Bleacher Report - Articles by Dean Somerville

Packers' Wild Card Hunt in Good Shape

Dean Somerville — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:46:10 -0500

While some may doubt the talent Ted Thompson has brought to this 2009 Green Bay Packers team and others (myself included) lament many of Mikey's play calls, I am now reaffirming what I stated preseason—the Packers are going to the playoffs.

On a day when there is much concern regarding the losses of Harris and Kampman, I look back to the injuries that cost us last season.

Nick Barnett is the heart and soul of this D. When he went down, the Packers had no answer. When Jenkins went down, the double teams piled onto Kampman.

Depth has been added and our linebacker crew this year will not miss Kampman much, as younger guys like Jones, Chillar and Poppinga step in. That says nothing of Thompson, Ozkifor and the injured Bishop for next season.

The critical loss of Barnett will not be duplicated in the loss of Kampman. Drafting Raji and the great move up to get Matthews have plugged the holes that caused the 5-5 to 6-10 collapse of 2008. Thompson really did fix the major problem from last season.

I digress from my article, but that infusion of talent in those two players is now the difference. With six weeks left in the season, the Packers have three near-guaranteed wins with Detroit, the reeling Ravens and the woeful Seahawks.

Chicago has been decidedly weak against the pass and our passing attack is at least above average.

Pittsburgh will be desperate, but are having just as much trouble containing a pass rush as our own Packers and even worse special teams, so that is at least a tossup.

The final game on the schedule is in Arizona. With the Vikings and Saints likely having wrapped up the byes weeks before the last Sunday, it seems unlikely the game will mean much to Arizona. It is my opinion that the Packers are likely going to stay in Arizona for the following week's Wild Card game.

Looking forward to the playoff picture, most must now concede that the Saints and Vikings will clinch divisions and byes. The Vikings need only one win or one Packer loss in the last six to clinch the division. The same foes for the Saints and the Falcons.

The Cardinals need only two wins in six to clinch the West. To gain homefield, Arizona needs at least three Vikings losses or four from the Saints in addition to a perfect finish. Winning the lotto is as likely as that scenario. Those three teams will clearly be in the NFC playoffs.

The Packers playoff picture revolves around four other teams and three of five will make the playoffs. Let me examine them.

The Cowboys have Oakland at home Thursday. While the Raiders have not been much this season, they have a stout defense and the Cowboys have but two touchdowns in the last two games and seem to be going into their late season swoon.

Following that, the Cowboys are at the Giants before hosting the division-leading Chargers, followed by a trip to the undefeated Saints, then to Washington, whom they were fortunate to beat in Dallas this week. Their season concludes with what likely be an all-or-nothing game with the Eagles. Ouch. Hard to believe they win more than three. There are at least two losses Cowboys-Giants, Cowboys-Eagles that must benefit the Packers hopes.

Philly's road is no less treacherous. They host Washington, then must go to the playoff-desperate Atlanta and the equally desperate Giants follow. In Weeks 15 and 16, they host San Fran and Denver, whom at present seem to be heading the wrong direction. As mentioned above, they conclude in Dallas. Looking at the relevant games, Philly-Atlanta, Philly-Giants and Philly-Cowboys, there are three more guaranteed losses.

The Giants are in no less peril. They go to Denver Thursday to face an equally desperate and reeling team. Following that, they host back-to-back division rivals Dallas and Philly. Then they go to Washington, host the potentially surprising Panthers and wind up in Minnesota.

Atlanta is a game behind the Packers, Giants and Eagles, but have arguably the easiest schedule next to Green Bay. For starters, they are the only team with four home games. Granted, after Tampa they host Philly and New Orleans, but their final three are at the Jets, hosting Buffalo and at Tampa. It is not unlikely they go 5-1. The game between them and Philly could be clearly the playoff dictator.

With three of these five teams making the playoffs, and the inter-division games counting for at least two losses for one of the three East teams and another for either Philly or Atlanta, the simple math says that if the Packers win four of six, they are guaranteed a Wild Card spot.

When one throws in that the other four teams have a combined three games against division-foe Washington, a game in Denver at Mile High, a visit to undefeated New Orleans, a visit from the Saints and a game in Minnesota, the very serious odds of any two of those teams going more than 3-3 is remote at best.

My fearless projection: Dallas goes 2-4, finishes 9-7; Giants go 3-3, also finish 9-7; Philly goes 4-2, wins division at 10-6; Atlanta goes 4-2, finishes 9-7.

Packers will go 5-1 and secure the top Wild Card spot at 11-5. A trip to 10-6 Philly for the rematch of the infamous fourth-and-26 game, rather than the warmth of 11-5 Arizona, would ensue.

I'll let the math majors among you determine which 9-7 team between the Giants, Cowboys and Falcons gets the sunny trip to Arizona, but the one thing I am sure of is that this Packers team is too good not to be the Wild Card favorite as of today.

Projecting The Packers 53 Man Roster For 2009

Dean Somerville — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 23:01:06 -0400

There are many positions that are easy to come to the numbers of players the Packers will keep entering the 2009 season. There will be three special teams specialists, and for argument sake I will designate Goode as the LS, Kapinos as the P and Crosby as the K.

There will be another 50 spots which I will designate 25 to offense and 25 to defense.

In order to get to the analysis of whom will be the serious position battles I will designate many people as having spots on the roster made. If readers feel some of these are not secure, please comment on them as well.

At the QB spot, I presume the team will carry three entering the season, and Rodgers, Flynn and Brohm have the three spots locked up notwithstanding a significant injury.

At WR I forsee four spots clearly not being challenged, Jennings, Driver, Jones and Nelson.

I see 2 TE Lee and Findlay.

I see 2 RB Grant and Jackson

I see 2 FB Johnson and

I see 7 OL Sitton, College, Spitz, Clifton, Moll. Preston and Barbre.

These 20 men have spots about guaranteed. This leaves five spots on offense in a competition scenario. I project at least two more O linemen and 1 more WR will be certain additions. This will leave a balancing act for the remaining two spots.

Among the O Linemen battling for the two roster spots will be four for two with a likely spot, possibly two on the development squad. Veterans Scott Wells and Brenno Giacomini will battle draft picks Meredith and Lang. My first major projection for this year is that Scott Wells loses his roster spot to Giacomini who can back up at either Tackle position and is the 8th roster spot on the line. I also project both draftees Merideth and Lang end up on the development squad. Other linemen Randolph, Dietrich and Hartline are severe longshots at best. The only true wildcard in this competition is if the Packers get a viable trade offer for either Wells or Clifton.

Since it seems very likely the team will keep a fifth WR it seems to me there is a direct battle between Martin and Swain for the remaining spot, and at this point I give the edge to Swain due to youth and return ability for special teams. Veteran Martin becomes the second veteran to lose a spot. Swain could possibly be kept one more year on the development squad, but to me that is not likely a spot to be targeted for a WR. The other five WR on the roster: Allen, Harris, Simmons, Heckendorf, and Williams would all seem very unlikely to crack this roster, and are only here in case of an injury to one or more of the six guys in front of them.

The very toughest decisions may be the final two spots, which will be shared among RB, FB, and TE. Lumpkin is likely the RB with the most upside. With this being a likely need it drops Kuhn, Wynn and the big surprise convert LB to TE Spencer Havner into the mix for the final spot on O. Due to his outstanding play on special teams, the conversion to TE is the reason the Packers keep Havner and cut Kuhn and Wynn. Sutton the final RB on the roster or one of the previous two ends up with one spot on the practice squad. Another veteran TE Humphrey is another numbers casualty.

This is indeed a talented roster when one needs to project an OL starter Wells, a WR roster player Martin, a TE roster player Humphrey and a RB roster player Wynn all losing their roster spots, with still no room for draft picks Meredith and Lang from this year anywhere but the practice squad.

Shifting focus to the defense where I have also budgeted 25 roster spots, I have simply divided the team into three groups DL, LB and DBs without splitting the linemen into NT vs DEs or the LB into interior or outside, nor the DBs into Safeties or Corners.

It is my opinion the 53 man roster will include seven DL, nine LB and nine DB, and I have already projected an “extra” LB in third TE plus special teamer Havner.

On the defensive line it seems five spots are near certain locks. Jenkins, Jolly, Raji, Pickett, and Harrell would only miss the roster due to an injury. Veterans Montgomery, Malone and Toribo will battle rookies draft choice Wynn and FAs Muhtadi and Talley. This may be one of the most difficult position battles to project, as the body of work is not sufficient to really make informed decisions. I will go out on a limb and project veteran Montgomery shows the grit and experience and claims one of the spots. For no reason other than the fact they used a draft pick on him, I give the narrowist of margins to Wynn to claim the final DL spot with one of the remaining four: Malone, Toribo, Muhtadi or Talley getting a spot on the practice squad.

The seconday would seem to me to have eight of the nine spots locked in. Woodson, Williams and Lee at CB Collins, Rouse, Bigby and Smith at safety and Blackmon as backup and kick returner. The competition for the final spot will fall between veterans Al Harris, Bush, and Peprah and I expect a mild surprise in the Packers moving Harris before the end of camp. Peprah has the advantage on Bush as a better tackler and special teamer. Draft choice Underwood might claim a practice squad spot with Ford and Porter joining Harris and Bush seeking employment elsewhere.

The final group to look at is the LB squad. Seven guys seem to me to be locks barring injury: Kampman, Hawk, Barnett, Thompson, Matthews, Bishop and Poppinga. The other five listed, veterans Chillar and Lansanah will be pushed by rookies Jones and Obizor, while I have given Havner a special teams spot. Chillar is clearly the most polished LB in the group and is likely to be shopped in a trade, but if he cannot be moved makes the squad. One of rookies Obizor or Jones gets the final development spot, I give the edge to Obizor on size, leaving veteran Lansanah and rookie Jones out of jobs.

This scenario would leave three veterans from the defense: Harris, Bush and Havner gone from the team. It seems hard to believe that at least six veterans will lose roster spots. That fact bodes well for a much improved team.

In my scenario only three of the eight draft picks make the 53 man roster. An additional two make the practice squad and 3 are likely to be released. Only one post draft FA sticks on the practice squad. With those projections it is hard to argue that this is a roster very well stacked with talent and the future not only for 2009 but many years to come is very bright in Packerland.

Packers Position Battles Resulting from the 2009 Draft

Dean Somerville — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:56:44 -0400

This draft may prove to be the sword that strikes off the heads of the Ted Thompson bashers.

With the No. 9 pick, he drafted BJ Raji, who is an instant impact player on the D line. If Raji does not outright start, he gets significant playing time and pushes the projected starter Pickett into competition with Jolly and Harrell for time at DE.

This DL group now has five legitimate big bodies with playing time and a first round draft pick. There are also three other roster players from last season competing for playing time and roster spots. One pick and re-signing the FA spot player have converted this weakness to a strength.

Clay Matthews could go down as one of the greatest deals Thompson has made. With the family pedigree, and the scary hair similarity to his new coach Kevin Green, expect him to start immediately. With incumbents Hawk and Barnett in the middle, backed by Bishop, who has shown flashes of brilliance, the inside is between solid and spectacular.

While I do expect Matthews to ultimately win the starting OLB spot, the competition will be beyond intense. Kampman is an all pro who gets to rush from wherever he lines up, and will be pushed hard by Hunter and Thompson, who both had plenty of playing time at DE last season.

Matthews must beat out incumbents Poppinga, Chillar, and others for the other spot. With seven players with plenty of playing time already on the roster, adding a talent like Matthews will allow tremendous flexibility in the packages the defensive coordinators can employ.

Rotation of playing time and flexability at both the DL and LB positions will make the 2009 edition of the Packers a vastly improved bunch from the group that suffered collapses in the second halves of games last season.

These two guys, Raji and Matthews, will instantly transform the team weakness to a team strength...a front seven that will not be run on, and that should put fear in QB and offensive coordinators who do not know where the heat is coming from.

The free agent signings and drafting of another DB indicates to me one thing—Al Harris' days are numbered in Green Bay. With a roster featuring Woodson and Williams, who are likely both already ahead of him in zone coverage schemes, plus six other NFL quality DB on the roster that will and do play special teams, this draft does spell the end for one of the aged stars. Bye Al Harris, it was a good career.

On offense the team was set at QB and WR, both being the envy of most teams in terms of first line star power and backup depth.

The RB spots are very capably filled, and with the addition of a new draft choice, could see some variation in alignment to many more H back sets, to offset the lack of production from the TE spots.

Adding two OT draft picks to an OL with youth and depth but lacking in cohesion means there will be significant battles for the starting spots. Likely only College and Spitz have spots secured as starters.

Tausher is very unlikely to be resigned, unless a massive rash of injuries hit at that spot. This draft class did not push Tausher out, he was likely already passed on the depth chart anyway. The guy this draft puts in the line of fire to retain his job is Chad Clifton.

As sad as it is to see aging stars lose the fight with youth, it is this writer's opinion that Tauscher, Clifton, Chillar, and Harris are all casualties between now and the start of the season. Trades are likely for all, as they are still NFL caliber players, they just cannot play on a Packer team loaded with talent.

Wells and Popping enter training camp playing for their starting jobs.

When a team like the Packers has to displace talent of the quality of the guys, it says great things about the record the 2009 team should put on the board. After this draft a 10 win season is only a minimum expectation, and the return to the 13-3 record is certainly not out of the question.

Kampman, Driver, Woodson, Barnett, and Rodgers, the emotional leaders of the team must know they have the team to win now and must be the leaders to get them there.

While not yet cohesive and dominant in some of the position groups at this time, by the end of training camp I project the Packers to be in the discussion with the Giants and the Panthers as the best in the NFC.

Green Bay Packers' Draft Choices: Dean Somervilles' Draft Analysis

Dean Somerville — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 18:08:20 -0400

While I have speculated a lot on trade possibilities for the No. 9 pick, I have now reached the conclusion that the value in front of them means the Packers will use their own pick.

In a pleasant surprise B.J. Raji is still on the board and becomes the pick, solidifying the center of the defense for years to come.

The second choice, although I think they have to move up several spots to get him is the scary physical specimen Jarron Gilbert. This second big body pick is potentially the plug in pick to team with "Ted's Salvation" and be the bookend defensive end to "Mr. broken Harrell" for a dream defensive linemen for years to come. This is just for fun after all.

No the Packers do not trade No. 9.

The third pick is another defensive player.

No they do not take a punter.

Green Bay Packers Trade Possibilities: April Edition

Dean Somerville — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:24:24 -0400

This article updates my thought processes from my March article.

As the draft day gets closer, the shuffling near the top of the draft becomes more intense.

This year's draft class has two QBs that are near locks to be in the top eight. There is only one other NFL-quality QB in this draft, Kansas State grad Josh Freeman. The quality falloff behind him is precipitous.

As of today, it seems Detroit selects top-QB Matthew Stafford while Seattle, at No. 4, seems to be seriously infatuated with Mark Sanchez, unless the Jets trade far enough (KC at number three) to get him.

Jacksonville at eight, San Francisco at 12, and Washington at 13 would all love an upgrade at QB. There are only three to be had so if Sanchez is not the first target, that creates a trade up and he will likely be gone by pick five.

Josh Freeman now becomes the driver of the picks and trade possibilities until he is gone.

Too many teams need a QB upgrade for him to last beyond No. 10, so somebody will be calling Green Bay for the ninth pick to jump in front of San Francisco. If the Jets do not move up to get Sanchez, I fully expect the trade for the ninth pick to go to the Jets for pick No. 17, or the pick aquired in the trade from Buffalo.

With the serious "top run" on the three QBs and top three OTs, there could be a couple of other players on the board who might persuade the Packers to move down.

Receiver Michael Crabtree has the talent to be a game changer. His presence could make several teams try to trade up, but he is the kind of "value pick" that Thompson could not really let pass. That would make the Packers receivers scary-good. Oakland or Cleveland will likely grab him, though, unless they have traded down by that point.

Curry, LB, is the only other "consensus" player projected above No. 9. While he surely would fit with the Packers, I could not see ex-linebacker and Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio letting him go past number eight.

I now get to the point where the player I previously said would already be gone remains on the board. BJ Raji, through the needs of the other teams forcing the draft, falls to the Packers at ninth.

Through all the wild speculation of him being gone as high as third to Kansas City or sixth to Oakland, the "other teams" address higher needs and Raji falls to the Packers at nine.

As of today, Freeman and Raji are the two players who could dictate a trade by the Packers from the ninth spot.

The other player I could see creating a trade would be up, not down. It would involve our No. 41 pick and extra to get right to the end of the first or ahead of Kansas City in the second to select a defensive end they covet.

Green Bay Packers Draft Puzzle: April Update

Dean Somerville — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 18:46:27 -0400

This article is a follow-up to my March article regarding draft needs.

In the six weeks since I published the first article, only a few things have changed the evaluation and needs situation.

A depth DB (safety) has been signed, and a depth OL has been signed as free agents. Our own FA have been resigned, including a couple I felt had little to contribute.

A month plus of further analysis, including analyzing the rosters of the other two competitive teams in the division, has only confirmed the needs speculated at the time.

Primary need is still a DL, either at end or NT. Raji has clearly further established himself as the "value pick" at No. 9 if he is still on the board, and recent movement seems to make that possibility more likely. If he is there, I believe the Packers take him without looking at trades down. If he is gone, I see them trading back a few spots and taking DE Jackson or even further down to look at DE/LB hybrid Maybin or DE Ayers, DT Hood, or Brace.

The "best talent available" could truly throw a curve at this scenario if Michael Crabtree WR or OL Smith are on the board and Raji is gone. They would be too much to pass up.

With picks in the second and third rounds, it seems a near certainty that two DL, one LB, and one OT will be the "positions" selected unless there is a value that cannot be passed on.

The only other spot that seems certain to have a player selected is at TE. There are "values" in the third round and every round after that.

That stated, it seems certain to me that two DL, one OT, one TE, and one LB will be picked. The other four choices will only be for "best available talent."

What gives me a great feeling entering the draft is that only two players from the entire roster last year are not back—yet. One, a good but totally replaceable DL, the other an aging OT. Those two guys fuel the draft needs, and the replacements are likely already on the roster. This year's draft could be entirely for development.

Next week I will write another article, not really evaluating the draft of the Packers, but giving my assessment of which of the nine picks have a chance to make the team.

First, a thought for all to debate: None of this year's draft class will start in September at the start of the season. The good news is that it is not going to be a poor draft, but that the Packers already have one of the best rosters in the NFL.

Packers' Potential Two Late Sleeper Picks

Dean Somerville — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 17:43:50 -0400

Not many NFL fans think about talent coming from Canadian Universities. Here are two that I would love to see Ted Thompson and the Packer team take a run at.

Vaughn Martin is a 6'3", 330+ pound defensive lineman with sub-five second 40 speed, strength numbers to match B.J. Raji, and the highest Wonderlic score in this year's draft class. While he has not had the same level of coaching or competition and experience, this pure talent should not slip by the third round, and is a certain fit for the Packers needs and has a cold weather performance record. Ted—pick No. 83 should be Martin.

Jamaal Lee is a big and hugely fast RB at 6' tall and 225 pounds with 4.34 speed in the 40-meter dash. Like Martin, Lee is a bit short on coaching and experience, but the kind of raw talent and speed that some teams will learn to fear. Ted—pick No. 109 should be Lee.

Green Bay Packers' 2009 Draft-Day Trade Possibilities

Dean Somerville — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 22:46:51 -0400

When viewing the 2009 Packers needs and draft assets the first thing we look at is history and try to guess what Ted Thompson is thinking.

The Packers have a rising young offense with a potential holes at the OT spot and TE depth required. The Defense changed styles, but clearly need size and depth on the DL, someone to bring pressure on the QB and a possible replacement for the CB spot.

Only four true needs and a couple of wants.

Their draft assets pre-Apr. 25 are:

Pick No. 9 -- 1350 pts

Pick No. 41 – 500 pts

Pick No. 73 -- 225 pts

Pick No. 83 – 175 pts

Pick No. 108 -- 78 pts

As you can see the four picks in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds do not have a great significance “points” wise, but are often use to try to balance the “points” system that is kind of used by teams in evaluating draft choices.

With a value of over 1000 points teams should get enough value from a player or players to change the face of games even seasons. Is there a player or players that change the face of the team that much with the No. 9 pick.

For Packers' team needs in 2009, likely the only player that meets the value criteria is BJ Raji the BC nose tackle, but at present they may have to move up to get him. Do they have “value” to move up to get that player?

Yes, but it is totally out of line with Thompson’s historical reaction in the draft.

My hypothesis is that the No. 9 pick is traded down to get two players to plug in. To get the right value, and let the other team “save face” for giving up too much for one player, the most likely trade is a two-for-two or more.

To get a trade done, both sides have to want it. If we assume for this moment, Packer want to trade down to get increased value at two or more spots rather than shooting for one impact player, they must find a trade partner with enough goods and needs to make a trade possible.

Without factoring in 2010 or further draft year choices, and only brushing on active roster players, the list of potential trade partners for the No. 9 pick is fairly short.

Philadelphia has picks 21, 28 and several more selections. N England has picks 23, 34 and many more selections. NY Jets have 17, 52, 76, 111, and 114 which would be of interest.

NY Giants have 29, 45, 60 and roster players, who may have a lot of interest. Miami has picks 25, 44, 56 and 87. If a very major trade down is in the cards, one of these five teams is the group that has the most likely to have an attractive package for a “major trade.”

To entice a trade with one of these teams, there has to be a player on the board at the time of the selection that is deemed by the team to be the “target” for their team.

Philadelphia may believe they are only a WR of impact proportion, or an OT that is a fixture away from a championship. They might trade up to grab Crabtree the WR, or they may have OT Oher or Smith ranked way higher than No. 9.

Packers looking to gain picks 21, 28 and give up a fourth or fifth rounder to balance could make great sense for both teams. I give this option about 15 percent.

New England may believe one CB or one rush DE is critical to success and have Jenkins or Arakpo or anther player as their target. Picks 23 and 34 are a near straight value trade for the No. 9 pick. This could make good sense to New England, who have an abundance of picks.

I give this option approaching 10 percent.

The Jets may see QB Sanchez as a franchise QB and have a great urgency to get ahead of say San Fransisco who may be targeting that player. Picks 17 and 52 are not far from value, and the “small change” on the side are something both teams could see as beneficial.

Again I see about 10 percent.

The NY Giants no doubt see a WR as critical to getting to the super bowl. Crabtree could easily be the stimulus to get a trade done up to No. 9. While picks 29 and 45 do not add to the required value, they have a roster stacked with D linemen. (Barry Cofield pictured above.)

Certainly one of two or three of their DL could be seen as the extra “value” to make this happen. The teams already have a history, so this choice I rank highest at 15 – 20 percent. Each can fulfill the "need" on the other roster with the least pain to their own.

The Miami Dolphins are the last team with four picks in the first three rounds that “value” to the No. 9 may be a consideration. Sanchez could be the driver, and picks 25 and 44 are only a bit short, about a fifth rounder.

This is possible, but I have no inkling how high the Tuna may rank Sanchez. Five – 10 percent.

Overall, I would project a “major trade” of the No. 9 pick for two picks or players rests in the vicinity of 50 – 60 percent. Those are the “major trade” two for one type trades the No. 9 pick might bring.

Teams only a few spots lower may look to trade up just a few positions to get ahead of another team for a specific player they feel may go. QB Sanchez, WR Crabtree, OL Oher and Smith, DL / LB Arakpo or Brown or CB Jenkins could trigger teams only a few spots lower to try to jump up.

Only five of the teams picking between 11 and 20 have “additional value” that would really allow them to make a move up.

Buffalo with picks 11, 42, and 75 clearly have the extra value to do an up and down trade, but with the players on the board it seems unlikely that the OL or CB value would entice them to trade up.

Also, historically not a franchise that makes many draft day moves. Denver with picks 12, 48, and 79 also have plenty of value with only 150 points required for the three spots move up.

With WR, and an entire defense in need, they are more likely to be trying to trade down, the wild card being Cutler but any trade involving him would already have netted the QB or an even higher draft choice.

Chicago with picks 18, 48, and 84, despite the fact they are in the division have such a tremendous hole at WR and at DB and at OT...ouch, not likely they trade up, they need more picks, not less, they too should be trading down.

One position down to SF is unlikely unless SF were totally convinced Tampa, Denver was about to make the trade to move and grab Sanchez. This also assumes Sanchez is their pick. Less than five percent.

Washington at 13, New Orleans at 14 and San Diego at 16 likely do not have the other values to make a trade viable for the Packers. Picks 17 and 20 were traded from the original holders and discussed earlier.

Houston, with picks 15, 46 and 77, plus a GM that does make moves are clearly in the mix, and one of the DE / LB that bring QB pressure could be the enticement to get them to the top of their division.

So if Texas native Arakpo or Brown are on the board Houston could clearly want to get in front of SF, Buf, Denv, Wash, NO, or even the Packers themselves who could all be looking at their pick.

Fifteen, 77 and fourth rounder, or 15, 46, and them getting back one of the Packers' third rounders gets a 10 – 15 percent chance.

Tampa Bay holds picks 19, 50, and 81. Clearly rebuilding and clearly in need of a franchise QB, Sanchez still on the board makes the No. 19 and 50 picks a very real possibility. This I give 10 – 15 percent, as they clearly see a need to get in front of SF if Sanchez is on the board.

Think of the Houston and Tampa Bay as minor trade options, but that brings seven teams into the mix as at least significantly possible. It is my opinion that there is at least a 60 - 70 percent chance the Packers trade down from No. 9 to one of the seven named teams.

It is my feeling that Thompson and the Packer management are looking at two DL, one LB with pass rush skills and an OL in the first three rounds. They have four picks there already, so I expect they are trying to tweak things to get their greatest perceived value into those four spots.

While it may or may not fall into the categories I listed above I am about 95 percent certain we will see moves other than simply taking the four picks they currently have in those positions on draft weekend.

Thompson has shown a significant leaning to second rounders.

If he cannot move the No. 9 pick to acquire a second pick in the second round, I could easily see roster players (Poppinga, Chillar and Wells come to mind) used in conjunction with lower round picks the two thirds, fourth, and fifth, and two sixth rounders to ensure at least four picks in the top 64.

With a roster that it is unlikely more than four or five draft picks can even crack, I can see movement to have less picks, but higher quality. This is the year they finally have enough depth and balance to not simply “build for the future,” but begin to have the win-now mentality.

Green Bay Packers' Draft Puzzle: March Editon

Dean Somerville — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 01:50:53 -0400

The 2009 edition of the Green Bay Packers is in an enviable position. They only lose a single starter from the 2008 edition, and that could change if Tauscher is re-signed. Think about that in context; average NFL careers are less than five years, and we have a team that none of the 22 starters are gone due to retirement or free agency.

Most teams roll over 20 percent of their starters, four or five per season. Many teams have higher turnover than that. Involentary turnover, not upgrade turnover.

To this team that has transitioned from old to youthful in the last four years, our management has set up this seasons college draft to have nine picks. I will divide the draft into “top half and bottom half” splitting mid-fourth round, about 120 players deep.

Packers have picks nine, 41, 73, 83 and 105: Players whom normally should make team’s rosters.

The four picks beyond the middle of the fourth round are at best a crapshoot on average rosters, on a roster with a “no vacancy” sign hanging in the window any of these guys will seriously have to outperformed their draft status just to stick with the team

Add to the small fact the team is not losing starters, the transition personnel are in place to become starters for all five of the 30+ year olds. Clifton and Tauscher are backed up by Moll and College, both already having significant playing time, plus Giacomini a draft pick from last season that spent a year developing.

The interior line with Wells, Sitton, and Barbre seems set with Carvahllo and McKaskil filling out the O-line with plenty of youth and talent. Getting the unit jelled into an NFL elite is required, and standout young offensive linemen are also a great way to build continuity.

With the depth and talent of the current draft class we may draft an offensive lineman even though this is clearly not a position of need. That further development players are available in later rounds is unlikely to deter taking one of this very gifted class in the first four rounds.

Press pundits point to the age of Tauscher and Clifton but rarely research far enough to discover the replacements are already on the roster.

Jordy Nelson was drafted last year as the replacement for Donald Driver, and along with Jennings and Jones, seems to have the WR spots in very good shape. A draft pick in the top half seems very unlikely, but a late-round development pick is quite possible.

The team has a franchise QB, drafted four years ago and still in the ascendancy of his career. There are two draft picks from last year backing him up, so QB also seems to be in very good shape, and would be considered a large surprise if one of the draft picks is used here.

The running backs are thought to be very functional, if not league elite. Depth at the FB spot would be a nice. With the very short career expectancy for the RB position players, this is always a potential, but would fall into the category of taking a best available player, rather than any true need. A depth pick in the late rounds seems likely.

The TE spot saw a pick utilized on Finley last year, and he is slotted to be the starter this season. Donald Lee the second TE is league functional, but not a standout, and in this team’s offensive scheme better production from the TE spot would certainly be nice.

It is very likely one of the top half picks will be used here, as there is value in the 2009 draft class at TE, and there is a spot for a 3rd TE on the roster.

Few GMs in the league would not sell their soul to have an offense as set as the one in Green Bay. This offense needs coached into the top five in the league. The defensive side of the ball is not nearly so set.

The secondary had two Pro Bowlers, and a replacement Pro Bowler in the starting four. Very impressive other than the fact two of those gentlemen are rapidly approaching the end of their careers, and one was selected on interceptions statistics, not genuine great play.

The transition plan is well in place. Williams is set to step up from nickle to full time starter and replace one of the aging veterans (Harris). A free agent depth safety was added to the mix of three other highly regarded safeties. The other DBs from last season were resigned, and handle the kick return portion of the game.

This is not really a position of need, as any drafted players will have to succeed the incumbent and veteran players will be cut.

There is already depth of that variety on the development roster, so draft picks at that position seem unlikely to be used in the early rounds unless they fall into the “best available player” and a choice simply too good to pass over.

The shallow analysis of the sports-writing community that simply declares this a position of need by pointing to the age of Woodson and Harris has not looked closely enough at the roster.

The offseason saw Packers coaching and management philosophy shifting from the previous 4–3 defensive scheme to a 3–4 scheme. In that front-seven group, one significant playing time backup left as a free agent.

It was a group which suffered huge injury issues, and questions arise as to the fitness of the existing talent to fit the new scheme.

That being said, there are six players on this roster with starting and significant playing time for the four starting LB positions.

Backups for those positions and many special teams players are designated LB. This roster currently has 12 players for these positions. Hawk, Barnett, and Kampman clearly will be starters.

The new coaching staff will need to assess the exact level of need, but from the outside it would seem the only requirement at this position is a player adept at putting pressure on the QB.

From strictly a talent perspective Hunter, Thompson, Bishop, Lansanah, and Havner should all have an excellent opportunity to step into a spotlight role. It is also a position that very likely will see veteran casualties. Poppinga and Chillar are both very good, not outstanding NFL LB.

It seems very likely to me that a trade involving one or both of these guys is about inevitable to make room for the development players. That still only reduces the existing roster to 10, so at least two of these guys is on the bubble prior to the draft, and a rush specialist may be one of the top five picks that should make the team.

It will make for a very interesting and competitive training camp at the LB spots. This is not, therefore, the position of greatest need.

That designation goes to the defensive line.

Of the three starting positions Jenkins who had a significant injury last season seems a lock and a very solid player at one DE spot. Ryan Pickett is thought a solid starter at NT.

Jolly and Harrell are roster players, but seriously have not proven to be either durable or particularly effective. They did re-sign Montgomery, who can be a rotational player, and have Bledsoe and Malone, who were in-season players signed that could not make other rosters.

While as of this moment they could dress the necessary seven bodies to play a game, at least three of those positions need an upgrade, and with potential injuries to these big bodies it would seem to me at least four players from the nine draft picks need to be used to try to fill this, the gaping hole on the team.

Jenkins needs a bookend playmate.

This brings me to looking at the players in this draft class. While there is at least one QB, potentially a WR, and two CB that may push for top-10 spots in the draft, there are only five players in this class that would fit Packer needs and not be thought a stretch.

BJ Raji, the NT, and Aaron Curry the LB are the only two defensive players thought to have certain top-five-through-nine talent in this draft. Either one would create a dash to the podium if available at No. 9, but that is very unlikely to happen.

A trade up to get Raji, the most valuable fit to the Packers roster may be considered. How far up is a value judgement. At present, it is nearly certain that OT Monroe and Smith, and Curry will be top four picks.

Stafford the QB should be as well, with Detroit and Seattle both in that mix. Somewhere between five and eight Raji will very likely go, and would be the value pick on probably most of those team’s board at that point.

The value added to get to No. 5 Cleveland is more than just a third rounder and the No. 9 pick and is very unlikely. Cleveland is not happy with Green Bays' reject at the position and may take him with some spite in mind.

Thompson also values his picks, particularly as high as third rounders, too much for this to happen. To get No. 6 Cincinnati's pick would involve one of the third rounders and balancing of other lower rounders, and is very likely too steep. It is purely possible that Raji is Cinci’s target as well.

Two picks up to No. 7 with Oakland would likely involve the fourth rounder, and is a very real possibility, as long as Crabtree is still on the board and confirmed not to be the Packers' pick; however Raji would be a fine fit in Oakland as well.

One pick up with Jacksonville is most unlikely, as if he is still on the board they would be racing to the podium to grab him. While it is my opinion that trading up to No. 6 to get Raji would be a huge benefit, I do not see it happening.

This leaves the No. 9 pick squarely back in the Packers hands and their needs and value need to be looked at. With Raji and Curry the players of most interest and instant impact for the Packers off the board, they will be looking at the following list to fill team needs and the positional rankings the players have.

Offensive tackles Smith and Oher and even Eben Britton carry top-rated talent levels outside the top two OT. Each has apparent or imagined flaws, and the class is deep enough to get this type of marginal need much later in the draft.

The value is not likely there at No. 9 for an OT, even if other teams may have these guys listed at this level or higher. (And Al Bracco has a hunch!) None of these three would be a “bad” pick at No. 9. Oher or Smith at this point may be the “consensus” top player available, so Al may be right.

Conversion project DE/LB that may be looked at with the No. 9 pick include Arakpo, whom Cleveland may be looking at higher, but who would seem to be more of a 4–3 DE.

Maybin has been thought about, but has slid to a 20th or even lower ranking leaving Everett Brown the most likely if this type of player should be the choice. While he is going to be a good NFL player, I somehow do not see the need/value lining up to make him the choice.

There are as many as 10 more LB carrying 10th–50th draft spot rankings, and trading down, or leaving this to the second, third or later rounds is far more likely. If a “stretch” is being looked at Connor Barwin or Clay Matthews may have the highest upside potential.

Either is a big strech at No. 9.

As I (and most Packer watchers) have identified the DL as the biggest and most significant need for the team, and we presume Raji is gone, I want to look at the other DL candidates that may seem a reach but would be the “best value” option.

At the NT spot behind Raji there are four other serious contenders, currently considered first rounders or early second rounders but would be a stretch at No. 9. Peria Jerry, Evander (Ziggy) Hood, SenDerrik Marks, and Ron Brace.

Behind these four, there is a group of at least four (King, Maola, Scott, and Magee) that should be there for the third round.

At the five technique DE spot there are only two or three players with first-round rankings, Robert Ayers, Jarron Gilbert and Tyson Jackson, and little depth to the “project” level behind them. That fact makes these three more valuable than the inside guys.

There is a strong likelihood that at least one of these seven would slide to No. 41 in the second round but it is far from certain.

In my opinion, the most likely to be taken at No. 9 should the Packers not partake of the “trade down” option is Tyson Jackson out of LSU. Immensely powerful and at 6’5” 290, has the tools to step in and have the most immediate impact for the Packers in 2009.

If this is the pick to fill the need, Jackson is the choice.

With their needs and draft-position holdings, both Philadelphia and New England are trade partner potentials for the Packers. Thompson would love to get two picks late in the first or late first and early second.

New England picks at 23 and 35 are a near straight value trade for No. 9, and they could be looking at one of the top two cornerbacks to push them in the direction of a trade.

They have six picks in the top 100, so this trade would not surprise me. Philly, with picks 21 and 28, could be looking at WR Crabtree, and would likely jump fairly quickly if he is on the board.

Green Bay would likely have to balance those two picks by including their second pick of the third round to balance points value in addition to the No. 9 pick.

Either one of those trades likely enables the Packers to get three players from the list of Jackson, Ayers and Gilbert DE, Jerry, Hood, Marks and Brace DT, and LB Matthews, Cushing , Barwin, Sidbury and Stinton. Certainly two or three of these guys improves the defensive front seven.

One way or another a first round pick will be used on the defensive front seven, and if no trade is available expect both the first and second rounders to be used there. It is a position of need, and the draft picks are there to fill the need.

What happens with the picks in the first two rounds will dictate the two choices in the third and fourth rounder. If we assume two DL/LB are selected, the odds are quite good that the third and fourth round picks will be used on TE, OL and another front seven pick.

If the second pick from the third round is included in a trade that nets three front-seven picks, the choices are likely to OL and TE.

Tight ends this year include Pettigrew and Nelson whom will likely go before the position is addressed by the Packers. The group of TE that should go in the third and fourth rounds include Casey, Cook, Coffman, Ingram, and Beckum.

Position runs in the draft will likely determine which one we take with which pick. My feeling is that Cook is the best of these guys and would be looked at with No. 73 in the third round down to Beckum which would be the No. 105 pick in the fourth.

Beckum is moving up after his very impressive pro day, and a Wisconsin favorite would be good PR.

The next tier of OL is a big group, Loadholt, Meredith, Levitre, Green, Topou, Canfield, Lewis, Bell, and Lang all fall in that category. Some will surprise with moves up, some surely will be there. Eighty picks into a draft, a month ahead of the event is beyond my crystal ball, but this is where I expect the first OL to be drafted by the Packers.

The group of DL that fall into the “next tier” includes Miller, Favorite, Baker, Hill, Irvin, Knighton, Scott, Magee, Francis, Hill, and Bolden. Some of these guys may be there for the late picks, whom are taken on a flyer anyway, but one more depth player on the DL is likely in this group of picks in the third or fourth round.

While the selections listed for the three groups for third-and-fourth-round choices would all be likely to make the roster for 2009, none of them would likely have much impact.

Picks in the fifth, two in the sixth, and the seventh will simply be competition type picks. Perhaps a punter to compete, a RB with a special glint, or a player with extraordinary return or special teams potential.

For the first time in the Thompson era, there is enough talent on the roster that it is very unlikely any of these four picks even make the team. That is why I expect some of these picks will be seen as “throw ins” if we want to move up to get a specific player.

The two or three players that will affect the 2009 season will likely be taken in the first two rounds. After all, this team does not have many spots available for the draft choices to make an impact on.

A very nice position to be in with a month to the draft. Tweaking the draft puzzle, finding just the right couple of pieces to to complete the winning picture.

Is Viking Coach Childress The First Fired in 2009?

Dean Somerville — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 17:18:49 -0400

Overwhelming expectations for success in Minnesota will get Brad Childress fired.

Minnesota has 10 starters more than 30-years-old. They have another 13 players that will be 29 or 30 by the end of 2009.

They have to win now. They will not.

Why?

The last five off-seasons have brought very little help to the team.

Viking Fans want to point out Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen and overrate Bernard Berrian. The flash and mirrors of a few stars does not make a winner.

Other than those three, in the last five seasons, their influx of talent has been just about nothing.

The 2007 draft class that brought Peterson was not bad, but not great.

Second rounder, Rice, has become a reasonable, but unspectacular second or third best WR.

Third rounder, McCauley, contributes on special teams and may be a desperation starter for 2009.

Fourth rounder Robinson has a total of 38 tackles, and seven sacs more than two-years and is a rotation player on the DL.

Fifth rounder, Allison, has a total of 18 receptions in two seasons. One star and four marginal players added in 2007.

Last year, other than Allan for picks, the team added second rounder, Johnson, who had 31 tackles and one interception. He may develop into a legitimate star.

They only kept three other draft picks: sixth rounder, Sullivan, who is a very long way from replacing Birk, and Guillion and Booty who never played a down in 2008.

2008 added one star: Albeit 29-years-old now, and one starter and one maybe capable of starting OL.

Going to the three-years preceding that the draft brought in 2004, Uzdeke a backup DE, Dugan a backup FB and Thomas who shows on the roster, but not on the depth chart at LB.

The 2005 draft class has Johnson a career backup OG the roster, not shown on the depth chart.

2006 has Greenway, a very good starting LB; Griffin the starting CB who people are saying makes too many mistakes, but is the best they have; Cook the starting RT whom everyone wants an upgrade for; Jackson the starting QB whom, Viking fans are really frustrated with and Edwards, a free agent DE.

In the last five-years the draft has brought a true star at RB; starters, but certainly far short of all star quality players at LB, QB, OT, CB, WR, S and Nickel who will start at corner one day.

It has also landed three backup DE.

In total, the Minnesota management has managed to draft one superstar, seven starters, and six backup players, in addition to one star player for draft picks.

Fifteen players on an entire 53 man roster from the five most recent draft classes indicates they have a severe lack of young talent to replace the guys getting older or who may get hurt.

That indicates a roster ready to crumble.

They have one pick in each of the first three rounds a fifth and two-seventh rounders this year.

Six totals picks, three of them being wild long shots at best, has not much chance to prop up a whole team.

The team traded last year’s draft class to sign Allan.

Only two of the last five draft classes were reasonable, three are complete failures.

They have no “franchise” QB, an offensive line thinner than tissue paper with two aging stars, two who never quite became stars, and after four and six-years respectively, never will, and one rookie who lasted until the sixth round last year.

The only other OL on the roster are G, Johnson, a 2005 draft bust, and three undrafted rookie free agents that have yet to dress for a first NFL game: one, a C, weighs in at 240-pounds.

(Good luck Adrian Peterson).

The offense also boasts a third year starting QB who has shown only inconsistency and a receiving corps that is mid league at very best. Brad Childress will have to be a magician to make this offense into anything but poor.

The defense boasts a DL that was the best in the league.

Of the DT that started one is now 38 the other 30, both facing suspensions.

They did recently sign their FA backup of six-years and have a fifth rounder on the roster.

The DE spot has one superstar and three rotational guys one of those is a FA—hard to see them remaining dominant, especially during the suspension to their second best DL.

Their best LB is 30-years and coming off injury.

They do have a very good OLB on one side, but the other is manned by another more than 30-year-old who had a career year last year.

One solid FA backup was resigned, but there is little depth.

They have two young DB who, other than Peterson are two of the three best picks of the last five-years of drafting in their secondary. Other than that the future there looks bleak also.

With so little depth, aging stars in very key positions, no significant signings in free agency, their own free agents of significance gone or as yet unsigned and very little chance to fill many holes with their limited draft position, the Minnesota Vikings look to be a team on the brink of disaster.

From a win-loss perspective this team will be very hard pressed to duplicate last season’s nine wins, even with a relatively soft schedule.

With the hype surrounding this as a potential “elite” team, when the crash comes someone will pay. Management never accepts the fact that not enough talent is why some coaches lose.

Sorry Brad, you have become my candidate for “most likely to be the first coach fired in 2009.”

Packers, Bears, and Vikings Fans Crying for FA—Who Needs the Most?

Dean Somerville — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 10:03:36 -0400

While searching B/R articles on other team’s sites I took a bit of time to think about where the Packers are against the Bears and the Vikings (sorry Lions fans you do not qualify as a rival at this time).

All three sites are screaming for the GM to sign FA. All three are under the cap. Everyone has unhappy fans. I decided to do my evaluation of where the teams are in terms of current talent and projections by positional breakdowns.

On Offense:

Quarterback

Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers a young, top 25% of the league QB former first rounder on the rise, backed up by two top prospects.

Chicago has Kyle Orton. Young questionable arm. Reasonable decision making. Hard pressed to rank above the bottom 1/3 of league starters. A third stringer, and no true second on the roster.

Minnesota has Tarvaris Jackson. Very young, short athletic QB, prone to mistakes. Again hard pressed to rank other than in the bottom 1/3. Signed a potential competition to start in Rosenfels who may get there rank slightly higher, but not much.

Huge advantage Packers. Minnesota a distant second, Chicago third.

Running backs

Green Bay has Ryan Grant. Young, back to back solid seasons. Two young backups on the rise. Middle third of the league with upside potential.

Chicago has Matt Forte. Solid rookie season. Backups more of the blocking variety. Weak middle third to top of the bottom third. Seriously need depth.

Minnesota has Adrian Peterson. Young probably the best in the NFL. Signed backup own RFA. Seriously possible the No. 1 set of RB in the league.

Huge advantage Minnesota, Packers a distant second, Chicago significant third.

Recievers

Green Bay has Jennings young top 15 in the league and Donald Driver veteran in the top 25. Three solid young WR backups. TE has Lee and Finley too young as yet to be overly significant receivers, and very average blockers.

Chicago has Devin Hester who has great return skills but has yet to establish as an NFL reciever. He is backed up by Rasheid Davis, Brandon Lloyd and Marty Booker, aging veteran who scare no one. They have outstanding TE in Desmond Clarke and rising superstar Greg Olsen.

Minnesota has Bernard Berrian and Bobby Wade, one veteran one developing. Good not spectacular. They also have two young developing backups. Their TE are a very serviceable Shiancone receiver, and a veteran outstanding blocker in Kleinsasser.

Big advantage Green Bay, in the top 1/3 of the league. Minnesota at best middle 1/3 and Chicago very distant in the bottom 1/3 and it is a position of huge need.

Offensive line

Green Bay – In transition. Two veteran tackles in Tauscher and Clifton with College a very obvious replacement for one. Inside they have Wells a serviceable centre with Barbre, Moll, Spitz, Giacomini and Sitton all considered starting quality. This group has yet to be moulded into one starting group, but all the pieces are in place.

Chicago has a very solid starting five of Tait, Garza, Kreutz, Beekman, and St Clair. Only Kreutz is all pro class but the group is very good. Behind these are three totally untested less than two season players, they could use depth but have a plan for the future.

Minnesota has pro bowlers Hutchinson and McKinnie on the left side. They lost pro-bowl centre Birk in free agency. The right side of the line is not good, and they have no backups that belong in the NFL. Serious, serious team need.

Advantage Chicago, second Green Bay with the rebuild in the works, and Minnesota a very far behind third.

Overall offensively, Green Bay has a big advantage at the skill positions, given that the run game of Minnesota cannot offset the enormous advantage in the passing attack.

Minnesota could struggle to open any holes for Peterson as teams stack the defensive side against their two solid OL. Need to get QB issues settled, as well as the offensive line.

Green Bay offensive line is in transition, but looks to have the best talent looking to 2009.

Chicago is clearly a very distant third, as their running game is at best on par with Green Bay, mostly due to the best offensive line of the three. Their quarterback is a weakness but the greatest reason for a bleak outlook is they have no significant receivers, even if they did have a QB.

While the O line is good, it is not dominant enough to win games, and has little depth.

Overall, looking to 2009 and beyond a huge advantage to the Packers, who for the next two seasons do not need to look at more than replacing two starters with people already on the team.

Potentially three development players in the next two seasons.

Minnesota needs to replace three starters on the O line, seriously need a QB upgrade, and at least two improvements at the WR spots, and a backup for AP, estimate at least seven players, and could use nine.

Chicago needs a QB, at least three receivers, depth at RB, and three development OL. Minimum eight players and could use 10. Green Bay is six to eight players ahead of both Chicago and Minnesota to have and maintain a very good offense for the next two years.

On Defense:

Defensive Line

Green Bay has Jenkins and Pickett as legitimate starters. Jolly and Harrell may be able to play, and two totally untried backups.

Chicago has the outstanding Tommie Harris at tackle with three other very serviceable starters on the line. All three have a young backup with some playing time. The group is young, solid and deep if not spectacular.

Minnesota has Allan and and Edwards at at DE and the Williams at DT. Quite possibly the best DL in football. Allan and Edwards are both in their prime. The Williams are both near the end.

All four current roster backups are free agents. The Williams both face four game suspensions that did not go away, were only postponed. It is critical for Minnesota to get the FA DL signed, or this position of strength very quickly will become a gaping hole.

As surprising as this sounds, big advantage Chicago. Minnesota could regain top spot if the FA are resigned, or could slide as low as the Packers if they leave. Packers clearly third with big needs, the biggest on their roster..

Linebackers

Green Bay has Hawk and Barnett, fixtures inside, with Bishop a very serviceable backup for both. With the switch to 3 – 4 from 4 – 3, the OLB spots are in flux. Kampman, with the other two presumed converts Hunter and Thompson clearly fill the physical requirements as rushers, but we have yet to see how they convert into the new scheme.

Poppinga and Chillar are veterans but neither is tremendously impressive. Havner and Lansaneh are young, and both played well on special team, as did Bishop. While the numbers are here, it is very hard to even guess how they will perform, and how much of an upgrade they need.

For now, at best, somewhere in the middle of the league. This is clearly the most difficult assessment of any position on any team except, perhaps the Minnesota DL.

Minnesota has Greenway drafted 12 picks later than Hawk in the same draft and their performance difference is very negligible. Two undrafted rookies took starting spots from aging veterans this past season.

The strength of the D Line allowed them to make plays, but this is a group very much in transition. There is no depth of any type. They overperformed, but if the DL has any issues there is no evidence they would withstand a trial by fire.

Chicago has the aging but very effective Urlacher and underrated star Lance Briggs. Two raw rookies fought for the other starting spot, both can play, but neither will be Briggs class stars. The two backup LB are retreads taking up space, and need replaced.

For a division that has historically been so strong at LB it is now painfully pedestrian. Green Bay and Chicago have slight edges over Minnesota, in that Chicago has Briggs the best in the division, and Green Bay clearly has the best depth and balance.

Chicago and Minnesota clearly both need depth and replacements, Green Bay might need to upgrade for one true impact LB in the category of Briggs.

Defensive Backs

Green Bay has Collins the all pro safety, and aging but top flight corners Harris and Woodson. They also have Williams and Lee at CB who both played well at nickle and are the obvious replacements at corner.

Bigby, Rouse, and new FA Smith give the team very talented young players at the safety spots. With special teamers Blackmon and Bush, as well as youngsters Porter and Peprah, this is clearly a very talented deep secondary.

Keeping Williams happy contractually will be a big priority, but should not be a major issue, as Al Harris' paycheque is looking to be renamed to Willaims who is taking the spot on the field. Bigby’s leverage shrunk dramatically with the signing of Smith.

Chicago has the No. 30 ranked secondary in football. Tilleman at one corner is the only starting quality DB on a team that has three draft busts and other peoples rejects they signed as free agents.

They are too bad for words, with only two very young guys trying to win and hold starting jobs, the rest are just bad.

Minnesota has Antoine Winfeild, the aging small corner on one side and three other guys competing for the starting job on the other side none of them is remotely impressive, and only 1 is young enough there is hope for development.

The safeties are the very old Sharper and the recycled Williams. They get by but are far from special. Their backups fail to impress, as they projected replacing the starters a couple of seasons ago...ooops.

Overall the difference in secondaries is shocking. Green Bay is a league elite, Chicago is right at the league bottom, and Minnesota is clearly in the bottom third.

Overall defensively, Chicago has the best DL which kept them competitive, but it is not remarkable. It just does not require fixing, they have too may bigger problems. Minnesota has a DL that is / was at the top, but is in great peril of a very rapid and ungracious fall.

They seriously need to get the backup DL FA resigned or it becomes a problem. The DL is Green Bay’s major issue to fix.

All three teams have OK linebacking crews, but all need improvements. Green Bay needs one very top end LB, and the other two teams need at least two solid backups and one starter upgrade. Overall a minor edge to the Packers.

The secondaries is where the difference is. Green Bay seems very close to set, just needing to get their younger replacement guys resigned and into key roles. Minnesota needs three new starters and improvements at two depth spots. Chicago needs four new starters and two new backups.

Team needs for 2009 and beyond for the Packers are two DL starters and one or two depth DL, one upgrade at LB and one depth player for the secondary.

Minnesota needs to re-sign all four DL backups, two of whom will need to be starters in the next two seasons, so they also need two more backups. They also need three new LB all of the depth variety, but it would be good if they managed one starter. They need at least three starters and two backups in the secondary.

Chicago needs one potential backup on the DL, two backup LB with a replacement for Urlacher imminent. The bad news is they probably need seven quality DB, and that will take more than two seasons to fix.

Looking at where the three teams are in total requirements during this free agency and heading to the draft:

Green Bay needs two starting DL, one upgrade at LB, and three development players on offense and three more development players on D. They have nine draft choices this season, to fill the two critical and seven upgrade positions.

Chicago needs one QB, and three WR, one backup RB, and three development OL. They critically need three DB, plus two depth, and two development LB. They have 15 holes to fill. Six are critical needs. They have seven picks, so obviously will still have many gaping holes, unless they fill some in free agency.

Minnesota needs one QB, three OL starters, with three WR development or upgrades. They critically need two starters and two backups in the secondary, plus three backup development types for the LB.

Their DL needs are dependant on signing their four FA backup DL. They have a total of between 14 and 18 holes to fill. They to maintain their seven picks with seven critical needs and seven to 11 other needs, they too need free agents signed.

After this review, I come to the conclusion that both Minnesota and Chicago fans have a bunch to scream at their management regarding signing FA, Green Bay has needs, but Free Agency may not fill those needs, other than the DL depth.

Many of those backup roles can readily be found, which would make the upcoming season look better for each of the teams. I find it hard to believe that GB is not hot after the Minnesota DL guys, or that Minnesota is not hot after Tauscher.

The team that does the best job of filling the holes, most notably the “critical holes” in their starting rosters should be in the best spot to win the division. Green Bay has the fewest glaring holes, the biggest being their starting QB is by far the best.

I predict the Packers have less gaping holes and a better chance to plug the most holes that do exist. That will give them the best shot to win the division, not only in 2009 but for several seasons..

Packers Fans' Hopes in "Realistic" Free Agency

Dean Somerville — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 11:08:37 -0500

The silly week of Free Agency is over, and much of the crazy spending is finished. Now is the time for Ted Thompson to evaluate what has happened and get some value for the FA bucks. This is the time that he historically has gone shopping, kind of like looking for Boxing Day specials after the rich kids grabbed the flashy toys for Christmas.

Of the remaining Free Agents in the unrestricted category, only four remain that are true fits for the Packers in terms of talent, age, and financially being able to sign responsibly. DE Igor Olshansky from San Diego becomes an instant starter. He is an incredibly hard worker and a fit in terms of temperament, all things the Packers seem to value.

As of today I would think he is the number one priority on the list, and with Colin Cole leaving, I expect a deal worth about $4-5 million per year over three-plus years to get done. This was just cap shuffle from Cole and should have little effect on the rest of free agency money for the Pack.

There are 12 others in four groups of three who the Packers should be looking at.

The first of those groups is the three remaining NTs. I call these the "Price is Right" group. Tank Johnson, formerly of Dallas, is incredibly talented and would have much higher value if not for college-era personal issues. Surviving in the mess that is Dallas without any character issues bodes well for his having matured nicely. He's the first choice of this group of three.

C.J. Mosley of the Jets is maybe the least talented of this group of three, but incredibly steady against the run, is a tireless worker, and has a knack for knocking down passes.

The third is Shaun Cody from Detroit. He had huge upside when he came out of USC—strong against the run, with bursts of pass rushing talent. Cody has not taken to losing in Detroit and has taken plays off. The greatest risk and reward of the three.

One of these guys would be great to see in Green Bay with a deal near the Ryan Pickett/Cullen Jenkins level of $3 to 3.5 million per year. All are solid rotational guys. None are jump off the page instant answers, but we really need one of them...if "The Price is Right."

The second group of three is in the “greatest cost and impact” category. I'll call them the "Fan Dream" group. This includes three RFAs from other teams. All would be $5-plus million per year, plus a draft choice submission, but would be instant starters and improve the D-line dramatically.

This group includes DE Stephen Bowen of Dallas. Probably more talented then Chris Canty, and I expect a million-plus a year cheaper. This would be a fixture, would damage Dallas a lot, and would fit very nicely beside Johnson (above) should they sign both. $6 million and a second rounder would be worth it, but may be too high for team philosophy (I love this as Dallas would have only one of their top five DLs return).

The next is Gabe Watson from Arizona. He is a minutes-eating, run-stuffing NT. Probably not quite the impact or cost of Bowen, but an instant impact that would change draft strategy and make our LBs better, very likely in the $5 million per year range.

The third in this group is DT Fred Evans from Minnesota. He is their depth and replacement for the Williamses, would be an instant starter and improvement on anyone here except Jenkins, and most likely make the rotation at NT with Pickett, although if one in the first group is signed, he could move to DE. I like this almost as much for the damage it does a division rival.

These three are very high cost/high impact players and will likely only come into play should Olshansky or one of the first group not be able to be signed.

The third group contains almost givens. Should at least two of the above groups not happen, a low cost, low impact, rotational time-sharing player will be signed. I suggest the most likely three are Jimmy Kennedy from Minnesota, Mike Wright from NE, or Corey Mace from Buffalo.

This is the most likely and cheapest scenario, but little improvement on what is here, other than adding depth and maturity if drafting is the only option for first line players.

The fourth option is by far the most interesting, would raise the most questions, and require the biggest sacrifice for reward. This involves a very viable trade option and would not happen if the above scenarios happen. The NY Giants have gone crazy in FA and are now in Cap jail. They have 13 defensive linemen, including their two new FAs. They have DLs with excess of 150 games STARTED in the last two seasons.

Among those three are DTs Barry Cofield, Jeremy Clark, and Jay Alford. All are prototypical-sized 3-4 DLs, very young with significant playing time, and all have big upside. (I really do not understand Giants management's thinking in FA, with this group on the roster, and would be screaming if I were in that fanbase.)

Giants are in huge need of a WR. Greg Jennings would bring two of those guys and their first round pick. James Jones probably brings one and a second or third rounder. One way or another, the Giants will need to move one of these three young DLs, and Thompson should try to find the trade that gets it done to our benefit.

The final option for Turner is not to acquire any of Olshansky, group one, two, or four players above, and invest at least three of the four picks in the first three rounds of the draft to address the team’s biggest need. That option certainly curbs the “best available player” draft philosophy and is even further out of character than spending money in free agency.

One way or another, I feel strongly at least two and hopefully three of the 13 listed above end up in Green Bay this summer. (Three of the 13 are referenced in Zach Kruse's article of FAs already planning visits to Green Bay.)

Keeping the Packers Green and Gold with Cash: Avoiding Silly Free Agency

Dean Somerville — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 11:16:54 -0500

The NFL silly season, known as free agency is upon us. I have read several comments from Packer fans decrying the need for super and big splash free agent signings this year.

I think signing any big name free agents by the Packers this offseason would be really silly, and I do not believe Thompson will make that mistake.

The Packers current salary commitments for the top 51 players, with the FA still to think about and the draft upcoming sits at about $94 million of the $127M league cap, and short of minimum of $109M.

That number includes just short of $2 million to guys like KGB and Hodge who did not live up to contracts given and were released. Fifty-five players will eventually count to this cap number.

With the Packers current draft position and the nine picks they have means they need to allocate approximately $6 million to signing their draft choices, whomever they are. $100 million for those keeping track.

One ERFA, Tramon Williams is about a must to get resigned, he looks to be a sure thing at corner, and successful teams in this league need top corners. A prudent contract might see him tied up for four years for $10 million, front end loaded—$3.5M cap hit.

If not, the ERFA contract he must be offered is about one, throwing him into the group of four listed later as “next year problem”.

Atari Bigby has been offered a second round qualifying offer at $1.4 million, and could be tied up longer term at about $10 mil over four years very likely. RFA Kuhn should sign for two or three years at $1M per year max.

None of the other RFA would be worth more than $750K per year, so would not effect the 55-man numbers. (With Williams, Bigby and Kuhn we are now at $54M), with the drat picks we will be over the 55 player minimum, but only the highest paid 55 are what count.

Now at $107M, and we begin deducting the league minimum from salaries paid to the “top 55”.

The UFAs—Montgomery is a marginal fit for the new system, but should be offered about a $1.5M per year two-or-three-year deal, to give leverage for a draft pick for him signing elsewhere.

The other two, Tauscher and Cole are the questions.

Is Tauscher worth more than $2M per season? He will no doubt be offered at least that much elsewhere. He has been a very loyal and stout performer and may give GB a home team discount, but I cannot see an offer of more than two years, $5 mil tops, $2.5 cap hit.

Cole is decidedly the biggest question. Relatively young, reasonably productive, he will likely be offered at least $10 mil over three years, and he will be looking for five seasons elsewhere, is he worth it. Say yes, and for a first year hit $4 m.

In that scenario, the Pack has all of their own FA and draft choices signed, are at +- 114, with room to address the 2010 offseason that is lurking. Do we have any guys that may / should reduce our cap? Certainly. It is very hard going into this season to justify $5M plus for Harris.

Woodson and Clifton are at 8 and 6.5, both clearly playing on contracts earned by previous reputation, and will certainly not get that much again. Woodson has 4 years left, Clifton expires next season, so we probably do not want to cut them just for salary.

The 2009 - 2010 offseason now poses a series of questions, that if we spend every dollar this year grow much larger next.

Clifton as mentioned has a cap number above $8, Kampman at $6 so he is playing for his career with the position switch, Pickett at 3.5 needs to be the guy at NT. Chillar at two is in jeopardy.

The team’s real signing issues are, WR Jennings, S Collins, OL College and Spitz have a total package of less than 3.5. Those four look to be key ingredients in the future of the franchise, and need resigned and raises are necessary.

IMO, before we even break camp, even before the $1.3M in roster bonus is paid, Harris needs to be released. The $5 M he is to make this year is far better spent getting two of the five key players listed above signed to long term contracts.

Without Harris Thompson has $20 mil for these five guys, a lot more than fair market value if he gets them resigned before they have monster seasons.

My guess is at least four of the five can be signed for in the range of $12 million against the cap. The biggest reason I am confident they can be signed, is this is the 2006 draft class, so they will have played in the league four years after this coming season.

Normally, next year would be UFA time for these guys.

With the collective bargaining agreement expiring, the “uncapped year” is a bit scary, but has this hidden gem for the Packers, players now need to have six league years to become Unrestricted Free agents.

Unless there is a new agreement, all five of those guys will be restricted for two more seasons, so they will be staying.

The talent of Thompson in managing our cap room is now very apparent, there is no need to fear any of our own fan favorites need to be let go for lack of money. Just perform and terrible Ted rewards.

The great news for Packer fans, is that since Thompson took over, we have not lost any critical FA from our own roster, and it very much looks like that successful trend will continue.

The “cap space” of $30 million that people are throwing around includes all of this year’s draft class budget, all of our own free agents, and the money that would be required to sign next year’s potential free agents.

Should any of Tauscher, Cole or Montgomery not be resigned, there is money available for free agent shopping simply to replace them, in my estimates $8-12 million.

Even signing them all, he realistically has somewhere between $4–8 million should the staff be looking at this years free agents, so there could be one or two depth position signings. And that would take the cushion from signing any replacements during the season should injuries occur.

For fans looking at wish lists, that is the real number. If people are really gung ho to have Thompson sign some free agents whose own clubs indicate they think their value is not what they want in salary, think about this, we can sign more by waving goodbye to Harris now and any of Clifton, Woodson, Driver or Kampman before the 2009 season.

Not sure about a lot of fans, but I think cutting any of those four guys to sign a free agent from somewhere else is silly.

For those who cry for huge FA signings, and complain about Thompson being tight, this is the reality of the finances. I for one do not want to see a free agent splash and take the cash he should use rewarding guys who have earned it here.

Let Oakland, Washington and Dallas make the big splashes, I think our team is a lot more ready to take a run this year than any of those teams.

Thanks to the board they hired a frugal manager who does not go crazy in the silly season. Funny how many of those Free Agents bring baggage, and this is a team without much baggage. I like it that way and hope Thompson avoids the silly season.

If anyone wants to check out the current salary cap commitments, search: NFL Ssalary Cap Numbers and select the Packers.

2009: Results Time for Packers GM Ted Thompson

Dean Somerville — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 05:54:15 -0500

In order to evaluate the success or failure thus far for Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, we must look at the team's record, the roster Thompson inherited, changes Thompson has made to the roster and make a projection for the future.

Thompson inherited the '04 Packers who had gone 10–6, including 5–1 in the division, outscoring their opponents 424 – 380 (remarkably similar to the scoring differential that left them 6 – 10 in 2008).

As of that offseason, the contributors on the team were mostly older players.

Only five of the 12 players from the 2000 draft class that were contributing, only two of six picks from the '01 class were contributing, and only three of six picks from the '02 class were contributing. Only two players from the '03 and '04 draft classes, Nick Barnett and Scott Wells, were playing significant roles.

The net result: an average team age that was the fourth oldest in NFL.

In that count, Javon Walker, Najeh Davenport, Craig Nall from the '02 class, and Robert Ferguson, Bhawoh Jue and David Martin from the '01 class are included as “successful” picks. Thus, the reality was that the team he inherited had only six starters from the previous five draft classes, with one, Walker, about to hold out, get injured, and eventually be traded.

At that point the team had six starters and seven backups who had been acquired by draft or trade with less than five seasons in the NFL. This was a recipe for an aging, reeling football team, one that went 4-12 Thompson's first season.

It was little wonder the disaster happened after that old team was run out of the park by Mike Vick and the Falcons, and that the coming implosion was inevitable. It is rather remarkable the turnaround was anywhere near as quick as it has been.

The 2005 draft class—Thompson's first—brought us Aaron Rodgers, Nick Collins, Brady Poppinga, and Michael Montgomery. The other picks from rounds four through seven included two spot players and three complete misses. These kids needed a bit of time and help.

The 2006 draft class brought in A.J. Hawk, Will Blackmon, Jason Spitz, Daryn College, Tony Moll, Cullen Jenkins, Greg Jennings, and Johnny Jolly. It also brought Abdul Hodge as a backup for a couple years, with four picks in rounds four through seven that did not stick.

This was the offseason where Thompson brought in Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett as free agents as well.

The 2007 draft was a great draft, although it is remembered negatively because first-round pick Justin Harrell has yet to prove himself.

This class featured Brandon Jackson, James Jones, Aaron Rouse, Korey Hall, Desmond Bishop, Mason Crosby, and DeShawn Wynn. Amazingly, 10-12 players picked are significant roster players, even if most are only the “depth” that gives us hope. Only a fifth and a seventh rounder failed to stick.

And there is a potential that there will be more serviceable starters from this class than on the entire roster Thompson inherited. He also arranged the trade for Ryan Grant during this offseason.

While it is way to early to really evaluate the 2008 class, it did feature Jordy Nelson, Patrick Lee, Jermichael Finley, Brian Brohn, Matt Flynn, Josh Sitton, and Breno Giacomi, —all who made the roster—and another player, Brett Swain, who is on the practice squad. This offseason also brought the FA signing of Brandon Chillar.

There are three roster spots filled by players drafted and released by other teams during that four-year period; Jarrett Bush, Charlie Peprah and John Kuhn, none truly huge losses to the other teams, or true gold for us.

The undrafted free agents signed in that period include Tramon Williams and Donald Lee, players of significant value who were acquired for nothing.

Tell me I am missing something, but Thompson acquiring nine starters and 19 significant backups, in his first three drafts is pretty remarkable drafting, especially compared to the previous administration.

Thompson inherited a team with Walker, the second best player on the team, and an entire host of other players looking at free agency (both starting G, RB, S, K,CB.... I may be missing some but at least seven of 22 starters plus K).

He had no cash room to sign anyone and no stockpile of draft picks. He had a starting QB significantly past his prime with no replacement in sight.

Now, he has a team with a rising star at QB, youth and depth nearly everywhere on the roster, one of the youngest teams in the NFL, money to spend, and extra draft picks.

Please explain to me how come Thompson is being questioned by the fans. Somehow, I only see one draft pick that looks really bad on a resume of nearly five years of success that should be beyond question.

With the roster he has built, and make no mistake, this is a roster he has built, the evaluation of Ted can start after next season, his fifth.

What Can Packers Fans Really Expect from Free Agency in 2009?

Dean Somerville — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 01:04:32 -0500

There are lots of sexy free agents out there this year, especially with the Pack converting to a 3-4 defensive alignment. What can Packers fans really expect from this season's free agency? Let's look at Ted Thompson's actions over the last three seasons for clues.

2006

Signed: Bauman QB, Wrobel QB and Moore OG, none still with the team.

Lost in FA: Walker WR, Longwell P, Fisher RB, Steele TE, Lenon LB, Diggs LB, Roman S all significant starters elsewhere, and Wallace, Carthon, Lee, Chatman, Jones, Reugamer, Flanagan and Thomas all still on rosters, or new FA. 2 compensation draft picks, and a huge reduction is base salaries.

2007

Signed: J Kuhn FB, and Malone DL still contributors to the team, and F Walker who only played one season here. Also Russel WR, Adkisson TE, Harris TE, Lonie P, Goodwell LB, Randall LB none of whom had any impact on the team.

Lost in FA: Green RB, Fergusson WR, Martin TE, Rayner K all significant contributors elsewhere, Berry OL, Allen, Manuel on other rosters, little impact. 2 comp draft picks.

2008

Signed: B Chillar LB part time starter

Lost in FA: Ryan P, Franks TE, Walker DB, Robinson WR and T Smith WR all on other rosters none of much impact.

2009

ERFA: Williams CB will likely sign long term, and Powdrell will likely sign short term 2 yr.

RFA: Bigby S Kuhn FB likely resign long term, Humphrey TE, Martin WR, Bodiford, Bush DB, Palmer OL likely sign minor short term contracts, Hunter DL is not likely a fit for the 3 - 4 and not offered significant contract

UFA: Tauscher is injured, and will likely resign on a short term deal, Cole DT likely gets an offer over perceived worth here and goes, Poppinga LB likely resigns modest contract, and Montgomery De is likely not a fit for a 3 - 4 and signs elsewhere.

All in, this team loses very little in FA, with only T Williams a big loss if only a one-year deal is made. There is not very much increased money spent on signings from within, with several high dollar contracts (Harris, Woodson and Clifton) all expiring next season, and none of the existing FA getting much for increases except Williams.

There is money available, but this roster has very few spots without existing depth. There may be some DL or OL of non-spectacular note that Thompson sees as depth upgrades, but looking at history, plus the fact that he has eight draft choices, and the need to conserve the core of young talent with contracts next offseason, I do not see much coming in free agency.

A line upgrade in the ilk of the LB upgrade with Chillar is likely the most Packer fans should hope for. That is the good business sense. Pretty boring, but that's how I see FA this season.