Bleacher Report - Articles by Markusr2007

Quarterback Achievement Under Rod Smith

Markusr2007 — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:16:00 -0400

It’s within the grave realm of possibility that the Michigan football team may start a true freshman at quarterback this fall for only the third time in over 40 years. The last two episodes of such daring ended well statistically for the Wolverines. First there was quarterback Rick Leach between 1975-78 and then Chad Henne between 2004-07 respectively. Both of these freshmen quarterbacks became two of the most decorated quarterbacks to ever wear a winged helmet.

Following a 3-9 season in 2008, the hand wringing over the new Michigan quarterback situation might have many Wolverine fans double-checking their blood pressure, taking yoga classes, confirming the on time delivery of that pre-ordered pallet of Pepto Bismol, and signing up for hypnosis sessions to prevent the sure-to-come thunderstorm of household swearing on Saturday afternoons this autumn.

Well actually, it might not be that bad.

Starting true freshmen at quarterback is certainly not Rich Rodriguez’s idea of fun for his second year at Michigan. The 2009 Michigan quarterback situation will require a great deal of coaching resolve, patience and expertise. Thankfully, Rodriguez doesn’t have to develop the new Wolverine signal callers all by himself.

After Rich Rodriguez accepted the job as Michigan head football coach in December 2007, he summarily fired the entire staff of former head coach Lloyd Carr, including Wolverine quarterback coach and recruiter extraordinaire Scot Loeffler. Only UM running backs coach Fred Jackson was rehired. Rodriguez decided to bring in many of his own assistant colleagues from West Virginia with him to Michigan, including offensive coordinator Calvin Magee and quarterbacks coach Rod Smith.

Prior to joining Rodriguez’s staff at West Virginia, Magee and Smith both coached at South Florida University in Tampa under Bulls head coach Jim Leavitt. Magee had been the running game coordinator for the Bulls for four years (1997-2000). Rod Smith was the quarterbacks coach from 2001-04. Smith pulled double-duty as South Florida’s offensive coordinator and QB coach from 2005-06. Jim Leavitt’s well documented disdain for Rich Rodriguez may stem from RichRod’s rather frequent raiding of his South Florida staff over the years, including Magee, Smith and even former USF offensive line coach Greg Frey (now also at UM).

Just one more. If he steals just one more of my coaches...

But before Michigan fans commence with the chugging of those bottles of pepto around kickoff September 5th, it might be interesting for them to first consider some thin slices of college football history. Let's go back to a time when Rod Smith first became the South Florida quarterbacks coach under head coach Leavitt.

When Rod Smith arrived in Tampa in 2001, South Florida’s football program was entering its 5th year of existence as an independent. Coach Jim Leavitt was on a streak of sorts, with three straight winning seasons since 1998, including a 7-4-0 record in 2000. The previous Bulls offensive coordinator, Mike Canales, had just accepted a new passing coordinator job at NC State. Canales left Rod Smith the keys to a pretty good quarterback situation at South Florida in junior signal caller Marquel Blackwell.

Blackwell, who was the Bulls starting quarterback for 4 years, recorded a spectacular career at South Florida. He was arguably one of the first key players to help put South Florida football on the map nationally.

Blackwell did not throw all that much his first two seasons – only between 23 and 26 attempts per game in 1999 and 2000. While his accuracy was over 50 percent during these formative years, the yardage totals were fairly low - between 150-180 yards per game.

Name	Year	Class	Comp.	Att	%	Yards	TD	INT
Marquel Blackwell	1999	Fr.	136	262	51.9%	1620	16	10
Marquel Blackwell	2000	So.	171	296	57.8%	2016	13	4

While operating Canales’ spread option offense, Blackwell did showcase his elusiveness and foot speed. By his sophomore year, Blackwell had become a rather reliable ground gainer for the Bulls.

Name	Year	Class	Rush Att	Gained	Lost	Net	Yds/Carry	TDs
Marquel Blackwell	1999	Fr.	93	394	268	126	1.4	3
Marquel Blackwell	2000	So.	128	771	205	566	4.4	3

So when Rod Smith assumed the quarterback coaching role at South Florida in 2001, what he would prescribe for the South Florida quarterback situation must have seemed counter intuitive at the time. Smith apparently wanted Blackwell to do 2 things very differently:

Throw a lot more and run a lot less.

Of course, Smith didn’t exactly “discourage” Blackwell from running the ball. But he probably wanted his new student to start finding the right running lanes that the spread offense afforded him him. Overall, Smith wanted Blackwell to become more effective using his skills to execute the offense. The result?

Name	Year	Class	Rush Att	Gained	Lost	Net	Yds/Carry	TDs
Marquel Blackwell	2001	Jr.	92	347	106	241	2.6	9
Marquel Blackwell	2002	Sr.	89	425	113	312	3.5	5

Blackwell’s rushing attempts and total rushing yards certainly declined his junior and senior seasons under Rod Smith. But Marquel lost less yardage per carry (hitting the right escape lanes, fewer sacks?), and scored far more rushing touchdowns. Plus, Blackwell maintained his yards per carry average at a level that opposing defenses simply could not ignore.

When it came to passing the football during his junior and senior seasons, the Tampa fire department must have been pretty busy because Marquel Blackwell could only be described as having been “awwn fiyah!”.

Rod Smith ordered passing attempts essentially doubled from the prior two seasons under Canales. Blackwell's passing accuracy stayed the same at <58%, but the yardage numbers and TDs thrown exploded.

Name	Year	Class	Comp.	Att	%	Yards	TD	INT
Marquel Blackwell	2001	Jr.	258	456	56.6%	2882	20	11
Marquel Blackwell	2002	Sr.	230	408	56.4%	2590	18	3

Also, South Florida’s team reached new heights in the win column in 2001 and 2002, with eight and nine wins respectively.

In 2003-05, Smith continued to coach South Florida quarterbacks Ronnie Banks (2003-04) and Pat Julmiste in 2005. Both were considered “dual-threat” quarterbacks, but the on field results were more functional than stellar.

Name	Year	Class	Comp.	Att	%	Yards	TD	INT	Record
Ronnie Banks	2003	Jr.	127	261	48.7%	1448	8	8	7-4-0
Ronnie Banks	2004	Sr.	118	247	47.8%	1570	7	8	4-7-0
Pat Julmiste	2005	Jr.	124	252	49.2%	1489	6	11	6-6-0

Passing accuracy and attempts were way down, and productivity (yards and touchdowns) declined. Neither Banks or Julmiste produced remarkable rushing numbers at quarterback. SFU’s fortunes in the win column appeared to follow suit with only seven, four and six wins in 2003, 2004 and 2005.

The following year, a two-star, unranked quarterback recruit from Lakeland, FL named Matt Grothe arrived on campus. Grothe was 6-1 and 190 lbs with 4.59 speed. He had an explosive quarterback resume from Lake Gibson Senior high school with fantastic senior stats for an unranked kid: 2,700 yards passing, 33 TDs, 1,500 yards rushing and 15 more TDs.

Grothe would battle senior Bulls QB Pat Julmiste for the starting spot in 2006 and would win that battle fairly easily. As the 2006 season unfolded, it would become quite clear to Rod Smith and the entire SFU staff that Matt Grothe might become the greatest quarterback yet at South Florida University.

Grothe’s 2006 freshman season performance was revealing – and not too far removed statistically from what college football observers would come to expect from other spread option quarterbacks like Pat White at West Virginia and Troy Smith of Ohio State of this period.

As a freshman Grothe had, unfortunately, just sprinkled in a few more interceptions into the mix.

Name	Year	Class	Rush Att	Gained	Lost	Net	Yds/Carry	TDs
Matt Groethe	2006	Fr.	178	802	180	622	3.5	9

Name	Year	Class	Comp.	Att	%	Yards	TD	INT
Matt Groethe	2006	Fr.	202	317	63.7%	2576	15	14

Rod Smith left South Florida at the end of the 2006 season to rejoin Rich Rodriguez, at West Virginia and coach the Mountaineer quarterback Pat White in 2006 and 2007. Over his six years at South Florida, Rod Smith coached highly talented players like Marquel Blackwell and Matt Grothe and some slightly lesser talented signal callers as well.

South Florida’s aggregate quarterback stats between 2001-06 (six years) under Rod Smith were as follows:

Name	Completions	Attempts	Compl. %	Yards	TD	INT	Team Record	Winning Pct
All SFU QBs 2001-2006	1059	1941	54.6%	12555	74	55	43-26-0	0.623

Rod Smith might not be Scott Loeffler (below showing only four-year span of career):

Coach & Player	Completions	Attempts	Compl. %	Yards	TD	INT	Team Record	Winning Pct
Scott Loeffler with Chad Henne 2004-2007	828	1387	59.7%	9715	87	37	36-14	0.720

Yet from the historical record (without taking Pat White into consideration at all) Michigan’s quarterback coach Rod Smith is proven to be quite a good instructor. More importantly, he knows how to get good production out of his players, particularly when they already possess the basic, natural talents required for the job.

In my view, Smith's past performance bodes well for Michigan’s quarterback future even in the short-term with Nick Sheridan, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, as well as next year's incoming freshmen.

The Controversy Over The No. 1 Jersey at Michigan

Markusr2007 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:00:00 -0400

One interesting episode during of the off-season maelstrom of Rich Rodriguez’s first year as head football coach at Michigan was the controversy over issueing the No. 1 jersey to a freshmen defensive back, J.T. Floyd of Greenville, South Carolina.

Former Michigan WR Braylon Edwards was upset with Rich Rodriguez about this move because Edwards had, just two years prior, established a generous scholarship endowment of $500,000 to the University of Michigan Athletic Department that was to be issued to the worthy Michigan football player who would wear the No. 1 jersey.

Edwards’ response on ESPN’s Mike Tirico’s radio show:

"I’m glad you gave me a Go Blue question because Rich Rod gave the No. 1 jersey to an incoming freshman DB, and the No. 1 jersey has never been worn by anybody outside of a wide receiver,” Edwards said. “It dates back to Anthony Carter, (Greg) McMurtry, Tyrone Butterfield, Derrick Alexander, David Terrell, and yours truly. So I’m going to have a talk with him about that the next time I see him.”
When is that call coming, Edwards was asked?
“He’s getting that call soon–very soon. Exactly, we have a jersey scholarship fund for this whole deal. What is he thinking?”

Here is the description of Braylon Edwards’ scholarship endowment from the Braylone Edwards Foundation website:

Former University of Michigan football standout, and current Cleveland Browns' wide receiver, Braylon Edwards made history on Friday evening (April 14, 2006), announcing a $500,000 gift to create a scholarship endowment for the Athletic Department at the Junge Family Champions Center.

The gift is the largest pledged to the department by a current professional athlete, and links the Braylon Edwards Foundation to the No. 1 jersey. The new endowment will be awarded to the Michigan football player who wears the No. 1 jersey. If no player currently wears the No. 1 jersey, then the award will be granted to another player who exhibits exceptional off-field behavior and conducts himself as a team player.

I tried to think of other college football teams that may have jersey number traditions. I'm sure there are plenty. Penn State has it's No. 14. Ohio State has it's No. 45. And Michigan has it's No. 1.

Most schools are wise to retire jersey numbers when appropriate.

Indeed, many great players at Michigan have worn the No. 1 jersey, and a good majority wore it while playing the position of wide receiver:

Anthony Carter WR 1979-1982
Greg McMurtry WR 1986-1989
Derrick Alexander WR 1990-1994
David Terrell WR 1998-2000
Braylon Edwards WR 2003-2004
Greg Willner P/PK 1976-1978

In 2006, it was reasonable for Braylon Edwards to expect that many future UM wide receivers might end up wearing No. 1, and that his scholarship endowment would be in perfect alignment with that “tradition.”

His disagreement with Rodriguez occurred back in May, 2008, and was eventually sorted out with a one-on-one conversation (forgive the pun), and there are no hard feelings.

Rodriguez publicly admitted that he was clueless about the No. 1 jersey tradition at Michigan. Rodriguez also said he didn’t know about the scholarship endowment either, or its relationship with the No. 1 jersey.

Rodriguez gracefully resolved the dispute by handing J.T. Floyd the No. 12 jersey instead, and then by publicly declaring that no Michigan player will wear No. 1 for the 2008 season.

While it has been a little over a year since that argument came about, I have to be honest with readers: I still don’t get it.

I’m a big fan of Braylon Edwards. He is a star professional athlete, and a class act off the field.

His Advance 100 scholarship initiative further raises the bar of charitable giving, and sets him far above most NFL players in terms of emphasizing the importance of educating our nation’s youngsters.

That said, nowhere in the description of the Braylon Edward’s $500K scholarship endowment to Michigan is there any stated link to the No. 1 jersey and the position the recipient player must play. I’m pretty sure the Braylon Edwards Foundation means what it says when it states:

The new endowment will be awarded to the Michigan football player who wears the No. 1 jersey. If no player currently wears the No. 1 jersey then the award will be granted to another player who exhibits exceptional off-field behavior, and conducts himself as a team player.

So the endowment is linked to two things:

1.) The Michigan player who is handed No. 1 jersey

2.) The Michigan player who exhibits exceptional off-field behavior and conducts himself as a team player.

Therefore, it would appear that these endowment funds could be allocated to another worthy athlete playing a different position on the football team other than wide receiver.

This is a smart distinction to make because a worthy recipient of the endowment may indeed play another position besides wide receiver. This may especially be true given the nuances of the spread option offense that Michigan now runs under Rodriguez.

Rodriguez has coached several 1,000+ yard wide receivers over his career, including Jujan Dawson (Tulane), Rod Gardner (Clemson), and Chris Henry (West Virginia).

From the endowment description, as I read it, nothing should prevent (or should have prevented) Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez from issuing the No. 1 jersey to any position player he wishes, including a three-star defensive back recruit like J.T. Floyd, or a four-star cornerback/quarterback like freshman Denard Robinson.

Rodriguez could instruct senior WR Greg Mathews to accept the No. 1 jersey this fall as a senior.

It doesn’t have to be worn by a wide receiver.

Or am I missing something?

Let me close by saying that I understand what Braylon Edwards is trying to do. The main idea is scholarship and education. It’s impossible for us to measure the total aggregate payback whenever you pay something forward in life, as he has clearly done, and continues to do in exponentially larger sums than most of us will ever be able to do.

Edwards had a fantastic career at Michigan, and deserves the gratitude of the students, the university, and fans like me for what his foundation is doing.

But the No. 1 jersey was never an earned commodity at Michigan. If it was earned at one time, it does not constitute a long-time Michigan football tradition as such. That jersey number may have been “earned” by Edwards during the 2003 season while being coached by Lloyd Carr (Edwards previously wore No. 80 as a freshman and sophomore receiver at Michigan).

The truth is that “earning” the No. 1 jersey was not a tradition at Michigan at all prior to the 2003 season. Anthony Carter, Greg McMurtry, Derrick Alexander, Tyrone Butterfield, and even David Terrell were all handed the No. 1 jersey from the equipment manager as freshmen. They didn’t have to “earn it” per se.

It all depends when you start watching the movie. Edwards clearly started watching the film in 1979 when Anthony Carter showed up on campus and his father was the starting tailback.

Peeling the onion a little further back, in 1979 Michigan returned a massive number of returning starters on both offense and defense. The Wolverine football team was hands- down the major favorite to win the Big Ten championship that year. Michigan did have two notable key losses to graduation: quarterback Rick Leach and placekicker/punter Greg Willner.

But who was the greater loss? Leach or Willner?

As the 1979 unfolded, Michigan lost four games by a total of 10 pts (3.3 points per game).

Michigan missed a high number of field goal attempts and extra points in 1979, and had some of the worst punting statistics in the conference, if not the nation.

Football game crowds in Ann Arbor were electrified by a certain 5-10, “pelican-legged” kid from Riviera Beach, Florida playing wide receiver.

Michigan had found relatively productive replacements for Leach at quarterback in BJ Dickey and John Wangler.

Given the 1979 kicking game fiasco, the loss of Greg Willner–a reliable punter and place kicker for three years–turned out to be the biggest difference between an 8-3-0 season and a Gator Bowl visit, and another 10-1-0 season, a Big Ten title, and another Rose Bowl invitation.

This fact got lost in the highlight reels of spectacular catches, TD runs, and punt returns by Anthony Carter. This is completely understandable, as Anthony Carter was the greatest wide receiver ever in college football history.

But Michigan football missed Greg Willner’s consistency in 1979; that fact cannot be disputed.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez should be free to choose which player wears the No. 1 jersey, regardless of whether that player eventually turns out to be the next David Terrell, Braylon Edwards, Charles Woodson, or even the next Tyrone Butterfield.

The Braylon Edward's Foundation should be free to continue its charitable scholarship endowment to the university.

As a fan of college football at Michigan, I would love to see a Wolverine quarterback, tailback, linebacker, or defensive back wear the No. 1 jersey at Michigan. Maybe even a kicker?

Jersey numbers for the 2009 Michigan football team season will be issued in the coming months.

Check your watches. We appear to be right on time for yet another episode of controversy.

Courtney Avery selects Wolverines over “El Palo Alto”

Markusr2007 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:17:00 -0400

Mr. Courtney Avery, a 3-star, 23rd-ranked cornerback from Lexington, OH decommitted from Stanford last week and transferred his football loyalty to the University of Michigan.

Avery makes the 15th commitment for Wolverine head coach Rich Rodriguez this year. The Wolverines currently enjoy a 2010 recruiting class ranked 10th by Scout.com and 8th by Rivals.com recruiting sites.

This "Avery steal" is significant as it fills an area of dire need for Michigan – the defensive secondary. Interestingly, Avery also plays quarterback, which will only bolster Michigan’s depth at that position going forward.

The Avery commitment takes place as Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh is assembling an impressive list of 2010 recruits himself. Harbaugh's new Cardinal class already has 16 commits and is ranked 11th by Scout and 20th by Rivals.com so far. Harbaugh has been doing an excellent job this year racking up recruits on the West Coast, and giving USC and UCLA a run for their money. But replacing a solid recruit like Avery at cornerback is going to be a challenge.

The Michigan Wolverines now have between 8 and 10 spots open to recruit for 2010. Most will be likely be defensive position players.

2009 Michigan Wolverines: What to Expect and Why

Markusr2007 — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 20:35:00 -0400

Kickoff to the 2009 college football season is now 77 days away. Here are some things we should expect from the Michigan football team this fall:

Improved Quarterback Play
Just how bad was Michigan’s offense and quarterback situation last autumn? Oh let us count the ways:

1.)Michigan’s offense had a 3rd down success rate of 27.3%. The Wolverines finished 119th out of 120 Division I football teams in this category. Only Paul Wulff’s Washington State Cougars were worse on 3rd down in 2008 with 26.8% success rate. This also explains Zoltan Mesko’s sickening 80 punts and 3,436 yards in punting. Only Central Florida punted more times (88)than Michigan did (80).

2.)The Wolverines’ scoring offense was the least potent in the Big Ten, averaging 20.3 points per game. This constituted a national ranking of 98th among 120 teams.

3.)Michigan finished 109th in the nation in first downs per game with an average of 15.

4.)The Wolverines fielded the worst passing attack in the Big Ten, finishing dead last with 143 yards per game average.

5.)Wolverine passers had the worst passing accuracy in the conference with a completion percentage of 48%.

6.)Michigan finished seventh in the league in aerial touchdowns with only 11.

7.)Michigan suffered 12 interceptions on the year, 4th worst in the league.

The lone positive statistic from the Wolverine passing attack last year might have been sacks. Michigan suffered only 22 sacks in 2008. Yet when one considers Michigan’s offensive time of possession last season (10th worst in the league), this “22 sacks” number shed a somewhat different light on the truth. Had Michigan’s 3rd down success rate not been so pathetic, the offense would have surely played more downs, and likely more passing downs, and UM’s sack numbers would likely have been far higher as a relation.

Quarterback play should be an area of moderate to good improvement in 2009 because the Wolverines have two quick, accurate and mobile quarterbacks to choose from, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, to run Rich Rodriguez’s no-huddle spread option offense. Both are inexperienced at the college level and will no doubt make many freshman mistakes this coming season. But these young quarterbacks will have a strong supportive cast of playmakers around them.

Michigan’s corps of receivers is deep, experienced and talented, including senior Greg Mathews, Darryl Stonum, Roy Roundtree, JR Hemingway, Martavious Odoms, LaTerryal Savoy and Terrance Robinson. There are also freshmen WRs Je’Ron Stokes and Jeremy Gallon to contend with.

Following successful off-season coaching clinics at Oklahoma to study Kevin Wilson’s no huddle passing attack, it is a possibility that Michigan could employ more I-formation and single back sets that include one or both tight ends in 2009. Thankfully Michigan is blessed with very high talent at the TE position with Kevin Koger, Martell Webb and Brandon Moore.

The Michigan offensive line returns intact with five starters and improved depth.

The combination of these factors should ease some of the pressure off of the new Wolverine signal callers this fall. It is therefore reasonable to expect passing attempts, passing yardage and passing accuracy to improve in 2009 over 2008.
Quarterback rushing ability is also a critical component of Rich Rodriguez’s spread option offense effectiveness. Given both Forcier’s and Robinson’s past experience in a spread option offense, and considering their rushing statistics and foot speed, it will not be difficult for Michigan to improve its quarterback rushing numbers from the 355 total yards gained and 3 touchdowns scored in 2008. Improved QB rushing will have the added effect of relieving pressure off the offensive line as well as freeing up the other UM running backs and slot receivers to make plays. Opposing defenses will not be able to center their attention around any one group of skilled players as they did a year ago.

An Improved Running Game
As stated above, the entire Wolverine offensive line returns in 2009. No other Big Ten team enjoys this luxury. With a 3-9 record from 2008 in Michigan’s rear view mirror, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine the possibility that, of all Big Ten teams this fall, the core of Michigan’s offensive line might be one of the league’s better units.

The Wolverine offensive line is anchored by veteran offensive guard Stephan Schilling, center Dave Molk, and guard David Moosman. Offensive tackle was a problem area last year for Michigan with numerous player shifts. With Schilling’s moving to guard, 6-6 298 lbs behemoth Mark Ortmann will take over one tackle spot. At the other tackle position, 6-6 280 lbs Mark Huyge, a 2-star recruit, may have beaten out experienced junior Perry Dorrestein, while Patrick Omameh appears to be competing very hard for playing time at tackle as well.

Overall, the offensive line depth remains good, despite the recent departures of tackle Dann O’Neal and guard Kurt Wermers. Backup guards include John Ferrara, Ricky Barnum and Elliott Mealer. Backup tackles/lineman include Bryant Nowicki, and the freshmen duo of Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield. Tim McAvoy is a very experienced lineman who will back up Molk at center, but has started at guard in the past.

The Wolverine offensive backfield is also quite deep and experienced, but what challenges Michigan at this position is durability. Brandon Minor, Michigan’s leading rusher with 533 yards, 9 TDs and a 5.2 yard per carry average returns. Also returning are speedster tailbacks Carlos Brown and Michael Shaw. Minor and Brown are the most experienced Wolverine backs, but both have been injury prone throughout their careers. Michigan has two very good fullbacks in Mark Moundros and Kevin Grady.

Expect to see a number of freshmen backs carrying the pigskin for Michigan in 2009 - particularly freshmen tailback Vincent Smith from Pahokee, FL, who might be the shiftiest tailback on the entire team. Other highly touted freshmen backs include Fitzgerald Toussaint, Teric Jones, and Jeremy Gallon. Sophomores Jimmy Potempa and Michael Cox may also get some carries this fall.

Factoring in Michigan’s continued inexperience at quarterback, a more experienced offensive line, the return of a power back like Brandon Minor, and the improved running back depth, it is entirely reasonable to expect Rich Rodriguez to employ a similar strategy to that of his 2002 season (2nd year) at West Virginia, where the rushing attack and ball control was highly emphasized in the play calling over passing. This approach should become blatantly obvious at the beginning of the season as the quarterbacks master the playbook and slowly build confidence passing.
An Improved Defense
The Wolverine defense was supposed to be pretty good last year. It was not. 2008 was one of the worst years defensively in Michigan’s storied football program. Let us again recount the ways:

1.) Michigan finished 10th in the league in scoring defense, giving up 28 points per game.

2.) The Wolverines finished 9th in defensive yardage in the Big Ten, giving up 366 yards per game.

3.) Michigan’s gave up 19 passing touchdowns (only Indiana gave up more with 20) and registered only 9 interceptions all season long.

The sins of the Michigan defense might have easily been placed at the feet of the anemic offense. Michigan’s 3rd down success rate, unbelievable number of turnovers and overall low time of possession statistics often cancelled out any positive game momentum that might have been gained by the UM defense.

Heading into 2009, the situation on defense is tenuous. Wolverine football players will need to adjust yet again to their fourth defensive coordinator in 5 years as Greg Robinson takes over the reins. This fact just begs us to question whether any other team in the country not named Michigan or Baylor has suffered so many DC coaching changes?

What is perhaps most troubling for 2009 is that four out of the six leading tacklers for the Wolverines have all graduated. The linebacker positions will be a major area of concern. The leading tackler on the team last year, LB Jonas Mouton, does return, as well as fellow LB Obi Ezeh. J.B. Fitzgerald, Brandon Herron and converted safety Stevie Brown will rotate in at LB given the new 4-3 set implemented by new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson. However well or poorly this group performs, it should surprise no one that freshmen linebackers like Kenny Demens, Brandin Hawthorne, Isaiha Bell, Mike Jones or sophomore Marell Evans see some playing time for Michigan this fall.

The 2009 defensive line will be anchored by one of the finest defensive ends in the country in senior Brandon Graham. Graham was credited with 10 of Michigan’s 29 sacks last fall. The other DE will likely be Ryan Van Bergen who had 13 tackles last fall. The best down lineman is defensive tackle Mike Martin, who started last year as a freshman and played well, registering 20 tackles and 2 sacks. Converted fullback Vince Helmuth and freshmen William Campbell will get serious consideration for the other defensive tackle positions. Greg Banks, Adam Patterson, former TE Steve Watson and Renaldo Sagesse provide meager depth for the Wolverines along the defensive front.

Unfortunately, Michigan’s 2009 defensive line may become somewhat of a “project” in 2009, much like the offensive line was in 2008. We should expect numerous player try outs and position shifts during the course of the season. One injury on defense could cause big problems for Michigan. Two or more injuries could seriously derail Michigan’s entire football season. In such cases, freshmen defensive lineman Anthony LaLota and Craig Roh might also be called upon for an early tour of duty.

Michigan’s pass defense last year can only be described as abysmal. Michigan’s secondary was frequently torched for big gains and scores throughout the season, despite a veteran crew that included CBs Brandon Harrison and Morgan Trent, Charles Stewart, Donovan Warren and Stevie Brown. There will be a new crew of defensive backs in 2009. Stevie Brown moves to the LB position. Donovan Warren and Boubacar Cissoko will likely man the cornerback spots this fall, while the safety positions may be filled by Troy Woolfolk and Michael Williams.

Like the defensive line and linebacking corps, Michigan’s secondary is “wafer thin”. One injury could mean big trouble for this unit. It’s a little bit scary when one considers the possibility that Michigan’s 2009 freshmen defensive backs may be the best in the unit. Providing Michigan some measure of nail-biting depth are inexperienced RS freshman Brandon Smith, and true freshmen Vlad Emilien, Adrian Witty and Justin Turner.
Despite the numerous strikes against it including 4th DC in 5 years, lack of depth, moderate level of game experience, if we assume no injuries in 2009, this Wolverine defensive unit should be far better than the 2009 defensive squad! How can this be so?

A run-centric offense, fewer stupid turnovers, and improved time of possession results should be just enough to move the scales in the defense's favor. The other good news is that Greg Robinson may be one of the better defensive coordinator at Michigan since Bill McCartney.

Robinson certainly struggled as a head coach, but was a very successful defensive coordinator and DL coach in college at Texas and UCLA and in the NFL for Denver, KC and the NY Jets. He has coached some fantastic college defensive lineman and defensive backs during his career with impressive scoring defensive stats to back it up. With Michigan’s recruited talent, Robinson should turn be able to turn things around in short order.

The Most Important Thing in 2009
The most important thing for the Michigan football team in 2009, and therefore a recommended team motto must be:

“Score. Score again. And then score some more!”

Of course, scoring points is important in college football or any sport. But it will be critical for the Michigan football team in 2009.

Why?

The Michigan defense is incredibly fragile this season. The lack of depth at almost every position is very worrying. The new defensive schemes will take considerable time to master.

It will simply not be good enough for the UM offense to move the chains and gain first downs – as remarkable an achievement over 2008’s performance as that might be.

No. In 2009 Michigan’s offense must score early and frequently just to win football games this fall. To take this a step even further, Michigan must significantly increase its scoring in the first half of games by scoring more touchdowns, gaining the lead and building on it. Settling for field goals will not be enough.

For several reasons outlined above, Michigan’s offensive strategy will likely be more run-centric in 2009. If opponents get ahead early, this strategy will be counter productive as it will be difficult for Michigan’s offense to come from behind to win the game.

Unlike last season, the greatest burden lies on the Michigan offense, particularly the offensive line and running backs, to control the ball, eat clock and win football games. The Wolverine defense will take time to adjust and gel as a unit. However, just like last year’s offensive line, the UM defensive unit will likely struggle early in the season and undergo several personnel shifts, but show considerable improvement later in the season.

Some ridiculously bold predictions for 2009:

1.) Brandon Minor will rush for less than 1,000 yards in 2009. This will be less due to Minor’s ability or even durability, and more due to the higher number of rushing attempts that will go to other backs like Brown, Shaw, the true frosh, and the mobile quarterbacks.

2.) Tate Forcier will rush for 400+ yards and over 1,500 yards passing.

3.) Three Michigan running backs will have 500+ yards rushing on the season.

4.) Michigan will defeat 2 ranked opponents

5.) Michigan will lose to at least 1 unranked opponent.

6.) Michigan will finish 7-5 and receive a bowl invitation

7.) Michigan will again have a 1,000 yard receiver.

UCLA's Defense Under Defensive Line Coach Greg Robinson

Markusr2007 — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 17:54:00 -0400

The Michigan football team is now on it's fourth defensive coordinator in the last five years. Past Michigan football defensive coordinators include:

Jim Herrmann 1996-2005

Ron English 2006-2007

Scott Schafer 2008

Greg Robinson 2009

I posted a while ago a summary of Greg Robinson's historical exploits in college and the NFL.

Here's Greg Robinson's summary resume:

1975-1976 Pacific - Assistant Coach

1977-1979 Cal State Fullerton - Assistant Coach

1980-1981 North Carolina State - Assistant Coach

1982-1988 UCLA - Assistant Coach, Defensive Line Coach

1989 UCLA - Offensive Coordinator

1990-1993 New York Jets - Defensive Line Coach

1994 New York Jets - Defensive Coordinator

1995-2000 Denver Broncos - Defensive Coordinator

2001-2003 Kansas City Chiefs - Defensive Coordinator

2004 Texas - Defensive Coordinator

2005-2008 Syracuse - Head Coach

2009-? Michigan - Defensive Coordinator

What have intriged me most were Robinson's achievements at the college level. Probably the most relevant and representative to observe would be the period between 1982 and 1988 when Greg Robinson served as assistant coach and defensive line coach at UCLA under one of Bruins' most decorated head football coaches, Terry Donahue.

1981

In 1981, UCLA was coming off a 7-3-1 record in the regular season which included an excruciating one-point loss to cross-town rival USC 21-22, and a rather embarrassing showing at the Bluebonnett Bowl in Houston, Texas versus an 8-3-0 Michigan team.

The Bruins lost to the Wolverines decisively 14-33. UCLA's other key losses that year were to Iowa 7-20 in Iowa City (eventual Big Ten champion), a three-point loss to John Elway's Stanford team and a frustrating tie to Washington State 17-17.

Interesting, UCLA's 1981 defense was led by a former Michigan assistant coach under Bo Schembechler named Jed Hughes . Season football statistics for this period are sparse for most college teams, and UCLA is no exception. But we do know that under Hughes in 1981, the Bruins gave up only 197 points over 12 games (16.4 points per game).

Pretty damn good results against decent-to-very good competition. Hughes had some fantastic players at his disposal over his career at UCLA, including such characters as defensive backs Kenny Easley and Johnnie Lynn, and All-American Bruin linebacker Jerry Robinson, among many others.

1982
Bob Field was the defensive coordinator under Terry Donahue for 16 years and later because UCLA's athletic director. Greg Robinson worked for Field between 1982-1988.
1982 was Greg Robinson's first season at UCLA after holding a defensive assistant position for Monte Kiffin at North Carolina State. At NC State, Kiffin tried Wolfpack finished 6-5 in 1980 and 4-7 in 1981.

In 1982 Terry Donahue's Bruins were starting to really attract national attention for it's explosive passing attack. This was mainly due to UCLA's incredibly strong start that year of 7-0-1, with only a tie to Arizona to blemish it's record.

In 1982 Bob Field and Greg Robinson inherited a pretty good situation on defense in that several starters returned from the '81 team, including defensive tackle Irv Eatman, defensive lineman Karl Morgan, linebacker Neal Dellocono, and defensive backs Eugene Leoni, Lupe Sanchez and freak-of-nature safety Don Rogers.

A 1982 Sports Illustrated article was certainly attracted to the storyline of Donahue's pass-happy Bruin offense that year, with star quarterback Tom Ramsey at the helm. But even the UCLA defense was starting to get some notoriety as well in 1982:

"Unnoticed while the aerial offense has gotten publicity is the fact that the Bruin defense has been more solid, if less specatular than it was last year. Then UCLA played a slashing, go-to-the-gap defense that too often made the Bruins vulnerable to the run. Against Michigan in the Bluebonnett Bowl, UCLA gave up 320 yards rushing in a 33-14 defeat. But when defensive coordinator Jed Hughes left to join Bud Grant's staff (Minnesota Vikings), the new coordinators Tom Hayes and Bob Field, installed a read-and-react mode for the line. "I like it", said Irv Eatman, an honorable mention All-American tackle last season. "I think it's given us more flexibility, a better way of adjusting to different schemes." "I don't like it as much," says noseguard Karl Morgan. "Now I have to stay in there and take guys on. I felt my speed gave me the edge the old way." No one is complaining about the way Morgan is playing.....Donahue considers Morgan the heart of his defense."

UCLA Defense Points Allows 1981-1989
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UCLA	Record	Points Allowed	Games	Pts/Game	DL Coach	DC
1981	7-4-1	197	12	16.4		Jed Hughes
1982	10-1-1	231	12	19.3	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1983	7-4-1	265	12	22.1	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1984	9-3-0	248	12	20.7	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1985	9-2-1	214	12	17.8	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1986	8-3-1	222	12	18.5	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1987	10-2	195	12	16.3	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1988	10-2	190	12	15.8	Greg Robinson	Bob Field

The 1982 Field-Robinson defense was clearly not as good as Hughes's 1981 unit. However, the Bruins finished the season 10-1-1, defeated a highly-touted Michigan and Wisconsin team on the road, and lost only one game to Washington by 3 points. UCLA won the PAC-10 title and the Rose Bowl versus Michigan 24-14. The defensive units of these coaches got better with time to the point where the 1988 Bruin defense that went 10-2-0 on the year gave up a measly 15.8 points per game.

UCLA	Record	Points Allowed	Games	Pts/Game	DL Coach	DC

1981	7-4-1	197	12	16.4		Jed Hughes
1982	10-1-1	231	12	19.3	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1983	7-4-1	265	12	22.1	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1984	9-3-0	248	12	20.7	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1985	9-2-1	214	12	17.8	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1986	8-3-1	222	12	18.5	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1987	10-2	195	12	16.3	Greg Robinson	Bob Field
1988	10-2	190	12	15.8	Greg Robinson	Bob Field

Terry Donahue, Bob Field and Greg Robinson presided over some of the most successful football seasons in UCLA history. Most Bruin fans fondly remember this era for the great quarterbacks, wide-open West Coast offense, stingy defense, PAC-10 titles and incredible streak of bowl wins.

Under Bob Field and Greg Robinson as the defensive coaches, the Bruins were 70-21-5 over 96 games, giving up 18.4 points per game on average, and most importantly, winning 73 percent of the time.

In 2009 Michigan football fans are hoping that some of Greg Robinson's success and experience during this legendary golden era (27 years ago) might rub off on the 2009 Wolverine defensive unit, which last year gave up an unprecedented 367 yards and 29 points per game over 12 games.

The Rodriguez Spread Offense at Full Throttle

Markusr2007 — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 01:32:00 -0400

When Rich Rodriguez was hired as the head coach at Michigan, many college football experts and fans made the bee line assumption that to achieve real success, the Wolverines must find a Pat White clone at quarterback.

For Rich Rodriguez, it was going to be Pat White at quarterback or bust.

Michigan’s 2008 season record of 3-9 supported this view pretty well, because the Michigan offense played horribly, finishing 9th in the Big Ten and 109th in the nation in total offense.

It has been said that without a decisive, fleet-footed quarterback under center as a legitimate run threat, Rodriguez is incapable of bringing the full force of his elaborate playbook to bear on UM opponents.

This is true to some degree. But is it the whole story?

We know that Rodriguez first began his spread offense experiments as head coach at Glenville State in West Virginia, and then carried those unconventional ideas and philosophies with him to Tulane, Clemson, and then to the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Rodriguez’s strategies were not always an immediate success. And this gives one pause to ask the question:

Under what circumstances does Rodriguez’s spread-option offense really start hitting on all cylinders?

When certain key ingredients were present and well-mixed into the offensive game plan, Rodriguez showed a tremendous yield of both offensive firepower (yards gained, points scored) and victories.

All of Rich Rodriguez’s most powerful offensive units featured three key components.

I.) Quarterbacks With Wheels

II.) Tailback Tandems from Hell

III.) Slot Machines (and Quarterbacks That Crank The Handle)

Quarterbacks With Wheels

During Rich Rodriguez’s most successful coaching stints at Glenville State, Tulane, Clemson and West Virginia, his teams were frequently blessed with quarterbacks that were fast, shifty and rather durable runners.

Some of the more recent examples of quarterback running prowess under Rodriguez included:

Those are pretty impressive yards per carry for a quarterback, not to mention all of the rushing touchdowns - enough to embarrass a dedicated tailback, or at least make him jealous.

Interestingly, Rodriguez’s spread option offense, when operating at full throttle, typically involves the quarterback rushing 10 to 13 times per game, and scoring a good number of touchdowns on the ground.

Rodriguez’s 2001 and 2008 Offenses: Quarterbacks without Wheels

As previously posted on this blog, there are some startling parallels between West Virginia’s 2001 season and Michigan’s 2008 season under Rodriguez. Both were “first seasons” under his crazy playbook and conditioning program.

Both were project years involving the dismantling of Multiple I and Pro-Set attacks and the new construction of a no huddle spread option attack. Let’s look at the quarterback rushing numbers during these inaugural seasons respectively.

Mountaineer quarterback Brad Lewis was a Don Nehlen recruit and a veteran quarterback for the team. Lewis played 10 games for West Virginia in 2001. Rasheed Marshall played in only five games. Third-string quarterback Derek Jones played in four.

As a runner, the numbers show that Lewis was a non-factor in West Virginia’s spread option attack. Rodriguez was wise to leverage Avon Cobourne, the Mountaineer tailback, and try to make better use of Lewis’s passing ability. Sound familiar?

Now compare and contrast West Virginia’s 2001 quarterback rushing effort to that of Michigan’s quarterbacks in 2008:

Steven Threet played in 10 games, Nick Sheridan played 8 and Justin Feagin in just 3 games.

The total yards, touchdowns scored, and yards-per-carry results for the quarterbacks in this first year were amazingly similar.

The introduction of a radically new offensive system, combined with the presence of a very young and inexperienced offensive line (e.g. West Virginia’s OL returned one starter, an offensive guard, named Brad Nell for 2001, while Michigan’s OL returned one starter in 2008, Steve Schilling) yielded predictably poor results.

OK, so the fact that Brad Lewis and Steven Threet were not prototypical “rushing QBs” has been officially beaten to death with a club. Yet this lack of a legitimate quarterback run threat was a serious problem for Rodriguez and staff from day one.

Opposing defenses could essentially ignore the quarterback altogether, disregard option fakes, and focus their defensive efforts on the other ball carriers.

Not only that, but opposing defensive secondaries could cover Rodriguez’s slot receivers and wide receivers with full confidence that the quarterback would be unlikely to keep the ball on a draw or option play with any meaningful success.

Having an elusive ball carrier under center changes the field of play, and adds an important risk factor that opposing defenses simply must account for on every down.

While it is important for Rodriguez’s quarterbacks to have some legitimate “wheels,” the other important factor is decisiveness. Brad Lewis and backup Scott McBrien were very good quarterbacks (McBrien later became a QB hero at Maryland).

But both struggled to read, process and react to the pre and post-snap reads that were required. At Michigan, Threet and Sheridan struggled in similar ways. Even when they made the correct reads, they often did not execute the play fast enough.

The lone glimmer of hope in Rodriguez’s first year at West Virginia was Rasheed Marshall. Marshall was quite good in 2001 and showed less hesitation running the offense and making reads.

His 15 carries per game, and 4.4 yard rushing average demonstrates a more fearless approach. Marshall was something Rodriguez could at least build upon as Cobourne and the young offensive line gradually got better together.

Michigan’s Christmas Past And Quarterbacks with Wheels

In the mid 1970s, former Wolverine head coach Bo Schembechler forced defenses to account for the quarterback run threat in a similar manner. Since 1969 all of Schembechler’s quarterbacks needed to be able to run the football.

But the installation of the option I offense at Michigan in 1972 made rushing quarterbacks a staple of UM’s Saturday onslaughts.

Quarterbacks Dennis Franklin 1972-1974 and Rick Leach 1975-1978 were famously effective runners.

Note below the startling similarities in rushing attempts, yards gained, and yards per carry between Franklin and Leach of Michigan and those of Tulane's Shaun King and West Virginia’s Rasheed Marshall:

If you’re a defensive coordinator looking at these stats (and film), you’re troubled. Somebody has to “get these guys." You’re definitely going to create a plan to shut down or at least slow down all of this rushing quarterback non-sense.

Quarterbacks who can run provide an essential ingredient to the spread option offense. Lack of speed, mobility or decisiveness at quarterback is problematic for any offense, but especially for option offenses where multiple reads must be made before and after the snap, and where athleticism and durability is required to make plays.

II. Tailback Tandems from Hell
It’s fairly easy to see that Rich Rodriguez has had a historical penchant for rushing the football. Some of this is personnel-related. History has also shown that Rodriguez’s spread offense really bolts on a turbocharger once his offense features not one, but at least two, high-profile running backs alongside that banshee of a quarterback described above.

Rodriguez’s most powerful football teams almost always featured a tandem of compact, mercurial hellions that delivered the mail. And sometimes there would be more than two. Typically there will be a 900+ yard tailback, plus a second high-performance running back (350+ yards) who receives a significant number of carries, catches a notable quantity of passes, scores a worrying number of touchdowns.

Let’s take a quick look at what happened during the 1998 season at Tulane, when Tommy Bowden’s Green Wave football team shocked the world by finishing 12-0 and ranked 7th nationally while running Rodriguez’s playbook:

The Green Wave offense was balanced and powerful. The spectacularly-named Jamaican Dartez was a terror in his own right. Toney Converse served as a dangerous second back that racked up a lot of yards and was a legitimate scoring threat. Tulane’s ability to run the ball effectively no doubt helped QB Shaun King amass 3,500 yards passing in 1998. Opponents had to account for 3 very dangerous ball carriers on almost every play.

Now let’s look at Rodriguez’s handiwork as offensive coordinator at Clemson in 2000 as the Tigers finished 9-3 under the same head coach Tommy Bowden:

Travis Zachery was the lead back all year for the Tigers and racked up tons of yardage and scores. Dantzler had a spectacular year rushing the football and scoring from the QB position. Running back Bernard Rambert served as a dangerous third option, who could be ignored at the defense’s peril.

Now let’s consider West Virginia in 2002, when the Mountaineers finished 9-4:

In 2002, the Mountaineers were coming off a painful season of turnovers from interceptions. Rodriguez and staff focused on what they knew they were good at: rushing the football. West Virginia absolutely shredded opponents with Cobourne and Wilson in the backfield. Opponent defenses knew they were coming. It was not a question. Facing a tandem of tailbacks, plus a dangerously mobile QB with wheels, and a more experienced offensive line (4 starters back in 2002), Mountaineer opponents were frequently gasping for breath.

How about West Virginia in 2005?:

Tailback Steve Slaton was the highlight reel at tailback, with Pat White as the next top carrier. But check out fullback Owen Schmitt and his yards per carry: 10 yards per carry!

Here’s West Virginia in 2006:

More turf-shredding goodness, except now the Flintlock gun-toting Mountaineers have two 1,000+ yard rushers, both of them scoring TDs in the double-digits on the season. White was the quarterback, but he was such an elusive runner that he became that second tailback in the tandem. Schmitt rushed for fewer yards at fullback, but scored more touchdowns.

And finally a look at the 2007 rushers of West Virginia:

West Virginia was a better team in 2007 than 2006 because its rushing and scoring options increased with the addition of Noel Devine at tailback. With a veteran offensive line and more firepower in the backfield, the Mountaineer attack became very difficult (close to impossible) to appropriately defend. Slaton was the lead back, but his numbers went down as Devine earned more carries. Schmitt continued to make a substantial contributions from the power back spot. The rushing numbers and rushing touchdowns of this group, particularly those of Slaton and White, were so sensational in 2007, that opposing Big East defensive coordinators from that era are still having night terrors.

III. Slot Machines and the Quarterbacks That Crank The Handle

Rodriguez’s offense not only consists of an elusive quarterback who runs like a banshee, and a powerful running game supported by a tandem of productive tailbacks, it also includes an army of slot backs that spread out along the line of scrimmage like receivers.

I like to call these skilled players “Slot Machines”.

In casinos, one plays the slots to win money. In college football, one plays the slots to slice and dice at the edges of opposing defenses with the same surgical precision of your neighborhood butcher.

All that Rodriguez’s quarterbacks have to do is pull the handle, i.e. dish the ball off to these slot backs via quick hitch passes, bubble screens, mixed in with some downfield flies, dumps, posts. The slots participate in counter runs, traps and even option run plays.

With these slot positions players, amazing things start to happen. The edges of the defense start to harden, exposing a tired, confused and softened middle for the perfect strike.

Perhaps the most interesting assumption concerning Rich Rodriguez’s offensive approach, is that he always wants an “option style quarterback” to run the ball all afternoon, and that passing comes second. Passing to Rodriguez is supposedly an after-thought.

Yet there is a mountain of evidence suggesting that Rodriguez not only wants athletic quarterbacks that can run, but fast decision-makers with strong arms and good throwing accuracy. Many die-hard Michigan fans today lament the fact that the Wolverine offense under Rodriguez will no longer yield a drop-back, pro-style passer in the form of a Tom Brady, John Navarre or Chad Henne. No longer will Michigan offenses yield high yards-per-catch numbers, 2,500+ yards passing on the season, and 20+ passing touchdowns per year.

This is not true.

The truth is that Rodriguez loves passing quarterbacks. I mean he really, REALLY loves passing quarterbacks. Again let’s see Tulane in 1997-1998:

Tulane not only ran the ball exceptionally well, but they torched Conference USA competition through the airways all season long. These stats brightly reflect Conference USA’s defensive weakness to a certain degree, but they also scream out to us something like……“PASS!!!!”.

In 1998 King rang up 3,495 yards passing and 38 TDs through the air. And why not? The guy had a jaw-dropping 67% throwing accuracy, and a sickening TD-to-INT ratio. King’s own trusty “Slot Machines” were exactly that…. machines! Tulane had two 1,000+ yard receivers in PJ Franklin and Jujuan Dawson. Two!

Let’s view Clemson’s passing stats under Rodriguez:

Whoa. What happened?

Passing attempts, yardage and passing TDs were more than halved at Clemson under Rodriguez in 2000. But this Dantzler kid was something else. He ran for over 1,000 yards that year. Clemson had one main receiver target named Rod Gardner in 2000, but no opponent could completely disregard the others Tiger slot receivers, as they all demonstrated the ability to get open, gain significant yards per catch (15 yards per catch average!), and score touchdowns.

Now consider West Virginia in 2007 and the leading passer and leading receivers of that year:

Darius Reynaud was Pat White’s favorite scoring target, but judging from the numbers above, opponents would not have ignored Dorrell Jalloh, Tito Gonzales and running back Steve Slaton.

From these three selected examples, we can barely make out a pattern footprint of Rodriguez’s passing philosophy in the spread offense:

Depending on the caliber of quarterback he has, and depending upon what defenses will give up, Rodriguez is perfectly content chucking the ball 30 times a game (Shaun King). He’s also comfortable throwing 15 times and then summarily shredding opponents to dust with a blistering ground attack. Or both.

In the case of Dantzler and White, defenses were right to be worried about their running ability. But they should have been worried too about ever passing attempt they made because their 10th throw pretty much meant 6 points.

The yards per catch numbers paint a compelling picture of what these slot machines are all about, and how heavily Rodriguez’s offense depends on an athletic quarterback (point guard) to get the ball to them to create mismatches in the open field.

Out of curiosity for those pro-style offense enthusiasts, let’s briefly compare both Mr. King’s and Mr. White’s stats with those of Michigan’s record-breaking pro-style quarterback, Chad Henne, during his two most stellar seasons when he had outstanding receivers for targets: Braylon Edwards in 2004 and Mario Manningham in 2006:

2004:

2006:

I find it interesting that regardless of which offensive formation or philosophy one chooses to employ, the average yards yielded per pass completion is pretty much the same:

Completion percentage too is surprisingly similar.
Does it really matter whether you lineup in the spread and throw predominantly bubble screens and quick hitches versus lining up in the Pittsburgh Steeler’s pro set, chucking z-out fly patterns and deep posts? Not really:

In terms of scoring through the air, Michigan’s pro set offense under Carr-Debord was only slightly more likely than Rodriguez’s spread offenses to score a touchdown through the air:

Looking ahead: Michigan’s 2009 Offense At Full Throttle?

Michigan now has two quarterbacks with wheels for 2009, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, but both are completely inexperienced at the college level. One must assume a relatively high number of read errors, fumbles, interceptions and silly sacks that are part and parcel of starting freshman signal callers.

Michigan fans would be wise to come to terms with this reality as 2009 will definitely include some horror scenes from last year.

At the same time, there is greater potential for big plays via improved QB run threat, passing accuracy and improvisation that was simply not available a year ago with two pro-style quarterbacks at the helm, Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Forcier and Robinson bring enough speed and elusiveness to do some damage to opponents and otherwise drive opposing defensive coordinators crazy.

As for “tandem backs from hell,” Michigan might very well have them for 2009.
Michigan has considerable talent and depth with senior Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown and Michael Shaw returning, as well as fullback Mark Moundros.

A slew of talented freshmen tailbacks enter the fray, including Vincent Smith, Fitzgerald Toussaint and Teric Jones.

To top it off, the Wolverine offensive line is experienced and rather deep for the first time in over a decade. If anything, Michigan should regain some measure of respectability in the Big Ten for its ground attack.

As far as “Slot machines” are concerned, Michigan Stadium’s FieldTurf will be sprinkled with them. Greg Mathews, Junior Hemingway, Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum and Terrance Robinson will get significant touches this fall. Michigan also recruited molecular quark particles named Jeremy Gallon, Je’Ron Stokes and Cam Gordon.

Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee appear to be assembling the right ingredients for success. But they must find a way to properly mix them together. In time the Wolverine offense should start to hit on all cylinders and generate maximum firepower.

Michigan Racking Up More 2010 Recruits

Markusr2007 — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 02:23:00 -0400

On May 28, the Michigan Wolverines landed new commitments for the 2010 football class from DE/TE Jordan Paskorz from Allison Park, PA. Paskorz is a three-star, 59th ranked TE in the country by Scout.com.

A second commitment came from Christian Pace of Avon Lake, OH on Sunday, May 31.
Pace is a three-star, 36th ranked OG according to Scout.com.

Word on the street is that a top-rated DE is about to commit in the coming days to the Wolverines. This player attending the second annual BBQ at the BigHouse organized by head coach Rich Rodriguez and staff.

It's only May and Michigan now has 12 commitments for 2010, with 13 slots still open and 8 months until next signing day (February 2010).

2010 class is really shaping up but Michigan's remaining areas of need are plenty:

Punter - Need one good one to replace Zoltan the Magnificent.

Linebacker - Need lots and lots.

Defensive tackles - Need one or two.

Defensive ends - Have two, need one more, maybe two.

Running back - Need to find the next Avon Cobourne, Steve Slaton, and Noel Devine.

Quarterback - Got a great one with Devin Gardner, but another QB provides much needed insurance...and competition!

Secondary - Michigan needs bodies at corner and safety to improve overall talent and depth.

2010 Inaugural Opponent for Michigan Football Still Undetermined

Markusr2007 — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 18:24:00 -0400

The Michigan Wolverines have one more schedule slot to fill for the 2010 college football season. This open date is September 4th, 2010 when renowned Michigan Stadium will re-open with a new 108,000 plus fan capacity, making it the largest college football venue on the face of the planet (again). Here is the current 2010 schedule:

Sept. 4 TBA
Sept. 11 at Notre Dame
Sept. 18 Massachusetts
Sept. 25 Bowling Green
Oct. 2 at Indiana
Oct. 9 Michigan State
Oct. 16 Iowa (Homecoming)
Oct. 30 at Penn State
Nov. 6 Illinois
Nov. 13 at Purdue
Nov. 20 Wisconsin
Nov. 27 at Ohio State

University of Michigan athletic director, Bill Martin, is working to secure an arrangement with an opponent of some stature.

"We are working hard to line up an opponent for the opening game in renovated Michigan Stadium," added Martin. "We hope to have an announcement in the near future."

So let’s think about this for a second.

The opening game for renovated Michigan Stadium is going to be a rather meaningful event for the University of Michigan, for the NCAA, and for their opponent as well, because current college football game attendance records are likely to be summarily smashed on this date.

Prospective opponents would not only be interested in some of the game proceeds, but they’d also be very interested in the added publicity and notoriety as well.

So who would be some ideal opponent candidates for Michigan?

Inaugural events usually are symbolic of “the future,” but they often simultaneously celebrate “the past” as well.Let’s review some of Michigan’s key non-conference opponents over the last 50 years in Michigan Stadium:

5 Years Prior (2005): Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan

10 Years Prior (2000): Bowling Green, Rice, UCLA

15 Years Prior (1995): Virginia, Memphis, Boston College, Miami (OH)

20 Years Prior (1990): Notre Dame, UCLA, Maryland

25 Years Prior (1985): Notre Dame, South Carolina, Maryland

30 Years Prior (1980): Notre Dame, South Carolina, California

35 Years Prior (1975): Stanford, Baylor, Missouri

40 Years Prior (1970): Arizona, Washington, Texas A&M

45 Years Prior (1965): North Carolina, California, Georgia

50 Years Prior (1960): Oregon, Duke

The importance of 1927
Prior to 1927, the Wolverine football team played their home games at Ferry Field in Ann Arbor. The first non-conference opponents faced by the Wolverines in Michigan Stadium in 1927 included Ohio Wesleyan, Chicago University, and Navy

Will History Be Repeated? Michigan’s Anniversary Opponents

Navy
The “ideal opponent” in terms of historical storyline would be Navy. Navy is the only non-conference opponent still around who faced Michigan in the inaugural season of Michigan Stadium (1927). But Navy is already booked to play Maryland on September 4th in Baltimore, MD. Scratch Navy.

Maryland
Terrapins are out. See Navy above.

Oregon
Ducks have had Michigan’s number lately. It’s just us well that they play New Mexico on September 4th.

North Carolina
Michigan last played North Carolina in the 1979 Gator Bowl—a soul-crushing 15-17 loss for the Wolverines to cap off a kicking-game-impaired 8-4-0 season. Unfortunately, Tar Heels already have their home opponent sorted for September 4th: William & Mary.

California
California is certainly helping out the Gophers to open up their new outdoor TCF Stadium in Minneapolis this fall (Thank you also University of Minnesota and supporters!). Can California do the Wolverines a similar favor, citing a 30th and 45th anniversary meeting with the Wolverines in Michigan Stadium?

This is unlikely as the Golden Bears are hosting Louisiana Tech on September 4th in Berkeley. Plus Michigan tried to schedule Cal earlier, but failed, as UM would not (read: will not) agree to a home-home series with anyone right now.

Arizona
Mike Stoops is remembered for getting emotional on the sidelines during Iowa’s last-second loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor in 1983. He’s now the head coach for the Arizona Wildcats. Interestingly, right now Arizona is booked for a road contest at Toledo on September 4th!

So if I’m correct, Stoops is going to have his Wildcat team travel 1,600 miles east to play the Toledo Rockets in the Glass Bowl, capacity 26,248? Let me see, Arizona’s payout versus Toledo is x, while the payout versus Michigan would be y.

Seems to me y might be > x in this situation, no offense to the Rockets.
Add in the lacy 40 year anniversary matchup for the Killer Bees versus the Wolverines and presto!

Washington
Huskies are playing at Brigham Young on September 4th. I don’t think they’d break this date to play Michigan. Sarkisian might, but I highly doubt it.

Texas A&M
The Aggies are playing Stephen F. Austin on September 4th.
I’m sorry to say that as much as I would love for these two to play each other during the regular season, the drive for money will never allow it.

Stanford
Cardinals are booked to play San Jose State at home on September 4th. The PAC 10 teams play a 9-game round robin conference schedule. Stanford needs as many easy, home dates as they can just to qualify for a bowl.

Stanford-Michigan would be an excellent match up historically with all of the great story lines: 35 year anniversary meeting, Stanford HC was a star QB at Michigan, Harvard of the Midwest vs. Harvard of the West, but it probably will not happen.

Baylor
A lot of people I know knock on Baylor. I don’t understand this at all. It’s a good school and they’ve had some pretty cool football teams in the past (I love their uniforms and helmets!).

The athletic department almost ran Baylor football into the ground, but they appear to have pulled their head out two years ago. By the way, no school is as organized as Baylor right now about their future football schedules. The Bears have published their non-conference slates up to 2016!

Besides this, Baylor now has innovative head coach Art Briles at the helm and quarterback Robert Griffin is already a rising star. When Michigan last faced Baylor, the Wolverines beat them 38-3 and went on to win a national title. Before that, in 1975 the Bears tied the Wolverines in Michigan Stadium.

Currently, Baylor is playing a road game at TCU. It’s expensive to break contracts, but given the pay day and history, I think the Bears would be very interested in playing Michigan and rescheduling their bout with the Horned Frogs.

Missouri
Tigers are out of contention. They’re slated to play rival Illinois in St. Louis. Michigan vs. Missouri would be an outstanding football matchup to watch, but economics will never bring these two together unless it’s a bowl game.

South Carolina
The ‘Cocks have a home date vs. Troy State. I suspect ‘Ball Coach Stever Spurrier would prefer home games and victories right about now.

UCLA
Forget about it. The Bruins are playing Kansas State in Manhattan on September 4th, plus have contests againstHouston and Texas at home. Not knowing how good or bad Michigan will be in 2010, I’m guessing Neuheisel is already content with the Bruins’ strength of schedule in 2010 as it is.

Rice
Nope. Owls are hosting Texas on September 4th.

Other Potential Opponents

Pittsburgh
The last time Michigan and Pittsburgh played, Germany divided in two and Michigan destroyed the Panthers 69-0 to finish the season unbeaten at 10-0. It was 1947.

September 4th 2010 is wide open right now for Pitt, but they have three non-conference opponents already in Miami (FL), at Notre Dame and New Hampshire which is curiously still TBA. A possibility, but doubtful.

Syracuse
This is an interesting situation. Syracuse has already has fouropponents: at Washington, at Akron, Virginia Tech and Boston College. Syracuse could drop Akron for 2010 and play at Michigan for a much larger payout. But the result would be one brutal schedule for the Orangemen. So what else is new?

Harvard
OK, don’t laugh. These two teams have played each other eighttimes historically. Last meeting was 1942. It’s a high-profile opponent, just not from an athletics perspective.

Yale
Again, don’t laugh. Michigan and Yale have met eight times. The last meeting was 1939. Yale would be another high-profile opponent, but from an academics perspective.

Pennsylvania
Last meeting was 1940 and Tom Harmon won the Heisman Trophy. A September 4th meeting would be a 60th anniversary rematch for these two schools.

Army
This would be a good classic game. Scheduling a military academy may not be sexy, but it’s got certain appeal. Michigan is 4-5 versus Army all-time. The last meeting was 1962 when Michigan won 17-7.

The Cadets are an independent, so they are not a slave to any conference schedule. Also, the September 4th date appears to wide open.

Air Force
September 4th is open. The last meeting with Michigan was 1964. A possibility, but completely meh.

Rutgers
Definitely a possibility. As of now, the Scarlet Knights are slated to play at Florida International on September 4th. I'm sure they'd consider dropping this game to play at Michigan if the terms were right. Then again, Florida International is an almost certain win for Rutgers.

Powerhouse Programs and Other Candidates

Texas Tech
Scheduled home date with SMU on September 4th makes a match up with Michigan highly unlikely.

Nebraska
Home date with Western Kentucky is already set for September 4th.

Oklahoma
Home date with Utah State already scheduled for September 4th.

USC
Trojans play at Hawai’i on September 4th.
Michigan? Hawai’i? Michigan? Hawai’i? Now you choose.

Florida
Home date with Miami (Ohio) is already scheduled for September 4th.

Florida State
Non-conference schedule is already booked with at Oklahoma, BYU, Samford and Florida.

Miami (Fla.)
Already have a date September 4th with local marshmallow Florida A&M. With at Ohio State, at Pitt and South Florida on deck, Michigan is an impossibility for 2010.

Fresno State
Head coach Pat Hill has major cajones. He has repeatedly stated that FSU will play anyone anywhere. And the Bulldogs have played pretty well on the road and at home over the years.

Right now the Bulldogs have a date with Cal-Poly at home on September 4th, but Hill and his Bulldogs are usually the last NCAA team you’ll ever find to walk away from an opportunity to knock someone’s teeth out on national television (Watch this year’s Fresno State game versus Illinois in case you don’t believe me).

Boise State
September 4th is open, but looks like their non-conference schedule is already full.

Boston College
Golden Eagles are 0-4 versus Michigan all time. Last meeting was 1996. September 4th is open, but non-conference schedule may already be full.

Virginia
The Cavs last played Michigan 15 years prior and lost in dramatic fashion, 17-18. Right now Virginia has a game scheduled at USC and versus Richmond, TBA.
September 4th date is amazingly open.

Verdict:

Of course, at this late stage, Michigan doesn’t have many outstanding choices when it comes to the open date. But there are a few interesting possibilities.

Here are the top opponent candidates:

Best choice: Army
1st Runnerup: Arizona (provided game at Toledo is dropped)
2nd Runnerup: Syracuse (provided game at Akron gets dropped)
3rd Runnerup: Virginia
4th Runnerup: Rutgers (must drop game with FIU)
5th Runnerup: Fresno State (provided game vs. Cal Poly gets dropped)
6th Runnerup: Boston College
7th Runnerup: Air Force (UM’s Air Forcier vs. Air Force?)
8th Runnerup: Baylor (provided game vs. TCU is rescheduled)]

The Magic of Rich Rodriguez in Year Two?

Markusr2007 — Mon, 25 May 2009 12:50:00 -0400

Spring practice concluded several weeks ago. Michigan Wolverine football players will be participating in the so called "voluntary summary workouts."

The Michigan football team returns 10 offensive starters and just five defensive starters for the 2009 campaign. Pundits love to refer frequently to Rich Rodriguez's supposed "magic" in Year 2 of his coaching stints, and about how such magic might rub off on Michigan this fall:

1991: Glenville State 4-5-1 as HC (GVSU was 1-7-1 in 1990)

1998: Tulane 12-0 as OC (Tulane was 7-4 in 1997)

2000: Clemson 9-3 as OC (Clemson was 6-6 in 1999)

2002: West Virginia 9-4 as HC (West Virginia was 3-8 in 2001)

2009: Michigan ?

Let's quickly review Rodriguez most recent coaching assignment at West Virginia.

2001 - Year One
In 2001, West Virginia was coming off a 7-5 season under Don Nehlen and a bowl loss.
Offensively, outgoing coach Nehlen did not leave the cupboard entirely bare:

Sports Illustrated's prediction:

WVU went out and found themselves a former player and graduate as the new head coach. Not only that but Rich Rodriguez comes from a Clemson program where he was the offensive coordinator of a system that broke over 35 offensive school records.

Morgantown shows all the promises of a fireworks display come fall Saturdays. The only problem in that equation for this fall is that the entire front wall has disappeared completely.

OFFENSE: Four Starters
West Virginia lost star WR Kory Ivy, and the entire offensive line save one.
Returning starting players included QBs Brad Lewis and Scott McBrien (eventual transfer to Maryland), tailback Avon Cobourne, WR Antonio Brown and a senior guard named Brad Nell.

Rodriguez did have the benefit of a veteran crew of wideouts, however, including Shawn Terry, AJ Nastasi, Phil Braxton, and Mike Page.

DEFENSE: Nine Starters
Chris Edmonds and David Carter graduated, but all others came back.
This was the perhaps the most encouraging sign for the 2001 season for West Virginia.
If the offense sucked, at least the defense could hold the team together long enough (UM football fans might find that concept eerily familiar).

West Virginia college football prognosticators stated in the preseason: "the defense alone is going to win some ballgames."

In the end, the offense moved the ball inconsistently all season and threw a starting number of turnovers (19 INTs!). The WVU defense was one of the best defensive teams in the land against the pass, but was godawful against the run.

West Virginia finished 3-8 in 2001.

2002 - Year Two
A year later, in 2002, West Virginia was no where near the Top 25 or even Top 50 teams in the country. There were few reasons to pay any close attention to the Mountaineers following a 3-8 season and unknown Rich Rodriguez at the helm.

But something strange happened in this second year of the new system.

Sports Illustrated's preseason prediction:

He ran for over 1000 yards every season since entering the program, even during the dry spell. Senior to be Avon Cobourne may not receive the recognition most athletes at high level universities receive, but his stats are undeniably one of the reasons WVU is a legit running threat.

In a wide spread operation under the control of Head Coach Rich Rodriguez, Avon has the ability to catch the pigskin as well. He represents the total package, excelling at running, catching, and blocking. The spring showed more use of the power formation, locating a big fullback could really help and Moe Fofana just might be that guy.

With new quarterbacks lining up for 2002, Avon's legs are going to need to carry some weight. To run this complex offensive system, the man at the helm has to be athletic and a quick thinker.

Enter Rasheed Marshall, a ball player that maintains excellent speed and the ability to make decisions without hesitation. Brad Lewis was a better than descent pick for playing QB, but his game just never seemed to take hold last fall.

OFFENSE: Seven starters
Key offensive losses included Brad Lewis-QB, Cooper Rego-SB, Antonio Brown-WR, Shawn Terry-WR, Shawn Swindall-WR (backup), Brad Knell-OG, Brenden Rauh-K, Derek Jones-QB (backup- transferred).

In 2002 The QB position would be precarious: Sophomore Rasheed Marshall with four games experienced prior to breaking his wrist and unknown freshman Danny Embick. The running game would not be deep, but would be talented and experienced with Avon Cobourne and Quincy Wilson.

The OL which had one returning starter in 2001, would have everyone back in 2002 except OG Brad Nell. Jeff Berk would replace Nell.

With a QB of questionable arm strength and throwing accuracy, and no proven wideout to cash deep balls, Rodriguez would throw most of the weight of his playbook behind the now indoctrinated offensive line and the crazy legs of Rasheed Marshall, Avon Cobourne, Quincy Wilson.

DEFENSE: Six starters
Graduation losses were evenly distributed accross the DL (two), LB corps (one) and secondary (two), but this group would retain a lot of experience and talent. In 2002, Rodriguez changed the defense from a 4-4 to the infamous 3-3-5 with Grant Wiley the most damaging-inflicting tackler.

Ironically, RR new focus would be on stopping the run and hoping his experienced secondary, now in a 5-man configuration would be good enough to match the previous year's passing defense numbers.

Rodriguez's adjustments in year two worked remarkably well both offensively and defensively . The Mountaineers quite literally shredded the opposition on the ground finishing second in the nation in rushing yards (and 108th in passing yards).

Tailback Avon Cobourne had a coming out party rushing for over 1,000 and crossing the goal line 17 times alone. In fact, West Virginia found itself in the end zone 38 times in 2002. Is that number significant? Well, yes. That's a lot of rushing touchdowns.

But the delta is what makes this number most interesting in that one year before RichRod's grew rushed for only 16 touchdowns. The 2002 adjustments (year 2) led the Mountaineers to 22 more rushing TDs!

Is past performance always indicative of future results? No. Not always.
But we may be observing some interesting parallels between Rodriguez's earlier coaching jobs, the adjustment of moving from a pro-set, multiple I-formation offense and even 4-4 defenses to the spread offense and 3-3-5 defense.

There also appear to be a number of striking similarities between the 2001-2002 seasons at West Virginia and Michigan's 2008-2009 football seasons, although Rodriguez and the young Wolverine team have all their disclosures to make this coming September.

2009 Big Ten Team Predictions

Markusr2007 — Mon, 25 May 2009 10:54:00 -0400

Kick off of the 2009 college football season is only 103 days away.
Time for ridiculously early football team predictions that make for great reading amusement in the merry month of May! Here we go:

Penn State
Penn State finished a spectacular football season in 2008 under Joe Paterno, who now enters his 44th year as Nittany Lion head coach. Penn State finished 11-2-0 overall, losing first a nightmarish evening away game to Iowa by a last second FG, and then experiencing a blowout loss at the hands of the USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl. Offensively, Penn State returns only 5 starters in 2009, including explosive senior QB Darryl Clark and star TB Evan Royster. Royster is durable hellion, who rushed for a staggering 1,236 yards and 12 TDs and a 6.5 ypc in 2008. With Clark under center in the spread offense, Penn State steamrolled the competition for 5,426 yards total offense last year. Unfortunately, the offensive line and receiving positions have been hit by graduation and must be reloaded. Wideouts Graham Zug and Brett Brackett must step up their game to replace the the firepower provided by the Butler, Norwood, Williams combo last fall. The TE position is very talented with Andrew Quarless and Mickey Shuler both returning. PSU loses 3 OL starters to graduation including all-star center AQ Shipley. Penn State may field the best defense in the entire Big Ten conference. Leading tackler Aaron Maybin is gone, but the Lions return 7 starters plus star LB Sean Lee comes back into the lineup. The Penn State schedule is covered in frosting and pretty little sprinkles called Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. The Lions miss Wisconsin and Purdue on the conference slate. If PSU can rebuild the offensive line and find some decent receivers, then it should be another very happy season in Nittany Valley.
2008 Result: 11-2
2009 Bakery Basket Opponent: Eastern Illinois
2009 Falling Anvil Opponent: Ohio State
Likely Outcome: 10-2, 6-2

Ohio State
In 2008 the Ohio State Buckeyes started the season slow, due to injuries, but seemed to improve as the year wore on right up to the Fiesta Bowl finale loss to Texas. The Buckeyes finished 7-1 in conference play and 10-3 overall. Offensively, QB Terrelle Pryor will run the show in 2009. Despite losing Beanie Wells, Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie to graduation and the NFL, there is more than sufficient talent to reload at every position, thanks to consecutive top 10 recruiting classes by head coach Jim Tressel and staff. The Ohio State offensive line has disappointed at times over the last three years. This year’s group should be much better with Browning, Brewster and Cordle returning, plus Michigan transfer Justin Boren at guard, and Andy Miller possibly playing at tackle. Replacing a power back like Beanie Wells would be a nightmare for most college football programs. Not for Ohio State. The Buckeyes return with tailbacks galore including Daniel “Boom” Herron, Brandon “Zoom” Saine, as well as incoming 5 star freshman Jamaal Berry from Miami, FL to drive OSU opponents “nuts”. Perhaps the biggest reason to watch the Buckeyes this fall is defense because they return 7 starters from a very good unit. Indeed, both LBs Marcus Freeman, and James Laurinaitus may be off to the NFL, along with talented CBs Donald Washington and Malcolm Jenkins, but the Ohio State front four of Worthington, Larimore, Gibson and Heyward may be one of the best in the Big Ten if not the nation. Despite the losses of Washington and Jenkins, the Buckeye secondary has depth and experience. The non-conference schedule will be a challenge - sort of. Toledo and New Mexico State are both dead on arrival opponents. But games versus Navy and USC might at least be interesting viewing. In conference play, the Buckeyes miss both Michigan State and Northwestern. OSU may very well blast through the first 9 games with little if any damage. However, the last three games might be the toughest: At PSU, Iowa, and then at Michigan.
2008 Result: 10-3
Bakery Basket Opponent: New Mexico State
Falling Anvil Opponent: at Penn State, USC, and (dare I say it?) at Michigan
Likely outcome: 9-3, 6-2

Michigan State
There’s a lot of excitement in East Lansing these days following a 9-4-0 season under Mark Dantonio, who is 16-10 so far and entering only his third season. MSU’s 2008 season had a similar start, middle, and end. All were punctuated by disappointing defeats to rather tough opponents. California, Ohio State, Penn State and Georgia all defeated the Spartans in rather convincing fashion. There were high points, however, including glorious wins against Notre Dame, Iowa, in-state rival Michigan and Wisconsin. Things appear to have changed for MSU football in the sense that the psychological problems under John L. Smith seem to be over. The Spartans played tough all year, competed in every game, and never quit regardless of the score. Dantonio deserves credit for this improved team discipline. In 2009, the Spartans return 6 starters on offense, but lose their leading passer (Bryan Hoyer, 2,400 yards) and leading rusher (Javon Ringer, 1,637 yards). Candidates at QB include talented veterans Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol (an Oklahoma transfer). At running back AJ Jimmerson must pick up the slack for NFL-bound Ringer, or make room for talented 4-star freshmen recruits Edwin Baker and Larry Caper. Defensively, Michigan State still fields a good level of talent and experience, including four outstanding linebackers in Greg Jones, Eric Gordon, Adam Decker and Ryan Allison. The Spartan DL must be rebuilt, however, around star DE Trevor Anderson. If the Spartan defense can anchor the team long enough for the offense to gel, this should be another successful season for Michigan State. In non-conference play, the Spartans will play cupcake-extraordinaire and APR-challenged Montana State, followed by at Notre Dame, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. In conference play, the Spartans miss Ohio State and Indiana, and get to play Twisted (Big?) Sister school Michigan in the Green House.
In 2008, Michigan State’s schedule was the 15th toughest in the land. This year it looks to be even tougher.
2008 Result: 9-4
Bakery Basket Opponent: Montana State
Falling Anvil Opponent: if not Michigan, then at Illinois
Likely outcome: 9-3, 6-2

Iowa
If there’s one team in the Big Ten that could really surprise people, it would be the Iowa Hawkeyes. And if we find ourselves so surprised come October time-frame, it will be because head coach Kirk Ferentz discovered another spectacular running back on his roster to replace the incredible Mr. Shon Greene. Candidates this fall include Jewel Hampton, Paki O’Meara, Jeff Brinson and Sioux City sensation Brandon Wegher. The good news from 2008, other than the encouraging 9-4-0 finish and a bone-crushing bowl victory over Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks 31-10, is that the Hawkeyes found a great QB to lead the team in Ricky Stanzi. This was important following the departure of former starter Jake Christiansen. Stanzi, in turn, has a group of reliable receivers coming back in ‘09, including star TE Tony Moeaki, WR Marvin McNutt, plus a receiver with arguably the coolest combo-name in all of college football: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos! Most Iowa fans are excited about this coming season, and maybe they have a right to be. Normally, 8 returning starters on offense and 7 returning starters on defense after a 9-4-0 season are good reasons for more than standard optimism. But Iowa simply must find the antidote for stupid losses. For example, yes, Iowa found a way to beat hated rival Iowa State 17-5 last fall in Iowa City, but then lost inexplicably to Pitt by one lousy point. Then the Hawks proceeded to lose to Northwestern by 5 pts at home, to MSU by 3 points on the road, and to Illinois again by 3 points on the road. This same Iowa team then found a way to pull out a rabbit against unbeaten No. 3-ranked Penn State on national television. It’s all rather silly. And not a little bit annoying. This year the Iowa Hawkeye football schedule is going to be merciless. Yes, Northern Iowa and Arkansas State make nice punching dummies. The Hawks drop Illinois and Purdue on the conference slate. But Iowa must run the gauntlet on the road: at Penn State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State and at Ohio State. Oh, and did I mention the road game at hated Iowa State? The ingredients are certainly there for a very successful season. A Big Ten title is not out of the question here. But if the Hawkeyes do wind up with less than 8 wins it will be because the coaching staff failed to adequately replace tailback Shon Greene and address the problem of “closing the deal”.
2008 Result: 9-4
Bakery Basket Opponent: Arkansas State
Falling Anvil Opponent: at Iowa State and then at Ohio State
Likely outcome: 8-4, 5-3

Illinois
The Fighting Illini really disappointed in 2008 coming off a 9-4 season and a Rose Bowl visit in 2007 to a 5-7 result in 2008. Tough non-conference road losses to Missouri 42-52 and Western Michigan 17-23 prevented the Illini from bowl contention. In 2009 Illinois will feature 8 returning starters on offense including the most prolific passing attack in the league, led by QB Isaiha “Juice” Williams and WR Arelious Benn. The ground attack will be led by tailbacks Daniel Dufrene and Jason Ford. Ron Zook’s spread formation offense features a battalion of dangerous receivers including Arelious Benn, Jeff Cumberland, Will Judson, AJ Jenkins and Chris Duvalt. Defensively, the Illini return 6 starters including tackling machine Martez Wilson. Illinois finished 9th in the Big Ten against the score allowing 27 points and over 350 yards per game. The guy handling Illinois scheduling should receive a public wedgy on campus. In non-conference play, the Illini must again confront Missouri, followed by powered sugar-coated Illinois State, and an ill-advised road matchup from hell vs. Brian Kelly’s Cincinnati Bearcats. The Illinois close the year versus the rabid rogues from Fresno State. In Big Ten play, Zook’s Illini will miss Iowa and Wisconsin, which is kind of a good thing. With Williams personally responsible for over 3,800 yards and 138 points, the Illini offense has all the firepower it needs to be great this year. The missing ingredient for Illinois' success remains to be the defensive unit, which finished 9th in the league in 2008.
2008 Result: 5-7
Bakery Basket Opponent: Illinois State
Falling Anvil Opponent: at Cincinnati (Yep. And you heard it here first.)
Likely outcome: 7-5, 5-3

Minnesota
Remember when the Minnesota Golden Gophers football team was ranked nationally until November 1, 2008, and then they were defeated in embarrassing fashion by Northwestern 17-24 at home in the Metrodome on national TV? What followed was a painful 5 game death spiral culminating again in defeat, this time at the hands of Big 12 opponent Kansas 21-42 in the Insight Bowl. The Gophers finished the season 7-6. It’s painful to look back and wonder how in the hell a 7-1-0 football team could fall apart and lose 5 straight football games, 3 of which were played at home and/or against substandard opponents. But with the 2008 season now safely in the rear view mirror, it’s also kind of scary to think about what this team might become now that Brewster’s Gophers enter ‘09 with the most returning starters in the league (18). The Gopher offense will be directed by 32 year old offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch who favors pro-set over spread formations. On the field the offense appears to be in great hands with star QB Adam Weber, who has a bucket load of talented targets to throw too like WRs Eric Decker, Ben Kuznia, Brandon Green and TE Jack Simmons. The running game is bolstered by the return of tailbacks DeLeon Eskridge and Shady Salamon. The big question mark has to be the Gopher defense. Former DC Ted Roof has left Minnesota for Auburn. The new DC will be Kevin Cosgrove, for whom Nebraska fans have an overwhelming amount of affection. Cosgrove will have 8 players back on the defensive unit, but minus leading tackler Deon Hightower. Key returnees include DTs Garrett Brown, Eric Small and LB Nathan Triplett. Minnesota’s recruiting classes under Brewster have been impressive so far, so it should not surprise anyone to see more contributions from younger players on offense and defense this fall. The 2009 Gopher football schedule is certainly more masculine than in years past. Air Force is the inaugural opponent for the new TCF football stadium in Minneapolis (I’d like to personally send a huge thank you University of Minnesota and it’s supporters for finally leaving that antiseptic Metrodome! May the Twins soon follow!). California will be a tough non-conference visitor to the new stadium this fall. Game outcomes against Syracuse and South Dakota State will likely be settled in the first 7 minutes of play. In Big Ten play, the Gophers must come to grips with the fact that the two weakest teams in the conference right now, Michigan and Indiana, will not be on the schedule. Normally, coming off a 7-6 season with 18 returning starters is highly encouraging in Big Ten football. Minnesota should be able to move the ball well offensively, but defensively the Gophers have to start stopping people. Minnesota will not have 4 non-conference creampuff games to help attain bowl eligibility. Instead, the Gophers must earn eligibility through Big Ten play.
2008 Result: 7-6
Bakery Basket Opponent: South Dakota State
Falling Anvil Opponent: California
Likely outcome: 7-5

Wisconsin
Badger head coach Bret Bielema is 28-11 after 3 years at Wisconsin. Bielema badly needs a solid performance from his Badgers this fall. The bad news is that half of Wisconsin’s 22 starters are gone from the 7-6 team of a year ago, and this unfortunately includes the loss of leading rusher PJ Hill, who accounted for 1,161 rushing yards, and talented receiver Travis Beckum. Good news can be found in the return of starting QB Dustin Sherer and talented speed merchants John Clay and Zach Brown at tailback. WR David Gilreath and TE Garrett Graham both return as the leading receivers for the team, plus wideout Nick Toon is poised to have a break out season for the Badgers. The Wisconsin offensive line will again be huge, experienced and talented, so expect continued emphasis on the running game and ball control in 2009. Defensively, DC Dave Doeren has his work cut out for him with only 5 returning starters this fall. He must find a player to replace LB Jaevery McFadden who led the team in tackles. The Badger defense held opponents to 322 yards per game, which wasn’t too bad. But scoring defense knocked the Badgers to 8th in the league, giving up 25 points per game. The schedule looks pretty favorable for Wisconsin this fall. Northern Illinois and Fresno State will be tough contests, but games versus Wofford and Hawai’i will allow UW’s 2nd and 3rd string guys plenty of playing time. Someone should buy the UW scheduling manager a brewski because the Badgers miss Penn State and Illinois on the conference slate.
2008 Result: 7-6
Bakery Basket Opponent: Wofford (Yes, this is really happening.)
Falling Anvil Opponent: at Ohio State
Likely outcome: 7-5, 3-5

Northwestern
The Wildcats finished 5-3 in the Big Ten and 9-4 overall, and almost shocked the world in a close loss to a tough Missouri Tiger squad in the Alamo Bowl. This year Pat Fitzgerald’s squad returns 13 starters: 5 on offense and 8 on defense. Offensively there are huge shoes to fill with QB CJ Bacher, TB Tyrell Sutton and all of the best Wildcat receivers: Ross Lane, Rasheed Ward and Eric Peterman all graduated. The QB spot will likely be occupied by Mike Kafka who earned a lot of playing time last fall. Kafka is an elusive runner but the jury is still out on his passing skills. Freshman Dan Persa will certainly be on Kafka’s heels during fall practice, and freshman Evan Watkins might get a serious look as well. Jeravin Mathews and Stephen Simmons are capable replacements for Sutton at running back. WRs Andrew Brewer and Jeff Yarbrough have good hands and speed to help spread the field. Defensively, Northwestern loses three outstanding players including the team’s leading tackler, LB Prince Kwateng. Linebacker Malcolm Arrington and devastating nose tackle John Gill have also graduated. The 2009 defense will be bolstered by the return of DE Corey Wooten and LB Quentin Davie. The Wildcat secondary may be one of the most experienced in the conference with Brad Phillips, Brandon Smith and Sherrick McManis all returning. The Wildcat schedule is friendly to say the least. Northwestern misses both Ohio State and Michigan, and will play a list of easy opponents in Towson, Eastern Michigan, Syracuse. Only Miami (OH) might cause Northwestern to work up a sweat. The Wildcat schedule is so full of marshmallowy goodness that it should surprise no one to see Pat Fitzgerald’s team entering Spartan Stadium 5-1 or better on October 17. The latter half of the schedule is brutal, however, particularly the last 4 Wildcat opponents, PSU, at Iowa, at Illinois and Wisconsin.
2008 Result: 9-4
Bakery Basket Opponent: Towson (This is an abomination unto the Lawd.)
Falling Anvil Opponent: at Michigan State
Likely outcome: 6-6, 2-6

Michigan
A 3-9 record in college football happens to Indiana, Purdue and Northwestern. It doesn’t happen to Michigan. In 2008, the Wolverines officially joined the company of marquee programs like Alabama, USC, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Ohio State by racking up a sub .500 season in football. Michigan’s last losing football season was in 1967, when the head coach was named “Bump”, Pontiac made the coolest cars in the world, and a guy named Johnson was in the White House. In 2008 Rich Rodriguez came on the scene in Ann Arbor and changed just about everything, except the winged helmets and the fight song. Coaches were fired, practice and workout regimes were revamped, the offense was completely changed, and many players left the team. When the smoke finally cleared, Michigan’s record string of 41 straight seasons of gridiron success was ash. The incredible streak of 33 straight bowl game appearances since 1975 also ended. Few Wolverine football fans understand how a traditional and perennial football power like Michigan could go from 9-4 and a butt whipping of power-house Florida in the Capital One Bowl January to be 3-9 a year later 10 months later.

So what happened to Michigan? Let’s review some facts: Entering into the 2008 football season, Michigan returned 2 starters from the 2007 offensive squad, which was a preseason national championship favorite. That incredibly talented ‘07 team with Mike Hart, Chad Henne, Mario Manningham, Jake Long, and Adrian Arrington finished 10th in the Big 10 in total offense (10th in yards per game and 9th in scoring)! Michigan’s 2 returning offensive starters were nominal contributors in 2007: WR Greg Mathews and TE Carson Butler. On defense, Michigan returned only 5 starters from a unit that finished 3rd in total defense (3rd in yards per game and 5th in scoring) in 2007. Michigan’s 2008 schedule was also the 17th toughest in the land. Before kickoff against Utah, preliminary indications were not encouraging.

In 2008 defense was to serve as anchor for the young, inexperienced offensive unit. Instead, the reverse was true. The Michigan offense was the anchor, and it would bust right through the hull as the UM defense tried in vain to bail out the incoming water with a spoon. Injuries plagued the UM backfield almost to a man. Steven Threet, Nick Sheridan, Brandon Minor, Sam McGuffie, Michael Shaw and Carlos Brown were all hurt repeatedly during the season, missing several games, and rarely at 100% health. The offensive line was inexperienced and playing a game of musical chairs with the coaches to find the right fit. To make matters even worse, the Wolverine football team seemed determined to find new ways to turn the ball over and make critical mistakes that placed the UM defense into the most precarious of circumstances possible week after week. Michigan’s offense was perpetually stuck in reverse, averaging a conference low 20 points per game and 290 yards per game total offense. Michigan’s 3rd down success rate was the worst in the league at 27%, placing it in the elaborate company nationally of teams like Toledo (3-9) and Tennessee (5-7).

The Michigan defensive unit, on its 3rd defensive coordinator in just 4 years, played predictably awful. While the Wolverines finished second in the league with 29 sacks in 2008, it gave up an astonishing 29 pts (10th in the Big Ten) and 367 yards per game (9th in the Big Ten). With jaw-dropping defeats to Toledo by a missed FG at home and a 35 point loss to hated rival Ohio State in the Horseshoe, it’s difficult to imagine things getting much worse for Michigan.

2009 holds some measure of promise, however. First, Rich Rodriguez has demonstrated (at least historically) a positive record in year 2 of almost every coaching assignment he has ever had. Rodriguez has managed to land 2 straight solid recruiting classes for the Wolverines in 2008 and 2009. Rodriguez also successfully signed UM’s first class of new preferred walk-on players for the 2009 season, which should help fill out the roster. In 2009 Michigan returns 10 starters on offense and 5 on defense. While UM fans should expect another year of excruciatingly inconsistent play at QB, “inconsistent” should be a major step upward from 2008. As for the quarterback position, 4-star freshman recruit Tate Forcier from San Diego, CA, is the likely starter under center. Forcier has good foot speed, excellent field vision, and surprising throwing accuracy. He enrolled in January and should have a solid grasp of the offense by fall practice in August. The other QB for Michigan might be another freshman, Denard Robinson, who possesses the foot speed of Marvel comic characters, and excellent throwing credentials from operating a spread offense in high school at Deerfield Beach, FL. Veteran UM QB Nick Sheridan also returns to compete in the fall. The entire Wolverine offensive line returns and should play considerably better, with greater depth, experience and competition than ever before as each UM OL player must learn to play multiple positions. The Wolverine backfield is quite good with Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, and Michael Shaw all returning, and a talented crop of underclassmen behind them. Martavious Odoms, Terrance Robinson, Greg Mathews, Kevin Koger and JR Hemingway bless the Wolverines with both speed and good hands at receiver positions.

As previously stated, defensively Michigan will have its 4th defensive coordinator in 5 years in Greg Robinson. Robinson was the former HC at Syracuse, and was a successful DC at both UCLA and the Denver Broncos. The Wolverines return leading tackler Jonas Mouton at LB as well as All-Big Ten candidates DE Brandon Graham and LB Obi Ezeh, and senior Stevie Brown moving from safety to LB. The Michigan secondary played poorly in 2008, but has some experience returning with Donovan Warren, Michael Williams and Boubacar Cissoko. Troy Woolfolk and the two freshman Vlad Emilien and Justin Turner are likely to see early action.

Western Michigan and Notre Dame will be tough non-conference opponents, but both face Michigan in the Big House. Eastern Michigan and Delaware State should serve as confidence-building wins. In conference play, missing Northwestern and Minnesota probably doesn’t advance Michigan’s cause very much. To become bowl eligible Michigan must find a way to dramatically reduce turnovers, improve special teams play, not to mention score an incredible amount of points just to keep a thin defensive unit off the field. The lack of depth and experience at quarterback, DL, LB and secondary are all worrisome combinations that don’t bode well for Rodriguez in year 2. However, there should be just enough talent and experience offensively that the Michigan team can fully concentrate on defeating opponents on Saturday afternoon, rather than defeating itself. As fragil as the Michigan team might be this fall, opponents would be wise not to take the Wolverines too lightly.
2008 Result: 3-9
Bakery Basket Opponent: Delaware State
Falling Anvil Opponent: Notre Dame, at Wisconsin
Likely outcome: 7-5, 4-4

Indiana
Indiana finished 1-7 in conference play and 3-9 overall in 2008. Unfortunately, it’s very difficult to imagine Bill Lynch’s 2009 squad improving on that result. On the positive side, Indiana returns 16 starters for 2009, 8 on offense and 8 on defense. Defensively, a cast of good players return, including DEs Jammie Kirlew, Greg Middleton and Ryan Marrando and leading tackler on the team LB Matt Mayberry. The secondary is fortified with the experience of CB Chris Adkins, FS Joe Kleinsmith. Indiana gave up an embarrassing 35 points and over 432 yards per game, but the defense should improve with a year of more experience under its belt. Offensively, however, Lynch has to be concerned. Starting QB Kellen Lewis, who passed for 1131 yards, 6 TDs, 8 INTs and rushed for 500 more, has been kicked off the football team. Tailback Marcus Thigpen, who led the team in rushing with 631 yards and 7 TDs has graduated. Replacing Thigpen will be a running back-by-committee arrangement using the services of Bryan Payton and Demetrius McCray. The all-important quarterback role in the Hoosier spread offense will be manned by Ben Chappell, who also passed for over 1000 yards, threw 3 TDs, 4 INTs and rushed for 3 TDs himself last year. The non-conference schedule offers the Hoosiers little relief. Eastern Kentucky and Akron are probable wins, but cue the scary music once Western Michigan and Virginia come on deck. The Hoosiers do not play Michigan State or Minnesota. Indiana is going to show some slight improvement defensively in 2009 given their increased experience along the DL and secondary. Offensively, I expect the Hoosiers to play at least as well as last year with Chappell under center. I do think Indiana will beat rival Purdue in Bloomington come November, but that may not be enough for Lynch and staff to keep their jobs.
2008 Result: 3-9
Bakery Basket Opponent: Eastern Kentucky
Falling Anvil Opponent: at Penn State
Likely outcome: 3-9, 1-8

Purdue
Dan Hope takes over for Joe Tiller as head coach of the Purdue Boilermakers in 2009.
Purdue finished 2-6 in conference play and 4-8 overall in Tiller’s final season. Tiller didn’t leave the cupboard bare, but the Boilermakers do lose a lot of fire power with only 5 starters returning offensively. Hope must somehow make do without the services of QB Curtis Painter, TB Kory Sheets and WR Greg Orton. Joey Elliott is the heir apparent at QB while Caleb TerBush and Justin Siller may serve as capable backups. The absence of Sheets at running back provides opportunity for talented Jaycen Taylor (recovering from knee injury), Ralph Bolden and freshman Al-Terek McBurse to deliver the mail. WRs Keith Smith and Aaron Valentin are fast and dangerous targets that produce well in games. Defensively, Purdue returns 7 starters including LBs Joe Holland and Chris Carlino. The Purdue secondary may be one of the most experienced and eldest in the Big Ten with 4 senior starters returning, including Dwight McLean, Torri Williams, David Pender and Brandon King as starters. The Boilermaker schedule is a mixed bag of sadomasochism. Sure, the Boilermakers open up versus Toledo in Ross-Ade Stadium. But then some numbskull went and scheduled Oregon, Northern Illinois and Notre Dame in succession. Purdue successfully dodges both Penn State and Iowa in conference play.. The interesting observation will be Purdue’s play down the stretch and whether the team can avoid key injuries. Tiller’s finale as Purdue head coach came in the form of a 62-10 drubbing of their rival, the Indiana Hoosiers, in West Lafayette for the Old Oaken Bucket. That humiliation is unlikely to stand.
2008 Result: 4-8
Bakery Basket Opponent: Toledo
Falling Anvil Opponent: at Indiana
Likely outcome: 2-10, 0-8

It hath been foretold!

Big Ten Football Predictions for 2009 (An Intro)

Markusr2007 — Tue, 12 May 2009 13:55:00 -0400

In the coming weeks I will posting predictions for each Big Ten football team for the 2009 season. I'm finishing up quite a bit of research of each team, including a full review 2008 results, 2009 schedules, starting lineups, returning starters, and offensive and defensive team statistics.

From just a cursory level of research, and by combining a couple of factors, I wanted to share some information and results that I found intersting so far. I don't think it's conclusive. It's really just a couple of pieces to a larger puzzle of the upcoming Big Ten football season. These variables won't make much sense by themselves until they get pieced together within a meaningful equation.

Again, I will post a more detailed team-by-team Big Ten football summary analysis for 2009 shortly which I hope readers will find interesting.

2009 Best Big Ten Offenses
Iowa (7 returning starters), 30 pts game, 373 yards game, returning QB
Illinois (7 returning starts), 29 pts game, 439 yards game, returning QB
Wisconsin (6 returning starters), 29 pts game, 405 yards game, returning QB
Penn State (5 returning starters), 40 pts game, 452 yards game, returning QB

2009 Best Big Ten Defenses:
Iowa (7 returning starters), 13 pts game, 290 yards game,
Penn State (7 returning starters), 12 pts game, 264 yards game
Ohio State (7 returning starters, 13 pts game, 279 yards game

Big Ten Teams Improving Offensively- Team returns both best QB and best RB plus has 6 or more offensive starters returning:
Minnesota
Illinois

Big Ten Teams Struggling Offensively - Team loses best QB and RB plus has 6 or fewer offensive starters returning:
Michigan State
Northwestern
Purdue

Big Ten Teams Improving Defensively - Team returns best tackler plus has 6 or more defensive starters returning:
Michigan State
Illinois
Purdue
Indiana

Big Ten Teams Struggling Defensively - Team loses best tackler plus has 6 or fewer starters returning:
Northwestern

Big Ten Teams Losing a 1,000 yard rusher to graduation or NFL:
Ohio State (Beanie Wells)
Michigan State (Javon Ringer)
Iowa (Shon Greene)
Wisconsin (PJ Hill)
Purdue (Kory Sheets)

Big Ten Teams Returning a 1,000 yard rusher:
Penn State (Evan Royster)

Big Ten Teams Losing Starting QB:
Michigan State (Bryan Hoyer)
Northwestern (CJ Bacher)
Purdue (Curtis Painter)
Michigan (Steven Threet)
Indiana (Kellen Lewis)

Big Ten Teams Returning Starting QB:
Illinois (Juice Williams)
Iowa (Ricky Stanzi)
Minnesota (Adam Weber)
Ohio State (Terrell Pryor)
Penn State (Darryl Clark)
Wisconsin (Dustin Sherer)

Michigan doesn't pop up much with the above criteria and, in my view, this doesn't bode too well for the Wolverines for the 2009 campaign. On the other hand, if pieces do fall into place this season in only a few areas (QB, special teams, turnovers and defense), Michigan could be a surprise team. More later.

Academic Performance Rates Released for Big Ten Football Programs

Markusr2007 — Wed, 06 May 2009 19:15:00 -0400

The Academic Performance Rates of NCAA athletic programs have been released, including college football programs. The NCAA appears to be kicking ass and taking names. Just ask Minnesota, Mississippi or Montana State football progams.

College football coaches either deliver good academic performance, or pay they're going to pay the price.

The NCAA grades teams athlete by athlete, awarding one APR point per semester for staying at the school and another for maintaining academic eligibility. The association has determined that programs should hit 92.5% of their possible total, an APR of 925 that it says projects a 60% graduation rate.

Teams falling beneath a 925 are subject to initial scholarship cuts. Those falling beneath 900 face a stricter sequence of penalties: a warning the first year, scholarship and practice-time cuts the second year, postseason sanctions the third year and the school's relegation to restricted NCAA membership the fourth year.

To escape, a team must show "meaningful improvement" in its APR, plus meet at least one of three additional criteria: have a projected graduation rate better than that of the school's overall student body, prove a lack of resources or post an APR that's better than the bottom 10% of all teams in that sport.

As far as Big Ten football is concerned, Minnesota got nailed with 3 scholarship losses this year. Purdue, scoring a 926 APR, escaped sanctions by a butthair.

The two best teams on the Big Ten gridiron last fall, Penn State and Ohio State, demonstrated the top two APR scores in the conference respectively.

The Big Ten's Eventual Expansion to 12 Teams

Markusr2007 — Sun, 03 May 2009 18:29:00 -0400

The Big Ten Conference consists today of 11 universities:

Indiana
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Eleven teams is an odd configuration. In college football, each Big Ten teams plays eight conference games and four non-conference games. This means Big Ten teams miss at least two conference opponents on their schedule in any given year.

The odd configuration does not allow the Big Ten to be divided into even divisions, nor does it allow for a conference title game at season's end. Adding a 12th team would even things out in the Big Ten and allow for the revenues a conference title game would afford.

Positives of Adding a 12th team

The main benefit of adding a 12th team would be to even out the Big Ten Conference into two divisions, and provided for a 13th football game the first week of December to decide the conference champion.

A 12th team might also allow for an extra ninnth conference game, with three non-conference games. The new 12-team Big Ten conference football schedule would likely still involve "missing" two conference opponents each season, unless the league wished to play 10 conference games and two non-conference games.

This is possible to organize, but most Big Ten teams and coaches would be against it since no other 12-team football conference runs such a gauntlet.

Another positive of adding a 12th team for the Big Ten might be in securing more regional strategic advantage in recruiting.

Depending on the caliber of the 12th team, recruiting competition would likely increase tremendously for all Big Ten teams in that region, and also for any Big Ten opponents in that same region (e.g. Big East, MAC and Independents will find increased competition as Big Ten conference schools wade in their territory for more athletes).

Adding a 12th team in football would probably increase the Big Ten's competitiveness in post season play. Traditionally, the Big Ten conference has to have one of the worst post-season records in all of college football. There are many factors that might contribute to this poor performance in bowl games.

One obvious factor is the absence of a 13th game in Big Ten play. Other schools practice an additional week for their conference title game. At the BCS-level games, the Big Ten conference football teams do not get this extra week and extra game of preparedness.

Finally, adding a 12th team would likely aid not only football, but also other marquee, money-generating athletics like basketball to a strengthen the conference's power in national competition both on the field and with recruiting.

Drawbacks of Adding a 12th team

The cost of adding a 12th team might include sacrificing some tradition in scheduling. If the Big Ten were divided into North and South divisions, it's possible that for a nine-game conference schedule, some traditional rivalries would have to be forgone.

One need only look to the Big 12 where Nebraska and Oklahoma were instructed to play in two separate divisions.

The season-ending rivalry game disappeared, the teams meet occasionally during mid-season of the schedule, and the Cornhusker-Sooner rivalry has all but died. Interestingly, Oklahoma's other major rival, Texas, plays in the same division as OU (South) and plays the Sooners every year without exception.

The UT-OU rivalry has always been one of the nation's best in college football, but it's reached white-hot levels in the Big 12 over the last 10 years.

Situations like Nebraska-Oklahoma could be overcome by intentionally scheduling such rivalry games each year in the Big Ten, such as Indiana-Purdue, Michigan-Ohio State and Wisconsin-Minnesota, Michigan-Michigan State, even if the two teams might meet a second time in the conference title game. At the same time, it's entirely possible that previous Big Ten rivalries might "die on the vine".

Another drawback might be that any new 12th team may not be as attractive academically, or athletically in other sports besides football. Any additional 12th team must add significant value to the Big Ten conference as a whole. The new school should also be a natural fit from a proximity and regional point of view.

Candidates

Oh God. Here we go. There are many candidates for a 12th Big Ten team. Very few make sense from an athletic tradition and regional proximity point of view. Some candidates make an incredible amount of sense, but are just not going to happen...ever.

I will discuss below several candidates for the 12th team, why they make sense, why they don't and the likelihood of them joining the Big Ten to form a new "Big Ten + 2 Conference."

1.) The Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Why Notre Dame Makes Sense

You cannot talk about a 12th team for the Midwest-centric Big Ten without mentioning Notre Dame. There is a massive amount of athletic tradition at Notre Dame on the gridiron, on the basketball court and in athletics as a whole. Two other Big Ten schools reside in Indiana (Indiana U. and Purdue). Why not Notre Dame?

In football, the Fighting Irish are all but a Big Ten team, scheduling regular season contests against Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue (and curiously none against Indiana!?).

Notre Dame's athletic tradition and the midwest location of South Bend make the Fighting Irish logical South Bend's midwest location, the Irish are not only a natural candidate, but a preferred choice.

Why Notre Dame Doesn't Make Sense

Because Notre Dame doesn't want anyone telling them what to do. Want examples? In basketball, Notre Dame is part of the Big East conference. In football, Notre Dame is an independent, right alongside two other remaining independents Army and Navy.

Secondly, the Irish have a large national following, including their own lucrative and directly negotiated TV contracts with NBC for football.

Assuming Notre Dame football earns bowl eligibility, the Irish get paid a pretty penny for bowl appearances. Although the Big Ten conference has been rather weak in football in recent years, Notre Dame would be up against increased competition each season. That said, Notre Dame is 58-36-1 vs. the Big Ten since 1978 (.616).

If past performance is any indicator of future Irish results, the likelihood of bowl eligibility as a member of the Big Ten might very well increase for the Irish.

However, the good news about not being bowl eligible when you're affiliated with an athletic conference is that your school receives some of the spoils that Penn State earned in the Rose Bowl and Ohio State earned in the Fiesta Bowl. As an Independent, unless you earn it yourself by getting bowl eligible, you don't get jack.

Likelihood Notre Dame Joins the Big Ten?

Never. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will never join the Big Ten, so let's just remove any such thought from our brains and move on to the next candidate, shall we?

2.) The Pittsburgh Panthers

Why Pitt Makes Sense

Penn State is already in the Big Ten. The next logical choice, if not Notre Stain, has got to be Pitt. Pittsburgh fields a respectable athletic program in all sports, but especially football and basketball.

There is a long dormant rivalry between Pitt and Penn State that would be recharged by Pitt's introduction. Pitt is regionally proximate to the other schools and would increase Big Ten football and basketball recruiting success in the talent-rich states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland.

Why Pitt Doesn't Make Sense

Pittsburgh's football program has lost it's luster considerably since the early 1980s and has had difficulty recovering. Penn State's program has outgrown them and performed far better nationally than the Panthers have.

Then Pitt joined the Big East and sunk further into mediocrity, making mini-regional rivalries become more important such as the matchup with conference foe West Virginia. Pitt's basketball success in recent years has been noteworthy and it will be interesting to see whether it can continue given the high level of competition in the Big East.

Likelihood Pitt Joins the Big Ten?

Of all of the available and realistic candidates, Pitt really does make the most sense and should join the Big Ten conference.

3.) The Syracuse Orangemen

Why Syracuse Makes Sense

Regionally proximate. Strong basketball tradition. Some good football history (Art Monk, Bill Hurley, Joe Morris, Donovan McNabb) , although, aside from a major upset of Notre Stain last year, Syracuse has been the armpit of college football.

Syracuse has played a few intersectional games with Big Ten opponents over the years like Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa, but there are no established mini-rivalries, not even in basketball.

Syracuse' success in football and basketball could change if they joined a more competitive conference than the Big East. In the case of joining the Big Ten, Syracuse's basketball fortunes would likely improve while their football wins would likely decline.

Why Syracuse Doesn't Make Sense

Athletically speaking, Syracuse' relevance in athletics is limited to basketball (until Jim Boeheim retires). The Syracuse Orangemen are today part of the Big East, and from this blogger's point of view are way better served in that conference.

Syracuse offers the Big Ten very little value in terms of athletics, academics. Syracuse is about as regionally proximate as Pitt to other Big Ten teams.

The other problem with Syracuse is their football venue, the Carrier Dome. The Big Ten finally rid itself of the MetroDome in Minneapolis. Any addition of Syracuse should include a clause demanding that a proper, modern, outdoor facility be constructed for Syracuse football.

From a recruiting standpoint, the addition of Syracuse doesn't necessarily add any new recruiting grounds or strengthen existing regional recruiting pipelines for the Big Ten.

Likelihood Syracuse Joins the Big Ten

In my view, the Big Ten conference is better off with 11 teams than adding a Syracuse. Likelihood is very low, or just a few percentage points above zero.

4. Rutgers

Why Rutgers Makes Sense

Rutgers doesn't make sense. The schools is based in East Rutherford, NJ and close to NY city. There are few if any rivalries or connections in athletics, aside from some games played against Penn State in the distant past.

Why Rutgers Doesn't Make Sense

Rutgers is an eastern, coastal school and really does belong in the Big East in terms of football. Rutgers is not proximate to any Big Ten schools, aside from Penn State.In basketball, well, does Rutgers even play basketball?

Likelihood Rutgers joins the Big Ten?

A few percentage points below Notre Dame ever joining, which means never. Rutgers is in the Big East conference. Right where they belong.

4. The Missouri Tigers

Why Missouri Makes Sense:
Wait a minute. The Missouri Tigers belong to the Big 12, don't they? What the....?

Well, yes they do. But Missouri has always been the red-headed step child when they were part of the Big Eight and even today as member of the Big 12 North division. Nobody liked them.

And Missouri certainly didn't like anybody else either. During the 1970s and 1980s, Big Eight powers Oklahoma and Nebraska sweated bullets when they faced the Missouri Tigers on the gridiron.

Actually, of all the candidates listed so far none provide quite the complete athletic package of both strong football and basketball programs and traditions that Missouri does. The Tigers are bitchin' in both. Columbia is regionally proximate to most Big Ten schools, and offers opponents tough venues in football and basketball.

In college football, Missouri's program has been on the rise recently while playing in a tough conference (Big 12). In basketball, Missouri remains a respectable and competitive force. The Tigers have an existing non-conference rivalry with the Fighting Illini of the Big Ten.

Why Missouri Doesn't Make Sense

Two main arguments against Missouri:
1.) Missouri is already part of Big 12 and
2.) Distance.

In reverse order, the Tigers campus is 240 miles south of Iowa City, and some Big Ten traditionalists might say that's just too far away for the Penn State's, Ohio State's and Michigan's to travel. I disagree.

Minneapolis, Minnesota is 830 miles from State College, PA. Columbia, MO is 778 miles from State College, PA. Nittany Lions and Gopher fans travel well. So do Missouri Tiger fans. Distance is not an big issue.

And first, Missouri has it's Big Eight-based "Border War" rivalry with Kansas. Missouri also has it's intersectional hatreds for Oklahoma and Nebraska as well. Missouri is part of the Big 12 and fits nicely in the Big Eightish North Division. But Missouri could continue such rivalries in non-conference play as a member of the Big Ten.

Also, the Big 12 can easily add good, regional programs from the state of Texas to replace a Missouri such as SMU, TCU, Houston or Rice. Even Utah, BYU and Colorado State come to mind here as meaningful replacements. The Big 12 would not want to lose Missouri. But if the choice were open to the Missouri Tigers, I think they might pounce on it.

Likelihood Missouri Joins the Big Ten

If Pitt were the most likely to join and Notre Dame is the least likely to join, then I would put Missouri in second place behind Pitt in terms of all candidates.

5.) The Iowa State Cyclones

Why Iowa State Makes Sense
They have a good basketball tradition and an annual rivalry with Iowa.
They are regionally proximate and low risk.

Why Iowa State Doesn't Make Sense
Iowa State is a small university and athletically hasn't had much to crow about since Earle Bruce left town in 1979. Their value-add to the Big Ten is nominal and would be equivalent to adding another Minnesota-level athletic program to the conference.

Likelihood Iowa State joins the Big Ten
Probably never, but much more likely than a Rutgers, Notre Dame or a Syracuse.

Other candidates and some quick notes:

Boston College

I like this school very much. It's got a decent athletic program history, is part of the ACC, and has good academics. It's also got some minor history with Big Ten teams like Penn State and Michigan on the gridiron. The academic upside is high. The athletic upside is nominal.

Marquette University

No football program. And that's a shame. I will always call these guys the Warriors. We don't need any more "Eagles" mascot teams for crying out loud. In basketball, the Marquette Golden Eagles would be an outstanding addition to the Big Ten.

In football, well they'd offer the Big Ten zero, unless Marquette brought their football program back from the dead. Not that I don't believe Milwaukee and the state of Wisconsin is too small a football market, but it's risky. Indiana can somehow miraculously support three Division 1A college teams, and Wisconsin can't? Whatever.

Louisville

Good basketball school. Improved football program over the last several years. Regionally proximate as Kentucky borders southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

Summary

The Big Ten should add a 12th team. The conference should do all it can to preserve the intersectional rivalries of Purdue-Indiana, Michigan-Ohio State, Michigan-Michigan State, Penn State-Ohio State.

The Big Ten conference should also do what it can to promote new rivalries. The best candidate for the Big Ten expansion is Pittsburgh. The second best candidate is Missouri. The least likely candidates are Notre Dame and Rutgers.

Michigan's Inexperienced Quarterback Situation 2008: UM's Been Here Before

Markusr2007 — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 16:25:33 -0400

One of the main reasons the University of Michigan football team is predicted by so many sports media outlets, college football experts, pundits and fans to finish at the bottom of the Big Ten conference in 2008, is because the Wolverines simply don't have a quarterback to lead them.

That's right. Michigan is officially quarterback-less for the 2008 college football season. Chad Henne, who became the Wolverines' starting quarterback the very second he first arrived on the Michigan campus back in 2004, has finally graduated and has been drafted by the NFL's Miami Dolphins.

Former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr had landed five-star recruit and top-ranked pro-style quarterback in the nation Ryan Mallett back in 2006. But Mallett left UM after the 2007 season to play for new Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino.

So with no Chad Henne and no Ryan Mallett, who in Sam Hill is going to lead the Wolverines' new spread option offense in 2008?

Outside of Rich Rodriguez's staff, including new UM quarterback coach Rod Smith, nobody really knows the answer to this question with any degree of certainty.

There will no doubt be multiple factors that weigh in on RR's decision: Leadership skills, arm strength, throwing accuracy, understanding of the new offense, reading of defenses, mobility, timing and field vision.

But one factor that neither Rodriguez nor Smith need to consider in their decision is experience, since Michigan's 2008 roster effectively has none at quarterback.

Actually, it's not the first time that Michigan has entered a college football season with zero college game experience at quarterback. It's happened many times before:

1975 Michigan vs. Wisconsin in Madison. Result: Michigan 23, Wisconsin 7. The UM quarterback? Freshman Rick Leach made his UM start in this game. Not the first dual-threat quarterback for the Wolverines, but undoubtedly one of the most decorated. Michigan finished 8-2-2 in 1975.

1981 Michigan vs. Wisconsin in Madison. Result: Michigan 14, Wisconsin 21. Sophomore quarterback Steve Smith in led No. 1 ranked Michigan in this game, but couldn't overcome a vicious Badger defense.

Smith went on to become one of Michigan's finest career dual-threat quarterbacks. Michigan finished 8-4-0 in 1981.

1984 Michigan vs. Miami (Fla.) in Ann Arbor. Result: Michigan 22, Miami (Fla.) 14. Sophomore Jim Harbaugh in his first start led 14th ranked Michigan vs. top ranked Miami (Fla.) in his first start for the Wolverines.

Jim Harbaugh overcame a broken arm injury in 1984 to become the next in a long line of great championship quarterbacks. The injury-ridden Wolverines finished 6-6-0 in 1984.

1987 Michigan vs. Notre Dame. Result: Michigan 7, Notre Dame 26. Junior UM quarterback Demetrius Brown never started a game prior to this season opener against the Irish.

Brown was soon much maligned by UM fans during 1987 due to his inopportune interceptions. But Brown steadily improved at the helm and led Michigan in big wins over Alabama in the Hall of Fame Bowl, and over Ohio State in Columbus in 1988 and in the 1989 Rose Bowl over USC.

Michigan finished 8-4-0 his first year as starter in 1987 sharing time with Michael Taylor.

1990 Michigan vs. Notre Dame. Result Michigan 24, Notre Dame 28. UM quarterback Elvis Grbac's career commenced with a loss to Notre Dame in Ann Arbor, but his name is synonymous with Big Ten championships at Michigan.

Grbac then played in the NFL. Michigan finished 9-3-0 his first season as starter.

1993 Michigan vs. Washington State. Result Michigan 41, Washington State 14. Star QB Todd Collins started his first game and lead the Wolverines to 8-4-0 his first season.

1995 Michigan vs. Virginia. Pigskin Classic. Result: Michigan 18, Virginia 17. True freshman Scott Dreisbach led Michigan to a thrilling last second win in Ann Arbor. Wolverines finished 9-4-0 in 1995.

1998 Michigan vs. Notre Dame. Result: Michigan 20, Notre Dame 36. Michigan quarterback Tom Brady started his first game in defeat, but went on to become one of the finest UM quarterbacks ever and an NFL great. Michigan finished 10-3-0 in 1998.

2001 Michigan vs. Miami (OH). Result: Michigan 31, Miami (OH) 13. Sophomore QB John Navarre started his first game for Michigan, then proceeded to break every single passing yardage record ever at UM. Michigan finished 8-4-0 in 2001.

2004: Michigan vs. Miami (OH). Result: Michigan 43, Miami (OH) 10. Freshman Chad Henne led UM in a decisive win in his first start for the Wolverines. Michigan wound up 9-3-0 in 2004.

Could 2008 be pretty much like previous Michigan seasons above? Could an inexperienced, no-name quarterback at the helm, an experienced backfield, talented receivers, and a veteran defense in 2008 again lead Michigan to success on the gridiron and maybe a bowl?

The answer to that question is that such a result has certainly been accomplished before.

Below are all of the candidates for quarterback at Michigan for the 2008 football season. It is a subjective, all-inclusive list ranked in order of likelihood for the UM depth chart:

QB Steven Threet, Soph., 6'5", 228, four-star, ninth ranked QB in nation.

QB Carlos Brown, Junior, 6'0", 190, four-star, 24th ranked RB in nation (played QB senior season of H.S., 1,512 yards and 21 rushing TDs, 546 yrd passing and seven TDs)

QB Justin Feagin, Fresh., 6'1", 195, two-star, 93rd ranked S in the nation (plays QB and S)

QB Brandon Smith, Fresh., 6'2", 210, four-star, fourth ranked S in the nation (played QB and WR). 4.5 speed.

QB Nick Sheridan, Soph., 6'1", 201, walk-on

QB David Cone, Soph. 6'6", 210, three-star, 23rd ranked QB in the nation. Ran option offense in high school.

It's almost always better to have a seasoned, veteran quarterback under center. No question. But the Michigan Wolverines appear to have some talented and rather dangerous characters available to Rodriguez and Smith at the quarterback spot, which no one knows much about.

The question is whether any of the above players would step up and contribute successfully under the new offensive system.

Michigan is indeed thin at QB in 2008, but not anymore so than other teams in the Big Ten.

Actually, an argument could be made that had former head coach Lloyd Carr and offensive coordinator Mike DeBord remained in charge for 2008, the UM quarterback position would likely have been equally mysterious, since Ryan Mallett would probably have stayed at UM, his heir apparent status not an automatic given the 2007 performance, and Steven Threet would have competed well against Mallett for the starting role in a pro-style offense.

Is Michigan OK at quarterback for 2008? The jury is still out. Way out.

But Michigan football fans and detractors alike should at least know that a new, no-name quarterback at the helm is a serious challenge that many college teams must deal with. It's also an opportunity to set the stage for future success.

2008 just happens to be Michigan's turn to introduce a new quarterback.

Michigan Football: Six Reasons Why the Wolverines Will Succeed in 2008

Markusr2007 — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 21:57:20 -0400

The college football annuals for 2008 have been on the shelves for weeks now, and the outlook for the Michigan Wolverine football team reads pretty bleakly indeed.

According to the nation's smartest and most experienced sports writers and college football pundits and statisticians, the stars are finally aligned perfectly for the most victorious college football program in the land to fail in colossal and embarrassing fashion.

Why?

Let us count the ways in which Michigan will fail.

Michigan features a new head coach with entirely new football staff, an entirely new offensive scheme, a new defensive scheme, and a completely overhauled strength and conditioning program.

The Wolverines return only two starters on offense, and depending on the injury-ridden depth chart of 2007, Michigan only returns six starters on defense. Michigan also loses four Heisman candidates from the 2007 team to graduation: QB Chad Henne, TB Mike Hart, WR Mario Manningham, and OT Jake Long.

In addition, a number of key players left the Michigan team early due to attrition or the beckoning of the NFL. There have been charges made publicly against new Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez by one offensive lineman that Rodriguez and his massive coaching staff all completely lack "family values."

Michigan Stadium itself is undergoing massive construction right now. It serves as a gigantic, symbolic metaphor for the state in which the Michigan football program finds itself in 2008: Under Construction.

Let us also not forget that Michigan lost its season opener last year in embarrassing fashion to FCS school and Division I-A national champion Appalachian State 34-32 in the Big House. The bells are tolling to signal a similar outcome August 30 when Mountain West powerhouse Utah clashes with Michigan in Ann Arbor.

One would be hard-pressed to find a year in Michigan's storied football past where there was more doom and gloom projected for the Wolverine football team. 1967 was the last year Michigan finished the football season below .500 in victories.

Indeed, college football pundits nationally appear convinced that Michigan will not be competitive in the Big Ten this fall, will fail to win six games, and will in all likelihood fail to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 1967, ending Michigan's consecutive bowl attendance at 32.

(Michigan actually would have qualified every year since 1968, but the Big Ten limited bowl bids to only the conference champion up to 1974. This practice ended in 1975, which is when UM's bowl streak began.)

While the supply of doom and gloom for the 2008 Michigan football team is sky high right now, I'm not buying it.

Here's why:

1.) Better coaching under Rich Rodriguez

Rodriguez hasn't yet coached a game at Michigan, but I believe that he and his extensive staff of assistant and position coaches will do more for and yield better performance from Michigan's current roster of student football athletes than Lloyd Carr would have.

The reason I believe this is that Rich Rodriguez has a proven history in his Tulane, Clemson, and West Virginia coaching stints of achieving more with less in terms of winning with less player experience and less raw talent.

Michigan's starters on offense are for the most part four- to five-star recruited athletes ranked in the top 25 at each position. Rodriguez did most of his winning at West Virginia, Clemson, and Tulane on the backs of mostly three-star recruits that were ranked below the top 50 at their positions.

2.) Improved Team Strength & Conditioning

Michigan S&C coach Mike Barwis was already a legend in his own right at West Virginia. He has now transformed the UM S&C program for the better.

It will take time to see the full results, but there are immediate improvements already to be seen with the UM OL and DL players, with marked gains in strength, speed, flexibility, and weight loss. Michigan football will be a lot leaner and faster than ever before.

This is another example of the current coaching staff of Rich Rodriguez bringing Michigan football into the 20th century by increasing speed and endurance to play a full 60 minutes or more of intense, no-huddle football.

The conditioning and focus on flexibility will also most certainly improve Michigan's injury record, which has been nothing short of horrific under former S&C coach Mike Gittleson. See Michigan's 2005 and 2007 football season and rosters for an exhaustive list of exhibits.

3.) A new offensive philosophy: Score on every play

Rich Rodriguez brings in one of the most effective offensive schemes in football to Ann Arbor—the spread option offense. Rodriguez states that he is determined to fit the offensive scheme to the talent of the current Michigan personnel at QB, WR, OL, and running back.

Rodriguez explains that the new offense is designed to force defenses to defend the entire 50-yard width of the field, to get the football into the fastest players' hands as quickly as possible, to utilize misdirection, and to score on every play.

The goal is to score on every play.

This is completely new and different from the Lloyd Carr regime, with his offensive coordinators Terry Malone and the now infamous Mike DeBord. Michigan's offense under past OC leadership was predictable, to say the least, and lacked any sense of urgency to score or strategic innovation.

Michigan's offensive complexity and inventiveness last fall could be summed up in two plays: Hart zone run off left tackle and Mario Manningham flag pattern pass play. That's about it.

Michigan offenses have indeed been blessed with talented quarterbacks, tailbacks, O-linemen, and wide receivers over the years. But Michigan averaged 28, 29, and 29 points per game in 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. Under Mike DeBord, the emphasis was on burning the clock and keeping opposing offenses off the field, not scoring points.

This is because HC Lloyd Carr feared being viewed by opponents as "running up the score." Lloyd's philosophy was burn clock, score as little as freaking possible (only what you need to), and then have the defense hang on desperately to victory through the fourth quarter by bloodied fingernails.

With four Heisman candidates in DeBord's offensive arsenal in 2007, Michigan finished a pathetic ninth in the league in total offense. Ninth! Michigan lost all of these "Heisman candidates" to graduation and the NFL.

Even with Michigan's less experienced QB and offensive line, these statistics can only improve in an otherwise weak Big Ten conference and with RR's new emphasis on trying to score touchdowns every possession.

4.) A new defensive philosophy: Greater emphasis on sacks and turnovers

Scott Schafer is the new defensive coordinator for Michigan, replacing Ron English (fired and now DC at Louisville). Schafer brings in a 4-3 flexible defensive core scheme, the same one used effectively earlier in his career at Western Michigan in 2006, when the Broncos led the nation in sacks.

Defensively, Michigan gave up 21, 16, and 21 points per game in 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. Michigan returns its front four intact and has very high-rated talent two and three deep. Michigan may very well lead the Big Ten in sacks and forced turnovers this fall.

5.) Michigan's inexperience and Michigan's talent

A lot of college football experts focus on three variables that, when combined, will almost certainly equate to Michigan's football season destruction in 2008: an inexperienced quarterback, an inexperienced offensive line, and a new offensive system (the spread option attack).

While I understand and agree to some degree about the player experience factor, many teams have performed well and achieved successful seasons without one or two years' game experience under their belts. I fully expect plenty of offensive miscues in 2008, some of which may lead to disappointing Michigan defeats.

One might also consider that projected starting UM quarterback Steven Threet was a four-star recruit, ranked 13th in the country at his position. He is not Pat White, nor is he Chad Henne. But do we now automatically insert an equal sign to failure?

Threet is an unknown, as are his backups Justin Feagin and Nick Sheridan. Michigan has had freshman and inexperienced quarterbacks start before with fairly good results. Rod Smith is an excellent QB coach for this offense with a proven track record of success at South Florida and West Virginia.

Let us also consider the Michigan offensive line, their upperclassmen status, and talent ranking by position:

LT Cory Zirbel, Sr (four star, 20th-ranked)

LG Tim McAvoy, Sr (four star, 14th-ranked)

C David Moosman, Sr (four star, 17th-ranked

RG Steve Schilling, Jr (five star, 3rd-ranked)

RT Mark Ortmann, Sr (three star, 45th-ranked)

On the face of it, that's not exactly a reason to slit your wrists if you're a Michigan football fan. Most college football teams in Division I would kill to have that kind of starting OL lineup.

In addition, Michigan's offensive line will run at a no-huddle pace, keeping defenses off guard and reducing defensive preparedness and substitutions. UM's offensive line will also no longer need to sustain blocks for two to three seconds for Chad Henne's three or four step drops anymore. The football must now get into space quickly, so we're talking one to two step drops and go.

For rushing plays, technique blocking will be the order of the day for drive blocking, tackle traps, and guard pulls. That's not easy, but not impossible either. Greater endurance, strength training, and speed improvements will only help this inexperienced group get better as the year progresses.

Oh, and for the record, Schilling, Ortmann, and McAvoy all have gametime experience. Schilling is the anchor for the line.

6.) Schedule

Seven of Michigan's 12 games are at home this year. Michigan did lose three home games last year (App State, Oregon, and Ohio State) and lost one away (at Wisconsin).

Michigan played remarkably well under Lloyd Carr on the road in big games versus Top 10 opponents. It remains to be seen whether Rodriguez can instill the same motivation and performance in this young UM team.

The toughest bouts this year in Ann Arbor will be Utah, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. The toughest road games will be at Penn State, at Purdue, and at Ohio State. Michigan's schedule is considered one of the toughest in the Big Ten (second only to Michigan State's in difficulty rating).

Prediction:

vs Utah L 21-24

vs Miami (OH) W 38-14

at Notre Dame L 14-20

vs Wisconsin W 24-21

vs Illinois W 28-21

vs Toledo W 45-10

at Penn State W 27-23

vs Michigan State L 31-35

at Purdue L 14-21

Northwestern W 21-17

at Ohio State L 22-24

Season Record: 7-5