Bleacher Report - Articles by Sierra

Fantasy Baseball: Trade Your Way to Success

Sierra — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 00:41:44 -0400

Tradeophobia: fear of trading one's fantasy players, even when in dire need of a move

Three signs you suffer extreme tradeophobia (in order of severity):

1. You’ve gone through a whole season without dropping a player.

2. You’ve gone through a whole season without making one deal.

3. The one and only trade you made last season had about as much impact as adding former professional pinch hitter Mark Sweeney to the team.

While your case probably isn’t this extreme, many fantasy managers are tradeophobic.

Too scared or prideful to change their team, they simply let it run its mediocre course.

Successful managers actively analyze their team. They adapt to its needs and carefully maneuver their way up the standings.

Bartering is usually necessary to win your fantasy baseball rotisserie league, so here’s a general guide to help conquer fears and hesitations.

Too terrified to trade?

No matter how good your draft was, your team is not perfect.

It’s a long season and there’s always room for improvement. Players get injured, prospects don’t prosper, and veterans have off years.

Maximize your team’s potential by addressing its weaknesses and facing the various challenges that inevitably arise throughout the season.

If your third round pick is going to be out for three months, you might have to drop him.

If it’s July and you’re first in bags and seventh in Ks, it’s probably time for a trade.

Most rotisserie league members compete in at least 10 categories. In order to be as strong as possible in each category, it’s crucial to watch and persistently tweak your team.

Inactive managers end up with stagnant teams. Active managers give themselves the opportunity to progress and achieve success.

The seasons and stages

As spring turns into summer, your team’s true colors start to reveal themselves.

Be open in your assessment of your team. Things may not have turned out the way you expected, so try not to let your pre-season predictions result in a biased analysis of your team.

Analyze your team and consider trades throughout the various stages of the season. Some key times to assess your team are right after the draft, a month-and-a-half in, midway, and at the trade deadline.

Trade for your team, not necessarily overall value

Look at your team’s ranking in each category.

Clearly, if you’re first in home runs, you don’t need to acquire Adam Dunn.

A good deal makes your team stronger. Look at your team in terms of its rankings by category, and identify if you’re:

1. Strong

2. Weak

3. Clustered

4. Stagnant

Remember that each place contributes to your overall ranking. If you have the potential to move up a couple of spots in a category, make a move.

Address the weaknesses by compromising some of your strengths and maximizing your team’s potential.

As the season progresses, note the stagnant categories, whether good or bad. Focus on obtainable goals, but don’t give up on categories too easily. If your team’s ranking in a category is stagnant, trade away players whose strengths are in this area.

Aim for first place by competing in as many categories as possible. This requires balance in both pitching and hitting.

Hitters vs. Pitchers

Hitters are generally ranked higher overall than pitchers because they typically contribute to an additional category (pitchers get either saves OR wins).

Don’t let this deter your from trading a great hitter for an ace if your team needs pitching.

Plus, only the best hitters are actually five-tool players. Most batters excel in only four categories.

One strategy is to draft good pitchers, load up on innings, achieve a hefty lead in pitching, and then trade for hitting.

The Deadline

It’s the last chance to assess your team and make a drastic change.

Right before the trade deadline is often the best time to deal your most valuable players.

Let Ryan Howard lead you to the top of home runs, then trade him for batting average, speed, and/or pitching.

Get value out of a player in some categories, then trade for a player with value in other categories.

If you can gain two or three spots in one category while risking zero to one spots in another, make the deal.

For example, it’s 90 games in and you’re leading stolen bases by 53 but are fourth in home runs. Look at how many home runs you need to catch third, second, or even first place. If you can jump a few spots, consider trading a speedster for a power hitter.

Watch your back

Examine the teams catching up to you in the rankings. Determine competitors’ rates of increase in each category and whether or not you can sustain your lead.

Will their hot hitters continue at that pace? What do you need to do to stay ahead?

I’ve seen too many teams lose huge leads because they got too comfortable and stopped paying attention.

After analyzing your team by category, solidify and improve your rankings accordingly.

Make the deal

Many are either too worried about getting ripped off, or are trying too hard to rip people off, to ever get a deal done.

Each team needs different things, and trades can truly benefit both sides. To win your league, you’ll probably have to make a deal.

So when it comes down to it, don’t be too scared to pull the trigger. Make the trade happen.

Breathe. That’s it. Inhale…exhale…click it…yes…you can do it…

Be brave. Make the move. How else will you see rewards?

Why Jerry Rice IS the Greatest Wide Receiver in NFL History: A Rebuttal

Sierra — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 02:50:59 -0400

Based on much of the evidence provided in today's Pick of the Day, Why Jerry Rice is NOT the Greatest Wide Receiver in NFL History, by Bryn Swartz, plus the addition of two key variables, player size and skill level, I have concluded that Jerry Rice IS the greatest wide receiver in NFL history.

Although Bryn Swartz's article is intended to convince the reader that Don Hutson is the best receiver ever, it further convinced me of Jerry Rice's supremacy.

Jerry Rice does not barely beat Don Hutson in longevity, he dominates him. Not only did Rice play in the NFL almost twice as long as Hutson, he played more games per season, against better players, and most importantly, he played with guys much bigger than Hutson. Way bigger.

Only 10 percent of players during Hutson's era were obese, compared to 56 percent of active NFL players in 2006, according to an article by Thomas Howard of Scripps Howard News Service.

Hutson's competitors were much less developed and skilled than today's athletes. As Swartz discussed, Hutson played both offense and defense. However, most players during Hutson's era played both sides of the field, so players were much less specialized than today.

Until 1933, a forward pass had to be from five yards behind the line of scrimmage. Then, the rule changed and the ball could be passed from anywhere behind the line of scrimmage.

Passing from behind the line was still a new rule when Hutson entered the league in 1935. Coaches and players did not have many passing strategies and defenders were perplexed.

In Swartz's "final adjustment", he calculates Hutson's stats for if he had played during Jerry Rice's era.

Swartz makes this adjustment by taking number of games per season and average amount of passes per game for each era into account, using 20 as the average amount of passes for Hutson's era and 30 for Jerry Rice's era.

Swartz's description of 1940s NFL offensive tactics:

Passing the football was considered risky! The forward pass was considered dangerous so most teams utilized two or three running backs...

This suggests that Hutson's team was passing the ball much more frequently than other teams, for they were certainly passing to him.

Therefore, the number of pass attempts for Hutson's team would have been above the 20 time per game average that is used in Swartz's calculations for Hutson's numbers relative to era.

This number, 20 pass attempts per game, is too low. Consequently, the final adjustments made for Huston's numbers relative to era are inflated.

These calculations are further inflated by the omission of two important variables, player size and skill level.

Plus, hundres of players were fighting in WWII, bringing down Huston's competition even more.

Hutson played in the nfl. Rice played in the NFL.

Thanks for all the great research and sparking a great debate on B/R Swartz!

But I must say...

JERRY RICE IS THE BEST!

Peace, Sierra

Golden State Warriors Coach Don Nelson Helps Anthony Randolph Grow

Sierra — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 16:30:36 -0400

The Warriors are having a bad year and the media is giving coach Don Nelson much of the blame.

The Warriors have been plagued with injuries and the inconsistancies of a roster filled with young talent. Nelson is being unfairly victimized and many fans are falling for it.

I don't question the methods behind the Mad Scientist's madness because they work.

The best example this year is Anthony Randolph.

Randolph is a young rookie with tons of potential who has only one year of college experience and still needs to refine his game.

Nellie has faced tremendous amounts of criticism for limiting Randolph's playing time, as if he was sitting him without purpose.

While clearly a rebound and block machine, many fail to see that Randolph has an equally amazing ability to turn over the ball.

Randolph has the worst turnover ratio for small forwards with 16.1 percent of possessions ending in a turnover, according to J. Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Perhaps Randolph wasn't being benched in vain.

Nellie understandably wanted him to practice harder and learn how to protect the ball, which Randolph was seriously offended by, showing that his ego needs some work too.

Let's take a look at Randolph's progression throughout the year (Randolph's average number of TO's per 48 minutes, average amount of minutes, number of games played per month):

November

5.4 TO, 13.8 Min, 11 GP

December

5.2 TO, 13.0 Min, 12 GP

January

2.5 TO, 11.3 Min, 10 GP

February

4.5 TO, 15.1 Min, 7 GP

March

4.2 TO, 25.0 Min, 5 GP (As of March 8)

It looks like Nellie has been working his magic. In a little more than two months since December, Randolph's average number of turnovers went from 5.3 to 3.7. Not only has Randolph decreased his turnover rate, but he has increased his playing time in the process.

On the Mad Scientist’s team, there is a negative correlation between turnover rate and minutes played. It's a standard coaching maneuver done to help the team win and encourage young players to improve their ball handling skills.

Is that so wrong?

Coach Nelson is great at dealing with egos and developing young players, even though the youngsters don't always understand or appreciate his methods.

He is like my eighth grade English teacher. She was so strict, she once gave me detention for passing white-out to a fellow classmate in need, but she taught me more about writing than I ever could have imagined. I didn't appreciate her at the time, but as I sit here and type this response, I surely do now.

Young players consistently improve under Nellie’s supervision. Players like Brandan Wright and Kelenna Azubuike have made tremendous strides in only a few seasons.

Azubuike, who could have been lost in the D-League if not for Nelson, is shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 46.2 percent from three-point range this year.

People often cite Wright as evidence to Nelson’s hindrance of the youths’ development. They seem to forget that Wright, an efficient player who ranks fifth in John Hollinger’s PER (a per minute statistic) for small forwards, was in the starting lineup before getting injured in early January.

Matt Barnes was barely hanging on to a job in the NBA when Nellie took him on and made him into a solid role player who now plays a key part in the Suns’ rotation.

After breaking up with Nelson, Baron Davis can hardly be called mediocre, shooting 36.5 percent from the field and 29.8 percent from three-point land.

Following a tough rookie season, the Warriors’ 18th pick in the 2007 draft, Marco Belinelli, has shown great improvement this season.

Patience is a virtue, especially when it comes to the development of young players in the NBA. Coach Nelson, a virtuous man by this definition, is trying to improve not only the individual players themselves, but the team as a whole. He disciplines players for being careless with the ball and gets criticized for it.

Nelson is helping Randolph grow. When Randolph collided with Lamar Odom against the Lakers this season, Nelson caringly examined his wound before guiding him towards the bench to recover.

Coach Nelson is fine tuning Randolph to prepare him for a long career of greatness, and maybe one day, Randolph will be thankful.

San Francisco Giants Need Nate Schierholtz in Their Lineup

Sierra — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 21:26:46 -0500

Nate Schierholtz's youth, dedication, and tough, gritty demeanor epitomize new owner Bill Neukom's "Giant Way of playing baseball". He mowed down China's catcher Yang Yang in Beijing, is one of the few players who bats without gloves, and most importantly, he can hit.

Schierholtz celebrated his 25th birthday just one week ago and it's about time he play a major role for the Giants.

Schierholtz is listed at 6'2" and 217 lbs. The Giants drafted him in the 2nd round of the 2003 draft. After great success in the minors, he made his MLB debut on June 11, 2007. A week and a half later, he had the game winning hit in the 13th inning against the Yankees, forcing his way onto fans' radars.

Schierholtz's Stats

AAA Fresno Career (761 AB's): .327 BA .576 SLG .940 OPS

MLB Career with SF (187 AB's): .310 BA .439 SLG .777 OPS

He was better in '08 (75 AB's): .320 BA .473 SLG .863 OPS

Schierholtz has been strong on both ends of the field, only committing 1 error in 58 big league games.

He is also clutch, hitting for a .329 average and .806 OPS with runners on, in 73 MLB at bats.

The Giants naturally want to take advantage of his strong arm by placing him in right field, but with Lewis, Rowand, and Winn, the outfield is crowded. The plan is to have Schierholtz replace Winn after this season, when Winn's contract expires. Lewis is solid and Rowand is inconsistent but heavily overpaid, preventing management from platooning him.

Then there's Roberts, who can make 6.5 million as a pinch runner/hitter, but should not start, especially over Schierholtz.

Filling in occasionally is not a big enough role for Schierholtz and 2010 is a whole season away. With additions such as R. Johnson and E. Rentieria, the Giants can compete now.

Here are some various ways to get Schierholtz more at bats:

1. Bench Lewis against lefties.

Shift Winn to left while Rowand stays in center, making room for Big Nate in right.

2. Bench Rowand against righties.

Shift Lewis to Center, Winn to left, and play Schierholtz in right.

3. Give Schierholtz some playing time in the corner infield.

The infield has an opening at first or third. The Giants are reluctantly planning to start 2009 with Pablo Sandoval at third and Travis Ishikawa at first. Ishikawa plays great defense, but is an offensive liability, pretty much the opposite of Sandoval.

Nate Schierholtz played third base until the Giants had him switch to outfield in 2004. For a guy who played third in college, corner infield shouldn't be out of the question. PECOTA projects a .748 OPS for Ishikawa and .802 OPS for Schierholtz in 2009.

Ishikawa is being praised by the Giants for his defense, but Schierholtz is clearly the better hitter. Splitting time between the two youngsters at first base could be a great option for the team this year.

By the way, I watched Sandoval hit 7 out of his 10 swings for home runs to defeat Miguel Cabrera in the Venezualen HR Derby. I understand why the Giants are ensuring his place in the lineup.

I was also reminded of how out of shape Sandoval is, and cannot help but question his range at third. With a Fielder-esque physique and strong offense, he may be better suited for first.

The Giants lineup is seriously lacking power, and if given the chance, Schierholtz could lead the team in OPS this season. Obviously, a Manny signing would change everything, but Schierholtz is the best internal option for added power in 2009.

Schierholtz deserves plate appearances on a regular basis, so the Giants need to finally start sitting other players for him.

Prince Fielder Looks Forward to '09

Sierra — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 22:57:06 -0500

Prince Fielder is happy, really happy. Fielder showed up to spring training looking noticeably slimmer than last season, a necessary change if he is going to sustain an elite level of play.

He's thinner, richer, and has a guaranteed job for the next two years. It's looking like a good year to come for the Prince, and his potential revitalization from last season may make him a bargain, perhaps even a steal, in your fantasy draft.

At a time when most of us are experiencing cutbacks, Fielder got a raise... a big one. Two years, $18 million, and he's not being shy about his elation. In fact, I can't tell what he's more excited about, his weight loss or pay gain.

When speaking with mlb.com at spring training on Thursday, he was immediately asked about his new figure. Fielder spoke of his weight then preempted questions about his new contract, saying:

"I feel better, I look better in a uniform, so I guess that makes you feel better. But no, it was just something that I needed to do...and now I can just play baseball, and, you know, I don't have to worry about contract talks...for at least two years, and...now I can just have fun."

Given Fielder's improved physique, huge raise, and three full years of experience, I believe his '09 numbers will rival those of his monstrous '07, sophomore season. In '07, he produced:

AB R H HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS

573 109 165 50 119 90 2 .288 .395 .618 1.013

Talk about a lot to live up to. As a young man still adjusting to fame, criticism over lifestyle choices, and playing in MLB, the pressure got to him. His numbers in '08 were:

AB R H HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS

588 86 162 34 102 84 3 .276 .372 .507 .879

Although many blamed his meatless diet, Fielder attributes his '08 power drop to trying too hard, understandably effected by the high expectations that follow a 50 HR season. The media, Brewers fans, and fantasy owners seemed absolutely dumbfounded by his vegetarianism, and blamed his decrease in production to his new diet.

Fans should be supporting Fielder for his decision to address his long term health. According to the USDA, a vegetarian diet can meet all of its recommendations for nutrition.

Fielder eats lots of bean burgers, and beans are loaded with protein, fiber, and phytochemicals. They are a great way to satisfy hunger without loads of calories.

The point is, Fielder is healthier. His athleticism will improve with his physique, creating the potential for a great season. After a mildly disappointing '08, many fantasy owners are letting him slide down the draft board.

Jason Grey got him 28th in ESPN's fantasy expert mock draft. His average ESPN draft position matches his '09 player ranking, 23rd overall.

According to my '09 predictions, Fielder may rebound back to his 2007 form. My '09 projections are:

AB R H HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS

587 105 170 45 123 92 5 .290 . 396 .589 .985

These numbers would make him more of an early second round pick. He has shown the ability to hit for more power than fellow first baseman Mark Teixeira, but doesn't have the same lineup support (although his is solid).

He stole seven bags in his rookie season and had 109 runs the subsequent year, so the ability to run is there. A slimmer, happier Prince may lead to some unexpected surprises for fantasy owners this year.

If you find yourself in the third round with Fielder still undrafted, consider him a steal.