Bleacher Report - Articles by Luis Alberto

NFL Stats Analysis: Why The NFL's QB Rating Formula Doesn't Work

Luis Alberto — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 15:16:44 -0400

I did a little research this weekend. I looked at the calculation for the current QB rating system, and you know what? It kind of sucks.

Explanation of the Formula

Here’s the formula—it’s based on four general categories. The specific category for each part of the calculation is in the brackets:

a = ((Comp/Att) * 100) -30) / 20 [Completion percentage]

b = ((TDs/Att) * 100) / 5 [Touchdown Pass pct]

c = (9.5 – (Int/Att) * 100))/4 [Interception pct]

d = ((Yards/Att) – 3) / 4 [Yards per attempt]

The final formula is (a + b + c + d)/.06

[source: www.primecomputing.com]

So that you don’t have to go too nuts digging into what the formula is doing, I’ll try to explain as best I can.

The intent of the formula is to give, essentially, equal weighting to each of these categories. Because some of the numbers are percentages and others are integers, some data manipulation needs to take place (e.g., multiply the percentages by 100).

Also, not all stats are on the same scale—even if they are both percentages. For example, 10 percent is a very good touchdown percentage, but it is a horrible completion percentage. So, each of the categories is divided by a different amount. There are a few other pieces in place to “normalize” the numbers and try to ensure equal weighting.

The Formula Applied

To finish up the explanation of the calculation, let me give an example and show you how the categories factor into the final rating.

A player with a 50 percent completion percentage, five percent TDs, 5.5 percent interception percentage, and seven-yards per attempt will have a QB rating of 66.67.

This is how each category contributed to the rating:

Completion Percentage = 16.67

Touchdown Percentage + 16.67

Interception Percentage + 16.67

Yards Per Attempt + 16.67

Final QB Rating = 66.67.

So maybe I cheated a little with the numbers chosen. But, to me, it appears that, when the formula was written, the statistics I laid out above (50 percent comp, five percent TD, 5.5 five Int, seven Y/A) is what the NFL considered an average or midpoint quarterback. So, a rating of 66.67 was considered the midpoint of the rating.

I know you’re saying that, today, a rating of 67 gets you a one way ticket to the CFL. But that’s likely a result of changes in the game—including more restrictions on defensive backs and the growth of efficiency-oriented (for lack of a better term) pass offenses like the west coast offense. Some of these offenses actually replace elements of the running game (for an example see: Patriots, New England). This leads to significantly higher completion percentages and fewer interceptions.

Why it Sucks

After reviewing the calculation, I came to the following conclusion: It sucks. I have a few reasons why:

-The formula doesn’t give enough weight to yards per attempt.

-The formula gives far too much weight to completion and TD percentage

Despite looking like a very fancy calculation, there is no real science behind it. I understand that nobody wants to overcomplicate things. But, if you’re going to have something that looks as horrible as this formula (thereby making things look complicated), there should be some rationale behind it.

I have run a regression model and found that yards per attempt is by far the biggest driver of points scored. (By no means do I claim to be the first to discover this. Just check out ColdHardFootballFacts.com or advancednflstats.com to see some pretty in-depth analysis on this topic. Or you could stay on nflstatanalysis.com, which also has some brilliant stuff—just saying).

At the end of the day, a quarterback’s job is to score points. The model also suggested that interception percentage plays a role, but not nearly as great as Y/A.

As far as the other two categories? Let’s address them in order:

Touchdown percentage, in my mind, is what Brian Burke at AdvancedNFLStats.com would call an “intermediate outcome” (my apologies if I’m mis-using the term). This means that a player who’s good at other things (e.g. moving the ball down the field) is likely to get more TD opportunities and, therefore, more TD passes. While better quarterbacks tend to throw more TD passes, it’s probably because the quarterback has more yards and completions and really, a TD pass is really just a completion on a different part of the field. With that said, I don’t have a huge issue with TD percent being a part of the calculation. I just don’t think it adds much.

However...

I have several issues with completion percentage being a part of model. Evidence suggests that completion percentage, in and of itself, has no real bearing on points or outcome. So, it doesn’t deserve equal billing with the other categories—especially Y/A.

But, here’s the thing. Although it's not immediately apparent, completion percentage actually has a higher weight than each of the other factors.

Think about it. On the surface, completion percentage and Y/A (as well as Int and TD percentage) get equal billing in the formula. But, the formula to calculate Y/A could be restated as yards per completion times completion percentage. This means that completion percentage actually accounts for somewhere around one-third of the model...and, it doesn’t add anything that Y/A doesn’t.

This would be the equivalent of including yards per completion as well as Y/A. The two metrics are, essentially, functions of each other. And, like completion percentage, a player could have averaged 40 yards per completion—but, if he only completed 10 percent of his throws, he didn’t have a very good game.

Yards per attempt is all you need.

The Extreme Example of Why the QB Rating Sucks

Take the examples below—and yes, I’m intentionally using extremes.

Quarterback One—let’s call him Chad Mennington—dinks and dunks his way through a Sunday afternoon. He finishes 40 for 40 for 100 yards and one TD with two interceptions. I don’t know whether he won the game. And, frankly, it doesn’t matter because anyone watching on TV or in person has long since killed themselves out of boredom.

Quarterback Two—let’s call him Jay Cutler—I’m not even trying anymore—completes 10 passes on 40 attempts for 350 yards and two TDs with zero interceptions.

What would their QB ratings be? Quarterback One would have a rating of 83.3 while Quarterback Two would have a rating of 76. (See Table 1 to the right)

Quarterback One probably did nothing to move his team down the field. But, because his harmless passes were not incomplete, he is given a high rating.

What Next?

I’m just some schlep who is using a geeky web site as a way to work through an early mid-life crisis—so, I’ll never have any impact on the NFL changing their QB rating calculation.

But, I have taken a stab at it anyway. You could actually rank QBs simply by their Y/A and get a better indication of a player's relative worth. Again, go to ColdHardFootballFacts.com to see someone do just that.

I’ve taken it a step further and calculated a rating based on Y/A and interception percentage—with a much higher weight being placed on Y/A (per the regression model). Additionally, the actual metric used was not simply Y/A, but Y/A adjusted for the quality of the opponent. The metric was Y/A minus the average Y/A of the opponent (the same metric was used for interception percentage). My adjusted QB rating is currently called Opponent Adjusted QB Rating—or OA QB Rating—or OAQBR (but I’ll think of something better). See the results here.

Most of the ratings were in line between my rankings and the QB rating system. But, in my mind, OAQBR adjusted certain anomalies that gave too much credit to completion percentage (and, to a lesser degree, TD percentage). Some examples:

Philip Rivers

After week three (not including Monday night’s game), Philip Rivers ranked 18th in the league with a rating of 86.1. He had an OABQR of 6.36—good for second in the league.

What drove the difference?

Rivers has averaged almost nine-yards per attempt, which gave him a good score in my ratings. However, his 59 percent completions brought him down in the traditional ratings system. (His TD percentage is not exceptional—this statistic is not part of my calculation).

With that said, Rivers has his team at 2-1 and averaging 24-points per game. He is also leading the league with 991 yards passing.

Essentially, Rivers is being penalized for taking shots down the field. His production (in terms of yards) is higher than any other quarterback.

The system favors the dink/dunkers.

Brett Favre

This week's great finish aside, Brett Favre has done very little to help his team score points. He's averaging just over six-yards per attempt, which is not even in the top-20. But, he's completing 70 percent of his passes—albeit for almost no yardage—so he has a QB rating of 94.5. This makes him the eighth highest rated passer in football.

In my ratings, Favre ranks 26th with a -3.39. That's not to say he sucks or hasn't played well. He just hasn't done anything to merit a lofty rating at the game's most important position, when all he's done is play pitch and catch with a couple of guys five yards away from him.

NFL Stat Analysis: Opposition Adjusted Quarterback Rating

Luis Alberto — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:40:24 -0400

Opponent Adjusted Quarterback Rating: Week Two

I recently put together a regression model to determine the factors that most drive the number of points a football team scores in any given game. It's a work in progress, but the factors I looked at were:

Yards per attempt (Y/A)
Interception Percentage
Yards/Rush
Average Y/A yielded by opponent
Average points yielded by opponent

Of the variables above, Y/A was, by the far, the strongest—followed by interception percentage. The other three were pretty close in importance.

You'll notice that a quarterback has a direct impact on two of the five. With that in mind, I decided to create a quarterback rating system that looks primarily at the factors of Y/A and interception percentage.

Further, because a quarterback's performance is obviously affected by their opponent, I added an element that accounts for the quality of the opponent's defense

The formula for the rating, which I'm going to call the Opposition Adjusted Quarterback Rating (OA Quarterback Rating) until I can think of a cooler or funnier name.

The formula was basically:

Y/A minus the opponent's average Y/A yielded PLUS
Int percentage minus the opponent's average Int percentage yielded

A few notes. Because the season is only two weeks old, the "Opposition Stats"—the stats that were used for Y/A and Int percentage yielded—were from all of 2008 and the first two weeks of 2009. So, there is a margin of error there.

Also, when calculating the "Opposition Stats", the metrics from the game against the current quarterback was not counted. (i.e., if Jay Cutler is playing the Raiders, the "Opposition Stats" are from all of the games in 2008 and 2009 except for the one being played against the Raiders).

By the way, this is all a work in progress. As I get more information I will layer it in.

Below are the OA Quarterback Ratings for 2009 through Week Two. See the 2008 rankings here.

OA Quarterback Ratings: Through Week Two 2009

NFL Stat Analysis: Yards Per Attempt: More Important Than You Think

Luis Alberto — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:32:47 -0400

My goal is to get into more robust analysis than what you're about to read. But, just to get myself started, I started looking at some data to see if there is any way to predict a team's offensive output (in terms of points).

Before I get to that, I want to give a little background. I'm of the ever shrinking school of thought that a quarterback should not be judged by his win-loss record. Working backwards, I decided that quarterbacks have much more control over their team's offensive output than they do over the actual game results. That's why my first article/analysis/"journey into loser-dome" is trying to find the stats that can predict offensive output.

I started off by looking at a couple of basic stats:

Yards per attempt
Interception %
Average points given up by opponent (with the game being analyzed backed out)

I'll dig into more stats as I get more time, but I wanted to get moving on this.

The first thing I did was look at the correlation of each of these individual statistics with the team's scoring output. The numbers used were the averages for the 2008 season.

The 3 graphs to the right show the correlation between each of the 3 variables above and team scoring. If there is a correlation, we'll see a linear pattern, with the data points arranging themselves diagonally from bottom left to top right (or, if it is a negative correlation, from top left to bottom right).

The results were a little surprising to me. Basically, the correlation of team score and the quarterback's yards per attempt is significantly stronger than the other two. Interception % ahad almost no predictive value and average defense only offered a little more.

____________________________________________________________________

Applying "Model" to Game Level Yards Per Attempt
Let's take this a step further and apply the formula from the correlation of average yards per attempt and team score (Table 1-a) and apply it to individual games in 2008. The formula was y = 3.9572x - 5.7059 (x is yards per attempt, y is team score)

The resulting graph has an R squared of 0.2746. This means that 27.46 percent of the variance can be accounted for by this one variable. While that's not great, when you consider all of the factors that go into a 60 minute football game, being able to explain one-quarter of the variance team output with one metric is pretty surprising.
___________________________________________________________________

Do We Even Have to Look At The Score?
We know that there is some predictive value to comparing a quarterback's yards per attempt to the team's scoring. So, what if we look at how frequently the quarterback with the higher yards per attempt wins individual games.
Teams with a favorable yards per attempt won at a 71% clip (150-61). Only the Seahawks (2-6), Rams (0-3), Chiefs (1-3), Raiders (2-4), Lions (0-1), Bengals (1-2) and Packers (5-6) had losing records in games where they had better yards per attempt. Only the Titans (5-2) had a winning record when they had an inferior yards per attempt.

All of this says to me that a player who has a better yards per attempt statistic has a better chance of leading his team to victory.
What does this all mean? Not sure.

____________________________________________________________________
One Last Thing
Below is a listing of quarterbacks and their yards per attempt.

Haven't the Fans Suffered Enough: The New York Jets Need To Get Jay Cutler

Luis Alberto — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 09:59:20 -0400

They stood there in their green and white jerseys—mouths agape. Did he just say that?

“I want to kiss you.” The slurred words were like nails on a chalkboard to Jets fan. Their idol. The legendary icon to a franchise with few legendary icons had just propositioned Suzy Kolber while being interviewed during a Jets-Patriots game in 2003.

Joe Namath told Suzy Kolber that he wanted to...kiss her. Sigh.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is what it means to be a Jets’ fan. Their one legend—the only person who has ever brought this team to the Super Bowl (much less won it)—had just torn their hearts out with a drunken display.

To this day, the Jets have not been able to replace the great Namath. And now, even those memories are stained with the image of Namath’s glossy-eyed proposition.

That is part of the reason why the Jets need to get Jay Cutler. I’ll go into it further in a minute. For now, please read the following hypothetical tale (think ABC Family special geared towards the tween crowd):

Mike is an average high school senior. He’s not the captain of the football team, but he’s not the geek who gets beat up every morning either. Average in every way. Like most high school seniors, he’s a little insecure and tries to do nothing to embarrass himself. Also, like most high school seniors, he’s stressing about finding a date for the prom.

You see, all the ingredients are there for an incredible prom night. He and his friends have rented a huge stretch limo with a bar and a high def TV. They have access to a friend’s house down on the shore where they will surely have a time to remember.

The only problem is finding a date. His current plan is to take Kelly, his third cousin. She’s average in every way, just like him. She’s not ugly. Nobody knows they’re cousins. It will be...fine. Not perfect. Fine.

Last year, Mike was in a similar situation. And, as he always does when it comes to women, he took the easy way out. He just wanted a date that he wouldn’t be embarrassed by.

He took Britt, his older sister’s hot friend. Britt was super popular in high school and jumped at the opportunity to relive some of that high school glory. She liked college enough, but high school was the bomb.

Taking Britt wasn’t bad. She looked good (although a little out of place) and was a good date and a good dancer. But, she also came off as trying to live off her reputation from her high school days.

It was a little pathetic—but it didn’t reflect poorly on Mike. He was average and she was good looking. You could call her a cougar in the making. It was fine. Not great. Fine.

The thing is, Mike’s good friend Jane just broke up with her boyfriend Josh. It seems that Josh was screwing around with Maddy – the girl who finished junior year about forty pounds overweight and came back to school in the fall in great shape and looking...almost...hot.

Everyone in the school knew Josh was trading down in that deal, but he couldn’t help it. Jane dumped him. Jane also happens to be the prettiest girl in high school, very smart, and has all the makings of a long term girlfriend - not just arm candy for the prom. She does have a flaw that she gets a little bitchy in certain circumstances.

But, as she proved with her old boyfriend Mickey, she is very loyal and the bitchiness could certainly be reigned in – to the point where she could be a once in a lifetime girlfriend.

There is no question. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Mike to kill two birds with one stone. He would be getting a great prom date—ensuring a fantastic prom—and a girl that Mike would love to date long term.

He just needs to seize the opportunity. She’s definitely looking for a nice, smart guy after being spurned by an arrogant moron. The suitors were sure to line up. Teams like Detroit and Tampa Bay uhh....I mean...Other guys with more to offer are knocking down her door. But, none of them have a better fit.

None of them have a fan base, I mean family that would appreciate her more. All of them have had a bit more success in this arena than Mike. It’s his turn. Mike needs a strategy. Should he play hard to get? Given the interest from other guys, that was probably not an ideal approach. Should he just call and ask straight out—losing a ton of leverage? (Leverage? This analogy is really starting to get weak)

He thought for a moment that he could drive by her house a few times – and duck if she sees him. Maybe even call and hang up a couple of times. As much as he liked that idea, the risk of imprisonment seemed too great.

The opportunity is there. Mike knows what he NEEDS to do. He just needs to find a way to do it.

******

The tale just completed – despite being able to hold on literary merit alone – was actually a metaphor (or something like that) to the situation that is occurring in Denver. The characters in the tale represent current stakeholders in the Cutler saga.

Mike, the average high school senior, represents Mike Tannenbaum, the GM of the New York Jets—a team that has been very average since Willy Joe strutted around in nylons.

Kelly, the third cousin who was a serviceable prom date, represents Kellen Clemens, who is the Jets' current option at QB.

Britt, the older cougar who relived her glory days by joining Mike at the Junior Prom, represents Brett Favre who was an adequate player in his one year with the Jets. But, there was something about him that just didn’t seem like the Brett Favre of the nineties.

Jane, the unbelievably hot and (equally unbelievably) available (and bitchy) high school senior represents Jay Cutler.

Josh, the senior who didn’t know what he had in Jane, represents Josh McDaniels.

Maddy, the girl who lost weight and almost looked hot, represents new Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, who went from the verge of being cut to a star quarterback - or one year serviceable quarterback on a great team.

Mickey, Jane’s ex, ex-boyfriend who was able to reign in the bitchiness, represents Cutler’s former coach Mike Shanahan.

Read on......

***********************************************************

Don’t look now, but the New York Jets have looked somewhat (gasp) competent in putting together what should be a (gasp) contender in the 2009 season.

Tired of playing second fiddle in their own market (if you count the other major sports in the area, they go from second fiddle to sixth or seventh fiddle) and hoping to hit the ground running when they open their new stadium next year, the Jets have made splashes in back to back off-seasons.

Last year, their haul included big contracts for free agents Alan Faneca, Kris Jenkins, Damien Woody and Calvin Pace.

Later in the offseason, in a move that generally flew under the radar (in the same way that Curt Schilling’s comments fly under the radar; and the same way that Jennifer Lopez’ backside flies under the radar; and Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan etc.), the Jets traded a mid-round pick for Brett Favre.

Faneca and Jenkins were generally outstanding while Woody and Pace did what they were brought in to do—upgrade their respective positions. And despite some opinions to the contrary, Favre was ok in New York.

This year, all the Jets have done is add Bart Scott—the best defensive free agent who has never stepped on Andre Gurode’s head—and a coach in Rex Ryan who was the brains behind the Baltimore Ravens defense.

For the record, Rex Ryan was also the brains behind the 2007 timeout call that allowed the Patriots to move to 12-0 on their way to an undefeated season. Given the general sentiment towards the Patriots that year—e.g. Spygate, running up the score—I would imagine many, many dogs were kicked in frustration after that move.

The Jets have most of the pieces in place to be a contender.

The only issue? Favre retired (we think) leaving a gaping hole at quarterback. The Jets proved last year they would pay top dollar for even a one year fix at the position. Cutler represents much more than that.

A handful of reasons Cutler is the perfect fit for the Jets:

He looks like the real deal. Drafting a quarterback early in the first round has become much riskier in recent years. Whether it’s the need to prove themselves too quickly—and justify the money they’re being paid in their huge rookie contracts—or just the shock of the transition to the NFL, highly picked QBs seem to be failing at a higher rate than ever. Alex Smith, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Vince Young, Matt Leinart (the list goes on) were all high draft picks who flamed out (or look like they’re going to flame out) early. Teams paid dearly for these players in the hopes that they would, at least, become franchise cornerstones, and, at best, become stars in the mold of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. In other words, they gambled in the hopes that a player would look and perform like Jay Cutler after three years.
Look at it a different way. How much would a team give up for a player who, coming out of college, looked like he had all the tools to be a star? And, three years later, is following the trajectory that teams dream of when they draft a quarterback high in the first round.
A quarterback like this hasn’t been traded (or available in free agency) since...ever? At least the last couple of decades. The most similar case in the last 25 years was when the Colts traded Jeff George to the Falcons in 1994. However, despite many comparisons currently being made between the two men—due more to personality than talent—George hadn’t enjoyed nearly as much success as Cutler has enjoyed to this point. Most of the quarterback trades that have taken place are for veteran’s whose team wants to move on (Favre, Montana), backups who have had some success in the preseason or in place of an injured starter (Cassel, Scott Mitchel, Matt Hasselbeck) or lower tier quarterbacks.
The Jets’ in-town rival, the Giants, and their biggest division rival, the Patriots, are both fielding franchise quarterbacks that should keep them in contention for at least the next five years. By not making this move, the Jets face several more years of chasing the Giants and Patriots.
Oh, and Pats fans would HATE him.
Cutler’s brash (arrogant?) personality could be either a perfect fit or a toxin in New York. He was very popular in Colorado, which certainly doesn’t equate to popularity in New York. However, if he can learn to contain himself a little—and realize that ANYTHING that sounds remotely like complaining by a young millionaire athlete can only create a negative perception with the fans—he could become New York’s biggest sports personality.
New York is currently taking applications for most popular athlete. Michael Strahan has retired. Derek Jeter is getting older. ARod is...well...ARod. The Knicks’ biggest accomplishment in the last five years has been giving up fifty points to Kobe and LeBron in back to back games. The opportunity is there.
If Cutler ends up in New York, he should call Tom Brady’s PR people and do whatever they say to take advantage of the current lack of sports heroes in New York (at least by New York standards).
And, if you don’t believe that a “fish out of water” southern guy can’t own the big city, look at Joe Namath.
The Jets can’t count on the draft for the current need at quarterback. With the players they have on the roster, the Jets are in a position to win now. They have pieces in place at most other positions and can’t wait the two or three years that it takes a rookie to develop—if they ever do. The Vikings are in a similar position and have been stunted by Tarvaris Jackson’s growing pains.

Finally, I offer Jets fans this final nugget. Imagine if (and it’s a big if) Jay Cutler comes in and does what Namath did. Meaning, he’s a charismatic figure who leads the team to a Super Bowl victory.

But, let’s add one piece to this hypothetical scenario. Twenty years after his retirement, Jay Cutler does an interview at halftime of a Patriots—Jets Monday night game. Like Namath, the clearly intoxicated Cutler says he wants to kiss the reporter interviewing him—Suzy’s granddaughter Meg Kolber.

Jets fans cringe—they’ve seen this before. But, something strange happens. Meg looks at Cutler and plants a big wet one on his mouth. She then puts down the microphone, tells the cameraman the interview’s over, and takes Cutler back to her room.

That’s an ending that the long suffering Jets fans deserve.

A St. Paddy's Day Toast to Irish Athletes

Luis Alberto — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 00:07:34 -0400

Despite being a country of only four million people, Ireland is a country with a rich and varied sporting history. Additionally, with the United States being home to another twenty -four million people of Irish descent (23 million of which will be drunk by 10AM on Tuesday)....In honor of St. Patrick’s day, I present to you ten of the greatest athletes in Irish (and in two cases, Irish-American) history.

Begin Slideshow

Super Bowl XLIII - Three F%$king Incredible Plays

Luis Alberto — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:26:39 -0400

Since the end of Super Bowl XLIII,I’ve been hearing quite a bit of debate as to whether this was the best Super Bowl ever. Don Banks says yes, as does Peter King.

Bill Simmons says definitely not. John Madden didn’t say anything...and he needs his bedpan changed.

I’ve thought about this, and I can’t really make a decision. Honestly, because of my age, my viewpoint when it comes to Super Bowls starts somewhere around the 1982 game between the Redskins and Dolphins.

The Redskins won that game 27-17, but were beaten the next year by the LA Raiders. After that, watching the Super Bowl became a real-life version of Bill Murray waking up day after day to cover Punxsutawney Phil. You just wanted it to end.

You would find yourself doing things like completing Knight Rider-themed crosswords because they were more interesting than the game. There was no Internet…and you couldn’t NOT watch. It was the Super Bowl...an American institution. And I wasn’t old enough to drink.

Seriously, here are some of the facts about Super Bowls in the 80’s and 90’s:

After the Raiders beat the Redskins (in a blowout), the NFC won the next thirteen (13!!!) Super Bowls by an average score of 116. [the average margin of victory was actually about 21 points]
Only two of those 13 NFC wins were by single digits. The 49ers beat the Bengals 20-16 in Super Bowl XXIII and the Giants beat the Bills 20-19 in Super Bowl XXV.
That 13-year run brought us scores of 46-10, 39-20, 42-10, 55-10, 52-17, and 49-26. This was supposed to be an annual game between the two best teams in the league.

After this run of legendary games came the free agency era, where it seemed like you got a couple of lucky bounces and, next thing you knew, you were going to Disney World.

In back-to-back-to-back years we had the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers get hot at the right time and coast to Super Bowl victories. Granted, the Pats proved to be more than just an okay team for the long haul.

So, you can see why the term “Best Super Bowl Ever” doesn’t mean all that much to me. As long as everyone remembers their helmets and the TV works, then it’s among the top 10 ever. If I have a seat on a couch or recliner, the game is immediately a top 5 game.

With all of that said, as far as I’m concerned, this Super Bowl did provide us with (at least) three of the top 10 plays in Super Bowl history. I guess that’s to be expected whenever Larry Fitzgerald is on the field.

These three plays were incredible plays at incredible moments. And, best of all, we got to watch them with John Madden, a man who can spout out incredibly intelligent facts about a cover-2 defense one moment then follow that up by asking Al Michaels what he thought of the previous night’s episode of "Gunsmoke."

Here are the three plays in vivid detail.

Great Play No. 1

The first of the three plays was the last of the first half. The Steelers led 10-7 and the Cardinals had driven deep into Pittsburgh territory.

An estimated 88 percent of the 5 billion people watching the game (per NBC estimates) had full bladders, but nobody wanted to miss a potential Cardinals touchdown.

Combine that with the fact that most people would stick a pencil in their eye before missing a Super Bowl commercial, and you had yourself close to 5 billion bladders on the verge of explosion.

When James Harrison intercepted Kurt Warner’s pass in the end zone with less than 15 seconds to go, stampedes occurred at parties from Juneau to Key West.

You see, the worldwide logic was that Harrison would get caught within about twenty yards by Larry (Batman) Fitzgerald; the Steelers would kneel down to kill the clock, and, most importantly, all of this would take just long enough for a bathroom break that did not cause fans to miss a touchdown or an ad.

But, the few people who kept watching saw something completely unexpected. Harrison just kept on running. Anquin Boldin, confident in the knowledge that Fitzy would track down Harrison, had retreated to the locker room to call his agent to see if there had been any progress on his new contract during the first half.

Several other Cardinals players stood and watched Fitzgerald, knowing he would do something cool. When Harrison crossed midfield and Fitzgerald was nowhere to be seen, his teammates figured he had something big in mind. They were excited. Larry was gonna put on a show.

Meanwhile, a few yards behind the ball carrier, Fitzgerald looked like the hot girl in the climactic scene of a horror movie, running as fast as he could and tripping over everything in sight. Just when he was catching a head of steam around midfield, he ran into Antrel Rolle on the Cardinals sideline.

Harrison continued running, confused why Fitzgerald hadn’t drilled him yet. This scared him. What did Larry have in mind? Would it hurt? Was he going to be humiliated? The waiting killed him. He felt like Tom Hanks and Matt Damon in “Saving Private Ryan” as they waited for the Germans to come and pummel them. Harrison wanted to go home.

To this point, Steve Breaston had been giving full chase the entire way and was only feet away from Harrison as he approached the end zone. Breaston’s effort had nothing to do with catching Harrison though. Breaston just wanted to be as close as possible when Fitzgerald did whatever cool thing he had up his sleeve.

As Harrison approached the end zone, Fitzgerald started gaining on him. Billions of people were returning from their bathroom breaks – excited by the fact that they were about to see another superhuman Fitzy moment. Finally, Fitzgerald jumped on Harrison’s back and dragged him down. One……inch…..too…..late.

Fitzgerald stood up and saw the dejected look of disappointment in the eyes of his teammates. Breaston had tears in his eyes. Ken Whisenhunt, with a camera in hand hoping to capture another great moment, looked confused.

Fans around the world were walking into walls like a Sims character when he doesn’t get enough sleep. The world no longer had a hero.

It had been 10 or 12 seconds and nobody on the Cardinals had moved. Breaston, still in a complete trance, finally muttered, “Who’s gonna save us now?”

For the answer to Breaston’s question, fast forward to the fourth quarter.

Great Play No. 2

Before I get to play No. 2, I want to give a quick honorable mention to a play that would have easily made the top 3 of every other Super Bowl ever played. Take a quick look - Fitzgerald's Second Best TD of Super Bowl XLIII .

But, I couldn’t find a place for that play on my list – so, it’s out.

Play No. 2 is the now famous catch and run by Larry Fitzgerald.

I can’t stop watching it. It may be the single greatest athletic feat I’ve ever seen. You’ve all seen it a million times, but here’s the video of Fitzgerald’s play: Best Play Ever

Go ahead, try and look away…you can’t can you? I now have a man-crush on Larry Fitzgerald. And not one of those phony man-crushes, like Curt Schilling claims to have on Satchel Paige, but a real man-crush, like Curt Schilling has on himself.

A few things come to mind when I watch this play.

The first is that this one play single handedly undermines everything the scouting combines stand for. Think about it. Larry Fitzgerald, the guy in the white helmet running really fast was clocked at 4.63 in the 40-yard dash at his combine. Troy Polamalu, the guy in the black helmet who looks like he’s pulling a rickshaw, runs a 4.35.

I may not be Peter King, but there are two things I’m pretty sure of:

A 40 time of 4.35 is faster than a 40 time of 4.63
Larry Fitzgerald, the guy who runs a 4.63, was running faster (oh so much faster) than the guy who runs a 4.35.

This got me to thinking. I know it’s a cliché, but this play, more than most, is a clear example of a player having game speed. Game speed, of course, is the extra gear some players can channel when they’re in a game situation.

(A quick aside here. What the hell does the term “extra gear” even mean? I’ve driven 4 speed, 5 speed and 6 speed transmissions. An extra gear didn’t make a car go any faster. In fact, I just checked Yahoo Answers to research what an extra gear really does. Conclusion: when people say someone like Larry Fitzgerald found an extra gear what they mean is that “he had somewhat smoother shifting, better gas mileage and acceleration.” Now it makes sense.)

The question, of course, is how to measure game speed in the meat market that is the NFL scouting combine. Well..I have an answer. From now on, all athletes at the combines will be clocked in the 40-yard dash twice.

The first time will be exactly the way they do it now: in shorts on a track. The second time though (and listen up, because this idea will change the NFL draft as we know it) the athlete will have to run the 40 with Troy Polamalu chasing him.

But, I’m not done. The player won’t know when he’s going to be chased by Mr. Polamalu. Maybe it will be right after his initial 40 yard dash. Or, maybe, it will be during his interview with the San Francisco 49ers.

Picture the following exchange between NFL network analysts Jon Gruden and Steve Mariucci:

Gruden: “Mooch, the report on John Smith is that he’s a touch slow, having run the 40 in 4.65”

Mariucci – “True, but Jon, that doesn’t tell the entire story. Smith’s PA (Polomalu Adjusted) 40 time was actually 4.15. The larger concern now is his ability to deal with adversity, given that he s&*% his pants while running his PA 40.”

This play also made me realize that there is a very basic solution to the issue of performance enhancing drugs in professional sports: non-random drug tests.

Seriously, why are the pro leagues wasting time with randomized drug testing? Does MLB really need Dustin Pedroia to pee in a cup to ensure he’s not juicing?

From now on, any time a player does something unusually and freakishly athletic, an employee of the league will approach the player within 30 seconds and force him to take a drug test. Henceforth, these types of plays will be referred to as “Pee in the cup plays.”

Would MLB be in the situation it is right now if this rule were in place before 2003?

Sammy Sosa, you just hit a home run that landed in Wisconsin. Pee in the cup!
Mark McGuire, you just hit a 600-foot checked-swing home run (while wearing an extra tight XXXL jersey and getting measured with -3% body fat). You’re going to have to...pee in the cup!
Roger Clemens, you just threw a 102-mph fastball on your 58th birthday. Roger, we’re going to have to ask you to (everyone say it with me) pee in the cup!

Of course, this rule would have to apply to non-performance enhancing drugs as well.

Fellow Nutmeg stater Dan Orlovsky, you just ran out of the back of the end zone without realizing it. Sorry, I’m gonna have to ask you to pee in the cup.

I’m not in any way, shape, or form insinuating that Fitzgerald cheated. I highly doubt he did. In fact, I think he should be rewarded upon receiving word of a clean drug test.

I think he should be allowed to walk up to Tom Brady (while he’s with Giselle), turn to Brady, and say “I’ll be taking that” and walk off into the sunset with the Brazilian model.

Speaking of Giselle, has anyone seen her ex’s new flame? If not, take a look.

Bar Rafaeli 1

So, let me get this straight. Leonardo DiCaprio breaks up with Giselle…AND TRADES UP! How many guys on our planet can treat Giselle Bundchen the way most of us treat a 3-year-old Jeep Cherokee? Take another look….go ahead, I’ll wait.

Bar Rafaeli 2

Further, at no extra charge, I offer you this thought. Tom Brady is a star among stars in the NFL. He makes millions of dollars. And he recently finished fifth in the Sports Illustrated rankings of sports’ best looking male athletes, as rated by SI swimsuit models (i.e., Giselle’s friends). See the results here: Handsomest Male Athletes

Life is good for Tom, right? Well, sure, but couldn’t he have put himself in a slightly less emasculating position? He makes millions, which means he makes ALMOST as much as his girlfriend. And then there’s the ex-boyfriends.

The aforementioned Leo DiCaprio makes more money than Tom, is probably just as handsome, and really doesn’t seem to miss Giselle all that much. (Seriously, take another look - Bar Rafaeli 3 - yeah, that’s good stuff).

Of course, Leo’s only one ex-boyfriend and we all have to deal with at least one guy from our significant other’s past who is super attractive, rich, and talented and has been nominated for three Academy Awards and six Golden Globes. Besides, Tom is the fifth best looking athlete on the planet.

And, if you narrow the list down to Americans, he jumps all the way to No. 2 and that really has to impress Giselle’s friends, right? Uhhh….a little. But……you may want to check out No. 1 on that list of best looking athletes. That’s right. Former Bundchen boy toy Kelly Slater. Tom, Tom, Tom. (I’m shaking my head in disbelief).

It gets worse. In the section where the models give a quote saying what they think of each athlete, Brooklyn Decker had this to say about Slater.

“He's just dreamy. Eyes, mouth, the body structure. A dreamy guy.”

Marissa Miller had this to say about the surfer, “Can I give him an 11? Where do I begin? Number one, he surfs, which is hot, and he's extremely good-looking. He has these piercing blue eyes and an amazing body. He's my No. 1 out of everyone; I'll tell you that right now.” (I feel 20 percent worse about myself reading this quote about another man.)

Meanwhile, here’s what Fernanda Motta had to say about Tom. “He’s really cute!” Really cute?!?!? Did she pat him on the head after she said it? Marissa Miller had to take a cold shower after hearing the name “Kelly Slater” and Tom got “He’s really cute!”???

I have to stop talking about this.

Play No. 3

The game-winning catch by Santonio Holmes was a fantastic play all around. There were 43 seconds showing on the clock and Big Ben had just thrown a catchable (if not perfect) pass to Santonio in the left side of the end zone. The ball sailed through Holmes’ hands.

On the next play, Roethlisberger did a great job of buying time in the pocket and then threw a pass where only one person could catch it: Santonio Holmes. It was a great throw, but it was an even better catch. Holmes channeled his inner Cris Carter and brilliantly got both feet in bounds.

I mean, Larry Fitzgerald could have made this play with his eyes closed and a piano on his back. In fact, I think the league should level the playing field and force Fitzgerald to start playing with a piano on his back. Am I talking about Fitzgerald again? I may need to talk to someone about this.

The ramifications of Holmes’ catch were felt by more than just the members of the Steelers and Cardinals.

Santonio’s catch was another positive step in the advancement of wide receivers with funny first names. Last year, Plaxico Burress struck a blow for the goofily labeled pass catchers with the winning catch in the Super Bowl to beat the previously undefeated Patriots.

But, much of the work that had been done to gain acceptance for this group was lost when Plax shot himself in the thigh at a New York City bar this fall.

Holmes’ teammate Hines Ward, of course, started the unpopular movement to gain acceptance for these players three years ago by winning the Super Bowl MVP.

At the time, Hines knew he had a responsibility not only as one of the older players in the funny first name wide receiver club, but also as a player with only a moderately funny first name who may gain quicker acceptance.

Back in Pittsburgh, former Steelers’ star Lynn Swann admires Santonio for furthering the movement. Lynn, of course, has always had as one of his regrets his inability to forward the cause of girly named wide receivers.

As a result of Hines, Plaxico, and now Santonio, players like Reche Caldwell, Lavernues Coles, and Jabar Gaffney can hold their heads up high knowing that a funny first name is no longer a barrier to acceptance. And former players like Keyshawn Johnson and Peerless Price can sleep at night knowing their work was not forgotten.

That’s it. One game, three (and a half) great plays. I’m out of breath. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go stand outside of Larry Fitzgerald’s house and follow him wherever he goes.

Cassel's New Start and McDaniels' Low IQ

Luis Alberto — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 23:52:37 -0400

Josh McDaniels woke up on the couch with the TV blaring. He was still wearing his outfit from the night before—a No. 16 Cassel road jersey. He was surrounded by a half eaten bag of Cheetos, a pizza box full of crusts and an empty bottle of Patron.

It took a few minutes to get his thoughts together, but, when he finally did the activities of the previous day and night started coming into focus.

The day started out well. He and Brian Xanders, one of the youngest head coach/GM combinations in NFL history, had managed to sign eight free agents in the first day of free agency—including Brian Dawkins, Correll Buckhalter, and Jabar Gaffney.

Their signing of JJ Arrington fell through, but the message was sent that these two baby faced executives had arrived.

Then, there was some celebratory drinking and dancing at the hotel bar...a few high fives with Xanders...McDaniels tried to remember a bit more—but the later part of the night was a little hazy.

He took a sip of coffee from his custom made “Cassel” mug—complete with Cassel’s stats and a picture that McDaniels had always found “dreamy”.

McDaniels had a strange feeling. He couldn’t pinpoint it, but something didn’t feel right. He reached for his cell phone to call Xanders and get going on the second day of free agency. But the phone wasn’t in his pocket...interesting.

He always kept his phone on him. He looked around. It wasn’t in his jacket pocket. It wasn’t on his bedside table. He kept looking. The strange feeling got worse. He went to the couch where he had unintentionally spent the night and there it was.

McDaniels panicked. He had obviously been drunk dialing...but who? He looked at the caller ID and that’s when he saw it. Twenty-seven calls to Bill Belichick ...NOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rule No. 1 of being an NFL executive was never to negotiate with Belichick unless absolutely necessary. Rule No. 2 was to make sure you’re on your game if you decide a negotiation is necessary. Get a good night’s sleep. Have a healthy dinner. McDaniels had done not of that.

McDaniels turned on ESPN and everyone was talking about it. Suddenly, it all started coming to light. Calling the Pats. Begging them to let him have his Matty back. Offering a first round pick. Including Cutler in the negotiations. INCLUDING CUTLER IN THE NEGOTIATIONS!!!

Josh texted Cutler. But he received a text back that his number had been blocked. He called Bus Cook—Cutler’s agent. No answer.

Meanwhile, at a Vail lodge a vacationing Pat Bowlen received a phone call from an “M. Shanahan” with a Colorado area code. He answered, but all he heard was loud cackling laughter. The person on the other end was trying to speak but couldn’t through his own giddiness.

“You [laughter...] fired me [more laughter] [coughing fit]...you fired me for [outrageous laughter]...[more laughter] enjoy the babysitting Pat.” And then the dial tone.

Honestly, the Cassel deal May have an impact on the careers of a number of NFL players and executives. I thought it would be interesting to dig into two of the more intriguing storylines:

The ramifications of McDaniels’ brain fart
What we should expect from Matt Cassel in his new role – and how Cassel went from nearly being a member of the pre-season cut list to Paul McCartney circa 1969.

First, McDaniels...

Let’s put McDaniels’ actions in their true perspective.

Cutler’s one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. You could probably count on one hand the teams that wouldn’t immediately throw out their current starter for a chance at Cutler. Let’s go through the teams. The Patriots, Colts and Falcons definitely wouldn’t. The Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, and Chargers would probably think twice as well. Other than those teams, I think Cutler would be considered a huge upgrade. (I’m well aware that I only have five fingers and I listed eight teams – deal with it.)
Cutler’s young, charismatic and has a rocket arm. (And he throws into triple coverage nine times per game – but we’ll ignore that.) And, he’s been one of the few first round guys to actually earn his huge rookie contract.
McDaniels supposedly offered the first of the picks he would have acquired for Cutler – the twelfth overall (rumors had Cutler going for a first and a fourth to the Bucs) - to the Patriots for Cassel. Why would McDaniels do this if the best deal the Pats had was the 34^th pick they ended up taking? Once the Vikings, Bucs and Lions looked elsewhere for a quarterback, the market was fairly light for Cassel. Still, McDaniels (if the rumors are true) went and offered a pick that was 22 spots higher than the next highest offer.
This got me thinking. Does McDaniels walk into dealerships and vow to walk out if they don’t take his offer of 10% above sticker? Does he send Netflix an even $20 every month? Did he go to the Shelley Long school of decision making? I could go on…..
Let’s take a look at the numbers. Cutler threw for 3,500 yards in 2007 while he was in the process of losing 20 pounds due to undiagnosed Type I diabetes. Keep in mind that was only his second season in the NFL.
He followed that up with a 4,500 yard season – the 17^th best in NFL history. In 17 years, John Elway had exactly one 4,000 yard season (1993). No, I’m not saying he’s better than Elway. I just think there’s a good chance Cutler will be a star for a long time.
By being so clumsy about their communications, McDaniels and Xanders (and you almost have to figure Bowlen was at least tacitly involved by his non-disapproval) the Broncos have become the easy girl at a rural high school. The phone is ringing off the hook…..other NFL executives must be convinced they’ve finally found the “mark”. The sucker who is going to give you a guy like Cutler for a sandwich and a pat on the head. All leverage is gone. Other teams know McDaniels would consider trading Cutler. At least for now, Cutler would rather go to a Bah Mitzvah with Mel Gibson than play for McDaniels. If Cutler forces a trade, the Broncos could end up with Patrick Ramsey or Kyle Boller as their quarterback. Ladies and gentleman of Denver, how about a round of applause for your new head coach!!!
Yes, Cutler is being a bit of a baby about this. But, McDaniels has been around professional quarterbacks for a long time. He knows they’re divas. It’s not just Cutler. Teams know how to coddle their stars while making it look like the team is in control – not the player. Would Manning, Brady or even Carson Palmer sit quietly if they were dangled in trade talks? Aikman? Marino? Elway? Montana?
If you go into a coaching situation expecting to be the one coach who doesn’t have to deal with his quarterback’s ego – especially if you still wear footsie jammies and watch Elmo – then you probably aren’t very long for this job.
Cutler’s big mistake was in talking to the media. Guys like Manning and Brady know how to keep their gripes in-house.
I know the “youth” thing has been overdone as an excuse (especially recently), but Cutler’s young and he just doesn’t realize that he’s not going to get the public to sympathize with a millionaire athlete’s wounded ego. He lives in a silo where people cater to his every need. Manning and Brady have been around and they know this. Cutler will probably learn how to better handle situations like this in the future.

McDaniels screwed up and now he has to fix it. It was a classic case of trying to fix something that was far from broken. The effort should have been on upgrading other areas.

McDaniels learned his trade from Bill Belichick, who was run out of Cleveland for, among other things, cutting Bernie Kosar. But, even at the time, Bill’s move was considered brazen, but not necessarily wrong. Kosar was past his prime and, given the fact that he never got another starting job, you can draw the conclusion that most people around the league agreed with Belichick ’s assessment of Kosar.

This situation is different. There are daily rumors of teams contacting the Broncos to get Cutler. Unlike Kosar, Cutler is a valued commodity.

McDaniels can get past this. He either misplayed his hand or is exceptionally feeble-minded – I’ll guess the former. Most coaches are given at least three years to fix a team. McDaniels shortened his window. He needs to win and avoid anymore mistakes that make him and the organization look stupid. Or, fairly soon, he’ll be drunk dialing Belichick again – looking for a job.

And then there’s Cassel himself……

Matt Cassel will finally get a shot to lead his own team. Hopefully. We do need to remember that this guy misplaced his rabbit’s foot a long time ago. After a successful high school career, Cassel went to USC on scholarship.

Now, you can say what you want about his underdog story, but if a kid gets a scholarship to be a quarterback at USC he’s probably played catch once or twice. Unfortunately, a couple of guys named Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart decided to attend the same university.

Even more unfortunately, both of those guys figured—since they were there anyway – they would give the QB position a shot.

You know the rest of the story. I guess it wasn’t a completely unfortunate situation for Cassel. A lot of USC fans would have paid top dollar for field level seats to watch three (Reggie Bush won too) Heisman trophy winners ply their trade. He got these seats for free.

Now he gets to leverage one pretty good season into a starting job with a new team.

I understand that good young starting quarterbacks don’t become available every day. But, I have to say that Cassel seems awfully hyped up to me.

A month or so ago, people were throwing around the notion of multiple first round picks (mostly fans and opinionated sports radio hacks—not the Kings and Silvers).

If you do even a tiny bit of research on the recent history of trades in the NFL, the number of players who have been traded for multiple first round picks is very small. When it came down to it, there was nobody old enough to shave willing to offer even a single first round pick.

There’s just a part of me that wonders if all of this excitement was a result of the expectations being just a little too low. Truth be told, when Brady went down it was silly to think this team would win less than 10 games (and this isn’t hindsight – I said it at the time.

Nobody listened and it’s not documented anywhere…..my wife made believe she was listening, but she wasn’t. I said it though.) There are a few reasons I say this:

Six players from the Patriots’ 2007 offense made the all-pro team. An offense with six legitimate all-pro players should not see a huge decline if one of them goes down – even if it is their Hall of Fame quarterback. In fact, I can’t understand how Patriots fans get upset when [fill in the blank national sportswriter] says that one or two of the aforementioned all-pros maybe didn’t quite deserve the honor…..maybe. But, after the big injury, these same fans act like the team was Tom Brady and a bunch of gingerbread men. It can’t be both. They can’t all suck except for Brady and still be all-pros. Five all-pros on the offense is still more than just about any other team in history. (That’s not even counting the three defensive players who made all-pro and Richard Seymour who was hurt much of 2007).
Cassel stepped into an unbelievable situation and did a good job (his touchdown to Randy Moss at the end of the Jets game – actually the entire Jets game – was a thing of beauty). But, the fact is, the market was fairly light for his services and, from what I’ve read, most teams just decided it was too risky to jump on a player who stepped into the best offense of all time and managed not to embarrass himself. (Although he actually was in charge of an offense that saw an11% decline in yards, a 30% drop off in points and a 31% decline in wins)

The Patriots schedule was insanely easy. Going into the season, the Patriots were considered to have the easiest schedule (based on the results of the previous year) in the league. The improvement of the Jets and Dolphins made the schedule slightly more difficult, but the Pats still played eight games against the two worst divisions in football – the AFC West and the NFC West. Seven of their eleven wins came against the teams in these two divisions (they lost to the Chargers) – which had only one winning team between them.
Their other four wins were in the division – two against the Bills and one each against the Jets and Dolphins. They lost the two non-divisional games they played outside of the western divisions – against the Steelers and Colts. Where does that leave us? With a team that won a bunch of games they should have won. They beat three teams with winning records – the Cardinals, Jets and Dolphins. Can you honestly scan the Patriots schedule and find one game they won that they shouldn’t have?

I’m always the first to say that fans attribute way to much credit for winning and losing to individual players—especially quarterbacks.

But, in this case, I’m seeing a player get a ton of credit for “saving the season” (I actually heard that one on TV last night) when, in reality, his insertion into the offense was the only difference on a unit that had an enormous drop-off in production.

I obviously don’t blame him for the entire drop off, but given all of the above facts, I can’t make my way to the line of reasoning that has him as this guy who should be courted like a horny Paris Hilton after two mojitos.

I’m pulling for him. He seems like a nice guy and a pretty good player. He says all the right things when a microphone is in front of him. But, Dwayne Bowe is not Randy Moss, Tom Haley is not Bill Belichick and whoever the hell the Chiefs number two receiver is...who the hell is their number two receiver?

(Seriously, I just checked their roster and I’ve never heard of any of these guys! Who did Scott Pioli replace? A piece of sheetrock?!? Oh right, Carl Peterson. Was Peterson doing Soduku puzzles during the last five drafts? Devard Darling? Will Franklin? Kevin Robinson? Mark Bradley? I just checked Wikipedia and it said that in 2006 “Bradley caught two touchdown passes for 202 yards.” Impressive. I may not know who Bradley is, but his experience of averaging 101 yards per catch should come in handy. Ahh….open source Wikipedia—It’s fantastic!)

What I was about to say is that the Chiefs number two receiver is no Wes Welker—but then my ADHD kicked in.

Cassel will have his hands full this year, but, if Pioli gets time to work his magic Cassel may become a solid long term answer that hasn’t had a good young quarterback since...Len Dawson?

Trent Green was good but I feel like he’s been 37 for fifteen years now. Speaking of Len Dawson, with Dawson’s number sixteen retired, the big question for Cassel will now be his number selection.

Weak send segway—I know…..I’m still learning here, cut me some slack.

Cassel’s great day was a McDaniels would just as soon forget. We don’t know what the future holds for these guys but there was certainly some entertainment value in a day that set them each on what should be a wild ride.

Discussion For December 17: Single Greatest Qb Seasons

Luis Alberto — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:34:54 -0500

So, I'm always hoping to get on here and write something, but my day job keeps me fairly busy - as does my evening routine of lounging on the couch. In lieu of an article, I've decided to start an interactive discussion.

I'll start a topic, give a brief opinion of my own, and, hopefully, anyone with an opinion will throw in a comment.

Topic for today - best single season by a quarterback. For the sake of this conversation, let's say any season after 1975 is eligible. Also, you rate them based on your definition of "best". If you think "best" means a player who wins, than use that as your basis. If you think stats are the only barometer - then, by all means, stats it is.

My vote goes to Dan Marino's 1984 season. He set two of the more incredible records with 5,084 yards and 48 TDs. The TD record has fallen -twice- since, and players have flirted with the yardage record, so we tend to forget just how incredible these records were. To put these records in perspective, here are some facts:

When he broke the yardage record, only one other player had thrown for even 4,500 yards. (Dan Fouts threw for 4,715 in 1980 and 4,802 in 1981. Neil Lomax threw for 4,614 in the same year Marino broke the record)

He did it before the league was as pass happy as it has been in the last 10-15 years. Of the 20 all-time single season yardage seasons, 11 occurred after 1994. That doesn't sound like many, but if you factor in that 3 of the 9 that took place before 1994 were by Dan the Man himself, you start to get the idea.
By the way, the other 6 top 20 seasons were by Warren Moon (he did it twice with the Houston Oilers' aesthetically pleasing run and shoot of the early nineties), Dan Fouts (twice), Neil Lomax and the immortal Lynn Dickey.

Although it's been broken twice, the TD record is even more incredible. He broke the record with his 37th TD pass - and went on to throw another dozen. In other words, he was throwing TDs as part of the flow of the game - rather than chasing a record (as Manning and Brady were doing).

After he broke the TD record, the next player to break 40 TDs was, well, Marino in 1986 (44 TDs). Nobody threw 40 again until Kurt Warner in 1999 (41 TDs).

And, by the way, the Dolphins went 14-2 and reached the Super Bowl that year.

Now, let's hear your thought. Which QB had the single greatest season ever.

College Football: Which Programs Produce the Most Starting NFL Quarterbacks?

Luis Alberto — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 10:01:20 -0400

At the beginning of the football season, I did an analysis of where all of the quarterbacks in the NFL went to college. What I found was, for the most part, fairly random. The schools that produce the current NFL quarterbacks ranged from the classic (USC, Michigan, Miami) to the not quite so expected (Alabama State, Akron).

However, many things have changed since I wrote that article, so I've decided to update it—at least with regards to the starters.

I'm going to break this analysis into three parts.

1) Players that are their teams' presumed starters as of today (3/21/2008). This could change between now and the beginning of the season. Refer to "2008 Presumed Starters" below.

2) I'll sprinkle in players that have a good chance of starting a handful of games becomes of the starter's tenuous hold on the starting job. An example of this is Joey Harrington in Atlanta. As of right now, he looks like the starter—but there is likely another veteran on the roster that will start a few games, even if they do pick up Matt Ryan. This is list is "2008 High-Probablity Replacements." This does not factor in injuries to a starter.

3) The third is a list of the three rookies that I'm guessing have a chance of playing 2008. Those are Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Brian Brohm. "2008 Potential Rookie Starter".

So, here we go.

The alma maters for the presumed starters in 2008, once again, yield very scattered results. The 32 presumed 2008 starters represent 30 universities. Only Oregon (Kellen Clemens and Joey Harrington, neither of whom have a stronghold on the position) and USC (Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart) have at two quarterbacks starting in the NFL.

The interesting thing about Oregon is that neither one of those players was the team's starter in early 2007. Harrington took over after Vick was incarcerated and Clemens, a rookie in 2007, took over for a largely ineffective Chad Pennington.

Other interesting notes about the presumed crop of starters:

Heading into the 2007 season, Marshall had two quarterbacks (Pennington and Byron Leftwich) at the top of their teams' presumptive depth charts. Heading into 200, they don't have any.
The list of 2008 starters' colleges include Alabama State, Alcorn State, Central Washington, East Carolina, Eastern Illinois, Louisiana-Lafayette, Miami Ohio, San Jose State, and Vanderbilt.
More traditional programs like Miami, Florida State, Georgia, Notre Dame, UCLA, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, and many others have none.
In the 80s the University of Miami produced Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, and Vinnie Testaverde. Now, Miami of Ohio has more starting NFL quarterbacks then the U.
The breakdown among the major conferences is as follows: SEC and Pac-10 (seven each), ACC (three), Big East and Big Ten (two each) and the Big 12 (one). However, Matt Hasselbeck was a member of the Big East when he played, so you can make the case that the Big East has three and the ACC has two.
The Pac-10 and ACC make up 44 percent of all of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. And none of the SEC schools have more than one starter. That's seven players from 7 (out of 12) schools.
In case you're wondering, the five SEC colleges without a starter are Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and South Carolina.

If you sprinkle in the 15 other players that I think have a very good chance to start, you suddenly have Michigan leading the pack with 3 quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Brian Griese, and Todd Collins). Purdue (adding Kyle Orton to Drew Brees) and Cal (Aaron Rogers and Kyle Boller) are the only other schools that would now have two starters.

The interesting thing about the Michigan situation is that it is not too far-fetched that those three players could be their teams' starters for large portions of the season. Todd Collins did a great job in injury relief last year and Brian Griese is backing up the historically ineffective Rex Grossman. It is important to point out that Purdue and Michigan both jumped on this list because of Rex Grossman's situation. Orton and Griese are probably both going to get some playing time due to Grossman's, and then each other's, ineffectiveness.

A few more notes:

With the additional players, the Pac-10 now has 10 players (Andrew Walter of ASU, Damon Huard of Washington, and Boller from Cal were added from the Pac-10).
Michigan's influx of players now puts the Big Ten, with eight quarterbacks, ahead of the SEC, who added nobody. The players added by the Big 10 were the aforementioned Michigan and Purdue players, plus Drew Stanton from Michigan State, Brooks Bollinger from Wisconsin, and Troy Smith from Ohio State.
The new scenario would have 7 out of the 10 PAC 10 schools with a starting quarterback in the NFL. The 4 without one would be UCLA, Washington State (with Drew Bledsoe's retirement) and Arizona.

Adding in the rookies would give BC and Louisville two starting quarterbacks each. Although, Chris Redman's career is on borrowed time. In fact, there's a very good chance that Chris Redman will be one step closer to the trash heap because of one of the three rookie quarterbacks I mention. If the Falcons draft Matt Ryan, then you have to figure Chris Redman is no better than the third-string quarterback by the middle of the year, and probably out once the season ends.

So. as a conclusion, I guess I would say that, if you look at schools individually, the results are very scattered. Alcorn State has more starting quarterbacks than Notre Dame. However, consider that the SEC and Pac-10 will probably represent 14 day-one starters. And, the Big Ten has a chance to have as many as eight at some point in the year.

The power conferences rule the roost. But, while the Drew Hensons, Brian Grieses and Tom Bradys of the world were battling for playing time in Ann Arbor, players like Jay Cutler and David Garrard were able to learn on the field—without the competition just to get on the field—and establish themselves into NFL-caliber players. I don't know what works in the end. But it's fun trying to figure it out.

2008 Presumed Starters

Buffalo Bills – Trent Edwards - Stanford

Miami Dolphins – John Beck - BYU

New England Patriots – Tom Brady - Michigan

New York Jets – Kellen Clemens - Oregon

Baltimore Ravens - Steve McNair - Alcorn State

Cincinnati Bengals – Carson Palmer - USC

Cleveland Browns – Derek Anderson - Oregon State

Pittsburgh Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger - Miami (Ohio)

Houston Texans – Matt Schaub - Virginia

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning - Tennessee

Jacksonville Jaguars – David Garrard - East Carolina

Tennessee Titans – Vince Young - Texas

Denver Broncos – Jay Cutler - Vanderbilt

Kansas City Chiefs – Brodie Croyle - Alabama

Oakland Raiders – JaMarcus Russell - LSU

San Diego Chargers – Phillip Rivers - NC State

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo - Eastern Illinois

New York Giants – Eli Manning - Mississippi

Philadelphia Eagles – Donovan McNabb - Syracuse

Washington Redskins – Jason Campbell - Auburn

Chicago Bears – Rex Grossman - Florida

Detroit Lions - Jon Kitna - Central Washington

Green Bay Packers – Aaron Rogers - Cal

Minnesota Vikings – Tavaris Jackson - Alabama State

Atlanta Falcons - Joey Harrington - Oregon

Carolina Panthers – Jake Delhomme - Louisiana - Lafayette

New Orleans Saints – Drew Brees - Purdue

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jeff Garcia - San Jose State

Arizona Cardinals – Matt Leinart - USC

St. Louis Rams – Marc Bulger - West Virginia

San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith - Utah

Seattle Seahawks – Matt Hasselback - BC

2008 - High-Probability Replacements

Oakland Raiders - Andrew Walter - Arizona State

Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn - ND

Chicago Bears - Brian Griese - Michigan

Minnesota Vikings - Brooks Bollinger - Wisconsin

New York Jets - Chad Pennington - Marshall

Atlanta Falcons - Chris Redman - Louisville

Kansas City Chiefs - Damon Huard - Washington

Detroit Lions - Drew Stanton - Michigan State

Miami Dolphins - Josh McCown - Sam Houston State

Buffalo Bills - JP Losman - Tulane

Baltimore Ravens - Kyle Boller - Cal

San Francisco 49ers - Shaun Hill - Maryland

Washington Redskins - Todd Collins - Michigan

Chicago Bears - Kyle Orton - Purdue

Baltimore Ravens - Troy Smith - Ohio State

2008 Potential Rookie Starters

Rookie - Matt Ryan - BC

Rookie - Brian Brohm - Louisville

Rookie - Joe Flacco - Delaware

The Tom Brady-Peyton Manning Debate: Fuel to the Fire

Luis Alberto — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 08:32:22 -0400

Brady vs Manning. The debate rages on. Last year, after the Super Bowl, there was article after article about why Peyton was better. Now, 50 touchdowns and an undefeated regular season later, everyone is on the "Brady is better" bandwagon.

Me. Not sure. To me this is like deciding between Elisha Cuthbert and Angelina Jolie. I'm not qualified to make the argument on either side.

The thing that I find interesting is how, when making the argument for one or the other, we see what we want to see. We back into our arguments.

So, this article is going to sound somewhat anti-Brady. I'm not anti-Brady. I think he's one of the best quarterbacks ever. I just think there are some major disconnects in some of the arguments that are made in his favor. Keep in mind that I live in Massachusetts and have heard all of the arguments as to why Brady is better. Some are accurate and some aren't. Even some of the ones that are accurate are somewhat inconsistent.

Argument in Brady's favor: Tom Brady is considered as clutch as they come.

Facts: Tom Brady is famous for the 4th quarter drive to win the big game. However, in the last two playoff games that the Patriots lost, Tom Brady has had the ball in his hands with time expiring and a chance to win the game. The results were an interception against the Colts and a turnover on downs against the Giants. Go back one more year and you have a big interception in the red zone in a playoff game returned for a TD by Champ Bailey.

And yet, to this day, we consider Brady clutch. Why? Because once he came through a few times, we stopped paying attention to the times where he didn't.

Now the "choker." Peyton Manning got the reputation that he couldn't win the big game. First with his games against Florida and then with the Colts. But, again, our eyes see what we want them to see.

After the Colts bowed out against the Chargers this year, the talk around Boston (where I live) were the two interceptions thrown by "Sey"-ton. Not the 400+ yards or 3 touchdowns in what amounted to a heroic performance. Or the fact that both interceptions went through or off the hands of the intended receiver.

Our eyes see what we want them to see. We wait for Peyton to choke and Brady to come through in the clutch.

Brady came back the next week and threw three interceptions against those same Chargers. General synopsis: the interceptions don't tell the story since the Pats won the game.

Argument: The loss against the Giants wasn't Tom Brady's fault. His line didn't give him any time.

Facts: Two years ago, the Colts lost a playoff game to the Steelers. The Colts were unable to give Manning any time and he was, essentially ineffective. However, some people who saw both games say Peyton choked. Something doesn't make sense there. We see what we want to see. Neither quarterback was responsible for their team's loss.

Argument: Now that Brady has thrown 50 TDs in a season, he has surpassed Peyton.

Facts: The reaction when Peyton broke the record was that numbers don't matter. Now, all of a sudden, they do. Interesting. The fact is that Tom Brady broke his personal record by 22 TDs and had never previously thrown more than 30 TDs. If numbers continue to be the argument, Brady doesn't win.....yet.

Argument: Brady has now proven what he would have done if he had great receivers his entire career - like Peyton has.

Facts: This one may be true. But, there is one thing to keep in mind. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are great receivers. The question becomes - would they have been great receivers if they didn't have Peyton. It's a very valid question - and it may be unfair to the two receivers. Yes, they were both first round picks. But, go look at recent drafts. Many, many, many receivers are taken in the first round. And, it seems, most don't pan out. It's a matter of the chicken and the egg. Would Reggie Wayne have been Troy Williamson if he didn't have Peyton?

You could actually, if you wanted to, turn this argument around and ask why Brady wasn't able to turn someone like Bethel Johnson into a better player. Of course, that argument goes out the window when you see what Welker did this year (but was that because of Brady or Moss).

The final point on this argument is that Randy Moss has been exceptional at getting his quarterbacks to have career years. Randall Cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper all SHATTERED career highs when playing with Moss. Again, did Brady's skill lead to Moss' success or did Moss' skill lead to Brady's? Probably a little of both, but worth thinking about. Moss has had success without Brady. Harrison and Wayne have not had success without Manning - they've never played with anyone else.

I'll say it again. We see what we want to see. When Manning threw 2 interceptions against the Chargers in the playoffs this year the word around New England was that he choked. Never mind that he threw for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. The next week, Brady threw 3 interceptions against the same Chargers. The argument there was that the interceptions were the receivers' faults. Here's on of Peyton's interceptions from that game - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uByh47EPoro . The other went through Reggie Wayne's hands.

I know this article won't be popular with Patriots fans. But, when judging the better of these two players, I think it's important to be objective. There's a very good chance you'll still end up at the same conclusion.

One more thing. I don't understand why we have to criticize one of these players at the expense of the other. The're both future hall of famers that will be considered among the top 5 in history.

Which Colleges Really Produce the Best NFL QBs?

Luis Alberto — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 07:05:20 -0400

When you think of the storied programs of college football, you think of Michigan, Notre Dame, USC etc... So, logic would tell you that they would produce the most NFL talent and, therefore, the most NFL quarterbacks. But, every year I watch the draft and hear the names of qb's called from some less traditional schools (Oregon, Cal, Fresno State), so I decided to put the so called logic to the test.

I went and looked at which college current nfl qb's attended. I included any qb on the depth charts of footballguys.com as of 8/28/2007 - some have since been released.

What did we find:

No one school jumped out immediately. 10 schools had 3 quarterbacks in the NFL. Those were Washington, USC, Tulane, Oregon, Michigan, Miami, Marshall, Fresno State, Florida, and Boston Colllege. That's a pretty eclectic list. That's 3 PAC 10 schools, 2 Conference USA schools, and 2 ACC schools. The other 3 are from the Big 10, WAC, and SEC.

14 schools had 2 qb's. Those were Wisconsin, Cal, Akron, Utah, Texas, Purdue, Oregon State, Miami of Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Iowa State, Indiana, Florida A & M, Florida State and Georgia.

If we break this down by conference, the PAC-10 leads the way with 15. Followed by the SEC (13), Big-10 (12), the WAC and Conference USA each with 11. The Big 12 only has 6; one less than the Big East and MAC and 3 less than the acc.

The numbers for starters are even more scattered. Only one school, USC, has multiple current starters in the NFL. Those are Heisman trophy winners Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer. (Marshall had 2 until Byron Leftwich's demotion and release) 30 schools have one starter in the nfl. The SEC had the most starters with 6. Followed by the PAC-10 (4), ACC, Conference USA, and Big 10 (all with 3). The Big East has 2 - that's the same amount as the MAC, WAC, and SWAC.

There are two conclusions I would draw from this information.

1) USC produces the most NFL qb's. I don't know where John David Booty projects in the NFL draft, but if we assume he'll be an NFL starter in the next three years, USC would have 3 starters while no other team (outside of maybe Michigan with, potentially, Henne and Brady) having more than 1.

2) QB's probably choose schools where they'll have an opportunity to play. Jay Cutler was obviously good enough to play at Florida or Georgia....but he chose Vanderbilt. I don't know why he did that - it may have been for academic reasons - but I would guess that the opportunity to get extensive playing time (in what amounts to an NFL audition) factored into his decision.

Some other notes:

The top 6 schools in the current (as of 9/2) AP poll have a starter (or, in one case, soon to be starter) in the NFL. USC (Leinart, Palmer), LSU (JaMarcus Russell - not yet a starter), West Virginia (Bulger), Texas (V Young) and Michigan (Brady)

The only school in the current top 10 with zero qb's in the NFL is Oklahoma (No. 9 Virginia Tech has only the suspended Michael Vick). Louisville has only Chris Redman who is on the Falcons for now....but is not assured of a spot.

Of the Top 25, 8 schools (Oklahoma, UCLA, Rutgers, Nebraska, Arkansas, TCU, Hawaii, Texas A & M) don't have a quarterback in the nfl.
Notre Dame only has one QB in the NFL - Brady Quinn. Steve Buerlein was the last serviceable NFL QB from Notre Dame - playing 15 seasons for 6 teams and throwing for a league leading 4,436 yards and 36 TDs in 1999. Rick Mirer flames out as the number 2 pick in the draft and Ron Powlus never materialized into an NFL level college player.
The last 15 Super Bowls have been won by QB's from Michigan (3 - Tom Brady), UCLA (3 Troy Aikman), Stanford (2 John Elway), Tennessee (2006 Peyton Manning), Miami-Ohio (2005 Ben Rothlesberger), Florida State (2002 Brad Johnson), Fresno State (2000 Trent Dilfer), Northern Iowa (1999 Kurt Warner), Southern Miss (1996 Brett Favre) and BYU (1994 Steve Young).
No college has had multiple different QB's win the Super Bowl in the last 15 years
Of the last 15 Heisman Trophy winners, 9 have been quarterbacks. Only Carson Palmer has gone on to NFL greatness. The jury is still out on Matt Leinart (a starter in AZ) and Troy Smith (who barely made the Ravens). Chris Weinke and Danny Wuerffel managed to stick areound the NFL for awhile - albeit with unspactular production and usually as back-ups. Jason White, Eric Crouch, Charlie Ward, and Gino Torretta had little or no NFL career. In fairness, Charlie Ward did not even try - becoming the point guard of the NY Knicks instead.
If you look at Heisman winners all the way back to 1970, only Palmer has really become a star. Testaverde, Flutie, and Jim Plunkett had decent careers. Pat Sullivan, Andre Ware, and Ty Detmer made little impact in the NFL.

The following contains:

A sorted List of number of qb's by college

A sorted list of number of starters by college

A sorted list of number of qb's by conference

A sorted list of number of starters by conference

Every NFL qb and their college

Thanks to footballguys.com

1. A sorted List of number of qb's by college

School QB's

Washington 3
USC 3
Tulane 3
Oregon 3
Michigan 3
Miami 3
Marshall 3
Fresno State 3
Florida 3
Boston College 3
Wisconsin 2
Cal 2
Akron 2
Utah 2
Texas 2
Purdue 2
Oregon State 2
Miami of Ohio 2
Louisiana Tech 2
Iowa State 2
Indiana 2
Florida A & M 2
Florida State 2
Georgia 2
Wyoming 1
Georgetown 1
Grambling 1
Harvard 1
Houston 1
Idaho State 1
Boise State 1
BYU 1
Kentucky 1
Louisiana - Lafayette 1
Eastern Michigan 1
Louisville 1
LSU 1
Auburn 1
Arkansas State 1
Eastern Illinois 1
Arizona State 1
Michigan State 1
Middle Tennessee State 1
Mississippi 1
NC State 1
Nevada 1
Norther Iowa 1
Northern Illinois 1
Northwestern 1
Northwestern State - Louisiana 1
Notre Dame 1
Ohio State 1
Oklahoma 1
Alcorn State 1
East Carolina 1
Penn State 1
Pitt 1
Princeton 1
Connecticut 1
Sam Houston State 1
San Jose State 1
South Carolina 1
Southern Miss 1
Stanford 1
Syracuse 1
Tarleton State 1
Tennessee 1
Coastal Carolina 1
Toledo 1
Alabama State 1
Tulsa 1
UAB 1
Alabama 1
Clemson 1
UTEP 1
Vanderbilt 1
Virginia 1
Virginia Tech 1
Central Washington 1
Weber State 1
West Virginia 1
William and Mary 1
Central Florida 1

2. A sorted list of number of starters by college

School Starting QB's
USC 2
West Virginia 1
Alabama State 1
Alcorn State 1
Auburn 1
Boston College 1
Central Washington 1
East Carolina 1
Eastern Illinois 1
Florida 1
Indiana 1
Louisiana - Lafayette 1
LSU 1
Marshall 1
Miami of Ohio 1
Michigan 1
Mississippi 1
NC State 1
Oregon 1
Purdue 1
San Jose State 1
Southern Miss 1
Syracuse 1
Tennessee 1
Texas 1
Tulane 1
Akron 1
Utah 1
Vanderbilt 1
Virginia 1
Washington 1

3. A sorted list of number of qb's by conference
Conference Total QB's
Pac-10 15
SEC 13
Big-10 12
WAC 11
C-USA 11
acc 9
Big East 7
MAC 7
Big 12 6
SWAC 3
Sun Belt 3
MEAC 3
Ivy 2
Big Sky 2
Southland 2
Moutain West 2
Patriot 2
Great Northwest 1
A-10 1
Red River 1
Big South 1
Ohio Valley 1
Missouri Valley 1
Independent 1

4. A sorted list of number of starters by conference

Conference Starters

SEC 6
Pac-10 4
acc 3
C-USA 3
Big-10 3
WAC 2
SWAC 2
MAC 2
Big East 2
Great Northwest 1
Big 12 1
Ohio Valley 1
Sun Belt 1
Moutain West 1

5. Every NFL qb and their college
Tom Brady - Michigan
Matt Cassell - USC
Matt Gutierrez - Idaho State
Testaverde - Miami
JP Losman - Tulane
Craig Nall - Northwestern State - Louisiana
Trent Edwards - Stanford
Chad Pennington - Marshall
Kellen Clements - Oregon
Marques Tuiasasopo - Washington
Brett Ratliffe - Utah
Trent Green - Indiana
Cleo Lemon - Arkansas State
John Beck - BYU
Carson Palmer - USC
Doug Johnson - Florida
Jeff Rowe - Nevada
Jeff Smith - Georgetown
Ben Rothlesberger - Miami of Ohio
Charlie Batch - Eastern Michigan
Brian St. Pierre - Boston College
Charlie Frye - Akron
Derek Anderson - Oregon State
Brady Quinn - Notre Dame
Ken Dorsey - Miami
Steve McNair - Alcorn State
Kyle Boller - Cal
Troy Smith - Ohio State
Peyton Manning - Tennessee
Jim Sorgi - Wisconsin
Josh Betts - Miami of Ohio
Byron Leftwich - Marshall
David Gerrard - East Carolina
Quinn Gray - Florida A & M
Matt Schaub - Virginia
Sage Rosenfels - Iowa State
Jared Zabransky - Boise State
Kerry Collins - Penn State
Vince Young - Texas
Tim Rattay - Louisiana Tech
Brody Croyle - Alabama
Damon Huard - Washington
Jeff Terrell - Princeton
Casey Printers - Florida A & M
Jay Cutler - Vanderbilt
Patrick Ramsey - Tulane
Preston Parsons - Northern Illinois
Darrel Hackney - UAB
JaMarcus Russell - LSU
Andrew Walter - Arizona State
Josh McCown - Sam Houston State
Daunte Culpepper - Central Florida
Phillip Rivers - NC State
Billy Volek - Fresno State
Charlie Whitehurst - Clemson
Tony Romo - Eastern Illinois
Brad Johnson - Florida State
Richard Bartel - Tarleton State
Matt Moore - Oregon State
Jason Campbell - Auburn
Gibran Hamdan - Indiana
Mark Brunell - Washington
Jordan Palmer - UTEP
Todd Collins - Michigan
Eli Manning - Mississippi
Tim Hasselbeck - Boston College
Anthony Wright - South Carolina
Jared Lorenzen - Kentucky
Donovan McNabb - Syracuse
Kevin Kolb - Houston
AJ Feeley - Oregon
Jon Kitna - Central Washington
Dan Orlovsky - Connecticut
Drew Stanton - Michigan State
Rex Grossman - Florida
Brian Griese - Michigan
Kyle Orton - Purdue
Chris Leak - Florida
Tavaris Jackson - Alabama State
Brooks Bollinger - Wisconsin
Kelly Holcombe - Middle Tennessee State
tyler Thigpen - Coastal Carolina
Brett Favre - Southern Miss
Aaron Rogers - Cal
Paul Thompson - Oklahoma
Drew Brees - Purdue
Jaime Martin - Weber State
Tyler Palco - Pitt
Jake Delhomme - Louisiana - Lafayette
David Carr - Fresno State
Chris Weinke - Florida State
Brett Basanez - Northwestern
Michael Vick - Virginia Tech
Joey Harrington - Oregon
Chris Redman - Louisville
DJ Shockley - Georgia
Casey Bramlet - Wyoming
Chris Simms - Texas
Jeff Garcia - San Jose State
Luke McCown - Louisiana Tech
Marc Bulger - West Virginia
Bruce Gradkowski - Toledo
Bruce Eugene - Grambling
Gus Frerotte - Tulsa
Ryan Fitzgerald - Harvard
Brock Berlin - Miami
Alex Smith - Utah
Trent Dilfer - Fresno State
Luke Getsy - Akron
Shaun Hill - Tulane
Matt Leinart - USC
Kurt Warner - Norther Iowa
Lang Campbell - William and Mary
Matt Hasselback - Boston College
Seneca Wallace - Iowa State
David Greene - Georgia
David Devine - Marshall

NFL Draft: History Shows Which Colleges Produce the Most First-Round Talent

Luis Alberto — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 07:02:53 -0400

Miami has the most 1st round picks since 2000 with an ungodly 25. After Miami is Ohio State and Florida State (each with 13), Texas (12), Wisconsin, Tennessee, Penn State, Oklahoma, USC and Georgia (all with 8).
Texas has the most top 10 picks with 7. Miami has 5. Behind Miami is USC and FSU (each with 4), Penn State, Auburn, NC State and Ohio State (all with 3).
Texas has the most top 5 picks with 5 (Vince Young, Cedric Benson, Leonard Davis, Mike Williams and Quentin Jammer). Penn State has 3 (Levi Brown, Courtney Brown, Lavar Arrington) - two of those were from the 2000 draft. Auburn (Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown - both RB's picked back to back in 2005), USC (Carson Pamer and Reggie Bush), NC State (Mario Williams and Philip Rivers) and Miami (Andre Johnson and Sean Taylor) each have 2.
Texas can get players to the next level, but they don't necessarily succeed - especially the offensive linemen. Leonard Davis and Mike Williams have both been released by their original teams. Vince Young is a star in waiting. Quentin Jammer is a starter in SD, but many feel he is overrated. The jury is still out on Benson, but early results aren't promising.
Two of the three Penn State players didn't really live up to their draft status. Courtney Brown was a dud and is currently without a team (to my knowledge). LaVarr Arrington managed a couple of good years, but nothing worthy of his draft status. Levi Brown is a rookie in 2007.
USC's and Miami's top five picks appear to be stars
NC State's top 5 picks are from the last three years.
It's difficult to get a read on Auburn's players......both are looking iffy right now, even though their each a starting RB on their respective teams.
The list of teams with multiple first rounders has very few teams outside of the top conference (excluding ND) in the country. No team outside of the major conferences has had more than 2 first round picks. Fresno State, Marshall, Utah, UAB, Tulane, and Jackson State each had 2 first round picks in this time period. Fresno State (David Carr) and Utah (Alex Smith) each had a player picked number 1 overall during this time period.
Fresno State had the 1st pick of the 1st round in 2003 (Carr) and the last pick of the first round in 2005 (Mankins)
Both of Tulane's first round picks were QB's taken in the second half of the first round. JP Losman was selected 22nd in 2004 and Patrick Ramsey was the last pick of the 1st round in 2002.
Both of Marshall's first round picks since 2000 have been QB's. Chad Pennington was selected 18th in 2000 by the Jets. Byron Leftwich was selected 7th by the Jags in 2003.
Both of Utah's 1st round picks came in the top 10. Jordan Gross was the Panther first pick in 2003 at number 8. The 49ers took Smith number 1 in 2005.
Utah is the only school outside of the major conferences to have multiple top 10 picks. No school outside of the major conferences has had multiple top 5 picks.
Only TCU (Ladanian Tomlinson), Utah and Fresno State have had any top 5 pick while being outside of the major conferences.
Notre Dame has had two first round picks since 2000 - Brady Quinn (no. 22 in 2007) and Jeff Faine (No 21 in 2003). Both were selected by the Browns.
The SEC has had the most first round picks since 2000 with 69. Followed by the Big 10 (48), ACC (45), PAC 10 (31) and Big 12 (30). Based on the conference to which each school belongs in 2007 (many of the ACC's picks would actually belong to the Big East)
The Big East has only had 8 first round picks since 2000. However, many of the first round picks that are attributed to the ACC were for teams that were in the Big East at the time (Virginia Tech, Miami, and BC).
The SEC has had the most top 10 picks with 23. Followed by the ACC (15), the Big 10 and Big 12 (12 each) and the PAC 10 with 9. The Mountain West had 4 - Smith and Gross from Utah, Urlacher from New Mexico and LT from TCU.
The list for conferences with most top 5 picks is as follows: SEC (11), Big 10 (8), ACC and Big 12(7 each).
The PAC 10 only has three - 2 Heisman Trophy winners from USC (Palmer and Bush) and Joey Harrington from Oregon.
The Big East only has 3 top 10 picks (Pacman Jones from WVU, Amobi Okoye from Louisville, and Larry Fitgerald) and one top 5 (Fitzgerald). Again, many of the Miami, Va Tech and BC players were in the Big East at the time they were picked. But these numbers don't bode well for the current schools in the Big East.
The WAC has only had one top 5 (or top 10) player, but it was the number 1 pick from the 2003 draft, David Carr.
Miami has had 4 Tight Ends drafted in the first round since 2000. No other school has had more than 1.
Miami was either 1st or 2nd in every position except quarterback and kicker. Sebastian Janikowski was the only kicker drafted in the first round during this time period.
Defensive Linemen were, by far, the most frequest first rounders (60 players taken). The totals by position were: D-Line (60); DB (45); WR (37); O-Line (30); RB (24); LB (23); QB (21); TE (13); Kicker (1)
The fact there were 21 QB's taken in the first round indicates that, basically, 2 out of every 3 teams have entered a draft since 2000 in search of a franchise qb.

How Good Is Randy Moss?

Luis Alberto — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 06:50:14 -0400

I've always been a big fan of Randy Moss - going all the way back to watching the highlights of him sprinting through D1-AA defenses with those green and white striped Marshall socks. Then I started thinking about all of the facts about Randy Moss and how good he has been throughout his career - except for that brief stint in Oakland.

(Sidebar - doesn't it almost seem like the stint in Oakland should be able to be edited out of his resume? I mean, if you can find a way to put Animal House on TBS, there has to be a way to not allow that period onto his profile. It's almost like he was blackout drunk at a frat party......he just wasn't himself.)

Here are some facts to chew on:

Moss has 124 TDs in 10 years. That's more than halfway to Jerry Rice's record of 197. Moss probably won't play 20 years (and to be fair, Rice had 131 after 10 years. But....we're talking about Jerry Rice here)
Moss has 12,193 yards. Hall of Famer Michael Irvin had 11,904 in his 12 year career. Oh...and Irvin had 65 TDs......just over half of Moss's total.
Most WRs blossom in their 3rd year and look completely lost as rookies. In his rookie season, Moss had 1,300 yards and 17 TDs. Rice had 900 yards and 3 TDs. Irvin 650/5; Harrison 800/8; Chad Johnson 300/1.
The only rookie who came close in recent years was, believe it or not, Terry Glenn with 1100 yards and 6 TDs.
In 1999, after getting absolutely torched by Moss in 1998 (his rookie year) the Green Bay Packers selected defensive backs in the 1st 3 rounds and another in the 7th. Think about that, they went into the 1999 draft with the specific intention of finding a way to stop Randy Moss - who was a rookie the year before!!!!!

Probably the most impressive piece of his resume is how much better he made each of his quarterbacks. In hindsight, Brady's incredible season seemed almost inevitable when you combined one of the best QBs of all time with Moss' obscene talents. Here's a comparison of each of Moss' QBs throughout his career and their average stats with him and without him.

(Sidebar - I omitted the Raider years. It's my blog and, if The Sopranos can be on A & E, than I can edit the stats for my blog.)

Let's go in chronological order starting with Randall Cunningham.

(Sidebar - by the way, can anyone have lucked into a better situation than Randall did in 1998. He was out of the league in 1996 and the MIN backup in 1997. Then in 1998 Brad Johnson gets hurt and Randall comes in and, 10 times per game, he closes his eyes and throws the ball about a mile in the air - to nobody in particular - and Moss would casually sprint to where the ball was going, jump higher than anyone else, and Cunningham gets an All Pro year out of it. At the age of 35 and 6 years removed from his prime. I hope he bought Moss a nice Xmas gift that year.)

Randall Cunningham (1 season)
Average year:
w/out Moss
3,200 yards - 22 TDs
w/Moss
3,700 yards - 34 TDs (13th best single season total)

Jeff George (1 season)
Average year:
w/out Moss
220 yards per game - 17 TDs
w/Moss
282 yards per game - 23 TDs (and he only started 10 games - over 16 games this would project to 37 which would have been the 9th best ever)

Daunte Culpepper (4 full seasons)
Average year:
TOTAL w/out Moss
3,800 yards - 20 INTs, 13 TDs (again, that's his TOTALS for the 3 years since he played with Moss)
w/Moss
3,700 yards per season - 26 TDs (including 39 in 2004 - 6th best of all-time, 33 in 200 - 15th best)

And, of course...

Tom Brady (1 season)
Average year:
Average w/out Moss
3,600 yards - 25 TDs (obviously, Brady was already one of the best QBs ever before Moss came along. But, his career high in TDs was 28 - which he did in 2004 and 2002. That's the 55th best total of all time)
w/Moss
4,900 yards - 50 TDs (The 50 TDs is, obviously, a new record. The 4,896 passing yards is second only to Dan Marino's 5,084 in 1984. Brady's previous high was 4,110 - goo for 47th)

Again, Brady was an outstanding player before Moss and you can't attribute all of the jump in his numbers to Moss......but he sure helped.

Of the 4 qbs, only Jeff George did not break his career high in TD passes when he played with Moss. And that's because he only started 10 games - projected out over 16 games he would have crushed his career high.

Cunningham broke his career high by 4. Brady by 22 (22!!!). Culpepper had 26 more tds in 2004 than he has since he left Moss.

This may all be a coincidence - or maybe Moss is just so freaking good that everyone around him benefits (unless you're wearing black and gold)