Bleacher Report - Articles by Charles Henry

Not Quite There Yet: Tom Brady's 2009 Preseason

Charles Henry — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 02:15:42 -0400

Tom Brady led the Patriots offense against the Redskins this past Friday night. His numbers for the night were solid: 12 of 19, 150 yards, two TDs, zero INTs, 122.7 rating. Numerous people are clammoring that it is 2007 all over again, etc.

On the surface, the numbers speak well for Brady this preseason. He is completing nearly 62 percent of his passes, has thrown four TDs and only one INT. Many fans and so-called football experts alike are talking about how his play is so impressive.

They point to his QB rating (105.95) and express absolute confidence that he is "back," ready to take his team to the promised land flowing with Lombardi trophies and confetti.

However, after watching the game, I have to conclude that the future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback for the Patriots is not quite back to 100 percent yet.

This is not some alarmist commentary. It also should not be taken as a condemnation of Tom Brady’s play, nor is this under the Chicken Little heading (“The sky is falling!”).

I’d take Brady over any other quarterback in the NFL. I admire the play of both Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and others, but Tom Brady is our quarterback; I wouldn’t want it any other way.

This is simply my own personal evaluation of a player I’ve come to admire, and how he has performed during the preseason, particularly in the game against the Redskins.

Why have I chosen that game on which to focus? The main reason is simply that it will likely be the last significant amount of work he’ll do before the season begins. It also represents the most recent body of work, demonstrating for us just how far along he is in kicking off the rust and recovering from injury.

As best I can determine with my admittedly unprofessional eye, the knee appears to be physically fine. He moves around on it without any appearance of limping or any sign of pain. By all reports, his knee is actually stronger than ever.

The only physical effect of the injury is that his knee brace does seem to hinder mobility slightly, making him a little stiffer. However, the physical effects appear to be limited at most.

Mentally, however, I think Tom Brady is only about 80-85 percent recovered. It seems apparent to me that he is subconsciously guarding that knee, and hesitant to lean into it, onto it.

This was demonstrated several times during the Redskins game, especially in his throw with 2:40 left in the first quarter. When facing pressure in this game, Brady rushed his throws.

There are two plays I wanted to focus on in particular. Late in the first quarter, with Brady and the Patriots facing a first-and-10 and operating out of the shotgun, the Redskins sent a linebacker blitz.

The offensive line picked it up, but Matt Light got moved back close to Brady by Brian Orakpo. It appeared to startle Brady, and his subsequent throw was late to Galloway, knocked away by the defender.

It isn’t that he had to get rid of the ball quick, it’s how he did it. He threw in a hurry, and neither set his feet nor stepped into the throw, although he had time to do both. Frankly, he looked panicked.

After the play, he appeared unsure, as if he didn’t know how to react to what had just happened. It’s no mystery why the next two passes were quick outs to Galloway and Moss out of the shotgun.

In fact, out of the 21 pass plays in the game (including the one called back due to a Patriots’ penalty), 14 were out of the shotgun. Of the other seven, five were play action.

It’s possible—even likely—that the Patriots staff doesn’t want to give too many looks to opponents. It also has to be considered, though, that Bill Belichick and his staff are being very protective of Brady, by giving him these so-called ‘safer’ looks downfield.

The other play that stuck out to my mind was the final pass play of the night for Brady, the now infamous hit by Albert Haynesworth.

I don’t have any issue with the play itself. In fact, I think the NFL is tending to baby the quarterbacks of the league. It isn’t the hit that draws my attention; it’s the way Brady behaved in the pocket before that hit.

He had what is often referred to as ‘happy feet,’ meaning he was shuffling about all during the play. Washington brought pressure on the third-and-six play, which is to be expected on an obvious passing down.

Brady did not respond with his usual cool. He was on his toes, elevated, and never set his feet. The pressure got to him mentally before Haynesworth ever dropped his hefty physique on our signal-caller.

The throw itself made me cringe. He was off his back foot, never really set, and it looked as though he just threw it up for grabs. A high floating pass off thrown deep down the right sideline doesn’t seem like the kind of play that we’d see from Brady in the recent past. It was begging to be intercepted, and the Patriots were fortunate that it fell incomplete.

In watching Brady’s pass plays, I could see where he appeared to be hurrying, rushing, not setting his feet properly.

Don’t get me wrong, there are often times when a quarterback has to get the ball out quickly, when there simply isn’t time to set his feet properly. The second touchdown pass to Moss is an excellent example of that.

There are also times when everything about the play looks perfect (feet set, steps into throw, etc.) and the pass is off-target.

Having watched the game over again, reviewing every pass play, Brady appears to lose focus at times, or gets rattled by pressure. He is still adjusting, I think, to the speed of the actual game, and getting acclimated to it once again after a year off.

In this apparent doom and gloom report, there is reason to take heart, good Patriots fans. It looks as though Brady is simply adjusting, getting back to who and what he was—a professional quarterback. On many of the plays, he looked confident, solid, the Brady of old.

At this point in his return and recovery, I think it is simply that Brady needs to get into a rhythm and keep that rhythm going. When that rhythm is disrupted, it is more difficult for him to regain it.

On one play, Brady was flushed from the pocket, and started running. (Running is of course a relative term when Mr. Brady—or most any NFL quarterback—is concerned.) As the linebacker came up, he threw a quick and sharp pass out to Maroney in the flat, who took it 13 yards.

He didn’t throw it immediately, he drew the linebacker first to give Maroney more space to run. That was vintage Brady, timing a play beautifully. It was also an excellent example of how a quarterback need not always set his feet on his throws.

He isn’t back to 100 percent, and he likely won’t be until a few games into the season. It’s possible we won’t see the Tom Brady we want to see until mid-season, but be confident in who we have under center. I’ll take Brady at 90 percent healthy and 80 percent mentally ready over any other quarterback in the league.

The wonderful thing is that while his preseason play is just shy of a 106 rating, his best football is yet to come.

Group Effort Part II: The Best Running Back Corps in the NFC

Charles Henry — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 10:45:34 -0400

I did this for the AFC, and got a number of comments insisting I consider the Carolina Panthers. An easy mistake to make, but it got me thinking.

Thoughts lead to actions, and in this case that action is writing, typing, and then submitting my 10th article to Bleacher Report. (Isn’t this exciting?)

So without further ado, I present my top five NFC Running Back Corps, plus honorable mentions.

Honorable Mentions

b. Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Leonard Weaver, and Lorenzo Booker

Any group must be considered if they’re headed by Westbrook, one of the most versatile backs the NFL has ever seen. However, despite my admiration for his skills, he is past his prime, and hasn’t played 16 games in any season in his career.

LeSean McCoy, while a rookie, has shown promise in camp, and is expected to be the No. 2 man behind Westbrook. Leonard Weaver is a complete fullback who can pass block, run block, run, and catch. Booker has looked great also. They need to prove themselves, however.

a. Chicago Bears

Matt Forte, Kevin Jones, Garrett Wolfe, and Adrian Peterson

Forte is an incredible back, who has done wonderfully, despite having poor quarterback play behind him. Kevin Jones is good, not great, but solid insurance for Forte. Wolfe and Peterson haven’t yet blown anyone away, but they are versatile.

The Top Five

5. New Orleans Saints

Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Heath Evans, Mike Bell

Thomas is fully expected to take over the lead back role with the Saints, and be the "thunder" to Reggie Bush’s "lightning." Bush is without question the best "satellite" (operates best in space) in the NFL, but he’ll need Thomas to set him up.

Evans, signed away from the Patriots, gives a lot of options for Brees and the offense. Bell is looking to step up to take the No. 3 role, backing up both Bush and Thomas.

4. New York Giants

Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Brown, and Danny Ware

Jacobs, the NFL’s leading linebacker running back, is well known. Larger than a number of linebackers and nearly everyone in the opposing secondary, he can power over nearly everyone one-on-one.

Bradshaw worked well backing up Ward as the No. 3 back, and has looked better in camp. Brown is expected to shine, while Ware is fighting to stay on the roster, but the strength is the top of the list, which is solid.

3. Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, and Ian Johnson

Simply the presence of Peterson puts the Vikings in the top five. When you add in Taylor, it’s impossible to keep them out of the top three. Johnson is looking to take that No. 3 spot, and anything he can add will only be a bonus.

2. Atlanta Falcons

Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood, and Ovie Mughelli

Turner’s presence is much the same as Peterson’s—if he’s here, the Falcons have to be top five. Norwood continues to be under-appreciated, despite averaging nearly six yards per carry and 9.4 yards per reception over his career.

Mughelli doesn’t carry the ball much, but that’s not his job. His job is to clear the way for Turner and Norwood, and considering their combined ypc average (4.65), I’d say he does alright.

1. Carolina Panthers

DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Goodson

I tried—I really did—to put these guys as No. 3 or No. 4, just to show I’m not so powerfully influenced. The fact is that they’re just downright solid. Williams and Stewart averaged over five ypc and nearly two rushing touchdowns per game.

Goodson will likely fill the No. 3 spot, and will start off mostly on returns. Don’t expect him to remain there long.

We shouldn’t be too surprised if Goodson steps up, because the Panthers have a habit of bringing along running backs. For the past five years or so, they’ve used a platoon system, to great effectiveness. Stephen Davis is hurt? No problem, we’ll plug in second-year man Foster.

Davis is gone, we’ll bring this young guy Williams along. Williams steps up, so now Foster is out and rookie Stewart is the No. 2 guy. It does make me wonder how long it’ll be before Williams is gone, Stewart is No. 1 and Goodson steps into the backup role.

The NFC was in some ways easier to evaluate than the AFC, but in other ways much harder. What makes it harder is that the top three teams all have two solid guys at the top.

Peterson is No. 1, Turner No. 2, and Williams is No.3 out of the top three. With the No. 2 role, Stewart is No.1, Norwood No. 2, and Taylor is No. 3, a complete inversion of order.

The next two on the list aren’t easier. It’s not as though Bradshaw or Bush are slouches. The NFC presents its own challenges, especially for an admitted AFC man.

Again, I welcome, encourage, even request commentary and criticism.

Group Effort: The Best Running Back Corps in the AFC

Charles Henry — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 12:06:38 -0400

It seems like almost all of the press lately has been going to the quarterbacks and the diva stars formerly known as receivers.

The media coverage tended to focus on the Brett Favres (will he? Or rather, when will he?), the Jay Cutlers (aka, temper tantrum boy), the Terrell Owens’ (will he ever find a house in Buffalo?), and the Brandon Marshalls (Mr. “I wanna go play with Jay”).

I thought it was time to take a glance at the high profile workhorses of the offense: the backs. Regardless of whether you use the term fullback, running back, or halfback, if you don’t have a good one, you’re in trouble; and one may not be enough.

The recent trend in the NFL is to have a group of backs, and platoon them. The thought process is simple–if you use different backs in different situations and use multiple backs, you can keep the entire group rested, and potentially get more production.

As with receivers, linebackers, and others, there are good groups and there are bad groups. What follows is a listing I put together of the five best running back corps in the AFC.

Honorable Mentions:
c) Denver Broncos.
Why they’re not in the top five: the Broncos have plenty of depth, but it is a group of second-stringers. Moreno might push them over the top, but not in time for this list.

b) Miami Dolphins.
Why they’re not in the top five: Two good backs top their list, but Williams is past his prime. Was the Wildcat the reason they did well last year? I don’t think so.

a) Jacksonville Jaguars.
Why they’re not in the top five: the Jaguars’ top back, Jones-Drew, might be considered by many to be the top back in the AFC, but there isn’t much behind him.

The Top Five AFC Running Back Corps

5) Baltimore Ravens. Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain, Ray Rice.
Every team knows the Ravens intend to run. Despite this, they still managed to gain over four yards per carry.

The key to this group is health. McGahee has missed a number of games lately, and his presence is essential. Ray Rice did satisfactorily in McGahee’s absence, and McClain is a solid powerback. If McGahee plays the entire season, this group could be devastating.

4) San Diego Chargers. LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Michael Bennett.
This group is led by Tomlinson, who was considered at one time the best back in the NFL. Injuries and age are taking their toll, and the last few seasons have made many question if it was the back or the offensive line.

Regardless, Tomlinson’s difficulties have allowed Darren Sproles to emerge. He is still considered little more than a third-down back by some, and will need to prove himself. Bennett is an okay third option, but his best years have long since passed.

3) New England Patriots. Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk.
The depth of this group is what gets them this high ranking. Three of them have been regular starters at one point or another in the NFL, and Kevin Faulk is one of the better third down backs in the NFL.

There is also talk of the Patriots keeping BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the roster. Green-Ellis, a second year player, gained a a lot of game experience last season, and if the Patriots keep him, they would be the only team in the NFL that has four backs with 70+ carries each last season.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers. Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore.
Willie Parker is a very good back, and that’s shown strongly in the past two seasons. Sometimes he does require that extra space, but he knows how to make it work.

Rashard Mendenhall demonstrated promise in the little action he had before being injured. I fully expect him to do well in 2009. Mewelde Moore had to step in for each of them, and did so to the tune of nearly 600 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He also added 40 receptions to the list.

1) Tennessee Titans. Chris Johnson, LenDale White, Chris Henry.
The strength of this group is the effectiveness of the top two backs. Johnson had an excellent rookie year, providing a spark.

LenDale White has taken hold of the power back role, and has fulfilled it admirably. The questions here regard the other backs: will Chris Henry step up for that No. 3 role, and how well will he fill it?

One team that didn’t make the honorable mention category but has potential to be in the top five, is the New York Jets. As a Patriots fan, I have to hate the Jets (it’s a requirement, I think a federal statute). However, if Shonn Greene comes on strong as a rookie, he could provide the bump to put them over the top.

Thomas Jones is solid, and Leon Washington is exciting. Rex Ryan has a run-first philosophy, so look for them to shove the ball down the opponents’ throats.

I had to think long and hard about accepting what my figures gave me and how they conflicted with my own personal feelings on the matter. It was hard to get the two to coexist. I used my own ranking system, then went to several sites for how they ranked rb’s, and combined the results.

It is, of course, according to my own formulae and opinion, so if your team doesn’t rank as highly as you expect, give me a reason to change my mind! Regardless, I’d love feedback!

Dennis Johnson: Why Isn't This Defensive Wizard in the NBA Hall of Fame?

Charles Henry — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 02:06:48 -0400

There are a number of players who have reached the pinnacle of NBA success but are surprisingly not in the Hall of Fame. One of the most glaring omissions, in my opinion, is former Boston Celtics guard, Dennis Johnson.

It has been a little over two years since his death while coaching the Austin Toros. He retired after the 1989-1990 season, his 14th season in the NBA.

Despite his career achievements, his numbers, and his reputation, he has not been granted entrance into the Hall of Fame. This is my short presentation of his HOF credentials.

D.J. is most frequently identified as a member of the Celtics, but he was drafted by the Seattle Sonics in 1976. He played for the Phoenix Suns from 1980-1983, and was traded to the Celtics following the 1982-1983 season.

Originally a shooting guard, he quickly became known for his aggressive play, especially on defense. In the 1978 Finals, he blocked seven shots in Game Three, still a Finals record for a visiting player.

In 1979, he did one better, winning the NBA championship and being named Finals MVP. He also earned his first of nine consecutive NBA All-Defense Teams (First and Second teams), and was selected to his first All-Star Game.

He redefined himself multiple times to match up with his teammates and his team's needs. He was a slashing shooting guard when he started with the Sonics and developed a physical defensive presence. When traded to the Suns, he was needed to score more, so he did just that.

When he was traded to the Boston, he molded himself into a clutch shooter with stifling defense and a keen eye for passing.

In his years with the Celtics, he was asked to take a calmer approach and to take a backseat to the "Big Three" of Larry Bird, Robert Parrish, and Kevin McHale. He adjusted his game each time with incredible ease.

Larry Bird, in his biography Drive, called D.J. the best teammate he ever had. Magic Johnson called him the toughest backcourt defender of all time.

Here are the stats that stick out: 15,535 points; 5,499 assists; 4,249 rebounds; 1,477 steals; 675 blocks.

He was voted to nine All-Defensive teams: Six First-Team selections and three Second-Team. He was a three-time NBA champion, five-time All-Star, and the 1979 Finals MVP.

There are perhaps a dozen players who’ve amassed such a broad spread of statistics.

What defined D.J. more than the statistics were his tenacious defense and his clutch shooting. Such things don’t typically show up on the stat sheet. Still, the people who played with or against Dennis Johnson spoke highly of the way he played.

Joe Dumars is in the Hall of Fame. I don’t begrudge him the honor; he was an excellent player and was known as a class act despite being part of the self-titled “Bad Boys.”

But if Dumars, known primarily for his defensive prowess, is in the Hall of Fame, why hasn't Dennis Johnson been voted in?

Dumars averaged two ppg more than Johnson, and was in one more All-Star Game (six to five). However, he averaged fewer rebounds, fewer assists, fewer blocks, and fewer steals.

D.J. also had more All-Defensive Team selections. He was a part of six Finals teams, three times coming away with the Championship. Dumars was a member of three Finals teams, winning twice.

In the playoffs, D.J. averaged more points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks than Dumars. In fact, DJ has more playoff offensive rebounds (262) than Dumars has playoff rebounds (257).

Granted, it must be noted that Dumars played in 112 playoff games compared to D.J.’s 180, but even still the per game averages cannot be dismissed.

It is my fervent hope that the selection committee will finally choose this year to grant Dennis Johnson the honor that so many former teammates and opponents feel he deserves.

July 4th Is Over, So Now What?

Charles Henry — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 13:41:59 -0400

So it’s now the beginning of July and we get to bide our time, waiting for the preseason camps to start.

It’s the NFL’s version of the dead zone, where there’s little to report and even less going on; the time of year where the most dedicated and devoted fans suffer from “football withdrawal." This is a painful condition of both a physical and emotional nature, which can take heavy doses of Patriots.com just to alleviate the depression.

Seriously, though, from the sorrow comes joy. In this case, that “joy” comes from fans on various sites such as this one, where misery finds a great deal of company.

During this down time, the world shifts, for just a little while. Redskins fans and Cowboys fans carry on discussions that can go five minutes without arguing. It is at this point in the season where Jets and Patriots fans chat without threats of violence or untoward commentary regarding one’s parentage, where Raiders fans shake hands with Bronco believers in a civil manner.

Okay, so maybe it’s not that good. This isn’t all peace and love after all; it’s FOOTBALL!

Still, we need to pass the time.

So for those Patriots fans out there, I’ll make my game by game preview of the season.

For the anti-Patriots out there, this is an opportunity to use up some of that negative energy by telling me how your team (or someone else’s team) will whip my Pats between the lines.

Don’t hold back!

Week 1: vs. Buffalo

The inclusion of Terrell Owens into the Bills offense will bolster their spirits. However, the bigger issues in this game are the return of Tom Brady and the absence of Marshawn Lynch. Expect the visiting team to fight hard, but I do not foresee this as being a close game.

Patriots win, 31-13. 1-0

Week 2: at NY Jets
This is a heated rivalry, despite—or perhaps because of—the familiar faces on opposite sides.

The absence of Calvin Pace will not have a huge impact, as the Jets staff are well aware of it. The offense of the Jets needs work, and will be a weakness at the start of the season. Their defense should be improved, though, and a great deal tougher.

However, the Patriots defense at this point (one game played) looks quicker, on the ball faster. It’ll be a hard-fought affair, not a blow-out.

Patriots win, 27-17. 2-0

Week 3: vs. Atlanta
Matt Ryan looked good last season. I do not expect a sophomore slump from this guy; he’s too determined, and the team is 100 percent behind him.

However, he'll be facing a faster, quicker and younger Belichick defense, which will make up for inexperience with speed.

Michael Turner is the big one in this game for the Falcons.

For the Patriots, Tom Brady will have a stellar game against a solid Atlanta defense. With Moss doubled for most of the day, it’ll be up to Galloway and Welker to get it done early, then for the Taylor-led backs to pound it home. This will be a good game.

Patriots win, 30-20. 3-0

Week 4: vs. Baltimore
Is there any team outside of the AFC East that we hate more? Okay, the Steelers might be it. (The Colts don’t count, they used to be in the AFC East.)

This Ravens defense is vicious, and these players get off on their opponents’ pain. That’s not an insult, that’s a compliment. This is football, after all.

However, their defense will take a hit this season, and the Patriots will be ready for them. I’m sure that they’ll have regular viewings of the 2007 matchup, to remind them how they were man-handled in the last game.

A heavy dose of Taylor and Morris will free things up for Maroney and possibly Faulk. The passing game will be less prominent, but there will be at least one big third down play.

Patriots win, 27-13. 4-0

Week 5: at Denver
The first of only two long distance road games, the Patriots visit with old friends Josh McDaniels, Jabar Gaffney, and Daniel Graham. It won’t be a pleasant visit for the home team.

I like Josh, and Bill likes Josh. But this is business, and Belichick isn’t known for his sentimentality.

Brandon Marshall’s involvement could help them, but not by too much.

Patriots win, 38-10. 5-0

Week 6: vs. Tennessee
Staunch defense meets an offense that is just now hitting its stride.

With Brady throwing like it is 2007, and Moss running out patterns rather than going deep, the Patriots will feature a solid short passing game with a lot of run fakes. Taylor will still manage to pull out at least 50 yards as this will become a running game late.

The Patriots run defense will have their hands full, but with the corners doing their jobs, it all works out.

Patriots win, 24-13. 6-0

Week 7: at Tampa Bay (London)
I despise the fact that Tampa loses a home game for this semi-exhibition deal. It’s my opinion that if you’re playing one game a year in London, simply alternate which conference is considered the home team. There’s got to be a way to keep from taking home games.

Anyway, the Bucs aren’t on the Patriots level, regardless of who is under center.

The Patriots win this early with the pass, then grind it out on the poorly maintained fields. (They’re designed for soccer, after all.)

Patriots win, 41-13. 7-0

Week 8: bye
A good deal of resting up is required now.

There are a few players dinged up, but the biggest players of note are Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway.

Taylor’s sprained ankle, suffered against the Titans, limited his touches in London. He’ll be at about 90 percent for the rest of the season, but with the platooning it won’t affect his play all that much.

Galloway’s strained hamstring has limited his work since the Baltimore game, causing him to be deactivated for the London trip. The extra weeks of rest are what the doctor ordered—literally and figuratively—and he’s ready for the second half of the season.

Week 9: vs. Miami
It is early November before New England meets the 2008 AFC East Champs, and the Patriots are running on all cylinders.

The Dolphins are playing strong, but simply cannot match up with the reloaded and rested Patriots offense.

Defensively, Patrick Chung starts his first game in place of James Sanders. He’s been seeing increasing time since his strong play against the Ravens. He responds to the promotion with a fumble recovery, four tackles, and a pass breakup.

The wildcat gets declawed, run only four times for -3 yards and an incompletion. The Dolphins defense is simply overwhelmed, twice put into a bad spot by an offensive turnover.

Patriots win, 34-10. 8-0

Week 10: at Indianapolis
Fans from both teams had this game circled on their schedules. The game doesn’t disappoint, as both sides make great plays on offense and defense.

The difference in this game is two-fold: the Patriots rush attack, and the loss of Matt Light to a knee sprain. Sebastian Vollmer steps in and does admirably, although he does give up a sack on a 3rd and 7 play inside the 35, pushing the Patiots out of fieldgoal range. However, while he is slower against Freeny, the Patriots run behind Vollmer and Mankins for chunks of yardage, finishing off the Colts with an out-and-up by Moss.

Patriots win, 24-17. 9-0

Week 11: vs. NY Jets
The Jets defense is operating at peak efficiency.

The Patriots are playing well on defense, but their offense is shaky with Vollmer making his first start. Sliding protection to the left solves the problem for now, and Welker makes 11 catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns.

Moss only catches three, but for 74 yards and a score.

Laurence Maroney has his best game of the season, rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown late, and only a great open field tackle by Rhodes stops Galloway from a 48 yard touchdown.

Thomas Jones and Leon Washington do their best, but Sanchez simply gets rattled too much as the Jets abandon the run. Three interceptions in the last four possessions ends it.

Patriots win, 44-9. 10-0

Week 12: at New Orleans
Fresh from their drubbing of the Jets, the Patriots run into Drew Brees at his best.

Neither defense is particularly effective as the quarterbacks are simply out-of-their-minds good.

Marques Colston gets out of bounds at the 4-yard line with 11 seconds left, and the Saints punch it in with Steven Jackson.

Left with only a handful of seconds, the desperation heave is caught as time expires, but Galloway is tackled at the 28-yard line, well short.

Saints win, 37-35. 10-1
(Come on now, did anyone really think I would predict a 16-0 season?)

Week 13: at Miami
The past is prologue as the Dolphins, losers of three of its past four, cannot get anything going on offense or defense.

The Patriots were put through a vicious week of practice following the Saints loss. The defense responds with five sacks, four interceptions, and two fumble recoveries.

Twice getting the ball inside the red zone, the offense makes good on the opportunities.

Patriots win, 41-12. 11-1

Week 14: vs. Carolina
Jake Delhomme (coincidentally related to one of my assistant coaches) does not respond well to pressure.

Despite this, the game remains close, thanks to the efforts of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who are spectacular.

Brady has an interception returned for a touchdown for the first time this season, as pressure from Julius Peppers causes an errant throw.

The defense rises to the occasion to end the game with a fourth down stand.

Patriots win, 28-20. 12-1

Week 15: at Buffalo
It’s December, and it’s Buffalo. It’s cold.

The Patriots in their usual atypical fashion start the game with 13 straight passes. Brady hits everybody—Welker first, then Moss, Galloway, Faulk, Baker, Lewis, Welker again, and finally Watson.

The game heats up when Julian Edelman takes a wide receiver reverse and throws a beautiful 39-yard touchdown to Galloway.

Patriots win, 27-10. 13-1

Week 16: vs. Jacksonville
The Jaguars’ tough season doesn’t get any better in Foxboro.

With Jones-Drew out a second consecutive week with a concussion, the weight falls on the shoulders of quarterback David Garrard. The defense, well aware of this, gets after him with abandon.

Patrick Chung has his second straight game with an interception, his fourth in the last four games.

It isn’t all bad for Garrard, as after his four interception game he gets a consolation call from Byron Leftwich.

Patriots win, 31-6. 14-1

Week 17: at Houston
With the AFC East title and homefield in the playoffs sewn up, some in the media think the Patriots might take it easy.

It looks that way early on, as Tom Brady is pulled midway through the second quarter. Belichick feels his statline of 142 yards and a touchdown is sufficient.

The Texans, fighting for their playoff lives, try too hard. Overplaying on defense gives Kevin O’Connell a great day, and the Titans (who make the playoffs despite the loss) lose Mario Williams to a minor ACL tear.

Julian Edelman makes four catches for 63 yards, and old friend David Thomas, resigned after a last week's season-ending injury to Alex Smith, has two catches for eight yards and two touchdowns.

Patriots win, 34-20. 15-1

I readily admit that I had a lot of fun playing with this, so if I’ve offended fans of any team out there, TOO BAD!

No, seriously, this was all in fun, done with tongue firmly in cheek. Believe me, I was and am in no way wishing ill on Mario Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew, or any other player in the NFL.

By the way, for those who are wondering? Yes, the Patriots do indeed win the Super Bowl in my scenario.

They beat the Steelers for the AFC Championship (27-16) and win in convincing fashion over the Saints (or the Giants, wouldn't that be poetic?), 44-21, to win the Lombardi again.

Thoughts?

Back to the Future: Patriots 2007 Prelude for 2009

Charles Henry — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 01:48:06 -0400

There’s no questioning the impact of the Patriots’ 2007 season on the rest of the NFL.

From Week One, New England caught the attention of the rest of the league and made pending opponents take notice andspend extra time in the weight room, film room, etc.

It was to no avail, of course, as the Patriots steamrolled through the first half of the season and maintained cruise control to finish the regular season 16-0. The playoffs didn’t end as they wished, but there was no denying the powerful effect on the NFL in general and the AFC in particular.

Following that storybook season was the Tom Brady-less 2008 campaign. Matt Cassel did an admirable job, leading the team to an 11-5 record despite not starting at quarterback since 1999.

The Patriots still managed to finish in the top 10 in points for the fifth-straight year, but despite tying the Dolphins’ record, they were left out of the playoffs due to the tiebreaker.

The big question now is, what do these two seasons combined portend for the upcoming 2009 season?

Defense

2007 was a great season for the defense. Playing with a lead for nearly the entire season, they could pin their ears back and get after the opposing quarterback with reckless abandon.

The secondary only needed to hold for 3-4 seconds while the defensive line and linebackers rushed. This led to a total of 47 sacks and 19 interceptions. They had the fourth-ranked defense, and many believed that it was one of the best defenses the Patriots had put on the field.

After 2007, they lost Asante Samuel. Yet, somehow, the 2008 defense (with Deltha O’Neal replacing) still managed to snare a respectable 14 interceptions on their way to the eighth-ranked defense. That ranking seems high in retrospect.

The Patriots only picked up 30 sacks and allowed opponents to convert over 44 percent of third downs. In addition, they did not manage to get a touchdown on defense, compared to six in 2007.

Despite the high ranking, the defense looked tired, out of sorts at times. They were almost entirely ineffectual against the pass.

They ranked fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed, but this is dismissed by their abysmal 31st ranking in passing touchdowns allowed. The weakness was noticed and exploited for much of the year.

In 2009, the secondary has been revamped heavily. Last year’s starters, Ellis Hobbs III and Deltha O’Neal, have been replaced by veteran free agents Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden.

The Patriots also drafted Connecticut cornerback Darius Butler this year, in addition to second-year players Jonathan Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley; Wheatley suffered a season-ending injury against the Colts last year.

For the safeties, Brandon Meriweather took over for Rodney Harrison following Harrison's season-ending quadriceps injury and did well. James Sanders remains unspectacular but serviceable. The safety position was also bolstered by the drafting of Patrick Chung from Oregon.

What the Patriots have, in effect, is a group of players that, many of whom, will be in either their first or second year in the system.

Central to the Patriots’ overall success is how quickly these new players can adapt to Belichick’s philosophies.

The defensive line remains unchanged. Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour start, followed by Jarvis Green as needed. This is a solid group and still fairly young, given their experience in the system.

Ron Brace was drafted to back up this group, and they still have Mike Wright to provide support.

The strength of this group is the front three, though. I expect that the entire group will perform well, even better than last year.

Was the reduced number of sacks due to this group’s inability to get after the quarterback, or was it due to the secondary’s poor play? I happen to think it is the latter.

The linebacker group is actually the biggest risk/reward area for the Patriots on defense this year. Jerod Mayo played at ILB nearly every defensive snap last year. He and Adalius Thomas at OLB are the two best players in this group and will be the leaders.

Longtime veteran and fan favorite Tedy Bruschi will likely platoon with second-year player Gary Guyton, who may well replace him this year in the starting lineup.

The big questions revolve around the rest of the group. Will Pierre Woods step up and be the starter, or will Tully Banta-Cain, back from a short stint in San Francisco, take the lead role?

Shawn Crable watched last year from IR; can he become the starter?

Recent signee Paris Lenon is glad to join Leigh Bodden in their escape from 0-16 Detroit, but will he beat out Eric Alexander for the primary backup role behind Jerod Mayo?

Analysis

I’m not certain whether or not this is going to be a great defense, but the possibility is there. There are going to be at least four new starters, and that could prove a bit tricky at the onset.

Expect more pressure on the quarterback and a much better third down defense. There are several members in their final year of their contract, so you can look for a tremendous "contract-year" result for this defense.

They won’t want to be the reason that the team couldn’t get the Lombardi trophy. I anticipate that Tully Banta-Cain won’t make the roster, despite his experience with the defense.

End Result

Secondary (S, CB): Improved, but it remains to be seen by how much.
Defensive Line: Solid as ever, with younger players coming up.
Linebacker (OLB, ILB): Questions remain here, but this group could be improved over last season, barring injury.

Offense

The offense of the Patriots bears a striking resemblance to the record-setting 2007 group that took the league by storm. There are differences, though, and possible changes in philosophies that could come to bear in the games ahead.

At quarterback, we’re moving ahead to the past with the return of Tom Brady. Kevin O’Connell is unproven and untested as the backup, but then so was Matt Cassel.

It is expected (and hoped!) that he won’t get a chance to see the field much this season, except in late game mop-up duty.

The big question on everyone’s mind won’t be answered until at least August—how healthy is Tom Brady’s knee, really? Personally, I anticipate that it’ll be strong, but that his play won’t be quite up to the 2007 numbers.

But a 90 percent Brady is better than 99 percent of other quarterbacks playing at their best. I look for 4,300-plus yards and 32-36 touchdowns, perhaps with 12 interceptions.

Randy Moss and Wes Welker once again highlight the receiving corps. Moss has shown that his talent remains, grabbing 167 passes for 2,501 yards and 34 touchdowns over the past two years. He’s a true No. 1 receiver that teams must game-plan around and most defenses double-team.

Welker has picked up 223 receptions for 2,340 yards and 11 TD in his two years with the Patriots. Along the way, he has established himself as the best slot receiver in the game.

Don’t be surprised to find him catching under 100 passes this season, however, as the offense does more work on the running game.

The Patriots have lost two receivers from 2007: Donte Stallworth, who left after 2007, and Jabar Gaffney, who joined Josh McDaniels in Denver this year.

The Patriots have stayed true to form, however, signing Joey Galloway in free agency, trading for Greg Lewis, and drafting Julian Edelman.

Joey Galloway is considered a better route runner than Stallworth and has good hands and great speed—when he is healthy, that is. If healthy, he’ll start opposite Moss.

Lewis has been plagued with criticism throughout his career for route running, work ethic, and dropping passes. Leaving Philadelphia could be the best thing for his career.

New England doesn’t have high expectations for him, as they merely want him to do his job as the No. 4 WR, be ready to go, and catch the ball when it comes his way.

Julian Edelman is easily the most intriguing rookie on the offense. A former QB, he’s said to have slipped into the WR role with incredible ease, and he’s shown great promise.

That said, everything we have seen has been without hits and without pads, so we’ll hold off the great praise until we see what he does in full contact.

The tight ends are much improved. Ben Watson and David Thomas are no longer the consensus 1-2 of the group. The arrival of newcomers Chris Baker (FA) and Alex Smith (trade) could mean that Thomas misses the cut this season.

Baker and Smith are both good receivers and should help blocking in the running game as well. Watson will need to show the ability to catch the ball to match his athleticism, or he will be moved to No. 2 or even No. 3.

The running back corps has definitely improved. The 2007 group consisted of Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Kyle Eckel, with Heath Evans as fullback. In 2008 they lost Eckel but acquired free agent LaMont Jordan and undrafted rookie BenJarvis Green-Ellis.

Now, Evans and Jordan are gone, and Fred Taylor has come in. The combination of Taylor-Morris-Maroney-Faulk looks like the best set of backs since the Corey Dillon-Maroney-Faulk group of 2006.

I fully anticipate the Patriots to utilize the run more prominently in 2009 than they did in 2007. I expect a regular platooning—assuming health, of course—with Taylor as lead, followed by Morris and Maroney. Faulk would once again assume the third down or change-of-pace back position.

Still, don’t believe that the Patriots haven’t been effective in their attempts to run the ball recently. In fact, in the past three seasons, the Patriots have rushed for three of the top-four yardage totals since Belichick took over in 2000.

This includes the top three rushing TD totals and three of the four highest YPC average. Not only that, but three of the five most total rushing attempts have come the past three years.

2008 alone brought the second most rushing attempts, along with the most rushing TDs, yards, and ypc average in Belichick’s tenure. Running the ball has benefited from the passing game quite well.

The big question with the running game is what to do with BenJarvus Green-Ellis. In his rookie season, he rushed for 275 yards and five touchdowns in limited action.

Standing behind Taylor, Morris, Maroney, and Faulk makes it difficult for him to make the roster, much less get playing time.

Be prepared to see the Patriots and Bill Belichick decide to keep a fifth back this season, if for no other reason than the fact that Green-Ellis is no longer practice-squad eligible. That fact alone might well put him on the 53-man roster.

The offensive line, which garnered tremendous praise during the 2007 romp through the regular season, took some heat for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Last year, thanks to injuries and sometimes sloppy play, they went from being the darlings to being considered the dogs.

2009 could be redemption, and with some contracts expiring, this could be a last shot for some to remain with the team. Matt Light remains good at left tackle but has difficulty with quicker DE’s and OLB’s, which has meant shifting protections.

Logan Mankins is a road-grader with a mean streak, perfect for the left guard. Dan Koppen has been a solid center, and there’s no reason to suspect otherwise.

Stephen Neal is good when on the field, but he’s missed a lot of games lately. He’ll need to be healthy, or it’s an outside chance he might not even make the roster come fall.

Nick Kaczur is another who could be in danger and will need to take his play up a notch.

Even so, with a new QB in Matt Cassel, this group worked hard and tried to learn his cadence and his instincts. It shouldn’t take long to get into “Brady mode.”

There is new, young talent coming up in Rich Ohrnberger and Sebastian Vollmer. Thanks in large part to Dante Scarnecchia, the OL coach, the O-line will again be a contributor to the team’s success, not a cause of their demise.

Tom Brady’s knee is the biggest difference between the 2007 offense and this upcoming season. Matt Cassel took the helm in 2008, and the Patriots went 11-5. Cassel was also able to throw 21 TDs compared to just 11 INTs and compiled nearly 3,700 yards.

It has to be assumed that a healthy Tom Brady would be able to improve upon that, especially with the improvements in the running backs and receivers.

Brady’s injury, however, could mean a potential shift in how the Patriots approach games. If Brady is at 100 percent, I would not be surprised to see the Pats come out guns a-blazin', scoring points like mad from the start. Even then, don’t be shocked if the running game plays a more prominent role.

End Result

Quarterback: Tom Brady, expected healthy. Nothing more needs to be said.
Receivers (TE, WR): Improved, especially at TE, but how much is still in question?
Offensive Line: Dependable as always.
Running Backs: Best since Dillon-Maroney-Faulk, and quite probably superior to that. Could be best RB group Belichick has ever had.

Final Opinion

This Patriots team is positioned to reclaim the AFC East title and wants to recover the Lamar Hunt trophy on their way to grabbing the coveted Lombardi.

On the offensive side, there is no reason to expect anything other than excellence and tons of scoring; not equal to 2007, but superior by far to 2008.

They are definitely one of the top-10 offenses in the league and probably top 3-5.

The questions are on defense. If the first- and second-year players and recently acquired veterans can mesh quickly in the Patriots system, this could be one of the better defenses in the league.

If they struggle to keep discipline on their assignments, they could be middle of the pack and disappointing.

It’s my opinion that this defense will far surpass last year in all areas. Expect much better numbers for sacks, interceptions, third-down defense, and red-zone scoring.

Rushing yards allowed will be about equal, but passing yards will fall. This defense will be good and be a strong asset on their way to a February game.

Sudden Impact: People Who Will Impact Their Teams In The AFC East

Charles Henry — Thu, 28 May 2009 23:32:14 -0400

As we’re approaching the so-called “dead zone” of the NFL, June through Early August, it seems a good time to look at those people in the AFC East who need to have a solid impact on their teams in the 2009 season. These are people who will be called upon in a multitude of ways to help push their teams in ways that they didn’t or couldn’t in 2008, whether because of injury, being with a different team, etc.

I’m listing them in two ways – Impact Person, and The Other Guy(s). Regardless, they’ll all need to do well in order for their team to continue last year’s success, or to improve upon last year’s disappointments.

Teams are listed in reverse order from how they finished the 2008 season.

Buffalo Bills

Impact Person: Terrell Owens (WR). The Other Guys – Trent Edwards (QB), Dick Jauron (Head Coach).

Some people view the signing of Owens to be a coup for Buffalo, a huge step in a positive direction. Those who approve say bringing Owens on board is a demonstration of management’s renewed commitment to put a winner on the field. They point to Owens’ stats, shake their heads at the stats of Bills’ receivers, and believe that Buffalo might well contend for the division title for the first time since 1995; at the very least, make the playoffs for the first time this decade.

Those who disagree with the signing say it is merely putting a whiner on the field, not a winner, and point to Owens’ behavior for each of his past three teams. They say he is divisive, and tends to throw his quarterback, coaches, and other teammates under the bus when things don’t go his way.

Regardless of which side is correct, Owens must play well in order for the Bills to contend. It isn’t necessarily the number of receptions or yards or touchdowns he is able to attain. It is more important that he is on the same page with his coaches and teammates, and plays team ball. If he creates more opportunities for other receivers such as Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish, all the better for the Bills. The good news for the Bills is that TO tends to play well in his first year.

The Other Guys in Buffalo are Trent Edwards and Dick Jauron. Edwards put himself out there early in this, putting his full support behind the TO signing. Shortly after hearing that Dallas had released Owens, he sent a text to Bills GM Russ Brandon, suggesting that the team consider bringing the mercurial receiver on board. Now that he’ll be playing the role of “that’s MY quarterback” for TO, he must keep strong, or Terrell will push him aside.

Likewise, Jauron must now prove he can coach well in order to keep his job. He must manage the egos, the expectations, and keep the defense solid. If Jauron can’t manage the team and/or TO, both the player and the coach could be looking for a new team come January.

New York Jets

Impact Person: Rex Ryan (Head Coach). The Other Guy – Mark Sanchez (QB).

Rex Ryan was signed, and some in New York were cheering as though they’d won the Superbowl. What followed was an influx of new players into the team as Rex Ryan put his stamp on Gang Green. Credit must be given, he quickly acted to make this team his own, and left no question as to who was in charge.

He brought in Bart Scott and Jim Leonard, players with whom he was familiar. He traded for disgruntled Eagles corner back Lito Sheppard. He cut Chris Baker and others to create necessary cap room. Then he went after it all in the draft and picked up Mark Sanchez. “His” quarterback.

For Ryan, though, the real challenges still lay ahead. Fortunately, this is an excellent coach who can see the big picture. But will he and Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine be able to pull together these new players, and the rest into a cohesive unit? Can he build with the players acquired last year, such as Kris Jenkins (acquired by trade) and Calvin Pace (FA)? Finally, can he help to mold 2008’s first round pick Vernon Gholston into a significant and a player with impact?

There are those who believe he can and will get it done, and those who don’t think it will happen in 2009. Then there are those who hold a wait and see attitude. Put me in that last group.

Mark Sanchez, the aforementioned franchise quarterback, is easily the “other guy”. He’s The second quarterback drafted and #5 overall, Sanchez is only a short step from Ricky Williams’ lofty status of being a team’s entire draft. Ryan put his vote and his support behind this guy, and now it’s up to the former USC quarterback to prove not only that he can be a great NFL player, but the face of a franchise in a city where every time he sneezes it gets onto sports radio within minutes. Ordering a pizza becomes a TMZ highlight.

Can he take the pressure when things don’t go well, as often happens to rookie signal callers in a division with the Dolphins, the Bills, and Belichick’s Patriots D? Can he take the fairly pedestrian receivers and backs on the roster and work with them to make the offense better than it appears to be on paper?

A lot is riding on him. He might not start from week one, but make no mistake that a lot of Rex Ryan’s coaching future in New York rests upon his shoulders; or rather, his throwing arm.

New England Patriots

Impact Person: Tom Brady (QB). The Other Guys: Defense.

Tom Brady is the only logical choice for the Patriots. His absence last year was the injury with arguably the most impact the NFL has experienced in years. The Patriots went from title contenders to also-rans by the end of week one despite winning. Yet despite all that Brady brings to the table, the coaching staff adapted quickly, putting Matt Cassel in a position to succeed, and the Patriots became the most successful NFL team to miss the playoffs in a long time.

Tom is returning to an offense that could be equal to what he had in the record-setting 2007 season. The running game should be at the very least equal to and likely superior to the 2007 version. For the receivers, they’ve exchanged receivers Donte’ Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney for Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis. Yet the core remains as it was in 2008: Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and the offensive line. They’ve also added Fred Taylor to bolster the backs, and Tight Ends Alex Smith and Chris Baker to compete for playing time.

If Brady has a good season, the Patriots return to the playoffs. If he returns to his 2007 form, they’ll go deep into the playoffs. If he does poorly, it’s trouble across the board. No pressure.

The Other Guys, simply put, is Bill Belichick and the Patriots Defense. Much has been made about the age of the defense, but that’s no longer the serious issue it was at the end of the 2007 season. Junior Seau played well in my opinion when his number was called, but he’s gone, probably not to return to the NFL. Rodney Harrison is a free agent, and not likely to return. (They’ve both still got my respect beyond words.) Tedy Bruschi is still a starter, but he was in on only half the plays last year, a number which will be reduced further this season. Mike Vrabel, long a stalwart of this defense, was traded to Kansas City. Rosevelt Colvin, signed during the season, is back on the free agent list. These players are being replaced by younger players such as Gary Guyton, Shawn Crable, Eric Alexander and Vince Redd.

Much was made about the secondary last season as well, and rightfully so. However, that situation has also been addressed. Gone is Deltha O’Neal, the corner who seriously underperformed expectations. Ellis Hobbs is also gone, a player I’ve always felt was under appreciated. Jonathan Wilhite and Terrance Wheatley are back from the IR list, as is Tank Williams. Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden were signed as free agents. The Patriots drafted Darius Butler and Patrick Chung.

The youth movement is alive and well in the New England defense. Now that it is well underway, Bill Belichick must ensure that these younger players know their roles, and how to fill them. It remains to be seen how effective it will ultimately be, but initial results are promising.

Miami Dolphins

Impact Person: Chad Pennington (QB). The Other Guy - Dan Henning (OC).

Most of the reports on the 2008 Dolphin offense revolved around the wildcat formation. This is understandable, considering how it was a change on the conventionally accepted norms of NFL offense.

In the midst of all the direct snaps and unconventional plays, Chad Pennington quietly had yet another solid year. If the Dolphins wanted a savior at quarterback, Pennington wasn’t it. Despite the criticisms which led to him being cut by the Jets, he proved his leadership by leading the team to an 11-5 record and the AFC East title, an increase of 10 wins over 2007.

Those who dismiss his success point to the passing game’s heavy reliance on backs and tight ends, who accounted for nearly half the completions and yards, and three-quarters of the touchdown receptions. Critics use this to demonstrate the lack of arm strength, and how that can hamper efforts to go down field. However, in fairness to Pennington, it must be pointed out that while his arm strength has always been called into question, he still completed over two thirds of his passes. This demonstrates his accuracy and good decision making skills. These are skills far more critical to the success of any quarterback than how far it he can throw the ball down field.

The defense Miami puts on the field should continue the success they had in 2008, but how far the Dolphins go could depend on Pennington’s ability to effectively manage the offense while encouraging young receivers such as Ted Ginn to stretch the field and make plays.

The Other Guy in Miami is their Offensive Coordinator, Dan Henning. When Henning arrived in Miami, it was without a great deal of fanfare. Henning had coached in the NFL for over a quarter-century, with his most recent stint being as OC for the Carolina Panthers. He’d rebuilt their offense by focusing heavily on the run, and was fully expected to follow such a conventional approach with the Dolphins.

What followed instead was the entirely unconventional ‘wildcat’ offense, which caused fits for defensive coordinators throughout the league. It debuted against the Patriots in week 3, and proved incredibly effective as the Dolphins beat New England 38-13. They continued to use the formation throughout the season, forcing other teams to spend additional time in game-planning.

The pressure is now on Henning to continue the success of the Dolphins offense, with or without the wildcat formation. The Dolphins picked QB Pat White out of West Virginia in the second round, and it is presumed that he will have a lot of value in the wildcat formation. They also took former USC receiver Patrick Turner in the third round. Turner won’t be a speed threat, but he creates separation with his size and could prove a nice weapon coupled with the tight ends and receivers Ginn and Camarillo.

Henning must continue to develop new concepts and his successful play-calling in 2009. He must take advantage of Pennington’s strengths and develop wrinkles to keep the opposing defenses off-balance. If not, the solid defense that took the field in 2008 could be overwhelmed in 2009.

Patriots Sidelined with Salary Cap Issues

Charles Henry — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 11:27:24 -0500

From the 2001 season all the way through 2007 the New England Patriots were a true dynasty in every sense of the word. In that span, they won the AFC East Division six times, went to five AFC Championships, four Super Bowls, and won three Lombardi trophies.

They've had a winning record every year since 2001, just ahead of the Colts' streak that began in 2002.

A great deal of the credit for this string of success has to go to their ability to manage players' salaries and keep their pieces in place. However, that is also the same reason 2009 and 2010 look to be troubling for Patriots fans.

This year, the Patriots are currently right up to the edge with their salary cap, but that's only the start of the story. Free agents are the biggest part of it, so here's a list of the Patriots' free agents.

2009

Matt Cassel (Franchise Tag)
Eric Alexander
Rosevelt Colvin
Heath Evans
Jabar Gaffney
LaMont Jordan
Rodney Harrison
Pierre Woods

2010 (A Much Bigger Issue)

Vince Wilfork
Richard Seymour
Jarvis Green
Mike Vrabel
Ellis Hobbs
Tedy Bruschi
Kevin Faulk
Stephen Gostkowski
Logan Mankins
Stephen Neal
Nick Kaczur
David Thomas
Ben Watson

There are always a number of those players who will be re-signed for relatively cheap amounts, while others will simply be allowed to leave. Additionally, there are always players out there who can be signed as free agents. However, a number of the players on that list aren't so easy to replace.

Right now, I think the top priority for the Patriots is to keep the key players in their defense, and at the very least, that means signing Vince Wilfork to a long-term deal during this offseason. Waiting until next year to extend his contract would be fool-hardy.

But where do you focus after that?

The 2009 free agents that I think will stay for a relatively inexpensive cost are Heath Evans, Jabar Gaffney, and LaMont Jordan. Evans is solid but unspectacular, and he is an excellent presence in the locker room and will do anything asked of him.

There are those who dismiss the importance of Jabar Gaffney, but this year he isn't what he was the previous one-and-a-half seasons with the Patriots. If given a chance, I think he'll bounce back.

Speaking of bouncing back, look for Jordan to sign a one- or two-year deal somewhere, and I hope here. He needs to prove durability, and why not stay where he might have a shot at a Lombardi trophy?

Logan Mankins needs to stick around, as he's a road-grater out there, with a mean streak that's necessary. He's durable as well, not missing a game in four years. Forget Pro-Bowl nominations for a moment and just focus on what he brings to the field.

He's a keeper, and should be a lifer.

The 2010 free agent group has some that should come back into the fold as well in players such as Kevin Faulk, Stephen Gostkowski, and Stephen Neal. There are a couple who'll probably not be back like Richard Seymour (too expensive), Nick Kaczur (who might not make it through training camp), and Benjamin Watson.

Mike Vrabel, now a long-time Patriot standard, could be gone. The same might be said for Ellis Hobbs, who has played better than his stats and reputation have shown. One thing about Hobbs that can't be questioned is his desire, as he's out there nearly every game regardless of injury.

In the next two years, the Patriots offense could potentially lose both of their tight ends, their third-down back, their fullback, three offensive linemen, and their place kicker.

The Patriots defense could lose four of their front seven, their top backup defensive lineman, two of their top backup linebackers, and half of the 2008 starting secondary. That's a lot of loss to recover from for the Pats.

Much of what happens will depend on who is already in the fold. Players such as Jonathan Wilhite, Terrance Wheatley, Gary Guyton, Vince Redd, and Shawn Crable will be entering their second year in 2009, and they'll be examined as potential replacements for the players in front of them.

That's a lot of youth back there, which is both good and questionable.

Another major factor in the upcoming free agent market is dependent on the Matt Cassel situation, which is a situation dependent on Tom Brady's health. If Brady is healthy, the Patriots can deal Cassel and receive draft picks and/or players in return, helping to prepare for the future.

However, if the Patriots choose instead to retain him, it won't be inexpensive. Even if they sign him to a long-term deal, it will still put a high salary cap figure on him, somewhere in the neighborhood of $8 to 10 million. That's a lot of money to put into a backup. Unless, that is, Tom Brady isn't ready to go, in which case it's an insurance policy that's priced right.

That's the problem facing Bob Kraft, Bill Belichick, Floyd Reese, and the rest of the Patriots brain trust. Do you keep Cassel, or trade him? Do you re-sign older players such as Vrabel, Faulk, and Seymour, or head in a youthful direction? Whose contracts are necessary to extend, and who is expendable?

Many of us love to be the armchair quarterback on Sundays. We love to criticize the offensive and defensive coordinators and their play-calling. We judge the draft picks moments after they're selected, without any time for them to prove anything.

However, right now, I would both love and hate the challenge facing the Patriots. To be the Patriots GM would be an all-in-one dream come true and nightmare waiting to explode.

Considering all sides, I'm not sure it's a job I'd want. Then again, the food is great, the pay is awesome, you get seats to every home game, and you get to advise Bill Belichick.

Sign me up!

AFC Playoff Picture Gets a Whole Lot Clearer

Charles Henry — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 14:34:33 -0500

The Giants are losing to the Panthers in their battle for the No. 1 spot in the NFC. We still have the Packers/Bears game on Monday night, and I'm just not caring all that much.

Me, I'm an AFC guy, and the AFC Playoff picture cleared up a whole lot in the past 72 hours.

Here are the highlights: Indianapolis, Baltimore, Miami, and New England all won; the Jets and the Broncos lost. Six games which cleared up the AFC playoffs wonderfully. Here are the scenarios:

Broncos at Chargers next week: The winner takes the AFC West, the loser is out.
If Baltimore beats Jacksonville, they're in, sealing the final wild-card slot.
If Miami can win in New York, they win the AFC East.

So what are the scenarios for the Jets, the Dolphins, the Patriots, and the Ravens?

Baltimore Ravens

If they beat Jacksonville, they take the final wild-card slot.
If they lose to Jacksonville, they take the final wild-card slot with a Patriots loss and a Miami loss.
If the Ravens lose and the Patriots win, the Jets take the final playoff spot with a win.

New England Patriots

If they lose, they're out.
If New England wins and Baltimore loses, the Patriots take the final wild-card slot.
If New England wins and Miami loses, the Patriots take the AFC East title.

Miami Dolphins

If they beat the Jets, they win the AFC East.
There is no No. 2.

New York Jets

New York takes the AFC East with a win over Miami and a New England loss.
The Jets take the wild-card slot with a win over the Dolphins, a Patriot win, and a Ravens loss.

In the end, Miami and Baltimore control their own destiny. If they win, they're in the playoffs.

New England and New York need help to get in the playoffs. New England could wind up 11-5 and miss the playoffs. Here's what's scary, though: We could see New England and Miami at 10-6 miss the playoffs, the Ravens at 11-5 as a wild card, but the Chargers squeak in at 8-8. I just hate that!

But I do like the divisional winners getting in automatically, because it does create that rivalry aspect and makes those division games more important. But times like this? I'm not so sure...

2008 NFL Coach Of The Year: The Short List

Charles Henry — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 18:15:40 -0500

Some years make it seem easier to pick accolades than other years. For the 2007 season, it would have been difficult to choose anyone other than Tom Brady to be the MVP.

When a Running Back breaks the record for most rushing touchdowns, he's up there for MVP. When a coach does what Bill Belichick did in 2007—coaching his team to a 16-0 record—it's easy to gain Coach of the Year votes.

This year, it won't be so easy to pick the Coach of the Year. There are a number of great stories and great headlines, and they demand our attention.

I'm listing them in alphabetical order according to team, so as to not be biased.

Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

He hasn't done all that much. He's just a rookie head coach who has taken a team with a rookie QB in Matt Ryan and a first time starter at RB in Michael Turner and leading the team to a 9-5 record. The 4-12 joke of the 2007 season and all the circus of the Michael Vick fiasco has become a distant memory.

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens

Again, a rookie coach joins with a rookie QB to attain a 9-5 record, up four games from last season. Actually, he would be my No. 4 pick for CotY, but that's no slander. He's done extraordinarily well. Considering the egos that he's had to manage, he's looking amazing.

Tony Sparano, Miami Dolphins

2007's record: 1-15. 2008's record: 9-5, tied for the AFC East lead with two games left. How much more needs to be said?

Just a few points, actually—he's managed this with a new QB (Chad Pennington) who was thrown to the side by his old team, a starting RB (Ronnie Brown) who missed more than half of 2007 with injury, a second RB (Ricky Williams) who had only 6 carries in the past two season. Add to that the loss of arguably the best two defenders in Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas, and it's just a great story.

Oh, did I mention that he's a rookie head coach also?

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

The only experienced head coach in the lot, but don't hold it against him.

Losing Tom Brady early in Week One, but still pulling off a 9-5 season with Matt Cassel, tied for the AFC East lead—that's enough to put him on the short list of CotY candidates. But it's the list of players—starters and backups—who have been injured that clinch his inclusion.

Players missing on offense: Tom Brady (s), Laurence Maroney (s), Ryan O'Callahan.

Defense losses are also bad. Rodney Harrison went on IR in October; four LB's—all starters at one point or another—are either on IR or likely to be (Bruschi).

Despite this, the Patriots have won guaranteed their eighth consecutive winning season, longest active streak in the NFL.

All four of these coaches have good reason to receive votes and the award. If any of these coaches win the award, it's a good choice.

As a Patriots fan, I tend to lean toward Bill Belichick winning for a second year in a row. He's already one of only 10 head coaches to win multiple times (2007, 2003). However, only three head coaches (Allie Sherman, Don Shula, Joe Gibbs) have won in consecutive years, and even if the Patriots make the playoffs, it's unlikely to see him win now.

While my vote goes to Bill Belichick, my bet would be on Tony Sparano. Even if they lose their last two games, they'll still be eight games better than last season—that's half a season! He has done an exceptional job. Granted, he didn't lose the MVP in Tom Brady—but then, he never had him to begin with, nor Randy Moss.

He's done this with less than the others, in my opinion.

The New England Patriots Are Asking for Help To Make the Playoffs

Charles Henry — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 16:55:17 -0500

That's the question Patriots's fan, players, and coaches are asking right now: Can we get a little help here?

Okay, to be fair, it's unlikely that any member of the Patriots' organization is asking for help. That's not the Patriot Way, after all. The Patriot Way states that you concern yourself with what you can control—increased film study, focusing on situations on the upcoming game (not the following games, mind you), your play on the field.

However, many of us fans, who are entirely helpless to influence the outcome of any game, are asking exactly that—can we get some help?

The question refers to the ever-increasing times out there when a team could beat a team the Patriots are trying to pass to get into the playoffs, but fall short. As anyone familiar at all with the AFC is aware, the Patriots could win out and still miss the playoffs, even while attaining a once-incomprehensible record of 11-5.

If the Patriots and Ravens win out, they'll both end up 11-5. If both the Jets and the Dolphins win this week, one of them will end up 11-5, winning the AFC East. The Ravens take the final playoff spot, leaving the Patriots home for January. All that the Patriots need was for these teams to help out, just a little.

First, let's finally acknowledge that this year could be Bill Belichick's finest year coaching. When Tom Brady went down early in the season opener against the Chiefs, nearly everyone figured the following: 1) The Patriots would quickly sign an experienced QB to take the reins. 2) Even with signing someone like Daunte Culpepper or Chris Simms (two of the more popular names mentioned), the Patriots would be lucky to win seven or eight games.

Rabid Patriot-hating fans of other teams came rushing out like cockroaches, shouting insults, quoting inane karma references, the whole gamut of idiocy. NFL fans were able to see rude, obnoxious commentary on every site that referenced the NFL or the Patriots or even sports in general.

Personally, I found it more amusing than insulting. After all, if that's how you represent yourself and your team, that speaks volumes for you, now doesn't it?

(I would be remiss were I to not mention those opposing fans who expressed concern for Brady's long-term health and condolences for his injury. Colts fans said this more than most other teams, to my recollection.)

Personally, I predicted the Patriots would win a minimum of eight games, deducing that the defense would step up. Count me in as one of those who thought Chris Simms would be signed—I never liked Culpepper as a Patriot—and that he would start by Week Four. There was no way that Matt Cassel would be the signal-caller for this team, not after the woeful performance he showed in the preseason.

The defense, however, has not really "stepped up," not sufficiently to take the team to a winning record. And the Patriots did not sign any free-agent QB's to take over the offense, or even as backup.

It was Matt Cassel or bust. Most people assumed it would be both. Myself, I looked for that .500 season, a good draft position next year, and the idea that the team would be better for it, though it would be painful for the fans.

The amazing happened, though. Cassel showed himself a quicker study than anyone gave him credit to be. Suddenly, the team was winning games. Cassel threw for 400 yards in consecutive games.

The playoffs weren't a distant dream, they were a possibility. Patriots fans began to dream. A few more deluded fans even started asking if the Patriots should trade Tom Brady for a couple of No. 1 draft picks (insanity!).

They've already clinched a winning record, extending the longest active streak of consecutive winning seasons in the NFL (2001-present). Could they also keep their streak of consecutive playoff seasons?

We're in the final weeks of the season, and the Patriots just need a little help—and to take care of business themselves—and they're in yet again. Just a little help, right?

But then ...

Week 11: Oakland can't manage to hold the Dolphins off in the final seconds. (Let's not talk about how the Patriots managed a great drive to put the game to OT and then fail to hold the Jets in the fifth quarter...)

Week 12: Patriots man-handled the Dolphins, but the Titans fell flat against the Jets.

Week 13: Patriots got spanked by the Steelers, but couldn't the Rams have stood up against the Dolphins? At least the Broncos came through against the Jets (bring to a quick end the commentary about the Jets being the consensus best team in the AFC).

Week 14: Patriots come through, the 49'ers help out, but Buffalo falls on its face against the Dolphins.

Week 15: Patriots dominate the Raiders (not the first to do that), but the Bills hand the Jets a win after having the game in hand.

(It's 2nd-and-5, the two-minute warning is coming up, and you run what is, in effect, a QB option? After your last four runs—known runs—go for 4, 5, 3, and 5 yards?) The 49'ers also let us down, scoring only nine points against the Dolphins.

Week 16: It's the final game in Texas stadium, and the 'Boys give up 17 points to the Ravens in the fourth quarter? Worse, twice they surrender one-play drives, with TD runs of 82 and 77 yards? This after all the praise about the Dallas defense in recent weeks, and your offense's ability to come through in the clutch?

Now we're relying on the Seahawks and the Chiefs to come through, to help the Patriots out by playing spoiler. Personally, I think both teams are underrated at this point. They have better than average chances to pull out the win, with the Seahawks having the best shot.

Still, they would both be upsets, no question on that. And if they both win, the Patriots chances rest entirely in the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars, because the AFC East would belong to someone else.

Regardless of how much we fans are clamoring for that help, though, the Patriots' players and staff aren't even asking for it. They've got things they can do to help their odds. If they don't win against the Cardinals and the Bills, it renders all of this inconsequential.

The rules have changed. Since Baltimore won, there is no longer any margin of error for the Patriots. They MUST win out to have any chance make the playoffs, plain and simple. 10-6 won't do it. And who would've even believed back midway through Week One that we'd be saying that now?

But regardless, the Patriots don't entirely control their playoff destiny. So once again we're asking: Could we please get a little help?