Bleacher Report - Articles by Andy Bottoms

Cleaning the Fantasy Baseball Litter Box: Week Three

Andy Bottoms — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:56:17 -0400

With three weeks in the books, we’re getting to the point where thoughts of, “Oh, it’s just a slow start,” turn to “Sweet Jesus, I drafted this year’s Preston Wilson.” Fear not, avid readers; I’m here to sift through the fantasy dumpster to separate the treasure from the trash, as I do each week on RotoExperts.com.

Hitters

Garrett Atkins (1B/3B, COL)

There is growing speculation that Atkins will be traded before the deadline, although it's hard to believe the Rockies will get much for him except a couple cases of Natty Light and an autographed picture of Alf. Since his monster 2006, Atkins has seen his walk rate drop steadily from 11.6 percent to its current low of 5.9.

More disconcerting for fantasy owners is that his failure to deliver with runners in scoring position has carried over from last season. In 2008, Atkins hit a disappointing .225 with RISP, but the ineptitude has reached a new low with a .174 average in such situations this year.

In his defense, his current batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is more than 100 points below his career average, but most of his other numbers aren’t exactly trending in the right direction. Given Atkins’ home/road splits, fantasy owners better hope those trade rumors are wrong if they want him to retain any semblance of value.

Mike Aviles (2B/SS, KAN)

Right now Aviles is striking out more than I did with sober girls in college. Seriously, the guy already has 14 Ks compared to just one walk. He looked like a promising middle infielder in 102 games after a 2008 call-up, thanks in part to a crazy .359 BABIP. 2009 has been a different story with just a .244 BABIP, but that isn't the only thing that’s taken a turn for the worse.

His groundball-to-fly ball ratio is up to 2.36 after finishing at 1.39 last season, and that lack of fly balls has led to just two extra-base hits and no homers. Aviles’ strikeout rate is also nearly double what he posted last year, and it’s not at all in line with his minor league numbers.

The good news is he's actually cut down on his swings at pitches out of the zone, which should pay dividends in the near future. His struggles may have gotten him dropped down to the bottom third of the Kansas City order, but don’t drop him onto the waiver wire yet.

Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA)

I’m sick of the hype around Kendrick. Sure, he's a career .300 hitter, but outside of that he is about as useful to your fantasy squad as Al Davis on draft day. He's never logged 100 games in a season, doesn't hit for power, doesn't drive in many runs, and doesn't steal bases.

In 2009, he has an ugly .230 average to go with an abysmal walk-to-strikeout rate of 0.07 courtesy of 14 punchouts and just one free pass. His BABIP is over 70 points lower than his career mark, so that accounts for some of his struggles given that his swing and contact rates line up with his historical numbers.

Pitchers are challenging him with more fastballs, and you can expect that to continue as long as Kendrick struggles to catch up. His career numbers would indicate he's due for a correction, but once he heats up, look to deal him before he gets hurt.

Dioner Navarro (C, TAM)

Navarro was a pleasant surprise behind the plate in 2008, but like the Rays, he's off to a cold start so far this year. His 24.1 strikeout percentage is uncharacteristic of a player whose career worst was 15.3 percent entering this season.

At the plate, his contact rate on pitches outside of the strike zone has dropped back in line with his career norms, which has contributed to an overall contact rate that’s fallen about seven percent from 2008. When Navarro is making contact, he's hitting significantly more fly balls than usual, which aren't exactly translating to home runs.

Given the lack of quality backstops, those of you in two-catcher leagues have to ride this out. However, those of you in single-catcher leagues might want to look at John Baker (C, FLA) or Kurt Suzuki (C, OAK) as potential replacements.

Pablo Sandoval (C/1B/3B, SF)

After catching 11 games in 2008, many fantasy owners coveted Sandoval on draft day given his eligibility behind the dish and impressive showing late last year. Instead of rewarding them with solid play, Sandoval has done the fantasy equivalent of sleeping with your wife while letting a rabid monkey babysit your kids.

The biggest difference is his strikeout percentage, which is sitting at 19.7 right now compared to 9.7 a season ago. His contact rate on pitches in the zone is down 10 percent, and given that just 40.3 percent of the pitches he sees are strikes, you'd think he would have drawn more than two walks.

Sandoval is just 22 and is bound to go through his share of ups and downs, but I definitely can't see dropping him in leagues where he’s eligible at catcher. In other leagues though, you may want to see if Chris Duncan (1B/OF, STL), Mark Teahen (1B/3B/OF, KAN), Scott Rolen (3B, TOR), or Mike Jacobs (1B, KAN) are available as potential alternatives.

Sandoval’s average will get better, but he's unlikely to hit more than a dozen homers and won't drive in many runs for an offensively challenged Giants squad.

Pitchers

Kevin Gregg (RP, CHC)

Not much has gone right for Gregg since being named the Cubs closer. Sure, he hasn't been found in Mark Chmura's hot tub with a high school dance squad, but still.

The good news is that his rate of 11.57 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is the best of his career. The bad news is that his walks per nine (BB/9) is by far the worst of his career, which is related to the fact that he's throwing strikes just 41.9 percent of the time. Gregg is using a lot more sliders, which seem to be contributing to the strikeouts but hurting his overall control.

Figuring out Lou Piniella is a crapshoot, but I don't see Gregg being completely shut out of the mix for saves. That said, he isn't getting 30 saves this year, but I think 15 is a possibility.

Francisco Liriano (SP, MIN)

Obviously the 0-4 record is a cause for concern, but are things really that bad for Liriano owners? A closer look at his stats would tell you that he's not turning into Esteban Loaiza, but he's also no longer the second coming of Johan Santana (SP, NYM) that Twins fans were hoping for.

Liriano’s K/9 has decreased from 12.55 in 2006 to this season's 7.06 mark, and his strikeout-to-walk rate has gone from 4.71 to 1.89 over that same time frame. His groundball rate has also dropped dramatically, and he has changed the mix of his pitches since undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Today, Liriano uses his fastball over 60 percent of the time compared to just 43.6 in his career year of 2007, while his slider percentage has dropped 10 percent, likely the result of trying to put less strain on his arm. Liriano is also throwing strikes just 45.1 percent of the time, which is down about 10 percent from his career numbers.

What does all that mean? Well, if you think he's going to be the dominant player from 2007, then my guess is you have a few empty bottles of Jack in your house. If you can find someone who does think that though, look to make a deal.

Ricky Nolasco (SP, FLA)

Nolasco was arguably last season's biggest mound surprise, and there were questions coming into this season whether he could repeat it after last year's workload. If you look only at his 1-2 record and 6.86 ERA, things look about as promising as a road trip with Donte' Stallworth. However, Nolasco’s K/9 is right around his career numbers, and his homers allowed are down.

So why are the other numbers so bad? For one, he has a .390 BABIP, which is bound to come down. Also, Nolasco has stranded just 57.2 percent of baserunners allowed compared to just over 75 percent last season. Expect those numbers to normalize, which should lead to an improvement in his record and ERA.

Nolasco is not a one-year wonder, but don't let that stop you from trying to convince his owner of that in trade negotiations.

Oliver Perez (SP, NYM)

For the last few years, Ollie has been a popular late/cheap source for strikeouts. At this point though, it looks questionable as to whether those Ks are worth it at the expense of a WHIP and ERA on the level of R.A. Dickey (SP, MIN).

Like countless other Mets starters, Perez is off to a poor start, which has manager Jerry Manuel threatening to overhaul the rotation. The question is whether Perez owners should look to make a similar move.

His current 7.20 BB/9 would say yes, as would the fact that he's inducing fewer ground balls. Given his control issues, batters are also chasing fewer pitches outside of the strike zone, which doesn't bode well for the punchouts he was drafted for.

Obviously his ERA won't hover close to 8.00 all year, but I would rather look at players owned in fewer leagues like Anibal Sanchez (SP, FLA) and Ian Snell (SP, PIT) who have more upside.

Finally, make sure that you check out all of the great fantasy baseball analysis and insight at RotoExperts.com, and be sure to join us for our weekly chat at 9:00 ET on Sunday nights.

Cleaning the Fantasy Baseball Litter Box: Week Two

Andy Bottoms — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:30:30 -0400

Given the performance of my teams so far, it looks like I picked the right year to start writing this column at RotoExperts.com. My rosters are turning into a "who’s who" of futility both at the plate and on the mound, but hopefully I can suppress my frustration long enough to share some useful information and analysis.

Hitters

Rick Ankiel (OF, STL)

Ankiel appeared to be the perfect sleeper candidate for 2009. He posted a line of .269-20-49 over the first 81 games of 2008 before an abdominal injury derailed his second half. With that as backdrop, it seemed only natural to expect big things from him over a full year.

However, the first couple weeks may have the Cardinals contemplating moving this former pitcher back to the mound or into a role as the guy who replaces the urinal cakes.

So what is Ankiel doing differently this season? The first thing to jump out is that his groundball-to-fly ball rate has gone from 0.82 to 1.27, and I hear it’s tough to hit homers if you can’t get the ball in the air. Ankiel is also swinging at far fewer pitches in the strike zone (64.5 percent versus 78.7 last year), and his struggles against southpaws have continued.

In a crowded St. Louis outfield with Ryan Ludwick (OF, STL), Colby Rasmus (OF, STL), and Chris Duncan (1B/OF, STL), there's just no way he plays everyday. It's still reasonable to expect him to hit close to 20 bombs, but I would look for other options until he heats up, maybe even the aforementioned Duncan, who brings multi-position eligibility to the party.

Jay Bruce (OF, CIN)

After bursting onto the scene during his first week in the majors, Bruce wore down and struggled to close out the 2008 season. Still, his power potential and generous home ballpark had fantasy owners drooling over the 22-year-old, whose .250 batting average seemingly had nowhere to go but up.

Instead, Bruce has gotten out of the gate slower than Vince Young on the Wonderlic test, with a .176 average and 10 strikeouts in 34 at-bats. A paltry .217 Batting Average on Balls In Play is obviously contributing, but given the frequency with which he's popping the ball up on the infield, don’t expect that to improve until he starts hitting more line drives.

Bruce’s struggles against southpaws (.190 last year and .091 this year) have prompted Reds manager Dusty Baker to drop him in the order versus lefties.

Bruce is far too young to give up on, but right now he belongs on your bench until his peripherals show signs of improvement.

Edwin Encarnacion (3B, CIN)

I've lost track of the number of times Encarnacion has been tagged as a breakout candidate over the past few seasons, but inconsistency at the plate and incompetence in the field have kept him from fulfilling those expectations.

On the surface, his .172 average in 2009 would tell you this is shaping up to be yet another disappointment, but a closer look shows reason for optimism.

First, Encarnacion's career walk percentage was a measly 9.0 entering this season, but it's over 25 this year thanks to having drawn 10 free passes already. This has also led to a walk/strikeout rate that is nearly three times what he posted in 2008, thanks in large part to a healthy decrease in swings at pitches outside the strike zone.

His BABIP is incredibly low, and given his seemingly newfound batting eye, I think it's worth waiting it out with Encarnacion, especially given the general lack of depth at the hot corner this year.

J.J. Hardy (SS, MIL)

Take solace, Hardy owners. April has always been his worst month, and 2009 looks to be no exception, with a .125 average and strikeout rate approaching 25 percent. Look on the bright side—two of his five hits have cleared the fence!

Interestingly enough, that home run stroke may be causing some of his issues, as Hardy has hit more fly balls than usual. He's also swinging at fewer pitches both inside and outside of the zone, which clearly isn't translating into an increase in walks since he has just one.

That being said, Hardy is one of the more streaky fantasy players around, so his track record would indicate he'll eventually get hot and turn it around. However, if you have other lineup options, it wouldn't be a bad idea to use them while he's doing his Royce Clayton impersonation.

Chris Iannetta (C, COL)

The good news is that 100 percent of Iannetta's hits have been home runs. The bad news is that he’s hit one home run. The biggest surprise for Iannetta is the uncharacteristic rash of strikeouts, with 10 in just 21 at-bats. You’d think this is the result of him chasing a lot of pitches outside the zone, but given that he's swinging at fewer than 12 percent of such pitches, that isn’t the case.

Iannetta has even improved his contact rate on pitches inside the zone, but the issue is that he's swinging at fewer of the strikes he does see.

There are three main reasons the Rockies won't be giving up on him soon. First, he just turned 26. Second, their backup catcher is Yorvit Torrealba (C, COL). Finally, he signed up to bring the deviled eggs to the team potluck this week, and if you think you can have a potluck without deviled eggs, just stop reading now because you're dead to me.

Justin Upton (OF, ARI)

After picking up two hits Saturday, Upton has raised his average 185 points since April 13 all the way up to, well, .185. Look, he's only 21 and already is in his third season in the bigs, which is a real accomplishment. When I was 21, I was eating cereal for dinner out of a giant serving bowl and helping O.J. search for the real killer.

However, that doesn't erase the fact that Upton’s striking out in over 35 percent of his at-bats while constantly trying to crank the ball out of the park. You know who else knows that? Major league pitchers.

That's why they're giving him fewer pitches in the strike zone and allowing him to get himself out. Upton is doing his part by swinging at more pitches outside the zone than last year (34 percent versus 23.8) while making much less contact with those offerings (29.4 compared to 50.5).

He has shown signs of life the past few games, but you're sacrificing an awful lot to get the 20 homers he's expected to hit. I cannot explain why he is owned in significantly more leagues than Chris Duncan, Daniel Murphy (OF, NYM), and Jeremy Hermida (OF, FLA).

Pitchers

Jon Lester (SP, BOS)

I loved Lester entering this season, so obviously I was hoping for more than an 0-2 record and 9.00 ERA after his first two starts. Am I scared? Absolutely not.

The only thing I'm scared of right now is that I somehow get entered into a competitive eating contest that requires me to eat massive quantities of Hot Pockets.

As for Lester, his strikeouts and walks per nine innings are both the best of his career, and hitters are making less contact against him than they did a season ago. He's also stranded less than 60 percent of his baserunners compared to over 75 percent for his career, and his BABIP is absurdly high. If you own Lester, stick with him, and if you don’t, see if his owner is starting to panic.

Huston Street (RP, COL)

By most measures, Street didn't really out-pitch bullpen mate Manny Corpas (RP, COL) to win the closer's job this spring, and now he's lost it. However, given that the Rockies would like to eventually deal Street this season, it made sense that they use him early in save situations as an audition for potential suitors.

At this point, such a trade seems unlikely unless a team just wants to bring him in and tell their pitchers, "Hey, at least you aren't as bad as this guy." Street's WHIP is nearly 2.75, he's allowed two homers in just 3.2 innings, and hitters are making contact on over 85 percent of his pitches when they swing the bat. He's also stranded more runners than usual, so his numbers could be even worse.

Edinson Volquez (SP, CIN)

It kills me to include yet another Red here, but the truth hurts. Sure, it doesn’t hurt as much as getting mauled by a bear or getting your arm caught in a combine, but you get the idea. Volquez was terrific early on in his rookie season before fading down the stretch, and he also battled control problems at times, and those issues have been on full display this year.

His BB/9 is at 7.71 after two starts, and he's throwing strikes less than 40 percent of the time. Volquez's groundball-to-fly ball rate has more than doubled, yet somehow his home runs allowed per nine innings also sit dangerously close to 3.00.

With opponents offering at fewer pitches outside the zone and making contact nearly 94 percent of the time when they swing at strikes, it’s clear that Volquez just isn’t fooling hitters right now. Entering this year, I thought it was very unrealistic to see him repeat last season's numbers, and I am even more convinced of that now.

Finally, make sure that you check out all of the great fantasy baseball analysis and insight at RotoExperts.com, and be sure to join us for our weekly chat at 9:00 ET on Sunday nights.

All statistics through Saturday’s action.

Which players are crippling your fantasy squads? E-mail Andy at Bottoms@rotoexperts.com with your fantasy baseball thoughts, rants, and conundrums.

Cleaning the Fantasy Baseball Litter Box: Week One

Andy Bottoms — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:09:27 -0400

Each week on RotoExperts.com, I scoop the turds from the fantasy baseball litter box and take a closer look at the players killing your teams. After looking back at 2008 in the first two columns, the fantasy baseball season finally started with a bang last week.

That bang, of course, was the sound caused by every pitcher I own dousing himself in gasoline and proceeding to light a match. I shouldn't need to tell you that the season is a marathon and not a sprint, although quite frankly one look at me would tell you I'm not exactly a running enthusiast.

However, it is important not to make rash decisions because your sleepers are still snoozing or because some of your players appear to have a better chance of riding to the ballpark on a unicorn than getting a hit.

Hitters

Chris Davis (1B/3B, TEX)

The Rangers hung 29 runs on Cleveland during a three-game sweep, so you'd think that Davis would have actually contributed to that hit parade. Instead, he was more like the drunk guy at the parade eating cotton candy and lifting his shirt to get beads that weren't actually being handed out.

Anyway, Davis ended the week with just one hit and nine strikeouts in 18 at-bats. Entering 2009, the biggest area of doubt was his plate discipline after drawing just 20 free passes in 317 plate appearances last season and swinging at 37.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (the league average is around 25 percent).

The power numbers will come, but a repeat of last year’s .280 average will be tough without an improved eye at the plate.

Jed Lowrie (3B/SS, BOS)

How poorly do you have to play for Red Sox fans to starting asking when Julio Lugo (SS, BOS) will be back? Just look at Lowrie's numbers and you'll find the answer.

He has struck out in nearly half of his plate appearances and is hitting .056 through Boston's first five games. The strikeouts are uncharacteristic given his track record, and he's hitting too many fly balls based on his lack of pop.

Lowrie did have a hot spring (.343), but once Lugo returns he's sure to steal some at-bats and likely make Lowrie expendable to your fantasy squad.

Lastings Milledge (OF, WAS)

Milledge was a popular sleeper pick entering the 2009 season, but he's started out slower than Joba Chamberlain (SP, NYY) on a field sobriety test. Milledge has no extra-base hits in 20 plate appearances and has struck out nine times.

His strikeout percentage has not been an area of his concern over his career, and he's not chasing a ton of pitches outside the strike zone. Overall, he's just taking more pitches than normal, which may be related to his transition to the leadoff spot.

If someone in your league has a quick trigger and releases Milledge, feel free to pick him up and be confident that his average will get back in the .270 range.

Alexei Ramirez (2B/SS/OF, CHW)

Even after picking up his first two hits of the season on Saturday, the Cuban Missile is definitely having a crisis at the plate. Get it, Cuban Missile Crisis? Come on, you can’t get that mix of fantasy baseball and U.S. foreign policy just anywhere.

Anyway, Ramirez's struggles are rooted in his complete lack of plate discipline. In his rookie season of 2008, he swung at 42.7 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, although he managed to make contact on two-thirds of those.

However, it's hard to sustain peak performance while doing that, and the fact that through the first week of this season Alexei is swinging at an astounding 56.8 percent of pitches outside the zone doesn't instill confidence in the fantasy community.

A hot start could have moved him toward the top of the order, but for now, his owners have no choice but to wait out the slump.

Delmon Young (OF, MIN)

Are we to the point yet where we just admit that Young is a bust and move on? Through his first two full seasons he has looked like a guy whose ceiling is that of a 12-12 player as opposed to 20-20.

The biggest thing holding him back is a failure to improve his plate discipline, most notably his ability to take a walk. His walk percentage is under five percent for his career, and his BB/K rate is a woeful 0.24.

In a crowded Minnesota outfield, Young is quickly finding himself the odd man out after riding the pine for three of the first six games. I am simply amazed that he is owned in more leagues than guys like Daniel Murphy (OF, NYM), Ryan Spilborghs (OF, COL), or even Nyjer Morgan (OF, PIT).

Pitchers

Cliff Lee (SP, CLE)

Hey, remember when Lee won the Cy Young? OK, maybe it's a little too early to forget, but at this rate it won't be long. Like every Tribe starter, Lee has been woeful and ended the opening week with two losses, a 9.90 ERA, and an equally vomit-inducing 2.20 WHIP.

Don't forget that this is a guy whose K/BB rate last season was twice his career mark, and he posted a 1.31 groundball/fly ball ratio as opposed to a career mark of 0.84. Obviously it won't be this bad all season, but if Lee strings together a few solid outings, you may want to think about dealing him while you can.

Jason Motte (RP, STL)

I typically wait on closers, and every year I end up with a guy who gets flat-out embarrassed during the first week. To Motte's credit, he managed to avoid posting the infamous ERA of infinity, which occurs when conventional mathematics are unable to calculate the degree to which a pitcher sucked.

Still, Motte yielded four runs in his first inning of work to blow a save against Pittsburgh on Opening Day. Since then, he was passed over for a save chance by Dennys freaking Reyes (RP, STL), got yanked from another save opportunity after recording just one out, and was called upon in the sixth inning of Saturday’s game.

I think the whole week can be chalked up to a learning experience, and it's not like there's another established candidate in the Cardinal pen. So while the saves could be sporadic now, I still like Motte for the long haul.

Carl Pavano (SP, CLE)

Sometimes no matter how bad you expect something to be, it ends up being twice as bad. This phenomenon, previously known as the Billy Ray Cyrus Effect, has now been reclassified as Carl Pavano Syndrome.

He earned this honor by allowing nine earned runs in one-plus inning of work, including a pair of home runs. Well done, Carl.

B.J. Ryan (RP, TOR)

Despite a loss of velocity on his fastball, Ryan remained effective in spring training, but that has not translated into the regular season. In his first outing he blew a save but eventually lucked into a win.

Then, in a non-save situation on Saturday, Ryan allowed three runs and five baserunners in just two-thirds of an inning before getting the hook. It's clear that he just isn't the same guy that he was before arm surgery, and if you own Ryan, pick up Scott Downs (RP, TOR) as insurance.

Chien-Ming Wang (SP, NYY)

To say that Wang's first start was disappointing is like saying that Saved by the Bell: The New Class was only a little worse than the original. The fact that he didn't strike anyone out wasn't terribly surprising given his career K/9 (4.00) and K/BB rate (1.55), but getting lit up by the Orioles isn't exactly reassuring.

However, Wang hadn't made a regular season start in 10 months, so fantasy owners should hope he got all the rust off in one outing. Given his track record and what should typically be above-average run support, Wang is still worth owning.

Also, for those who have questioned my maturity, I just talked about guys named B.J. and Wang and didn't crack a joke. Just saying.

Brandon Webb (SP, ARI)

If there are five scarier words for a guy to hear than, "He saw Dr. James Andrews," I haven't heard them. OK, maybe "It burns when I pee" is up there, but you get my point.

After struggling in his first outing, we found out that Webb would skip his next start and subsequently learned that he paid a visit to Dr. Andrews to examine his ailing shoulder. The good news is that no abnormal damage was found, but you can't help but be worried about arm issues this early on.

Webb has thrown at least 208 innings for five straight years, so on the one hand he has shown tremendous durability. On the other hand, that kind of workload could be catching up with him. Webb’s owners need to hope for the former.

Finally, I wanted to close with a quick comment on the tragic death of Nick Adenhart and extend my condolences to his family, friends, and teammates. The loss of a public figure due to someone driving under the influence brings additional focus on something that happens far too often.

I’d be lying if I said there hadn’t been times when I was younger and dumber where I drove home when I shouldn’t have. However, now that I have a family I cannot fathom the thought of having that taken from me or taking it from someone else. I would urge you to keep that in mind the next time you’re out at the bar when it’s time to head home.

Make sure that you stop by RotoExperts.com to check out more of our fantasy baseball insight with new articles and analysis posted daily.

All stats through Saturday's games.

Which players ruined the start of the season for you? E-mail Andy at Bottoms@rotoexperts.com with your fantasy baseball thoughts, rants, and conundrums.

Cleaning the Fantasy Baseball Litterbox: Hitters

Andy Bottoms — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 09:16:20 -0400

Last week on RotoExperts.com I unveiled the pitching staff of a team I aptly named "Guys I Wanted to Beat with a Rake from the Grounds Crew" based on their horrible fantasy performances in 2008. Today, I’m back to reveal the position players who choked their way onto this dubious squad. To commemorate their selection, each will be presented with a plaque featuring a flaming bag of defecant since that is exactly what they left on the doorsteps of fantasy owners last season.

Victor Martinez (C/1B, CLE) - Entering 2008, V-Mart had averaged 147 games, 21 homers, 99 RBI, 78 runs, and a .302 average over the previous four seasons, so it was reasonable for fantasy owners to draft him early at a traditionally weak position. However, the normally durable backstop tweaked his hammy in the season opener which proved to be the tip of the injury iceberg.

The hamstring ailment eventually gave way to an elbow problem that required surgery and kept Martinez out for two and a half months. All of that contributed to a measly two home runs in 266 at-bats, with both dingers coming over the season's final 16 games where he hit .288 with 14 RBI and 12 runs. Given his strong finish, a solid spring (.283-3-13), and his previously limited injury history, I am inclined to believe 2008 was merely an aberration.

The emergence of Kelly Shoppach(C, CLE) will make it easier to give Martinez more time at first base or DH in an effort to keep him fresh, so expect a return to the upper echelon of fantasy catchers.

Carlos Pena (1B, TB) - While there were an abundance of great storylines on the Rays last year, Pena wasn't one of them. His storybook season came a year earlier when he smacked 46 homers and drove in 121 runs while hitting .282 with a .411 OBP. However, in seasons prior to 2007 where he had over 100 at-bats, Pena had never hit over .250 and had never posted an OBP above .340.

So it wasn’t a complete shock that he took a step back in 2008. Pena cranked 31 homers despite hitting just .247, but take away an August where he went .278-9-29 with a .450 OBP, and 2008 could have been even worse. He hit a meager .190 versus lefties (compared to .271 in '07) and struck out in just over a third of his at-bats.

Is he a safe bet for 30 bombs again in 2009? Well, is it a safe bet that everyone arrested on Cops will be shirtless regardless of gender? Obviously the answer to both of these questions is yes, but if you drafted Pena's power I hope you picked up some solid hitters to offset his .250 average.

Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL) - Before last season, Weeks toyed with fantasy owners by showing just enough flashes of excellence between stretches of ineptitude to keep them coming back. To avoid similar confusion in 2008, Weeks decided to completely eliminate the excellence from his game and focus entirely on sucking for the first two months.

Sure that .211 average in May looks pretty rough, but not when you compare it to his .202 performance in April. Weeks also endeared himself to the Miller Park crowd by hitting a robust .209 with just three of his 14 homers coming at home. With that, I will conclude today's lesson on the use of sarcasm in writing.

As usual, Weeks did show some improvement after the break, particularly in September. The problem is that by then he was platooning with Ray Durham, who the Brew Crew acquired only because Weeks was so abysmal in the first place. Outside of his rookie year where he batted .279 in 359 at-bats, Weeks has never hit above .235. I think nearly 900 at-bats since then is a large enough sample to feel confident there won't be significant improvement now.

Sure he'll steal your team 20-25 bags and hit around 15 homers, but are those numbers worth it at the expense of a horrible average? I think not. Kids, treat Rickie Weeks like drugs and just say no.

Alex Gordon (3B, KC) - Like Weeks, Gordon is a top prospect who has disappointed owners with his inconsistency. Unlike Weeks though, Gordon does actually appear to be improving, albeit at a rate less than what the fantasy community would prefer. He increased his runs scored by 12 and his homers by one in 17 fewer games last season while also improving his batting average and OBP.

However, when you look at his splits against righties and lefties he looks like the perfect candidate for a platoon. Against right-handers, Gordon hit 15 of his 16 round-trippers and tallied 49 of his 59 RBI, which basically means that he hit like the Hamburglar against southpaws. OK, so I've never actually seen the Hamburglar hit, but the guy’s wearing a hamburger suit for the love of God! How is he going to turn on an inside pitch?!

Anyway, at age 25, the Royals aren't going to start sitting Gordon against lefties, but it's imperative that he shows improvement in that area this season. Due to his lack of consistency, he isn't likely to hit over .275 yet, but 20 homers and 15 steals aren't unrealistic expectations for this season.

Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) - Rumor has it that Tulo tore his left quad on purpose to take the focus off of his poor play. Admittedly, I started those rumors, but it's not that outlandish given that he was hitting .152 when the "injury" took place. Later in the season he missed more time after slicing his hand open while taking out some frustration on his Louisville Slugger. I can understand that one though, because when things go wrong for me at work I just start slamming my keyboard against the copy machine or random passersby.

Some good news though is that Tulowitzki raked against lefties at a .330 clip, but he failed to use Coors Field to his advantage with a .243 average and just four home runs in 177 home at-bats. He finished strong in 2008 by going .330-3-14 in 88 September at-bats along with a .389 second-half OBP. Even with the trade of Matt Holliday(OF, OAK) in the offseason, there's no way Tulowitzki does another Kevin Elster impersonation this season.

In fact, I think he has a good chance to be a top Five shortstop this year when it's all said and done.

Jeff Francoeur (OF, ATL) - If you’re looking for encouraging numbers from Francoeur's 2008 season, skip ahead because I sure as hell couldn't find any. He played just seven fewer games than in 2007, but his average dipped 54 points, RBI plummeted by 34, and homers decreased by eight. With runners in scoring position he hit a paltry .192, and he also struggled against pitchers. Not lefties or righties specifically, but pitchers...in ballparks.

Basically the only way it could have been worse is if he had started working on a mime routine in the outfield while singing the best of Bette Midler and wearing one of those beer helmets. Francoeur's BB/K rate is notoriously bad, so don't expect his batting average to approach the .293 he put up in 2007. Still he's only 25 and has shown power potential with 73 doubles over the past two seasons. If some of those turn into homers, he could turn out to be a nice bargain as a late flyer. His spring numbers also provide reason for optimism with a .328 average and 13 RBI.

Frenchie also got the season off to a good start with a homer off of Brett Myers (SP, PHI) on Sunday night.

Kosuke Fukudome (OF, CHC) - Due to his hot hitting early in the season, Wrigleyville t-shirt vendors made some serious cash by marketing "Fukudome Is My Homie" shirts, but by the end of the year, Cubs manager Lou Piniella was allegedly printing up "Fukudome = Tuffy Rhodes" shirts in his basement. After a .327 April, Fukudome's average dropped each month and eventually bottomed out during a .178 September.

The fact that he ended up in a platoon with Reed Johnson(OF, CHC) tells you all you need to know. His .251 average against right-handers was 25 points lower than his numbers against southpaws, but he hit all 10 of his homers and posted 42 of 58 his RBI against righties. Fukudome’s spring training at-bats were fairly limited due to his participation in the World Baseball Classic.

In the WBC, he posted a deceiving .407 OBP thanks to seven walks, but had just four singles in 20 tournament at-bats.

Nick Swisher (1B/OF, NYY) - No one expected a career .250 hitter to all of a sudden improve his average, but it was reasonable to expect a moderate increase in home runs when Swisher moved from Oakland's cavernous Coliseum to the Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field. Well, if by moderate increase you were thinking two then you were one of few fantasy owners not to be kicked in the junk by Swisher's disappointing 2008 campaign. Just think how much worse his .219 season average would have been had he not hit .315 in June.

Swisher suffered through three months where he hit under .200, and he achieved similar levels of futility against lefties, on the road, and after the All-Star break. Swisher’s woeful performance earned him a trade to the Yankees where playing time is by no means a guarantee with a glut of outfield options who, unlike Swisher, actually appear capable of outhitting Mark Lemke.

Now that the season is underway, I will start to focus on players who are already off to slow starts. That means you Brandon Webb (SP, ARI)! Check back for that and more at RotoExperts.com as well as here on the Bleacher Report.

Which 2008 hitters would you like to hit with a fungo bat? E-mail Andy at Bottoms@rotoexperts.com with your fantasy baseball thoughts, rants, and conundrums.

Cleaning the Fantasy Baseball Litterbox: Pitchers

Andy Bottoms — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 12:44:35 -0400

Each week on RotoExperts.com, I write a column called Slumps and Dumps where I scoop the turds from the fantasy baseball litterbox by looking at the players who are tanking and consequently dragging your team down with them.

Part of that process is meant be therapeutic for fantasy owners who just need to get it off their chest and bash a few of their players. Some of you may even opt to plot intricate scenarios by which your paths could cross so you could scream belligerently at them if only for a few glorious seconds. Hey, who am I to judge?

The other (and more important) goal of this column is to examine the possibility that these clowns return to the realm of the useful or whether you should dump them like Robbie Alomar.

Since the season has just begun, the first two columns present a look back at some of last year's biggest busts. With that in mind, I have assembled the rotation and bullpen for a team that I affectionately refer to as "Guys I Wanted to Beat With a Rake From the Grounds Crew."

Erik Bedard (SP, SEA)

I am moderately ashamed to admit that I was sucked into the Bedard hype machine after the offseason trade that moved him out of the hitter-heavy AL East and into a great pitcher's park in Seattle. That confidence was rewarded with a 6-4 record in 15 starts before a shoulder injury cut short his season. Bedard's WHIP ballooned from 1.14 in 2007 to 1.32 last year (which is actually right around his career average), and his BB/9 IP also shot up from 2.82 to 4.11. All of this is a statistical way to say that I wanted to run him down with the bullpen car. So what can you expect this year?

Well, one thing you should not expect is 200 innings since Bedard has never hit that mark in his career. His spring numbers seemed decent with just one earned run allowed in first 8.1 innings, but he was lit up for six earned runs in his final start. He ended up with nine walks with a 1.76 WHIP and failed to pitch into the fourth inning in any of his outings. Bedard was also scratched from a start due to sore buttocks, and anyone who owned him last year knows that feeling all too well.

Fausto Carmona (SP, CLE)

While I am not fluent in any foreign languages, I did learn last year that Fausto loosely translates to "ball four." Carmona followed up his 19-8 season in 2007 with an injury-shortened campaign where he walked 70 batters while striking out just 58 in 120.2 innings.

Did I mention that his ERA was 5.44 and his WHIP topped 1.60? He somehow managed to go 4-2 with a 3.10 ERA in the first half despite a 23/38 K/BB rate. That is not a typo. Carmona really did walk 15 more batters than he struck out. Surprisingly, walks must be the key to his success because he improved on that rate in the second half and wound up with a 7.61 ERA after the break.

Supposedly he has recovered from hip surgery, but he also pitched 230 total innings in 2007 which could have lingering effects even into 2009. Outside of Carmona's eight spring walks in 27 innings, a number of his stats are encouraging, most notably his 48/19 groundout/flyout ratio and a 2.67 ERA.

The Indians have a solid offense which should help Carmona rack up some wins, but his other numbers won't be too much help to your squad. That said, you didn't waste a high pick or a bunch of money on him this year so if he starts slow you won't feel obligated to hold onto him for too long.

Aaron Harang (SP, CIN)

The Cincinnati right-hander led the NL in strikeouts back in 2006, but last season he topped the majors in a far less glamorous category: losses. He nearly doubled up to lead the league in home runs allowed but was edged out by human batting tee Brandon Backe (SP, HOU).

A forearm injury contributed to Harang's struggles, but the real concern was the fact that he pitched over 230 innings in both 2006 and 2007 only to see the Reds subsequently hire career killer Dusty Baker as their manager. Last season's K/BB rate fell to 3.06 after hitting 4.19 in 2007, but Harang did seem to finally regain his groove over his final eight starts of 2008 with a 2.83 ERA and 38 punchouts in 54 innings.

The bad news is that he still served up seven homers in that span and followed it up with an inconsistent spring. For instance, in one start Harang tossed six no-hit innings (albeit against the Pirates), but in his prior outing he allowed six runs in 3.1 innings. Harang did shed 25 pounds in the offseason which should help his durability and hopefully his fantasy performance. I think he was worth the draft day gamble based on where his Average Draft Position ended up.

Brett Myers (SP, PHI)

Let's focus on the positives for Myers: He made it through his second straight season without punching his wife in public. However, the Ike Turner wannabe did fail to spend the entire season in the majors after allowing an astounding 24 homers in the first half.

Myers did respond well to his stint in the minors by going 7-4 including two complete games after the break with a 3.06 ERA and 75 Ks in 88.1 innings. He was awful away from home as evidenced by his 6.21 road ERA but pitched well in the post season and will look to carry that momentum into 2009.

After being jerked between the rotation and the bullpen the past couple seasons, Myers enters 2009 firmly entrenched as a starter which should help him get off to a better start. I like his chances to rebound as well as anyone on this list in spite of a first outing that saw him give up three homers in two innings on Sunday night.

Justin Verlander (SP, DET)

After posting at least 17 wins and a sub-3.70 ERA in each of his first two seasons, Verlander crashed back to Earth in 2008. His velocity was down as he tied the aforementioned Harang with 17 losses along with a 4.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Verlander increased his walks by 20 batters in essentially the same amount of innings pitched as in 2007 and was bad both on the road and at home.

In summary, he pitched like Carl Pavano (SP, CLE) circa every year except 2004. Verlander has posted a 3.90 ERA this spring despite 16 walks compared to 15 strikeouts in 32.1 innings, but he did have a stretch where he allowed just one earned run and five hits over three outings (18 IP). Still, his ADP placed him at the end of round 10 and ahead of guys like Ricky Nolasco (SP, FLA), Adam Wainwright (SP, STL), Javier Vazquez (SP, ATL), and Josh Johnson (SP, FLA) which to me was a stretch. I would much rather have any of those guys on my team.

Manny Corpas (RP, COL)

The ever volatile world of closers strikes again. Corpas finished 2007 with 19 saves, a 2.08 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. However, he struggled early and often in 2008 and ended up with just four saves and a reduced strikeout rate to go with Borowski-esque ERA and WHIP numbers. A large culprit was the fact that his groundout-to-flyout rate fell from 2.29 to 1.75, but he ended up pitching better in the second half after being forcibly removed from the pressure of the closer's role.

For reasons unbeknownst to anyone living outside of a mental facility, the Rockies acquired Huston Street (RP, COL) in the offseason, and he ended up winning the closer competition with Corpas this spring. Given that the Rockies want to audition Street for potential trade suitors, I think he keeps the gig for a while even if he struggles early, rendering Corpas a handcuff option at best.

Rafael Betancourt (RP, CLE)

In order to draft a set-up man, a few things have to be in place. First, they have to put up absurdly good numbers. In 2007, Betancourt posted a 5-1 record with a 1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts compared to just nine walks in 79.1 innings, so he clearly met that requirement. Second, they need to have a good chance to assume the closer's job. Entering the season behind Joe Borowski definitely qualifies there.

So what went wrong for Betancourt last year? Everything. He nearly tripled his walks in fewer innings pitched, decreased his strikeouts by 20 percent, doubled his WHIP, and nearly quadrupled his ERA. With the oft-injured Kerry Wood (RP, CLE) on board as the Tribe's new closer the potential for saves has returned, but Betancourt continued to struggle this spring and has been passed by fellow set-up man Jensen Lewis (RP, CLE) and a host of others in the late-game pecking order.

Whether you loved or hated this, be sure to check out everything that we have going at RotoExperts.com. I guarantee you'll find something there to help improve your fantasy squads and maybe even your overall quality of life.

All Average Draft Positions provided by mockdraftcentral.com.

Which hurlers killed your fantasy team last season? E-mail Andy at Bottoms@rotoexperts.com with your fantasy baseball thoughts, rants, and conundrums.

RotoExperts.com NCAA Bracket Projections: March 12

Andy Bottoms — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 12:01:00 -0400

The major conference tournament action goes into full swing today, so not much has changed over the past few days despite some very close and well-played small conference championship games.

Click here for my latest projections through Wednesday's games.

The Last Four In

Texas A&M (23-9)

The Aggies were looking good and are likely still safe, but Wednesday night's loss to Texas Tech has allowed some doubt to creep in. They blew a 20-point lead and allowed Tech forward Mike Singletary to score 35 points...in one half!

New Mexico (21-10)

The Lobos have been idle since my last projections came out, but they hit the floor in Mountain West tournament action tonight against Wyoming. They just beat the Cowboys on Saturday and if they do so again, I don't see any chance they are left out.

UNLV (21-9)

Tonight's game with San Diego State is huge for the Rebels. If they lose, that would give the Aztecs a three-game sweep over them and essentially eliminate them from the conversation. If they win, they knock out San Diego State and solidify their bid at the same time.

St. Mary's (25-6)

The good news for the Gaels is that Patty Mills returned and they made the West Coast Conference finals. The bad news is that they lost handily to Gonzaga for the third time and have themselves in a really tough spot should other small conference favorites lose (like Butler earlier in the week). With Mills at full strength, they lost just one game but that may not be enough.

The Last Four Out

Minnesota (21-9)

Like many other bubble teams, today is a huge day for the Gophers. Beat Northwestern and they are likely in. Lose and they will be sweating it out on Sunday evening.

San Diego State (21-8)

As mentioned above, today's game with UNLV is an elimination game for the two teams. They say it's tough to beat a team three times in one year, but if the Aztecs can't find a way to do it, they are NIT-bound.

Providence (19-12)

The Friars got a tough break when DePaul upset Cincinnati in the first round of the Big East tournament. Another win over the Bearcats would have helped their resume, but instead they had to stage a late comeback to beat DePaul who hadn't won a Big East game all season until Tuesday. They likely need to upset Louisville today to get back in the mix.

Florida (22-9)

The Gators start their quest to make the tournament today in a must-win game against Arkansas. Despite an awful SEC record, Arkansas has some decent wins so Florida can't overlook them. Winning that game alone won't be enough though, but it would be a start.

Other teams considered

Miami (FL), Auburn, Kentucky, Creighton, Davidson, Kansas State, Rhode Island, and Tulsa

Let me know your thoughts at Bottoms@rotoexperts.com, and check back for updated brackets leading up to the tournament. Also be sure to check out my college hoops show on blogtalkradio.com with John Gasaway of BasketballProspectus.com, airing Mondays at 9:00 Eastern.

Listen to old episodes here or search RotoRadio on iTunes.

RotoExperts.com NCAA Bracket Projections

Andy Bottoms — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 22:58:56 -0400

I defy you to tell me that the weeks leading up and during the NCAA tournament are not the best ones of the year. After another exciting weekend and a few bids already clinched, click here for my latest projections through Sunday’s games.

The Last Four In

Penn State (21-10)

All the Nittany Lions had to do to lock up their bid was to win at Iowa on Saturday and they could not pull it off. Thanks to a weak non-conference schedule, they are back on the bubble, which means they cannot afford a loss to Indiana in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament.

New Mexico (21-10)

The Lobos picked up a road win at Wyoming to claim a share of the Mountain West regular season title. Due to a litany of bubble team losses, they are now in the tournament. They will likely get another shot at Utah in the MWC tournament, and a victory there could lock up their bid.

Providence (18-12)

It turned out to be a good thing for the Friars that they were idle over the weekend. That allowed them to just sit back and watch others lose, while they get ready for the Big East tournament. I still think they need at least one win there to get in.

UNLV (21-9)

Saturday’s loss to San Diego State gave the Aztecs a season sweep. UNLV still squeaked into the field thanks to a tougher non-conference schedule, where they picked up wins over Arizona and Louisville.

The Last Four Out

Minnesota (21-9)

The Gophers squandered a double-digit second half lead against Michigan to knock themselves out of the tournament. That loss gave the Wolverines a season sweep over Minnesota. Coupled with a weak non-conference slate, Tubby Smith’s squad is in a must-win game versus Northwestern to open the Big Ten tournament.

San Diego State (21-8)

As mentioned above, they do have a sweep over fellow bubble team UNLV. What they do not have is a decent out of conference win. They get the Rebels again to open the MWC tournament and must knock them off for a third time to strengthen their case.

Florida (22-9)

Saturday’s home win against Kentucky kept the Gators alive, but there is still work to be done. First and foremost, they cannot lose to Arkansas in their round one match-up. I think they would also need to knock off Auburn in round two to truly be considered a tournament team.

Miami (FL) (18-11)

A devastating loss to Georgia Tech last Wednesday kept the Canes from finishing at .500 in the ACC and will likely keep them out of the tournament. The first order of business is to knock off bubble contender Virginia Tech. However, North Carolina is lurking in round two, if they make it that far.

Also considered

Auburn, Kentucky, Creighton, Davidson, Kansas State, Rhode Island, and Tulsa

Listen to old episodes here or search RotoRadio on iTunes.

RotoExperts.com NCAA Bracket Projections: March 5

Andy Bottoms — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:55:14 -0500

If the past few days are any indication, apparently a lot of bubble teams don’t actually want to get in the tournament. Regardless, it should make for an interesting weekend and conference tournament season. Click here for my latest projections through Thursday's games:

The Last Four In

St. Mary's (24-5)

Patty Mills is due back for the WCC tournament, and if he plays and gets them to the title game I think the Gaels are in. With him in the lineup, they are clearly one of the top 65 teams in the country.

Texas A&M (22-8)

A road win at Colorado moved the Aggies over .500 in the Big 12, which proved to be enough thanks to losses by Kentucky, Florida, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Miami (FL) in the past couple days. Non-conference victories over Arizona and LSU also helped their case, but a win over Missouri this weekend would solidify their bid.

Michigan (18-12)

Like Texas A&M, an idle Wolverine team gets in by virtue of all the other bubble teams’ losses. That said, they cannot afford to lose this weekend at Minnesota.

Providence (18-12)

Despite falling to Villanova last night, the Friars squeaked into the bracket thanks to victories over Pitt and Syracuse and the horrible performances by other bubble teams. Their Big East season is now complete, but they could use a win or two in the conference tournament to give them some breathing room.

The Last Four Out

New Mexico (20-10)

It was a very close decision as to whether to include the Lobos. While they have played well in the MWC, I can’t get past some of their horrible early-season losses. Still, a road victory at Wyoming this weekend would probably be their best road win of the year and may be enough to get them over the hump should others falter.

Virginia Tech (17-12)

The Hokies’ loss to North Carolina was not unexpected but dropped them to 7-8 in the ACC with a trip to Florida State coming up this weekend. A win there would likely get them back in the tournament.

Rhode Island (22-8)

The Rams are 10-1 in their last 11 games, and they are making a case for three A-10 teams to make the Big Dance. Their two best wins are over Penn State and Dayton, and they have played some of the nation’s top teams pretty well. The overall weakness of the conference is holding them back though.

Creighton (25-6)

After tying Northern Iowa for the regular season title in the Missouri Valley, the Blue Jays will need to at least make the finals to get an at-large bid. A head-to-head win over New Mexico may come in handy if they start to get compared to the Lobos.

Also considered

Maryland, Kentucky, San Diego State, Miami (FL)

Let me know your thoughts at Bottoms@rotoexperts.com and check back for updated brackets leading up to the tournament. Also be sure to check out my college hoops show on blogtalkradio.com with John Gasaway of BasketballProspectus.com, airing Mondays at 9:00 Eastern.

RotoExperts.com NCAA Bracket Projections: March 3

Andy Bottoms — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 13:07:31 -0500

I'm going to attempt to do this more frequently as we get closer to Selection Sunday. Click here for my latest projections through Tuesday's games:

The last four in were:

Virginia Tech (17-11)- The Hokies have struggled of late as their ACC schedule has gotten tougher. They don't have any solid non-conference wins, so their games this week against UNC and Florida State are critical.
Kentucky (19-10) - After falling to South Carolina and LSU last week, it was down to UK and Florida for the final SEC bid. Kentucky got the nod based on their head-to-head victory over the Gators and better non-conference wins.
Minnesota (20-8) - The Gophers' swoon continued last week, and they will need to win at least one of their games this week versus Wisconsin and Michigan to remain in the tournament.
St. Mary's (24-5) - Patty Mills is due back for the WCC tournament, and if he plays and gets them to the title game I think the Gaels are in. With him in the lineup, they are clearly one of the top 65 teams in the country.

The last four out were:

Providence (18-11) - Last week's victory over Pitt was obviously huge, but outside of that and a home win against Syracuse, the Friars lack marquee wins. Four of their losses are against teams I don't have in the field of 65.
New Mexico (20-10) - The Lobos picked up another big home win on Tuesday by defeating Utah. They are now tied for first in the Mountain West, but non-conference losses to Creighton, Central Florida, VCU, Drake, Texas Tech, and UTEP are holding them back.
Florida (21-8) - The Gators didn't have a great showing at home versus Tennessee last Sunday and are short on quality wins. They need to beat UK this weekend to be considered.
Michigan (18-12) - They likely would have replaced Minnesota if they had beaten Wisconsin on Sunday, but the Wolverines now sit at 8-9 in the Big Ten. Knocking off Minnesota this week could get them back in though.

Also considered: Maryland, Texas A&M, Rhode Island, San Diego State

Let me know your thoughts at Bottoms@rotoexperts.comand check back for updated brackets leading up to the tournament. Also be sure to check out our college hoops show on blogtalkradio.com with John Gasaway of BasketballProspectus.com, airing Mondays at 9:00 Eastern.