Bleacher Report - Articles by Scott Engel

RotoExperts/Free the Fan Experts Mock Draft: On Video!

Scott Engel — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:38:15 -0400

Watch 60 minutes of expert analysis! Scott Engel gathers some of the industry’s biggest names to break down 16 rounds of picks on FANTASY PLAYBOOK!

The link to watch the full 60-minute program appears right here in this article! First, here's some of the latest offerings from ROTOEXPERTS.COM.

Draft Day is Coming - Get Help Now and throughout the season
Roto University will teach you the secrets the pros use to win
consistently

Play the Upset Challenge on your iPhone or on the web
Pick the top three upsets each week and score big!
Start an office pool, talk smack when you win.
Play online or search iTunes for Upset Challenge

Scott Engel and Ben Ice and the 10 Commandments of Fantasy Football!
Order Play to Win: Fantasy Football. These aren't simple words of wisdom--Scott and Ben discuss the finer points of preparation.

This season, when we set out to put together a mock draft here at RotoExperts, we wanted to do something exciting, something “special.” So here it is! Along with our friends at FREE THE FAN, where YOU take control of sports talk, and UBA TV, the home of the “Worst Damn Sports Show”, we proudly present our industry-wide Experts mock draft—on a FREE full 60 minute streaming video at the bottom of this article!

This draft features some of the biggest names in the fantasy business, and features Scott Engel of RotoExperts.com and Adam Ronis, the fantasy expert for New York Newsday and host of the Fantasy Bonus on BlogTalkRadio.com’s Fantasy Sports Channel.

Also coming in for some unrelenting, entertaining, and highly informative strategical spins after every round is “The Big Noise”, Brad Evans of Yahoo! Fantasy Sports. Our host is Victoria Brenker, who moderates all the continuous and never-ending insights from the UBA TV studios in New York City.

Filmed in the Financial District, the advice and tips you’ll get on this one-hour show are, well...right on the money.

I’ll drop the show link on you in a second. First, I want to introduce the experts featured in the draft. In addition to analysis from myself, Adam, and Brad, several of the experts featured drop in to discuss their strategies and some of their most interesting picks.

Andy Behrens, Yahoo! Sports

Scott Pianowski, Yahoo! Sports

Craig Ellenport, NFL.com

Matt Pitzer, USA Today

Jay Clemons, Sports Illustrated

Sigmund Bloom/David Dodds, FootballGuys.com

Nick Minnix, KFFL

Greg Ambrosius, Fantasy Sports Magazine

Bob Harris/Joe Hebert, FootballDiehards.com

Geoffrey Stein, Mock Draft Central

David Gonos/Ian Riley, Open Sports

Pat Hegewald/Caitlin Morrall, RapidDraft.com

Now, HERE IS THE LINK TO THE FANTASY PLAYBOOK 2009 EXPERTS MOCK DRAFT. Enjoy, and I welcome all feedback!

Here is also a version of the show link if you simply want to cut and paste:

http://ubatv.com/Channel.aspx?Show=2a

Roto University's 75 Tips for Fantasy Football Success

Scott Engel — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 14:48:42 -0400

Knowledge is power in fantasy football.

Preparing properly gives you an edge on draft day. You must act as a scout, general manager, head coach and other front office and sideline types all rolled into one.

The responsibilities and challenges are fun, but they can also be daunting. There's a lot to remember and absorb as you prepare for the new season, and sometimes it doesn’t always comfortably fit in one type of article or under one header.

So here are the most important things I can impart to you as the new season approaches, to make your road to the top a smoother one. They are not listed in any certain order, because they are all equally important.

You’ll never have full peace of mind in this game, but you’ll be ready to fully outwit the opposition when we’re done.

For even more exclusive tips and advice from me, register now for ROTO UNIVERSITY, where I teach online Fantasy Football classes for both beginner and expert players.

Think you have what it takes to tell all your league mates "I Told You So? Then register for the new UPSET CHALLENGE game, powered by RotoExperts.com. Each week, predict the biggest upsets in the NFL in a brand new, unique Pick 'Em game!

Now, here's the Big 75 for 2009.

1. You don’t always have to follow “runs” during your draft. Except at the beginning. running backs are going to fly off the board, and the tiers drop off quickly. You can still get an outstanding WR with that second pick.

2. We always tell you to know your scoring system, but stick fast to your starting lineup requirements, too. Fill out those starting RB and WR slots first before worrying about depth. If your league starts three or four WRs, grab that RB early, but make sure you come out of the first four rounds with at least two WRs.

3. Point-per reception leagues are becoming the norm, so tailor your approaches accordingly. Wide receivers like Derrick Mason and Kevin Walter aren’t “sexy” in standard performance leagues, but they won’t let you down in PPR formats.

4. Believe in the decisions of the staffs of proven winners. You think the Patriots would have let Matt Cassel go if Tom Brady wasn’t primed for a big comeback? The Colts obviously think it’s Anthony Gonzalez’s time to shine, so they have cleared the way for him to start.

5. Remember that dropped passes are not a negative stat in fantasy football. Terrell Owens isn’t going to hurt you, he’s going to help you. The guy is still is in outstanding shape and is playing on a one-year deal in Buffalo.

6. Don’t get locked into drafting RB handcuffs, because the primary backup may change later in the year on some teams. Evaluate every situation individually.

Who was thinking about Le’Ron McClain or Tashard Choice at this time last year? Injuries can quickly put a guy like Mewelde Moore back into action. In some situations, it makes clear sense, but handcuffing certainly is not absolute, and I’d rather take the best player available in many cases.

7. Don’t overrate the departure of Fred Taylor when considering Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD isn’t about to become some type of major workhorse with significantly inflated touches.

Jones-Drew has always been successful in the past because the team had not overworked him, and they’re not about to dramatically veer away from a proven model. Jones-Drew may certainly see a career-high amount of reps, but he will still share some time with another guy who steps up in camp, possibly rookie Rashad Jennings. Expect just a bit more of what you received from MJD in the past, and you will be happy.

8. When you’re considering players based on their fantasy playoff schedules, how about simply trying to make the playoffs first? You can’t realistically evaluate late-season matchups based on last season, not knowing what may change during the first 13 weeks of the NFL schedule. I find much of pre-draft schedule analysis to be wasted time, and preseason playoff schedule forecasting to be a bigger waste.

9. Don’t give me that 370-carry stuff about Michael Turner. An internal alarm doesn’t go off when a player hits that mark. Well, at least not for a guy that finally became a starter in 2008. Turner never had more than 80 rushing attempts in a season before last year.

10. Other than running backs, I fully avoid drafting rookies. Separate the glowing scouting reports from the reality of the pro game, please. For as much talent as guys like Hakeem Nicks and Percy Harvin have, it rarely translates into instant impact in the pros. Tight ends are likely to develop even more slowly than wide receivers, and even the average player knows to avoid first-year quarterbacks.

11. All the rage is about time shares, but it’s not a bad thing at all. Tandems in Tennessee and Carolina have shown us two RBs in the same backfield can both produce well. Backups such as Chester Taylor and Jerious Norwood can help keep top RBs like Adrian Peterson and Turner fresh. Look for Norwood to be more of a factor as the Falcons keep Turner rolling in 2009.

12. I’m simply steering clear of Matt Cassel. A QB with his experience and pedigree only could have survived and surprisingly thrived in New England. His most dependable possession target will be Bobby Engram, who is about to fade out, and Dwayne Bowe simply won’t be enough. There’s a big dropoff from Tony Gonzalez to Brad Cottam or another potluck TE there.

13. Stop obsessing about your first-round pick. You can never properly speculate how things will fall out, and just be ready for anything. You really think I expected Peterson to fall to me at No. 4 last year? Or Turner at No. 9 this season?

14. Let someone else worry about Brian Westbrook this season. Even if he has no setbacks, his recent health concerns and wear and tear over the years suggest he will really start to decline and may be less able to play through pain. Again, trust the moves of staffs on winning teams. The Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy for significant reasons.

15. Someone inevitably laughs at us “experts” when they see selected picks in our mock drafts. Don’t take every pick as gospel. Mocks indicate what you may see in your own draft, and give you a picture of what various owners may think. Mock drafts, even expert ones, contain various schools of thoughts. Use them to educate yourself on how there are so many different strategies at play and how to be ready to adjust on the run.

16. Watch for a passing revival in Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck is revving up for a big comeback year, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh will help him keep the sticks moving while also being a top TD target. John Carlson will be very dependable and Nate Burleson should be able to stretch the field. Expect a controlled, but very effective air game.

17. Don’t draft to trade. Take the players you must use to fill key starting slots, don’t load up to position yourself for a deal when a player you really need is right there for the taking. Don’t take a third RB if you can only start two when you still need to fill out your other key starting slots at WR and QB.

18. I love Steven Jackson, and the young WRs in St. Louis are very promising. But Jackson is going to draw so much defensive attention, and I can’t help but fear he’s going to be gang-tackled and sidelined into submission again this season. Don’t use a first-rounder on one of the nicer guys in the game, but I’d still go for him in the rare instances when he falls to the second round.

19. Don’t give me that nonsense about Jay Cutler being a bust because he has “no receivers” with his new team. That receiving corps was a reflection of the ragtag QB play before Cutler arrived. He is very capable of spreading the ball around and using all the weapons at his disposal for optimum production. He’s at least a Top 10 QB in 2009.

20. Don’t share information on draft day. If the other guy didn’t come prepared, that’s his fault. You don’t even have to lend him a magazine (trust me, there are such types). You’re friends before and after the draft. Last year, someone asked me who he should take with the first pick. I said “someone.” He took Tomlinson, who I didn’t want, and Peterson, the top player on my board, dropped to me at No. 4.

21. When you go to the newsstand, you can be intimidated by the amount of fantasy football mags you see. There are publications that fit all types of experience levels. Take some time to sift through as many as you can to get one you truly feel comfortable with. Always purchase a regular NFL preview mag, too. The scouting reports can be really helpful when making tight decisions. E-mail me for recommendations if you like. There are lots of good ones out there, and enough for all types of experience levels.

22. Don’t underrate Joseph Addai and Tim Hightower, especially the latter. They will be pushed by rookies, but both players won’t be shoved aside easily, and could end up in time share situations where both are quite productive.

23. It’s now or never for Laurence Maroney. He must show he can be an effective inside runner and stop dancing, or we’ll have to forget him for good. Some have already completely written him off. I say take a late flier on him for sure.

24. Derrick Ward is overrated. He’ll leave the offensive line of the Giants behind, and will show he is just a complementary RB who isn’t going to score often for a sputtering offense.

25. Don’t be too rigid when planning for bye weeks unless they are early in the season. You shouldn’t pass on a better player because you need a Week 8 reserve at another position. Your roster is likely to change, maybe a lot, by then.

26. Don’t overreact to stories coming out of training camp. According to the puff pieces in many dailies, lots of players are looking good in July.

27. Don’t draft backup tight ends, defenses and kickers unless your league requires it or you play in a league larger than 12 teams. You can always find a viable one-week play on the free agent list.

28. A lot of people don’t seem to believe DeAngelo Williams is capable of having another outstanding season. Such doubts seemed to drive Williams to great heights in 2008, and will do so again, along with the presence of Jonathan Stewart, another apparent motivating factor.

29. Drew Brees may have a slightly higher statistical ceiling. Peyton Manning, however, is the most reliable player in fantasy football and I’d still take him first at QB.

30. Because of his suspension, I’m seeing Marshawn Lynch fall as far as the sixth round in some drafts. After he sits out, Lynch will return with a vengeance and show he is still among the better RBs in fantasy. I’ll gamble on the missed time for the pretty good numbers when he takes the field again.

31. When you make your pick in every round, start queuing up as many applicable guys as you can for your next selection. Then you can simply take the top player remaining on your list when it’s your next turn instead of saying “rats, the guy I wanted was picked right ahead of me.”

32. Just because certain players are unproven or are unknown does not mean they cannot contribute or will not establish themselves. Someone will have to step up at WR in Cleveland and Jacksonville, and maybe even at RB in Denver if Knowshon Moreno doesn’t meet early expectations. This is why you should pay attention to exhibition games and camp battles very closely. You may not have to draft these types of players, but the next Eddie Royal is out there somewhere.

33. On the subject of lesser-heralded WRs, three I really like to step forward this season are Earl Bennett, Keenan Burton and Chansi Stuckey. All three have nice skills and opportunities to seize in 2009.

34. I’d rather be in the top four slots in any drafts this year to get one of the truly elite RBs. I usually don’t advocate trading up or down in yearly drafts, but I’d consider moving down from the fifth pick on this year. I can still get a very good RB later in the round and an elite WR early in the second round.

35. With so many leagues moving to PPR formats, outstanding RBs will drop further in the first two rounds than you might expect. Watch Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs slip to the back of the first round, and middle of the second, respectively. I’ll gleefully take them and compensate with other strong PPR picks soon thereafter.

36. The Dolphins are this season’s underrated defense that you can sometimes easily grab in the final rounds. Joey Porter is the star of the unit, but the physical safeties and solid defensive line will make this unit solid. The personnel isn’t glamorous overall, but they will get the job done, especially at home, where they often have an underrated weather advantage in the oppressive heat that can wear on the opposition.

37. More on Le’Ron McClain: I’m not buying the hype on Ray Rice and I certainly can’t have faith in Willis McGahee. I think McClain rises quickly to the top of the depth chart again.

38. Josh McDaniels brings New England style-thinking to Denver. That could mean a RB committee if Moreno doesn’t come out of the gate as hoped, and can also make LaMont Jordan viable. Kyle Orton will spread the ball around a lot in a controlled short passing game that may harken back to when Cassel first started for the Patriots last year. I’m not looking for too much from Royal with Cutler gone.

39. If you don’t get one of the top three tight ends, you can easily back off and wait for good upside prospects after the middle rounds. John Carlson and Greg Olsen can be landed as late as the eighth to 10th rounds in some drafts. Carlson will last longer than Olsen, but if you whiff on either one, you can also nab Visanthe Shiancoe or Brent Celek late. I really like Carlson and Celek this year.

40. More on defenses: With so many changes on units from year to year, it’s a real gamble to rely on last year’s results and final ranks. That’s why you don’t take a defense until the final rounds. As promising as the Jets defense looks, if the offense makes them spend too much time on the field, you won’t get the desired results. The Ravens could drop off after a few key departures, most notably Bart Scott, who landed with the Jets along with Rex Ryan. Changes on both teams could lead to defensive downturns.

41. In an online draft, save the chatting for when you really need it. Focus as much as you can on the draft itself, and leave the chatter for before and after. You should be queuing up players and doing between-rounds research between picks.

42. Thomas Jones is reportedly still in great shape, but he’s coming off five seasons with pretty heavy workloads and will be 31 when the season begins. I’m liking Shonn Greene to start contributing in 2009.

43. Player most likely to draw snarls/howls of frustration this year from other owners when you take him in the middle or later rounds: LeSean McCoy.

44. Darren Sproles is being overrated by some owners. Should LaDainian Tomlinson go down, Sproles really isn’t capable of carrying a large load for an extensive period. He’ll make some big plays, but won’t be reliable.

45. In keeper leagues, anchor each of your important positions first. That means keeping the possible No. 1 WR over the third RB. Seems simple enough, but the rule/theory isn’t followed often enough.

46. Nothing in fantasy football is absolute. There are lots of axiom and rules, but none of them apply to all situations.

47. We’re not playing fantasy baseball. Don’t get too wrapped up in numerical analysis from the past. You want to find what drives the numbers, not stick to what they were.

48. Fantasy football is no longer geeky. It’s become so popular, you’re a geek if you don’t play.

49. Again, stop obsessing about your first pick. I see you doing it again. That first selection is going to come and go so quickly, and you’ll realize that you have about 15 more rounds to go after the “biggie.” Plan for a full draft, not just one round.

50. Eli Manning is going to have to find someone to throw to. He’ll get quality protection, and his version of Steve Smith will turn out to be pretty darn reliable, especially in PPR leagues.

51. It’s fine to bank on comeback years from QBs like Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer, as long as you back them up with “safe” alternatives such as David Garrard or Chad Pennington. You want to have a respectable backup if your top QB doesn’t bounce back as hoped.

52. I’m looking for a fine season from Kevin Curtis. The Eagles may have to throw a lot in 2009, with Westbrook being less effective and a rookie learning the ropes. Curtis will emerge as the team’s most trustworthy pass-catcher.

53. Felix Jones is a future star waiting to explode. If he can avoid injuries, he’s going to deliver a few huge outings.

54. Keep a watch on Washington’s Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas. Now is the time for at least one of them to start stepping up to help Santana Moss out. Watch to see how each one progresses during the preseason.

55. For those of you who play in individual defender leagues, linemen who make more tackles than their peers are always my first picks. Linebacker is a much deeper position. I’m all over guys like Shaun Rogers when starting to look at my initial IDP selections.

56. I won’t leave kickers out this year. Go ahead and pick one.

57. Keep your head in the game during a live draft. Cross players off your cheat sheets as they are selected, because you don’t want to be the guy who calls out players who are already taken.

58. The more prepared you are, the better your trash talking can be during a live draft.

59. Don’t overreact to preseason injuries. If a guy is hurt on draft day, that doesn’t mean he won’t be ready for the regular season in many cases. Think ahead, not about today.

60. Don’t make a loud stink about league rules. If you agree to join a league, you know what you are getting into, and simply adjust to the settings. If you prepare properly, you can win in any scoring format.

61. Don’t get crazy after the draft and start making lots of trade offers. Trust what you have built and be patient. Your job after the draft is to keep abreast of player news and trends, not to make overhauls just for the sake of excitement. It’s hard to come down from the “high” of a draft, but you should only make moves that fill realistic needs in most cases.

62. Did you win your championship last year? Bring the trophy to your draft and sit it on the table in front of you for everyone to see. If it’s an online league, post a picture of the trophy on the league home page before the season starts.

63. Willie Parker will be a boom or bust pick for yardage. The returning threat of Rashard Mendenhall may spur him to some good outings, but Mendenhall is the obvious choice for short-yardage TD chances. He has the upside, Parker’s downside can only be staved off for one more year at most.

64. Tampa Bay will have some real QB issues. You don’t really believe Byron Leftwich is capable of a real revival? I sure don’t. I don’t like the outlook for Antonio Bryant at all.

65. I’m not getting any royalties for this. Subscribe or pick up Pro Football Weekly every chance you get. Read "The Way We Hear It" regularly. That is an order.

66. Help me petition the Fantasy Sports Trade Association to officially make Reggie Bush a wide receiver. Pass him up in standard scoring leagues.

67. Don’t create worries where truly there are none, or focus too much on negatives with a player you’re about to pick. I’m talking about the 370-carry thing with Turner, yeah, but also stuff like a “soph jinx” for Matt Forte. You already know the downsides of some players, don’t speculate and conjure up extra ones.

68. Join an auction league. You don’t have to wait to see what players fall to you. It’s a great, fun alternative. If you do participate in one, target two to three certain key players beforehand, and then let everything else fall into place.

69. Larry Johnson is quietly going unnoticed and overlooked this preseason. Don’t forget about him. He has to play well in order for Cassel to have a prayer of surviving.

70. When the top 20 to 25 RBs are gone, Cedric Benson will serve you well. He’s going to be very serviceable when you still need a No. 2 RB or like a flex guy who gets regular touches.

71. If your league uses a flex, the days of me recommending the RB over the WR are gone. That’s even more obvious in a PPR league. I have already gone the route of four WRs in the first six rounds of a PPR/flex league.

72. This is the last time we should give Chad Ochocinco a chance to prove he is still a top fantasy WR. If you draft him, get solid depth a round or two later, because I’m still not fully confident he will shake off extra defenders.

73. Roy Williams is set for a big year. He is a true fantasy WR diva, I’ll say it again, and he wants the ball. Now with Terrell Owens gone, he’ll get what he wants and re-emerge as a top player at his position.

74. This season seems to offer much more unpredictability than ever. This requires all of us to study harder than ever. As soon as I finish writing this, I’m going to read another magazine and peruse the latest online updates. Not just for skill position news.

75. Thanks for coming this far with me. I’ll be with you all year long.

E-mail me at scotte@rotoexperts.com and I can offer even more tips and advice that I didn’t cover here. Maybe next year I’ll have to double the amount. Register for the full courses at ROTO UNIVERSITY to get even more insider expert tips!

RotoExperts.com Talladega Preview: Fantasy NASCAR Numbers and More

Scott Engel — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 21:21:13 -0400

When Talladega appears on the schedule, there’s always a mix of emotions for Fantasy NASCAR participants. The events are always thrilling to watch, because of the high-intensity restrictor plate action. Yet the tight racing at the track has historically led to the “Big One” – A major multi-car accident that can wreak havoc on fantasy results for the week and put hurtful dents in the standings.

Fantasy owners simply have to set their best possible lineup and then hope their top drivers can avoid trouble. As usual, past results at the track and recent overall trends dictate who you should start, and the unpredictability of the event is something fantasy leaguers will simply have to live with. Ignore the pitfalls of Talladega when setting your lineups, and realize your selections can compensate for any rotten luck at less treacherous tracks in the weeks ahead.

In fact, Talladega may actually produce another happy ending for a driver who seems due for a win. Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin have all enjoyed trips to Victory Lane that have renewed the confidence of their owners for at least brief periods. Kenseth has fallen off recently, but the other two should continue to be strong choices moving forward. Now, it appears to be time for Tony Stewart to take his place among the inspiring early-season winners.

Stewart’s first season as a driver/owner has been more successful than expected so far, and he has been very reliable for fantasy purposes. Stewart is fourth in the Sprint Cup standings and is coming off his best outing of 2009 so far, a second-place showing at Phoenix. He has reeled off three consecutive Top 5 finishes and has six Top 10 finishes in eight starts so far in 2009.
“This is the best start to the season that I’ve ever had in my career,” Stewart said. “The last three weeks have just been amazing. I mean, it’s been so much fun. We’ve been in contention. We’ve led laps. We’re doing everything right. It’s just a matter of time. We are consistent now and that’s the way you’ve got to be.”
Consistency is what fantasy owners look for foremost in a driver, and those who have rode with Stewart so far may get a great reward this week. Stewart’s last win came in the second Talladega race of 2008. In the past eight races at the site dating back to 2005, Stewart leads all drivers in Driver Rating (95.9), Average Running Position (12.3) and Laps in the Top 15 (981, or 64.6 percent). He has nine Top 5s and 12 Top 10s in 20 Talladega starts.
Denny Hamlin was caught up in a wreck in the second Talladega race of ’08, after he had delivered a pair of Top 5 finishes in his previous two races at the site. Hamlin’s DR of 93.2 since 2006 is second to Stewart among all drivers having participated in events at the site dating as far back as ’05. He also ranks second in ARP (14.2). Expect a good run from Stewart’s former teammate this week.
Gordon, however, can be the strongest bet to keep Stewart out of Victory Lane. He has six wins, 16 Top 10s and 13 Top 5s in 32 Talladega starts. Of course, he also has eight DNFs at the site, so obviously he has to steer clear of bad luck first. Gordon is the perfect example of how a fantasy driver can be all-or-nothing at Talladega. Gordon is well-known for his restrictor plate prowess and his DR of 92.3 ranks third among all drivers since ’05.
The resurgent Kurt Busch should come through with another quality finish at Talladega. He has six Top 5s and 11 Top 10s in 16 Talladega starts. Since ’05, he ranks fourth in ARP (15.2) and second in Laps in the Top 15 (964, 63.5 percent) and Quality Passes (1,945) at the site. NASCAR defines Quality Passes as passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green-flag conditions.
David Ragan is easily the best value driver this week, even though he has only one Top-10 finish in the first eight races of ’09. Ragan finished fourth and third at Talladega last season. His DR of 91.4 puts him fourth among all drivers since the stat was first recorded in ‘05. When accidents happen at a site like Talladega, it can often push some lesser drivers to the front of the pack and make them more attractive bargains in fantasy. Brian Vickers won at Talladega in 2006, and was fifth in the first race at the site in ’08. His DR of 90.6 is sixth-best on the circuit since ’05.
Jamie McMurray is a solid bet to finish respectably at Talladega. He notched fifth-place finishes at the site in 2006 and 2007. His DR of 87.6 is sixth-best since ’05. Some Loop Data suggests Jeff Burton will finish well this week. Since ’05, he leads all drivers in Quality Passes (2,082) and Green-Flag Passes (3.148) at Talladega. Jimmie Johnson is only 10th in DR at Talladega (83.9), and in tiered leagues, this may be a week to pass on him. Johnson has not finished worse than 13th in his past four races at the site, but he has just four Top 5s in 14 Talladega starts, and you should save him for tracks where he has been more dominant.
Other notable competitors to avoid this week in salary cap and tiered leagues include Kyle Busch (72.5 DR, 21st since ’05), Kasey Kahne (69.6, 24th), Carl Edwards (68.6, 26th), and Greg Biffle (66.7, 28th). Martin’s DR of 60.6 is 41st, so don’t expect his momentum to carry into Talladega. Keep in mind that DR removes factors such as accidents and pit issues from the formula, and is a true measure of how a driver performs at a given track. These drivers aren’t prime picks even if they can avoid crashes.

For my Talladega rankings and a link to this week's RotoRacing podcast, which also features Indy Racing analysis, click here.

RotoExperts.com Phoenix Preview: Fantasy NASCAR Numbers and More

Scott Engel — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:42:33 -0400

After a week off, Jeff Gordon may not have much more time in the spotlight after his win at Texas. All numbers point to teammate Jimmie Johnson being the dominant driver at Phoenix International Raceway this week, making him a must-start in tiered and salary cap leagues. You simply have to anchor your lineup with Johnson if you can do it.

Johnson is gunning for his fourth consecutive win at Phoenix, and it will be difficult to deny him. The last driver to win four consecutive races? Yep, Johnson, who turned the trick at Lowe’s Motor Speedway from 2004 to 2005. In his win at the site last November, Johnson posted a near-perfect Driver Rating of 149.9. He led 217 of 313 laps and had 66 of the Fastest Laps Run. Since 2005, covering the past eight races at Phoenix, Johnson has owned the key Loop Data categories.

Since ’05, Johnson leads all drivers at Phoenix in Driver Rating (122.0), Average Running Position (5.0), Fastest Laps Run (266), Average Green-Flag Speed (123.719) and Laps in the Top 15 (2,383, or 95.4 percent). He has notched nine Top 10 finishes and six Top 5s in 11 starts at the site.

“There’s not really anything I can put my finger on,” Johnson said. We’ve just been able to get the car comfortable for me and I’ve just been able to get around the track. I don’t really go into a race thinking about stats.” Fantasy owners do, though, and they’ll lock onto Johnson for sure this week.

Gordon has a win and 15 Top 10s in 20 Phoenix starts, so he should be a strong contender for a Top-5 finish and is a good bet to maintain his lead in the Sprint Cup standings, even if he doesn’t push Johnson for the win. His DR of 100.3 since '05 at Phoenix is only fifth-best among current drivers, and his ARP of 9.8 is fourth-best.

Johnson may get more of a challenge from Richard Childress Racing Drivers this week. The RCR cars feature a few drivers that are among a select group that may perform better than they have so far in 2009.

Kevin Harvick (2006 sweep) and Jeff Burton have won back-to-back races at Phoenix in the past. Harvick and Burton haven’t been among the better fantasy choices so far in 2009, but this is a good site to gamble on them.

Harvick has two wins, three Top 5s and six Top 10s in 12 Phoenix starts. Since ’05, he also ranks second among all drivers in DR (105.4), ARP (7.9) and Laps in the Top 15 (2,113, or 84.6 percent). Burton has 11 Top 10s in 19 Phoenix starts. He isn’t a prime figure in recent Loop Data categories, but you have to like him for a Top 10 finish, and he may even lead some laps.

Let’s also not overlook RCR’s Clint Bowyer, who finished second at the site last April and fifth in April of 2006. Bowyer endured bad luck in the second races of 2006 and 2007 that ruined possible strong finishes.

Carl Edwards has also frustrated his fantasy owners to this point of the season, but like Harvick and Burton, he appears ready to rise above his earlier performances in 2009 this week. Edwards has only one Top 5 in his first seven races. He has never won at Phoenix, but since ‘05, his DR of 103.3 ranks third-best among all drivers, and he ranks second in Average Green Flag Speed (123.525) and third in Fastest Laps Run (181). He has four Top 5s and six Top 10s in nine Phoenix starts.

Edwards’ Roush-Fenway teammate, Greg Biffle, has also been inconsistent so far this season, but like the RCR guys and Edwards, he should be tabbed to perform above expectations this week. He finished third at Texas and should be able to build on the positive momentum, even with the off week. Biffle has finished in the Top 10 in two of the past three Phoenix events. Since ’05, he ranks fourth in DR (100.5), and second of the Fastest Laps Run (257).

Kurt Busch has been mostly a pleasant surprise so far this season, and has to be a primo choice in tiered and salary cap leagues. Busch is one of two drivers, Harvick being the other, to score a perfect DR at Phoenix. Busch pulled the feat off in 2005; Harvick did it a year later. Busch has six Top 10s in 12 Phoenix starts. Since ‘05, his ARP of 9.5 is third-best among all drivers. His DR of 99.2 during that span is sixth-best among all drivers.

Mark Martin doesn’t quite look like he will contend for a victory any time soon, but recent finishes at Phoenix indicate he should be a very good pick for a strong finish overall. In his past seven races at the site, he has a DR of 96.0. Tony Stewart should be dependable again. He has eight Top 10s in 14 Phoenix starts, and a DR of 98.9 since ‘05.

Kyle Busch has led all drivers in Quality Passes at Phoenix since 2005 (238). NASCAR defines Quality Passes as passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green-flag conditions. Denny Hamlin has four Top-10 finishes in seven Phoenix starts, and a DR of 96.1 since ’05.

Among the lesser-priced drivers, David Reutimann has never finished better than 18th in three Phoenix starts, but with his average finish of 15.0 so far this season, there’s no real way to justify “garaging” him. (There’s no bench in racing.)

A.J. Allmendinger (84.1 DR) looks like a quality choice again. He finished 16th in his one Cup start at the site last season. Marcos Ambrose, who has been rising above expectations so far, has a DR of 70.7 at Phoenix, 22nd among all drivers. He finished 18th in his only Cup start at the site last season.

For my list of Top 25 rankings for Phoenix and a link to the podcast preview, click here.

RotoExperts.com Texas Preview: Fantasy NASCAR Numbers and More

Scott Engel — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:48:06 -0400

The question on the minds of many NASCAR fans is when will Jeff Gordon’s resurgence translate into a long-awaited victory? The drought has now reached 47 Sprint Cup events.

Fantasy players, however, aren’t looking at anything but the bright side. Gordon may have not won yet in 2009, but he is keeping his owners atop their league standings early, and they will continue to ride his wave of early-season success, even if victories seemingly continue to slip through his grasp.

Gordon has led the Cup series in Top fives (four), Top 10s (five), Driver Rating (119.6), Average Running Position (5.4) and Fastest Laps Run (191) throughout the first six events of the ’09 season.

Yet Texas Motor Speedway is only one of two tracks at which he has never been in Victory Lane. His DR of 86.9 is only 12th best among active drivers in the past eight races dating back to 2005.

He has eight Top 10s and six Top fives at the site in 16 starts. So while Gordon is a fine choice in any format this week, past stats indicate he isn’t likely to challenge for a win at Texas.

A sentimental choice would be Dale Earnhardt Jr., who won the first event of his career at Texas, and will surely spur some warm memories for his fans. Submitting a solid fantasy lineup, though, is not in line with emotions, as any experienced player knows.

Earnhardt should deliver a strong finish, based on what Loop data outlines. Since 2005, he leads all active drivers in Laps in the Top 15 (2,223, or 82.9 percent) and Quality Passes (308 – passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green-flag conditions).

His DR of 96.0 is sixth-best. Earnhardt should push for a Top Five finish, but don’t expect any heroics.

Carl Edwards swept both Texas events in 2008, so he’s going to be a very popular pick this week. However, he has yet to show the ability to make a strong bid for a win this season, so I wouldn’t overrate him as a one-week selection in salary cap-style and tiered games.

If Edwards wins again, it gives you more license to start using him as a fantasy team anchor again, but based on his somewhat disappointing start to the season, I would not plug him in over other top-rated drivers like Jimmie Johnson and Gordon.

Edwards has won three times in Texas, but has not finished in the Top 10 in any of his other eight starts at the site.

He does lead in Fastest Laps Run (254) at TMS since ’05 and is fourth in DR (102.3), so he should certainly land in the Top 10 and will challenge for a Top 5.

It’s hard to not like anyone but Jimmie Johnson as the outright top choice for Texas, based on his recent results. Johnson has eight Top 10s and five Top 5s in 11 TMS starts. Since ’05, he leads all drivers at TMS in DR (104.7) and Average Green Flag-Speed (172.797 miles per hour).

Kyle Busch (94.9) ranks only seventh in DR (94.9), but after a disappointing outing at Martinsville, Busch is a significant threat to rebound in a major way at Texas. He has finished sixth or better in four of his past five Texas starts.

Loop Data also indicates Matt Kenseth has a good chance to bounce back this week, but keep him out of your lineup until you actually see him revisit the top of the field. For those who have no choice but to go with Kenseth in leagues that used straight or snake drafts, past results are encouraging.

He has eight Top 10s in 13 TMS starts. Since ‘05, he ranks second in DR (104.2), Average Running Position (9.6) and Lapis in the Top 15 (2,115, or 78.9 percent).

Tony Stewart is not a top-tier driver in some formats, making him a prominent “bargain”. Stewart has performed very respectably in his first season as an owner/driver. He has eight Top 10s in 13 Texas starts. Since ’05, he leads all drivers in Average Running Position at TMS (9.5), and is third in DR (103.1).

Denny Hamlin has five Top 10s in seven TMS starts, so you should keep him locked in this week as well.

Martin Truex Jr. ranks eighth in DR since ’05 at Texas (94.6), but he has been virtually invisible so far this year and should not be in your lineup yet. Greg Biffle (91.9) is ninth, but he has been unreliable early in the schedule, and should only be used if you have no other reasonable alternatives.

Clint Bowyer (90.8) ranks 10th, and should continue to build on a rather surprisingly strong start in ’09. Many “experts”, including myself, didn’t see Bowyer making such as smooth transition to a new team so quickly.

When looking for lower-ranked drivers, you must stick with David Reutimann, who finished 10th in the second Texas event in 2008. Casey Mears has a DR of 83.2 at TMS, but it’s obvious he can’t be counted to build on that.

Jamie McMurray has a DR of 81.9 and six Top 10 finishes in 10 TMS starts, so he is a must-have among the mid to lower-range guys. McMurray finished third in the second TMS race last year. Juan Pablo Montoya has four Top 15 finishes already in ’09, and his DR of 77.7 is 19th.

Bobby Labonte has an average finish of 24.1 at TMS, and is a good option when you are looking for the biggest sleepers this week. Labonte, a Corpus Christi native, was inducted into the Texas Motorsports Hall of Fame this week.

For more in-depth analysis on the upcoming Cup race, plus my Top 25 for Texas, click for the deluxe preview here.

Diamond Drafting: Late Spring Bargain Basement Sales

Scott Engel — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 11:54:13 -0400

If you’re drafting in the final few days before the regular season starts, there are two things you need to do.

The first is to make sure you download the FREE demo of RotoExperts.com’s Diamond Draft software. Once you test it out, you will agree it’s the most unique draft assistance tool you can land to execute a stellar selection process.

Second, you need to get caught up on the latest news coming out of the final days of spring training. There are some good, possibly late-round and low-bid picks popping up, and nifty additions for those playing in AL- and NL-only leagues.

If your league has already drafted, it’s time to start hitting the free agent list for these players:

SP Anthony Reyes, Cleveland Indians

He nailed down the final spot in the Cleveland rotation after allowing only one earned run in his first 12 innings pitched in exhibition play.

DD pinpoints Reyes as a “definite sleeper in all leagues,” and projects him to win 12 games, with a 4.07 ERA. You can easily sneak him by in some leagues.

MI Emilio Bonifacio, Florida Marlins

The Marlins gave him a long look at third base this spring and he should at least figure into the mix as a utility man, which makes him worth adding in NL-only leagues.

Bonifacio stole 21 bases at the Triple-A level last year, and DD notes his speed “rates at either a 70 or 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale.”

Florida wants to get Bonifacio at-bats to take advantage of his wheels, so consider him a very late, and cheap, source of stolen bases in NL-only leagues.

SP Ross Ohlendorf, Pittsburgh Pirates

He put the exclamation point on an outstanding spring on Monday, allowing only one run to the Reds in just over five innings of work. Ohlendorf has locked up the fourth spot in the Pirates rotation with a 0.87 spring ERA.

Ohlendorf has shown promise to pitch respectably at the minor league level, and there’s a good chance he'll finally be a respectable major leaguer in 2009. He sported a 3.65 ERA in his first 12 Triple-A starts in 2008.

You certainly have to target him for the back of your rotation in NL-only leagues.

SP Alfredo Simon, Baltimore Orioles

If you’re hurting for pitching help in an AL-only league, you have to give him a look.

He’s been a pleasant surprise for Baltimore this spring (1.13 ERA in 16 innings pitched through March 30), and likely sewed up a spot in the rotation after allowing just one run in six innings on Monday against the Mets.

It remains to be seen if his good spring can carry into the regular season, but why not take the shot? You can always drop him if he stops overachieving.

OF Jordan Schafer, Atlanta Braves

His strong spring forced the trade of Josh Anderson to Detroit, with a batting average near .400 for much of the exhibition season.

He is expected to start in center field for the Braves and can be had in the later rounds of mixed league drafts. DD marked his ETA as 2009, and was right on point.

Schafer has yet to play above Double-A ball, but he's being fast-tracked and can offer double digits in both home runs and steals.

OF/CI Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals

Savvy fantasy leaguers are hot on him as the Royals have experimented with Teahen at second base this spring.

Teahen has exploded as a result, hitting .519 with six homers through March 30, and the Royals want to keep his bat in the lineup, even if they endure some pain as he continues to learn in the field.

Teahen’s versatility in terms of eligibility makes him even more attractive. If you play in a league that is not filled with expert types, you may be able to nab Teahen on the cheap.

DD projects him to hit 13 home runs, and you can certainly use that in AL-only leagues, even if his production starts to drop once the regular season begins.

SP Brett Anderson, Oakland A's

A top prospect, Anderson fashioned a 2-1 record with a 2.86 ERA in seven appearances through March 30. DD notes he has “rare command and polish” for a 21 year-old.

Anderson and Trevor Cahill are both viewed as Oakland’s future staff anchors, and could start to pay dividends in 2009.

In larger mixed leagues, take the shot and don’t hesitate to bid a few bucks on either guy in an AL-only auction.

DD dares to proclaim Cahill as a possible top-of-the-rotation starter for 2009.

OF Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

He will begin the season in the minors, but may not stay there for long.

DD expects him to be called up by the All-Star break and projects the hot prospect to steal 13 bases. He was hitting .423 with two homers and seven runs batted in through March 30.

McCutchen stole 34 bases at Triple-A last year, so draft him and stash him. He’ll be tougher to get in NL-only leagues with very experienced competition.

1B Travis Ishikawa, San Francisco Giants

He was hitting .355 with six homers and 14 RBIs through March 30, making it clear he is locked in as the Giants starting first baseman.

But be warned, he may cool off somewhat in the regular season without much protection in the San Francisco lineup, and his home park may eat up a lot of possible long balls.

Ishikawa did hit .310 with 16 home runs in 171 at-bats at Triple-A Fresno last year, and DD projects him to hit .288, so he certainly won’t hurt you.

3B David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals

It looks like he is slated to start at third base for the Cards while Troy Glaus is out.

Freese hit .306 with 26 home runs at Triple-A last year, and was hitting .342 with six homers through March 30.

DD projects Freese to hit just below .290, so you know you will get solid production while you can use him.

Download the FREE demo of Diamond Draft here. Scott Engel has won two Fantasy Sports Trade Association Experts League Championships and three Fantasy Sports Magazine Experts League Championships. E-mail Scott at scotte@rotoexperts.com.

Martinsville Preview: Fantasy NASCAR Numbers and More from RotoExperts.com

Scott Engel — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 10:07:28 -0400

After some eyebrow-raising early results, things appear to be returning to normal in the NASCAR world, and that means setting fantasy lineups and watching for optimum finishes should become less stressful.

Sure, a wreck can always throw your standings out of whack for a brief period, but all you can control is entering the best lineup possible. The best drivers are rising to the top of the field now, and making it clear they can anchor fantasy teams for several weeks to come.

Until further notice, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson are the best drivers you can build your team around. The season is long and these guys may cool off at some point, but for now, you have to ride with them, especially in salary cap and tiered leagues.

In leagues that used straight drafts, don’t give up, as other top drivers can make your team surge later in the year.

Johnson was tabbed as a “must avoid” pick at Bristol based on his past history there and a disappointing start to the season, until last week’s event. Johnson made a major statement that he is ready to regain his championship form by notching a third-place finish at what was historically regarded as one of his worst tracks.

He now heads to one of his best tracks, Martinsville, where he is a prime pick for a strong finish. He will likely battle Gordon for the win, and while Gordon sits atop the Cup standings, victories continue to elude him, so Johnson appears to be the better choice of the two this week.

Johnson and Gordon have combined to win nine of the past 12 Martinsville events. Johnson has won five times at Martinsville during that span, Gordon four. They also rank first and second in Driver Rating covering the past eight races since 2005.

Johnson’s DR is 124.7, Gordon’s 124.0. Johnson’s average finish of 5.6 at Martinsville is his second-best at any track. He leads all drivers in Average Running Position (6.4) and Laps in the Top 15 (3,579, or 89.3 percent) at the site since ’05. he also ranks second in Fastest Laps Run (446) and Average Green-Flag Speed (91.462 miles per hour).

He has 13 Top 10s in 14 Martinsville starts, easily making him the No. 1 must-start this week.

Gordon leads all active drivers with seven wins in seven poles at the site. He has 26 Top 10s and 23 Top Fives in 32 Martinsville starts, making him 1A to Johnson’s No. 1 status as a lock for this week.

His average finish of 6.9 at the site is his best at any track. Since ‘05, he leads all drivers at Martinsville in Fastest Laps Run (467), Average Green Flag Speed (91.520) and Quality Passes (passes of cars in the Top 15 under green-flag conditions, 220). He also ranks second in Average Running Position (6.8) and Laps in the Top 15 (3,539, or 88.3 percent).

Kyle Busch has historically been inconsistent at Martinsville but, like Johnson he can simply buck the trends in one event. Cumulative past stats mean less with this Busch brother than other drivers, as he has obviously raised his performance levels over the past two seasons.

Brake problems doomed Kyle to 38th and 29th-place finishes at the site last year. Yet he finished fourth at the site in both 2007 races. He has four Top 10s in eight Martinsville starts. His DR of 90.6 is only ninth-best since ’05.

Yet Kyle’s problems last year must simply be written off as bad luck, and in tiered leagues, you must get the most out of him earlier in the schedule, as he comes off an impressive win at Bristol and better results later in the season certainly are not guaranteed.

Outside of those “Big Three”, you must strongly consider Denny Hamlin, who finished second at Bristol. He seemed to be building up to a quality finish last week, as he finished sixth in the second race of the schedule, then placed 13th in the fourth event of the season. Hamlin has six Top 10s in seven Martinsville starts.

He has an average finish of 8.9 at the site, and his DR of 101.3 is fifth-best among active drivers. Most importantly, he won the first race at Martinsville in 2008.

Tony Stewart should certainly be considered for a Top-10 finish, even though he has been somewhat inconsistent early under his own new team banner. Stewart has 11 Top 10 finishes in 20 Martinsville starts.

Since ’05, he ranks third in DR (113.7), Average Running Position (7.4), Fastest Laps Run (312), Average Green-Flag Speed (91.356), Laps in the Top 15 (3,471, 86.1 pct), and Quality Passes (193).

Loop Data suggests Dale Earnhardt Jr. could be a strong finisher this week, but his underwhelming overall start to the season says you should steer clear of him in favor of other top drivers for now.

For those who have no choice but to use him though, it’s encouraging to know he ranks fourth in DR (102.4) at the site since ’05. He also leads all drivers in Green-Flag Passes (396) and is second in Quality Passes (219) during that span.

Among the lower-ranked drivers, it’s important to note Jamie McMurray ranks sixth in DR at Martinsville since ’05 (88.2). He has seven Top 10 finishes in 12 Martinsville starts. Juan Pablo Montoya (80.4) ranks 11th in DR.

He has never finished lower than 16th in four Martinsville starts. Brian Vickers (72.8) ranks 19th, and David Ragan (72.5) is 20th. A.J. Allmendinger finished 15th in the second race at the site last year, and Michael Waltrip was 18th. Paul Menard has finished in the Top 25 in two of three Martinsville starts. Menard must qualify in on time.

For more analysis and my list of picks for Martinsville, click on the deluxe preview here.

Be sure to listen to ROTORACING on BlogTalkRadio with Scott Engel every Wednesday at 3:30 pm ET. You can hear the archived version o the Martinsville preview show right here.

Diamond Drafting: Fantasy Baseball's Underrated and Overlooked Hitters

Scott Engel — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 14:24:00 -0400

When I draft these days, and it’s very often, I’m seeing some very good batters slip further than they should. Using RotoExperts’ Diamond Draft software, I have been able to identify and target certain hitters in many drafts, grabbing good value performers who are being overlooked by many of my competitors.

Getting exactly who you want is never easy, especially in snake drafts, where you always have to adjust on the run. Yet I have been willing to take these guys exactly when I want them, and I’m expecting very good results.

I’ll say it again. If you think I’m trying to sell you something, I am. Because I want you to win your league. Diamond Draft is proven and reliable.

When you pick a few of these hitters, you may elicit chuckles or reactions of surprise. Some will be greeted with indifference. But you’re not out to impress your leaguemates. Your goal is to beat them, and by nabbing these underrated standouts, none of the dissenting draft day opinions of your opponents will matter in the end.

Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia

He’s the best example of a player who is going to produce excellent Rotisserie numbers, yet he simply doesn’t excite many owners. I want to absolutely make sure I have Werth on my teams, and don’t care what anyone else thinks. So when I take him in the seventh or eighth round, I always seem to conjure up another drafter who says “Werth? Really?” I don’t bother explaining myself.

He is often the highest-ranked player on my board when I take him, and I’m drafting him when I want him, not when other people think I should. I’m not waiting until a few rounds later just because he may fall that far, because I reduce my chances of landing him.

Werth is Diamond Draft’s 15th-ranked outfielder, projected to hit .270 with 29 home runs and 25 steals. Werth naturally ends up on my roster as my second outfielder, and those are outstanding projections for a player slotted there. I have complete confidence he can approach those numbers, as increased at-bats in 2009 will lead to impressive overall production.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego

He sometimes isn’t considered among the top picks at first because of his home park, a perception that works to my/your advantage when you want to grab him. Gonzalez is DD’s fifth-ranked first baseman, projected to hit .291 with 39 homers and 120 runs batted in.

I have been able to get him past the ninth round in many snake drafts, and landed him for a very reasonable $20 in an NL-only auction last week ($230 cap). I’ll see Derrek Lee auctioned off for nearly the same price on occasion. Whatever he doesn’t do from the power perspective at home is well balanced by how he performs on the road.

Mike Fontenot, 2B, Chicago

He is possibly the single-most undervalued player in fantasy baseball right now. Fontenot has nailed down the second base job, yet he somehow went for one dollar in the same NL-only auction I previously mentioned. DD projects Fontenot to hit .295, with 14 homers and 73 RBIs. My buddy Brad Evans of Yahoo! Sports wrote a great piece on Fontenot, which truly illustrates his fantasy potential for 2009.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B, Astros

Yes, he is a notorious injury risk. Yet I can grab him for only a few bucks in an NL-only auction, and have been taking him past Round 20 in mixed snake drafts. I’ll certainly take him for the batting average and a boost in stolen bases. DD projects Matsui to hit .290 with 25 steals. He looks mighty nice next to Fontenot in my middle infield.

Dallas McPherson, 3B, Marlins

I’ve seen him go completely undrafted in a few mixed leagues. That’s understandable, as some have vowed to never be teased by him again. But McPherson has a legitimate shot to win a starting job and his power is certainly not in question. He can hit more than 20 homers for sure with extensive playing time, as DD refers to him as a "Mike Jacobs clone."

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers

He isn’t considered a “sexy” pick, and often falls even further than Werth. I’ve been able to easily get Ethier in double-digit rounds of snake drafts. Published reports indicate he is ticketed to hit third in front of Manny Ramirez. That only boosts his value further. DD has him projected to hit .309 with 25 HRs.

Shin Soo-Choo, OF, Cleveland

I’ve seen him drop near the 20th round in some mixed leagues. That may seem outrageous to more experienced fantasy leaguers, but it also depends on who you are playing with. Not everyone I draft with is an expert, and Choo will slip far in some leagues where the competition isn’t intense. DD projects Choo to hit .296 with 20 HRs and 90 RBIs.

Kendry Morales, 1B/OF, Angels

Another player who often goes ignored in mixed leagues, Morales is set to take advantage of the departure of Mark Teixeira. He has displayed significant power this spring, is reportedly slotted to hit fifth, and DD projects him to .283 with 25 homers. What a bargain!

Daniel Murphy, OF, Mets

He’s a very promising pure hitter who will emerge as a fan and fantasy favorite this season. I have landed Murphy for as a low as three dollars in an NL-only auction, and have seen him slip to reserve rounds in other drafts. Personally, I’m expecting a .280-plus average with more than 15 homers and over 80 RBI.

Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins

DD has him projected to steal 34 bases. There is no doubting his speed, and he’s a great bargain at the end of mixed league drafts. So is Nyjer Morgan of the Pirates, who has recently started to show signs of life in spring training after a bad start. Morgan is projected to start in left field and steal 27 bases. I procured him for one dollar in my recent NL-only draft.

John Baker, C, Marlins

I am treating catchers much like defense/special teams in fantasy football this season. I’ll leave them until the end of the draft, and after doing my homework, I’ll simply take a good value that has been passed by. I don’t get caught up in positional scarcity at catcher, so I will avoid taking Russell Martin or Brian McCann early on.

I don’t see why you should take a catcher earlier when other players at other positions give you much better stats. I draft for the best overall hitting numbers possible, regardless of position.

Baker has enjoyed a very good spring and there has been talk the Marlins are so comfortable with him, he was a reason they passed on Ivan Rodriguez. DD has him projected to hit .292 with 11 HRs and 68 RBI, and I will take that for one dollar. Baker and Jesus Flores of the Nationals are two solid picks at the end of a draft, even in two-catcher leagues.

Try the FREE Demo of Diamond Draft here. Also be sure to listen to Scott Engel’s Experts Edge on Thursday night at 8 pm ET, when he interviews New York Yankees pitcher Phil Hughes on BlogTalkRadio.com.

Angles From Engel: Cutler and Pass-Catchers

Scott Engel — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 07:50:03 -0400

The Jay Cutler soap opera has enveloped the NFL community during the recent weeks of the offseason, overshadowing the upcoming draft, and actually grabbing more headlines than Mr. Controversy himself, Terrell Owens.

Yet, we at RotoExperts.com, choose to tackle the issue from the fantasy perspective, instead of repeating what has been said many times already.

While the Broncos' saga makes for compelling news in regular NFL circles, fantasy players shouldn’t speculate much on how a move to another team might affect his value. It likely won’t. Cutler is at a point in his career where he’s destined to put up above-average fantasy numbers for years to come, no matter what uniform he wears.

Cutler is a gunner who is about to enter his prime, and while there is a realistic chance the Broncos may miss out on the best years of his pro run, fantasy leaguers can look forward to using him for improving and outstanding production in upcoming seasons.

Cutler threw 25 touchdown passes in 2008, and he should be even better in 2009. His skills, plus a desire to make the Broncos regret ever considering dealing him, can motivate him to enter elite status, or close to it in 2009.

Hell hath no fury like a promising quarterback scorned. If he stays in Denver, Cutler will be highly motivated to show up Josh McDaniels, if they can somehow co-exist.

Even if he ends up elsewhere, there will be no worries. Cutler is the type of passer who doesn’t need a terrific supporting cast to make him better. Instead, he can make his teammates better, and raise the levels of production of those around him.

If Cutler is indeed dealt, his new top wide receiver will get a healthy boost. I’m thinking about guys like Bernard Berrian, Jerricho Cotchery and—oh my—Calvin Johnson. It’s all pure speculation, but it’s fun to consider where he may end up. No new landing spot would surprise me, no matter what rumors are spread or what is said publicly.

Of course, Denver is unlikely to make a move that wouldn’t bring a quality quarterback, or the opportunity to draft one, in return.

This means that destinations in Detroit, Minnesota or even Chicago seem somewhat unlikely, unless a creative deal can be engineered. It may just be a matter of time now, as Pat Bowlen has openly admitted there is a chance the team may lose Cutler.

It’s a shame the Broncos groomed him to be their next standout passer, only to lose him when he truly blossoms. Denver will need someone reliable to throw to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Marshall could already be facing another suspension in 2009, but he’s still a top-level fantasy WR as long as he plays with a quality QB.

While Marshall and Royal await the possibility of losing their QB, Trent Edwards can look forward to the “gift” of Owens—who signed a one-year deal with Buffalo.

It’s actually a good move for all involved in the passing game, since Owens will have to prove himself in one season, and should be highly motivated to earn more money next year if he put up quality stats.

Owens moves into a situation where he can demand the ball and have a young QB eagerly deliver it. Lee Evans has no reason to gripe; he now has the outstanding receiving partner he’s longed for.

Hopefully, none of Owens’ personality will rub off on Evans, and the embattled veteran’s experience and skills make him a good teacher for Buffalo’s still-developing big-play guy—even if Owens only leads by example.

Owens can still command much defensive respect, and he retains a great knack for making important plays. You can look to him as an outstanding WR2 in ’09, capable of catching eight-plus TD passes.

Evans, too, should be more reliable next year, and could soar past the 70-catch mark while realistically shooting for seven or more TD receptions, with many of significant length.

Edwards is a solid game manager, a smart young man, and will value the football and let his WRs make plays for him. Edwards now gets a boost to being a top fantasy backup, and when Marshawn Lynch (another suspension candidate) is available, he’ll naturally receive less defensive attention and can finish off scoring drives more often.

Lynch could have a very impressive year in ‘09 if he avoids further trouble and reaps the benefits of a new, more balanced offense.

Tony Romo won’t miss Owens, as Roy Williams now has an opportunity to play with a standout passer and re-emerge as a prominent fantasy player. Problems at QB during his Detroit tenure affected Williams’ production in terms of consistency, and injuries were also an issue.

But a new life now begins in Glamour Central, and Williams should be drafted as a top 15 WR in ‘09, with the potential to post top 10 numbers.

Patrick Crayton will be a good later-round pick if he can nail down the other starting job, but Miles Austin has real upside, and is going to be a popular sleeper pick during the upcoming season.

Torry Holt’s departure from St. Louis was not unexpected, yet it must still be sinking in for Rams fans that their signature player is gone. The rumor mill has linked Holt to both the Titans and Jaguars.

Leaving St. Louis was a good move for Holt, as he could no longer sufficiently operate against top cover corners without a solid QB and offense issues around him. Holt is better off going to a team that won’t depend on him as a primary option—from the fantasy perspective—but he seems destined to land a premier slot somewhere, which may not help improve his value at all for ‘09.

Holt still has something left, maybe more than Marvin Harrison, and both players are going to be targets of inexperienced fantasy drafters who know mostly big names and don’t do their homework.

Seattle’s signing of T.J. Houshmandzadeh made Bobby Engram expendable, but the possession veteran should prove to be a needed safety valve for Matt Cassel in Kansas City.

Engram is a chain-mover who only really has appeal in point-per-reception formats. His presence, however, will be good for Dwayne Bowe, who will quickly discover he can absorb a lot from the affable elder.

Adding Engram ensures Bowe of having another impressive year, and strengthens Matt Cassel’s supporting cast. Cassel won’t be posting the type of numbers he did in New England, but he’ll be very sound for fantasy purposes as he looks for Bowe, Engram, and of course Tony Gonzalez.

It’s now an appealing passing mix in Kansas City. Two very experienced guys who can still make tough catches, and a rising playmaker who has a nose for the end zone.

Joey Galloway landed a spot with the Patriots, and while he’s in his twilight years and is an injury concern, he’ll be a fine plug-in player for the Pats. When available, Galloway still shows the separation speed and downfield gears of a 25-year-old.

Once Tom Brady approaches his past form, he’ll connect with Galloway for some big plays when the matchup is favorable. Peg Galloway in the late rounds for occasional use. He’s going to be much more explosive than the departed Jabar Gaffney.

In a minor move that may be overrated by some looking for scraps of hope at tight end, L.J. Smith joined the Ravens. The addition of Smith gives Todd Heap more opportunities to block, and further denotes you shouldn’t waste a pick on him come draft day.

Smith can be an occasional red zone target for Joe Flacco, as the ex-Eagle has never been much more than a short scoring threat—and a risky one at that. I’ll likely avoid drafting either Baltimore tight end in my ‘09 drafts.

We’ll have to simply wait and see if Matt Jones gets another opportunity to play elsewhere, but does it really matter? No way.

The Jags continue to be cursed since Jimmy Smith moved on, and I’ll be looking for them to make highly notable improvements at the position, even if it’s through focusing on rookies.

Hopefully, the Cutler nonsense will soon be resolved so I can focus more on the draft. Yet something tells me the situation could actually be rectified in New York in April.

Scott Engel is readying his order for a T.J. Houshmandzadeh jersey. He wants to make light of the fact that “Hasselbeck to Houshmandzadeh” will be the longest TD pass thrown in 2009 in terms of pure copy. E-mail Scott at scotte@rotoexperts.com.

RotoExperts.com Bristol Preview: By the Fantasy NASCAR Numbers

Scott Engel — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 06:11:28 -0400

After a week off, with extra time to prepare for your fantasy baseball drafts, it’s time to get back to the business of setting your Fantasy NASCAR lineups.

It’s been no easy task throughout the first four events, yet it’s too early in the season to get discouraged. While there have been some significant surprises, such as the opening win by Matt Kenseth, and the resurgence of Kurt Busch, past trends should go a long way towards helping you lock in your squad for the Food City 500.

Kenseth has cooled off in the past two events, with a Driver Rating of 55.3 and an Average Running Position of 28.0. Yet Bristol Motor Speedway is the perfect venue for him to channel a turnaround.

He has won twice at the site, with seven top-five finishes and 11 top-10s in 18 starts. Most notably, he leads all competitors in Driver Rating (105.5) in the past eight races since Loop Data was first recorded by NASCAR in 2005. During that span, he also leads all drivers in Laps in the Top 15 (3,534 or 88.1 percent), and is second in Average Running Position (8.4) and Fastest Laps Run (223).

Earning his third victory of the season, though, may prove to be a daunting task for Kenseth. It may be difficult for any driver to deny Jeff Gordon of a long overdue victory this weekend.

Gordon has displayed outstanding momentum early in the schedule, and is clearly building towards a win, which simply can’t evade him for much longer. Gordon has two second-place finishes in his past three races, and is a five-time winner at BMS.

His DR of 103.2 is third-best since ’05, and he leads all drivers in Average Running Position (8.2) during that span. He also ranks second in Laps in the Top 15 (3,454, or 86.1 percent), and Quality Passes (148).

NASCAR defines Quality Passes as passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green-flag conditions. Combining Gordon’s early success this season, with past history, makes him a strong fantasy pick for this week and a prime candidate to end up in Victory Lane.

If Gordon is seriously challenged for the win, it may not be Kenseth, but Kevin Harvick that pushes him the hardest. Often, it seems like you never know which version of Harvick will show up in any given week, but judging by his past results at BMS, you’ll see the “Happy” one this week.

Harvick finished second and fourth at BMS last season. He has nine top-fives, and 11 top-10s in 16 Bristol starts. Since ’05, he ranks second in FR at Bristol (103.7), and third in Average Running Position (9.7), Laps in the Top 15 (3,243, 80.9 pct.) and Quality Passes (147). Harvick may not lead for many laps, but expect to see him near the top of the field at the end of the race.

The one prominent driver to avoid this week is Jimmie Johnson. He is not only off to a disappointing start in 2009, but Johnson also has not been impressive in his recent starts at BMS. He has not finished in the top-10 in any of the past four races at Bristol, and has placed outside the top 20 in four of his past seven races at the site.

Johnson has an average finish of 17.4 at BMS, making the site his fourth-worst track on the Sprint Cup circuit in that category. The stat that really puts an exclamation point on “reserve” fantasy status for this week, though, is his DR (73.0). It’s Johnson’s lowest rating at any track on the circuit.

Jeff Burton is the defending champion of this event, but he only has an average finish of 18.5 at BMS, with eight top-fives, and 12 top-10s in 30 starts.

Carl Edwards won the second Bristol race last year, but he has four top-10s in nine BMS starts, with a DR of 92.0 (eighth-best), so he may not be a strong contender to earn a victory this time.

The Atlanta winner, Kurt Busch, will be poised for another strong run. He also has five BMS victories, with nine top-10s in 16 starts. Busch has bounced back nicely early in 2009, and even if he doesn’t make a run at a second consecutive win, he’ll be a very good fantasy selection again this week. Look for him to finish in the top-five.

Greg Biffle has seven top-10s in 12 Bristol starts, so he will be a solid fantasy selection for the event. He leads all Drivers in Quality Passes (166) at the site since ’05.

Kyle Busch is a very strong start, too. He has five top-10s in eight BMS starts, and finished second in the fall race at the site in 2008. Tony Stewart has the fourth-best DR at Bristol since ’05 (102.3).

It’s very important to note that this is the final race in which the top 35 in owner’s points will be based on 2008 results. After the BMS event, those drivers not in the top 35 will have to qualify on time for the weekly race fields.

You should give strong consideration to drivers who are in dangerous positions in the standings, especially when you are looking for mid-range or bargain picks. Mark Martin sits in the wobbly 35th position, as bad luck has plagued him early in ’09. Martin has a DR of 73.9 at BMS, and has only one top-10 finish in his past 12 Bristol races. Yet a major sense of urgency should propel him to a solid finish.

Sam Hornish Jr. is 31st, and his DR of 46.0 at BMS suggests you should steer clear of him at all costs. Ryan Newman (32nd, 82.8 DR), should deliver a respectable finish. Joey Logano (33rd) makes his BMS debut and will challenge for a top 25 spot.

Aric Almirola sits in 36th, and his DR of 67.6 is 21st among all drivers, making him a top value choice for this week. The best lower-tier driver to pinpoint, however, is David Reutimann. His DR of 67.7 is 20th-best since ‘05, and he has finished 29th and 25th in his two Bristol starts.

For my full top 25 for Bristol, plus additional analysis on this week's event and our BlogTakRadio podcast fully previewing the race, visit RotoExperts.com right here.

Angles from Engel: Seahawks Rebuilding Effort Leads Fantasy Football Storylines

Scott Engel — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 01:17:11 -0500

It’s too early to project how certain signings and trades will color fantasy football outlooks for the 2009 season. There are still more transactions to come, and the NFL Draft is still too far away to know how many ballclubs will fill their outstanding needs.

You cannot get too excited or too down about any adds or losses when the squads that will go to training camps are still in the process of being formed.

Yet we at RotoExperts.com realize the fantasy football season never ends for many of you, so we continue to go in-depth on major recent moves during the off-season.

Now that some recent transactions have sunk into our collective minds a bit more, we can step back and analyze them for fantasy purposes while mixing in some important pure NFL perspectives.

A few transactions point to the direction certain teams are heading in when looking to improve their fortunes.

Most notably, Seattle’s big catch of T.J. Houshmandzadeh clearly indicates the offense is headed back to respectability. Reports have circulated that Houshmandzadeh chose Seattle over Minnesota because of its more stable quarterback situation.

Matt Hasselbeck’s 2008 season was an aberration, as a mad rash of injuries at wide receiver and offensive line left him either searching for guys who did not get open, or not having enough time to throw.

Seattle is counting on many key players returning to good health in ’09, and Houshmandzadeh is going to a team that can rebound and provide him with a solid supporting cast.

Hasselbeck will turn 33 during the season, and that is by no means “old” for a quarterback. Houshmandzadeh turns 32, and he isn’t “old” for a wide receiver either.

Hasselbeck is a high-percentage passer, and Houshmandzadeh is a tough possession guy. It’s a very good marriage between the two, who will lean on each other to keep the ball moving. Houshmandzadeh doesn’t back down from facing top cover cornerbacks, and Hasselbeck will make the right throws in his direction.

Nate Burleson is making solid progress in his return from a knee injury, and second-year tight end John Carlson is already established as a player who draws some attention away from the wide receivers.

Seattle can’t count on Deion Branch to stay healthy, but he will only help more when available. It still remains to be seen how Courtney Taylor and Ben Obomanu fit into the WR picture, but the Seahawks may still entertain high hopes for both.

Then there is the matter of whether or not Seattle tabs Michael Crabtree or another top WR in the draft. Crabtree isn’t a speed merchant, but if Burleson returns with no issues, and Branch is back in the picture, Seattle will have a very deep WR corps that can challenge defenses both in high percentage situations and downfield.

The Seahawks aren’t likely to be fully done addressing their WR corps, as one more piece may conceivably come via another veteran acquisition or through the draft. The Houshmandzadeh signing is the fulcrum of a broader goal to have a much better receiving crew.

It still remains to be seen if the Seahawks will upgrade their running game also, as they could trade down and take a much-needed running back to balance the offense.

The offensive line should also be more reliable next season if key players such as Walter Jones and Mike Wahle return intact, and Seattle may also move to further upgrade the area in the upcoming weeks as well.

It may mean retaining the underrated Ray Willis or using an early pick on an offensive tackle. Ultimately, however, Seattle has started to move back towards gaining offensive stability with the Houshmandzadeh signing.

Fantasy-wise, that means Hasselbeck is a serious rebound candidate who will be undervalued in 2009. Look for him to throw close to 25 touchdown passes. Houshmandzadeh will certainly revive his TD totals as well, and should be good for seven to nine scores.

If Seattle doesn’t have a dependable running game again in ’09, he’ll be a near-lock to catch in the neighborhood of 90 passes again. I would at least draft him as a high-level WR2.

Houshmandzadeh’s departure from Cincinnati puts a lot of pressure on Chad Johnson to bounce back, and it’s a veritable crapshoot to determine how he will respond. Johnson is a boom-or-bust pick, and Laveranues Coles won’t be a consistent threat opposite him.

The Bengals re-signed Cedric Benson, but he is a gamble, too, now that he won’t be playing for a new deal like he was last year. Cincinnati’s plan appears to be hoping for the best and rolling the dice.

Cincinnati is also taking something of a chance that Carson Palmer won’t need elbow surgery and is praying he has no setbacks. Drafting Bengals will be a risky move in ’09.

There will certainly be less worries surrounding Tom Brady now that the Patriots have shipped Matt Cassel to Kansas City. Don’t think for a minute that New England would have moved Cassel if they weren’t very confident that Brady is making a good recovery.

He may start slow statistically in ’09, but by the time the key portion of the fantasy schedule rolls around, you’ll be able to count on him as your QB for a championship push.

As for Cassel, he did quite nicely with luxurious surroundings in New England last year. While he does have Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe to work with now, I don’t believe he’ll be able to enjoy the same variety of weapons and support from other units that helped his cause with the Pats.

Cassel won’t stink, but I’m not going to be listing him anywhere near my Top Five fantasy QBs, either. The Cassel move, though, outlines that the Patriots are ready to invest heavily in Brady again, while the Chiefs do have the offensive arrow pointing upwards under Todd Haley. So we won’t be drafting top K.C. players with the same disdain as in the past.

There are still some questions in Tampa Bay about how the quarterback situation will shake out, but even if it’s Luke McCown, he will rely heavily on Kellen Winslow, Jr. Things shouldn’t change too much for Winslow for fantasy purposes. You know what you are getting when he is healthy, but don’t expect him to stay healthy.

Derrick Ward should complement Earnest Graham well, but I’ll take Graham to score more often and be the more valuable fantasy player. Ward, however, will be a top handcuff because of lingering health concerns about Graham.

I thought the departure of Mike Shanahan would cure the RB ills in Denver, but now the additions of LaMont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter and J.J. Arrington only clutter the picture further. Denver simply doesn’t have a RB on the roster right now who projects to be the lead guy.

While two-RB time shares aren’t as difficult to dissect nowadays, this situation makes the Mariners race for a closer look like an easy field to handicap. I still think this team will be just fine with Peyton Hillis as the main man.

Fred Taylor doesn’t clutter up the Patriots RB situation as much as you might think. He’s simply insurance in case Laurence Maroney disappoints again.

Maroney is still New England’s RB of the future, or at least they hope, and if he finally starts to put it together this year, Taylor will be a big-name change-of-pace guy. I’m not going to draft Taylor based on past accomplishments.

Roy Williams is now the main WR in Dallas, and is primed for a renaissance in 2009. I believe the Cowboys will also surround him with another playmaker. If not, Patrick Crayton may now get another chance to operate as a top target for Tony Romo, who can now be more steady without the T.O. distractions.

Miles Austin, though, has shown considerable promise and may be a better option than Crayton. Both are viable late-rounders for ’09.

However, Dallas has now paved the way to rely more heavily on a Marion Barber III/Felix Jones running duo to ease pressure on Romo and maximize the outstanding talents of both RBs. Draft ‘em both with confidence; Jones has stellar upside.

The signings of Nate Washington (Titans), Brandon Jones (49ers) and Bryant Johnson (Lions) don’t move me much from fantasy standpoints. None of the three figure to be more than spot statistical contributors, although Washington can hit the occasional home run on a deep ball.

Jabar Gaffney will be a much less frequent TD option in Denver, and won’t be worth a fantasy draft choice. Sage Rosenfels is an erratic gunner who can be a pretty good fantasy backup and improve the overall production of Bernard Berrian.

He’ll get good pass protection in Minnesota, but he has shaky decision-making skills and won’t be reliable if he starts often. He’ll strictly be a matchup play.

Scott Engel will continue to cover the NFL through the fantasy lens with bi-weekly editions of Angles throughout the off-season. Look for an in-depth breakdown of the Terrell Owens signing in the next edition of Angles. E-mail Scott at scotte@rotoexperts.com.

RotoExperts.com Atlanta Preview: Fantasy NASCAR Numbers and More

Scott Engel — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:04:33 -0500

After three wacky weeks, the Sprint Cup standings and your fantasy league rankings certainly don’t look like you’d expect them to. Be patient, though, especially if you are new to Fantasy NASCAR.

Any experienced player knows there is a better chance of the Florida Marlins selling out a full homestand than Michael Waltrip remaining in the top 12 all season long. There’s my weekly Waltrip shot. I guess I won’t be getting a discount on NAPA Auto Parts any time soon.

Two other early surprises are David Reutimann (fifth in the Cup standings after a fourth place showing at Las Vegas) and Bobby Labonte (10th in the standings after finishing fifth at Vegas).

It’s always good to go with “hot” drivers when you can, especially at bargain rates.

Labonte is a good bet for another solid finish at Atlanta, where he won six times earlier in his career. Labonte is no longer a dominant driver, of course, but his average finish of 16.6 at the site makes him another good lower-ring pick for this week.

Reutimann finished 20th in the first Atlanta race in 2008.

So while neither driver is among the better-ranked competitors in terms of all-important Driver Rating (get the full lowdown on Driver Rating simply by registering for a FREE RotoExperts account, no strings attached), they should continue to fill out the end of your lineups nicely. This is especially true in tiered and salary cap leagues.

Jimmie Johnson has the best DR at Atlanta (112.9), which is the prime Loop Data statistic to be considered every week.

All LD stats cover the past eight races at Atlanta Motor Speedway dating back to 2005, and Johnson also leads in Average Running Position (7.2) and Laps in the top 15 (2,375 or 91.2 percent). He has three wins, nine top 5s and 10 top 10s in 15 AMS starts. He swept both races at the site in 2007, and will likely push for the win this week after another disappointing finish at Vegas (24th).

Carl Edwards has also not lived up to expectations early on, and this can be the week where he starts to truly display his better form.

Atlanta is one of Edwards’ best tracks. He has three wins, five top 5s and seven top 10s in nine AMS starts. His DR of 107.4 also suggests he can dominate at Atlanta this time, and he leads all drivers with 260 of the Fastest Laps Run since ’05. He ranks second in Average Green Flag Speed (174.077) and Laps in the top 15 (2,204, or 84.6 percent) during that span.

Kyle Busch should keep the momentum going from his win at Vegas, even though his 90.2 DR is only ninth best. Busch is the defending champion of this event, and Loop Data doesn’t fully reflect how strongly he can run since leaving Hendrick Motorsports.

Yet Loop Data indicates that Dale Earnhardt Jr. can deliver another solid finish a week after a 10th place finish vaulted him out of the dangerous 35th spot in the car owner’s standings. Earnhardt’s DR of 103.7 is third-best among all drivers since ’05, and he leads all competitors in Average Green Flag Speed (174.094) and Quality Passes (274).

NASCAR defines Quality Passes as passes of cars in the top 15 while under green flag conditions.

Earnhardt now sits in a more comfortable spot in the standings (29th) with two races left before those who aren’t in the top 35 must begin qualifying into the field on time.

Ryan Newman (33rd) and Mark Martin (34th) are in dangerous territory, while Joey Logano, who finished 13th at Vegas, needs to come through with another respectable finish.

Martin ranks 14th in DR (85.1) at AMS since ’05, while Newman is 20th (69.1). Martin has failed to finish in the top 20 in four of his past five Atlanta starts. Still, he is a good pick because of the sense of urgency he will be driving with. Newman, however, has yet to show much with his new team, and should be avoided despite his precarious current positioning.

Jeff Gordon sits atop the standings for the first time since late October of 2007, and it looks like he will win for the first time since the middle of that same month very soon.

Yet he isn’t the best bet to outdo Edwards or Johnson this week, who need the stronger finish more than Gordon. Gordon does have four wins and an average finish of 12.7 at AMS, with 21 top 10s in 33 starts. So he’ll be a good candidate for another solid finish even if he doesn’t finish. His DR of 98.4, however, is seventh best since ’05, and suggests victory will elude him one more time this week.

Tony Stewart’s DR of 101.1 is fourth best since ’05, and he is off to a respectable start is his new owner/driver situation, placing eighth in the standings so far.

In some games, he is not a top-tier or elite-ranked driver, so continue to ride Stewart for the sound finishes. He has two wins, eight top 5s and 12 top 10s in 20 AMS starts.

Greg Biffle has the fifth-best DR at AMS (100.2) and ranks second in Average Running Position (10.2). He has seven top 10s in 12 Atlanta starts.

Further suggesting that premier drivers can fill out the top of the field this week, Matt Kenseth ranks sixth in DR (98.4) and has 11 top 10s in 18 starts. Clint Bowyer currently sits second in the standings, but don’t overrate him based on current Cup positioning. He has an average finish of 15.0, which is certainly respectable, but his DR of 87.0 is 13th.

Kasey Kahne (82.2 DR, 15th) runs hot and cold at AMS. He has a win and five top 10s at Atlanta, but has finished better than 28th just once in his past five races at the site.

Other drivers to consider for the lower tiers of your lineup include Juan Pablo Montoya (76.9 DR, 16th, fifth place at AMS in 2007 debut), Brian Vickers (73.4 DR, 19th), Reed Sorenson (native of Peachtree, Georgia, 67.9 DR), and Robby Gordon (65.4).

David Ragan also finished eighth in the second AMS race last year, while A.J. Allmendinger came in 14th.

For more analysis and in-depth AMS rankings, visit the full RotoExperts.com preview here. You can also listen to my weekly Fantasy NASCAR podcast, RotoRacing, on BlogtalkRadio.com.

Diamond Drafting: Hide the Starting Pitching

Scott Engel — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 12:03:29 -0500

Whether it’s an auction or a snake draft, you must enter every fantasy baseball selection process with a plan. An eternal question has been, how much do you spend or use early picks on pitching as compared to hitting?

In many mock drafts you’ll do this preseason, you won’t often see a pitcher go in the first round if you are in a league with other highly experienced players. Once you get past the first round or two, though, when do you start filling in on your key hurlers? How much should you spend on a top starter or closer in an auction?

RotoExperts’ Diamond Draft software, a proven and dynamic fantasy baseball software program, lays out the suggested default balance between hitting and pitching, and it has worked like a charm for me in mock drafts. DD, which is downloadable in a FREE Demo version, recommends a 67 percent hitting/33 percent pitching budget/roster split.

Using the software throughout your draft, you can identify value pitchers on the go. Using the Low Investment Mound Aces approach and recommendation to punt saves until later in drafts or with low bids, you can still build a very formidable staff. You can build a winner without jumping on guys like Tim Lincecum too early or getting into a bidding war for their services. For the LIMA Plan, we always give a nod to our good friends at Baseball HQ.

Under a $260 league mixed league budget with 5 x 5 Rotisserie scoring, Johan Santana is the highest-valued pitcher in Diamond Draft, at $29.6 dollars when a draft starts. Under Diamond Draft, his value may change throughout the selection process, as DD updates your dollar values on the go.

These dollar assignments are still viewable even for regular snake drafters, to give you a firm idea of player values. Even in a snake draft, seeing that Santana is valued at 29.6 and Lincecum is at 29.1 will likely help me make a tough decision.

To put the pitching values in perspective, eight hitters are ranked ahead of Santana in default Diamond Draft values. This includes Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder, who are projected for 49 and 42 homers, respectively. While Santana gives you peace of mind as a staff anchor, as Lincecum may do as well, elite HR and RBI production stand above getting a No. 1 pitcher in many cases. You can always compensate for any perceived batting average drain later in the draft.

Cole Hamels has a value of 28.5 in DD, but after Santana, Lincecum, and the Philadelphia ace, no other starting pitcher is valued over 25.6. Joe Nathan is the highest valued closer at 14.9, which means avoid him while others bid away. It’s understandable to anchor your staff with one of the “Big Three” starters early, but most of your focus should be on balancing power and speed in the earliest rounds. With one outstanding SP early, the rest of your staff can easily fall into place in the later rounds.

I put the Diamond Draft software to the test in a recent draft on Mock Draft central. This was not an experts draft and will give you a better view of the “average guy” competition you will likely face on draft day.

I had the sixth overall pick, and after taking Miguel Cabrera in the first round, I landed Santana in the second. From there, I decided to leave pitching alone for a while. Santana would pace my staff, and I could follow my plan to build around him.

I personally prefer Santana easily over Lincecum and Hamels. He has the best track record of the three for annual success.

Somewhat underrated standouts Adrian Gonzalez and Carlos Quentin were my next two choices, as I continued to bulk up in HR and RBI production. It didn’t matter that I already had Cabrera, as Gonzalez slid in nicely at a corner infield spot.

Then, using the Diamond Draft “in-draft” total points tab, which tells you where you place in the projected categories or standings at any point in the draft, I saw I seriously needed to catch up in steals. So I happily plucked Jacoby Ellsbury in the fifth. Both DD and I remain confident in my next selection thereafter, Aubrey Huff, and I added the versatile Jayson Werth in the seventh.

I didn’t take my second pitcher until the eighth round (Jon Lester). DD has him as the ninth-ranked starter overall, with a value of 19.8. He is projected to win 18 games, according to the software. DD’s projections have gained widespread user acclaim since 2001. In all, I only took two starting pitchers in my first 14 picks, yet ended up with two outstanding SPs. I nailed Chris Young and Torii Hunter right after Lester.

I landed more solid starters thereafter, adding John Maine, Jered Weaver, Justin Duchscherer, Ubaldo Jimenez, and amazingly, Chien-Ming Wang in Rounds 15 through 19. Maine and Weaver were ranked 26th and 27th overall at SP, according to Diamond Draft. I would have liked to land three closers, but ended up with Kerry Wood and Francisco Cordero, so I won’t be totally punting the category.

DD’s final projections still had me ranked first in projected standings for pitching, with 50.5 Rotisserie points. Combined with 48.0 hitting points (I also swept in Shin-Soo Choo in the 12th and Mike Aviles in the 14th), my team projected to finish first in the league with 98.5 total Roto points. Using the Total Points screen, I was able to stack up on hitting heavily, and using the DD projections, I was able to identify value SPs later on.

If you think I am trying to sell you on something, I am. I want you to win your fantasy baseball league. I’ll be here regularly throughout spring training, sharing my Diamond Draft exploits, which lead to regular draft domination. Join me in crushing the opposition at www.rotoexperts.com.

Scott Engel began covering fantasy baseball as a professional in 1997. He has won several experts leagues, including two Fantasy Sports Trade Association championships. E-mail Scott at scotte@rotoexperts.com.

RotoExperts.com Las Vegas Preview: By the Fantasy NASCAR Numbers

Scott Engel — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 10:50:41 -0500

No driver has ever started the season with three consecutive victories in what is now known as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Matt Kenseth has the Loop Data numbers to suggest he can push to make history.

In the past four races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kenseth has a 107.8 Driver Rating, fourth-best among all current competitors in the past four races at the site since 2005.

He ranks second with 90 of the Fastest Laps Run, and third in Average Green Flag Speed (164.605). In nine career starts at Las Vegas, Kenseth has two wins and Four Top Five finishes.

It’s too early to suggest that Kenseth will be dominant all season long, but in Fantasy NASCAR, you should ride with the hot driver, and Kenseth must be locked into lineups in tiered formats like the ones used by our friends at Yahoo! Sports, or in any salary cap style game.

Yet, Kenseth doesn’t look like the ultimate best bet for the win this week. Neither does Jimmie Johnson, despite the Loop Data stats indicating otherwise. I’ll bank on Johnson for his first Top Five finish of the season, based on the fact he leads everyone in the field in Driver Rating (112.0) and Fastest Laps Run (149) since ’05.

Johnson won each race at the site from 2005 to 2007, so it’s hard to bet against him. Yet he has not truly displayed his championship form early in 2009, so I’ll be bold and pick another big name to end a winless drought, just like Kenseth has done early this year.

Kenseth and Jeff Gordon both failed to earn a victory last season. Kenseth has erased that memory for now, and I believe Gordon, who failed to catch Kenseth at the end last week, will finish ahead of the No. 17 and all other cars at Vegas.

Gordon deserved better than a 13th-place finish in the rain-shortened Daytona 500, and showed he is handling the “new car” better than ever as he finished second at Fontana. A wreck ruined Gordon’s Vegas outing last year, but he finished second, fifth and fourth in the previous three events at the site.

He also has one Vegas win to his credit. Gordon led all drivers in Average Green Flag Speed (165.015), Laps in the Top 15 (1,001, or 93.5 percent) and Quality Passes (186 since ’05). He ranks second among all drivers in Driver Rating (111.4) and Average Running Position (7.4).

Las Vegas is also “home” for the Busch brothers, and both should receive strong consideration this week. Kyle rebounded from a mishap that ruined his Daytona 500 outing to finish third at Fontana.

Kyle has never won at Vegas, but he has finished second, third, ninth and 11th in his past four races at the site. He leads all drivers in Average Running Position (6.8), is third in Driver Rating (109.8) and is second in Average Green Flag Speed (167.674), Laps in the Top 15 (997, or 93.1 percent) and Quality Passes (174) since ’05.

Kurt is looking like a solid value after 10th and fifth-place finishes to open the 2009 season. In some salary cap style games, Kurt is ranked below drivers such as David Ragan and Jamie McMurray, who simply don’t have comparable records of overall success.

I strongly believe Busch is an underrated driver entering this season, so take advantage. Busch is a “Tier B” driver in Yahoo! leagues, along with the likes of Elliott Sadler and Casey Mears. Kurt has an average start of 6.1 at Vegas, so look for him to qualify well.

His average finish at Vegas is 20.1, but I believe he can challenge for the Top 10 this time. His Driver Rating of 89.9 is 10th-best since ’05.

Carl Edwards won the 2008 race at Vegas, which obviously makes him a strong contender this week despite a ninth-best Driver Rating of 92.3. Greg Biffle finished fourth at Fontana, and has three Top 5s in five Vegas starts.

He ranks fifth in Driver Rating (100.2) and fourth in Average Running Position (10.7) at Vegas since ’05. Jeff Burton ranks 31st in the Cup standings after two events, but Vegas looks like a place where he can rebound.

Burton has seven Top-10 finishes in 11 Vegas starts, and ranks third in Average Running Position (10.5), Laps in the Top 15 (866, or 80.9 percent) and Quality Passes (171) at the site since ’05.

Loop Data numbers aren’t the only factors to consider this week. Some notable drivers are in dangerous positioning in the Top 35 in car owner’s points. The one that jumps out the most is Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is in the very shaky 35th spot. He has never missed a race since entering the Cup Series, and look for him to make a push forward this week.

Earnhardt has been inconsistent at Vegas, with three Top 10 finishes in nine starts and average finish of 18.7. A sense of urgency, however, should put him in the Top 10 this time. Ryan Newman is 34th, and he has four Top 10s in eight Vegas starts.

Joey Logano is 37th as he makes his debut at Vegas, and look for him to deliver a Top 25 finish based on his need to vault upwards in the standings.

When looking for bargains, consider that Scott Riggs has an 18th best Driver Rating of 74.3 and Travis Kvapil finished eight at the site in 2008.

For my list of fantasy rankings for the upcoming Cup event, along with more in-depth analysis and links to articles on Loop Data and Driver Rating, click here.

Scott Engel was one of three finalists for the Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association’s 2008 Fantasy Racing Writer of the Year Award. E-mail Scott at scotte@rotoexperts.com.

Famous Sports Stars I Have Met: The All-Star Team of Nice Guys

Scott Engel — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 02:40:45 -0500

Currently, I am proud to say I am a Senior Fantasy Writer at www.RotoExperts.com. I work with a great group of people. They are humble, hard-working and fun to be around.

Many of my days are spent working with our great Diamond Draft Fantasy Baseball Software and writing about fantasy football, baseball, and NASCAR.

I hope to spend the rest of my very rewarding career at this fine and fast-growing company. It's exciting to be part of something that is becoming so rapidly successful.

It has been quite a journey to get to RotoExperts, where I feel comfortable and glad to contribute every day, knowing I am dedicated to helping fantasy players everywhere. I have also been very fortunate in my career, having the opportunity to work for ESPN for four years and CBS Sportsline for eight.

During my college days, I worked at Madison Square Garden. So in my travels, I have encountered many prominent sports stars.

In this age of the A-Rod scandal and tell-all books, we must be reminded of athletes who make fine role models and are good people. I have been very fortunate to meet many sports stars over the years, both as a professional and as a fan.

When you start losing faith in the sports figures that we so admire, I can tell you for a fact these guys didn't let me down when I had the opportunity to meet them.

Here are the best of the best, the players that deserve all the accolades laid on them, because they are just good people.

I speak from my own personal experiences. I hope yours can be as pleasant. These are people just like us, in the end, but it's simply cool to meet someone you admire and have a nice experience.

Jeff Gordon

I am glad my 14-year-old son Sean has picked him as his favorite sports figure. I've met Jeff more than once, and the last time I did, he said "nice to see you again," which took me by surprise, considering all the people Jeff meets.

That's the measure of someone of high character, when they meet hordes of people every day, and take the time to acknowledge others as much as they can. Hopefully, one day Sean will get a chance to say hi, too.

Bernard King

In high school, he was my idol. I used to go to tons of New York Knicks games, and always waited outside after games to talk to Bernard, and he always made time for me.

He really appreciated his fans and when he met my father, he said "you have a very nice son."

Thurman Thomas

Possibly the most down-to-earth athlete I have ever met. The guy is a Hall of Famer, and he treats people like next-door neighbors. He clearly never let all his success to go to his head (or helmet). I wish he would have won a Super Bowl, he deserved it.

Julius Erving

Was remembered mostly for being classy, and when I met him outside MSG late one afternoon as a teen, he was a real gentleman.

Michael Jordan

I only met him briefly, in his rookie year, but he's the same affable person you always see on TV.

Keith Hernandez

Met him more than once, and he was a class act each time. Truly appreciated the fact that I was a lifelong Mets fan, and was only too glad to show me his championship ring and personalize an autograph.

Ron Darling

Another guy that showed me that the 1980s Mets could be a bunch of frat boys, but also respected and took the time for their fans.

Doc Gooden was also really nice to his fans, and any problems he was having never affected his manners in public. One of the most courteous superstars I've ever seen.

George Gervin

Also met him as a teen, and he said "Good afternoon young man, how are you today?"

Hines Ward

He was wearing a Sanford and Son t-shirt. We both had a good laugh about the "big dummy."

Jeff Burton

Many NASCAR drivers will agree, Jeff is a very likable fellow.

Lou Pinella

We were on the same flight to Tampa recently. My grandfather used to be a driver for prominent people back in NY in the '70s, and Lou was among them. He remembered my grandfather, and we had a really nice chat.

Bobby Bonilla

This one will surprise a lot of you. But I interviewed him twice, and both times, he was a very nice fellow. Maybe it's because we share similar interests? Bobby is a devoted KISS fan.

Oronde Gadsden

I am glad to say the former Miami Dolphins WR is a good friend. Many people in South Florida still show him a lot of love, and he returns it.

Harmon Killebrew

A great public speaker, just as friendly one-on-one.

Butch Huskey

When my son was four, we were at spring training. The former Met pulled a baseball out of his warmup, told the people in front of us to move aside, and directly handed my son his first-ever autographed item.

My son's not an autograph seeker by any means, but that one was special.

Tony Richardson

One of the best fullbacks in recent years, he really appreciates the fans who play fantasy football, even though he was rarely drafted.

Ryan Grant

A very humble guy, makes you want to root for him.

Steven Jackson

When he is in a room, everyone wants to talk to him. And he seems eager to want to get to know people, too.

John Starks

He is a legend in New York, and certainly appears very thankful for his place in the hearts of the locals.

William "The Refrigerator" Perry

He really enjoys a hearty laugh, and wants you to laugh with him.

Antonio Pierce

Really enjoys talking to the fans, whether they be diehards or those who don't know too much about him when his helmet is off.

Chris Warren

The former Seahawks running back was an underrated star, and when I interviewed him after his second big game in two years that I covered, he jokingly offered me season tickets.

Lonnie Shelton

The father of NFL offensive lineman L.J. Shelton and a former NBA All-Star. I actually had dinner with him one time in New York with some mutual friends.

If his teammates were out partying, he wasn't interested. He just wanted to hang out in the hotel and have an interesting conversation. He then went back to his room, where he watched Rocky III on TV before the night was over.

Ken Norton

The former champ seems very happy when he is out in public.

Bill Cartwright

One of the nicest big fellas you could ever meet. I was very happy for him when he enjoyed success with the Bulls.

Tom Jackson

Will gladly talk the X's and O's with you. Just ask.

Ron Jaworski

Actually met him after my ESPN tenure. You couldn't help but be happy for him when he saw his Philadelphia Soul win the most recent Arena Football League championship.

Harold Reynolds

It's good to see him on the MLB Network, he was a real cool guy when I used to cross paths with him.

Brent Jones

The former 49ers tight end is simply "good people." It was a real treat to play fantasy football with him.

Darryl Strawberry

New York still loves him, and he is thankful the town still does. He gives the love right back to the fans these days.

Patrick Ewing

When I worked at MSG, I remember my last day. I got out of the elevator, and Ewing was getting on. I was getting used to saying hi to him and him greeting me in return. When I told him I was moving on, he asked why, and wished me the best of luck.

Well, there are certainly some more I may have forgotten. And there's the really cool people who cover the games, like Peter King and the current and former front office guys like Gil Brandt and Randy Mueller.

Even the non-sports celebs I have met who have been really a pleasure to meet, such as Peter Criss, LL Cool J, and Bernie Mac, could take up another amount of significant space.

It's nice to know there are good people in all walks of life. I judge people as individuals when I meet them, whether they are famous or not. We shouldn't get star-struck or overzealous when we meet people we admire.

Everyone seems to want a piece of them. I think telling someone that you appreciate them and getting kindness in return is more valuable than any autograph.

And you don't have to be a star to make a difference in someone's life by giving them the respect and attention they deserve.

Thanks for reading. See you in the fantasy draft rooms!

RotoExperts.com Auto Club Speedway Preview: By the Fantasy Numbers

Scott Engel — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 10:58:54 -0500

Listen LIVE to RotoRacing with Scott Engel, every Wednesday on BlogTalkRadio.com from 3:30 to 4 pm ET. To hear the archived version of this week’s Fontana preview show with Kerry Murphey of THE FINAL LAP, click here.

The results of the Daytona 500 were not indicative of how the 2009 Fantasy NASCAR season should truly play out. It’s a long season, and it may be a long time before you see Michael Waltrip finish in the Top 10 again.

A handful of premier drivers were knocked out of the running for the win because of a big wreck, and it’s very questionable whether Matt Kenseth would have won a full event, not one that was called off early because of rain. Your standings may look out of whack after one week, but things should start returning to normal this week at Fontana.

Jimmie Johnson does his best work later in the schedule, but he should return to the top of the pack this week after another disappointing outing at Daytona. Johnson finished 31st in the 500, but Fontana is one of his best tracks, and he has rebounded from frustration at Daytona before.

He has three wins and eight Top-Five finishes in 12 California starts. He took the pole in both of last year’s races at the site, finishing second in the first event of 2008 there, and winning the second race in August with a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0. DR is the ultimate stat for fantasy NASCAR use.

A complete explanation and spotlight on the formula can be found here. All you need to do is register for a FREE RotoExperts.com account, with no strings attached. Johnson’s feat of achieving a perfect DR was only the seventh such instance since the stat was introduced in 2005.

Johnson leads the most important Loop Data categories since their inception in ’05 at Fontana, covering the past eight races at the site. He leads all drivers at Fontana since 2005 in Driver Rating (119.1), Average Running Position (6.3), Fastest Laps Run (262), Average Green-Flag Speed (171.977) and Laps in the Top 15 (1,880, or 93.8 percent).

Hendrick Motorsports leads all teams with seven wins at Fontana, three by Jeff Gordon. Yet, Gordon has not won at Fontana since 2004, and his DR of 94.0 is ninth among all current drivers. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a DR of 77.3 at Fontana, which is 20th in the field. He has four DNFs and four Top 10s in 14 California starts, so he is the Hendrick Motorsports driver you should avoid in tiered and salary cap leagues this week.

Johnson may be the best single driver to pinpoint for this week’s event, but Roush-Fenway Racing can outdo HMS for overall performance and more quality picks. Kenseth ranks second in DR at Fontana (110.8), and there is already talk about him delivering back-to-back wins to open the 2009 season.

I wouldn’t bet against Johnson, but Kenseth can easily anchor many fantasy squads this time, even though he lucked out and didn’t have the best car at Daytona. Roush-Fenway has won the last four February events at Fontana, including two by Kenseth in 2006 and 2007.

Kenseth has seven consecutive finishes inside the Top 10 at Fontana, and in the past eight races there, he ranks second in Average Running Position (8.3) and Laps in the Top 15 (1,727 or 86.1 percent).

His teammate, Carl Edwards, will certainly push Kenseth for a top spot after finishing 18th at Daytona. Edwards has six Top Fives and eight Top 10s in nine California starts, and he won the February event at the site in 2008. His DR of 105.3 in the past eight races at Fontana ranks fourth, and he ranks second in Average Green Flag Speed (171.652) during that span.

Greg Biffle was a non-factor at Daytona, but he has a win at the site and finished second place in the second ’08 race at the site. Biffle’s DR of 98.1 ranks seventh, so he should vie for a Top 10 finish this week. He does have 160 of the Fastest Laps Run at Fontana since ’05.

Kyle Busch clearly had the best car at Daytona, and his DR of 107.6 ranks third in the past eight Fontana races, so look for him to finish inside the Top 5. He also ranks third in Average Running Position (9.4) and Laps in the Top 15 (1,657, or 82.6 percent) during that span.

Busch has seven consecutive Top 10 finishes at California. Among the middle-tier drivers, give strong consideration to Kasey Kahne, who has the fifth-best DR (99.2) in the field. He has seven Top-10 finishes in 10 Fontana starts. Kurt Busch (90.9) ranks 10th in DR and should come through with a respectable showing.

He has an average finish of 13.5 at Fontana.

Brian Vickers should bounce back from last week’s controversy to finish well. He ranks 14th in DR (85.9) and has finished in the Top 12 in his past four Fontana starts. Bargain choices include David Reutimann (71.3 DR, 21st), who finished ninth in the second California race last year, and Bobby Labonte, who has finished 11th, 25th and 21st in his past three Fontana starts.

A.J. Allmendinger comes off a third-place finish at Daytona to his “home” track, where he has finished 18th and 14th in two starts. He looks like the best of the Week Two value plays, even though his 500 finish may be a fluke.

For my full listing of the Top picks for this week's race, and other additional insights on the event from RotoExperts.com, click here.

Fantasy NASCAR: Daytona 500 Preview: Numbers To Know

Scott Engel — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 02:25:00 -0500

I’ll spare you all of the hype and hoopla surrounding the “Super Bowl of Racing”, and quickly deliver the strategies and numbers that will help your 2009 Fantasy NASCAR season get off to a successful start.

Before I do though, make sure you comb through our Fantasy NASCAR Draft Kit at www.rotoexperts.com, if you haven’t done so yet. May of the pieces are still valuable after the season starts, and you shouldn’t start setting that first lineup of the new campaign without them, especially if you play in a tiered or salary cap style league.

The articles on "Driver Rating", "Loop Data" and "How to Win in Any Format" are must-reads for any serious fantasy player.

Daytona is one of two restrictor plate tracks on the Sprint Cup Circuit. Kevin Harvick won a calamity-filled Bud Shootout at the site last weekend, but that event doesn’t serve as a true precursor of the upcoming 500. There won’t be nearly as much aggressive racing throughout the real season opener, and strategy will take heavy precedence over downright aggressive driving, which is mostly reserved for the latter parts of races.

When many NASCAR followers think of plate tracks, they immediately think of Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Gordon is looking like a strong pick for the season opener, based on perception he wants to rebound strong after a disappointing 2008. His ability to skillfully snake through an early wreck in the Shootout is an indicator he has become more comfortable in the “new car” as well.

His driver rating of 93.7, since the stat was introduced to NASCAR, is only fifth-best among all current drivers since 2005. Driver Rating should be your ultimate guide to setting a fantasy lineup each week. A complete explanation of why the formula is so useful can be found right here.

You get the full report on DR if you are a RotoExperts member (registration is free, no strings attached). If you feel like I am forcing Driver Rating on you, I am. I want you to win your league, and it’s well worth your time.

In 32 Daytona starts, Gordon has six wins, 11 top-5 finishes and 17 top-10 finishes in the 500 and the night race combined. In the past eight races, his average running position of 11.9 is second-best among all drivers.

So even if he doesn’t win, expect him to lead some laps and finish right near the front.

Despite two wins and 11 top-10s in 18 starts at Daytona, Earnhardt has a DR of 92.4 since ’05, which is seventh-best among all drivers. He does have 43 of the fastest laps run in the past eight Daytona races, so he should lead some laps, too.

Earnhardt should finish in the top-10, and that should satisfy those who had to grab him as their first pick in snake drafts.

Tony Stewart leads all drivers in DR since 2005 with a 105.4 rating, but that number was built under the Joe Gibbs banner. So, Stewart can’t be considered a major contender to win, but he will finish well. He’ll be out to prove he hasn’t lost much as the kingpin of his own team.

Kyle Busch, with a 98.3 driver rating, is second-best behind Stewart, and should be the strong favorite to win this week. In the past eight Daytona races, he ranks second in laps in the top-15 (1,080, or 74.5 percent) and quality passes (1,062). NASCAR defines QPs as passes of cars in the top-15 while under green-flag conditions.

Ryan Newman actually ranks third in DR (94.9), and in some leagues he may be a bargain considering he has not fully performed up to expectations over the past three seasons. Newman leads all drivers in QPs over the past eight races (1,077) and ranks second in average green-flag speed (185.081 mph).

Newman won last year’s Daytona 500, and he also finished third in 2006.

Of course, we can’t overlook Jimmie Johnson, who has the fourth-best DR (94.7), and leads all drivers at Daytona in the past eight races with in average running position (10.0) and laps in the top-15 (1,094 or 75.4 percent).

Yet, Johnson has won only once at Daytona, and has five top 5s in 14 starts at the site. He did win the 500 in 2006, but has one top-10 finish in his past five starts at Daytona. Johnson can finish up front any week, as any casual fan knows, but he won’t be my ultimate winning pick for this week.

As much as I like Carl Edwards overall, he won’t be my pick to win, either. He has never won in eight tries at Daytona, with two top-10s and two DNFs. His DR of 77.8 is 17th-best among all drivers.

Mark Martin has become the emotional favorite, and he has a 84.8 DR, which puts him 10th in the field. Martin finished second in the 2007 season opener, but has never won at the site. It was his first top-5 finish at Daytona since the 2003 Daytona 500, so expecting a win this week may be a bit much, despite his leap to Hendrick Motorsports.

Here are some more drver's to considering when deciding who has a shot at winning this year's season opener.

Other Drivers to watch in the 2009 Daytona 500

Pole-sitter Martin Truex, Jr. ranks 19th in DR (74.5) and has never finished in the top-10 at Daytona.

Brian Vickers, meanwhile, has a DR of 82.3, and ranks 12th. He finished 12th and 11th at Daytona in 2008, so he leads the list of lower-echelon drivers to watch for this week.

Jamie McMurray (DR of 79.1, 15th) won the night race at Daytona in 2007.

Sam Hornish, Jr. (78.1, 16th) finished 15th and 29th at Daytona last year.

David Stremme (72.7, 24th) has finished 16th, 11th and 22nd in his past three Daytona events.

David Gilliland (72.5, 25th) finished eighth and 11th at the site in 2007.

For my FULL Daytona 500 Driver ranks and more analysis and tips for Sunday's race, visit the rest of my preview at RotoExperts.com.