Bleacher Report - Articles by Ravuth Thorng

My World Series Premonition: Joe Nathan vs Kosuke Fukudome

Ravuth Thorng — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 16:01:38 -0400

With the American League Central race being tighter than Nastia Liukin's leotards, and having to go past the last day of the regular season, I was hesitant to share this, being afraid of jinxing my beloved Twins. But, I have to get this off of my chest, so I thought I might as well share my extremely vivid dream. And no, it is not confessing my undying love for Nastia, but close.

Anyway, you know how most people dream about things that are symbolic or metaphorical, with deeper subliminal meanings, rather than superficial messages? Well, for some reason, my dreams are very straight forward, and get right to the point, in color to boot.

So, I had this dream before the All-Star break and instead of dreaming about women like normal college guys, except for my former pilot roommate who dreamt about planes, I dreamt about baseball. The main thing that I remember from this particular dream was Joe Nathan of the Minnesota Twins pitching to the Cubs' Kosuke Fukudome. Nathan in Twins pinstripes, and Fukudome in their alternate home blue jerseys.

Now, since the Twins did not play the Cubs in interleague this season, the match-up did not come to fruition, the only other times that these two could possibly face each other is during the All-Star game, or the World Series.

Both were All-Stars this season, but they did not face each other. Even so, since it was in New York, technically, the AL players were considered home.

Me being the delusional pimp that I am, a lot of my dreams have come true, except for the whole Liukin thing, but I'm working on that. But, anyway, the only other possible scenario is for these two teams to square off is in the World Series.

Then to break down the scenario even further, the jerseys obviously refer to the game being at Wrigley Field. In that case, The only reason that Joe Nathan would pitch would be in a save situation, implying that the Twins have the lead.

Therefore, with all the factors in check, and the Twins having had the best interleague record for two seasons in a row, my premonition shows the Twins winning it all.

Now I know this may seem far-fetched, but most did not expect the Twins to be where they are right now anyway, so anything can happen. I am not saying that this will happen, but my dream was frighteningly vivid. Plus, there's no harm in trying.

Hopefully, me telling the whole world, well at least the Twins community about my dream does not jinx the Twins chances for the playoffs, but I just thought it was a very strange subject to dream about.

Cliff Lee: 25-Plus Wins?

Ravuth Thorng — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 10:46:08 -0400

Cliff Lee had an up-and-down season in 07, but bounced back to have a stellar campaign. And until this season with all the publicity surrounding the Cy Young Award, he was a relative unknown.

Being a Twins fan, Lee, Sabathia, and Carmona had been a pain in our sides the past several seasons, having to face these guys an excessive number of times. Despite posting two 14-win seasons, and an 18-win season in between (04-06), the relatively small market club possessed a hidden gem.

In the era of the five-man rotation, the 20-win mark is the staple for the pitching greats. A 30-game winner is a concept that will probably never be achieved ever again, unless some freak of nature can throw 110 with a 80 mph yakker that would break as much as Yao Ming is tall. However, the physical makeup of the human body limits velocity to about the 105 range, according to "Popular Mechanics."

Anyway, the average healthy pitcher makes about 34-36 starts in a season. To win 30 games you would have to be a combination of these things: very good, very consistent, and very lucky.

So far, Cliff Lee has been all three of those. Lee doesn't quite blow people away, seeing that he isn't among the strikeout leaders, but he is the top dog in two of the "triple crown" categories.

Instead, Lee maintains his composure on the mound extremely well. His demeanor is like that of a machine, unfazed by anything.

Good batters feast on anxiety displayed by the pitcher, any sense of doubt about your "stuff" or sighs expressed by the pitcher lots of times leads to hits by the opposition.

Lee does not show any fear, and goes about his business. Plus, he is a quick worker, he gets the ball, gets the signs and goes.

Now, let's take a look at his line for the season:

20-2- 2.32 ERA- 4 CG- 2 SHO- 194.1 IP- 177 H- 53 R- 50 ER- 8 HR- 27 BB- 149 SO

He has made 27 starts on the season, and has only received five no-decisions. That's 81.5 percent of his starts are decisions. If he is set to make 34 starts this season, that means possibly seven more starts.

Doing the math, that means 5.705 of his starts will be a decision, win or lose. However, his winning percentage is 90.9 percent, so of the 5.705 decisions, theoretically he could win 5.190 of the starts.

Add all that together and you get a 25-win season. It's not the 30-game winners of old, but since Santana won the AL Cy Young in '06 with 19 wins, leading the Majors, that's pretty damn impressive.

Whether you like him or not, Cliff Lee is on track to becoming a great pitcher. Based on his current percentages, 25 wins is a number that Major League Baseball and the fans should be on the lookout for.

Rocky Road so Far for the Minnesota Twins Pitching : Bullpen

Ravuth Thorng — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:49:05 -0400

The pride and joy of the Twins over the past several years was the Bullpen. This season saw the return of Jesse Crain, and the arrival of Brian Bass.

Brian Bass, a possible option for the rotation during spring, has been a good long reliever for the Twins this season. Even though he was involved in one of the bullpen collapses, he has been solid.

* * *

Matt Guerrier has great stuff including a curveball that rivals Barry Zito's, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Guerrier used to be a good long reliever, but his tenure in the pen has gotten him used to being more of a setup guy, lowering his stamina.

He hasn't been able to go more than a couple innings, and when he is comes in with guys on, he has a hard time holding them. Last season, he was one of the best at stranding guys on the bases.

It is still early yet, so look for Matt to bounce back and remain a vital fixture in the pen.

* * *

Pat Neshek is a dominant setup man, that many fans believed should be the closer if Nathan were to depart. His funky delivery hides the ball very well, and confuses hitters that has never seen him before.

He has a nasty sweeping slider that he can throw for a strike in any count. He went through a dead arm period near the end of last season, which so far has carried over to this season.

He hasn't been as dominant so far allowing seven hits and and five earned in just eight innings of work.

Some sidearmers and submariners begin to get rocked after hitters figure him out, like Byung-Hyun Kim. But then again, there are some guys like Chad Bradford remain decently dominant throughout their career.

* * *

Juan Rincon hasn't been the same since the 2006 season. He has great stuff, an electric fastball and great breaking pitches.

But ironically, ever since he was suspended for steroid accusations, his numbers and repertoire has been on a decline.

I hate to say it, but ever since Rincon has been of the juice, he hasn't been the same go-to guy that he was.

* * *

Jesse Crain was a valuable asset in the pen in the past, but he too was one the shelf for quite a while. He has electric stuff, but needs time to return to he old form.

He was also involved in the bullpen collapse, but he definitely has the potential to be a dominant setup man, and maybe someday a closer someplace, if not with for Twins.

* * *

Dennys Reyes was not that good of a pitcher before he became a Twin. He had mediocre seasons, but under the guidance of pitching coach Rick Anderson, he flourished his first season in Minnesota, posting a 0.89 ERA.

He dropped off a little last season, but this specialty lefty so far has shown glimpses of prior success with a spotless ERA and only allowing four base-runners.

* * *

Joe Nathan wasn't sure whether he would stay in Minnesota this season or not, but it turns out that the contract signing has been a good choice.

So far, Nathan has been lights out not allowing any runs, six hits, and zero walks in seven innings, while picking up six saves on the way.

* * *

The front end of the pen has been a bit shaky, but they get more and more solid toward the setup guys, and eventually Joe. These guys play a huge role. In order for the team to make the playoffs this season, the front end needs to step up their game a bit.

They have what it takes, the talent, the chemistry, the "stuff." It all just needs to come together.

Rocky Road so Far for the Minnesota Twins Pitching : Rotation

Ravuth Thorng — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 07:50:17 -0400

Early in the 2008 season, the Minnesota Twins have already seen a couple changes in their pitching deportment, along with some bumps and bruises.

Francisco Liriano's return to the bigs was a highly anticipated one to most Twins fans. Seeing him almost return to his rookie form of 2006 so quickly placed high hopes on the former Rookie-of-the-Year front-runner.

Liriano's inability to throw the ball over the plate in Spring delayed his return a little longer.

However, Liriano caught a break when teammate Kevin Slowey was placed on the DL, opening up a spot in the rotation sooner than expected. Finally Liriano made his long awaited return, his first start since 2006, but he could not live up to his expectations.

Many Twins fans, myself included, and I think Francisco himself are putting too much pressure on the youngster. We need to cut him some slack, seeing that he is throwing real games for the first time in 18 months.

It will take time for him to find command of the ball again, but he is further along than many expected, reaching 94-95 on the gun already. He will make his way back to the top.

* * *

Before getting sidelined with the flu, Scott Baker was asked to take on the role as the opening day starter which essentially qualifies him as the ace of the staff.

So far, it looks like he would have lived up to the role. Baker and Livan Hernandez have thrown up similar numbers this season. But aside from Hernandez having one more win than Baker, Baker has been a more dominant allowing fewer hits and striking out more.

Livan wants Minnesota to be his last stop before he retires, and when he does leave, look for Baker to be the next Brad Radke. He's a poised, not overpowering pitcher, but great at changing speeds, and can strike out someone when he needs to.

* * *

Despite the 1-1 record, the best pitcher in the rotation so far has been Nick Blackburn. His record should be on par with Livan if he would have gotten the run support.

Blackburn too is a Brad Radke type. He makes batters put the ball in play, and relys on his defense to do their job. Hes given up 28 hits so far, one less than Hernandez, but will get the ground ball double-play. This is why he has given up the fewest runs out of the starters that have started four games.

* * *

Boof Bonser has had a couple rough outings, but he on his way to achieving his goal of wanting to go deeper in ballgames. He was roughed up the last time around but he had pitched 6+ in the three previous.

He still needs to learn to keep the ball down, but losing that much weight would cause you to have to change your mechanics just a bit.

Boof definitely deserves to be applauded for his work ethic during the off season. Sure as hell I can't lose that much weight that quickly.

* * *

Livan Hernandez has done anything, and everything that the Twins have asked him to do. He has been the veteran presence that the team was looking for. He has been the innings eater that they looked for after the departure of Silva and Santana.

He has been the ace that the Twins have asked for. What more could this guy do for the team? The answer is, to lead the Twins to the post-season.

American League Central: Clash of the Underdogs II

Ravuth Thorng — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 16:23:39 -0400

Hey guys, I'm sorry I haven't keep up with my team for a few days, I've been on a hiatus lately because, frankly, school comes before passion.

Well, I guess a few things have happened since I last posted an article. Ironically, one of my last articles featured the aces of the Twins and the Royals. Gil Meche and Livan Hernandez squared off in the first Battle of the Underdogs.

Tonight, the two faced off again, in a rematch of last week's contest. Well, the turn of events has really messed with my mind.

Going into today's game, the Kansas City Royals had given up the fewest runs of any team in the Majors, 15 fewer than the Twins. Yet, the Twins have handed KC three of its four losses.

It is still very early in the season, but it is a rare sight to see the Royals and the Orioles on top of their divisions.

As I mentioned in the previous article, with aces squaring off it will all come down to pitching. The results were similar to the first game and the Twins came out on top 5-0.

Livan Hernandez (3-0) held the Royals to seven hits over seven scoreless frames. Gil Meche was less hittable than Hernandez, but his control was erratic. He allowed five earned runs on five hits, while walking four in six innings.

The teams are pretty evenly matched, so look for the next couple games being closer than tonight's game.

Kansas City Royals-Minnesota Twins: Battle of the Underdogs

Ravuth Thorng — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 08:25:13 -0400

Over the offseason, both of these clubs went through hefty renovations in the lineup as well as in the pitching department. Both had the same ideas in mind and implemented the same strategy as far as acquisitions. But so far the clubs have seen different outcomes.

Both teams are considered the underdogs of the American League Central—neither finishing with an above .500 record last season. The Minnesota Twins have seen recent success, but they were disappointed last season.

The Royals, however, have been on the bottom for several seasons now that the only direction they could go is up. That is what they are aiming to do, and have achieved so far, at least early in the season.

I made a comment on an article before Opening Day that “I still don’t see the Royals out of last place.” Sure it is still too early to tell, but so far, I am impressed with this K.C. team and the way that they have stifled a stacked lineup like Detroit’s.

They have done it all so far—pitching, defense, as well as hot hitting—consistently scoring four or more runs in each game of the first series.

The Twins, on the other hand, showed a glimpse of their successful years on Opening Day with an impressive well-balanced performance. But so far, it has been down hill from there.

Again, both teams went into the offseason with the same rationale, but the outcomes are like night and day. One team achieved consistency; the other team is still struggling to find themselves.

The makeup of these two teams are so similar that it will be like looking in a mirror—both don’t have huge bats in the lineup, so they have to depend on good pitching performances.

The lack of heavy hitters forces both teams to manufacture runs. Finally, playing small ball causes both teams to rely on their defense, especially the corner infielders keeping them on their toes in case of bunts.

The Twins better not go into tonight thinking that it will be an easy win against Kansas City. Scott Baker may have been successful in the past against KC, taking a no-hitter into the ninth last August, but he has been ill with the flu, and lost a lot of playing time in spring.

Baker pitched well in spring, but we’ll see how he fares having been out for a while.

It will be interesting to see how both pitchers do, considering that Baker needs to rebuild his stamina, while KC pitcher John Bale is making his first start since 2003, having been used mainly as a reliever.

Tonight’s game will be a hard one to call, but I have to stick with my team for this one and say that the Twins will come out on top in this contest. It will mainly come down to pitching and I think that the Twins will have the upper-hand.

Minnesota Twins Note: Quick In-Game Injury Report

Ravuth Thorng — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 08:13:46 -0400

Today's start for the Twins continues a long line of injuries plaguing the Major Leagues. Whether it was lack of preparation during the off-season, or stretching their limits too early in the season, I don't know.

Pedro Martinez of the Mets went down early in his first start of the season putting him on the DL with a hamstring strain. Miguel Cabrera was scratched from the Tigers lineup, David DeJesus is day-to-day, and Kevin Slowey of the Twins is out with a strained right bicep.

There is no word yet of how serious this injury may be, but his spot in the rotation was not guaranteed to begin with.

Francisco Liriano was optioned to Class A ball to make a start, then was scheduled to make one in AAA before he rejoined the Major League club. That is where he, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn would battle it out for the two remaining rotation spots.

However, with today's turn of events and replacement Brian Bass being a guy that they really want to keep in the pen, would the Twins decide to call up Liriano earlier than expected?

Again, it is not certain how serious Slowey's injury is, but only time will tell. Meanwhile, if it does turn out to be worse than expected, look for the Twins to make a roster move. And the best arm they have is, guess who, Liriano.

New York Pride: My Run-Ins with Yankee Fans

Ravuth Thorng — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 07:19:43 -0400

Whenever I wear my OLD Johan Santana jersey, I get a lot of criticism from Floridians. Of course, Florida being the state with clusters of people from all over the country, there is never really one team that they cheer for.

Very few Floridians that I know are actually fans of Florida teams, either the Marlins or the Rays. Not to mention there is a huge rivalry in the Tampa-Bay Area, between the Rays fans, and Yankees minor league affiliate, the Tampa Yankees.

Being a DJ, and mixing a lot of parties and events in the Daytona Beach area, I have to deal with a lot of drunk people. However, one of the most frequent places I DJ is Red Tails Sports Bar, owned by a former Yankee minor league player Hank Foley.

Of course this place is known to be a Yankees bar. But Hank sponsors the Daytona Cubs, Single A Cubs affiliate, so he isn't biased to just the Yankees.

But the drunk, idiot, belligerent college kids that I have to deal with DJ'ing parties need to go play in heavy traffic or something, anything to get them off my back. There is something about the Yankee fans, not the ones at Yankee Stadium itself, but every place else you go, they are arrogant and stubborn.

Yes I agree, the Yankees are a great team, I am not taking anything away from that. But they were great in a different era. The Yankee Dynasty of the late 90s was a force that could not be stopped, except by greed.

The way I see it, the Yankee Dynasty ended when George Steinbrenner became obsessed with winning at all cost, even if it meant dishing out a $200+ million payroll.

Just like money can't buy happiness (aside from superficial), money cannot buy wins. Money buys a lot of great players with great egos. Too many times, big names get in each others way, and cannot work as a team, but instead are more worried about personal stats rather than the teams stats as a whole.

I won't crab and moan about the born and raised Yankee fans from New York, but it is the bandwagon fans that don't know anything about baseball that get on my nerve at the bar. The only thing that they know is what they've heard, and limited history, prime example 26 championships.

These are the type of fans that will blindly argue a point with you, but when they find out that you know more than them, all they can do is come back with a childish insult.

Now, back to the Santana jersey. I get a lot of beef from Yankee fans when I wear it at the bar. They always say that the Twins suck, and Santana will be in pinstripes (before the trade).

I usually just brush it off, and continue about my work, but a lot of them get belligerent and start personally attacking me. I usually turn and laugh in their faces.

One of the things that I usually say to shut them up is “yes the Yankees were great, I agree, but the Steinbrenner has ruined the team, because money cannot buy wins.” They always try to bring up 26 championships, but again that's all the information that these drunk fans usually know.

So I say, “the 2006 season, the Minnesota Twins won 96 games with a $70 million payroll, the Yankees won 97, with a $200+ million payroll. Now lets do the math, the Yankees payroll was almost three times that of the Twins, but they won only one more game. Does $130 million justify one more win?”

By this time the drunk, ill informed fan gives me a blank stare and says something along the lines of “well the Twins still (expletive) sucks.”

It just goes to show that buying an explosive lineup, and rotation is not always going to bring about success nor will it guarantee wins.

As for Yankee fans, I would like to reiterate, I do not hate the true, born and raised Yankee fans, but the bandwagon fans that want to be like you give you all a bad rep.

Minnesota Twins Notes: Outfield Strength Galore

Ravuth Thorng — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 19:21:06 -0400

My original gut feelings abut the Twins outfield so far has been proven wrong.

When Torii Hunter decided not to accept the Twins' offer, I was saddened that the All-Star Gold-Glove center fielder chose money over loyalty.

But then I realized that it wasn't as much the money, as the length of the contract.

I didn't feel so bad, and fully respected his decision.

If he was going to stay, he wanted to not have to worry about going anywhere for yearsto come, but the Twins didn't offer enough job security.

This got me to thinking during the offseason that the Twins, even without Hunter, still had a strong bevy of outfield talent—even before the Young and Gomez trades.

But my train of though was probably a lot different than most peoples.

First, I thought that they could move the very strong arm of Michael Cuddyer, who had the most outfield assists in the majors last season, to center, and have him flanked by Jason Kubel in left, and whoever was coming in, in right.

But this thought quickly died out when I spent more time contemplating the idea.

A center fielder needs more speed than he does a strong arm, considering all the field he must cover.

The acquisition of Delmon Young was an exciting one, given his amazing rookie season, and his run at possibly winning Rookie of the Year.

I was impressed with his speed, strong arm, and amazing accuracy—not to mention 15 outfield assists last season. Looks like we have another Cuddyer on our hands.

There were a couple other guys that could have filled in as well, Denard Span and Craig Monroe, but the arrival of Gomez dropped their playing times like a brick.

I was POed that the Twins received the short end of the stick when they traded Johan Santana for three pitching prospects and Carlos Gomez. I guess I let the situation cloud my decision about these players.

I never gave Gomez a chance and was surprised when he broke with the club out of spring training. But I'll tell you what, seeing three very strong arms, all of which have good speed (all three of them stole a base in the opener), really changed my opinion about these guys.

They have a guy that was almost Rookie of the Year, a guy that throws out the most people in the league, and a guy that blew his predecessors performance out of the water on Opening Day.

I see good things in the clubs' future. If runners were afraid to run against the Twins outfield before, I expect teams to be terrified now.

Look for teams to be more conservative on the base paths on balls hit right at the outfielders and look for outfield assists from all directions this season.

Should the Minnesota Twins Re-Sign Joe Nathan?

Ravuth Thorng — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 13:34:03 -0400

The biggest buzz this last off-season in the Twins bullpen was whether closer Joe Nathan would remain in the Twin Cities or not. Many Twins fans on this site believe that re-signing the All-Star closer was a bad choice given the rebuilding phase, and the improbability that they would make the playoffs.

A lot of fans see other arms in the pen as a better, and less expensive fit for the job. What many fans don't see is that the Twins have a closer among the same caliber as Mariano Rivera.

Last season, Rivera posted a 3-4 record, 3.15 ERA, 30 saves out of 34 save opportunities, and struck out 74 in 71 and a third innings pitched. Nathan posted a 4-2 record, 1.88 ERA, converted 37 saves out of 41 save opportunities, and struck out 77 in 71 and two-third inning pitched.

If the names were blanked out in front of the line scores, it would seem obvious that the better closer last year would be the second one. Yet, the DHL Delivery Man of the Year award was given to Rivera.

Nathan has proven proven that he can be a consistent closer, unlike his predecessors. Former Twins closers LaTroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado both had decent years as closers with Minnesota, but unlike Nathan, their success while with the Twins was short lived.

Hawkins was once a starter, but his lack of endurance as he got older made closing a more suitable option. He had an electric fastball in the mid to high 90s, but was really known for his big overhand breaking-ball. However, inconsistency and the tendency to give up big innings and blowing saves, which forced him to concede his job to Guardado.

“Everyday Eddie” was a good replacement after Hawkins' drop off, because he was a dependable arm and ready to go everyday. But he was never a great closer. Like Hawkins, Guardado had the tendency to give up a lot of baserunners, give up runs, and blowing a few saves here and there.

Some Twins fans began calling Guardado, “Heartbreak Eddie” because he would always cause a tense ninth inning, not knowing whether it was in the bag or not.

The Twins saw a void in the closer role as Guardado departed through Free Agency. They looked to their newly acquired Joe Nathan to fill the gap, not knowing what this setup man could accomplish. They took a chance with a guy that had never closed before, and found an All-Star in the making.

Since the Twins most likely aren't going to make the playoffs this rebuilding season, many fans on this website think that resigning the closer was a lost cause. Many see that the money should go to the new wave of young players to keep them for the long haul when they develop.

However, their logic on the money situation is flawed because of contract and arbitration eligibility.

Many of these new guys, have not had enough service to be eligible for arbitration. Barring a trade, the club owns the rights to negotiate with a player until they have fulfilled their service time, then they can file for free agency.

So saving money by not signing the closer does not really help anything money wise, because they are not able to get pay raises for a couple seasons to come.

Nathan just signed a contract for four years, making $47 million, breaking it down to $11.75 million a year. Rivera just signed a three-year, $45 million contract, without having Rivera type numbers the past couple of seasons.

Considering the numbers that Nathan has posted since he has been with the Twins, and compared to a “Great” closer like Rivera, the contract is well deserved.

Why risk losing a sure thing even though you are rebuilding? With four-fifths of the rotation consisting of guys under 27, they need more seasoned veterans to look up to and learn from.