Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Ten Worst Pitchers' HR/FB from 2009

Eric Stashin — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 08:17:38 -0500

We have all seen pitchers suffer from whiplash, consistently turning to watch ball after ball sore over the fence. The question is, is that a problem that is going to plague them once again or is there hope of overcoming it and righting the ship in 2010?

Let’s take a look at the pitchers with the 10 worst home run/flyball rates in 2009 to see:

1) Braden Looper: 15.8 percent

The player with the worst HR/FB in the league last season, does anyone really care? While it is a fairly sizable jump (he had an 11.7 percent mark in 2008), he’s a fantasy non-factor as a starting pitcher no matter what.

2) Rick Porcello: 14.1 percent

There were some definite growing pains for the 20-year old rookie, having allowed 23 HR last season. It was pretty steady across the board as well, like 11 HR allowed at home vs. 12 on the road and 13 allowed prior to the All-Star Break vs. 10 afterwards.

As a pitcher who posted a Top Five groundball rate, however, I would definitely expect this to improve with more experience. Now, his strikeout rate is another issue, but that’s a story for another day. He threw 77.1 percent (second to only Mike Pelfrey) of his pitches as fastballs, which likely played a role. Like I said, more experience should yield better results.

3) Trevor Cahill: 13.2 percent

For his minor league career (245.7 innings) he posted a flyball rate of just 25.7 percent and allowed eight home runs. In his first Major League season he saw 27 balls fly over the fence despite keeping his flyball rate relatively low (34.1 percent).

Seeing 20 of those home runs coming at home, in a park that is more conducive for pitchers, may be the most telling number to point to. Look for the number of home runs he allows to decrease, potentially dramatically, for the upcoming season. With it will go his ERA, giving him some pretty good upside for 2010.

We’ll take a closer look at him across the board in the coming weeks.

4) Joe Blanton: 13.0 percent

Much like Braden Looper I have to ask, who cares? He’s a mediocre pitcher, which is a polite way of saying that he is not worth owning in any format. While it’s possible he improves on the number of home runs he allowed, it’s no guarantee in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark.

Then again, 14 of the 30 HR he allowed last season came on the road. The plain fact is that he isn’t very good.

5t) Joe Saunders: 12.8 percent

After marks of 8.6 percent, 8.8 percent, and 8.7 percent the previous three seasons, his 2009 performance sticks out like a sore thumb. I’d expect him to improve on that performance and get back to the days where he is allowing less than a home run per nine innings.

5t) Josh Beckett: 12.8 percent

He’s had worse seasons (15.4 percent in 2006), as well as many better ones. He could go either way, but more times then not his year’s have been better than what he did in 2009. Look for an improvement there, at least a modest one.

5t) Ricky Romero: 12.8 percent

Over his minor league career he posted a HR/9 of 0.75, so seeing it jump to 0.91 in the Major Leagues is not very unrealistic. The problem, however, is that the latter came courtesy of a 26.6 percent flyball rate, better than his career minor league mark of 33.1 percent.

The signs could potentially lead to a bigger regression than we saw in the second half, but we’ll need to delve much deeper into it in the near future. At first glance, however, he’s looking like a pitcher I wouldn’t want to touch.

8 ) Yovani Gallardo: 12.3 percent

After missing the majority of the 2008 campaign, seeing him struggle with the long ball a bit shouldn’t be a huge surprise. He improved dramatically in the second half, allowing just seven home runs over 71.0 innings (after allowing 14 home runs over 114.2 innings in the first half). Look for a dramatic improvement in 2010.

9) Bronson Arroyo: 11.9 percent

Unless he gets traded, don’t look for a drastic improvement. Over the last two seasons’ he has allowed 60 HR. He’s a notorious hot and cold pitcher, which clearly makes him a low-end option because his overall ERA is likely to be sub par.

10 )Jorge de la Rosa: 11.8 percent

This is a pitcher that needs a full article look at him to really determine what he’s capable of. Still, from a HR/FB perspective, this appears to be what we are going to get from him. Over his career (589.0 innings), he has a career mark of 11.0 percent. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however. Not by a long shot.

What are your thoughts on these pitchers? Who could see the biggest improvement?

Previous Statistical Anysis:

Ten Best Batters’ HR/FB

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Read more Bronson Arroyo news on BleacherReport.com

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Rewind: Bronson Arroyo

Russell Wight — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:26:57 -0500

This is the first post of my in-depth review of the 2009 Cincinnati Reds. After a quick look back at the season as a whole, I will now begin a player-by-player analysis of this year's performances and what to look for next year.

Bronson Arroyo finished the year 15-13 with a 3.84 earned run average. Despite beginning the season with discomfort caused by carpal tunnel syndrome, he was the workhorse of the pitching staff. Arroyo made 33 starts and logged 220.1 innings, and it was the sixth consecutive season in which he has started over 30 games.

Prior to the All-Star Break, the right-hander made 18 starts, giving up 125 hits and 67 earned runs in 112 innings pitched. In the second half, Arroyo made 15 starts, surrendering 89 hits and 27 earned runs in 108.1 innings. His earned run average was more than three runs better in the second half of the season, ending up at a respectable 3.84. His final start of the year resulted in a victory over the Cardinals. It marked the 12th straight start in which he pitched at least seven innings and allowed three or fewer runs.

To say that 2009 was a tale of two seasons for Arroyo would be the understatement of the year.

Racking up 15 wins on a team that finished 78-84 is a noteworthy accomplishment. With Aaron Harang having another disappointing season and Edinson Volquez slated to miss most of 2010 because of Tommy John surgery, Arroyo will need to put together a full season of quality starts if the Reds are to contend in the NL Central.

Arroyo has decided not to have carpal tunnel surgery on his right wrist this offseason. He says the condition has improved since he stopped playing the guitar during Spring Training. However, he plans on playing this winter and then giving it up when the 2010 season rolls around.

Arroyo needs to be on the mound when the Reds open the 2010 season against the Cardinals next April. He is the most reliable starting pitcher on the team and has earned the honor of being the Opening Day starter.

Arroyo is 32-years-old and has one guaranteed year left in his current contract that will pay him $11 million in 2010. There is a club option for 2011 for $11 million.

Read more Bronson Arroyo news on BleacherReport.com

Bleacher Report - Bronson Arroyo

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Ten Worst Pitchers' HR/FB from 2009

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Rewind: Bronson Arroyo