Bleacher Report - Articles by Todd McGee

Saints Pull Away From Colts in Weekly Power Poll

Todd McGee — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:38:52 -0500

Convincing victories over Tampa Bay and New England the last two weeks have enabled New Orleans to open a little breathing room over Indianapolis in my weekly NFL Power Poll.

This Power Poll combines three statistics. The first is a team's adjusted win-loss record, which is computed by adding the number of wins of each opponent a team has beaten and the number of losses of each opponent that a team has lost to. To achieve the adjusted winning percentage, I divide the number of wins by the numbers of wins plus losses.

The second statistic compares a team's scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure whether a team is posting a better offensive performance than you would expect from an average team.

The third stat compares a team's defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. Again, this is an attempt to determine whether the defense is faring better or worse than an average team against the schedule.

To achieve the final calculation, I multiply the adjusted winning percentage by three, then subtract a team's defensive effectiveness from its offensive efficiency, and then divide that by 10. I then add that number to the team's adjusted winning percentage number for the final ranking.

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 12 of the NFL season:

Rank	NFL Team	Total	Week 10
1	New Orleans Saints	4.420	1
2	Indianapolis Colts	4.050	2
3	Minnesota Vikings	3.598	4
4	New England Patriots	3.416	3
5	Baltimore Ravens	2.909	7
6	San Diego Chargers	2.775	12
7	Dallas Cowboys	2.525	10
8	Cincinnati Bengals	2.399	5
9	Philadelphia Eagles	2.336	13
10	Green Bay Packers	2.255	17
11	Denver Broncos	2.223	11
12	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.108	8
13	Atlanta Falcons	2.101	9
14	Arizona Cardinals	2.066	6
15	New York Giants	2.025	15
16	Houston Texans	1.799	14
17	New York Jets	1.706	18
18	San Francisco 49ers	1.700	19
19	Miami Dolphins	1.570	16
20	Tennessee Titans	1.177	23
21	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.830	22
22	Carolina Panthers	0.722	20
23	Chicago Bears	0.695	21
24	Seattle Seahawks	0.508	24
25	Buffalo Bills	0.224	25
26	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.030	27
27	Washington Redskins	-0.109	26
28	Oakland Raiders	-0.127	29
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.515	28
30	Detroit Lions	-0.811	30
31	Cleveland Browns	-0.960	31
32	St. Louis Rams	-1.125	32

If I were a betting man (3-1 against the spread in Week 10)...

I would take Houston (pick) over Jacksonville, San Francisco (pick) over Seattle, Baltimore (minus three) over Green Bay, New England (minus five) over Miami, and Dallas (minus two) over the New York Giants.

Despite Loss to Colts, Patriots Stay Third in NFL Power Poll

Todd McGee — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:12:35 -0500

Despite losing to Indianapolis on Sunday night, the Patriots held on to the No. 3 spot in my weekly Power Poll. The Saints and Colts remain No. 1 and 2, but the Colts are quickly narrowing the gap.

For instance, the seven teams Cincinnati has beaten have combined to win 30 games, while the two teams they have lost to have combined to lose seven games, giving them an adjusted win-loss record of 30-7, which equates to a winning percentage of .811.

The second statistic compares a team's scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure a team's offensive efficiency.

For example, New England is averaging 28.8 points a game, while the nine teams they have played are allowing only 21.6 points per game, giving New England an offensive efficiency rating of 7.2.

The third stat compares a team's defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. This measures a team's defensive effectiveness.

For example, Indianapolis is allowing only 15.8 points per game while their opponents are averaging 21.8 points a game, which gives Indy a defensive effectiveness ranking of -6.0 (negative numbers are good for the defensive ranking).

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 10 of the NFL season:

Rank	NFL Team	Total
1	New Orleans Saints	4.200
2	Indianapolis Colts	4.110
3	New England Patriots	3.372
4	Minnesota Vikings	3.220
5	Cincinnati Bengals	3.213
6	Arizona Cardinals	2.712
7	Baltimore Ravens	2.686
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.685
9	Atlanta Falcons	2.669
10	Dallas Cowboys	2.435
11	Denver Broncos	2.299
12	San Diego Chargers	2.241
13	Philadelphia Eagles	2.108
14	Houston Texans	2.079
15	New York Giants	2.059
16	Miami Dolphins	1.945
17	Green Bay Packers	1.840
18	New York Jets	1.722
19	San Francisco 49ers	1.559
20	Carolina Panthers	1.157
21	Chicago Bears	0.907
22	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.890
23	Tennessee Titans	0.661
24	Seattle Seahawks	0.607
25	Buffalo Bills	-0.045
26	Washington Redskins	-0.180
27	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.409
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.544
29	Oakland Raiders	-0.738
30	Detroit Lions	-0.799
31	Cleveland Browns	-0.890
32	St. Louis Rams	-1.319

If I were a betting man...

I would go with the No. 16 Dolphins (plus three-and-a-half according to the Las Vegas Sunset Stations) over the No. 20 Panthers, the No. 9 Falcons (plus six-and-a-half) over the No. 15 Giants, the No. 30 Lions (minus three-and-a-half) over the No. 31 Browns, and the No. 19 49ers (plus six-and-a-half) over the No. 17 Packers.

New Orleans Saints Stay Atop My Power Poll: Indianapolis Colts Closing Fast

Todd McGee — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:13:32 -0500

Despite losing to Indianapolis on Sunday night, the New England Patriots held on to the No. 3 spot in my weekly Power Poll. The Saints and Colts remain No. 1 and 2, but the Colts are quickly narrowing the gap.

For instance, the seven teams Cincinnati has beaten have combined to win 30 games, while the two teams they have lost to have combined to lose 7 games, giving them an adjusted win-loss record of 30-7, which equates to a winning percentage of .811.

The second statistic compares a team's scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure a team's offensive efficiency.

For example, New England is averaging 28.8 points a game, while the nine teams the Patriots have played are allowing only 21.6 points per game, giving New England an offensive efficiency rating of 7.2.

The third stat compares a team's defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. This measures a team's defensive effectiveness.

For example, Indianapolis is allowing only 15.8 points per game while its opponents are averaging 21.8 points a game, which gives Indy a defensive effectiveness ranking of -6.0 (negative numbers are good for the defensive ranking).

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 10 of the NFL season:

Rank	NFL Team	Total
1	New Orleans Saints	4.200
2	Indianapolis Colts	4.110
3	New England Patriots	3.372
4	Minnesota Vikings	3.220
5	Cincinnati Bengals	3.213
6	Arizona Cardinals	2.712
7	Baltimore Ravens	2.686
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.685
9	Atlanta Falcons	2.669
10	Dallas Cowboys	2.435
11	Denver Broncos	2.299
12	San Diego Chargers	2.241
13	Philadelphia Eagles	2.108
14	Houston Texans	2.079
15	New York Giants	2.059
16	Miami Dolphins	1.945
17	Green Bay Packers	1.840
18	New York Jets	1.722
19	San Francisco 49ers	1.559
20	Carolina Panthers	1.157
21	Chicago Bears	0.907
22	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.890
23	Tennessee Titans	0.661
24	Seattle Seahawks	0.607
25	Buffalo Bills	-0.045
26	Washington Redskins	-0.180
27	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.409
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.544
29	Oakland Raiders	-0.738
30	Detroit Lions	-0.799
31	Cleveland Browns	-0.890
32	St. Louis Rams	-1.319

If I were a betting man...

I would go with No. 16 Dolphins (plus three and a half according to the Las Vegas Sunset Stations) over the No. 20 Panthers, the No. 9 Falcons (plus six and a half) over the No. 15 Giants, the No. 30 Lions (minus three and a half) over the No. 31 Browns, and the No. 19 49ers (plus six and a half) over the No.17 Packers.

Saints, Colts, and Patriots Top Week 11 Power Poll

Todd McGee — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:06:48 -0500

Despite losing to Indianapolis on Sunday night, the Patriots held on to the No. 3 spot in my weekly Power Poll. The Saints and Colts remain No. 1 and 2, but the Colts are quickly narrowing the gap.

The second statistic compares a team's scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure a team's offensive efficiency.

For example, New England is averaging 28.8 points a game, while the nine teams they have played are allowing only 21.6 points per game, giving New England an offensive efficiency rating of 7.2.

The third stat compares a team's defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. This measures a team's defensive effectiveness.

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 10 of the NFL season:

Rank	NFL Team	Total
1	New Orleans Saints	4.200
2	Indianapolis Colts	4.110
3	New England Patriots	3.372
4	Minnesota Vikings	3.220
5	Cincinnati Bengals	3.213
6	Arizona Cardinals	2.712
7	Baltimore Ravens	2.686
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.685
9	Atlanta Falcons	2.669
10	Dallas Cowboys	2.435
11	Denver Broncos	2.299
12	San Diego Chargers	2.241
13	Philadelphia Eagles	2.108
14	Houston Texans	2.079
15	New York Giants	2.059
16	Miami Dolphins	1.945
17	Green Bay Packers	1.840
18	New York Jets	1.722
19	San Francisco 49ers	1.559
20	Carolina Panthers	1.157
21	Chicago Bears	0.907
22	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.890
23	Tennessee Titans	0.661
24	Seattle Seahawks	0.607
25	Buffalo Bills	-0.045
26	Washington Redskins	-0.180
27	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.409
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.544
29	Oakland Raiders	-0.738
30	Detroit Lions	-0.799
31	Cleveland Browns	-0.890
32	St. Louis Rams	-1.319

If I were a betting man...

I would go with No. 16 Dolphins (plus three-and-a-half according to the Las Vegas Sunset Stations) over the No. 20 Panthers, the No. 9 Falcons (plus six-and-a-half) over the No. 15 Giants, the No. 30 Lions (minus three-and-a-half) over the No. 31 Browns, and the No. 19 49ers (plus six-and-a-half) over the No.17 Packers.

Yet Another NFL Power Poll, But This One Really Counts

Todd McGee — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:36:37 -0500

It seems like there are more Power Polls around than there are NFL teams. Every site has one—ESPN, CBS Sportsline, Sports Illustrated. The list goes on and on.

The polls usually feature the subjective rankings of one or more members of the site's staff and tend to fluctuate wildly because they are almost always greatly influenced by the flavor of the week (the Jets were as high as No. 3 in some of the early polls, but now tread near the middle of the pack).

I have devised a formula that attempts to look at the team's relative strengths and weaknesses based on two sets of statistics—their adjusted win-loss percentage and their average offensive and defensive output in relation to their opponents.

A team's adjusted win-loss percentage attempts to identify the caliber of opponents that teams are beating or losing to. You figure out the adjusted win-loss by giving a team credit for the wins of each opponent it defeated, and likewise, they are credited with the losses of each team they have lost to.

As an example, the Denver Broncos have an adjusted win-loss record of 26-6. The six teams they have beaten (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, Dallas, New England and San Diego) have combined to win 26 games. The two teams they lost to—Baltimore and Pittsburgh—have a combined six losses.

New Orleans and Indianapolis each have an adjusted winning percentage of 1.000, but it is interesting to note that the Saints' adjusted record is 29-0 compared to the Colts' 26-0.

The next stat determines how a team is performing against how an average team would perform against its opponents in terms of points scored and points allowed. New Orleans is averaging an impressive 37.9 points a game through its first eight games, but what makes the mark even more outstanding is that their eight opponents are allowing an average of only 22.5 points per game. New Orleans is scoring 15.4 points more per game than an average team would be when faced with the same schedule.

The team with the second-highest differential is Minnesota at 7.4—less than half of New Orleans' differential! New England is tied for third at 5.9 with surprising Baltimore, and perhaps an even bigger surprise—Miami—checks in at No. 5 with a 5.7 differential.

Defensively, the team that has posted the best differential is Indianapolis, which is holding its opponents to 6.9 points per game fewer than their cumulative average. New England checks in at No. 2 on this list at 6.5, followed by Denver (6.2), the New York Jets (5.9), and the Cincinnati Bengals (5.3).

To determine a team's final ranking, I use a formula that takes into account all three factors. After running the numbers, here are this week's Power Rankings.

Team	Score
1. New Orleans Saints	2.550
2. Indianapolis Colts	2.000
3. New England Patriots	1.980
4. Atlanta Falcons	1.539
5. Cincinnati Bengals	1.533
T-6. Baltimore Ravens	1.480
T-6. Minnesota Vikings	1.480
8. Dallas Cowboys	1.420
9. Denver Broncos	1.303
10. Arizona Cardinals	1.197
11. Pittsburgh Steelers	1.188
12. Philadelphia Eagles	1.170
13. Miami Dolphins	1.139
14. New York Jets	1.000
15. New York Giants	0.861
16. Houston Texans	0.793
17. San Diego Chargers	0.689
18. Green Bay Packers	0.459
19. San Francisco 49ers	0.451
20. Chicago Bears	0.308
21. Seattle Seahawks	0.150
22. Carolina Panthers	0.011
23. Buffalo Bills	-0.232
24. Tennessee Titans	-0.426
25. Jacksonville Jaguars	-0.499
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.811
27. Kansas City Chiefs	-0.859
28. Washington Redskins	-0.995
29. Oakland Raiders	-1.049
30. Detroit Lions	-1.060
31. Cleveland Browns	-1.124
32. St. Louis Rams	-1.712

Five NFL Trades That Should Happen This Offseason

Todd McGee — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 02:02:13 -0500

This year, perhaps more than ever, several marquee names in the NFL are in a position to be moved in the offseason - for a variety of reasons. Terrell Owens has worn out his welcome in Dallas; Nnamdi Asomugha simply deserves a better fate than languishing in Oakland for another year; Matt Cassel has earned a shot at a starting job somewhere; Reggie Bush may need a fresh start. Here are five trades I'd like to see this offseason.

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How To Build a Championship Fantasy Football Team

Todd McGee — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 14:47:00 -0500

Joseph Addai was a team killer for many fantasy football owners, but I overcame the debacle that was Joseph Addai's 2008 regular season and won my first league championship in nine years. Managers can overcome a bad draft, but you can't do it by sitting on your duffs. You have to pay attention to the waiver wire and be willing to make trades. Getting a little lucky every now and then doesn't hurt, either. Read on to see how I put together a championship team that set a scoring record in a league that has been in existence for 13 years.

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If Brett Favre Had Any Class, He Would...

Todd McGee — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 14:41:25 -0500

There is no doubt that Brett Favre is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, but there is also no doubt that he simply does not deserve his slot in the Pro Bowl this year. Favre has always been a class act, and it would be a fitting end to his career—if indeed, this is his last season—for him to refuse his selection and allow either Philip Rivers or Chad Pennington, both of whom led their teams to the playoffs and both of whom are imminently more deserving, to take his place.

Favre's play down the stretch—nine INTs and two TDs in the final five games—is one of the principal reasons the Jets did not make the playoffs this season (that, and the fact that Eric Mangini apparently forgot about his other Pro Bowl offensive player, tailback Thomas Jones). The Jets won only once in their final five outings, and that was a gift provided to them by the Buffalo Bills.

Favre has already cemented his legacy as a Hall of Fame quarterback, but his reputation took a hit with his nasty split from Green Bay last year, when most fans sided with the team. Allowing another, more deserving quarterback to take his place in Hawaii this year would help restore his legacy as one of the classiest players to ever play the game. It would also allow the NFL to save some face with their disgraceful AFC quarterback selections.

No one can doubt that Peyton Manning deserves to be in the game, but Favre and Denver's Jay Cutler have no legitimate claim to their slots in the Pro Bowl, particularly when you consider the accomplishments of Rivers and Pennington.

Rivers led the Chargers to the AFC West title after a disastrous start to the season for the Chargers. Four times this year, Rivers led the Chargers to game-tying or go-ahead scores late in the fourth quarter, only to see his defense blow it. He wound up ranked No. 1 in pass efficiency in the NFL and is the only QB to have a rating of higher than 100.0. His final rating of 105.5 is the second-highest rating in the past four seasons, trailing only Tom Brady's 117.2 from last year and he was the only QB to have a TD:INT ratio of better than 3:1.

Pennington led the Dolphins to one of the biggest single-season turnarounds in NFL history and ranked second in pass efficiency in the NFL this year. Cutler wound up ranking 16th in efficiency rating, and Favre an abysmal No. 21.

East Coast/West Coast Bias a Bunch of Hogwash

Todd McGee — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 00:24:20 -0500

A lot of "insightful" commentators on the pregame shows or on talk radio programs around the nation (think Mike Greenberg of ESPN) have been making a big stink about how West Coast teams have a disadvantage when they travel to play a 1 PM ET game against an Eastern Time Zone team.

This has given rise to much talk that the East Coast teams get an unfair advantage, because the West Coast team is having to adjust to a time zone change, and they wind up playing a game at 10 AM their local time.

This year, both West divisions are playing both East divisions, so there are a lot of instances where West Coast teams are traveling to play a team on the East Coast, and vice versa. Talk of a bias is total hogwash. They are overlooking a couple of important facts:

First and foremost, the four West Coast teams (San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle and Oakland) are all pretty much a joke. Seattle and San Diego each had high expectations, but they've both been ravaged by injuries, although the Chargers have made a nice comeback in the season's second half.

Oakland is as laughingstock right now, while the 49ers have actually shown some signs of life under Mike Singletary.

Secondly, the East Coast is loaded with great teams. Every team in the NFC East will finish with at least a .500 record, and three teams in the AFC East will win at least nine games, and Buffalo could finish .500 if it beats New England on Sunday.

Other East Coast teams like Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Atlanta have also been stout—all five of those teams may make the playoffs—so there are no easy games against East Coast teams (with the possible exception of Jacksonville).

Thirdly, the four West Coast teams have combined to win only 10 road games so far this year, and three of those have come against themselves. San Diego won at Oakland, and Seattle and San Francisco each traded road wins against each other.

In recent weeks, San Francisco won at Buffalo and San Diego won at Tampa Bay, so West Coast teams have enjoyed some success in the Eastern Time Zone.

In other words, outside of playing against each other, the four West Coast teams are struggling to win anywhere—on the road or at home. It has nothing to do with where the games are being played; it has everything to do with the quality of competition they are facing—and the lack of quality they are offering up in return.

Tennessee Titans Have Something To Shout About: No. 1 Spot in My Power Poll

Todd McGee — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 00:03:04 -0500

There are many Power Polls that attempt to rank the NFL teams from 1-32, but most of these do not use any kind of formula to rank the teams. That's why I devised my own Power Poll, which takes into account the quality of wins (or losses) to determine each team's Adjusted Winning Percentage (AWP).

The AWP is determined by adding the number of wins of each team a particular team has beaten, and then you add the number of losses for each team a particular team has lost to. This gives you a team's opponents win-loss record.

For example, the 12 teams that the New York Giants have beaten have a combined 89 wins.

The three teams they lost to have 23.5 losses. That gives the Giants an opponents win-loss record of 89-23.5. As a final calculation, I then add a team's number of wins to its opponents number of wins and divide that figure by 200 to get a win adjustment ranking.

I add the Opponents win-loss percentage to the adjustment factor to come up with the AWP: Adjusted Winning Percentage.

Key: OW - Opponents Wins; OL - Opponents losses; AW - Average No. of wins of defeated opponents; AL - Average number of losses of opponents lost to; OWP - OW/(OW OL); Winadj. - OW/200; AWP - OWP Win adj.

Teepack's takes: Showdown Sunday did not disappoint, as the Giants and Titans scored major victories to give each team home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Even though the Titans have moved back atop the Power Poll, I think that the eventual AFC champion is going to have to contend with the Indianapolis Colts at some point in the playoffs, and that can't be a pleasant thought - even for Tennessee. The Colts have battled injuries to key offensive players—Peyton Manning, Jeff Saturday, Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison—throughout the season, but are starting to put it together at just the right time.

The Colts have quietly put together a championship-caliber defense, too—even with Bob Sanders being in and out of the lineup. Indianapolis ranks eighth in points allowed and is 11th in yards allowed.

Don't be surprised if the Super Bowl isn't a rematch of the 1958 NFL championship game between the Colts and Giants, a contest that is considered by many the greatest game ever played and is credited with creating great fan interest in the NFL.

I couldn't get the code to work, so I'll just post the link to where I keep the entire poll on my Web site. Check it out and let me know what you think.

Teepack's Power Poll