Bleacher Report - Articles by Timothy O'Brien

The Designated Hitter: The American League's Unfair Advantage

Timothy O'Brien — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 17:08:35 -0400

Since its inception the American League has dominated in season inter-league play. Up through the 2008 season the American league had a record of 1536 wins and 1420 losses.

The American League has also dominated the All-Star game having not lost since 1996. However, this isn't a fair measure of which league is better because a league can easily have the best group of 25-35 stars but still be the weaker league.

A more appropriate measure is success in the playoffs. Since the American League adopted the designated hitter in 1973 they have won 20 of the 35 World Series played. In the 17 World Series' played since 1991 the American League has won 11 of them.

The American League has dominated almost every aspect of baseball success since installing the designated hitter.

The reason for this dominance is fairly simple. Half of the time when playing a National League club the American League has one extra starting quality player.

When general manager is putting his team together prior to the season he is looking to allocate the bulk of his teams funds to starting pitching and starting quality everyday offensive players. Certainly some of the teams funds must be spent on bench players and depth, as they play a significant role on any championship run.

However, they are paid far less than starting players.

In both the American League and National League General Managers will spend a large portion of team funds on pitching. Where the difference lies is on offense.

And American League club will allocate funds for nine starting quality offensive players. Whereas a National League club will spend money on only eight starting quality offensive players, probably spending slightly more their bench.

Now, when in a National League ballpark both teams will have to bat their pitchers. There is no discernable difference between AL and NL pitchers. They are all equally awful. Free agency and pitching-centric routines strip pitchers of any hitting talents they may have leaving all if not most completely useless.

One might argue that in an NL park the AL team is at a disadvantage because they might have to play their DH on defense because they can't afford to lose their offense (see David Ortiz for the Red Sox teams).

This is certainly reasonable and likely does slightly hurt some teams defensively. However, national league clubs also have defensively challenged players who they need because of offense and play them just the same. The difference is probably negligible in most situations.

Everything changes when you are in an AL park. Here, the teams are permitted to use a DH. The AL team likely has a quality DH who they are paying well to be a quality DH. He was part of their plans the entire time and he is likely a starting quality offensive player.

However, in an AL park most NL teams don't have a starting quality offensive player to slip into that DH role. Most NL teams do one of two things. Either start their best offensive bench player at DH or put their weakest defensive starter into the DH role and start a good defensive player from the bench in his place on the field.

In both situations the extra player who plays because of the DH rule (I will call him the 9th man) is a player who when signed was considered a bench player and paid as one. He is not a starting quality offensive player.

So in an AL park during inter league play or the world series the AL is starting nine starting quality offensive players whereas the NL is starting eight starting quality offensive players and one bench quality offensive player.

To illustrate my point I will compare the "9th man" of each current division leader as well as the New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago teams and the Cardinals to even the number of teams. The definition of the 9th man is the player you gain when you play in an American League ballpark.

For AL clubs the 9th man is not necessarily the DH. The 9th man for an AL club is the guy who wouldn't start if the game was in an NL ballpark. The same is true for the NL. The DH for an NL club is not necessarily the 9th man. For an NL club the 9th player is the player who would not start in an NL park.

Here is the list of likely 9th men for the American League:

David Ortiz (Red Sox)
Marcus Thames/Magglio Ordonez (Tigers)
Hank Blalock (Rangers)
Hideki Matsui (Yankees)
Jim Thome (White Sox)
Vladimir Guerrero (Angels)

American League 9th men tend to be older players who are defensively weak. They tend to be power guys with large OPS. They tend to play relatively important roles in the offensive lineup, though aren't one of the major cogs...otherwise the teams would find a place in the lineup for them.

Here is the list of 9th men for the National League:

Matt Stairs/John Mayberry (Phillies)
Craig Counsell (Brewers)
Nick Stavinoha/Ryan Ludwich/Chris Duncan(Cardinals)
Mark Loretta (Dodgers)
Jeremy Reed/Fernando Martinez(Mets)
Milton Bradley/Micah Hoffpauir(Cubs)

National League 9th men tend to be either professional pinch hitters, platoon players or defensive replacements. They are overwhelmingly not every day players. Most NL clubs don't have a single set 9th man, evidencing a lack of a quality player to fill that role.

It is clear from the list above (purposefully made up of playoff contenders and big money teams) that when in an American League park the AL team has a significant offensive advantage.

Perhaps one could argue it evens out because in the National league parks the AL clubs lose these players. While that is certainly true when you compare the NL park lineups to their usual lineups it does not mean they don't have an overall advantage.

Few of these players are the major cog in their teams lineup. If they were the team would find a place for them in an NL park (see Ortiz as 1B the past few years).

One could also argue in NL parks AL clubs lose big on defense because some are forced to play a DH in the field. However, NL clubs also have weak defensive players who play every day. In the NL you have to sacrifice defense for offense because the NL doesn't have the DH to hide a weak defensive player (see Gary Sheffield/Adam Dunn/Manny Ramirez).

Because of this I am willing to say the loss of a relatively strong player in an NL park, mitigated by the fact that there are 8 other starting quality offensive players, is less effectual than the gain made by an AL club when they start their 9th man against an NL 9th man, mitigated by the gain in defense.

In summation, the DH and the role it plays on AL clubs combined with how the AL general managers stock their club with offensive players based on that rule give American League clubs a distinct advantage in both inter-league play and the World Series when games are played in an American League Ballpark.

This advantage outweighs any advantage National League clubs attain defensively when games are played in a National League club.

To create an even playing field baseball should either install the DH in both leagues or remove the DH from both leagues.

I am a baseball purist to a certain extent. I believe in the old sandlot rule that you don't get to hit unless you play the field. I would remove the DH entirely. I know full well the MLBPA will never less this happen, so it is likely to go the other way if anything ever change...unfortunately.

David Wright Is a Leader, Jerry Manuel Deserves Credit

Timothy O'Brien — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 19:53:57 -0400

Baseball writers and Met fans in particular are quick to blame Jerry Manuel when things go wrong. Many are down on Manuel for the way the Mets have played this season, despite the depleted roster he works with every day.

Some of that criticism is warranted. A consistent lineup would be nice, Ryan Church playing every day would likely improve his numbers, and perhaps a rookie righty shouldn't be facing Chase Utley.

However, as I've written before, he deserves far more credit than he's receiving. The team is over-achieving. Their active roster is upsettingly similar to that of the Washington Nationals.

Both have a solid Ace who has, at times, struggled, two strong hitters in their lineup, and shaky defense at several positions. The Mets only advantage lies in the bullpen.

The resemblance to the lowly Nats is due to injury. Two core, every day players (Reyes, Delgado), two starting pitchers (Maine, Perez), and two late inning relievers (Wagner, Putz) are all on the DL.

Not only are these players some of the more talented Mets, but they also represent the veteran leadership of the club, namely Wagner and Delgado.

With both out for extended periods of time this left a leadership vacuum in the Mets clubhouse, with only veteran role players and young talent remaining to fill the void.

When Carlos Delgado went down with a hip injury, Jerry Manuel challenged Mets players to step up and act as leaders, specifically naming David Wright.

Players like Alex Cora and Gary Sheffield are veterans who command a certain level of respect. However, as Keith Hernandez mentioned last night, it is easier for a player who is performing at a very high level to step into that leadership role and be vocal to teammates.

Last night David Wright took another step into that leadership position.

After the sixth inning, during which Mike Pelfrey gave up two-run home run to Nick Markakis before being removed, an exuberant David Wright approached Pelfrey in the dugout and told him he could and should do better.

Certainly, credit should and does go to David Wright for stepping up. He is a veteran now and needs to take a leadership position if this team is to win. However, Jerry Manuel deserves some of those kudos for not only paving the way, but giving Wright the push he needed to take on this role.

In recent weeks Wright has been far more vocal than he's ever been. He visits the mound every time a coach makes a visit. He often makes his own visits, much like Hernandez, to the mound to calm down or pump up his pitcher. It's what the organization has been expecting from Wright.

What should not be forgotten is the role Jerry Manuel played in getting Wright to step up. Manuel called out Wright when Delgado went down, and David stepped up.

With all the negativity surrounding Manuel and the New York Mets this season, we can't take this one away from Jerry Manuel.

Luis Castillo Is a Man

Timothy O'Brien — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 20:18:12 -0400

Earlier this week, Mets manager Jerry Manuel walked out mound to get Johan Santana. Johan did not want to come out of the game. He's a competitor and he was beating the Phillies. I understand.

We learned after the game what he was saying to Manuel on the mound. Johan has a saying, "I'm a man, I'm a man."

I don't know what Johan means by this; I'm sure it has meaning to him.

What I do know, is Luis Castillo is a man, and I'm proud to have him on my team.

I fully admit in the hours immediately following that dropped pop-up I was demanding Castillo's head.

My initial reaction equated the symbolism of his dropped ball against the Yankees with Tom Glavine's futility at the end of the 2007 season. I felt then that Glavine would never be forgiven and needed to go, and he went.

Over the past 21 hours or so Luis Castillo has won me over, and I would hope other Mets fans as well.

He could have left without speaking to the media last night and the newspapermen would likely have understood. He stood there like a man, a broken and dispirited man, and answered questions.

You could see the anguish in his eyes and hear the isolation in his voice.

He made no excuses. There was no lights in his eyes, no wind he couldn't overcome. He said, "I need to catch that. I feel bad. It was a routine fly ball, and I made a mistake. I feel so bad. I have to make that play".

He arrived at the ball park today ready to speak with the media. Mets PR Director Jay Horowitz tried to hide Castillo from them, but Luis insisted that he speak with them.

He expressed regret. He also received a great deal of support from around the league and his teammates.

Today, he went out, played solid defense, even almost making a sparking play on a ground ball deep in the hole in between first and second, and got two hits. He played well.

After the game, he once again spoke with both Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and sat down with the local beat writers.

He never once hid from the spotlight or the blame.

In the off-season, I was leading the charge to sign Orlando Hudson. I do not take that back. Orlando Hudson is a more productive offensive and defensive player than Luis Castillo.

However, Castillo is our second baseman, and he's a good one. He is a winner and I am glad he's on my team.

Luis Castillo stood up and took his punches; like a man. For this he deserves our forgiveness and our respect.

Let's Debate! Another 10 Best Sports Movies of All-Time Slideshow

Timothy O'Brien — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:18:33 -0400

I'm sure you've all read one of these before, but I haven't written one, so I'm throwin' my hat in. Here is what I think are the ten best sports movies of all time. Don't worry, Blue Chips isn't one of them. I just find the thought of Shaq acting (Shaqting?) amusing. I'm sure you will all differ in opinion. Tell me what you think in comments.

Begin Slideshow

New Yankee Stadium's Statistical Effect: Are The Yankees' Stats Inflated?

Timothy O'Brien — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 20:20:00 -0400

(This article is 6 pages of length. There is a lot of statistical data and numbers. If you are interested only in the results and analysis of those results, I would read only the last two pages)

A lot of ink has been spilled discussing the power numbers being put up at the New Yankee stadium. The most criticism is aimed at the right field fence which is considered by many to be far too short.

The Yankees list the dimensions the new park as identical to those of the old park. This, however, is the result of strategic measuring. The distances are taken at certain points in the park which are identical.

In fact, the new ball park is smaller overall. Here, you can view the two park's dimensions superimposed on each other. These dimensions were taken using high resolution satellite photos.

Right field is the same in the corner. However, in the old park, right field would just be a few feet from the foul line and keep on an outward trajectory. In the new park, the fence juts out less than the old park and then continues straight across, without getting any deeper. There is an electronic scoreboard in the right field fence, preventing much trajectory change.

The fence is also slightly shallower in a small section of left field.

Baseball commentators have blamed the boom in home runs at the New Yankee Stadium on it's dimensions. Not only did I want to find out if that was true, but I also wanted to see how the individual Yankees' stats were affected by the new ball park. This paper analyzes how the new stadium has effected Yankee offensive output.

Procedure:

This section will explain how I did the math. It will explain how I figured out what Yankee players are on pace for, and how I figured out what the difference between their currents year's output versus their past output. If you trust I did the math correctly, and just want to get to the meat of the stats, feel free to skip this section.

If you want to see how I did it, please read on. I will label the next section when it begins.

To measure how the Yankees were statistically affected by the New Yankee Stadium, I used the 162 game averages of the Yankee players over their entire career measured against what they are on pace for this year if they were to play 162 games.

It's simple. I am comparing what these Yankee players would do, if they did what they've done so far this season for a complete set of 162 games, to what they have done on average in 162 games in the past.

I used Baseball-reference to retrieve 162 game averages as well as 2009 season statistics.

Here is a simple example of how I figured out how a player was affected by the new stadium.

Suppose I have an average of 20 home runs per 162 games. Also suppose every 162 games, I average 600 at bats.

Now, in this example, I have 200 at bats so far in the 2009 season and in those at bats I have 10 home runs.

First, I will figure out, based on how many more at bats I usually have in a 162 game season, how many home runs I am on pace for in the 2009 season if I play 162 games.

Here, as mentioned earlier, I average 600 at bats in a 162 game season. I will take 600 and divide it by 200 (the amount of at bats I have so far in 2009 season), which comes out to three. I will call this number the multiplier.

To figure out how many home runs I an on pace for in 2009 if I play 162 games, I will multiply the "multiplier" by the amount of home runs I have so far. In this case, I would use three multiplied by 10 (the amount of HR I have so far).That comes out to 30. So, If I were to play a 162 game season at the pace I am on in the current season, I would hit 30 home runs.

To figure out the increase over my average for this year, I simply figure out the percent increase of my current rate over my average output. I normally hit 20 home runs in a 162 game season. Now I am on pace for 30 home runs, which marks a 50 percent increase in home run output this year.

For the purposes of this analysis, I used only players who have over 100 plate appearances this season. I also excluded players who don't have a significant enough history to measure their past averages.

This excluded players like Xavier Nady and Jose Molina because they didn't have enough plate appearances this season. It also excluded Brett Gardner, because while he has enough at bats this season, he has no history to measure against. This left me with nine players.

I also only used runs scored, home runs, and runs batted in as statistical measures.

A note on 162 game averages: They will be inflated numbers, and they are. They are not a player's average season. As most player do miss games, they are their stats over 162 game periods.

Here is baseball-references definition of 162 game averages. "This is an attempt to condense each batter's career into a single season's worth of stats. With batters this is easy. Just take their career games played and divide by 162 and then divide their career totals by that factor."

Individual Players Statistical Differences

Jorge Posada:

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

100 at bats
14 runs scored
8 home runs
26 RBI

Career 162 game averages

545 at bats
83 runs scored
25 home runs
97 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

76 runs scored
44 HR
141 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

Eight percent decrease in runs scored
76 percent increase in home runs
45 percent increase in RBI

Mark Teixeira

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

194 at bats
37 runs scored
16 home runs
47 RBI

Career 162 game averages

613 at bats
102 runs scored
37 home runs
123 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

117 runs scored
50 HR
148 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

15 percent increase in runs scored
35 percent increase in home runs
20 percent increase in RBI

Robinson Cano

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

223 at bats
38 runs scored
9 home runs
32 RBI

Career 162 game averages

631 at bats
88 runs scored
18 home runs
88 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

108 runs scored
26 HR
91 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

23 percent increase in runs scored
44 percent increase in home runs
Three percent increase in RBI

Derek Jeter

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

217 at bats
33 runs scored
7 home runs
25 RBI

Career 162 game averages

656 at bats
119 runs scored
17 home runs
82 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

100 runs scored
21 HR
76 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

16 percent decrease in runs scored
24 percent increase in home runs
Seven percent decrease in RBI

Alex Rodriguez

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

92 at bats
13 runs scored
7 home runs
22 RBI

Career 162 game averages

623 at bats
127 runs scored
44 home runs
128 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

88 runs scored
47 HR
148 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

31 percent decrease in runs scored
7 percent increase in home runs
16 percent increase in RBI

Johnny Damon

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

202 at bats
43 runs scored
11 home runs
33 RBI

Career 162 game averages

641 at bats
113 runs scored
15 home runs
75 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

136 runs scored
35 HR
105 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

20 percent increase in runs scored
33 percent increase in home runs
40 percent increase in RBI

Nick Swisher

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

167 at bats
33 runs scored
10 home runs
32 RBI

Career 162 game averages

557 at bats
94 runs scored
28 home runs
87 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

110 runs scored
33 HR
107 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

17 percent increase in runs scored
18 percent increase in home runs
23 percent increase in RBI

Hideki Matsui

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

164 at bats
18 runs scored
8 home runs
22 RBI

Career 162 game averages

602 at bats
97 runs scored
24 home runs
104 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

66 runs scored
29 HR
81 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

32 percent decrease in runs scored
21 percent increase in home runs
22 percent decrease in RBI

Melky Cabrera

2009 Season Stats as of June, 5, 2009

148 at bats
22 runs scored
6 home runs
22 RBI

Career 162 game averages

555 at bats
72 runs scored
10 home runs
64 RBI

On pace for in 2009 if 162 games played at this pace

83 runs scored
23 HR
83 RBI's

Percent change comparing 2009 pace against average 162 game pace

15 percent increase in runs scored
130 percent increase in home runs
30 percent increase in RBI

Team/Side of the Plate Changes

After calculating each individual players statistical changes, I then wanted to see how the overall team has been affected. To do this, I added up the percent changes and divided it by the total number of players (in this case nine players). This gave me the average change in output per player. I did this for runs, home runs and RBI's.

These nine Yankee average change in runs scored was an increase of .33 percent (note, it's not 33 percent, but .33 percent).

These nine Yankees average change in home runs was an increase of 43 percent. I noticed that Melky Cabrera alone had an increase of 130 percent, seemingly a statistical outlier. Without Caberera, the other eight Yankees averaged an increase of 32 percent in home runs.

These nine Yankees had their average change in RBI totals increased by 16 percent.

In addition to the overall team effects, I wanted to see how the new stadium affected left handed hitters versus how it affected right handed hitters. Keep in mind, out of these nine, only two players were considered right handed hitters (Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez). All switch hitters were considered left handed hitters as that is where they get a vast majority of their at bats as well as their statistics.

Left-Handed Hitters

The seven left-handed Yankees considered average a 7 percent increase in runs scored.

The seven left-handed Yankees considered average a 51 percent increase in home runs. Without Melky Cabrera, the remaining six left-handed hitters average a 38 percent increase in home runs.

The seven left-handed Yankees considered average a 16 percent increase in RBI.

Right-Handed Hitters

The two right-handed Yankees considered average a 15 percent decrease (note, it's a decrease) in runs scored.

The two right-handed Yankees considered average a 16 percent increase in home runs.

The two right-handed Yankees considered average a 4.5 percent increase in RBI.

Analysis

As it turns out, offensive numbers overall have increased significantly in the New Yankee Stadium. Runs, home runs, and RBI are all up by at least 16 percent, with home runs seeing the most significant change with an increase of 43 percent.

Certainly there are other factors to consider in this analysis, with one of the largest increases is seen in the stats of Melky Cabrera. He also happens to be a young player who is likely improving at this point in his career. Maturation certainly played a role in Cabrera's improved numbers. However, his surge cannot be ignored for purposes of this analysis.

As for the effects of the short right-field porch, lefties have a distinct advantage in the new park as compared to the old one. Left-handed hitters saw an increase in all three statistical categories. Right-handed hitters saw an increase in home runs and RBI, but a decrease in runs scored.

Moreover, where left-handed and right-handed hitters shared an increase in home runs and RBI, left-handed hitters increased at a significantly greater rate than did right-handed hitters.

As the numers increased as a team, there are other factors at work when comparing righties to lefties.

For one, I only used two right handed hitters in this analysis. A small sample size is tough to judge. However, they also happen to be the players in the analysis with the longest history to measure against.

Additionally, Derek Jeter is an older player who's statistics are less likely to increase and could possibly be declining. Alex Rodriguez on the other hand might be so good and have such a strong statistical history that it would be difficult to increase his output with a venue change.

With all that said, the number don't lie. The Yankees offensive numbers, especially the power numbers, have increased in large percentages this season when compared to the past.

Certainly one could argue this might be due to a maturation of young players, or a strong lineup finally put together. One could also argue that perhaps everything is coming together at one time.

What makes me believe it is due to the stadium is how significant the difference between left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters is. Left-handed hitters increased home runs at a 51 percent rate per player, righties at a 16 percent clip. Left-handed hitters increased RBI's by 20 percent per player, righties at a 5 percent clip. Left-handed hitters increased runs scored by a rate of 7 percent per player, while righties actually decreased at a 15 percent rate.

This clearly indicates that the short right-field porch is having a very significant impact on player output. This in turn, indicates to me that a significant increase in overall production is not simply the result of factors mentioned earlier, but rather the effect of a smaller ballpark.

This analysis in no way means to state the Yankees have any unfair advantage at all. Both teams still have to play each game in the same park, so the short right field advantages Rays and Red Sox hitters as much as it does Yankee hitters.

What it should tell you is individual Yankee offensive statistics are inflated by the new ballpark. This could in fact be a Yankee disadvantage as they will have to pay higher prices for reluctant pitchers in the future (see Mike Hampton's and Denny Neagle's contracts with Colorado).

Teams around the major leagues need to keep the New Yankee Stadium factor in mind when they are dealing with ex-Yankees in the offseason. When an ex-Yankee players agent is trying to ask for money that a player with comparable stats is receiving, General Managers need to keep where those players obtained those numbers in mind.

New York Mets: A Season Defined

Timothy O'Brien — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:36:50 -0400

The next month will decide whether the Mets remain competitive for the 2009 baseball season.

Over the weekend the Mets will take on the last place, Nationals in a three game set. Viewing the upcoming schedule, it would be in their best interest to sweep.

Starting Tuesday, they have a set of 32 games, which include series against the Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, and Dodgers. Those teams are a combined fifty eight games over .500.

The Mets have enjoyed the benefit of a very weak schedule the last two weeks during what they thought was going to be the worst part of their injury woes.

That was all before Jose Reyes found a tear in his right hamstring tendon, possibly sidelining him for six to eight weeks (Update: Mike Francesa of WFAN in NYC believes the Mets expect Reyes back in two to three weeks), likely through the all-star break, with no firm timetable being set. It was also before J.J. Putz found out he broke off a bone spur and opted for elbow surgery that will keep him out for up to ten to twelve weeks.

There is some good news, though.

Carlos Beltran is not only feeling better, but he continues hitting well. Despite a sluggish past week David Wright remains a constant source of daily offense. Johan is still the best pitcher in the National League. Francisco Rodriguez is still a top closer. Bobby Parnell remains dominant and Sean Green's sinker in now, well, sinking.

Despite losing Putz, the bullpen is in good shape. Bobby Parnell will step in nicely to replace Putz. Sean Green has done enough to regain trust and should be given the seventh inning. We still have Stokes and Feliciano to face right and left handed batters, respectively. Takahashi has been struggling against lefties, but can still be used in long relief.

However, if the Mets are to survive the next month they will need a strong performance from the starting rotation. Johan will be great, just as he always is. It's the rest of the group that needs to step up.

Pelfrey had been great before yesterday's debacle against the Pirates, where he took full responsibility for the loss and should move on. He needs to continue improving. Livan Hernandez and John Maine have been consistently good for the past few weeks. It is imperative they keep this up.

The fifth spot is up for grabs. Tim Redding has been awful with a nine plus era. This spot needs to be addressed. Redding will get another opportunity to pitch. If he falters again he needs to be replaced.

Nelson Figueroa can be called up, though it's not likely he can be relied upon long term. Jonathan Niese was given an opportunity and failed. He's not ready yet.

I would expect the Mets to take a chance on Tom Glavine. It can't hurt. He is a professional pitcher who would likely sign for the league minimum. There is not much to lose in giving him an opportunity.

I have held off on calling for GM Omar Minaya to make a move so far. The injury news of the last two days has changed that. We need another bat and the most appropriate place is in left field

The Mets should target Matt Holliday of the Oakland Athletics. They are better off doing it now, while Matt's numbers aren't that high. At the trading deadline he's likely to bring a higher price tag and interest from more ball clubs.

No matter what Minaya does, whoever is on the field for the Mets will have to perform in the coming weeks. All they have to do is survive. If they can remain within six or seven games of the Phillies over the next month I would consider that a success.

Hopefully, in two months they will have Delgado and Reyes back. A few weeks after that they will retain a healthy Putz. The Putz they were expecting. Perhaps a few weeks after that they could get the forgotten Billy Wagner back.

In the interim they have to continue doing what they have been doing all year: weather the storm, until they get healthy.

Only now they will be doing it against the Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers instead of the Nationals, Pirates, and Marlins. A tall task for a club that's a few men short.

Tom Glavine Released by Braves

Timothy O'Brien — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 18:06:25 -0400

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports is reporting that the Atlanta Braves have released Tom Glavine.

The Braves reportedly told Glavine the cause was his lack of velocity. According to Rosenthal's report "Glavine was throwing only 76-78 miles per hour in spring training and in recent starts had increased that to 83-86 miles per hour."

Glavine stated that he wishes to continue pitching.

Where the veteran left hand might catch on remains open to speculation. One could speculate teams like the White Sox, Astros, or even his old team the Mets might be interested.

Glavine has not pitched for the Braves in 2009. He is currently recovering from elbow and shoulder surgeries.

New York Mets: A Positive Spin

Timothy O'Brien — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 17:31:37 -0400

Right now, Mets fans all over the Tri-State area are panicking. They are worried about the health of the team, both in the training room and in the standings.

I am here to tell you to have faith.

There is no team as decimated by injuries as the snake-bitten Mets.

The Mets have been without Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez, Ryan Church, and Carlos Delgado for extended periods of time. While those players were out, the Mets dealt with John Maine and Carlos Beltran having gastrointestinal viruses that forced them to miss time. All the while, J.J. Putz is trying to pitch with a bone spur in his elbow, Gary Sheffield is fighting through a clearly debilitating hamstring injury, and both of Reyes' backups, Alex Cora and Ramon Martinez, have been injured.

Making matters increasingly difficult is the organizational health. As Matt Cerrone points out, "Triple-A infielder Javier Valentin injured his shoulder last night in Buffalo, while Dillon Gee, Argenis Reyes, Carlos Muniz and Bobby Kielty remain on the [Minor League] disabled list".

Despite all the injuries, all the uncertainty and all the chaos, the Mets remain only three games back of the first-place Phillies.

They have won seven of their last 11, and 18 of 28, while putting a below sub-par product on the field. This is something to be proud of rather than worry over.

Yes, they lost the last two to the Pirates, but what makes you think the team on the field is more talented than the Pirates?

This team took two out of three from the Red Sox in a series that it had no business winning a single game. Why don't we take those two surprising Mets victories and weigh them against the last two unsurprising losses? The Mets are faring far better than they should.

I give most of the credit to the wonderful job done by Jerry Manuel, who I have suggested is the leading candidate for NL Manager of the Year thus far. He has taken a second-rate club and kept them afloat during an increasingly tough stretch.

Many want to blame GM Omar Minaya for the state of the team. The fact remains he has assembled a team that includes arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball (Santana), arguably the best closer in baseball (Rodriguez), and arguably the best center fielder in baseball (Beltran).

It is not his fault when players get injured. It also doesn't help that the organization at all levels can't stay healthy. They could trade, and they likely will, but it's not necessary right now.

My main point is this: Yes, at the start of the season if you had said this team would be three games back and five games over .500 on June 3, I would have been disappointed. However, with this unreal run of unfortunate injuries and illness, it is something to be celebrated.

There is hope. Injuries heal. Reyes and Church will be back this week. Cora and Beltran come back tonight. John Maine is feeling better. Ramon Martinez is no longer necessary. Sheffield can return to his proper role and rest his hamstring. Bobby Parnell is performing wonderfully and should be able to take over the eighth inning while Putz gets right—either in his mechanics or his elbow. And in a couple of months, Carlos Delgado will be back just in time for the stretch run.

They also have five games against the Pirates and the Nationals in between now and their upcoming series with the Phillies.

When healthy, this team is a force. The Mets have more roster talent than 99 percent of the league. They have stars at almost every position.

The Shea Faithful need to remain patient. The Mets are just fine.

Update: 5:53 pm EST

Jose Reyes has suffered a set back in an extended spring training game and will fly to New York to be re-evaluated. Jerry Manuel said to WFAN if all goes as planned, he should return next Tuesday.

MLB: Ten Unknown Top Performers in 2009

Timothy O'Brien — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:40:19 -0400

We all know about how Albert Pujols is doing, how many wins Zach Greinke has, and how many stolen bases Carl Crawford is getting. However, there are players having great seasons who we don't hear much about. Whether they are west coast players or small market clubs, they don't get the spotlight they deserve. Well, this is for them.

Begin Slideshow

New York Mets Television Network Member May Have Swine Flu

Timothy O'Brien — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:42:33 -0400

Bart Hubbach of the New York Post is reporting (via twitter) that an unspecified member of the SportsNet New York (SNY) television network who travels with the New York Mets may have the swine flu.

Recently, Mets players, including Carlos Beltran and John Maine, have missed time or exited games because of stomach problems. Carlos Beltran will be out of the lineup tonight with stomach problems.

Hubbach reports the Mets say the two players are not showing symptoms of swine flu. They have also isolated the person, to avoid contact with team members.

Carols Beltran Out Again: Is It Really His Stomach?

Timothy O'Brien — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:32:54 -0400

For the third consecutive game, Carlos Beltran will be out of the Mets line-up with a stomach virus. This comes on the heels of Beltran missing time last week because of a sore knee.

Now, John Maine did leave his start on Sunday with a stomach problem lending credence to the idea that there is a bug going around the Mets clubhouse. However, how many of you have missed three days of work because of a stomach bug?

Also, is it coincidence that he caught this severe stomach bug mere days after sitting out because of a sore knee and during a two week stand against the likes of the Marlins, Pirates, and Nationals?

This leads to one question. Is it his stomach keeping him out, or are they hiding the truth, that his knee is keeping him out? Perhaps they don't want the fans to panic, with all the injuries they already have.

Beltran is the Mets best player and announcing he was hurt while Delgado, Church, Reyes, and Schneider are on the DL would likely lead to a Mets nation revolt. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but this is interesting.

10 MLB Predictions For the Rest of 2009

Timothy O'Brien — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:14:59 -0400

We are about one third of the way through the 2009 Major League Baseball Season and things are beginning to take shape. We are starting to see what teams are for real, and which ones should already be thinking about 2010. I say this is as good a time as any to start making some predictions for the end of the current season. Here are 10 predictions for the rest of the 2009 season.

Begin Slideshow

Jerry Manuel, NL Coach Of The Year? (So Far)

Timothy O'Brien — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:52:12 -0400

Certainly, when discussing the leaders for the 2009 NL Coach of the Year there are a few names that might seem more obvious than Jerry Manuel of the second place (28-22) New York Mets.

Joe Torre is currently leading the Los Angeles Dodgers to what is by far the best record in baseball (35-18), and he's doing it after losing his highest paid and best hitter in Manny Ramirez.

Ken Macha is leading the Brewers (30-21) at the top of the most competitive division in the National League. He is doing this after losing top pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets in the off-season.

A case could even be made for both Bruce Bochy in San Francisco and Bud Black in San Diego for leading teams with a severe lack of overall talent to respectable .500 records.

However, if you judge a manager by how he deals with team turmoil and unforeseen circumstances, Jerry Manuel has to be at the top of the list. For instance, here is the opening day starting lineup for the Mets (excluding the pitcher).

1. Jose Reyes, SS
2. Daniel Murphy, LF
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Carlos Delgado, 1B
5. Carlos Beltran, CF
6. Ryan Church, RF
7. Brian Schneider, C
8. Luis Castillo, 2B

Now, here is the lineup for the Mets this past Sunday against the division rival Marlins.

1. Angel Pagan, CF
2. Luis Castillo, 2B
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Gary Sheffield, LF
5. Daniel Murphy, 1B
6. Fernando Martinez, RF
7. Omir Santos, C
8. Wilson Valdez, SS

Only three players appear in both. Only four of the players in the second lineup were on the team on opening day. Jerry Manuel has gone significant time without Carlos Delgado, Brian Schneider, Jose Reyes, Jose's backup Alex Cora, and Ryan Church.

Carlos Beltran has been dealing with a sore knee and stomach virus for the past two weeks, leading him to miss a few games at the same time the others were hurt. J.J. Putz has been pitching through a bone spur in his elbow leading to a lack of control and a mediocre splitter.

Through all of this, the Mets remain at the top of the NL East along side the Philadelphia Phillies, flip flopping between first and second place. In the past few weeks, while the Mets are putting a Triple-A squad on the field, with injuries at their peak, the Mets have won 7 of 10 and 18 of 27.

Certainly they have been helped recently with series against the lowly Marlins, Nats, and Pirates. However, they did just finish a West Coast swing against the Dodgers and Giants and returned east only to play the Red Sox.

It also helps to have an ace like Johan Santana to fall back on. However, discounting Tim Redding, the entire pitching staff has been pitching well. Moreover, perhaps the area of the team where the coach is most involved is the bullpen. The Mets bullpen leads the league (second in baseball to only the Red Sox) with a 3.14 ERA.

Indeed, the rest of the season has yet to be seen. We are only about a third of the way into the season. Certainly a lot can happen in the next four months that will render this conversation pointless.

However, it is worth pointing out at this point the job Jerry Manuel is doing leading the Buffalo...uh I mean New York Mets. He has made the most of what is likely the least.