Bleacher Report - Articles by The Goose

30 Bad Fantasy Baseball Scenarios

The Goose — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 11:22:47 -0500

For all of your fantasy baseball information, visit FantasyRundown.com.

Maybe I'm a pessimist, but it seems so many experts like to woo us with promises of .300 batting averages, 40 home runs, 50 stolen bases, 20 wins, or 200 strikeouts. Well, not every situation will work out perfectly so here is a list of 30 bad fantasy scenarios that could happen this season.

NL East

Braves – The Atlanta offense isn’t able to provide enough run support for their starting rotation.

The Braves were slighted by nearly every offensive free agent in baseball this offseason. This leaves an extremely weak lineup outside of Brian McCann and the aging Chipper Jones.

The Braves' proposed starting outfield (Francoeur, G. Anderson, and J. Anderson) combined for 29 home runs last season. In addition, the bullpen may be a bit shaky with Mike Gonzalez still fresh off TJ surgery and Rafael Sorianoa constant injury threat. It could be a long year in Atlanta with Jurrjens, Lowe, Vazquez, Glavine, and Kawakami feeling the effects in the win department.

Marlins – Cameron Maybin struggles out of the gate.

A year after the blockbuster deal with the Tigers, the Marlins have yet to experience much success with their haul on the Major League level. Sure, all of the players they received were young, so it’s way too early to judge the trade, but should Maybin have a tough April, the entire Marlins lineup could be shaken up.

Would Hanley Ramirezreturn to the lead-off spot? Maybin has the talent to post a 10 HR, 30 SB season, but is the soon-to-be 22-year-old ready?

Mets – Carlos Delgado reminds us that he is 36 years-old.

Delgado had a ridiculous second half last season posting a .303/.386/.606 line while blasting 21 home runs in only 66 games. Still, it is difficult to expect a repeat performance.

The Mets offense looks solid with Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, but should Delgado struggle, the rest of the lineup (Church, Murphy/Tatis, Schneider, and Castillo) isn’t that frightening.

The Mets were the ninth best run scoring offense in 2008, but without Delgado, that ranking could worsen, ultimately affecting the starting rotation as well.

Nationals – The starting rotation is lights out in April.

Yup, that’s right, that is the worst case fantasy possibility for the Nationals. I am not a fan of any Nats starters unless you are in the deepest of NL only leagues, so if they start out hot, don’t waste waiver wire priority, free agent dollars, etc., on a team that is destined to lose close to 100 games, again.

Phillies – The Verducci Effect seizes another victim in Cole Hamels.

Hamels was a horse for the Phillies all season, throwing 227.1 innings in the regular season. Based on these numbers, he is a clear top ten starter, but the added workload is a bit alarming.

Not only did he throw 44 more innings than the previous season, but he threw an additional 35 innings in the postseason. Total 2007 innings: 190. Total 2008 innings: 262.1. That’s a big delta for a guy that just turned 25 this off season.

NL Central

Astros – The Hunter Pence we saw in 2008 is what we get going forward.

After Pence burst onto the scene in 2007 with his solid .322/.360/.539 line, there were high hopes for 2008. His decline, while mainly seen in batting average, was predictable based on his unsustainable .378 BABIP in 2007.

Pence is usually drafted before the 10th round. With his average potentially in the .270 range, maybe consider waiting a few rounds to grab the upside of Adam Jones.

Brewers – Rickie Weeks struggles atop the Brewers lineup.

Last season, the Brewers lead off position had the 28th ranked batting average and 17th ranked OBP, mainly thanks to Weeks, who just can’t seem to put it all together. While I expect the Brewers rotation to struggle in 2009, the offense should continue to improve.

There is no reason for Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder to each barely clear 100 RBIs, like they did last year. If Weeks can put it together, the positive effects will be seen throughout the lineup. It’s getting close to now or never.

Cardinals – Ryan Ludwick owners realize that 2008 was a complete fluke by May 1.

With a 2008 BABIP of .349 and a HR/fly ball rate of 19.9%, I am a little suspect of Ludwick’s long term potential. Nothing in his peripherals matches up with his performance in previous seasons. Either he finally got “it” at age 30, or last season was an outlier. I am betting that it is the latter.

Cubs – Milton Bradley gets injured in April.

It is going to happen at some point, so I guess the worst case scenario would be for it to happen on a cold April day at Wrigley. I think Bradley and the National League is an awful combination, and I would be shocked to see him play 100 games this season.

For fantasy owners, take a pass unless he falls into your lap late in the draft. Depending on the depth of your league, Micah Hoffpauir may turn out to be a decent handcuff.

Pirates – Andy LaRoche turns out to be a bust.

The pressure is on LaRoche to produce this season or else he may find himself entering Andy Marteterritory. WithtThe Pirates adding Pedro Alvarez, LaRoche does not have much room for error. An anemic .177 BABIP, over 100 points below his .285 xBABIP, led to a .166 batting average.

I still have hope for LaRoche based on those numbers, but if he has a bad first half, he may find himself with his third organization before his 26th birthday.

Reds – The wrath of Dusty Baker rears its ugly head in Cincinnati.

Unless you count Aaron Harang as the first casualty, it has yet to happen, but the warning signs are already present. For example, why did Edinson Volquez throw over 110 pitches in four of his five starts in meaningless September games?

If you own Volquez or Johnny Cueto in a long-term keeper league, be afraid…be very afraid. Cubs fans learned the hard way.

NL West

Diamondbacks – Mark Reynolds will destroy your team’s batting average.

We all know Reynolds struck out 204 times last season, hitting .239 in 539 ABs. If we look a little deeper, his .329 BABIP may not be that disturbing for a guy who hits the ball hard, but an xBABIP 46 points lower makes you wonder if he could really hit .220 over a full season. This could single-handedly drop you a few places in BA if you count on him all season.

Dodgers – The Manny Ramirez negotiations do not end well. First off, if Manny signs with the Dodgers, there is no way he is able to repeat the ridiculous .396/.489/.743 line posted after the trade. Anyone who drafts him expecting those numbers should not be playing fantasy baseball.

Also, let’s not forget that this has become a very public free agent negotiation. Should Manny have a bad day, misread a teammate’s quote in the paper, or feel slighted by Joe Torre, the prima donna could return. If Manny does not resign with the Dodgers, look for Andre Ethierto return to pre-Manny performance,making him a fourth fantasy outfielder as best.

Giants – Randy Johnson wins his 300th game and loses interest.

There isn’t much doubt that Johnson is heading to San Francisco, in part, to top the 300 win mark. Should that occur at some point in the middle of the summer, is there a chance he loses interest as San Francisco is not likely to compete for the NL West title?

That being said, the Giants offense could make it difficult to get the five wins he needs before the All Star break.

Padres – Jake Peavy finally admits he wants out of San Diego.

At the Winter Meetings, there were stories circulating that Peavy was heard singing “Go Cubs Go” late night at a bar. Even if he is traded at some point this season, Peavy’s home/road splits cannot be easily ignored (career 3.80 ERA on road, 2.77 ERA at home). Depending on where he is dealt, it is possible Peavy drops down a tier or two amongst starting pitchers.

Rockies – The Rockies lineup misses Matt Holliday more than they anticipated.

Despite his struggles last season, Holliday has been a major part of the Rockies offensive attack the past four years. With Todd Heltonaging and the center field situation up in the air, the Rockies offense doesn’t look as menacing with Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe batting 4-5.

Don’t be misled by the ballpark effects of Coors Field as the Rockies were only 18th in runs scored last season. Without Holliday could it get worse?

AL East

Blue Jays – The Toronto offense is actually worse than 2008 and the Roy Halladay trade talks begin swirling in May.

Halladay is a great starter in any rotation, but no one likes to answer questions about trade rumors every single time they are interviewed. The AL East is the toughest division for any starter, so a trade may be a positive, but the months leading up to it may be the issue.

Orioles – Greg Zaun gets off to a hot start in Baltimore.

While I do expect Matt Wieters will take over the catcher position at some point early this season, what happens if it isn’t until June 1? That will make anyone taking him amongst the top 10 catchers in an annual re-draft league scramble to pick up the slop left on the waiver wire.

Rays – BJ Upton misses the first two weeks of the season and takes an additional month to get up to speed after missing all of Spring Training.

There are already a lot of questions about how Upton’s injury will affect him this season after he posted subpar power numbers in 2008. Six weeks of poor performance would certainly make his overall ranking amongst outfielders take a dive.

Red Sox – The wrist issue David Ortiz struggled with last season saps his power.

Wrist injuries and power hitters are an awful combination (Carlos Quentin owners beware), just ask owners who drafted Derrek Lee in 2007. Another trend to keep an eye on is pitch selection, as Ortiz is beginning to swing at more pitches out of the strike zone. If this continues, expect his offense to decline.

Yankees - After signing the huge off season contract, Mark Teixeira gets off to a slow start.

Teixeira has always been a notoriously slow starter, posting a career .964 second half OPS, compared to .877 in the first half. While you and I may know this, I doubt every Jeter-chanting, Yankees fan is aware of this fact.

Should Teixeira continue this trend, I would expect the fans to get on him early and often which could make him press. Dallas, Los Angeles, and Atlanta are nothing compared to the heat he could face in New York.

AL Central

Indians – Kerry Wood back is a concern all season.

Despite the claim that it is nothing serious, this recent news about his back issues scares me. Jim Hendry may have had a reason for not wanting to resign Wood in Chicago.

While his peripheral numbers were great in 2008, back issues landed him on the DL once last season. He is entering the wrong side of his career, so expect his numbers to get worse, not better.

Royals – The Royals are the worst team in the AL Central and Joakim Soria does not get enough save opportunities.

It seems as if this is the season everyone is willing to take a chance on Soria. Consistently ranked in the top seven closers, he will certainly provide a great WHIP and decent strikeouts for a closer.

But if you are willing to pick him near the eighth round, you would hope to get a decent number of saves out of him. Without many saves, Soria becomes an expensive Heath Bell.

Tigers - Jim Leyland decides it best to go closer-by-committee and no reliever collects more than 15 saves.

The Detroit bullpen is pretty crowded after the Brandon Lyon signing. Fernando Rodney is already complaining, and Joel Zumaya believes he is healthy. Throw in Ryan Perry, their 2008 first round pick, and you have a long list.

Unless Lyon steps up early in the season, Leyland may be forced to go with the hot hand, a disastrous proposition for fantasy owners looking to bolster their saves total.

Twins – Ron Gardenhire never settles on his best outfield/DH combination.

As muddled as the Twins' situation is right now, nothing could be worse for fantasy owners than Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez all getting somewhere between 400-500 at bats, thus destroying much of their value.

White Sox – Bobby Jenks continues to experience a decrease in K/9IP and save opportunities.

Since 2006, Jenks has missed fewer and fewer bats while closing fewer and fewer games for the White Sox. His K/9IP rate has gone from 10.33 in 2006 to 5.55 in 2008. Not surprisingly, his contact rate has increased from 77.8 percent to 84.5 percent over that same period. This is Todd Jones territory…you have been warned.

AL West

Angels – Both Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu show their age this season.

Hard to believe Guerrero is only 33, but it seems as if his characteristic gait may be catching up to him. Should he and Abreu begin to fade, the Angels will struggle to score runs, affecting nearly every player’s fantasy value.

Guerrero was never much for taking a walk, so as that bat slows, expect the numbers to tumble, maybe faster than for an average player.

Athletics – Every negative prediction in every fantasy article you have read about Matt Holliday comes true. I

In the recent FoxSports.com mock draft I was asked to participate in, Holliday was selected fifth overall, before Alex Rodriguez. Ridiculous. I admit that is the extreme, but if you are willing to use a second round pick, don’t you want to be sure of what you are getting? There are far safer outfielders to take before Holliday, so let someone else take the risk.

Mariners – Felix Hernandez doesn’t break-out…again.

I’ll admit it, I thought last year was the year Hernandez would become a fantasy star, but his season went with the rest of the Mariners. What is to say Seattle will be any better this season, Ken Griffey, Jr.?

Hernandez has never topped 176 Ks in any season. Should he struggle to get wins, I might rather have Ted Lilly roughly 10 rounds later, if willing to trade a lower ERA for more wins.

Rangers – Last season was the best power year Josh Hamilton ever experiences.

Hamilton was a fantasy star in 2008, at least in the first half. Sure, his overall numbers look great, but a sharp decrease in slugging percentage cannot be overlooked. Hamilton’s career 33.0 percent fly ball rate is very low for a classic power hitter. Is it possible that what we saw last season may have been closer to his power ceiling than fantasy owners want to admit?

For all of your fantasy baseball information, visit FantasyRundown.com.

Francisco Rodriguez - Underrated

The Goose — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 16:58:33 -0500

Courtesy of FantasyRundown.com

That is not a typo. All winter long I have read that Francisco Rodriguez is one of the most overrated closers in all of baseball. In fact, an unnamed fantasy Web site recently ranked him eighth amongst closers this season…yup, eighth. Is it possible that he has been called overrated so often that he is now underrated?

Look, I will be the first to agree with the notion that there is no way he even comes close to posting the 62 saves he did in 2008. Rodriguez had a magical season last year; I mean, the Angels provided 89 save opportunities to their bullpen last season, head and shoulders above anyone else (Cardinals were second at 72).

Let’s also not forget his declining peripherals, posting his lowest strikeout rate (10.14 K/9IP) and K/BB rate (2.26) since he took over the closer’s role in Los Angeles. Finally, his decreased velocity is a clear red flag. Last year, Rodriguez’s fastball averaged 91.9 mph, down from 93.6 mph a year earlier.

But these are the facts I would use to scare your fellow fantasy owners prior to draft day. Looking deeper into the numbers, you will see K-Rod is still alive and well.

First, the move to New York is a positive. Instead of facing designated hitters in the American League, Rodriguez will be forced to face pinch hitters coming cold off the bench—the same group of pinch hitters that combined for a .229/.317/.345 line in 2008.

I'll also mention that the Mets provided their bullpen with the third most save opportunities last season, 71. While this number isn’t always consistent from year to year, the Mets have the offense to come back in the late innings, which will help add to Rodriguez's chances.

Also, Rodriguez claims he was toying with a changeup the first half of the season. Thus, his fastball didn’t have the same velocity. I am not sure how that affected his actual pitch speed, but in September he was clocked consistently in the 93-94 mph range.

In fact, Rodriguez’s second-half numbers look a lot like his career averages: 12.3 K/9IP, 4.5 K/BB ratio, and a 2.05 ERA. I would be worried about Rodriguez if the numbers were reversed, but he got stronger as the year went on.

In summary, Francisco Rodriguez is still a top-three closer in any format. Expect the same dominant stuff and great results from the kid until his arm falls off (which I guess will happen someday). Just don’t tell your friends; keep forwarding them the “K-Rod is Overrated” articles.

Fantasy MLB: Overrated Youngsters?

The Goose — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 16:16:03 -0500

Courtesy of FantasyRundown.com

Everyone loves the next great fantasy star, but if you are going for the championship this season, sometimes it is better to pass on the potential for immediate production.

Here are a few of the younger players I believe are being overvalued after researching average draft positions from multiple sites:

Carlos Quentin (11th OF, 30th Overall)

Before fracturing his wrist in early September, Quentin was among the favorites for AL MVP. Posting a .288/.394/.571 line in 569 plate appearances in his 26-year-old season, you can expect Quentin to be a top outfielder for years to come.

Still, looking into his numbers, I do not expect a repeat performance in 2009.

Quentin should be able to produce a decent batting average in the .280-.290 range, but his 20.7% HR/fly ball rate cannot be maintained.

Also, and maybe most importantly, wrist issues for power hitters are sometimes devastating. Just ask the owners who drafted Derrek Lee in 2007.

While I do expect Quentin will someday be able to return to top form, it won't likely happen this season. In annual re-draft leagues, I am not touching Quentin and unless you are a rebuilding keeper owner, downgrade him in your rankings.

Other Options Likely Available: Jason Bay (13th OF, 34th overall), Matt Kemp (15th OF, 41stoverall) Nick Markakis (16th OF, 42nd overall)

Chris Davis (Seventh 3B, 86th Overall)

Last season, Davis made a huge splash in fantasy leagues, hitting for power in the best offensive park in baseball. But like Quentin, Davis had an abnormally high 20.5% HR/fly ball rate.

Even in Arlington he will not be able sustain that number over 600 plate appearances.

The same goes for that .353 BABIP—expect his batting average to be in the .245-.255 range until he learns to cut his strikeout rate.

This season, I am thinking Davis is Mark Reynolds with a slightly higher batting average. Is there value in that? Absolutely, but maybe I’d rather wait a few rounds and take...Reynolds.

Other Options Likely Available: Edwin Encarnacion (10th 3B, 145th overall), Mark Reynolds (13th 3B, 170th overall)

Other honorable mentions:

Matt Wieters (Ninth C, 178th Overall)

Wieters will be a great fantasy catcher someday, but I guarantee someone in every league will take him too early. Don’t be that person—take Bengie Molina.

Alexei Ramirez (Sixth 2B, 64th Overall)

Keith Law’s favorite player swings at too many pitches outside of the strike zone (42.6 percent O-Swing)—that will catch up to him this season. Consider Dan Uggla or even Mark DeRosa a few rounds later.

Joakim Soria (Sixth RP, 93rd Overall)

So few chances, I expect his ERA to increase and I am not convinced the Royals are ready to compete this season. Consider Jonathan Broxton two rounds later.

Were Two NL Fantasy Sleepers Created on New Year's Eve?

The Goose — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 08:39:09 -0500

Courtesy of FantasyRundown.com

Both a signing and a trade made baseball headlines on New Year's Eve: The Cubs traded Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three minor league pitchers, and the Angels signed Brian Fuentes.

I am sure you can go to many sites and find plenty of fantasy analysis discussing how these moves will affect both the teams and players involved. But my first thought was that there are two new sleepers to keep on your radar on draft day: Jason Motte and Mike Fontenot.

Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals

How does the Brian Fuentes signing affect a Cardinals relief pitcher? Well, Fuentes was really the only viable closer left on the market, unless a team wants to take a shot on Trevor Hoffman.

Having heard St. Louis is not likely to pursue Hoffman, this leaves the back of the Cardinals bullpen shaping up as Chris Perez, Ryan Franklin, and my guy Jason Motte.

Very few people outside of St. Louis had ever heard of Jason Motte prior to his late season call up in 2008. Motte, a former catcher, features a mid-to-high 90s fastball with a decent slider and was very successful in his debut last season.

In extremely limited duty in St. Louis, Motte gave up only one earned run in 11 innings, posting a 16/3 K/BB ratio. This was after striking out 110 batters in only 66.2 innings at AAA Memphis (a ridiculous 14.85K/9IP).

If the season started today, Chris Perez would likely be given the first crack at the ninth inning in St. Louis. But with his propensity to walk hitters (22 BBs in 41.2 IP), he is no lock to hold the job all season.

Sure, Ryan Franklin saved 17 games last season. But that was out of pure necessity, not because he was best suited to close. So that leaves Jason Motte.

In leagues where holds are a category, Motte can be a useful part of your bullpen the entire season, as he will likely find himself in a setup role out of camp. But if you decide to draft Chris Perez, I would add Motte as a handcuff. He has closer stuff.

Update: January 3, 2009, Tony LaRussa says he might consider using Chris Carpenter as the Cardinals closer. I still think that would not be his first choice, so continue to consider Motte a sleeper for saves in St. Louis.

Mike Fontenot, Chicago Cubs

While the Cubs signed Aaron Miles prior to dealing Mark DeRosa to Cleveland, the player who sees the biggest increase in fantasy value is Mike Fontenot.

Let’s be honest, Aaron Miles should not be starting for any Major League team. No matter what people may think due to the timing of his signing, he will not be an everyday player in Chicago. Also, even if there is a platoon situation, Mike Fontenot bats lefty and rakes right-handed pitching to the tune of a .911 OPS in 2008.

Finally, Fontenot is coming off a .305-9-40 season in limited duty (288 plate appearances). While his BABIP and HR/fly ball percentage is likely to decrease, a .275-12-60 line isn’t out of the question if given enough playing time.

Should he find himself leading off in that lineup, he could score 75+ runs. Considering where he would likely go if drafting today, that’s serious value.

Baseball Stats 101: How to Use BABIP to Cheat Your Friends

The Goose — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 04:49:45 -0500

Courtesy of FantasyRundown.com

Not everyone likes math, but unfortunately for some, in fantasy baseball, knowledge of statistics is a necessity. We are about to be barraged by projections in the coming weeks. While some may be generated using fancy computer programs, others may be compiled by just eyeballing a player’s career statistics. There is no way of telling who to trust.

There are many statistics you should look at prior to evaluating the future of a player, but one I have found success with is Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP).

For those of you familiar with my site, I am a big proponent of BABIP. I discovered it two years ago, and I feel it is a great way to determine whether a pitcher or hitter had legitimate success or a luck-aided, career year. Either way, you can use this analysis to pawn off a player that won't repeat last year's performance or grab that player that had an unlucky 2008 from an unsuspecting fellow owner.

Here is a very simplistic look at BABIP and how it can be your evaluating friend.

The Basics

How is BABIP calculated? Well, it is the measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including HRs). The exact formula used is:

Hits - HR

(AB-K-HR+SF)

Don't worry, you don't have to calculate it for yourself, as the best place to find a player’s BABIP is at FanGraphs.com, just below the Standard statistics. Baseball Prospectus claims that the typical BABIP is roughly .290, but the average over the last decade is closer to .300.

In other words, a typical player would hit .300 if he put the ball in play every AB, never striking out. On the other hand, an average pitcher would have a Batting Average Against of .300 if he never struck out a single batter.

So, how can you use this newfound knowledge? It is slightly different for pitchers and hitters, but it can be a useful tool in ripping off your friends/league-mates.

For Pitchers

You may be thinking that a pitcher’s BABIP has to do with the quality of his stuff, so the better the pitcher, the lower the BABIP. Well, do you know who had the lowest BABIP in the Majors last season with a minimum 185 IP? Roy Halladay? Tim Lincecum? Johan Santana? Nope, Dave Bush of the Brewers at .245.

Compare that to CC Sabathia’s .306, and you can see that luck is a factor in the success of a pitcher (those bloop hits add up).

As a case study, let’s look at A.J. Burnett, who had a solid year in 2008 with the Blue Jays. While he won 18 games, he carried a subpar 4.07 ERA. What can we expect next season?

Well, looking at his .327 BABIP (career .293 BABIP), you would expect that number to regress to the norm, thus he should give up fewer hits, lowering his WHIP and ERA. A.J. Burnett was actually unlucky last year and still won 18 games. Now if you could only count on him for 200 innings every season...

On the flip side, our friend Dave Bush can expect his BABIP to increase toward the .300 level. Therefore, expect a rise in WHIP and ERA in 2009. Dave Bush was lucky last season...and still went 9-10 with a 4.18 ERA. In other words, take a pass on him this season—I see bad things.

For Hitters

Hitters are slightly different, because as we all know, the odds of a ball smacked by Manny Ramirez (career .344 BABIP) turning into a hit is a bit different than for Henry Blanco (career .255 BABIP). So for a veteran hitter, it is best to use his career BABIP as a baseline. For younger hitters, .300 should be used as the baseline until a minimum of three to four full seasons of statistics are available.

Looking back at Ramirez, even for him, that .373 BABIP last season was a bit excessive. He remains one of the best hitters in fantasy baseball, but even he played a bit over his head in 2008. He’s not going to maintain a .396 batting average over a full season in LA...right?

Using the .300 baseline for younger hitters is a simple way to determine whether he will maintain, improve, or regress at the plate. Take Hunter Pence, for example. He burst onto the scene in 2007 aided by a .378 BABIP. Considered a disappointment in 2008, Pence produced a .303 BABIP. If you noticed the high 2007 BABIP, you would have been able to predict Pence’s regression.

Fantasy Rundown

If you take anything away from this, here is the most simplistic way to use BABIP to your advantage.

IF HITTER’S 2008...

BABIP > .300 = Likely will be worse next year

BABIP < .300 = Likely will be better next year

IF PITCHER’S 2008...

BABIP > .300 = Likely will be better next year

BABIP < .300 = Likely will be worse next year

Now let’s look at how line drive percentage fits into this...maybe next time.

Fantasy Football = Amateur Hour

The Goose — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 05:28:33 -0500

An editorial from FantasyRundown.com

Fantasy football is for amateurs. Yeah, I said it.

I have taken a lot of heat for making this statement over the years, but it’s true. Fantasy football is mainly about luck, this is why so many secretaries win fantasy leagues, no offense to football loving secretaries.

Think about it, in 99 percent of fantasy football leagues, participants need to know the names of six starting players on each NFL team: one quarterback, one running back, two wide receivers, one tight end, and maybe the kicker. Sure, you can argue some leagues employ IDPs (Individual Defensive Players), but most leagues only require knowledge of each team’s mascot to fulfill defensive requirements.

Argue all you want, but at some point in your fantasy football career, even the most well-prepared, football-knowing, super fan No. 99 has lost a game or championship to a guy who couldn’t tell you the difference between a 4-3 and a 3-4 defense.

This is why I love fantasy baseball…the luck tends to work itself out over a 26-week, 162-game season. In fantasy baseball you need to know who has the positive side of a LF platoon, the intricacies of a bullpen going closer-by-committee, and who is going to be the first pitching prospect that would be called up should there be a rotation injury.

Sure, people complain that the season is too long…amateurs.

Too much time is needed to prepare daily or weekly…amateurs.

There are too many games to follow…amateurs.

This is why the fantasy football market is roughly 10 times the size of the fantasy baseball market; housewives in Iowa are perusing the weekly flex rankings at ESPN.com. So guy in your Chad Johnson, LT, or Peyton Manning jersey enjoy the last weekend of your league because the real fantasy season starts at about 11:45 Eastern on Monday night when the Packers-Bears game is over.

Remember, only 57 days until pitchers and catchers report.

Fantasy Baseball Rundown: Best/Worst Free Agent Landing Spots

The Goose — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 07:58:51 -0500

Evaluations From Fantasyrundown.com

It seems as if experts love to write about the effects of a free-agent signing after the deal has been done. But with constant access to rumors all over the Internet, I decided to figure out where would be the best and worst landing spots for three of the top remaining unsigned free agents: Mark Teixeira, Milton Bradley, and Brian Fuentes.

Mark Teixeira

Teixeira will be solid no matter where he ends up. There haven’t been too many first basemen who can switch hit, play everyday, and aren’t replaced for their lack of defense. He is a consistent fantasy star.

Teams pursuing Teixeira to date include the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, L.A. Angels, and Washington Nationals.

Best Spot: Boston Red Sox—Aside from Teixeira having the ninth-best OPS in baseball, Fenway is a great place for a switch hitter. Imagine if he were hitting somewhere between Pedroia, Ortiz, Bay, Youkilis, and Drew.

On top of that, he'd be hitting in a park that boasts both the Monster (315 very questionable feet) and Pesky’s Pole (302 feet). If I owned him, I would be hoping that the rumors of the Red Sox pining for Tex are true.

Worst Spot: Washington Nationals—I think this is rather obvious. The wondrous possibilities of being in the Red Sox lineup turn into Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, and Josh Willingham. I can’t think of anything else to say except, please Jim Bowden, don’t increase the offer to some crazy 10 year/$200M deal.

Milton Bradley

Bradley is coming off a great season for the Rangers. When healthy, which is rare, he tore it up with career highs in home runs and RBI (22-78) last season. The problem is, he is never healthy.

He has only topped 500 plate appearances twice in his career, and last season’s .396 BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play) is ridiculously high, even if you look at it compared to his 24.7 percent line drive rate.

This guy is due for a major decline in 2009, so if you own him, trade him to anyone that will give you a decent return. Teams pursuing Bradley to date include the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays.

Best Spot: Tampa Bay Rays—This is easy. Due to his injury history, Milton Bradley will be much better off as a DH for the Rays. The guy is made of balsa wood, he is going to miss games, there is no doubt about that.

But odds are he has less of a chance of hurting himself running around the bases as opposed to running around the outfield. Assuming 500 plate appearances in Tampa, expect a .270-20-70 line…in other words, take a pass.

Worst Spot: Chicago Cubs—Even though Bradley would be put into a lineup that includes Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Mark DeRosa, Wrigley is the wrong place for Bradley.

Imagine the first fly ball in April that headed for the ivy…Bradley could slam into the wall and literally break himself in half. Chicago has a better offense than Tampa, despite the presence of the DH, but Bradley would likely have 100-150 less plate appearances if he has to play the outfield.

While injuries are tough to predict, I foresee a .270-12-45 line in Chicago. At least he’s a good clubhouse guy...right?

Brian Fuentes

Fuentes had an up-and-down 2008, at one point setting up for Manny Corpas. Still, he rebounded to post 30 saves and a 2.73 ERA in Colorado. I have always been shocked by his success, as I have expected hitters to figure out his delivery sooner or later.

Nevertheless, Fuentes posted a 1.10 WHIP despite suffering a .317 BABIP. I expect these numbers can improve no matter where he ends up. Teams pursuing Fuentes to date include the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, and the Angels.

Best Spot: St. Louis Cardinals—Who led the National League in save opportunities last season? It was the St. Louis Cardinals, who only converted 58 percent of those opportunities.

If the season started today the back of the St. Louis bullpen would feature the unproven Chris Perez, Jason Motte, and journeyman Ryan Franklin. Fuentes would clearly be the closer and have the chance to pitch in a relatively weak division.

Worst Spot: Angels—Who led the American League in save opportunities last season? It was the Los Angeles Angels with 89, 16 more than the Cardinals. An unbelievable amount, so unbelievable that it will not happen again.

This, coupled with a move to the American League and a crowded bullpen, makes this the worst landing spot for Fuentes. While the Angels would love to have Fuentes at the back of their bullpen, Jose Arrendondo is the clear closer-in-waiting. After every blown save he would be looking over his shoulder, this is assuming he wins the job in the first place.

Fantasy Baseball Rundown: The Winter Meetings

The Goose — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:25:38 -0500

FantasyRundown.com

With the Winter Meetings finally behind us, I wanted to give my opinion on the fantasy ramifications of a few recent signings which include A.J. Burnett, Raul Ibanez, and the less talked about Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce trade.

A.J. Burnett Rundown

A.J. Burnett threw 221.1 innings last season in Toronto with 18 wins and 231 strikeouts. While people may point to his 4.07 ERA as a major negative, Burnett dealt with a career high .327 BABIP.

With a career .293 BABIP, you can expect his WHIP and ERA to decrease, even though the Yankees currently are not a great defensive team.

But let’s not forget that he is going to have a better offensive team, replaces the Yankees with the Blue Jays on his schedule, and gets out of the surprisingly, hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

All of this adds up to a positive fantasy value bump for Burnett in New York, not quite the size a move to Atlanta would have produced. As always, Burnett can be a No. 2 fantasy starter if healthy. Everyone knows his health issues, so no need to rehash them.

If he does repeat his 2008 season, you will likely benefit, but if he's out with injury again your fantasy rotation may struggle. Your call, because I have no idea what will happen.

Raul Ibanez Rundown

Raul Ibanez has been a very consistent fantasy producer over the last few years—I will admit that—but I believe his move to the Phillies will cause people to overvalue him in 2009. My first thought is his defense, usually virtually irrelevant in fantasy baseball.

Raul Ibanez is a bad left fielder, no one can argue that, thus there will be some ABs lost when he is replaced in the outfield late in games. Also, there is no DH anymore to use as a pseudo “off day” like he could in Seattle.

These reasons, grouped with his age (turns 37 in June) and a likely drop in the lineup, makes me think he loses 60-80 plate appearances minimally. Sure, the Phillies are a better offensive team than the Mariners, but if he bats lower in the lineup or behind Howard, several RBI chances will be gone.

Ibanez is a fine No. 3 OF in most leagues; just don’t think this move to Citizens Bank will help him significantly, if at all.

Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce Rundown

If you are in a league where this trade doesn’t matter, quit immediately and find a new league. Edwin Jackson posted a career high 14 wins last season, a breakout year, right?

Well, here is what scares me about Jackson: He played in front of the best defense in baseball and still only managed an average .301 BABIP. Now he is moving to a team that is poor defensively, in a spacious stadium. Never a good combination.

You might also think that a move out of the A.L. East may help, but instead of the Red Sox, Yanks, and Orioles; you have the other Sox, Indians, and Twins.

He is still only 25, even though it seems he has been around forever, so maybe there is a chance this past season was not a fluke, but I don’t see it. He is a match-up play at best, and in the A.L. Central, those are few and far between.

Matt Joyce was a decent call-up with the Tigers last season, posting a .252/.339/.492 line in 242 ABs playing both corners in the outfield. He strikes out a lot, which is always a negative and had an average BABIP of .297, so what you see in average is what you get, a guy who hits in the .245-.260 range.

Also, his HRs may be a touch inflated as a high 14.1% HR/ fly ball will likely come down, especially in the less homer prone Tropicana Field. Let’s also not forget about his struggles against left-handers.

Facing righties gives him the positive side of his likely platoon, but I see a .250-16-50 season at best. Useful in deeper leagues.