Bleacher Report - Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals Hope To Build Foundation For Winning

Dave Nichols — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:42:54 -0500

The Washington Nationals announced today the hiring of Jim Riggleman's 2010 field staff.

Some of the names we knew. Others? Not so much. But the new names certainly aren't new to the skipper, each having extensive experience working alongside Riggleman at various points in their careers.

Returning are Rick Eckstein (hitting coach), Steve McCatty (pitching coach) and Pat Listach (infield/third base coach).

The new hires are John McLaren (bench coach), Dan Radison (first base coach) and Jim Lett (bullpen coach).

What's apparent (and important) is that the organization allowed Riggleman the opportunity to bring in folks he was familiar and comfortable with.

Radison worked with Riggleman in Chicago and San Diego, and Eckstein in St. Louis, while Lett was with the Dodgers when Riggleman was Jim Tracy's bench coach.

And of course, Riggleman was MacLaren's bench coach in Seattle, and took over for MacLaren when he was dismissed mid-season in 2008.

These announcements come on the heels of a busy off-season addressing the needs of the front office. General Manager Mike Rizzo has been extremely busy filling out a roster of lieutenants that will do a bulk of the legwork in rebuilding this organization, essentially, from top to bottom.

Of course, there are some pieces already in place. Ryan Zimmerman established himself as a star in 2009, and Stephen Strasburg (his recent knee injury notwithstanding) and Drew Storen are not too far from helping out the major league pitching staff.

But most of the minor league rosters are still full of sub-par draft picks, conducted when Jim Bowden was still in charge, and the upper minors are especially barren.

But Rizzo has had two drafts to start to refill the cupboards, and now he has a lot of help in that regard.

Rizzo has hired 17 full-time staff members this off-season, mostly filling empty positions. He brought in Davey Johnson as his senior advisor to be a trusted right-hand man in baseball decisions.

Rizzo also brought in valued executives, scouts and numbers crunchers, and to a man, they all described Rizzo as the reason they left their previous organizations to come to a team that has lost 100-plus games two years running.

Hopefully, some top-notch personnel that actually play the game will feel the same way once the free agent signing period opens up.

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Washington Nationals Must Extend Adam Dunn's Contract before Salaries Go Crazy

Farid Rushdi — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:58:39 -0500

If the Washington Nationals are planning on extending the contract of first baseman Adam Dunn, they had better do it soon because it looks as though the period of contractual sanity is over.

Fearing that Dunn was going to become a free agent at the end of the year in 2008, the Cincinnati Reds traded their all-star slugger to Arizona for prospects. And fearing that Dunn would accept arbitration and the team would be stuck with his $15 million contract for 2009, the Diamondbacks declined arbitration, making Dunn was a free man.

He sat back in his easy chair and waited for his phone to ring. It never did.

Dunn and his agent fully expected to be offered several multi-year deals worth $50 million or more. But by February 2009, they had received no substantive offers and were forced to accept the Nationals’ bargain-basement offer of two years, $20 million. Dunn was willing to sign a three year deal, but the Nationals said no.

They assumed, as I did, that contract values would continue to decline until the economy rebounded, which could take several years. If they waited, perhaps they could sign Dunn—or someone like him—for even less money.

But just a year later, the players believe that their recession is over.

Matt Holliday has indicated he has no desire to resign with the St. Louis Cardinals and will become a free agent. His agent, Scott Boras, has said he expects “[Alfonso] Soriano-type money” for his client.

In the winter of 2006, Washington free agent Alfonso Soriano signed an eight year, $136 million contract with the Cubs. Three years later, Soriano, now 33, batted just .241-20-55 and Chicago is stuck with him through 2014.

Now, Boras usually asks for the moon, but he usually gets what he wants. No, Holliday isn’t getting $17 million a year, but he might come close.

If Holliday were the only slugger expecting to hit a Las Vegas-style jackpot this year, I’d call him an anomaly. But he’s not the only one.

Jason Bay, the low-key, high-octane outfielder for the Red Sox turned down Boston’s four-year contract that would have paid him $15 million per season. He too enters the jet stream that is the free agent market.

If Jason Bay thinks he’s worth more than $15 million per year, and Matt Holliday thinks he’s worth even more than that, what is Adam Dunn worth in this new market?

Let’s compare the three players' career averages:

BA—HR—RBI

Dunn: .250-40-101

Bay: .280-33-107

Holliday: .318-29-112

Runs Scored

Dunn: 100

Bay: 102

Holliday: 109

Doubles

Dunn: 29

Bay: 34

Holliday: 43

Triples

Dunn: 1

Bay: 4

Holliday: 5

Walks:

Dunn: 115

Bay: 86

Holliday: 61

Strikeouts

Dunn: 180

Bay: 157

Holliday: 115

OPS

Dunn: .903

Bay: .896

Holliday: .833

Clearly, there are some differences. Holliday provides a much higher batting average but is not as powerful. Dunn and Bay strike out far more often than Holliday. All three average more than 100 runs scored and more than 100 runs driven in.

A team would be no better with one of those players in their lineup as opposed to the other two. Defensively, Bay and Holliday are adequate while Dunn is a sub-par outfielder, but will become an adequate first baseman.

So, really, they all bring roughly the same amount of ability to a team. Sure, Holliday will get more base hits but Adam Dunn will hit more home runs.

Bill James has an abstract statistic called “runs created per game,” the number of runs a player produces for his team every 27 outs.

Holliday creates 7.8 runs per game, Dunn 7.5, and Bay 7.3.

So let’s assume that both Bay and Holliday get their $15 million contracts this winter. Where does that leave the Nationals and Adam Dunn?

If Dunn doesn’t get his extension and he reenters the free agent market next fall, he would likely earn at least $13 million, perhaps more. Remember, Dunn earned $13 million in his last season with the Reds, before the market collapsed.

Knowing this, Dunn wouldn’t agree to an extension for the same $10 million per year he’s earning now; it will probably take $12.5 million to get him to extend through 2012.

It was Adam Dunn who protected Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup, allowing him to have his career year in 2009. It was Adam Dunn whose long home runs gave the Nationals some badly needed national recognition. It was Adam Dunn who gave the Nationals their first household name.

Nothing the Nationals do this year or next will matter much if Adam Dunn plays just two years in Washington. No longer can the team be sellers; they must continue to sign new players while retaining their own.

Can you imagine the outcry if the Nationals win 75 or 85 games in 2010 only to lose Dunn to free agency? No free agent signing could salve that wound.

Ryan Zimmerman notwithstanding, Adam Dunn is the linchpin of the Washington Nationals. Without him, stories written about the team in the coming years would be about what could have been if the Nationals had only been able to resign the team’s modern-day Frank Howard.

It won’t be pretty, that’s for sure.

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Stephen Strasburg To Miss AFL Start

Adam Bernacchio — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:55:01 -0500

Stephen Strasburg must really not want to have people see him pitch on a national level.

Strasburg missed the nationally televised Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game because of a strained neck muscle last month. Now he's going to miss his start on Saturday in the Arizona Fall League championship game.

That game will be televised on the MLB Network as well.

Strasburg will miss his start on Saturday because of a twisted left knee. That just sounds painful.

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft hurt his knee during a workout on Thursday. But don’t worry Washington Nationals fans (all five of you), the injury is not considered serious.

When Strasburg hasn’t been injured in the Arizona Fall League, he has pitched pretty well. In five starts, Strasburg is 4-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 26 Ks in 19 innings for the Phoenix Desert Dogs.

Of course, there will be some people out there who will say, “Oh great, the guy is injury prone.” Those people need to relax.

This is no big deal.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Strasburg and Storen Ready To Transform Nationals Into Winners

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:38:21 -0500

When the first round of last summer’s amateur draft came to an end, the Washington Nationals had significantly improved themselves by selecting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen.

Usually, it takes several years before a team knows whether their first-round selection was a success. Since picking Ryan Zimmerman in 2005, the Nationals have selected eight players in the first-round (including Strasburg and Storen). The jury is still out on Colton Willems, Christopher Marrero, Michael Burgess, Josh Smoker, and Ross Detwiler. Aaron Crow never signed with the team.

Of those players, only Marrero seems certain to have a major league career in the offing.

So you never know.

Well, you almost never know. There is little doubt that this year’s picks, Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen, will arrive in Washington soon and once here will be part of the Nationals’ franchise for years to come.

Both players now have enough professional innings under their belts to begin to get a sense of the type of players they will be.

Here are Strasburg’s numbers, which include his two outings in the Florida Instructional League. I have, however, omitted his outing earlier this month when he gave up seven runs in three innings; I think his body was taken over by the spirit of some long-dead 20-game loser.

Seriously, I have heard more than one ESPN radio jockey say that Strasburg is causing the Nationals concern because he’s not pitching well in Arizona. In other words, they look at his 4.16 ERA and make assumptions.

Let’s not make assumptions. Take a look at his numbers:

Innings Pitched: 21

Runs: 3

Walks: 3

Strikeouts: 25

ERA: 1.28

Batting Average-Against: .219

Strikeouts per 9 Innings: 10.7

Walks per 9 Innings: 1.2

Just like in college, Strasburg is a strikeout machine while walking almost no one. Based on a full major league season, Strasburg would be on pace to strikeout 250 while walking just 30.

Yeah, that’s crazy.

Tracy Ringolsby of Foxsports.com wrote recently that the Nationals need to go slow with Strasburg, that they need to keep him in the minor leagues until he’s ready to succeed at a major league level.

Ringolsby said that the Nationals should keep him the minors until he dominates them.

Well, he’s dominating the Arizona Fall League, which is comprised of the very best prospects in the minor leagues. And on top of that, it’s is a hitter's league.

How much more dominating does he need to be?

If Strasburg pitches well next spring—I’m talking 15 innings, 20 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00 here—then there is no reason for him not to start the season in Washington.

Unlike Strasburg, who signed his contract with just seconds left before the deadline, Drew Storen signed the very next day and quickly reported to Class A Hagerstown, ready to dominate the league.

Right up until he got tagged for a long home run by the first batter he faced.

Since then, however, Storen has been even more dominating than Strasburg, if that’s possible. He was promoted to High-A Potomac and again to AA Harrisburg before the season ended.

Here are Storen’s statistics, which include his Arizona Fall League numbers:

Innings Pitched: 50

Runs: 9

Walks: 11

Strikeouts: 62

ERA: 1.61

Batting Average-Against: .203

Strikeouts per 9 Innings: 11.1

Walks per 9 Innings: 1.51

Though Storen seems ready to take over as the Nationals’ closer in 2010, the team is considering bringing back Mike MacDougal and is looking at established, veteran closers like Mike Gonzalez and Virginia native Billy Wagner.

It would seem that the only way Nationals’ fans see Drew Storen in 2010 is if they buy a plane ticket to Syracuse. And really, the team is right for going slow with Storen. Terrible teams don’t need dominant closers.

Better to wait until 2011 when the Nationals will have Strasburg for the full season along with a healthy Jordan Zimmermann.

Baseball America lists Strasburg and Storen as the team’s top two prospects, and they are right of course. They will fill two of the biggest holes in the Nationals’ roster, and the two of them could help turn the team around quickly.

It’s happened before.

The Houston Astros won just 76 games in 1995 and decided to bring up a couple of young pitchers towards the end of the season to give them some seasoning.

The following year, Houston won 82 games and finished second in their division behind the pitching of Mike Hampton and Billy Wagner. The Astros went on to win their division four of the next five years.

Yes, it can happen that fast. Here’s hoping it happens for the Nationals.

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Josh Willingham: What's His Trade Market?

Adam Bernacchio — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 08:33:00 -0500

In Ken Rosenthals’ Latest Buzz From The MLB Offseason piece on FOXSports.com , he mentions that the Washington Nationals are receiving strong interest in OF Josh Willingham.

I have always liked Willingham and have believed he has been one of the more underrated players in the game for the last couple of years. I guess underrated comes with the territory when you play for the Florida Marlins and the Nationals.

Now that Willingham’s name has emerged in trade rumors, let’s take a look at what GM’s are potentially getting. Here are the pros, the cons, and what teams would be interested in trading for the Nationals’ OF.

Pros

As I mentioned, Willingham has been vastly underrated over the last couple of years. Since 2006, Willingham has averaged 22 home runs with a .256 avg., a .362 OBP, and an .844 OPS.

Willingham’s .863 OPS in 2009 was 13th amongst all outfielders in baseball–ahead of Matt Kemp, Bobby Abreu, Carlos Lee, and Nick Markakis.

Willingham is also very consistent versus left-handed and right-handed pitching. He has a .264 avg. versus righties and a .265 avg. versus lefties. A team doesn’t have to worry about a platoon situation with Willingham.

Perhaps the most appealing aspect of Willingham is his age and his salary. Willingham is only 30-years-old and should be entering the prime of his career.

That coupled with which ever team would trade for Willingham would have him under team control until after the 2011 season at around $4.5-$5 million in salary, makes Willingham a very appealing option for teams.

Cons

While Willingham might be a consistent offensive player, his defense makes him a borderline DH. Willingham has always ranked towards the bottom in UZR for left fielders and he is no better in right field.

Besides defense, teams might be concerned with Willingham’s health. He has never played more than 144 games in a season and has battled back problems the last couple of years. One has to wonder if those back issues will get worse as Willingham gets older.

The last concern teams might have about Willingham is that he has never played in a big game in his life. It’s one thing to put up numbers when your team is 20 games out of first, but it’s another thing to put up numbers in a pennant race.

I am not saying Willingham wouldn’t thrive in a pennant race, but it is something for a GM to think about.

Now that we have looked at the pros and cons of Willingham, let’s take a look at what teams might be interested in the former University of North Alabama star.

Atlanta Braves: Rosenthal mentioned the Braves as having interest in Willingham and it makes sense. The Braves need a right-handed bat and Willingham is a southern guy.

He was born in Florence, AL and as I mentioned above, went to the University of North Alabama.

San Francisco Giants: Randy Winn is a free agent and the Giants could use a left fielder. Perhaps if the Giants miss out on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, they can go for a more cost-effective option in Willingham.

Oakland A’s: The A’s could really use an offensive boost. Willingham would be an upgrade over Jack Cust at DH or Scott Hairston in left field.

Kansas City Royals: Mike Jacobs figures to be a non-tender candidate, leaving an opening at the DH spot for the Royals. Willingham would be a huge upgrade over Jacobs.

Willingham could also be an internal option to fill the open spot in right field in 2011 once the Jose Guillen era thankfully comes to an end in Kansas City.

Seattle Mariners: Willingham really doesn’t fit GM Jack Zduriencik’s defense first philosophy, but the Mariners need a left-fielder and they need a DH.

Both needs make Willingham an appealing option for the M’s.

It will be interesting to see if the Nationals trade Willingham this offseason because they really don’t have to. I would say the Nationals would have to be really blown away to trade him.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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