Bleacher Report - Articles by Chris DiLeo

The Top Five Slot Receivers in the NFL

Chris DiLeo — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 20:58:15 -0400

Slot receivers are often under-appreciated because rarely do they produce inflated statistics, and seldom do they ever get selected to a Pro Bowl. However, these receivers often make big plays to keep drives alive, and can be valuable in keeping the attention away from the elite receiving targets on the team. In 2007, Wes Welker caught 112 balls for 1175 yards and eight touchdowns as a slot receiver for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. This is an unusual case, as it is uncommon for a No. 3 receiver to produce these type of numbers. More likely, slot receivers on a good year will produce 40-50 receptions and roughly a handful of touchdowns. This slide show is dedicated to predicting which players will make these modest, yet important contributions. For example, in 2008, players such as Nate Washington of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Patrick Crayton of the Dallas Cowboys were both players who made solid contributions at opportune times, yet were far from being considered stars. Without any further introduction, here are the five wide receivers who I believe will earn a role as a slot receiver, and will be the most valuable at their position in 2009.

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Fantasy Football: After the Big Three, Which Tight End Should You Draft?

Chris DiLeo — Sat, 30 May 2009 12:08:48 -0400

Getting consistent and valuable production from tight ends is very difficult in fantasy football. Most years there are only a few players at this position that produce worthwhile points on a weekly basis.

This year is no exception. Getting a player like Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, or Antonio Gates is a great addition to a fantasy roster. The only problem is that it will cost the owners who draft them an early selection, most likely a third or early fourth round pick.

Depending on the flow of the draft, it sometimes makes good sense to draft one of the top tight ends during those early rounds.

Many times, when 30-40 players are off the board, it seems wise to grab one the few elite tight ends, since the alternative would be selecting a low-end number three running back, a wide receiver who can be lumped with about a dozen others of similar value, or a decent quarterback that you know will be available for a few more rounds.

I can speak from experience that it can be quite exhilarating to be one of the few teams in a fantasy league to get valuable points from a tight end.

However, sometimes the flow of the draft prevents us from having the opportunity to grab one of those elite tight ends, at least not without “reaching” for one of them.

For the teams who do not draft a top tight end early, I would advise targeting Brent Celek of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Celek is entering his third year in the NFL, and is primed for a breakout season. He will likely be available in the middle to late rounds, making him an excellent value pick.

With the departure of veteran L.J. Smith, the starting job belongs to Celek. He has impressed teammates and coaches with his dedication and teamwork. He developed an excellent rapport with quarterback Donavon McNabb as the season wore on in 2008.

In fact, in three playoff games last year, Celek was the Eagles’ leading receiver with 19 receptions for 151 yards and three touchdowns. He set a franchise playoff record in the NFC Championship game by hauling in 10 catches which he turned in for 83 yards and two touchdowns.

During the regular season Celek produced 27 receptions for 318 yards and a touchdown, which is not too bad considering he started only seven games, and also had to share playing time with Smith and Matt Schobel.

On the Eagles' web site, offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg had this to say about Celek: "Brent is a player who is a consistent performer. I think it is important to know what Brent's strengths are and you work him there. He produces. He is consistent. He is dependable.

You call his number and he's going to get it done. You call a run to his side and he's going to get it (block) done. You call a run away from him and he is going to get the cutoff block. He is just so consistent and dependable, and there is a trust factor that goes into it. Coaches and the rest of the players naturally trust the man to get the job done, and that is so very important."

That statement gives me plenty of confidence that Celek will be a key contributor in the Eagles’ pass-happy offense. McNabb showed down the stretch of the 2008 season that he has plenty of trust in Celek, and he will look for him in the red zone.

The downside is that there are plenty of weapons in the Eagles offense, with Brian Westbrook, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, and rookie Jeremy Maclin. This means Celek has a lot of competition for McNabb’s targets.

Also, there are plenty of talented second-tier tight ends such as Dallas Clark, Kellen Winslow, Chris Cooley, Owen Daniels, John Carlson, Zach Miller, and Greg Olsen.

However, while other fantasy teams are drafting these players, I prefer to build my running back and wide receiver depth, and perhaps draft a quarterback or two.

Then I will target Celek as the draft enters the middle rounds. I believe Celek will match or out-produce most of the second-tier tight ends, and he can be drafted anywhere from four to eight rounds later.

While Celek is not ready to be an elite tight end in 2009, he will be an excellent complement to a fantasy team built with quality starters and solid depth.

Projection: 55 receptions, 610 yards, 8 touchdowns.

Will Jeremy Shockey Re-Emerge As An Elite Tight End in 2009?

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 26 May 2009 14:33:52 -0400

As Jeremy Shockey enters his first full offseason with the New Orleans Saints, it is beginning to appear as if he has reached a critical juncture in his career.

Jeremy Shockey’s NFL career began when he was the selected as the fourteenth overall pick by the New York Giants in 2002.

As a rookie, Shockey lived up to high expectations as he recorded 74 receptions for 894 yards and two touchdowns. He earned All-Rookie honors, was selected to the Pro Bowl, and was immediately considered as one of the up-and-coming elite tight ends in the league.

Success would continue for Shockey, as he was selected to the Pro Bowl in four of his first five years with the Giants. In fact, he tallied 192 receptions for 2,180 yards and 20 touchdowns in just three seasons between 2004 and 2006.

The negative side of Shockey was his propensity for animated gestures on the playing field when he was upset at his teammates. Most incomplete passes that were not thrown in his direction would be followed by flailing arms and plenty of screaming, often creating an embarrassing situation for quarterback Eli Manning.

It seemed apparent that the Giants’ organization was willing to tolerate Shockey’s antics and off-field distractions as long as he produced on the football field.

However, in 2007 everything changed. Shockey broke his fibula during week 15, and was forced to miss the remainder of the season.

Despite the pessimism created by Shockey’s season-ending injury, the Giants won the NFC Title that year, and then went on to shock the world by beating the previously undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

This success made the Giants realize their offense could operate very well without Shockey, and they no longer needed to tolerate his shenanigans, nor his increasing susceptibility for nagging injuries. Ultimately, the organization grew tired of him and he was traded to the Saints in July of 2008.

Shockey was welcomed with open arms in New Orleans. Saints fans were happy to have another weapon in their potent aerial attack. Three games into the 2008 season, the optimism seemed well grounded, as Shockey had already accumulated 16 receptions for 151 yards.

However, prior to week four, Shockey was diagnosed with a sports hernia, and it caused him to miss the next five weeks of the season. His absence gave back up tight end Billy Miller an opportunity for a starting role, and he performed very well.

Shockey did return to the lineup, but was continually bothered by nagging injuries for the remainder of the season. He finished the year with a career low 483 receiving yards, and failed to reach the end zone.

As a new season quickly approaches, it seems that Shockey realizes his career is at a crossroads. He has even fired his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, who was working on renegotiating his contract for more money.

More importantly, for the first time in his pro career, Shockey has shown up for his team’s voluntary offseason conditioning activities. Normally he spends the entire time in Miami doing private work outs, which is something that brought plenty of negative media attention while he was playing for the Giants.

Although Shockey will continue to work out privately in Miami, he has vowed on his personal web site that he will make himself more visible to his teammates than he has in the past. So far, things appear to have gotten off to a good start.

In a recent interview with the New Orleans Times-Picayune, Saints quarterback Drew Brees had the following comment: “We were kind of flying by the seat of our pants a little bit together last year just because he was hurt so much or just kind of coming back off the injury and still kind of learning what we were doing and still kind of getting used to each other. So now that we get a chance to spend some time together, it's been good”.

Shockey will be 29 years-old as the 2009 season kicks off, potentially leaving him with many productive years ahead. He must stay healthy and play well enough to hold off Billy Miller from winning the starting the role at tight end.

Working out with his teammates during voluntary sessions and developing chemistry with Brees is a positive step. He seems to have adapted a team-first attitude, which should pay dividends, as he looks for an opportunity to contribute in the Saints’ potent offense.

Jeremy Shockey has the skills to succeed, and is reportedly the healthiest he has been in many years. It is now up to him to remain motivated to regain his reputation as an elite tight end in the NFL.

Fantasy Football Spotlight: Ravens Running Back Ray Rice

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 19 May 2009 15:46:20 -0400

In fantasy football, it's always good to have plenty of running back depth.

As a fantasy draft winds down, the available talent at the running back position becomes minimal. It's here where getting a good value can really provide depth and security to your starting lineup.

I believe the Baltimore Ravens’ Ray Rice will be a good late-round pick up this year.

Rice played well as a rookie in 2008: He emerged as the third-down back and played very well in the three games Willis McGahee sat out due to injury.

In three games without McGahee in the lineup, Rice rushed for a respectable 259 yards on 54 carries (that's an average of 4.8) while splitting time with backfield mate Leron McClain. Rice also added 10 receptions for 55 yards in those games.

Reports out of Balitmore's camp indicate that Rice is fully healed from a shin injury that caused him to miss the final three regular-season games last year. Also, coaches have hinted that Rice may be given an expanded role in the offense.

There is no doubt that Rice has an excellent opportunity to earn more playing time. He is currently running with the first-team offense as McGahee continues to rehab ankle and knee injuries suffered last season. Willis is actually not expected to return to practice until the beginning of August, giving Rice plenty of practice time with the offensive starters.

In addition, McClain has now been moved to fullback to replace the departed Lorenzo Neal. This will certainly mean a significant decrease in touches for McClain as he becomes the new lead blocker for the Ravens.

At 5’8” and 205 pounds, Rice doesn't possess the size of an ideal goal-line running back, and has yet to score his first NFL touchdown. Regardless, I think he's a tough runner with good strength and has potential to score in the red zone.

At the college level, he rushed for 3,806 yards and scored 44 rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons at Rutgers. He proved to be a true workhorse for the Scarlet Knights, and I believe, given the opportunity, he can also do it at the NFL level.

Many people said Maurice Jones-Drew was too small, but he has proven more than capable of scoring short-yardage touchdowns. He and Rice are similar in stature.

While McGahee is currently slated to return as the primary running back for the Ravens, his history of nagging injuries and chronic attitude problems could open the door for Rice to step into the starting role, making him a potential late-round fantasy gem.

On a final note, the Ravens did draft a versatile running back in Cedric Peerman from Virginia.

While I believe he is a talented player, Peerman will likely be considered a project and will be given a chance to contribute in the return game on special teams mostly.

Taking everything into consideration, I will be targeting Ray Rice in the later rounds when I am looking to add solid depth to my running back corps. I believe he will take advantage of the opportunity given to him this offseason and prove himself capable of being the Ravens’ featured running back.

Worst-case scenario, he will continue to contribute on third down, giving fantasy owners a solid emergency depth player, since he is the best receiving running back on the team.

Fantasy Football Sleeper Alert: Rashad Jennings

Chris DiLeo — Mon, 11 May 2009 20:51:51 -0400

The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Rashad Jennings in the seventh round of the 2009 NFL Draft.

It has been speculated that Jennings fell down the draft board because he played for Liberty, which competes in the Championship Subdivision (formerly known as Division 1-AA).

It's no surprise that a player from a small school who was drafted in the last round of the draft would be an afterthought for fantasy football purposes.

Further, consider that Jennings was drafted by the Jaguars—a team already boasting Maurice Jones-Drew. Fantasy players have been waiting years for the chance to see what MJD could accomplish if given a full-time role on the offense.

Now that former Jacksonville running back Fred Taylor has moved on to New England, the door is open for MJD to take over, and it has fantasy players drooling with excitement.

The above factors will divert attention away from Jennings. He is primed to be a top sleeper pick in fantasy football, as well as possibly the best value pick in this year’s draft.

Jennings has very good size at 6’2” and 235 pounds. He runs a 4.52 forty and has all the necessary skills to contribute right away for the Jaguars.

Chris Steuber of Scout.com gives an excellent idea of what to expect:

“ Jennings is a physical runner who’s tough to handle in the open field. He has great size and strength and possesses outstanding vision. He’s a North-South runner who runs low to the ground and has good balance. He’s deceptively quick and has surprising elusiveness. He has great hands out of the backfield and is dangerous in space. He keeps his legs moving and fights for extra yards”.

What is not mentioned is that Jennings is also a willing and capable blocker. Blocking ability is a very important attribute—one that rookie running backs need to have in order to see playing time. Willingness to block is often overlooked by fantasy owners deciding on which rookies to draft.

Jennings also has little competition for the No. 2 running back position. The depth chart lists three names: Alvin Pearman, Greg Jones, and Chauncey Washington.

Pearman has been active for only 17 games in the past three years and got only 23 touches during that span.

Jones has been used in short-yardage situations in the past, but his role appears to be at fullback in 2009.

Washington was a seventh-round pick in 2008, but he was active only six games and accounted for a measly 18 total yards of offense.

As for Jennings' small-college stigma, it is noteworthy that he played his freshman year at Pittsburgh. While playing for the Panthers, Jennings’ 411 yards rushing was second on the team.

He transferred to Liberty solely because he wanted to be closer to his father, who had fallen ill.

Jennings also put on a superb showing at the Senior Bowl—he was the leading rusher in that game. This provides a good indication that he is just as capable as running backs coming from bigger colleges.

Finally, he has a tremendous work ethic—a trait shared by all of my sleeper picks. Jennings was team captain all three years at Liberty, and he had a reputation for working very hard and always trying to improve upon his skills.

I believe Jennings may only be considered as a handcuff to Jones-Drew in the upcoming fantasy season. If that is the case, he would likely fall well past round 10 in most drafts.

Jennings will surely be an amazing value pick in that scenario. His size, running power, deceptive speed, great hands, and willingness as a blocker will almost certainly earn him a lot more playing time than most observers are expecting from him.

He is definitely a player worth monitoring, and should be targeted by anyone looking for a fantasy steal in 2009.

Is Miami Dolphins QB Pat White Fantasy Relevant?

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 05 May 2009 20:47:58 -0400

The Dolphins clearly had every intention of drafting Patrick White by taking him with the 44th overall pick of the NFL Draft. Bill Parcells and the Dolphins are ready to unleash the second stage of the Wildcat offense.

Last year, the Dolphins waited until week three in a big showdown versus the Patriots to unveil the Wildcat offense. It completely took head coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots by surprise, and Miami won an unexpected 38-13 blowout.

As the season wore on, however, opposing defenses learned that by cheating the safeties up to defend the run, they could limit the effectiveness of the Wildcat formation. Whenever Ronnie Brown lined up to receive the snap, defenses knew to make adjustments.

This is where Patrick White comes in.

In addition to his quickness and running ability, he can also accurately throw the deep ball. Now, if the safeties cheat up too much, White will have an opportunity for one-on-one coverage deep down the field.

In fact, White impressed many scouts at the NFL Combine with his poise, strong arm, and accuracy in throwing the deep ball.

He adds a whole new dimension to the formation, and appears to be the perfect fit to the Dolphins’ system. The term “WildPat Offense” has already become quite popular.

There are many things to like about Patrick White.

He was a four year starter at West Virginia, who run a similar offensive style to that of the Wildcats. This gives him plenty of experience in this type of offensive system.

In his career running that offense, he passed for 6,051 yards and 56 touchdowns. He has exhibited good decision making in throwing only 23 interceptions during that span.

He also ran for 47 touchdowns, and his 4,480 yards rushing is the most in NCAA history for a quarterback.

What I like most about White is that he is a winner. Perhaps the most important intangible quality a player can possess is the intense desire to win.

White’s record as a starting quarterback for the Mountaineers is 34-8, which ranks him sixth all-time in winning percentage in NCAA history. This includes a 7-2 record versus top 25 ranked opponents.

He is the only quarterback in NCAA history to win four bowl games, including perhaps the greatest victory in school history by leading the upset of Georgia in the 2006 Sugar Bowl.

Another intangible quality I like about White is his toughness. He has shown throughout his career that he is willing to play through injuries.

The best example of this would be the 2007 Gator Bowl versus Georgia Tech.

With the team trailing 35-17 in the third quarter, White overcame neck, ankle, and wrist injuries to lead West Virginia to a 38-35 comeback victory, earning his first of three consecutive bowl game MVP honors.

Despite the opinions of some analysts that White would change positions upon entering the NFL, Dolphins head coach Tony Sporano has indicated that White will not be practicing any other position other than quarterback.

With Chad Pennington atop the depth chart, and Chad Henne as his backup, it appears White's playing time may be limited to a situational role.

From a fantasy perspective, this may not seem an ideal situation to have a quarterback who plays on a limited basis.

This should not prevent anyone from taking a late-round flier on White, however.

While I do plan on making sure I draft a quality No. 1 fantasy quarterback, there are several reasons why I would consider using a late-round selection on Patrick White.

The upside is undeniable. Even if White is taking snaps for only 10-12 plays a game, there is a lot of potential for fantasy points being that he could be running, passing, or perhaps, even catching the football.

Consider that most of the top fantasy wide receivers in the NFL get an average of only eight targets per game. In other words, they are fantasy relevant despite limited touches per game.

The same should apply to White. When he is in the lineup, it is almost certain he will be handling the football. I think he may do enough in the Wildcat offense to score significant fantasy points on a weekly basis.

In addition, his athleticism gives him the potential to score a long touchdown either running or throwing the football on any given play.

Finally, Pennington has had a history of injury problems. He has played in only two 16- game seasons since taking over as starting quarterback for the Jets in 2002.

If Pennington becomes injured, that would leave unproven Henne next in line to start at quarterback.

It would seem likely in this scenario that the Dolphins would lean a little more heavily on the Patrick White led Wildcat offense. It is also possible that White may even surpass Henne on the depth chart, giving him the starting job on every play.

Ultimately I like the abilities, attitude, and winning mentality of Patrick White.

I also have a strong feeling that Miami has plenty of tricks up their sleeve for the 2009 season. I believe they will unveil a successful and new dimensional Wildcat Offense that will surprise the NFL. Never, ever underestimate Bill Parcells.

I am more than willing to take a chance drafting a player who is in charge of such an offense.

That player is Patrick White.

Day One of the NFL Draft: Top Five Value Picks

Chris DiLeo — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 02:26:44 -0400

Now that the first day of the draft is over, here is what I believe to be the best five value picks of the day.

Without further ado, here we go.

5. Running back LeSean McCoy at pick No. 53.

If there was ever a player who reminded me of Brian Westbrook, it would be McCoy.

The Eagles made a great pick here and have the heir to the running back position, without having to change the offensive system.

McCoy is a well-balanced runner with great vision. He is very elusive and has breakaway speed. He rushed for over 2,800 yards and scored 21 touchdowns the past two years for Pittsburgh.

To top it off, he has great hands and route running ability.

The Eagles hit a home run with this pick.

4. Defensive end Brian Orakpo at pick No. 13.

The Redskins had only one pick on day one, but it was a very good one.

It was almost unanimous that Orakpo would not make it out of the top five picks. Perhaps durability concerns allowed him to fall down the draft board, but he is definitely an elite talent.

He has great awareness and plays disciplined football. He is excellent at rushing the passer, and is good at shedding blockers to fill the hole against the run.

Although he was advertised as a hybrid defensive end, the Redskins will likely use him opposite Andre Carter in their 4-3 defensive scheme.

That is just fine for Orakpo. In an interview with Sirius NFL Radio after he was selected, he said he preferred to play with his fingers in the turf.

3. Linebacker James Laurinaitis at pick No. 35.

Laurinaitis is a great tackler with good lateral speed and strength. He is also a smart player who is quick to read and react.

He is good enough to contribute immediately, and I am sure the Rams would like to see him starting on day one.

The Rams really got a great bargain, as they filled a glaring need at inside linebacker.

2. Offensive tackle Michael Oher at pick No. 23.

The Ravens always seem to make great selections with their draft picks. Once again, they have amazed me.

As Oher was slipping and slipping down the draft board, I was wondering who would be the lucky team.

For the life of me, I do not understand how the Lions passed on him at pick No. 20. But that is a story for another article.

Since the draft was deep at the tackle position, Oher slipped through the cracks. I really believe Oher has a chance to be the best of the class.

He uses his 6-foot-5 and 315-pound frame, and long arms to adeptly hold off pass rushers. He is also very strong and has good lateral movement.

Some have criticized his run blocking, and that may be a fair point.

However, having only three years experience playing left tackle, Oher has steadily improved in this area each year.

The Ravens are the perfect fit for Oher, as they are good at grooming offensive lineman.

Oher will one day be considered among the many great picks of the Baltimore Ravens.

1. Linebacker Rey Maualuga at pick No. 38.

An outstanding selection for the Cincinnati Bengals.

Maualuga is an aggressive player with great range. He reads a play well, and is explosive in his pursuit and tackling.

He was almost certainly considered a first-round selection.

The Bengals really struck gold with this pick, especially considering how badly they need a replacement for Dhani Jones at middle linebacker.

Maualuga appears to be the first-day steal of the NFL Draft.

What NFL Team Will Emerge as the Surprise of 2009?

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:42:59 -0400

Every year there seems to be an NFL team that ascends from the depths of the previous year’s standings and surprises everyone by making the playoffs.

With the NFL draft less than a week away, the anticipation is driving me mad. In the meantime, I have been wondering, who will be that surprise team in 2009?

In order to be considered a surprise team, there has to be unanimous agreement that a team has virtually no chance at making the playoffs.

I am not making any bold predictions on which team that will be, but I feel one of the following teams will succeed in making the postseason in 2009: the Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, or Kansas City Chiefs.

My purpose is simply to analyze teams that appear to be in rebuilding mode, or those which tend to get written off as “easy games" on the NFL schedule.

It will be an article discussing the reasons why making the playoffs seems unlikely for each team, rather than offering optimistic reasons why any of them may have a chance to succeed.

To illustrate, let’s take a look back at the last three years.

Last year, both the Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins were surprise teams.

The Dolphins barely managed a victory in their 1-15 campaign in 2007, but astonished everyone by rallying to win the AFC East Title in 2008.

The Falcons suffered a tumultuous year in 2007. Coming off a disappointing 7-9 season in 2006, the Michael Vick fiasco proved too much for the organization to overcome, and they fell to a 4-12 season in 2007.

The Falcons then handed the reins over to a rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, who was supposedly playing behind a shaky offensive line. Expectations were so low, I remember listening to Falcons fans on Sirius NFL Radio saying they were hoping for five wins.

Despite the pessimism of the fans and almost every sports analyst, the Falcons earned a wild card playoff spot, finishing the season at 11-5.

In 2007, it was the Cleveland Browns that astounded everyone.

Managing only 15 wins the previous three years, and having serious quarterback issues to start the year, expectations were are at a bare minimum for the Browns. Yet they finished the season with a very good record of 10-6.

It was only losing a tiebreaker to the Steelers that kept the Browns from winning the AFC North crown. Losing another tiebreaker with the Tennessee Titans kept the Browns from earning the last playoff spot in the AFC as well.

Although the Browns did not make the playoffs, they really shocked the NFL world with their success—enough to make many believe the Derek Anderson to Braylon Edwards connection was going to be one of the new up-and-coming young tandems.

In 2006, it was the Saints’ turn.

After a 3-13 season in 2005, and the devastation and turmoil caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Saints were not given any chance to succeed in 2006.

However, they became the warm-hearted story of the year as they won the NFC South title with a record of 10-6. They went on to fall one game short of the Super Bowl after losing to the Bears in the NFC Championship game.

Now let’s take a look at the upcoming season.

It would seem appropriate to start with the Detroit Lions.

This is an easy choice, being that the Lions are coming off a season in which they became the first NFL team in history to go winless at 0-16. Plus, the Lions have managed only one win in their last 24 games.

They have only made the playoffs nine times in the past 50 years, the last time being in 1999, where they suffered an opening round loss to the Washington Redskins. In fact, their playoff record is a dismal 1-9 in that span.

Since that last playoff appearance, the Lions own just a 40-104 record.

If the numbers do not paint a pessimistic enough picture, the following story really gives an idea of just how much the Lions are expected to be perennial losers.

Never was there a prediction made by an NFL athlete that was mocked more than Jon Kitna saying the Lions would get “at least 10 wins” prior to the 2007 season.

Although a good season, getting 10 wins is not a monumental accomplishment. The fact that there was so much attention and criticism towards Kitna for making this modest prediction indicates what low expectations the sports media has for the Detroit Lions.

After the hot start of 6-2 that year, the Lions seemed unable to handle the pressure of winning. The team busted open at the seams and won only one game the rest of the season.

The Lions' only hope is that a new general manager, a new head coach, and new uniforms can erase the losing attitude in Detroit and bring the team to the playoffs for the first time in a decade.

The Oakland Raiders are another team that has struggled for many years.

Since making the Super Bowl following the 2002 season, the Raiders have not had a season of more than five wins. Their record over the last six seasons is a paltry 24-72.

Last season they struggled offensively, ranking 29th in both points scored and yards gained. Their passing attack was virtually nonexistent, ranking dead last in the league with just 148 yards per game.

JaMarcus Russell is a young, developing quarterback with a cannon arm. However, his lack of pass protection and playmaking wide receivers has hurt his progress.

Considering the leading receiver on the team was his tight end Zach Miller—who managed only 56 receptions—it's obvious the Raiders need to give him some help on offense. The leading wide receiver was up-and-comer Johnnie Lee Higgins, who tallied just 22 receptions.

Although the running game has been solid the past two seasons, the Raiders often have to abandon the run because they are always playing from behind.

Their defense ranked 24th in points scored and 27th in yardage allowed. Too often they let opponents take an early lead, then allowed those teams to control the clock by being unable to stop their running attack. The Raiders ranked 31st versus the run, allowing 160 yards per game.

It is seldom pointed out, but I believe a lack of discipline has been the biggest problem in Oakland.

They have had many offensive drives into the opponent's territory stall because of consecutive penalties, which were largely due to some kind of mental lapse. Penalties such as false starts, illegal shifts, or holding on the opposite side of the field when a play is developing can be very detrimental to a team’s drive.

Similar mental errors would occur on defense, such as getting a big stop negated because of roughing the passer or some other personal foul.

New head coach Tom Cable was hired to instill this discipline, but even if he succeeds in changing the attitude in Oakland, there appear to be too many holes to fill for the Raiders to excel in 2009.

Next up, the Cleveland Browns.

After their disappointing 4-12 season last year, there have been grumblings that their 2007 season was a fluke.

The Derek Anderson to Braylon Edwards connection failed to emerge in 2008. Edwards dropped too many balls, and Anderson suffered inaccuracy throughout his starts.

Even the running game took a step backward in 2008.

Jamal Lewis looked rejuvenated in the Browns’ surprise season of 2007, averaging 87 yards rushing per game and scoring 11 total touchdowns.

In 2008, however, Lewis’ totals dropped to 63 yards rushing per game and only four touchdowns. Making matters worse, Lewis will be turning 30 before the season starts.

The Browns are again facing serious quarterback issues. New head coach Eric Mangini has not declared a starter, saying only that it will be an open competition.

Unfortunately for Mangini, the choices are not very enticing. Derek Anderson has been inconsistent, and Brady Quinn lacks experience.

Serious improvement is needed for the Browns offense, being that in 2008 they ranked 31st overall in yards and 30th overall in points scored.

But the problems in Cleveland are not limited to the offense.

Defensively, they were not able to generate any type of pass rush, nor were they able to stop the run, allowing an average of 152 yards rushing per game.

The AFC North is a smash-mouth division. Being able to run the ball and stopping the opponent's running game is imperative if there is any hope of success.

Unfortunately for the Browns, they have been unable to accomplish either task. Perhaps Mangini can rebuild this once proud franchise, but success in 2009 appears unlikely.

The Kansas City Chiefs have also hired both a new head coach and general manager in an attempt to rebuild a struggling team.

Todd Haley is replacing Herm Edwards and has declared he wants to “start from scratch” as he takes over the head coaching role. This puts into perspective the expectations the Chiefs have for 2009.

Veteran Pro Bowl players such as tight end Tony Gonzalez, running back Larry Johnson, and guard Brian Waters have all indicated a desire to be traded.

Apparently they can sense that the team is willing to sacrifice short-term success in order to restructure for the future. As they near the end of their careers, they want a chance to win that coveted Super Bowl ring by playing for a team with the potential to win now.

There is a lot of work for Haley and general manager Scott Pioli to do in getting the franchise back to being a contender.

The Chiefs are coming off their worst season in franchise history and have only won six games the past two seasons.

They ranked in the bottom of the league both offensively and defensively. They have many holes that need to be filled up and down the lineup.

The defense especially needs an infusion of talent. They really missed Jared Allen, as their pass rush generated a mere 10 total sacks last year. Their secondary is average at best, and they can surely use an outside linebacker or two.

Many expect the signing of Matt Cassel to help the struggling offense.

However, in order to maximize his potential, the Chiefs need to shore up positions on the offensive line, especially at center and right guard.

Finding a wide receiver opposite Dwayne Bowe is another need. They did sign free agent Bobby Engram, but at 36 years old, his best days may be behind him. The other wide receivers on the team will certainly not strike fear into their opponents: Mark Bradley, Will Franklin, Terrance Copper, Devard Darling, and Jeff Webb.

While Cassel had some success at New England, it is yet to be determined if he did well as a product of the system, or if he truly has the potential to be a winning starting quarterback in the NFL.

If Pioli can bring in talent to Kansas City as he did in New England, the future may be a positive one for the Chiefs. In 2009, however, the outlook does not appear to be very good.

Finally, we have the St. Louis Rams, who have not had a winning season since 2003 and are 5-27 the past two seasons.

They have been unable to score points, averaging just 16 points a game in 2007 and under 15 points a game in 2008.

Marc Bulger has been inconsistent and often injured. He has only played one full 16-game season in his career. In each of the past two seasons, he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.

Left tackle Orlando Pace is now gone, and this adds further doubts as to how the Rams will protect Bulger, who has been sacked 75 times while playing in 27 games the past two years behind a shaky offensive line.

The backup quarterback is Kyle Boller. Boller never lived up to his potential in Baltimore, despite being given numerous opportunities. He may never become a No. 1 quarterback.

At wide receiver, the Rams could be the shallowest team in the league. They have talented Donnie Avery, but they could use some depth at this position, especially with veteran Torry Holt signing with Jacksonville. Laurent Robinson, acquired from Atlanta, has potential, but is unproven.

Defensively, the Rams need help along the defensive line, middle linebacker, and strong safety. This unit gave up 29 points and 372 yards per game in 2008, ranking 31st and 28th respectively.

New head coach Steve Spagnuolo has a big task in turning around the fortunes of the Rams. He did a wonderful job directing the New York Giants’ defense, but it may take a couple years to acquire and develop talent to turn the Rams' defense into a stellar unit.

There you have it. None of these teams appear to have a chance at success in 2009.

Now the question is, which one will shock the league by rebounding into a successful season and making the playoffs?

Fantasy Football: Who Will Emerge as the New York Giants' Best Wide Receiver?

Chris DiLeo — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 00:52:31 -0400

A big question for the Giants these days is who will be Eli Manning’s favorite wide receiver?

The release of Plaxico Burress and the decision to let Amani Toomer enter the free agent market, have opened the door for the younger players to emerge.

There has been speculation that the Giants are looking to make a trade with the Cleveland Browns for Braylon Edwards.

If Edwards does end up playing for the Giants in 2009, he would likely pick up where Burress left off. They are close in size and athletic ability, and Manning would surely welcome having a big receiver to go up and get his chucks down field.

Some reports have indicated that the Giants are willing to give up the draft picks, but not the receivers the Browns reportedly want in return. Trade talks will continue leading up to the NFL draft, but there appears to be no progress despite some reports to the contrary.

There are plenty of rumors and speculation regarding this trade, but it is beginning to seem as if the Giants are content to fulfill their wide receiver need through the draft.

The Giants are said to be targeting either Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt with their 29th overall pick in the draft. Two players with size and athletic ability to potentially replace Burress.

However, if history is any indication, it would be wise to keep fantasy expectations to a minimum when analyzing rookie wide receivers.

At the moment, it appears that Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith are the front-runners for the starting positions at wide-out.

The primary beneficiary of Burress’ release may be Domenik Hixon, who had 28 receptions for 351yards and a touchdown in the final six regular season games while Burress was sidelined.

In addition, Hixon lead the Giants in receiving yards last year with 596, and also produced the highest yards-per-catch with a 13.9 average. This may be an indication that Hixon is ready to replace Burress as Manning’s deep threat.

Steve Smith was hurt most of his rookie year in 2007, but proved to be a reliable third down target for Eli Manning during the post-season. He was a solid contributor in every playoff game, including a five reception, 50 yard performance in the Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots.

Smith continued to develop a rapport with Manning in 2008. Despite starting only four games, he lead all Giants with 57 receptions for 574 yards.

Smith is entering his third year, which is an important milestone for wide receivers in fantasy football. I expect that Smith will continue his growth, and could very well have a breakout year as Manning continues to look his way when a big play is needed.

Smith is more of a possession receiver, however, and his value will be much higher in points-per-reception leagues. With only one touchdown in 2008, and an average of just 10.1 yards per catch, I would be cautious drafting Smith if receptions are not awarded with points.

The other receivers on the depth chart with an opportunity to earn a starting role are Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, David Tyree, and Derek Hagan.

Mario Manningham struggled adapting to a pro-style offense as a rookie in 2008. His injuries in mini-camp and training camp slowed the learning process.

If Manningham progresses in making his reads, he has the speed to stretch the field and the skills to catch the ball from Manning.

He has a chance to earn the third wide receiver role. This limits his upside, but he does have the potential to have a few big games.

At best, consider Manningham a low-end number four wide receiver. That is being optimistic.

Sinorice Moss is a smallish receiver with excellent speed, who has the ability to be a big-play threat. However, he has been unable to capitalize on this potential since being a second round draft pick in 2006.

Injuries have limited him throughout his pro career, and he has not played a full 16 game season yet. His career total of 38 receptions for 403 yards and two touchdowns is not very inspiring.

Moss did show a glimpse of his talent in week five of 2008 when he scored both of his touchdowns in a 44-6 drubbing of Seattle. Unfortunately, he was unable to build off of that performance.

David Tyree suffered knee and hamstring injuries in 2008, ultimately ending the season on injured reserve without recording an offensive statistic.

Although he was a hero of Super Bowl XLII, Tyree will likely be relegated to special teams if he does manage to return from his injuries and make the Giants roster in 2009.

Derek Hagan was picked up in December of 2008 to add size and depth to the wide receiver corps after the Burress suspension.

He was drafted by the Miami Dolphins in 2006, but his promising off-season performances never translated into useful production on game days during the regular season.

The fact that Miami released him for his lack of desire is not very promising, especially since he was let go instead of under-achieving Earnest Wilford.

From a fantasy perspective, it does not appear that any of the Giants’ wide receivers will be dominant at their position. This is assuming they do not have Braylon Edwards, who despite his numerous dropped passes, would be a high-end No. 2 fantasy receiver.

Without a play-maker like Edwards, the Giants may lean heavily on Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, with Manning spreading the ball around equally to his receiving targets.

Plus, Manning has begun to develop a nice relationship with Kevin Boss in the red zone.

Boss had six receiving touchdowns in his first full year as a starter, and should continue to take touchdown opportunities away from the wide receivers.

As starters, Hixon and Smith could become valuable fantasy back-ups, and probably be considered high-end to middle number three receivers.

If the Giants do get one of their wide receiver targets in the draft, they would definitely warrant consideration. Caution is advised, however, and monitoring their off-season is crucial before making any decisions.

Fantasy Football: Will Earl Bennett Be a Diamond in the Rough in 2009?

Chris DiLeo — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 12:37:50 -0400

In a nutshell, a diamond in the rough is a high-value fantasy football prospect that goes beyond just your average “sleeper”. These are picks that can be made beyond round 15 of fantasy drafts, but can yield anywhere between solid and excellent fantasy points.

One player that has the potential to earn this title in 2009 is wide receiver Earl Bennett of the Chicago Bears.

Bennett had a very good career at Vanderbilt, earning all-SEC honors in each of his three years. Despite leaving after his junior season, he is the all-time SEC reception leader with 236.

Despite high expectations, Bennett struggled with his transition into the NFL, and did not record an offensive statistic as a rookie in 2008.

As the end of the season approached, however, the Chicago media started reporting that Bennett was looking more fluid in his routes, and more confident catching the ball.

In an interview with The Chicago Tribune, Bennett replied, “Toward the end, I started grasping the concepts. Once you put things aside and just play, you can play a lot faster."

With Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd gone, Coach Lovie Smith has indicated that Bennett will be given every opportunity to win a starting job. His main competition for playing time will come from Rashied Davis.

The best news Bennett received was from a call to his cell phone.

While Bennett was in a classroom working on finishing his degree at Vanderbilt, Jay Cutler called him to give the news that they are once again teammates.

Bennett’s response to hearing the breaking news: “Jay joining us does gives me a comfort zone.”

Cutler and Bennett had a great relationship at Vanderbilt, and have remained friends even after Cutler entered the NFL. They had excellent chemistry playing together, including a game versus Kentucky where they connected for five touchdowns..

Now they will be reunited, and the familiarity will further assist Bennett as he enters his first offseason with a solid grasp of the Bears’ playbook.

There are a number of reasons why I believe Bennett will not be much of a fantasy consideration come September.

First, many fantasy players put most of their emphasis on the previous year’s statistics. With Bennett off the stat sheets, he will be overlooked by many people.

Second, at 6’1” and 202 pounds, he has average size to go along with average speed. Not a very enticing package.

Third, the Bears have a reputation for being a run-first team. Many players will not be willing to take a chance that there will be enough passing attempts to make second and third receivers a factor.

Also, I predict the Bears will draft a wide receiver in April’s draft. This will create a buzz among fantasy players to desire the break-out rookie prospect. The diverted attention will help keep Bennett under the radar.

Lastly, with Cutler traded to the Bears, many myopic fantasy players will be salivating solely over the upside of playmaker Devin Hester and tight end Greg Olsen.

Despite some of the negatives I just laid out, I do believe Bennett will be a big fantasy surprise in 2009.

Bennett is a smart player, and he was mature enough to admit he struggled learning the playbook last year. Now that he understands the conceptual aspects of the plays, he has the talent and competitive nature to make significant progress.

The chemistry with Cutler cannot be underestimated. Bennett can be the ideal security blanket as Cutler learns to adapt to a new system as well. The situation creates a framework for Bennett to become an ideal possession receiver, and potentially Cutler’s “go-to guy.”

If the Bears do draft a wide receiver, that player will likely face the same adjustment period that practically every rookie faces when moving on to the next level. Therefore, not hurting Bennett’s production, but helping his fantasy value by diverting attention.

At this point, it is necessary to monitor how Bennett capitalizes on the opportunity the Chicago coaches and management are giving him.

In my opinion, Bennett will make the most of this opportunity, and he will shine in 2009.

Jim Plunkett: Remembering the Comeback Career

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:38:47 -0400

Jim Plunkett entered the NFL as a first-round draft pick of the New England Patriots in 1971, and he faced high expectations coming out of Stanford University.

Plunkett was awarded the Heisman Trophy after his senior season in 1970, as he became the first college player to account for over 7,000 yards of total offense He also led the Cardinals to their first Rose Bowl appearance in almost 20 years, beating heavily favored Ohio State University.

Plunkett lived up to expectations his first year with the Patriots. The team improved from a dismal 2-12 record to a 6-8 record as Plunkett threw for 19 touchdowns and 2,158 yards. He was subsequently awarded rookie of the year.

Over the next three years, however, Plunkett’s career decayed. He threw only 40 touchdowns compared to 64 interceptions and was sacked 97 times. The Patriots record during this span was 15-27 with no playoff appearances.

This lack of progress led the Patriots to draft the legendary Steve Grogan in 1975. Plunkett was on a short leash, eventually being relegated to backup quarterback after week five.

The following season Plunkett was traded to San Francisco, where he played with the 49ers for the next two seasons. His performance was mediocre, managing a record of just 11 wins and 15 losses.

After Plunkett’s release from San Francisco, he joined the Oakland Raiders prior to the 1978 season.

Plunkett was signed strictly as a backup. In his first two years in Oakland, he threw a total of only 15 passes.

Entering the 1980 season, Plunkett was closing in on 33 years of age. His career seemed reduced to being a perennial backup. He appeared to be a big disappointment given the high expectations early in his career.

In 1980, however, destiny offered Plunkett a chance to prove he was a top-notch NFL quarterback. After Dan Pastorini was injured during game five, Plunkett was handed the starting quarterback job.

A rejuvenated Plunkett led the Raiders to a wild-card playoff berth. Three victories later, the Raiders were facing the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XV.

Plunkett threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns, leading the Raiders to a 27-10 victory. Plunkett earned Super Bowl MVP honors, and lead the Raiders to becoming the first wild-card team to ever win a Super Bowl.

Plunkett suffered an injury plagued season in 1981, and the following year the Raiders moved the franchise to Los Angeles.

In a new city, Plunkett continued to play well in leading the Raiders to the playoffs in a strike shortened 1982 season. After losing in the second round of the playoffs, however, the Raiders decided to change quarterbacks the following year.

Once again, Plunkett appeared to be on the down side of his career as he was demoted to back up quarterback Marc Wilson.

After Wilson got injured, however, Plunkett once again had a chance to prove he was not too old for success.

Plunkett played like a young athlete in leading the Raiders to six wins in their last seven regular season games, and then taking the team all the way to Super Bowl XVIII to face the Washington Redskins.

At the age of 36, Plunkett led the domination of the Redskins. He threw for 172 yards and a touchdown in a 38-9 Super Bowl victory.

Plunkett spent the rest of his career with the Raiders as a backup. His 17 year career finally ended after a bad shoulder forced him to retire after the 1987 season, at the age of 40.

Perhaps Jim Plunkett would be remembered more favorably if he had retired after his second Super Bowl victory. However, his tenacious desire to play football kept him on the field for several more years, as he continually tried to make contributions despite his age.

It was this desire, however, that propelled Plunkett to make two comebacks in his roller-coaster career. He proved to many fans and athletes that with hard work and the proper motivation, age can be overcome in the NFL to achieve success.

Fantasy Football: Finding Value In 2009 Sophomore Wide Receivers

Chris DiLeo — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 17:32:50 -0400

In fantasy prep, second-year wide receivers often get overlooked. Giving attention to second-year wide receivers should be part of everyone’s strategy.

For some reason, fantasy players tend to ignore these players. Perhaps because they haven’t gotten to that magical third year, or maybe because the excitement of the rookie season is over.

Sure, Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson will be on most everyone’s radar. They are both talented athletes who should continue to do well in 2009.

However, there are many other wide receivers in their second year whose offseason should be monitored. Finding the right one could be a welcome addition to a fantasy roster, and likely at a very good value.

I will break them down for you.

Breakout Potential:

Donnie Avery

The most intriguing second-year wide receiver is Donnie Avery. With Torry Holt released, Avery is currently the No. 1 receiver for the Rams.

Avery was the first wide receiver taken in the 2008 NFL draft. A preseason injury slowed him down, and Avery showed toughness by playing the entire year with a cracked hip.

In 2008, Avery amassed a respectable 53 receptions, 674 yards, and three touchdowns.

In his first three games as a starter, Avery had over 300 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. His production slowed for several games, but then, Avery finished strong by catching 16 balls for 157 yards and a touchdown in the final three games.

Quarterback Marc Bulger claimed that it took almost half a season to get in-sync with Avery’s blazing speed. Most importantly, Avery proved he can also make the tough catches in traffic in addition to hauling in the long ball.

If his chemistry with Bulger continues to develop in the off-season, Avery has the talent to take a big step forward next year, and the potential to become a top value pick in 2009 fantasy drafts.

Josh Morgan

With Isaac Bruce considering retirement and Bryant Johnson departing in free agency, Josh Morgan is primed to become the 49ers No. 1 receiver in 2009.

Coaches had Morgan slated as a starting split end to begin 2008, but he caught a staph infection in the preseason and ended up starting the season on the bench.

In his first start versus the Giants, Morgan had five receptions, 86 yards, and a touchdown, and was handed the starting job going forward.

The following week Morgan was benched for dropping a ball in the first quarter against Seattle, and went without any stats in that game.

Morgan responded in week 10 (after a bye) with a four reception, 54 yard and one touchdown performance against Arizona.

A groin injury then sidelined Morgan for several weeks, but he returned to finish the last two games with 10 receptions, 105 yards, and a touchdown.

He has shown some inconsistencies, but his play-making ability is unquestioned. He has been referred to as a cross between Anquan Boldin and Marques Colston.

Morgan has already developed a nice rapport with quarterback Shaun Hill, and should excel in 2009 if he can stay healthy.

Solid, Cheap Depth:

Davone Bess

“Da-Bess” came out of Hawaii with a reputation for being an extremely hard-working, unselfish player. He brought this attitude with him to Miami as he quietly recorded a respectable 54 receptions for 554 yards and a touchdown for the Dolphins in 2008.

Bess entered the starting lineup after Greg Camarillo was placed on injured reserve, finishing the last five games strong with 30 receptions for 279 yards.

Bess is not big at 5’ 10” and 190 pounds, but he has great hands and has spectacular after-the-catch ability.

His main competition for playing time in 2009 should come from Camarillo, as underachieving Earnest Wilford will likely be either released or relegated to the bench.

Bess may never be a red zone threat due to his size, but his skills could make him a valuable commodity in points-per-reception leagues. His role could be similar to Wes Welker of the Patriots.

Jordy Nelson

With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver entrenched as starters, Nelson will be competing with James Jones for the third wide receiver position.

Nelson showed promise as a rookie last year. Overall he caught 33 balls for 366 yards and two touchdowns. He was active for every game, and filled in well in three receiver sets while James Jones was nursing injuries.

In the six games Jones missed, Nelson tallied a respectable 19 receptions for 189 yards. These are not eye-popping stats, but it does show Aaron Rodgers will look for him when he is on the field.

At 6’ 3” and 217 pounds, Nelson has the frame to be a red zone threat. He can really augment his fantasy value if he can prove to be a reliable threat catching balls in the end zone.

James Jones may require knee surgery for a torn PCL suffered last season, and this could open the door for Nelson to earn playing time if he can impress coaches during early camp.

Worth a Look:

Limas Sweed

Sweed struggled both physically and mentally as a rookie. In 11 games played, he managed only six receptions for 64 yards.

At 6’ 5” and 219 pounds, he has red zone potential. With the departure of Nate Washington, Sweed currently has the upper hand in winning the No. 3 receiving role.

His upside is limited since Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Heath Miller get the lion’s share of Big Ben’s tosses.

Therefore, his ceiling is likely limited to Nate Washington’s production in 2008. Washington caught 40 balls for 631 yards and three touchdowns.

Mario Manningham

With Amani Toomer highly unlikely to be with the Giants this year, and Plaxico Burress facing legal troubles for an incident involving an illegal gun, Manningham could get an opportunity to earn playing time.

Manningham is not a big target at 5’ 11 and 188 pounds, but he has the speed to catch the long ball, and the play-making ability to improvise on errant passes.

Manningham did not play much in 2008, mainly because he had trouble adapting to a pro-style offense. He had injuries in mini-camp and training camp, so that slowed the learning process.

He faces a lot of competition for playing time from Sinorice Moss, Domenik Hixon, and Steve Smith.

Manningham has the skills to take a step forward in 2009, but it is imperative he learns how to read a defensive secondary and make the necessary adjustments to his routes.

Devin Thomas

Thomas struggled with route running and learning the Redskins playbook in 2008. He was active for all 16 games, but managed just 15 receptions for 120 yards and no touchdowns. He did score on a 29-yard rushing touchdown in week 13.

The Redskins organization believes Thomas needs to mature as a person before he can be a factor. His inflated confidence did not translate into solid production.

Thomas has good size at 6’ 1” and 215 pounds, and he is very athletic.

All indications are that Thomas will be given a chance to win the number three receiver role, or perhaps even compete with Antwaan Randle-El for the No. 2 spot.

Thomas has the talent, but he must work hard in the offseason and prove to coaches he can get the job done.

Malcolm Kelly

Kelly had major injury issues to both knees in 2008, and was active for only five games, and managed just three receptions.

He will likely require additional surgery in the off-season, and his chance at playing time is in serious jeopardy.

He is on the list because he has great size, good hands, and excellent body control. At 6’ 4” and 217 pounds, he is a nice target for Jason Campbell.

If Devin Thomas does not make progress, Kelly may get a chance to win a role in the offense.

James Hardy

A huge target at 6’7” and 220 pounds, Hardy was drafted to be a red zone threat. He struggled as a rookie, however, and ultimately ended the season on injured reserve with a torn ACL in his left knee.

Finding playing time will be difficult for Hardy in 2009, there is just too much competition for him to overcome.

Now that the Bills signed Terrell Owens to start opposite Lee Evans, the third wide receiver position will likely go to Roscoe Parrish. Josh Reed and Steve Johnson are also in the mix to see playing time.

His size makes him a player to monitor in the offseason, but barring injuries to other Bills receivers, Hardy is likely headed to the bench in 2009.

Washington Redskins Ruminations: An Optimistic Viewpoint

Chris DiLeo — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 19:23:38 -0500

Many Redskins fans, myself included, have been calling for Daniel Snyder to improve the team through the draft.

We have grown tired of the multitude of free agent busts which consume their salary cap, and poor trades which result in the depletion of quality draft picks.

The Redskins need to acquire and develop young players, not sign aging players who have had great careers but are on the downside of their career.

The first reaction to signing Albert Haynesworth is “oh no, here we go again.”

Before letting our emotions overwhelm us with anger and disgust, let’s take a look at the overall situation.

Let’s start on defense.

Haynesworth is a big, physical presence who is not only adept at stuffing the run, but can generate pressure up the middle to collapse the pocket against opposing quarterbacks.

When the quarterback cannot step up in the pocket, it allows a speed rushing defensive end like Andre Carter get more pressure from the outside.

Haynesworth also requires constant double teams, which will help free up linebackers to stop the run, as well as open up lanes for the blitz.

Perhaps what I like most is that Haynesworth is only 27 years old. He is in the prime of his career, and can anchor the defensive line for years to come.

His presence should help the development of Kedric Golston and Anthony Montgomery, two young defensive tackles who have shown a great deal of potential.

As much as I have always liked Marcus Washington and Shawn Springs, it was a wise decision to let them go.

They are both highly competitive, and have had great careers. Unfortunately, injuries and age have led to a decline in production. Jason Taylor was also a good subtraction.

The re-signing of DeAngelo Hall is a smart move. Along with Carlos Rogers, they can be a formidable cornerback tandem for years to come. Hall is 25-years-old, and Rogers is 27.

Given the fact that the Redskins may actually begin to pressure the quarterback on a regular basis, their production should get even better.

Along with the Redskins other young, talented, and improving players such as LaRon Landry, Rocky McIntosh, Chris Horton, H.B. Blades, and Reed Doughty, this foundation could help elevate a very good defense into an elite unit.

I believe the presence of London Fletcher will provide leadership to these young players and help them mature. His intense style of play excites his teammates to play hard, and I believe he can elicit motivation from Albert Haynesworth.

Fletcher has led the Redskins in tackles since he joined the team in 2007. At 34 years of age, he still can be a force at middle linebacker as he helps tutor the young talent around him.

As we move to the offensive side of the ball, there are many more question marks.

The most underrated move in free agency so far this year was the signing of left guard Derrick Dockery. The Redskins drafted him in 2003, and he quickly became an important piece to the stellar offensive line.

In 2007, The Buffalo Bills signed Dockery in free agency, offering him a contract that (at the time) made him the highest-paid guard in The NFL.

Now he is back, and should take over for aging Pete Kendall at left guard. Dockery is 28-years-old, and is a vital addition to an offensive line which desperately needs an infusion of youth.

He joins five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Chris Samuels, and reliable center Casey Rabach. Both will turn 32-years-old in 2009, leaving them with a couple strong years remaining.

If right tackle Jon Jansen can finally manage to stay healthy for a full season, this offensive line can protect Jason Campbell and open running lanes for Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts.

For any chance at long term success, however, The Redskins must address this offensive line in the 2009 NFL Draft.

As for Jason Campbell, I look forward to seeing what he can do in his second year in Coach Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense.

Campbell has had to learn eight offensive playbooks in nine years, dating back to his college days at Auburn.

The only system he had for two consecutive years was Al Saunders’ playbook in 2006 and 2007.

This hardly counts as continuity since this playbook is one of the largest in the NFL, at over 600 pages in length.

As a matter of fact, When Saunders was in Kansas City, it took three years for the Chiefs offense to become the powerhouse that we all remember.

Despite all the criticisms about Campbell, I believe he will take a major step forward in 2009. Although he has yet to put up eye popping statistics, he has improved steadily for each of the three years he has played.

His quarterback rating has gone up steadily from 76.5 to 84.3 and his completion percentage has increased from 53.1 to 62.3.

An important sign of whether a young quarterback is developing nicely is how he learns to eliminate mistakes.

Campbell threw 17 interceptions in 20 games in 2006-2007. In 2008 (16 games,) he cut the interception total to just eight.

In 2007, Campbell fumbled 13 times, losing eight of them. In 2008, he reduced the fumbles to seven, and lost only one.

Given all the different offenses Campbell has had to learn, it is actually rather impressive that he managed to look decent. Many young quarterbacks take years to develop, even when playing in the same system.

It will help tremendously if Devin Thomas can show the abilities necessary to win the starting wide receiver position opposite Santana Moss. He saw limited action in 2008, but he has the size and speed to be a great wide receiver if he can mature into The NFL.

If Thomas can win the No. 2 role, then I believe Randle-El can play the role that suits him better, as a slot receiver/special teams/gadget player.

This is a role he thrived in while playing for the Steelers, and he will be better off returning to that role in Washington.

In conclusion, I feel very good about the Redskins defense being a fierce unit in 2009, and for years to come.

On offense, my optimism is heavily dependent on the offensive line staying healthy.

The collapse in 2008, after starting the season 6-2, was almost entirely due to losing three starting lineman, and then a couple backups.

It is extremely difficult to overcome a multitude of injuries to starting offensive lineman, and few teams in the league have the depth to overcome it.

If given the pass protection, Jason Campbell will prove that he belongs in the NFL as a starting quarterback. I am confident that his positive work ethic, intelligence, and competitive nature will lead him to continued improvement.

He will look like a capable and confident quarterback in year two of Zorn’s offense.

If any of the young wide receivers blossom into starting caliber players, this will further help Campbell’s development. I admit, this is a big question mark, but Thomas does have the skills. Malcolm Kelly was injured all of 2008, so he will essentially be a rookie again.

If the team can stay healthy, they have the talent to win football games. The Redskins should compete for the NFC East title in 2009.

A Fantasy Football Draft: Discovering and Drafting "Diamonds in the Rough"

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 11:21:37 -0500

This article assumes a 12-team, re-draft league.

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, even the least experienced players will know enough to pick quality starters in the first five rounds. As long as one is a football fan, he will know enough of the big-name players who generate yards and points.

There are usually a few popular rookie prospects mixed in with the well-known studs drafted during this period as well.

Following round five, players tend to start grabbing quality veterans who have proven to be consistent performers over the years. These are the ones whose production is slowing because of age, or they have always been considered “solid yet unspectacular.”

As the quality veterans quickly evaporate, fantasy players start filling out their starting lineup.

Any major skill position that's not drafted will fall into this category. Many times, this is when a player will draft his first quarterback or take a chance on a defense that is suppose to dominate in the upcoming year. As we get closer to round 10, it becomes a popular time to begin selecting the remaining highly-valued rookies.

By round 10, most players have drafted their starting lineups (except for kicker and perhaps defense). Now is the time to start filling out the backup positions with players considered average but who have the potential to shine.

Rounds 10-15 are also a good time to start drafting “sleepers” who are players expected to significantly out perform their projected ranking.

Assuming a draft is 20 rounds, there are usually about two or three picks that can be spent after round 15 on players that I like to classify as “diamonds in the rough” or DITR.

Before I continue, I must say that drafting a quality starting lineup and acquiring plenty of quality depth is of utmost importance. Without a solid foundation, DITR will not be of much help.

Similar to sleepers, DITR have the potential to perform like an early-round draft choice, which would make them a terrific value.

Most sleepers, however, eventually become bunched into a well-known group of players, and by September, most “sleeper lists” look about the same. This usually results in someone drafting a member of this group a little earlier than expected. When this happens, the value of that particular sleeper becomes diminished.

Unlike sleepers, DITR remain relatively unknown (or undesired) throughout the summer and right up until fantasy drafts in September. To be a true DITR, a player should not have an average draft position before the 15th round. In fact, many players that I target in this category end up undrafted, if I do not select them.

I personally spend a significant amount of time finding DITR to target in my drafts. These are guys that can turn a good season into a championship season.

If you can nail one, they either make it into your starting lineup, play an important role in bye weeks, or can be used in a trade to upgrade other player positions.

At worst, you can take your dud and use him as a cut when that necessary free agent move is inevitably required. Of course, success rates will be low, but as long as you can hit one out of three, it will pay big dividends.

I do not claim to have exclusive knowledge of these players. Other fantasy diehards who start their research in February are usually privy to the same information.

The fact remains, however, that a large majority of fantasy players start their research between June and September. Due to minimal preparation, most of these drafters start getting mentally tired toward the last quarter of the draft, and they often seem unsure of whom to pick. Meanwhile, I have a whole list of players that I cannot wait to select.

I always keep a list of potential DITR players. Players get added and crossed off of the list as news makes itself available.

I continually monitor the off-season performance of the prospects on this list. I use every news source possible and constantly update the rankings. I check out and analyze every positive report on a player and never dismiss a story as “just preseason hype”.

There are so many factors to be considered. The important thing is to always keep an open mind.

I consider not only production on the practice field, but a player’s attitude as well. When coaches rave about a player, it’s a good sign that this player may get plenty of opportunities on game day.

Pay attention to a player that says “the game has slowed down” in any interviews. This is a good sign the player will breakout.

I heard Roddy White mention this prior to his 2007 breakout year. Also, DeAngelo Williams said it prior to his stellar 2008 campaign. Williams was not a sleeper by any means, but it shows what happens when a young player catches up with the speed of The NFL, both mentally and physically.

Also, injuries to certain players opens the door for others (think Steve Breaston).

Some of the more productive DITR players that I have drafted throughout the years include: Keary Colbert and Michael Clayton in 2004, Greg Jennings and Tony Sheffler in 2006, Wes Welker and Selvin Young in 2007, and Kevin Walter in 2008.

All of these players helped me tremendously in varying degrees.

Walter and Sheffler came up big in isolated cases when I needed them.

While everyone had their radar on Randy Moss, I managed to scoop up Welker in the 16th round, and he was a beast as one of my starting wide receivers.

Selvin Young helped me in a couple of important games down the stretch of 2007.

Greg Jennings got off to a hot start in 2006, and I was lucky enough to trade him in a package deal before he got hurt. The trade helped me land Carson Palmer.

Believe it or not, Colbert and Clayton had productive years in 2004, and I was able to package them in a trade to get Edgerrin James.

Keeping track of lesser known, unwanted players has other advantages.

For example, last year I drafted Courtney Taylor of Seattle as one of my DITR. Another player on this list whom I did not draft was Antonio Bryant of Tampa Bay.

I really liked what I saw and heard about Bryant in the preseason. In the end, I decided Taylor had better potential, so I passed on Bryant, who ended up going un-drafted.

In week three of 2008, Bryant had a 10-reception, 138-yard performance at Chicago. Many felt this was a fluke performance. Having already targeted Bryant, I decided to act quickly and pick him up in free agency.

Seeing that Taylor was struggling as a starter, I cut him and picked up Bryant. Fantasy players in this league heckled me for picking up “a one-week wonder”.

By week nine, most of the guys in this league were offering me trades for Bryant. Some of them complained about how I always seemed to “get lucky.” I did not bother explaining to any of them that the decision to pick up Bryant began in April.

As the spring approaches, I will begin to publish my DITR lists for each position. As mentioned, these lists will be continually updated.

It is a long process but a worthwhile endeavor.

Why Shaun Hill Deserves a Chance to Be The 49ers' Franchise Quarterback

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 15:14:45 -0500

There has been a lot of talk about The 49ers needing to either draft a starting quarterback or bring in a veteran through free agency.

I do not believe this is necessary.

As far as I am concerned, Shaun Hill has the skills and leadership abilities to be the franchise quarterback for San Francisco.

The 49ers have a long list of failed quarterbacks in recent history, but I do not know why Hill is automatically included in that list of names: Ken Dorsey, Tim Rattay, Trent Dilfer, J. T. O'Sullivan, and Alex Smith.

The last two years, The 49ers have a record of 12-20.

In the games Hill has started, their record is 7-3. Hill may have saved Mike Singletary’s job by finishing the 2008 season 5-3 (winning three of the last four games).

Hill may not have the strongest arm, but he is very accurate. He has a quick release, and has the mobility and elusiveness to make plays scrambling from the pocket. He is a competitor, and knows how to lead his teammates in the huddle. His teammates appear to believe in him.

Most of all, Hill has shown the quality that every great quarterback must possess. He has the poise and leadership to lead his team when a score is needed in the final minutes of a game.

His first start in 2008 was versus the NFC Champion Cardinals. Down 29-24 with just over a minute left in the game, Hill led his team on a perfectly executed final drive to the Cardinals' 1 yard line with 20 seconds left. Following a series of blunders and bad play calls by coaches, The 49ers did not score, and lost the game.

One of the "blunders" was Frank Gore having a clear path to the end zone off left tackle, but practically tripped over his own feet, falling just short of the goal line. Later, he admitted feeling dizzy on that play, a lingering effect of the concussion he suffered in the game.

Hill put his team in a position to win, and I attribute this loss more to the inexperience of Singletary as a head coach, then to the abilities of Shaun Hill.

Then there was the game on the road in St. Louis. Hill was having his worst game as a pro, with under a 50 percent completion percentage, zero touchdowns and three interceptions going into the fourth quarter with his team losing 16-3.

Most young quarterbacks would have let the dubious situation overwhelm them. Not Shaun Hill, he did not let his poor performance hinder him. Another quality of great quarterbacks is to forget what happened earlier, and just move forward.

Hill led The 49ers on two fourth quarter drives ending in touchdown passes with under five minutes left in the game. In all, he was 10-15 passing for 127 yards and two touchdowns in that final quarter. San Francisco won the game 17-16.

The final game of the year was at home against Washington.

The game appeared to be heading to overtime after the Redskins tied the game at 24-24 with just over a minute remaining in the game. Shaun Hill was able to complete three passes for 52 yards (including a critical third down conversion) leading the 49ers to The Redskins’ 21 yard line. Moments later, Joe Nedney kicked the game winning field goal as time expired.

Just minutes after that last game, The 49ers announced plans to offer Mike Singletary a contract to remain as Head Coach of the team.

Hill has thrown some bad passes, and is still learning to eliminate mistakes. In his short career, he has thrown 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Keep in mind, he has only played in 12 games, so that touchdown to interception ratio is pretty good.

Putting that in perspective, consider that in 16 games, Matt Ryan threw 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his rookie 2008 campaign. Ryan is being hailed as the next great franchise quarterback, yet Hill has a better ratio.

I am not attempting to diminish Ryan’s value, but I am making a case that Shaun Hill deserves a lot more respect than he has received.

The 49ers may want to seek a veteran backup quarterback for insurance, but as far as the 2009 NFL Draft and the upcoming free agency, San Francisco should spend their money at other positions when looking to upgrade the starting lineup.

Shaun Hill has the skills and the necessary intangibles to lead San Francisco into playoff contention in 2009 and beyond.

Fantasy Football 2009 Rookie Class: Wide Receivers

Chris DiLeo — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 00:06:51 -0500

The 2009 NFL Draft has two wide receivers who are expected to make an immediate impact for the team that drafts them.

Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech, 6” 3”, 214 pounds

Crabtree possesses the skills and tools to be an elite NFL wide receiver for many years.

He has ideal size, and amazing hands. He runs good routes and knows how to get open. He will go up and fight for the ball, and is not afraid to go over the middle.

Although he lacks blazing speed, his forty time has been projected at 4.5 seconds. That makes him fast enough to be more than just a possession receiver, giving him the potential to make the big play at the next level.

He accumulated an astounding 231 receptions, 3,127 receiving yards, and 41 touchdowns in just two years with The Red Raiders. In 2008, he scored at least one touchdown in 11 of 13 games, and multiple scores in six of those games.

With one second left in the game, Crabtree caught the game winning 28 yard TD reception versus arch rival Texas. This knocked Texas out of the number one BCS ranking, and spoiled their national title chances.

This reception displayed Crabtree’s competitiveness and desire for the football when the game is on the line, which is a very important intangible at the NFL level.

In fantasy football, however, I always advise using caution when drafting rookie wide receivers.

While I plan on targeting Crabtree in 2009, I would not draft him before the tenth round in a 12 team, re-draft league. As much as I like him, it is always better to take a well established, consistently performing veteran over a rookie brimming with potential.

He has been compared to Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. This gives you an idea of the potential Crabtree possesses to be an elite player. As dominating as Fitzgerald and Johnson have become, check out their rookie statistics:

Fitzgerald: (16 games) 58 receptions, 780 yards, 8 touchdowns

Johnson: (15 games) 48 receptions, 756 yards, 5 touchdowns (1 rushing)

These numbers are good, but not if you drafted either of them in the early rounds of a fantasy draft.

My advice, Crabtree should be an early pick in all keeper drafts, and should be taken in double digit rounds of all re-draft leagues.

Projection: Top 10 pick in the NFL Draft.

Jeremy Maclin, Missouri, 6’ 1”, 200 pounds

Maclin had a stellar 2008 season with 102 receptions, 1,260 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns. This followed an impressive rookie season of 80 catches, 1059 yards and nine touchdowns.

He is a versatile threat, in that he can catch the ball, run the ball, and is adept at returning punts and kickoffs. He led the nation in all-purpose yards with an average of 203.5 yards per game.

In two years, he rushed 91 times for 668 yards (7.3 per rush) and scored six times. On special teams, he added five touchdowns in the return game during that span.

Maclin will be targeted by many NFL teams for his athleticism and speed. He may be a valuable asset to teams that like to run from the Wildcat formation, and for teams that are looking for help in the return game.

In fantasy drafts, he is worth a late round flier in re-draft leagues. He should be targeted in all keeper league formats.

Projection: first round draft pick in the NFL Draft.

After Crabtree and Maclin, there are about a dozen talented receivers who have potential if given an opportunity in the right situation. Invariably, there is always a wide receiver drafted in the later rounds who shines in the NFL.

Here are some to keep your eye on:

Juaquin Iglesias, Oaklahoma, 6’ 0”, 204 pounds

Had an impressive Senior Bowl, leading all receivers with six receptions for 90 yards. He finished off a solid career with The Sooners with 74 catches, 1,150 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2008.

He is a good route runner, and reads defenses nicely. What he lacks in size, he makes up for with his quickness off the line.

He does not possess ideal speed, however. He may need to add some muscle to his frame, for he is believed to be susceptible to bump-and-run coverage.

Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina, 6’ 1”, 215 pounds

Nicks had a huge performance in the 2008 Meineke Car Care Bowl with eight receptions, 217 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. He set school records in 2008 with his 1,222 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.

He is an excellent route runner, with very good hands. He has the strength to take on physical cornerbacks, and the quickness to get off the line of scrimmage.

He is destined to be more of a possession receiver, since he lacks speed to beat defenders deep at the NFL level. He also needs to work on protecting the ball after the catch.

Percy Harvin, Florida, 5’ 11”, 195 pounds

A smallish receiver with blazing speed. A play-maker who can go the distance every time he touches the ball. His electrifying style of play has been compared to Reggie Bush. He accumulated impressive statistics for The Gators.

The past two seasons he had 99 receptions, 1,502 receiving yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns. He also rushed 153 times for 1,423 yards (9.3 per rush) and 16 touchdowns.

Harvin has a long history of injury problems, however. His toughness was also questioned when he missed two games in 2007 because of the flu.

If he can withstand the pounding of the NFL, Harvin’s abilities and versatility can make him a star.

Kenny Britt, Rutgers, 6’ 4”, 215 pounds

In just 34 career games, Britt is the all time Big East leader in receiving yards. He finished the year with an impressive 6 reception, 119 yards receiving, and one touchdown performance in the Papajohns.com Bowl.

He has ideal size, runs good routes, and has decent speed. An aggressive player, not afraid to make plays in the middle of the field.

He must improve concentration to eliminate dropped passes. He also needs to improve getting off the line against press coverage.

Fantasy Football 2009 Rookie Class: Running Backs

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:36:38 -0500

There is a lot of talent available at the running back position for NFL teams to consider when selecting a player in the 2009 rookie draft.

While this year may lack the big-name, high-profile prospect we have seen in previous years such as Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, or Darren McFadden, there are still several running backs who can make a big contribution this year, and for years to come.

When it comes to drafting a rookie in fantasy football, running backs are by far the most productive players of any skill position. There are four running backs in this year’s draft I expect to immediately contribute to the team that drafts them.

No. 1 choice: Chris Wells, Ohio State

At 6’ 1”, and 237 pounds, Wells has the perfect frame for an NFL running back. He is an excellent downhill runner who does not shy away from contact. He breaks tackles with a combination of strength and balance, and always tends to move a pile forward. In addition to his strength, he has also displayed good lateral quickness hitting holes at the line of scrimmage.

The biggest concern regarding Wells is his injury history. In 2007 he played through an ankle and two wrist injuries. He missed three games early in 2008 with a foot injury and sat out most of the second half of the 2009 Fiesta Bowl with a concussion.

While some have shown concern about his 2007 injuries, I believe it is more important to note that he played through those ailments. That shows the toughness necessary to compete in the NFL.

Despite the three games missed in 2008, Wells still rushed for 1,194 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished the second half of the year strong, showing no signs of lingering injuries. As for the Fiesta Bowl versus Texas, he still managed to rush 16 times for 106 yards in just over a half of play.

Wells has the skills and tools necessary to be an every down back in the NFL. He should be a drafted early in all keeper leagues, and if he lands in the right situation, could be a late second round pick in re-draft leagues.

Projection: first round selection in NFL Draft.

No. 2 choice: Shonn Greene, Iowa

Greene is a running back with great size at 5’ 11” and 235 pounds, who had many accomplishments in 2008.

He was the only college player to rush for 100-plus yards in every game he played. He also scored a touchdown in 12 of 13 games played. He set a school record for yards rushing in a single season and tied the single-season record for touchdowns.

These numbers amounted to 1,850 rushing yards (6.0 per rush) and 20 touchdowns, which include a 121-yard, three-touchdown performance in the 2009 Outback Bowl versus South Carolina.

Greene was the winner of the prestigious 2008 Doak Walker Award which recognizes not only accomplishments on the field, but achievements in the classroom and citizenship in the community.

This affirms his reputation for being a hard-working, high-character person. These qualities are often just as important as talent in The NFL.

Best of all is Greene’s running style. He is a strong, one-cut-and-go runner, who runs with a low center of gravity. This is ideal in the NFL, where the speed of the game doesn’t allow for dancing around looking for a hole. Once in the open field, his compact running style allows him to take on tacklers.

I highly recommend Greene in all keepers leagues. He should be targeted as a value pick in re-draft leagues, since he is currently a relatively under-the-radar prospect.

He has the size and toughness to be an every down back in the NFL. He could have a similar impact as Matt Forte, who was perhaps the best value pick in 2008 since his average draft position was the fifth round.

Projection: Second round selection in NFL Draft

No. 3 choice: Knowshon Moreno, Georgia

Moreno is 5’ 11” and 207 pounds. He is a versatile running back who runs well between the tackles, has great hands, and is always a threat to break off a long touchdown run.

He runs with great instincts and vision. Despite his average frame, he is a tough runner and he keeps his legs moving at all times, often requiring opposing defenses to gang tackle him if they want to bring him down.

In 2008, he rushed for 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns. He also hauled in 33 receptions for 392 yards and two receiving touchdowns.

I am confident Moreno will be a valuable fantasy commodity in 2009, especially in points-per-reception leagues. He needs to add about 10-15 pounds of bulk to become an every-down back at the next level, however.

I envision Moreno being successful with a role as a primary running back who gives way in short yardage and red zone situations. A role similar to Chris Johnson of The Titans.

Projection: First round selection in NFL Draft.

No. 4 choice: LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh

McCoy is 5' 11" and 210 pounds.

A well-balanced runner with great vision. He is perhaps the best of the 2009 class at making tacklers miss with his change-of-direction quickness. McCoy is adept at using this quickness to hit open holes and he has the breakaway speed to go the distance on any given play.

He has been the Panthers’ workhorse the past two seasons, accumulating 2,816 yards rushing and 35 touchdowns (in 2008 he had 1,488 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns).

He has also been an asset in the passing game with 65 receptions, 549 receiving yards, and one touchdown in 25 career games with Pittsburgh.

McCoy has the skills to contribute right away, and he has the potential to become a star in a running back-tandem situation. Like Moreno, he needs to add bulk if he wishes to carry the full-time load in The NFL.

He is definitely worth drafting in both keeper and re-draft fantasy leagues.

Projection: Second round selection in the NFL Draft.

There are also some running backs that could be worthy of fantasy consideration if they are drafted into the right situation. They are as follows:

Devin Moore, Wyoming

5’ 10”, 191 pounds

Perhaps the fastest running back prospect in this year’s class. His projected 40 time is 4.36. Due to his size, he may only get drafted by a team looking for the next Devin Hester to return punts and kickoffs.

Most fantasy leagues do not award points for return yardage, so Moore may not be a useful roster addition. However, in the right situation, his speed gives him potential. Think Darren Sproles.

Donald Brown, University of Connecticut

5’ 10”, 208 pounds

A strong runner with great instincts and good hands. Brown makes the list for topping 2,000 yards rushing and scoring 18 touchdowns for the Huskies in 2008.

I do not like his upright running style, however. It may work in college, but not in The NFL. I believe Brown is more of a project, and any success will come on special teams.

He has potential if he can add bulk to his frame, and learn to lower his shoulders and keep a low center of gravity while running the ball.

Javon Ringer, Michigan State

5’ 9”, 202 pounds

A smallish runner with decent speed, Ringer managed to rush for 1,637 yards and an impressive 22 touchdowns in 2008.

His history of knee problems will likely prevent NFL teams from spending a high draft pick on him.

He tore his ACL in high school and missed time in 2006 with another knee injury. Making matters worse, he had to withdraw from the 2009 Senior Bowl because he needed to have his knee scoped.

He has good hands, and has drawn comparisons to Steve Slaton. Ringer is a very talented running back, and perhaps if he can stay healthy and land in the right situation, he may be able to make similar contributions in 2009 as Slaton did in 2008.

Fantasy Football 2009 Rookie Class: Quarterbacks

Chris DiLeo — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 03:22:28 -0500

When one considers the rookie quarterback prospects for 2009, it appears to be a weak class.

Heisman Trophy Winner Sam Bradford has decided to return to Oklahoma for another season. Tim Tebow, 2007 Heisman Trophy Winner, has decided to return to Florida in an attempt to defend the Gators’ National Championship.

In my opinion, there are only two quarterbacks who have the potential to make an impact in 2009. However, based on the poor history of fantasy performances by rookie quarterbacks, I would only use a late round flier on either of them.

First up is Mathew Stafford from Georgia.

He has ideal size at 6’ 3”, and 237 pounds. His greatest asset is arm strength. He is also praised for being a great leader. Despite a lack of speed, he has shown athleticism under pressure and is known to have good pocket presence.

Perhaps his best statistic is a 26-7 record as starting QB for The Bulldogs, who play in a very difficult SEC Conference. He has a 3-0 record in Bowl Games, including a 24-12 victory over Michigan State in The 2009 Capital One Bowl, in which he was 20-31 for 250 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.

In his career at Georgia, he threw 51 touchdowns and 33 interceptions. Not a great ratio, and his decision making and lapses in concentration have often been his biggest criticisms. However, he did steadily improve these numbers each year and finished his final season with 25 TD and 10 INT.

Most coaches and scouts ignore negatives such as poor decision making, because they believe a player can be taught to improve in this area. They are more concerned with qualities that cannot be taught: size, arm strength, and athleticism. Stafford possesses these physical tools, and can be an excellent long term quarterback.

For this reason, I would highly recommend drafting Stafford in all keeper leagues. In re-draft leagues, however, I would definitely keep my expectations to a minimum. Expect him to struggle early as he learns to become more consistent with his focus and decision making.

Projection: Many believe that if Detroit passes on Stafford with the first pick, he is sure to get drafted by Kansas City with the third pick. Either way, he is considered a lock to be drafted within the top ten picks.

Next up is Mark Sanchez from USC.

Sanchez surprised a lot of people by deciding to enter the 2009 NFL draft. Even coach Pete Carroll criticized the decision. The main reason for attacking Sanchez is that he lacks significant experience.

With only 16 career starts, it may seem difficult to argue against that logic, but his performance in those games makes one think he may indeed be ready for the NFL.

After doing okay filling in three games for an injured John David Booty in 2007, Sanchez took full advantage of his opportunity to be starting quarterback for the 2008 season.

He led USC to a 12-1 record, throwing for 3,207 yards and 34 touchdowns, with only ten interceptions. His 65.8% completion percentage was also impressive.

Most impressive was his performance in the 2009 Rose Bowl. Sanchez had to face a stingy Penn State defense, which prior to the contest, allowed only 165 passing yards per game, and a mere 12.6 points per game.

Sanchez led The Trojans to a 38-24 victory and was 28-35 passing for 413 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions, He also added a six yard rushing touchdown.

Sanchez has ideal size at 6’ 3” and 225 pounds. He has very good arm strength, and a quick release. He is mobile, and elusive to opposing pass rushers. He showed toughness by playing in the opening game versus Virginia, when his status was in serious doubt because of a pre-season knee injury.

Like Stafford, I highly recommend Sanchez in all keeper league drafts. However, he is too inexperienced to be counted on as a reliable performer in 2009.

Projection:middle to late first round draft pick.

Another prospect worth mentioning is Ball State’s Nate Davis.

He is touted as having a powerful, accurate arm. In his last two seasons, he threw 56 touchdowns versus only 14 interceptions, showing good decision making. He is a mobile quarterback with good speed.

I do not believe Davis is ready to make an impact in the NFL anytime soon. Despite his good passing numbers, he played against a weak MAC Conference. In his biggest game of the year, The GMAC Bowl, he looked lost. Tulsa’s defense completely smothered Davis and he was unable to respond.

He finished the game a horrendous 9-29 passing for 145 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. He also fumbled twice on consecutive drives in the first quarter. He did have a 17-yard scramble for a touchdown, but it was his lone bright spot the entire game.

While Davis will most likely get drafted by an NFL team, all fantasy owners should avoid him in upcoming drafts.

Projection: third to fourth round draft selection.

Your Fantasy Football Team: Avoid The Urge To Draft a Kicker Early

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:05:01 -0500

When it comes to drafting a kicker in fantasy football, it seems to be common knowledge that the best strategy is to wait until your final pick, then grab the best one available when your turn comes up.

This is indeed the best strategy, and everyone seems to agree. I find it amazing, however, that there is often a kicker or two drafted when there are five to eight rounds left in a draft. There seems to be an irresistible urge to grab that kicker who dominated the position the previous year.

I am here to convince you to resist that urge. There are too many factors which affect a kicker's opportunity to consistently stay at the top of fantasy rankings.

For example, when a kicker gets a higher proportion of field goal attempts relative to other kickers in the league, it usually means his fantasy production will be better. However, this can often mean his team is failing to convert touchdowns in the red zone.

Red zone efficiency then becomes a priority for the coaching staff in the offseason, which often leads to a reduction in field goal attempts the following season.

Therefore, I advise you to use these middle- to late-round picks and draft a player off your list of sleepers instead.

Below, I will list the top five fantasy kickers since 2004. The parentheses following the name indicates the kicker's fantasy ranking the following year.

The scoring system is as follows: extra point = one point, FG 18-39 yards = three points, FG 40-49 yards = four points, FG 50 + yards = six points.

2004

1. A. Vinatieri 147 pts (22)

2. J. Elam 129 pts (11)

3. J. Reed 124 pts (12)

4. S. Graham 122 pts (3)

5. D. Akers 120 pts (30) (injured four games in 2005)

(12th ranked kicker scored 105 points)

2005

1. N. Rackers 174 pts (7)

2. J. Feeley 168 pts (19)

3. S. Graham 138 pts (13)

4. J. Kasay 138 pts (14)

5. J. Wilkens 138 pts (2)

(12th ranked kicker scored 124 points)

2006

1. R. Gould 158 pts (7)

2. J. Wilkens 152 pts (23)

3. N. Kaeding 145 pts (10)

4. J. Hanson 133 pts (6)

5. J. Scobee 133 pts (33) (injured eight games in 2007)

(12th ranked kicker scored 122 points)

2007

1. M. Crosby 159 pts (12)

2. R. Bironas 152 pts (7)

3. J. Brown 146 pts (13)

4. N. Folk 142 pts (24)

5. S. Gostowski 140 pts (3)

(12th ranked kicker scored 127 pts)

2008

1. D. Akers 193 pts

2. J. Carney 162 pts

3. S. Gostowski 159 pts

4. N. Rackers 158 pts

5. J. Reed 152 pts

(12th ranked kicker scored 142 points)

There are three points I would like to illustrate.

First, notice the top kicker from each season. None of these kickers were able to break the top five the following season. Neil Rackers and Robbie Gould each made it to the seventh ranking the following year. Not bad, but if you spent a relatively early pick on one of them, it would have been a big disappointment.

Adam Vinatieri went from the best fantasy kicker in 2004 to 22nd in 2005. A definite bust if you drafted him early. Mason Crosby went from No. 1 in 2007 to 12th in 2008, making him the last starting kicker worth using in a 12-team league.

Second, only three kickers cracked the top five two years in a row and no one has done it three years in a row. Steven Gostowski has done it in 2007 and 2008 while Jeff Wilkens made the top five in 2005 and 2006, yet in 2007 only managed to finish 23rd overall.

Shayne Graham made the list in 2004 and 2005, yet in 2006 ranked 13th overall. Rackers and Jeff Reed are the only other kickers that have made the Top Five ranking twice.

This means that over the past five years, only five kickers have been ranked in the Top Five twice, and no one has done it more than twice.

Third, the 12th-ranked kicker is usually only a fraction of a point per week difference than the fifth-ranked kicker. The top two kickers every year are about a one point difference per week than the fifth-ranked kicker.

Certainly, having Rackers in 2005, Gould in 2006, or Crosby in 2007 would have been a great asset for your fantasy team. The problem is that it is too hard to predict who will be the top kicker from year to year.

As a matter of fact, Gould and Crosby were waiver wire pickups for probably 99 percent of those who owned them. Rackers was never a popular pick prior to 2005 either.

I will conclude with a brief story about a draft I participated in last fall. The first kicker off the board was Nick Folk, drafted in the 12th round of a 20-round draft.

After the usual laughing, insulting, and heckling that follows when the first kicker is drafted, the person who drafted Folk stood up and yelled "Folk is the best kicker, man, and he plays for Dallas! He could be the best kicker ever! I would rather have the best kicker than throw darts and try to pick from a bunch of scrubs."

By Week Seven, this guy was starting Bironas as his kicker for the rest of the year, whom he had drafted in the 20th round to serve as a backup.

Some of those "scrubs" he passed up on? How about Eddie Royal, Pierre Thomas, Warrick Dunn, Darren Sproles, Joe Flacco, Kevin Walter, and Justin Gage? Not to mention several top defenses such as the Titans, Panthers, Ravens, and Packers, who all got drafted over the next several picks.

It's a classic case of why a kicker shouldn't be taken too early.

The New Class of Fantasy Football First-Round Running Backs: Part II

Chris DiLeo — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 20:46:05 -0500

With the end to an era of top fantasy running backs, comes a new class of young running backs looking to overtake the fantasy rankings.

There are many talented new running backs currently in the NFL. The following is a list of running backs I believe will dominate in fantasy football for the next several years.

Those players include Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, and Pierre Thomas.

Below I will breakdown each player. This is a great list for anyone who is getting into the first year of a keeper league. I do assume points per reception.

Please note: Young running backs such as Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Marion Barber, and Joseph Addai are certainly going to be quality running backs for years to come, but I do not consider them "new" to the scene, being that I have seen them as first round picks the past two years.

Adrian Peterson

It doesn't take a fantasy football guru to come up with this one. A strong, powerful running back with great speed and quickness who runs behind one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. He is always a threat to break a long TD run.

With only 40 receptions in 30 games played, there is a little to be desired in that respect, but A.P. should definitely be at the top of fantasy drafts for years to come.

Maurice Jones-Drew

The time is now for MJD.

He exploded on the scene his rookie year in 2006 with 15 TDs and almost 1,400 total yards.

There was a decline in production in 2007, where he managed nine TDs and nearly 1,200 yards of total offense. This decline was attributed to a rejuvenated Fred Taylor, who managed to have his best season since 2004.

In 2008, Fred Taylor began to show the wear and tear on his 33-year-old legs, ultimately ending his season on injured reserve after Week 14. MJD again put up very good numbers—14 TD's and just under 1,400 total yards.

He also hauled in 62 receptions after averaging 43 in each of his first two seasons.

Jones-Drew is entering a contract year in 2009. Rumors have it that either Fred Taylor will be released, or he will agree to a major pay cut. This leaves MJD as the primary option, and he only has 530 carries in three years, so his legs are still very fresh.

At 5' 7" and 212 pounds, he has the strength to run inside and the speed to run outside. He is tough, having missed only one game to injury in his three-year career.

When you figure that MJD has averaged about 13 TDs and over 1,300 yards of offense as a secondary option in Jacksonville, imagine what he can produce as a featured running back.

Throw in the fact he is a popular target in the passing game, and that should solidify his place in the top of the rankings for quite some time.

Matt Forte

If I had the first pick in a keeper league this year, Forte would be my choice. Besides having the perfect build for a running back at 6'1" 224lbs., he also has strength, good speed, and exceptional hands. Most of all, I appreciate his exceptional attitude.

It takes more than talent to succeed long-term in the NFL. Everything I have read about him from coaches and players tells me he is the epitome of a team player.

As far as I am concerned, that is just as valuable as talent.

For those who care more about fantasy production than good attitudes, consider this—Forte accounted for the highest percentage of his team's offensive production than any other running back in 2008. That amounted to 12 total TDs and just over 1,700 total yards.

His receiving skills really put him over the top, catching more passes than any other running back (63 receptions).

Forte is an every-down running back who gets the goal line carries. That makes him an extremely valuable commodity. There are rumors in Chicago that GM Jerry Angelo wants to reduce Forte's workload in 2009. I wouldn't buy too much into that, it is common for coaches and GMs to talk like that in the off-season.

But when the games are played, it is always the best player who gets the action.

In Chicago, the best player is clearly Matt Forte.

DeAngelo Williams

This is another pick I do not expect to surprise many people. Williams averaged 5.5 yards per carry, gained over 1,500 yards rushing, scored 20 total TDs, and even tallied 22 receptions. All this in only his third year in the NFL.

However, there are some analysts who think it is a matter of time before Jonathan Stewart takes over the primary role in the backfield.

I remember when the Giants drafted Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne. Despite the popular "Thunder & Lightning" nickname, many felt Tikki Barber was only there to eventually give way to Dayne.

I am not predicting Stewart's career to end up like Dayne's, but I do believe DeAngelo Williams will be the Carolina workhorse for years to come—similar to Tikki Barber's role in New York.

Carolina kept true to their word when they said they would go back to being a smash-mouth, running football team. They restructured their offensive line for that purpose. They drafted behemoth tackle Jeff Otah, and started their 2007 second round pick Ryan Kalil at center.

Add left tackle Jordan Gross (drafted 2003) alongside talented run blocking guard Travelle Wharton, and this O-Line is built for pushing around opposing defenses.

Need proof? The Panthers finished the year ranked third in the NFL in rushing, averaging 152.3 yards per game.

During the preseason of 2008, I remember hearing a few interviews with DeAngelo in which he claimed to have matured both personally and professionally.

He said the game has begun "to slow down." I found this very interesting at the time because, as I mentioned with Forte, I highly value personal maturity and attitude in players. I must confess, however, that I didn't buy into what he was saying. I figured he was trying to save his job.

Well, after his performance in 2008, I am convinced he meant what he said, and he will continue to be a top player for many years.

Marshawn Lynch

Already a (late) first-round pick in many drafts in 2008, Lynch should continue to be a valuable running back for fantasy teams for years to come. I like his running style, he always has his legs moving, and refuses to go down easily.

I don't see Lynch as a running back who will put up huge numbers, but he will consistently produce 1,000-1,300 rushing yards and 7-10 TDs every year.

His receiving skills should add another 40 or 50 receptions for 300 to 500 receiving yards. If the Bills can improve as a team, these projections can be bumped up 10 percent.

It is hard to talk about a player's consistency when he has only played two years, but I have not been able to shake the feeling Lynch is the next Rudi Johnson in fantasy football.

Johnson was always solid, yet was unspectacular, and for several years he was always drafted in the first round after all the other high-profile running backs were off the board, usually between pick No. 9 and pick 12. I believe this is where Lynch is destined to end up.

Michael Turner

When the Falcons signed "Turner the Burner" before the 2008 season, I thought it was a waste of good talent. I wasn't alone in thinking the Falcons would be a bad football team.

They were coming off a bad year filled with turmoil following the Michael Vick debacle. Their solution?

Hand the team over to a rookie quarterback who would play behind a shaky offensive line. As much as I was always a fan of Turner, I felt his new situation would severely hinder his potential.

Well, the Falcons surprised everyone. The so called "shaky offensive line" paved the way for Atlanta's second-ranked rushing offense at a clip of 152.7 yards per game. Turner rushed for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Matt Ryan will only get better, and as he improves, so will the Falcons. Turner will continue to be the workhorse on the ground, as evidenced by his 377 carries last year. He still has plenty in the tank, given his previous four seasons in San Diego where he had just 228 carries.

In leagues that do not award points per reception, Turner belongs among the top three running backs. However, when receptions count, Turner's value takes a slight hit. He only managed six receptions in 2008, and totaled only 11 in four years with the Chargers.

Chris Johnson

The bad news? The Titans are a full blown running back-by-committee offense. The good news? The Titans love to run the ball. Despite a near 50-50 split with LenDale White, Johnson still rushed the ball 251 times.

Normally I would never consider such a running back as a first round pick. However, Johnson is such a special talent. He is so fast. Every time he touches the ball it looks like he can break a long touchdown. He also has excellent hands, accounting for 43 receptions in 2008.

Despite playing with a touchdown vulture like LenDale White, Johnson still managed nine rushing TDs—and added another by reception. He is more than capable of punching in a short touchdown run inside the 10-yard line, but he just doesn't get the opportunity very often.

As long as Johnson is part of a committee, I would not draft him early in the first round, but I would definitely take him over any quarterback or wide receiver when it comes to the last few picks of the first round. Being that he is part of a committee, his lighter load should extend his career, giving him many more productive years ahead.

Pierre Thomas

I admit, this one may be a reach. It is hard to come up with concrete numbers to make my case here. When I watch Thomas play, I just think he will be a special talent for years to come. He showed a glimpse of his talent week 17 in 2007 where he rushed for 105 yards and had 12 receptions for 121 yards and 1 receiving TD against the Bears.

In 2008, he didn't get a real opportunity until Week 11. From Week 11 through Week 16, Thomas rushed for 475 yards (5.1 yards per rush), scored six TDs, and caught 19 passes. These numbers are very good, but it is always wise to be cautious about statistics over a short time span.

Thomas' durability has been questioned, adding further hesitation for fantasy owners. I do not expect Thomas to be drafted in the first round this year. If Thomas takes over the starting role in New Orleans in 2009, I believe his production will make him a first-round pick come 2010 and beyond.

This could be the last year to draft Thomas while he is under the radar.

The New Class of Fantasy Football First-Round Running Backs, Pt. 1

Chris DiLeo — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 15:34:51 -0500

Drafting a running back in the first round is the most common strategy for people who play fantasy football. In a nutshell, the theory is that there are usually only a handful of reliable running backs who can consistently put up big numbers week to week, so it's best to grab one early. The drop off in production for the fourth best running back to the tenth is usually much greater than the drop off in fantasy points for quarterbacks or wide receivers at similar rankings.

Prior to 2008, in practically all of the fantasy drafts over the previous five years (in standard scoring, 12-team leagues), the first round consisted of at least ten running backs. The only exceptions being players like Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, & even Kurt Warner when he was leading "The Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis.

We saw a shift in 2008, where several first round picks were not running backs. This decision was based largely on the fact that 2007 saw a decline in running back production. We saw players like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo frequently among the top 12 picks this past year. On occasion I even saw a Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, or Braylon Edwards get picked up in round one. Many have been saying this is going to be a new trend going forward in fantasy football.

I do not believe this is a new trend. Drafting a running back is almost always the best decision with a first round pick (especially in the top half of a draft). In my opinion, 2008 was a correction year. Every few years, there is a new crop of stud running backs to take over as an older crop of running backs begin to decline in production. Usually, the transition is relatively straight forward in that all the "experts" can predict the potential of new studs based on circumstances & a player's past production. For example, as Priest Holmes began to break down, it was not difficult to predict Larry Johnson was going to be a stud.

From 2003 through 2006 the following running backs were frequent, it not perennial, first round picks: LaDanian Tomlinson, Duece McCallister, Shawn Alexander, Edgerrin James, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Clinton Portis, and Rudi Johnson. During their prime, this was a very impressive list of top talent, but now it clearly represents a list of players on the decline (although Portis proved to be a great fourth round value in '07).

In 2007, choosing a top running back seemed to be a crapshoot as fantasy drafters chose players like Joseph Addai, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Reggie Bush, Lawrence Maroney, Willie Parker, Willis Mcgahee, and Travis Henry in the first round. Several of these players were complete busts (Maroney, Henry, L.J.), while the rest did not live up to expectations of a high draft pick (unless you drafted Addai late in the first round). Despite the disappointing 2007 and 2008 results of first round running backs, I believe there is optimism for 2009 and beyond.

The following is a list of running backs which I believe will dominate the first round of fantasy drafts for the next several years: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, and Pierre Thomas.

Please note, I did not order the list from best to worst. I simply listed the players I believe will produce top fantasy points on a consistent basis for years to come. It is also worth noting, my analysis assumes point per reception scoring formats. In part two I will breakdown each player listed, and why I believe they are part of the next class of first round running backs.