Bleacher Report - Articles by Chris Finocchio

Rajon Rondo Vs. Chris Johnson: NBA Vs. NFL Athleticism

Chris Finocchio — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:41:10 -0500

Let's say Rajon Rondo runs a 3/4 court sprint in 3.00 seconds. Toney Douglas ran the fastest time this past year at 3.03. A 3/4 is 23.5 yards. Chris Johnson ran the first 10 yards at the combine in 1.40 and the first 20 in 2.41.

Assume Chris Johnson runs the next 3.5 yards at the same speed he ran the last 10 yards (1yd/.101 seconds). That would make his 3/4 court time 2.41 + (.101 x 3.5) equaling 2.7635.

His time would be even faster than that, as he would not have reached top speed after 10 yards. Running on hardwood with basketball shoes may be harder than running on turf with flats, but not harder by a quarter of a second. Rondo has as much of a chance of beating Johnson in a race as Ochocinco has of beating Phelps in a medley.

Interestingly, Johnson's no step vertical at the combine was 35 inches, good but not outstanding. 272 lb. Chris Long had a 34 inch vertical. Jermaine Taylor had the highest no step vert at this year's NBA combine with 34 inches.

The NBA has the world greatest athletes but not the world's most explosive athletes. Still it would be fun to see some sort of race/contest between the games' top athletes. It may be unfair to compare NBA combine results to NFL results, as NFL prospects spend months in a gym solely focused on 40 technique, raising thier bench, and gaining weight. NBA prospects seem like they just show up and do their best.

I would propose a few events to entertain and give some answers to the NBA/ NFL debate. Here coordination and not just athleticism would come into play.

1. Flag football with with Rondo and as Derrick Rose as DB's going against Moss and Welker; and Wade and Ellis as receivers going against Asumugha and Revis.

2. Raquetball between Glen Davis and Jared Allen.

3. Home run derby between Pro Bowlers and the NBA All-Stars.

4. Capture the Flag between Orlando Magic and Bengals D.

5. Dodge Ball between NBA 3's and NFL Linebackers.

Shaq Isn't the Godfather, He's Hyman Roth

Chris Finocchio — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:53:20 -0500

Shaq gave us one of sports’ greatest quotes when he compared himself to Vito Corleone, Penny Hardaway to Fredo, Kobe Bryant to Sonny, and Dwyane Wade to Michael.

Upon closer examination, Shaq is not comparable to Vito. He is Hyman Roth.

“Your father did business with Hyman Roth, your father respected Hyman Roth, but he never trusted Hyman Roth.”

Is there a better quote to describe how Kobe, Wade, or Phil Jackson thought about Shaq? Or Steve Nash? Ask him if he trusts Shaq after he stole his reality tv idea.

But the parallels run much deeper than trust. Both men formed their identities in similar ways. Shaq named himself after his favorite superhero, the Man of Steel. Roth named himself after his favorite mob hero, Arnold Rothstein, the man alleged to have fixed the World Series.

Is it a coincidence that Roth’s underlings, Johnny Ola and Fredo, go see a performer named Superman?

Both Shaq and Roth have huge divides between their public and private personas.

Shaq has worked hard to get the public to think of him as the jovial, goofy star who jokes with reporters, dances at All-Star games, and stars in Aaron Carter videos.

In reality, Shaq is a hateful, mean man, who without his fun-loving persona would be Albert Belle.

Ask Larry Johnson what happens when you call your opponents the Sacramento "Queens." Well, nobody liked LJ like they do Shaq, and Shaq never averaged 2.7 yards per carry. Or ask Gasol what happens when you say “tell Yao Ming, ching chong yang.” No one seemed to care when he took shots at Chris Quinn and Ricky Davis.

Who else in sports does something like that? And don’t forget Kobe’s remark that he wasn’t the only Laker unfaithful but unlike others he did not pay his "companions" large sums to stay quiet.

Likewise, Hyman Roth maintains the image of a quiet old man. “I am a retired investor on a pension, and I wished to live here as a Jew in the twilight of my life.” Only this pensioner was running a syndicate bigger than U.S. Steel. He pretended to be an uncle to Michael, while using his brother to try to kill him.

Roth and Shaq both seem like they are never going to go away. “Hyman Roth has been dying of the same heart attack for the last 20 years,” quips Michael. Likewise, Shaq has looked rejuvenated since leaving Miami and put up 18 points a game last year.

In the mob where everyone dies or goes to jail, Roth survived for a long time for one reason, according to Johnny Ola.

“Hyman Roth makes money for his partners. One by one, all our old friends are gone…Hyman Roth is the only one left, because he always made money for his partners.”

Shaq has survived being a jerk, and leaving four teams on bad terms by making money for his partners. But Roth does not live forever due to his betrayal of the Corleones and the fall of Batista.

A time will come where Shaq will not make anyone money and his true colors will be more apparent.

When Roth cannot stay in the U.S., he tries to seek asylum in Israel. I would not be the first to suggest Shaq would consider playing for Maccabi in 2012. But even that team might not want the baggage.

Be weary of airport reporters, Shaq.

Biedrins vs. Stoudemire by the Numbers: Warriors-Suns Trade

Chris Finocchio — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 17:41:13 -0400

Scoring

Scoring represents the greatest difference between Stoudemire and Beidrins. Last year Biedrins scored 11.9 a games in 30.0 minutes, compared to 21.4 in 36.8 minutes from Amare. Per 48 minutes, Amare outscores Biedrins 27.9 to 19.0. Amare’s production at center, which he would play in Golden State, was even greater at 29.8 per 48.

Without Baron Davis distributing and Monta creating, Beidrins’ true shooting percentage dropped from .637 in '07-'08 to .585 last year. The drop in efficiency came not only from losing the two star guards, but also from being asked to do more as his usage percentage increased 16 percent from 14.4 to 16.7. In '08-'09, 64 percent of his close shot attempts were assisted, compared to 76 percent in '07-'08.

It’s troubling that Biedrins’ scoring efficiency decreases greatly when asked to do more on his own. This is a result of having little in the way of offensive moves and relying heavily on putbacks and transition baskets. I doubt he will develop much more offensively as he has already been in the league for five years.

Amare’s TS percentage in 2008-09 was a solid .617. Interestingly, Amare’s efficiency dropped from .657 in '07-'08 when he had a usage percentage of 28.2 to .617 when he had a lower usage percentage of 24.2. This drop was likely due to dealing with injuries and the Terry Porter debacle.

Amare’s '07-'08 season is a better predictor for future success because he was playing center in a truly run n' gun system that year. Comparing Amare’s '07-'08 scoring per 48 minutes as a center to Biedrins' '08-'09 scoring, gives Amare a much greater advantage of 37.5 to 19.0.

The reason Amare is able to score more efficiently and twice as often is that he possesses better post moves and a jump shot. 55 percent of his attempts were jump shots compared to just 16 percent from Beidrins in '08-'09. Beidrins made only 15 percent of hose jumpers, by the way. A jump shooting center can not only score more frequently but create more space for drives, and would hopefully convince Nelson that Maggette should never play as a four.

Amare’s extremely efficient scoring would hopefully take away shots from Stephen Jackson and others, making the team one of the top offensive teams in the league. While no one on the Warriors can run pick n' roll and pass like Nash, the Warriors would have enough offensive firepower to get Amare a lot of good shots. I think it would be realistic to expect him to score about 24 a game with a TS percentage around .63.

Last year, Biedrins took up 10 possessions a game. If Amare took 20 possessions a game, and the Warriors guards with a TS percentage of .53 took 10 less possessions, the Warriors would have raised their offensive rating by 2.9. Using Pythagorean Win Theorem, this would have given the Warriors 7.5 more wins last year. The Warriors may lose some guard scoring efficiency by losing Belinelli and Curry, the benefits of increased efficiency and usage at the center position far outweighs this.

Defense

Neither Biedrins nor Amare are known as great defenders and neither have played on teams known for defense.

The center playing against Amare averaged 18.1 points/48 compared to 24.7 from Beidrins. In Beidrins’ defense, he often had to leave his man to help, but Amare played on a defense just as bad. Biedrins has the advantage in blocked shots with 2.4 per 48 minutes compared to 1.6 from Amare as a center.

In '08-'09 Amare had a lower defensive rating of 111, compared to 107 for Beidrins; although Amare’s career average is a much better 104. Part of that may have to do with new coaching or playing the four more, but I think it likely just has to do with motivation. The stats seem to suggest Amare is a slightly better defender and I believe if Stephen Jackson could get Amare motivated, he could be a significant defensive improvement over Biedrins.

Rebounding

Rebounding is the one area where Beidrins appears superior.

Biedrins pulled down 11.2 boards per game last year, compared to 8.0 for Amare. However, I do not think their rebounding difference is as great as those numbers suggest. Beidrins played a very significant chunk of his minutes with Stephen Jackson, Brendan Wright, or Corey Maggette at the four.

Amare on the other hand, played a large amount of minutes at the four opposite Shaq. It is easy to see why Beidrins had more boards opportunities for rebounds than Amare. Even though Biedrins is still the better rebounder, Amare would be playing opposite a great rebounder in Anthony Randolph mitigating the differences.

Golden State Warriors Can't Play Small Because Corey Maggette Can't Play Defense

Chris Finocchio — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 00:59:35 -0500

With the return of Marco Belinelli, Don Nelson will have to decide how he is going to spread minutes among his many swingmen. Ellis, Jackson, Maggette, Azubuike and Crawford have all averaged over 30 m/g this season. Anthony Morrow, CJ Watson, and the returning Italian sharpshooter have all exceeded expectations so far.

Anthony Morrow is leading the league in three point shooting and is improving his defense and ball handling. Watson leads Warriors under 6-10 in field goal percentage. Belinelli is shooting 44% on threes and has impressed with his playmaking skills. One way to get all these guys more playing time is to continue playing Maggette at the four.

These small-ball lineups may bring back memories of Matt Barnes, Pietrus, or Jack playing the four on the “We Believe” team.

I decided to take a look back at that miraculous 2006-07 team. I started by looking at the 10 units that played the most over the course of the year. The five units that included both Harrington and Biedrins averaged an opposing EFG% of 49.8% and an EFG% of 51.4.

The five small units that did not feature both Biedrins and Harrington averaged an opposing EFG% of 49.5 and an EFG% of 57.8.When the Warriors went small, their defense was not any less efficient and their offense was much more efficient.

The defense remained efficient as Harrington could match up with bigger fives, and Pietrus, Barnes, and Richardson could all defend bigger fours. The offense was significantly more efficient because opposing fours could not run with the Warrior’s fours or defend them on the perimeter.

I wanted to look at the stats and see how Maggette’s play at the four compared to the '06-'07 units. It is harder to look at stats for this year because the sample sizes are much lower as the season is only half over and the Warriors have been plagued by injuries resulting in a huge variation in lineups.

One easy set of data to look at was how the Warriors performed with a lineup of Crawford, Buike, Jackson, Maggette, and Biedrins compared with Crawford, Buike, Jackson, Wright, Biedrins.

With Wright at the four, they had an average opposing EFG% of 42.2 compared with 59.0 when Maggette was at the four. Surprisingly the Warriors EFG% was also 10% higher with Wright in. Maybe it could makes sense that the guy who only takes good shots within two feet is more efficient then the guy who hoists threes when he is shooting 18% on them.

All year I’ve watched Maggette not move his feet when a guy drives or let guys post him up and drop step to the hoop at will. Still, I did not expect the difference between Wright and Maggette to be so great. The amount of minutes the Wariors played with the two units I compared was not too great so I thought that they might not be truly representative of Maggette’s defensive abilities.

So I compared Maggette to Azubuike when they each played with Watson, Crawford, Jackson, Biedrins and when they each played with Ellis, Crawford, Jackson, and Turiaf. In the two lineups with Buike, the Warriors average opposing EFG% was 54.1. With Maggette it was 56.4%. While this does not show much of a difference between Maggette and Azubuike, it may only show they are equally bad at guarding fours.

One reason the 08-09 small ball units may have been less effective than those of '06-'07 is that they were missing the combination of Baron/Monta running the fast break. Nevertheless, it seems reasonable to conclude that Azubuike and Maggette are much worse at guarding fours than Barnes or Pietrus. There did not seem to be enough data to see how Jackson has faired against fours this year. He seems very effective at pestering some skinny fours like Bosh or Nowitzki, but has a tougher time against Brandon Bass/ Paul Milsap types.

Even if Jackson can guard a four, he is usually better utilized guarding an opposing team’s best perimeter player.

While the Warriors do not have a star at the four spot, they have some decent options. When Wrights learns to rebound, or Randolph remembers he isn’t Kevin Durant when he gets the ball, the Warriors will have a solid long-term front-court partner for Biedrins. The Warriors have also faired well pairing Turiaf with Biedrins, giving them good defense and nice big to big passing.

If the Warriors do what is best for them, Belinelli, Morrow, and Watson will all get less playing time than they probably deserve. Crawford’s minutes may get cut into when Monta get back to form, but they won’t drop too significantly.

Belinelli and Morrow had been mentioned in trades that would give the Warriors an upgrade at the four or five. After Terry Porter’s exit, it appears that the Warriors will not be making any trades. Come June, the Warriors will get another shot to see which young wings should get shipped out.