Bleacher Report - Articles by William Gunn

LSU Football: Les Miles Seeks to Right the Ship This Spring

William Gunn — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 22:03:13 -0400

LSU struggled last year, going 8-5 amidst whispers of “Saban’s players are gone.” Confusion reigned on defense, but quarterback play got the headlines—LSU had seven interceptions returned for touchdowns, and 16 overall. LSU fans expect both to be fixed this year—but the whispers won’t go away until the football team delivers on the field this fall.

What went wrong?

Problems on defense were obvious: Substitutions arrived late, players were often caught looking at the sideline for play calls or coverage assignments while the ball was being snapped, and blown coverage (particularly by linebackers and safeties) was frequent. The co-defensive coordinator experiment was a bust.

The offense performed well for most of the season—gaining more yards against Georgia and Alabama than any other team did—but self-destructed with those interceptions.

After the Alabama game (four interceptions) the starting quarterback, Jarrett Lee, regressed, and the offense sputtered the last few games. Lee’s passer efficiency averaged 140 through seven games, but only 81 for his final four games. This wasn’t just about interceptions, but also about the fragile psyche of a freshman quarterback.

Offensive coordinator Gary Crowton has a history of starting strong and then tailing off in subsequent years (Oregon, Chicago Bears, BYU)—was the pattern repeating itself at LSU?

Crowton has done better inheriting a quarterback, than he has in developing his own; could he have managed Lee better?

The Road Back Begins This Spring.

The entire defensive coaching staff was replaced. John Chavis, formerly of Tennessee (nine top-three SEC defenses in 14 years at UT), is the new defensive coordinator and linebackers coach.

Joining him are defensive backs coach Ron Cooper (who led the Gamecocks to consecutive top-four pass defenses), and Brick Haley (from the Chicago Bears), on the defensive line.

Changes are apparent already. Charles Alexander, granted a sixth year of eligibility, said it’s more like the old way of doing business.

When asked if that meant the way Bo Pelini coached, he said "I think I might take it all the way back to my true freshman year when coach (Nick) Saban was here, it's backs to the wall and nothing but maximum effort. Not to take anything away from coach Pelini, but this style is more intense. It's what we need after last season."

Chavis is also scrapping the “chess-match” approach of last year, where the co-defensive coordinators tried to shuttle players on and off the field with every offensive package change, to get the perfect personnel match-up.

Chavis says he only has two packages; base (4-3), and dime. He relies on using speedy linebackers—perhaps even a converted safety—that can cover; his fastest starting linebacker is his nickel back.

The biggest losses on either side of the ball are on the defensive line, where LSU will have at least three, and possibly four new starters this fall.

On offense, there’s a lot more depth at quarterback this spring (more on that later), and LSU has weapons to support him – Brandon LaFell (929 yards, eight TDs, No. 2 SEC receiver last year), and Charles Scott (1174 yards, 18 TDs, second in rushing yards among returning SEC players).

Notable Position Battles this Spring.

Quarterback: Jefferson’s MVP-winning performance in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl convinced many he is the chosen one for 2009, but they’re overlooking his less than 50 percent completion percentage on the season. Jefferson’s zero interceptions in his two starts, however, give him the inside track as starter.

Lee put up good numbers during the season, but threw too many interceptions to hold onto the job.

Two freshmen are early enrollees participating in spring practice: Russell Shepard, a dual-threat phenom who will see the field in some capacity this year, and Chris Garrett, a strong-armed, very accurate passer that may be the sleeper of LSU’s recruiting class.

Fullback: Yes, LSU still uses a true fullback, and loses a good one, Quinn Johnson, to the NFL. Look for fullback by committee this spring, with Charles Scott probably lining up there sometimes ala Jacob Hester, until recruit Dominique Allen arrives this summer.

LSU may go with more one-back sets, or use an H-Back (TE Tyler Edwards most likely), if a suitable replacement doesn’t step forward.

Receivers: Brandon LaFell is a lock at one position. Terrance Toliver (6’4”, 194 pounds, 22 receptions), has shown flashes of ability, but needs to become more consistent to provide a steady No. 2 receiver.

Chris Mitchell and Tim Molton will battle for the third and fourth spots; watch for Molton (6’3”, 173 pounds, 4.45), who teamed with Jordan Jefferson in high school, to move up the depth chart this spring.

Reuben Randle, leading receiver in the U.S. Army High School All-American Game, arrives this fall. Richard Dickson (31 receptions, five TDs) will be a reliable weapon at TE in his third year as starter.

Running Back: Charles Scott is the headliner, backed up by fellow senior Keiland Williams (83 carries, 444 yards). Look for junior Richard Murphy to be the star of the spring game for a third consecutive year; will it finally transfer to the regular season this year? Stevan Ridley and incoming freshman Michael Ford will provide depth.

Offensive Line: LSU must replace Herman Johnson (left guard) and Brett Helms (center), but Ciron Black (left tackle) bypassed the NFL and returns for his senior campaign. Lyle Hitt, a dominating run blocker, will return for a third year starting at right guard, and Joe Barksdale starts for a second year at right tackle. Depth is a concern, as only 11 offensive linemen are present for spring drills.

Defensive line: The biggest question mark on the roster, other than possibly quarterback. LSU may open with new starters at all four positions. Rahim Alem (eight sacks), was a pass-rushing specialist last year, but is he an every-down end that can stop the run?

Lazarius “Pep” Livingston and Chase Clement will compete at the other end. Charles Alexander (DT) returns for a sixth year, but has yet to fully rebound from knee surgery in 2007. Man-child Al Woods (6’4”, 323 pounds), and Drake Nevis will compete with Alexander at defensive tackle.

Linebacker: The responsibilities will change here more than the personnel. Perry Riley and Kelvin Sheppard return at the outside positions; Jacob Cutrera, long time (and frequently injured) backup, is the favorite in the middle. Freshman Kevin Minter may challenge for the middle linebacker spot; watch for special-teams demon Ryan Baker to make his case for Sheppard’s position.

Secondary: Should be the strength of the defense in 2009. Sophomore cornerback Patrick Peterson (6’1”, 205 pounds), appearing in spot duty before claiming the starting job for the last four games, may end up the best ever at LSU; besides his coverage skills, he’s an asset against the run, finishing third on the team in solo tackles.

The other corner spot is up for grabs; Chris Hawkins is the favorite, but Jai Eugene (started eight games last year), and Ron Brooks are possibilities also, and will provide quality depth. Chad Jones moves to free safety, and Harry Coleman is likely to repeat at strong safety. Karnell Hatcher and true freshman Craig Loston are two more names to watch at safety.

Rich Rodriguez, You're No Urban Meyer

William Gunn — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:27:20 -0400

"Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy, I knew Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." Lloyd Bentsen to Dan Quayle, Vice-Presidential Candidate Debate, 1988.

Dan Quayle compared himself to Jack Kennedy in response to a question about his youth, pointing out that Jack Kennedy was also young when he ascended to the Presidency. Likewise, Rich Rodriguez has similarities to Urban Meyer – most notably a run-heavy variant of the veer offense, recent ascension to one of the top jobs in college football after a successful run at another school, and inheriting players ill-suited for his style of offense.

That’s where the similarities between Meyer’s first year at Florida, and Rodriguez’ first year at Michigan, end. Rodriquez isn’t Quayle, and Meyer isn’t Kennedy, but there’s reason to believe the gap between them is nearly as large.

Both inherited quarterbacks with potential, but not for their type of offense. Ryan Mallett, a highly touted, strong-armed quarterback, promptly packed his bags and headed for more favorable environs. Urban Meyer retained Chris Leak, did the best he could to play to Leak’s strengths (passing accuracy) and minimize his weaknesses in Meyer’s offense (small, not a strong runner, and didn’t care for contact). That paid off in Urban Meyer’s second year with a BCS crystal trophy.

Rodriguez faced a wave of defections before his team opened the season in September, particularly along the offensive line. The Michigan faithful painted it as getting rid of the slackers, those that had been coddled under Lloyd Carr and couldn’t adapt to the new regime. But when a Michigan legacy like Justin Boren not only leaves, but goes to arch-rival Ohio State, it gives one pause. Urban Meyer faced no such wave of defections at Florida.

Of particular interest was the way Urban Meyer adapted his first year at Florida. His wan-tango offense put up gaudy scores against lesser competition early in the season (41-3, and 49-28). Then came the first real SEC test at Alabama, which blitzed the house every time UF went empty-set. Leak got hammered, badly rattled, and Alabama won in a rout, 31-3. SEC defensive coordinators took note.

Two weeks later, Florida visited LSU. Once again, LSU max blitzed every empty set, Leak became ineffective, and LSU won despite losing the turnover battle 5-0. It was in the press conference after this game that Meyer broke down in tears and earned the moniker “Urban Cryer”.

But Meyer wasn’t done – he assembled his staff upon their return to Florida, and they stayed up all night at a kitchen table drawing up plays. Formations that weren’t in the Urban Meyer playbook. Plays with tight ends, and fullbacks, and all sort of exotic creatures never seen when he was at Utah; extra blockers to give Leak more time in the pocket. Florida hunkered down on offense enough to finish the season 9-3, with a bowl win, and scored more than 30 points 7 times.

After the season, Meyer was asked how difficult it was having players that didn’t fit his offense; he took umbrage at the question, and said his job as a coach is to fit his system to the players he’s got, not the other way around. It was clear Urban Meyer was the real deal.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, ran off a top quarterback and much of his offensive line, muddled through a painful 3-9 season, and only scored more than 30 points a single time. Before his second season starts, he’s already lost one quarterback with experience from last year (Threet) and will once again face a season with a green signal-caller.

Rodriguez took a square peg, stuck it in the proverbial round hole, and just whaled away all season long. At no point did he sit down and remake the offense to match the players on hand. He fired his defensive coordinator promptly after the season, but the offense was far worse than the defense last year. It appears his plan is to get the right players on offense; until then, just keep on hammering until that square peg gets rounded off.

Even with the right players in place, it’s a rare season that goes perfectly. Witness Florida struggling without Harvin; West Virginia’s woes when Pat White went out with injuries. Adapting during the season – as Meyer did after the Ole Miss loss this year, getting scat backs Raines and Demps more involved in the offense – is vital if one aspires to a BCS Championship.

Rodriguez succeeded at West Virginia, and there’s no reason to think he won’t succeed at Michigan after he remakes the team in his image. At the same time, though, he doesn’t appear to have Meyer’s adaptability, and without that ability to morph the system in mid-season, it’s unlikely he’ll ever achieve the level of success that Urban Meyer has enjoyed at Florida, or even be a consistent contender for the Big Ten conference championship.

Coach Rodriguez, you’re no Urban Meyer.

SEC Football: Debunking the Conference Superiority Myth

William Gunn — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 17:49:35 -0500

Question: How do you reconcile the belief that the SEC is the best conference, with a background in statistical math?

Answer: You don’t.

Almost all SEC football fans are convinced—beyond a shadow of reasonable doubt—that the SEC is the best football conference, and not only that, it’s a big step down to second place. The media seems to agree, even after their brief flirtation with the Big 12 in 2008, which came to an abrupt end when the Big 12 South went 1-3 in bowl games.

The reality doesn’t match the perception—at least not if you try to compare “apples to apples”, a key tenet of statistical comparison. How does one go about that?

Forget the overall records—conferences play varying numbers of non-BCS teams, and it’s hardly fair to compare playing MAC or Sunbelt teams, to games against BCS conference teams. We’ll just look at games against BCS teams.

Second, let’s throw Notre Dame (a BCS team) out of the equation and make this a zero-sum game between the BCS conferences. When one conference wins a game, another loses it. Notre Dame just muddies the water for this discussion.

Throw out bowl games. The long layoff affects teams differently, the conference tie-ins don't result in equal quality (or quantity) of opponents for each conference, and some conferences have geographic advantages (proximity) in bowl games. Let’s neutralize those effects by just looking at what are (mostly) home-and-home series during the regular season. Over longer periods of time, the percentage of home and away games was pretty even for each of the conferences.

So, we’re left with regular-season games against BCS conference opponents. What does last year look like?

Conference Win Pct. Opp. Win Pct.
ACC            0.620     0.657
Big East       0.500     0.579
Big Ten        0.500     0.564
Big 12          0.467     0.506
Pac-10         0.455     0.628
SEC             0.400     0.568

A few points certainly jump out. The ACC was pretty good! They played the toughest BCS schedule, and had—by a large margin—the highest win percentage. Second, the Big 12 played the weakest schedule, especially compared to the ACC and the PAC 10 (zero opponents that finished the year in the top 10 for the Big 12, compared to five for the ACC). Something that doesn’t show up is that the SEC played 10 of 14 games on the road. That happens with one-year snapshots.

Everyone agreed the SEC was down last year (at least before the bowls). How about looking at the last three years? During that stretch, the SEC has won three straight BCS titles, and is an amazing 19-7 overall in bowl games. Surely the SEC's superiority will reveal itself?

2006-2008

Conference Win Pct. Opp. Win Pct.
PAC 10        0.552     0.636
Big Ten        0.552     0.497
Big East       0.532     0.536
SEC            0.500     0.596
ACC            0.481     0.630
Big 12         0.405     0.572

That’s puzzling. During what might be the best three-year run for the conference, the SEC was exactly 0.500 against BCS teams during the regular season. It wasn’t just strength of schedule that dragged them down either—the PAC 10 played a tougher slate and won at a higher rate.

Similar results exist for the last five years; note the SEC mired in the bottom half, right at 0.500.

2004-2008
Conference Win Pct. Opp. Win Pct.
Big Ten       0.549      0.508
PAC 10       0.522      0.628
ACC           0.506      0.626
SEC           0.500      0.599
Big 12        0.481      0.586
Big East     0.459      0.536

Finally, a look at the entire 11 years of the BCS:

BCS Era
Conference Win Pct. Opp. Win Pct.
PAC 10        0.543      0.597
ACC            0.525      0.596
Big Ten        0.519     0.505
Big 12          0.492     0.575
SEC             0.468     0.591
Big East       0.445      0.561

The SEC, 5-0 in BCS Championship Games, is second from the bottom in regular season win percentage against BCS foes during the BCS era. Who would have thought that?

The SEC’s reputation, even over the last few years, is built largely on two components: First, they beat non-BCS Division 1A (FBS) teams at a higher rate than any other conference. The SEC is number one in win percentage against non-BCS FBS teams over the one-year, three-year, five-year, and BCS-era periods.

Secondly, the SEC is very good in bowl games. The SEC—while playing the toughest bowl slate of any conference—is in the top two for every time period of the BCS era, against BCS teams. The PAC 10 is in first for the one and three year periods; the SEC is first for the five year and entire BCS periods.

How to reconcile the SEC’s excellent bowl record with their very mediocre record during the regular season? That depends upon your conference affiliation. If you’re non-SEC, it’s proof of the “home-field” advantage of playing bowl games in the South. As further “proof”, the PAC 10 is excellent in bowls—and also plays a lot of bowls close to home.

If you’re pro-SEC…it’s a little more challenging. I think the reasonable observer has to question why a superior conference can’t dominate during the regular season; not just for a single year, but at any point over the BCS era. Maybe some of the things we “know” aren’t as clear upon closer examination.

LSU Football Team Faces Tougher Sledding In 2009

William Gunn — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 14:56:28 -0500

Every odd year in this millennium, the LSU football team has won the SEC West—’01, ’03, ’05, and ’07.

Three of those years they went on to SEC titles, and twice to the BCS crystal trophy. Not once did they win the West in an even year during that stretch.

Scheduling had much to do with LSU’s odd-year dominance. In even years LSU travels to Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas, which from ’00 to ’07 had the second, third, and sixth best records in conference play. Playing all three on the road stymied LSU’s bid for the West in even years; getting all three at home, on the other hand, helped LSU win the West in odd years.

Times they are a-changing.

Not since 1999 had a team not named Arkansas or Auburn won the SEC West in an even year—until Nick Saban’s Alabama squad last year. Tommy Tuberville lost his job, partly because of an abysmal offense, and partly due to Saban-inspired panic on the Plains. The very much unproven Gene Chizik now leads the Auburn Tigers.

Arkansas, the other West contender, also slid under first year coach Bobby Petrino. Ole Miss—lead by some guy named Houston Nutt—promptly took their place with a bevy of talent left behind by Ed Orgeron.

Now, in a reversal to LSU’s odd-year fortunes, LSU gets weakened Auburn and Arkansas at home, but must face likely West contenders on the road at Alabama and Ole Miss. The 2009 season is suddenly looking very much like one of the dreaded “even” year schedules.

If history is any indication, LSU faces an uphill battle for West supremacy this year.

Tennessee Offense Key to Lane Kiffin's Future

William Gunn — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 17:01:44 -0500

Lane Kiffin has been the center of attention in the SEC this past month—not always for the right reasons.

His supporters suggest his staff of stellar recruiters, and Monte (Dad) Kiffin running the defense, give him a good chance of success in the cutthroat SEC. The truth is, however, that his regime may be in trouble for reasons neither his Dad, or his all-star recruiters, can help him with before it's too late.

Defense wasn't the problem at UT last year—they finished third in total defense, and 10th in scoring defense. Monte might make them better, but it will only be incremental improvement, not a quantum leap. What got Phil Fulmer fired was the offense, 115th in total offense and 110th in scoring (out of 119 FBS teams).

Lane's challenge is to make dramatic improvement on offense, with the same players—or perhaps a less talented group—than Fulmer had last year.

Tennessee starts 2009 with the same quarterbacks that didn't get it done in 2008: Jonathan Crompton (51.5%, 4 TD, 5 INT), Nick Stevens (48.5%, 4 TD, 3 INT), and B. J. Coleman (redshirted). Kiffin, and his offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, must get more from these guys quickly or 2009 will be a repeat of 2008, and the honeymoon will be fading fast. Another strike against UT's offense for 2009 is the loss of their leading rusher (Arian Foster), receiver (Lucas Taylor), and both starting offensive tackles.

Kiffin and Chaney need to do what David Cutcliffe did for Erik Ainge and the Tennessee offense. Cutcliffe proved that good coaching can salvage a foundering QB, and discipline and better play calling can get far more out of personnel that disappointed only a year earlier. Are they up to it?

It doesn't get better in 2010, either. Tennessee only signed six offensive players in 2009, and eight in 2008. Of those eight players in 2008, only five are still playing offense at Tennessee. Eleven players in two years is dangerously low, especially considering none of them are quarterbacks. Kiffin faces 2010 without Crompton, but he'll gain yet-to-be-recruited quarterbacks, if he dares (or must) play a true freshman in the SEC that year.

Next year's win-loss tally will depend on his staff getting better play at a number of positions—but most importantly quarterback—out of what is largely the same talent that underwhelmed last year.

If that doesn't work, the cavalry (fresh talent) doesn't arrive until 2010 and will have to deliver as true freshmen. Not an enviable prospect for a coach that might be facing a short honeymoon after this last month's headlines.

If Kiffin can get more out of Fulmer's players, he'll be given the key to the Vols' kingdom. Failure to do so will likely result in quick banishment, before he can reap the rewards his recruiters are sure to bring to Rocky Top.