Bleacher Report - Articles by Brian Packey

Detroit Tigers 2009 Preview: Can This Year's Team Meet Last Year's Expectations?

Brian Packey — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 14:33:47 -0400

This is an article I wrote for RBI Magazine, which can be found here.

Key Additions

SS Adam Everett, C Gerald Laird, RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Brandon Lyon, C Matt Treanor, RHP Juan Rincon

Key Subtractions

OF Matt Joyce, LHP Kenny Rogers, SS Edgar Renteria, RP Kyle Farnsworth, CL Todd Jones

A Look at the Lineup

CF Curtis Granderson

Curtis has spent the majority of Spring Training coming off the bench for team USA in the World Baseball Classic. While he may not be getting as many at-bats as he would be if he were with the Tigers in Lakeland, he’ll still be the Opening Day leadoff hitter for the Tigs.

Granderson is a mainstay in center field; expect him to have similar numbers to the last couple years.

2B Placido Polanco

Placido has been the No. 2 hitter for the Tigers since he came over in a trade from Philadelphia in 2006. He has hit above .300 in four out of the last six years—and those other two years weren’t too shabby (.295 and .298). He’ll be the everyday second baseman.

RF Magglio Ordonez

Magglio is one of the four Tigers players that have been playing for team Venezuela in the WBC. Maggs had a bit of a drop-off last year from his stellar 2007 season, but that was to be expected.

He still hit a more than respectable .317/21/103. I’d expect similar numbers from him this year. He’ll be the everyday right fielder barring injury or the occasional day off.

1B Miguel Cabrera

Miguel is another Tigers player on team Venezuela in the WBC. Miguel is probably one of the most prominent hitters in baseball, and I don’t think he gets all that much attention with the likes of A-Rod, Manny, Hanley, etc. He will be 26 years old in April and is coming off a career year in HR and RBI.

His batting average took a hit due to a musty start to last season, but he should rebound in that category this season. I don’t expect this true hitter to produce any less than he has so far in his young career.

LF Carlos Guillen

Guillen will make the switch from 3B to LF this season with hopes to remain a bit healthier than he did last year. Nagging back and leg injuries forced him to miss his fair share of games, and hopefully this position change will make him more durable.

That being said, he’s still a very productive hitter and will probably put up numbers close to what he had in 2007 if he stays healthy (.296/21/102).

DH Gary Sheffield

Sheffield came into Spring Training feeling healthier than he has in years. He’s missed 200 games over the past three seasons due to a lingering shoulder injury that heavily impacted his swing and his production.

With his shoulder finally healthy again, he should start to produce like he did late in the 2007 season. He is just one home run shy of 500, and it’d be safe to guess he’ll shatter that this season.

Peter Gammons said if Sheffield remains healthy, he could be this season’s Comeback Player of the Year. All signs point to him being healthy.

C Gerald Laird

Laird was acquired in a trade with Texas this offseason. He will be the everyday catcher, taking over for Brandon Inge, who is moving back to 3B. Laird has a little pop in his bat, but the Tigers will rely on his defensive capabilities more than anything else. In 2008, he cut down runners at nearly a 40 percent clip.

If he hits anything like he did for Texas in 2008, it would be considered gratuitous in the eyes of the Tigers.

Matt Treanor was signed to give Laird a breather every now and then.

3B Brandon Inge

As mentioned before, Inge will be moving back to 3B to assume those duties this season. After attributing his struggles at the plate to not knowing when he would be playing and catching most of last season, he no longer has a valid excuse not to produce at a higher level.

He will be in the lineup every day this season—unless he continues to hit just a shade over the Mendoza line like he did last year.

The Tigers would like to see him get back to his 2005 and 2006 production level, which still isn’t much. He’s just a career .237 hitter, and hopefully flashing the leather at third will take the focus off his inevitably low batting average (although he is hitting .294 in spring training through March 20).

SS Adam Everett

Everett is another offseason acquisition for the Tigers to help shore up the holes on defense. He is not known for his stick, but is known for his glove. He will certainly save the Tigers some runs on defense but won’t produce much at the dish.

This career .246 hitter has a career .976 fielding percentage, which puts him up there as one of the game’s best defensive shortstops.

He’s not the generally preferred speed guy in the nine hole, although he did have 21 steals in 2005, but he generally puts the ball in play. The Tigers are not expecting much from him at the plate; just that he continues to be the vacuum he’s been his entire career at shortstop.

The only concern with him is that he’s only played 114 games in the past two years.

A look at the pitching

1. Justin Verlander
2. Jeremy Bonderman
3. Armando Galarraga
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Nate Robertson, Zach Miner, Dontrelle Willis, or Rick Porcello

The biggest question mark looms over the No. 5 spot. Who will it be? Your guess is probably about as good as anyone’s at this point. The job has been Nate Robertson’s for the past few years, and with his monster contract that he just signed, he probably had the best shot to win it this spring.

However, he has pitched poorly for the most part and has left the door wide open for others to step right in.

Willis also has a big contract the Tigers do not want to just squander, but they are not going to put him out there if he can’t find the strike zone. Then there is the inexperienced 20-year-old Rick Porcello and typically long relief man, Zach Miner.

Porcello has been very efficient this spring, but the word around camp is that the Tigers don’t want to rush this golden arm who hasn’t thrown an inning yet above A ball. Miner has been efficient in his brief stints as a starter in years past, but has not helped his cause this spring with some miserable outings.

If I were to guess based on pure talent alone, I’d say Porcello will be the guy to take the ball on the fifth day of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone else be handed the job until Porcello is deemed ready.

The other big question mark in camp has been the health of Jeremy Bonderman. He is coming off season-ending shoulder surgery and just threw his first two innings of the spring today against Atlanta because he had been feeling discomfort in the same shoulder.

If he can’t be ready by the start of the season, one of the five spot candidates will get an extra chance to win a spot.

Bullpen

Key relievers: Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, Bobby Seay, Joel Zumaya, and Ryan Perry

There is really only one thing that is for sure with the Detroit Tigers pitching: Their bullpen is in a lot better shape than it was this time last season. This year, they are going to have tough decisions to make with a few guys as to whether they even make the team. Last year, they didn’t have enough quality guys to decide between.

Surprisingly, one of those guys is Joel Zumaya. He has not thrown since March 2, and there continue to be question marks surrounding the overall health of his shoulder. If he’s not going to be able to pitch by Opening Day, he will not break camp with the Tigers.

The Tigers have seen promising things from Juan Rincon, Casey Fien, and even Scott Williamson lately, all of whom could break camp as part of the ‘pen. Ryan Perry is also making a very strong bid to fill the shoes of Joel Zumaya a la 2006 style. He could wind up being the wild card of this Tigers bullpen.

The other major question is who will do the closing with Todd Jones retiring at the end of last season. Right now, it looks as if it will be newly acquired RHP Brandon Lyon’s job with Rodney being the main setup guy, as long as Zumaya continues to have shoulder problems.

Lyon did a more than serviceable job as the closer for Arizona before tanking in the second half last year. Hopefully for the Tigers' sake, he can regain that first half swagger and hold on to it throughout the 2009 campaign. He is having a very promising spring thus far.

Outlook

The grand theme for the Tigers is their health. They were where they were in 2008 because they were generally never healthy. Granderson missed the first month, Magglio went on the DL at one point, Bonderman had a season-ending injury, Guillen missed nearly 50 games, and Sheffield and Zumaya were never really healthy.

Health is generally the main key for most teams, but the Tigers' success probably hinges on that more than any other team.

For the most part, they appear a lot healthier than they were last year, so they should definitely improve upon last year’s finish. Although they might not reach last season’s preseason hype, they are virtually the same team that was the preseason favorite to win the World Series by so many expert analysts.

I think if Zumaya and Bonderman are healthy and have bounce back seasons, those 2008 predictions are not unreasonable for 2009.

Prediction

Unfortunately, I don’t trust Bonderman and Zumaya’s health enough right now to predict them to win the World Series. However, they do improve significantly with the added defense and arms to the staff. Expect the Tigers to be in the hunt for most of this season but fall short in the end.

84-78 (second place in the AL Central)

Create Your Own Dynasty: Dynasty Athlete Representations

Brian Packey — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:13:59 -0500

Dynasty Athlete Representation is a full-service sports and talent agency that prides itself on promoting a family atmosphere and a strong sense of innovation.

Check out their new promo video and please leave any feedback or constructive criticism you may have.

For more information about Dynasty, please visit DynastyReps.com.

What Will Come of the Other 103 Names?

Brian Packey — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 23:23:27 -0500

In the past few days, much has been said about the A-Rod steroid drama. First came the news that he tested positive in 2003, followed by him admitting, last evening on ESPN, that he is guilty of taking banned substances for the three years he was in Texas. Whether you believe his admission or not, that is an entirely different story—one that I could analyze and write about for days.

What really troubled me was the way this information came to light. In 2003, 104 players were tested for steroids with the understanding that the results would remain private—and ultimately, expunged. Alex Rodriguez was one of those 104 players. I don’t know how someone discovered A-Rod’s failed test, but they did—and subsequently, leaked the information to the media. As a result, it has left most of the sports world crying out for the other 103 names.

However, disclosing the other 103 names is not so simple. Michael McCann, an SI legal analyst and professor at Vermont Law School, wrote a great piece weighing out all the possibilities of revealing those other names while addressing the pros and cons in terms of its general effects and legal ramifications on the different parties involved. I highly suggest you read it.

Perhaps the most important excerpt of McCann's article, came at the very end.

"One party not mentioned above may be the one with the greatest interest in the 103 names: Bud Selig, the commissioner of MLB. As commissioner, Selig possesses the “best interests of the game” authority, a purposefully vague concept, found in baseball’s constitution (the Major League Agreement, originally drafted in 1921) and one that has been interpreted in various ways over the years by different commissioners. Selig might conclude that the 103 unknown names will hang over baseball like a black cloud, damaging the game and endangering its credibility with fans, many of whom, due to the economy, may already be inclined to attend fewer games and buy less merchandise. Although it would likely lead to legal objection by the MLBPA, Selig could release the 103 names (if he is aware of them) or demand that the MLBPA does so. Such moves would likely trigger a dramatic showdown between the league and the players, a provocative, though ultimately sad situation that could only exist in this Steroid Era of baseball."

What will Selig think is best for the game? Will it be releasing the 103 names that tested positive in 2003; or erasing them completely, letting A-Rod take the lone fall from those specific tests, and attempting to move on? Ultimately, it will come down to what actions it will take to remove, or at least push aside, the steroid era cloud that hovers over the MLB.

Take a long look at McCann’s piece and weigh in on your thoughts.

This article can also be seen at: The Blog for the National Sports and Entertainment Law Society

Anquan Boldin: Will the Cardinals Desert the Contract He Deserves?

Brian Packey — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 16:43:58 -0500

Before the 2008-2009 season started, the Arizona Cardinals supposedly promised Anquan Boldin a new contract. A contract that presumably would have given him more than he is making now, with a dollar value more representative of his talent in relation to other wide receivers in the NFL.

Instead, the Cardinals decided to give his teammate, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, a new four-year deal worth $40 million. They forgot about their promise to Boldin and, in doing so, caused a major rift between him and the organization throughout the season.

Legally, Boldin has no recourse against the Cardinals for their preseason contract promise. Boldin is currently in the middle of a four-year contract worth $22.75 million, and the Cardinals have no obligation to restructure that based on a loose promise.

However, by not doing so, they may have burned the bridge between the two sides, as far as any future contract negotiations are concerned.

Meanwhile, Boldin will have to live up to the contract if he wants to get paid. Before the season, he promised that he would not allow the contract issues to get in the way of how he approached the season and how he would play.

He held up that promise as he finished the season with 89 receptions, 11 touchdowns, and 1,038 yards. Those numbers put Boldin at just seven receptions, one touchdown, and 300 yards short of Fitzgerald—in four fewer games.

Does that make him worth almost $20 million less? I don’t think so, and I think the Cardinals could patch things up with a lucrative contract offer. After all, we’re talking about the fastest wide receiver in NFL history to reach 400 receptions, doing it in just 67 games.

We’re talking about the guy who was the center of the Cardinals offense for the meat of the games this season and helped secure their playoff berth. He had 10 catches for over 100 yards before breaking his face in Week Four against the Jets.

He came back just three weeks later and continued right where he left off. In those next five weeks he scored six touchdowns while catching 46 passes for 513 yards. The Cardinals clinched their division two weeks later.

The following week, Boldin hurt his leg, which forced him to miss the final two games of the season. He worked his way back for the first round matchup against Atlanta, but tweaked the leg again on an impressive 71-yard touchdown run. Boldin managed to be ready for the following week’s game, the NFC Championship against Philadelphia, but saw limited action.

Near the end of the game, with the Cardinals down a point, Boldin was benched for more than half of the team’s remaining plays, including their game-winning drive. It was during that time that Boldin was seen getting in a shouting match with offensive coordinator Todd Haley. After the win, Boldin did not celebrate with the team and bolted.

Boldin and the team called the situation “nothing,” but the media blew it way out of proportion. What's unfortunate is that the tirade is not representative of Boldin's behavior, but NFL fans and writers didn't see it that way.

For the entire season, Boldin played his tail off for an organization that seemed to take him for granted. His numbers are very similar to Fitzgerald’s, yet he is paid less money.

Boldin's teammates and coaches all believe he is one of the better team-oriented players in the league and works just as hard as anyone. So why doesn’t Arizona offer him the same money?

Personally, I think they had second thoughts when he was already under contract. There was no reason to carry through with such a promise, other than as a matter of principle and to appease Boldin and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus.

Remember, Rosenhaus is the same super-aggressive agent that represents Terrell Owens. He has a reputation for requesting figures for his clients which are above their market value, and I’m sure the Cardinals were well aware of that.

Boldin’s numbers were significantly less than Fitzgerald’s the year before and, once the season began, I’m sure contract negotiations were the last thing they wanted to deal with...especially since Boldin was involved in what appeared to be a very serious injury in the fourth week. It was no longer reasonable to go out and make any contract negotiations at that point.

That being said, the Cardinals saw how Boldin reacted to the adversity this season. He has been injured on and off the field and still managed to have a year statistically comparable to Larry Fitzgerald.

Boldin has earned the respect of his teammates and coaches for being a team player and a hard worker even though he knows he should have a contract similar to Fitzgerald’s.

Here is one testimonial taken from a recent ESPN article:

“I’m sure this season has been bittersweet for Anquan,” Cardinals defensive end Bert Berry said, “I’m sure he felt like he deserved the kind of money that Fitz got, but Anquan always has been a team guy. We’ve seen the way he’s responded to challenges, and we also know we’re a better team whenever he’s on the field.”

Based on Anquan's character thoughout the season, I doubt his conflict with the offensive coordinator and organization will have any impact next season. Boldin will certainly do his part. The question is whether or not Arizona will do its part.

Do they desert his desire for a new contract or offer him that Fitzgerald-esque contract? What do you think?

This article can also be seen at: National Sports and Entertainment Law Society

Manny Ramirez Rejects Yet Another Lucrative Offer from the Dodgers

Brian Packey — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 16:40:43 -0500

Manny Ramirez, with the help of agent Scott Boras, rejected the Dodgers latest offer; reportedly a one-year deal worth $25 million. If he accepted, it would have given Manny the second-highest annual salary in the history of baseball.

Manny appears to be holding out for one last multi-year, megabucks contract, that I don’t think he will get this offseason. The Dodgers are certainly interested in obtaining the services of this future Hall of Famer, hence the three contract offers and constant negotiations, but they have already made it clear that they do not plan on offering him that four- or five-year deal he desires.

While Boras claims he is in negotiations with a few teams, I don’t think any team is willing to offer that type of deal in what is a an economically tough time for most everyone. Remember also that Manny is going to be 37 in May.

This begs the question, what is going on in Manny and Boras’ heads right now?

With just about two weeks until Spring Training, it will be interesting to see what transpires with the Manny Ramirez contract situation.

Will Scott Boras pull off another record deal? Will Manny hold out and not play until a team gets desperate enough to offer an absurd amount of money in a one-year deal that he can’t possibly refuse? (I’m thinking the $25 million and two-year $45 million, with a third year option, deals were pretty reasonable.) Or will Manny and Boras come to a happy medium with the Dodgers so that he can be ready to play the game he loves come Opening Day? Heh.

UPDATE

I’ve been discussing this with my esteemed colleague Jared Smith, who attends Ohio State’s prestigious law school, and we’ve come to the conclusion that Manny probably is holding out for at least three years guaranteed.

It was brought to my attention that Gary Sheffield signed a three-year deal with the Tigers a couple years ago for $14 million per year, at the same age of 37. Sheffield more than likely set the precedent for HOF, 37-year old hitters in this day and age.

I think it’s safe to say that Manny is a better hitter than Sheffield and is probably requesting a better deal than what he got. The Dodgers' two-year, $45 million deal with a third-year option probably should have been accepted if the option was Manny’s, but I’m guessing it was probably a team option, which defeats the purpose of Manny’s “long term” contract security goal.

I guess we’ll see what happens.

This article can also be seen at: National Sports and Entertainment Law Society Blog.