutes left in the quarter.

No one seemed to be able to hit a shot and frankly, it was tough to watch. But as long as both teams struggle, it's never the end of the world.

The Blazers once again took control of the game in the third quarter. Last season, the third quarter seemed to be the death of this team, but so far things have changed, Nate has them ready following the half-time break.

Aldridge scored 16 of his 20 points in the second half and the Blazers cruised to victory despite the final box scores somewhat close result.

Neither team shot the ball well, especially from the three-point line. This game really came down to Portland hitting the boards on both ends of the floor. The Blazers out rebounded the Hornets 60 to 40 , with 20 total offensive boards. Obviously in a game like this, with such poor shooting, controlling the glass seals a victory.

Random Individual Thoughts

Brandon Roy still looks out of sync. Even though he finished with good numbers overall, his jumper just isn't there yet. He was wide open at least four or five times and the shots weren't close. He also made a few bonehead plays early on, turning the ball over in traffic and forcing the issue. Sometimes I think he's just doing too much, but fortunately he has a solid supporting cast to pick him up.
LaMarcus had everything going in the second half tonight. After sitting for most of the second quarter, he came out hot and strung together a streak of smooth jumpers. When LA's jumper is on, there is no better shot in basketball. He also put in work on the boards, getting his fourth double digit rebound outing in the last six games. Aldridge seems to be rounding in midseason form early in November. That bodes well for his All-Star hopes and the Blazers.
No one shot particularly well for Portland, other than Aldridge. Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw had especially bad nights. Fortunately the Hornets were short-handed in the talent department, because our poor shooting will get you a loss against at least eight other teams in the Western Conference. Shooting will always be inconsistent, but taking better shots and making smart decisions helps the entire team.

Box Score

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Nate McMillan's Stroke Of Genius: The Four Guard Lineup?

Brian D. — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:09:24 -0500

As of this writing, the Portland Trailblazers are 4-0 since switching to their new four-guard starting lineup.

Wait, you ask. Four guard lineup?

That's right. With Greg Oden starting, Portland now has four players who can handle the ball and run the break. If you don't believe me, check out this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPYmOZs0Vv0

In all seriousness, though, by moving Brandon Roy to the small forward and starting a back court of Andre Miller and Steve Blake, Nate McMillan solved his point guard dilemma with one stroke of genius.

Before the move, some fans and writers were calling for the Blazers to start Andre Miller. After all, Miller is a better player than Blake. He makes Greg Oden better. He runs the break better. He runs an offense better, period.

However, others have (rightfully) written that Blake is the better complement to Brandon Roy. Blake is, in some ways, like Steve Kerr and John Paxson were to Michael Jordan. He hits open shots, makes the occasional play and stays out of Brandon's way. Plus, a lot of Blazer fans love Steve Blake, while Miller has yet to really endear himself to Portland.

McMillan was able to solve the problem in a way that makes partisans on both sides happy.

The result has been better ball movement, fewer turnovers, more running, and an undefeated record. It also opens up the Blazers rotation so that Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Joel Przybilla, Martell Webster, and Jerryd Bayless all get minutes.

Of course, both Roy and Webster have each had to sacrifice part of their game for this to work. But they are probably the two players on this team who are most willing and able to adjust their games for the good of the team.

And, of course, there will be nights when Brandon runs into a small forward he just can't handle, such as LeBron James. But nobody handles LeBron James, so that doesn't matter.

What does matter is this: Right now, in spite of all the naysayers, Portland seems to be clicking on all cylinders, and McMillan's chemistry experiment just might be working.

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