Bleacher Report - Articles by Ryan Metivier

AFC West: Betting NFL Season Win Totals

Ryan Metivier — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 23:02:36 -0400

Over the next few weeks I will preview each NFL division from an over/under season win total perspective.

All totals and odds to win division courtesy of Bowmans.com as current as the date the article is published.

For additional division previews please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, NFC East, AFC South, AFC North, and AFC East divisions.

Kansas City: 6

2008 turned out to be a complete disaster all around for the Chiefs as they bottomed out with a 2-14 record. They tied with the Rams for the league’s second worst record and allowed the fourth-most points league wide with 440.

It’s hard to find a single positive stat line on KC from last season, as their offense was average at best, they were 30th defending the run, 28th defending the pass and set an NFL record for fewest sacks in a season with only 10, not surprisingly finishing a rock bottom 32nd in that category.

Results like that can only mean changes need to be made, and they certainly were. A new GM, coach and defensive coordinator highlighted the management changes.

Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey had survived the initial round of pink slips from his new bosses, but he wasn’t able to get along with new coach Todd Haley and was recently relieved of his duties.

Gailey will be taking a front office position, while Haley will have his hands full as a first-time head coach by taking over the play calling duties on offense, as well.

A host of changes were made all over the roster, not the least of which is the addition of Matt Cassell through a trade with the Patriots. Free agent WR pickup Bobby Engram may be the biggest addition on offense, and he will have to try to replace some of the scoring the Chiefs lost by trading TE Tony Gonzalez.

The linebacking corps added some pieces with the additions of Monty Beisel and Mike Vrabel, to name a few. They’re both on the north side of 30, however, so neither can be seen as long-term solutions.

Questions abound on the right side of the offensive line, where free agent Mike Goff could be a new starter at RG, while RT is anyone’s guess as Damion McIntosh has just been released.

Being saddled with the fourth-toughest schedule last year certainly didn’t help matters for Kansas City, and only playing three teams (Cincinnati, Oakland and Buffalo) with losing records would be a tough chore for any team. The schedule should lighten a bit this season, coming in as only the 17th toughest.

That being said, most of KC’s “easier games” look to come near the end of the year, when they could already be long out of contention.

Playing Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincy, and Denver twice in their last five games may be a small consolation for having to play the likes of Baltimore, the entire NFC East, Pittsburgh and two games versus San Diego twice all by Week 12.

While Weeks 13-15 may be all home games, all three of those opponents will have had a few days extra rest as they played their game the week before on a Thursday.

The Chiefs have certain pieces in place which should be strong building blocks for the future.

Their secondary is very young, yet very promising, especially with the likes of sophomore CBs Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers.

The defensive line will need to really step up with a rotation that is also very young, where most of the key pieces are all 25 or younger.

Originally, I wanted to say the Chiefs have a legitimate shot to go over their projected win total. They have made some nice additions and the tail end of their schedule has the potential for KC to string together a few wins and end the year on a positive note.

Unfortunately, so far they have looked terrible in preseason play and the firing of their offensive coordinator roughly a week before the season can only mean the team is acknowledging things are a mess up front.

Quite honestly, looking at their schedule, they could conceivably have only two to three wins after Week 12. That would mean they would most likely need to win four or five of their final five games, and I just don’t think this team is talented enough to put together that kind of streak.

Prediction: Under 6 wins

Denver: 6.5

After Week Five, the Broncos were sitting pretty at 4-1 and looking like the favorites to take the AFC West crown. They hit some rough patches over the next several weeks, but were still in position to win the division at 8-5 after Week 14.

One win in either of their next two games would’ve solidified their spot in the playoffs and atop the division, however, two straight losses set up a showdown in Week 17 vs. San Diego.

Having personally bet the Broncos to win the AFC West early in 2008, witnessing their slow collapse and eventual demise in San Diego was quite tough to watch.

A season which began with so much promise quickly went in the opposite direction, and the ramifications were significant.

Fourteen-year head coach Mike Shanahan was fired, leaving the door open for 32-year-old Josh McDaniels to leave his spot as offensive coordinator in New England for his first head coaching gig in Denver.

Mass changes were made on both sides of the ball, including the biggest move in Jay Cutler forcing his way out of town and ending up in a Bears uniform. It would seem that WR Brandon Marshall is attempting to engineer his own move out of Denver, but for now he has just been suspended for the remainder of the preseason for “conduct detrimental to the team.”

While Denver’s 2008 offensive statistics were very respectable, they will essentially need to be thrown out the window, considering some combination of most likely Kyle Orton and Chris Simms will now be behind center, and both are battling injuries as of this writing.

An offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the league will return fully intact and will now be clearing paths for rookie Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter out of the backfield.

Despite several changes along all lines of defense, the Broncos still have miles to go in improving upon a D which ranked 27th against the run and 26th against the pass. This unit also ranked 24th in sacks, had the league’s worst turnover differential at minus 17 and were second worst (only to the Lions) in points allowed with 448.

Denver won’t have the luxury of playing the 3rd easiest schedule again this year, but their schedule does only come in at the middle of the pack at 19th.

That being said, from Weeks Four to 12, the Broncos could conceivably go winless as they play almost all of the potentially “top” teams in the league. This stretch includes games versus Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego again, and then the Giants. That doesn’t include games on the road versus Indy in Week 14 and versus Philly in Week 16.

The bottom line is that there’s no way this team is even close to the 8-8 team that finished the 2008 season.

No team which has gone through as much controversy in the offseason and as many public disputes with its star players can truly expect to succeed.

Kyle Orton may have been serviceable in Chicago, but he had some semblance of a defense behind him. In Denver, he has been throwing INTs left, right, and center in the preseason and will be exposed for the average QB he is.

How much worse this edition of the Broncos will be compared to the 2008 squad is yet to be seen, but at least two wins worse by no means seems like a stretch. This may actually be one of the worst teams in the league in 2009, and I even think the Lions could have a better year.

Prediction: Under 6.5 wins

San Diego: 9.5

A slow start to the season and a 4-8 record after Week 13 in 2008 had the Chargers looking like one of the biggest disappointments of the year. Regardless of the fact that their games in Denver and Pittsburgh were both decided with questionable calls that weren’t in their favor, this squad just couldn’t find a way to get things together.

Then in Week 14, when they looked left for dead, a light went on and San Diego steamrolled past the Raiders in a 34-7 victory. The win sparked the Chargers to close out the year on a four-game winning streak, including their season finale versus Denver, which they won 52-21 to steal the division crown right from under the Broncos noses.

The Chargers kept this momentum going into the playoffs by eliminating the Colts, but eventually flamed out in the Divisional round to the eventual Super Bowl champ Steelers.

For the last few years, this team has been touted as one of the league’s finest, and that window of opportunity could be closing with at least five key players entering contract years this season.

Add to that LT turning 30 years old and NT Jamal Williams being 33, and this roster could see some changes in the coming year or two.

To avoid being forced to string together several wins at the end of the year just to squeak into the playoffs in what is arguably one of the league’s weakest divisions, San Diego will need to be all business right from the get-go this year.

It would appear head coach Norv Turner feels the same way, as he has been playing several of his stars (such as Tomlinson) this preseason, something which he has rarely done in the past.

San Diego made some of the fewest changes to their roster this offseason, with the addition of LB Kevin Burnett being the only notable signing. GM A.J. Smith obviously is happy with the group he has and needed to save some cash for his own soon-to-be free agents.

The return of Shawn Merriman from injury is almost like a trade or signing though, as his absence last season most likely contributed to San Diego’s 28th ranking in sacks.

Ryon Bingham will replace Igor Olshansky at DE and the releases of both Mike Goff and Kynan Forney leave a bit of a question mark at RG, where rookie Luis Vasquez may be forced to start.

A 31st ranked secondary is very concerning, but if Antonio Cromartie is fully healed from the fractured hip injury he played through last year, the unit should improve.

Also, the Chargers could be in luck, as their schedule doesn’t include many teams with potent vertical offenses. With Jay Cutler no longer in the division, that’s two fewer games where they will face an elite QB.

That leaves Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, McNabb, Romo, and Palmer as the only “star” QBs the Chargers secondary will have to deal with.

Of that group, Pittsburgh, New York, and Dallas all focus more on the run, where San Diego was 11th last year. Palmer is already battling injuries and could be hobbled and out of contention by the time they face him in Week 15.

The Chargers are once again favored to do big things in 2009. They are overwhelming favorites to win their division at -450, and to bet the over on their win total you’ll have to lay -220, which has been bet way up from -150 earlier in the summer.

They are also right behind New England to win the AFC and rank as one of the top choices to win the Super Bowl at only +850.

While the value may not be there to win the division or to go over 9.5 wins, betting this team to win the AFC and/or Super Bowl can’t be seen as a poor decision.

They have a strong defense, a prolific offense which was seventh in passing a year ago, a core of players desperate to prove themselves in contract years, and, barring Miami-type turnaround seasons by their division rivals, virtually a red carpet laid out for them to the AFC West championship.

San Diego could very easily go 6-0 within the West, setting them up for double digit wins and a potential bye and home field advantage in the playoffs. They already proved they can beat Indy in the playoffs, and this could be the year they go all the way.

Prediction: Over 9.5 wins

Oakland: 5.5

The Raiders followed up a combined 15 wins from 2004-07 with yet another embarrassing season of five wins. They finished at 5-11, ironically their highest win total since 2004.

While the Raiders' deep backfield kept the chains moving and ranked 10th overall, the passing attack led by JaMarcus Russell was abysmal, plummeting to the bottom of the league at 32nd.

Only the Browns, Bengals and Rams managed fewer total offensive points on the year.

Oakland’s schedule ranks 19th in terms of opponents' winning percentages from last year, coming in slightly easier than 2008’s ninth ranking.

Notable additions are rookie WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Samson Satele at C and DE Richard Seymour, who was recently acquired from New England.

Jeff Garcia had been signed to back up Russell, however, he was released during the final days of roster cuts this past weekend. This leaves the weight of the offense squarely on Russell’s shoulders, something he has yet to prove he is capable of handling.

The secondary was a strong point last year, ranking 10th in the league. CBs Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson are solid, but safeties Hiram Eugene and Micahel Huff leave much to be desired. They will be hard pressed to replace the efforts of Gibril Wilson, who the Raiders weren’t able to afford to retain.

Oakland was 31st versus the run, so how much teams simply just avoided throwing on them is tough to distinguish. Take preseason for what it’s worth, but Oakland was 1-3 and their D continued to show many holes during their four preseason games, allowing the second most at 107.

Even the Titans and Bills, who played one extra game, finished with fewer points allowed.

Predicting the Raiders season win total seems almost impossible to call. Four of the last five years they’ve had four or five wins, which would probably make 5.5 about dead on for 2009.

Oakland did show a bit of a spark, ending 2008 on a two-game winning streak, but this team has been so bad for so long it’s hard to expect much out of them.

Playing to their favor is that they may very well be the second best team within their division. Compared with Denver and KC, they experienced the least controversy and roster change over.

They do have three instances this season where they travel East and then return home across the country the very next week, which could get tiring over a long season. I believe they should be able to pull out a few wins within the AFC West against the Broncos and Chiefs, meaning a few more wins here and there could get them over the total.

If they do go over, it will be tooth-and-nail all year and will hinge greatly on the hope that many of their young players reach the next stage in their development and improve this team from within.

Prediction: Over 5.5 wins, but by the smallest of margins, and it’s not considered a strong play.

Best Bet to Win Division: Almost by default and for all the reasons mentioned earlier in this article, the San Diego Chargers at -450. However, I see little point in laying such a large price.

AFC East Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/250887-afc-east-betting-nfl-season-win-totals

AFC North Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/241612-afc-north-betting-nfl-season-win-totals

AFC South Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/224690-afc-south-betting-nfl-season-win-totals

NFC North Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/212542-nfc-north-betting-nfl-season-win-totals

NFC West Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/188683-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-west

NFC East Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/194389-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-east

NFC South Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/201350-nfc-south-betting-the-nfl-season-win-totals

AFC East: Betting NFL Season Win Totals

Ryan Metivier — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 22:51:07 -0400

Over the next few weeks, I will preview each NFL division from an Over/Under season win total perspective. All totals and odds to win division courtesy of Bowmans.com as current as the date the article is published.

For additional division previews please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, NFC East, AFC South and AFC North divisions.

Miami Dolphins: 7

An extensive over hall to both the roster and coaching staffs after a 1-15 season in 2007 was supposed to lay the ground work for improvements in 2008 and beyond.

A quick 0-2 start to the 2008 season, and a 2-4 record by the end of Week Seven, had doubled the previous year’s win total already, yet none the less was hardly an inspiring start.

The Dolphins had found something though in Week Three, when they unveiled the “Wildcat” on the Patriots in a 38-13 thumping of New England.

Miami would go on to win nine of their remaining 10 games, including a five-game winning streak to end the season, and stun NFL pundits everywhere by claiming supremacy in the AFC East.

For as impressive as Miami was with such a quick turnaround from a one-win season a year earlier, a closer look may prove that the Dolphins took advantage of a rather soft schedule.

Miami’s ’08 opponents only combined for 118 wins, coming in as the sixth fewest in the league. Of the Dolphins' 11 wins last year, only two came against teams with an above-.500 record.

One came in Week Three when they shocked the Pats with the “Wildcat” and the other in Week 17 vs. a burnt-out Brett Favre and the Jets.

When they made it into the Wildcard round of the playoffs, they turned the ball over five times, en route to a 27-9 thrashing by another 11-5 team, the Ravens.

Success is success though, and Miami got a full-team effort all around last year. Quite possibly their best statistic was their league-leading plus-17 turnover differential, which helped put them in a position to win many games.

They were strong overall offensively and solid vs. the run, but will need to improve upon their 25th ranking against the pass.

The team hopes re-acquiring Jason Taylor will provide depth on the d-line, that CFL star Cameron Wake can make a name for himself in the NFL, that Joey Porter continues to be a disruptive force and that free agent FS Gibril Wilson will help solidify the secondary.

On offense, C Jake Grove should be an upgrade over Samson Satele, but if Ted Ginn Jr. continues not to live up to expectations and Greg Camarillo isn’t fully recovered from knee surgery, the Dolphins already thin WR corps could really pose a problem.

The majority of the offense would look to have to come from Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, to a lesser extent Patrick Cobbs, and the steadying presence that is Chad Pennington once again.

This could be an extremely tough task with opponents having a full year to dissect the “Wildcat” and also with the fact that Miami will face the league’s toughest schedule in 2009.

Their opponents will come in boasting a shade below a .600 winning percentage from a year ago, meaning Miami has taken a big step up in class from the competition they faced in 2008.

Whereas in 2008 they caught many struggling teams or teams on a downswing, they’ll only see three teams (Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville) who came in under the .500 mark a year ago.

They’ll have a chance to host two prime-time Monday nighters by the end of Week Five, and will play three home games in a row sandwiched around a bye early on, however from Weeks Eight to Twelve, they’ll face a tough stretch of playing four of five on the road.

This is hard team to call, as they definitely overachieved last year and many people are high on them to continue improving. Oddsmakers aren’t as high on the Fins though, only giving them seven wins for a season win total.

In my opinion it’s hard to imagine Miami having the same kind of success again in 2009, but a five win drop off to go under the total seems steep.

That being said, this squad probably has the talent level somewhere in between the 1-15 team of 2007 and the 11-5 team of 2008, which would make seven wins possibly a fair number.

I already expect this team to take a step back, couple that with the league’s toughest schedule and the under may be the play.

Prediction: A slight lean to under 7 wins.

Buffalo: 7.5

Buffalo got off to a blistering start in 2008 with a quick 5-1 start to the year, giving Bills fans everywhere hope that this squad had finally turned the corner.

Instead, for whatever reason, the Bills went completely in the tank for the remainder of the year, only winning two more games and finishing with only seven wins for the third consecutive season.

What’s even more concerning with the Bills, is when you look at their opponents from a year ago, the opportunity was there for them to make a serious run towards the playoffs.

Having played a schedule which ended up being the second easiest in the league, Buffalo still struggled despite only playing the Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins and Jets who had winning records.

In fact, the best teams Buffalo did manage wins against were the 8-8 Chargers and Broncos, who both weren’t at their best when the Bills faced them.

An 0-6 record against their divisional opponents last year and the league’s sixth toughest schedule coming into 2009 doesn’t bode well for a team desperately trying to revive the franchise and keep it in Buffalo long-term.

If Buffalo can’t pull off at least a couple wins within their division this year, it’s hard to imagine them seeing any improvement at all in the standings.

However, if the Bills were to look forward at their schedule and try to pencil in some wins, they may find it challenging. The only teams they face entering the year with losing records will be the Bucs, Browns, Jags, and Chiefs.

By now everyone knows of the Bill’s huge free agent signing of Terrell Owens, who together with Lee Evans, Josh Reed, and Roscoe Parrish form potentially one of the most dangerous groups of pass catching threats in the league.

The problem though is that they may have a hard-time getting the ball in their hands.

Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert had implemented the no huddle offense this preseason, but the combination of QB Trent Edwards poor ability to manage it and the complete lack of cohesion on the offensive line with all five starters being new or playing in new positions, has had disastrous results so far.

Apparently this new style of offense has been failing so badly that it’s cost Schonert his job just days before the regular season is to begin. QB coach Alex Van Pelt will now take over the play calling on offense.

The secondary should again be a team strength, but their rush defense ranked 22nd last year, and outside of drafting DE Aaron Maybin, little was done to address this issue in the off-season.

Their play in the trenches on both sides of the ball is very suspect, as they ranked 26th in sacks for and 24th in sacks allowed in 2008.

The bottom line in my opinion is that simply adding T.O. to one of the dullest offences in the league, just doesn’t look to be enough to warrant serious consideration of expecting big things from Buffalo in 2009.

Marshawn Lynch will miss some time due to suspension, Trent Edwards has yet to prove he is the long-term solution at QB, the offensive line is a mess and while the defense had some bright lights, overall they’re undersized and don’t strike fear into their opponents.

Prediction: Under 7.5

New England: 11.5

If the 2009 playoffs felt like they had something missing to them, it could’ve been that perennial invitees and Super Bowl challengers the New England Patriots were absent from them.

Losing Tom Brady in the first week of the season, could very well be the main reason behind the Pat’s down year, but Matt Cassell emerged from his long time spot behind the clipboard and produced admirably given that he hadn’t started a game since high school.

In fact, you could argue he played so well that the offense barely missed a beat in scoring the second most points in the AFC.

Unfortunately his solid play, the team’s four straight wins to end the year and an 11-5 record weren’t enough to get New England back to the playoffs.

With Tom Brady apparently fully recovered from knee surgery, Cassell was originally signed as the team’s franchise player, but then was quickly shipped off to become the starter in Kansas City.

Bill Belichick must have been completely sold on Brady being fit to return, because not only was Cassell traded, but backups Kevin O’Connell, Matt Gutierrez and free agent Andrew Walter have also been let go.

That currently only leaves undrafted free agent pick up Brian Hoyer from Michigan State behind Brady, and with Brady potentially still feeling the effects of a crushing blow to his throwing shoulder from Albert Haynesworth this preseason, panic could sweep Foxborough should Brady have to miss any more significant time.

The Pats did add a few weapons on offence, with WR Joey Galloway, RB Fred Taylor and TEs Alex Smith and Chris Baker. None of these players are going to strike fear into opponents, but Taylor should still have enough in the tank to help the run game and Galloway still boasts impressive speed.

The offensive line has been solid over the years, but took a step back in 2008, ranking 26th in sacks allowed, and made no major additions this off-season. RG Stephen Neal is also already on the PUP list.

On the defensive side of the ball, the roster has past and present stars scattered throughout. New England was still a strong 15^th vs. the rush and 11^th vs. the pass last year, but has already seen several key players go down to injury in the early stages of this 2009 year.

On the defensive line, Richard Seymour was traded to Oakland, Ty Warren and rookie Darryl Richard have fallen onto the PUP list, as well as Junior Seau and Shawn Crable in the linebacking core.

Rookie OLB Tyrone McKenzie will definitely be lost for the year as he has been placed on the IR with a knee injury. Mike Vrable left via free agency, and Teddy Bruschi retired, leaving the promising Pierre Woods and Gary Guyton to take their places.

The secondary will also have some new faces in the starting line up with Rodney Harrison retired and Ellis Hobbs leaving in free agency.

CBs Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs were brought in to fight for starting spots, but Bodden has since been released and Springs is on the PUP list.

This leaves the potential for a very young secondary with CB Terrence Wheatley, rookie CB Darius Butler, FS James Sanders, and SS Brandon Meriweather all 25 or younger and looking like the front-runners to start.

New England currently still sits at 11.5 for the season, however the lines have been taken off the board, most likely while the team sorts out how serious Brady’s shoulder injury is. Assuming this number stays put, I think the Patriots may struggle to improve on last year's 11 wins and to cover this number.

Upon further examination of the Pats' victories last year, you’ll see that of their eleven, only three came against teams with winning records (the Jets, Miami and Arizona), one vs. a team at .500 (Denver) and their remaining seven wins came against some of the bottom feeders of the league.

They played only the 22nd toughest schedule, which will be stark contrast to the 3^rd toughest they line up to face this year. To begin the year at least, the script is somewhat flipped, as instead of only playing three teams with winning records, they will play just three squads that came in under the .500 mark last year (Buffalo, Tampa and Jacksonville).

Prediction: With not a soul behind Brady, mounting injuries and several question marks, I’ll have to bet this one Under 11.5 wins.

New York Jets: 7

Brett Favre was supposed to come into New York and bring the J-E-T-S to the next level as Super Bowl contenders in 2008. A shaky 3-3 start was quickly forgotten when the team reeled off five straight wins to put themselves into serious consideration for the division crown.

Week 13 was the beginning of the end for Gang Green though, as one win in the final five games, dropped them to a 9-7 record and out of the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

Favre’s arm proved to have trouble holding up for an entire season at his age and he once again retired after the 2008 season, only to recently change his mind once again and sign with the Vikings, presumably his desired location all along.

New York will look to take a different approach this year, by anointing rookie Mark Sanchez as the team’s starting QB, and developing him into the face and future of the franchise.

Sanchez will battle Kellen Clemons for starting duties, but it seems inevitable he should have a firm grasp on the job.

Perhaps just as big an acquisition as the drafting of Sanchez, was the hiring of ex-Ravens Defensive Coodinator Rex Ryan as Head Coach to replace the mercurial Eric Mangini.

Seen as a defensive genius for his years of orchestrating elite defences in Baltimore, Ryan brings instant credibility with him to the Jets sidelines.

In the Jets, Ryan inherits a team very similar to the one he left behind in Baltimore, partly because he raided the cupboards as he left and brought over LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard with him.

Leonhard, along with free agent CBs Lito Sheppard and Donald Strickland, will hope to improve upon New York’s 29th ranking against the pass last season.

Besides the familiar faces, the Jets are set up to run his favorite style of D, the 3-4 with massive Kris Jenkins entrenched at NT. The rest of the D is very solid in all positions with several burgeoning stars capable of playing up to the level of many of Ryan’s ex-Ravens.

On offense, the running game should be a strength with first-time Pro Bowler Thomas Jones, speedy Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene and easing Sanchez into NFL action should be nothing new for Rex Ryan after doing the same with Joe Flacco last year.

Unfortunately, a negative similarity would have to be in the passing game, where Jerricho Cotchery is the Jets' only proven weapon after Laveraneus Coles was granted his release.

Someone else will need to emerge opposite Cotchery or the Jets could face the same fate that befell the Ravens of ’08. They proved in the playoffs that being completely bereft of quality pass catching targets can only get you so far.

New York faces a similar challenge as do the Patriots, in that their schedule should be much tougher this year. The Jets played teams with a combined .470 winning percentage last season, good enough for the seventh easiest, while 2009 will pit them against the exact opposite with league’s seventh toughest.

That being said, with two games vs. each of Buffalo and Miami, and games against Oakland, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Cincy to name a few, the opportunities are there to at least put together a decent season.

I know Mark Sanchez is a rookie with limited starting experience, but this whole scenario in New York just looks all too similar to what happened in Baltimore last year.

This defence should be nothing short of solid, and as long as Sanchez or Clemens doesn’t self destruct under centre, I see no reason the Jets can’t be in line for at least a .500 season or better.

Prediction: Over 7 wins

Best Bet to Win Division: The bottom line is a team like the Jets are very much worth taking a look at here. After a 1-15 season the Dolphins claimed this division last year, Tom Brady’s shoulder could be in question, the Bills are improved with T.O but still a mess overall and the Pats are completely over priced anyways.

In my opinion this division is not wide open, but the gap is narrowing between the Pats and everyone else. At +850, the J-E-T-S are definitely worth a flyer and that’s where my money is going.

AFC North Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/241612-afc-north-betting-nfl-season-win-totals

AFC South Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/224690-afc-south-betting-nfl-season-win-totals

NFC North Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/212542-nfc-north-betting-nfl-season-win-totals

NFC West Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/188683-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-west

NFC East Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/194389-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-east

NFC South Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/201350-nfc-south-betting-the-nfl-season-win-totals

AFC South: Betting NFL Season Win Totals

Ryan Metivier — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 22:29:25 -0400

Over the next few weeks I will preview each NFL division from an over/under season win total perspective. All totals and odds to win division are courtesy of Bowmans.com, as current as the date the article is published. For additional division previews, please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC North, NFC South, NFC West and NFC East divisions.

Indianapolis: 10

With Peyton Manning getting virtually no practice time last offseason due to his bursa sac injury, Manning entered Week One rusty and the Colts lost easily to the Bears 29-13. The rocky start continued through Week Eight when Indy sat at an unimpressive 3-4. However the Colts flipped the switch starting the next week with a home win over New England, and then proceeded to follow up with eight more straight wins, to finish the season with a nine game winning streak and a 12-4 record. That magical streak came to an abrupt halt in the postseason though, as they fell in overtime to the Chargers.

Indy hasn’t had fewer than 12 wins in any of the past five seasons, and haven’t had as few as 10 wins since 2002; however, that number, 10, is exactly what bookmakers have lined them at for this coming season. In the eyes of some, that number may actually be too high. About a month ago, making a bet on over 10 wins was the more popular choice, at -135, with the under coming in at a plus price, at +105. Since then, money has been coming in on the under, with the under now sitting at -120, and over at -110.

Going into 2009, Indy returns basically the identical cast of '08 to the field. However, gone are RB Dominic Rhodes and future hall-of-famer Marvin Harrison. While Harrison has been Manning’s favorite target since '96, his production and health have slipped while his contract was going to be too expensive this year. Even with Harrison only receiving 636 years last year, the Colts' passing attack still ranked fifth in the league, in part due to the ample amount of options Manning still has in Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark and Gijon Robinson, to name a few. Also accounting for the Colts' high pass totals was the solid job the offensive line performed in pass protection, ranking third in sacks allowed.

The rushing attack ranked a measly 31^st last year and will surely miss Rhodes. However, Indy will be hoping rookie Donald Brown will be an adequate replacement and someone who can push starter Joseph Addai for playing time. Defensively, the Colts will have to tighten up their play versus the run, as they were a dismal 24^th, though they were very strong versus the pass, ranking sixth. If Bob Sanders, who only played in six regular season games last year, can remain healthy, his presence will help elevate the whole defense.

Of course, while the roster looks much the same as the '08 version, the coaching staff has undertaken a complete makeover. Tony Dungy has decided to pursue other interests at this stage of his life and both coordinators have also been replaced. Ron Meeks left for Carolina, and Tom Moore was forced into a consultant position to avoid losing his pension. The whole confusing situation saw the often reserved Manning speak out about his displeasure at the the lack of communication with the new coaching staff this offseason. New coach Jim Caldwell and offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen have been promoted from within, which should provide some stability; however, if the whole staff can’t come together collectively, Indy could be in for a frustrating year.

While this season’s schedule ranks slightly tougher at 13^th than what Indy ended up with at the end of '08, if you take a closer look, it’s certainly not daunting. Getting off to a decent start will be important as Indy plays two of their first three games, and four of the first seven, on the road. However, after a road game in St. Louis in Week Seven, Indy returns home for three straight weeks, then hits the road for games in Baltimore and Houston. Then again, each of those teams will be coming off short weeks having played on the Monday prior. The Colts then play two more straight home games, and finish the year alternating road and home dates, finishing with a season finale in Buffalo, which if this year is anything like recent years, may be a rather meaningless game for both teams, just for different reasons. One final point of the schedule is that they will have a very light travel schedule, only having to make one trip out of the Eastern or Central time zones, and that is in Week Three when they visit the Cardinals.

In my opinion, the Colts are still a very strong and dominant team. However, some of their luster has slowly been wearing off over the last couple years and some players have been wearing down with injuries. Stopping the run has been a consistent problem lately in Indianapolis and a completely new coaching staff can only be a hurdle, and not a blessing, when you consider who their predecessors were. The conference and division are no longer Indy’s for the taking, with lots of competition from perennial powerhouses, as well as improved play from several other teams. Even within their own division, the Titans and even the Texans, can now go punch-for-punch with the mighty Colts. While I don’t see Indy running away with anything and a repeat of last year’s 12 wins may be a tough sell, it’s hard to imagine a Peyton Manning lead Colts team failing to reach at least the 10 win mark.

Prediction: Over 10 wins

Tennessee: 9

After bottoming out in the middle of this decade in 2005 with four wins, the Titans have been on a steady ascent towards becoming one of the league's elite teams. Tennessee has improved their win totals to eight, ten and finally 13 during the last three seasons respectively.

All the pieces came together during the regular season in 2008, as the Titans roared out of the gates going 10-0 and laid claim to the league's best record, behind a strong run game, a phenomenal defense which allowed the second fewest points in the league and efficient, yet unspectacular play from QB Kerry Collins.

2008 saw the Titans rank in the top 10 of many major statistical categories on both sides of the ball, while also producing a +14 turnover differential, ranking only second behind the +17 of the Steelers. With Vince Young being either injured, depressed or uninterested to begin the year, Collins stepped in admirably, producing offense through the air was never the Titans' strength, as evidenced by their 27th ranking in passing offense. While Tennessee was able to get by with their other strengths during the regular season, the lack of a passing game proved to be their undoing in the playoffs. Despite thoroughly outplaying the Ravens in the AFC Divisional round, they could only manage 10 points in falling 13-10.

While they did face many quality opponents in the Steelers, Ravens, and Colts twice, to name a few, overall their opponents in 2008 only combined to win the fourth fewest games. This season, however, they are lined up to face a slightly tougher schedule, as theirs ranks 14th in difficulty.

Looking down their schedule, it would appear the Titans will need to be in top form early on, in order to remain near the top of the AFC standings. They will begin the year playing three of four on the road and the only time they face a team with a losing record from last year before Week Nine, will be the two times they face the Jaguars in Weeks four and eight. Three times this year they will also play teams coming off a bye and once, in Week 11, they will play on a short week on a Monday night in Houston with the Texans coming off their bye. It would be worth noting that while they kept it close in losing 13-12, Tennessee was completely outplayed in Week 15 last year in Houston. Things do get a bit better in the last month of the year as they play three in a row at home before closing out the year in Seattle.

Duplicating last year's results may be tough, as Tennessee will be without standout DT Albert Haynesworth, who signed a lucrative contract in Washington and Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz who took the head coaching job in Detroit. Some key additions will be DT Jovan Haye who'll look to fill Haynesworth's spot, and WR Nate Washington who'll look stretch the field the same way he did in Pittsburgh, to try and spark the passing attack. He could be helped by first round pick WR Kenny Britt who has the potential to start right away.

The Titans aren't going to sneak up on anybody in 2009, as they finally unseated the Colts as the top team in the AFC South. Losing Haynesworth and Schwartz are big losses, and in my opinion they've done little to improve the passing game. That being said, the Titans are still loaded with talent, and even with a slight dropoff from last year, they should still be in line to cover the number.

Prediction: Over 9 wins

Houston: 8

2008 was very much a season of ups and downs for the Houston Texans. Houston finally finished with a .500 record in 2007 and were hoping to improve by taking the next step forward last season. However, you could argue that the Texans were doomed from the get-go as they had to deal with Hurricane Ike. Players had their families and homes on their mind, and the team was evicted from Reliant Stadium for a home game in Week Two as the stadium was damaged and needed repairs. This meant that Houston was forced to take their bye week in Week Two and play 15 games in a row thereafter. It also meant that Houston wouldn't play their first home game until Week Five, which at that point they were already 0-3.

After losing that home game vs. Indy, the Texans went on a three game home winning streak, before dropping their next three, and then finishing strong winning four of five. That strong finish brought the Texans even at 8-8, however of their eight wins, only three of them came against teams with winning records.

This year, their schedule comes in at the middle of the pack ranking 15th in degree of difficulty. The Texans will have a good opportunity to get off to a good start as three of their opening four games will be on their home turf. If Houston can't put a couple wins together during that stretch, they may fall out of contention early on as four of their next five games will be on the road, where Houston's 2-6 road mark from last year, was in stark contrast to their 6-2 record at home.

Looking at which divisions they are lined up to face this year, they obviously play in an ultra-competitive AFC South, but they will also have to face all the teams from one of the most successful divisions last year, the AFC East. On the plus side, when they play out of conference, they will take on one of the softer NFC divisions; the West. Finally after having one of the earliest bye weeks ever last year for reasons mentioned previously, a bye week during Week 10 may come at the perfect time in order for Houston to rest up before entering the second half of the season.

Offensively, Houston has become one of the more potent units in the league, ranking 13th in rushing and fourth in passing. Led by QB Matt Schaub, standout WR Andre Johnson and rookie sensation Steve Slaton, the Texans should have the cornerstones of the offense in place. Unfortunately, Schaub has found it difficult to stay healthy and should he miss any significant amount of time the team could be in trouble. While in 2008 they had a turnover-prone, yet highly effective Sage Rosenfels at backup, he was not retained in free agency and has been replaced by Dan Orlovsky. Orlovsky couldn't cut it with the Lions and can be best remembered for forgetting how big the end zone was and running out of bounds last year.

Houston's crutch continued to be their problems with turnovers, finishing with a -10 differential, as well their overall play on the defensive side of the ball. The secondary ranked a marginal 17^th yet cut ties with several players this offseason, but the team was still 23rd vs. the rush and also 23rd in producing sacks.

They will look to improve things on this side of the ball with the several new additions to the front seven including Shaun Cody, Buster Davis and Cato June. Their prized free agent addition was DE Antonio Smith, who was lured away from the Super Bowl runner-up Cardinals, to provide more pressure opposite Mario Williams on the defensive line.

Last year the Texans split their divisional games with Tennessee and Jacksonville, but lost both to Indy, yet kept both games close. If they can look to improve to at least splitting these six games or potentially sweeping a team like Jacksonville who could struggle, they could already be halfway to equaling their projected win total. Even after dealing with Ike, no home games for a month and an awful start, Houston still rebounded to have a respectable year. The playoffs may still elude this squad in 2009 as unless you were the Broncos as winners of the AFC West with an 8-8 record, it took 11 wins just to qualify for the Wild Card last year. However, this year's schedule looks manageable in my opinion and I think we may see some improvement here.

Prediction: Over 8 wins

Jacksonville: 8

Entering last season the Jaguars were full of confidence and supposed to contend among the top teams in the AFC and challenge for the Super Bowl. Instead, the Jaguars took a huge step backwards by having their worst season since 2003. After winning three games and sitting at 3-3 going into their bye week, the Jags went completely in the tank by only winning two of their remaining 10 games to finish at a dismal 5-11.

Much of this could be attributed to widespread injuries, especially on the offensive line. The offense ranked fairly middle of the road both on the ground and through the air. In addition, they suffered in turnover differential at -7 and got scorched through the air when defending the pass, by ranking 24th.

Many changes have been made this offseason, with the team cutting ties with several players on both sides of the ball. The Jags have suffered without any big play receivers and the team finally showed the door to underachievers Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. Dennis Northcutt has also been traded to the Lions, which leaves you to wonder if the best this unit can hope for is addition by subtraction. WR Tory Holt was signed and will immediately become QB David Garrard's number one target, but he will be 33 and has been battling knee injuries at this stage of his career.

Mel Tucker comes over from Cleveland to become the Jags third defensive coordinator in as many years, and he may incorporate some of the 3-4 defense into a unit which struggled under Greg Williams 4-3 last year. Safety Sean Considine has also been signed to help in the secondary.

After seeing how much the offensive line struggled when injuries hit last year, new GM Gene Smith has tried to provide depth by signing OT Tra Thomas and drafting two O-linemen in the first two rounds of the draft in Eugene Monroe who could start at LT and Eben Britton.

Another reason Jacksonville may have struggled in '08 could be that their opponents had the fourth most wins in the league. Despite the Jags' poor results in '08, '09 still sees them playing the 11th toughest schedule with their opponents posting a .516 winning percentage. The Jags will need to be geared up and ready to go as soon as the season starts—as in their first four games—they will play all three of their divisional rivals, in addition to hosting the Cardinals in Week Two. Other points of interest are three straight games versus teams coming off bye weeks starting in Week Seven, and then three straight home games from Weeks 13-15.

Running back Maurice Jones-Drew will now be the main man running the ball in Jacksonville after Fred Taylor wasn't resigned and he may be the only star on this team right now. The Jags probably aren't too far removed from their 11-win campaign in 2007 and should bounce back a bit from last season barring another onslaught of injuries. However, there is little behind MJD in the backfield, the Jags will most likely start a rookie at LT, its anyone's guess who’ll emerge as the top receiving target, and the defense will be breaking in a new coordinator. The Jags should improve from last year, but to think they are going to improve by at least three to four wins seems far-fetched.

Prediction: Under 8 wins

Best bet to win division: This is a tough call in my opinion. The Colts and Titans should battle it out all year, but both have lost some key parts to their teams. Indy doesn’t offer much value at +162 and I think it’s kind of a toss-up between these two. However, at +300 I will go out on a limb and call out the Texans as the best “value” bet to win the AFC South. Personally, I’d proceed with caution and I think you can probably find better values in other divisions (like those in my gambling previews for the NFC, which you can find below).

NFC North Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/212542-nfc-north-betting-nfl-season-win-totals

NFC West Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/188683-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-west

NFC East Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/194389-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-east

NFC South Preview

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/201350-nfc-south-betting-the-nfl-season-win-totals

NFC North: Betting NFL Season Win Totals

Ryan Metivier — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:25:20 -0400

For additional division previews please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC South, NFC West and NFC East divisions.

Detroit: 5

By now the Lion’s 2008 season needs very little introduction. 0-16 was good enough for the NFL’s worst-ever record and almost by default this team can only get better.

Not only did the Lions lose, and lose often last year, they often did it in ugly fashion. They gave up 517 points, had a negative 249 point differential, and ranked almost rock-bottom in most major statistical categories.

One thing in Detroit’s favor was that, when things were all said and done, they had faced the league’s second toughest schedule, having faced opponents with a combined 143-113 record.

The theme for 2009 will be that of new faces and trying to create a winning culture for a franchise that has averaged less than five wins over the last five years and hasn’t even seen the .500 mark in eight years. For Detroit’s sake, hopefully this year’s schedule will be more accommodating as it sets up as only the 21st toughest.

The new faces are plentiful, starting with a new GM in Martin Mayhew, as the Matt Millen era finally comes to an end, a new coach in Jim Schwartz and new offensive and defensive coordinators in Scott Linehan and Gunther Cunningham, respectively.

Mass changes were made on both sides of the ball in an attempt to overhaul the roster and give Schwartz some better parts to work with.

Through the draft, the Lion’s nabbed three players who were arguably the best at their positions and could be starters on the team for years to come. QB Matthew Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew and S Louis Delmas will most likely be counted on to contribute at some point this season and could be keys to the revival of this dormant franchise.

Maurice Morris will join Kevin Smith in the backfield and Bryant Johnson should line up opposite Calvin Johnson.

Several potential backups along a marginal offensive line were added, but some such as Jon Jansen and Ephraim Salaam are on the wrong side of 30 and others like Tony Fonotiu haven’t played in the league since 2006. By and large, this group will look very similar to the unit which struggled to create space or time for the offense to operate in 2008.

The Lions' defense, while hard-pressed to be much worse than they were in 2008, may actually have the potential to be the team’s strength in '09. For years, WLB Ernie Sims has struggled with sub-par talent around him, however this year he will be joined by Julian Peterson and Larry Foote, both productive starters in the past for the Seahawks and Steelers, respectively.

The secondary has the potential to have three new starters come opening day if rookie Delmas gets a chance, as well as the additions of Phillip Buchanon from Tampa and Anthony Henry from Dallas.

One of the biggest and most glaring concerns for Detroit this year will be their defensive line. This unit contributed to the 32nd ranking versus the rush and 31st ranking in generating sacks on opposing QBs. While the LBs and secondary made several upgrades, this group remained mostly the same.

The lone key addition is DT Grady Jackson, who is still serviceable, but will be 35 this year and could have trouble holding up for an entire season. Should Jackson start, he will combine with fellow DT Chuck Darby to make half the starters on the line well over 30. Darby will be 33.

While the Lions' schedule is slated to be on the easier side this year, it’s by no means a walk in the park either. The first five weeks will see Detroit play no team with worse than an 8-8 record from last year, including the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers in Week Five.

The schedule does lighten up after that, and the Lion’s will have the benefit of playing four teams who will be coming off a short week having played a Monday nighter. Three of those games will be at Ford Field and three of them will take place during the last four weeks of the season, which could help the Lions finish strong.

The pieces are in place for a rebuilding process to begin, and Daunte Culpepper still has enough talent to manage this team until Stafford is ready to take the reins.

It’s not often that even a five-win improvement from the season before would still not be enough to get over the posted win total, however tis’ the case with this year’s Lions. Obviously Detroit won’t go 0-16 again and a four or five-win season seems very probable.

Stranger things have happened and a strong second half to the season could push them over this win total. However, this team had been far too bad, for far too long, for me to be confident trying to justify at least six wins for them this year.

Prediction: Five seems about right, so if I had to I’d bet Under the total, but would prefer to wait and see if the number goes up at all before the season begins.

Chicago: 8.5

The Chicago Bears remained competitive throughout the 2008 year and were on their way to securing a playoff spot with three straight home wins in Weeks Fourteen to Sixteen. However, when their playoff hopes came down to the final game of the year, they came up just short by losing in Houston 31-24.

By now, we know that Chicago made arguably the biggest splash this offseason by trading for disgruntled ex-Bronco QB Jay Cutler. A lack of offense has been the achilles heel in Chicago for the past number of years, and passing attacks led by Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton have come up short in gaining Chicago elite status.

Cutler brings with him all the tools necessary to revive an offense, however his new stomping ground won’t offer up nearly the quality of receiving options as the Broncos did.

Devin Hester has the speed to take advantage of Cutler’s cannon arm, however he has yet to prove he can be a consistent No. 1 receiving option, after making a name for himself as a returner. Hester’s stat line read 51 catches for 665 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, hardly the kind of production you are looking for in a No. 1 wideout.

TE Greg Olson has shown he can be dangerous but he alone won’t be enough. Should Cutler miss any time to injury, panic will rip through the Windy City, as there are no budding stars or wily veterans waiting in the wings as backups.

Cutler may have to take a back seat to the running game, as the Bears look to have a star for years to come with Matt Forte. In only his rookie season, Forte amassed the seventh most rushing yards in the league while also adding 477 yards receiving. For all Forte’s accomplishments though, the Bears still ranked a dismal 24th in rushing and 21st in passing.

With Cutler under centre now, Forte may see a little extra space as opposing defenses will have to respect the deep ball.

The offensive line was restocked, as the team said goodbye to Terrence Metcalf and John St. Clair and welcomed Orlando Pace, Frank Omiyale and Kevin Shaffer into the mix. In Pace, C Olin Kreutz and RG Roberto Garza, the Bears will have three starters in their thirties, so keeping this group healthy and fresh will be a priority.

A defense which remained strong versus the rush, ranking fifth, yet poor versus the pass, ranking 30th, will return essentially the same group as last year. The only major noteworthy additions are LB Pisa Tinoisamoa and FS Josh Bullocks.

Obviously the secondary must improve, but the once vaunted D is slowly on the decline. This group will see a few faces move into their 30s and many more enter the 2009 season coming off poor performances in 2008. This is no longer the feared group of defenders that lost in the Super Bowl not too long ago, and a 29th ranking in sacks is further evidence.

The schedule makers were very kind to the Bears in 2009, as they have been blessed with the league’s easiest schedule. Chicago will only play six teams with winning records from last year and their combined opponent’s records from ’08 is only 105-149-2. Chicago also avoids playing any teams coming off a bye and only has to play two games off short weeks of rest.

There’s a very real chance Brett Favre could un-retire again and steal the spotlight away from Cutler in the NFC North, but for the time being Cutler has the chance to be the star of this division.

While having the Lions on your schedule twice will certainly contribute to an easy schedule ranking, there are definitely enough winnable games for the Bears in ’09. That being said, teams can improve quickly in the NFL and many of their opponents will probably be better than their 2008 records would imply. I believe Chicago has many great pieces in place, however, collectively, I think they are on the decline.

The window is far from shut though, and getting over this win total for at least another 9-7 season or better looks manageable.

Prediction: Over 8.5 wins

Minnesota: No Line Yet

As of the time of this writing, there has still been no number set for the Vikings for a season win total, which has to be because of the uncertainty of the status of Brett Favre.

Given that Minnesota is favored to win this division at +162, followed very nearly by the Bears at +188, and taking into consideration the Bears over/under is 8.5 and the Packers is 9, my best guess would say the Vikings number should be about 9.5.

Should Favre be deemed fit enough for NFL competition and the worst kept secret becomes a reality with him joining the Vikes, I could see the number rising to anywhere from 10-11 wins.

After stumbling out of the gate last season at 1-3, the Vikings proceeded to only lose three more games all year to finish with a 10-6 record and the NFC North division crown. Much of their success could be attributed to their strong finish to the year, winning five of their final six games.

Home field advantage didn’t prove to be enough though in the playoffs, as Minnesota bowed out early in the Wildcard round losing 26-14 to the Eagles.

The Vikings are a squad that’s most likely only a couple small pieces away from a championship-caliber team.

They boast quite possibly the strongest 1-2 punch of running backs in the league in Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, a serviceable WR corps which added rookie Percy Harvin through the draft, and the top-ranked rush defense, which also has the ability to put opposing QBs in the dirt on every play.

Management decided to change very little this offseason, making no major additions save swapping out backup QB Gus Frerotte for ex-Texan backup Sage Rosenfels. It will be a battle all training camp as to whether Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson gets to start in 2009, however as mentioned earlier, that could all change if Brett Favre joins to the team for another kick at the can.

The Fave saga could be detrimental to the mental psyche of the QBs on the roster right now, as the Vikings very public interest in Favre is certainly not a glowing endorsement to the players they have.

While the offensive line did a great job clearing space for the running game in '08, they were 28th in allowing sacks and will potentially be breaking in two new starters in John Sullivan at centre and rookie Phil Loadholt at right tackle.

Other than improving the 25th-ranked passing offence, the major concern going into the season is the likely suspensions of both of Kevin and Pat Williams on the defensive line. Tyrell Johnson did a decent job when called upon last year, and he will be taking over at safety for the departed Darren Sharper.

Minnesota’s opponents ranked middle of the of pack record-wise after the season ended in 2008, and this year three quarters of the NFC North will play the league’s easiest schedule. Minnesota comes in at 31st, with Green Bay at 30th, and as mentioned earlier Chicago at 32nd. Looking at their travel schedule, it may be one of the easiest in the league as well, as they only play one game outside of either the Central or Eastern time zones.

The Vikings haven't improved at all over last year. Even if Favre comes aboard, I don’t think he will be a huge upgrade under center. This is a player who wore out during last season, will be 40 in October, threw just as many interceptions as touch downs, and hasn’t been able to fully practice as he recovers from a bicep surgery this offseason.

Favre was not the answer in New York and one year later, I don’t see any different scenario playing out in Minnesota. It’s hard to make a prediction not knowing what the line will be, but given the uncertainly at QB, possible suspensions, new players on the o-line and the upgrades their division rivals have made, making a strong case for the Vikes seems difficult.

Prediction: I will go out on a limb and say the Vikes regress, and would bet the Under, if the line is 9 or higher.

Green Bay: 9

A quick 2-0 start and a 4-3 record going into their bye in Week Eight had the Packers in a position to do some damage moving into the second half of the season. Unfortunately

Green Bay was only able to win two of their remaining nine games, and only one of their last six, with the one win coming in their season finale against the Lions. The game was essentially meaningless for both teams in regards to the playoffs, except that Green Bay wanted to avoid being the only team to lose to the Lions in 2008.

If you look at the games Green Bay won, their 6-10 record looks even less impressive, as two of those wins came vs. the Lions and another vs. the 4-12 Seahawks.

As mentioned earlier, the Packers face the third easiest schedule this season, so the potential to improve upon last year and get closer to their 2007 record of 13-3 is definitely there.

Travel-wise, their schedule also shapes up nicely with only one game played outside of the Central and Eastern time zones, and besides divisional games, they only play three teams on the road who had winning records last year: Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Arizona.

The biggest change this offseason was the hiring of Dom Capers as defensive coordinator and the switch to the 3-4 defense he will be implementing. The change will hope to improve upon Green Bay’s 26th ranking versus the rush and 25th ranking in generating sacks.

The secondary was respectable as they ranked 12th versus the pass.

No major changes were made to the roster, besides DT Colin Cole’s departure. However, RT Mark Tauscher may not return as he suffered a major knee injury in tearing his ACL. Several other players will be returning from injuries sustained during 2008, which could be enough to bring the Packers back to prominence.

Offensively, Aaron Rogers proved he could step up more than adequately in his first year as Brett Favre’s successor. He ranked third in the NFC in passing yards, TDs and QB rating.

WR Greg Jennings should be motivated to improve upon his career highs in 2008 as he just signed a new, lucrative contract extension. However, running backs, namely Ryan Grant, will have to do more than the four touchdowns they managed last season.

The NFC North should be a tightly contested division all year as, in my opinion, the Packers, Vikings and Bears don’t give up much between them. Their difficulty of schedules are all about the same and each have their own question marks heading into the year.

In the NFL you are never as good or as bad as your record may indicate from one year to the next, and I think that may be the case with this year’s edition of the Packers. Sure they switched from Favre to Rogers in 2008, but Rogers was not responsible for the seven-win slide the team took.

The schedule shapes up nicely and there’s enough talent in Green Bay to make a decent improvement.

Prediction: Over 9 wins

Best bet to win division: Green Bay Packers at +200

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/188683-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-west

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/194389-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-east

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/201350-nfc-south-betting-the-nfl-season-win-totals

NFC East: Betting the NFL Season Win Totals

Ryan Metivier — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 15:26:21 -0400

Over the next few weeks I will preview and predict each NFL team's season by offseason moves, 2009 schedules, and predicted season win totals. This edition will discuss the NFC East. Win totals courtesy of Sportsbook.com and may have changed slightly since time of writing.

Dallas Cowboys: Nine

The Cowboys were a team with high expectations in 2008 and a 1-3 finish to their season saw them finish with a 9-7 record and out of playoff contention. In the season finale, with the playoffs on the line, the Cowboys turned in a stinker as they got blown away in Philadelphia 44-6 in large part due to five turnovers.

Instead of bringing in more big names in the offseason, Dallas opted for a potential addition by subtraction. In one of the biggest moves in the NFL during this offseason, WR Terrell Owens was cut loose, only to quickly sign with the Buffalo Bills. Clearly, management believed Owens many off-field distractions outweighed his on-field production.

Say what you want about the circus that follows T.O. wherever he goes, however there is little denial that the man produces. He also commands extra attention from opposing defenders and creates space for his teammates when he gets double-teamed.

Without Owens, the team will have to find a way to replace his 1,052 yards receiving and 10 TDs from 2008. It will be an opportunity for a player like Roy Williams to prove he was worth the large sum Dallas gave up to trade for him midseason last year. WRs Patrick Crayton and Isaiah Stanback will also need to step up if they want to have any success through the air, as TE Jason Witten will not be able to do it all.

Should Tony Romo go down for any extended period of time, the team will now have a younger replacement for him as they cut backup QB Brad Johnson and traded CB Anthony Henry to Detroit to acquire Jon Kitna. Other key additions are ex-Jag FS Gerald Sensabaugh and ex-Chargers DE Igor Olshansky to replace the departed Chris Canty.

Offensively, the Cowboys will lean heavily on their running game as the collection of Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice could be one the strongest backfields in the game.

Their offensive line will also remain intact and should be a strength in 2009. For Dallas to rise to the top of the conference, they will need their defense to be as dominant as they were last year again. Dallas was fourth defending the pass and first in sacks for while being a respectable 13th versus the run.

In addition to Canty and Henry, gone are defenders Zach Thomas, Tank Johnson, Kevin Burnett, SS Roy Williams, and Adam Jones. LB Greg Ellis is also expected to be cut or traded anytime now as well. This could be an issue with so many new faces needing to plug holes on D.

In 2009, Dallas will face the league’s 11th toughest schedule facing opponents with a .518 winning percent from last year. Because of their geographical location and the fact they host several West Coast teams, the Cowboys have been spared from any major cross-country travels.

They will be featured in primetime on several occasions as they play three Sunday night games, one Monday nighter, and then a Thursday and Saturday night game. The fact that they’re facing a tough schedule in 2009 has a lot to do with their division as every team finished .500 or over in '08. Their division will face the AFC West this season though, which should be one of the easiest divisions this year.

In my opinion, Dallas will fall somewhere as an 8-10 win team in 2009. There are enough opportunities for them to pick up wins, but playing in such a tough division will hold them back from being elite in '09. In addition to their own division rivals, they face tough competition in Carolina, Atlanta, San Diego, and the always-potent New Orleans Saints' offense in New Orleans.

Personally, I would probably stay away from making a season win total bet with the Cowboys, but would lean to under nine wins.

New York Giants: 10

The Giants got off to a blazing start in 2008, winning their first four games and were far and away one of the league’s top teams through Week 13 with an 11-1 record.

The G-Men still finished the regular season as the NFC’s best team with a 12-4 record, but they stumbled badly down the stretch, losing three of their last four games and eventually made a quick exit during the NFC Divisional Playoff round with a 23-11 loss to the Eagles.

New York ranked high statistically in several major categories, as they boasted both a top-10 rush and pass defense. They were also fifth in sacks, which should continue to be a strength this year as well.

Getting things done through the air often posed problems for Eli Manning and company, as they only ranked 18th in passing yards. The absence of TE Jeremy Shockey, an injured David Tyree, and numerous distractions/injuries/suspensions which came with Plaxico Burress surely didn’t help matters.

When Plax was on the field though, he contributed and made opposing D’s respect the pass. In 2009 the Giants passing game could face even more struggles. Gone are Burress and Amani Toomer, and New York will now look for players like Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, Domenik Hixon, Tyree, and rookie Hakeem Nicks to step up and fill the void left by those veterans.

The run game should remain intact and a threat, assuming Brandon Jacobs stays healthy, as they’ll look to form a new version of their Earth, Wind, Fire rotation from 2008. Derrick Ward left via free agency for Tampa but Danny Ware will look to step up and join Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to form a potent trio.

On D, the Giants will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator in Bill Sheridan, however, an already stacked lineup looks to have gotten stronger this offseason. With the return of Osi Umenyiora from injury and the additions of Chris Canty, Rocky Bernard, and Michael Boley to an already star-studded group of D-linemen and LBs, the Giants may have one of the most impressive front sevens in the league.

The secondary saw the departures of S Sammy Knight and CB Sam Madison, but the addition of ex-Texans SS C.C. Brown. FS Kenny Phillips will also look to build upon his impressive rookie year in 2008 as he looks to solidify a spot in the starting lineup.

New York’s schedule in 2009 will rank as the league’s 10th most difficult. They begin the year with a tough stretch of four their first six games being on the road, yet overall on the year, they will never have to travel farther than a trip to Denver in Week 12.

The Giants will also have the benefit of playing some weaker teams in the AFC West and will have the advantage of hosting three West Coast teams making the long trip across the country when they play Oakland, Arizona, and San Diego at Giants Stadium.

Getting enough production from their receiving corps could be a problem in 2009, however the Giants running game and D should continue to be huge strengths for them. Last year left a bitter taste in New York after what had been a fantastic season. I believe the opportunities should be there for a similar season this year and that the G-Men will go over their posted win total of 10.

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5

Philadelphia just barely made it into the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2008 with a 9-6-1 record and then proceeded on a run to the NFC Conference Championship. They proved their doubters wrong as they pulled off upset wins in Minnesota and New York against the Giants before just coming up short in Arizona in 32-25 loss for their chance at a trip to the Super Bowl.

The Eagles' push towards the playoffs was a direct effect from how they ended off their regular season. A 4-1 record in their last five games put them on a roll which took them deep into the playoffs. The Eagles' difficulty of schedule will be quite comparable between this year and last. Last year, their opponents won 131 games, while this year they will face teams which won a combined 137 games last season.

The 2009 schedule doesn’t shape up to pose too many travel concerns or short weeks, however they will travel from a game in Oakland in Week 6 back across the country for a game in Washington the week after. This may pose a problem, because if there was one team Philly struggled with in 2008, it was the Redskins. While the Eagles split their games with their other divisional foes, they went 0-2 vs the 'Skins, including a real stinker in Week 16 with a 10-3 loss.

In my opinion, the Eagles will have to work on staying fresh throughout the year and hope for few major injuries. The injuries are already starting though, as RB Brian Westbrook looks like he will be shelved for the duration of the offseason as he’s having ankle surgery.

Keeping players like Westbrook in the lineup will be paramount to improving the Eagles 22nd ranking in rush yards from last year. The Eagles face a stretch of games from Week Seven to 14, where they play eight games against only one team that finished below .500 last year. That team is the Chicago Bears, and with Jay Cutler behind center now, they should definitely be improved. With an early bye in Week Four, this tough stretch of games could have a huge impact on how the Eagles season turns out.

Philadelphia made the effort this offseason to make some significant moves in hopes of taking that next step this year. They fortified an already strong offensive line by bringing in OTs Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews. The Eagles have one of the bulkiest O-lines in the game as they are looking at a potential starting five averaging 6’5" and 333 pounds.

Rookie WR Jeremy Maclin will look to provide McNabb with another quality target while RB LeSean McCoy could see extended minutes should Westbrook be forced to miss any time.

The Eagles second-ranked secondary will have some new faces joining the mix which may make it hard for them to duplicate their 2008 results.

To start with, the status of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson remains in question as he deals with a case of skin cancer. Gone will be Lito Sheppard, Sean Considine and Brian Dawkins, either through trade of free agency and current starting CB Sheldon Brown has been staying away from camp so far, as he’s unhappy with his contract. Insert CB Ellis Hobbs, and safeties Rashad Baker and Sean Jones to fill the voids.

The Eagles overall have made quite a few nice upgrades throughout their roster as they embark upon the 2009 year. They are fairly solid on all ends of the field and should see some similar success to 2008.

However Westbrook is the spoon that turns the pot in Philly and his current injury status already has to be at least slightly concerning when looking to bet the Eagles 2009 season. Their division should beat up on each other all year and with my projections of the Giants and Dallas to also have successful years, it will be hard for there to be three teams with nine-plus wins again this year coming from the NFC East.

I envision Philly getting off to a very strong start, however they will stumble through Weeks Seven to 14 as I touched on earlier, making them a team I would bet under the 9.5.

Washington Redskins: Eight

The 2008 season saw the Redskins get off to an impressive 6-3 start, which kept them within striking distance of the NFC’s top teams.

However, things took a decided turn for the worst after their bye week in Week 10. After their bye, Washington only managed two more wins on the year to see their season nosedive to an 8-8 record and just barely out of playoff contention.

They’ll get an average strength of schedule this year as their ‘09 opponents bring a .492 winning percent and 125-129-2 record with them from 2008. Some points of interest throughout their schedule include being featured twice at home on a Monday night and also having the benefit of playing three teams who will be coming off Monday nighters and short weeks when they play the 'Skins.

One travel note to take into consideration will be after the Skins host the Saints on a Monday night in Week 13, they then have to travel to Oakland for their game the next week. A short week and a long travel could have an effect on them there.

The big concern going into 2009 will be if Jason Campbell can perform to the level he needs to for the 'Skins to reach the next level. The team has a good amount of talent around him, however the passing game was a definite weakness in ‘08 as Washington ranked 22nd in passing yards.

Management didn’t show much confidence in their starting signal caller this offseason as they publicly showed interest in both Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez. How Campbell responds to this kind of controversy could make or break his year.

While Washington may have finished at the bottom of the NFC East last year, offensively they may have some of the most talented players, or at least the most experienced.

With Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer being let go in New York, Terrell Owens being traded out of Dallas, and Philadelphia lacking a true, proven veteran, Santana Moss and Antwan Randle El could be some of the top receivers in the division, not counting the potential for many of the division’s youngsters like Jeremy Maclin. Along with new addition Roydell Williams and mainstay Chris Cooley, Washington has the potential to improve on last year’s poor passing numbers.

In the areas Washington struggled last year, they made the effort to upgrade those spots in the offseason. Washington ranked 21st in sacks allowed, so gone is tackle Jon Jansen and in are UFAs Derrick Dockery and Jeremy Bridges.

On the other side of the ball, the 'Skins ranked a poor 27th in sacks for and made a huge splash in free agency by signing Albert Haynesworth to clog up the middle of the field and allow his teammates to get more pressure on the QB. They drafted a potential instant starter in Brian Orakpo, brought in UFA DE Renaldo Wynn and cut ties with their one-year experiment of Jason Taylor.

Washington’s running game remains intact, as well as their secondary, and all but Marcus Washington in the LB corps. The 'Skins had a strong run game and already ranked high against rushing the pass.

With the improvements they’ve made and the potential I see for some of their stars, like many teams, if their QB can have a productive year, they should be a force in 2009, which will be lead me to bet over the eight wins.

For a preview of the NFC West check out my other article: NFC West: Betting the NFL Season Win Totals

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/188683-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-west

OHL Championship Series Finals Preview

Ryan Metivier — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 20:14:48 -0400

Two of the OHL’s top teams during the regular season continued their dominance throughout the playoffs and are set to face-off in the Roger’s OHL Championship Series starting on Wednesday. The Windsor Spitfires were the top ranked team from the West and defeated Owen Sound, Plymouth and London on their way to winning the Wayne Gretzky Trophy and claiming their spot in the finals.

The Brampton Battalion sat second in the East after the regular season and outlasted Peterborough, Mississauga St. Michaels and the east’s top ranked Belleville Bulls to take home the Bobby Orr Trophy and advance to the finals.

A trip to the finals and the OHL’s centre stage will be relatively new territory for both of these teams. The Spitfires will be making their first appearance in 21 years, while the Battalion are making their first trip during their 11 year franchise history. However both teams took a similar route through the playoffs thus far. Each swept their opening round series 4-0 and followed that up with 4-2 series wins in the second round.

As the OHL’s top ranked seed, Windsor has earned the right to host Game One at the W.F.C.U. Centre. In the Western Finals, Windsor came out of a hard fought battle against John Tavares and the London Knights with a 4-1 series win. However the games were much closer, featured several lead changes and comebacks and all five needed overtime to decide a winner.

In a high scoring series, the Spitfires prevailed by outscoring London 23-20. During game five, Windsor outshot London 53-44 and Eric Wellwood, brother of NHLer Kyle, tallied his second game-winning goal of the series to eliminate the Knights.

Brampton needed one extra game to come out of the East Finals as they put away the Bulls 4-2. Brampton got out to a quick 2-0 lead in the series and eventually went up 3-1 until Belleville staved off elimination with 3-2 double overtime victory in Game 5.

The Bulls made a valiant effort in Brampton during Game 6 by taking a 3-2 lead into the third period, but five goals by the Battalion resulted in a 7-4 Brampton win and the elimination of the East’s top team during the regular season. Battalion forward Matt Duchene recorded a hat trick and the game’s winning goal to avoid a potential Game 7 back in Belleville.

During the regular season Windsor got the best of the Battalion winning both games between the two, by 5-3 and 6-3 scores. Each team allowed twenty goals during the Conference round and Brampton recorded three more goals then Windsor by scoring 26. Finding much of a difference between the two teams may end there though.

Both squads are heavily represented in the top ten point getters during this years playoffs. The top seven scorers are either from Windsor or Brampton, with 8-10 being occupied by London Knights. Tied atop the leaders are Spitfires Taylor Hall and Ryan Ellis, as well as Battalion captain Cody Hodgson, all with 27 points.

Between the pipes neither team gives up much either as both starting goalies have posted similar stats. In 16 appearances Brampton’s Thomas McCollum has faced 436 shots, allowed 44 goals, has one shut out, a 2.62 GAA and a .899 save percentage. On the Windsor side Andrew Engelage has played in 15 games, faced 419 shots, allowed 43 goals, owns a 3.18 GAA and .897 save percentage.

In addition to taking home the J. Ross Robertson Cup as the winners of the Championship series, the winners will also represent the OHL at the 2009 MasterCard Memorial Cup. The Memorial Cup will kick off in Rimouski, Quebec starting on May 16 against the champions from the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League.

T.O. To the Buffalo Bills: When Opposites Attract

Ryan Metivier — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 15:52:14 -0400

In a move that will most certainly highlight the Bills to rest of the league and fans in 2009, the Buffalo Bills made a bold splash into the free agent market by landing Terrell Owens.

The traditionally small market team with limited star power, will have to get used to the increased media attention and possible distractions a player like T.O. brings with him. Owens playing at The Ralph is a very exciting proposition, however will this new relationship work for both team and player?

For the Bills, adding a potential future Hall of Famer to their rather pedestrian passing attack can only be a positive. So far, James Hardy has been a disappointment and defenders have been able to double team Lee Evans and stack the line to stop the run against Buffalo.

With T.O. playing opposite Evans, quarterback Trent Edwards should be able to open up the playbook more often. Reports are that season ticket holders are re-upping and fans are going crazy—T.O. crazy—in Buffalo already. From a marketing stand point this move looks to be already paying dividends.

However, the Bills' offense is most likely the least productive offense T.O. will have played in. Last season the team finished last in the AFC East, they only managed more than 200 yards through the air once in the final eight weeks of the year. Evans barely went over 1000 yards and managed only three touchdowns.

Typically, those kinds of numbers aren’t exactly what keeps T.O. in a good mood. In better situations, although successful statistically, he was unable to win a Super Bowl with San Francisco, Philadelphia or Dallas.

Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, and Tony Romo are also head and shoulders above what Trent Edwards has shown so far. So the question becomes how long will Owens stay positive if the Bills don’t improve in 2009?

The task won’t be easy as their fellow AFC East counterparts should all be improved. New England should have Brady back, the Dolphins are improving and now have a year of success under their belts and the Jets have also been busy in free agency, adding ex-Raven linebacker Bart Scott.

T.O. also won’t be the No. 1 target anymore which may not be to his liking. With a team devoid of many other big names, who will step up and get in T.O.’s face if he gets out of hand, and how will a young Edwards deal with the pressure of pleasing T.O.?

On the bright side is the contract—a one-year deal for $6.5 million. If things don’t work out they wouldn't have have broken the bank and will be able to wash their hands quickly. Also, despite his apparent arguments about Tony Romo and Jason Witten’s relationship last year, since his release all his ex-Cowboys teammates and coaches who have spoken have had nothing but positives to say about him as a teammate and player.

Overall, Owens as a Bill just doesn’t seem to fit and it could be a disaster if the Bill’s can’t make a serious playoff push or if Edwards struggles at all. It will be exciting though and fun to watch. If nothing else it will make for some catchy headlines such as “T.O. lands in T.O.” when Buffalo makes its annual trip to Toronto as part of the Bills in Toronto series.

NHL Play-Ons and Fades: Feb. 12

Ryan Metivier — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 23:37:15 -0500

NHL PLAY-ON OF THE WEEK

NEW YORK RANGERS

The Rangers have been hot and cold all year and since the All-Star break they’ve been exceptionally abysmal. After a home win to the Canes, the Blueshirts have reeled off five straight losses until last night's win, while being outscored 22-5 during those five losses.

Granted, 10 of those goals came in a 10-2 meltdown to the Stars this past Friday, however they’ve also been shut out twice and lost to two other struggling teams in the Pens and Thrashers.

However, as bad as a 10-2 thumping must feel, anybody with some semblance of self-respect is going to want to respond and get things back on the right track after an embarrassment like that. While they followed that game up with a 3-0 loss to the Devils, New York was certainly in the game and seemed to have some energy.

Last night they finally got off the snide, giving Washington all they could handle and came out on top 5-4 in a shoot-out.

Originally I was looking shorter term for the Rangers to be a play-on team for the next week of so, however looking over their schedule for the rest of February leads me to believe they have a good chance to make their backers some money for the rest of the month.

Firstly, the Rangers next game at Florida on Friday looks like it could shape up quite nice for them. The Rangers have too much talent to keep their losing ways going much longer and the Panthers could be just the tonic. Florida will be coming off a divisional game the night before in Carolina and it will also be their third game in four nights.

At first glance the Panthers may look to have things going in the right direction since the All-Star break going 6-2. However besides a 3-2 win over Philly and just now tonight over Carolina, the other four wins came over a struggling Habs squad, one over the Islanders and two over the titanic of a franchise which is the Toronto Maple Leafs.

One of their losses also came at the hands of the Isles, marking the Panthers inconsistency to continually beat other bad teams.

Back to the Rangers, after the aforementioned Florida game, they host the Flyers, travel to St. Louis, host the Isles, and travel to Buffalo two Saturdays from now. If you look a bit farther down the road, to close out the month, they have a home-and-home with the Leafs, and then host the Panthers and Avs to close out the month of February. It can be argued that the only quality opponent they’ll face over this time is Philadelphia.

I look for the Rangers to be a strong Play-On team for me for the rest of month and should definitely post a winning a record throughout that time.

NHL FADE OF THE WEEK

FLORIDA PANTHERS

I was having a tough time finding a suitor for this section until I started analyzing the Rangers for my Play-On section. As previously mentioned, I feel the Rangers will be in a good spot come Friday night against the Panthers.

Not that consistently backing poor teams is ever a good strategy, but to go back to Florida, that game Friday may be where the wheels start to come off this month. I actually liked the Canes tonight over Florida, however, they turned up a huge egg losing 5-0.

However like I said most of Florida’s recent wins haven’t been that impressive. Dramatic maybe, but having to claw themselves back into two games against Toronto, in which they found themselves in a big hole early doesn’t instill too much confidence.

After the New York game, this is where things could start to get real ugly for the Cats. I find it hard to believe any team will face a tougher second half of February, as Florida will meet opponents with a combined 242-102-13-25 record (at the time of this writing).

This will include a game against the Southeast leading Caps, two each vs fellow East division leaders New Jersey and Boston, a game vs Chicago, and another with the Rangers again. In fact, March doesn’t look much brighter with a trip to Washington on the first of the month.

Florida has certainly been cashing a lot of tickets since the break, but it says here the gravy train is over and reality will set back in quite soon. I strongly recommend fading the Panthers for the time being.

NHL's Play Ons and Fades

Ryan Metivier — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 01:45:20 -0500

This section will take a brief look at a few NHL teams for which I feel there will be decent wagering options on in the coming week. There are some teams should be avoided, while others could be catching fire.

I’m by no means saying these teams will win or lose every game they play in the coming week or so, however if you bet against or for each of these teams every game over their next few, you should profit.

Play on

Tampa Bay Lightning

While this recent money maker could start to cool down soon, they should be good for a few more upset wins coming up. Don’t look now but the Bolts are 10 points out of a playoff spot and have won six of their last nine games.

Before Thursday’s 3-2 loss to Carolina, they had scored 14 goals in their previous three games. While the Flyers should be a tough challenge on Friday, Tampa has already beaten them 2-1 and 4-1, and took Philly to OT in a 4-3 loss.

Outside of the Philadelphia game, Tampa will face the Islanders twice, a struggling Pittsburgh squad, the Thrashers, and the down-trodden Leafs.

Because of Tampa’s awful start, don't be surprised to find some decent plus money on them in several of these games.

Teams to fade

Chicago Blackhawks

Before Thursday’s game, the Hawks had struggled, having lost five of their last nine games. The Blackhawks will play most game their remaining games at home for the final two months of the season.

However, the Blackhawks must first endure what could be an awful road trip. Starting with their game against the Anaheim Ducks, the Hawks will play 12 of their next 14 games on the road. They’re currently losing to LA, then travel to the West-leading Sharks.

It doesn’t get any easier after that with a trip throughout Western Canada.

Detroit Red Wings

It’s always a risky proposition to bet against the Wings, and given their upcoming schedule, there are some opportunities to get things back on track. That being said, they are going into Washington on Saturday, as Detroit tries to snap its four-game skid.

After Washington they’ll take on the Blues, Coyotes, Oilers, and Pens.

Surely, this losing streak won’t continue much longer. However, Detroit has already lost to Phoenix during this skid and a couple more losses in the next week shouldn’t surprise many hockey fans.

NFL Conference Championship Predictions: Shredding the Spread

Ryan Metivier — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 01:41:40 -0500

Philadelphia @ Arizona – 3 PM EST

Two teams that looked to have the least chance of advancing deep into this year’s playoffs now find themselves one win away from the Super Bowl as the Eagles and Cardinals face off this Sunday afternoon.

The obvious choice here seems to be Philadelphia as they are the more experienced team and are coming off an impressive win against the defending champs last week.

The line opened at Philly -3, which was the highest line for a road favourite in the Conference Finals since the 1979 LA Rams were -3.5 @ Tampa. The -3.5s didn’t stay up for long as it quickly jumped to -4 and has stayed there all week. Recently there’s a few -3.5s popping back up.

The Eagles are the popular choice as I’ve found them taking public action anywhere from 51-71 percent at several sites which record such info.

It should be noted that overall the Eagles may have had an easier schedule throughout the season despite playing in the tough NFC East as their opponents had a .492 winning %, while the Cards faced opponents with a .536 winning mark.

The Cards got waxed by the Eagles back in week 13 to the tune of 48-20. However that game was in Philly and long before the Cards decided to start running the ball like they have in the playoffs.

Just like vs the Giants, the Eagles will concede a large size advantage to Arizona’s offensive line.

However this didn’t seem to matter as Philly’s quick, aggressive and undersized defense were able to stop the Giants on several key drives. This included two crucial short fourth-down conversions where the larger Giants should’ve been able to easily push forward.

Where size may come into play is the matchup of Cards WRs Fitzgerald 6'3" and Boldin 6'1", both well over 200 pounds taking on a much smaller Eagle secondary. Boldin should be playing this week, which will be a huge lift even though Fitzgerald had no problem shredding the Panthers D on his own last week.

While it’s impressive that both teams have made it this far, I wouldn't call either’s path to the Conference Finals flashy. Arizona’s shocking blowout of Carolina deserves huge marks, but let’s be honest, they were aided in large part by an epically horrendous performance by Jake Delhomme who almost single-handedly lost his team the game.

The Panthers also for some reason abandoned the run which is their strong suit, which played in Arizona’s favour. On the Eagle’s part, final scores aside, they’ve need late fourth-quarter surges to make it this far.

They lead the Vikes 16-14 going into the fourth until a PR TD and late FG gave them the 26-14 win. In New York they lead 13-11 going into fourth until scoring 10 points again in the fourth to pull away.

What’s interesting is that the Giants missed two field goals and got stopped on two forth downs which could’ve made the score closer. In fact, had they not missed the field goals maybe Tom Coughlin wouldn’t have felt the need to go for it on fourth and turn the ball over.

The Eagle’s have also been getting it done without a strong running game as Westbrook hasn’t exceeded 53 yards on the ground since Dec 7. Vs the G-men he was held to a number matching his jersey, 36 yards.

In reading previews throughout the week I stumbled onto one that mentioned that Westbrook’s knee has been so bad he has trouble walking up to the podium for press conferences. His backup Corell Buckhalter has also been limited in practice this week with a knee injury of his own.

With what looks to be a very limited running game in Philly, going against a Card’s team finding success in passing, rushing, on defense and playing at home, I’m going out on a limb and calling the upset at Arizona +4

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Baltimore @ Pittsburgh – 6:30 PM EST

This game is a tough call for me. I have action with futures bets for the Ravens to win the AFC and also to win the Super Bowl. When Baltimore won last week, I was hoping to be able to hedge out and guarantee profit by taking their opponent on the money line.

I was hoping for the Chargers to win as I thought they may be a slight dog to the Ravens, however the Steelers came through and opened up as rather larger favourites at -5 and have been hovering around -250 on the ML.

Unfortunately, -250 seems rather high for me to lay, as to at least cover my losses on the futures bets should the Ravens lose, I’d be sacrificing quite a large portion of my potential Ravens winnings.

Despite a strong public backing for the Ravens, I’ve found 55, 56, 62 and 63% public consensus on them at varying sites, the line has moved up in Pittsburgh’s favour. It made it to -6 and now has come down to -5.5 at some shops.

Anytime the public backs an underdog yet the line goes the other way you should always precede with caution.

The Ravens are bringing back memories of the Super Bowl team of past, yet will arrive in Pittsburgh pretty banged up. Eleven starters were limited or sat out of practice on Thursday. LB Terrell Suggs was reported to be having trouble lifting his arm over his head with his shoulder injury.

In the Steelers, Baltimore will almost be reliving last week’s Divisional Final facing an opponent very similar in style. The Ravens have gotten by on their stellar defense but have hardly been invincible.

The Dolphins stalled the entire first half yet when they started to throw in the second half had much more success until a drive killing botched handoff. The Titans, who are hardly known for their passing, saw Kerry Collins manage 281 yards through the air vs the Ravens.

Had it not been for timely turnovers in the red zone and a stalled play clock, we could have a rematch from Week 16 with Pittsburgh visiting Tennessee.

The Ravens claim to have wanted to play the Steelers over the Chargers and possibly for good reason. They beat the Titans last week, and those Titans handled Pittsburgh in Week 16 31-14.

In the two previous meetings with Pittsburgh this year, the Ravens lost by only three and four points. In Week 15 they actually lead most of the game until a late-game controversial TD by Pittsburgh gave the Steelers the victory.

The Steelers were the only team who took advantage of the week off last week however the game may not have been as big a blowout as it felt.

Yes, the Chargers got a late TD to make it closer; however Steel Town saw many fortuitous bounces go their way. The Chargers were without LT, yet stilled struck for an early TD 2 minutes in.

However shortly thereafter they gave up a PR TD. One River’s pass was also knocked up into the air for a Steeler INT, Pittsburgh recovered a live ball after they punted and it bounced off an unsuspecting Eric Weddle and they were awarded a 1st and goal after a pass interference call in the end zone.

While I don’t think the Steelers win was as impressive as some, if the Ravens struggled vs the Titan’s 27th ranked passing attack, I worry about them vs Pittsburgh’s tied for 16th passing attack.

Given the two teams past meetings and Raven’s ability to cause a turnover at will, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a close game or Raven victory. However I cannot forget how awful Baltimore looked last week.

They will be limping in with several injuries and facing a team who held the Chargers to 17 seconds of possession in the third quarter last week. That is an amazing stat!

My heart wants the Ravens for my future bet, but taking that out of the equation I’ll have to take a look at Pittsburgh -5.5.

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Tied 16

NFL Divisional Saturday Games

Ryan Metivier — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 00:52:24 -0500

OK so for anyone who stumbles across this now... I know it's old and today's games are over.. I wrote it up during the week and finished it right as the Baltimore game started. I emailed it out to a few places and forgot to post it here.. feel free to disregard it now, I just wanted to post it up here since I took the time to write it.

And to anyone who may think it's weak of me to post picks post game... keep in mind if you do read this, I'm not ashamed to hide the fact I was leaning Panthers at -10 for some reason, thankfully I personally kept my bets just to the Ravens game.

Baltimore @ Tennessee

Cashed with Baltimore last week over Miami and I also put a little money down on the Ravens with some futures bets to win the AFC and Super Bowl, at 7-1 and 14-1, respectively. That being said I think this could be one of the closest and toughest games to call this week as both teams play a very similar style, however I anticipated this matchup coming and I’m not going to go back off on my Ravens bet now. Certainly not as big a play for me as last week but a Ravens upset would not surprise.

Whether it’s poor play, league-wide mediocrity or parity, many teams have fallen into the discussion of only being good on merit of a weak schedule this year. The Titans have been a great story this year but in my opinion they may also fall into this category.

Last week I mentioned the Ravens have played teams with a .543 winning percentage this year. A look down the Titans schedule and they have beaten up on a quite a few dregs this year and played teams with a .444 winning percentage. In fact when they played teams with winning records they won vs. Minnesota, Chicago, Pittsburgh and split the series with the Colts (obviously their loss to Indy was in a meaningless game.)

They also lost SU to the Jets and beat these same Ravens 13-10 on Baltimore in Week Five. In that game the Ravens had more first downs 22-14, net yards 285-210, time of possession 34:28 – 25:32 and the Titans needed a late 80-yard drive to come back for the victory. which would lead me to think they should be able to hang in with these Titans again. With Titans Kevin Mawae out that should also be a huge advantage for the Ravens.

After the Titans pretty much layed down in week 17, it's been three weeks since they have played a meaningful game and could be rusty.

Play: Baltimore at +135 from bowmans.com for 1 UNIT

Arizona @ Carolina

Probably take a pass on this one as I by no means trust the Cards on the road and travelling to Carolina where the Panthers are 8-0. Given their past matchup in Week Eight where Arizona narrowly lost 27-23 and outplayed Carolina in many statistical categories, it would suggest we could see another close game.

I liked Atlanta last week and got burned as Arizona looks to have finally decided to change their game plan and have begun to use Edgerrin James. Given all this Carolina looks to be the play however they are not a team I’m confident laying at least 10 points with, especially when the Cards second-ranked passing attack could easily slide in a back door cover even if they are down big.

The uncertainty of Anquan Boldin’s status with a strained hamstring would also concern me in taking the Cards. The Cards are 0-4 on the east this year and 2-20 in their last 22 to the east. If I had to pick the game I’d lean Panthers but would prefer to sit back and just enjoy it.

Could Baltimore Ravens Be the Top Value Play To Win It All?

Ryan Metivier — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 18:42:17 -0500

It's that time of year...the NFL playoffs. While the sheer number of games and betting opportunities have become more limited, a whole new door opens up to the NFL better and that is futures bets on who will win it all!

While you can usually find these kinds of bets posted throughout the entire season, it's often hard to tie up your cash for four or five months. Plus, while you can get huge odds for the Miami Dolphins to win the Super Bowl on Sept. 1, let's be honest...Did anyone really think they would even make the playoffs this year?

So now that the 12 tickets to the dance have been sold, you can now sit back and have a clearer picture of the teams in play. In playoff scenarios like this, there is value to be had on almost every team unless there is a runaway favourite.

Let's take a look at the current odds available for teams to WIN AFC, WIN NFC, and WIN SUPER BOWL. These odds may slightly vary from book to book, but overall they'll be pretty similar.

To WIN AFC

Titans +225

Steelers +250

Colts +400

Chargers +700

Ravens +750

Dolphins +1200

To WIN NFC

Giants +110

Panthers +260

Eagles +650

Falcons +900

Vikings +1200

Cardinals +1600

To Win Super Bowl

Giants +275

Titans +550

Steelers +600

Panthers +600

Colts +900

Chargers +1200

Eagles +1400

Ravens +1400

Falcons +2500

Dolphins +2800

Vikings +2800

Cardinals +4000

As you can see there is + money to be had for every selection in these bets. Whether you have a strong opinion on one or a couple teams or just want to bet your favourite team to win it all, NOW IS THE TIME. For relatively low risk, any on of these teams could offer a large payout. (With the exception of a couple of top choices, though they still have value.)

Sure you could wait until the final four or actual Super Bowl game, but in my opinion, now is the time. You won't be seeing much + money around when there are only two teams remaining.

Plus what's great about getting down on one of these teams now, is that since the odds are still relatively high, if your team makes it to the final, you could possibly "hedge" your bet and bet the opposing team to balance out your risk.

Example: You take Atlanta at 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. Let's say they make it to the big game and are playing vs Pittsburgh. Now at this point the Steelers won't be +600 anymore, most likely they may be favoured.

Even $10 on your Atlanta bet would pay off $250. So almost any bet you make on Pittsburgh would cover your losses should Pittsburgh indeed win the Super Bowl. Now, obviously you will lose the Pittsburgh bet you just made if your first choice Falcons come through, but isn't winning $200 better than losing $10?

And the reduced stress you'll feel knowing you are either winning big, winning small or breaking even, but in no way losing is a great feeling.

Now, obviously this strategy won't always work, and in this example I used a big underdog at 25-1 in the example. A more reasonable choice clearly wouldn't pay as well, but you get the idea.

So where is the value in this slate of teams for this year's playoffs?

Well, currently I'm having a little love-fest with the Baltimore Ravens. I think they should steam roll past the Fins this week on their way to Tennessee. They only lost 13-10 to the Titans earlier this year, so I think they stand a good chance there.

After that, I'm confident they can hold their own against anyone else in the AFC final. At +750 to win AFC or +1400 to win the Super Bowl, I see tremendous value with the Ravens, who, I think have flown slightly under the radar this year. Here is a chart showing where the Ravens rank in many key statistical categories.

Team	surface	Rush yards	Rush yrds allw	Pass yards	Pass yrds allw	Turnovers	Sacks for	Sacks agst	Pts for	Pts agst
Ravens	turf	4	3	28	2	+13	14	22	11	3

For more of my Ravens thoughts check out my other article "Shreding the Spread One NFL Game at a Time: Wildcard Edition"

On the NFC side, while there are several attractive options I really can't see many of them going deep into the playoffs. Teams like Atlanta, Minnesota, Arizona don't have the experience and talent to match up with some of the stronger teams in the conference. I would have to lean towards possibly New York, Carolina, or maybe even Philly.

To win the whole show, I'd obviously include all those teams as options, plus the Titans, Steelers and Indy. My Super Bowl prediction would be Baltimore vs either New York or Carolina, so those would be my top choices.

Where do you think the value lies and do you agree this kind of future betting can be profitable? Let me know your thoughts.

Shreding the Spread One NFL Game at a Time: Wild-Card Weekend Edition

Ryan Metivier — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:53:43 -0500

The first games of wild-card weekend are almost here, and I’m sitting here trying to narrow down the games and find something I like to bet on. This is no ordinary week, as I only have four games to look at instead of the usual 16.

Normally, I try to narrow it down to a handful of games I like and maybe bet a couple of them or throw three together into a parlay. With only four games, I’m trying to resist the temptation to bet the board and SO FAR, I’ve only put down some dough on one of these games this weekend.

What makes this week even more unordinary is the fact that when I started checking the lines early this week I saw four road favourites and wild-card teams staring back at me.

Odds-makers clearly had a tough time putting up the numbers this week, as every game opened at -3 or lower and it wouldn’t have been surprising in my opinion to see the opposite team slightly favoured in some of these matchups.

The public on the other hand has had no problem making their selections. Not surprisingly all four road favs have seen intense public action so far. While these teams all made it to the annual playoff dance by virtue of the wild card, the public hasn’t been scared off, possibly with visions of past wild-cards teams Pittsburgh and the Giants winning the Super Bowl still fresh in their minds.

Here is the public consensus for each game from a few sites I check out:

Atlanta = 61-78%

Indy = 69-88%

Baltimore = 66-84%

Philly = 73-90%

AFC No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ No. 3 Miami Dolphins (11-5)

The Ravens are a team I’m going to be watching closely throughout these playoffs. In my opinion they’ve flown slightly under the radar and are really just as good as almost any team in the league.

I heard Dallas fans I know telling me Dallas was a lock to make the playoffs in Week 16 as they only had to face the Ravens and Eagles still. At the time I warned that while I wasn’t sure if the Ravens would win SU in Dallas, I knew they would be no pushovers as their offense is actually ranked in the top half of the league to go with a stellar defense.

Turns out they did win SU and if they had a call go their way against Pittsburgh, the week prior, they may have been sitting with a first round bye this week. The Ravens defense speaks for itself. Fourth vs the run, third vs the pass, third in sacks, and they allow the third fewest points per game.

The Dolphins will have a tough time scoring points this week as they only rank 21st in offensive points per game. Where Miami may find some success would be to unleash Joey Porter and put some quick pressure on Ravens QB Joe Flacco.

Miami is seventh in the league in sacks while Baltimore ranks only 22nd in protecting their QB. Trying to get outside the Ravens' O-Line would probably be best as Miami’s lighter D-line and LB’s may have a tough time taking the Ravens beefy O-line head on.

Let’s look at how both these teams got here as well.

While both teams share 11-5 records the Ravens by far had the tougher road to this playoff matchup. Ravens opponents had a 112-94-2 record (.543 winning %), while the Dolphins faced teams with a 91-117 record (.437 winning %.).

While it could be argued Baltimore lost to many teams with winning records this year, they kept things extremely close twice with the Steelers and as well as with the Titans, two teams they may meet again in these playoffs.

Looking down the stats from many of Miami’s games, while they may have won nine of their past 10 games, most of which were far from pretty. In many of those contests, they were outplayed in key categories such as first downs, total net yards, and time of possession, as well as failing to cover in several of those games.

Below is a chart with some key statistical comparisons between the two teams. The chart shows the surface each team plays on at home and each number is that team's league ranking for that category at the end of the regular season.

Team	Surface	Rush yards	Rush yrds allw	Pass yards	Pass yrds allw	Turnovers	Sacks for	Sacks agst	Pts for	Pts agst
Ravens	Turf	4	3	28	2	+13	14	22	11	3
Dolphins	grass	11	10	10	25	+17	7	11	21	9

In Week SEven, Baltimore handled the Fins quite nicely to the tune of a 27-13 victory. Statistically the game was played fairly evenly but this game was essentially a spring board game with sent both teams on impressive runs throughout the second portion of the season.

Another matchup to watch could be in the trenches when the Dolphins have the ball. Fins C Samson Satele 6-3 300 pounds, is quick and athletic and should be their C for years to come.

However, he sometimes has trouble taking on big tackles and in the Ravens Haloti Ngata 6'4" 340 pounds he will certainly see that.

One final thought is that listening to Dolphin’s quotes this week most of them seem to sound like the Fins are just happy about their turnaround, beating the Jets and making the playoffs. They’ll need a much more focused attitude should they hope to upset the Ravens.

This game immediately seemed to jump out to me when the lines first came out this week. When I first saw it, it sat at Ravens -3. Unfortunately I waited a couple days and saw the line move up to -3.5.

This line looked like it would keep moving up throughout the week as I saw more and more -3s turning into -3.5s. While I certainly would’ve preferred the -3, I still think the Ravens are the play here and I laid some money earlier in the week with Baltimore -3.5 @ 2.5 units.

Right now that is my only strong opinion for the weekend, however I will leave you with a few thoughts and rankings for the remaining games.

NFC No. 5 Atlanta Falcons (11-5) @ No. 4 Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

In this game we get two teams who are the complete opposite. The Falcons will pound it on the ground most of the game and then sprinkle a few passes in with offensive rookie of the year Matt Ryan.

The Cardinals would just as soon disregard the run completely and pass all day long to a star studded cast of receivers. Atlanta certainly had the tougher road to the playoffs playing in the NFC South where the Saints had the worst record at 8-8. Arizona has been coasting for weeks now after they easily locked up the putrid NFC West.

Six of Arizona’s nine wins came vs NFC West opponents and another vs Buffalo. It can be argued that 'Zona’s only good wins this year came against Dallas and Miami.

The Falcons travelling a couple time zones over to the desert could be of concern where Arizona was 6-2 this year. Cardinals WRs Fitzgerald, Boldin, Urban and TE Pope all are at least six-feet tall and over 200 pounds.

They are a tough group to handle in general and could be even tougher for a much smaller Falcons secondary whose only starter of comparable size is Lawyer Milloy who is questionable as of now with a back injury.

Also on the injury front for Atlanta is DE Jamaal Anderson who is looking doubtful with an ankle injury.

The difference in style in this game is that while Atlanta is a power running team but they can pass (14th in the league) if need be. If the Cardinals' Edgerrin James doesn’t perform well like he did in Week 17, or if Whisenhunt decides to abandon the run completely, 'Zona will quickly become very one-dimensional. Arizona boasts a larger O-line compared to many Falcon defenders but if they decide not to run at all the advantage could be wasted.

The bottom line is this: If the Cardinals come out guns blazing and have success through the air and build a quick lead, they will have a good chance to win this game. However, I believe the more battle tested (season wise) Falcons can keep this game close with a relentless run game.

The Cards' Travis LaBoy is also questionable with an ankle injury this week which will only help Atlanta’s cause. Like I said earlier, the Cards have flopped HARD when faced with any serious competition and a convincing Falcon win would not surprise me at all.

It says here the Falcons at -2.5 is the pick for this game.

Team	Surface	Rush yards	Rush yrds allw	Pass yards	Pass yrds allw	Turnovers	Sacks for	Sacks agst	Pts for	Pts agst
Falcons	Turf/dome	2	25	14	21	-3	17	6	10	11
Cardinals	Grass/RD	32	16	2	22	0	20	7	Tied 3	28

*retractable dome

AFC No. 5 Indianapolis Colts (12-4) @ No. 4 San Diego Chargers (8-8)

These two teams have become a serious rivalry of late. San Diego eliminated Indy from the playoffs last year, but Indy got some revenge this year in Week 12 with a 23-20 win in San Diego.

After that loss, the Chargers lost another to Atlanta and looked left for dead. However 4 straight wins crowned them as AFC west champs. They may have the worst record in these playoffs but they are playing like the team everyone expected them to be at the beginning of the year getting hot at just the right time.

However if you think about it, the Chargers were almost not in this position as they should’ve lost to KC in Week 15.

The Colts have been hot most of the season. After a slow start they have reeled off nine straight wins culminating with a 23-0 win over the Titans and Manning being named league MVP.

San Diego has some size advantage to throw around in the trenches and WR Vincent Jackson towers over most of the Colt’s secondary. If Bob Sanders is kept out, that matchup will be even more appealing.

For the Chargers all eyes will be on whether Tomlinson and Gates are able to suit up for this one as they are battling some injuries of their own and haven't practiced all week.

I think this is pretty tough to call but while the public is all over Indy, some sharp money seems to have come in on the Chargers as I’m seeing a line switch to -1 San Diego at some books. I think at home and getting hot maybe at just the right time will make me lean towards the Chargers in this one at -1 currently.

Team	Surface	Rush yards	Rush yrds allw	Pass yards	Pass yrds allw	Turnovers	Sacks for	Sacks agst	Pts for	Pts agst
Colts	Turf/RD	31	24	5	6	+9	15	3	13	7
Chargers	grass	20	11	7	31	+4	28	10	2	15

NFC No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) @ No. 3 Minnesota Vikings 10-6

The Eagles were another team who looked to have no shot at the playoffs this year. However, with Bears and Bucs losses and a demolition of the Cowboys the Eagles seem to have fate on their side.

While they seemed dead for some time, the Eagles have been consistently playing decent as they rank highly in many key statistical categories. (see chart). Philly’s large offensive line will try to open up lanes for Westbrook and give McNabb time to pass vs the Vike’s 18th rank pass D.

Philly’s smaller defenders will look to continue to bring pressure on most likely Tarvaris Jackson as Minnesota is 28th in the league at protecting their QB. On defense, the Vikes could also be short handed if Edwards and Pat Williams can’t play on their defensive line as they are battling injuries.

For Minnesota, they will most likely throw Peterson and Taylor at Philly all day and hope to break off some large runs from behind their large and effective O-line. Vike’s coach Childress also used to work for the Eagles so he may have some inside insight to their play calls.

In a pleasant surprise, Tarvaris Jackson has come in and held his own in relief of Frerotte so the Vikes know they can trust him to pass if needed. What’s concerning with Philly is that sure they shut down a lifeless Cowboys team last week; however, the week prior, they needed that game just as badly vs Washington and laid a huge egg in only scoring three points and losing 10-3.

Minnesota also finished the regular season on a high in a 20-19 win over the Giants. However in a game that meant nothing New York and potentially everything for Minnesota, the Vikes were barely able to pull off the victory at home playing against a Giant’s team playing most of their backups.

If I had to pick one here, I’d say the door was left ever so slightly open for the Eagles and they took advantage of it last week to make the playoffs. I think that luck could continue this week and the more experienced QB (McNabb) will prevail.

Put a gun to my head and Philly -3 is my play.

Team	Surface	Rush yards	Rush yrds allw	Pass yards	Pass yrds allw	Turnovers	Sacks for	Sacks agst	Pts for	Pts agst
Eagles	Grass	22	4	6	3	+3	3	5	6	4
Vikes	Turf/dome	5	1	25	18	-6	4	28	12	13

In Week 16, the top-five public consensus choices not only didn’t cover but they also lost SU. In Week 17 the opposite occurred as many of the top consensus choices cashed. This week I’m a little scared to be leaning to siding with many public choices which is part of the reason I’m going to back off a couple of these games.

Best of luck to all this wild-card weekend!

College Football Bowl Betting: Cotton, Liberty, and Sugar Bowls

Ryan Metivier — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 18:25:53 -0500

I started off the new year on a positive note, as the Hawkeyes cashed for me on New Year's day. While I wrote up the Bearcats as well, I decided against actually putting some coin down on them, which turned out to be a good idea as they went down in flames 20-7.

For Jan. 2 Bowl games, I'm not sure if I'll be making any wagers just yet, but here are some thoughts.

Cotton Bowl: Mississippi (24) vs. Texas Tech (8)

Ole Miss pts for/agst = 30.8/17.8

Texas Tech pts for/agst = 44.6/26.2

First, what scares me the most about this game is that while Texas Tech seems like the superior team, which also reflects in their ranking, the money seems to be coming in on the Rebels. This line opened -7 in favour of the Red Raiders but has crept down to -4, and I've even seen a -3.5 pop up.

Depending where you look, anywhere from 76 to 85 percent of the public are piling up on Texas Tech. Texas Tech may be the better team, but I never want to be on the same side as that much of the public, and someone is betting Ole Miss to make that number drop. Thing is the time to bet the Rebels may have passed, as the value of getting them at a touchdown underdog is no more.

Other notes...

* Rebels have beaten Florida and LSU on the road and played Bama tough.

* Rebels coach Nutt is 15-8 ATS vs. top 10 ranked teams with six SU wins as well.

*Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS on grass, while Texas Tech is 0-4 ATS on grass this year.

* No Rebels have been to a bowl game before, while the Red Raiders have 17 seniors playing in their last game. Depending which side you're on, there's some motivational factors.

* We all know Texas Tech's story: Their 65-21 loss to Oklahoma kept them out of a possible championship game, but they are still trying to finish with the school's best end of year ranking and could be motivated to prove they should've been in a better bowl game.

Liberty Bowl: East Carolina vs. Kentucky

No huge opinion on this game, but laying -3 with East Carolina could be something I'm looking at.

The Pirates come into the game on a solid finish to the year and upset Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Tulsa along the way to qualify for the Liberty Bowl. Kentucky, on the other hand, stumbled in losing their last three games and are facing some injury concerns. RB Derrick Locke, top WR Dicky Lyons Jr., and QB Randall Cobb will all be out for this one.

This means QB Mike Hartline will regain his starting job, which he lost after eight games. The fact that Wildcats will be starting a QB who was benched and booed during this season gives me no reason to back Kentucky in this matchup. If I make a bet, I'm leaning to East Carolina, but I may have missed the value as I'll have to lay a field goal now.

East Carolina pts for/agst = 23.8/20.8

Kentucky pts for/agst = 22.4/21.7

Sugar Bowl: Utah (7) vs. Alabama (4)

Utah pts for/agst = 37.4/17.2

Bama pts for/agst = 31.2/13.0

The Utes come into this one on a 13-game win streak and winners of 20 of their last 21 games overall. This season they have already beaten six bowl teams to get to this bowl on Jan. 2 (Michigan, Oregon St., TCU, BYU, Colorado St., and Air Force).

They could have some extra motivation as Bama coach Nick Saban has stated the Crimson Tide at 12-1 "are the only undefeated team in regular season who plays in a real BCS conference." Utah finished at 12-0 in the Mountain West.

For the Crimson Tide, their beefy lines could prove to be too much for the Utes. However, star LT Andre Smith will be out for violating team rules, and that could prove to be a huge loss.

Line Movement = While roughly 67 percent of bets are coming in on the Crimson Tide, the line has dropped from its opening -11 for Bama down to -9.5.

Overall I generally try to find value in dogs, and for the sake of this article my pick would be Utah.

Right now my biggest lean for Jan. 2 would be towards East Carolina, but overall these three matchups seem tough. If anyone has any strong leans, please let me know.

Best of luck.

College Football Bowl Betting: Outback and Orange Bowl Picks

Ryan Metivier — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:35:34 -0500

In looking over the five Bowl games being offered up to start off 2009, I've isolated two games I'm looking to have action on and they come from the Outback Bowl and Orange Bowl.

Outback Bowl

The Iowa Hawkeyes come into this game on a high note as they won five of their last six games and all of their final three. Overall, while they have 4 losses on the year, combined they were for only 12 points. Iowa also pulled an upset over 6th ranked Penn State this year.

Pts for/ Pts Agst = 30.2 13.2

On the other hand the South Carolina Gamecocks stumble into this matchup on a two-game losing streak, getting embarrassed 56-6 and 31-14 in those contests. They rank 109th out of 119 teams in rushing defense, and may have some QB confusion as Garcia looks to be going behind center again as he replaces Smelley.

Pts for/ Pts Agst = 21.7 20.2

Iowa sits currently at -3.5 at many books and that's my play for this game.

Orange Bowl

It looks like Virginia Tech linebacker Brett Warren, their second-leading tackler, has a torn ACL and is doubtful for this game. Tech's starting LG will also be out for academic reasons.

The Bearcats should be motivated for this one, as it's their first major bowl series game ever. The program is improving and they should be looking for a big performance in this one.

At wagerline.com approximately 55 percent of bets on coming in on the Hokies, yet the line has risen to -2.5 for Cinn at most shops.

Hokies pts for/agst = 22.2 17.5

Bearcats pts for/agst = 27.3 20.2

Cincinnati -2.5 is my play here.

I plan to make it to the "window" with at least one of these plays for tomorrow, right now I'm leaning towards Iowa.

Let's hear some thoughts and best of luck to all.