Bleacher Report - Articles by Jesse Arendt

What The NBA Is Telling America (Based On The Schedule)

Jesse Arendt — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:12:39 -0400

With the release of the full schedule Tuesday, all 30 teams now know what games they will have in front of a national audience. I decided to rank the 30 teams based on the number of national televised games (3 points for ABC, 2 for ESPN/TNT, 1 for NBA TV), leaving some eye-opening results.

1. Boston Celtics (6 ABC Games, 19 ESPN/TNT, 7 NBA TV)

The return of KG and a team that has won more games the last two years than any other tops the list. The 25 games on basic cable ties for the most, but the 7 additional NBA TV games puts them over the top. Marquee franchise with marquee exposure.

2. Orlando Magic (5 ABC, 19 ESPN/TNT, 8 NBA TV)

One of the (minor) surprises on the list is the ESPN fully backing the Eastern Conference champions, and the addition of Vince Carter might have bumped them just above the MVP and the champ in the schedule. Finals ratings (8.4, 9.4 in gm 4 before dropoff) also could have inspired the NBA to back the Magic has a power in the NBA. The Eastern Conference race seems to be the NBA's main anticipated draw this season.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (5 ABC, 20 ESPN/TNT, 4 NBA TV)

The best regular season team in the NBA with the NBA MVP is somewhat surprisingly only 3rd, though the top 4 are essentially even. Yes, the top 3 teams in national TV is in the East. All above the NBA Champions. Also surprising is that the Cavs only have 5 ABC games, though they do have the Christmas day game with the following team...

4. Los Angeles Lakers (6 ABC, 19 ESPN/TNT)

The main reason the defending champs are 4th in these rankings is the lack of an NBA TV broadcast, which is surprising, but possibly mandatory. As mentioned earlier, it's pretty much the East trio and the Lakers in its own group of prominence, then the rest of the NBA. Self explanatory.

5. Denver Nuggets (3 ABC, 19 ESPN/TNT, 7 NBA TV)

The next tier starts with the Western Conference Finalists led by a top 10 player in popularity in Carmelo and a pretty entertaining and animated group of players. Stern doesn't shy away from the probable NBA leaders in tattoos, but still have great talent and a solid, if occasionally combustible, product.

6. San Antonio Spurs (3 ABC, 17 ESPN/TNT, 8 NBA TV)

Spurs continue to waddle in the second tier of a consistent NBA team led by arguably the best power forward ever but because they wear black and don't have any players with great marketing skills (unless you enjoyed Tony Parker's rap album or the fact the most marketable asset is Parker's wife, Eva) so they are around but not completely sold. Richard Jefferson's appearance helps keep them this high.

7. Phoenix Suns (1 ABC, 17 ESPN/TNT, 7 NBA TV)

They traded away their third leading scorer, they have a star with an eye problem and another in his mid-30s, and they didn't make the playoffs last season, but they still run the most entertaining offense in basketball. Apparently, that's enough. The Suns might not make the playoffs again, but at least you can see them often. Shockingly, none of their matchups against Golden State are nationally televised. Who doesn't want to see another 154-130 game this year.

8. Portland Trailblazers (1 ABC, 16 ESPN/TNT, 7 NBA TV)

The Blazers continue to move up the totem pole into the main attraction group, being the last of the eight NBA teams to make an appearance on ABC (yes, if you don't own basic cable, you only will see eight NBA teams this regular season). Could be moving up the list with the often praised young nucleus. Could be Brandon Roy's coming out party into superstardom this year. If he's not there already.

9. Miami Heat (15 ESPN/TNT, 8 NBA TV)

Any Dwyane Wade-led team for the next five years will have at least 15 games on TV. If he leaves next year, Miami will drop into the 20s. Only Lebron, Kobe, and Wade have this much pull in terms of national TV. Miami-Cleveland is on the National schedule three times this year, and is probably the best duel matchup on an individual level in the league (Kobe-LeBron happens twice, and no matchup has featured a great performance by either).

10. Utah Jazz (13 ESPN/TNT, 8 NBA TV)

Still a solid group despite struggling to make the playoffs last year but are in flux with the uncertain future of Carlos Boozer. Nevertheless, the Jazz are still a good draw and some heated matchups with LA and New Orleans are often entertaining.

11. Dallas Mavericks (13 ESPN/TNT, 7 NBA TV)

Adding Shawn Marion at least keeps the Mavericks interesting even after making the second round last year and winning 50 games, and are still a decent draw, though not as often as in the past three years. Dallas-San Antonio, one of the better rivalries this decade, only has one national TV game.

12. Chicago Bulls (13 ESPN/TNT, 5 NBA TV)

The NBA is not quite ready to jump on the Bulls bandwagon after being burned two years ago from a potential title contender. However, Boston-Chicago should always be on national TV, and all four matchups are on this year. Thank goodness.

13. New Orleans Hornets (9 ESPN/TNT, 7 NBA TV)

Chris Paul felt a sharp increase in exposure last year after his under-the-radar MVP caliber run two years ago, but now with the Hornets struggles last year, they are moved back to the solid but unspectacular coverage group.

14. Washington Wizards (8 ESPN/TNT, 8 NBA TV)

Yes, the Washington Wizards. The winners of all of 19 games last season get a boost by adding two solid NBA players in Randy Foye and Mike Miller and with the expected return of Gilbert Arenas moves them back into the middle of pack in coverage. If they fail again, it might be the last time an Arenas-led team gets favorable coverage opportunities.

15. Los Angeles Clippers (8 ESPN/TNT, 5 NBA TV)

Yes. The Los Angeles Clippers. Last year, only Derrick Rose (with help from being on a recently good team) was able to give an NBA team a coverage boost by his arrival. This year, there are two, but Blake Griffin's getting the Greg Oden push by the NBA in exposure. Hopefully for Blake, he doesn't have his career start the way Oden's did.

16. Atlanta Hawks (7 ESPN/TNT, 6 NBA TV)

One of only two teams to win a playoff round last year but not find itself in the top 10 in coverage, apparently Joe Johnson's scoring skill, Mike Bibby's leadership, or Josh Smith's unique athleticism are enough to provide more exposure.

17. Golden State Warriors (8 ESPN/TNT, 3 NBA TV)

The second team to receive a draftee bump in coverage is built by the introduction of media darling Stephen Curry into a high octane offense. Curry's elite 8 game against Kansas in 2008 was the highest rated non-Final Four game of the season, and his performances at times can be breathtaking. Anthony Randolph's Lamar Odom-like skills mixed with a ridiculous motor and a wide range of in-game emotions.

18. New York Knicks (i.e. Madison Square Garden) (5 ESPN/TNT, 5 NBA TV)

In reality, the Knicks playing anywhere else but the World's Most Famous Arena would provide as many national games as their neighbors on the New Jersey Turnpike. However, LeBron's impending free agency along with his and Kobe's gamesmanship in MSG provide reason for some opportunities for the NBA to showcase, even if the games may not be as competitive. Nine of the Knicks ten national games are in MSG.

19. Detroit Pistons (4 ESPN/TNT, 5 NBA TV)

The signings of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva apparently did not convince the NBA enough that they would become a superpower, and the Pistons are fading closer to NBA irrelevance for the first time in nearly a decade.

20. Philadelphia 76ers (2 ESPN/TNT, 7 NBA TV)

The loss of Andre Miller and the lack of a truly marketable player (though Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala are not far off) appears to move Philly near the back of the pack amongst 2009 playoff teams. A little surprising for a team with solid veterans and a good group of youngsters (Thad Young, Lou Williams, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday).

21. Houston Rockets (7 NBA TV)

To me, the most shocking statement by the NBA. The Rockets are apparently not interesting this year to follow despite providing the biggest challenge to the Lakers last. However, it will be tough for a team devoid of an active player taller than 6-9 or a 15 ppg scorer in a season to make an impact in the race.

T22. Charlotte Bobcats (4 NBA TV)

The Bobcats start the bottom nine, the teams that all have four or less nationally televised games, and none of the group has more than one national game on basic cable. The Bobcats did win 35 games last year and showed the potential of squeaking into the playoffs next year.

T22. Indiana Pacers (1 ESPN, 2 NBA TV)

The Pacers finished 9th in the East and have an excellent scorer in the form of Danny Granger and one of the most publicized rookies in Tyler Hansbrough, though his impact this season is unknown. The Pacers' lone ESPN game happens to be their final game of the year.

T22. Oklahoma City Thunder (1 ESPN, 2 NBA TV)

For some reason, the concept of a Russell Westbrook/James Harden/Jeff Green trio backing a future Olympian in Kevin Durant does not appear to effect the NBA enough this season to give them more then a sniff of coverage. While they aren't likely to make a playoff push, they may not be far off.

T25. Memphis Grizzlies (1 TNT, 1 NBA TV)

Pretty self-explanatory. Not a good team, though Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo have their moments. Might be stuck in minimal exposure for a while.

T25. Minnesota Timberwolves (1 ESPN, 1 NBA TV)

David Kahn's super-plan doesn't appear to pay any immediate dividends, or at least, the NBA doesn't believe in the Wolves. Still, a core of Al Jefferson/Kevin Love/Johnny Flynn paired with Ricky Rubio's rights could lead to some success down the road.

T25. Toronto Raptors (1 ESPN, 1 NBA TV)

Somewhat surprising to see the Raptors with minimal coverage, despite having an Olympian in Chris Bosh, the big signing of Hedo Turkoglu, and providing the closest to an international team out there. May not win 40 games, but is still interesting.

28. New Jersey Nets (2 NBA TV)

With the trade of Vince Carter, the Nets only have one semi-marquee name on their roster in Devin Harris. While the Nets have pieces in Courtney Lee and Brook Lopez, this season will not likely be much better than last year's 34 win team.

T29. Milwaukee Bucks (1 NBA TV)

Nothing to see here. Except maybe Brandon Jennings.

T29. Sacramento Kings (1 NBA TV)

Nothing to see here. Except maybe Tyreke Evans.

In short, the Eastern Conference matters, the Lakers and NBA TV don't get along, the Suns are bigger than the Rockets, and go ahead and sleep on the Thunder, Raptors, Pacers, and Bobcats.

Predicting the 2009 NCAA Tournament Bracket

Jesse Arendt — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 14:40:38 -0400

It's that time of the year—Selection Sunday. The madness will be outlined before our very eyes.

While everyone will be picking their brackets over the next few days, I decided to take an extra step, and guess what the bracket will look like before it is actually released.

I predicted the bracket last year under the headline "the quest to beat Joe Lunardi" and lost to Joe picking teams (he got 65 of 65, I got 64) but did a little better job picking seeds.

You can review my last year's picks and recap here.

I will not simply try and outpick a fellow (and highly more successful) bracketologist this year, but simply try to see how close I can get to being right this year.

This first version will run for a couple hours then I will update it after the 1 EST games end, especially since both the ACC and SEC finals can impact the entire grid.

From what I've learned over doing this before is that the 3 EST and later games today (this year it's only the Big Ten final) is finished too late to change the bracket, and both teams in the final are in, so it's specific outcome will have no bearing on the seeding.

Updated through all games except the Big Ten final which won't effect the seeding (auto bids in bold, predicted auto bids italicized, RPI numbers thanks to InsideRPI from ESPN):

East

1 Pittsburgh (Big East)

No. 1 overall seed, 7 top 25 wins, tied for most in the nation.

16a Morehead State (OVC) (Play-in game)

Winner of the OVC tournament, tough OT win over Austin Peay to get here.

16b Chattanooga (Southern) (Play-in game)

Winner of the Southern conference tourney, much less thrilling to the public than Davidson.

8 Cal (Pac-10) 22-10

9 Dayton (A-10) 26-7

Cal very inconsistent, but with a lot of big wins. After reviewing Cal and Tennessee's profile, I switched the two seeds. Dayton's 26 wins help them get in as the second best A-10 team.

5 Florida State (ACC) 25-9

12 San Diego State (MWC) 23-9

San Diego State is in my last three in—beating UNLV three times and BYU in the semifinals of the MWC tourney gets 'em in, but just barely. Florida State finished real strong, and might be good enough to be a four-seed if they can beat Duke.

4 Purdue (Big Ten) (predicted winner over Ohio St) 24-9

13 Cleveland State (Horizon) 25-10

Great finish for Purdue—blowing away Penn State and solidly beating Illinois. Great shooters. Cleveland State is capable of an upset. Purdue knows upsets too well.

6 Gonzaga (WCC) 26-5

11 Temple (A-10) 22-11

Temple moves up to an 11 with the Mississippi State win. Gonzaga is a real hot team right now, but a lower seed than their top 25 ranking would suggest.

3 Wake Forest (ACC) 24-6

14 North Dakota State (Summit) 26-6

Wake Forest is very up-and-down, but finished second in the ACC. North Dakota State is now officially the most consistent tournament team in Division I (one appearance in one year of eligibility).

7 Butler (Horizon) 26-5

10 Siena (MAAC) 26-7

Ironically, the committee has a tendency to mix good mid-majors together, like Drake and Butler a year ago. Both teams could be the mid-major Cinderella this year.

2 Oklahoma (Big 12) 27-5

15 Portland State (Big Sky) 23-9

Oklahoma may have been a one-seed before their loss to Oklahoma State—instead they are here as the worst of the two-seeds, falling behind Duke/Memphis/Michigan State.

The Sooners still have 10 top 50 wins, the second most in the nation.

Portland State is barely in after nipping Montana State in the Big Sky championship, despite being heavy favorites.

South

1 Louisville (Big East) 28-5

16 Morgan State (MEAC) 23-11

Louisville clinched a No. 1 seed with the Big East championship and help from UConn going down in a 70-minute slugfest with Syracuse. Louisville also went 7-1 against top 25 RPI teams.

8 Utah State (WAC) 30-4

9 Oklahoma State (Big 12) 22-11

Utah State has a ton of wins and a great record, but have simply beat nobody, and thus very tough to predict on how good they'll be in the tourney.

I'm leaning toward the more pessimistic side, and believe Oklahoma State, who finished strong in the Big 12 to get in the tournament, would have the advantage.

5 Illinois (Big Ten) 24-9

12 Mississippi State (SEC) 23-12

Illinois benefited from a surprisingly balanced Big Ten, and has nine top 50 wins. Mississippi State takes Penn State's (and other bubble teams') bid by beating Tennessee Sunday.

4 Washington (Pac 10) 25-8

13 Binghamton (Am East) 23-8

If this turns out to be the matchup, it will be an entertaining one, with both teams able to get up and down. Binghamton is capable of knocking off a good team, and Washington might be the best story out of the Pac-10 behind a great force inside in Jon Brockman.

6 LSU (SEC) 26-7

11 USC (Pac-10) 21-12

This matchup includes two surprises this year—LSU's recovery from the depths of the SEC to a regular season crown, and USC playing their way into the tournament, taking out Cal, UCLA, and Arizona State in three days. Trent Johnson knows USC well from his days in the Pac-10.

3 Villanova (Big East) 26-7

14 Stephen F Austin (Southland) 24-7

Villanova is a beneficiary of the great Big East, proving last year's sweet 16 run as a 12 seed was no fluke.

7 Clemson (ACC) 23-8

10 Texas A&M (Big 12) 23-9

Clemson has been faltering recently, while A&M has been hot. The Aggies also played their way into the NCAA's late in the season. It should be a hard fought matchup.

2 Michigan State (Big Ten) 26-6

15 Radford (Big South) 21-11

Michigan State's loss to Ohio State cost them a legitimate shot at a No. 1 seed. Spartans have more real good wins then anyone, mostly thanks to the Big Ten, where they were regular season champs. 13 top 50 wins by Michigan State is three more than any other team in the nation.

Midwest

1 UNC (ACC) 28-4

16 Cal State-Northridge (Big West) 17-13

UNC still holds their No. 1 seed, mostly because of only having 4 losses, and winning the solid ACC outright. Beating Duke twice helps. Northridge got in yesterday with an overtime win over Pacific, who hasn't been the same since the days of Michael Olowokandi.

8 Texas (Big 12) 22-11

9 Wisconsin (Big Ten) 19-12

This is a rematch of a close game in December at Wisconsin—both teams are capable of beating anyone, but both have been very inconsistent this year.

5 West Virginia (Big East) 23-11

12 Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) 24-8

West Virginia had a very solid year in year two of the Bob Huggins era. Western Kentucky is trying to prove last year's Sweet 16 run was no fluke, despite losing a solid pro in Courtney Lee.

4 Xavier (A-10) 25-7

13 Northern Iowa (MVC) 23-10

Xavier is a hard team to figure out, but good enough to win several games and make a run in the tournament. Northern Iowa played their way in with an MVC final win over Illinois State.

6 Arizona State (Pac-10) 24-9

11 VCU (CAA) 24-9

Could be a great matchup with two college superstars and future first round picks with consensus All-American James Harden and mid-major great Eric Maynor, who beat Duke as an 11-seed two years ago.

3 Missouri (Big 12) 28-6

14 Cornell (Ivy) 21-9

Mike Anderson's revised "40 minutes of Hell" scheme is finally paying off for Missouri after using it at UAB. Cornell was the first team to officially receive their automatic bid, and could provide a tough game for whoever they play.

7 Marquette (Big East) 24-9

10 Minnesota (Big Ten) 22-10

These are two teams on the decline—Minnesota barely got in with a couple wins late, but nine top 100 and five top 50 wins are enough to get in as an at-large. Marquette has gone 1-5 without Dominic James (counting the game where he was hurt), and could have been as high as a three-seed before that injury.

2 Memphis (C-USA) 31-3

15 Robert Morris (NEC) 24-10

Though Memphis is on a tremendous winning streak, the main reason I have them as a two-seed instead of a one is the lack of great wins.

Their two best wins are very good ones—at Tennessee and at Gonzaga, but their next best win is probably against Cincinnati, or in conference against UAB and Tulsa.

They have fewer top-50 wins than NIT-bound Northwestern, but they are still dangerous, and only have three losses. Robert Morris is my best 15-seed, and could keep the game close.

West

1 Duke (ACC) 28-6

16 Alabama State (SWAC) 22-9

Yes. Duke is a one-seed, after beating Florida State. With the win Sunday, Duke has more top 100 wins than anyone in the country with 18, passing Oklahoma, and would have six top 25 wins. Alabama State avoids the play-in game with 22 wins.

8 Ohio State (Big Ten) 22-9

9 BYU (MWC) 25-7

Ohio State could move up with a win Sunday, but will not be considered since the game will end too close to the deadline. BYU dropped a couple seeds with the MWC semifinal loss to San Diego State, and their great home court advantage doesn't work as well in the tournament.

5 UCLA (Pac-10) 25-8

12 Creighton (MVC) 26-7

UCLA will be seeded a line or two higher than they should in honor of their Final Four run in recent years. This is not as good a team, but they are still dangerous because of their history.

Creighton is in my last three in, but 26 wins and nine top 100 wins should be enough.

(For Maryland fans, though there have been teams below-.500 in conference that made the tournament, I am not putting Maryland in for that reason. If they would have beaten Duke, they would have made my bracket, because then their conference record and the tournament would be .500 (10-10), which is enough in the ACC.

4 Syracuse (Big East) 26-9

13 American (Patriot) 24-7

Great run by Syracuse again, but ran out of gas trying to play 4 7/8 games in four days and trying to beat two top-five teams during that run, succeeding once.

They moved up three seeds in my opinion because of this week. American could pull off a shocker if Syracuse can't recover, as had happened two years ago after winning four games in four days.

6 Utah (MWC) 24-9

11 Michigan (Big Ten) 20-13

Michigan's big-time wins gets them in the tournament. I think the committee still remembers when they beat Duke when Duke was playing like the best team in America.

10 top 100 wins and six top 50 wins add up to a good resume, even with 13 losses. Utah will be under-seeded because of a bad loss early, but it wouldn't surprise if me if they were as high as a four-seed. They might move up on the update.

3 Kansas (Big 12) 25-7

14 Akron (MAC) 23-12

Kansas lost a chance to be a two-seed by losing to Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals. They could still make a run, but they are really young, and might fall back into losing early.

Akron is a good team, and relies on tough defense, as they showed in the MAC final against Buffalo, but barely survived Toledo (the worst team in the MAC) in overtime to even get to the MAC final to win.

7 Tennessee (SEC) 21-12

10 Boston College (ACC) 22-11

Tennessee loses a heartbreaker in the championship game of the SEC, but I moved them ahead of Cal anyway. Boston College has three losses against teams not in the RPI top 100, which is a lot for a tournament worthy team, but is 9-7 in the ACC, which gets most teams in.

2 Connecticut (Big East) 27-4

15 East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun) 23-10

Connecticut moves up to a one-seed if Duke loses, and if were healthy as a team, might be a 1-seed anyway.

Jerome Dyson's injury probably cost them a one-seed not too unlike Kenyon Martin costing Cincinnati a one-seed with his injury almost a decade ago. East Tennessee State came back after a short absence, but this time did so without cult hero Tim Smith.

That's my list. Hope you all are more informed than you were minutes ago.

Texas-Missouri: Most Efficient QB Duel in College Football History

Jesse Arendt — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 21:31:41 -0400

In a dream world, or just my own, Texas-Missouri would have been a colossal battle of unstoppable forces meeting in Austin in a Top Three matchup. That would have been the case had both Missouri and Texas won last Saturday.

Oklahoma State threw a spur into those plans, shocking the Tigers to catapult themselves into the top 10, dropping Missouri to No. 11.

However, Texas has now received TWO full weeks of hype, enough to boost the egos of even the humblest of FBS scholarship athletes.

Missouri, on the other hand, now has plenty of motivation, going against the consensus No. 1 team in the nation.

The Tigers are led by a Heisman-caliber QB in Chase Daniel, who Texas spurned to go after Heisman-caliber QB Colt McCoy (turned out pretty well) and Ryan Perrilloux (went to LSU, but that decision also turned out pretty well).

The key matchup between the two top-11 teams is how the unstoppable offenses and their incredible QBs will go against two slightly underrated defenses.

Coming into the season, the main thing that separated Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri (and possibly Texas Tech) from the rest of the Big 12 was that their defenses were, at the very least, above average.

All three teams have solidified that statement by all allowing less than 22 points a game, and by all maintaining a scoring margin greater than 20 points a game.

However, Missouri and Oklahoma now have an L on their schedules after having their unstoppable offenses, well, stopped, at least long enough for their opponents to maintain a lead in the fourth quarter in upset wins.

The Sooners' loss was to Texas, when the Horns took a 38-35 lead in the last ten minutes of the game, and held the Sooners without a point their final two possessions where they needed it the most leading to a 45-35 victory.

The Tigers ran into a surprisingly solid defense in Oklahoma State, forcing Daniel and his offense to their first (and second) three-and-out drives this season.

Then, with less 1:41 remaining, the Cowboys forced Daniel into his third interception of the game (after having one the first five games) and ran out the clock.

Despite his struggles last week (where he did also throw for 390 yards), Daniel is still fifth in the nation in passing efficiency, and leads the third-best scoring offense in the nation.

McCoy, to his credit, is fourth in passing efficiency, and leads the fifth-best scoring offense in the nation.

For those just getting into the Big 12, many matchups will set up like this game, with nationally ranked top-10 scoring offenses in Oklahoma State (#2), Oklahoma (#4), Texas Tech (#6), and Kansas State (#8). Scary.

What makes this game unique outside of Daniel facing the team he grew up wanting to play for (well, besides Graham Harrell, Jerrod Johnson, Todd Reesing, etc.), is that the two QBs are No. 1 and No. 2 in the NCAA in completion percentage (McCoy 79.4 percent, Daniel 76 percent).

While this stat may seem kind of insignificant to a few mentioned above, what makes it a bit more special is that, if their efficient pace continues, then they will be No. 1 and No. 2 in the history of Division I-A/FBS football for completion percentage in a season.

It is now very likely that the record will be broken this season, for two main reasons:

1. As going into conference play usually means the dwindling of stats like completion percentage, McCoy completed 23-of-30 against Colorado (77 percent) and 28-of-35 against then No. 1 Oklahoma (80 percent), actually maintaining his percentage through the first part of the Big 12.

Daniel completed 18-of-23 (78 percent) against Nebraska and 39-of-52 (75 percent) in the loss to then No. 17 Oklahoma State, slightly improving his numbers.

2. The fact that the current record for completion percentage is 73.6%. Daniel, who is over 3.4 percent behind McCoy, is 2.4 percent ahead of the current record holder, who happens to be Daunte Culpepper from his days at Central Florida. Incredible.

That fact in itself makes one appreciate both the ability of the two quarterbacks to find the open receivers in spots where they can get it to them, as well as how much the game has changed over the years to where college QBs can master offenses like the spread.

Now for the game itself, look to see how both defenses try to adjust to handle these QBs.

Oklahoma State had some success against Daniel running twists in the defensive line to get through the Tigers' wide splits and deal with the 7-yard drop that Daniel starts from in the shotgun and still put pressure on the QB while keeping seven, or even eight, defenders in pass coverage.

McCoy is much less effective when he struggles to escape the pocket when his main reads are covered, as Oklahoma demonstrated last week as a main cause of sacking him four times.

Missouri has an advantage in the secondary with a ball-hawker like safety William Moore, while Texas has had a more successful pass-rush, second best in the country led by a probable All-American in Brian Orakpo.

Like all close, hard-fought contests in college football, special teams will have an impact. Missouri has one of the best return men in college football in Jeremy Maclin, as he has four kicks and punts returned for TDs in his 20-game career.

Texas' Jordan Shipley made his presence in special teams felt with his first KR TD since his high school days against Oklahoma. The Longhorns could influence this game by pressuring punts, having blocked or deflected three this season, and getting awfully close to two against Oklahoma.

Both kickers are excellent, though the Tigers' Jeff Woffert, who made 29-of-35 field goals his first two seasons, has already missed four this year, including two costly ones against Oklahoma State.

Texas' kicker, Hunter Lawrence, is new to placekicking duties, but has yet to miss in his college career, making all seven of his field goal attempts.

The top receivers on both sides will get theirs, with Shipley and WR Quan Cosby getting the bulk of the passes from McCoy, and Maclin and TE Chase Coffman getting a lot of looks from Daniel.

The running game could be a factor, as both sides are capable of running the ball (both average over 170 yards per game) but neither are consistent.

Texas had no running luck against Oklahoma in the first half (negative rushing yards), but RB Chris Ogbannaya broke two long runs in the second half on his way to 127 yards in a win.

Missouri couldn't crack the 100-yard mark from the ground against Oklahoma State, and that led to a more one-dimensional offense late in the game that ultimately was unable to come up with a victory. The Tigers' leading rusher, Derrick Washington, only ran for 11 yards in the game.

All in all, the game should be an excellent one, though the hype is not quite as big as it could have been. Still, with two very good teams, and two great QBs, and College Gameday on location, and playing under the lights in 70-degree weather makes for a great night of college football.

Texas Shocks Oklahoma: Instant Reaction

Jesse Arendt — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 10:14:40 -0400

What a fantastic game between the Horns and the Sooners. Texas wins 45-35 in the highest scoring game in the history of the Texas-OU series. Here’s a quick breakdown of what I saw:

Sam Bradford is the best QB I’ve seen in a college game since Matt Leinart. There weren’t many throws he couldn’t make, and he has a ridiculously quick release and is very accurate. He fought to the end, and shredded a (still I think underrated) D for 387 yards and five TDs. Chase Daniel is going to be incredibly tough next week as well, as he might be even better, though that’s hard to say after Bradford’s effort.
Colt McCoy has all the heart, toughness, and savvy you’d ever want in a player, and his effort (277 yards passing, 34 rushing) and resiliency in playing from behind for nearly 40 minutes against the No. 1 team in the country is worthy of praise of legend. I don’t know if UT fans can boo him ever again, unless he gets another concussion, of course. Also, he momentarily makes a three-man race a two-man race, to be decided next week against Chase Daniel. Bradford still could win.
Greg Davis gave his best performance since the Rose Bowl, but also potentially even better, and the best of his Texas career. The four-wide first half usage with Shipley playing in the slot and eating up the middle was not only great, it got OU to back off the line in the second half, opening up huge holes for Ogbannaya. And, he took some early shots down field with solid success. No qualms for him.
Flopping is now officially a part of football, as both Colt McCoy (twice) and OU’s punter sold late-hit penalties that probably shouldn’t have been called. Not thrilled about this.
Texas is now a four-pronged attack, as McCoy (308 total yards), Ogbannaya (127 rush yards), Quan Cosby (122 rec yards) and Jordan Shipley (112 rec yards, KR TD) all were dominant. I started brainstorming for a nickname for the four, and the best one I heard was the Four Hornsmen. I like it, even if it rips off both Notre Dame and the book of Revelation.
Outside of one terrible miscue by Muckelroy and Thomas on the Jermaine Gresham 52-yd TD in the second quarter, the freshman safeties were pretty solid. Earl Thomas made a fantastic interception in the second quarter, and also got a cheap second INT on the last play of the game. He also forced a potential game-changing fumble on a big offensive play that rolled out of bounds. Blake Gideon also was all over the field, making eight tackles. Future is great there.
Penalties KILLED OU. Lots of holding calls to kill plays. The two late hit calls were big on UT drives. There were three or four offsides penalties that may otherwise have hindered drives. Texas only really had one BAD penalty in the running into the kicker for a first down.
Both O-lines were both good and bad. Good in creating chances for big plays on both sides, but both gave up sacks (Texas four, OU three), and neither ran the ball well, save for the two big Ogbannaya runs. Kind of a push both ways.
Red Zone offense was scary good. With the slight aid of the interception that wasn’t by Oklahoma, both teams were perfect in the Red Zone. Texas had four TD and three FG in 7 red-zone visits, while Oklahoma scored four TD on their four visits inside the 20.
Not many games have had as many momentum/game-changing plays. From the hyperspeed offense of OU getting on early, to the KR TD by Shipley, to the Gresham 52-yd TD, to the Thomas INT, to the fake punt stop, to the running into the kicker penalty, to Ogbannaya finally breaking a big gain. Incredible.
Cody Johnson looked like a modern day Refrigerator Perry despite being a running back himself, running three times for three TD. Roy Miller’s TD drop was both heartbreaking and humorous, as having a 300-pounder with a TD in and out of his hands was tough. But, no harm, no foul, as on second down Johnson had his third TD.
The two battles I watched the most was Brian Orakpo against Phil Loadholt, which Orakpo dominated, with six tackles, four for a loss, and two sacks, even hurrying Bradford into an easy sack by Sergio Kindle, and Roddrick Muckelroy against Jermaine Gresham, which Gresham won with a dominant five reception, 90 yard, 1 TD performance in a losing effort. Muckelroy did finish with a team-high 14 tackles.

Overall, a great week for the University of Texas, with a huge win over a No. 1 team and rival, and with the basketball commitment of top-15 recruit Jordan Hamilton, a sweet-shooting 6-foot-7 forward from Compton on Thursday.

UT-Mizzou should be nearly as big (barring OK State shocking Mizzou), and it will be Heisman front-runner duel part two with Daniel and McCoy. Great game.

What Texas (and Oklahoma) Fans Should Watch for in the Red River Rivalry

Jesse Arendt — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 22:49:15 -0400

The Texas Longhorns-Oklahoma Sooners rivalry has been battled since 1900, and has lived through some great moments.

In recent memory, Sooner fans will remember Roy Williams diving over the line to help create a game-deciding interception in a 2001 victory.

Texas fans will remember Rodrique Wright in a sundial-timed sprint to the end zone in a 45-12 bashing on its way to a 2005 National Championship.

Here's a hint of what to expect Saturday in the Red River Rivalry/Shootout/Battle of I-35/Battle for the Golden Hat/Border War (further South edition):

Corn dogs. Lots and lots of corn dogs. The State Fair is in town for its annual celebration, which always runs simultaneous to the game. Expect a long, unexpected list of things being fried that you never thought would be fried (like Coke balls, Twinkies).
Tunnel mishaps. Both teams enter from the same side, and there's always a shouting match, often harmless, but shoving is allowed.
Hype. Although it's been four years since both teams could claim top-10 worthiness, there's always been a lot of hype about the game. Some of which is worth it. They are typically the top two programs of the Southwestern United States, and both teams have national championships this decade. However, there has only been one game in the Brown-Stoops era that has been decided by less than 10 points. Fortunately, that was last year.
Favoritism. As in, the last nine times the two teams have met, the team that entered the game ranked higher has won. Also, the team that wins the turnover battle has won each game, and that's probably only slightly coincidental (Texas and OU have combined for 10 turnovers in 10 games this season).
How much philosophies matter. Two head coaches who do it two very different ways both have established themselves as one of the best coaches in their respective program's history. Stoops is only behind Bud Wilkinson's three national titles and Barry Switzer's two and a half, with Stoops having coached six fewer seasons than either. Brown is one of only two UT coaches to win a title, with Darrell K. Royal winning the other two and a half. Stoops has been known as the hard-edge, disciplinarian type, while Brown has been the protective, CEO-manager type. It's worked for both.
Big game troubles. Stoops has gotten a lot of flak for losing four consecutive BCS games, but has done well enough to win three Big 12 titles, and play in the BCS title game the other year during those years, which doesn't include an 8-4 season in 2005. Brown has always been criticized as one who couldn't win the big game, having lost five consecutive games to Stoops from 2000-2004. Brown had a brief hiatus from the moniker with the national championship in 2005 and taking down OU again in 2006. Brown has won his last four bowl games, but losing opportunities to play in the Big 12 championship with regular season-ending losses to Texas A&M the past two seasons have started to creep the big-game issues with Brown back to the surface, citing Vince Young as the reason for the brief ability to win big games. Obviously, both would enjoy the win.
The QBs. Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy: both Top Five Heisman candidates right now, both in the top 4 in passing efficiency, both ridiculously churning up stats (20 TD accounted for by each player in the first five games), turning it over rarely (three turnovers each), and getting sacked rarely (three times for Bradford, five times for McCoy). Bradford won Round 1 in 2007, 28-21, and upstaged McCoy's great offensive season in 2006 by breaking his freshman passing TD mark in 2007. McCoy had a subpar season last year, throwing for fewer TDs (29 to 22) and more INTs (7 to 18). Bradford has had no such sophomore slump. Bradford's thrown for more yards (1,665 to 1,280), but McCoy has run for more (317 to -23) and completed a higher percentage (an NCAA best 79.2 percent to a fifth-best 72.6 percent).
The underrated D's. What makes OU and UT different is how sneaky good both defenses are. OU is first in the nation in pass efficiency defense, and has not allowed any QB to throw for 225 yards in a game this season. Texas is third in the nation in run defense, giving up barely over 50 yards a game. Heck, both teams are giving up fewer than 14 points per game, going 1-2 in the conference in scoring defense.
The bizarrely similar stats. Texas and OU have been equally dominant in a surprising number of categories. They are tied in first in the nation in scoring margin (35.8 per game). They are two of only three teams (C-USA's Tulsa is the other) to have yet to play a game within 20 points. OU's closest win was 25 against TCU; UT's closest was 24 against Colorado (Tulsa's closest was 23 against UAB). The teams are both in the top 10 in red zone offense, with Oklahoma being perfect (24 scores in 24 opportunities) while Texas has been pretty darn close (25 of 26). Both teams are in the top 15 nationally in red zone defense, Texas at 53 percent and OU at 64 percent. Both are deadly efficient at third-down conversions. Texas is a little bit better on offense (UT-52 percent, OU-49 percent) and Oklahoma's a bit better on defense (OU-27 percent, UT 31 percent). Both teams are fantastic at sacking the QB, with UT No. 1 in the nation at 3.8 sacks a game, and OU No. 3 at 3.4. Ironically both teams are bad (No. 93 and No. 104) at kickoff coverage, each giving up over 23 yards per return. Both teams average 27 first downs a game (top 5 in the nation). Both teams are great in passing efficiency as teams (top 5 in the nation). Both teams are not satisfied in their run game (four combined 100-yard games) or comfortable in their backup QBs (Joey Halzle is 14-of-22 with 1 TD, but little faith, and John Chiles is 9-of-10 for 81 yards, but 2 lost fumbles and zero faith).
The kicking game will matter. If OU, the 6.5-point favorite, loses, the kicking game will have something to do with it. Special teams have a lot to do with the fact that while OU both gains more yards and allows fewer than Texas the margin is the same. While both struggle in kick coverage, UT has been perfect in both extra points and field goals (all three attempts), OU has attempted only one FG and missed two extra points. Texas has allowed four less yards per punt return, a pretty small amount, but the net punting difference is nine yards (40.6 to 31.6). Texas has already blocked three punts this season.
Weapons gain. A big part of OU being the favorite is the large number of people that can gain yards. Oklahoma has two RBs with over 300 yards rushing this season (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown) while Texas has one QB (McCoy) and zero RBs over even 200. OU has four receivers over 250 yards receiving (Manuel Johnson, Joaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham, and Ryan Broyles) while Texas has two (Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley, though RB Chris Ogbannaya is close with 244). TE is the big mismatch, as Texas will only have available three TEs who have a combined 17 yards receiving this season after original starting TE Blaine Irby was knocked out for the season with a knee injury. OU, meanwhile, has Gresham, one of the top five TE in the country.
Matchups. There's a lot of them. Two great D-Lines against two very good O-lines, though many Oklahoma fans will say their line is great, which it probably is. Oklahoma's O-line has four seniors and a ton of experience, while Texas' O-line has one senior and a slowly growing amount of experience. A specific one to watch is OU LT Phil Loadholt (all 6-foot-8, 337 pounds of him) against Big 12 sack leader and UT DE Brian Orakpo. Oklahoma's WR against UT's secondary will be a huge matchup, as there is a ton of youth for Texas, with two freshmen and a sophomore making up 3/4 of the group. Protecting the deep ball will be a key point. Gresham will be his own nightmare matchup, as he will likely go up against UT's leading tackler in Roddrick Muckelroy. The underproducing RB groups will be a fun matchup as they go up against two very talented, fast, and disciplined LB corps. And, of course, McCoy vs. Bradford.
The Cotton Bowl. It's now been renovated to look like a bigtime college stadium now, with over 92,000 seats. And the big split at the 50-yard line with burnt orange on one side and crimson on the other.

My neutral view thinks OU's got the edge, but my alma mater view is rooting for the Horns. We'll see what happens. Enjoy the game.

Tourney Time for the Texas Longhorns: Week One, Little Rock

Jesse Arendt — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 20:37:18 -0400

The Texas Longhorns enter the tournament with one of the best teams they've had in the Rick Barnes era, and considering where they'll be playing, the Horns probably have the second-best team in terms of the path they will take on the road to the Final Four.

Texas, with the loss to Kansas last Sunday in the Big 12 Championship Game (for the thirrd consecutive year), was named a #2 seed in the South Region, which actually was a better announcement than being a #1 seed in the Midwest. Why? Texas plays the first 2 rounds in Little Rock, Arkansas (a 7-8 hour drive, not bad for the NCAAs), then plays the regionals (assuming they are not upset on Friday or Sunday) in Houston, as opposed to Ford Field in Detroit (about 1,400 miles away as opposed to 150). Playing Memphis as the estimated Elite Eight teams wouldn't be much different than playing Georgetown, who probably would have more home-court advantage in Detroit than even Kansas, let alone Texas.

For the first round, Texas is playing Austin Peay, the OVC champions. They have been hot as of late, winning 11 of their final 12 games, though their biggest win was against Georgia Southern during the run. They did play both Vanderbilt and Memphis in the regular season, losing to Vandy by 14 and the Tigers by 22. Texas will probably somewhere within that realm, and if they lose, would be among the five biggest upsets in NCAA tournament history (especially since they'd be the fifth 2-seed to lose in the first round). I doubt that will happen and Texas should cruise.

The Governors (yes, that is the Peay's mascot) are a very balanced team, with five players scoring in double figures, all between 10.9 and 14.6 points a game. They are a running team as well, scoring 74.6 a game and forcing almost ten steals per contest. However, they only play one player above 6-6, Tomas Janauskas, and the 6-8 center only plays 3 minutes a contest. Texas potential size issues when playing 3 guards under 6-2 as they typcially do will not be a factor in this game.

The next game will be against either the Miami Hurricanes or Saint Mary's from the West Coast Conference. Matching up against St. Mary's will be a bit surprising, as Texas already played the Gaels at home early January in what Horns coach Rick Barnes cited as one of the best performances by his team this season in an 81-62 blowout. The second matchup would probably be closer, as the Arkansas crowd will likely feature enough Razorback backers that remember the SWC days with the Horns enough to back the 10-seed underdogs should they matchup with Texas.

I still think the Longhorns would win, relatively comfortable, probably around ten or so. Many analysts would hype the point guard matchup between First-team All-American D.J. Augustin and talented freshman Patrick Mills, though in the first meeting, Texas completely shut down Mills to the tune of 12 points, one assist, and five turnovers, while Augustin finished with 30 points and four assists.

However, I think the matchup would be a lot more interesting if the Hurricanes faced off against Texas in the second round. The matchup would be the team's first since 1989, where Texas won 123-104 in Austin. While the score will undoubtedly not be that expansive, the game could be closer than people think for one major wild card: Frank Haith. Haith is the head coach of Miami, but what a lot of casual observers don't know is that Haith was the Associate Head Coach for Rick Barnes during the team's Final Four run in 2003, before heading off to take the head job in Miami, where he got the program back to the NCAAs after a six-year hiatus.

The 'Canes also score about 75 a game and are typically a quick shooting team, though they only shot 44% from the field this year. Miami is a much deeper team than any of Texas' other potential first weekend opponents, playing nine guys at least 14 minutes a game. Jack McClinton is the go-to guy for the Hurricanes, scoring 17 a game and is a similar quality 3-point shooter as AJ Abrams, making nearly 3 threes a game and shooting 43% from behind-the-arc. However, Miami's inconsistent play and streaky shooting mean a likely nod in the Horns favor, though the wild card of Haith's knowledge of Barnes and the Texas system (which is still quite a bit different from four years ago) might give Miami a puncher's chance.

If Texas is going to make a deep run in this tournament, there will need to be some unsung heroes that can make an impact to boost Texas when the typical stars of Augustin, AJ Abrams, and Damion James can not get it done on their own. In the Final Four run of 2003 and the Elite Eight run of 2006, several less heralded players were deeply important to helping Texas continue its season:

2003: 1st R vs UNC-Asheville: Brian Boddicker 14 pts, 12 rebs off bench

2nd R vs Purdue: Deginald Erskin scores 11 points in 15 minutes

Sweet 16 vs UConn: James Thomas goes up against future partial POY Emeka Okafor and has 13 pts and 15 rebounds, Texas wins by 4.

Elite 8 vs Michigan St: Sydmill Harris and Boddicker combine for 27 off the bench in a nine-point win.

2006: 2nd R vs NC State: freshman backup PG AJ Abrams scores 16 points and has 5 assists in 75-54 win.

Sweet 16 vs W Virginia: Mike Williams has 9 points and 7 rebounds off the bench, and Kenton Paulino his a GW 3 as time experiences to win 74-71.

Elite 8 vs LSU: Senior Brad Buckman, delegated to the fourth-option with stars PJ Tucker, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Daniel Gibson taking a lot of shots, scores 13 points and grabs 14 rebounds, including a hustle play that kept a play alive that allowed Gibson to hit an OT-forcing 3.

There's a few role players that could fit, whether Justin Mason and Connor Atchley, both starters but not necessarily offensive weapons (though Atchley has been changing that idea slowly during the season). The 4-post crew coming off the bench, featuring freshmen Gary Johnson, Alexis Wangmene, Clint Chapman, and sophomore Dexter Pittman all may have a game where their low-post scoring is key to the game.

Texas' expectations, which coming into the season would have been, at best, a Sweet 16 appearance is now nothing less than a Final Four run. I would believe their season is a success if they make it to the Elite Eight and play down to the wire, especially if the opponent is Memphis, but also in general. The team could very easily make some noise over the next three weeks.

The Recap in the Quest to Out-Pick Joe Lunardi

Jesse Arendt — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 12:31:48 -0400

So, the brackets are out, and now it’s time to see if my quest was successful. There were two matchups we set up, the who gets more teams in contest, and the “who called the seeds better,” contest.

Joe wins the first matchup on getting teams in, props to him, getting Villanova over Illinois St, both of us said Arizona St out. Joe goes 65 for 65. I go 64 for 65. Most others I looked at were 64 of 65. Now for the numbers game… here’s the breakdown.

(NOTE: I didn’t charge him points for Villanova off one, because I picked Illinois St, so no points either way for the teams that were different in the in/not in contest.)

In order of East (1), Midwest (4), South (2), West (3)

Actual: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA

Me: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA (perfect, 0 pts)

Joe: UNC, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA (perfect, 0 pts)

Actual: Tennessee, Georgetown, Texas, Duke

Me: Georgetown, Tennessee, Texas, Duke (all teams right, 0 pts)

Joe: Georgetown, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin (3)(1 pt)

Actual: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Xavier

Me: Stanford, Xavier, Louisville, Wisconsin (all right, 0 pts)

Joe: Xavier, Stanford, Pitt (4), Duke (2) (2 pts) (3-0 me)

Actual: Washington St, Vanderbilt, Pitt, UConn

Me: Vanderbilt, Michigan St (5), UConn, Drake (5) 2 pts

Joe: Drake (5), Notre Dame (5), Clemson (5), Louisville (3), 4 pts (7-2 me)

Actual: Notre Dame, Clemson, Michigan St, Drake

Me: Marquette (6), Butler (7), Washington St (4), Pitt (4) 5 pts

Joe: UConn (4), Michigan St, Indiana (8), Butler (7) 6 pts (13-7 me)

Actual: Oklahoma, USC, Marquette, Purdue

Me: Purdue, Indiana (8), Clemson (5), Notre Dame (5) 4 pts

Joe: Wash St (4), Marquette, Purdue, Vanderbilt (4) 4 pts (17-11 me)

Actual: Butler, Gonzaga, Miami-FL, W Virginia

Me: BYU (8), W Virginia, Gonzaga, Arkansas (8) 2 pts

Joe: Texas A&M (9), Oklahoma (6), USC (6), Arkansas (8) 5 pts (22-13 I’m up)

Actual: Indiana, UNLV, Mississippi St, BYU

Me: Kent St (9), USC (6), Oklahoma (6), Texas A&M (9) 6 pts

Joe: UNLV, Gonzaga (7), W Virginia (7), BYU 2 pts (24-19 I’m up)

Actual: Arkansas, Kent St, Oregon, Texas A&M

Me: Kansas St (11), Miami-FL (7), UNLV (8), Miss St (8) 6 pts

Joe: Kent St, Miss St (8), Davidson (10), Kansas St (11) 4 pts (28-25 I’m up)

Actual: S Alabama, Davidson, St Mary’s, Arizona

Me: St Mary’s, Oregon (9), Baylor (11), S Alabama 2 pts

Joe: Kentucky (11), Miami-FL (7), S Alabama, St Mary’s 4 pts (32-27 I’m up)

Actual: St Joseph’s, Kansas St, Kentucky, Baylor

Me: Temple (12), Illinois St (incorrect), Kentucky, Arizona (10) 2 pts

Joe: W Kentucky (12), St Joseph’s, Temple (12), Villanova (correct), 2 pts (34-29 I’m up)

Actual: George Mason, Villanova, Temple, W Kentucky

Me: Davidson (10), Oral Roberts (13), St Joseph’s (11), W Kentucky 4 pts

Joe: Oregon (9), Arizona (10), Baylor (11), Georgia (14) 8 pts (42-33 I’m up)

Actual: Winthrop, Siena, Oral Roberts, San Diego

Me: Siena, G Mason (12), Cornell (14), Boise St (14) 3 pts

Joe: Oral Roberts, G Mason (12), Siena, Cornell (14) 2 pts (44-36 I’m up)

Actual: Boise St, CS-Fullerton, Cornell, Georgia

Me: Georgia, CS-Fullerton, Austin Peay (15), San Diego (13) 2 pts

Joe: CS-Fullerton, Boise St, Winthrop (13), San Diego (13) 2 pts (46-38 I’m up)

Actual: American, UMBC, Austin Peay, Belmont

Me: American, Belmont, Winthrop (13), UMBC 2 pts

Joe: UMBC, Austin Peay, Belmont, Por St (16) 1 pt (47-40 I’m up)

Actual: Mount St Mary’s/Coppin St, Portland St, UT-Arlington, MVSU

Me: MVSU/Coppin St, Mt St Mary’s, Portland St, UT-Arlington

Joe: American (15), UT-Arlington, Coppin St/MVSU, Mt St Mary’s 1 pt

oe is 48 seeds off, I am 40. I beat Joe in that department.

Joe’s still real good.

Apologies to the Winthrop supporters who berated me for putting them so low. I was wrong.

I also compared the seed department with the two other bracket predictors on bleacher report, Jordan Schwartz, Chris Copeland and David Cassilo.

With the one by Schwartz, he also picked 64, but was off 45 on seeds, which was very good. Cassilo also picked 64 teams, and was off 48 on seeds. Copeland picked 64 teams, and was off 42 seeds (assuming Georgia would have been correct and moved up the right teams, so really like 42-45, but we'll say 42).

So for those who think the Bleacher Report people can't pick like the experts, they're dead wrong.

I might look at a lot of other "expert" brackets and compare their seeds off to mine, since I think I did pretty good. Gary Parrish from cbssportsline.com picked 64 teams and was 44 seeds off. The best one I've seen was the bracketology blog at www.bracketology101.blogspot.com who got 64 teams and only 29 seeds off.

Thanks to all who took the time to read.

The Quest to Beat Joe Lunardi: Pickin' the NCAA bracket (Final Edition)

Jesse Arendt — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 10:37:07 -0400

So, having heard all the guys at ESPN talk about the greatness of Joe Lunardi, I wanted to see, putting up 10 days of hard work into it (starting last Friday, March 7), to see if I could be close, or even better. So what I'm going to do is list the 65 teams in an outline for a basic list, then go in ridiculous detail underneath in matchup form to explain why. Hopefully, it'll be informative, if not put people to sleep. I also will try to update each day, though the info for the teams won't change much day-to-day unless moved or played. My basic info of use is RPI, Strength of schedule, and record vs RPI top 100, as well as generic record/conference type/conference record setup. Since I didn't feel like spending money on ESPN's InsideRPI, I used the daily RPI from Ken Pomeroy's website at www.kenpom.com/rpi.

Lots to discuss, and still a few adjustment possibilities today, sure to make the committee thrilled. Today I’m just going to break down everything that changed, you’ve probably had enough of the 65 team 5,000 word sleepfest.

The way this quest will work is I will compare my bracket with Joe’s (and others if I feel like doing so) on two items: Which teams are in (out of 65, probably will be within like 4), and how close to getting actual seeds. We’ll do one point per seed off (so 6 instead of 5 is 1 point, 9 instead of 7 is 2, etc; lower score wins), and see what happens. One thing’s for sure, I have a heck of a lot more respect for him doing this all year, I’m pretty drained.

What Sunday did to my bracket:

UNC solidifies one-seed with win, Clemson stays at 6 with good showing.
UT-Arlington is officially in with Southland conference title over Northwestern St
Kansas takes the Midwest #1 from Texas with a win, Texas moves to #2 in South. Heck of a game though.
Wisconsin cruises, knocking Illinois out, and putting them as the best #3, but not above Duke in my mind.
Georgia takes Villanova out of the tournament with shocker, moves to #14, Boise St goes up to #13, Oral Roberts up to #12

Going by seed in East, Midwest, South, West order (official conference champs in bold)

The Final Bracket:

1. North Carolina, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA

2. Georgetown, Tennessee, Texas, Duke

3. Stanford, Xavier, Louisville, Wisconsin

4. Vanderbilt, Mich St, UConn, Drake

5. Marquette, Butler, Wash St, Pitt

6. Purdue, Indiana, Clemson, Notre Dame

7. BYU, West Virginia, Gonzaga, Arkansas

8. Kent St, USC, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

9. Kansas St, Miami-FL, UNLV, Mississippi St

10. St. Mary’s, Oregon, Baylor, S Alabama

11. Temple, Illinois St, Kentucky, Arizona

12. Davidson, Oral Roberts, St Joseph’s , W Kentucky

13. Siena, Boise St, Cornell, George Mason

14. Georgia, Cal St Fullerton, Austin Peay, San Diego

15. American, Belmont, Winthrop, UMBC

16. (Play-in) Miss Valley St/Coppin St (new), Mount St Mary's, Portland St, UT-Arlington

The Quest to Beat Joe Lunardi: Pickin' the NCAA Bracket (Sunday AM edition)

Jesse Arendt — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 04:44:42 -0400

Hopefully, it'll be informative, if not put people to sleep. I also will try to update each day, though the info for the teams won't change much day-to-day unless moved or played. My basic info of use is RPI, Strength of schedule, and record vs RPI top 100, as well as generic record/conference type/conference record setup. Since I didn't feel like spending money on ESPN's InsideRPI, I used the daily RPI from Ken Pomeroy's website at www.kenpom.com/rpi.

The way this quest will work is I will compare my bracket with Joe’s (and others if I feel like doing so) on two items: Which teams are in (out of 65, probably will be within like four), and how close to getting actual seeds. We’ll do one point per seed off (so six instead of five is one point, nine instead of seven is two, etc; lower score wins), and see what happens. One thing’s for sure, I have a heck of a lot more respect for him doing this all year, I’m pretty drained.

Going by seed in East, Midwest, South, West order (official conference champs in bold, estimated champs in all CAPS).

Through games of March 15:

1. NORTH CAROLINA, TEXAS (+1), Memphis, UCLA

2. Georgetown, Kansas, Tennessee (-1), Duke

3. Stanford, Xavier, Louisville, WISCONSIN

4. Vanderbilt, Mich St, UConn, Drake (+1)

5. Marquette (-1), Butler, Wash St (+1), Pitt (+1)

6. Purdue (+1), Indiana (-1), Clemson, Notre Dame (-1)

7. BYU (no caps) (-1), West Virginia, Gonzaga, ARKANSAS (+2),

8. KENT ST, USC (no caps) (+1), Oklahoma (-1), Texas A&M

9. Kansas St, Miami-FL (-1), UNLV (-1), Mississippi St

10. St. Mary’s (-1), Oregon (+1), Baylor (+1), S Alabama

11. Illinois St (-1), Kentucky (-1), Temple (new), Arizona

12. Davidson, Villanova, St Joseph’s , W Kentucky

13. Siena, George Mason, Cornell (+1), Oral Roberts

14. Boise St (-1), Cal St Fullerton, Austin Peay, San Diego

15. American, Belmont, Winthrop, UMBC

16. (Play-in) Miss Valley St/Coppin St (new), Mount St Mary's, Portland St, UT-ARLINGTON

Let’s make this breakdown in bulletpoints:

Georgia (15-16 record,108 RPI,43 SOS) can steal an at-large (which will be Villanova before St Joe’s) with a win over Arkansas Sunday afternoon, which would be hilarious if the game ends at like 5:50 ET with the announcements at 6:00. Big risk.
Illinois (16-18,103,30) would do the same (and St Joe’s is the next one out… so the A-10 could have four at 1:00 PM (if UMass is in, though in mine they are not), and two by the time the field’s announced. Odd that two power conference teams go that far especially when so bad, with neither Illinois nor Georgia even NIT worthy since under .500, but could get in NCAAs tomorrow.
I had a tough time with my four teams at the at-large precipice with the St Joe’s (21-12,45,53), Villanova (20-12,51,48), Virginia Tech (19-13,53,38), and Ohio St (19-13,49,1), who all seem to be in thick of at-large discussion. I decided to decide by just putting together their record against NCAA worthy teams, and each other (so St Joe’s beating Villanova counted). St Joe’s was 7-4 (and lost to Syracuse), Ohio State 4-9 (though two were Coppin St and UMBC), Villanova was 5-7, and Virginia Tech was 1-7, with that one being Miami Thursday. Ohio St and Va Tech were out. Then I checked UMass(21-10,43,71), who I had safely in, and they were 0-5 (though with wins over Dayton and Syracuse, others very close to the bubble), so I dropped them to the last one out behind Nova, since they still did go 10-6 in the apparently excellent A-10. I will probably flip a coin at about 15 minutes before they announce for my last minute final bracket to use for our guessing game.
Temple (21-12,48,50) gets in with win over St Joe’s Saturday, great run for team that were ignored but probably one of the 10 best teams out at the beginning of the tourney, and played in the hard way.
Other champions made Saturday are: Memphis, UCLA, Pitt (4 wins in 4 days, conclude with win over Georgetown), UNLV (somewhat surprising over BYU), Kent St, Boise St (in a great 3 OT game I watched about an hour worth of), Cal-St Fullerton (easily), UM-Baltimore County (really easily, impressive, but still 14-15), and my current two play-in game teams: Mississippi Valley St (15-15,229,315), and Coppin St (14-20,227,259), who also happens to be the first 20-loss team ever in the tournament. That’s kind of sad.
Texas jumps Tennessee for the other number one, despite the fact Tennessee still is number one in RPI and SOS, and almost always that team is a one-seed. Tennessee didn’t win their conference tourney, and Memphis and UCLA did. Also, if Kansas beats Texas, then Kansas and Texas will switch spots.
Arkansas jumped up a lot this weekend, especially after Tennessee win, probably won’t move anymore, but noteworthy.
UNLV dropped despite winning because I was looking at how the committee treated them last year, giving them a seven-seed (which I had them at this year), except that last year their RPI was 10, and this year it’s 24, so there’s now way they’d be a seven, and probably not an eight either, so I put them at nine.
Quick breakdown of the last five games Sunday:
Clemson vs UNC: UNC is number one seed either way. Clemson would move from a six to a five with a win and switch with Washington St.
UT-Arlington vs Northwestern St: Either winner will be a #16 seed, neither expected to be in final in the first place. I’m pretty sure 99 percent of people watching college basketball at 1:00 ET will be watching the ACC game.
Texas vs Kansas: Winner gets number one seed, loser doesn’t. Should be fun, Kansas eeked out energetic Texas A&M team, Texas destroyed OU (surprising even to me who’ve seen them in person like 20 times this year).
Georgia vs Arkansas: Potential rut in the system if Georgia wins. Arkansas probably stuck at seven-seed. Huge game for St Joe’s and Villanova’s at-large hopes. Georgia would be a #14 seed if get in on my bracket.
Illinois vs Wisconsin: I don’t think Wisconsin will be a number two seed, mostly because they don’t have top-10 RPI and won’t by beating #103 RPI Illinois. Illinois has same situation of Georgia. I would put them at #14 seed if win, and move Boise St up first, then Cal St Fullerton if both the Bulldogs and the Illini win up to #13, and Oral Roberts then George Mason up to 12. Contingency plan is set.

That’s it for the breakdown. Thanks a lot to all who read, and I will update with just the bracket part hopefully long enough before the announcement that it can be viewed legitimately and I won’t be cheating. If I don’t, use the breakdown here. Should be fine though.

The Quest to Beat Joe Lunardi: Pickin' the NCAA Tournament Bracket

Jesse Arendt — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 07:19:43 -0400

So what I'm going to do is list the 65 teams in an outline for a basic list, then go in ridiculous detail underneath in match-up form to explain why.

Hopefully, it'll be informative, if not put people to sleep. I also will try to update each day, though the info for the teams won't change much day-to-day unless moved or played.

My basic info of use is RPI, Strength of schedule, and record vs RPI top 100, as well as generic record/conference type/conference record setup. Since I didn't feel like spending money on ESPN's InsideRPI, I used the daily RPI from Ken Pomeroy's website.

Going by seed in East, Midwest, South, West order (official conference champs in bold, estimated champs in all CAPS).

Through games of March 11...

1. NORTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, MEMPHIS, UCLA (in caps)

2. Kansas, Duke, TEXAS, GEORGETOWN

3. Louisville, Vanderbilt, UConn, WISCONSIN

4. Indiana, Stanford, XAVIER, Drake

5. Notre Dame, Marquette, Butler, Mich St

6. BYU (in caps), Purdue, Clemson, Wash St

7. Gonzaga, Pitt, UNLV(not caps), Miami-FL

8. Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas St

9. USC (no caps), St Mary's, Arkansas, Mississippi St

10. UMass, KENT ST, Illinois St, Texas A&M

11. Ohio St, Arizona, South Alabama, Kentucky

12. Davidson, W Kentucky, Villanova, New Mexico

13. NEVADA, George Mason, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, Oral Roberts

14. Cornell, Siena, UCSB (in caps), San Diego

15. AMERICAN, Belmont, Austin Peay, UMBC (in caps)

16. (Play-in) ALABAMA ST/SACRED HEART, MORGAN ST, PORTLAND

ST, Winthrop

Just out: Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Dayton, UAB, Oregon, Florida, VCU, Maryland, Arizona St., St. Joe's, Houston

Breakdowns

East

1. North Carolina: 29-2, RPI 2, SOS 4, ACC #1
Good: 9-1 vs RPI top 50, 19 wins vs top 100, most in nation, more good wins than given credit for, especially over mid-seeds like Davidson, BYU, Ohio St, Kentucky, Nevada, and Kent St., not to mention conference wins over Duke(split), Clemson (twice) and Miami.
Bad: Loss to Maryland, only top 20 win this year was last week against Duke. Lots of good wins, few great wins.
Why at seed: too many good wins, RPI 2, ACC regular season champ

16a. Alabama St: 16-9, 193, 338, SWAC est. champ

Not going to say much on them, except estimated to be champ in the worst conference in Division 1.

16b. Sacred Heart: 18-13, 158, 225, NEC est. champ

Playing Mount St. Mary's in NEC finals, both teams shocked top-two teams in conference (Robert Morris and Wagner), winner of that game gets in play-in game.

8. Oklahoma: 21-10, 25, 10, Big 12 #3
Good: Great turnaround from struggling last year. Jeff Capel's done great job, and Blake Griffin's been huge. Good conference run at 9-7, wins over Baylor twice and Texas A&M. Beat West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arkansas as well.
Bad: Three conference losses, though all to current NCAA teams (Memphis, USC, and SFA), but bad conference losses at Colorado and Nebraska.
Why seed: Mix of good and bad wins, but probably third-best team in five or six bid conference puts them there. 10 top-100 wins always should get in.

9. USC: 20-10, 31, 14, Pac-10 #4
Good: Won Five of last six, including dominant win over Stanford. Also solid wins over Oklahoma, Arizona, and UCLA. Also went down to the wire against Kansas and Memphis.
Bad: Couple bad losses, against Cal and a completely horrible one against No. 313 Mercer.
Why seed: Got themselves safely in with two big wins this week. 11 top-100 wins always appreciated. Could still move up.

5. Notre Dame: 24-6, 19, 79, Big East #4
Good: Only one of six losses against team not in NCAAs (Ga Tech), dominant home team, beat Kansas St., Villanova, Syracuse, Pitt, Marquette, UConn, and West Virginia.
Bad: Not as good on road, only 7-6 in road/neutral games.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, Big East has been getting bumps up by the committee, so about right for them, not real good away from home may hurt them in tourney.

12. Davidson: 25-6, 40, 132, Southern Champion
Good: Played tough opponents close, UNC loss by 4, Duke loss by 6, and UCLA by 12. Won 22 straight.
Bad: No wins over top 100 teams, would have kept them out of the tourney in my view.
Seeded here because bubble team if hadn't won conference, would have been here if in anyway.

4. Indiana: 25-6, 17, 58, Big Ten #2
Good: Five of six losses all against top 15 teams, big wins over Purdue, Michigan St. in conference, Illinois St and Kentucky non-conference.
Bad: Loss to Penn St. last week was awful. Kelvin Sampson issue always a problem. Besides that, not too much.
Why seed: 10 top-100 wins always good, seemed to do OK post-Kelvin Sampson to maintain high seed.

13. Nevada: 19-10, 77, 136, WAC auto guess

Only chance of getting in will be winning the WAC. New Mexico St. and Utah State would probably be here as well if win, and Boise St would probably be a 14. All four of those teams finished 12-4 in conference play.

6. BYU: 25-6, 22, 99, MWC est champ (#1)
Good: Dominant home team as well, class of MWC, great non-conference run. Beat Louisville in Vegas, and played both UNC and Michigan St. to the wire. Also, beat New Mexico twice and split with UNLV in conference.
Bad: Really not too many great wins, 5-6 against top 100 teams, could drop in seed.
Why seed: Lots of wins, solid conference, and matched up well in non-conference tourney in Vegas. If go anywhere this week, it would be down.

11. Ohio St: 19-12, 48, 21, Big Ten #5
Good: Big finish, beat Michigan St and Purdue, beat Syracuse and Florida in non-conference.

Bad: Not in comfortably, need to make Big Ten semis to get comfortable. Very much on bubble.
Why seed: Barely in, but seven top 100 wins and tough schedule, so might help. Committee also seems to love Big Ten anyway. Still could be out if lose to Mich St. in Big Ten quarters.

3. Louisville: 24-7, 11, 6, Big East #2
Good: 14-4 against the Big East always applauded. Road win at UNLV, Also beat Kentucky and had solid non-conference run. Conference wins include Marquette twice, Georgetown (split), Pitt, Notre Dame, and Villanova. Won nine of last 10.
Bad: Lost 3 non-conference games (BYU, Dayton, Purdue) though all good teams, two (relatively) bad Big East losses to Cincinnati and Seton Hall.
Why seed: Hot team besides three point loss at G'Town this past weekend, can push for No. 2 if win tournament. Can drop with another loss, but probably safe at No. 3.

14. Cornell: 21-5, 67, 261, Ivy champion

In automatically as Ivy league champ, top 70 RPI gets them a bit higher than typical for Ivy teams. Only top 100 win was over MAAC champ Siena.

7. Gonzaga: 25-7, 30, 95, WCC #2
Good: solid non-conference schedule, wins over Western Kentucky, Virginia Tech, UConn, and was the regular season champ in the WCC, advancing to the finals.
Bad: Couldn't seal deal, lots of non-conference losses, though most good, also included Texas Tech.
Why seed: 7-7 against top 100, lots of high quality games for WCC team, but couldn't finish off WCC champ, so probably stuck around here.

10. Massachusetts: 21-9, 41, 66, A-10 #2
Good: Won six in a row, beat Syracuse and Houston non-conference, and beat Dayton and Rhode Island twice in the A-10. 6-6 vs top 100.
Bad: Three bad losses to Northern Iowa, St Louis, and Fordham (home). Lost most of their tougher non-conference games, including IUPUI and Vanderbilt.
Why seed: In by a little now, A-10 very good conference, should get some credit, but mid-major upsets and poor conference performance could hurt them, even on the bubble. Scheduled fairly tough non-conference.

2. Kansas: 27-3, 8, 63, Big 12 #2
Good: Lots of big wins, no losses outside of the top 100, all of those also true road games. Beat Arizona and USC non-conference. Also beat Oklahoma,Baylor, Texas A&M and Kansas St (split) in Big 12 play.
Bad: Not anything huge, but road loss to Oklahoma State keeping them down a little right now, also "only" 15 games against top 100 teams, little less than those above them.
Why seed: Lots of big wins, but not real tough non-conference schedule keeps them from No. 1 seed jump, can still get there if win Big 12 tournament.

15. American: 20-11, 92, 161, Patriot auto guess

Predicted in NCAAs as Patriot champ due to 10-4 conference record and highest RPI in conference, in the championship game as of now. Beat Maryland at Maryland in December.

Midwest

1. Tennessee: 27-3, 1, 1, SEC #1
Good: Lots of it. RPI 1, SOS 1, NCAA high 11 wins against top 50 teams, 14-2 against dominant conference, only team to beat Memphis, beat West Virginia, Xavier, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Memphis non-conference.
Bad: Only loss that wasn't down to the wire in a true road game was 19-point thrashing to Texas in New Jersey, something none of the other top seven teams really experienced, a dominant loss. SEC down a little this year doesn't help their resume.
Why seed: Pushing for No. 1 overall, tournament win may get them there, not automatically in at No. 1 if lose in SEC quarters, but should be safe here.

16. Morgan St: 19-9, 126, 285, MEAC auto guess

Here because estimated as MEAC champ with 14-2 conference record, top RPI, and No. 1 tournament seed. Still a ways to go. Probably second or third worst conference in Division I. Best win: American.

8. Baylor: 20-9, 34, 32, Big 12 #5
Good: Decent non-conference, with wins over Notre Dame and wire-to-wire games against Washington St. and Arkansas. Conference wins over Texas Tech, Kansas St., and five-OT thriller over Texas A&M. eight of nine losses to top 50 teams, 17-1 against below top 50.
Bad: Only 4-9 against top 100 teams, not many real good wins away from home outside of Notre Dame game, which was neutral. Only finished 4-5.
Why seed: Pretty good in, 20 wins and high RPI and above .500 mark in solid conference gets them pretty in, may be a little worrisome if drop to Colorado in Big 12 quarters.

9. St Mary's: 24-6, 37, 137, WCC #2
Good: Great non-conference run for mid-major team, beating Drake, Oregon, Seton Hal, and Ohio. All losses to top 90 teams. Split with Gonzaga.
Bad: Lost twice to San Diego, blown out in toughest game to Texas, only two wins over top 50 teams.
Why seed: Dropped a little after not making WCC Finals at least. Safe in with two top 30 wins, and 7-6 record against top 100.

5. Marquette: 21-8, 23, 36, Big East #5
Good: Beat Wisconsin, IUPUI, and blew out Oklahoma State in non conference, all losses to top 50 teams. Beat Notre Dame, Pitt, and Villanova in conference.
Bad: Lost two of last three, not great non-conference schedule (157 SOS NC), four losses by 14 or more.
Why seed: Solid Big East team, only 11-7 in conference, not great. Good record in dominant conference though.

12. Western Kentucky: 25-6, 43, 144, Sun Belt champion

Bubble team if didn't win conference tourney Tuesday night, I would have them out. Seeded No. 12 because if in probably would be there. Only top 100 win home game against Nebraska in overtime. Now in officially. Two Sun Belt teams in tourney odd, but likely.

4. Stanford: 24-6, 18, 78, Pac-10 #2
Good: 14-4 in Pac 10, Non-conference win over Texas Tech in Dallas, conference wins over USC, Arizona twice, Washington St. twice, and Oregon. two of four conference losses in OT.
Bad: Absolute cupcake non-conf schedule, only three top 150 teams in schedule, and lost to Siena. Lost last two games of the season.
Why seed: 11 top-100 wins, great conference record in one of top conferences in nation keep them high. Struggles continue in Pac-10 tourney, may drop a seed more, also can move up with strong run.

13. George Mason: 23-10, 62, 126, CAA champion

In as conference champions, but were relatively close to bubble, so should have a seed around 12-14. Nice to see them back. Beat Dayton, Kansas State, Cleveland St., and VCU this year.

6. Purdue: 24-7, 36, 110, Big Ten #4
Good: Great conference run, 15 wins, beat Louisville non-conference, beat Wisconsin twice, Ohio St., and Michigan St.
Bad: Three bad non-conf losses, including to Wofford and Iowa State.
Why seed: Hot team, but poor non-conference schedule will cost them a little on the seeding part, probably won't go below six seed.

11. Arizona: 17-13, 29, 2, Pac-10 #5
Good: No. 2 schedule in country, 10 top-100 wins, non-conference wins over Texas A&M, UNLV, Houston, and CS-Fullerton, took Kansas to OT. Conference wins over Washington St (twice) and USC.
Bad: 8-10 conference record, lost six of last eight, not very good record in general.

Why seed: In because of ridiculous schedule, and lots of good wins. 11 of 13 losses against top 76 teams. Barely in though, may need help and/or win conference tourney game or two.

3. Vanderbilt: 25-6, 10, 35, SEC #2
Good: 11-top 100 wins, non-conference over Austin Peay, Utah State, S. Alabama and UMass. Conference wins over Kentucky, Miss St., and Tennessee.
Bad: All wins listed in good section home or neutral. Only 10-6 in conference play, fourth best. Lost two of last three.
Why seed: Could drop if early loss in SEC tournament. Probably won't move up. Placed here because top 10 RPI hard to ignore.

14. Siena: 22-10, 72, 121, MAAC champion

In by winning MAAC championship over Rider. 14 seed due to decent RPI, and two impressive wins, over Stanford and Boise St. in non-conference. Could be an upset pick.

7. Pittsburgh: 21-9, 24, 38, Big East #6
Good: Beat Duke in New York, and Oklahoma St in non-conference. Beat Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Villanova in Big East play.
Bad: 10-8 in Big East decent, not great, lost four of last seven. Bad losses to Cincinnati and Rutgers don't help.
Why seed: Drops a little due to mid-season loss of Ramon, hasn't played quite as well after losing him for the season. In safely though, and 7-7 vs top 100 solid.

10. Kent St: 25-6, 26, 117, MAC auto guess
Good: Nine top 100 wins, a ton for a mid-major. Non-conference wins over Illinois St., George Mason, Cleveland St., and St. Mary's. Will be in even if don't win automatic bid.
Bad: Bad losses to Detroit, Bowling Green and Toledo. Seven of nine wins over top 100 against 51-100, and no top 30 wins (did lose to Xavier and UNC).
Why seed: A little lower than some think, typically based off of history of committee underseeding mid-majors, kind of a prove it idea.

2. Duke: 26-4, 4, 9, ACC #2
Good: Play like Duke. 15 top-100 wins. Non-conference wins over Marquette, Wisconsin, Davidson, Cornell, and Temple. Also beat Miami (split), UNC(split), and Clemson.
Bad: Bad loss to Wake Forest, also was only double digit loss of year. That's about it.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, but four losses actually a lot this year to be a No. 1 seed. I think will be a No. 1 if win ACC Tournament.

15. Belmont: 24-8, 78, 221, Atlantic Sun champion

In by winning Atlantic Sun conference, both regular season and tournament. Best wins over Cincinnati and Alabama. Did lose to No. 311 Campbell and No. 325 Kennesaw St.

(halfway there)
South

1. Memphis: 30-1, 3, 19, C-USA auto guess
Good: Eight top 50 wins, 12-1 against top 100 teams. Beat Oklahoma, UConn, USC, Georgetown, Arizona, Siena, Gonzaga in non-conference. 16-0 in conference.
Bad: Play in Conference USA.
Why seed: Could be best in nation, but mid-major type conference keeps everyone from feeling comfortable about it. Should be No. 1 even with loss in tournament if happens.

16. Portland St: 19-9, 96, 245, Big Sky auto guess

In as estimate for who'll win Big Sky. Portland State No. 1 seed and highest RPI from conference. Did lose to Eastern Washington and San Jose St, but beat IUPUI and Akron.

8. Kansas St: 19-10, 45, 27, Big 12 #4
Good: Beat Kansas. Have best player in nation in Michael Beasley. Played a solid schedule. Ten Big 12 wins means something this year (went 10-6 last yearand didn't get in), also beat Oklahoma and Texas A&M in conference.
Bad: Lost every tough non-conference game, blown out by Xavier. Also lost road games to Missouri and Nebraska. Lost four of last six.
Why seed: Solid wins, six top 100 wins good, but 6-9 against that group. Should be good, but not completely safe. Can help and/or hurt in tourney, very easily could drop.

9. Arkansas: 20-10, 42, 40, SEC #4
Good: Four top-50 wins. Beat VCU and Baylor non-conference as well as Oral Roberts. 9-7 record in SEC good enough to get in, did beat Ole Miss and Miss St as well as Vanderbilt in SEC play.
Bad: Bad losses to Appalachian St, South Carolina, and Georgia. Vanderbilt only top 30 win, lost five of last eight.
Why seed: Twenty wins and over .500 in conference usually a good sign. 7-6 vs top 100 also keeps them good. Should be safe in, could help self with SEC tourney run.

5. Butler: 29-3, 16, 136, Horizon champion
Good: Great record, 9-3 against top 100 is tremendous. Beat Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, and Ohio State in consecutive games. All three losses against top 86teams and by seven or less.
Bad: Only one top 50 win. Perhaps not many tough games could drop their seed some.
Why seed: 1-1 vs top 50 not great, though 9-3 vs top 100 is. Pretty set at 4-6 range with tourney championship.

12. Villanova: 19-11, 57, 56, Big East #8
Good: .500 in Big East play, four top 50 wins and seven top 100 wins, beat George Mason and Temple non-conference. Beat Pitt (split), Syracuse (split), UConn, and West Virginia in conference.
Bad: Bad losses to Rutgers, DePaul, and Cincinnati. Only 9-9 in conference iffy. Lost five consecutive games at one point.
Why seed: Essentially spot for eighth Big East team. Syracuse beats them Wednesday, probably will take this spot (though mid-major's that get in but lose their conference tournament means spot not guaranteed).

4. Xavier: 26-5, 9, 28,A-10 auto guess
Good: Dominant non-conference performance, beating Kent State, Indiana, Creighton, Kansas St., and Belmont. 14-2 in underrated A-10 conference, did beatDayton twice, UMass, and St. Joe's (split). 11 wins over top 100 teams.
Bad: Relatively under the radar, outside of two-game run in neutral site, zero top 30 wins.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, I think A-10 will be disrespected a little bit, and did lose five times anyway.

13. Stephen F. Austin: 21-4, 59, 258, Southland auto guess

Picked as auto guess due to No. 1 seed in tournament and high RPI (Sam Houston St also in top 80).
Won only top 50 game over Oklahoma in Norman.
Also beat San Diego and Sam Houston St (split).

6. Clemson: 21-8, 21, 37, ACC #3
Good: Ten top-100 wins, didn't fade like years past, 10-6 in ACC always viewed as impressive. Beat Mississippi St and Purdue in non-conference. Also beat Miami and took UNC to OT in both games they played.
Bad: No top 25 wins, hasn't looked great in ACC, and played pretty cupcake non-conference outside of two mentioned above.
Why seed: Lot of good wins, high RPI, and being the third best team in the perceived greatness of the ACC gets them up here. Can move a slot up or down in tourney, but not much.

11. South Alabama: 24-6, 39, 128
Good: Three top 50 wins great for Sun Belt team, also beat Mississippi St. and took Vanderbilt to double overtime in Vandyland. Beat Western Kentucky, the only real tough competition outside of Middle Tennessee St. who shocked them in the tourney, twice.
Bad: Couldn't win conference tourney, MTSU not viewed as real good team, two losses to them tough, loss to North Texas not real good either.
Why seed: Great record, examples of ability to compete against top opponents sneaks them in, though they will be feeling bubble pressure.

3. Connecticut: 24-7, 14, 26, Big East #3
Good: Seven top 50 wins, beat Indiana in non-conference. Beat Marquette, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame (split), and West Virginia in Big East.
Bad: "Only" 8-7 against top 100, not great for a seed as high as three. Pretty bad losses to Providence twice. Pretty cupcake non-conference.
Why seed: 13-5 in Big East, lots of big wins in "best" conference in nation.

Everyone loves Jim Calhoun. Probably won't move up, but may move down one with poor Big East tourney showing.

14. UC-Santa Barbara: 22-7, 79, 206, Big West auto guess

In as one of top seeds in Big West (4 way cluster with them, Pacific, Cal St Fullerton and Cal St Northridge. All would be 14-15 seeds. UCSB highest RPI of four, did beat UNLV.

7. UNLV: 22-7, 28, 71, MWC #2
Good: 7-5 vs top 100, did beat Nevada and San Diego in non-conference. 12-4 in solid MWC, did beat BYU (split), San Diego St twice, and New Mexico(split).
Bad: Bad losses to Air Force and Utah, blown out in only top 20 opponent in Louisville at home.
Why seed: Probably could move down, lot of doubters, but figured sweet 16 effort last year helps some, with most of the same group. Should be in 7-10 range.

10. Illinois St: 23-9, 35, 70, MVC #2
Good: 5-5 against top 100 teams, beat Wright St and Cincinnati in non-conference, beat Creighton twice and Southern Illinois twice in MVC play.13-5 pretty solid as No. 2, went to MVC Tourney finals.
Bad: Bad losses to Indiana St. and E. Michigan, not much in terms of competition in non-conference. Best win was RPI No. 51 Creighton.
Why seed: Enough decent wins to get in, high enough RPI, good conference record in solid conference, but Drake destroying them last Sunday didn't make them look great. Should be fine.

2. Texas: 25-5, 5, 9, Big 12 auto guess
Good: Co-Big 12 champs, 10-3 against top 50, 15 top 100 wins, ridiculous non-conference wins (though not quite as much as Memphis) with wins over Tennessee (by 19 and in NJ), UCLA in L.A., St. Mary's, and Oral Roberts. 13-3 in conference includes win over Kansas, over Oklahoma twice, Baylor twice, Kansas State, and Texas A&M (split).
Bad: Five losses more than any other in top eight, bad loss to Missouri. Two double digit losses not great either. Struggled to win games recently.
Why seed: Many big wins, but too many losses to be a No. 1. Could still move up to a No. 1 with Big 12 tourney win, probably safe at No. 2. Might like it more there if go to Houston for regionals in South region.

15. Austin Peay: 24-10, 83, 198, OVC champion

Won conference championship last Saturday to get in, RPI puts them as a 14-15 seed, both top 100 wins over Belmont. Competitive in games against Vanderbilt, Memphis, and Utah St.

West

1. UCLA: 27-3, 6, 22, Pac-10 auto guess
Good: 16-2 in Pac-10 play, 17-2 against top 100 teams, beat Maryland, Michigan St., and Davidson in non-conference play. Beat Stanford twice, Oregon twice, Washington St. twice, Arizona twice, and USC (split).
Bad: Bad loss to Washington, struggled mightily to win last two games, not much else.
Why seed: Wins Pac-10, 27 wins, only three losses for major conference program gets them ahead of Kansas and Texas right now, not guaranteed a one seed though. Pretty safe as of right now.

16. Winthrop: 20-11, 109, 174, Big South champion

In by defeating UNC-Asheville (and human giant Kenny George) last Saturday, a lower seed than last year's 13 seed by going only 10-4 in conference, also lost to High Point and Coastal Carolina, both bad losses. Did beat Miami and Georgia Tech.

8. West Virginia: 21-9, 32, 55, Big East #7
Good: Three top 50 wins, 11-7 Big East record, top non-conference wins are UMBC and Winthrop, did lose to Tennessee by two and Oklahoma in double OT. Beat Marquette, Pitt, and Syracuse in conference.
Bad: Bad loss to Cincinnati, not many pleasing wins. Non-conference schedule smells of cupcakes.
Why seed: Eleven win Big East team, probably the seventh best team. Did go 6-8 against top 100 which isn't bad. "Horrible schedule" still is 55th, which is in the top 1/6th of nation. Will drop if lose early, probably won't move much though.

9. Mississippi St.: 21-9, 38, 51, SEC #3
Good: 12-4 in SEC play, never not got in before (same logic helps Kentucky as well), strong recently, won seven of last nine, beat Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi(split).
Bad: Rest of non-conference cupcakes. Only 4-9 against top 100, not real good, lost every tough non-conference game, didn't win any that would be considered good.
Why seed: Very good in conference play, and played some tough opponents in non-conference, though didn't win any of them.

5. Michigan St.: 24-7, 15, 48, Big Ten #3
Good: 8-5 vs top 100 teams, five wins vs top 50, non-conf wins over BYU and Texas. Conference wins over Purdue (split), Indiana (split), and Ohio State (split). Played UCLA to the wire.
Bad: 12-6 in conference good, not great, similar statement about non-conference schedule. Bad losses to Iowa and Penn St.
Why seed: Because they're Michigan State and a 12-win team in Big Ten, and showed well in competitive non-conference games against BYU, UCLA and Texas. Probably won't move much.

12. New Mexico: 24-7, 52, 151, MWC #3
Good: Solid wins over San Diego and Texas Tech non conference, beat San Diego St. (split) and UNLV (split) in conference. 11-5 in solid MWC.
Bad: Only one top 50 win, 4-5 against top 100, bad losses to New Mexico St and TCU. Not much to debate into the tournament with.
Why seed: Probably my last in right now, needs to show well in tournament, may play UNLV in semifinals, which would be huge for them, I think getting to MWC would seal them in. Could move up to 10 or 11 if beat UNLV and BYU this week.

4. Drake: 26-4, 12, 69, MVC champion

In by way of defeating Illinois St. (soundly) in MVC final last Sunday.

Why seed: Four top 50 wins, though three were Illinois St. Did also beat Butler in Indiana. 15-3 in solid conference, lots of decent wins. Worst loss to Missouri St. Will probably still be fourth or fifth seed.

13. Oral Roberts: 23-8, 56, 157, Summit champion

Had been estimated in, and was made official Tuesday night after beating No. 2 seed IUPUI. Top 65 RPI gets them pretty high seed for one-bid conferences, top wins over Oklahoma State and IUPUI (two of three).

6. Washington St.: 23-7, 20, 46, Pac-10 #3
Good: Eleven top 100 wins, non-conference over Baylor and Gonzaga, both on the road. In conference, wins over USC twice and Oregon twice. Third-best team in Pac-10 means auto credibility.
Bad: No top 25 wins, not great non-conference besides Baylor-Zags trip.

Why seed: 23 wins, third-best team in Pac 10, lots of solid wins, but none great to move up, could move up or down a slot in tourney.

11. Kentucky: 18-11, 49, 12, SEC #5
Good: 12-4 in SEC, never has not got in with 12 SEC wins, big conference wins over Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Six of seven non-conference losses were against top 100 teams, so not as bad as perceived.
Bad: 6-7 in non-conference, including awful loss to Gardner-Webb. Only 5-10 against top 100 teams.
Why seed: In because of SEC play, and only SEC play, so lower than three other SEC teams they had better conference records against. Not completely in yet.

3. Wisconsin: 26-4, 13, 62, Big Ten auto guess
Good: Every loss was against a good team, all top 40 teams, Big non-conference win over Texas at Texas, dominant in Big Ten, beating Indiana twice, Ohio St. twice, and Michigan State. Five top 50 wins.
Bad: Couldn't beat Purdue, 1-2 in non-conference games against teams in top 90, pretty easy schedule pre-Big Ten. Big Ten not real good this year anyway.
Why seed: Rewarded for winning Big Ten regular season outright, doesn't lose against bad teams, will be appreciated. Could move up a slot with solid tourney run, I don't think they'll drop.

14. San Diego: 20-13, 89, 97, WAC champion

In by shocking the WCC world and beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga on back-to-back nights. Won't have luxury of playing in San Diego in the NCAAs like they did in WCC tournament. Did also beat Kentucky this year.

7. Miami-FL: 20-9, 27, 31, ACC #4
Good: Nine wins vs top 100 teams, non- conference wins over VCU and Mississippi St., ACC wins over Clemson (split), Virginia Tech, and Duke (split).
Bad: Only 8-8 in conference play, bad losses to Winthrop and Boston College. Pretty cream-puff non-conference in general (135 SOS).
Why seed: Twenty wins, .500 in ACC, and solid non-conference wins and few bad losses. High RPI as well. Seed could vary greatly, anywhere from six (if make ACC tourney run) to 11.

10. Texas A&M: 21-9, 47, 57, Big 12 #6
Good: Four top 50 wins, beat Oral Roberts and Ohio St. in non-conference, Texas, Oklahoma, and Baylor.
Bad: SOS is No. 222 in non-conf, only 8-8 in Big 12, not great, lost at home to Nebraska and OK State (both top 100, but barely). 6-5 away from home.
Why seed: In because of solid conference record in underrated conference, 7-9 vs top 100 solid for bubble team, not safely in though. Need to not look bad in tourney.

2. Georgetown: 25-4, 7, 42, Big East auto guess
Good: Six top 50 wins, beat UConn, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Marquette, Syracuse (split), and Louisville (split). Only four losses. 15-3 in Big East.
Bad: Only nine wins against top 100, which isn't many for a No. 2 seed, very easy non-conference schedule (130 SOS), only tough game lost by 14 to Memphis.
Why seed: Big East champ gives them a boost, but may be a three if don't make it relatively far into the Big East tournament.

15. Md.-Baltimore County: 22-8, 88, 269, America East auto guess

In as No. 1 seed and highest RPI in conference. Currently into finals, will either be them or would be play-in game candidate Hartford. Best win was against American this year.

Made it through? Congratulations.