Bleacher Report - Articles by Michael T. Penn

Punctuated Equilibrium: The NBA's Greatest One-Year Turnarounds

Michael T. Penn — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 15:11:35 -0400

In evolutionary biology, Punctuated equilibrium is a theory which describes speciation (the branching of one species into another) as a sporadic process, characterised by extended periods of stasis, followed by brief, localized and quickly occurring jumps, known as cladogenesis. In basketball, teams often improve through gradual, incremental processes. You trade for a supporting player here, you draft a future star there, and over time you have yourselves a contender.

Examples of this approach include the most recent Pistons, the Threepeat and current Laker Champions, and the Bulls Dynasty. In evolutionary terms, they improve through what is called anagenesis. Sometimes however, teams evolve in a manner which more closely resembles cladogenesis. It's sudden and dramatic. Often, the team which emerges from the change is a completely different animal, orders of magnitude more evolved, more dominant, and more successful than it once was. So lets take a look at Punctuated equilibrium, NBA style: The greatest one-season turnarounds ever...

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Michael Jordan's Other Legacy

Michael T. Penn — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 19:00:46 -0400

The Issue

A few days ago Randy Garcia wrote an intelligent article on the impact of Michael Jordan to the way in which the league has been marketed. This caused me to stop and think about some of the other ways in which Jordan's decade of domination may have affected the league since his second departure in 1998. The principle effect, I suspect, relates to the perceived value of scoring.

Scoring points is obviously important in the game of basketball. Many would in fact argue that it is the whole point of the game. Even if your viewpoint is that the aim is to outscore your opponent, meaning defense is the prerequisite for success, you must still score yourself to win. So we can all agree scoring is clearly paramount.

But on what level is it important? The team level or the individual level?

This seems to be a principle cause of disagreement amongst basketball fans.

On the one hand you have those who see scoring as an output of the latter, of iso’s and "shot creation" and individual brilliance.

People of this opinion will tend to be forgiving of below average and even sometimes very poor shooting efficiency. They maintain that it is better for the high volume scorer to take that impossible shot than any of his teammates, teammates who they see as there principally to support that scorer.

The diametrically opposing view is the former—those who see scoring as an output of effective team play.

Fans who ascribe to this perspective will still admit that scorers are valuable players, but only if they score with at least an average level of efficiency and contribute to other areas of the game simultaneously.

Fan's of this perspective when asked a question such as "who else on that team could make a shot like that with three defenders in his face?" would answer along the lines of "why would a player take that shot when two of his teammates are now open?" This is the basic duality in the two perspectives.

How does Michael Jordan relate to this argument?

So, on the one hand you have guys who value spectacular individual performers, players who will reach gaudy point totals and take extremely difficult shots on a regular basis.

On the other are guys who value efficiency and believe that since the game is predicated on possessions, only those players who are efficient enough to contribute without wasting them on missed shots and turnovers have the greatest value. They see "shot creation" as a euphemism for "needlessly throwing up a prayer."

These two views seemed mutually exclusive. Until Jordan came along and united them.

What made Jordan such a great player was that he gave both these sets of fans what they wanted. He scored prodigiously, yet he did it very efficiently. He’d hit a spectacular game winner, but he’d play lockdown defense to gain the extra possession that led to the shot.

He basically did both the obvious and the discrete, and did them both extremely well. He shone because of the former, but he won because of the latter. The league’s top scorer and it’s best player, ying and yang.

The Premise

It is my contention that the decade in which we were all spoilt by this multi-spectral brilliance has left an indelible impact on the game that remains to this day.

Over the years Jordan changed more than just the way the game is marketed. He changed the very way that talent is evaluated in basketball. He took high scoring outbursts and made them synonymous with winning, and that association remains to this day.

To illustrate this point I looked at three measures: the top scorer each season, the leader in win shares, and how those related to MVP voting. I took this back 30 years, to the 1979-80 season, and the data presents as follows:

The Conclusion

Before Michael Jordan's emergence the league's leading scorer averaged a placing of 6th in the M.V.P voting. The leader in Win Shares averaged a place of 2nd in the voting.

During Michael Jordan’s career (before the stint with the Wizards) the league's leading scorer (usually Jordan) averaged a placement of 1.75 in the M.V.P voting. The leader in Win Shares (again usually Jordan) had the same average.

Thus during his decade of dominance Michael Jordan achieved a synthesis between individual scoring output and contributions to team wins which is almost completely unparalleled in at least the last 30 years.

After Jordan hung up his sneakers in 1998 however, the league's leading scorer has been placed an average of 3.8 on the M.V.P voting.

Contrast this with the Win Share average placement, which has remained almost exactly the same as it was before MJ at 1.9, and you can see that whilst the measures which make a player valuable to his team have basically remained unchanged, the perception of what is valuable has been skewed towards scoring.

The impact of being the league's leading scorer in relation to how valuable a player is perceived is now almost double what it was before MJ's emergence.

It is therefore my position, that Jordan's simultaneous dominance in both the overt area of point production, and subtler areas of efficiency (which though less obvious are in fact more important to the win column), has lead to a cognitive coalescence of these two principles in the minds of the media and the casual observer.

For better or for worse the top scorers are now more than ever seen as the cream of the N.B.A crop, and a large part of that change is due to the G.O.A.T himself.

Miscellaneous

Some other assorted observations of this data;

In the last 30 years, the leader in win shares is named the M.V.P 11 times. The leading scorer (except when he also led the league in win shares) was M.V.P 2 times. On average, win shares leaders finish twice as high in the M.V.P vote than PPG leaders, and the PPG numbers are skewed heavily by Jordan. This indicates that win shares are indeed a much more effective evaluator of a players value than points per game.

T-Mac should probably have been given consideration for the M.V.P award in 2003. He should at least finished higher than fourth place.

Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant have both had multiple scoring titles in the post Jordan era, and have won an M.V.P award despite not having yet led the league in win shares.

Dirk Nowitzki had a strong case to beat out Steve Nash for at least one of his two M.V.P awards. Dirk is the only player other than Jordan to lead the league in win shares more than twice in a row.

The only players other than Jordan to be the leading scorer, and leader in win shares in the same year are McGrady in 2003, Shaq in 2000, David Robinson in 1994 and Adrian Dantley in 84. Shaq also won the M.V.P award in 2000, the only player except MJ to lead the league in all three.

Jordan lead the league in win shares, and points per game for 7 seasons in a row, yet only received 3 M.V.P awards during that period. Magic Johnson also won 3 M.V.P awards during the same stretch.

Tim Duncan or Shaquille O'Neal: Who Is the Best Big of the Era?

Michael T. Penn — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 07:04:56 -0400

Michael Jordan retired from dominance in 1998. Since that time two players—Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan—have been major pieces of eight of the last 10 NBA Championship teams.

In fact any team who wanted to win a title in the last decade needed to start one of four dominant big men (the other two being Kevin Garnett and Ben Wallace). Big men dominated the league for 40 years before Jordan, and they have dominated it for the 10 years since.

In 2009, however, that story could be changing. Duncan has just turned 33, and the Spurs were ousted in the first round of these playoffs. Shaquille is now 37 years old, and the Suns failed to make the playoffs at all.

Though undoubtedly the greatest undrafted player of all-time, Ben Wallace has long been a shadow of his former self. Kevin Garnett (the most versatile seven footer ever) has been out injured for months. Unless Dwight Howard's Orlando Magic can defeat Kobe Bryant's Lakers in the finals, 10 years of big man dominance will be over.

Given the fact that this 'big is best' era may be coming to a close, I thought it would be interesting to look at the two most dominant players of the last 10 years and ask, 'which one is better?' Garnett and Wallace obviously are deserving of a mention, but their singular title each pales to the extended dominance of Shaq and Duncan.

So without further ado, lets take a look....

Tim Duncan - 4 Titles, 3 Time Finals M.V.P, 2 Time League M.V.P

Tim Duncan was drafted by the Spurs in the 1997 draft with the first pick. Known as one of the most fundamentally sound players of all time, 'The Big Fundamental' was a boon for the 1997/98 Spurs, as their poor record the previous year was due to the absence of another dominant, but aging center, David Robinson.

The two combined to become the 'Twin Towers', one of the best front lines in the history of the league. The Spurs went from 20 wins the previous year, to 56 in Duncan's first season, and the following year—after the retirement of Michael Jordan—they won the franchises' first title in five games over the Knicks.

The next three years did not fare as well for the Spurs. Robinson was getting older all the time, and Shaquille O'Neal emerged as the most dominant force in the game. Whilst Shaq's Lakers won their three-peat, Duncan and the Spurs could do nothing but await their next chance, which came in 2003.

In Robinson's final season with the Spurs, he and Duncan won the franchises second NBA championship. Duncan absolutely dominated the series against the Nets, in the final game he had a triple double—21 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists.

With eight blocks he was only two away from an amazing finals quadruple double. David Robinson was resurrected, contributing 17 boards in what was to be his final game. He retired after the play-offs, leaving Duncan as the teams undisputed leader.

Under Duncan's captaincy the Spurs would go on to capture two of the next four championships, leaving Duncan for one on each odd year, 2003, 2005 and 2007.

Though he struggled with injuries over that time, the emergence of Manu Ginobili and later Tony Parker—along with veteran assistance from Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry and others—allowed Duncan's Spurs to be successful. He won his last ring in 2007, although finals M.V.P honours went to Tony Parker, the only time Duncan failed to win that award.

Duncan's career numbers to date are as follows:

21.4 ppg on 50.7 percent shooting, 11.7 rpg, 3.2 apg and 2.4 bpg.

Shaquille O'Neal - 4 Titles, 3 Time Finals M.V.P, 1 Time League M.V.P

Drafted first by the Orlando Magic in 1992, few players have had as dominant a career as Shaq. The Big Diesel lead Orlando to 20 more wins in his rookie season, posting up a line of 23.4 points, and 13.9 rebounds per game on his way to Rookie of the year honours.

In his second year he upped his scoring to 29.3 points per game, and recorded his first (ridiculous) triple double against the Nets, a line of 24 points, 28 rebounds, and 15 blocks!

Although Shaq's early years were characterised by statistical and individual dominance, it was not until the age of 27, the 1999/00 season that Shaquille reached his gigantic potential. Averaging 29.7 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game, Shaq lead the Lakers to 67 wins and won his only league MVP award.

Leading the league in scoring, coming second in rebounding and third in blocks per game, Shaq was a force of nature and the Lakers won their first title since the days of Magic Johnson twelve years prior.

Following that season, with the emergence of Kobe Bryant as a dependable second option, the Lakers would go on win two more titles in a row, for a rare three-peat.

Shaq would be finals MVP each year, and his PER streak of 30.6, 30.2 and 29.7 would rank as the one of the most dominant stretches in history, and the cap to 5 straight years of leading the league in this statistic.

In 2001/02 the league finally eliminated the illegal defense rules, a change which was a de facto introduction of zone defenses. There are many who believe this change was implemented to limit the dominance of Shaq and the Lakers, by making it much easier to implement the hack-a-shaq, and double Kobe on the perimeter.

Whether or not this was the intention one can hardly argue with the outcome, as 2002 was to be the last ticker tape parade for Shaq's Lakers.

Following a disappointing defeat to Tim Duncan and the eventual champion Spurs in 2003, and a disastrous juggling of future hall of famers in 2004, Shaq's time with the Lakers came to a close.

That he and Kobe had struggled to get along was famously well known, and when the torrent of titles dissipated, the Lakers front office decided it was time to focus on their young star, and so traded Shaq to the Miami Heat.

Shaq's first season in Miami was considered a success by most measures. He played well, averaging 22.9 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, although at 32 years old, he clearly was not as dominating a force as in his prime and before the rule changes. The Heat improved their standing by 17 wins, and made the conference finals.

The next year saw a 33 year old Shaq's numbers drop to 20 and 9, as he struggled with injuries and played just 30 mpg. The Heat though won 50+ games for the second straight year with Shaq and made the NBA Finals.

Shaq averaged 18.4 points and 9.8 rebounds per game during the playoffs, but this was paled by Dwayne Wades 28.4 points per game. Though the Heat went on to win the title, it was now Shaq's turn to take a supporting role, similar to Duncan, as his perimeter star took the finals MVP honours.

After the 06 season Shaq's struggle with injuries were to deepen, although during the 2008/09 season with the Suns he managed a renaissance to post respectable numbers of 17.8 points, and 8.4 rebounds in 30 minutes per game on 60 percent shooting.

Although at 37 his time dominating the league has long since passed, Shaq has remained a useful contributor. His career numbers are as follows:

24.7 ppg on 58 percent shooting, 11.2 rpg, 2.6 apg and 2.4 bpg.

So Who's the Best?

For me this is a simple question with a four letter answer. S-H-A-Q!

He may have had the steeper decline so far with his age, but Shaq was among the most dominant players this league has ever seen. There is a very strong argument that the league changed the rules of the game itself to slow him down, something never even contemplated for Duncan.

Tim Duncan has been dominant over a longer period, but he never reached the heights that Shaq did during his three year run on top. I think the recaps speak for themselves, but I'm going to give the last word to the Big Aristotle himself:

"The biggest thing that will define my legacy is how I’ve done it, and what I’ve done, and who I am. I’m a weird big guy. Doing rapping, doing movies. Do a lot of stuff. But always do things the right way. Went to the police academy to become a police officer.

"Get his master’s in criminal justice, stayed out of trouble. Played for three different teams. Changed three different franchises around. This is a guy who they would have secret meetings about to change the rules. So, that’s going to be my legacy: the most dominant player ever"

Lakers-Magic: Kobe Bryant Joins Elite Company With His Game One Production

Michael T. Penn — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 04:08:20 -0400

Now if anyone has read my comments over my time here at Bleacher Report, they will understand that I am not one to gush in over appreciation of Kobe Bryant. In fact I have been referred to at least once as a Kobe hater (I am not). Given that context this will make what I am about to say all the more poignant for those who do worship number 24. Kobe's production in last night's game against the Magic was historic. The NBA Finals are the biggest stage for a basketball player in the world, those who can produce on this stage cultivate a different kind of status, a legend which endures beyond anything done in the regular season. Kobe's numbers last night of 40 points 8 rebounds and 8 assists put him in the company of the greatest players the game has ever seen. The Big Diesel, The Logo, and the GOAT himself are the only other players to ever produce such numbers on the greatest of basketball stages. Let's take a look at Kobe's new club...

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