Managers of the Year Have a Decidedly Dodger Blue Tint to Them

Jose Salviati — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:55:58 -0500

Times are tough in Los Angeles.

A second consecutive playoff exit at the hands of the Phillies was followed by news of a nasty divorce. Frank McCourt and his soon to be ex-wife Jamie continue to lob insults at each other making the most personal of matters embarrassingly public.

Of course, the Dodgers have Joe Torre at the helm with his four World Series titles. None while guiding L.A.'s storied franchise.

Today comes news that has to serve as another kick to the Dodgers down offseason.

First came word that Jim Tracy won the NL Manager of the Year award. The announcement was a foregone conclusion after Tracy led the Rockies on an improbable playoff run. His easy going manner seemed to be exactly what the mile high team needed; his selection is a surprise to no one.

Tracy was Dodger manager from 2001 through 2005.

That news was quickly followed by word that Mike Scioscia is this years AL Manager of the year recipient. Like Tracy, Scioscia was a shoe-in. His "one game at a time" mantra and ability to connect with his players was never more on display, or more needed, than it was after Nick Adenharts tragic death.

Scioscia played 12 years for the Dodgers and spent several years as a coach in the organization.

I'm not suggesting that the Dodgers would be any better off with either Tracy or Scioscia at the helm instead of Torre. Tracy in fact was given five years to lead the team. The Dodgers were an impressive 427-383 under his guidance.

A fourth place finish in 2005 proved to be his undoing. One could argue his record earned him a pass after one bad year, but five years is an eternity for a major league baseball manager.

He got his shot—Scioscia, however, never did.

The Angels skipper was famously passed over for the Dodger Manager spot and finally opted to accept an offer to lead the Halos in 1999. The Dodger manager at the time was Davey Johnson. After that came Jim Tracy. Scioscia was and remains a great success as the Angel skipper leading the team to the 2002 World Series Championship. This is his second Manager of the Year award.

Would the Dodgers be better of with either of this years Manager of the Year award winners? Again, I am not suggesting that.

However, it is worth noting that both have a Dodger connection. It's also worth pondering what might have been if the Dodgers had been more patient with Tracy or more aware of Sciocia's managerial talents.

Times are tough in LA to be sure and these selections must only serve as salt to a Dodger wound. The salt doesn't hurt all that much but it stings like the dickens.

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Dodgers' "Unclutchness" Kept Them Out of The World Series

Tom Au — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:32:18 -0500

The Dodgers have most of what it takes to enter, or even win, the World Series. But they need to be more "clutch."

FanGraphs had them ranked first in National League teams in raw hitting ability for 2009. But they were behind the Phillies in batting "win probability." Meaning that the Phillies had fewer hits, but hit more when it counted. Sound familiar from the NCLS?

FanGraphs also had the Dodgers ranked first in Major League baseball in raw pitching. But the Dodgers' "clutch" value was a MINUS 1.84, putting them seventh in pitching "win probability."

That meant that the Dodgers lost two more games than their raw statistics would suggest because their hurlers pitch well in games that the batters were likely to win anyway, and poorly in close ones.

The Giants, Rockies, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels ahead of them all had positive clutch values, the three National League teams at the expense of the Dodgers.

Overall, the Dodgers' "win probability" was between fifth and sixth in baseball.

Meaning that even after the Giants and Cubs were eliminated before the postseason, the Dodgers did well to beat a clearly inferior Cardinals team, before falling to one of the three superior teams (the Yankees, Phillies, and Angels were all ahead of them).

During the season, the Dodgers had the largest differential (+169) between runs scored and runs allowed; more than the New York Yankees (+162) who won the World Series.

More than the Philadelphia Phillies (111), who beat them out of the NLCS. More even, than the other LA team, the Angels of Anaheim (122). It's just a matter of translating those extra runs into more wins.

"Sabermetrically," the Dodgers' win total should have been closer to 100 wins than the 95 that they actually got, putting them neck-and-neck with the New York Yankees, who should have earned fewer wins.

The culprits are not the ones that I would have thought (they're mostly veterans, not rookies). Among pitchers, aging Randy Wolf and Guillermo Mota accounted for more than the Dodgers' deficit, with part of it made up by other players.

On offense, the "drags" included Manny Ramirez and Orlando Hudson. The young pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are good, and getting better. Ditto for hitters like Andre Ethier.

Thus, writers like Jesse Motiff are right, that the Dodgers would be foolish to trade Chad Billingsley, even for someone like the Toronto Blue Jays' Roy Halladay. The Dodgers might need to think about replacing Ramirez, and Wolf, but that's about all.

This is a lesson for those who would advocate major trades or big signings: The Dodgers don't need more talent to go to the World Series. They just need to make better use of what they have.

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Bleacher Report - Los Angeles Dodgers

Managers of the Year Have a Decidedly Dodger Blue Tint to Them

Dodgers' "Unclutchness" Kept Them Out of The World Series