Bleacher Report - Articles by Timothy Davis

It’s Closing Time in the MLB...Or Is It?

Timothy Davis — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 20:15:35 -0400

Bringing closers into a game too early, or in a non-save situation, is, by far, the worst move that a manager can make in the major leagues.

It does a number of things when they give up a lot of runs or lose the game: it lowers the self esteem of the closer and the team moral (the team possibly feels they cannot trust the closer), upsets the fans (and who wants to do that?), and raises my fantasy stats (not the good kind of raise).

This year there have already been two examples of managers making this mistake: Lou Piniella bringing in Kerry Wood for the Chicago Cubs and Charlie Manuel bringing in Tom Gordon (who is currently the closer while Brad Lidge is on the DL) for the Philadelphia Phillies.

And it was Opening Day...or should I say Opening Week?

The Kerry Wood situation is the most puzzling to me because Lou Piniella’s biggest concern is the health of his players, especially Kerry Wood who has been on the DL more times than I am able to count (and I know how to use a calculator). Pinella’s goal is to get Wood’s arm strength up in the beginning of the year and then slowly move him to pitching in days close in session.

So why did he bring Wood into the game in the ninth inning when the score was 0-0?

There is no reason to bring in your stopper in this situation, especially when you’re not trying to use him in days that are close together at the beginning of the year. Is there some magical ball in the dugout that Pinella looks into to know that he’s not going to need Wood to close out Wednesday's game?

Charlie Manuel basically did the same thing, putting Gordon in in the ninth, except the score was 6-6. Gordon gave up five runs on four hits in 1/3 inning to the Nationals (no that’s not a typo), which, at the conclusion of the game, gave him a 135.00 ERA for the day/season.

I’m not just picking on these two baseball geniuses, but all managers in baseball. Last year there were two very distinct examples of how detrimental this idea is to a closer, namely Mariano Rivera and Joe Borowski.

April 27, 2007 the Yankees are losing to the Red Sox 7-4 and Rivera is warming up in the bullpen, probably doing side work. When the bottom of eighth finishes Rivera seems to be picking up his stuff to sit back down because he is probably done with his side work, but instead of sitting, he’s making his way out onto the field.

I know what you’re thinking, “Well they’ve probably used up a lot of their bullpen and Rivera was the only person left to finish out the game, even though there’s no chance for a save.”

This would be true except that Torre had only used three other pitchers besides the starter so far in the game, and the day before Torre used two of the same people he used in the current game. There are fresh arms in the pen.

Now you’re probably thinking, “He probably needed to get his work in. How many days has it been since he has pitched in a game?”

This is probably your best argument because it had been five days since the last time he threw in a live game situation, but this, in my opinion, is the worst idea I have ever heard of in my life!

So much can happen in a game—a ball hit up the middle can hit and injure the pitcher (ask Mark Prior, Matt Clement, or Roy Oswalt), a pitcher can get hurt backing up a play (ask Kyle Farnsworth), or a pitcher can be attacked by bugs (ask Joba Chamberlin).

There is no reason, in my opinion, to risk putting your pitcher in a live game situation when you can easily have him pitch in a simulated game behind a pitching net.

Why, also, would you want your biggest rival to see your closer more than they already do?

They had to use Rivera in almost every single possible way in May to get his confidence back. Yes, even Marino Rivera, arguably the greatest closer of all time, had to get his confidence back.

My theory is that they feel it’s an unimportant inning that they are pitching in, so they just work on a new pitch or a new slide step—almost what they do in Spring Training.

To prove the point of closers going into non-save situations nonchalantly I took a look at Mr. Borowski’s numbers last year and complied them into two different sections: the stats he received at the end of the year and the stats he would have received if he didn’t pitch in non-save situational games/innings.

2007, including the playoffs:

75 G, 71.2 IP, 40 ER, 45 SV, 60 K, 5.07 ERA

2007, excluding 10 games that had non-save situations:

66 G, 63 IP, 16 ER, 45 SV, 55 K, 2.29 ERA

Using these new numbers for comparison, there was only one player to have more saves then Mr. Borowski last year: Jose Valverde. His numbers were:

65 G, 64.1 IP, 19 ER, 47 SV, 78 K, 2.66 ERA

Also, still using the new numbers for comparison, there were only six full-time closers who had a better ERA than Borowski: J.J. Putz, Takashi Saito, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Manny Corpas, and Jeremy Accardo.

Some might say these numbers are skewed because every closer is going to go through bad outings all year. This is true, very true, but to go through 10 non-save situations where the closer gives up, on average, 2.4 earned runs per outing is a bit extreme.

Also, those of you questioning Borowski’s ability, last year he only gave up three runs in September (two runs in one outing and one run in the other outing) when the team was in a playoff push. The game in which he gave up the one run was a non-save situation.

Teams carry enough pitchers on their pitching staff that they could probably go without using their closer in non-save situations. I’m not saying they should only use their closers in save situations, but, as I have proven above, there have been many instances were it can come back to haunt the player, team, or manager.

By using Borowski—or any closer for that matter—in these non-save situations it has not only had an obvious strain on his numbers, but probably a mental strain on him too.

This would put a mental strain on any pitcher. He would probably start thinking to himself that he can’t get the job done, but in hindsight he is getting his job done.

Basically it is simple: Major league managers, don’t use your closer in non-save situations unless absolutely necessary. This will help team moral and player self esteem, keep the fans happy, and not ruin another fantasy year for me.

An Optimistic View of the Loveable Losers

Timothy Davis — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 19:56:35 -0400

Every year, it’s the same story with the Cubs, “This is the year!” But, alas, it always winds up not being the year; or should I say years?

It’s been 100 years since their last World Series title and that can cause problems for any franchise. I sometimes have to wonder when the word “ loveable” is going to be removed from their “loveable losers” nickname?

But I'm going to stay optimistic, because that’s what Cubs fans do, they stay positive no matter how appalling it looks.

It’s Lou Piniella’s second year as the head coach, and, if history tells us anything about “Sweet” Lou, it’s you don’t know what to expect.

If anything, Cub fans are hoping for a repeat of his 1987 and 2004 years when his teams improved going into his second year, not receded as they did in his 1994 campaign.

This year, Piniella knows the organization, city, and fans a lot better than he did last year.

The Lineup:

Piniella has all the pieces in place offensively, but the pitching is suspect, to say the least. The Cubs have a lot they need to improve upon, but it’s Piniella’s job to find the right mix, although the Cubs might add another ingredient or two.

If the anticipated deal with Baltimore for Brian Roberts goes through, the Cubs would have a new lead-off hitter and other adjustments to make.

Otherwise, Piniella said the lineup they went with on Saturday, March 22 is the one that will start the season with, but with one exception. He started Mike Fontenot at shortstop, and Ryan Theriot will be the Opening Day starter at short.

Here is the proposed lineup with a little bio about each player and predictions for the upcoming year:

1. Ryan Theriot (SS) He is finally getting his due.

Your shortstop doesn’t need to be a home-run machine or even win a batting title, just look at the last couple of World Series winners: Julio Lugo (‘07), David Eckstein ('06, '02), Juan Uribe (’05), Orlando Cabrera/Pokey Reese ('04), Alex Gonzalez ('03), and Tony Womack ('01).

He plays with heart, and I’ll take that any day over an overpaid and overrated guy, because even when things look the worst, he’s still going to go up to the plate or onto the field and give it his all.

He’s proved he is a winner at almost every level of play: high school, college, and the minors; now, he just has to prove that he can do it for a big league club. We’ll see how his numbers are in the field, considering this will be his first full-time gig.

PREDICTION: 111 runs, 5 HR, 68 RBI, .276 average, 39 stolen bases

2. Alfonso Soriano (LF) I think they should leave him in the leadoff spot, only because that’s where he feels most comfortable. He proved last year, when you move him around the order, his offensive numbers go down dramatically.

Last year, when he batted first, his numbers were 92/33/69/.308 in 542 at bats; batting third, his numbers were 5/0/1/.179 in 28 at bats. He only received one hit batting eighth and none while batting fifth.

This is enough proof to leave him in the leadoff spot, even though he’s not your prototypical leadoff man because of his power potential.

Also, one can only hope he feels comfortable at home this year compared to last year (.274 average at home, .325 average on the road). And players also need to realize not to run on him. He had 19 assists in LF.

PREDICTION: 101 runs, 38 HR, 91 RBI, .282 average, 31 stolen bases

3. Derrek Lee (1B) Lee is probably the most overlooked guy at the first base position, considering he was sporting a .364 average with RISP in 2007.

His biggest problem, though, is falling behind in the count and getting in a pitcher's count. With a 0-2 count his average is .139, but every player has a weakness, and this is his.

Fielding surely isn't a weakness for Lee. He should win the gold glove every year. Hell, they should rename the first base gold glove after him.

Unlike Soriano, Lee has the opposite problem with playing on the road (.265) and at home (.371).

Expect big things from Lee this year. He’s coming off a sub-par/injury-plagued year, plus, his protection is expected to have a huge year, too.

PREDICTION: 119 runs, 33 HR, 109 RBI, .322 average, 11 stolen bases

4. Aramis Ramirez (3B) My friends and I call him “fat boy” because he used to be so bad at defense that we needed a nickname to call him when he screwed up.

Plus, I know he probably used to be the first one to hit the buffet after the game.

Offensively, he doesn’t have any holes, except in a 0-2 count (.111 average), which is great because he’ll have a lot of ducks on the pond in front of him this year.

His power numbers dropped off last year. I think he finally realized that he has to play the field decently, too. Putting forth that much effort in the field tired him out to where he couldn’t hit the ball as far, at least that’s my theory.

His numbers went up in the field, for once, posting a .972 fielding percentage; compared to .947 fielding percentage two years prior.

Look for his offensive and possibly his defensive numbers to return to normal this year.

PREDICTION: 98 runs, 36 HR, 122 RBI, .301 average, 0 stolen bases

5. Kosuke Fukudome (RF) Most Japanese players' numbers suffer when they make the trip across the Pacific, unless your name is Ichiro, and Fukudome will probably not be any different.

The seasons are longer, tougher, and hotter in America than in Japan. The Cubs don’t need him to be the player he was in Japan, hitting 30-plus home runs, they just need him to bring his solid defense, patience at the plate, incredible eye, and batting average with him.

The Cubs have the role players to hit the ball over the ivy-covered brick walls, they just need people in the lineup to back them up with a single or double, in case they don’t hit the big fly.

Predicting his numbers is pretty difficult, but I feel confident that he’ll have a decent first half and probably do better at home, and his numbers probably will drop come August.

PREDICTION: 78 runs, 11 HR, 71 RBI, .287 average (hopefully higher), nine stolen bases

6. Mark DeRosa (2B) The super utility man. Notice what I said there, utility man. I love DeRosa. I’m a huge fan, but I would love to see him in the utility role; he could keep the whole team fresh.

What this man is able to do, play at different positions day after day, and have such a great fielding percentage at each, is in itself amazing. He could still play 120 games at the utility position, while helping out the team in a way that no other player can.

Then again, when a Hall a Fame coach (Bobby Cox) says he wishes he could play him every day you don’t question it, or do you?

He does dramatically better at night, but the problem is, most of the Cubs' games are during the day. Last year, he was a slow starter, so don’t get too worried when his numbers aren't there at the end of May.

Plus, with the problems that he was having this spring, it might take him even longer to get “baseball ready.”

Having him bat sixth (30/5/33/.325) and playing second (43/8/45/.307) was great for his numbers last year, so hopefully, that will translate to this year. Needless to say, his numbers should rise dramatically with Geovany Soto hitting behind him.

PREDICTION: 79 runs, 15 HR (13 is his career high), 73 RBI, .283 average, two stolen bases

7. Geovany Soto (C) A lot of people are expecting a lot out of this kid, especially me.

He’s coming off his MVP season in AAA and a huge late-season call up by the Cubs. He has the promise to be one of the best young catchers in the league for years to come, but, first, he has to prove his worth in his first full season in the majors.

Don’t expect the numbers he put up in the minors, where he batted .353 with 26 home runs and 109 RBI, but expect decent numbers from a catcher.

I, a huge Cubs fan, originally had predicted his numbers 62/18/70/.277, but, after looking at his minor league numbers over the last six years, that prediction is way too high.

He only had one really good year in the minors, but, at the same time, when he was called up for 18 games last year, he posted 12/3/8/.389.

Maybe he finally “gets it” now, but he has a lot on his plate this year: learning the pitching staff, adjusting to MLB pitching, catching over 120 games, and everything else that a rookie has to deal with coming into the league.

Also, his spring numbers have been awful. Therefore, I’m lowering my expectations. (Hopefully, I’m wrong about these numbers).

PREDICTION: 59 runs, 15 HR, 68 RBI, .258 average, 0 stolen bases

8. Felix Pie (CF) How many times have you heard his name associated with the Cubs' future? I know, too many.

Right now, he’s probably not hearing anything along those lines, but, instead, as many jokes that can be made up using baseballs as a pun.

If there was someway to make him more patient at the plate, I think his numbers would skyrocket. He’s proven that, when he’s patient his BA, OBP, and HR go up.

Example: In 2007, Pie is sent down to work on his hitting and being, believe it or not, patient. In 55 games, he posts 51/9/43/.362. The year before, when he spent the year in AAA, he posted 78/15/57/.283 in 86 more games.

The numbers don't lie. Become more patient, and you’ll flourish. One can only hope that he can live up to half of his potential, and, hopefully, this will be the year of his coming out party, keyword hopefully. But don’t rule out an implosion, either.

PREDICTION: 71 runs, 9 HR, 49 RBI, .251 average (a bit high, but here’s hoping), 17 stolen bases

As you can see, the Cubs have it all offensively: speed, power, and average. It’s just a matter of mixing and using them all to full potential, especially the speed potential.

With all the speed they'll have on the base paths, which makes opposing pitchers unable to fully concentrate, it should play to their favor with better batting averages and more home runs.

Want proof? Look at the White Sox in their 2005 World Series campaign. Their leadoff man stole 59 bases by himself with a team total of 137. I’m predicting 109 from the starters of the Cubs this year, do you see the comparison?

The Bench:

The bench this year looks pretty promising, I’m not going to get into the specifics with each player, I’m just going to give a little background and bio:

Henry Blanco (C) Everybody that knows me, knows that I’m a huge fan of Henry’s but I’m just stating the facts here. His bat is not superb by any means (.233 career average), but this man is a back stop behind the plate. A little known fact, he has a bazooka attached to his neck, it’s his right arm!

Daryle Ward (1B, OF) He is a professional hitter. That’s all you really need to know about him. His approach to pitch hitting is quite possibly the best I’ve ever seen. He’s not an everyday guy, by any means, but when you need that late inning single or double, he’s the guy you call.

Mike Fontenot (2B, SS) He was teammates with Theriot on LSU when they won a couple of National Championships together. He’s just like Theriot too, will not hit for power, but will steal you a lot of bases. They have him listed at 5’8”, if you’ve ever seen him you know that’s not right; he uses his small stature in his favor at the plate all the time. Expect a firecracker off the bench that can leadoff or bat deep in the order, and just like Theriot, will play with heart.

Ronny Cedeno (SS, 3B, OF) He's just like Pie, seems to have a lot of promise, kills the ball in the minors (.355 [‘06], .359 [‘07]) but just can’t get it done in the majors (.245 [‘06], .203 [‘07]). One has to wonder what is wrong with these kids?

Reed Johnson (OF) The Cubs newly acquired talent. He’s been brought in to have a back up for when Pie implodes (and he probably will), and to hit lefties (.325 last year and .308 career). He will probably wind up being the everyday centerfielder before the season is through.

Matt Murton (OF) I honestly thought that Big Red was going to have the starting job this year in RF and he probably did too. He hasn’t done anything wrong to not get the job, but he also hasn’t done anything to set the world on fire either. He’s also a lefty specialist, but since they added Johnson to the mix and they are going to carry 12 pitchers, Murton will either be traded or let go; I think his three options to the minors are used up. This will be a sad day, in my opinion, because he’s a quality player that deserves a shot at a club.

The Pitching Staff:

The pitching staff, as I said before, is suspect, to say the least. Last year the biggest problem the whole staff had was getting on the same page at the same time. When two guys were struggling one guy was on fire and vice versa. This year there are a lot of question marks in the rotation, such as:

Can the whole rotation stay consistent?

Can or will Zambrano finally step up and be the big stopper this year?

Can Lilly pitch the way he did last year?

Can Marquis pitch the whole year the way he pitched the first month of last year?

Will Dempster have the stamina to pitch all year?

These are just a couple of the questions facing their starting rotation. This doesn’t even include the bullpen; they have a lot of questions too, such as:

Can Wood go a whole year without going on the DL?

Can Marmol be a beast again?

Is Marshall going to throw out of the pen?

Is Lieber going to be effective out of the pen?

Will Dempster be back in the pen?

Starting Rotation:

Here is the proposed rotation with a little bio about each player and predictions for the upcoming year. I’m not going to include WHIP in my predictions because it can sometimes an overrated stat:

Carlos Zambrano, is the “leader” of this staff. I say “leader” because last year he wasn’t the stopper he should have been, Lilly was.

Everyone knows that Zambrano is a head case and this is proof by his stats from last year: bases empty his ERA was 0.89, but with RISP his ERA was 10.66; but the biggest red flag was when the bases were loaded his ERA was 22.50 while the opposing hitters batted .417 against him. These are pretty intimidating numbers, but they’ve been this way his whole career: bases empty his ERA is 1.09, but with RISP his ERA is 8.58, and with bases loaded his ERA is 12.43.

It’s obvious that it’s easier to score runs on a guy when there are runners in scoring position, but his numbers are too skewed in one direction in comparison to other pitchers in the league. The Cubs should probably sign him up for anger management or yoga so he can learn to control his anger.

The other biggest problem that Zambrano faces is his first 15 pitches of the game, hitters tend to jump on him early and this is proof of his ERA for his whole career.

In pitches 1-15 his ERA is 6.69, after that the only time his ERA is above 2.99 is in pitches 31-45 and 91-105.

Lefties tend to kill Big Z too, last year alone they were batting .268 off of him, while righties were hitting a miserable .200 off of him.

If you’ve ever seen Zambrano pitch live at Wrigley the one thing you notice is the way he feeds off the crowd, but the biggest question mark around him is why he pitches so bad at home (4.96 ERA) as opposed to on the road (3.06) ERA?

Expect a normal season from Big Z, maybe one year he’ll show he can win the Cy Young and pitch the whole season the way he did last year in June and July (2.53 and 1.38 ERA respectively).

PREDICTION: 17-10, 3.63 ERA, 191 strikeouts

Ted Lilly, he was what Zambrano couldn’t be last year, the stopper. He stopped the bleeding a lot of the time when the Cubs needed it, especially the first two months of the year when Zambrano was struggling with a 5.77 ERA in April and 4.72 ERA in May; while in April last year Lilly had a 2.18 ERA and a 4.66 ERA in May.

Lilly isn’t an overpowering guy, except for his big sweeping curveball, but the one thing that makes him a great starting pitcher is that he hardly walks anyone.

Last year he only walked guys in double digits three times (10, 12, 15) and in the other three months in single digits (5, 8, 5). These are great, especially when you compare it to the Cy Young winner, Jake Peavy, who walked guys in double digits four times (13, 11, 14, 16) or the runner-up Brandon Webb who walked guys in double digits five times (16, 12, 14, 13, 11).

The biggest question mark facing Lilly this year is: can he perform this way two years in a row?

It was the first time in four years that he didn’t lose double digit games and five years since his ERA not to be above 4.00. Most of the hitters had never seen him last year because he came over from the Blue Jays in a free agent signing, so I expect some of his numbers to go up, while others will go down.

PREDICTION: 15-10, 3.94 ERA, 168 strikeouts

Ryan Dempster, has had a great spring, but spring doesn’t matter during the regular season.

When I first heard that they were going to make him a starter my mind wondered back to his days in Miami, when he posted records like: 14-10 and 15-12, with 3.66 and 4.94 ERAs, but those also had 209 and 171 strikeouts, respectively.

When he started to catch the injury bug he didn’t start at least 20 games until 2003 in Cincinnati and by then he was awful as a starter. He started 20 games in 2003, his season was cut short because of injury (I know, I was surprised to), and he posted a 3-7 record, 6.54 ERA with opposing batters hitting .293 off of him.

Starting as a Cub in 2005 for one month he posted a 1-3 record, 5.67 ERA, 30 strikeouts, with opposing hitters hitting .287 off of him.

Lefties are going to eat him alive, last year they batted .259 off of him, the year before, .310 and as for his career they’re batting .288, while righties are batting .249 off of him.

I understand that the last couple of spots were up for grabs and the way to win one of those spots was to perform in spring, but Dempster’s numbers are terrifying as a starter.

I can’t honestly see him making the whole year as a starter, but my numbers are geared towards him staying in the starting roll.

PREDICTION: 9-15, 4.92 ERA, 156 strikeouts

Rich Hill, analysis always predict sophomores to have bad years because they, the sophomore, figure they can go out and do the same exact thing they did the year before and be fine. But the truth of the matter is they have to work harder then the hitters to be better.

Hitters have seen them a lot during the year and have had time to adjust and watch film on them, so the pitchers should do the same. But the little known fact about pitchers is that they tend to be cockier then hitters.

Hill will probably have a mini slump this year because he’s no different then anyone else out there, but his numbers will not be horrific, if anything they will mirror the numbers from last year.

He showed signs of tiring at the end of the year, the proof is in his 5.08 ERA in September and throwing a big fat one in the playoffs last year.

He has been working on his pickoff move this spring which should help get some ducks off the pond.

Don’t be too amazed by his April numbers, he’s usually a great first month guy (1.77 ERA), but comes back down to earth in May (6.52 ERA).

As far as games go, he tends to get better as the game progresses but once his pitch count gets to 91 or above his ERA jumps above 4.82 for his career.

This year his stamina should be up, he should be more head strong, and hopefully he’ll do better on the road (5-6) as compared to at home (6-2) last year.

PREDICTION: 14-9, 3.82 ERA, 180 strikeouts

Jason Marquis, there are not too many positives to Mr. Marquis.

His ERA is always high, he usually gets in arguments with other players and managers (i.e. Marquis and Piniella have already had it out this spring), and he doesn’t strikeout too many guys.

The biggest positive, and the only reason I love this guy, is that he doesn’t care what his numbers look like, just as long as they win the game.

He’s going to give you 200 innings a year, six innings a game, and keep the game moderately close.

In 2006 when he was with the Cardinals he threw two games were he gave up 12 earned runs in one game and 13 in another. The reason for this is because the bullpen had been worked to the bone the games before and LaRussa needed Marquis to stay in the game, even though it was obviously not his day those two days.

These are the two games I remembered the most when the Cubs signed him and I remember saying to myself, “That’s a waste of *%$#@!^* money!” Once I found out the reason for these gruesome outings I became a fan.

His numbers will probably be worse this year then they where last year, but he’s going to eat up those innings and give the bullpen a break.

Does he finish the year as a starter or even on the team? All signs point to no, with Sean Marshall and Jon Lieber waiting in the wings, he’ll either be traded or possibly let go.

PREDICTION: 13-10, 4.82 ERA, 101 strikeouts

The Bullpen:

The bullpen is a little better this year, but they are suspect also. They have the right guys, but Lou has proved to stick with one guy for too long and that can sometimes be costly.

Lou hasn’t decided if he’s going to keep Sean Marshall on as a bullpen guy, so I’ll pretend that he’ll be sent down to the minors, which is probably the right move.

The reason for I feel this is the right move for him is because he’s a starting pitcher, not a reliever, and if they send him down they can keep him on a regular regiment and keep him fresh. If the Cubs need a long reliever they have Lieber in the pen, if they need a long lefty reliever they have Pignatiello.

Here are the bullpen guys with my predictions:

Kerry Wood (CL) This is going to be Wood’s first full time closing and it will be a work in progress because, as many Cubs fans know, Wood can sometimes let the screws come undone, just like Zambrano.

Last year he only had three bad outings all year (shortened year because of injury) and he sometimes pitched more than one inning.

I like Wood in the closer role, he has electric stuff and if he can harness it for one inning a night, he should be lights out.

Wood has had a tremendous spring, he didn’t walk a single batter, and could very well be at top closer for as long as his arm holds up.

But lets be realistic, it’s Kerry Wood and instead of the letters CL being behind his name it should be DL, a place he knows all too well.

I’m predicting that he’ll go on the DL at least once this year; so Marmol or Howry are going to have to step it up when he does. Fair warning, Wood is possibly my favorite pitcher pitching right now so these numbers are probably a little bias.

PREDICTION: 2-4, 2.80 ERA, 78 strikeouts, 31 saves

Carlos Marmol (SU) He was insane last year. The numbers he put up were unpredictable.

His slider was some of the nastiest I have ever seen and his fastball had movement up and down in the strike zone.

One can only wonder if he can do it two years in a row?

He didn’t have any weaknesses last year, except he hated pitching in Coors Field and Dolphins Stadium (6.75 and 10.80 ERA respectively) and when his pitch count gets high, 31 or more, his ERA ballooned up to 7.94; this is proof of Lou sticking with someone too long.

PREDICTION: 4-1, 2.14 ERA, 82 strikeouts, nine saves

Bob Howry, if you have ever seen this guy pitch live, you’d ask yourself, “How the hell do guys hit off of him?”

He has that slow delivery to the plate and then the ball explodes out of his hand. Some hitters have claimed it feels like hitting a bowling ball when they make contact with one of his pitches.

He is another one that you have to watch a pitch count on, 16 or more pitches his ERA jumps to 8.71.

The thing that still baffles me to this day is why is ERA jumped so high when he came to the National League (2.74 and 2.47 two years with the Indians; 3.17 and 3.32 with the Cubs)?

PREDICTION: 5-6, 3.24 ERA, 70 strikeouts, four saves

Michael Wuertz, this is my boy, besides Wood, in the pen.

He’s consistent and he almost never lets inherited runners score; over the last two years only two inherited runners have scored in each year; in 2004 he didn’t let one inherited run score on him at all.

I expect his numbers to return to his 2006 campaign.

PREDICTION: 3-2, 3.01 ERA, 81 strikeouts

Jon Lieber, his numbers as a reliever are going to be hard to predict.

I expect him to be in the rotation before it’s all said and done, but if you look at his past performances as a reliever the only word that come to mind is: vile.

Last year he started as a reliever for the Phillies and in two outings he pitched: 2/3 giving up 2 earned runs and 1 2/3 giving up 1 run, but after those two outings, which his ERA was 11.57, he started a game and went 5 2/3 giving up no runs and striking out 5.

He’s a mystery as to what he can do as a reliever, so these numbers are probably not going to be accurate at all, but they are also geared towards him staying in the pen; and as I stated before, I don’t see that happening at all.

PREDICTION: 2-5, 4.11 ERA, 52 strikeouts

Scott Eyre, he’s one of the lefty specialist that the Cubs will be carrying this season (the other will either be Marshall or Pignatiello).

His numbers went up last year which is disheartening considering his a lefty specialist, their numbers, in my opinion, should always be pretty good considering they only have to concentrate on a small portion of the opposing team’s lineup.

I can only hope he gets his numbers down to his 2005 campaign, but since he’s starting the year on the DL and is unable to throw his breaking pitches, he’ll probably be ineffective; I’ll be amazed if he makes it through half the season.

The biggest thing with Eyre, is when a righty comes to the plate they should throw anyone else onto the mound besides him. Throw an infielder on the mound if there’s no one warmed up, because they kill him (.281 career and .317 in 2007 are opposing righty averages off of him).

PREDICTION: 3-2, 3.98 ERA, 57 strikeouts

Carmen Pignatiello, is another guy who’s numbers are going to be difficult to predict.

He’s only pitched a total of two innings in his major league career.

He’s lights out in the minors though, last year between AA and AAA he posted a 2.76 ERA, 50 strikeouts in 55 innings; the year before between AA and AAA he posted a 2.43 ERA, 78 strikeouts in 59 innings.

His numbers in the minors proves that he has nothing left to prove in there, now it’s just a matter of getting it done for the big club.

I’m expecting big things from this kid; he’s got a funky delivery and seems ready for the show. My prediction: this year’s Carlos Marmol.

PREDICTION: 3-1, 2.66 ERA, 68 strikeouts

NL Central:

Everyone knows that the NL Central is a weak division with teams, such as: the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals (when Pujols goes out, they're officially done).

This year the division is going to be a three horse race between: the Cubs, Astros, and Brewers. All of these teams got better this year, here's a look at to who these teams added:

The Brewers added: Mike Cameron (who is suspended for the first month for using a banned substance), Jason Kendall (why do all of the ex-Cub catchers go to the Brewers), Eric Gagne, Salmon Torres, Guillermo Mota, and David Riske.

They moved Braun’s awful defense to the outfield (.895 fielding percentage at third base) and will have Corey Hart and Braun for a whole year. They didn’t lose any notable players and bettered their bullpen, so they look quite intimidating.

The Brewers have a huge problem though: playing on the road is not one of their strong suits. Last year they were 32-49 (tied for second worst in the NL) on the road, but at home they were 51-30 (the best in the NL). Last year the Brewers had a lot of kids on the team, so that could have had something to do with it.

The only thing I can't figure out is why they are better at home?

Have you been to that ball park?

Have you been to that city?

Ugh!!!

The Astros added: Michael Bourn, Ty Wigginton (technically), Miguel Tejada, J.R. Towles, Darin Erstad, Geoff Blum, Reggie Abercrombie, Kazuo Matsui, Shawn Chacon, Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail, Oscar Villarreal, Wesley Wright, Geoff Geary, and Chad Paronto.

With all the potential on this team it’s hard not to pick them to win the division, but their rotation is extremely weak and I’m not fully sold on their manager Cecil Cooper. Although if he uses the speed potential to its fullest, I'll become a fan.

The Reds added: Corey Patterson, Francisco Cordero, Jeremy Affeldt, Edison Volquez, and Josh Fogg.

The Reds have a lot of young talent that they'll be using this year too, that is if Dusty Baker is a changed man or not: Norris Hopper, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and Jay Bruce. Apparently it's extremely trendy to pick the Reds to do well this year, but as a Cubs fan I know how much of an idiot Dusty Baker is, especially when it comes to young talent.

The Cardinals added: Troy Glaus, Ceasar Izturis, Rick Ankiel (for a whole season), Kyle Lohse, and Matt Clement.

As you can see the Cardinals have seriously gone on the decline since their World Series win a couple of years ago. Their only bright spot is the possibility of having Colby Rasmus, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan or Ryan Ludwick all in their outfield for years to come.

The Pirates added: Tyler Yates, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Chris Gomez. Their biggest move was getting rid of that moron Jim Tracy though.

They have, quite possibly, the best young rotation in the majors with: Ian Snell (26), Tom Gorzelanny (26), Paul Maholm (26), Matt Morris (34), and Zach Duke (25). If they could just run support, this would be a scary team. They're headed in the right direction, just not there yet.

The Cubs had the best Central Division record out of all the teams (45-34), but the Astros are a whole new team.

So as you can see this is a difficult decision, especially for the Cubs fan in me, but all the signs point towards the….CUBS!!!

PREDICTION:

Cubs 89-73

Brewers 84-78

Astros 82-80

Reds 79-83

Cardinals 72-90

Pirates 70-92

I’m not saying the Cubs are going to win it all, but they will make the playoffs to represent the Central Division again.

Boston Red Sox: Greedy, Greedy, Greedy

Timothy Davis — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 06:36:07 -0400

Joe DiMaggio was once asked, "Why do you play so hard in a game that means nothing for your team?"

The Yankees were already in the playoffs and just finishing out the rest of the season.

He replied, "Because there's at least one person in the stands that has never seen Joe DiMaggio play before." It's one of my favorite Joltin' Joe quotes.

This attitude was most certainly not displayed on Wednesday, March 19, 2008. I turned on ESPN to relax and watch some spring training baseball, but alas, the game was delayed by more than an hour.

Rain? No.

Bus breaking down? No.

Field unplayable? No. It’s none of these!

It’s the Red Sox being greedy.

There was a disagreement with MLB regarding compensation for the trip to Japan for which the Red Sox will leave after the March 19th game.

Steve Phillips—who used to be the General Manager for the New York Mets and is now an analyst for Baseball Tonight—said that when this first happened in 2000 (when the Cubs played in Japan) there was no “extra” money or “compensation” for the trainers, coaches, or players.

The same was true in 2004 when the Mets—the team that Phillips himself agreed to bring over to Japan—were not compensated either.

Phillips said the players got a royalty fee, but the trainers and coaches did not.

How much of what the Red Sox are telling us is true? Who’s supposed to get paid—the trainers and coaches, or the players alone?

Phillips went on to say, “The underlying problem here is that the funds have been taken away from their [the Red Sox players] families to travel with them.”

It's probably the players being greedy for themselves instead of looking out for other people.

Jason Varitek met with reporters and is quoted as saying, “It’s no longer about money, it’s about principle. It’s to take care of the people who take care of us.”

Varitek was paid $11 million dollars in 2007 to hit .255 and 17 HRs. The year before he hit .238 with 12 HRs and was paid $10 million.

Why doesn’t he take some of this money and give it to the trainers and coaches that he says, “Are our extended family and do everything for us”?

I’m not taking anything away from the “captain” because he’s an amazing player—the best pitch caller in the league, in fact.

But he needs to look in the mirror and think about what and how much he gets paid to do—play a kids game.

It’s no secret that I’m a Yankee fan and that my hatred for the Sox runs deep. But if you’re a fan who regularly attends games of any nature, you should agree with this viewpoint.

Players don’t really know how difficult it is to go to a game, especially for a popular team, such as the Red Sox or Yankees.

When you go to a game there’s a lot of preparation involved: what time to leave to beat traffic, what route to take, how much money to bring, where to park, should you tailgate or not, who you are meeting up with, when and where you are meeting this person, how much to drink at the game, what to do after the game, how much to spend, etc., etc.

I think that this is a huge black eye for the game of baseball (another one) and for the Red Sox.

Baseball held back promised funds, so exactly how will the players and coaches trust them again?

The Red Sox received bad PR, delayed a television broadcast, made the other team (the Blue Jays) wait, get stiff, mess up their rotation. And they made the fans wait and probably spend more money that were already at the game.

I know it’s a meaningless spring training game, but you have to think about the fans. They’re the reason the game exists.

When the players did come out onto the field most of the fans booed the players. And this was a home game for the Red Sox.

For the first time in my life, I have to say that I love Red Sox fans.

MLB Preview: New York Yankees

Timothy Davis — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 12:05:23 -0400

The Yankees have a lot going on this summer: the closing of their stadium, the All-Star game in their stadium, a new head coach, starting pitching rotation conflicts, a new owner (kind of) in Hank Steinbrenner, extra hitting (which is never a problem), players named in the Mitchell Report, and 8 years since their last world championship on their shoulders. To get the focus on baseball and not all of these other distractions the Yankees got the biggest free agent in the offseason, in my opinion, Joe Girardi.

Girardi is a former catcher (and everyone knows catchers make the best managers) for such teams as the: Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, and St. Louis Cardinals. Recently he was the manager of the Florida Marlins in 2006, where he was awarded the National League Manager of the Year. What Girardi did with the Marlins in 2006, in one word is, astonishing.

With the Marlins he had the lowest payroll in the whole Major League, a record setting Opening Day by having six rookies in his lineup (this doesn’t include his rotation), and had the team in competition for the playoffs in a tough division. I’ll say it again, astonishing.

The Lineup:

The batting order is still in the works and of course there’s the DH competition that can really go in any way, but in the end Matsui will probably win out because of his past seasons and his professionalism.

This is the lineup that I think the Yankees should use; I know it’s a heavy left handed lineup, but these are the guys that give you the best chance to win at the plate and in the field.

1. Johnny Damon (LF) There’s really nothing bad to say about Mr. Damon, especially since he moved over to left field; everyone in the majors knew how bad of a throwing arm he has.

His numbers are consistent, there’s been a fall of in BA since becoming a Yankee (down 31 points in 2006 and down 15 points in 2007), but his OBP hasn’t suffered too much.

He’s a decent defensive left fielder and is that crazy person in the locker room that every team should have. Hopefully he can stay healthy all year.

PREDICTION: 119 runs, 18 HRs, 84 RBIs, .291 average, 28 stolen bases

2. Derek Jeter (SS) Oh Capitan, My Capitan. How can you not be a Derek Jeter fan (Boston fans excluded)? He’s made the plays that needed to be made in the playoffs, the best inside out hitter I’ve ever seen, and his cut throat mentality (i.e. A. Rod, Mariah Carey, and the kid from the Make-A-Wish foundation special on ESPN).

He leads the team on the field and helps set the table for the rest of the lineup, in case Damon doesn’t. This is proof by his OBP which has gone up from .352 in 2005, before Damon signed with the Yankees, to .417 in 2006 and .388 in 2007.

PREDICTION: 111 runs, 13 HRs, 81 RBIs, .329 average, 19 stolen bases

3. Bobby Abreu (RF) He doesn’t get enough credit for what he does in right field and especially what he does at the plate.

In the field he gives you the most consistent play you can expect out of a right fielder, last year he had only 4 errors in 313 chances. He also gives the runners something to think about before advancing to second or third.

At the plate he is quite possibly the most patient person in the league; this is by far the biggest reason for A. Rod’s huge year last year (not taking anything away from A. Rod). He lets A. Rod see the pitchers’ whole arsenal before he steps up to the plate.

This spring he showed up weighing less and looking faster than ever, expect big things from him this year; think 2004 numbers 118/30/105/.301/40

PREDICTION: 114 runs, 24 HRs, 107 RBIs, .293 average, 33 stolen bases

4. Alex Rodriguez (3B) What can be said about him that hasn’t already been said?

Is he the greatest position player to ever live? When it’s all said and done, probably.

Is he greedy? A lot of people would say yes.

Is he cursed? As of right now it seems that way, but only time will tell.

Will he ever be able to perform in the playoffs? History usually doesn’t lie, so maybe 2000 (4/2/5/.420) and 2004 (11/3/8/.320) are going to be his fondest memory of the playoffs.

Can he put up the same numbers two years in a row? He’s done it once before and he’ll do it again to prove he’s worth every penny!

PREDICTION: 132 runs, 50 HRs, 147 RBIs, .316 average, 21 stolen bases (can you say MVP?)

5. Jason Giambi (1B) You can read it here first (?) and quote me, “Giambi will stay healthy and have a rebirth this year!”

I’m thinking he’ll have numbers close to his 1999 season (115/33/123/.315), not 2000 (his MVP year when he put up 108/43/137/.333).

All the signs point to it: he’ll be playing in the field and his numbers do better when he does, he came to spring trimmed out of granite, and he’s got protection around him.

It also doesn’t hurt that he’s playing for another contract either.

PREDICTION: 108 runs, 35 HRs (if not more), 116 RBIs, .295 average, 0 stolen bases

6. Hideki Matsui (DH) He is a professional hitter if there ever was one.

He doesn’t try to do too much with the ball and with the short porch in right field at home it helps his home run count go up, plus he’s got the best hair in the league.

I mean really, what does he use in his hair? Every time his hat or helmet comes off his hair is always perfect and flowing like silk.

Expect DHing to help his numbers A LOT and for them to possibly move him back to the five hole.

PREDICTION: 101 runs, 36 HRs, 118 RBIs, .303 average, 5 stolen bases

7. Jorge Posada (C) Talk about rebirths, hell first born! Where did his numbers come from last year?

He was hitting everything, everything, in sight and he’s a switch hitting catcher!

I can’t honestly say that I see him putting up the same numbers this year; last year he was playing for a contract and is in one of the most beefed up lineups in the league, so that’s probably were the numbers came from.

Expect good numbers for a catcher, but not nearly the same average.

PREDICTION: 83 runs, 18 HRs, 91 RBIs, .273 average, 1 stolen base

8. Robinson Cano (2B) Everyone thought that he was going to have another monster year in 2007 because of his race for the batting title in 2006 but he left us all shaking our heads to what happened to his bat.

Usually players get sophomore slumps, this writer is hoping he got a junior slump; calling a 93/19/97/.306 year a slump is ridiculous for a second baseman, I know, but for the numbers he put up in 2006 it was.

Even with his batting average dropping 36 points his on-base percentage only dropped 12 points. Look for another stellar season from one of the premier 2^nd baseman in the American League. Expect Girardi to move him into the 7 spot in the lineup.

PREDICTION: 89 runs, 21 HRs, 92 RBIs, .333 average, 5 stolen bases

9. Melky Cabrera (CF) He is the most overlooked guy on this team. If it wasn’t for him the last two years where would the Yankees be?

Melky was the man last year when the whole team was hit with the injury bug and two years ago when Matsui went down he stepped right in and filled the position nicely. Wasn’t he the guy they were trying to get rid of in the 2006 offseason too?

His bat leaves something to be desired because in a lineup full of home run hitters, hitting .273 with 7 HRs isn’t sexy by any means, but the .360 in 2006 and the .327 OBP is pretty sexy.

But his defense, arm strength, and accuracy throwing would be runners out (14 assists in 130 games in centerfield last year) are the only things you need from a center fielder. Also, when you have a lineup filled with studs, you can have one dud.

PREDICTION: 78 runs, 9 HRs, 71 RBIs, .283 average, 14 stolen bases

Starting Rotation:

The starting rotation for the Yankees is, for the first time in a lot of years, pretty young. They have the possibly to have 3 young guns in the starting rotation, all which are home grown.

Home grown by the Yankees you say? Yes, believe it or not the Yankees realized there’s this thing called the minor leagues that have kids on teams, which they manage, and that they can put these kids on their team which they are already paying.

It only took Brain Cashman 8+ years to realize this and to realize that some of these kids are extremely good! You don’t just have to use them as trade bait right before the trade deadline to get overrated, overpaid bums to help for a playoff push. But this could also possibly be the Achilles Heel of the rotation, it’s always proven that players, especially young players, get intimated pitching in Yankee Stadium.

They’re going to face adversity and be tested all year long: falling behind to a great hitter, giving up home runs in key situations, keeping their stamina up, and carrying whatever embarrassing bag out to the bullpen on their days off full of gum and sunflower seeds.

If the kids can just eat up innings and stay consistent all year, they should have good numbers, because this lineup is going to score runs for them and play defense behind them. They just have to remember not to try and do too much and just trust their ability.

Currently Girardi is still working on the rotation, but lets just pretend that Joba Chamberlain is starting the year in the bullpen. Also, I’m not going to include WHIP in my predictions because it’s an overrated stat:

Chien-Ming Wang, is the leader of this rotation and should always, always, be in the running for the Cy Young because he’s almost a lock for 19 wins a year.

History proves that he only needs at least 30 starts to win 19-which is insane. He’s lights out in the second half and can almost guarantee 10 wins after the All-Star break.

He’s not an overpowering guy, he’ll use his sinker and slider to perfection, but his new pitch, the changeup, just might help his strikeout total and (dare I say) help him get a couple of more wins.

Expect consistency from him and to maybe improve because of the addition of Girardi.

PREDICTION: 20-8, 3.34 ERA, 121 strikeouts

Andy Pettitte, has a huge test in front of him this year, a mental test.

Everyone knows how great he is in the playoffs, which some could argue is more mental than physical, but he’s going to have some of the biggest media attention of any player this year.

I expect some of the same numbers, maybe for those numbers to even fall off a little, but I’ll take a veteran lefty any day (excluding Barry Zito), especially when he’s almost automatic in the playoffs.

PREDICTION: 16-9, 4.18 ERA, 140 strikeouts

Phil Hughes, you need to know one word and one word only when it comes to Mr. Hughes-stud.

This kid is always overlooked because of another stud on the pitching staff, Mr. Chamberlain, but Hughes is, in my opinion, the best young stud they have on this team.

Do I need to remind anyone about his possible no hitter against Texas last May? His curve ball is nasty, his fastball has movement, and he has a good head on his shoulders; do you need anything else?

Expect great things from such a young pitcher, but don’t forget he is young and he will struggle at times.

PREDICTION: 15-9, 3.99 ERA, 182 strikeouts

Mike Mussina, does anyone remember the days when he was in Baltimore and you asked yourself, “I wonder what his numbers would look like on a decent team, let alone a good team?”

Remember that 1992 season when he put up 18-5, 2.54, 130 Ks in a season? I do!

The Mousse (what he is commonly known as) is old now though and didn’t see anything close to those numbers last year, not even close; last year was his worst as a major and he looks to prove that pitchers get better with age and that he can bounce back this year.

I don’t expect a resurgent, but better numbers then last year because he is pitching for a contract too.

PREDICTION: 16-11, 4.19 ERA, 151 strikeouts

Ian Kennedy, is hard to predict how he’s going to react to pitching a whole season in the majors.

In his Tour De Force last year, doing a tour of all levels of baseball play, he posted: A 6-1 record in 10 GS, 1.29 ERA, 72 Ks; AA 5-1 record in 9 GS, 2.59 ERA, 57 Ks; AAA 1-1 record in 6 GS, 2.08 ERA, 34 Ks.

He has the ability, obviously, and consistently hits his spots so he should be fine, right? Well the biggest problem facing him is that his scouting report is spot on about him, but it’s not the positives that are spot on, it’s the negatives.

He’s the shakiest in the first couple of innings and throws too many pitches early which doesn’t allow him to go deep into the game.

The two big question marks are: his inability to keep the ball in the yard and if he has the stamina to pitch a whole season in the majors.

PREDICTION: 14-8, 4.11 ERA, 149 strikeouts

Record:

The person with the biggest weight on his shoulders this year is Girardi. He was brought in to bring the pin stripes back to glory THIS YEAR and to consistently put them in the World Series.

Even though “The Boss” isn’t steering the bus anymore, his off spring is, so don’t expect a longer plank for Girardi to walk on.

Girardi is a first class guy with the ability to lead some of the best players in the league to a World Series Championship.

He’s got speed, amazing hitters, an MVP candidate (if not two), and one of the biggest payrolls in the league on his side; but he’s also got his need for perfection working against him too. He should lead them to a World Series at least one year, I’m not saying it will happen this year, but here’s hoping!

The Yankees will win the East again with their young pitching and solid offense: 95-67

MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs Batting Order

Timothy Davis — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 03:22:30 -0400

The most common phrase said by every single Cubs fan when it’s inevitable that the Cubs just are not going to get it done in the current year, “Maybe next year.” I myself have uttered these words too many times in my lifetime to remember, but with a key acquisition in the offseason, the Cubs could just be saying, “This is next year!”

Kosuke Fukudome, the man with the last name so easy to make fun of, is this key acquisition that the Cubs are relying on. His not going to put up huge numbers, such as 30 home runs and 120 RBIs, but he will fill at least two holes the Cubs have: right field and a left handed batter in a line-up full of righties. Prior to signing with the Cubs, Fukudome played nine seasons for the Chunichi Dragons of the Japanese Central League. In 2007, his most recent with the Dragons, he was limited to 81 games due to a right elbow injury and underwent surgery to remove bone fragments in August. Despite the injury, he batted .294 with 22 doubles, 13 home runs, a .520 slugging percentage and had a .443 on-base percentage; he was able to acquire such a high on-base percentage because he walked 69 more times than he struck out (66).

The Cubs are not just one person though; this was proven last year when everyone thought that Alfonso Soriano was going to be the savior. If you want to really see why the Cubs can be the contender that we all hope they can be you have to look at the whole team. I’ll break down the Cubs offensive players by the proposed line-up at the beginning of spring training by Lou Piniella, keeping in mind that Lou is still experimenting with the order: moving Theriot up to the one hole and Soriano down to the two hole, moving Fukudome down to the five hole and Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez up to the three and four hole respectively. I can’t really argue with the experiment that Lou is currently doing because on paper it makes so much more sense to do it this way, but you need to make sure your players are comfortable too! All I have to say, better you than me Lou:

1-Alfonso Soriano, this is where this man should be hitting mainly because he feels comfortable here. He’s not your prototypical leadoff man because of his power potential, but he proved last year when you move him around the order his offensive numbers go down dramatically. Hopefully he feels comfortable at home this year in comparison to last year.

PREDICTION: 111 runs, 38 HRs, 88 RBIs, .282 average, 31 stolen bases

2-Ryan Theriot, he is finally getting his due. Your shortstop doesn’t need to be a home run machine or even win a batting title; just look at the last couple of World Series winners! He plays with heart, and I’ll take that any day over an overpaid and overrated guy (not naming any names). Even when things look the worst, Theriot is still going to go up to the plate or onto the field and give it his all.

PREDICTION: 98 runs, 3 HRs, 78 RBIs, .276 average, 42 stolen bases

3-Kosuke Fukudome, most Japanese players numbers suffer when they make the trip across the Pacific (unless your name is Ichiro), and Fukudome will probably not be any different. The seasons are longer, tougher, and hotter in America then they are in Japan. The Cubs don’t need him to be the player he was in Japan, hitting 30+ home runs; they just need him to bring his patience, incredible eye, and batting average with him. The Cubs have the role players to hit the ball over the ivy covered brick walls; they just need people on base when they do it.

PREDICTION: 98 runs, 11 HRs, 71 RBIs, .289 average (hopefully it will be higher), 9 stolen bases

4-Derrek Lee, probably the most over looked guy at the first base position. He should win the gold glove every year; hell they should rename the gold glove at first base after him. He’s got a great eye and has completely changed his approach at the plate since the 2005 campaign. He now knows that the power will eventually come when you just focus on making great contact with the ball, plus he’s got great protection!

PREDICTION: 122 runs, 33 HRs, 112 RBIs, .322 average, 13 stolen bases

5-Aramis Ramirez, between my friends and I we call him “fat boy,” because he used to be so bad at his defense that we needed a nickname to call him when he screwed up. Plus, I know he’s probably the first one to hit the buffet after the game. His power numbers dropped off last year because I think he finally realized that he has to play the field decently too (keyword: decently). Putting forth that much effort in the field tired him out to where he couldn’t hit the ball as far, at least that’s my theory. His numbers went up in the field, for once, posting a .972 fielding percentage; compared to .947 fielding percentage 2 years prior.

PREDICTION: 98 runs, 36 HRs, 122 RBIs, .301 average, 0 stolen bases

6-Mark DeRosa, the super utility man. Notice what I said there, utility man. I love DeRosa, I’m a huge fan, but I would love to see him in the utility role instead of just being the everyday second baseman. In that role he could keep the whole team fresh. What this man is able to do: play at so many different positions day after day, and have such a great fielding percentage at each is in itself amazing. He could still play 120 games at the utility position while helping out the team in a way that no other player can. But then again when a Hall a Fame coach (Bobby Cox) says he wishes he could play him everyday you don’t question it, or do you? Needless to say his numbers should go up dramatically with Geovany Soto hitting behind him.

PREDICTION: 82 runs, 15 HRs (13 is his career high), 73 RBIs, .283 average, 2 stolen bases

7-Geovany Soto, a lot of people are expecting a lot out of this kid, especially me. He’s coming off his MVP season in Triple A and a huge late season call up by the Cubs. He has the possibility of being one of the best young catchers in the league for years to come, but first he has to prove his worth in his first full season in the majors. Don’t expect the numbers he put up in the minors, were he batted .353 with 26 home runs and 109 RBIs, but expect great numbers from a catcher.

PREDICTION: 62 runs, 18 HRs, 70 RBIs, .277 average, 0 stolen bases

8-Felix Pie, how many times have you heard his name associated with the future of the Cubs? I know, I know too many! Right now he’s probably not hearing anything along those lines, but instead as many jokes that can be made up using baseballs as a pun. One can only hope that he can live up to half of his potential. Hopefully, this will be the year of his coming out party.

PREDICTION: 71 runs, 9 HRs, 49 RBIs, .251 average (a bit high, but here’s hoping), 29 stolen bases

As you can see the Cubs have it all offensively: speed, power and average; it’s just a matter of mixing and using them all to their full potential, especially the speed potential. All the speed that they will have on the base paths will make the opposing pitchers unable to fully concentrate, and that should play to their favor with better batting averages and more home runs. Want proof? Look at the White Sox in their 2005 World Series campaign.

Don’t expect Fukudome to be the savior or to put up “monster numbers” and bring the Cubs the easy championship that most of us are hoping for. There will, of course, be drama, come on, it’s the Cubs; but that’s what makes baseball so great: the drama, conflict, and turmoil that is built up throughout all the games played all year and 9 innings, at least, played per game.

Coming Soon: the Pitching Staff!