Bleacher Report - Articles by LechlerFan

Darrius Heyward-Bey and Mike Mitchell: Best Friends Forever

LechlerFan — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:55:09 -0400

When the Oakland Raiders made their first two selections of the 2009 NFL draft, the collective jaw of the NFL world dropped.

Darrius Heyward-Bey was considered a major stretch at No. 7 overall, but considering his speed, the selection shouldn't have come as too much of a shock.

Mike Mitchell, on the other hand, was a name the vast majority of people had never heard before he was selected in the second round.

Despite Heyward-Bey's claim that he isn't worried about what the critics say, the Raider Nation is eager for him to prove them wrong.

Mitchell has already said he can't wait to show his detractors that he was worthy of the 47th overall pick. He was a big hitter in college, and it is safe to assume he will do a large part of his arguing by throwing his body at opposing players.

Heyward-Bey needs only to spread opposing defenses to prove his worth, creating opportunities for his teammates. Well, that and maybe catch a few balls here and there.

Mitchell needs to be a presence in the secondary, striking fear in opposing receivers.

So what's the connection?

Going over the Raiders schedule this season, Mitchell will have a chance to go against eight of the top 13 wide receivers drafted in 2009. He will face the consensus No. 1 and No. 2 receivers: Michael Crabtree in week two of the preseason and Jeremy Maclin in week six of the regular season.

If he were to, say, take off both their heads with crushing hits, the Heyward-Bey pick would look like a no-brainer.

Not that I would wish harm to any person, but what if Mitchell sends all eight of those rookie wideouts into the obscurity of once-promising players constantly plagued by the one injury that derailed their careers? Wouldn't that be great!?!? I mean, a shame?!?!

Who am I kidding? I hope Mitchell lays every one of them out. I can't wait to see them timidly crossing the middle, the number 34 burned in the back of their brains.

And at the end of the season, when the bodies are piled up in the secondary, Darrius Heyward-Bey can shake the hand of the man who made him one of the only rookie receivers left standing, and he and Mike Mitchell will be best friends forever.

Raider Fans: Who Is the Lesser of the Three AFC West Evils?

LechlerFan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 23:21:19 -0400

In the past two NFL seasons, when it reached the point when the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention, the San Diego Chargers were hanging by a thread, and the Denver Broncos looked to have the AFC West all but locked up, I secretly became a Chargers fan.

Not in any game in which they played the Raiders, mind you, but in just about every other remaining game on their schedule. I would grind my teeth when their offense was in the red zone, I was panic-stricken when they were on defense with a small lead in the fourth quarter, and I was overcome with joy when they won.

And it hurt. It hurt every time I caught myself rooting for an AFC West rival. But the fact is, somebody's got to win the division, and if it's not going to be the Raiders, I'd prefer it be the Chargers.

Not only that, I'd really prefer it not to be the Broncos. My hatred for the Broncos runs deep. So, the past two years when the Broncos choked and the Chargers stole the division, I was relieved.

Maybe my dislike for the Chargers is less than it is for the Chiefs or Broncos because the Raiders and Chargers haven't been good at the same time during my lifetime. Maybe it's that the Raiders, despite having lost the last 11 matchups, are well ahead of the Chargers in the all-time series.

Sure, I don't like Philip Rivers, but until he started to calm down a bit recently, he was one of the best interviews in the NFL. He was wild-eyed, screaming sentences full of randomly selected words while foam sprayed from his rabies-infested mouth. It was a riot.

Yes, I look forward to the day when LaDainian Tomlinson retires, but his 31 touchdowns in 2006 (plus the two he threw) was a pretty amazing thing to watch. The fact that he was named NFL Man of the Year (in addition to MVP) after that season for his contributions to society made it even harder to hate him. Besides, the Raiders went 2-14 that year, and Tomlinson was a distraction from that.

But I'm getting carried away. The purpose of this article was not to convince anyone else to agree with me; it was to pose this question to those of you in the great Raider Nation:

Which team is the lesser of the three evils in the AFC West?

I'll put a poll on this page, but I do hope to see some elaboration in the comments.

Thanks, and go Raiders!

P.S. The Seattle Seahawks are a valid option, so I guess there are four evils.

Breaking News: Brandon Marshall Wants to Not Play For You

LechlerFan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 21:24:54 -0400

Just a few weeks from his next suspension-inducing bit of criminal activity, Brandon Marshall has issued a statement to NFL teams that he desperately wants to not play for someone other than the Denver Broncos.

In his statement, Marshall announced he is offering an astonishing 100 percent some-of-your-money-back guarantee and a solemn oath to embarrass the bejeezes out of any team who is looking for a talented wide receiver who will play at least five games per season.

Here is an excerpt from his statement:

"I just want you all to know [stumbles, hurts old person], that I will do whatever I can [pauses, teeters] to help your team [vomits, checks pocket for car keys], but I do have other responsibilities." Marshall failed to elaborate on what those responsibilities might be.

A reporter familiar with the star wideout speculated that Marshall either meant helping needy children at the Darrent Williams Teen Center or helping children off a rapidly spinning merry-go-round with a motorized vehicle of his choosing.

In order to further spread this exciting news to NFL execs and fans alike, Marshall announced he has signed an advertising deal and will be pictured on the box-front of the popular breakfast cereal, Won'ties.

Marshall concluded his statement by saying his ideal situation would be with a team who will likely be switching coaches after the 2009 season and whose quarterback is a "self-focused brat." This, he said, would increase the amount of time he can spend with his new fiance who Marshall himself recently diagnosed with the dreaded "Inexplicable Morning Bruises" disease.

As he left the podium, Marshall sweetly hummed the melody of "Rocky Mountain High," giggling after each use of the word "high," which seemed to be the only word of the song he knew.

JaMarcus Russell's Progress: A New Comparative Statistical Approach

LechlerFan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:27:35 -0400

At the completion of JaMarcus Russell's first full season as quarterback of the Oakland Raiders, his fans and detractors finally had some numbers to work with.

Some used those numbers to label him a "bust," while others called them "progress," but none of it was definitive. As a Raiders fan, I wanted new analysis, which would prove that Russell was headed for greatness.

So I sat down today to do a little research, selecting three of the current era's most successful quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning) and three contemporary "busts" (Vince Young, David Carr, and Alex Smith) for comparison.

This analysis differs from ones I have seen previously, however, in that it is based on the early pass attempts of each quarterback, rather than their first full season or first 16 games as a starter.

Through 434 pass attempts (the number Russell has as of today), or through the game in which each player crossed that threshold, the six quarterbacks ranked, in various categories, as follows.

Completion Percentage

Roethlisberger, 64.7 percent; Brady, 64.3 percent; Smith, 57.6 percent; Manning, 55.7 percent; Russell, 53.9 percent; Young, 53.8 percent; Carr, 52.5 percent

Hopefully Russell will improve on this soon.

Total Yards

Roethlisberger, 3937; Brady, 3137; Manning, 2810; Russell, 2796; Young, 2782; Smith, 2699; Carr, 2552

Though I did not list it here, Russell came in third in average yards per attempt (6.4), behind only Roethlisberger (8.9) and Brady (6.9).

Touchdowns/Interceptions (in order of +/-)

Roethlisberger, 29/15; Brady, 21/12; Russell, 15/12; Young, 12/13; Manning, 19/23; Carr, 9/15; Smith, 11/18

Russell's 6/2 performance over his last three games is cause for optimism.

Sacked

Carr, 76; Smith, 51; Roethlisberger, 44; Brady, 43; Russell, 37; Young, 29; Manning, 15

I was shocked by this statistic. I was sure Russell was sacked far more than the others, with the possible exception of David Carr. That said, 37 is still too many.

Fumbles/Lost

Manning, 2/1; Roethlisberger, 3/3; Brady, 12/3; Young, 14/3; Smith 17/7; Carr, 21/7; Russell, 16/9

Russell is the winner of losing fumbles.

Quarterback Passer Rating

Roethlisberger, 100; Brady, 88.7; Young, 78.9; Russell, 73.9; Manning, 67.3; Smith, 67; Carr, 62.8

Not bad. Again, he showed dramatic improvement during his last three games. This stat is a pain in the you-know-what to calculate, by the way.

Overall, Roethlisberger and Brady stand out from the crowd. David Carr is the clear loser.

Here are two additional stats: Pittsburgh's scoring defense was ranked first during Big Ben's first season as a starter, and their offense ranked second in rushing. The same stats for the Texans during Carr's first year: No. 27 and No. 31, respectively. (For the record, the Raiders finished 24th and 10th in these categories last year).

So what does it mean?

Maybe that the success of a quarterback is impacted by the ability of his team to run the ball and play defense. Maybe it means the ability of a team to run the ball and play defense is impacted by the success of its quarterback. It probably means both.

But do any of the above statistics indicate that JaMarcus Russell deserves the "bust" label, or do they suggest he deserves a pat on the back? One thing's for sure—this analysis did not shed the all-absolving, greatness-guaranteeing light on Russell for which I had hoped. I guess I'll just have to form my opinion of him the hard way—by watching him play.

Or maybe I just need to try another form of analysis. How about a touchdowns-to-interceptions-to-who-can-throw-the-farthest ratio? I'll be giving three-to-one odds on JaMarcus Russell.

The Oakland Raiders: 13 Months From Greatness

LechlerFan — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 22:36:11 -0400

Let's face it, folks, the Raiders are not going to win the Super Bowl this year. They may not even make the playoffs. That's okay, though. Trying to go from the bottom of the league to immediate Super Bowl contenders is a thing of the past for the Oakland Raiders.

If, over the course of the next 13 months, the Raiders can continue the rational, deliberate decision-making they've shown thus far this offseason, they could become regulars in the NFL playoffs as soon as 2010.

And so, with an eye on the future, here is a breakdown of the current team and what needs the Raiders might address in the next two NFL drafts.

Offense

Left tackle - With the signing of Khalif Barnes to a one year contract, the Raiders likely won't draft a left tackle in 2009. Barnes will be given exactly the length of his contract to prove himself.

If he doesn't pan out, the Raiders could take a left tackle in the first round of 2010. First though, he needs to beat returning left tackle Mario Henderson for the starting job.

Left Guard - Barring injury, Robert Gallery has this position locked up for the foreseeable future. No draft pick needed in 2009 or 2010.

Center - Samson Satele will start this year and, like Barnes, will be given a chance to prove himself until his contract expires. He has two years left on said contract at a nice, low price of just $500,000-ish a year. Don't look for the Raiders to make any moves at center until at least 2011.

Right Guard - Cooper Carlisle was not great last season, but he was very good the two years prior; he could return to form in 2009. Paul McQuistan is the backup. Depending on what happens in the upcoming season, this is a possible area of focus in the 2010 draft.

Right Tackle - Cornell Green is the incumbent, but expect Erik Pears or the loser of the battle at left tackle to end up at right tackle. Regardless of who starts, there will be players here for a few years who should keep right tackle from being a major need. No picks in 2009 or 2010.

Tight End - Zach Miller will play in a Pro Bowl some day. A good blocking tight end is somewhat lacking but won't be a pressing need as long as the Raiders are as bad as they are at other positions. This could be addressed very late in the 2010 draft.

Half Back - Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, Darren McFadden and Louis Rankin are in this group. There will be no need at this position for several years.

Full Back - Oren O'Neil is the fullback of the future if he can stay healthy. There is some depth, and the chances of the entire stable of full backs being injured in the same year again are slim. Don't anticipate a pick going this way for a few years unless it is prompted by a career-threatening injury to O'Neil.

Quarterback - Russell is the starter for the foreseeable future. Jeff Garcia and Bruce Gradkowski are, without a doubt, an upgrade over the previous backups. No picks in '09 or '10.

Wide Receiver - There is no definite No. 1, but plenty of talent. Javon Walker was unimpressive last season but, if Tom Cable can get his personality under control, he should be able to serve as the veteran presence the Raiders' receivers need. Johnny Lee Higgins is a natural slot receiver.

Between Walker, Higgins, Chaz Schilens, and Arman Shields, the Raiders are close to having a very deep, and capable, receiving corps. Look for the Raiders to get their No. 1-of-the-future in the draft this year. No pick needed in 2010 (or 2011-2015 for that matter).

Spotlight on the Pick: First Round - Michael Crabtree Despite the possibility that the current receiving talent could be sufficient for the Raiders' run-first offense, drafting a wide receiver in 2009 would almost guarantee that at least a few years will pass before the Raiders spend another offseason debating over-the-hill free agents and scratching their itchy, wide-receiver trigger-fingers in the first and second rounds of the draft.

Defense

Defensive End - Derrick Burgess was once a Pro Bowl player but has been hobbled the last two seasons. He will be 31 before the 2009 season, his last under contract with the Raiders. Injury issues do not typically get better with age.

On the other end of the line, Jay Richardson has steadily improved on first and second down and sophomore Trevor Scott is a capable pass-rush specialist on third down.

Greyson Gunheim and Derrick Gray are the only backups. Look for the Raiders to address this position very early in the 2010 draft, regardless of whether they resign Burgess.

Defensive Tackle - Tommy Kelly is supposed to be an up-the-field penetrator but has yet to be lined up next to a gap hog who can take on multiple blockers and give him the opportunity to make plays.

Terdell Sands and Gerrard Warren would be excellent backups, as they have both shown flashes of brilliance, but neither has proven himself as a starter. The Raiders need to draft a defensive tackle this year.

Spotlight on the Pick: Second Round - Ron Brace Of the top defensive tackles in the draft, Ron Brace may be the best fit for the Raiders. He can occupy at least two offensive linemen in passing situations and moves well down the line of scrimmage to collapse running lanes.

Weakside and Middle Linebacker - Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison, respectively, have manned these positions for a few years and don't look to be going anywhere anytime soon. They're both excellent in coverage but have, at times, been suspect as tacklers.

The Raiders need to give them a year or two with new defensive coordinator John Marshall before investing a high pick in a replacement. No picks in 2009; possibly a mid-round pick in 2010.

Strongside Linebacker - Ricky Brown? Jon Alston? Sam Williams? Who do the Raiders have at one of the key spots on their defense? Special teams players. Expect this to be addressed in the 2009 draft.

Spotlight on the Pick: Fourth Round - Zach Follett Follett is known as a hard hitter who spends a lot of time in the opposing team's backfield. Follett would not have been invited for an interview with the Raiders recently if Jim Michalczik, former Cal, and now Raider, assistant coach, had not signed-off on his personality.

Cornerback - Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson could finish the 2009 season as one of the most respected cornerback duos in the league. Stanford Routt is a very good nickel corner.

Don't expect a pick to be used on a corner this year, though one could be drafted in the middle rounds of 2010 to add depth.

Safety - Michael Huff has never lived up to expectations but is expected start at free safety in 2009. Hiram Eugene will be his backup. Tyvon Branch is the projected starter at strong safety. Hiram Eugene will be his backup.

That is not a type-o. Hiram Eugene is projected to back up both safety positions next year. The Raiders need another safety right away.

Spotlight on the Pick: Third Round - ??? The Raiders could go in several directions when drafting a safety. Chip Vaughn is a natural, in-the-box strong safety; Rashad Johnson is an expert ball hawk at free safety; Chris Clemons is an all-around solid player who played both free safety and strong safety in college.

Availability will likely dictate who the Raiders draft, but expect them to grab a safety in round three this year. They may also need to address one of the safety positions in 2010.

Spotlight on the Pick: Round Seven - ??? In the seventh round, the Raiders would do well to find a player with versatility. Clinton McDonald, for example, can play defensive end or defensive tackle; Ramon Foster can play offensive guard or tackle; Philip Hunt is an OLB/DE hybrid.

The Raiders can add flexibility in round seven as there are several good athletes who need to find a position, and a home, in the NFL.

It would be optimistic, under normal circumstances, to expect a team's first four picks to become major contributors in their rookie season. But Brace and Follett would almost certainly start in 2009, and any safety selected would see a lot of playing time. Crabtree would be expected to start right away.

If all four players were solid and filled the need they were intended to, the Raiders would be in a good position come 2010. Here's a look at what they could do in next year's draft

Rounds One and Two: Depending on what happens with Khalif Barnes and Derrick Burgess, left tackle and defensive end could be the two biggest needs coming out of the 2009 season

Round Three: Fill any remaining need at safety

Round Three: Depth at linebacker

Round Five: A guard/center to backup Carlisle and Satele and possibly replace one of them in the future

Round Six: Depth at corner/safety

Round Seven: A blocking tight end

It's hard to believe, but the Raiders could be just one year away from being able to draft for depth instead of desperately trying to fill gaping holes on both offense and defense. It depends on a lot of things going the right way, but isn't far fetched.

One thing's for sure, with a group of coaches who were specifically selected for their ability to teach, a returning head coach who demands players play for each other, and a whole new WE-CAN-WIN! attitude in the locker room, any players drafted by the Oakland Raiders in 2009 and 2010 will be in a better position to succeed than those who came before them.

Here's to the Raiders of the future.

Raider Fans: All Aboard The May-Train!

LechlerFan — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 13:39:06 -0400

Alright. I've got to write this now, and quick, before I read/see/hear something, and get all kinds of excited about a different first-round prospect and change my mind (AGAIN!) about who I think the Raiders should take with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.

This happens to a lot of us so I hope that you, the reader, can be understanding. If you can't—if you've really been plugging the same first-round pick since the end of last season—that's okay. But read on, this writer's humble opinion may still have something worth a few minutes of your time.

Yesterday, I was bashing my brain against the wall over the scariest foreseeable scenario Al Davis and Co. could confront when they first go on the clock on April 25.

That is: BJ Raji, Michael Crabtree, Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, and Aaron Curry are all off the board. A lot of fans, including myself, say trade the pick, but with all those players, it is unrealistic to think the Raiders could find a team willing to trade up. And so I continued bashing my brain.

Then I read about Aaron Maybin. Until recently, Maybin was not considered a top-10, or even a top-20, pick, but he has been sneaking up mock-draft boards after his combine and pro day workouts.

The experts are saying that he is best suited to a team running a 3-4 defense, and while the Raiders run a 4-3, what do experts know? Well, a lot, but that's not the point.

Here's what I know. At the end of the college football season, during which Maybin played defensive end, those experts were saying he was too small to play end in a 4-3 scheme in the NFL.

Maybin seemed to take offense to those comments, and so he started packing on muscle. When he got to the combine he was much bigger, and worked out with the defensive linemen.

At the end of his workout, he stated in an NFL Network interview that he was unhappy with some of his numbers, and that he looked forward to improving them at his pro day.

When Maybin arrived at said pro day, he not only had put on 25 pounds of muscle since the end of his college season, he improved on his combine performance, just as he had planned.

A guy who makes up his mind to prove himself, and immediately goes out and does it, is exactly the kind of player the Raiders need. Talk about the opposite of Andre Smith, the left tackle who famously went AWOL at the combine and then, grossly out of shape, put on a poor performance at his pro day.

Aaron Maybin is Superman by comparison. Yet, Smith gets a lot of attention as a potential No. 7 pick for Oakland and Maybin does not. Why?

Because the Raiders need a left tackle right now, not a defensive end or outside linebacker? That's possible. But at some point the Raiders might look at drafting players instead of positions.

The moves Al Davis and Tom Cable have made this offseason suggest that character and versatility are now of primary importance to the organization. A guy like Maybin, who is well-spoken and happy to work out for anyone, anytime, fits the new regime like a small square peg in a gigantic square hole.

Even more importantly, Maybin could to fill a need for the Raiders which is beyond the personal and the personnel.

When the Raiders drafted Darren McFadden with the No. 4 pick last season, several of the experts shook their heads and said that the Raiders didn't need a running back as much as they needed talented players at other positions. Mike Mayock, another expert, quickly pointed out that there is one thing every team needs: touchdowns.

The head shakes of the other experts didn't exactly become nods, but the truth in that statement was undeniable, the Raiders had a need which transcended position, scheme, or character.

This year, what Oakland might need more than anything is a face for their defense. Nnamdi Asomugha may be the best cornerback in the league, but opposing teams have simply avoided him the last two seasons.

The Raiders need a player on defense who is unavoidable. They need a name which strikes fear into their opponents. When the great defenses of the NFL take the field, announcers say, "Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense...," "James Harrison and the Steelers...," or "the Chargers defense, led by Shawn Merriman...," et al.

There's a guy in this year's draft whose name could become synonymous with the Raiders defense for many years; he's a square peg which can fit into a hole of any size and shape; he's a player who will, by ALL accounts, be available when the Raiders take their first pick in the 2009 draft.

That guy is Aaron Maybin.

The Oakland Raiders: Bringing Fans Together Through the Draft

LechlerFan — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:13:32 -0400

Having spent many hours this year cruising the tubes of the Internet for facts and opinions about the Raiders' offseason, I have noticed that there is, among the fans, two very black-and-white schools of thought regarding what the Raiders should try to accomplish in the 2009 NFL draft. Alright, there's a little grey in there, but for the most part, Raider fans fit so cleanly into two groups that the argument could almost be had between just two people.

The first person, let's call him Offense Guy, says that the Raiders' biggest need is wide receiver, followed by offensive line, or the other way around. Offense Guy typically suggests that the Raiders draft Michael Crabtree in the first round and a center like Max Unger in the second. He might also suggest an offensive tackle in the first, a wide receiver in the second, and a center in the third round. Regardless, Offense Guy rarely is seen to suggest taking a defensive player before the fourth round of the draft.

On the other side of the fence is Defense Guy, and he is certain that the Raiders' biggest need is defensive tackle. Linebacker, safety, and defensive end are also near the top of his list of needs. Defense Guy hopes the Raiders take B.J. Raji with the No. 7 overall pick, or address another defensive need in the first round and take Ron Brace in the second.

A bit of the aforementioned grey area comes in when Defense Guy argues his case but is then seen plugging a wide receiver in the second or third round. Aside from that, Defense Guy frequently doesn't have an offensive player taken in ANY round of the draft.

I can hear the complaints already. No one likes to be put into a box, categorized, or pigeon-holed. Some readers will be quick to point out that they don't fit into either group, and then list their mock Raider-draft which, to an unbiased eye, will be remarkably similar to that of Offense Guy or Defense Guy.

But let's not argue. There are already thousands of places on-line where Raider fans can debate in an I'm-right-you're-wrong fashion. Let's not pit the greatest fans in the world against each other in just another all-out qwerty battle.

A new debate needs to begin: How can the Raiders, in the upcoming draft, make EVERYONE happy? Wouldn't that be nice? A warm, fuzzy draft after which all of Raider Nation can feel optimistic about next season? Is that even possible?

Here are a few scenarios in which black and white, Defense Guy and Offense Guy, and everyone in between can come together in draft nirvana. Let the debate, and the hand-holding, begin.

Scenario No. 1

Round 1. Michael Crabtree, WR

Round 2. Ron Brace, DT

Round 3. Fenuki Tupou, OT

Round 4. Zach Follett, OLB

Round 7. Curtis Taylor, S

Scenario No. 2

Round 1. B.J. Raji, DT

Round 2. Max Unger, C

Round 3. Chip Vaughn, S

Round 4. Brandon Tate, WR

Round 7. Ramon Foster, G/T

Scenario No. 3

Round 1. Andre Smith, OT

Round 2. James Laurinaitis, ILB

Round 3. Chris Clemons, S

Round 4. Kevin Ogletree, WR

Round 7. Clinton McDonald, DE/DT

Now it's your turn, but don't forget to keep the needs of your fellow Raider fan in mind.

Why Michael Crabtree May Not Be a Lock for Raiders

LechlerFan — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 19:40:50 -0400

On Apr. 25, Roger Goodell will approach the podium at the 2009 NFL Draft and announce, "With the number seven pick in the NFL draft, the Oakland Raiders do not select Michael Crabtree from Texas Tech University."

Shocked? Here's why Crabtree may not be a sure thing for the Raiders:

1. Crabtree Is Not Available

Many Raider fans are screaming that Michael Crabtree has too much talent to pass up on. Why then, do they think that the fans, coaches and upper management of the teams picking before the Raiders aren't screaming the same thing?

An argument can be made that none of those teams need a wide receiver, but with talent like Crabtree dangling in front of them, don't be surprised if he's gone by No. 7.

2. Wide Receiver Is Not the Raiders' Biggest Need

The Oakland Raiders have not finished better than 22nd against the run since 2002. Not surprisingly, that was the last time the Raiders made the playoffs.

Their scoring defense has ranked better than 24th only once during that time, ranking 18th in 2006. In other words, defense, and especially the run defense, is a problem for the Raiders.

Defensive tackle, strong-side linebacker, safety, and defensive end are all areas of weakness. No doubt, wide receiver and offensive line are also weaknesses. It will be up to Al Davis and someone else (see No. 4) to decide which need is greatest.

3. The Raiders' Receiving Corps Is Not as Bad as It Seems

Anyone who watched the beginning and middle of last season knows that no one, not Michael Crabree, Tim Brown, nor Fred Biletnikoff, was going to catch a lot of the balls JaMarcus Russell was throwing.

By the end of the season, however, he was starting to click with young receivers Chaz Schilens and Johnny Lee Higgins, and he was clicking even sooner than that with tight end Zach Miller.

In his last seven games, Russell threw seven touchdowns and four interceptions. That's not bad for what was essentially a rookie quarterback.

With Higgins, Schilens, and Miller returning, along with Arman Shields (who excited coaches last year before being injured for the season) and veteran Javon Walker (let the scoffing begin), the Raiders may have enough quality pass-catchers to get the job done in what is undoubtedly going to be a run-first offense.

4. Al Davis' Opinion Is No Longer the Only One That Counts

Everyone knows that Al Davis loves big-name players who sell jerseys and put butts in the seats at the Coliseum.

It is also common knowledge that Al Davis is the guy who makes the decisions in Oakland, damn what anyone else thinks.

That logic points straight to Crabtree. But a change is in the wind this offseason.

Examples: a) Word has it that Davis allowed coach Tom Cable to be involved in the selection of his own staff.

b) The Raiders re-signed the majority of their free agents, including the two most important: Shane Lechler and Nnamdi Asomugha.

c) Davis renegotiated the contracts of several players, including Russell, Walker, Justin Fargas, and Robert Gallery.

d) Al Davis has yet to throw unprecedented money at a free agent with an attitude problem.

While none of this indicates that someone else is calling the shots in Oakland, it does seem that someone else finally has some input, and so far that input has been good.

The point is, just because Crabtree is the prototypical big-name guy for Al Davis, that might not make him a lock with the No. 7 pick if this new source of input (likely Tom Cable) is opposed to it.

5. Al Davis Hasn't Drafted a First-Round Wide Receiver Aince Tim Brown (1988)

This is a tenuous argument, especially in light of the previous one. Plus, Tim Brown was a pretty decent pick up, if memory serves, which would be an argument in favor of drafting Crabtree.

6. Michael Crabtree Has Not Worked Out for Anyone, Yet

Considering the emphasis that Al Davis places on a player's performance at the Combine, the fact that Crabtree has yet to work out for anyone could impact Davis' decision.

Al Davis loves speed above all else, or so it is said, and that characteristic was the biggest question mark with regard to Crabtree's performance in college, even before his foot injury. He was caught from behind too many times in the open field.

Without a 40-yard dash time to contradict that, Al may be wary of picking Crabtree at No. 7.

7. There Is Depth at Wide Receiver in This Year's Draft

There are several receivers in this year's draft who performed well at the Combine and/or at a Pro Day and some of them will be available after the first round, at a time when the Raiders are on the clock.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (4.30 second 40-yard dash) could be available in the second round and Derrick Williams (4.37 at his Pro Day) could be available in the third, among others.

None may be better than Crabtree, but the draft is about weighing the depth and value of each position in each round.

The difference, talent-wise, between a first and second round player at another position may be greater, in the eyes of the Raiders, than the difference between a first and second round receiver.

8. The Raiders Don't Draft Well in the First Round, and Drafting Michael Crabtree Would Be Drafting Well

Michael Crabtree has immense talent and his performance in college warrants the No. 7 pick. He may even turn out to be a perennial Pro Bowl player.

So he can't go to the Raiders, right?

Only one eventual Pro Bowler has been drafted in the first round by the Raider in the last 10 years.

This argument was meant as a joke initially, but it's scary isn't it? One could argue that McFadden, and even Russell, might eventually make the Pro Bowl, but still, the record is not good.

But it's this own-hair-pulling unpredictability that both attracts and repels Raider fans year after year, and it's the real Raider fans who keep coming back. So while the "experts" have only a few guys on the radar for the Raiders, there are a bunch of surprise players, and potential mistakes, who could be selected No. 7 overall.

Who will it be then, that holds up the Silver and Black with Commissioner Goodell on draft day? That's up to Al Davis (and whomever else he allows to influence his decision), but there are an awful lot of reasons why it won't be Michael Crabtree.