Bleacher Report - Articles by Michael Venning

By the Numbers: Who Will Win the NCAA Tournament?

Michael Venning — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 02:37:36 -0400

Numbers never lie. I guess we’ll see:

Let’s start simple. Who has won the most titles? Well, that one should be easy. Most average college basketball fans will know that UCLA has the most titles with 11.

However, who is next on that illustrious list? That would be Kentucky with seven, then Indiana with five. Those two teams blew their chances with an inconsistent season for the former and a “misremembering” coach for the latter. (Sorry, Coach Sampson – you were loved at Oklahoma, but it’s time to own up and stop “not recollecting” certain things…).

North Carolina comes into the picture at number four. They have cut down the nets four times. Kansas has been crowned champion twice, and Memphis has never ended a tournament run with a victory. However, they did get close in 1973, when they lost to UCLA by a mere 21 points in the Championship game.

Of the four remaining teams, UCLA has the most tournament wins:

UCLA, 94 wins
North Carolina, 92
Kansas, 76
Memphis, 25

Therefore, UCLA will be the champion. Hmm…picking UCLA to win based on those facts does seem like a sort of weak argument. Let’s go deeper.

There are often factors pulled out from box scores that tell the story of a title game or a Final Four game. Based on some trend analysis, the following four factors have repeatedly come up as key elements for the winning team: Scoring, rebounding, free throw percentage and turnovers. These are 2007-08 regular season statistics:

Of the four remaining teams, North Carolina has the best scoring average:

UNC, 88.7 ppg
KU, 81.5 (-8.8%)
Memphis, 79.7 (-9.3%)
UCLA, 74.1 (-19.7%)

Rebounding should have something to do with determining a winner don’t you think? Again, North Carolina has quite an edge:

UNC, 44.2 rpg
Memphis, 40.8 (-8.3%)
KU, 38.9 (-13.6%)
UCLA, 36.7 (-20.4)

The ever important free throw percentage has decided many titles over the years. Once again, North Carolina leads the way:

UNC, 75.4 FT%
UCLA, 73.1 (-3.1%)
KU, 69.6 (-8.3%)
Memphis, 60.7 (-24.2%)

Turnovers in a championship game haven’t meant much in recent years. Three of the last four champs have actually lost the turnover battle in the title game. Maybe this year will be different? That’s yet to be seen. However, common sense would tell us that turnovers do make a difference. In that case, Memphis has the honor here:

Memphis, 12.2 turnovers per game
UCLA, 12.4 (-1.6%)
KU, 12.9 (-5.4%)
UNC, 14.7 (-17.0%)

To round out this analysis, it would be a good idea to look at not only the regular season statistics, but also some more recent action. How about the tournament itself? Let’s go deeper:

Scoring:

UNC, 93.0 ppg
Memphis, 85.2 (-9.2%)
KU, 72.8 (-27.7%)
UCLA, 71.2 (-30.6%)

Rebounds:

Memphis, 44.8 rpg
UCLA, 44.5 (-0.7%)
UNC, 44.2 (-1.4%)
KU, 40.0 (-12.0%)

Free throws:

UNC, 76.8 FT%
UCLA, 72.0 (-6.67%)
Memphis, 67.4 (-13.9%)
KU, 63.2 (-21.5%)

Turnovers:

Memphis, 8.2 turnovers per game
UNC, 10.8 (-24.1%)
KU, 13.2 (-37.9%)
UCLA, 14.8 (-44.6%)

When comparing their regular season stats to their tournament stats, there is an alarming trend. Of the four areas outlined here—Scoring, Rebounding, Free Throw Percentage, and Turnovers per Game, UNC and Memphis have either improved or stayed the same in every category.

UCLA and KU have gotten WORSE in three of the four categories. The only area that UCLA and KU have improved in is rebounding, which is hardly a shock considering these two schools will almost always recruit better and taller athletes compared to their early tournament opponents (Portland State, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, UNLV).

Putting a weight factor into these four areas for the regular season and for the tournament clears things up a little. Consider placing a value of four points for being the highest rated team in a given category on down to three, two, and one point:

Regular Season tally:

UNC, 13 points
Memphis, 10
KU, 9
UCLA, 8

NCAA Tournament tally:

UNC, 13 points
Memphis, 13
UCLA, 8
KU, 6

Finally, let’s summarize.

UNC was clearly the best statistical team in the regular season and have hardly let up during the first four games of the tournament. Memphis also did very well during the regular season, but have clearly stepped up in their four games played.

Remember, this is only comparing these four teams. Obviously, UCLA and KU have had remarkable seasons and been very successful in getting to the Final Four.

However, compared to UNC and Memphis, they simply don’t make the cut. Not from the regular season perspective, nor from the tournament itself.

There are several more points to support UNC and Memphis meeting in the title game. In the season’s final RPI rankings, these two teams are ahead of UCLA and KU. In the final AP Poll, UNC and Memphis were noticeably ahead of UCLA and KU in both first place votes and total points.

UNC and Memphis had two and one loss respectively. The other two schools had three a piece. Against top 50 RPI schools, UNC and Memphis had one loss each, while UCLA and KU had two each.

Somehow, the being that is The Bracket, pits UNC against KU and Memphis against UCLA. This wonderfully worked out in favor of The Numbers.

UNC should blast past KU (90 – 75), while Memphis should win against UCLA in a tough battle decided by just a few points (79 – 73). UNC would then win the title against Memphis (88 – 78).

The Numbers have spoken. Now let’s play the games…

* SOURCES: ESPN, CBS Sportsline, Yahoo! Sports

Not Just Any Cinderella: The Boilermakers Will Make it Past Midnight

Michael Venning — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 17:14:53 -0400

The Purdue Boilermakers, led by future NBA stars, imaginary Player #1 and pretend Player #2, will not only make the Sweet 16, but even creep into the Elite Eight.

Look at these mind-blowing stats: Their top seven players are "led" by an experience laden Junior, Nemanja Calasan, a native of Bosnia-Herzegovina. He is averaging an astonishing 6.5 ppg in his 18.3 mpg in his only season in Division I basketball. Their only senior, Tarrance Crump, is averaging 4 points in 16 minutes. Their high scorer is E'Twaun Moore, a freshman, who lights it up for 12.7 ppg. Their best rebounder is Robbie Hummel, who hits the glass for 6.1 rpg. And their best assist man is Chris Kramer, who dishes out 2.9 apg.

This is an entire team full of roll players! No true superstar. The Boilermakers are all teammates, in the true sense of the word. Hummel, a finalist for the Oscar Robertson Trophy (National Player of the Year), is a very good all-around player (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.6 apg, 50%FG, and 86%FT), but nothing compared to the caliber of players he will see in the coming days or possible weeks.

Yet despite their lack of star power, they beat Wisconsin twice. That's right, the Midwest Region's No. 3 seed was beaten twice by this team. They know how to win against tough opponents in big games. They keep it low scoring, playing solid defense, and limiting their own turnovers, basically doing whatever it takes to end up on the right side of victory.

Free throws win NCAA tournament games. Three of their players average better than 83% from the line, while four of their high-minute men average 71% or better. At that crucial point in the game, up or down by only a basket, Coach Matt Painter knows who to put in to hit the big free throw.

During an 11-game winning streak, spanning January and the beginning of February, eight games were decided by eight points or less. FREE THROWS win the tight games and most NCAA Tournament games are tight. So look for Purdue to be sinking their freebees.

Obviously, coaching is huge in the tournament. Well, Purdue has one of the four finalists for the Naismith Award, the honor given to the best coach of the year. He has brought together this team of ragtag misfits, never allowing them to believe that they are just average simply because they lack the media sensationalism of the other Top 20 schools in the nation.

Yes, Purdue is a Top 20 school. Of course, that's according to the experts in the AP Poll. Purdue finished their season as the twentieth ranked team in the nation after reaching a peak of No. 17 earlier in the season.

I think the biggest advantage, though, is the fact they play in the solid Big Ten. It's not a stellar year for the conference, but at one point they did have four ranked teams, only losing Indiana out of the polls recently following Coach Sampson's most recent scandal.

However, Purdue did only finish one game behind Wisconsin, the eventual Big Ten Tournament champions. Any year you can finish with a 15-3 record in the Big Ten is a good year. And this is a good team. Not great, but good enough to beat the competition and make a run at Cinderella.

Baylor in the first round is a wonderful match up for Purdue. Baylor was the last team into the bracket madness, and they were very fortunate to be that last team. Maybe the Bears were given the nod due to the feel-good story behind the resurgence of this once disgraced basketball program. Regardless of how good they feel, they are still an 11th seeded Baylor team with little to offer in the way of competition for the Boilermakers.

Baylor has a wealth of experience, yes. But that experience is in losing. Their many upper classman have done a great job bringing the Bears back into the tournament for the first time since 1988, but their previous several years have been spent near the bottom of the Big 12, so don't expect too much of a challenge from the Bears.

The second round likely pits Purdue against Xavier (unless Georgia continues their magic run with another win), who brings a 14-2 conference record from the Atlantic 10. Xavier hasn't done much to impress, other than be another solid-type team.

Their competition in the Atlantic 10 hasn't readied them for the battles of the NCAA Tournament. Some of their more recent wins have come against Dayton, Richmond, Duquesne, St. Louis, and La Salle. That's not exactly the same as Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, and Michigan State.

Now, getting to the Sweet 16 would be a wonderful accomplishment for Coach Painter and his roster of roll players, but here comes the kicker: They will continue into the Elite Eight. Whether it is Duke, West Virginia, Arizona, or cough, cough, um...Belmont, Purdue matches up well. Obviously, Duke is the logical choice to come out of the Washington, D.C. sub-region, so what makes Purdue good enough to beat Duke?

Duke is a three point shooting team. They are an emotional team. They are...Duke. It's not very often that a streaky team will continue into the Elite Eight. J.J. Redick has long since left to be an NBA benchwarmer, so Duke doesn't have the freaky 60% three point shooting that they are accustomed to.

In fact, Purdue has three players shooting better than 43% from the three point line, while Duke only has one player shooting 43%. And, remember those free throws? Duke has two players shooting 84% or better, while Purdue has three in that category.

The Blue Devils have also shown a knack for getting into foul trouble this season. Their starting forwards, Kyle Singler and Lance Thomas, both average better than three fouls a game. That bodes well for Hummel, who should be able to stretch his 29 minutes per game, while his opponents sit on the bench complaining about the refs.

I must point out, though, that Duke picked up a coach several years ago that is pretty good this time year, a Mike Krzyzewski, that I'm sure you've heard of. That could also be a determining factor, but last time a coach was on the floor having that much of an impact, his red Indiana vest was kicked out of the game (sorry, Coach Knight).

So although nothing is guaranteed in this wonderful time of the year we like to call March Madness, the Purdue Boilermakers certainly look like they have what it takes to play towards the end of the month. They have finalists for both the Player of the Year and the Coach of the Year, as well as the greatest hodgepodge of teammates assembled this side of the Detroit Pistons, so it certainly looks like this tournament will be a success for the Boilermakers of Purdue.

"Anonymous" for President

Michael Venning — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 04:50:36 -0400

"Anonymous" is always there. "Anonymous" is always right. "Anonymous" is somehow one man that is made up of hundreds, if not thousands of minds.

So, in my mind, "Anonymous" would make a very good President. I'm collecting funds for the next primary. Please send cash only.

Isn't that the type of President we need?

They are never wrong. They always make the right decisions. They always have something to say.

Even if it's to our younger brothers and sisters, and it involves profanity and negative discourse and illogical arguments? Well...maybe I was wrong about "Anonymous".

You see, I am tired of "Anonymous" writing on everyone's articles with awful comments.

We have 16-year-old boys and girls writing from their hearts, only to be bashed by an older, angrier version of supposed lovers of the game. Their arguments are rarely thought out well enough to actually understand; they simply use offensive language and then run away into the shadows. Only to show up again after the aforementioned 16-year-old has posted a rebuttal to the best of their ability, and the shadow-lurker, "Anonymous", rips them again.

The spirit of Bleacher Report is to be a collaborative effort to talk about the sports we love to love and the teams we love to hate. I hope the powers that be can somehow have a say so over these ridiculous "Anonymousers".

These young writers and, heck, every one of us for that matter, can all improve. Let's help each other.

Edit with honor! Comment with tact!

C'mon "Anonymous", get a real name, get a real profile, and let the world hear your thoughts.

Oklahoma City: The Hornets Came, But They'll Be Back...

Michael Venning — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 18:37:40 -0400

Pick a city. Any city. How about any city with a regional population of around a million people? Try, say...Oklahoma City. Then try building an arena in the downtown area, close to the restaurants, the canal, the river, the freeway, and the metro transit system. How about an arena as large as the Los Angeles Lakers' Staples Center? Yes, that's right the Ford Center in downtown Oklahoma City can seat 20,000. Just like the Staples Center.

Did he say, "Just like the Staples Center"? Well, actually he did. You see, I was there on opening night for the Oklahoma City Hornets. They played the Sacramento Kings and had so much emotion and excitement going in that arena that they didn't even score for the first three minutes of the game. And the crowd thanked them by...sitting down! Yes, the crowd, all 19,163 fans (a sellout at the time in that particular configuration) were standing from the National Anthem to the player introductions to the tip-off through the next three minutes.

They ended up blowing the Sacramento Kings out by 26 points. And the crowd wouldn't shut up about it!

Oklahoma City fans didn't know any better. They're a college type of town. They get excited for their teams. I know, it's a shocker, but they were actually into the game. They cheered loudly for the Hornets and they booed when the other team did something well or the referees didn't.

I've been to other professional sporting events around the country and I have never seen anything like it. Noise from start to finish. Excitement throughout the game. "But that was just Opening Night", you might say. Well, how about two weeks later when I went to another game. Yes, well it was another sellout, another win, and another sore voice for all involved. You see, when everyone around you is yelling for your team, you're a lot more likely to do it yourself. Oklahoma City was that type of host for the Hornets. Two years of mostly sellouts. Two years of true FANatics!

Then they left and went back to New Orleans. Honestly, at the time I thought that was where they belonged; it was the right thing to do. However, the city of New Orleans has proven me wrong. One of the best records in the NBA. One of the best players in the league (Chris Paul for MVP, anyone?). High scoring games and emotional players. Yet, an average of 13,925 fans are showing up for this incredible team. Unfortunately, that's 13,925 documented fans. On the television, it sure looks like a lot less than that are actually showing up. When most of the lower level is half full, it's not a good sign.

I'm not blaming New Orleans for this; I'm just stating a fact. It's likely that the locals have more to worry about and definitely a lot more to pay for.

I was in New Orleans about two weeks after Hurricane Katrina as part of the relief effort. It was and still is, in most respects, a mess. It's not the local residents' fault that the Hornets are not being supported by fans or local business sponsorships. It's just a fact. Meanwhile, one of the best teams in the league is going largely unwatched by their own fans.

Am I the bad guy to say that the Hornets should be somewhere else? Or, am I the realist? The people of that city don't have the fiscal capacity to support an NBA franchise and an NFL franchise. Eight home games for the Saints is a lot easier to fill than 41 home games for the Hornets, regardless of the stadium versus arena capacities argument.

New Orleans simply can't do it. They're proving it every night when a good team like the San Antonio Spurs come to town and the announced crowd is five percent under capacity. That’s a paltry 16,319. Compare that to an enthusiastic crowd of 20,000 in Oklahoma City.

Yes, I was there when they first came to OKC. Yes, I got a stinkin' t-shirt. And yes, I'll be there when the Hornets move back to the Ford Center to a rockin' sellout crowd that refuses to sit down until the first Hornet basket is scored.