Bleacher Report - Articles by Eric Stashin

MLB Fantasy Impact: Polanco, Scutaro, Fox and Zaun

Eric Stashin — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 07:40:38 -0500

There have been a few moves in recent days that have an impact on fantasy owners (not to mention the potentially major signing of Chone Figgins and the Mariners, which isn’t “official” yet, so I will wait for that before commenting).

Let’s take a look and see which players have seen their value increase, decrease or remain stagnant due to their new locale:

Placido Polanco signed with the Philadelphia Phillies - All fans of NL teams must be rejoicing. Instead of adding another potential bat to an already deep lineup, they chose to go defense. While Polanco may see a slight increase in power playing in Citizens Bank Ballpark (though his best HR/FB rate since 2005 is 5.2%), he likely won’t hit more than low double-digits. Couple that with little speed and a solid, though unspectacular, average and Polanco remains a low-end fantasy option. If he were going to hit near the top of the Phillies order, maybe things would be different, but I just don’t see him displacing Jimmy Rollins or Shane Victorino at this point.
Marco Scutaro signed with the Boston Red Sox - He translated a career season into a job with a perennial title contender. Good for him, but don’t overvalue him on draft day. It’s not like he was playing in a bad lineup in Toronto, where he led off, which led to his 100 runs scored. On the Red Sox, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, it’s highly unlikely he’s anywhere near the top of the lineup. That means less runs scored to go with a potential 10/10 season. Not all that enticing.
Oakland acquired Jake Fox & Aaron Miles from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Jeff Gray, Ronny Morla and Matt Spencer - The key player in this deal is Fox, as he finally should get a chance to play regularly. In part-time duty for the Cubs (216 AB), he hit 11 HR. That’s not to mention his .409 average with 17 HR in 164 Triple-A AB prior to his recall (though we all know expectations like that are unrealistic). At worst he’s the new Jack Cust, but he strikes out far less and has the potential to produce a usable average. His .259 average in the Majors came courtesy of a .285 BABIP, so there is plenty of room for improvement there. His FB% was 47.4% (his minor league career was 42.0%) and his HR/FB was a believable 13.3%. He instantly becomes a solid late-round power flyer in all formats, and one that we’ll look at even deeper in the near future.
Gregg Zaun signed with the Milwaukee Brewers - Zaun doesn’t offer much offensively for fantasy owners, though if he is given everyday at bats (as is rumored) he should reach double-digit home runs. As is the case with many catchers, that’s about all we can ask for, as he has a career average of .251. More importantly, his signing means that Angel Salome will at least begin the 2010 season back in the minor leagues. If you’re in a two-catcher format, I’d still keep my eye on him, but that’s about it for now.

What are your thoughts? Whose value saw the biggest improvement? Whose value gets hurt the most?

Previous Fantasy Impacts of Recent Transactions:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sleeper: Matt Forte

Eric Stashin — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 07:09:51 -0500

Is it really possible that a player good enough for a first-round draft pick has regressed so far that he’s a sleeper for Week 13? If your name is Matt Forte, that amazingly is exactly what has happened.

While he has contributed in the passing game this season (433 yards on 46 receptions), he has yet to find the end zone through the air.

On the ground, he’s been a fraction of the player he was during his rookie season, when he rushed for 1,238 yards and eight touchdowns.

So far, this season he’s amassed just 543 yards, averaging just under 50 per game, while scoring just three touchdowns. He’s only had over 50 yards in a game four times all season and over the past four weeks has posted the following statistics:

Week 9 - 33 yards vs. Arizona
Week 10 - 41 yards vs. San Francisco
Week 11 - 34 yards vs. Philadelphia
Week 12 - 27 yards vs. Minnesota

Granted, the worst of those three defenses is Arizona, who ranks 13th in the league giving up 108.6 yards on the ground per game. The Vikings and 49ers are allowing fewer than 100 yards per game.

Still, from a player who so much was expected from, you would think he’d be able to post significantly better numbers, even against the toughest of defenses.

This week, things look to be a lot more favorable as Forte gets the Rams, ranked 28th in the league allowing 148.5 yards per game. They are tied for the second most rushing TDs allowed with 16 (the Raiders have allowed 17).

Last week they saw Justin Forsett thrash them for 130 yards. Two weeks ago, Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells combined for 184 yards.

The key will be the Bears staying with the run. The Rams haven’t been burned consistently by the big run, having allowed nine runs of 20+ yards (the league worst is Buffalo with 16).

They just have consistently given up a good chunk of yards, tied for the second-worst average yardage allowed per carry at 4.8.

As long as the Bears stay patient and continue to feed Forte the ball, this should be the week that fantasy owners finally get repaid for the months of frustration. Make sure he’s in your lineup in all formats.

What do you think? Is Forte a player you would use? How good do you think he may be in Week 13?

Previous Week 13 Sleepers:

Make sure to check out our Week 13 Rankings:

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

The Rotoprofessor's 2010 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

Eric Stashin — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 07:05:23 -0500

With Major League Baseball recently revealing the players on the 2010 Hall of Fame ballot, I though I would weigh in on who I would vote for. Let’s take a look:

The Definites

Roberto Alomar - Everyone remembers him for the spitting incident and the latter years, which certainly has left a black eye on his career. It’s unfortunate, because he was one of the best offensive second baseman of all-time. He hit .300 or better in nine out of ten seasons from 1992-2001.

He was a 10-time Gold Glove Award winner (a record for second baseman) and a 12 time All-Star. No matter what happened, he belongs to be remembered for his accomplishments.

Andre Dawson - He was the 1977 NL Rookie of the Year. He was the 1987 NL MVP. He was an eight time All-Star. He was an eight-time Gold Glove Award winner.

For a time, he was one of the most feared and dominant hitters in the game, which is really the most telling statement.

He deserves to be inducted and after falling just 44 votes shy in 2009, this could be the year he finally gets recognized for his accomplishments.

Mark McGwire - Steroids or not, he was one of the people who helped to bring the game back after the strike cancelled the 1994 World Series. He should be regarded as one of the best sluggers in the game and, in theory, what he did was not against the rules of baseball when he was playing. He should get the recognition he deserves.

One The Fence, But Not This Year

Barry Larkin - He was one of the most well rounded short stops in baseball history. He won the Gold Glove three times, though that really is not telling since he was going against the best defensive player in baseball history, Ozzie Smith.

He was a 12-time All Star, won the 1995 MVP as well as getting a World Series Title in 1990. He was a star, all around, and really has me one the fence. He was a star, but was he really a superstar?

Edgar Martinez - He is going to bring about a lot of debate, since he is the first true DH who is worth considering. Does the fact that he only played half the game, not contributing on the defensive side, make his accomplishments any less impressive?

He was a career .312 hitter and sported a .418 OBP. The OBP places him 12th all time, an incredible mark when you think about it. Still, right now, I can’t give him my vote.

Lee Smith - The election of Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter in recent seasons should have begun to open the door for some of the other great closers in league history. Talk about the position and the specialization all you want, but he was one of the most dominant in league history.

He was the all-time leader for a while, with 478 career saves. He was a seven time All-Star and at a position that generally sees much volatility, was one of the best for a long time.

The problem is, if you vote Smith in where does the closer line fall? Does someone like John Franco get voted in? What is the real difference between the two? For that reason, I can’t vote Smith in this season.

Other Players Who Will Garner Attention, but Not Mine:

Bert Blyleven - I know he won 287 games, but too me he was more of a compiler. He only had two seasons with more than 17 wins. Yes, he had 3,701 strikeouts, but his K/9 was a measly 6.70. I don’t know, while the numbers are there it is more telling of the length of his career.

Don Mattingly - This is the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Very Good. I know, the back injury really short-changed him, but he just didn’t do enough.

Jack Morris - He was a big game pitcher, but is that really enough? Not in my eyes it’s not. A 3.90 ERA should not make you Hall of Fame worthy.

Ryan Lester of www.lesterslegends.com had already debated him, so for more on why I don’t think he belongs, click here .

Dale Murphy - Another player that I’ve already debated, so I’m not going to rehash the argument in full here (click here to view). His six very good seasons just aren’t enough to convince me since he wasn’t the big, dominant hitter of his generation and then quickly disappeared.

Dave Parker - He had some good seasons, but if he was an elite slugger how could he have just four seasons of over 100 RBI? How could he have just three seasons of at least 30 home runs? His numbers just aren’t impressive enough for me to ever consider voting him in.

Tim Raines - Yet another player that I’ve already debated (click here to view). He’s basically another player that I see as a compiler, getting a lot of his numbers due to sticking in the majors for 23 seasons. While his 808 stolen bases are impressive, 454 of them came from 1981-1986. It’s just not enough for me.

Definitely Never:
Kevin Appier, Harold Baines, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Fred McGriff, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Alan Trammell, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile

What are your thoughts on the 2010 Hall of Fame ballot? Who deserves to be in? Who are you on the fence for?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Fantasy Baseball Impact: Billy Wagner To Atlanta

Eric Stashin — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:03:59 -0500

The Braves’ signing of Billy Wagner appears to signal a change at the back end of the Atlanta bullpen. While it is still possible that Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez is brought back to the mix (though even more unlikely with the addition of Takashi Saito), does anyone believe they would have guaranteed Wagner $7 million if he was not going to be the closer?

Wagner, who returned from Tommy John surgery in 2009, was impressive as a setup man for the Mets and Red Sox (1.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 26 K in 15.2 IP) and instantly becomes a solid option in all formats.

He has always been a great source of strikeouts out of the bullpen with a career K/9 of 10.89, so he is likely to continue to be an asset there. There are obvious concerns, but his ability to excel after returning last season should go a long way in alleviating them. While he isn’t likely to be quite as good as last season, I’d pencil him in for at least a strikeout per inning.

When you couple that potential with the idea of him almost guaranteed to be closing games (again, who pays a setup man $7 million), how could you go wrong? Initially he was left off the Top 15 closers rankings (click here to view) due to the questions on if he would be closing somewhere or not.

With that question answered he potentially slips in there, but he certainly is a Top 20 option. If you look at the Tier 4 options, it is littered with names like Trevor Hoffman, Jose Valverde and Ryan Franklin. Would anyone be shocked to see Wagner outperform any of them?

That makes him a great selection late in your draft if you are one who gambles on closers. Don’t reach for him, but if he’s available the strikeouts and saves make him a good selection in all formats.

What are your thoughts? How good could Wagner be? Will he return to the type of closer he once was?

Previous Fantasy Impacts of Recent Transactions:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sleeper: Jeremy Maclin

Eric Stashin — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 08:07:45 -0500

Jeremy Maclin has been coming on in recent weeks, with 17 receptions over the past three weeks and at least 60 yards a game. That was with a healthy DeSean Jackson in the lineup, who is now likely to miss Week 13 due to a concussion. Throw in that Brent Celek is potentially limited with torn ligaments in his thumb and someone is going to need to pick up some substantial slack.

Maclin’s success has come against:

Chargers - 199.6 passing yards/game
Bears - 214.2 passing yards/game
Redskins - 170.4 passing yards/game, best in the league

All three of those teams find themselves in the top half of the league. This week’s opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, is the sixth-worst allowing 252.6 passing yards/game. Additionally:

They have allowed 18 passing TDs (tied for tenth worst)
They have just eight interceptions (only six teams have less)
They have allowed 45 passing plays of 20+ yards (most in the league)

Needless to say, things appear to be set for the Eagles to take quite a few shots downfield in Week 13. In most weeks the player who they would take the shots with would have been Jackson (11 receptions of 20+ yards), but with him out Maclin should get his fair share of looks.

Maclin has had three of his four biggest yardage games over the past three weeks (he had 142 yards in Week Five), so you have to like the odds of him continuing that trend. While I wouldn’t consider him anything more than a WR3, this certainly seems like the perfect week to play him if you are in need of a receiver.

What do you think? Is Maclin a player you would use? How good do you think he may be in Week 13?

Previous Week 13 Sleepers:

Knowshon Moreno

Make sure to check out our Week 13 Rankings:

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

2010 Fantasy Baseball Projection: B.J. Upton

Eric Stashin — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 08:04:56 -0500

It was just two seasons ago that B.J. Upton posted a 24 HR, 22 SB season sending fantasy owners into a frenzy, thinking the next great outfielder had emerged.

Since then, while the speed has proven to be real (86 SB the past two seasons), the power is nowhere to be found with just 20 home runs total. Is there any hope that he can get reasonably close to his 2007 campaign?

First, let’s take a look at the numbers he did post in 2009:

560 At Bats
.241 Batting Average (135 Hits)
11 Home Runs
55 RBI
79 Runs
42 Stolen Bases
.313 On Base Percentage
.373 Slugging Percentage
.312 Batting Average on Balls in Play

We’ll get to the power in a minute, but it is far from the only question surrounding Upton.

The average is terrible, but it comes courtesy of a realistic BABIP. The problem is the strikeouts, whiffing 27.1 percent last season. That’s not a new problem, however, just look at his marks the two previous seasons:

2007 - 32.5 percent
2008 - 25.2 percent

While he did hit .300 in 2007, it came thanks to a BABIP of .399, something that is nearly impossible to replicate. While he has the speed to support a mark that is above average, that is just too much to ask for from anyone (you can almost say the same thing about his 2008 mark of .351).

It is possible to see him hit to a better average in 2010, but given the strikeout problems he’s consistently shown the past few seasons it is hard to imagine. A best-case scenario seems to put him at usable, but that’s about it.

Now, onto the biggest question, his power potential. His 2007 power surge came courtesy of a 37.6 percent flyball rate and 19.8 percent HR/FB. The latter is a number that he hasn’t even come close to the last two seasons:

2008 - 7.4 percent
2009 - 6.8 percent

While he exploded for seven home runs in the 2008 playoffs, again giving people hope, you have to look at what he’s done the past two seasons and realize that repeating 24 HR may be a long shot. He did get his flyball percentage back up last season, at 40.3 percent (it fell to 30.6 percent in 2008), so there is hope that he can consistently reach double-digits.

Of course, there is a double-edged sword there, as with his speed you would almost rather him drive the ball into the ground and try to beat them out. When the ball is in the air, the likelihood of it falling in diminishes.

He has more power than Ichiro Suzuki, but look at his career 23.9 percent flyball rate as a marker. If Upton were consistently posting marks like that, maybe I would believe in him maintaining an above average BABIP.

With all that said, let’s now take a look at my preliminary projection for 2010:

.262 (144-550), 14 HR, 50 RBI, 85 R, 40 SB, .331 BABIP, .351 OBP, .416 SLG

Basically, I’m expecting him to drop the flyball rate slightly, which will allow him to use his speed more and provide an average that is much more palatable.

I’m also expecting his power to improve slightly, at age 25 (he’ll turn 26 in August), which is where the extra home runs come from.

While I’d love to place him with more runs scored, he’s posted totals of 86, 85 and 79 the past three seasons. It’s tough to project him for much more, especially given his OBP.

What are your thoughts on Upton? Do you see him outperforming these projections? Under performing them?

Make sure to check out some more of our early 2010 projections, including:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sleeper: Knowshon Moreno

Eric Stashin — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 07:55:51 -0500

Since draft day, everyone has been waiting for Knowshon Moreno to emerge as a go-to fantasy option. Over the season's first nine weeks, that type of optimism appeared like it was going to be a complete bust.

He had just one rushing touchdown. He had rushed for 75 yards or more just three times. His best game saw him overage 4.6 yards per carry (and he had four games averaging less than four yards per carry, including one where he was at 0.6).

Over the past three weeks he suddenly has put things together. He’s rushed for 265 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He’s also found the end zone once and is getting the ball regularly.

That’s not to mention, he’s also done it against some pretty good defenses:

Washington—currently allowing 127.9 yards per game, best in the league
San Diego—currently allowing 118.1 yards per game
New York Giants—currently allowing 107.8 yards per game

I know the Giants defense is not playing as good as their ranking. I know you can probably point to things (like injuries) regarding both the Redskins and Chargers defenses as well. I know that these are not the best defenses; in fact, only the Giants are in the top half in the league. Still, when someone starts to perform you have to take notice.

This week he gets an even better matchup, taking on the Kansas City Chiefs, currently allowing the sixth most yards per game (134.5). They are also 11th in the number of rushing touchdowns at 11 (the league leader is at 17). While they did manage to contain LaDainian Tomlinson this past week, the three prior to that saw big performances:

Week Nine: Maurice Jones-Drew—97 yards
Week 10: Michael Bush—119 yards
Week 11: Rashard Mendenhall—80 yards

Considering what he’s done in recent weeks, the positive matchup certainly has to excite fantasy owners, even though he is likely to continue sharing carries with Correll Buckhalter. He is on a roll these days and he’s worth considering in all formats.

What do you think? Is Moreno a player you would use? How good do you think he may be in Week 13?

Make sure to check out our Week 13 Rankings:

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Kevin Kouzmanoff

Eric Stashin — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 07:53:09 -0500

Every fantasy owner is trying to find the next great sleeper, the player that they can look back to at the end of the season and say that they got a steal on him. As we head towards Draft Day 2010, we will be highlighting some players that you should be eyeing at the tail end of your draft, the first of which is the Padres’ Kevin Kouzmanoff.

He perpetually finds his way onto this list, never quite living up to the substantial potential that we’ve all heard about for years. The 2009 season was no exception, posting the following line:

529 At-Bats
.255 Batting Average (135 Hits)
18 Home Runs
88 RBI
50 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.302 On Base Percentage
.420 Slugging Percentage
.289 Batting Average on Balls in Play

While those numbers are extremely underwhelming, there are some things to point to for optimism. First of all, you can look at the average and instantly say that the BABIP is realistic, therefore there is little hope for improvement. That, however, would be a miscalculation.

Just look at his home/road split as proof. He hit .287 on the road and .220 at home. That home average, which comes in a ballpark that you think would be conducive to a better average, came courtesy of a .251 BABIP.

It’s not like he is one of these players who just consistently launches the ball in the air either with a flyball rate of 36.1 percent in 2009. In fact, his career mark is at 38.2 percent, so there certainly is hope.

While he strikes out a fair amount, it is not a number that makes it impossible for success either. Just look at his numbers over the past three seasons:

2007 - 19.4%
2008 - 22.3%
2009 -20.0%

When you realize that the 2009 number put him outside of the Top 50, you realize that it is far from a crippling mark.

When you add it all together, there is reason to be optimistic that the average should, at the least, be usable, in the .270 range. There also is the potential, if his luck can significantly improve, that he can far exceed that mark.

The power is another story. His HR/FB rate has been consistent the past three seasons with marks of 11.3%, 12.1%, and 11.6%. What has been falling, and consistently, is his flyball rate:

2007 - 40.5%
2008 - 38.7%
2009 - 36.1%

That’s far from what we want to see from a player, especially a corner infielder, but that doesn’t mean that he is destined to continue regressing. The fact that he was able to hit half of his home runs at home last season (nine) and has already proven capable of hitting 23 HR in a season, gives reason for optimism.

I’m not suggesting that he could emerge as a 35 HR threat, but last year there were just nine third baseman who surpassed the 20 HR plateau and that included Brandon Inge (27), Mark DeRosa (23) and Michael Young (22). Those three are far from a guarantee.

He has shown the ability to drive in runs, with 172 RBI over the past two seasons. If Everth Cabrera can develop into a good leadoff option (which we recently discussed in my projection on him, which you can click here to read), he’s got the potential to be solid there again. Last season, he was eighth among major league 3B in RBI.

The one place that he may struggle is in runs scored because he has a low OBP and a bad offense behind him. He needs to find a way to get that number back into the 70s or 80s (he was at 71 in 2008), which I think he could do.

Let’s take a look at where I’m projecting him out for 2010:

.282 (158-560), 25 HR, 95 RBI, 80 R, 1 SB, .310 BABIP, .333 OBP, .484 SLG

Are those elite numbers? Nope. Are they numbers any fantasy owners would turn down? Absolutely not. Considering he’s currently going outside the Top 300 players picked, how can you go wrong?

What are your thoughts? Is Kouzmanoff a player you’d consider taking in the last round of your draft? Do you think he can reach the numbers I’ve projected him out to?

Make sure to check out some of our early 2010 projections, including:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Whose 2009 Power Regression Is for Real?

Eric Stashin — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:10:19 -0500

Last week we looked at players who saw a power surge in 2009 and tried to decide whose was for real and whose was an aberration (click here to read). Today, let’s take a look at who saw their HR/FB regress dramatically and decide if it is cause for concern or if a rebound should be in order:

1) Jack Cust: Oakland Athletics: -12.0%
It wasn’t that is power waned, as he hit 25 HR, it was that he saw an increase in the number of flyballs (he’s gone from 34.6% to 38.5% to 42.9%) he hit. Still, we’d have liked to see the home run numbers grow thanks to those extra flyballs. Could he have grown too fixated on the long ball? Quite possibly, which, when coupled with all the strikeouts, make it impossible for him to hit for a strong average. Unless he rebounds to 30+ HR, he’s unusable for fantasy owners (that is if he even has an everyday job in 2010).

2) Ty Wigginton: Baltimore Orioles: -10.6%
He was coming off a career best 18.5%, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he saw a regression, but to the second-worst mark of his career? That seems a little extreme. Still, he’s unlikely to be given an everyday job in 2010, so despite a rebound being likely, he’s not a player that’s worth targeting.

3) David Wright: New York Mets: -9.8%
Was it the new stadium? The pressure of being the last man standing? Something entirely different? If it is one of those reasons or something entirely different, it is hard to imagine anything but a significant improvement in 2010.

4) Milton Bradley: Chicago Cubs: -9.0%
Like Wigginton, he was coming off a career best HR/FB rate in 2008 (21.2%), so the fact that he saw a decrease should not be very shocking news. We all know he can hit, however, despite being a malcontent and an injury risk. With so many rumors swirling about his potential future it is too early to make any certain conclusions, except maybe that he will miss time due to an injury at some point in 2010.

5) Rick Ankiel: St. Louis Cardinals: -8.8%
Injuries severely limited him in 2009, but after his brief appearance in 2007 and performance in 2008 there is little doubt that he can hit the long ball. We’ll see where the free agent signs, but I’d look for him to have a strong bounce back campaign. If there is a team looking for a bit of a power boost on the cheap, he seems like the perfect candidate. Keep your eye on him in 2010.

6) Melvin Mora: Baltimore Orioles: -8.6%
He’ll be 38 years old come Opening Day and it is unlikely that he is an everyday player in 2010. He’s not worth even considering in any fantasy format.

7t) Adrian Beltre: Seattle Mariners: -8.2%
We all know that he is not the player who launched 48 home runs in 2004, but after hitting 76 HR from 2006-2008, we all know that he has much more upside then what he showed in 2009. He’s always posted double-digit HR/FB rates, so there is every reason to see him rebound from the 5.6% in 2009. He could be a bargain as a corner infielder for fantasy owners.

7t) Pat Burrell: Tampa Bay Rays: -8.2%
Was the dropoff due to leaving Citizen’s Bank Ballpark? Considering that he hit 21 of his 33 HR on the road in 2008, that wouldn’t be a fair assessment. He had posted a mark of at least 16% from 2004-2008, so you have to think that he will be better than he was in 2009. Still, with that comes the potential for a terrible average, likely in the .250 range or below, severely limiting his fantasy appeal.

9) Ryan Ludwick: St. Louis Cardinals: -8.1%
Clearly, he has power, and even last season he showed it by launching 22 HR in just 486 AB. One way or another he is going to be worth owning for his power potential.

10) Vernon Wells: Toronto Blue Jays: -8.0%
Over the past three years he has posted HR/FB rates of 7.3%, 14.4% and 6.4%. Which one appears to be the outlier? We all know his story and the longer this continues the more unlikely it is that he rediscovers the player he once was. At this point, I wouldn’t count on it, but as a low-end gamble, does it really hurt?

What are your thoughts on these hitters? Whose regression could be for real? Who do you expect to see a rebound from?

Previous Statistical Analysis:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

NFL Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings: Top 15 Kickers

Eric Stashin — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:06:26 -0500

Every week I talk about not ignoring your kicker, as they really do make a difference. Let’s take a look at how I’d rank them for Week 13:

Nate Kaeding - San Diego Chargers - at Cleveland
David Akers - Philadelphia Eagles - at Atlanta
John Carney - New Orleans Saints - at Washington
Ryan Longwell - Minnesota Vikings - at Arizona
Stephen Gostkowski - New England Patriots - at Miami
Shayne Graham - Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Detroit
Jeff Reed - Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. Oakland
Matt Prater - Denver Broncos - at Kansas City
Robbie Gould - Chicago Bears - vs. St. Louis
Matt Stover - Indianapolis Colts - vs. Tennessee
Dan Carpenter - Miami Dolphins - vs. New England
Lawrence Tynes - New York Giants - vs. Dallas
Mason Crosby - Green Bay Packers - vs. Baltimore
Nick Folk - Dallas Cowboys - at New York Giants
Rob Bironas - Tennessee Titans - at Indianapolis

Will Adam Vinatieri be back this week? Who knows, but with Matt Stover kicking well who knows how this situation will play itself out. For now, I’m sticking with Stover on this list.

While Rob Bironas may not be the best option, he leads the league having hit four field goals of at least 50 yards. That makes him a great last resort option, no?

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

NFL Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings: Top 15 Defenses

Eric Stashin — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:03:49 -0500

Sometimes things just seem to have the perfect scenario screaming that they belong in the top spot, don’t they? That’s the case when it comes to defenses for Week 13. Who got the nod? Let’s take a look:

Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Detroit
Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. Oakland
New Orleans Saints - at Washington
San Diego Chargers - at Cleveland
Chicago Bears - vs. St. Louis
Carolina Panthers - vs. Tampa Bay
Denver Broncos - at Kansas City
Philadelphia Eagles - at Atlanta
Buffalo Bills - vs. New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars - vs. Houston
Seattle Seahawks - vs. San Francisco
New England Patriots - at Miami
New York Jets - at Buffalo
San Francisco 49ers - at Seattle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - at Carolina

The Bengals have given up the fewest points in the league and are taking on the lowly Lions offense. Seems like the perfect marriage to me.

Call it a gut feeling, but the Broncos defense may not be one of the better plays against the Chiefs this week. I know how bad the Chiefs are, but the offense has looked different with Jamaal Charles in the backfield.

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Fantasy Impact: Shoppach to Tampa Bay

Eric Stashin — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:14:47 -0500

The Tampa Bay Rays acquired catcher Kelly Shoppach from the Cleveland Indians in exchange for a player to be named later, according to Bill Chastain of mlb.com (click here for the article).

The move gives Shoppach a second chance, as it is assumed he will get regular catching duties for the team, replacing Dioner Navarro (who could be non-tendered). Shoppach is just one year removed from a 21 home run season, when he stepped in for an injured Victor Martinez. His performance sent him flying up fantasy draft boards for 2009.

He struggled with his average in 2009, costing him playing time. However, that shouldn’t be alarming given his recent strikeout rates in 2006 (110 AB, 40.9 percent), 2007 (161 AB, 34.8 percent), 2008 (352 AB, 37.8 percent), and 2009 (271 AB 36.2, percent).

Those are scary numbers that make it almost impossible for him to post a usable average. His .261 mark in 2008 came courtesy of an unrealistic BABIP of .359. Last season he fell to a believable level of .286, sending his average plummeting to .214. While he could see some increased luck in 2010, hitting above .250 is going to be an accomplishment in itself.

The power, however, is extremely real. He has maintained an above average home run per fly ball ratio over the past few seasons (17.1 percent, 22.1 percent, and 18.5 percent). With an opportunity to play regularly, he’s going to produce 20-plus home runs. In a Rays line-up that should provide opportunities for him drive in runs, that’s going to make him worth considering in all two-catcher fantasy formats. Just make sure you have a solid average team surrounding him.

The Indians are no worse from this deal as they are perhaps the deepest catching team in the league. While Lou Marson (acquired as part of the Cliff Lee trade) may get a look early on, it is only a matter of time before Carlos Santana is given the chance to take the job.

The Indians gave Santana a full season at Double-A in 2009, where he hit .290, with 23 home runs, 97 RBI, and 91 run scored. He also showed a tremendous eye at the plate, walking 17.4 percent of the time, which lead to an OBP of .413. The average was steadied by a very realistic BABIP of .314.

This quickly pushes him up to one of the best prospects for 2010, as he could have value in all formats before long. Those in long-term keeper leagues, or two-catcher formats, will want to target him from the outset. He could emerge as a top 10 catcher by the end of the season.

What are your thoughts? Who is the biggest benefactor of the deal? Will Carlos Santana get a shot to start the season as the Indians catcher?

Previous Fantasy Impacts of Recent Transactions:

Hermida to Boston

Teahen for Fields & Getz

Iwamura to Pittsburgh

Hardy for Gomez

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings: Top 15 Tight Ends

Eric Stashin — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:36:28 -0500

Injuries continue to wreak havoc on the tight end position. Now it is Brent Celek who is banged up, and though he is expected to play, he has to be knocked down a couple of spots. Let’s look at where he falls and all the rest for Week 13:

Dallas Clark - Indianapolis Colts - vs. Tennessee
Antonio Gates - San Diego Chargers - at Cleveland
Vernon Davis - San Francisco 49ers - at Seattle
Visanthe Shiancoe - Minnesota Vikings - at Arizona
Kellen Winslow - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - at Carolina
Jason Witten - Dallas Cowboys - at New York Giants
Tony Gonzalez - Atlanta Falcons - vs. Philadelphia
Brent Celek - Philadelphia Eagles - at Atlanta
Greg Olsen - Chicago Bears - vs. St. Louis
Heath Miller - Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. Oakland
Kevin Boss - New York Giants - vs. Dallas
John Carlson - Seattle Seahawks - vs. San Francisco
Tony Sheffler - Denver Broncos - at Kansas City
Zach Miller - Oakland Raiders - at Pittsburgh
Fred Davis - Washington Redskins - vs. New Orleans

Thoughts:

While Brent Celek has been a tremendous story in 2009, playing through torn ligaments in his hand is clearly going to have an impact on his potential value. Knock him down a few spots, accordingly.
Thanks to the presence of Brett Favre, Visanthe Shiancoe has been a touchdown machine this season. He’s second among tight ends with eight (Vernon David has nine) and has a touchdown in each of the past two games. That certainly helps his potential value in what could be a shootout with the Cardinals.
Kellen Winslow has emerged as the main passing threat for the Buccaneers. Even against a tough passing defense, you have to like his chances of having a big week given the opportunities he should get.
While Kevin Boss failed to score in Week 12, he had four touchdowns in his previous three games. You have to like how he has developed into a go to receiver for the Giants.

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

Other Week 13 Rankings:

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football.

Where Should Fantasy Owners Target David Ortiz In 2010?

Eric Stashin — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:33:17 -0500

Did anyone think they would see the day where David Ortiz was sitting with an ADP of around 190? Two years ago that would be almost unthinkable, coming off a 2007 season where he hit .332 with 35 HR. Two years and 957 AB later, he has hit just .250 with 51 HR, sending owners fleeing.

Before we even get to his failures at the plate the past two seasons, his position causes a major concern. Unless someone is a real slugger, it is tough to lose the flexibility of your utility spot.

If you play in the most lenient of formats, he could still have eligibility at first base (he played six games there in 2009). In most leagues, however, that’s not the case. When he was bashing 40+ home runs and routinely driving in 100+ runs, it was easy to justify. Now, with that far from a guarantee, it’s not such a simple question.

Last season he hit .238, courtesy of a below average BABIP of .266. It marked the second straight season of bad luck, after posting a .273 mark in 2008.

He struggled with strikeouts in 2009, posting an overall mark of 24.8%. That’s above his career mark of 21.4% and is his worst mark since he was getting regular playing time. Just look at the five previous seasons:

2004 - 22.9%
2005 - 20.6%
2006 - 21.0%
2007 - 18.8%
2008 - 17.8%

Before we declare him on the decline, look at his split between the first and second half from 2009:

First Half - 26.6%
Second Half - 22.6%

No, it’s not a huge improvement, but the second half is much more along the lines of what he has done throughout his career. It at least brings a little ray of hope, doesn’t it?

Another part of his problem was his flyball rates. While he has always been one to hit a significant number of balls in the air, he was at an all-time high last season at 50.5%. It’s pretty simple, flyballs are less likely to fall in for hits, it’s just the nature of the beast. If he can get his flyball rate back down, even a little bit, he’s going to see an improvement in his average.

Couple that with an improvement in his strikeout rate and a little more luck and you are looking at something usable. I know, there are an awful lot of ifs involved there, but none of them seem overly unrealistic.

As for the power, it may just be a fact that it is not what it once was. Since 2006 he’s watched his rate diminish each season:

2006 - 26.1%
2007 - 17.2%
2008 - 14.8%
2009 - 13.4%

While it is impossible to expect him to get back to the 2006 levels, last season’s mark put him in the neighborhood of Casey Blake (13.5%), Paul Konerko (13.2%) and Robinson Cano (13.0%). Let’s be honest, Ortiz is a better power option than any of them, even on the decline.

While a decrease in flyballs is going to lead to less power, an improved HR/FB rate will help to offset that. I do think it’s possible that he reaches the 30 HR plateau once again and after barely missing 100 RBI (he had 99), he could reach that mark as well.

The runs are not going to be back up to the lofty levels he has posted in the past. He hasn’t reached 80 in the past two seasons and no longer putting up the averages he once did (and thus a lower OBP), means less runs scored. It’s easy math.

Still, with the potential to post a usable average and plenty of power, I do consider him a steal where he is currently going (the end of the 15th round). Would I draft him much before that? Probably not, but if I have secured the pitching and speed that I need, if he is sitting on the board around the 14th or 15th round, I think he’s a perfect selection. You are likely going to get significantly better value than that, even if he isn’t the player he used to be.

What are your thoughts? Do you think Ortiz could rebound from the past two seasons? Where do you think he should be drafted?

Check out some of our early 2010 projections, including:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Everth Cabrera: An Early 2010 Fantasy Baseball Projection

Eric Stashin — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 07:14:48 -0500

Young shortstops are getting a lot of focus these days, but the names generally mentioned are Alcides Escobar and Elvis Andrus. There’s a third speedster who belongs to be included in that group, the Padres’ Everth Cabrera.

Before we get into too much detail, let’s take a look at his line from last season:

377 At Bats
.255 Batting Average (96 Hits)
2 Home Runs
31 RBI
59 Runs
25 Stolen Bases
.342 On Base Percentage
.361 Slugging Percentage
.328 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Prior to 2009, Cabrera never played above Single-A. Having been selected as the third overall pick in the 2008 Rule V Draft (out of the Colorado Rockies system), the Padres had no choice but to keep him on the Major League roster (though nine stolen bases during Spring Training helped make their decision) or offer him back.

He struggled with injuries a bit, having surgery on his hand in April, limiting him to just 377 AB on the season. When he was healthy, he showed the world just how much speed he had, which shouldn’t have been any surprise. In 2008 he stole 73 bases at Single-A, so how fast he is should not be in question.

He had 25 SB last season, placing him in the top 30. That says a lot, considering the leap he took along with the time he missed. With a year of experience under his belt (and hopefully a full year’s health), there really is no telling how many SBs he could get.

He struggled with his average, posting a .255 mark, but it’s not because of his eye at the plate. He walked 10.9 percent of the time, so if he continues to mature and learn to simply make contact, his speed will certainly allow him to carry a significantly above average BABIP. It’s not going to happen all at once, but he should take a step forward in 2010.

The real advantage he has over Andrus and Escobar is that he plays for what is a terrible offensive team. They aren’t expected to go very far, so they can afford to show more patience and allow him to develop at the top of the order. He got 234 at bats in the leadoff spot last season, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t see the majority of his at bats in that slot once again.

With Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff lined up behind him, he should get an opportunity to score plenty of runs.

With that said, let’s take a look at what I’d project him for in 2010:

.270 (135-500), 3 HR, 40 RBI, 90 R, 47 SB, .328 BABIP, .368 OBP, .378 SLG

As you can see, I’m projecting him to be a high speed, pretty good runs option, while not hurting you in the average department. He’s going to have some highs and some lows, but what he should continue to get is an opportunity, no matter what happens.

That’s just as important as anything else for a young player and should continue to allow him to develop into one of the elite stolen base threats in the league.

What do you think of him? Is he going to be able to steal that many bases in 2010? Hit for a better average?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings: Top 40 Wide Receivers

Eric Stashin — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 07:12:11 -0500

Health concerns certainly throws the rankings into a spin. Will DeSean Jackson play? What do you do with Calvin Johnson? Let’s take a look at these questions and all the rest of the Week 13 rankings:

Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts - vs. Tennessee
Andre Johnson - Houston Texans - at Jacksonville
Randy Moss - New England Patriots - at Miami
Vincent Jackson - San Diego Chargers - at Cleveland
Brandon Marshall - Denver Broncos - at Kansas City
Larry Fitzgerald - Arizona Cardinals - vs. Minnesota
Chad Ochocinco - Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Detroit
Wes Welker - New England Patriots - at Miami
Sidney Rice - Minnesota Vikings - at Arizona
Miles Austin - Dallas Cowboys - at New York Giants
DeSean Jackson - Philadelphia Eagles - at Atlanta
Mike Sims-Walker - Jacksonville Jaguars - vs. Houston
Roddy White - Atlanta Falcons - vs. Philadelphia
Greg Jennings - Green Bay Packers - vs. Baltimore
Hines Ward - Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. Oakland
Derrick Mason - Baltimore Ravens - at Green Bay
Michael Crabtree - San Francisco 49ers - at Seattle
Steve Smith - Carolina Panthers - vs. Tampa Bay
Anquan Boldin - Arizona Cardinals - vs. Minnesota
Calvin Johnson - Detroit Lions - at Cincinnati
Donald Driver - Green Bay Packers - vs. Baltimore
Steve Smith - New York Giants - vs. Dallas
Pierre Garcon - Indianapolis Colts - vs. Tennessee
Marques Colston - New Orleans Saints - at Washington
Terrell Owens - Buffalo Bills - vs. New York Jets
Santonio Holmes - Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. Oakland
Jeremy Maclin - Philadelphia Eagles - at Atlanta
Nate Burleson - Seattle Seahawks - vs. San Francisco
Devin Hester - Chicago Bears - vs. St. Louis
Roy Williams - Dallas Cowboys - at New York Giants
Mario Manningham - New York Giants - vs. Dallas
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Seattle Seahawks - vs. San Francisco
Percy Harvin - Minnesota Vikings - at Arizona
Jerricho Cotchery - New York Jets - at Buffalo
Chris Chambers - Kansas City Chiefs - vs. Denver
Laveranues Coles - Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Detroit
Mohamed Massaquoi - Cleveland Browns - vs. San Diego
Santana Moss - Washington Redskins - vs. New Orleans
Eddie Royal - Denver Broncos - at Kansas City
Kenny Britt - Tennessee Titans - at Indianapolis

Thoughts:

Entering the season would anyone have expected DeSean Jackson to be ranked the No. Three wide receiver in any week, ahead of both Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss? When you get Atlanta’s poor passing defense, that’s what happens, at least in my original draft of these rankings. His Week 12 concussion drops him outside the Top 10 and you have to watch the news extremely closely, as it’s possible he doesn’t play in Week 13.

Sidney Rice has quickly emerged as the go-to receiver for Brett Favre and the Vikings offense. Getting to face the Cardinals, who are going to try and turn the game into a shootout, only makes him appear that much more appealing.

Like Drew Brees, going against the Redskins defense drags Marques Colston down a few notches, as does the number of weapons the Saints offense has. It’s just tough to depend on him in any given week.

Brandon Marshall proved on Thanksgiving that it doesn’t matter who is defending him, the guy is just a monster. The fact that he is facing the Chiefs is all the better.

If Calvin Johnson was healthy, he’d be ranked significantly higher. Check the news all week, but on Thanksgiving you could tell that the knee injury was certainly limiting him.

Roy Williams has been coming around of late, with touchdowns in three of his last four games. Granted, two of those games saw him pick up less than 20 yards receiving, but then again he’s facing a Giants defense that has watch opponents march down the field through the air of late. He seems like a solid play for a change.

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings: Top 35 Running Backs

Eric Stashin — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 07:08:53 -0500

A week where Adrian Peterson is not only not the top running back, but outside the top three? Let’s take a look at who assumes the top few spots, as well as all the rankings, for Week 13:

DeAngelo Williams - Carolina Panthers - vs. Tampa Bay
Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars - vs. Houston
Chris Johnson - Tennessee Titans - at Indianapolis
Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings - at Arizona
Cedric Benson - Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Detroit
Ray Rice - Baltimore Ravens - at Green Bay
Rashard Mendenhall - Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. Oakland
Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons - vs. Philadelphia
LaDanian Tomlinson - San Diego Chargers - at Cleveland
Matt Forte - Chicago Bears - vs. St. Louis
Frank Gore - San Francisco 49ers - at Seattle
Steven Jackson - St. Louis Rams - at Chicago
Ricky Williams - Miami Dolphins - vs. New England
Thomas Jones - New York Jets - at Buffalo
Knowshon Moreno - Denver Broncos - at Kansas City
Steve Slaton - Houston Texans - at Jacksonville
LeSean McCoy - Philadelphia Eagles - at Atlanta
Marion Barber - Dallas Cowboys - at New York Giants
Jamaal Charles - Kansas City Chiefs - vs. Denver
Rock Cartwright - Washington Redskins - vs. New Orleans
Joseph Addai - Indianapolis Colts - vs. Tennessee
Brandon Jacobs - New York Giants - vs. Dallas
Justin Forsett - Seattle Seahawks - vs. San Francisco
Ryan Grant - Green Bay Packers - vs. Baltimore
Laurence Maroney - New England Patriots - at Miami
Jonathan Stewart - Carolina Panthers - vs. Tampa Bay
Kevin Smith - Detroit Lions - at Cincinnati
Marshawn Lynch - Buffalo Bills - vs. New York Jets
Pierre Thomas - New Orleans Saints - at Washington
Darren Sproles - San Diego Chargers - at Cleveland
Correll Buckhalter - Denver Broncos - at Kansas City
Tim Hightower - Arizona Cardinals - vs. Minnesota
Beanie Wells - Arizona Cardinals - vs. Minnesota
Jamal Lewis - Cleveland Browns - vs. San Diego
Reggie Bush - New Orleans Saints - at Washington

Thoughts:

DeAngelo Williams gets the top spot this week thanks to being one of the top running backs in the game, who gets to face off with the worst rushing defense. What more can you ask for?

Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup and is playing in a passing offense that is firing on all cylinders. I know, it looks weird seeing him at No. Four, but that doesn’t mean much. It’s just one week.

While Michael Turner may have a tough matchup, if he’s healthy is there any way you wouldn’t want to go with him?

After seeing Larry Johnson step in and have a huge game for the Bengals, you have to worry about Cedric Benson. Will he be healthy enough to play? If he is, he should be the main back, so just monitor the news for the upcoming week. If he’s playing, he’s a top five option for sure.

Matt Forte in the Top 10?! Many figured that would be a given every week for 2009, but it has far from been the case, hasn’t it? It’s a special week, getting to take on the Rams, making him a great play.

The Titans are a terrible passing defense and a halfway decent rushing defense. That certainly doesn’t seem to stack up well for Joseph Addai, does it?

Justin Forsett does have a tough matchup against the 49ers defense, so while he definitely is usable (even if Julius Jones makes his return), I wouldn’t consider him more than a low-end RB2.

It feels like Brandon Jacobs is on the sideline every three or four players, checking himself over to make sure he’s not injured. That doesn’t even mention that he just doesn’t seem to be the same type of back that he was last season. He’s turning himself into a tough play.

Speaking of tough plays, Pierre Thomas has seemed like a good matchup at times the past few weeks, only not to get the bulk of the carries. How can we trust him outside of FLEX formats?

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings: Top 25 Quarterbacks

Eric Stashin — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 07:05:57 -0500

Will Brett Favre fade in 2009? He certainly hasn’t shown any indications as he may be playing the best football of his career (which says a lot). Let’s take a look at where he falls in the rankings, as well as all the other QBs, for Week 13:

Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts - vs. Tennessee
Matt Schaub - Houston Texans - at Jacksonville
Tom Brady - New England Patriots - at Miami
Brett Favre - Minnesota Vikings - at Arizona
Philip Rivers - San Diego Chargers - at Cleveland
Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers - vs. Baltimore
Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia Eagles - at Atlanta
Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys - at New York Giants
Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Detroit
Kurt Warner - Arizona Cardinals - vs. Minnesota
Jay Cutler - Chicago Bears - vs. St. Louis
Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints - at Washington
Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. Oakland
Kyle Orton - Denver Broncos - at Kansas City
David Garrard - Jacksonville Jaguars - vs. Houston
Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle Seahawks - vs. San Francisco
Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons - vs. Philadelphia
Joe Flacco - Baltimore Ravens - at Green Bay
Vince Young - Tennessee Titans - at Indianapolis
Eli Manning - New York Giants - vs. Dallas
Matthew Stafford - Detroit Lions - at Cincinnati
Alex Smith - San Francisco 49ers - at Seattle
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Buffalo Bills - vs. New York Jets
Brady Quinn - Cleveland Browns - vs. San Diego
Matt Cassel - Kansas City Chiefs - vs. Denver

Thoughts:

Peyton Manning versus a team who has allowed over 25 passing TDs on the season? Could there possibly be a better scenario?

Tough matchup or not, how can you not like Aaron Rodgers this week? He’s already surpassed 3,000 yards passing, while throwing for 22 TDs. His three rushing TDs don’t hurt either.

With as bad as the Giants passing defense has been recently, how big of a game could Tony Romo have this week?

Facing the Redskins passing defense certainly knocks Drew Brees down, a lot, as no quarterback had thrown for over 200 yards since Matthew Stafford in Week Three before Donovan McNabb this past Sunday. That includes facing Donovan McNabb (in their first matchup), Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, and Kyle Orton. He’s still usable, but you have to downgrade him a bit.

Will Ben Roethlisberger or Kurt Warner be healthy enough to play? That’s the biggest question surrounding them after missing Week 12. Monitor the news.

Matthew Stafford has been your typical up-and-down rookie quarterback. In Week 11 he throws for five touchdown passes, only to follow it up with four interceptions in Week 12. While you don’t necessarily know what you are going to get, he has a positive matchup against the Bengals, so he’s worth taking your chances against in two-quarterback formats.

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Fantasy Football Week 12 Sleeper: Antonio Bryant

Eric Stashin — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 08:24:15 -0500

Antonio Bryant entered the 2009 season as a potential go-to receiver for fantasy owners. He set career highs in receptions (83), yards (1,248) and touchdowns (7) in 2008, but injuries have certainly put a damper on any potential upside.

After missing Weeks 9 and 10, Bryant returned last week to little fanfare. He had three catches for 40 yards, but was also the second-most targeted receiver on the team with six (Kellen Winslow led the way with 13).

That trend should continue, as the Buccaneers are not a particularly deep team at wide receiver. Winslow leads the team with 47 receptions, 483, yards and five touchdowns. He is the only player with more than 21 catches.

In fact, despite missing numerous games and being hindered by injury, Bryant is third on the team in receptions (19), second in yards (269) and second in touchdowns (2).

There is no reason to think that he can’t be productive in Week 11 against a bad Falcons passing defense:

Last week they saw the combination of Mario Manningham and Steve Smith combine for 205 yards on 10 catches.
Two weeks ago, it was Muhsin Muhammad who had 91 yards on six catches (Steve Smith had a pair of touchdown catches in the game as well).

Overall, they have allowed the fourth-most yards per game at 253.4 yards. It’s not only yardage, but they have also allowed 16 TDs through the air, 10th most in the league.

I wouldn’t depend on him as anything more than a WR3, especially with a rookie QB leading the offense. Still, given the matchup, if there is any week you are going to take the gamble on him, this is the one.

What are your thoughts? Will he be usable?

Other Week 12 Sleepers:

Justin Forsett

Make sure to check out our Week 12 Rankings:

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Ten Worst Pitchers' HR/FB from 2009

Eric Stashin — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 08:17:38 -0500

We have all seen pitchers suffer from whiplash, consistently turning to watch ball after ball sore over the fence. The question is, is that a problem that is going to plague them once again or is there hope of overcoming it and righting the ship in 2010?

Let’s take a look at the pitchers with the 10 worst home run/flyball rates in 2009 to see:

1) Braden Looper: 15.8 percent

The player with the worst HR/FB in the league last season, does anyone really care? While it is a fairly sizable jump (he had an 11.7 percent mark in 2008), he’s a fantasy non-factor as a starting pitcher no matter what.

2) Rick Porcello: 14.1 percent

There were some definite growing pains for the 20-year old rookie, having allowed 23 HR last season. It was pretty steady across the board as well, like 11 HR allowed at home vs. 12 on the road and 13 allowed prior to the All-Star Break vs. 10 afterwards.

As a pitcher who posted a Top Five groundball rate, however, I would definitely expect this to improve with more experience. Now, his strikeout rate is another issue, but that’s a story for another day. He threw 77.1 percent (second to only Mike Pelfrey) of his pitches as fastballs, which likely played a role. Like I said, more experience should yield better results.

3) Trevor Cahill: 13.2 percent

For his minor league career (245.7 innings) he posted a flyball rate of just 25.7 percent and allowed eight home runs. In his first Major League season he saw 27 balls fly over the fence despite keeping his flyball rate relatively low (34.1 percent).

Seeing 20 of those home runs coming at home, in a park that is more conducive for pitchers, may be the most telling number to point to. Look for the number of home runs he allows to decrease, potentially dramatically, for the upcoming season. With it will go his ERA, giving him some pretty good upside for 2010.

We’ll take a closer look at him across the board in the coming weeks.

4) Joe Blanton: 13.0 percent

Much like Braden Looper I have to ask, who cares? He’s a mediocre pitcher, which is a polite way of saying that he is not worth owning in any format. While it’s possible he improves on the number of home runs he allowed, it’s no guarantee in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark.

Then again, 14 of the 30 HR he allowed last season came on the road. The plain fact is that he isn’t very good.

5t) Joe Saunders: 12.8 percent

After marks of 8.6 percent, 8.8 percent, and 8.7 percent the previous three seasons, his 2009 performance sticks out like a sore thumb. I’d expect him to improve on that performance and get back to the days where he is allowing less than a home run per nine innings.

5t) Josh Beckett: 12.8 percent

He’s had worse seasons (15.4 percent in 2006), as well as many better ones. He could go either way, but more times then not his year’s have been better than what he did in 2009. Look for an improvement there, at least a modest one.

5t) Ricky Romero: 12.8 percent

Over his minor league career he posted a HR/9 of 0.75, so seeing it jump to 0.91 in the Major Leagues is not very unrealistic. The problem, however, is that the latter came courtesy of a 26.6 percent flyball rate, better than his career minor league mark of 33.1 percent.

The signs could potentially lead to a bigger regression than we saw in the second half, but we’ll need to delve much deeper into it in the near future. At first glance, however, he’s looking like a pitcher I wouldn’t want to touch.

8 ) Yovani Gallardo: 12.3 percent

After missing the majority of the 2008 campaign, seeing him struggle with the long ball a bit shouldn’t be a huge surprise. He improved dramatically in the second half, allowing just seven home runs over 71.0 innings (after allowing 14 home runs over 114.2 innings in the first half). Look for a dramatic improvement in 2010.

9) Bronson Arroyo: 11.9 percent

Unless he gets traded, don’t look for a drastic improvement. Over the last two seasons’ he has allowed 60 HR. He’s a notorious hot and cold pitcher, which clearly makes him a low-end option because his overall ERA is likely to be sub par.

10 )Jorge de la Rosa: 11.8 percent

This is a pitcher that needs a full article look at him to really determine what he’s capable of. Still, from a HR/FB perspective, this appears to be what we are going to get from him. Over his career (589.0 innings), he has a career mark of 11.0 percent. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however. Not by a long shot.

What are your thoughts on these pitchers? Who could see the biggest improvement?

Previous Statistical Anysis:

Ten Best Batters’ HR/FB

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Week 12 Fantasy Football Sleeper: Justin Forsett

Eric Stashin — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 08:07:24 -0500

While there was talk of Julius Jones making his return this week, there now are some pretty big questions considering that, as he’s been limited in practice the past two days.

That opens the door for Justin Forsett, who had likely fallen out of favor after he was pitiful on the ground last week (8 rushes for 9 yards and 1 TD).

That, of course, would be ignoring his contribution through the air, where he had eight catches for 80 yards. He’s actually become an important cog in the Seahawks passing game, picking up 18 catches over the past three weeks.

Now, sprinkle in the fact that he’s facing the St. Louis Rams this week, the team who is the fifth worst in the league against the run, allowing 146.4 yards per game. They’ve also allowed the fourth most rushing TDs, at 14.

The last two weeks they’ve been burned by:

Tim Hightower - 110 yards / Beanie Wells - 74 yards, 1 TD
Reggie Bush - 81 yards, 1 TD (on only six carries)

Obviously, it’s not just a one-week problem, either. Back in Week One, when these two teams squared off for the first time, it was Julius Jones who rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown (while also adding two catches for 19 yards).

It all points to a big day for Forsett, who is currently owned in just 52 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 45.7 percent of ESPN leagues. He’s certainly usable as a RB2 in all formats and certainly is worth grabbing if you need a back.

What are your thoughts? Will he be usable?

Make sure to check out out Week 12 Rankings:

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Baseball Prospect Report: Allen Craig

Eric Stashin — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 06:39:56 -0500

There are some prospects who possesses a bat so good that an organization will try them anywhere across the diamond in order to find a spot.

The St. Louis Cardinals have such a prospect in Allen Craig, who has played all over the infield as well as being tested in the outfield.

He’s seen minimal time at SS and 2B, and there is no chance that a hole opens up at 1B courtesy of Albert Pujols. He has spent the majority of his time at 3B, though his long-term potential there is minimal despite the team’s potential need. As Baseball America recently said:

“His lack of range and arm strength, plus a quirky throwing motion, work against him at the hot corner.”

Hence the decision to transition him to the outfield, where, depending on the offseason moves of the team, could see an opening. Remember, the team had four potential outfielders in 2009, but two of them, Matt Holliday and Rick Ankiel, are free agents with no guarantee that either will return.

If he continues to hit the way he has, they will be forced to give him an opportunity, one way or another.

Allen spent the entire 2009 season at Triple-A, where he posted the following statistics:

472 At Bats
.322 Batting Average (152 Hits)
26 Home Runs
83 RBI
78 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.374 On Base Percentage
.547 Slugging Percentage
.359 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously the BABIP is a bit unrealistic, but he’s posted usable averages in previous years that go along with repeatable numbers. Look no further than his .304 average in 2008 at Double-A that came courtesy of a .332 BABIP.

He has displayed a solid eye at the plate, striking out 20.1% of the time in ‘09 (and 17.2% in ‘08). While it would be expected that he regresses some once getting promoted to the Majors, he’s not likely to be at a range that cannot be offset.

Unless he seriously falls off a cliff with his eye at the plate, he should be able to post an average around .280, at worst.

The power is extremely for real, as he’s hit at every level:

2007: 24 HR between Single & Double-A
2008: 22 HR at Double-A
2009: 26 HR at Triple-A

As Baseball America says, “Craig has a level swing with good torque and bat speed. He generates the best and most consistent power.” They also dubbed him the best power hitter in the organization.

Not only that, he delivered when his team needed him most. As Erick Mack of CBS Sports says, “He put his Triple-A team on his back down the stretch, too, getting hits in 40 of the final 46 games en route to the playoffs. In the second half alone, Craig went an eye-opening .405-18-51-47-2 (.449-.764)”

Those are some mighty impressive numbers, especially when you consider the level of competition, and at 25 years old, what does the 2008 8th Round draft pick have left to prove?

If the Cardinals aren’t going to have a spot for him (alongside Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick), they certainly could trade him to help acquire a necessary piece to the puzzle.

One way or another, he deserves a chance in the Majors and should be on your fantasy radar. If he does get an opportunity to play everyday, he should approach 25 HR, as he has at every other level of professional baseball.

Couple that with a solid average and good approach at the plate and he easily could prove usable in all formats.

What are your thoughts? How good do you think Craig could be? Is he someone that you are keeping an eye on?

You can read other recent Prospect Reports including:

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Should Omir Santos Start for Mets in 2010?

Eric Stashin — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 07:40:54 -0500

Yesterday, Topps released its All-Star Rookie team for 2009 and while there were some justified selections and some questionable ones, the player that has the most intrigue for me is Mets C Omir Santos. He beat out phenom Matt Wieters, who most thought would be in contention to take home the Rookie of the Year award in the American League.

Did Santos’ season really justify the award? First, let’s take a look at his statistics:

281 At-Bats
.260 Batting Average (73 Hits)
7 Home Runs
40 RBI
28 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.296 On Base Percentage
.391 Slugging Percentage
.287 Batting Average on Balls in Play

I know Wieters did not come close to expectations, but Santos’ performance is far from tantalizing. While he had his moments early in the season delivering some big hits for a Mets team that was desperate to grasp onto anything, Santos’ second half left a lot to be desired.

He hit just .250 with three HR and 16 RBI over 128 AB, exposing him a bit for what he truly is: a 28-year-old career minor leaguer.

While people want to get excited when someone like him shows signs of success, having held on for so long, there is a reason he didn’t get his first taste of the big leagues until 2008, his eighth year of professional baseball (he was drafted in the 21st round of the 2001 draft by the New York Yankees).

We are talking about a player who was a career .258 hitter over 2,229 minor league at-bats, hitting just 32 HR. In fact, he only had two seasons where he surpassed the total he hit last season: he hit eight between two levels of Single-A in ‘02 and 10 at Double-A in ‘05.

It would make no sense for the Mets to look for a catcher to platoon with that type of performance. Exactly what do they think they are going to get? After all these years, do they expect him to suddenly figure things out? Do they think he’s going to become a slugger, or even someone who can post a decent average?

Santos is none of those things, and by now we all need to realize that. What he showed in the second half is the type of production he has been showing since he was an unheralded draft choice many moons ago.

Does keeping him around in order to be the second catcher make sense? Absolutely, but if the Mets enter 2010 with expectations of him making any type of impact at the plate, they are making a major miscalculation.

As far as fantasy owners are concerned, even those in two-catcher formats should be keeping their distance. He just doesn’t have the potential to be of much value to anyone, even if he is splitting time and getting a fair share of at-bats.

What do you think? Am I being too harsh on Santos? Do you think he could contribute offensively for the Mets in 2010?

Check out some write-ups on other catchers I did for 2010: Geovany Soto .

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Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings: Top 15 Kickers

Eric Stashin — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 06:32:27 -0500

As I always say, do not disregard the potential value of a kicker to your fantasy roster. Let’s take a look at how I rank them for fantasy Week 12:

David Akers - Philadelphia Eagles - vs. Washington
Nate Kaeding - San Diego Chargers - vs. Kansas City
Mason Crosby - Green Bay Packers - at Detroit
Stephen Gostkowski - New England Patriots - at New Orleans
John Carney - New Orleans Saints - vs. New England
Lawrence Tynes - New York Giants - at Denver
Ryan Longwell - Minnesota Vikings - vs. Chicago
Nick Folk - Dallas Cowboys - vs. Oakland
Jason Elam - Atlanta Falcons - vs. Tampa Bay
Dan Carpenter - Miami Dolphins - at Buffalo
Neil Rackers - Arizona Cardinals - at Tennessee
Shayne Graham - Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Cleveland
Rob Bironas - Tennessee Titans - vs. Arizona
Olindo Mare - Seattle Seahawks - at St. Louis
Matt Stover - Indianapolis Colts - at Houston

Thoughts:

Having connected on 10 kicks of 40 yards or more and facing one of the toughest defenses in the league, is it hard to imagine Akers having a big day?
While Lawrence Tynes has struggled at times this season, he’s one of the biggest point gainers in the league among kickers, thanks in part to the Giants constant struggles in the red zone. Denver is one of the best defenses in the league, allowing 183 points on the season, so it is very possible the Giants are held to a few field goals this week.

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

Other Week 12 Rankings:

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NFL Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings: Top 15 Defenses

Eric Stashin — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 06:29:49 -0500

With the Saints and Patriots squaring off, neither find their way into the Top 15 for Week 12. So, who takes the place? Let’s take a look:

Philadelphia Eagles - vs. Washington
Green Bay Packers - at Detroit
Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Cleveland
Dallas Cowboys - vs. Oakland
Baltimore Ravens - vs. Pittsburgh
San Diego Chargers - vs. Kansas City
Minnesota Vikings - vs. Chicago
Atlanta Falcons - vs. Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh Steelers - at Baltimore
Seattle Seahawks - at St. Louis
Carolina Panthers - at New York Jets
San Francisco 49ers - vs. Jacksonville
Indianapolis Colts - at Houston
Miami Dolphins - at Buffalo
New York Giants - at Denver

Thoughts

The Eagles defense has been among the best this season and now get to square off against a Redskins team that will be without it’s top two running backs (Clinton Portis & Ladell Betts). You have to like their chances of posting another solid performance.

We’re going to find out pretty quickly if Brady Quinn’s “renaissance” was a fluke or if it was for real. The Bengals have allowed the third fewest points in the league, at 167.

I know the Seahawks defense hasn’t been anything exceptional, but the Rams offense is pretty much one-dimensional, especially with Marc Bulger out of action. They are a solid play in all formats for the coming week.

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

Other Week 12 Rankings

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Kickers

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Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Whose 2009 Power Surge Is for Real?

Eric Stashin — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 06:27:50 -0500

In order to look at which player’s had the biggest power surge from 2008 to 2009, I looked at the HR/FB rate for all players who had over 400 plate appearances in both season’s. Let’s take a look at the 10 biggest gainers and determine if their power surge is for real or a mirage:

1) Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins - +13.9 percent

Who saw this one coming? Then again, outside of two months (he had 11 in May and eight in August), he really was the same old Mauer. With a flyball percentage that has not exceeded 30 percent since his Major League debut in 2004 (107 AB), it’s hard to imagine him being able to repeat the 28 HR he posted in 2009.

It’s realistic to think that the power will be greater than it was in previous seasons (his previous career high was 13, the only other season he cracked double-digits), but not to this extent.

2) Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies - +11.8 percent

While it was still greater than his mark during his rookie campaign (13.1%), it is becoming more credible to believe that 2008 was the outlier. I’d look for his power to continue in 2010 and beyond.

3) Adam Jones - Baltimore Orioles - +10.9 percent

It’s not like his mark jumped to something completely unrealistic, sitting at 17.8 percent in 2009. While it is unlikely that he maintains that number, he also saw his flyball rate go from 35.4 percent in 2008 to 28.1 percent in 2009.

Even if he is unable to maintain his HR/FB, it’s very realistic to believe that he will be able to maintain the home run total he displayed in 2009 (19) thanks to an improved flyball rate. If he is able to maintain his HR/FB rate, while also increasing his flyball rate to his previous levels, the power would actually take a major step forward. At the very least, look for a repeat performance with the chance for so much more.

4) Raul Ibanez - Philadelphia Phillies - +10.4 percent

With the move to Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, is it really a surprise to see him on this list? However, that logic is flawed, as he hit 21 of his 34 home runs on the road. He also saw a huge dropoff in power after the All-Star Break (as well as returning from his injury), with just 12 home runs in the second half. I wouldn’t bank on him being able to repeat the home run display from 2009.

5t) Mark Reynolds - Arizona Diamondbacks - +7.8 percent

There’s no doubt that he possesses a ton of power, but very few players can post a 26 percent HR/RB rate and maintain it every season. In fact, only one player had a HR/FB rate of at least 25 percent in both 2008 & 2009 and that was Ryan Howard. Power or not, there’s likely going to be a fall in his power totals.

5t) Jason Bartlett - Tampa Bay Rays - +7.8 percent

After hitting just 11 HR over his first 1,533 career at-bats, does anyone really think he’s suddenly going to post double-digit home run totals every season? In fact, his previous career best HR/FB was 4.6 percent in 2005 in 224 AB. It’s highly unlikely he comes close to the 8.7 percent he posted in 2009.

7) Michael Young - Texas Rangers - +7.7 percent

There was a time that he was a power threat, but with just 35 home runs over his previous three seasons, no one expected him to suddenly look like the player of old, smacking 22 home runs.

While he had the same 11 home runs before and after the All-Star Break, his second half had nearly 150 fewer AB. Considering he had only posted a double-digit HR/FB in one season prior to 2009 (14.2 percent in 2005), look for his power to dissipate in 2010.

8t) Brandon Inge - Detroit Tigers - +6.2 percent

He had only posted a HR/FB in double-digits once before (14.3 percent in 2006), and considering how long of a career he’s had it is hard to say that he is anything but what he’s shown before. He’s established himself as more of a mid-teens power hitter, so I wouldn’t enter 2010 expecting much more than that.

8t) Derrek Lee - Philadelphia Phillies - +6.2 percent

Could it be that he just finally fully recovered from his wrist injury? He’s always been a double-digit HR/FB guy, even in his down seasons. His 2009 campaign resurgence was not only based on his increase here, however, but from a career high flyball rate of 45.7 percent (since 2002, his best mark was 40.9 percent). No matter how you slice it, the power is likely to fall.

10) Derek Jeter - New York Yankees - +5.6 percent

You have to point to the New Yankees Stadium for the reason for this jump. His flyball rate was consistent from his prior seasons and up until 2007 & 2008, his HR/FB rate was actually similar to his 2009 mark. There is every reason to believe that the power was saw from him last season will continue into 2010.

What are your thoughts on these players? Who is likely to maintain his power surge from 2009? Who is likely to regress?

Make sure to check out some of our most recent 2010 projections including:

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Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings: Top 15 Tight Ends

Eric Stashin — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:01:57 -0500

The Giants managed to stifle Tony Gonzalez for much of their Week 11 matchup only to ultimately finish with eight catches, 82 yards and a touchdown. It just goes to show that even within a game, you never really know what you are going to get out of your tight end.

So, with that said, let’s take a look at how I rank them for the upcoming week:

1) Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts—at Houston

2) Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers—vs. Jacksonville

3) Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers—vs. Kansas City

4) Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons—vs. Tampa Bay

5) Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers—at Atlanta

6) Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers—at Baltimore

7) Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints—vs. New England

8) Vishante Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings—vs. Chicago

9) Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys—vs. Oakland

10) Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears—at Minnesota

11) John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks—at St. Louis

12) Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles—vs. Washington

13) Kevin Boss, New York Giants—at Denver

14) Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos—vs. New York Giants

15) Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions—vs. Green Bay

Thoughts

Dallas Clark leads all Tight Ends in receptions (65, 11 more than Heath Miller) and yards (771, 62 more than Antonio Gates). Is there any question who the best player at his position is?

Last time he faced the Redskins Brent Celek was held to just three catches for eight yards in Week Seven. You have to knock him down a few pegs because of that.

Generally, facing a poor passing defense could lead to less catches for a tight end, since the team will try to get the ball to the wide receivers on the outside. In the case of Kellen Winslow, there really isn’t much talent there, so look for Winslow to have a solid game.

Where have the touchdowns gone for Jason Witten? He has just one on the season, certainly limiting his value.

After seeing Tony Gonzalez torch the Giants in the second half, how could you not like Tony Sheffler this week?

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

Other Week 12 Rankings: Quarterbacks , Running Backs , Wide Receivers

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Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings: Top 40 Wide Receivers

Eric Stashin — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 06:38:29 -0500

The way Wes Welker, is there anyone that you would rather have? Matchups keep him from the top spot, so let’s take a look at where he and all the rest rank for Week 12:

Larry Fitzgerald - Arizona Cardinals - at Tennessee
Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts - at Houston
Wes Welker - New England Patriots - at New Orleans
Vincent Jackson - San Diego Chargers - vs. Kansas City
Randy Moss - New England Patriots - at New Orleans
Andre Johnson - Houston Texans - vs. Indianapolis
Greg Jennings - Green Bay Packers - at Detroit
Marques Colston - New Orleans Saints - vs. New England
Chad Ochocinco - Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Cleveland
Brandon Marshall - Denver Broncos - vs. New York Giants
Calvin Johnson - Detroit Lions - vs. Green Bay
Mike Sims-Walker - Jacksonville Jaguars - at San Francisco
Roddy White - Atlanta Falcons - vs. Tampa Bay
Sidney Rice - Minnesota Vikings - vs. Chicago
Miles Austin - Dallas Cowboys - vs. Oakland
DeSean Jackson - Philadelphia Eagles - vs. Washington
Anquan Boldin - Arizona Cardinals - at Tennessee
Hines Ward - Pittsburgh Steelers - at Baltimore
Steve Smith - New York Giants - at Denver
Michael Crabtree - San Francisco 49ers - vs. Jacksonville
Steve Smith - Carolina Panthers - at New York Jets
Derrick Mason - Baltimore Ravens - vs. Pittsburgh
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Seattle Seahawks - at St. Louis
Devin Hester - Chicago Bears - at Minnesota
Donald Driver - Green Bay Packers - at Detroit
Terrell Owens - Buffalo Bills - vs. Miami
Santonio Holmes - Pittsburgh Steelers - at Baltimore
Jerricho Cotchery - New York Jets - vs. Carolina
Donnie Avery - St. Louis Rams - vs. Seattle
Nate Burleson - Seattle Seahawks - at St. Louis
Santana Moss - Washington Redskins - at Philadelphia
Percy Harvin - Minnesota Vikings - vs. Chicago
Mario Manningham - New York Giants - at Denver
Chris Chambers - Kansas City Chiefs - at San Diego
Lee Evans - Buffalo Bills - vs. Miami
Steve Breaston - Arizona Cardinals - at Tennessee
Kevin Walter - Houston Texans - vs. Indianapolis
Nate Washington - Tennessee Titans - vs. Arizona
Mohamed Massaquoi - Cleveland Browns - at Cincinnati
Jeremy Maclin - Philadelphia Eagles - vs. Washington

We saw the Washington Redskins, who allow the fewest passing yards a game in the NFL, stifle the Cowboys passing offense (notably Miles Austin) who had been on fire in recent weeks. That has to make you drop DeSean Jackson down this week, though he of course still needs to be in your lineup.

Speaking of Austin, while the Raiders passing defense has been pretty good this season, I would look for him and the Cowboys to come out with something to prove in Week 12. He has just 67 yards over his last two games, so look for a statement in a big way.

Did anyone really believe that Hines Ward would be the Steelers’ top receiver in 2010? Coming off his 10 catch, 128 yard, one touchdown performance has left little doubt. For as much promise as Santonio Holmes has, he’s clearly No. 2 right now.

Michael Crabtree is coming off a solid game, catching four passes for 77 yards and a touchdown and gets to go against one of the ten worst passing defenses in the league. Seems like things are tilted in his favor for a big day.

The Steelers defense just isn’t the same when Troy Palamalu is not out there. I’d look for Derrick Mason to have a solid game against them in the coming week.

You had to know that Terrell Owens was going to put together a good game sooner or later, which finally came in Week 11 as he went off for nine receptions, 197 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins passing defense has not been great all year, so he has a good chance to follow that up with another strong outing. I know its just one game, but he is a solid WR3 in the coming week.

Chris Chambers has suddenly come to life with his new team, making him fantasy viable once again. Who saw that coming? He has 249 yards over the past three weeks.
I know the Titans have a positive matchup, but do you really trust any of their receivers? They are low-end options, unfortunately.

There are rumors that Calvin Johnson could be forced to sit out Thursday’s game (which is also the case for his QB, Matt Stafford). Follow the news over the next few days before making any decisions, but put in a claim for a potential replacement so you are prepared.

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

Other Week 12 Rankings:

Quarterbacks
Running Backs

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Is Geovany Soto a Good Fantasy Baseball Pick in 2010?

Eric Stashin — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 06:36:06 -0500

Geovany Soto entered the 2008 season as a player with a ton of upside potential, having made his presence felt in a 2007 cup of coffee (.389, 3 HR in 54 AB). Having lived up to his potential, owners entered 2009 thinking that he was easily a top five catcher in all formats, taking him early in drafts to ensure they got production out of a position that generally doesn’t offer much.

Unfortunately, saying that he fell flat would be an understatement. His season was a disaster, with inability and injury holding him to a line of:

331 At Bats
.218 Batting Average (72 Hits)
11 Home Runs
47 RBI
27 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.321 On Base Percentage
.381 Slugging Percentage
.251 Batting Average on Balls in Play

From a player who posted a .504 slugging percentage in 2008, it’s easy to see what went wrong, at least in part. The power just wasn’t there, with his slugging percentage regressing to a significantly low number.

What is interesting is that his flyball rate was static, going from 41.4% in 2008 to 41.3% in 2009. His HR/FB rate, which did fall, did not completely disappear, going from 14.7% to 10.3%. While that’s a fall, it’s not a devastating one. He could still put up solid home run totals, even if he did not return to his ‘08 levels.

It’s also not like his strikeouts or walks were significantly off from his solid 2008 campaign:

Strikeouts: 24.5 percent in 2008 vs. 23.3 percent in 2009
Walks: 11.2 percent in 2008 vs. 13.1 percent in 2009

So, where exactly were his problems? I find it hard to simply say that the luck was the sole culprit, but that argument does have some merit. In 2008 he posted a .337 BABIP, which fell all the way to .251 in 2009. Among players with at least 300 AB, that placed him 15th worst in the league.

It is safe to assume a bounce back there, and while he likely isn’t going to return to the .337 mark, even if he is around .300 his overall numbers will be significantly better. The underlying statistics were virtually static, meaning better luck will mean significantly better results.

If his BABIP had been .300 last season (assuming no additional extra base hits), his AVG would have gone to .254 and his SLG would have gone to .417. What if he had matched the .337 mark? He would’ve been at .281 and .444, respectively. I think a fair expectation is falling somewhere in the middle, which certainly are numbers for a catcher that fantasy owners would be happy with.

It is easy for some to say that Soto had been poor prior to 2007, when he came out of no where to post 26 HR prior to his recall. However, there were some significant changes to his approach. All you have to do is look at his Triple-A flyball rates as proof:

2005 - 29.1 percent
2006 - 30.4 percent
2007 - 39.6 percent

He has maintained that flyball rate, even in his struggles, so it’s hard to point to those early years and use them as a basis for anything. He’s a changed player, and the numbers prior to that transformation should be disregarded.

We’ll probably touch on him again later in the offseason, where I’ll give an actual projection, but at this point what needs to be noted is that he is a great pick at the catching position. The power is still there, and getting him at his current ADP (148.10), would be a solid selection thanks to his potential.

He’s a player to target in all formats in my book, especially if he slips down to the 14th or 15th round, but what about you? Am I simplifying his struggles? Do you not expect him to fully bounce back in 2010?

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Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings: Top 25 Quarterbacks

Eric Stashin — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 06:34:49 -0500

Week 12 features a great matchup between Drew Brees and Tom Brady, though neither of them take home the top spot this week. Who is that honor reserved for? Let’s take a look:

Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers - at Detroit
Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts - at Houston
Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints - vs. New England
Tom Brady - New England Patriots - at New Orleans
Kurt Warner - Arizona Cardinals - at Tennessee
Philip Rivers - San Diego Chargers - vs. Kansas City
Matt Schaub - Houston Texans - vs. Indianapolis
Brett Favre - Minnesota Vikings - vs. Chicago
Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons - vs. Tampa Bay
Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers - at Baltimore
Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals - vs. Cleveland
Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys - vs. Oakland
Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia Eagles - vs. Washington
Jay Cutler - Chicago Bears - at Minnesota
Eli Manning - New York Giants - at Denver
Joe Flacco - Baltimore Ravens - vs. Pittsburgh
Kyle Orton - Denver Broncos - vs. New York Giants
Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle Seahawks - at St. Louis
David Garrard - Jacksonville Jaguars - at San Francisco
Matthew Stafford - Detroit Lions - vs. Green Bay
Jason Campbell - Washington Redskins - at Philadelphia
Josh Freeman - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - at Atlanta
Vince Young - Tennessee Titans - vs. Arizona
Alex Smith - San Francisco 49ers - vs. Jacksonville
Brady Quinn - Cleveland Browns - at Cincinnati

Thoughts:

After watching Brady Quinn torch the Detroit Lions defense, is there any quarterback you’d rather have this week than Aaron Rodgers?
Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady could materialize into a good, old-fashioned shootout. These are two of the best to begin with, and if they try to outdo each other, the numbers could be big.
The decision between Warner and Rivers comes down to the weapons, plain and simple, as both play subpar defenses. Warner has better weapons on the outside. I don’t care who the Chargers have, they don’t matchup with Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin. Of course, Warner’s health is now a question after exiting the game before halftime. Monitor the news this week if you are an owner of his.
In Week Nine, Matt Schaub threw for 311 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions against the Colts. While you don’t like the picks, the yardage is impressive so I wouldn’t bet against him in the coming week.
Does it really matter who Brett Favre’s faces at this point? He has proven week after week that he still has it and is a usable fantasy option in all formats.
Kyle Orton has two questions surrounding him. First of all, will he be healthy enough to play? Secondly, will Aaron Ross play a bigger role in the Giants defensive backfield after getting his first game action of the season in Week 11. If he plays, he’s going to be a solid QB2.
How can a QB go from being as hot as Tony Romo was to struggle the way he did against the Redskins? Against the Raiders, I’d take my chances.
Matthew Stafford, who threw five touchdown passes in Week 11, could be forced to miss the teams Thanksgiving Day game. Monitor the news over the next few days, but those in two quarterback leagues need to have a replacement in place.

What are your thoughts? Who was left off the list? Who should be higher? Who should be lower?

Other Week 12 Rankings:

Running Backs

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