Bleacher Report - Articles by Scott Weldon

Peter Mueller of the Phoenix Coyotes: Where Has He Gone?

Scott Weldon — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 07:03:04 -0500

Peter Mueller has just been sidelined by an undisclosed injury he suffered against the Dallas Stars on Friday night. He's questionable for tonight's game in Anaheim. The former standout first line center has been shunted to the wing and now plays behind Matthew Lombardi, Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata, and when he's healthy, checker Vernon Fiddler. It wasn't supposed to be that way.

Peter starred as a young man with US National under-18 team and with the Everett Silvertips of the Western Hockey League after that.

He was a leader on the US U-18 team at the world championships. He starred on two US World Junior championship squads. He was the youngest member of the US team that finished fourth in 2006. At the 2007 World Junior hockey championships he helped lead his team to a quarterfinal matchup against Canada.

The talented US team lost 2-1 in a shoot-out to the eventual gold medal winning Canadians. The US then beat the host Swedes to win the bronze medal at the World U-20 tournament. He was the third leading scorer for the US behind Erik Johnson and Patrick Kane. He was a quick dangerous skater and a threat to score whenever he was on the ice.

He was drafted 8th overall in the 2006 NHL entry draft. He was one of four American born players taken in the top ten that year and one of nine taken in the first round. That year's draft featured other future stars Erik Johnson, Phil Kessel, and Kyle Okposo.

Along with former draft picks Keith Yandle, Blake Wheeler, and Martin Hanzal, Mueller was seen as part of a cohort of young new talent ready to help create a better, more talented, and most importantly younger, Phoenix Coyote team.

The 2007-08 season was his first in the NHL.

He was 19 years old. He played much of the season as a first line center. He played a lot of minutes, took over two hundred shots and he was successful. His rookie season saw him score 22 goals and get 32 assists in 81 games.

He was the Coyotes third leading scorer. There was a collection of young talent that looked like it was ready to come together in Phoenix. Kyle Turris had played his first three games as an 18-year-old.

Martin Hanzal, Daniel Winnik, Keith Yandle, Keith Ballard, and Enver Lisin all looked to be ready to lead Phoenix to the cusp of greatness. Ilya Bryzgalof was brought in to solve their goaltending woes. The Phoenix Coyotes were ready to move forward and 19-year-old Peter Mueller was ready to lead them.

I saw him play a game that year against the Calgary Flames in the Olympic Saddledome where he eviscerated the ponderous flames defense.

Cory Sarich helped him at one point by falling while skating backwards and allowing him to slip through to get an easy one past Kiprusoff. The Coyotes didn't manage much offense, but Mueller had three slashing spurts.

He scored three goals while dazzling slow-footed flames defenders and the Coyotes easily won the game 3-1. Aside from Mueller shifts they were out-played. That was one of the better performances I've seen by a nineteen year old in the NHL. He certainly matched up well against the Sarich's and Ericksson's of the world.

The next year, he started slowly and then suffered a concussion against San Jose on Jan. 29. He missed seven games due to the concussion and finished his season playing 72 games and getting 36 points.

That wasn't a huge step backwards. Many the sophomore has a worse second year. Unfortunately, it didn't stop there.

New coach Dave Tippett is trying to win in Phoenix. He's running a much more veteran heavy line-up then Wayne Gretzky was. Peter Mueller's ice time has been effected a bit. His offensive out-put though has gone down the drain.

He has a goal and four points in twenty four games. He's taken 37 shots so far. He's only scoring on 2.7 percent of those shots—a far cry from the 10.95 scoring percentage he managed as a rookie.

He'll finish a long way from the two hundred shots he took in that rookie year. That's if his poor performance doesn't get him benched the way Martin Hanzal has been benched this year.

The heady expectancy created by all the talented youth in the roster last year and the year before has given way to despondency. Young talent has been traded, benched or, as in the case of young Russian Viktor Tikhonov, gone to the KHL rather then accept assignment to the AHL.

Peter Mueller was the youngster who looked to be the best of that young bunch coming forward. At age 21, Peter still has plenty of talent and plenty of time to turn it around. Here's hoping that Mueller, and the other Phoenix draftees, Boedkker, Tikhonov, Turris et al, manage to turn their careers and the team around.

Peter Mueller might not be a Patrick Kane/Jonathon Toews kind of talent but he's a quick-skating scorer who could give the Kyle Okposo's and Kris Versteeg's of the world a run for their money.

He's also a talented American hockey player who could be a star in a desperate US market. I'm not a marketing genius but a team in trouble like Phoenix could do worse then try to build a team around young Peter Mueller. For this to work, Peter has to begin playing like he has in the past.

Hopefully, he returns to his rookie season form and soon.

Guillaume Latendresse Traded to Wild; Canadiens Receive Benoit Pouliot

Scott Weldon — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 10:46:32 -0500

Yes, "the softy" has been moved to Minnesota for "the chicken." That's as far as my high school French, no doubt erroneously, will take me.

Underachievers Benoit Pouliot and Guillaume Latendresse have been exchanged for each other. Bob Gainey suggested, "Often times a different environment, new teammates, and a new situation can be beneficial to a player."

Latendresse was chosen in the second round, 45th overall by the Montreal Canadiens in 2005. He was a scorer in junior, but the big, slow-skating forward has been unable to make that translate into NHL success. His best season was his first, when as a 19-year-old he played 80 games and managed 16 goals and 13 assists. Each year since then, his games played, points, and ice time have decreased.

Latendresse is a big kid (6'2", 230 lbs.) and was seen as a much-needed power forward on a tiny, quick Montreal team. Unfortunately, he's Dustin Penner slow without the soft hands. He's been called to play a more physical role, but again, his speed makes it hard for him to check effectively.

Pouliot was highly touted when he was taken fourth overall by the Minnesota Wild in the same 2005 NHL entry draft. He was ranked as high as third (TSN) going into that draft and was taken fourth overall by the Wild. This was a great NHL draft, and the success of later picks Devin Setoguchi, Anze Kopitar, Marc Staal, T.J. Oshie, James Neal, Paul Stasny, Marc-Eduoard Vlasic, and Kris Letang has reflected poorly on him.

After a strong OHL career, Pouliot has been a two-thirds of a point a game player in the AHL and a third of a point guy in the NHL.

Pouliot was seen as an explosive skater with a hard accurate shot. His defensive shortcomings (laziness, some say) and inability to score at the professional level have led to him being moved by the Wild.

Both players have been seen as having attitude problems. Latendresse is a year younger and a bigger player. Pouliot is faster with more theoretical potential. Latendresse has certainly had the better career so far. Both of them were being eased out or towards the back of their respective lineups.

Here's a trade that has the best chance of benefiting the players traded. They're both on the way out, but maybe with their new teams they'll get a chance to shine.

Perhaps with the Wild defensive clamps off, Pouliot will become an NHL scorer.

Perhaps with the shock of being traded away by Les Habitants, Latendresse will become a more consistent banger.

The teams can only hope they'll benefit from this swap of fourth liners.

Pouliot seems to have the most potential, and Latendresse the best career, such as it is, to date. Which do you prefer, the bird in the hand or the one in the bush?

Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics : Canada's Men's Hockey Team

Scott Weldon — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 13:36:37 -0500

It's a tough struggle to pare down the available Canadian players for the men's Olympic hockey team. Anyone you keep displaces three worthy candidates. I have placed an emphasis on speed and international/NHL playoff experience and success. I've arrived at this team as the one I think will have the best chance of succeeding for Canada.

Forwards

First line: LW Rick Nash C Ryan Getzlaf RW Jarome Iginla

Second line: LW Dany Heatley C Sidney Crosby RW Steven Stamkos

Third line: LW Brenden Morrow C Mike Richards RW Jeff Carter

Fourth line: LW John Tavares C Joe Thornton RW Corey Perry

Extra forward : Patrick Marleau

Jarome Iginla is your veteran presence in this lineup. He's still quick and strong with a great shot. Ryan Getzalf almost willed his duck team past the Red Wings last year in the playoffs. He's a force of nature out on the ice and should be difficult to deal.

Then throw in big quick Rick Nash. The sniper is on a pace to score fifty. He was one of the few Canadian forwards to create chances at the Turin Olympics.

Sidney Crosby is a great playmaker who is strong on his skates and whose engine is always running. It's good to have another Stanley cup winning captain on the team. Steven Stamkos has never been my favourite Canadian international but he had a good rookie year and he's a better sophomore.

Canada left a lot of youngsters off the team in Turin in an attempt to recreate the Salt Lake success. I'm recommending against that. If there are quick young scorers available I say take them.

The Russians didn't pass on Ovechkin for Turin because he was too young. I didn't want Dany Heatley or Joe Thornton for this team. They were useless at Turin together but it's impossible to argue with their numbers. Probably they should play together.

The checking line is Mike Richards , Jeff Carter, and Brenden Morrow.

Carter and Richards have been great checkers for Canada in the past at the world juniors. They're fast, strong and can score putting defensive pressure on other teams top lines. Brenden Morrow was Canada's best defensive forward. He's coming back from injury last year that may have slowed him significantly. Still I'd like to try him as the third checker.

My last line has the aforementioned Joe Thornton, young scorer John Tavares and Corey Perry. Thornton is the best playmaker in the game. Unfortunately he plays the game at half speed and he seemed overwhelmed at the Olympics last time.

If he is again switch in speedster Patrick Marleau on this line. He's been strong at the world's. Tavares is a streak who puts the puck in the net. Corey Perry is another youngster with a great world junior and NHL resume. Here's a chance to add Olympic gold to it.

Defense

First PR Chris Pronger Dan Boyle

Second PR Shea Weber Drew Doughty

Third PR Dion Phaneuf Duncan Keith

Fourth PR Mike Green (Dan Hamhuis)

One of the greatest weaknesses of the Canadian team at Turin was lack of offense from the defense. Throw in the fact that Chris Pronger was playing on one foot and couldn't keep up with the Swiss let alone the Russians and it's obvious that this Canadian team needs to be healthy and needs to have offensive skills.

Dan Boyle has been one of the best Canadian puck movers since he won a cup with Tampa Bay. He's quick and smart with the puck and runs a great power play. Chris Pronger is big and rangy and has a point shot.

As long as he's healthy he can skate enough, especially on NHL size ice to be effective. Anyone who gets hurt before the tournament needs to be subbed out for a healthy player who can skate.

Shea Weber is a big kid who hits hard and has scored 20 from the blue-line. Drew Doughty is anchoring an LA defense that's becoming one of the stingiest in the league.

He's playing twenty-three minutes a night and is a plus player in LA. Dion Phaneuf has tons of bad press and still doesn't always look responsible on his blue-line. Yet he was great world junior player on the big ice.

He's a good skater with a big left shot and he hits like a tank. I have to keep him. Duncan Keith has been great in Chicago. He had a couple of panicked moments when faced with Detroit’s speed in the playoffs. Brent Seabrook might be the safer choice, but I'll accept the offensive skill.

Mike Green fills my need for another top end offensive defenseman at the Olympics. You'd take Paul Coffey on your Olympic team and you need to take Mike Green as well despite some moments of panic he had in last years playoff.

I'd stick with seven defenseman and Dan Hamhuis and Brent Seabrook would be my first choices as an eighth or injury replacement defenseman.

Goalies

Starter: Roberto Luongo

First Back-up: Chris Mason

Second Back-up: Martin Brodeur

This is a scary situation for Canada. Martin Brodeur is getting too old to depend on in these situations. He's had some old man moments to intersperse with his great play the last couple of playoffs. His numbers still warrant it, so I've chosen him to be on the team.

Roberto Luongo hopefully won't turn out to be Canada's next Mike Liut. He showed vulnerability in the playoffs when faced with Chicago's speed. Hopefully, Canada will be good enough not to need the best goaltending to do well at these Olympics.

My pick for the last year has been Steve Mason but right now he has worse numbers then Pascal Leclaire. I choose Chris Mason as Canada's second goalie because he had a great last year for St Louis and is doing well again this year.

The Left Behind

Some players I could luckily eliminate because of injury. Marc Savard, Cam Ward, Eric Staal, Ryan Smyth, Pierre Marc Bouchard, and Devin Setoguchi are all hurt.

Vincent Lecavalier just isn't playing well enough to be considered. Dustin Penner is too darn slow. Martin St Louis is another guy having a good year but I just like the youth that Tavares and Stamkos bring, a little better. Brad Richards is having a great year as a playmaker in Dallas.

He'd be on my list if Crosby, Richards(Mike), Getzlaf and Marleau weren't ahead of him. Toews, Sharp and Cammalleri deserve consideration. I just think Stamkos and Tavares are better. Brent Burns hasn't seemed to recover his offensive edge and is a little too risky on the defense without it. Bouwmeester likewise is a great skater but his offensive prowess doesn't justify his risk-taking.

Robyn Regehr is slowing down a bit. Scott Niedermeyer has been coughing up the puck in his own zone all year long. You can't have that at the Olympics. Marty Turco, Ray Emery and Carey Price have all had good years so far.

I just don't trust Price and Emery. Turco has a better track record but I'd probably pull him in to replace Brodeur as the veteran and Brodeur has better numbers and a better track record. Steve Mason has had a poor start to his sophomore year.

Canada's chances

I think Canada at home will be under incredible pressure. The offense looks good and the defenseman seem fast, tough and skilled. If they get decent goaltending I think this team can win gold.

If they're shut out of the medals on home soil in an NHL sized rink, expect a federal government inquiry and perhaps some sort of referendum. Steve Yzerman might get his spot in the hall of fame revoked. All that said this team has to do better then the seventh they managed at Turin. There's no way Canada is the seventh best hockey nation in the world. I'm calling them for the Gold.

Gold: Canada

Silver: Russia

Bronze: USA

Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics: US Men's Hockey Team

Scott Weldon — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:59:16 -0500

Zach Parise is the simplest pick on this US team destined to go to Vancouver for the Olympics. Who else will or should make up this team and how will they fare?

Goaltenders

This is the strongest set of US goalies ever available for any US international team. This may be the first time since the 1996 World Cup with Mike Richter that the US is entering an international tournament with the best goaltending in the world.

Ryan Miller of the Buffalo Sabres is looking like the starter on this team. Craig Anderson and last year's Vezina trophy winner Tim Thomas will back him up. That's depth in nets.

Last year Thomas lead all goalies who played at least a third of their team's games with a .933 save percentage. Craig Anderson was third and Ryan Miller was eighth. Nice grouping.

This year Miller is tied for first, Anderson is fourth, and Thomas is 12th—tied with Henrik Lundquist.

Goaltending should be an American strength at these Olympics.

Jonathon Quick would be the fourth US goalie and the first injury replacement, but he won't be needed.

Defensemen

Brian Rafalski will be the veteran leader on this defense. He still can skate and be the power play quarterback.

Brooks Orpik is the nasty edged shutdown guy crucial for playoff success. He should still be valuable in an Olympics being played on NHL-sized rinks.

Ryan Suter still looks great on a horrible Nashville team, +2 on that team is incredible.

Eric Johnson is another huge kid who can move the puck. Zach Bogosian the Atlanta rookie has yet to look out of place in the NHL. Here's his chance to excel at another level.

John Michael Lilles is a more mature defensemen who can move the puck and score. He's out with a bad shoulder until late November. If he's healthy he should be the other point man on the power play, otherwise Joe Corvo can fill his spot.

Ryan Whitney was a lock for this team when he was one of the best defensemen on a Pittsburgh team that lost to Detroit in the Stanley Cup.

Since then he's suffered a mysterious foot ailment and been traded at last year's deadline to Anaheim for Chris Kunitz. He was a goal scorer and a puck mover on the Pittsburgh defense as well as being a big strong kid on the blue line.

He's been a half-point per game scorer since the injury and his 12-14 goals a season are looking more like 4-6. Still, if he's skating well and seems healthy he'd be my seventh defenseman on the US Olympic team.

I'd keep seven defensemen on my Olympic roster, while the eighth guy or first injury replacement could be power play quarterback and veteran Joe Corvo or young Dallas defenseman Matt Niskanen. Keith Yandle is also an option as the eigth defenseman as is Rob Scuderi.

New Jersey veteran Paul Martin would be on my team but the 28 year old is out for 4-6 weeks with a fractured wrist. Alex Gologoski is having a breakout offensive year in Pittsburgh. His inexperience and poor performance last year kept him out of the mix this year and he's currently hurt.

Matt Carle is another offensive defenseman whose defensive liabilities are too glaring. Jack Johnson is another kid with a great international hockey resume, but his tendency to jump into the rush has lead to a five-point -10 season on a good LA team.

Tom Gilbert was another offensively skilled defenseman who didn't look quite as good as some of the alternatives. Mike Komisarek is hurt and too weak defensively.

Forwards

Zach Parise is a nice, easy pick for first line LW. He's the best US born player in the league and lead the US to victory in the world junior tournament in Helsinki. Paul Stasny is another lock as a top line offensive center.

Sniper Phil Kessel is a player with above world-class speed and he puts the puck in the net. He's my first line right winger.

Scott Gomez at 30 is going to be one of the veterans on this team. The quick playmaker likes to hang on to the puck too long, but he's good with it and has had success at the international level.

Patrick Kane is another kid with world-class speed. He can play on any scoring line the US puts together. James Van Riemsdyk is having a point-a-game start to his season. The big kid has starred on a couple of good US world junior teams and led that tournament in scoring in 2008.

Tim Connolly is my third line center because he's got a world of talent and just needs to stay healthy until the Olympics. I'd put young power forward Bobby Ryan on this line. He's a sniper who other teams will struggle to handle physically. Los Angeles's Dustin Brown is a gritty must-have player on this team.

My last line would be the checking line with Ryan Kesler at center, Kyle Okposo on one wing, and Ryan Malone on the other. All three have offensive skills, Kesler is gritty, Malone has size, and Okposo has a world of talent.

My 13th forward would be Brian Gionta. He's another streak on skates that scores. He's had good experiences at the international level and worked with Scott Gomez before.

My first couple of injury replacements would be Joe Pavelski, Jamie Langenbrunner, Jason Pominville, and Dustin Byfuglien depending on who went down. Langenbrunner and Pavelski could just as easily have been on my fourth or third lines.

Injuries keep Brandon Dubinsky (broken wrist—6 weeks), Chris Drury (concussion—day-to-day), David Booth(concussion—indeterminate), and Mike Knuble (broken finger—a month) from being considered.

Mike Modano, Keith Tkachuk and Bill Guerin are just too old for this tournament. They'd probably hurt the team's chances, though I'd like to see Mike get a shot as captain of the US Olympic team.

I would have expected Peter Mueller to be good enough for this team by now, but last year's horrible performance and this year's bad start have disqualified the swift youngster.

David Backes is another good player who's having a horrible season.

My Olympic Roster (Grade)

Goalies (A) : It's a good sign when the Vezina trophy winner is perhaps your third goalie.

1. Ryan Miller

2. Craig Anderson

3. Tim Thomas

Defense (B) : A lot of good, solid, physical players and tough skaters, but not as much offense from the defense as you'd like in this tournament. Eric Johnson and Zach Bogosian could surprise.

First Pair: Ryan Suter, Brian Rafalski

Second Pair: Brooks Orpik, Eric Johnson

Third Pair: John-Michael Lilles(i), Zach Bogosian

Fourth Pair: Ryan Whitney (Joe Corvo)

Extra: Matt Niskanen

Forwards (B-) : This team doesn't have the scoring that past US teams have boasted but there is plenty of speed and lots of youth. If the goaltending and defense holds up this group could score enough.

First Line: LW Zach Parise, C Paul Stasny, RW Patrick Kane

Second Line: LW Dustin Brown, C Scott Gomez, RW Phil Kessel

Third Line: LW James Van Riemsdyk, C Tim Connolly, RW Bobby Ryan

Fourth Line: LW Ryan Malone, C Ryan Kesler, RW Kyle Okposo

Extra: Brian Gionta

Results

There's a lot of young skill and speed on this team. The defense is made up of young, big, rangy skaters and will be tough. The goaltending should be solid and could be the best in the tournament though Finland, the Czech's and Sweden should all have great goaltending.

The US has done well at the world junior hockey championships over the last decade. American players under 20 have competed consistently well against their international peers.

The last decade has produced a gold and bronze medal, and only (except for a ninth place finish in 1999) all fourth and fifth-place finishes. During those 10 years James Van Riemsdyk, Eric Johnson, Phil Kessel, Zach Parise, and Brian Gionta have lead the tournament or tied for the lead in scoring.

It's these players who will star for the US now and they should certainly finish higher than the eighth place managed in Turin.

The format for this Olympic tournament has the 12 teams divided into three four-team divisions. The US is in a division with Canada, Norway, and Switzerland.

The teams play a round-robin within their own division to get seeded. The four teams with the best records in the first round will get a bye to the quarterfinals. The US will need to beat or tie Canada in the first round to ensure a top-four finish.

The bottom eight teams play each other in a fifth vs. 12th and sixth vs. 11th format. The winner of the fifth vs. 12th matchup will play the fourth overall team in the quarterfinals.

The first overall team gets to play against the winner of the eight vs. ninth matchup.

The US should expect to beat Norway and Switzerland. At worst they'll be the fifth to eighth seed, which will line them up against a beatable Germany, Latvia, or Norway in the first round.

A quarterfinal matchup would be against a Sweden or Czech Republic-type of team. There are no easy games in the tournament at this point. The US will have to be on the top of their game to advance, but I like them to win Bronze.

A Gold medal is possible but tough for anyone. A single knockout tournament favours the hot team.

The talented young hockey players the US is producing makes me think it's only going to get better in the future.

2009 US Olympic Men's Orientation Camp Roster (Aug. 17-18)

Goaltenders

Ryan Miller (Buffalo Sabres), Jonathan Quick (Los Angeles Kings), Tim Thomas (Boston Bruins).

Defensemen

Tom Gilbert (Edmonton Oilers), Tim Gleason (Carolina Hurricanes), Ron Hainsey (Atlanta Thrashers), Erik Johnson (St. Louis Blues), Jack Johnson (Los Angeles Kings), Mike Komisarek (Montreal Canadiens), Paul Martin (New Jersey Devils), Brooks Orpik (Pittsburgh Penguins), Brian Rafalski (Detroit Red Wings), Rob Scuderi (Pittsburgh Penguins), Ryan Suter (Nashville Predators), Ryan Whitney (Anaheim Ducks).

Forwards

David Backes (St. Louis Blues), David Booth (Florida Panthers), Dustin Brown (Los Angeles Kings), Dustin Byfuglien (Chicago Blackhawks), Ryan Callahan (New York Rangers), Chris Drury (New York Rangers), Scott Gomez (New York Rangers), Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks), Ryan Kesler (Vancouver Canucks), Phil Kessel (Boston Bruins), Jamie Langenbrunner (New Jersey Devils), Ryan Malone (Tampa Bay Lightning), Mike Modano (Dallas Stars), Kyle Okposo (New York Islanders), T.J. Oshie (St. Louis Blues), Zach Parise (New Jersey Devils), Joe Pavelski (San Jose Sharks), Bobby Ryan (Anaheim Ducks), Paul Stastny (Colorado Avalanche).

The Slovenian Sport: Anze Kopitar of the LA Kings Is Freakishly Good

Scott Weldon — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:19:36 -0500

Now, if you ask me who the leading scorer in the NHL is right now, I'd guess Alex Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby. I might think Evgeny Malkin or Pavel Datsyuk. There's an outside shot it's Zach Parise or Henrik Zetterburg. You ask me where he's from, and there's no way I'm saying Slovenia.

Honestly, Slovenia sounds like a made up country. Isn't that where Boris and Natasha from the Rocky and Bullwinkle cartoon came from? My geographical ignorance isn't completely unfounded. This country is so new the CIA world fact book gives me a map, a flag, and nothing else. Oh and the capital is Ljubljana. But we all knew that.

Slovenia, with its two million people and one thousand registered hockey players and one tiny port on the Adriatic (Koper), was once an integral part of Yugoslavia. For the last 19 years, it has been it's own independent republic.

That's right, the NHL scoring leader is actually older then the country he comes from. How's that for a Zen koan that'll keep you meditating on the meaning of life?

Anze Kopitar was effectively identified, scouted, assessed and drafted despite the fact that he played mostly in Slovenian hockey leagues. When he was drafted by LA he basically had a year of play in the Swedish junior league under his belt.

He'd also played 15 games as a 17 year old in the Swedish Elite league, regular season and playoffs, but he hadn't scored a point.

NHL scouts in general and the LA Kings specifically liked what they saw anyway. They saw a big fast talented kid who managed to dominate in every league he moved up into. He seemed physical enough that the common fear he wouldn't be able to handle the punishment in the NHL didn't surface.

He was ranked as the top player coming out of Europe that year and as high as the fifth best player in a very talent rich NHL entry draft pool (2005).

The evaluation of Kopitar was bang on. This seeking out of high quality hockey talent in Slovenia has to be analogous to major league baseball finding an all-star shortstop in Iceland. This discovery of great hockey talent in an obscure hockey backwater has to be reassuring for Bob Sirois.

His fear that Quebec hockey talented is being ignored and passed over by the NHL is likely to prove groundless. If Anze Kopitar can be found hiding in the northwest corner of the former Yugoslavia you can be sure that the home of Mario Lemieux, Rocket Richard, Jean Beliveau and Gilbert Perreault is gone over with a fine tooth comb.

The talent-starved NHL is weighing every baby born in quebec and trying them on skates at three just to be sure. If a kid from La Belle Province doesn't make the NHL there's probably a good reason, but it's not lack of exposure to scouting or a chance to play the game.

Anze Kopitar slipped a bit in the Crosby draft. He was eventually taken 11th not 58th where he was ranked.

Despite the fact that the 2005 draft has so far produced NHLers Bobby Ryan, Jack Johnson, Devin Setoguchi, Marc Staal, Marc-Eduoard Vlasic, Martin Hanzal, TJ Oshie, Paul Stasny, Ondrej Pavelec, Tuuka Rask, Kris Letang, Keith Yandle, Jonathon Quick, Jared Boll, Darren Helm, Kris Russell, Mason Raymond, Andrew Cogliano, and Carey Price among others, I'm going to have to say Kopitar looks like the second or third best player to be drafted that year.

Los Angeles at the time already had two blue chip prospects at forward. Alex Frolov and Mike Cammalleri had starred for their respective hockey nations (Canada and Russia)at the world junior tournament in 2002. Cammalleri lead the tournament in scoring. Frolov lead his team back to victory in the gold medal game against Canada.

After they fell behind 3-1 in the second period Frolov and the Russians eventually won 5-4. It was obvious that the two best players in this tournament between the best under-20 hockey players in the world were future LA Kings.

It might have seemed redundant then to pick another offensively talented forward when a Vlasic, Staal or Rask were available. Thank goodness they did. LA has since traded Mike Cammalleri for a draft pick and Alexander Frolov has suffered through periods of seeming disinterest that have culminated in a Kovalev-like healthy scratch this year.

Kopitar since he was drafted spent one season in the Swedish elite league and then came unerringly to the NHL. He started like he belonged no where else. His big body (6'4", 220lbs) and speed have made him difficult to contain and his talent have allowed him to score like few others.

He hasn't spent a minute in the minors. He had 20 goals and 61 points as a rookie. He didn't make the top ten of hockeyfutures.com preseason poll of likely Calder Trophy winners perhaps because they didn't think he'd make the team.

The three nominees that year turned out to be Paul Stasny (g28 a50 pts78), Evgeny Malkin (g33 a 52 pts 85) and Jordan Staal (g 29 a 13 pts 42). Kopitar was everyone's fourth choice but he was already an NHL regular and a good one.

His next two years Kopitar played full seasons flirting with a point a game in 2007/08 (77pts in 82 games). There was a drop-off last year after Cammalleri was traded away.

Now however on a new line with Ryan Smyth and Justin Williams, Kopitar has already experienced the first fifth of a breakout season. He is leading the entire league again in scoring. However it's not the junior or senior Slovenian league, it's not even the Swedish junior league.

Anze Kopitar is leading the NHL in scoring. Despite the lack of anything resembling an NHL pedigree his 28 pts in eighteen games have him on pace to score over 125 points this year.

He has helped rejuvenate a moribund LA King offense (third worst in the league last year). They are currently the third highest scoring team in the league. They're threatening, though it's early days yet, to take a playoff spot. It's been an amazing trip for a kid from Jesenice.

His talent and drive are leading him to the top in the NHL. Is he going to be able to take the Kings with him? Time will tell.

NHL Halloween Horror Stories: Horrific Start for Six Teams

Scott Weldon — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 10:01:56 -0400

It's early days yet in the NHL regular season. Teams have played barely an eighth of their games so far. There are teams that are digging themselves a fairly deep grave. If they don't turn things around, their seasons could be over before they've begun.

1) Toronto Maple Leafs were expected to do poorly this year, but so far they've exceeded expectations and been abysmal. The team's defense that was supposed to be greatly improved is still around the middle of the pack. The goaltending and scoring have been horrible.

Phil Kessel should help improve the offense and the Leafs can't keep being this bad all season long. The fight now seems to be to keep from getting a lottery pick in the draft. If the Bruins end up with a top-five pick in the draft this year, early calls for the head of Brian Burke will begin.

2) Carolina Hurricanes have started their season with two victories, one of which they got in overtime over Tampa Bay. They've given up the same amount of goals as Washington, but that's where all comparisons end.

They're on a seven-game losing streak and play Philadelphia Halloween night. Erik Cole has a broken leg and Tuomo Ruuttu is serving the last game of his three-game suspension. Cam Ward has a reasonable .905 save percentage and 2.89 GAA but he gave up three goals on 16 shots in their last loss to St Louis.

The offense may be demoralizing him. Carolina has scored 26 goals tying them with Toronto and better only than the pitiable 24 Nashville has managed in 11 games. The good news is that a team with Eric Staal and Ray Whitney will score more goals than the Toronto Maple Leafs. Will they get moving in time to keep the rest of team from sinking into oblivion?

3) Nashville Predators were a non-playoff team that chose to stand pat in the offseason. Goalies Pekka Rinne and Dan Ellis both started the season slow. Pekka has just managed a shut-out over the Blackhawks and I don't imagine goaltending will be a problem in the long run for this team. Scoring will be.

The team is scoring two goals a game. David Legwand has zero goals and two assists in twelve games. Martin Erat has a goal, is minus nine, and is now out injured. Jason Arnott is 35 and out for another week with an injury.

JP Dumont has nine points in eight games, but he's missed four games already. Steve Sullivan is playing well but is fragile. His career could end at any moment. This team is looking to get a lock on a lottery pick if they don't get some scoring by December.

They have over $13 million in cap space that they've chosen not to use to address their weaknesses. Two of their top four scorers are super defenders Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. There's a lot of 2-1 victories in their future if they expect to succeed with this lineup.

4) Anaheim Ducks have four wins this year, one of them by shoot-out. They are in last place in the Pacific, seven points behind the constantly maligned Phoenix Coyotes.

Anaheim is giving up 35.8 shots per game. This is comparable only to Florida's horrific 36.6 shots per game. Last year they gave up a closer to the middle 30.5 shots per game. The loss of Beauchemin and Pronger seems to have had a significant impact on this team.

The goalies have been taking the rap though Hillers .914 save percentage and 3.06 GAA are pretty good considering.

The good news is the Ducks have only played two games against division rivals. That leaves another 22 games to beat up on division rivals. They face Phoenix tonight in Phoenix after beating the Luongo-less Canucks 7-2 in Vancouver. This would be a good game for them to win.

The bad news is the Ducks need to scramble over six teams to get back in the playoffs. They lost a game to the Leafs. Ryan Getzlaf started slow and no one seemed ready to pick up that slack. Now that he's going, perhaps the rest of them will pick it up.

5) Florida Panthers are giving up the most shots per game in the league, for the third straight year. You'd think a long term problem like this would get addressed. Vokoun and Clemmenson haven't given the Panthers the Craig Anderson-like numbers that they need to succeed.

The 44 goals against is worse then everyone in the league but Toronto. The talented 33-year-old checker Steve Reinprecht had a hat trick last game and is leading this team offensively. Someone else, say a naturally talented offensive player, should be leading this team in scoring.

Thirty-one goal scorer is out for at least another week with a concussion. One of their few veterans Radek Dvorak is also out for another couple weeks with a ligament tear in his knee.

6) Vancouver Canucks are on this list only because of the macabre list of injuries they've suffered already in this young system. The anchor for their second scoring line Pavol Demitra has yet to play after shoulder surgery in the offseason. He's been reevaluated and is apparently going to be operated on again.

Daniel Sedin the scoring twin has a broken foot and is expected to miss at least another three weeks. Captain and goaltender Roberto Luongo started slow was picking it up but now has a fractured rib which should keep him out of at least two or three more games.

Expect Andrew Raycroft to be every bit as effective for Vancouver as Patrick Lalime was for Buffalo last year. Also hurt Bolduc, Wellwood, Johnson and Hansen. This .500 team can be expected to slip, especially with Luongo out or impaired. By the time the lineup gets healthy it may be too late for them in the Northwest.

These teams have plenty of time to turn things around. Vancouver just needs to get healthy quick. Anaheim needs to tighten up and beat those division rivals. Nashville could spend some money and add some scoring talent. Toronto, Florida, and Carolina don't have much cap room left. Probably the players they have need to play better.

Still, when all is said and done, I bet one of these teams will be the worst team in the league and be looking to draft Taylor Hall this June. Ehr, unless the Leafs finish last.

NHL: General Managers Trying To Tweak Lineups

Scott Weldon — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:01:52 -0400

I'm a big fan of general managers in hockey who are trying to get it done.

I lived through the 80s in Calgary where there was a constant push to make the team better. They needed to compete with the 1980s Edmonton Oilers, arguably one of the best teams in hockey, and they always tried to do that. I also lived through the Craig Button, Doug Risebourough, and Al Coates 90s where the Flames were dumping salary and talent as fast as they could. They did give us a new uniform and slogan every year. I believe my favourite tandem was the flaming horse and "All Out Every Shift."

Given the choice I'll take an organization and management that's always trying to improve the team. It's tougher in today's salary cap environment. Teams are limited by salary. If their team gets too good, or if their players all get good at once they can be seriously limited by the salary cap. Just ask the Chicago Blackhawks.

The following are three little moves that GM's have made recently. They're the type of move teams need to make addressing weaknesses in a cost-effective manner. I like to see these moves because it shows the organization is paying attention and is trying to improve the team.

Bob Gainey spent the off-season doing nothing but making moves. The complete reworking of the line-up has the team looking marginally worse then when he started. Then Andre Markov, Montreals best defenseman, went down with an achilles tendon injury. He's out for four to five months. Last year when Markov and Komisarek were injured, the Habs couldn't buy a win. There's been a need in Montreal for a first-rate power play quarterback since Souray left.

Finally Gainey went out and signed Marc Andre Bergeron. Bergeron is a smallish, one dimensional offensive defenseman who has always seemed like a perfect fit in Montreal. The speedy point man scored fifteen goals as a rookie with Edmonton and helped them in their run to the cup that year. Since then, he's had trouble hooking on with teams. He seems to be the defensive equivalent of Ted Nolan. He's good at what he does, but nobody wants him. Edmonton, the Islanders, Anaheim, and Minnesota have all let him go. Montreal has picked him up for $750,000 for one year. He scored fourteen goals with Minnesota last year and has to help Montreal's power play.

If the swift skating playmaker manages to move the puck out of his own zone he should provide a nice counter-point to the glaciar-like Gill. I'm not thrilled with Gainey's ability to evaluate talent but I like this move. It addresses several Montreal weaknesses and is a low cost, low risk addition.

Randy Sexton was finally pegged in as the Florida Panthers general manager. Despite having no one in that position during the off-season Florida didn't have a terrible off-season. The Craig Anderson loss and Scott Clemmenson gain will hopefully be a wash for them. I'm no Leopold fan but I like the signing of playoff hero Dennis Seidenberg away from division rival Carolina.

Once Randy Sexton came on board, he ran out and signed Dominic Moore for $1.1 million a year. Dominic is a credible checking forward with some offensive skills. Stick him with Steve Reinprecht and you've got two thirds of a very good shut-down line with counter attack ability. Florida was the worst defensive team in hockey last year giving up the most shots per game. They were bailed out by great goaltending by Vokoun and Anderson. A defensive improvement can be expected when a good quick shut-down line is put together to neutralize other teams scorers.

Especially in the Southeast Division where your divisional opponents tend to rely heavily on one big line, Staal in Carolina, Lecavilier in Tampa Bay, Kovalchuk in Atlanta, Ovechkin in Washington, a checking line should pay dividends. This was a nice job by Sexton evaluating weakness and trying to plug the hole cheap.

Finally Don Wadell in Atlanta understands it's crucial for his organization to hang on to star Ilya Kovalchuk. During the off-season they picked up expensive power play quarterback Pavel Kubina. They also signed and over paid for Ilya's buddy Nik Antropov. Wadell could have stopped there but he's gone out and picked up ex-Sabre Maxim Afinegenov. At one point in his career Maxim looked like a young Alex Mogilny. He wasn't scoring a lot of goals but ninety percent of them were on the highlight reels. Afinegnov is fast and he scores more end to end rush goals then almost any player in the league. Unfortunately it turns out that his ability to finish is limited. His career trajectory has been more like Sergei Samsonov's then Alex Mogilny's. After a couple of point a game seasons in Buffalo he's become a half point a game offensive player and played himself off the team. The good news is he's still a streak on skates with a ton of moves. Playing with someone like Kovalchuk who could finish rushes for him can only help. His speed will give Kovalchuk another offensive threat to play with. He can back defenseman down and create openings with that speed and talent. He only costs $800,000 so if it doesn't work out it's no huge loss.

None of these are big crucial deals but I like them. They address team needs for an offensive defenseman, a checker who can score, and another offensive threat to play with your star. These deals are cost effective and short term so there's no huge financial risk being taken on. All three of these teams have spent fifty three million dollars or more against the cap and so are hard-pressed to make player moves to improve their team. These teams and their GM's have managed to, I believe, improve their teams despite that. Good for them.

Gretzky Passes Howe: Oct 15,1989

Scott Weldon — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:03:43 -0400

Twenty years ago in the Northlands Coliseum in Edmonton, Wayne Gretzky returned to play a hockey game. This wasn't his first return to the arena where he'd won four Stanley Cups.

"The Trade" had sent the greatest player in hockey, in the prime of his career, from a dynasty-winning team in Edmonton to also-ran division rival Los Angeles.

He'd played against Edmonton in the regular season the year before. More importantly he'd led his L.A. Kings past Edmonton in a tough seven-game series during the 1988-89 playoffs. He had effectively dethroned the Oilers and derailed the dynasty.

There were upset fans in Edmonton. Owner Peter Pocklington was the lighting rod for most of their hate. Wayne however was also on the receiving end of abuse from Oilers fans who had watched him beat their team and end their domination.

This night however Gretzky was back for posterity. This young man was one point away from surpassing the all-time career point record in the NHL.

Gordie Howe held the record that was once thought unbreakable. Mr. Hockey set his record in 1960 passing Maurice "Rocket" Richard. If Richard was hockey's Babe Ruth; first to score 50 goals in a season and 500 hundred in a career, then Gordie was hockey's Hank Aaron. He was talented, steady and professional through his whole long career. He accumulated most of his points during 25 years in the brutal six-team NHL. He also managed one 80-game season at age 51 with the Hartford Whalers in 1979-80. He retired with 1,850 points. This was almost twice the 965 points the Rocket finished with.

Gordie was a great player who played forever. He scored, stickhandled and played the game harder then any man alive. He thought about the game all the time. No one was ever going to catch him because he was one of a kind.

Yet here was Gretzky, only 28 years old. This was his 11th season in the NHL and he was poised to break the greatest of all the hockey records. Gretzky won the Hart trophy as the most valuable player in the league his first year in. Then he won eight of them in a row. He lost the scoring trophy his first year to Marcel Dionne of the Kings because Dionne scored more goals. Gretzky won the next seven Art Ross trophies. He won the Conn Smythe trophy as the most valuable player in the playoffs for two of the four championship Oiler teams. Gretzky had done all this and was ready now to pass the greatest player in NHL history. He'd break the unbreakable record, all before he turned 30.

This Edmonton crowd was keen to have Gretzky break the record here, at "home" in Edmonton. They'd seen he was the greatest of all time. They wanted to be there to see it proven statistically.

The Oiler team was less enthusiastic about having "the Great One" embarrass them again. The first-round playoff loss to a team that they wouldn't have noticed before Gretzky joined them still burned.

Coach John Muckler played his best checker Esa Tikkanen against Gretzky all night. Esa battered and bruised his old teammate as only he could, all while maintaining his constant incomprehensible chatter. What passed in Edmonton for a shut-down pair, Kevin Lowe and Steve Smith, played as much as possible against Wayne. In the end they couldn't stop him.

Wayne came in to that game with 1,849 points. He got his first assist early to tie the record. The fans cheered. The Oilers concentrated on Gretzky while playing a tough game. They kept surrendering one goal leads until late in the third period. They were leading 4-3 in the dying minutes and the local fans were chanting for Gretzky. He came on to the ice and stayed there for the last three minutes of the game. A failed Kevin Lowe clearing attempt made it to Steve Duchesne who whacked the puck toward the net. The puck bounced off Dave Taylor and found it's way to Wayne who'd slid in front of the net. He backhanded the puck over Bill Ranford to tie the game with less then a minute left.

The fans exploded with a three-minute standing ovation for Gretzky and all he'd done. This was followed by a more well-orchestrated 15-minute tribute by the Kings, the NHL and the Oilers. Pocklington didn't dare show his face on the ice, though it's said he congratulated Gretzky afterward in private. The Kings and Oilers players celebrated with Gretzky, the greatest hockey player of all time. That night, the playoff loss and the move to L.A. was forgiven. Gretzky enjoyed his triumph in Edmonton.

When things finally calmed down the game was resumed and went to overtime. Gretzky scored the winner in OT to finish with 1,852 points. Who could have thought it would end any differently?

NHL Central Division 2009-10: Review and Preview

Scott Weldon — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 10:11:04 -0400

Central Division

Last but not least is what was the best division in hockey last year. Chicago stepped forward to be among the league's elite last year.

St Louis and Columbus made the playoffs. Only Nashville was on the outside looking in last year and they made it close.

It will be tough for this competitive division to produce four playoff teams again next year, but I’ll almost guarantee three.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit had another great year finishing third overall in the NHL and making it to the Stanley Cup finals for the second year in a row. They were outdueled in the final by a younger, hungrier Pittsburgh Penguin team, but they're back to try again.

Detroit has been the exception to the rule that you need first-class goaltending to win in the NHL playoffs. Osgood had a horrible regular season. Ty Conklin, playing almost half of his team's minutes, had a better statistical year then Osgood did.

The career journeyman Osgood seemed to gather himself for the playoffs and behind that stellar defense made very few mistakes. Goaltending in the end wasn’t the reason they lost.

Jimmy Howard, the young back-up, doesn’t look ready for the NHL. Detroit will have to address their goaltending woes soon, but right now at $1.4 million a year Osgood provides competent cheap veteran goaltending.

Detroit doesn’t have the cap room to seek an expensive free agent, but perhaps they could make a deal for someone else’s reasonably priced goalie. Josh Harding in Minnesota or Martin Biron from the Islanders would represent an upgrade in nets.

The defense has long considered one of the best in hockey. They gave up the second fewest shots on goal in the league last year. The big three, Lidstrom, Rafalski and Kronwall are perhaps the three best puck movers in the game.

Jonathon Ericsson seems to be a first-rate puck mover. Lebda is another fast defenseman and Lilja is good. Their hitter Stuart is starting to wear down and they could probably use another young shut-down guy in the mix.

This defense is still one of the best in the league. Lidstrom at 39 is approaching retirement age. Chelios needs to retire.

Detroit scored 295 goals last year to lead the league. From that line-up they lost Hudler who has signed with the KHL and Samuelsson who has gone to Vancouver.

The core of the offense is locked up long term with Datsyuk under contract for another five years at $6.7 million a year, Zetterburg for 12 years at $6 million a year, and Franzen for 11 years for almost four million a year.

For the next five years, barring injury, Detroit should score.

If the NHL takes off financially again then, these contracts will seem bargains by the end.

If the NHL has huge economic problems and contracts, they’ll be millstones hung around the team's neck.

Detroit has given the NHL and Detroit a vote of confidence in troubled times. Todd Bertuzzi and Jason Williams have been brought in to provide secondary scoring. Tomas Holmstrom had problems in the playoffs and may be replaced by Bertuzzi if he can no longer compete at an elite level.

The aging checkers McCarty and Draper are going to have to be replaced eventually. Patrick Eaves was picked up cheap to perhaps bring some offense in a checking role.

Dan Cleary, Darren Helm, Leino, Filpulla, and Abdelkader will all be looked to for offensive depth. I don’t think Detroit will lead the league in scoring again this year.

Detroit has cap problems. Having Hudler go to the KHL for two years while they retain his NHL rights is probably a god-send. They can get him again in two years for today’s price and won’t have to pay him in the interim.

I believe Detroit can win the President's trophy this year. I see them certainly finishing first in the west. They need to address their cap issues and their goaltending problems. Winning with Osgood in nets is like doing it with one hand tied behind your back.

Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago made a huge leap forward last year. They had the third-best record in the west and finished fourth.

They handled their two Northwest opponents Vancouver and Calgary in the first two rounds of the playoffs. They couldn’t match Detroit in the Western final but they had a great playoff run for such a young team.

Cristobel Huet was brought in last year to replace the older Nikolai Khabibulin. Huet has had success in a tandem situation, but when his workload or the pressure gets to be too much, he’s had a tendency to wilt.

He lost the regular season job to Khabibulin who was in a contract year. Huet, I believe, needs a veteran goalie to share the load with. He hasn’t done well when it’s only him.

Chicago, to go anywhere in the playoffs, will need to bring in another goalie before the year's end.

The defense is a young talented group of puck movers. Seabrook and Keith seem to be the smooth skating shut-down guys and Cam Barker showed moments of offensive creativity that suggest power play quarterback may be his destiny.

The expensive Brian Campbell is still a great offensive defenseman. When you’re making over $7 million a year people notice those defensive lapses more, though. Chicago’s cap problems probably have them wishing they could move Campbell and his contract.

Hjalmarsson is another strong skating defenseman. Sopel is approaching the end of a so-so career, but with so many youngsters, it’s nice to have somebody over 30 on the blueline.

The Blackhawks scored 264 goals last year. They and/or Washington will probably lead the league this year.

They picked up veteran Marian Hossa to be their offensive leader. He’s coming off shoulder surgery and should be ready to go in mid November. Martin Havlat was left to sign with Minnesota.

Top end young talents Patrick Kane and Jonathon Toews are both in the year before they become restricted free agents. Look for them to explode this year after blooming last.

Old timers John Madden and Tomas Kopecky have been brought in to form a shut down line.

There’s a zoo of young talent in this Chicago line-up looking to move forward. Patrick Sharp has already established himself.

Dave Bolland, Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien, Troy Brouwer, Colin Fraser, and Adam Burrish are all capable of making a contribution. Look for the talented Jack Skille to make the team.

This team made it on talent last year. Look for them to add their winning experience to the mix. I see Chicago being a closer second in the Central but perhaps also finishing second in the West.

They’ll still be the fourth seed in the playoffs but I think this year if they get someone to play with Huet, they’ll make the Stanley Cup finals.

St Louis Blues

St Louis made the playoffs last year for the first time since the lock-out. They lost quickly to the Vancouver Canucks.

Chris Mason had a top ten year for St Louis. He had the ninth best goals against average among goalies who played at least a third of their team's minutes. His save percentage was 12th best in the same group of 43 goalies.

Legace had a bad year as a back-up in St Louis (.885 save percentage, 3.18 GAA). St. Louis brought in Detroit back-up Ty Conklin and he’ll be an upgrade.

Injuries were the story last year in St Louis starting with Eric Johnson blowing a knee in a golf cart accident.

Eric Brewer followed that up with back problems and two operations. He’s starting this year on the injured list after pre-season arthroscopic surgery but he’s expected back soon.

Johnson, if he manages to stay healthy, will represent a huge grade on the blue-line for St. Louis. The big youngster is nasty and can move and shoot.

Pietreangelo should make the team this year and the first-round pick will be another upgrade.

The physical Jackman, Colaiacovo and Weaver should round out what will be a good defense. They lost youngster Woywitka to Dallas and slowing veteran McKee to Pittsburgh.

Before Kariya and McDonald got hurt, St. Louis with Brad Boyes had three point-a-game players. They’ll have another shot at it this year.

The talented Peron and budding power forward Backes should both step forward this year. Patrick Berglund at 20 played like a veteran providing 2/3 of a point a game. That’s sure to increase.

Veteran power forward Keith Tkachuk is still providing a useful offensive contribution and he’s tough as nails. Throw in spirited youngster TJ Oshie, and St Louis boasts an offense that could feature eight 20-goal scorers. Maybe even former first round pick Alex Steen will flourish in St. Louis?

It’s going to be a tough year in the Central division. I think this young St. Louis team will make the playoffs. I like them to press Chicago and perhaps pass San Jose, finishing fifth in the west, third again in the central. This should be a tough playoff team.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus made the playoffs for the first time in their history. Their defensive system and goaltending couldn’t handle Detroit’s offensive depth and they were swept in the first round.

The goaltending was the cornerstone of this young franchise. Steve Mason pushed past the previous year's standout goalie, Pascal Leclaire, when the latter got injured. He led the league in shut-outs with 10 last year.

Leclaire had nine the year before. When they had Leclaire, Norrena and Mason, they had three of the best young goalies in hockey. Leclaire was traded to Ottawa for a speedy checker. Norrena is now in Europe.

They’ve brought in career veteran back up Mathieu Garon to help the youngster out. Really though the organizations fate is on young Steve Mason’s shoulders.

His .916 save percentage (11th of 43 goalies), 2.29 GAA (second) and 10 shut-outs (first) suggest he’s up to it. He played 75 percent of his team's minutes last year. Garon might let him scale back to playing two-thirds of the team's games.

Hitchcock’s defensive system was very successful last year. They gave up the third fewest shots on goal in the league at 27.8 shots per game.

Tyutin provides some offensive ability and is solid as is Jan Hejda. Klesla and Russell provide some speed on the back end.

Big Old Mike Commodore is tough and spirited but cannot skate well. He’s a defensive liability if he plays too much. The minutes he gives you are physical and inspiring and every team needs that.

Marc Methot is probably the sixth defenseman. Columbus needs a first-rate offensive defenseman. Unfortunately I don’t think Marc Andre Bergeron is Ken Hitchcock’s kind of guy.

The offense was the weak link last year with 226 goals scored. That’s a very middle of the road number. Rick Nash one of the best power forwards in the league was a big part of that.

Derek Brassard was the youngster who centered the first line before he got hurt. If the offensively skilled youngster plays the season he could get a point a game.

Offensively, talented veteran Kristian Huselius rounds out the proven scorers.

There are a couple of highly talented youngsters who should contribute to the Columbus offense this year. I’d expect Jacob Voracek and Nikita Filatov to provide offense form the second line.

Columbus has collected a group of former checkers to fill out their line-up. RJ Umberger has some offensive skills to go with that defensively responsible resume. His -10 has to have been a disappointment.

Vermette, the former Ottawa checker, is quick and seems to be expected to provide offense. His career suggests he’s a half a point a game player at best. Sami Pahlsson was also signed in the off-season. He only brings defense.

Jason Chimera is another veteran with a checking resume. Raffi Torres and Fred Modin seem to have reached the end of the road as effective offensive players in the NHL. They can still bring talent depth and experience to a fourth line.

I see Columbus having trouble competing in the amped Central division. Their defense should be solid and their checking should be unprecedented.

Unfortunately I think they won’t be able to score enough to stay with the high-flying Wings, Hawks and Blues. I see them slipping to 10th behind Minnesota and LA.

A first-rate offensive center suddenly makes this team a ton better and gives you a skilled second youth line of Brassard, Filatov, and Voracek.

Columbus has over 10 million in cap room to work with. They may pick up some skilled bargains at the end of this year.

Nashville Predators

Nashville has perennially been the second-best team in the Central. Last year, they were passed by Chicago, St Louis and Columbus. They still only finished three points out of a playoff spot.

Despite the fact that Nashville seems to go with a new starting goalie every year they always seem to be great. Tomas Vokoun, Chris Mason, Dan Ellis, and Pekka Renne has been the succession. All these goalies seem very talented and do well after they move on.

Rinne and Ellis provide a very good duo and perhaps one of them can be moved for more offensive talent later in the season. Young, talented Chet Pickard waits in the wings.

The defense is anchored by three of the best young defensemen in hockey. Dan Hamhuis is the veteran at 28. He’s a hard skater and plays solid mistake free defense.

Shea Weber has the offensive skills and physical ability to dominate in both zones. He is probably going to be one of Team Canada’s defensemen in the upcoming Olympics.

Ryan Suter will be playing for the US in the same games and again brings size and skill to the game. Francois Bouillon a fair veteran defenseman has been signed a free agent for depth.

Kevin Klein will probably be a third pair defenseman on this team. Wade Belak is really not much of a defenseman any more. He can fight a little and provide a physical element.

Waiting in the wings is tiny first-round pick Ryan Ellis. The talented youngster will be a first-rate NHL power play quarterback. Quick and skilled, he should be the fourth defenseman in this line-up in a couple of years.

Nashville has suffered through a steady drain of talented players. General Manager David Poile has managed to keep the cupboard stocked. Eventually, though, the talent runs out.

Leading scorers Arnott and Dumont are pushing past their prime and will be susceptible to injury going forward. Steve Sullivan has returned from some debilitating back problems. He was able to provide a big boost last year and if healthy he should provide a skilled 2/3 of a point a game.

Unfortunately at his age (36) and with his history his career could end at any moment. David Legwand and the speedy Martin Erat provide good second-line talent. Nashville is missing the one big star on offense.

Alexander Radulov was looking to become that before he ran off to Russia. Colin Wilson is the best looking young prospect on the farm and may make the big club.

Nashville like Columbus has cap room. Their defense is great but skinny and their goaltending is just great. Scoring was a problem last year as they ranked with the Rangers on offense.

Steve Sullivan may boost things a bit but I can’t see the offense improving enough to let them compete in the Central.

I see Nashville finishing last again in the central and ahead of only Phoenix in the West. They’ve got a core but need to add some young scorers and more depth on defense.

2008-09 Central Division Final Standings 2009-10 Central Division Prediction

1/Detroit (2) 112 1/Detroit (1) 112

2/Chicago (4) 104 2/Chicago (4) 108

3/St Louis (6) 92 3/St Louis (5) 100

4/Columbus (7) 92 4/Columbus (10) 88

5/Nashville (10) 88 5/Nashville (14) 78

NHL Northeast Division 2009/2010: Review and Preview

Scott Weldon — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 12:12:29 -0400

he Northeast division had the second best winning percentage in the league last year at .561. Like the Northwest, they’re catering to some of the more rabid fan bases in hockey and so tend to spend and at times overspend every year. When Montreal, Toronto, or Ottawa don’t have a big new free agent signing by July there’s some screaming going on.

Boston has gotten into the same boat and has found itself in huge cap trouble this year. I’d expect Ottawa and Toronto to improve marginally and Boston to slip back a bit this year. Montreal and the only inactive northeastern team, Buffalo, should mill around just where they were last year.

Boston Bruins

Boston was the best team in the regular season in the east last year. They swept the Canadians in the first round. They then took too long to get going again against Carolina. They lost in seven to the Hurricanes.

Boston was running one of the better goaltending tandems in hockey last year with Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez teaming up. Thomas played two thirds of the team’s minutes. Among goalies that played at least a third of their teams minutes Thomas lead the league with a .933 save percentage and 2.10 GAA. This was on a Boston team that was offense oriented and gave up 30.8 shots per game.

This was the tenth highest total in the league and yet Boston had the best team goals against average in the league. They gave up a league fewest 196 goals. Manny Fernandez was left unsigned and 22-year-old prospect Tuukka Rask will be asked to assume the backup role. Thomas can be expected to play more games with a youngster as his backup and it will be interesting to see how those added minutes affect his Vezina trophy winning numbers.

Boston will be hoping to tighten up their defense this year. Gargantuan Zdeno Chara will lead the way with his physical presence and huge shot. Dennis Wideman gives them a second offensively skilled defenseman. Andrew Ference is a smaller guy but a good puck mover and skater. He’s pretty precise in his own zone and rarely makes mistakes.

Youngster Matt Hunwick was resigned for two years at $1.45 million a year. That gives them more puck moving youth on the blue line at a bargain price. Mark Stuart is another young defenseman though with more limited skills. He provides a more physical presence. Gritty veterans Hnidy and Ward were left to sign elsewhere because the Bruins didn’t have the cap space to bring back everyone.

Boston signed enigmatic defenseman Derek Morris for a year at 3.3 million dollars. Morris is an in-betweener. He’s not a shut down defensive defenseman and he’s not an offensive threat.

That tends to get him underestimated because he’s hard to categorize. The former first round pick is still a good skater and puck mover. He doesn’t have the finishing skills of a first class power play quarterback. He’s also more physical then you’d think. He can fight most of the leagues middleweights as well. Morris keeps the defense a collection of fast moving defensemen. He represents an upgrade from Hnidy and Ward and should be able to fit in nicely on the second defensive pairing. I think the defense will be better this year with him.

The forwards were Boston’s strength last year and their greatest strength was right down center. Savard is probably the second or third best playmaker in the league and fast and tricky to boot. They resigned David Krejci, perhaps the best second line center in the league for $3.75 million a year. That’s nice considering the year before that they paid Ryder four million a year.

Patrice Bergeron was one of the great young players in the league before his concussion. He hasn’t completely regained that form yet but perhaps this year he’ll manage to improve over last year which will allow Boston to grow the offense internally.

The big problem this year will be finishing. Boston chose to re-sign David Krejci and Matt Hunwick. They had no money left for last year’s goal scoring leader Phil Kessel. His 36 goals went to Toronto. Next on the depth chart was Michael Ryder but he’s historically topped out at 30. There has to be a hope that Marco Sturm back from injury, big fast Blake Wheeler, and the finely aged Mark Recchi can provide the scoring they’ll need. It is a little troubling. Lucic, Thornton, and Begin give them sandpaper and perhaps Lucic will chip in with 20 goals this year.

The Bruins look to be cash strapped all year which may get them into cap trouble by year's end. A deal to dump salary would help. I think they’ve improved the defense. Any offensive improvement is going to have to be internal with players having better years. Tim Thomas’s league leading numbers may decline a bit with work load this year. I look for Boston to win the Northeast handily again but finish behind Pittsburgh in the East.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal had a disappointing year. After finishing first in the Eastern Conference in 2007-08 they managed to sneak into eighth last year by virtue of having beaten the Florida Panthers in their season series. They were swept in the first round by the Bruins. A rebound season might have been anticipated with this line-up but instead Montreal blew it up and is starting over again almost from scratch.

The goaltending is being handled by two talented youngsters, Jaroslav Halak and Carey Price. Montreal gave up a lot of shots last year and while Halak seemed to thrive under that pressure, Price wilted. He was Gainey’s choice to carry them through the playoffs and he was weak.

They’ve hung their hopes on Price again this year and if he fails, they will miss the playoffs. Price has excelled at every other level of hockey. The problem in the NHL has seemed to be an inability to deal with the pressure and scrutiny in Montreal. The Habs will live and die with their two young goalies. If Price doesn’t pan out expect Gainey to be gone after this season.

Montreal’s defense last year had a lot of trouble in their own end. The 31.7 shots per game they gave up were seventh most in the league. They also missed the power play quarterbacks they’ve lost the last two years, Souray and Streit. The defense showed a lack of depth that became painful whenever one of their quality defensemen like Komisarek was hurt. They had no one to plug in the hole. Komisarek signed with Toronto. Bouillon signed with Nashville. Schneider is in Vancouver. Brisebois retired. Mathieu Dandenault has been left to seek employment elsewhere.

Who’s left? Andrei Markov is a first class puck moving defenseman with offensive skills. Roman Hamrlik is a 35-year-old defenseman who looked to be near the end when he was signed away from Calgary. He’s another in-between defenseman. He has some offensive skill. He’s a big-bodied player who sometimes provides a physical element. He’s old and slow however and grossly overpaid at $5.5 million a year for another two years.

Jaroslav Spacek was another 35-year-old brought in, I’m guessing, to help out on the power play. He doesn’t have Schneider’s shot and he’s also on the downward end of his talent curve. Stanley Cup winner and big bodied defenseman Hal Gill has also been brought in to provide a physical element and winning attitude. He’s got that, but this 35-year-old can’t skate and in any NHL that’s always been a problem.

Paul Mara is a reasonably priced physical defenseman. He’s a good pick-up. Josh Gorges a throw-in from the Craig Rivet deal has developed into a good physical cost-effective defenseman. He probably gives Montreal the best value per dollar spent on the roster. Ryan O’Byrne had a miserable year trying to make the club last year. He’s a good skater, young and physical. Montreal has to hope the experience of last year will pay off.

The defense is deeper then last year and with the three 35-plus players on it, it will have to be. Guys are going to get injured. Still, this stop-gap defense will be better then last year's and hopefully youngsters will begin feeding into the big club over the next couple of years. I still think the Habs need more of an offensive specialist on the power play. Marc Andre Bergeron is still out there looking for work.

The offense that carried them in 2007-08 abandoned them last year. In the end only Kovalev seemed to show any inclination or ability to score. Other teams figured it out pretty quickly and they were all over him. I expect the talented Kovalev to have a very good year in Ottawa where they’ll probably be running two veteran scoring lines. Saku Koivu was allowed to go off and sign with Anaheim. The Habs traded defensive prospect Ryan McDonagh and Chris Higgins to the Rangers and took on Scott Gomez’ milestone of a contract which still has five years to run at over $7 million dollars a season.

He’s the most expensive second-line center in hockey. That said the playmaker should mesh nicely with the two speedster/snipers the habs signed: Cammalleri and Gionta. If Plekanec and Kostitsyn can recapture some of the offense they showed in 2007-08, Montreal could be scoring more then the not inconsiderable 249 they managed last year. Checking from veterans Travis Moen, Glen Metropolit, and Lapierre may prove to be more physical then last years and again might help the defense and goaltending out.

Montreal’s season is dependant on Price being able to handle the goaltending load. I’ve yet to see evidence that he can do that. I think the offense and defense will get sorted out and be marginally better then last year but if the goaltending fails it has and will demoralize the rest of the team. I think the Habs will slip a little back in the East into 11th place and get passed by Buffalo and Ottawa in the Northeast. They don’t really have the cap room to add an impact player unless they can dump one of the big contracts, like Hamrlik's.

Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo missed the playoffs last year by two points in the East and then spent their offseason doing nothing. They’re the only Northeast division team with even a modicum of cap room left and it has to be worrying that they’ve done nothing with it. They are however able to make a move during the season if they are so inclined.

The Sabres have a top ten goalie in Ryan Miller leading them. Unfortunately when he got hurt in the stretch run Buffalo put in Patrick Lalime and he was useless. The first offseason move they should have made was to pick up a real backup goalie. Instead they’re going to run with Lalime again and perhaps Jonas Enroth from the farm. They must know that Ryan Miller won’t get injured this year. It’s unfortunate because a Josh Harding or Manny Fernandez probably could have helped this team out immeasurably and certainly have provided insurance in nets.

Craig Rivet is an aging, hard edged defenseman. Having him and Tallinder in the lineup leaves them more open to injury then some teams. Ex-Flames Montador and Lydman give them a couple of competent journeymen. Youngster Tyler Myers should get a chance to show whether he’s going to be a big gangly Larry Robinson kind of defenseman or more of a Moe Robinson. Either way Buffalo needs a youngster to play some defensive minutes. The loss of Spacek leaves them looking for an offensive defenseman. Marc Andre Bergeron would be a cheap option.

The offense managed 250 goals last year. The first line of Roy, Pominville, and Vanek is proven and comfortable with each other. Connolly needs to stay healthy and together with Stafford, Macarthur, and/or Paille provide some secondary offense. A Jochen Hecht who managed twenty goals and fifty points would be a bonus for Buffalo. They let Afinogenov leave with few regrets. Maybe he’ll restart his career in Atlanta with Kovalchuk and Antropov but he’d certainly played out the string in Buffalo. He’d devolved into more of a Sergei Samsonov after looking like a Mogilny at the start of his career.

The Buffalo Sabres did little to fill the gaps they had or replace the free agents they lost. Even the most basic expedient of picking up an experienced backup goalie to avoid the problem that kept them out of the playoffs last year was not tried. They have a little money to spend and I think they may still address some needs before the trade deadline. The fact that their lineup has been maintained from last year will I believe allow Buffalo to sneak in to the playoffs in the East. They’ll be the best of those bad teams that will go nowhere in the playoffs. I see Buffalo finishing sixth in the East and second in the Northeast.

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa made the transition from perennial playoff performers to also-rans in the blink of an eye. They finished 11th last year ten points out of the playoffs. It was looking like it was going to be a long climb out back to respectability.

At the trade deadline last year Ottawa moved speedy checker Antoine Vermette to Columbus for their old starting goalie Pascal Leclaire. Leclaire was coming off an ankle injury last year but looks to be healthy at the start of this season. The year before in Columbus it was Leclaire who lead the league in shut-outs with nine. Ottawa (28.5) and Columbus (27.8) both gave up low numbers of shots per game last year. I can certainly believe Leclaire, if healthy, could reproduce the numbers he managed in Columbus. Combined with youngster Brian Elliot he could perhaps produce some of the best goaltending this iteration of the Ottawa Senators has ever seen.

The Ottawa defense was relatively steady last year while giving up the sixth fewest shots on goal in the league. Jason Smith has retired from this group and Brian Lee and Chris Schubert have both been demoted to the AHL. Chris Phillips a nasty shut-down defenseman leads the way for Ottawa along with Russian shot blocker Anton Volchenkov. Filip Kuba and Chris Campoli played the point on last years power play and are back again.

Last years first round pick Eric Karlsson has made the team out of training camp and will get a shot on the power play. Career AHLer Matt Carkner is going to get a chance on the blueline in Ottawa. He’ll bring some veteran professional defense to Ottawa and should help Phillips and Volchenkov bring a physical game to Ottawa’s opponents. Alex Picard will round out the defense.

Offense has been the strength of this team historically. Last year the offense was in the dumper. Then a disgruntled Heatley demanded and refused a trade in the off-season. Ottawa finally managed to deal the reluctant sniper to San Jose for speedy forward Milan Michalek, waning sniper Jonathon Cheechoo, and a second round pick. Anticipating the departure of Heatley Ottawa signed manic-depressive talent Alexei Kovalev. If Cheechoo and Michalek pan out Ottawa for the first time in years will have six offensively talented forwards in their lineup.

Spezza, Alfredsson, Kovalev, Fisher, Michalek and Cheechoo could revitalize an Ottawa offense that scored a fourth-worst in the conference 217 goals last year. I think Cheechoo is on his way out of the league. His progression from 56 to 37 to 23 to 12 goals in a season doesn’t bode well for the coming year. Michalek and Fisher are good medium talented forwards who hopefully will supply 20-25 goals and 50-60 points each. Spezza and Alfredsson should do well as always.

I’m anticipating that Kovalev, playing on the second line for the first time in years, will do very well in a situation where he isn’t the focus of the opposition defense. Their checking with Jarkko Ruutu, Neil, and Kelly should certainly have an edge.

Ottawa is another of these Northeast teams that’s spent all the money they have. They’re also committed to spending $47 million “next” year (2010-11) on fourteen roster spots. It may get worse before it gets better. Still, I see Ottawa getting good goaltending out of Leclaire and better scoring from a lineup that’s dropped one of the best snipers in the game. I see Ottawa sneaking into the playoffs in seventh behind Buffalo and just ahead of Montreal.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto managed to be just good enough last year, 24th in the league, to finish out of the John Tavares sweepstakes. That was not optimal positioning. Nazim Kadri was their booby prize and he looks to be a pretty decent player in Toronto in a couple years.

The Leafs dealt for Vesa Toskala from San Jose to solve their goaltending worries. So far he’s failed and he’ll be on a short leash in Toronto this year. If he falters, expect new flavour of the month Jonas Gustavsson to get a chance at starting in the NHL. Personally I’m worried when any NHL player starts his season by having a heart procedure done before training camp.

Toronto has acted to solidify their defense. Power play quarterback Pavel Kubina moving to Atlanta opened up some cap room. Toronto picked up the best offensive defenseman available in Francois Beauchemin and the hardest hitter available in Mike Komisarek. Beachemin also brings a physical element to any team he joins.

They have the offensively skilled and reasonably priced Tomas Kaberle still under contract. Steady defender Jeff Finger is still playing responsible minutes. Sophomore Luke Schenn may see some of his responsibilities reduced as his supporting cast has improved.

Ian White is a young, very inexpensive puck mover who should also get plenty of chances to prove he can help the Leafs. Garnet Exelby provides more feisty minutes from the back-end. The defense should improve considerably from the outfit that gave up a middle-of-the-road 30.3 shots per game last year.

The offense is the team's weakness and the lack of a real first string center will kill their offense in the end. Matt Stajan is a converted checker and Toronto’s first line center. Blake, Stempniak, Grabovski, Hagman, and Ponikarovsky are reasonably talented offensive players. Phil Kessel is a great pick-up. He's a young sniper with a world of potential. He’ll miss the start of the season though he’s expected back in November. Toronto will struggle to score all year, especially while Kessel is out. I look for them to score fewer then last year.

Toronto has made some strides forward personnel-wise. They still have some big gaps to fill, at center and probably in nets. I expect an improved defense and goaltending next year but I think this line-up will be hard pressed to equal last years 250 goals. I see Toronto finishing last in the Northeast and fourteenth in the east. They’ve currently spent all their money. I think next year they’ll have $36 million dedicated to ten roster spots so they’ll be able to address their needs in nets and on the front end. I wonder if Burke will try to make a deal for Giguere from Anaheim.

2009-10 NE Prediction 2008-09 NE Final Standings

1/Boston(2) 110 1/Boston(1) 116

2/Buffalo(6) 93 2/Montreal(8) 93

3/Ottawa (7) 92 3/Buffalo (10) 91

4/Montreal(11) 85 4/Ottawa(11) 83

5/Toronto (14) 70 5/Toronto(12) 81

NHL Atlantic Division: 2009/10 Review and Preview

Scott Weldon — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 06:25:40 -0400

Atlantic Division

The Atlantic produced the Stanley Cup champion and four Eastern Conference playoff teams, yet only managed to have the third-best winning percentage in the league at .561.

The New York Islanders are apparently really that bad. Here’s a look at the teams from the Atlantic in the order they finished last year.

New Jersey Devils

New Jersey won the hard-fought division by seven points. They then lost a first-round, seven-game series to the Carolina Hurricanes. The year before, they looked ordinary in losing to the Rangers in the first round.

Former Devil coach Jacques Lemaire has been brought back to try to recapture some magic from 1995.

Brodeur has looked beatable and old in his last two playoff series. Last year, he had most of the season off due to injury and still, the 37-year-old goalie looked creaky and slow in the playoffs.

Scott Clemmenson did an able job filling in for Brodeur, playing almost half the team's minutes with a .917 save percentage and 2.39 GAA.

Brodeur played about 37 percent of his team's minutes with a .916 save percentage and 2.42 GAA. His five shutouts in 31 games were very impressive.

It was comparable to Steve Mason’s league-leading total. Clemmenson was snatched up by Florida to back up Vokoun.

The Devils picked up Yann Danis from the Islanders for the NHL minimum to support Brodeur.

The Devils are famed for playing tight, defensive hockey. Last year, they gave up a middle of the pack 29.5 shots per game (13th out of 30).

The goals against was still fourth-best in the league at 2.52. Even a slight decline in the goaltending has to be expected to drop the Devils closer to the middle of the league in goals against.

Other organizations over the years have been poaching New Jersey Devil defensemen. They last won a cup in 2002-'03 beating, the Ducks in seven. Scott Stevens, Ken Danyeko, and Tommy Albelin have since retired.

Brain Rafalski was picked up by the Red Wings. Scott Niedermeyer moved on to Anaheim.

Colin White is the only defenseman left from that Stanley Cup-winning team. The New Glasgow, Nova Scotia player still provides a nasty, physical element on this team.

Paul Martin brings an adequate puck-moving element to the defense. He quarterbacks the power play and provides half a point a game.

Twenty-eight-year-old Swede Johnny Oduya was a sought-after RFA defender. He’s also a strong skater, providing some offensive minutes from the back end. T

hey experimented with Ansii Salmela from the Swedish elite league last year as a possible power play quarterback. He didn’t work out and was moved on to Atlanta.

Niclas Havelid moved back to Sweden. Bryce Salvador and Andy Greene are the veterans likely to fill out the defense.

This team needs a first rate power play quarterback to boost the offense. Matt Corrente may get a chance on the point. The strong skater is tough as nails and has a hard if erratic shot.

Mike Mottau has played 76 and 80 games in his two years with the Devils, he was +24 last year, and is looking good again this preseason.

Bobby Holik retired and John Madden moved on to Chicago, spelling an end to the team’s veteran checkers.

Zach Parise is the best American scorer in the league and easily a top 10 NHL forward.

Old power forward Brian Rolston is going to need to score 30 to try to justify his $5 million salary. Rolston played hurt most of last year and missed a fifth of his team's games.

Brian Gionta signed with the Montreal Canadiens.

Patrick Elias is out for three to six weeks after undergoing groin muscle surgery.

Travis Zajac and 34-year-old Jamie Langenbrunner will be trying to provide the offense until Elias gets back. Shanahan has been brought back for another run.

This aging lineup also has Jay Pandolfo in it and injuries will abound.

The reasonably sized, moderately talented Danius Zubrus still provides a minimal offensive contribution for his $3.4 million a year. Any other offense they may get could come from Nicklas Bergfors. New Jersey’s goals for will probably decrease this year.

The team is awfully old and I’m expecting a lot of injuries. I believe Brodeur has reached an age where he will stop carrying this franchise.

I think they’ll slip out of the playoffs and back into mediocrity. I see them falling behind Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the Rangers in what might be the toughest division in hockey this year. I look for them to finish ninth in the conference.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh finished fourth in the East last year and went on to win the Stanley Cup. Their playoff run took them through Philadelphia in six, Washington in seven, Carolina in four, and Detroit in seven. There were no gimmees on that list.

Marc-Andre Fleury had a regular and postseason worthy of a first overall draft pick. My contention has always been he was too high-strung to win the big prize. Sigh, wrong again.

He played the eighth most minutes in the league and had pretty good middle of the pack numbers during the regular season (.912 save pct, 2.67 GAA, 4 SO). He had a great playoff season.

Pittsburgh lost last year's backup, Mathieu Garon, to Columbus. Brent Johnson was signed from Washington for a couple years to be the backup goalie.

Their Stanley Cup-winning defense was raided by teams looking for Stanley Cup winners.

Rob Scuderi was picked up by the LA Kings. Leviathan-like Hal Gill was poached by the Montreal Canadiens. Phillippe Boucher retired.

Brooks Orpik is locked up for years and is a quality, physical, shutdown defenseman. He draws the occasional bone head penalty, but that comes with the territory.

Sergei Gonchar added a gutsy one-legged Stanley Cup performance to his resume. He’s already the definitive offensive defenseman.

If Gonchar gets hurt this year, it became apparent that Kris Letang can fill ably as a quarterback on the power play. He’s got a big shot and his confidence moving the puck last year seemed to triple with all his ice time.

Alex Goligoski has some offensive skills and had a tryout last year. He didn’t quite pan out, but he’s another year older and about to get another chance.

Mark Eaton is a nice, steady, professional defenseman with no offensive capability. He’s starting to creep a little up the depth chart, which is trouble for Pittsburgh defensively.

They signed Jay McKee to round out their depth chart and replace some of the physicality they lost when Gill left. McKee is probably a bit of an upgrade from Gill, but he’s reminiscent of Kyle Maclaren and Rhett Warriner.

Those two are physical defensemen who’ve worn down to the point that when they play hard, they get hurt. Jay McKee is just about there and when he goes down, the unproven Goligoski is suddenly their fifth defensemen.

Crosby and Malkin are two of the best forwards in the game.

Jordan Staal, Matt Cooke and Maxime Talbot were a great checking line with offensive skill.

After them, it’s aged sniper Bill Guerin and power forward Chris Kunitz.

Pascal Dupuis, last year's free agent signing is still around to play on a checking or fourth line.

Fedotenko, Craig Adams and, Tyler Kennedy round out the offense. Eric Goddard is perhaps the worst goon in hockey.

I’m predicting Pittsburgh will come into the new season imbued with confidence. They've started slow the last couple years, but I’m thinking they take off from the beginning

and win the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference from the start this year.

I don’t believe they can repeat, but hey, hardly anyone does.

Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia had a good year, finishing fifth in the East and third in the Atlantic. They lost home ice advantage to Pittsburgh in the last week of the season and then lost in the playoffs in six games in a toucg series with the Penguins.

The goaltending was seen as a major problem and Martin Biron and Anterro Niitimaki were sent on their way. Replacing them were the volatile Ray Emery, returning chastened from the KHL, and Brian Boucher, the almost starter who has never quite made it.

Philly can do well in the regular season without a real goalie, but before the playoffs start, they’ll have had to make a move for one. Historically, Pittsburgh hasn’t managed to have a first quality starting goalie since Pelle Lindbergh.

The defense has seemed too thin and susceptible to injury, so Philadelphia paid a steep price sending Joffrey Lupul, Luke Sbisa, and two first-round picks to Anaheim for Chris Pronger.

Pronger is still the archetypical shutdown defenseman and he gives you half a point a game to boot. He will play 23-27 minutes a game and he’ll make everyone else in the depth chart look better. At 35, his skills are waning and Philadelphia will want to win a Cup in a hurry if this deal is to make any sense.

Kimmo Timmonen has been the No. 1 defenseman in Philly since he came over from Nashville. He gives you 25 minutes a night, flawless play, and half a point a game as well.

Braydon Coburn has been a steady defensive presence.

Matt Carle was picked up last year and for his $3.5 million a year. He provides sketchy offensive play and is scary in his own zone.

Randy Jones, coming back from injury, has been waived. Philadelphia may be trying to get a handle on cap problems at the beginning of the season rather then have them bite them at the end. Jones has been a key defenseman for Philly for years now.

Ole-Kristian Tollefson has been brought in to provide a cost effective, physical element.

The Flyers don’t want Pronger injuring his hands in fights. Ryan Parent or Danny Syvret may be asked to be the sixth defenseman on this team.

The Flyers have offensive depth that most teams only dream of.

Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Daniel Briere, and Scott Hartnell provide veteran scoring.

Mike Knuble and Joffrey Lupul have taken their 52 goals and left. Philadelphia is hoping that a healthy Daniel Briere and youngsters Claude Giroux and James VanRiemsdyk more than make up for it.

Laperierre and Carcillo have also been added to insure no talented player has to fight all season long.

I expect Philadelphia to finish second in the Atlantic and fourth in the East. They’ll do better once they sign a real goalie.

New York Rangers

New York finished fourth in the Atlantic and seventh in the East last season. Despite their horrible offense, they almost eked out a first-round victory over the ballyhooed Washington Capitals. Washington won the last two games to take the seven-game series.

The Rangers' strength is goaltending. Henrik Lundquist played 84 percent of his team's minutes. He had near top 10 numbers in save percentage and goals against per game numbers. Steve Valiquete has been retained as the cost effective backup goalie.

The defense is now being led by sophomore shutdown defenseman Marc Staal.

Veterans Wade Redden and Michael Roszival provide competent if unspectacular defensive minutes. Roszival provides a bit more offense and Redden a bit more defense. While they’re both grossly overpaid, they’re good skaters and can move the puck.

Dan Girardi is another youngster with good offensive skills who’s playing a bigger role on New York’s defense.

The rest of the defense will be youngsters Michael Del Zotto, Michael Sauer, or Matthew Gilroy. Some of these youngsters won’t work out, but they can pick the best and run with them. I’m expecting a better defense this year in New York.

The biggest problems New York had last year were no cap room combined with a miserable offense.

They managed to unload Scott Gomez’s $7 million contract for Chris Higgins and Ryan McDonouagh.

They convinced Markus Naslund to retire before he turned 36, saving them another $4 million cap hit.

Glen Sather then rushed out and signed premier talent Marion Gaborik away from Minnesota. Gaborik could score 50 in this league. The downside is that he’s always injured and they signed him for five years. I expect him to play most of this year and revitalize the Ranger attack.

They’ve also picked up Kotalik. He’s got some skills and a big shot and can play the point on the power play

Vaclav Prospal has been scooped cheaply from Tampa Bay. He may provide some offense.

Chris Higgins is a season away from 52 points. He’s quick and skilled and can make a contribution.

Chris Drury is overpaid as a second line center, but he’s talented and good on the faceoff.

Brandon Dubinsky was signed and may play with Gaborik. If he does, take him in your hockey pool.

Callahan and Anisimov provide the Rangers with more young potential.

Donald Brashear was brought in to be the goon. Unfortunately, he can’t skate anymore.

Avery is starting the season on a bad knee. This appears to be the only place on earth that he can make a contribution. He needs to keep this job.

I like the Rangers' lineup. They’ve improved and even created a little (very little) cap room. I see them finishing third in the Atlantic and fifth in the East. This team could do something in the playoffs with a healthy Lundquist and Gaborik.

New York Islanders

The Islanders were the worst team in hockey last year. Charles Wang has expressed how sorry he is he ever bought an NHL franchise. He needs to take a marketing course. They’re now playing in what could be the toughest division in hockey. That won’t help them excel.

The Islanders were building their organization around the man Michael Farber of Sports Illustrated has dubbed the Idi Amin of hockey.

Yes, Rick DiPietro is goaltender for life. Injuries had him playing only five games last year. He’s apparently still not ready to start the season.

The Islanders, with so many organizational holes, spent their free agency money on two proven NHL starters: the 40-year-old Dwayne Roloson and Philly’s Martin Biron. Hey, they let their goalies from last year, Yann Danis and Joey Macdonald, leave. They also drafted two goalies this year.

The Islanders are still paying Alexei Yashin $3.25 million this year and $4.75 million next year.

If they suddenly decide to buy out DiPietro, they’d be paying almost $7 million a year for players they no longer have next year. I’m still trying to figure out why they got rid of Luongo.

The defense isn’t the cheapest in the league. Mark Streit provides good offensive minutes and has improved in his own zone. After him it’s Witt, Sutton, Martinek, Gervais, Jack Hillen III, and Frederick Meyer IV.

The offense is comprised of all youngsters. Doug Weight, Trent Hunter, and Jon Sim are the veteran element.

Their best young talent, Kyle Okposo, is suffering from a concussion he got in an exhibition game. Youngsters John Tavares, Blake Comeau, Josh Bailey, and Jeff Tambellini will all get a chance to prove themselves.

Picking up Robbie Schremp from Edmonton is a heck of a move. They might have picked up a player for nothing and he’ll finally get a chance to try to prove himself.

I’d expect to see improvement from this talented bunch, but a real veteran, offensive talent for them to play with and learn from would have been useful.

Picking the New York Islanders to once again be the worst team in the league is the safest bet in hockey. Another year of drafting will hopefully move them out of the basement.

2008-09 Final Standings 2009-10 Prediction

1/New Jersey Devils (3) 106 1/Pittsburgh Penguins(1) 118

2/Pittsburgh Penguins (4) 99 2/Philadelphia Flyers (4) 101

3/Philadelphia Flyers (5) 99 3/New York Rangers (5) 99

4/New York Rangers (7) 95 4/New Jersey Devils (9) 89

5/New York Islanders (15) 61 5/New York Islanders (15) 62

NHL Pacific Division 2009-10: Review and Preview

Scott Weldon — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 07:22:14 -0400

Pacific Division

The third weakest division in hockey last year was the Pacific Division. The .548 winning percentage was brought about by a decline from Dallas and no compensating improvement from LA or Phoenix.

Here’s my look at how these teams finished last year ,what changes they made and how they should do in the coming regular season.

I’m looking at the teams in the order they finished last year.

San Jose Sharks

San Jose won the Presidents trophy for finishing first in the entire league for the regular season.

This was no guarantee of playoff success, as the Sharks lost to a first-round opponent, the eighth-place Anaheim Ducks, who just looked better than them in every aspect of the game.

GM Doug Wilson promised sweeping change in the new year. It was a long time coming, but change has certainly come. Todd McLellan, brought in last year to replace Ron Wilson, will get another chance to make those changes work.

Goaltending has been handled by the steady Evgeny Nabokov. One of the NHL’s work horse goalies he plays over 73 percent of his team’s minutes. His .910 save percentage is pretty ordinary among goalies who play at least a third of their teams minutes (25th out of 43).

San Jose gave up the fewest shots in the league last year. You’d expect the team goals against average to be near the top of the league and they were third overall.

Last year's back up, Brian Boucher, has moved on to Philadelphia. They still haven’t settled on a back-up in San Jose.

The fear has to be that Nabokov, who looked ordinary against Anaheim in the playoffs, might be a medium-skilled goalie as opposed to the elite one he is touted to be. Thomas Greiss from the AHL might play behind Nabokov to help the cap-strapped Sharks.

The defense was the strength on this team last year. Dan Boyle has been one of the best Canadian-born offensive defenseman in the league for the last five years. He’s a skilled puck mover and power play quarterback.

Marc Edourd-Vlasic has become the center of this defense. He’s a great skater who doesn’t make mistakes. Huskins missed most of last year with foot problems. The former Duck should be able to give them a solid twenty minutes a night this year.

Douglas Murray hits like a tank and had a great year for San Jose in 2008-09. He gives them a nasty physical edge.

Rob Blake is being called upon to play big minutes for San Jose next year. At age 40 he’s coming off a big offensive year for the Sharks.

If he sits back playing the point on the power play, he and his big shot can make a valuable contribution. If he takes a full turn on defense, you’re asking for disaster. That’s if he stays healthy.

His last year in LA he was disinterested and dangerous in his own zone. He seems to have gotten his motivation back in San Jose but at this age his game could go south at any moment.

Journeyman Brad Lukowich and German Christian Ehrhoff were dumped to Vancouver for questionable prospects. This was widely seen as salary dump by a team that’s been paying players like they were a Stanley cup champion for years now.

To paraphrase Captain Renault from Casablanca, you probably shouldn’t give away NHL quality defensemen, someday they may be scarce.

The San Jose organization that gave up premier prospect defenseman Ty Wishart in the Dan Boyle deal will be looking for a minor leaguer to fill the sixth defense slot on their roster.

After years of tossing prospects out the window, the cupboard may be getting bare in San Jose.

Offensively, San Jose has needed a first-rate sniper to pair with Thornton since they got him from Boston. Jonathon Cheechoo was thought to be that man but the mucking sniper has gone from 56 to 37 to 23 to 12 goals in a season.

He’s on the verge of playing himself out of hockey and resembles a Warren Young more then a Bobby Hull.

San Jose traded Cheechoo; speedy Milan Michalek, a second line offensive player; and a second-round pick for sniper Dany Heatley and a fourth-round pick. Heatley and Thornton will thrive together.

Look for Heatley to approach 50 goals and Thornton to be near 110 points. Their linemate, the creative Devin Setoguchi, will also benefit from this best possible use of perhaps the best play-maker in hockey.

San Jose’s secondary scoring has been gutted. Speedy Patrick Marleau and his 38 goals were retained but after him Clowe and Pavelski there’s no one on the team with any offensive history.

Little Scottie Nichol has been brought in to be a checker. Torrey Mitchell is a streak on the ice and may add some offense.

I think San Jose will come to resemble some other top-heavy teams from the past like Ottawa and Tampa Bay who have four or five top-end players and not much else.

I expect San Jose to slip down the depth chart to sixth or seventh in the west and be that first round opponent no one wants to play. San Jose despite their salary dumps are still going to be hard-pressed to stay under the salary cap all year long.

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim finished eighth in the West, barely making the playoffs. They then handled the President’s trophy winning Sharks in six games.

They took everyone’s Stanley cup favourites the Detroit Red Wings through a grueling seven game series. Getzlaf almost willed his team past Detroit in that series.

After their cup win in 2006-07, the Ducks suffered through some of the problems many champions face. Their salary structure got bloated while players seemed more complacent.

Yet last year and this off-season, they’ve shed salary and added youth changing their dynamic from an aging veteran team in decline to that of a young talented team with maneuvering room under the cap. The instant retool has been almost magical to watch.

Goaltending is one of the Ducks strengths. They have former Conn Smythe trophy winner and Stanley Cup winning goalie JS Giguere under contract for $6 million a year.

They have their current starter Jonas Hiller making $1.3 million a year. They have former leaf prospect Justin Pogge waiting in the minors. Mattias Modig from Sweden may be brought over for organizational depth if the Ducks manage to move one of their goalies (Giguere?) for a player or two.

Most of the teams out there that need a starter would also have to dump salary to pick up the pricey Gigeure. Anaheim also has to be sure Hiller can do the job long time before losing the successful veteran Gigeure. His six million in salary could be used elsewhere if Hiller can handle the job.

One of the biggest off-season moves in the league was the trade of preeminent shut-down defenseman Chris Pronger.

At 35, Pronger is on the downside of his career and he’ll probably finish his time with Philadelphia. He’s a big physical hard skating defenseman who can make a great pass out of his zone and still gives his team more then a half a point a game.

Pronger has been widely regarded as a key component in Edmonton’s run to the Stanley cup finals in 2005-06 and the Ducks win in 2006-07.

Anaheim dumped the veteran’s $6 million salary and picked up Philadelphia defense prospect Luke Sbisa, two first-round picks and former Duck Joffrey Lupul, who should provide offensive depth.

The physical Pronger will be more and more susceptible to injury as time goes on. The Ducks have retained a veteran power play quarterback to lead the defense and the team.

The aging Niedermeyer has shown himself to be more vulnerable (-14) in his own zone last year. He still provides almost 60 points a season from the back end.

The third of Anaheim’s big three defensemen Francois Beauchemin was signed away by the Toronto Maple Leafs. He leaves with his big point shot, smooth skating, and physical presence and will be missed.

Anaheim added young depth last year plucking James Wiesnewski from Chicago and Ryan Whitney from Pittsburgh. Whitney was seen as a Pronger clone and it’s always been shocking to me that Pittsburgh let him go.

He did suffer a nasty foot injury and there might be some fear he won’t recover from it. Veteran bangers Nick Boynton and Steve Eminger have been brought out to fill in the depth chart, but more defensemen will be playing a lot more minutes what Beauchemin and Pronger leaving and Niedermeyer aging.

Young puck mover Brendan Mikkelson will probably get another shot at filling a defensive slot for the Ducks.

The offense is lead by a core of youngsters, power play maker Ryan Getzlaf (25), crafty nasty Corey Perry(25), and budding power forward Bobby Ryan(23).

Veteran Finns Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne will play with the offensively skilled Joffrey Lupul to provide second line offense. This team will challenge for the league lead in goals scored.

Their veteran Stanley cup winning checkers Travis Moen and Sami Pahlsson have moved on. Rob Niedermeyer and his -19 have signed with New Jersey. Veteran Todd Marchant is in place to lead and train a new checking line.

Anaheim is a better deeper team then San Jose, and I think they’ll pass them and win the Pacific division this year, finishing second in the west.

This Anaheim team still has what it takes to challenge for a cup. That’s a nice turnaround in a year and a half.

Dallas Stars

Dallas has been a tricky team for me to figure out. Two years ago I saw them as aging veterans on the way down. They made a playoff run to the western final.

Last year I saw them as a strong team competing for first in the Pacific. They suffered through the Avery debacle, rampant injuries to their veteran core, a goaltending collapse by Marty Turco and finished 12th in the west.

This year, I’m hedging my bet and calling for them to be mediocre.

Turco played the second most minutes in the league last year behind Kiprusoff. His 33 wins left him tied for ninth. His .898 save percentage was fifth worst in the league among goalies who played at least a third of their team's minutes.

He was better than only Andrew Raycroft, Vesa Toskala, Chris Osgood and Jonas Hedberg. Dallas has to hope part of his problem was the workload.

The Stars brought in veteran Alex Auld to do some of the heavy lifting. Perhaps if Turco only plays three quarters of his team’s games he’ll improve. If not, what was seen as a key Dallas strength will have to be addressed.

The Stars will need to seek out a veteran to play now and draft some youngsters to secure the future. Perennially disappointing former first-round pick Brent Krahn is not the answer in nets.

Dallas iced one of the cheapest defenses in hockey last year. They gave up only 28.1 shots per game. They were tied with LA for giving up the fourth fewest shots on goals in the league.

Normally, this insulates a goalie and inflates his statistics. Yet Dallas gave up 3.06 goals per game, which was sixth worst in the league.

They lost their veteran power play quarterback Sergei Zubov to the KHL. They added veteran shot-blocker Karlis Skrastins and the young physical Woywitka from St Louis.

Niskanen and Grossman provide an offensive element but a legitimate power play quarterback is essential for this team.

Marc Andre Bergeron would probably be an excellent cost-effective fit for them. Trevor Daley and Stephane Robidas fill out the most cost effective defense in hockey. It won’t be the worst.

Injury cut up the lineup last year. They need a full healthy year out of captain Brendan Morrow. He’s fighting to make the Canadian team for the Olympics in Vancouver so I expect a quick start from him.

Ribeiro, Loui Ericksson, Brad Richards, Jere Lehtinen, Modano and Fabian Brunstrom should produce enough offense. Steve Begin, Mark Parrish and Brendan Morrison won’t be missed.

Steve Ott gives them that Avery criminal edge without the full blown narcissistic personality disorder that seemed to be Sean’s downfall.

James Neal had a nice year in Dallas playing in 77 games as a rookie and scoring 24 goals.

If the team stays healthy he’ll move down the depth chart, but he looks like he could be a decent-sized checker who has some offensive ability. It’s always a plus if your checkers can score.

This is a team with plenty of cap room and some obvious gaps. Ownership, however doesn’t seem willing to spend any of the 7-8 million they’ve got left. They’re still carrying almost a 2 million a year cap hit for Avery. Thanks, Brett.

I believe the offense will improve just by having a few healthier players this year. The defense I can’t believe will duplicate last year’s performance, but they’ll still be good. The goaltending has to improve from last year’s dismal performance.

Playing Alex Auld all season would be an improvement from last year. I see them marginally better then last year finishing 11th.

They may be passed in the Pacific by LA. This team needs to retool like Anaheim did. Can Joe Nieuwendyk manage that? Does he have any authority to try to do it?

Phoenix Coyotes

Phoenix made a desperate effort to make the playoffs last year. They lacked the conviction to give their changes a year or two to work and gave up on their experiment at the trade deadline.

Running a sports organization from panic almost never works. They finished 13th in the west last year nosing out LA.

Ilya Bryzgalof came over from Anaheim as a saviour with a .920 save percentage in 2007-08. Last year that number sank to a less then average .906.

Bryzgalof was one of the work horses in the league. He played the sixth most minutes in the NHL and Phoenix gave up the eighth most shots in the league at 28.8. That’s a heck of a dual burden for anyone to carry.

Veteran Jason Labarbara has been brought in to carry the load with Bryzgalof. Former sixth overall pick goalie Al Montoya is also in the mix.

He’s had four seasons in the AHL and five NHL games. At age 24, he’s still pretty young and could help out in a back up capacity this year.

Phoenix traded two defensemen off a weak defensive team to pick up Olli Jokinen. The loss of young puck-mover Keith Ballard and aging hitter Boynton showed and Phoenix gave up the aforementioned 28.8 shots per game.

Old Ed Jovanovski is being asked to play too many minutes and too many games at his age. They were lucky to get 80 games out of him last year. He’s a steady veteran who can hit and has a shot but he’s not young.

Phoenix retained Keith Yandle who is a reasonable NHL defenseman who showed some offense in the Q. Zbynek Michalek and Kurt Sauer were also retained. Yikes.

Phoenix also seems to have acquired all of Calgary’s reject defensemen. Adrian Aucoin had a good year under Keenan but he’s at the end and can be scary if given too many minutes to play.

Jim Vandermeer was too slow to play defense in Calgary. He’ll fight. David Hale is a slug of a defenseman and he was packaged with checker Fedoruk to Tampa Bay for Radim Vrbata.

This defense is worse then last years and more susceptible to injury then ever. If Jim Vandermeer plays on the back end you know they’re in trouble. Their $14 million defense will be worse then Dallas’s.

They have to pray they can bring up a quality minute eater on defense from the minors. New draftee Oliver Ekman-Larssen may get a chance to play defense for Phoenix this year.

Jokinen and Morris were dumped at the trade deadline and freed up $10 million in cap space. This young line-up still could have used Jokinen’s veteran presence.

Doan is the remaining veteran in Phoenix. His 70-80 points are critical.

Radim Vrbata was a former eighth-round pick by the Colorado Avalanche. After banging around the league he had a breakout year with Phoenix in 2007-08 with 27 goals and 29 assists.

Phoenix has to be hoping the 28-year-old can reproduce that effort. Most of Phoenix’s high end young talent seemed to suffer from a sophomore jinx. Young, talented Peter Mueller will bounce back just by recovering his first line ice time.

A good number of the other youngsters have to be expected to improve. Martin Hanzal, Michael Boedker, Viktor Tikhonov and Kyle Turris all have to be expected to have better years.

Vernon Fiddler has been brought in to run the checking line. He’s a younger faster Steve Reinprecht but without the offensive upside.

The 28-year-old Mathew Lombardi is fast and is probably going to get his last chance to be an offensive NHL player here with Phoenix. Stone hands have held him back though he’s had some positive moments at the World hockey championships.

The Phoenix Coyotes have stacked draft picks and created almost 10 million dollars in cap room. Unfortunately the leaderless organization has just put coach Dave Tippet in place.

A caretaker owner will keep the Coyotes treading water in Glendale. Unfortunately Phoenix is already on the bottom of the pool.

Despite five of the best young talents in the game, including one of the best young Americans I’ve seen, I still see Phoenix finishing last in the Pacific, last in the west.

Los Angeles Kings

LA was last in the Pacific last year by a hair. They finished 14^th in the west, and were the fifth worst team in the league. They drafted center Brayden Schenn as a result.

LA has been searching for a dependable starting goalie since Kelly Hrudey? Rogatien Vachon? Terry Sawchuk? Most of their history seems to have been trying to make someone else’s goalie work in LA.

Vachon succeeded. Most of the others have failed. Jamie Quick appeared to win the goaltending contest in LA last year. His .914 save percentage places him in the middle (20th out of 43) of the other NHL goalies who play at least a third of their teams minutes.

His 2.48 GAA is 14th best in the league. The hope has to be that first round pick from 2006 and world junior hero Jonathon Bernier at age 21 has his feet under him and at 21 he’s ready to be a back-up in the NHL and perhaps play a third of LA’s games this year.

Quick is good but Bernier is the man who could be that great LA drafted and developed goalie they’ve been looking for these last 40 years. Bernier should be an improvement over the more experienced Ersberg in the back-up role.

The defense last year took a big step forward. They gave up the fourth fewest shots on goal in the league last year, tied with Dallas. They let power play quarterback Vishnovsky go last year to pick up young defensive defenseman Matt Greene and role player Jaret Stoll.

Their defense is lead by the highly touted Drew Doughty. As an 18 year old he lead his team in ice time and displayed some of the offensive skills that were anticipated. He also killed penalties and played near flawless defense.

He’s a James Norris trophy winner in the making. RFA Jack Johnson finally resigned with LA and brings reasonable size and a nasty attitude to the mix. He’s also a good young skater with reasonable offensive skills.

Throw in first-round pick Colton Teubert and this might be the top three defensemen in the league, soon. Thomas Hickey is another young puck mover.

Rob Scuderi was brought in to be that veteran defensive presence and to make sure youngster Matt Greene isn’t the only defenseman spending time in his own zone.

Creaky old Sean O’Donnel is the only remainder from the dump of Mike Cammalleri on Calgary. He’s been suspended for five games including the first two of the regular season. He can’t have many useful games left in him.

This depth on D allowed LA to trade young power play hero Kyle Quincey and depreciating offensive defenseman Tom Preissing for aging power forward Ryan Smyth. They traded from strength to address weakness and didn’t effect their core.

Ryan Smyth is only 33, but power forwards tend to age quickly. He never has seemed to regain what little speed he had since he played on a partially healed ankle in one world championship for Canada.

He’s tough and he’s always around the net and may complement LA’s tiny group of skilled forwards. After dumping Cammalleri and Vishnovsky for little offensive return LA had huge trouble scoring goals last year.

There 207 total was twelve worse then Minnesota. They were the third lowest scoring team in the league.

The Slovenian superstar Anze Kopitar has blossomed as the best offensive player on the team. He needs a better sniper to play with and maybe Ryan Smyth will be it. LA needs a point a game from Anze.

Alex Frolov was one of the good young talents LA had picked up. He showed constant improvement until 2006-07 and then he’s shown steady decline the last two years. The talented Frolov is 27 and needs to break out this year for himself and his team. A point a game should be possible.

LA moved Patrick O’Sullivan in a three way deal that netted them Carolina’s Justin Williams. Williams had two-point-a-game seasons in Carolina before injury sidetracked him last year. LA is hoping he approaches 30 goals this season.

Jaret Stoll is a faceoff specialist with a big shot who has worked the point on the power play. His offense has never recovered since he had concussion problems in Edmonton. He seems to be a half a point a game forward who can win face-offs.

Dustin Brown is a little more hard nosed and at 25 gives you three quarters of a point a game. He could have more in him. Micahel Handzus is an older half point a game center.

Twenty goals is the most you can expect from him. Any other offense in LA will have to come from some of their younger players perhaps Oscar Moller or Teddy Purcell. This team desperately needs more offense.

I’m expecting the goaltending to coalesce behind that rapidly improving LA defense. They have to score more then they did last year. I see LA passing Dallas and Phoenix and making up the 12 points that kept them from the playoffs.

I like LA to finish eighth and make the playoffs for the first time since 2001-02. They have some cap room lending them operational flexibility through the year. I also expect Jonathon Bernier to make his way back to the big club before the end of the year.

Last Years Finish 2009/10 Predicted Finish

1/San Jose (1) 117 1/ Anaheim (2) 108

2/Anaheim (8) 91 2/ San Jose (6) 98

3/Dallas (12) 83 3/ LA (8) 92

4/Phoenix (13) 79 4/ Dallas (11) 85

5/LA (14) 79 5/Phoenix (15) 65

Northwest Division 2009/10 : Review and Preview

Scott Weldon — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 06:47:01 -0400

The shortest offseason in pro-sports is over and here’s my look at how I think the Northwest division is going to fair this year. I’m looking at them in the order they finished last year.

Northwest Division

What was once considered one of the toughest divisions in hockey has devolved into one of the weakest. The divisional .538 winning percentage was better then that of the Southeast division by only the thinnest of margins. Teams in this division have rabid fan bases and organizations desperate to win.

This has lead to a tendency to over pay for players and has forced teams tight up against the cap. All the teams have shuffled the deck this year in an attempt to get better but I’m afraid with the exception of Colorado these teams have mostly just moved sideways.

Vancouver

Having won the division by two points last year over a Calgary team that iced

less then full rosters during the playoff push because of cap problems. They beat St Louis but then were handled by a younger, faster Chicago team that liked to spot them leads in the second round.

They got great goaltending out of Roberto Luongo, when he was healthy. They struggled mightily when he was hurt. His nine shut-outs, 2.34 GAA and .920 save percentage put him among the top five goalies in the league. Veteran Andrew Raycroft was signed cheap from Colorado to be the back up to Luongo. He looks to be this years Patrick Lalime.

If Luongo gets hurt Raycroft is not an adequate back-up. Youngster Cory Schneider should get a chance to make the big club and back up Roberto. If he can make the team it’ll afford an excellent opportunity to learn, though if Luongo plays 70 games his skills are likely to deteriorate from disuse.

Their old/experienced defense gave up 29.2 shots per game last year. That was the tenth fewest in the league. Mattias Ohlund moved to Tampa Bay in the offseason and his experience will be missed. Vancouver has 14 million dollars invested in Salo, Edler, Bieksa and Mitchell.

That’s a good solid core of defensemen but they still lack a top end offensive defenseman. Mathieu Schneider was brought in to be the power play quarterback. He did a good job in Montreal and at 40 he still looks like he can fill that specialist role. His five on five minutes need to be limited. San Jose dumped two NHL quality defensemen on Vancouver for prospects.

Lukowich is a good solid stay at home defenseman who had a nice bounce back year in San Jose after a career worst year in Tampa Bay (-15) while suffering with a groin pull. Christian Ehrhoff has been a useful offensive defenseman and could also help out the power play. At 27 he skates well and produces just over half a point a game. He had 25 power play points last year.

This leaves Vancouver with seven NHL ready defensemen on their roster plus Shane O’Brien.They could probably try to trade a defenseman (Salo?) for some secondary scoring.

The Sedin brothers after searching for greener pastures settled on Vancouver and $6.1 million a year each for five years. Mikael Samuelsson was signed from Detroit and probably will get a tryout on the first line.

This should be a stretch for him but he does have talent and other marginally talented forwards have done well when teamed with the Sedins. I’m thinking Mikael Samuellson will prove better then say, Anson Carter. Pavol Demitra will lead the second line but age and injuries are starting to take their toll. His offensive numbers are in decline and he’ll need someone better then Burrows and Bernier to play with.

The Sundin experiment is over but his point a game in the playoffs needs to be replaced. Kesler, Burrows and Johnson allow Vancouver to put together one of the best young checking lines in the league with a great counter attack capability. They hung on to Mason Raymond who was one of the few Canucks who could skate with Chicago in the playoffs.

Hopefully Shirokov and Cody Hodgson push the Berniers and the Wellwoods for roster spots and bring some secondary scoring into the lineup.

Vancouver is spent up against the cap and if they’re not careful they could end up with some Calgary-like problems at season end. I think this year Vancouver loses a tight battle for first with Calgary in the NW and just sneaks into the final playoff spot because of Luongo and their defensive depth. They’ll have trouble scoring in Vancouver this year.

Calgary

Calgary blew a substantial lead over Vancouver in the last month of the season. During the final week a series of injuries and overspending by the GM resulted in Calgary having to play with less then a full roster of players because of salary cap constraints. The Flames failure to finish first in the NW resulted in them meeting a Chicago Blackhawk team that completely outmatched them in the first round.

Winning the division would have left them playing and perhaps beating St Louis in the first round. Not winning their division had severe consequences for the Flames. Some organizations fire GM’s for such mistakes. A Sutter, in Calgary, is simply patted on the head and sent out to run the team for another year.

Kiprusoff has been the workhorse goalie in Calgary since their Stanley Cup loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2004. That year he played 38 games and had a .933 save percentage and 1.69 GAA in the regular season. The next year he played he got in 74 games and managed a .923 and 2.07.

Then it was 74 GP, .917 Sv pct and 2.46 GAA. The last two years he’s played 76 games and gotten save percentages .906 and .903 and goals against averages of 2.69 and 2.84. Miikka has moved from stellar to ordinary. Last year he lead the league in wins, games played and minutes played. Among goalies who played at least a third of their teams games he was 30^th out of 43 in goals against average and 32^nd out of 43 in save percentage.

Those are painfully mediocre numbers. Calgary gave up a middle of the road 29.8 shots per game last year. As a team they gave up an eight worst 3.00 goals per game. Calgary needs to allow fewer shots on net. Kiprusoff must play fewer games to see if he can return to the level of play he showed in the first three years in Calgary. Calgary’s first priority should have been getting a dependable back-up for Kipper.

Sutter apparently wants to take out his $5.8 million a season in value from Kiprusoff in blood. McElhinney the back-up they’ve shown no faith in, in the past, has been retained to back up Miikka. He needs to start (and finish) at least fifteen games for Calgary to give Kiprusoff a chance to regain his form and have him rested for the playoffs.

The Flames have just completed a two year enema on the defense flushing the more suspect members out of the system. Ericsson, Hale, Vandermeer, Warriner, Aucoin have all been moved on over the last two years. Alberta bred Jay Bouwmeester has been brought back to be the saviour on defense, despite the fact that he played 25 minutes a night on the worst defense in hockey in Florida.

The good news is he skates like the wind, has a big body and some offensive skills (half a point a game). The fifteen goals a game and ability to jump in to the play certainly make him a valuable asset. Ditto for now maligned Dion Phaneuf. Dion is a good skater, hits like a tank and has a shot like a laser. Keenan was calling on him to do everything.

The new Sutter (duane?) coach will get him to pull in his horns and play more responsibly. He’ll still get his points on the power play and will do better just by trying not to do so much. Regehr and Sarich aren’t the skaters that Phaneuf and Bouwmeester are but they can hit like trucks and Regehr is nasty to play against. Giordano was wooed back from Russia and is a smooth skating puck mover with some size and some skill.

He’s a huge upgrade from the Vandermeers and Warriners who couldn’t really play defense at the NHL level any more. The defense will be rounded out by Adam Pardy and Anton Stralman with perhaps youngsters Keith Aulie and John Negrin competing for and winning a spot. I look for the defense to be much better this year providing offense from the blueline.

The alpha and omega of Calgary offense is Jarome Iginla. Power forwards in the NHL have careers that are often cut short abruptly. Iginla may be on the downward curve of his career and he may never surpass last years 89 points. The Flames need to win a cup soon or Jarome never will. Jokinen and David Moss perhaps round out a first line. Langkow, Borque and perhaps rookie Mickael Backlund will be called on to provide offense from the second line.

There’s a raft of checkers to pick from and Nystrom and Sjostrom will probably excel on the penalty kill. Calgary is desperate for players who can score and don’t cost them any money. They have 31 million dollars out of their 56.8 million dollar cap spent on five players: Jarome Iginla, Miikka Kiprusoff, Olli Jokinen, Dion Phaneuf,

Jay Bouwmeester. They are hoping that Nigel Dawes or Frederick Sjostrom or Mickael Backlund or Theoren Fleury or Kris Chucko or Dustin Boyd can come in and score for less then a million dollars a year. Nigel or Backlund might just do it for them.

I expect the flames to be better defensively this year and while scoring less to get more offense from the defensemen. I see the flames sneaking past Vancouver this year and winning the Northwest. This team doesn’t seem ready to do much in the playoffs unless Kiprusoff can regain his 2003/04 form and I don’t see that happening.

Minnesota

This team has had success over the years playing a tight defensive system. This has gotten them into the playoffs where they’ve generally floundered. The year before last they lost to a bad Colorado team in the first round. Last year they didn’t even manage that. They finished behind the Ducks by two points.

Worse though was the fact that they were 12 and 10 points behind division leaders Vancouver and Calgary. They have ground to make up. Jacques Lemaire resigned after missing the playoffs and Doug Riseborough was replaced by Chuck Fletcher. He hired Todd Richards a former Penguins AHL coach and San Jose Shark assistant to be the second head coach in the teams history.

Goaltending in Minnesota has been an organizational strength. People tend to down play the goalies role with the Wild because they assume the system they play insulates the goalie and obviates the need for a first class tender. Last year however Minnesota gave up 30.7 shots per game. That was the 11^th worst total in the league. That’s a lot of shots for a team that doesn’t score to give up.

Anaheim(30.5), Boston(30.8) and Pittsburgh(30.3) give up around the same number of shots but they scored goals last year. Nicklas Backstrom was there to bail them out. He played the fourth most minutes in the league and yet had the fourth best save percentage in the league. He had a better save percentage then all the goalies who played at least 70 percent of their teams minutes including highly regarded work-horses Henrik Lundquist .916, Cam Ward .916, Steve Mason .916,Ryan Miller .918 and Marc Andre Fleury .912. He had the third best goals against average in the league.

His eight shut-outs were yes, you guessed it, third best in the league and his 37 wins were fifth best. Behind him was the talented Josh Harding who at one time was the 1A goalie in this tandem. He’s been relegated to a back-up role but he’s still an able contributor. He might get dealt for more scoring this year. The goaltending is their strength. A talented skater or two added to the mix can only improve this team.

Defense in Minnesota has a certain cachet and the defenders are sought after as New Jersey’s are, when they become available. Kurtis Foster was snapped up by Tampa Bay after breaking his leg last year. Minnesota has 15.2 million dollars wrapped up in four defensemen Brent Burns, Kim Johnsson, Nik Schultz and Marek Zidlicky. Brent when healthy is a big tough strong skating hitter with offensive skills.

He’s likely to play in the first four for Canada at the Olympics if he can stay healthy. He’s returning from concussion which is always a worry. The other three are skaters as well. Johnsson is a big defenseman with a light touch who plays the game softer then some would like.

Zidlicky is their other offensive defensemen who was signed away from Nashville last year and helps run the power play. Schultz an offensive guy in junior seems to have taken his skating ability and metamorphosed into a shut-down defenseman. Older defensive role players Shane Hnidy and Greg Zanon have been brought in to fill out the roster with veteran defenders. 19 year old Tyler Cuma, coming off a torn MCL that kept him out of the world junior hockey championships last year, may crack the lineup and push one of the veterans into the seven slot.

Offensive defensemen Marc Andre Bergeron and Martin Skoulla have been left unsigned. I have to believe someone in need of offense on the point of the power play will eventually pick them up.

Offense is Minnesota’s Achilles heel. They scored 219 goals last year while star Marion Gaborik was injured for most of the season. There were eight teams in the NHL who scored fewer last year. Only the Rangers were a playoff team. New free agent pick up Martin Havlat is playing and has scored in the pre-season.

His injury history and western final concussions have to be worrisome but right now it looks like he’ll play more games this year then Gaborik did last. That will help the offense. It’s thought that the defensive system played in Minnesota inhibits offense. I think their lack of real first rate offensive talent does so as well.

Mikko Koivu and Pierre Marc Bouchard are certainly talented but they both need a sniper to play with. Antti Mietenen is a great strong skating checker with counter-attack ability and can certainly lead a quick skilled checking line with Belanger and perhaps one of the younger players Clutterbuck or Gillies. Andrew Brunette still has some scoring skill though he’s entering the last few years of his career. Owen Nolan is on the verge of retirement and one injury might put him there.

You have to play him though until you have someone better to replace him with. Petr Sykora a healthy scratch in the Penguins Stanley Cup run has been brought in to add offense. The talented veteran will not hurt the offense. Any extra offense has to come from youngsters. Maybe young Haligonian James Sheppard can score more on the big club. Unfortunately even 10 goals seem like a lot to ask for.

The goaltending and the defense can take this team into or near the playoffs. The scoring should be improved marginally this year. They’ve spent up to the cap so they’ve got little flexibility to add salary during the year. I see Minnesota finishing eight or ninth, probably ninth. If they do make the playoffs and don’t generate some secondary scoring they’ll be out in the first round, again.

Edmonton

Finishing a mere six points out of the playoffs last year, they seemed out of the running long before the season ended. They suffered through an almost team wide sophomore jinx and missed the playoffs for the third year in a row. Craig Mactavish paid the price and veteran coach Pat Quinn has been brought in to mentor them. Hot off success with Canada’s world junior team it’s thought he’s the man to bring the youngsters forward.

Dwayne Roloson had a quality year in nets for Edmonton at age 40. He signed with the New York Islanders while Edmonton opted to sign Chicago’s 36 year old goalie Nikolai Khabibulin. He probably represents an upgrade in nets for Edmonton but not as big an improvement as fans will hope. Roloson played a thousand minutes more then Nicky did, on a team that gave up almost four shots a game more then Chicago did. His statistics were not that much worse then Khabibulin’s.

Edmonton will probably try to use and groom one of their younger goalies and get him ready to replace Khabibulin in the next 3-4 years. Roloson would have needed to be replaced in the next year or two. Look for Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers to get a chance to play a quarter or even a third of Edmonton’s games. Big David Dubnyk might also get some games in at the NHL level though he’ll probably be the starter for Springfield in the AHL.

Edmonton has four defensemen who can give you more then half a point a game and two Souray and Vishnovsky, who last year provided .6 points a game. That’s an embarrassment of riches when you throw in Grebeshkov and Gilbert. Trading one of these offensive defenseman (Vishnovsky?) for a first rate center makes a lot of sense to me.

Perhaps if the owner who wants to tear down the team in Tampa Bay wins the power struggle, Lecavalier will be available. Behind these four are the poorly aging Steve Staois and the cost-effective Ladislav Smid. Edmonton could also probably use a shut-down defensive defenseman to balance out all this skill. Moving Matt Greene to LA seems to have left that spot empty.

If they don’t manage to find one then they are better served by keeping the puck in the other teams zone. A lot of these guys are a little uncertain while playing in their own zone.

The offense needs to bounce back after an anemic year. The make-up of their defense requires the team to be dominant offensively, not just fair. The team needs a legitimate first line center. Shawn Horcoff is a speedy talented player but not a real first line NHL center. He’s often overmatched in that slot whereas I imagine he’d excel in the number two spot.

Alex Hemsky is the only of their grab bag of talented offensive forwards who has graduated to become a legitimate NHL scorer. A better center to play with can only

help him. Edmonton thought they were adding a tough veteran forward to help the mix when they brought in Eric Cole. Unfortunately he seemed mostly disinterested in Edmonton and was a bust.

Dustin Penner was the weak link on a Duck team that won the cup, vanishing the deeper his team got in to the playoffs. He’s a big bodied presence with soft hands but he’s painfully slow. The contrast he offers to Edmonton’s other tiny quick youngsters has to be good for something. I still believe he’s got the ability to be an NHL power forward.

Youngsters Gagner, Cogliano and Nilsson all have to step forward this year. Perennial disappointment Robbie Schremp has to be given a chance to succeed or moved out of the organization. New acquisition Patrick O’Sullivan looks like he’s going to snap up a spot on the second line.

Mike Comrie has been brought in to help the offense. The Edmonton native was reviled in Edmonton when he held out and eventually was sent on his way. It’ll take a lot of goals to win himself a spot by the fire and I don’t know that the soft one-dimensional player has it in him. This team with their still young talent is still the team that could improve the most from inside. Jordan Eberle and first round pick Magnus Pajaarvi-Svensson should get a chance to make the team.

The Oilers like all the other members of the Northwest have spent to the limit of the cap.

They do have players they could trade that other teams would be interested in. I don’t see this lineup being much better then last years and I’m looking for them to drop a spot in the west finishing 12^th overall.

Colorado

The worst team in the west last year. Since the move from Quebec City they had never suffered through such an ignominious season. Age and injuries caught up with what looked like, along with Detroit and New Jersey, to be one of the best run organizations in professional hockey.

During the 15 years since the move to Denver the Avalanche had not had a season where they earned fewer than 95 points. Last year they got 69. They hung coach Tony Granato out to dry while they courted crazy old Patrick Roy to be their coach. Ultimately he declined the offer and they signed former Avalanche player Joe Sacco to run the team.

Goaltending killed Colorado last year. Petr Budaj and Andrew Raycroft cannot be your goaltending tandem. Raycroft was left unsigned and got picked up by Vancouver. Budaj and his .899 save percentage and 2.86 goals against average have been retained to be the starter in Colorado.

Craig Anderson was picked up from Florida to be the back-up. This astute pick-up cost them only 1.8 million a year. Anderson thrived in Florida’s high shot environment, at times winning the starting job from Tomas Vokoun. He had a .924 save percentage while playing a third of his teams games. He could quite possibly win the starting job and perhaps solve Colorado’s goaltending problems. If not he’ll provide good back up goaltending which is something Raycroft didn’t manage.

Another huge problem for Colorado was their aging slow-footed defense. Scott Hannan and Adam Foote are veteran, hard nosed shutdown defensemen. Unfortunately for a couple years now the 38 year old Foote and the 30 year old Hannan are skating like they have one blade stuck in the ice. Certainly Foote’s minutes need to be restricted to maintain his value.

Desperate for defenders who can skate Colorado moved veteran Ryan Smyth and his large six million a year contract to Los Angeles for last years power play

savant Kyle Quincey and aging moderately talented Tom Preissing. Suddenly Colorado had tripled the number of skaters they had behind the blue line and freed up some cap space.

Now John Michael Lilles isn’t alone trying to run the Avalanche power play. Ruslan Salei also provides another veteran (36) banger. Brett Clark is another veteran defenseman with limited skills who might be on the downward side of his career. It would be nice for the organization if they could promote a youngster on to the defense from inside the organization. Kevin Shattenkirk the college offensive defenseman is the most likely candidate. He’s getting ready to start his second year at Boston University.

The offense last year took a dip after a pretty good year in 2007-08. Joe Sakic has retired. Ryan Smyth has been traded. Darcy Tucker is valueless and needs to be waived to the minors or bought out. There were injuries among the core of the remaining players.

Stasny, Hejduk, Wolski and Svatos need to stay healthy for the offense to recover. Matt Duchene was called perhaps the most NHL ready player in last years amateur draft. I think he can fill the No.2 center slot a la Stamkos in Tampa Bay. The superior supporting cast around Duchene may allow him to outscore the more talented John Tavares and be rookie of the year. I have to believe this team will score more goals even without Smyth.

The youngsters they have will all get a chance to prove themselves and one or two will pan out.

Colorado I think did the most to improve themselves in the off-season of any Northwest division team. Unfortunately they had a lot of improvements to make. I think better goaltending, faster skating defensemen and a better power play will allow this team to improve somewhat.

They’re still last in the Northwest but I think they’ll pass Nashville and Phoenix. Another year of strong drafting will have Colorado back within striking distance of the playoffs. Good organizations can lose but not for long.

2008/09 Northwest Division Standings 2009/10 Northwest Division Prediction

1/Vancouver Canucks(3) 100 1/Calgary Flames (3) 99

2/Calgary Flames (5) 98 2/Vancouver Canucks (7) 92

3/ Minnesota Wild (9) 89 3/Minnesota Wild (9) 90

4/Edmonton Oilers (11) 85 4/Edmonton Oilers (12) 82

5/Colorado Avalanche (15) 69 5/Colorado Avalanche (13) 80

Ovechkin and the Rest: NHL Southeast Division Preview

Scott Weldon — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 08:06:43 -0400

The shortest offseason in professional sports is over and it’s time to try to figure out what went on in the offseason and how it’ll effect what’s happening going forward in the NHL this year.

I’m starting with last year's worst division in hockey: the Southeast. I’m looking at the teams in the order they finished last season and predicting how they’ll finish in the division and the Eastern Conference this year.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

The Southeast features some of the most flawed teams in the league. Shaky ownership makes you wonder if many or any of these deficiencies will ever be addressed.

Washington has a good owner and needs depth. Unfortunately, they’ve spent right up to the limit of the cap.

Carolina had a great year and a great run last season, but their veteran lineup needs an infusion of fresh, young talent.

The Atlanta owners have stopped suing each other, but spending money on a first rate talent to play with their star doesn’t seem to be a priority.

The NHL is struggling to get one of the Tampa Bay owners to buy out the other. Does either one of them have any money? Which one wants to build around their core and which one wants to start over again with Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman?

Florida was in the process of being sold as the economic crisis hit. It certainly hasn’t sped up the process. How much are they willing to spend to get the first line center they lost when they traded Olli Jokinen away?

With unresolved issues for all five of its teams, the Southeast will once again be a weak division this season.

Washington Capitals

Washington won the division by a comfortable margin last year, beating Carolina by 11 points and finishing second in the East. Their record was inflated by playing 24 Southeast games. Their 50 wins were the fifth-best total in the league.

The interesting aspect of all this is that they managed this success with a goaltending tandem of Jose Theodore and Brent Johnson.

Theodore had a .900 save percentage in a league where .910 is the median. Theodore ranked 35th out of 43 in save percentage among those goalies who played at least one-third of their team's minutes. His goals-against average placed him 34th.

More damning still was the fact that after running with Theodore in net all season long, Washington decided after only one playoff game to go with the untested Semyon Varlamov.

There’s not much faith in Washington for Theodore, with good reason. Varlamov was a huge upgrade. He should get a chance to start in goal for Washington this year.

Youngsters often fall apart under that pressure, so a veteran backup will be needed. Arturs Irbe has been brought in as a coach for Varalamov to help acclimate and stabilize him. Theodore will probably start to begin the season, and he can perhaps fill the veteran backup role.

Unfortunately, at $4.5 million a year, Theodore's an expensive backup. If they trade him, they would address their lack of offensive and/or defensive depth that’s been a problem in Washington for the last few years. In that case, young prospect Michael Neuvirth would be probably called upon to back up Varlamov.

The defense is led by Mike Green. The offensive phenom with 31 goals and 73 points had one of the best years by a defenseman in recent memory. He had some iffy moments in his own zone in the playoffs, but so did Paul Coffey.

Tom Poti is still a stabilizing veteran who can move the puck, but his offensive numbers have dropped in recent years. He had just 13 points in 52 games last year.

Shaone Morrison is in his prime as an able hitter and shot blocker. Young and smooth-skating blue-liner Karl Alzner should get a shot at playing 80 games while providing a huge talent upgrade for a Washington defensive corps that drops off abruptly after the first couple players.

Milan Jurcina is a 233-pound shot blocker that brings little else to the table. Brian Pothier, back from a concussion, and the purely defensive John Erskine will likely fill out the Capitals' blue line.

John Carlson, Tyler Sloan and Sean Collins might be expected to be the first call-ups in case of injury.

The most important part of the Washington Capitals is, of course, the offense and the most important part of that is Alexander The Great, Alex Ovechkin.

Ovechkin won the Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals scored in the league with 56 and was second in points behind Evgeni Malkin of Pittsburgh. He was given the Hart Trophy as the league's MVP.

Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, and Green helped Washington score the third-most goals in the league last year. After those four, the drop-off in offense is precipitous.

Too much of the team is dependent on a healthy Ovechkin. His reckless style will eventually see him getting hurt, which will signal a death knell for Washington. His huge salary also makes it tough for Washington to add supporting cast members.

Washington will be flat against the cap this year and can be expected to play a lot of youngsters in the hope that some of them will bloom.

As long as Ovechkin stays healthy, I see them winning their division handily and perhaps improving defensively and offensively over last year. The Bruins might beat them into second place this year.

Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina had a successful season last year. They were sixth in the East and second in the Southeast with 45 wins and 97 points.

They won two seven-game playoff series as underdogs and finally succumbed to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins in four games.

The goaltending was handled by Cam Ward, who played almost 80 percent of his team's minutes. His .916 save percentage and 2.44 GAA placed him near the top 10 in the league in both categories. His 39 wins were the third-most in the league behind only Miikka Kiprusoff and Evgeny Nabokov.

Ward had an .897 save percentage as a follow up to their Stanley Cup run in 2005-'06. A similar dip this year would be disastrous for Carolina, especially with no proven backup in sight.

The defense looked good last year, but seems to be built mostly from spare parts and journeymen.

Frantisek Kaberle and the concussed Dave Tanabe were bought out of their contracts. Aaron Ward has been brought in at 36 to provide a veteran physical presence. It will be interesting to see how the former Bruin and Scott “sucker punch” Walker get along.

Offensively, Eric Staal carried his team through the playoffs last year.

Chad Larose, hot off a great playoff performance, and Walker look to provide more offensive depth this year along with Eric Cole, Matt Cullen, Sergei Samsonov and Jussi Jokinen.

Rod Brind'Amour looks to be at the end of his career and may only play in limited situations.

I’m expecting injuries to dog this team and for Cam Ward to wear down and have a worse year than last.

I see them finishing last in the Southeast and 13th in the East.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers missed the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season last year by the slimmest of margins. They lost out based on their record against the Montreal Canadiens.

Team ownership is still in flux at a time when they need management input desperately. Florida began last year by trading Olli Jokinen to Phoenix for defensive skill and depth.

Those additions combined with supposed “all-world” defenseman Jay Bouwmeester playing 25 minutes a night, still produced a team that gave up a league-worst 34.9 shots per game.

How Florida, with that leaky defense, even managed to get close to a playoff spot is a mystery to me.

Two factors have to come in to play.

One, of course, is their weak division. They were 13-11-4 against the Southeast last season.

The other is goaltending. Tomas Vokoun and Craig Anderson had the second- and third-best save percentages in the league.

Despite all the shots, Florida was ninth in the league in goals against at 2.72. Vokoun and Anderson kept them in games and in the playoff hunt.

The defense is led by Keith Ballard, the sole remainder from the Jokinen deal. He’s a responsible, hard-skating youngster with some offensive upside.

Next on the depth chart is probably Bryan McCabe. He’s a big guy with a big shot who’s often in trouble in his own end. He can play the point on the power play and in a perfect world, he plays on your third defensive pairing.

He can be frightening when confronted with speed in his own zone. If he can duplicate the 15 goals he scored last year, he’s useful and he can supply a physical presence.

Florida has a roster full of young, talented players. Unfortunately, they have no veterans around to lead them.

Cory Stillman is the last remaining veteran forward on the team. He still has skills and can make himself useful on the power play, but this team could really use a big, solid, veteran center.

The 26-year-old Stephen Weiss looks to be the first line center this year. If he and some other young forwards improve this year, Florida could be scoring a lot more goals.

Rotislav Olesv had a horrible first year after signing a long-term contract. He’s got to get healthy and approach and surpass his earlier career numbers.

David Booth had a great year in Florida with 30 goals and 30 assists. If he can maintain that, he’ll be the perfect second-line left winger.

This team has spent $51 million and still needs a veteran scoring center. If they could add that player they could be a playoff team (and with Vokoun in net, a good one).

Unfortunately, I’m sure they won’t. I’m hoping a good season from Horton, Frolik, et al will let Florida’s ownership know they’re close to having a very good, young team.

I see them finishing 12th in the East, fourth in the Southeast.

Atlanta Thrashers

After their first trip to the playoffs in 2006-'07, Atlanta had a dreadful season. Last year they finished 13th in the East, 17 points out of a playoff spot.

They re-signed former first-round pick Kari Lehtonen to a one year, $3 million contract. This will be his year to prove he’s worthy of that first-round pick.

The goalie made 32.7 saves per game last year, second-best in the NHL. But his .911 save percentage was average.

His numbers need to improve and Atlanta’s improved defense should allow that to happen.

Atlanta has been working on their defensive shortcomings over the last two years. Pavel Kubina has been added to quarterback the power play. He’s another experienced, puck-moving defenseman in the mix.

Ron Hainsey also provides a strong skating and reasonably physical presence, albeit for too much money. Zach Bogosian, last year's first-round pick, should provide some young, quality minutes.

Atlanta's active defense should help Lehtonen’s numbers and let him grow into becoming the top 10 goalie he was projected to be.

Offensively, it begins and ends in Atlanta with Ilya Kovalchuk. In a contract year, expect him to score 50 goals.

Brian Little and Slava Kozlov are also both in the last year of contracts while big, slow Nik Antropov has been signed as Atlanta’s free agent acquisition, supposedly at Kovalchuk’s behest. His methodical style wouldn’t seem to mesh well with Kovalchuk's frenetic one, but perhaps they’ll complement each other.

Marty Reasoner, Rich Peverley and Eric Boulton give them a nice mix of experience and exuberance to try out on a shut down line.

Meanwhile, former can’t-miss junior standout Angelo Esposito had a good World Junior tournament last Christmas. He deserves a shot with the club and might just manage to bring some offense from within the organization.

I see the Thrashers finishing second in the Southeast this year and sneaking in to the playoffs as the eighth seed. Hopefully they make a better account of themselves than they did in their last appearance.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning embarked on a brave experiment last year. It’s something no other team has ever tried.

The new ownership decided that defense was superfluous for playing hockey. They ran with Andrej Meszaros and Paul Ranger as their only experienced NHL defensemen to start the season.

There's a reason no other team has ever tried it. Tampa Bay finished last in the weakest division in hockey and ahead of only the New York Islanders in the entire Eastern Conference.

The team giving up 32.9 shots per game, good for third-worst in the NHL. Tampa's goals-against average was 3.28, fourth-worst in the league.

Goalie Mike Smith had a good .916 save percentage while playing roughly half his team's minutes.

Meszaros and Ranger have returned on defense. Meszaros is a big defenseman with some offensive skills. Ranger is a fair defender who earns his $996,000 a year.

Acquisition Mattias Ohlund us coming off an 82-game season and he represents a huge upgrade on defense for Tampa Bay. He’ll also be mentor for second overall draft pick Victor Hedman.

Hedman has NHL speed and NHL size. Unfortunately, most GMs confuse that with being NHL-ready, so Hedman will suffer through some growing pains when he’s thrust into the center of Tampa Bay's defense and power play.

This defense should look like a collection of Norse Gods in comparison to what hit the ice last year.

Vinnie Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis are aging, but they still lead the Tampa Bay offense.

Sophomore Steve Stamkos should be better this year while Ryan Malone and Alex Tanguay round out the Lightning's talented offense.

I think Tampa Bay will take a huge jump forward this year. In the end, Mike Smith will probably not be the franchise goalie they’ve needed since Khabibulin left, but I see them passing Carolina and Florida. They'll finish 10th in the East and third in the Southeast.

2008-'09 Southeast Standings

1. Washington 108 points

2. Carolina 97 points

3. Florida 93 points

4. Atlanta 76 points

5. Tampa Bay 66 points

2009-'10 Southeast Prediction

1. Washington 105 points

2. Atlanta 90 points

3. Tampa Bay 86 points

4. Florida 85 points

5. Carolina 84 points

Habs Ask for a Fresh Deck: 2009-10 Preview

Scott Weldon — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:09:29 -0400

Montreal suffered through a year of exaggerated expectations.

They snuck into the playoffs past a mediocre Florida team on the basis of having a better record against them in the regular season. They were then swept by arch-rival Boston in four games.

This all happened after a first place finish in 2007-08 and a trip to the second round of the playoffs. The fans were anticipating another first place finish and a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.

The disappointment was palpable.

As a result of this step backwards, Bob Gainey and the Canadiens decided to rework their entire lineup.. He fired Guy Carbonneau, the coach last year, and took over the job himself. Jaques Martin was brought in to coach this year. They didn't resign their captain, Saku Koivu, their leading scorer Alexei Kovalev, their young physical defencemen Mike Komisarek, Alex Tanguay, Mathieu Schneider, Patrice Brisebois, Mathieu Dandenault, Marc Denis or Francis Boullion.

Then with almost $30 million to spend, they went out to try to completely change the team.

The goaltending is one place where the Canadiens stand pat. The Habs tried to play an up-tempo offensive style last year and often the goaltenders were left to fend for themselves. Jaroslav Halak seemed to thrive in that atmosphere winning several games, while the Canadiens were giving up more than 40 shots. Halak finished the season with a .915 save percentage. That was good enough to tie for 17th best among the 43 goalies who played at least a third of their team's minutes last year.

Not spectacular, but good.

Carey Price had a much more mediocre .905 save percentage, placing him 31st among the 43 goalies. Price had a 2.83 GAA in comparison to Halak's 2.86. Halak, however, made 30.61 saves per game. Price made 27.08 saves per game. The Habs gave up more shots in front of Halak and yet he stopped a greater percentage of them.

Gainey settled on Price, the first round draft pick, as their starter during the 2009 playoffs. He started and lost all four playoff games. For the Habs to succeed next year, they need the young goaltenders to get untracked. They especially need Price to recover the brilliance and confidence that he's shown at every other level of hockey.

If he manages that, the Habs may be able to salvage this season. If not they're unlikely to make the playoffs. Curtis Sanford has been brought in to be the veteran backup and replace Denis in the organization.

In order to insulate the young goalies, Gainey has sought out more veteran depth on defense. While allowing the 40-year-old Schneider and Brisebois to move on, they've added the 35-year-old Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek to the lineup.

Andrei Markov will still lead the defense, as he's a first rate offensive defenseman and puck mover. He needs a partner on the point of the power play with a shot, a need the Habs haven't addressed.

Paul Mara is a 30-year-old defenseman with reasonable physical skills who helps replace some of the hitting that Komisarek brought to the team. Hal Gill is also a huge, plodding physical defenseman. He brings Stanley Cup winning experience and a large wingspan to the mix. As long as he's not overused, he should help clear out the front of the Habs' net and keep them from being pushed around in their own end. When faced with speed in his own end, he can get into a lot of trouble.

Roman Hamrlik is another 35-plus defenseman on the downside of his career. He has some offensive ability and he's got good size that he tends to never use. Every year, he's another year older and another year slower. Jaroslav Spacek was brought in probably to be the other offensive defenseman on the power play. He's coming off of a career best 45 points, but the 35-year-old doesn't have a big shot and has been known to get in trouble in his own zone.

Josh Gorges was a throw in, in the Craig Rivet deal with San Jose. He's played a lot of minutes in Montreal and gives them a reasonably physical, competent NHL defenseman. The increase in team depth should decrease his minutes and help his play. Ryan O'byrne got an opportunity to jump to the big club last year and he failed to impress. His five points and -7 rating in 37 games didn't help. He'll get another chance this year, a little further down the depth chart. The 35-plus-year-old defensemen will likely get hurt and will need to be subbed out, every so often.

PK Subban is still probably too young to make the big club, but might get a chance to try out this year. He'll be needed soon to replace the players who are moving on. His offensive creativity should help the team.

The defense should be better this year and this should help calm down the goalies. The Habs will hopefully give up fewer than 247 goals they did last year.

The biggest change has come on offense.

From what seemed like three fast skating scoring lines in 2007-08, the Habs devolved into a team that had to get the puck to Kovalev in order to have a chance of scoring. The loss of the big point shot on the power play (Sheldon Souray 81 GP/23 G/30 A, Mark Streit 74 GP/ 16G/40A ) has ruined it.

Gainey picked up that millstone of a contract of Gomez's and gave up Christopher Higgins, a quick skating playmaker who had 27 goals and 53 points in 2007-08. They also lost defensive prospect Ryan Mcdonagh. Gomez, a moderately talented playmaker who is probably better suited to be a second line center than a first, makes $7.5 million a year. He had 58 points last year, frighteningly close to what Higgins had the year before. Gomez is still an upgrade from what the Habs had at center last year.

Mike Cammalleri, one of the more exciting free agents available, was signed for $6 million per year for five years. The sniper in his prime should work well with Gomez. The tiny quick Brian Gionta has been brought in at $5 million per year to try to recapture the magic he had with Gomez in New Jersey during the 2005-06 season.

The three forwards will get five years together to prove they were good signings. They are all talented and will skate fast. The key to Montreal's offense will be what the second line of Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn, and Sergei Kostitsyn manage to do. If they manage what they did last year, expect the Habs to be worse offensively. A checking line of Glen Metroplit, Travis Moen, and Maxim Lapiere should get a chance to prove they can help out the defense. Lapierre might play on the second line. The fourth line with D'Agostini, Max Pacioretty, Guillaume Latendresse, and Georges Laraque, will hopefully be able to compete.

Gainey, in my view, has done a lot of dancing to stand in place. It all hinges on what the goaltenders do and I've seen nothing to indicate that Price is the saviour he needs to be. The marginally improved (deeper) defense should help, but I'm afraid it won't be enough.

I think the offense will be better, but only because I'm expecting rebound years from Andrei Kostitsyn and Tomas Plekanek. Kovalev will kill Montreal for the six games they play him this year. I'm also anticipating a better offensive year from Lapiere or D'Agostini. The Habs have spent all the money they can and still need a big shot to put on the point of the power play.

If Price isn't better and Martin refuses to go with Halak, the Habs will miss the playoffs passed perhaps by the team that did the least in the offseason, Buffalo.

If Miller stays healthy I see Montreal finishing 9th or 10th and missing the playoffs, while the Sabres pass them in the Northeast Division.

That of course will end in Gainey being fired.

Montreal Canadiens and the Karmic Curse of Irving Grundman

Scott Weldon — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 13:36:38 -0400

It was the summer of 1978 and the Montreal Canadiens were the greatest organization in hockey. Fresh from winning their third Stanley Cup in a row and their 21st Stanley Cup ever, they were arguably the best run organization in professional sports. Sitting at the helm guiding the team was the single best General Manager in Montreal Canadiens history, Sam Pollock.

Sam was in his last of 14 years and was winning his ninth Stanley Cup as Les Habitants' GM. Behind the bench was the (even then) legendary Scotty Bowman. The team featured the Art Ross and Hart trophy winner Guy Lafleur. Ken Dryden and Michel "Bunny" Laroque had won the Vezina trophy as the leagues best goaltending tandem.

Bob Gainey had won the Frank J. Selke trophy as the leagues best defensive forward. Larry Robinson won the Conn Smythe trophy as the best player in the playoffs. Les Glorieux were unstoppable hockey titans with a history of teams, players and managers reaching back to before the first world war.

Then, on Aug. 4,1978, Molsons of Canada bought the team back from the Bronfmans for a reported $20 million. Three Molson cousins had sold the team to the Bronfmans back in 1971 and were apparently suffering from some sort of delayed sellers remorse. Molsons bought the team, the Habs moved from hard liquor to beer and the organization has never been the same.

The new ownership coincided with the "retirement" of Sam Pollock at the relatively young age of 53. Sam Pollock had picked up the general manager reins from the great Frank J Selke in 1964. Selke retired at the age of 71 after training his replacement Pollock for five years to succeed him.

The Montreal Canadiens slogan was and is "To you from failing hands we throw the torch. Be yours to hold it high." The Canadiens tried to live up to this excerpt from the world war I poem "In Flanders Field" by John Macrae. The ideal was believed to hold for players and managers alike.

It stressed a culture of stability,continuity and mentoring to insure a worthy successor for each individual on the team. Sam Pollocks groomed successor was Scotty Bowman but that was not to be.

Molson's upon Pollocks retirement brought in Irving Grundman to be the general manager of the Canadiens. He was not a hockey guy he was a businessmen. His claim to fame was that he built from scratch an empire of bowling lanes in Montreal Ottawa, and Kingston called Laurentian Lanes. He was certainly not Sam Pollocks hand-picked successor.

He didn't have the legendary knowledge that Pollock had accumulated in a life time in hockey. He was an owner and operator of bowling alley's who seemed to think it might be fun to run a hockey club. Molson's apparently agreed and the fun soon began.

The next year Les Habitants won the cup again for the fourth year in a row. Irving Grundman has his name on the cup as the GM of a Stanley Cup winning team. This was of course Pollock's team, but that's how Grundman began his time in Montreal; at the top.

On June 11,1979 after winning that fourth Stanley Cup in a row Scotty Bowman announced he was leaving to become the general manager of the Buffalo Sabres. Does anyone wonder if the Montreal Canadien dynasty might have continued longer if Bowman succeeded Pollock and groomed his own replacement say by the year 2000.

At the very least the Canadiens would have faced the eighties with a general manager who knew hockey and not that witless wonder, Grundman. At his farewell press conference Bowman said "...there was no room for Irving Grundman and me on the same team."

Who would you rather have? A hockey hall of famer or the bowling savant? Bowman said at the time he couldn't stand the way Grundman was running the team and had no respect for the mans hockey acumen. It could be called sour grapes. Now it just seems prescient.

Jacques Lemaire scored his last NHL goal in the playoffs that year. It was the Stanley Cup winning goal. At age 34 Lemaire had 55 points in 50 NHL games. He had 97 points in 76 games the year before. During the 1979 playoffs Jacques had 23 points in 16 playoff games. He and Cournoyer were the elder statesman on this great team.

He was the first line center with Lafleur and Cournoyer for a good deal of the time. He was an offensive player who was defensively responsible (go figure) good on the faceoff, with a huge shot. He had some good playing years left in him.

During the salary negotiations with Lemaire I still remember the defining quote that came from Irving Grundman.

Lemaire was threatening to play in Switzerland if the Habs wouldn't sign him for more money. Grundmans response to this crucial member of the Canadiens was , "No one plays hockey in Switzerland." ,except as it turned out Jacques Lemaire. A Montreal Canadien icon was lost and treated with disrespect in the process. It did not bode well.

The litany of failure continued for Grundman. The 1980 entry draft was held in Montreal. The hands down, no-brainer, consensus pick was Dennis Savard. He was a french canadian offensive wizard who had been genetically engineered to replace Guy Lafleur.

Lafleur in 1984-85 from his faltering hands finally I believe passed the torch to Stephane Richer. Richer dropped it. Then backed up over it.

Who did Irving Grundman pick in that 1980 entry draft with first overall pick that they'd stolen from the Colorado Rockies? He chose Doug Wickenheiser. Now Doug was a highly regarded kid at the time, bigger and tougher then the little Savard. He'd had great seasons in the western hockey league and was considered by some to be the better player.

However, in Montreal, turning your nose up at the second coming of Guy Lafleur/Jean Beliveau is akin to sacrilege. Grundman did it of course in his own inimitable fashion. His best quote this time was "We're not going to take a player just because he's French-Canadian we're going to take the best player available."

Grundman, of course, wouldn't have known the best player if he'd run and bitten him on the ass. Wickenheiser in the end had a reasonable NHL career. He carved himself out a niche in St Louis as a tough responsible checker. Unfortunately, offensively, the man could not score at the NHL level. Doug eventually scored 111 goals in 555 games which is a heck of a career. Denis had 473 goals in 1169 games and is a hall of famer.

There were other debacles in Grundmans short five-year stint in Montreal. In an ill-managed attempt to manipulate the waiver system he lost Pierre Bouchard, a Montreal rock of a defenceman and son of hall of fame Montreal Legend Emile "Butch" Bouchard. During the same mess he also managed to lose up and comer Rod Schutt.

What Grundman managed to do more then anything else was to break the threads and connections that used to run through the Montreal Canadiens. There was a path from captain to captain to captain ,GM to GM, goalie to goalie that ran through the organization Les Habitants have been trying to retie those bonds ever since.

From 1940 'til when Grundman was hired the Montreal Canadiens had five head coaches Dick Irvin,Toe Blake, Claude Ruel, Al MacNeil, and Scotty Bowman. For the next 31 years there have been seventeen and only Bowman the leftover from the Pollock days is going to make the hall of fame as a coach.

From 1940-78 there were three GM's before Grundman. From 1978 'til 2009 there have been five soon to be six and again no Hall of Famers. From 1940-78 there were nine Montreal Canadiens captains: Walter Buswell, Toe Blake, Bill Durnan, Emile "Butch" Bouchard, Maurice "The Rocket" Richard, Doug Harvey, Jean Beliveau, Henri Richard, Yvan Cournoyer.

It's a who's who of hockey greatness. Since then, it's been Cournoyer, Savard, Gainey, Chelios, Carbonneau, Keane, Turgeon, Damphousse, and Koivu. It's nine guys but the last six have been traded away.

Irving Grundman was arguably the worst GM in Montreal Canadiens history and the team still hasn't recovered from the desecration he visited on the organization. The Montreal Canadiens have become just another hockey organization and not really that good of one. The karmic burden the organization has taken on since that time isn't as staggering as some curses have been.

The Canadiens have managed to win two cups since his tenure ended ,in 1986 and 1993, but the organization itself has never been the same.

The Chicago Blackhawks in removing the hockey guy who put their team together for them may be taking on a similar karmic debt of their own. I'd warn them to be very, very careful. If they win a cup this year and then lose some of their key young players next year they may start down a long dark path that I can attest is painful to travel.

Abstaining in the Offseason: Six NHL Teams That Had No Action All Summer

Scott Weldon — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 08:40:10 -0400

Every year after the season is over twenty nine teams didn't win a stanley cup. Fans of those teams and even fans of the team that did win hope their organization, through scouting, guile and the liberal application of funds will manage to find and sign those players that will fill out their roster and turn their also ran into a champion. Unfortunately many of those teams choose to do nothing. Many long suffering fans have hitched their hopes to organizations that seem to shut-down for the summer. They show up for the draft and then it's pre-season when they seem to figure out their team doesn't have what it takes to win. Here are the six teams I feel embraced that philosophy this summer.

Begin Slideshow

Down the Rabbit Hole: Maybe MLB Knows Why Balls Are Hopping Off Bats

Scott Weldon — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 06:33:09 -0400

When Mark McGwire first hit 70 home runs in a Major League Baseball season, it became apparent to everyone who was paying attention that something was wrong.

During the era before McGwire's 1998 assault on the record books, from just after Roger Maris hit his 61 home runs in a season until 1993, only three players in major league baseball hit 50 home runs or more in a season.

Willie Mays hit 52 to lead the league in 1965. George Foster hit 52 with the Big Red Machine in 1977. Cecil Fielder hit 51 in 1990.

It was hard, almost impossible, to hit 50 home runs in the major leagues.

Hank Aaron, in his entire storied home run hitting career, never hit 50 in a season.

Mike Schmidt was one of the best home run hitters in history. He led the majors in home runs for six seasons, including three in a row. McGwire led the league five times (tying with Andre Dawson in 1987).

Schmidt’s season best totals were 36, 38, 38, 48, 31, and 40. People were being asked to believe that Mark McGwire was twice the home run hitter Mike Schmidt was. It was not credible.

In the past, teams often hit fewer than 100 home runs in a season. Teams that hit more than 200 home runs in a season were noteworthy. They got nicknames—see Harvey’s Wallbangers in Milwaukee.

The 1977 Red Sox hit 213 home runs. The Brewers in 1980 hit 203. Detroit in 1991 hit 209.

Generally speaking, around five clubs a year would hit fewer than 100 HRs. The year 1987 sticks out as the exception.

In 1986 the Tigers led the league with 198 home runs. The only team with fewer than 100 was the Cardinals with 58.

The 1988 team leader in home runs had 158. There were five teams with fewer than 100 home runs that year.

During the 1987 season five teams hit more than 200 home runs. The Cardinals were the worst team in the league again, but with 94 home runs this time.

After this anomalous year, HR hitting reverted to the norm. From 1988 to 1993, only one team hit more than 200 HRs in a season, and 23 teams during those six years had a season of fewer than 100 HRs.

The strike years of 1994 and '95 came along, and because only partial seasons were played it wasn’t immediately apparent that home run numbers were up.

Approximately 70 percent of a season was played in '94 and 89 percent of a season in 1995. When you extrapolated what teams had done for their partial season to a full season, you’d see that in 1994 three teams would have hit more than 200 home runs, and none would have fewer than 100. In 1995, the extrapolated numbers would be four and zero.

Certainly these numbers were not alarming but interesting. For 12 years, from 1996 to 2007, 89 major league baseball teams hit more than 200 HRs in a season. No team in that time period hit fewer than 100 HRs.

Apparently in 1994 it suddenly had become impossible for a major league ball team to hit fewer than 100 home runs in a season. What happened an average of five times a year for the previous 30 years had become instantaneously impossible. It went from being commonplace to impossible like the flicking of a switch.

In 2008, four teams hit over 200 home runs, and the San Francisco Giants became the first team since 1993 to hit fewer than 100 home runs in a season with 94.

What is to be made of all these bizarre numbers?

I decided to take a look at HR hitting historically in major league baseball. I got the HR totals league-wide for Major League Baseball from 1898 to 2008, and I also collected the AB totals league-wide and decided to use the HR/AB number to suggest how likely it was to hit home runs in the big leagues every year.

This gave me a huge sample size and what I thought should be a relatively constant number from year to year.

The league-wide seasonal HR/AB number turned out to be much more variable than I had anticipated. From 1898 until 1919, the putative end of the dead-ball era, there was a wide range of HR/AB from season to season. It ranged from .00624 HR/AB to .00309 HR/AB. There was an average of .00473 HR/AB hit over that period.

There was around half a percent chance each time a player had an AB in that era of a home run being hit.

Baseball instituted a better, more tightly-wound ball in 1920 and provided more of them so teams wouldn’t be forced to play an entire game with one or two balls, as had happened in the past. They would play with baseballs until they were literally pounded to pieces, often going into the stands after home runs and foul balls to get the ball back to play with.

No doubt this is the era that gave birth to the expression knocking the cover off the ball. The new ball showed a marked improvement in home run hitting league-wide. From 1920-28 the average stood at .01120 HR/AB. This was more than double the rate of home run hitting seen in the dead-ball era.

During the great depression and until America’s entrance into WWII, there was another marked and consistent increase in home run production. The average for this 13-year period was .0158 HR/AB. This was a jump of 41 percent league-wide that remained fairly steady through the '30s.

World War II brought a huge dip in home run hitting back to 1920s levels, but after the war home run hitting climbed quickly and then more gradually to a zenith in 1961.

From 1947 until 1966, the rate that home runs were hit per at bat averaged .0241 HR/AB. This average represented another 50 percent jump in average home run production every year. This increase occurred gradually and topped out from 1955 to 1964. The HR/AB rate increased above .0250 in 1955 for the first time in history, and eight years out of the next 10 stayed above that historic mark.

The 1961 season saw Roger Maris break Babe Ruth’s record for most home runs by a player in a season with 61 versus 60. That year saw the highest ever HR/AB ratio in major league baseball. That year, batters hit a home run every 35.5 ABs.

The HR/AB ratio was .02814. Major leaguers were hitting home runs 2.8 percent of the time they experienced an AB. This number remained the highest for a season in major league baseball until 1987.

Maris’ breaking of Ruth’s record caused consternation, protest, asterisks, and articles.

One of the theories put forward for Maris’ ability to hit 61 home runs in a season was that the ball being hit in 1961 was livelier than the one hit by Ruth in 1927. Major League Baseball denied there was any difference in the balls both in 1961 and at the end of the dead-ball era. They were certainly mistaken the first time.

After Maris hit his 61, major league home run production declined. From 1967 until 1986 there was much greater variability in HR/AB, but the number on average was lower.

For example, during that period of time the HR/AB climbed above .0250 only four times in 20 years. This is in stark contrast to the nine times it occurred in the previous 12 years.

The average during this period was .02218, less than the .0241 seen during Maris’ era (1947-1966). This came despite several attempts at the time to increase offense, including dropping the pitcher's mound from 15 inches to 10 in 1969, a decrease in the strike zone, and the institution of the DH rule in the American League in 1973.

Still, 1987 was, as I noted above, an anomalous high home run year and is still one of the highest HR/AB years in history at .03094. Right after 1987, baseball returned to six years much like the 20 before 1987, averaging .0224 HR/AB.

Then came the strike years and beyond. Aside from 1987, every year from 1994-2008 has had higher HR/AB per season than any earlier year in history.

The average HR/AB through this period is .03111. This represents approximately a 37 percent sustained increase in HR hitting league-wide above the average rate from 1969-2003, which was .02293. During those 15 years home run hitting has not sunk below .02900 HR/AB.

Major League Baseball is on pace again to hit home runs over three percent of the time a player has an at-bat. Roger Maris’ league-wide rate in 1961 of .02814 pales in comparison.

Why has this happened? Steroids have taken the blame. Anabolic steroids have been around and in use in professional and amateur sports for more than four decades.

It’s very unlikely that the players in Major League Baseball suddenly found out about steroids in 1993 and then all started using in 1994 and received an instantaneous boost in HR production above whatever boost the pitchers were getting. Throw in the anomalous 1987 HR hitting year, and that explanation makes no sense at all.

Furthermore, players are now tested for steroids. Theoretically, that’s having some impact on how many major league players are using them, and if they’re responsible for the increase in home runs being hit, I’d expect an equal decrease now that players have theoretically stopped using.

The HR/AB numbers for 2007 and 2008 were .02954 and .02926. This is quite a bit less than the previous year's .03219 or the average of .03116.

Unfortunately, these numbers are still higher than any pre-strike numbers in baseball history (except 1987). They’re higher than 1961’s .02814 and comparable to the strike year numbers of .02998 and .02945.

This increase in home run production is what I’d expect if they pulled the fences in by 30 or 40 feet.

The easiest way to increase offense and not get caught doing it would be to produce a baseball that bounces 37 percent further. It has the virtue of being done successfully before.

In my scenario, MLB tests a rabbit ball in 1987. At the time there were questions about steroids and a rabbit ball in MLB. Those questions went away when there were no repeated huge home run years following 1987.

In 1994, in preparation for a strike, MLB reintroduced the 1987 rabbit ball to boost offense and help win fans back after the strike. They’ve run with it ever since.

By doing so they’ve invalidated the single-season and career home run records. Everyone's power numbers remain unevaluated from the strike forward.

Is Mark McGwire a better home run hitter than Mike Schmidt? I don't think so, but I can't tell. The numbers tell me nothing.

The crazy home run numbers that people are putting up certainly fed the frenzy to find out if players were using steroids. I’m sure steroid use contributes to home run production, but I imagine it’s been doing so for 30 years and has gradually increased league-wide HR/AB totals as more and more players started using.

I can’t see steroid use instantaneously increasing home runs/AB by 37 percent from one year to the next. I believe that MLB is disingenuously letting the steroid-using players take the entire rap for goofy home run numbers.

There’s been a quantum shift in the number of home runs hit league-wide. Some pervasive variable has to have been changed to account for it.

I think they’ve juiced the ball and ruined the greatest records in professional sports in the process to get fans back after the strike. It seems shortsighted to me, but attendance is high and fans seem happy.

What more could a professional sports league want?

X-Cuse Me???

Scott Weldon — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 08:23:00 -0400

During the 1960s and 70s, a wide variety of alternative sports sprung up. They were variegated and tended to be non-competitive. Generally speaking they died out. I like to think they were out-competed by other sports. It's the Darwinian in me. I believe it was the baby boomers' first and last attempt to try to shape the sports landscape into something different then what their fathers watched.

The 1990s brought us the X Games. These are theoretically extreme sports that are supposed to dazzle us with their “x-citement” and flawless “x-ecution”. I always thought the X was used as a marketing ploy to bring in the Generation Xers, but I'm told by my demographer that X Games viewers and participants are more likely to be from Generation Y or next, so I'm completely wrong on that one. Fine.

I've seen some things done at these games that have a carnival sideshow appeal. There's an Evel Kneivel, stuntman kind of excitement to what's being done. How, though, is this artistic, sporting equivalent to the ski jumper crashing at the bottom of the jump on ABC's Wide World of Sports, a nationally broadcast, watched and enjoyed (I'm guessing) sporting event?

I can live with the races. A race is a race is a race. Whether you're running barefoot on a cinder track or rolling on a barrel downhill after a wheel of cheese, I can understand that. The fastest guy or girl or monkey on his barrel wins. That's a contested sport with winners and losers.

Unfortunately, the majority of X-sports involve arbitrarily judged events. Yes, figure skating and gymnastics have ruined this for everyone. During the last Summer Olympics I watched a female gymnast execute a low difficulty routine flawlessly. She ended up with a 9.2.

I watched the next woman on the same day with the same judges on the same uneven bars. She was doing a more difficult routine, so it had a greater degree of difficulty. She fell off the bars twice. She got a 9.3. If you fall off the bars isn't that a zero at least for that part of your routine? How did she beat perfect girl? That's it for me and judged events.

The X Games are generally doing the same thing. Distinctions that I can not make are being used to pick winners among a variety of athletes who are indistinguishable to me. There's nothing there for me to watch. If I can't tell who is good and who is bad and why someone won and lost, what is there for me to watch? Until they have guys on skateboards knocking each other off the rail with quarterstaffs, I'm out.

I came across the X Games a few days ago. There were a bundle of aged (30ish) punks riding their skateboards down a ramp at a railing. Generally about half of them tried to ride the rail and half of them jumped the stairs; I didn't see one of them, in my ten minutes of viewing, stick a landing.

I watched these guys swoop down, jump up, slide, or rotate their way to the bottom and fall, over and over again. All I could think was that most of these guys were too old to be taking these falls. When I'm aged and in a home, my social security will be paying for their hospital bills, too. In another 10 years, all these guys are going to be getting their legs and spines replaced.

Apparently each competitor got 40 attempts. I'd be in traction after No. 3. Forty attempts and they're getting judged in that arbitrary way I love. They're all basically doing the same thing and they're all getting different, meaningless numbers. The guy fell off his skateboard. Give him a zero. He's got another 39 attempts coming. He'll make it up.

This resembled, more then anything else I've ever seen, kids playing the kind of useless made up games me and my friends played when we were teenagers. We played Over the Fence is Out, and Ultimate Hand-ball and FotKerball (which was so much like Australian Rules Football that I wanted to apply for a copyright infringement when I first saw that sport played).

No one put our idiot screwing around on national TV, though. This rail-riding game on TV seems a little like broadcasting kids throwing a ball around in a backyard or infielders warming up with a game of pepper. I can see showing it once out of interest for this different, dangerous activity, but broadcasting it regularly and nationally? I obviously don't get it.

My fear is that this X-stuff is so popular it will eventually replace actual sports. It certainly is another of the myriad of activities that get better ratings on TV in the US then my beloved hockey. Of course so does NASCAR, ping pong, water polo, and women’s golf. I think field hockey might get better ratings in the US than real hockey.

All I know is that if the Summer Olympics come calling, before they put in more of these crazy judged sports, I hope they'll consider that one holdover from those 60s and 70s made up games. At least in Ultimate Frisbee there's a score and I know who won and why.

Penny Pinching: Finding That Free Agent Bargain

Scott Weldon — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 07:43:19 -0400

Free agent frenzy has long since died. Most teams have filled their rosters. Some have gorged themselves to the point where they'll be hiding contracts in the AHL or buying out players before the season starts. There are a few teams out there with roster spots still to fill and money yet to spend.

The cream of the free agent crop has been signed. Among the players left are the too old: Roenick, Brisebois, CuJo, McCarty, Chelios, a bunch of former checkers: Guite, Fritsche, Malhotra, Nilson, Dandenault, Hinote, Axelsson, Bonk some youngsters who are yet to pan out: Mitchell, Brule, Pogge, Novotny, Pyatt, Riismiller and some players who for various reasons, physical and otherwise, seem to be done in this league: Bertuzzi, Battaglia, Lang, Comrie, Afinegenov, Bell, Calder, Gauthier, Grier, Isbister, Parrish, and York.

The players left unsigned have to start believing they may not be signed. Brendan Shanahan didn't sign last year until the trade deadline. He might not get picked up at all this year. There are still a lot of players out there who can play hockey and help a team. A smart team in need of help may be able to sign some cheap talent.

I can't quite believe that in a league where Tyler Arnason, Donald Brashear and Steve Begin can get contracts these players aren't signed. These I believe are the best of the remaining free agent players available.

1/ Phil Kessel 70 GP 36 G 24 A 60 P +23 RFA

Phil was a highly touted youngster once thought to be as good as or better then Sidney Crosby. He's a fast,fast skater and has finally grown in to his offensive potential. He had the fourth in points on the Bruins last year and was a key part of the team. Unfortunately for the Bruins he's an RFA on a team that has already spent $3.5 million past the cap.

Boston has managed to sign Krejci, Hunwick and Recchi but they have little room left to fit Kessel in to the mix. Another team should be able to make a 3-4 million dollar offer for this young talented player and lock him up for his prime. The Bruins will have to stick Tukka Rask and Patrice Bergeron in the minors to fit Kessel on their payroll. It might be worth their while to do it.

2/Alex Tanguay 50 GP 16 G 25 A 41 P +13 UFA

Alex, at 30, is not an old player but he's had a history of injury that seems to have put more miles then years on him. He was one of Montreal's best players when he was healthy and the quick playmaker can certainly help a team with room and a quick sniper looking for someone to get him the puck. He can probably be had for much less then the $5 million he made last year.

3/Marc-Andre Beregron 72 GP 14 G 18 A 32 P +5 UFA

Every year, teams are searching for power play specialists and every year Bergeron has to scratch around for a job. He's fast and has a huge shot from the point. When he broke in, in Edmonton fans saw him as the reincarnation of Paul Coffey. Since that time he's been seen as way too small and way too weak in his own zone. However a team looking for a power play point man and a defenceman who skates like the wind could do a lot with Bergeron.

4/ Josh Harding .929 sv pct 2.21 GAA 870 minutes played RFA

Josh replaced Fernandez in Minnesota and, at times, looked like the stronger pair in the tandem with Niklas Backstrom. Last year however Backstrom won the starting job and ran with it. Harding played just over 15 games. He has shown flashes of greatness and should be at worst a great young back-up goalie who could push your starter. He'll be dirt cheap and could end up as a teams starter.

5/ Sergei Zubov 10 gp 0 G 4 A 4 P -4 UFA

Zubov has been one of the best offensive defenceman in the league. He's nearly forty and is coming off hip surgery. He's been injured the last two years. For the nothing it'll cost to sign him you could have a 50-60 point offensive defenceman. You won't be able to play him a ton and he'll always be an injury risk but he gives you more then the comparably aged Matt Schneider, if he can play.

6/ Nik Zherdev 82 GP 23 G 35 A 58 P +6 UFA

The flaky unpredictable Zherdev can't be expected to give a team more then the 58 points and 23 goals he got last year. That being said that's not a horrible second line contribution. He's a depth offensive player but he's still young and played 82 games last year. His only risk is whether he'll try to play next year.

7/ Petr Sykora 76 GP 25 G 21 A 46 P +3 UFA

Petr as a world junior hockey player was one of the best I'd ever seen. Once the other players got as big as him however he was never the same. He had moments as a point a game player in New Jersey but not again. He should be able to supply secondary scoring for a needy team at a bargain price but he'll need players to play with. I'd rate him ahead of Zherdev but he's eight years older. He's stayed healthy his whole career.

8/ Manny Fernandez .910 sv pct 2.59 GAA 1644 minutes played UFA

Manny played a third of the games on a Boston team that gave up a lot of shots. His numbers were still fair. He's a good veteran goalie who will give a team strong starts as a back up for a reasonable price.

9/ Manny Malhotra 77 GP 11 G 24 A 35 P + 9 UFA

Manny was expected to be a successful power forward in the NHL. He's hung on as a checker. He's pushing 30, so he's younger then a lot of those other checkers out there fighting for a job. He's a decent size and a reasonable skater. His offense is nothing great but again it's better then a lot of other checkers provide.

10/ Torrey Mitchell RFA

Torrey broke his leg in two places last year and lost his entire season. He played four playoff games. He's an exceptionally fast skater and still quite young at 24. He has some offensive skills and could be a great pick up if San Jose doesn't retain him.

Gilbert Perreault: The Forgotten Frenchman

Scott Weldon — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:37:25 -0400

Gilbert Perreault came out of junior hockey a year ahead of Guy Lafleur and Marcell Dionne.

He was a year older than those two all-time great French Canadian hockey players. His career has always seemed tied to and overshadowed by one or the other, or both of them. They were always a year younger and yet seemingly better.

That comparison never seemed fair to me.

Gilbert Perreault was one of the greatest hockey players I’ve ever seen play the game. He made plays at speed like Lemieux, but he was faster than him. He was just as fast as Lafleur, but with more control and better puck handling skills. He was as fast as Orr with moves like Beliveau.

He was one of those transcendent players who come along all too rarely. Yet for most of his career and after it was over, he has seemed to be looked at as just another player.

The comparison always seemed to find him wanting. He’s not quite Lafleur, he’s not Dionne, he hasn’t won a cup, he’s talented, but he’s not extraordinary.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

In my estimation, Perreault was one of the all-time greats. When I first heard Howie Morenz’s nickname I imagined he must have looked a lot like Perreault on ice. He must have exploded like he was shot out of a cannon moving at twice the speed of normal men.

However, while I imagined Howie with short, strong, choppy strides eating up distance, Perreault was quick, but smooth like silk. He was speed incarnate with little discernible effort. He deserved a nickname like the "Stratford Streak," the "Road Runner," the "Golden Jet," or the "Rocket", because he was faster than all of them and perhaps not as appreciated as any of them.

The French Connection was a great nickname for a line, but what did Perreault himself get? Gilly?

During his last season in junior league, the 19-year-old had 51 goals and 70 assists in 54 games in the OHA. Pretty impressive, eh?

Yet in that same year, 18-year-old Marcel Dionne had 55 goals and 77 assists in the same number of games. The next year Dionne had 62 and 81 in 46 games.

In 1969-1970, 18-year-old Guy Lafluer had 103 goals and 67 assists in 56 games in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. The next year he had 130 goals and 79 assists in 62 games. He averaged more than two goals a game in major junior hockey.

Already it was hard for Perreault to compete. Whatever he did, whatever he managed, they did it better.

Perreault was a year older, and became Buffalo’s first franchise draft pick. He was the first man taken overall in 1970 amateur draft. Yet somehow the other two still outshone him.

All three broke into the NHL straight out of junior but Gilbert was there a year earlier. He starred for the Buffalo Sabres with almost a point a game his first two seasons, scoring 38 goals as a rookie and breaking the record set by Nels Stewart in the 1920s.

He stepped back to 26 goals and 48 assists in his second season, while playing 76 games. He won the Calder trophy when Lafleur and Dionne weren’t there, but then Dionne made a seamless transition to the big leagues in 71-72 with Detroit.

Dionne managed 28 goals and 49 assists in 78 games. He had bested the year older Perreault by the slightest of margins, again. Lafleur in the high-pressured Montreal market had flopped in his debut as a rookie in 1971-72 with only 29 goals and 35 assists in 73 games playing on the checking line. Yes, the standards have always been crazy high in Montreal.

Then came the 1972 summit series versus the Russians.

In September, before the season started, Perreault and Dionne were invited to the training camp and joined the roster to play in this unprecedented international hockey tournament. They were two out of 38 players chosen to represent their country against the Russians.

The entire tournament was designed to allow Canada and the NHL to reestablish their imagined dominance in world hockey. The Canadians hadn’t won gold at the Olympics since 1952.

The Edmonton Mercurys won the 1951 Canadian Senior Hockey Championship, the Allan Cup, and were the last club team to win the Olympic tournament for Canada. Canada continued to send club teams till 1964. The Trail Smoke Eaters became the last Canadian amateur team to win the world championship in 1961.

Canada felt their amateur teams were forced into an uneven competition with what they saw as basically professional all star teams from beyond the iron curtain. The Canadian club teams now were being embarrassed at international competitions. The IIHF voted to allow Canada to use nine non-NHL pros on its international hockey teams in 1969.

However, Avery Brundage of the IOC and Bunny Ahearne of the IIHF acted to have professionals again excluded from their tournaments.

Canada subsequently opted out of international hockey.

They had been chosen as the first non-European host of the World Hockey Championships and they declined to host the event in 1970.

They missed the Olympics in 1972 and 1976 and didn’t play in the World Championship again until 1977.

The 1972 series was designed to right a world of wrongs. Canada decided to play the Russians outside of any IIHF format flouting Ahearne and the European organization of international hockey. Those Russian players who had trounced Canadian senior champion club teams and the amateur national team would be made to pay for their effrontery.

The arrogance of the NHL was unbounded. They refused to allow stars from the rival WHA, like Bobby Hull and JC Tremblay play in the tournament. This was one of the reasons youngsters like Perreault, Martin, Guevrement, and Dionne were even invited.

The NHL’s hubris was repaid in spades as they lost the first game at home in Montreal 7-3. The Russians were not only too professional for Canadian amateur teams, they were too professional for the NHLers.

The Russians stayed in game shape year-round and worked out all the time. The NHL players had a comparatively relaxed training camp and tended to play themselves into shape during the NHL season. The concept of dry land training was foreign to them. They were skaters not runners.

Desperation set in as another hockey humiliation seemed on the way.

Team Canada coach Harry Sinden made a bevy of substitutions for game two. He changed the goalies, Tony Esposito for Ken Dryden, and he also took out some of the slower skating veterans for younger, faster players who could hopefully keep up with the speedy Russians. He benched the Ratelle-Gilbert-Hadfield line. Don Awrey came out; Serge Savard went in. Substitutions became the order of the day after every game.

Perreault finally got a chance to play in Game Four. He scored a beautiful individual effort goal but the Canadians lost the game 5-3 and were booed off the ice in Vancouver.

The players then travelled to Sweden to play two exhibition games to prepare for the final four games in Moscow. Rats started to desert the sinking ship as Vic Hadfield, Rick Martin, and Jocelyn Guevrement chose to return to Canada and “prepare” for the regular season.

Perreault played again in Game Five, getting an assist, but Canada lost again to the Russians, giving up a 4-1 lead in the third period.

It was then that Perreault, a young, young man, made a decision that I believe marked his career from then on. He chose to follow teammate Martin back to Buffalo. Sinden says in his book Hockey Showdown that he begged Perrault to stay. The others hadn’t and weren’t going to play because their style or ability wouldn’t let them compete with this Russian team.

Marcel Dionne never played and yet received kudos for his willingness to stay, skate with the team, practice with them, and support them in Russia as one of the black aces.

Perreault, Sinden said, was one of the few players he had on the roster like Cournoyer, like Henderson, who could skate with this Russian team.

After Perreault left, Canada managed an unlikely comeback and won the Summit Series, winning the last three games in Moscow. They won the final game on a goal with 34 seconds left after trailing by two going into the third period. The players who left, including Perreault, were pilloried in the Canadian Press and certainly in Sinden’s book on the series. The players who stayed and won were lionized.

I’m not sure if I’d have wanted to be on that team if they’d lost, especially if they were swept in Russia, rather than winning those last three one goal games. But they didn’t lose; they won, and very few people ever forgot the players who abandoned their country’s national team in their moment of crisis.

Perreault came back from the '72 series with a tarnished reputation, but he leapt into the season. On the French Connection line with Richard Martin and Rene Robert he had 88 points in 78 games, leading the Sabres to their first playoff appearance in his third season.

In six playoff games he had 10 points, but the Sabres were ousted by the eventual champion Montreal Canadiens. Perreault was the star of his team, while Lafleur was an under-performing checker with 55 points in 73 games, and eight in 17 in the playoffs.

Dionne had 90 points in 77 games with Detroit but was suffering through the Red Wings Gordie Howe to Stevie Yzerman greatness drought and was apparently not enough on his own to get them in the playoffs.

The next year, Perreault broke his leg and had 55 points in 51 games while the Sabres missed the playoffs.

The season after that, 1974-75, was one of his and Buffalo’s greatest. Perrault finished with 96 points in 68 regular season games, while each member of the French Connection finished in the Top 10 of NHL regular season scoring.

At the same time, though, Dionne was third in the league with the playoffless Wings, just behind Orr and Esposito. He had 47 goals and 74 assists.

Worse for Perrault was the fact that Lafleur had finally gotten his legs under him and finished fourth in scoring. Lafleur had 53 goals and 66 assists in 70 games.

Perreault, in one of his greatest moments, had still somehow slipped behind Lafleur and Dionne again. Eclipsed, you could say.

The Sabres got a bye to the second round where they took out the Chicago Blackhawks in five games. They then faced Lafleur and Les Glourieux in the semifinals. The Sabres won the first two at home 6-5 and 4-2 and then were swamped in Montreal, losing 8-0 and 7-2. They then proceeded to win two close games 5-4 in Buffalo and 4-3 in Montreal.

Lafleur had 19 points in 11 games that playoff year, but Perreault was going to the Stanley Cup Finals versus the Philadelphia Flyers. This was a first for the NHL as two non-original six teams were meeting in the finals for the first time.

He ended that playoff season with six goals and nine assists in 17 games. He tied for fifth in playoff scoring. The finals had a young team, the Sabres, over-matched against the Stanley Cup champion Philadelphia Flyers. Buffalo scored a goal in three losses and were shut out once.

They won the first game in Buffalo, the infamous fog game, 5-4 in overtime. This represented their best effort in the series, in a nadir in ice-making and air conditioning in an NHL hockey rink in May. They managed to win the second game in Buffalo 4-2, but the Flyers at home with Kate Smith, their rabid fans, and intimidating team clobbered them 5-1.

In the last game in Buffalo, Bernie Parent, the Conn Smythe Trophy winner, shut them out. Bobby Clarke had basically shut down the French Connection in the finals and Bernie Parent finished them off.

This Buffalo team was competitive for years after the loss, but Perreault never managed to make it back to the Stanley Cup finals again.

His next year was his best ever, with 113 points in 80 games. He finished third in NHL scoring.

In LA, Dionne made the playoffs but only had 90 points that year. Guy Lafleur had surpassed him though, finishing with 120 points. If it wasn’t one it was the other.

NHL club teams played a series against Russian club teams, Red Army and the Soviet Wings. Buffalo crushed a Soviet Wings team who would or had beat the Islanders, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. Jerry “King Kong” Korab crumpled 1972 Russia-Canada series star Alexander Yakushev with a body check early on and the Soviets never recovered.

This was Perreault’s first opportunity since 1972 to face the Russians and attempt to expunge his international record after the '72 debacle. He had a goal and two assists in a 12-6 win and was all over the Wings as they were outshot 46-22. They couldn’t deal with him or the physical Sabres.

The playoffs that year had the Habs sweep the Flyers for the cup. Buffalo was taken out by the champions in the making, the Dennis Potvin lead, New York Islanders.

That summer the first Canada Cup international hockey series was organized. It was scheduled for what would normally be training camp for NHLers. It was held in the first two weeks in September. The tournament was a round robin involving the USSR, Czechoslovakia, the US, Finland, Sweden, and of course Canada.

This was the first international hockey tournament since 1972, involving the best Canadian hockey players. The WHA had an eight-game tournament with the Russians imitating the original summit series in 1974 and lost. The Russians won four, lost one, and tied three in that series.

The Canada Cup tournament was designed to allow the best Canadian players to play against the best in the world and win. The tournament was held in North American rinks with NHL referees and rules. They also allowed WHA players who had been excluded in 1972, to play. Bobby Hull got his first and last chance to play with the best Canadians in the world against the best players in the world.

Unfortunately, the Russians sent a sub-par team and finished third. Olympic stars from the gold medal Russian team including Kharlamov, Mikhailov, Shadrin, Yakushev, Petrov, and Liapkin did not play.

This was one of the best Canadian international teams ever assembled and I’d say definitively the best defense Canada or anyone has ever put together. You started with a one-legged Bobby Orr with his last gasp of greatness. Add 22-year-old Dennis Potvin fresh off his first James Norris trophy, throw in Larry Robinson, 1972 stalwarts Savard, Lapointe, Carol Vadnais, and Jim Watson, and there was a defense not to be equaled.

The choosing of the MVP for the series came down to a fight between Bobby Orr and Dennis Potvin.

Orr played the single greatest offensive game I’ve ever seen from a defenceman in the first game of the playoffs where Canada demolished Czechoslovakia 6-0. Unfortunately, he could hardly skate in the second playoff game.

Dennis Potvin insisted he was better than Bobby Orr during that series. I’d say for the entire series he was as good as Bobby. He had an unbelievable series. At that point in their two careers they were very comparable.

Offensively, he had nine points like Orr. He skated almost as well as Orr, better when Orr was hurting. He hit players and went through them like he was made of some better, denser material. He was a complete defenceman and at his young best in this series. Potvin was a Scott Stevens-Bobby Orr amalgam in that series and during his career. He was mean as Messier and had talent to burn.

Yet for me at the time, and then watching the games 20 years later on DVD, the best player on the Canadian team was Perreault.

He ended the series with eight points, four goals, and four assists, one behind Orr and Potvin. Those certainly weren’t dominating numbers in seven games. He didn’t score the overtime winner in the final game like Sittler did. It wasn’t his last kick at the can like it was for Hull or Orr so he wasn’t by a long stretch the sentimental favourite. Starting with the 11-3 roll up of the Finns, though, he played like a dispossessed man in search of redemption.

He created chances every time he was on the ice. He made three or four end-to-end rushes every game. He’d cut though entire teams of players and no other team on earth could deal with him.

The Swedes with Borje Salming couldn’t stop him. The quick skating Russians and the tight-checking Czechs could not deal with his speed and ability. He was always a force whenever he was on the ice.

In a lineup with Shutt and Lafleur, Hull and Dionne, Clarke and Esposito, Gainey and Leach, and Pete Mahovlich and Darryl Sittler, he was head and shoulders above the rest.

I think in the need to give Bobby Orr one more award and with the push back from the young and fabulously talented Potvin, Perreault was lost in the shuffle. Another four points and his performance probably would have been acknowledged for the great dominating effort it was.

He played that series like a force of nature creating chances wherever he went. I’ve rarely seen anyone who looked so good. In contrast, Lafleur and Dionne weren’t even noticed at that tournament.

The Sabres made the playoffs for 11 straight years during his time there. Perreault was a point-a-game player and team leader for that time. They missed the first two years of his career, the last two, and 1973-74, when he broke his leg. They were 9-12 in series with Perreault and 44-49 in games, good but not great.

His team was a force to be reckoned with every year, but other teams that were great handled his team in the playoffs. The Flyers, Bruins, and Nordiques beat them twice. The Islanders beat them in all three series they played. Buffalo did take out their other big rival Montreal and Lafleur two times out of three, but the one time Montreal beat Buffalo they won a cup. Not so for the Sabres.

Buffalo led the east in 1979-80 and Perreault finished fourth in league, scoring behind a young Wayne Gretzky and—you guessed it—Marcel Dionne and Guy Lafleur. They won a best of five series with Vancouver and then swept the Blackhawks.

They lost to the eventual champions, the New York Islanders. Perreault had an unbelievable playoff with 10 goals and 11 assists in 14 games but it wasn’t enough.

Perreault was injured for part of the 1980-81 season playing, 56 games and getting 59 points. In two playoff series he had 12 points in eight games. He was chosen for the 1981 Canada Cup team and put on the first line with Wayne Gretzky and Guy Lafleur. This was to be his moment of complete redemption.

He was at the top of his game and acknowledged for it. He was the first string center on the first line of the Canadian national hockey team.

He played an incredible four games in the tournament with nine points. Playing with Lafleur and Gretzky gave him linemates who would finish his rushes with goals. He skated with them effortlessly and that line generated most of the team’s offense.

He was again rushing end to end and Gretzky and Lafleur scrambled to keep up. Perreault was ready to lead Canada to international hockey victory and be accorded the MVP honours he missed out on in 1976.

Then in the fourth game of the tournament, Gretzky dove to draw a penalty against the Swedes and rolled up Perreault’s ankle, breaking it. Though Gilbert was out of the tournament, Canada still seemed destined for victory.

They crushed the Soviets 7-3 without Perreault to end the round robin and then beat the US 4-1 in the semifinal.

Unfortunately, the Canadian team without Perreault could generate no offense in the final against the Soviets. The green unit shredded Liut in the final and handed Canada one of their worst international hockey defeats of all time, an 8-1 thrashing. It would be little solace to Perreault that he was chosen as the tournament first all-star center.

That was his last crack at international play. He had 90 points in 73 games in 1983-84 but his game was faltering and his blistering speed failing. He was not chosen to be on the victorious 1984 Canada Cup team.

His career began to wind down.

He played 20 games in 1986-87 in order to insure he got the best pension possible. He had 16 points in those 20 games.

Perreault retired as the sixth leading scorer in NHL history. He had 512 goals and 814 assists in 1191 games. He had another 103 points in 90 playoff gamers. He never scored 50 goals. He never won a Stanley Cup or an Art Ross Trophy or a Hart trophy or a Conn Smythe.

He won a Canada Cup and should have been MVP of it but he wasn’t. He perhaps could have won a second and been MVP if Wayne Gretzky hadn’t rolled over his ankle.

Guy Lafleur had 560 goals and 793 assists in 1127 games. His playoff record was significantly better. Lafleur had 58 goals and 76 assists in 128 games. He scored 50 goals six times and 60 once. He had more than 120 points five years in a row and he won three scoring trophies, two MVP awards, and one Conn Smythe.

Dionne had the best career stats of the trio, finishing with 731 goals and 1040 assists in 1348 games. He’s fifth all-time for points scored in the NHL now. He also scored 50 goals six times. He won one scoring title, tying with Gretzky.

When I saw these three players playing together on the international stage against the best players in the world, however, Perreault was the best of the bunch.

Dionne rarely got to play internationally, and he never really excelled. Lafleur had good and bad moments and generally did well internationally, but Perreault was faster than Lafleur and better with the puck at speed. Lafleur had a great shot and played on better teams, but I’d say Gilbert Perreault was a better hockey player than either one and perhaps deserves more consideration than he gets when the greatest of all time are spoken of.

He was one of the best skaters I’ve ever seen, certainly in a class with or above Lafleur in his prime, a young Gretzky, and an old Bobby Orr. He was better with the puck than Lafleur and on his own was one of the most dominant one-on-one players I’ve ever seen, again like Orr, mostly because of his speed.

He couldn’t finish like Lafleur, but give him a finisher and he’d create goals out of nothing. He was a typhoon of a player who skated like the wind and made plays like a Lemieux or a Beliveau but at a higher tempo. He lacked their size and was perhaps not quite the stickhandler that either of these two were, but he was close and he was doing it all faster.

People became disappointed when there was a game where he didn’t rush end to end. Fans in Buffalo probably didn’t realize that was a very rare occurrence in most NHL cities because Gilbert Perreault spoiled them.

From the very start of his career almost till the end, he could do things only a handful of NHL players were ever able to do and he did it internationally against the best players in the world.

In 1972, '76, and in '81 he was one of the few Canadians who not only skated with the best of the rest of the world but, like Paul Coffey, he skated past them.

The Hockey News put out a list of the top NHL players of all time in 1998. On that list Lafleur was No. 11, Dionne was No. 38, and Gilbert Perreault was No. 47. These lists are always tough and you tend to end up measuring a variety of factors that include success for his team and goals, points, length of career.

Of the three, Dionne had the best career. He’s fifth all time in points.

Lafleur played on the best teams and won five Stanley cups. He was league MVP twice, playoff MVP once, and won three scoring titles.

Perreault did none of those things. He never finished first in anything personally or with his team.

Yet when these players played side by side against the same opposition, Perreault was the most talented of the bunch. He dwarfed Dionne in international tournaments and I believe deserves to be counted ahead of him when the greatest players are numbered. It’s hard to argue with Lafleur’s successes and impossible to separate out how much was his doing and how much the teams.

I believe 11th greatest player of all-time is a little high for Lafleur, and 47th for Perreault is much too low. I believe Gilbert Perreault was actually a more talented player than Lafleur. He could do more things better than Guy did.

I’d certainly like to see Gilbert Perreault considered among the top 25 players of all time. I’d hate to see a man of his talent and spectacular ability simply be forgotten to time, as he slowly works his way down the list and out of the top 100.

He was one of the most talented players I've ever had the pleasure of watching. Along with Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux, Esposito, Henderson, and Yzerman, he was one of the greatest players who ever skated internationally for Canada.

Vive Gilbert Perreault.

Stanley Cup Playoffs: A Grande Finale Indeed!

Scott Weldon — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 06:39:29 -0400

The Penguins managed to win the Stanley Cup against the odds on favourite. After getting swamped 5—0 in game five, they won two tight, critical games against a suddenly tired looking Detroit Red Wings team. The defence without Ryan Whitney looked tight. The perpetually bow string tight Marc Andre Fleury made all the saves he needed to make. Maxime Talbot scored the two goals and the Pens won the last game 2—1.

A great playoff year culminated in a wonderful seven game final series. Detroit caught a seven game series earlier against the Anaheim Ducks and looked like they could not lose. Any time I watched them in that series (and maybe I was just projecting) they played with confidence in their own inevitability. I never for an instant thought they were going to lose that series. Now and then Ryan Getzlaf took over the flow of the game but as soon as he was off the ice Detroit was in charge again. In those last two games against Pittsburgh the feeling of inevitability was gone. The juggernaut was stalled and couldn't score. Pittsburgh kept former Cup finals stars like Johan Franzen and Tomas Holmstrom under wraps.

Injured Pavel Datsyuk came back and managed to help Detroit show the dominance we've come to expect from them in game five. After that, no one could put the puck in the net. Zetterburg led the team in chances but with nothing to show. This year it wasn't Detroit's role players, the Drapers, the Hudlers, the Filpullas, who scored the needed goal. It was Pittsburgh's role players who came through.

Detroit by the end looked battered and, dare I say it, a bit old. They spent so much time worrying about having Crosby covered with Zetterburg, Lidstrom and Raflaski that there was no one left for Malkin and certainly no set lines to try to generate offense with.

Marian Hossa completely paid his karmic debt though he might still take a little hit in the pocket book this year. This was certainly the moment for him to score two or three goals and win the cup for his new team. He won't be playing for Detroit next year and he didn't shine up his playoff credentials.

Detroit will have to move on next year without Hossa, Samuelsson and Hudler. Their cap problems might require them to assign Draper and Holmstrom to the minors or perhaps to trade Brad Stuart to make up some cap room. Pittsburgh has Crosby and Malkin to build around but they also have $46.8 million counting against the cap and nine roster spots to fill. They need a couple NHL defenceman and, after they sign Guerin and Garon, they're might not be much money left.

It was a great Stanley Cup finals and both teams will be competetive again next year. Congratulations Pittsburgh and great effort Detroit. It was fun to watch

Stanley Cup Finals: Grande Finale ou Coup de Grace?

Scott Weldon — Thu, 28 May 2009 08:30:58 -0400

This has been a great playoff year. It's the best I can remember in quite some time. My memory is admittedly suspect, but I believe a lot of what's happened this year in the playoffs highlights the things that are right with the NHL.

There have been marquee match-ups. Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia, Pittsburgh vs Washington, well really Pittsburgh vs anyone, they're just great to watch. There was Montreal-Boston and Chicago-Detroit for the original six fetishists.

The old champions the Anaheim Ducks managed to take the new champions to seven games and lost by a goal in an old time classic series.

There have been unexpectedly good series. Carolina and New Jersey were back and forth 'til the last two minutes where Carolina finally finished them with two goals to come from behind. Washington and New York had an incredibly tight series and if Boudreau hadn't gone with Varlamov in game two we might never have seen Pittsburgh-Washington.

Boston came back from a 3-1 deficit with Carolina and almost won game seven in overtime. Pittsburgh came back from a 3-0 deficit against the Flyers in game six to close them out. In the Washington series, the team that scored first went 2-5.

Those games had flow. The young Blackhawks in Chicago spent two series spotting team's leads and then coming back on them in a flood. This technique was less effective against the red wings but made for exciting hockey while it lasted.

There were great player matchups: Chara vs Staal, Staal vs Staal, Crosby vs Ovechkin, Malkin vs Ovechkin, Malkin vs Crosby?, Richards vs Malkin, Brodeur vs Ward, Lundquist vs the caps, Getzlaf vs Lidstrom, Pronger vs Thornton.

There have been players who've tried courageously to battle past injuries, Gonchar on his one leg and Havlat with his concussion are the two most obvious examples.

There have been a bunch of happy stories. St Louis made the playoffs after a long hiatus. Columbus made the playoffs for the first time ever. Boston won a round and was within a goal of the eastern final.

They look to have finally put together a team that can compete for a while. Pittsburgh and Detroit both missed out on the post Stanley Cup run depression that has plagued teams in the recent past. Carolina had a long playoff run that let them make money for a change. Washington is still fun to watch. Chicago showed us that youth and talent can win.

The biggest message I got out of these playoffs was speed kills. If you can't skate you're done.

It was a fun playoff year. Then the eastern and western finals happened and the cream seemed to have risen. Pittsburgh swamped the suddenly outmatched Hurricanes in a quick painful sweep.

Detroit repressed the seemingly irrepressible Blackhawks. I was hoping for a seven game back and forth Spring Classic. We got an experienced team handling a young team in every aspect of the game. This was unfortunate and not a little disappointing.

Now we come to a Stanley Cup final rematch. This the first time this has happened in the NHL, and it makes me feel old to type this, in 25 years. The Oilers beat the experienced Islanders in the rematch when the Islanders were trying to win their fifth cup in a row.

That Stanley Cup signalled a changing of the guard as the Islanders faded and the Oilers became the new power in the NHL.

Are we ready to experience a classic watershed moment like that or is Detroit merely going to apply the finishing touch to an over-matched team of youngsters in Pittsburgh?

The rosters on both teams are similar to what they were last year. Unfortunately the victorious Detroit Red Wings signed away the third best player from the losing Penguins when they got Marian Hossa in free agency.

During the finals last year when Malkin went missing Hossa was Pittsburgh's second best player. Couple that with the trade of Whitney to Anaheim and Gonchar's bad leg and I don't see how this Pittsburgh team can be better then the team that went to the finals last year and was dominated by these Detroit Red Wings.

Yet I believe they are a better team. Marc Andre Fleury has always seemed too high strung to me for big events. The world junior championships, the Stanley Cup playoffs always seemed to get him too wired to perform.

He's been better in the playoffs this year then last. If he can calm himself down I think he'll be better in this final as well. The defense with the loss of Whitney is worse then it was last year and slower. Boucher has been a good experienced replacement.

Letang's offensive skills seem to have improved while Gonchar was hurt during the regular season so that's been a bonus. Gonchar has been playing on one leg. He needs to stay healthy and upright.

Orpick is a good tough defenceman. Eaton, Scuderi, and Gill will be hard-pressed to keep Detroit under wraps. The real improvement in Pittsburgh is on the offense. Are Guerin, Satan and Kunitz better then Sykora, Malone and Hossa? Well no.

But Malkin and Crosby have made a quantum leap forward. They both have made huge strides because they're a year older and because of the experience they had last year. I can't believe Malkin will disappear like he did in last year's final.

This Pittsburgh team is unlikely to get shut-out in the first two games like last years team did. Pittsburgh also has one of the leagues better shut-down lines with Cooke, Staal and Talbot or Kennedy and while Detroit has a depth that can't be shut-down they should make it hard for one line to score.

Detroit is better then the team that won the cup last year as well. I've contended all along that having Osgood in nets is like playing with one arm tied behind your back. That's proven unfair.

Osgood hasn't been the handicap I expected. He's always making the first stop. His glove has been quick and he isn't giving up the demoralizing soft goals that'll undermine a team.

Detroit has insisted on playing with other handicaps though. Holmstrom hasn't been scoring. Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Rafalski and Draper are hurt and still they win. If it's not Zetterburg and Franzen, it's Cleary and Samuellson, it's Hossa and Filpuula. There is always someone to fill in.

Hudler or Helm could have a great Stanley Cup final. Stuart and Lebda have picked it up when Rafalski and Lidstrom have been out. Helm and Leino look like NHL players. This team in the end is too fast, too experienced, and too ready to pay the price to win. They were tough enough to get past Anaheim.

If Chelios and Beech have to play, a lot things could get dicey for them, but I still believe in the end Detroit wins it.

Detroit has too much for an improved Pittsburgh team to deal with. I believe the series will be better then last years mostly because of the experience Pittsburgh gained and the improvements Malkin and Crosby have made to their game.

A couple more top end offensive talents for them to feed to, akin to a Kurri or an Anderson and this Pittsburgh team might start to resemble the 1984 Oilers a little bit more. This year though I'm going to have to say this will be a more competitive

Red Wings in six.

Prediction: Detroit in six

Record so far: 11-3

Coyote Ugly: Bankruptcy in the Desert

Scott Weldon — Fri, 22 May 2009 07:55:43 -0400

The NHL is in huge financial distress and the Coyotes of Phoenix are the tip of the iceberg.

After months of obfuscation the NHL has finally admitted there are problems in Phoenix. They had to lie for months and had to say the team won’t move to have any chance of retaining some sort of ticket base.

I wonder how many season ticket renewals they have right now. A hundred? The Montreal Expos had their ticket base eroded by, well, always letting their players leave, and because of the constant rumours that the franchise was on the move.

The Montreal fans can be loyal but they expect loyalty in return which isn’t really a staple in professional sports. Teams in the major sports push for that loyalty to flow one way, always to them.

Al Davis to my mind settled the question of whether or not leagues can decide where owners put or move their franchises. His 1980 antitrust suit came after all the NFL teams voted (with five abstentions) against his moving from Oakland to LA.

The NFL lost it’s legal right to control where team owners put their franchises in the subsequent lawsuit.

The Boys and Girls in the various professional sports leagues like to get together and agree on where franchises should and should not go but that agreement is not legally enforceable.

Really, if the NHL wants to keep Phoenix from being moved they need to keep Balsillie out of the club. Once he gets in it’s over. It cost the NFL $20 million in damages and $40 million in legal costs in 1981. I’m thinking lawyers rates for billable hours have gone up since then.

The league’s attempt to block the Raider’s move was found to have violated Federal Anti-Trust law. The Supreme Court refused to hear the NFL’s appeal. The NFL paid their money and have left Mr Davis alone to make his own rules and franchise moves ever since.

His eventual plan to move back to Oakland didn’t raise even a murmur from the commissioners office.

The Al Davis lesson wasn’t lost on the NFL. Moving,or threatening to move your franchise is a lucrative business. He got into a bigger stadium in LA and had 150 luxury boxes built for him. Whenever things didn’t go his way he’d threaten to move the team again and politicians, local and state, would cave and offer concessions.

Eventually they stopped negotiating and in 1995 Al moved back to Oakland. He got a 16 year lease agreement, a $32 million loan and $10 million for the construction of a practice facility for what the price of some moving vans? A $70 million bond issue was approved by Oakland City Council to build Al 9,000 more club seats and 175 luxury suites.

The city Al Davis abandoned in 1982 was paying to get him back in 1995. The NFL meekly watched as he moved back. There was no lawsuit this time. They watched and they learned. The threat to move provides a lever in negotiations that sports franchises didn’t used to have.

On Mar. 28, 1984, in the middle of the night, the Baltimore Colts packed up and moved to Indianapolis. Irsay accepted a deal with them and rushed his team out of town from fear that the state of Maryland was going to expropriate the Colts after failed, bitter negotiations.

In 1995, Art Modell attempted to extort money from the City of Cleveland for his pro-football franchise. The city had built a stadium for the Indians and an arena for the Cavaliers so apparently he was being cheated out of what was rightfully his, a free stadium at public expense.

He moved his team to the abandoned and chastened Baltimore market. His team became the popular Ravens and they were treated as Modell was sure he deserved. He got a 30 year rent free lease on a $200 million stadium.

In 1995, the league approved a move by the Houston Oilers to Nashville. Was this because Houston is a horrible football market? Oh no, it’s because of $292 million worth of concessions Nashville was ready to give up.

Now when the NFL wanted to expand, they had proven football markets in Cleveland and Houston that were devoid of teams. Anxious fans and state and civic governments that have learned their precious NFL franchise can be stolen away without a moments notice in the dead of night tripped over themselves to allow new owners in.

New owners were pleased to pay top dollar for expansion franchises in proven football markets with locals who had been properly tenderized by the loss of their franchises. It’s win-win for the NFL.

Any money the teams need approved by referendum to build something nice and big and expensive for the multi-millionaire owner that the poor average tax payer won’t be able to afford to sit in ,is approved immediately.

The NHL learned as well. The threat to move the former Stanley Cup winning Pittsburgh franchise is what they used to finally get a new arena funded and started. Jim Balsillie was in some ways used as the paper tiger there. Here comes the evil billionaire Canadian to steal your team.

Do something about it. Egos became engaged and ground broke in August of 2008. The Consol Energy Center is supposed to be ready for the 2010-11 hockey season.

Charles Wang has been trying to use the threat of a move to Kansas City to get a new arena built on the Island. You can’t blame him because the old arena is horrible. He is losing money. It’s not the NFL where the owner of the Oilers felt that Houston didn’t earn ”enough” money.

The NHL often isn’t earning any money at all in it’s markets. Like the NFL it tries to use the threat to move franchises to get what it wants. Unlike the NFL, a lot of Americans don’t feel they need an NHL franchise like they need an NFL franchise so the leverage isn’t as great. Still it’s the leverage they have and NHL works with it.

They seem to have appropriated the right to threaten and to move that Al Davis won in his anti-trust suit. But of course every professional sports owner has the right to move his franchise wherever he wants. It’s a free enterprise thing.

If your team is going to fail in it’s market there’s a much more legitimate argument to be made for moving it. Football was not going to fail in Baltimore or Cleveland or Houston, even if your team owner is a complete moron.

They just weren’t going to make quite as much money as the owners would have liked, but hockey could fail in a lot of those southern US markets. There are still a few, a very few markets, mostly in Canada where hockey can survive if not prosper.

There are sound fiscal reasons for moving some hockey franchises around. The question is who gets to move the franchises and where.

A smarter Jim Balsillie would have told the NHL whatever it wanted to hear, gotten ownership of a franchise, say the Nashville Predators, and then moved it. The only restrictions on that movement would be as a result of whatever lease a particular team has and what contractual obligations a team or owner have made themselves subject to.

New owners may be obliged to sign a contract to join the NHL in which case they might be due to incur whatever penalties were spelled out in the contract for non-compliance with various NHL bylaws. The NHL though can’t, in law, control where an owner of a franchise wants to move his team.

The NHL wants to complain that Balsillie can’t move into the southern Ontario market because they had it slotted for some problematical, theoretical future fantasy expansion franchise. They’ve ignored this region since the 20’s. The Quebec Bulldogs went under and were sold by the NHL to Hamilton interests 1920.

They kept a team there from 1920-25 until the players revolted over the increased NHL schedule. The team was sold to boot-legger Bill Dwyer and became the New York Americans.

Since then, this theoretically fertile field has lain fallow. The southern Ontario market has been ignored or abused by the Toronto Maple Leafs and the NHL has never shown any inclination to do anything about it.

Until, of course, a billionaire comes along and says, you know, I can make money on hockey in Southern Ontario. Duh! Suddenly the NHL had a secret plan all along to expand there that this damn upstart is messing up.

I’m sorry it’s a little late for the dog in the manger to start barking. I’m thinking 84 years was plenty of time, even for the NHL, to put a franchise in Hamilton.

Since the second six in 1967, they went to: Ottawa, Atlanta—twice, Tampa Bay, San Jose, Dallas, Cleveland, Washington, the island, Kansas City, Colorado twice, Raleigh, Miami, Columbus, St. Paul, Hartford, Anaheim, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Buffalo, New Jersey, and Phoenix.

That’s 42 years and 24 cities. None of those franchises, the successful and the less so, had access to as big a hockey fan market as Hamilton would. Yet expansion after expansion, team move after move, always the southern Ontario market was ignored.

It’s a little late now to claim it as your own. We don’t want to use it but we certainly don’t want anyone else to service this market.

The NHL has serious problems. The problems are financial. They’re losing the propaganda war and the fiscal war. The hockey market in the Southern US that they’ve pinned their hopes on has mostly failed to appear.

San Jose, Anaheim, Colorado, Raleigh, and Dallas seemed to currently be succeeding as hockey markets though Hicks’ attempt to sell the Stars and Colorado’s first experience with a bad team may tell a different story soon.

Tampa Bay and Florida have had moments of success. I’d like to think there was a possibility, with good management of success down there, but Florida seems to be a bargain market.

That’s not a good spot to try to sell top end sports entertainment that’s not football. Carolina’s three big playoff runs and their Stanley Cup have given them a fan base. One bad season seems to deflate that tire.

They were having trouble getting 8,000 a game last year, but they look good now. I always thought there was some good will left in Atlanta from the Flames first, not entirely unsuccessful run, but the Thrashers made some horrible short term talent decisions that have left them among the worst teams in the league.

They are in jeopardy of losing their “star” and once they do there’s no reason to watch that team. Columbus is looking good. Yankee markets seem to do better then confederate ones with hockey and after a long climb they’ve put together a young talented roster. I wish them all good things.

Nashville never made any sense. No snow birds, no ice, just country music and NASCAR. It’s a disaster. Phoenix at least had snow birds and still there’s no one at those games except Calgary and Vancouver fans and that’s too long a commute to work.

The national TV contract that this cross US coverage was supposed to generate has not appeared.

What can be done?

The NHL needs to realize there are very few untapped successful hockey markets out there. Southern Ontario is one. Winnipeg or Quebec City may be two others. Toronto could—but won’t—carry another team. If you had an arena, you might sneak a team in Seattle. Kansas City doesn’t have a market but it has an arena.

Gangsters who aren’t worrying about losing money could put an arena and a team in Las Vegas. That’s it. Winnipeg, Vegas, Kansas City, and Quebec City probably would lose money, Vegas would lose boatloads. The real problem is despite how few hockey markets are left there are even fewer people or corporations out there who want to buy a hockey team.

Jim Balsillie is the only guy in the past five years who actually has money who wants to buy a team. The NHL trots out a paper tiger every year or so, but this guy is the only one who’s turned out to be real. Unfortunately for the NHL, he’s a smart billionaire. He wants to buy a team in a market that will make money.

The Hamilton Bulldogs or Tigers or Steelheads or Burghers will make money. All the stupid billionaires are now apparently stupid multi-millionaires and have learned that buying a hockey team in the southern US is like building their bank vault on a sink hole.

Multi-millionaires can’t afford to lose $20-40 million a year. You can lose a billion dollars doing that in 50 years.

Hell, Phoenix will do it in 25. Are you going to sell your franchise for $2 billion in 2050? Maybe, but I don’t think so and with credit contraction a lot of these guys need to sell their franchise now. They won’t be around in 2050 or 2020 for that matter. The time has come to stop the bleeding.

The really stupid billionaires have already bought their southern US NHL hockey team. There’s no one left with a billion dollars who can read a newspaper who will buy a team.

The NHL needs to stabilize things. They’ve tried to do it with a positive attitude and wishful thinking. That’s played out. Balsillie and the Hamilton market lets them start to do something concrete.

NHL expansion is an illusion that they need to stop chasing. Until they get this league stabilized the last thing they need is two more money losing franchises. Bankruptcy lets the Phoenix Coyotes out of their lease.

The NHL needs to vote to allow Balsillie to move the team to Hamilton. This lets them maintain the illusion of control on franchise movement. No one wants to see a mad scramble that ends up with 23 NHL teams in Ontario’s golden triangle, well except for a couple guys in Waterloo.

The NHL needs to be able control where franchises are and where they go. Once Balsillie is in the market he wants to be in he’ll go along and play puck with the other owners. They need to reassert league and franchise stability and clinging to this loser in Phoenix won’t do it.

Balsillie then pays Moyes his $212 million for his valueless franchise. Suddenly owners around the league can say, thank goodness, my franchise is worth something. Billionaires on the outside can see that the worst NHL franchise realized $212 million dollars, maybe $150 million or so for an existing NHL team isn’t insane.

The move to Hamilton makes southern Ontario hockey fans happy and ticks off the 112 Coyote season ticket holders. I call that a win. This franchise stops draining $40 million a year from the NHL coffers (hmm those NHL franchise fees don’t look so great now) and probably within a year or two is contributing $20-30 million dollars to the NHL as a whole.

That’s an extra $70 million a year to the league as a whole. That’s good right? They need to accept the inevitable and get on board and try to steer it. Fighting it gets you an antitrust lawsuit that they can’t win. As I said before, lawyers' billable hour rates have ballooned since the '80s.

The NBA, MLB, and NFL are all behind you but I don’t see them picking up your court costs. They chase Balsillie away and he leaves them with a bleeding wound in phoenix and no one else to patch it.

The NHL then can use their now more credible threat of a team move to hopefully get the Islanders a new building. Once Wang gets his Lighthouse project moving he should be happy.

A better building and hopefully better team management let the Islanders finally put a decent home grown team on the ice. If they don’t become a money making venture at least they stop losing $23 million a year.

Pittsburgh when they move in to their new building should start contributing a lot more to the NHL bottom line. Tampa Bay is another horror spot. The new owners tried to finance this team purchase in the middle of the worst credit crisis in 90 years.

They have little money, little income and a team that is constantly rumoured to be shopping their best players. They have a good building, a cup, some history, and a core of a team.

Maybe after Balsillie, Wang, and Lemieux and company have added value to their franchises someone with real money will come in and break even in Tampa Bay. Hicks in Dallas is another big problem. His personal financial crisis has left him wanting to sell and there’s no one left to buy an NHL franchise.

Theoretically Dallas was making some money though perhaps next year not so much. Playoff dates saved the teams bottom line the year before and lack thereof crucified them this year.

Nashville also is in a bind so maybe they can be shuffled off to the rink in Kansas City. Florida and Atlanta are in trouble too and once the owners in Atlanta stop fighting each other they’re likely going to sell the team.

It would be nice if by the time that happens there’s a smart billionaire out there who can see an NHL team as a reasonable investment. Before that happens Bettman needs to get Balsillie in the tent and some money flowing in from Hamilton and the Island. Phoenix needs to be let go.

If this doesn’t happen I see a scenario dotted with contraction and bankruptcy. Not all of Florida, Nashville, Atlanta, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, The New York Islanders, and Dallas will survive. There were empty seats in Boston at the start of the year and Detroit has had trouble filling their building.

Some future illusory expansion to Hamilton is a pipe dream at best. Fix what you can NHL and hope you can build some momentum that brings a buyer or two back for an NHL franchise.

Maybe there is a US national TV contract for and NHL full of relatively solvent teams all trying to put a watchable exciting product on the ice. They let Balsillie go and it’s just going to get uglier then it already is.

Spring Classic: Division Finals

Scott Weldon — Fri, 15 May 2009 14:05:46 -0400

While I was watching the Winter Classic on New Year's Day and Detroit and Chicago played that beautifully executed up-tempo back and forth hockey game, all I could think was wouldn't this make a great Western Final. Well, spring has come and here we are.

The Detroit Red Wings calmly finished off the Mighty Anaheim Ducks in a toughly contested but brutally officiated game seven. Now they meet the Blackhawks in the Western final.

The Bruins couldn't manage to beat what I can only say is a mediocre-looking Carolina team. The Bruins looked nervous last night. They were a couple of defencemen shy and couldn't seem to put the Hurricanes away.

Carolina got a great series out of Cam Ward, and Eric Staal. Chad Larose, Seidenberg and Joe Corvo were all strong. There didn't seem to be much else in that line-up worth talking about.

Mr. Cheapshot managed to get himself a game-winning goal. Hopefully, that takes the edge off for him. It's unfortunate that this Bruins team couldn't have played better. They seemed to deserve a better fate.

Pittsburgh managed to clobber Washington in their game seven, while Chicago out-talented a scrappy Vancouver team.

This has been one of the better sets of playoff series that I've seen in recent years. Hopefully this continues into the next round.

Western Final: Chicago Blackhawks vs Detroit Red Wings

This Original Six match up looks to be a great one. Detroit beat Chicago four games to two in the regular season, losing the last games, a back-to-back series in April.

The Red Wings have Kopecky out. Rafalski is just back from injury. Lilja is still nursing a concussion. Chicago has come through healthy, and they've had an easier path then Detroit.

Chris Osgood had some scary moments in last night's game seven. He is the worst statistical goalie left in the playoffs by far. Chicago's deep and mobile offence could highlight his weakness.

The Red Wings managed to win their tough series with Anaheim with Osgood between the pipes.

It's a little like winning a fight with one arm tied behind your back. Detroit is so good and so responsible defensively they could afford the handicap. Khabibulin is much better in nets then Osgood.

Chicago doesn't have the overwhelming talent of a Getzlaf to break down the Detroit defence. They're going to depend on an attack in depth to do that.

If Rafalski is really healthy then Detroit has their big three back and they're ready to roll defensively. Stuart has been solid for them.

Their offense has struggled with some players shut down but Detroit like Chicago has that talented depth. When Datsyuk isn't hitting, Franzen picks it up.

I believe this is the series where Chicago's youth finally begins to count against them. This Detroit team has won Cups and knows what it takes.

I'm hoping this series goes seven and is one for the decade. There are tons of talent on both sides.

Chicago's slightly higher risk defence is balanced by their superior goaltending. In the end it comes down to experience and I'm taking Detroit in seven.

DETROIT IN 7

Eastern Final: Carolina Hurricanes vs Pittsburgh Penguins

From the beginning of the playoffs, I thought the Eastern final would have the winner of the Pittsburgh-Philadelphia series finishing off Boston.

Well, I ran with Philadelphia and now Boston is gone too, but I still think the Pittsburgh-Philadelphia winner makes it to the Stanley Cup.

Carolina has superior goaltending, their defence has been steady, and Eric Staal has been unbelievable.

Unfortunately, one line teams tend to get bounced in the playoffs. Usually, it happens much earlier then this.

Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke will sit on Eric all series. No one else on Carolina has shown any inclination to score. Pittsburgh has two strong scoring lines lead by two of the best players left in the playoffs, Crosby and Malkin.

An injured Gonchar and Letang are still better on the point then one Joe Corvo. Boucher is a nice veteran presence to be able to substitute in.

Marc-Andre' Fleury after looking like he had his game together is again starting to self destruct as the games get more important. He's wired too tight for the playoffs.

The goal he gave up in the game seven blow-out was incomprehensible. It only gets worse from here.

Fleury may make it close but I don't believe this Carolina team can score with Pittsburgh and even if they manage to, they won't stop Crosby and Malkin.

Pittsburgh in 6

Record so far:

1st round: 6-2

2nd Round: 3-1

NHL Goaltenders in the Spotlight as the Second Round Begins

Scott Weldon — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 07:40:53 -0400

Good goaltending is critical to success in hockey.

The analogy is that it's like pitching in baseball. Close enough, I figure.

This all gets magnified in the playoffs. Goaltenders have often carried unworthy teams further then they deserved to go.

Olaf Kolzig dragged the '97-98 Capitals into the Stanley Cup Finals against the Dteroit Red Wings. Dominic Hasek took the unworthy Buffalo Sabres in to the finals in the next year, and took the Czechs to gold in the 1998 Nagano Olympics.

The 1972-73 Montreal Canadiens, with Ken Dryden in net, were the dominant Stanley Cup champion. The next year, when Dryden held out and spent the year as an article clerk and working for Ralph Nader, the Canadiens lost in the first round. Goaltending is important.

This year, things have mostly gone according to form in the first round.

Goalies Luongo, Khabibulin, Thomas, Ward, and Hiller proved to be better then their opposite numbers Chris Mason, Kiprusoff, Price, Brodeur, and Nabokov. That's not the whole story—though in Anaheim that was probably a good part of it.

Still, it helps to get better goaltending then your opponent. Bad goaltending is demoralizing. Players are left feeling that no matter what they do, their goalie is going to give up a soft one and blow it for them.

The Detroit-Columbus series seemed to go against form. Steve Mason is three times the goalie Osgood is, but Detroit can't be beaten. They could have played with a bricked up net and Detroit still would have pushed enough goals in to win.

The Rangers had a mismatch going in net,s with Henrik Lundquist versus Jose Theodore. I think if Varlamov hadn't been brought in and hadn't been able to supply competent goaltending, Washington could have lost in a hurry.

The Philadelphia-Pittsburgh matchup in nets was pretty even so it came down to Crosby and Malkin not being denied. So you can't just follow the goalie—but they're important.

How does the second round look?

East

Carolina vs. Boston

Carolina eked out a last-minute victory over the New Jersey Devils. Eric Staal and his line had a great series. The defense and goaltending was enough to barely contain the Devils' big scorers. Boston will sit on that one line with Chara, Lucic, Thornton, and Yelle.

I can’t see Carolina winning an away game in this series. Boston has the better goaltending, and three lines who can score. After Eric Staal and Ray Whitney, the Hurricanes have Eric Cole and Sergei Samsonov—who both looked mostly disinterested in Game Seven.

Joe Corvo is the power-play quarterback Ottawa still wishes they had. Rod Brind'Amour just isn’t the player he was before he got hurt last year. He’s almost forty and this may be the end for him.

Boston has the better the goalie, the better offense, and the better defense. Hmm...what does that leave

Prediciton: Boston in five games.

Washington vs. Pittsburgh

Both of these teams had tough opening series. Washington’s was tougher, and they had to win Game Seven over a tight-checking New York Rangers team. They live and die with Ovechkin and Semin. Fedorov scored a huge game-winning goal. Mike Green is one of the best offensive defenceman in the league, and Tom Poti has come back from injury and played a great Game Seven.

The story with Washington, though, is goaltending. The brain trust decided early they wouldn’t win too many games with Jose Theodore in net giving up 4.5 goals a game to an offensively-challenged New York team. It’s a shame they didn’t figure this out last summer, or even at the trade deadline.

Instead, in Game Two in the first round of the playoffs they plugged in rookie goaltender Simeon Varlamov from Russia. The 200year-old was a first-round pick in 2006, and he’d had a reasonable year in the six games and 329 minutes he put in. He had a .918 save percentage and a 2.37 goals0against average.

Varlamov’s been great in the playoffs. He is arguably the difference maker in this series. It was a gutsy move—and one that needed to have been made a long time ago. A team with as much talent as Washington deserves a better goalie then Theodore.

Still, these things don’t usually work out. For every Patrick Roy and Ken Dryden excelling in the playoffs as youngsters, there are dozens of Steve Penneys and Carey Prices out there. Varlamov's story is still being written, and he’s got one Game Seven win to put in his resume.

The Rangers wrote the game plan on how to beat Washington. If you contain Ovechkin—like they did in Games Two and Seven—and if you can score enough, you beat them.

New York couldn’t score enough. That won’t be Pittsburgh’s problem. They added some key components to their line up and look to be better then the team that dropped three out of four to the Capitals in the regular season.

They have in Jordan Staal, Maxime Talbot, and Matt Cooke—some of the best checkers in the game. They skate hard, play the body—and Cooke especially will drive Ovechkin insane. They have a depth of scoring that Washington can't match.

Their young goalie has had a rockier road to climb then Varlamov, but Marc-Andre Fleury is starting to play up to his draft position.

Sergei Gonchar provides the offensive spark from the blue line that Green gives the Capitals. Orpick is their shut-down guy—though without Whitney, their defense does look more vulnerable then last year's did.

Hal Gill will not show well against fleet-footed Russians or Swedes—or Canadians or Americans for that matter. The big old guy can’t skate. Kris Letang is providing some offense from the blueline.

This should all prove too much for Washington, but I expect some great games, with back and forth offensive flow. There should be goals in this series that can’t be scored anywhere else. Pittsburgh wins in the end, because Malkin and Crosby together are better then Ovechkin and Semin together.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in six games.

West

Anaheim vs. Detroit

Defending Stanley Cup champion Detroit made hash of poor center-less Columbus. Detroit seems to be the only team that can bring in quality depth when players get injured.

In what promises to be a tough series players will get injured. Detroit will fill in with Ericsson, Helm and Leino. Anaheim will have to plug in Hedican and Ryan Carter.

Detroit has the best three defenseman in hockey in Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall. Anaheim may have a better five with Pronger, Niedermeyer, Whitney, Wiesnewski, and Beauchemin.

Where it falls apart is at forward. Anaheim has four scoring forwards. Two of them are likely to get neutralized. Meanwhile, Zetterburg, Datsyuk, Holmstrom, Hossa, Franzen, Samuelsson, Hudler, and Filppula are all capable of providing offense. Oh, and Cleary had forty points too.

The Ducks' top six guys have 40 points or more. Andrew Ebbet is the only other player doing anything offensively—and he may just be getting points by association. Detroit has 11 players with 40 points or more, plus Holmstrom, who had 37 in 53 games.

Hopefully in this series, Detroit gets challenged enough that Osgood is replaced by the competent Conklin. Other then in net, Detroit has too much for a very good Anaheim team. Scott Niedermeyer has looked touchable these playoffs. This really might be the year he retires.

The longer Osgood plays the longer the series will go. Washington figured out immediately that they couldn’t win with Theodore in net. Detroit is so good the handicap wasn’t even noticed in the first round.

I’m picking the team with the better goaltending to lose. Honestly, that’s not the way the playoffs are supposed to work.

Predicition: Detroit in six games.

Chicago vs. Vancouver

Vancouver swept their first-round opponent. They managed to heal up injuries they had to Sundin, Salo, and Willie Mitchell.

Chicago had a tougher time with Calgary, but still made it through relatively unscathed. Luongo appeared to pull a groin in that last game in St Louis, but he’s had more then a week of recovery time. He needs to stay healthy for the Canucks to have any chance.

Vancouver has a good defense when Ohlund, Bieksa, Mitchell, Salo, and Edler can all play. They take a step back when Vaananen is in the lineup, and it gets critical when they have two defencemen hurt.

They suffer from the weakness that most modern cap teams seem to have, which is a lack of “quality” depth at any position. After their top four or five guys, they have filled in with players they can afford.

The Sedins and Burrows still make a good first line. Demitra, Kesler, and Sundin aren’t horrible as a second line, but a checking line with Kyle Wellwood on it is unlikely to hold up anyone.

Sundin needs to be able to play every game to give them the secondary scoring they will need against this very talented Chicago team. It’s easy to see now why he took so long to decide to come back to the NHL. Bet you he doesn’t come back next year. He has gotten too old for this crap.

Chicago beat a much better team in the first round than Vancouver did. They have six or seven forwards that can score, but little Patrick Kane is a definite must-have player. His skill and speed are hard to cover, and Chicago will need all the offense they can muster. They’ll need to move Luongo around his crease to beat him.

That said, Chicago has a good solid defense. Seabrook and their checking line will hold the Sedins to next to nothing. If Sundin can’t step it up, Vancouver will be hard pressed to score in this series.

Luongo is better than Khabibulin, but it’s not a huge difference, and I think Chicago will take Vancouver out quickly, possibly in five. I’m again choosing the worse goalie to win the series. It's not as big a discrepancy as in the Detroit series, but still it can't be smart.

Prediction: Chicago in six games.

New Vezina Trophy Winner

Scott Weldon — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 07:31:23 -0400

This is always a tough award to hand out. There’s a lot of subjectivity involved. Different teams play different styles and those styles directly impact a goaltenders statistics. The goalie whose whole career I’ve seen, who I thought was the best goalie I’d ever watched, was Grant Fuhr.

10 years in Edmontonhe never had a goals against average that was lower than three. His save percentage was never above .899. Fuhr played on Oiler teams who thought defence was something other teams played against them.

Grant probably stopped more breakaways then other goalies stopped shots. He won five Stanleycups and Canada Cups in 1984 and 1987. He won a Vezina in 87-88 with a 3.43 goals against average and .881 save percentage.

Here was a goalie who I think was one of the all-time greats and yet there’s no tangible, statistical way to demonstrate that it’s true.

I’ve been trying to see if there is some way to sort the goalie from the team defence to see who is actually the best goalie in the league. That is what the Vezina is supposed to be for.

My first move was to split out all goalies who didn’t play at least a third of their teams games. Those guys don’t even have the confidence of their own team and are probably playing weak teams and their statistics will be skewed.

I then took a look at how many shots per game each team in the league gave up. I’m thinking this number gives you a rough idea of how good a particular teams defense is. The fewer shots, probably the fewer quality shots and scoring chances a team is giving up.

This likely impacts a goalies GAA and save percentage in a positive fashion. I next ranked players by minutes played which is an indication of how good the team thinks their goalie is ;mind you mostly in relation to whoever else they can put in.

Still it’s a pretty good indication of their belief in the quality of their goalie.That’s not a trivial consideration because teams live and die with these guys. I then took a look at number of wins, save percentage and GAA which are the traditional methods of evaluating a goalies’ ability.

My attempt to sort out how much is the goalie and how much is the team lead me to look at Nabokov and Toskala. They were formerly teammates and the 1,1a goalies of the San Jose Sharks.

On at least two occasions Toskala displaced Nabokov as the starter. The two goalies in San Jose were basically statistically identical. San Joseis a top notch defensive team that is usually among the league leaders in defensive categories. They’re the third leading team in the league in GAA and they gave up the fewest shots in the league this year.

This makes me think their defense is a good portion of what makes their GAA so low. The goaltending is probably good as well since their goalies are stopping a good portion of that league low shot total.

Toskala was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs who give up 30.3 shots per game. This placed them 17th in the league just south of the middle of the pack. They have the worst goals against average to go with that middling shot total so I’m inclined to believe that a good portion of their problem might be due to sub-par goaltending.

I then looked at Toskala and Nabokov this year. Toskala had a GAA of 3.26 and a save percentage of .891. He played approximately 62 percent of his teams minutes. Nabokov is generally considered to be a good to great goalie.

He has proven in the past to be very similar statistically when compared with Toskala, yet this year with San Josehe had a 2.48 GAA and .910 save percentage. His numbers are considerably better then Toskala’s all while playing more minutes.

Nabokov is averaging 25.1 saves for every 60 minutes he plays. Toskala is making 26.5 saves in the same time. He has to, he’s facing an extra 3.1 shots per game. Here are two goalies who at one time seemed interchangeable and now Nabokov “looks” to be a goal a game better then Toskala.

Is it true? There are other considerations. Toskala ended the year hurt. His confidence may be shaken playing for a worse defensive team which then effects his play. Still I have to believe Toskala and Nabokov aren’t that much different.

Playing in San Josemasks some goaltending deficiencies (as does playing in say...Detroit) and playing in Toronto exposes them. Toskala’s numbers have been impacted negatively by Toronto’s play and Nabokovs positively but they’re both probably very similar in talent.

If this is true how do I evaluate Vezina candidates? Certainly I’m reluctant now to include Nabokov in my list of top ten goalies in the league. I next have taken a look at how many shots per game every team in the league gives up.

I guessed that the teams in the middle don’t effect their goalies statistics all that much relative to other goalies. The teams giving up the fewest shots probably insulate their goalie from bad statistics and teams at the bottom probably are a drag on their goalies numbers, despite their ability.

The five teams in the NHL that give up the fewest shots per game this year are San Jose, Detroit, Columbus, LA, and Dallas. The five teams that give up the most shots in the league are the Florida Panthers, the New York Islanders, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Edmonton.

Already I’ve got a warmer, fuzzier spot in my heart for Lehtonen, Vokoun, Biron, and Roloson. Suddenly I have to wonder about numbers put up by Steve Mason, Marty Turco, Ersberg, and Quick in LA, and Nabokov.

Osgood has the second worst save percentage and seventh worst goals against average among goalies who played at least a third of their teams games. This is while playing for a team that gives up the second fewest shots in the league and has a defense with Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall on it. Suddenly his bad numbers look much, much worse.

Some of these teams are so tight defensively they don’t need a great goalie to win or else skill in their goalie is irrelevant, it never becomes needed. I’m paraphrasing, but Ken Dryden in, I believe his book, The Game, said early in his career he needed to win games for his team.

At the end the team became so good he couldn’t lose a game no matter how badly he played. Osgood may be in the same place except he never really had that point in his career where Detroit needed him to win games.

Finally I came up with this list. The 10th best goalie in the league is still Martin Brodeur. Despite the ravages of age and injury he played on a team that gave up 29.5 shots per game ,13 th in the league. He played 37 percent of his team's minutes.

He wound up in the top 10 (barely) in GAA and save percentage and shut-outs. He was statistically almost identical to Clemmenson but he had more shutouts in fewer games. The ninth best goalie in the league is Jonas Hiller of the Anaheim Ducks.

Anaheim gave up a lot of shots 12th worst in the league. Hiller was fifth and sixth in GAA and save percentage. He played half his teams games and won a goaltending competition with a former Stanley Cup winner, JS Gigeure.

The eighth best goalie is Chris Mason of the St Louis Blues. St Louis gives up the seventh fewest shots in the league and yet their GAA is 12th best. He has a 2.41 GAA and .916 save percentage and six shut-outs all numbers that put him in the top ten in the league. He played 2/3’s of his teams games.

Next comes Pekka Rinne in Nashville. I’m leery of Nashville goalies just because they’ve produced Vokoun and then gotten rid of him, Chris Mason and dumped him, Dan Ellis and supplanted him. You’re left thinking that perhaps any goalie can succeed in Nashville.

Yet they give up 29.4 shots per game. It’s a very average number and those other goalies seemed to thrive elsewhere so apparently Nashvilleis just really good at finding goalies. He’s still in the top 10 in shut-outs, save pct and GAA all while playing 61 percent of his teams games and winning a goaltending battle with Dan Ellis. I have Pekka Rinne as No. 7.

Another goalie who works in tandem with a back up and has great numbers is Nikolai Khabibulin. He’s got the third best GAA in the league and a top ten save percentage. He’s benefitting from Chicago’s stingy defense but still he’s a quality tender. He makes 26.7 saves per game on a team that gives up 28.6 shots per game.

The fifth best goalie in the league is that other Nashville product Tomas Vokoun. He’s got the second highest save percentage in the league at the same time that he’s making the third most saves per game in the league. He’s also top ten in shut-outs and played 67.5 percent of his teams games.

He does this playing for a team that by a wide margin gives up the most shots per game in the league, 34.7.

The fourth best goaltender in the league is Roberto Luongo. He’s top 10 in GAA, save percentage and shut-outs. He’s making the same number of saves per game as Khabibulin.

The third best goalie in the league is young Steve Mason. He’s the first of my goalies to crack the top ten barrier in minutes played and he’s got the lead in shut-outs and is second in GAA. As well he’s a top 10 save percentage goalie.

He’s playing for a pretty good defensive team under Ken Hitchcock which makes me discount his numbers a bit. Pascal Leclaire had great numbers for the same team and last year lead the league in shut-outs. If Leclaire flounders in Ottawa I might have to reevaluate Mason though Ottawahas a pretty good defensive team too.

The second best goalie in the league is Tim Thomas. He’s the leading GAA goalie and save percentage goalie in the league. He’s top 10 in shut-outs and saves per game for a team that gives up a lot of shots. If he’d played more games he’d be a shoe in for the Vezina.

As it is my best goalie and Vezina trophy winner is Niklas Backstrom. He played 83 percent of his teams games, almost 14 games more then Thomas, while being third, fourth and third in GAA,save percentage and shut-outs.

He plays for a team that gives up almost the same number of shots per game as Boston. The illusion is that Minnesota has one of the best defensive teams in the league but they’re giving up 30.7 shots per game, 11th worst in the league.

Despite that they have the second best goals against average in the league. Bostonas a team has almost identical numbers but I chose Backstrom over Thomas because he does it while carrying a significantly greater workload.

For you Ranger fans out there Henrik Lundquist graded out as 11th best goalie in the league. Watching him in the playoffs I have to believe he’s better then that. I will perhaps revisit this after the Stanley Cup finals when I can incorporate the playoff numbers.

LEAGUE'S 10 BEST GOALIES

1/Niklas Backstrom - Minnesota Wild

2/Tim Thomas - Boston Bruins

3/Steve Mason- Columbus Blue Jackets

4/Roberto Luongo- Vancouver Canucks

5/Tomas Vokoun- Florida Panthers

6/Nikolai Khabibulin- Chicago Blackhawks

7/Pekka Rinne- Nashville Predators

8/Chris Mason- St Louis Blues

9/Jonas Hiller- Anaheim Ducks

10/Martin Brodeur- New Jersey Devils

11/Henrik Lundquist- New York Rangers

First Round of the NHL Playoffs

Scott Weldon — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 15:23:53 -0400

The race for the Stanley Cup begins again Wednesday night. While the guy pictured above probably won't win, the other sixteen teams who have made it in still have a chance. The Stanley Cup playoffs resemble running a gauntlet for two months.

Even if it turns out you can do it you won't come out unbruised. Here's how I see the first eight best of seven playoff series finishing up.

EAST

Montreal VS Boston- Boston in Six

The Bruins should cruise. They’ve played with passion all year while Montreal has fizzled.Their goaltending has been the best in the league. Wideman gives them a good offensive defenceman and Chara is the definitive shut-down guy with a huge shot.

Ference made his reputation in Calgary as an undersize, strong skating defenceman who never makes a mistake but he might not be ready for the first round. Aaron Ward is likewise very solid.

Hunwick and Stewart provide young depth and montador and hnidy a veteran presence. The coach can mix and match depending on how the series goes. Offensively Marc Savard is having another of a series of great, creative offensive years. Dave Krejci has broken out with .85 points per game.

Kessel has done the same despite his bout of mono.Recchi has been a nice addition and can play on any line. Ryder replaced Glen Murray ably and Blake Wheeler picked up off the trash heap has shown flashes of brilliance.

Under achieving post-concussion Patrice Bergeron and still dangerous and Chuck Kobasew with 21 goals in 68 games can both contribute. Sturm is out for the season and Axelsson may miss the first round.

Still, Boston will score.

Raspy Milan Lucic ,Shawn Thornton and Stephane Yelle provide a checking line with presence and offence. Tim Thomas has the best numbers in the league on a team that gives up a lot of shots.

Yet this team last year lost to this same Montreal team in seven. The goaltending in Boston always looks good until the games get important and then it falls off. This terrible looking Montreal team could have still beaten these Bruins.

Unfortunately Montreal's skinny defense suffered a crippling loss when Andrei Markov was injured. In the same way they couldn’t win a game when Komisarek was out they will struggle without Markov.

Boston has given up the fewest goals in the league.They’re the second highest scoring team in the league. They should eat Montreal alive. The Habs will win a couple games but more is too much to expect.

Carolina vs NJ-Carolina in Seven

I don’t really like either of these teams. Carolina is a too old team with questionable defense and a volatile goalie. New Jersey has a questionable defense, an old, old goalie and not a deep enough offense. New Jersey is twelfth in shots given up in the league and fourth in goals against.

Those are both good numbers but I think they’d do better with Scott Clemmenson in nets. Brodeur has had some great and horrendous starts since he’s been back. My memory of him last year in the playoffs not being able to bend over fast enough to pick up a puck is still kind of traumatic for me.

They’ve managed to put together two good scoring lines this year and everyone seems healthy. Will Langenbrunner,Madden,Rolston and Shanahan be able to take the pounding?

If Madden and Holik can stay healthy they’ll have one of the most experienced checking lines in hockey. Can they keep up with Staal and Cole?I'm thinking no. The devils need a power play quarterback.

Anssi Salmela, recently dealt, was not the answer. New Jersey and Carolina score the same. I just believe a hot Ward and three lines of scoring in Carolina, plus a power play quarterback in Joe Corvo spell victory in this round.

By the end of it though Whitney, Samsonov and Brind'Amour are all likely to be hurt and I believe they bow out quickly in the second round. Cullen has a sore foot but is expected to play.

New York Rangers vs Washington- NYR in Six

Ovechkin and the Capitals are a popular pick this year. Washington has been good all season. They have perhaps the best player in the game in Ovechkin and have a great first line and a fair second line. Mike Green is the best offensive defenceman in hockey.

Washington gives up as many shots as New Jersey but their GAA is the 19th worst in the league.

Their goaltending is not to be relied on. Chris Clarke is out for the playoffs and Tom Poti might not start in the first round. Washington is one of the great offensive teams in the league. You can’t let them get on the power play.

Their statistics have been fattened up on a SE division which has teams like Tampa Bay who don’t think you need defenceman to play hockey. I don’t like the rangers.

I don’t like Sean Avery. Still they have good goaltending in Lundquist and a fair young defense and some defensively responsible forwards. If they can sit on Ovechkin they can win this series and I believe they’ll sit on Ovechkin. Look for Marc Staal to hit Ovechkin every time he tries to move.

Rangers are another team who shouldn’t beat anyone in the second round, unless they face the winner of Carolina – NJ. Washington might do well to try Varlamov in nets. He could be better then Theodore.

Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh - Philadelphia in Seven

This is another coin flip of a series.I’m taking the flyers based on my belief they have good goaltending ,a good if skinny defense and too many offensive weapons to be stopped.

A healthy Briere gives them two of the best offensive lines in hockey. Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the east right now and has a bundle of talent with Crosby and Malkin.

If the Flyers lose Timmonen or Coburn or Jones to injury they’re in real trouble. The Penguins have extended themselves getting into fourth. Fleury is starting to look like a good goalie and the return of Sergei Gonchar has amped up the offence.

They have a good supporting cast with Guerin,Kunitz,Sykora and Staal and Talbot. Kris Letang seems to have evolved as an offensive defenceman. I just believe Carter, Richards,Gagne, Briere, Knuble, Hartnell, and Lupul are better as a group then Pittsburgh’s forwards.

Their D and goaltending is good. Pittsburgh could easily win this series and I think whoever does win meets Boston in the east final.

WEST

Columbus vs Detroit - Detroit in Six

Columbus is a good young team that has finally made the playoffs. They play a tight defensive system and have gotten stellar rookie goaltending from Steve Mason. They playoffs hopefully won't turn out to be his Roman Cechmanek moment.

They have a full roster of role players and with Rick Nash, one of the great players in the game. Their defense is good if average. Unfortunately they lack a No. 1 center and Antoine Vermette a checker with speed is not it. RJ Umberger is a great number two center, he's just not a starting center.

The loss of Derek Brassard for the season has kept them from seeing if he could be that player for them. Huselius is still suffering from a concussion and Tollefson is still hurt This is not the lineup to defeat the defending Stanley Cup Champions with. Detroit, despite their egregious goaltending, should swamp them.

They have more offense then Columbus can handle and once they figure out they need to start Ty Conklin in nets they will cruise past the young jackets. Columbus is probably just happy to be there.

The experience should be good for their young players. Detroit has too much scoring, too much skating and the best three defenceman combo in the league.

Anaheim vs San Jose- Anaheim in Six

I’ve picked SJ to win the cup the last three years. I won’t do it again. I don’t believe their offensive depth ,stingy defense and good goaltending will outpace the resurgent Ducks. San Jose gives up the fewest shots per game in the league and the third fewest goals.

Nabokov is a steady enduring presence. The offence trails only Detroit and is in a group with Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston, Calgary and Chicago. Their injuries seem to be healing and they have Grier, Lemieux, Roenick, Goc, Clowe, and Blake back.

Anaheim has four legitimate snipers and a defense that is better then when they won the cup. Wisnewski and Whitney provide young minutes and Niedermeyer and Pronger give Stanley cup quality defense.

Beauchemin has returned from injury and should be able to provide good power play minutes. They have two good NHL goalies and if their shut-down players prove to be superior to the recently dumped Pahlsson and Moen they could go places.

I’m sorry San Jose, I just don’t believe in you anymore.

Calgary vs Chicago -Chicago in Five

This is probably the worst matchup for a healthy Calgary Flames team. With Borque, Giordano, Phaneuf, Sarich, and Regehr all threatening to miss the first game and Regehr likely to miss the whole playoffs, expect Jim Vandermeer to be skated around for most of this first round.

Kiprusoff has been good, if overworked, but Khabibulin is grading into brilliant at just the right time.

Throw in the depth of Chicago’s young talent and I expect them to skate rings around Calgary. Iginla, Jokinen, and Cammalleri are one of the best lines in the league and if Borque, Langkow, and Bertuzzi are healthy there will be some secondary scoring but I don’t believe it’ll be enough.

Chicago has too much talent to lose to this broken up Flames team. Calgary should show some improvement now that they'll be playing with a full roster again.

St Louis vs Vancouver - Vancouver in Six

Vancouver won the playoff lottery when St. Louis finished sixth. This is about the only team Vancouver can beat. Their goaltending is better, their defence is better, and they have enough experienced scoring to offset St. Louis’s youthful offense.

Brewer and Johnson are going to miss the playoffs but there is talk Paul Kariya could be back. It won’t make a difference. Vancouver's defence is aging but currently healthy. The presence of Vaananen on the major league roster indicates organizational depth problems.

They may not be able to deal with injury. They have two solid lines and then a bag of crap. Vancouver plays in a weaker division, so St Louis might actually be better then them, but I don’t think it’ll prove so this playoff.

I'd watch out for St Louis next year when they get Eric Johnson back. They could go places.

Sports Are For The Young? Don't Tell These Older Athletes

Scott Weldon — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:10:19 -0400

Generally speaking, it's true that sports are the pursuit of the young. Especially the violent combat, collision, and contact sports favour, almost require, an athlete in his prime or younger.

Yet some athletes late in their careers, late in their lives, have managed to excel when most people are saying they should have given the sport up and gone home.

Being an old man myself, I like to see athletes with such talent and character that they seem to defy the natural aging process. The following are my ten favourite accomplishments by older athletes.

1. Gordie Howe—In 1979-80 Gordie Howe, at age 51, played in a full 80-game season and three playoff games for the Hartford Whalers of the NHL.

2. Satchel Paige—The legendary pitcher broke in to major league baseball at age 41. He was chosen for his first all star team at age 43. He pitched professionally until he was 59.

3. George Blanda—He became a professional football player in 1948 as a quarterback, linebacker, and place kicker.

He played in the NFL until he was 48, mostly as a place kicker, but at age 43, he came into several games for the Oakland Raiders injured quarterback Darryl Lamonica. He started as quarterback and performed well in that year's AFC final and is still the oldest player ever to have done that.

4. Nolan Ryan—He played 27 seasons of major league ball. He threw at over 100 mph past the age of 40 and pitched until he was 46. At age 44, he had a 12-6 record with a 2.91 ERA and 204 strikeouts.

5. Oscar Swahn—This Swedish Olympian won gold at the 1908 Olympics at age 60 in the running deer shoot. At age 72, he won silver in the same shooting event at the 1920 Olympics.

6. George Foreman—At 45 years of age George captured two heavyweight belts by knocking out 27-year-old Michael Moorer in the last scheduled round of their championship bout.

7. Sam Snead—At 52, he became the oldest man ever to win a PGA event. Mind you, it is golf. Old guys are good at golf.

8. Julio Franco—The one time shortstop played until he was 49, becoming the oldest position player to play in MLB. Mind you, that last year, his "position" was mostly designated hitter. That kind of takes the shine off.

9. Phil Niekro—The knuckleballer pitched for 28 years. He won more than 120 games after turning 40.

10. Chris Chelios—He's still active in the NHL at age 46. He won the Cup last year with Detroit.

Honourable Mention—Luis Tiant, Igor Larionov, Joe Niekro, Muhammed Ali, Larry Holmes, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Carl Eller, Sunny Jurgensun, and Sergei Fedorov

Gordie Howe: Best Performance by an Older Athlete

Scott Weldon — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:34:09 -0400

When I think of best performances by an old athlete, I find myself drawn to one name.

When I first started watching hockey the announcers at the time were letting me know that Gordie Howe was in the twilight of his career.

The year was 1970.

The year before, at 40 years of age, he had finished third in the scoring race with 44 goals and 103 points.

This was the beginning of the Big Bad Bruins. The NHL had doubled its size the year before, so the experts were telling me that Gordie's era was over and new things were on the horizon.

At the start of the decade, Rocket Richard was pushed into retirement in Montreal after 18 years in the league. Now in 1970, after 24 years, people were saying it was time for Gordie to hang them up.

Gordie had only managed 31 goals and 71 points in 76 games for Detroit this year. This meant that year Bobby Orr won the Art Ross trophy. Gordie was only the ninth-leading scorer in the league. Obviously, he was a has-been. He beat another Hall of Famer, Frank Mahovlich, by a point to lead his team in scoring.

The Habs and the Leafs both missed the playoffs that year, for the first time in NHL history, and so we in Canada got to watch playoff hockey in buildings we never got to see on CBC. Detroit played the Blackhawks in the first round, and despite the raucous Joe Louis Arena crowds, were swept.

That was, as the announcers again told me, the end for Gordie Howe. He came back the next year for a farewell tour. It was his 25th year playing a collision sport. I heard more stories about his arthritis that year then I care to remember.

This boy who had broken into the NHL at age 17 was playing his last season in the NHL. He was 42 and his team, the storied Red Wings, finished last in the East behind the expansion Vancouver Canucks.

It did seem like the end of an era. He held every career record worth having in the NHL when he retired. He still holds the record for most games played. He had 52 points in 63 games that last year but he suddenly wasn't the greatest player in the league,wasn't the tenth greatest player.

At age 42 his career was over. I bought a poster that year with a fuzzy Gordie Howe on it and all his final career stats.

Suddenly, along came the WHA. They needed players desperately and they needed name recognition. They signed guys—Bobby Hull, JC Tremblay, Derek Sanderson, and Gordie Howe—who had been retired for years, but suddenly didn't look so old.

I lost track of him then and no one thought of the WHA as a real league, but still Gordie went out and played professional hockey. He played four years in Houston, averaged 71 games a year, and had 30 goals and a 100 points three of those years. He won two Avco cups with them and lost to Bobby Hull and Winnipeg in his third year.

He won the league's MVP award in 1974. Then he and his two sons Marty and Mark moved from Houston to play for the New England Whalers. This was an additional six years of professional hockey out of a man who was too arthritic to be playing the game in 1971.

Nine years after his last year in Detroit, Gordie Howe returned to the NHL with the Hartford Whalers. He was 51 years old and he played 80 games in the best professional hockey league in the world. He got 15 goals and 26 assists at age 51. He played in the playoffs that year (it was 1980, so practically everyone made the playoffs), getting a goal and an assist in a three game series.

This is an astonishing accomplishment for any athlete, but in a collision sport it is unheard of. Any man who can play 80 games in the NHL at age 51 deserves all the praise you can heap on him.It's the best performance I can imagine by an old athlete.

I still have my old fuzzy Gordie Howe poster with the out of date "final" statistics on it: 1687 games played, 786 goals, 1025 assists, 1809 points. I was going to replace it, but I'm afraid he's coming back.