Bleacher Report - New York Mets

Ike Davis: How Should New York Mets Handle First Baseman's Early Struggles?

Andrew Gould — Tue, 21 May 2013 10:33:53 -0400

This is going to sound awfully familiar, but New York Mets first baseman Ike Davis is marred in an awful slump to start the season. He might be testing the organization's patience too far this time around.

Through 40 games, Davis is posting an unequivocally abysmal .152/.234/.254 slash line. While the team has waited for him to snap out of his funk, Davis has instead dived deeper into the abyss. He's notched one hit in his last 33 at-bats, striking out 13 times during that stretch.

Entering the season, Davis figured to serve as the franchise's premier power bat, but the 26-year-old has earned just four home runs and nine RBI for the "Amazins." (Can we really still sincerely refer to the Mets as amazing?)

Last season's stumble out of the gate figured to be a one-time blip stemming from unordinary consequences. Not only was Davis recovering from an ankle injury that sidelined him for nearly the entirety of 2011, but he also came down with valley fever that spring.

Although he was hitting .163/.221/.304 a year ago from today, the Mets stuck with their young gun, correctly counting on him to turn his season around. Will they demonstrate the same patience after another dreadful start?

According to ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin, there is growing support within the front office to demote Davis.

Ike Davis demotion talk intensifying es.pn/14eKL7L #NYM #Mets
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) May 18, 2013

Before deciding Davis' fate, let's first examine how we got to this scenario in the first place (again).

April Showers Bring Even More May Showers

The following portion of this article should come with a warning label for those who root for the Mets and/or own Davis in a fantasy baseball league.

Every number you can find on his FanGraphs player page will make you queasy. Beyond his batting average, Davis is sporting a .101 Isolated Power (ISO) rate that is lower than the 5'5", 173-pound Jose Altuve's mark. His slugging percentage ranks 30th among qualified first basemen, and yes, there are only 30 Major League Baseball teams.

The most concerning stat of all is his 31.2 percent strikeout rate. When he offered a glimpse of brilliance in his brief stint on the field in 2011, Davis struck out in 20.8 percent of his plate appearances. His 24.1 percent mark from last season is considered way too high.

You know it's bad when a "Did Ike Davis Strikeout?" Twitter handle pops up.

Yes. But better than a double play.

While one could point to his .195 BABIP as a sign of poor luck, it's hard to give him a free pass after making the same excuse last year. Sure, anyone needs a few bad breaks to hit well below .200, but his BABIP should be expected to remain low if he continues to operate as a dead-pull hitter with a 43.3 percent ground-ball rate.

In less than two months, Davis has managed to cost the Mets nearly a full win, generating a minus-0.8 WAR as per FanGraphs' calculation. His WAR suggests that he is worse than an average replacement player, but do the Mets even have an average replacement player?

Dispersing Davis' Playing Time

Andrew Brown appeared to be emerging as a replacement option and began to see time at first base in Triple-A. Then he strained his oblique, which likely means Davis has one less candidate hunting for his job.

If the Mets want to replace him with someone from the farm, they could look to Josh Satin or Zach Lutz.

Satin is hitting .313/.425/.500 in Triple-A, producing six homers and 24 RBI through 40 games. Those numbers, however, are coming in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and the 28-year-old is rarely perceived as a future major league starter.

Also swinging in Triple-A Las Vegas, Lutz is not wowing anyone with a .273/.347/.432 slash line. The 27-year-old is not much more than organizational depth for New York.

No in-house option will garner much excitement among Flushing fans, so would they peruse the open market for alternatives? Now that the Oakland Athletics recently designated Daric Barton for assignment, the Mets may look to him as a stop-gap if they demote Davis, according to the New York Post's Joel Sherman.

#Athletics DFAd Barton who is patient/can field 1B, so asked #Mets exec if interest perhaps instead of Ike, and said no talks yet on him.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) May 18, 2013

Barton's .370 career slugging percentage certainly is not what you want from a first baseman, but Sandy Alderson might be attracted to his .359 on-base percentage spawned by a 14.2 percent walk rate.

But the most sensible solution is to shift Lucas Duda over to first base, a position much more suited for the burly slugger. Duda's snail-like speed makes him a liability in the outfield, where he has posted a minus-5.6 ultimate zone rating (UZR) this season.

That, however, makes the murky outfield situation even more of a mess, with no reliable regular to man Citi Field's spacious terrain. The likes of Rick Ankiel, Mike Baxter, Juan Lagares, Marlon Byrd and Jordany Valdespin, who combined have amassed 10 homers and a 0.4 WAR, would scrap for playing time.

Any mix of those three in the outfield with Duda at first would currently provide more production than a lineup with Davis present, but the difference is minuscule for a team with no real chance of playoff contention.

For demoting Davis to pay off, the move would have to spark a flame under the slumping slugger and bring him back to New York a changed man.

Will a Visit to Minors Yield Major Changes?

There is an underlying notion that sending a player down to the minors is a near-guaranteed fix to his flaws. While it often helps, it's far from a foregone conclusion.

The idea is that Davis regains his confidence by feasting on inferior Triple-A pitching for a couple weeks, before carrying over that success back to the majors.

But Davis has struggled to combat offspeed pitches, and facing pitchers with little ability to master those pitches will not help Davis improve. It may just lure him into a false sense of security before returning to a traumatizing Clayton Kershaw curveball.

It probably helps if the player embraces the demotion as a challenge, but Davis doesn't seem to think it'd make much of a difference.

"As far as making me a better hitter, I don't think it's going to happen down there," he said, according to Newsday's Marc Craig.

Unless the coaches in Triple-A are hoarding some of Michael Jordan's secret stuff, a trip to the farm is not an automatic fix to all of Davis' woes.

Do We Still Like Ike?

Essentially, the Mets are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

If they decide that Davis means too much to the franchise to send down, they will have to put up with horrible offensive production from their first baseman.

If they send him down, their offense will still falter as the team continues to cement real estate at fourth place.

For now, their best course of action is to ride out his cold streak as long as they can. He hit .253 with 27 homers last year after May, so there's hope that he eventually kicks it into gear.

However, collecting one hit through nine games is awfully hard to ignore. If that persists, the Mets will no longer be able to sweep his start under the rug and pretend that everything is fine.

Maybe Matt Harvey can play first base. At .158, the ace actually has a better average.

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7 Position Players New York Mets Should Target in the 2013 Draft

Sam R. Quinn — Tue, 21 May 2013 07:00:00 -0400

Ah, the Major League Baseball draft; the one draft in the four major professional sports that is essentially a crap shoot. You just never know what is going to happen. For every Ken Griffey Jr., there are seven or eight Brien Taylors just waiting to decimate a team's future.

There will never be another Griffey Jr., but here's hoping that the New York Mets find someone closer to him than Taylor with their No. 11 overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft.

Sandy Alderson has done a good job of putting together some high-potential arms down in the minor league ranks, so it would make sense for this year's draft to be about acquiring a top-notch hitter who can rise fast and contribute relatively soon.

While that is the perfect scenario, it is nowhere near a foregone conclusion. More often than not, front office executives look for the best—or closest to can't miss—player on the board because of the unpredictability of the talent pool.

Here are seven position players that the Mets should consider taking in the 2013 draft.

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Mets' Top 10 Prospects for Week 7

Shale Briskin — Mon, 20 May 2013 04:47:28 -0400

The Mets' inconsistencies still remain after a road trip to St. Louis and Chicago. After losing three of four to the Cardinals, the Mets took two of three against the Cubs. The pitching and offense continue to be inconsistent as well.

In the minor leagues, the Mets' farm teams continue to develop their prospects, or at least the players that are not on the disabled list.

Here is a look at how the Mets' top prospects have been doing the last week.

All statistics are from baseballreference.com/minors and are current as of May 19. Statistics from specific games are from http://www.milb.com/index.jsp and are current as of May 19.

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Is Bobby Parnell the New York Mets' Long-Term Answer at Closer?

Tamer Chamma — Sun, 19 May 2013 23:20:33 -0400

Bobby Parnell has seized control of the closer’s role for the New York Mets in 2013. The opportunity at hand with the franchise, though, is much greater for him then a single-season stint saving games.

The Mets have not had a homegrown closer since Randy Myers in the late 1980s. Even Myers only held down the role for two seasons, 1988 and 1989, before being shipped to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for John Franco. Before Myers, the last closer The Amazin’s could truly call their own was Tug McGraw.

The man who coined “Ya Gotta Believe” accumulated 86 saves in his nine seasons with the team.

Parnell, a ninth-round selection in the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft by the Mets, is the first farmhand with a real chance to close long-term for the team since McGraw.

He is also setting himself up to be part of the core that will attempt to bring New York out of a six-year-plus run of depressing baseball in Queens.

That core currently includes Matt Harvey, David Wright and Zack Wheeler. If Travis d’Arnaud ever stays healthy, he’ll be a part of it as well.

Can Parnell be a key piece of a team that will attempt to play the part of contender instead of laughingstock pretender starting in 2014 at a position that has primarily been addressed through trades and free agency in the franchise’s 51-year history?

The answer is yes, because the 28-year-old has finally found a closer’s mentality through a pitch to complement his blazing 98-mph fastball.

Parnell’s numbers only tell part of the story of his success so far in 2013. They deserve some recognition, however, since they have been off-the-charts fantastic.

He sports a sub-one ERA and a WHIP that sits at a splendid 0.67. He has allowed only 10 hits in 19.1 innings, and even more impressively, he has yet to allow a home run.

Parnell does have two blown saves in eight chances, but both were the result of poor defense by the Mets.

In the first blown save, against the Colorado Rockies in mid-April, an errant throw by Ruben Tejada allowed the tying runs to score in the eighth inning.

The second one, on April 29th in Miami against the Marlins, was largely the fault of center fielder Collin Cowgill.

With the Mets leading 2-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Justin Ruggiano led off with a double for Miami. The next hitter, Rob Brantly, popped up to center field. But Cowgill misplayed the ball, turning a sure out into a single. Instead of the Marlins having a man on second and one out, they were set up with runners on the corners and no outs. Nick Green followed Brantly with a sacrifice fly that tied the game.

Blown saves aside, when you throw in Parnell’s perfect 4-0 record, he has been directly involved in 10 of the Mets' 17 wins.

His sudden ascension into a reliable closer has a lot to do with a newfound confidence in attacking hitters.

Parnell looked scared and unsure of himself in his attempts to save games in 2011 and 2012. He would too often try to fight through the ninth inning by relying almost exclusively on his fastball. His preference to be a thrower and not a pitcher allowed hitters to get a good rhythm against him.

This was a big reason why he failed miserably as a closer the last two seasons, blowing an incredible 11 of 24 save chances.

Parnell started working on a pitch, the knuckle-curve, during 2012 spring training to replace his slider and better complement his fastball.

Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen explains why the knuckle-curve is more effective for Parnell, courtesy of Anthony DiComo at MLB.com:

Pitching coach Dan Warthen said Parnell's fastball has become a more effective weapon due to a greater separation of velocity between it and his breaking ball. Whereas Parnell used to throw his primary breaking pitch in the upper-80s, he now throws his knuckle-curve in the lower 80s. As a result, hitters have a more difficult time adjusting from one pitch to the other.

"The spread of velocity always works," Warthen said. "It's a big difference, a seven- or eight-mile an hour difference."

While the knuckle-curve was effective in improving Parnell’s overall numbers in 2012 compared to 2011, he still seemed reluctant to rely on it in save situations last year.

This season, he has had no such reluctance. Sunday’s last out to seal his sixth save was a great case in point. He struck out pinch-hitter Dioner Navarro, who represented the tying run, on the knuckle-curve. Navarro is certainly a threat to go yard, as he has two pinch-hit home runs on the young season.

Parnell never seemed to believe in his slider. This is probably why he relied too much on his fastball, especially when attempting to seal a win.

Now that he has mastered the knuckle-curve, he appears to have confidence in it as a bona fide complement to his fastball.

As long as Parnell remains friends with the knuckle-curve, he should continue to excel in the closer role. If good health is also in Parnell’s future, there is reason to believe he will be the Mets' man for saves for the next three to five years.

That will make him part of the core—a homegrown piece who will be relied upon to help bring the Mets back into contention.

If you want more, follow Tamer's tweets at Follow @TamerC_BR

Read more New York Mets news on BleacherReport.com

An Early Look at 4 Realistic Moves New York Mets Could Make at the Deadline

Sam R. Quinn — Sat, 18 May 2013 16:12:29 -0400

This just in: The New York Mets are unwatchable on days that Matt Harvey isn't pitching.

Terry Collins is working with a lineup that, on any given night, has six or seven automatic outs sprinkled in among a couple of major league hitters. David Wright and Co.—though this is no fault of the captain's—are 28th in the league in hitting and last in on-base percentage, a part of the game that Collins and Sandy Alderson have attempted to make of paramount importance.

His pitching staff, outside of the aforementioned phenom and the sporadic, solid Jonathon Niese start, has been abysmal. The team is 7-2 in games started by Harvey, and 9-22 in others. Outside of Harvey, everyone has been serving up a nice buffet of batting practice and gopher balls.

No team in baseball swoons like the Mets swoon. Their slides are a perfect storm of anemic hitting and pathetic pitching.

But, just as all teams do every summer, the Mets have an opportunity to make improvements at the trade deadline. The team has sat idly by as the deadline has come and gone these last few seasons. Even a marginal improvement is necessary this time around.

While it may be two months before the trade deadline, it's never too early for speculation. Here are four possible trades the Mets could make in late July.

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New York Mets 2013: The Good and the Bad so Far

Jocelyn Taub — Sat, 18 May 2013 12:01:22 -0400

It's been four weeks since I looked at the numbers put up by the New York Mets in the early part of the 2013 season. A month is a long time in baseball, and player performance can fluctuate over time. Unfortunately for the Mets, many of the early season positives have evaporated. Additionally, some of the negative stats from the first few weeks of the season haven't improved.

On the optimistic side, the season is still young, and there is plenty of time for the Mets to turn things around. If they hope to be competitive, they are going to have to address a number of issues.

Here's a look at some of the good signs so far for the Mets and some of the less-than-inspiring ones through the first six weeks of the campaign.

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The New York Mets Must Practice Patience Like the New York Islanders Did

Christopher Benini — Fri, 17 May 2013 10:22:52 -0400

In case you've been living under a rock, the New York Mets' Opening Day outfield was Lucas Duda, Marlon Byrd and Colin Cowgill. They have combined for 13 home runs and 38 RBI this season, which coming from three players is dreadful.

To put it in perspective, the league leader in home runs, Justin Upton, has 13. The MLB leader in RBI, Miguel Cabrera, has 41. You read that correctly: The combined totals of the three Mets outfielders are less than one man.

Sandy Alderson has been the subject of criticism in the early going, as he was the one who set up this outfield. However, the Mets and their fans need to take a lesson from another New York sports team.

Travel 20 miles east from Citi Field, and you'll find a worn-down building that looks like a shell of an arena. Step inside that arena, and you'll see that something special is blossoming.

Seven years ago, Garth Snow took control of the New York Islanders, which hadn't been relevant in decades and was only tumbling downward. He rebuilt through the draft. Every season, he was the subject of criticism, as fans demanded trades for star players. Fans said he needed to sign more marquee names. Instead, he stood pat, building through the draft and nabbing a few pieces off waivers along the way.

In 2013, things began to click, and the Islanders found themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2006. For the first time, there is hope in the organization.

They are an exciting team to watch, with talent on the roster and in the minors. These young players can become key members of a title contender or trade pieces for veterans who can contribute for a chance to win the Stanley Cup. The opportunities are endless with this team.

The Mets are hoping that wearing blue and orange isn't the only thing that they share with the Islanders. The Mets want to build a title contender with a young, exciting team, with a surplus of talented youngsters.

In fact, Sandy Alderson is building the core of a great young team; however, that team isn't playing in Citi Field. It is playing in Las Vegas, Birmingham and Port St. Lucie. It will take some time, but the Mets could eventually be a special team.

Sure, the Mets could have signed Michael Bourn to be legitimate center fielder in 2013. They could also ink Andre Ethier when he becomes available this offseason for a mega-contract and have a good corner outfielder for 2014.

But they would be paying an additional player millions of dollars for what? Ten more wins at best? A team with 95 losses one year will finish with 85 losses the next year—that's not much help.

It makes more sense for the Mets to save this money until their prospects develop and the team has a legitimate shot to compete.

Mets fans must preach patience. Their time will come. That time is just not right now.

Christopher Benini is a contributor for the New York Mets and New York Islanders on Bleacher Report. He can be followed here.

Read more New York Mets news on BleacherReport.com

5 Bold Predictions for the Remainder of the Mets' Season

Shale Briskin — Fri, 17 May 2013 05:35:25 -0400

At 15-23 and in fourth place in the NL East, the New York Mets' 2013 season so far has been inconsistent. At times, the starting pitching has been great, but in other games, it has been ineffective. Offensively, the Mets have gotten big home runs in some games but have also had a lot of trouble hitting in other games.

A lot of baseball is still to be played this year, but if the Mets continue playing the way they have so far, they have little to no chance of reaching the postseason. That being said, here are five bold predictions for the rest of the Mets' 2013 season.

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1st-Quarter Grades for the New York Mets

Joe Giglio — Wed, 15 May 2013 16:14:18 -0400

With one quarter of the 2013 season in the books, reality has begun to set in for the New York Mets.

After back-to-back seasons of solid starts followed by second-half collapses, the team in Flushing is avoiding a third consecutive collapse by playing poor baseball to start this campaign.

Heading into Wednesday evening, New York is 14-22, sporting a -25 run differential, losing five straight and heading towards a fourth-place finish in the National League East.

As a group, there's little to be excited about at the moment. Of course, a team is a collection of individuals.

The franchise is struggling, trying to rebuild while staying respectable in the short-term.

Here is a snapshot of how the Mets' roster members are faring while the team loses games.

Without further ado, here are the first-quarter grades for the New York Mets.

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