Bleacher Report - Articles by Myles Lu

NHL: The Road to an All-Canadian Stanley Cup Final

Myles Lu — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 05:38:39 -0400

My review of the playoff match-ups has led me to the conclusion that an All-Canadian team Stanley Cup Final seems very possible this year.

That would be quite the achievement considering out west, Calgary is the only Canadian team in the playoffs and they are seventh.

Let me go through my analysis and you tell me what you think.

In the Western Conference: Detroit over Nashville. This year's Detroit team is as good if not better than previous. The question might be the consistency of goaltending but it's the playoffs.

I'm going with the team with more experience and talent. Detroit in five.

Why do I think the Sharks will fall to Calgary?

Since the New Year, they have played three times, each with Calgary just squeaking by with a goal.

I think Calgary's a team that has been there before, and also felt the loss of what could have been.

This year, in the underdog role initially, I think they are the first round upset waiting to happen. Calgary in six.

It's a little disappointing for the Sharks, or rather it will be disappointing for them, since they have been primed to go deep into the playoffs if not picked by many to win it all.

But this first round match up. The Flames are better at clawing out those important wins.

Minnesota over Colorado in seven. Dallas over Anaheim in six.

I like the make up of the Minnesota team over the defense in Colorado. Special teams will be important, but at the end of the day, Colorado has more to overcome in my mind than Minnesota just based on the style of play.

The Wild are ready to go deep.

The defending champions will be out with fisticuffs banging away at the Stars.

I think the pain and disappointment last year in the Stars room will have them flying out of the gates stealing a game within the first two. From there, they will champion themselves into the next round.

Calgary over Detroit in six, Minnesota over Dallas in five. Calgary over Minny in seven.

I'm a Vancouver fan, and I've seen Calgary play in my division and the Wild. I think they are in the conference finals, and it's going to be a great battle.

Out East: Montreal's dominance, in general, and of the Bruins leads me to believe they can sweep. Out of respect for the Bruins, I say Montreal in five.

Caps and Philly: I like the momentum of the Caps, but I think the Flyers can turn that around with their crash bang style of play.

Hartnell shadowing Ovechkin could be interesting. I wish I would be in North America to watch.

Coin flip.

Looks like I flipped Caps in seven.

Rangers over the Devils in six.

I think the Rangers will play the dark horse role very well in the first and second round. Watch for Daniel Girardi to step it up even more.

The drama series in round one will be the Sens and Pens.

I think the Sens can win, but logic has me narrowing the field towards the Pens in seven.

Regardless of the choice, I think a Canadian team will still make it out of the East.

If Pens win, they play the Rangers next. If Sens win, they play the Habs.

Whoever wins, a Sens/Habs series will win the East. They are that good.

Rushing the end of this article, but the match-ups would go through to MON vs. NYR and then PIT vs. WAS.

The Malkin vs. Ovechkin battle would be great for the league.

MON vs. PIT would also be a great young goaltender battle. Lots of great plot lines here.

CGY vs. MON. Circa 1986 or 1989!

NHL Western Conference Standings: April 9

Myles Lu — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 15:07:33 -0400

There are 9-11 games left for most teams. The race in the west is particularly tight in the 7th and 8th spots at the conference level and also within the Northwest division. If we do a simulation based on each team's relative performance in their last 10 respective games, we can trend a potential final result. My breakdown is below. It's not completely "scientific" however I compared the records of each team and their respective match-up and allocated points based on their records.

The assumption here of course means San Jose remains hot and most teams maintain their relative poise, roster/IR status and competitiveness.

The result is:

DET 116
SJS 111
COL 97
ANA 100
DAL 99
CGY 94
MIN 92
PHX 89 (36+5=41 Wins)
VAN 89 (35+3=38 Wins)
EDM 88
NAS 86
CHI 85
CLB 84

Which would have DET facing PHX, SJS vs. Minny, COL vs. CGY and DAL vs. ANA.

Immediately there are two huge divisional rivalries in the last two groupings which could very well go the distance in the best of seven. As the RW's have been known to be knocked out in round 1 (twice in last 4 playoffs), the Coyotes story could live on. And of course, Minnesota will try yet again to make it through an initial round as the Sharks will try to impose their end of season dominance in their quest for the Cup.

Will try and do a similar simulation for the East soon. Sadly, the Canucks do not make it because they do not win enough games while their point total was boosted by the OTL's. Recall last season's remark that their OT success helped to boost them into the playoffs, perhaps masking an underlying performance problem.

Two interesting notes. Phoenix and Edmonton can continue to feast on the potential of taking 8th. Minnesota's 3-4-3 in their last ten, and could slip that 7th spot if they continue to slump!

My assumptions are below: TEAM = vs Team # games (Results)

DET= Nsh 3 (2W), Cls 4 (2W,1OTL), Stl 2 (2W), Chi 2 (1W,1OTL)
100+4+5+4+3=116pts

NAS= Det 3 (1W), Was, Chi 2 (1OTL), Cls 2 (1W), Stl 2 (1W, 1OTL)
78+2+1+2+3=86pts

CLB= Chi 3 (1W, 1OTL), Det 4 (1W, 1OTW), Cgy, Nsh 2 (1W), Stl 2 (1W, 1OTL)
73+3+3+2+3=84pts

CHI= Cls 3 (2W), Det 2 (1OTW), Nas 2 (1W,1OTW), Was(1OTL), STL 2 (1W), CGY (1OTL)
73+4+1+3+1+2+1=85pts

COL= NJ (1W), Min 3 (2W), Cgy 2 (1W, 1OTW), Edm 2 (1W), Van 2 (1W,1OTL)
84+2+4+4+2+3=97pts

MIN= LA (1W), Col 3 (1W), SJ, EDM 2 (1OTW), Van 2 (1W), Cgy 2 (1W, 1OTL)
82+2+2+1+2+3=92pts

CGY= COL 2 (1OTL), MIN 2 (1OTW), CLB (1W), CHI (1OTW), VAN 3 (1W, 1OTW), EDM 2 (1W)
82+1+2+2+2+3+2=94pts

VAN= DAL (1OTL), PHO, COL 2 (1OTW), EDM 2 (1OTL), MIN 2 (1W), CGY 3 (1W, 1OTL)
80+1+2+1+2+3=89pts

EDM= PHO 2 (1W, 1OTW), SJ, VAN 2 (1W, 1OTW), MIN 2 (1W, 1OTL), COL 2 (1W), CGY 2 (1W)
73+4+4+3+2+2=88pts

SJS= STL (1W), EDM (1W), LOS 3 (2W,1OTL), ANA 2 (1W, 1OTW), MIN (1W), PHO 2 (1W, 1OTW), DAL 2 (2W)
90+2+2+5+3+2+3+4=111pts

DAL= Van (1OTW), Ana 2 (1OTW), SJS 2, LOS 2 (1W, 1OTW), PHO 2 (1W)
89+2+2+4+2=99pts

ANA= STL (1W), DAL 2 (1W, 1OTL), SJS 2 (1OTL), LOS 2 (1W, 1OTW), PHO 2 (1W)
88+2+3+1+4+2=100pts

PHO= EDM 2 (1OTL), VAN (1W), LOS 2 (1W, 1OTW), ANA 2 (1W), SJS 2 (1OTL), DAL 2 (1W)
77+1+2+4+2+1+2=89pts

Canucks -- Still control their fate.

Myles Lu — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 21:51:34 -0400

Despite tonight's loss to conference rival and potential playoff spot ouster, Phoenix Coyotes, the Vancouver Canucks are still in control of their fate. Ohlund's absence however in the final 11 games will be felt, however it can still be an opportunity for someone to step it up.

The key is our powerplay. After special teams produced a short-handed goal and went 2 for 6 in Nashville on the power play, the well has since gone dry in that department, going 2 for 22 in the last four games. Luongo's heroic effort tonight could've used some PP help. Power play goals not only put up points but turn/stop/limit the moment on the scoreboard by opposing teams.

Hand it to the Coyotes though, for coming out and firing hard. I love the Hanzal, Winnick, and Weller line. Three guys over six foot two inches muscling away on their opponents on the forecheck creating multiple opportunities. Hanzal is not even full grown into his weight yet. Can only imagine what is to come. I noticed this the other day when I was cheering hard for Phoenix to beat the Ducks. They were the last game winner I needed to hit a 5-game parlay. It hit; coincidentally it was my birthday too (Tuesday).

For the Canucks to secure their playoff spot, the PK will need to continue to be solid but we need to capitalize on our power play chances. In Canucks style this means that the defense will need to contribute. Be strong on the puck as well as mobile, opening the shooting lanes for the big shots that we do have. Bieksa's lone goal since coming back from IR is an area where I think great contributions can occur.

The more they contribute and/or attempt to contribute it can only open bigger lanes for the Sedins and Nazzy to work their magic. Too often right now Naslund's shooting at the goalie's chest, everything else is closed and blocked.

The two keys for the Canucks to secure that playoff spot will be the Power Play effectiveness and the contributions of the defensemen. We're still 3-2 in the last five, but have been outworked and outplayed two nights in a row. Big task to respond on Saturday in Dallas. They are 1-4 playing conference rivals this month. No sense in letting them build back their confidence.

Go Canucks Go.