Bleacher Report - Articles by Harris Frommer

The Top 30 College Baseball Recruits for 2010

Harris Frommer — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 21:12:22 -0500

In the final installment of our 2009 College Preview, we take a look into a future as we provide the top 30 recruits for 2010. Of course, many of these players will sign pro contracts after being drafted in June and will never step foot on a college campus.

1) Tyler Matzek, LHP; Oregon– This projectable lefty boasts a polished four-pitch repertoire, including a 93-94 mph fastball.

2) Shelby Miller, RHP; Texas A&M– Rapidly rising up draft boards due to easy mid-90s velocity and much improved offspeed stuff.

3) Matt Purke, LHP; Texas Christian– Eerily similar to Matzek, however he's not as developed physically and his motion is more three-quarters.

4) Austin Maddox, C; Florida – Simply put, a beast. An intimidating presence both at the plate and behind it.

5) Jacob Turner, RHP; North Carolina – Well-proportioned power pitcher with two-plus pitches and the command of a college upperclassman.

6) Donavan Tate, OF; North Carolina – The best athlete in the entire draft. Lethal bat, laser arm and blazing speed. Also a prized football recruit.

7) Zach Wheeler, RHP; Kennesaw State – His commitment to a third-tier program all but ensures that he'll head straight to the pro ranks.

8) Matt Davidson, 3B; USC – Coming off a down junior season, he torched showcase pitching all summer.

9) Luke Bailey, C; Auburn – The best all-around catcher in a loaded high school crop. Could easily start right now for most Division I programs.

10) Tyler Skaggs, LHP; Cal State Fullerton– Not as mechanically-sound as Matzek and Purke, but has just as much velocity with more room for projection.

11) Bobby Borchering, 3B; Florida – Displays startling power from both sides of the plate. An adequate fielder who should be able to stick at the hot corner.

12) Jonathan Walsh, C; Texas – Very athletic for a catcher. Smacks the ball from both sides of the plate and has exceptional mobility and a nice arm behind it.

13) Madison Younginer, RHP; Clemson – Superb mechanics and a picture perfect pitcher's build. Mixes a 90-93 mph fastball with a solid curveball and changeup.

14) Jeff Malm, 1B; USC– His smooth swing and slick fielding conjure up memories of a Casey Kotchman circa 2001.

15) Brian Goodwin, OF; North Carolina – His pure hitting/speed package elicit Curtis Granderson comparisons. A true center fielder.

16) Jiovanni Mier, SS; USC – Acrobatic fielder whose offense has started to catch up to the rest of his game. Enjoyed an excellent showcase season.

17) Mychal Givens, P/SS; Oklahoma State – Despite highlight reel ability at shortstop, his future's on the mound. Throws 95 mph easy with a good curveball.

18) Max Stassi, C; UCLA – Fantastic catch-and-throw skills, including a gun for an arm. Also displays surprising pop given his smallish stature.

19) Ian Krol, LHP; Arizona – A "finesse" lefty who has three plus pitches including a 90+ mph fastball.

20) Matt Hobgood, RHP; Cal State Fullerton – Already enormous and hasn't stopped growing. Rough mechanics could land him in the pen full-time.

21) Deven Marrero, SS; Arizona State – Silky-smooth fielder with an ideal shortstop's build. His bat lags behind his glove but is rapidly improving.

22) Jacob Marisnick, OF; Oregon – Projection oozes from his lithe, yet muscular, frame. A five-tool athlete who resembles Dale Murphy on the diamond.

23) Richie Shaffer, 3B; Clemson – A prototypical third baseman with a howitzer for an arm and immense power potential. Would likely start as a freshman.

24) LeVon Washington, 2B; Florida – The fastest player on this list who can play anywhere in the middle of the diamond. Potent bat with plenty of gap power.

25) Keyvius Sampson, RHP; Florida State – Live body and live arm. Already throws 92-94 mph and projects to throw harder once he matures.

26) Patrick Schuster, LHP; Florida– Has very similar mechanics to Purke, though his stuff isn't as crisp.

27) Chad James, LHP; Oklahoma State – Yet another lanky lefty whose three-pitch mix includes low 90s heat.

28) Slade Heathcott, OF; LSU – Can hit 94 mph from the mound, but his future lies elsewhere. Lightning quick bat and a strong, accurate arm from the outfield.

29) Will Myers, 3B; South Carolina – Accomplished athlete who has both caught and pitched in high school. Has undeniable power potential.

30) Danny Aldrich, OF; Wake Forest – A picture-perfect left-handed stroke. MVP of the '08 Summer World Wood Bat Tournament.

The 2009 College Baseball Preseason All-Freshman Teams

Harris Frommer — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 10:22:37 -0500

The 2009 college preview continues today with our Preseason Freshman All-America Teams:

First Team

Catcher – Jordan Swaggerty, Arizona State

Will initially share catching duties with JuCo transfer Carlos Ramiriez and should also see time in Coach Murphy's bullpen.

First Base – Danny Hultzen, Virginia

He easily could have made this list as a pitcher, but he swung the Cavaliers' most potent bat in the fall.

Second Base – Tony Rendon, Rice

His athletic ability will enable him to play all over the diamond for Coach Graham. He looked great in fall ball.

Shortstop – Andy Burns, Kentucky

Highest-ranked high chool prospect in Colorado, Andy held his own as a 17-year-old in the Northwoods League last summer.

Third Base – Zack Cox, Arkansas

Has prodigious raw power from the left side and a cannon arm at the hot corner. Will be draft-eligible as a sophomore.

Outfield – Brian Humphries, Pepperdine

If he develops more power, he has more upside than any other position player on this list. Should lead off in '09.

Outfield – Zach Cone, Georgia

Breathtaking five-tool potential, yet still very raw. Might see only limited playing time this year.

Outfield – Chase Davidson, Georgia

Has the most power in the entire freshman class, however he's streaky. Runs well for his size and has a strong throwing arm.

Designated Hitter – Harold Martinez, Miami

Will try to reverse a disappointing end to his high-school career. Expected to start immediately at third base for the Hurricanes.

Pitcher – Gerrit Cole, UCLA

The most highly-touted member of his class. Turned down $2 million from the Yankees and will bring his 97-mph heater to Westwood.

Pitcher – Sonny Gray, Vanderbilt

An arm injury and an ironclad Vandy commitment severely hurt his draft stock. Will probably begin as a weekday starter.

Pitcher – Alex Meyer, Kentucky

He turned down $2 million and a trip on Red Sox owner John Henry's private plane for a chance to pitch for his mother's alma matter.

Pitcher – Michael Palazzone, Georgia

Lanky projectable build with best curveball in '08 high-school class. Also features a 92- to 94-mph fastball.

Pitcher – Mark Pope, Georgia Tech

Will break in as G-Tech's closer, but he's too good to remain in the bullpen for his entire college career.

Second Team

Catcher – Ben McMahon, Florida

Will start immediately for the Gators and contribute both on offensive and defense.

First Base – Ricky Oropesa, Southern California

USC's lone marquee freshman should be a fixture in the middle of the lineup right out of the gate.

Second Base – Riccio Torres, Arizona State

Joins older brother Raoul in the Sun Devils' infield. Already has enough plate discipline to be an effective leadoff hitter.

Shortstop – Brandon Loy, Texas

He leveraged an excellent fall into a starting assignment in the spring. A defensive whiz.

Third Base – Shane Kroker, Wake Forest

A defensive standout who could probably start at shortstop for most teams. However, questions about his bat remain.

Outfield – Cory Farris, Kentucky

This former All-Kentucky running back showcased his exceptional strength with mammoth home runs in fall ball.

Outfield – Bryan Haar, San Diego

Uber-athletic middle-of-the-field player who enjoyed a banner summer in Alaska.

Outfield – Austin Stadler, Wake Forest

Had an eye-opening fall, hitting .396. Should also see time on the mound, where he led the Deacons in scrimmages with 21 strikeouts.

Designated Hitter – Zack Wilson, Arizona State

Will see action all over the diamond in '09. Hits the ball with authority to all fields.

Pitcher – Daniel Marrs, Wake Forest

Improved conditioning has allowed him to tighten up his body and improve his endurance. Should see action as a weekend starter.

Pitcher – Nick Maronde, Florida

Excellent mound presence and moxie are overshadowed by three quality pitches, including a low-90s fastball with tailing action.

Pitcher – Brett Mooneyham, Stanford

Will compete for a spot in the Cardinal's weekend rotation. His father, Bill, pitched in the majors with Oakland.

Pitcher – Brian Busick, Stanford

A pro body with four above-average pitches. A near lock to be a weekend starter in 2010. Will serve in the bullpen until then.

Pitcher– Anthony Fazio, Rice

He'll compete with fellow freshman Taylor Wall for the Sunday starter role. The loser will start mid-week.

College Baseball Preseason Second Team All-Americans

Harris Frommer — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 11:09:52 -0500

We continue our college preview by presenting our Preseason Second Team All-Americans. As was the case with the First Team, all players selected for this squad are done so based on their performance as well as their pro potential.

Catcher

Micah Gibbs, Sophomore, Louisiana State – A cerebral catcher in the Jason Varitek mold. Also is a switch-hitter, like Varitek, with pop from both sides of the plate. His compact body allows him to effectively block pitches in the dirt. Has the strong arm and quick release necessary to stop any running game.

First Base

Hunter Morris, Sophomore, Auburn – The most imposing power hitter in the sophomore class. Makes surprising contact for the style of hitter he is and has showed the ability to work a walk. An average first baseman with soft hands but substandard footwork and range.

Second Base

Kyle Seager, Junior, North Carolina – An excellent pure hitter who makes plenty of contact with hard backspin. His swing rarely gets long due to his simple, mechanically sound approach. A former shortstop, he has more than enough arm for second and is adept at turning the double play.

Shortstop

Rick Hague, Sophomore, Rice – A physical shortstop in the same mold as Green. He centers the ball well and has good loft in his swing. Is sure-handed with plenty of range and a cannon arm. Missed summer ball due to shoulder surgery, but should be ready to go by spring.

Third Base

Chris Dominguez, Red Shirt Junior, Louisville – By far the most power of any collegiate. First player on the Cape to hit three homers in one game since Frank Thomas in 1988. A solid fielder but will probably outgrow third base. Returned to school after being selected in the fifth round by the Rockies.

Outfield

Brett Jackson, Junior, California (Berkeley) – Perhaps the best raw athlete on either team, he was a standout football player in high school. Started to put it all together last summer on the Cape, where he flashed an intimidating power/speed combo. Should be able to stay in center field as a pro.

Brett Eibner, Sophomore, Arkansas – Earned more accolades as a pitcher in high school but has tremendous upside as a hitter. Though still somewhat raw, he's showed good power to all fields as well as the ability to hit for average. His speed/arm combo enables him to play anywhere in the outfield.

Matt den Dekker, Junior, Florida – A dynamic all-around player. A line drive machine who's developed more punch as he's filled out. Has had difficulty hitting with wood, however. Has blazing speed in addition to being an intelligent base runner. A true center fielder with an adequate arm.

Designated Hitter

Marc Krauss, Junior, Ohio – The second-best pure hitter in the college ranks after Ackley, but lacks Ackley's athleticism. Stung the ball the entire summer on the Cape and was especially proficient going the other way. Has an average arm, but poor speed could result in a move to first base.

Starting Pitchers

Kyle Blair, Sophomore, San Diego – Should battle Harvey as the best collegiate pitcher in 2010. Reminds many scouts of Kevin Brown due to his build and terrific command of a mid 90's power sinker and vicious slider. Sat out most of last summer because of a heavy spring workload.

Brandon Workman, Sophomore, Texas – Was unhittable at times on the Cape last summer, mixing a boring 93-95 mph fastball with an above average slider and developing changeup. His large, sturdy build should enable him to become a front-of-the-rotation horse at the next level.

Chance Ruffin, Sophomore, Texas – The son of 12-year major league veteran Bruce Ruffin, he has the moxie and poise you'd expect from someone with such a pedigree. He also has first-rate stuff, including a fastball he can dial into the mid-90's, a hammer curve and serviceable changeup.

Mike Minor, Junior, Vanderbilt – Compares favorably to former Commodore Jeremy Sowers. Throws the kitchen sink at hitters—a 88-91 mph fastball, spike curveball, slider and circle changeup. Not an intimidating mound presence, but should evolve into a reliable #3 in pro ball.

Barret Loux, Sophomore, Texas A&M – A big, flamethrowing Texan in the same mold as Workman, He uses an electric mid-90's fastball to set up his power curve and above average changeup. A well-conditioned athlete who maintains his velocity well into the late innings.

Reliever

Jason Stoffel, Junior, Arizona – Strong, compact build with especially thick legs. Throws a low 90's fastball with good movement as well as a power curve. Perfect closer mentality—never gets rattled and has a short memory. Threw a plus changeup in high school but hasn't needed it in college.

College Baseball Preseason First Team All-Americans

Harris Frommer — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 09:37:28 -0500

In today’s column we continue to prepare for the upcoming college season by presenting our Preseason First Team All-Americans. Just one note, however. The players selected for this team are done so based on their performance as well as their pro potential.

This is especially important for position players, who will have to make the transition from aluminum bats to wood once their collegiate days are over.

As a result, preferential treatment is admittedly given to hitters who have enjoyed success swinging wood bats in summer league play.

Catcher

Ryan Ortiz, Junior, Oregon State – An offense-first catcher who has made significant strides defensively. Extremely quick to the ball. Has also added power as he's filled out. His quick release compensates for a fringe average arm. Needs more work blocking pitches in the dirt.

First Base

Ben Paulsen, Junior, Clemson – Generates terrific power with a balanced left-handed stroke. Unlike most home run hitters, he has almost no uppercut. His swing does get long at times, however, which leaves him susceptible to high, hard stuff. A slick fielder with exceptionally soft hands.

Second Base

Robbie Shields, Junior, Florida Southern – Don't let the Division II school fool you. He derives outstanding bat speed from strong wrists and forearms, which results in power to all fields. Currently a shortstop, but his lack of range will likely force a move to second. His bat also projects at the hot corner.

Shortstop

Grant Green, Junior, Southern California – A new generation, five-tool shortstop in the mold of Troy Tulowitzki. Gets good extension on his swing with the ability to hit for both average and power. Sure-handed in the field with a cannon arm. Should be a top five pick in June.

Third Base

Derek Dietrich, Sophomore, Georgia Tech – A strong left-handed hitter in the Robin Ventura mold. Has undeniable power but is also adept at shortening his stroke with two strikes. He might outgrow shortstop, but his arm plays anywhere on the diamond. A probable first round pick in 2010.

Outfield

Dustin Ackley, Junior, North Carolina – A hitting machine who sprays line drives all over the field with a short, crisp swing. Boasts great speed. Should be ready to man center field in '09 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery last summer. The second-highest ranked position player after Green.

Kentrail Davis, Sophomore, Tennessee – Draft eligible sophomore has a potent left-handed bat capable of scorching line drives to all fields. Runs very well despite stocky build, though he's expected to slow considerably once he reaches his late 20's. A poor fielder whose weak arm limits him to left field.

A.J. Pollack, Junior, Notre Dame – Despite two solid seasons in South Bend, he didn't gain notoriety until he hit .377 on the Cape in '08 while flashing an impressive mix of power and speed. A solid center fielder who could enhance his value by moving to second base in the pros.

Designated Hitter

Blake Smith, Junior, California (Berkeley) – An interesting two-way player. At the plate he reminds scouts of Ryan Klesko with his light-tower power. On the mound he hits 93 mph on the gun and also features a sharp curveball. He currently profiles best as a rifle-armed, power-hitting right fielder.

Starting Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg, Junior, San Diego State – The most complete college pitching prospect since Mark Prior in '01. Throws a fastball which reaches the high 90's, a hammer curve and solid changeup, all with extraordinary command. Has a large, durable frame and sound mechanics.

Alex White, Junior, North Carolina – Another premier pitching prospect. Repertoire features a fastball in the mid 90's and a wicked slider, though he must work on his command and fine tune his changeup. Accomplished athlete with the stamina necessary to maintain his velocity deep into games.

Kyle Gibson, Junior, Missouri – The latest stud in a long line of Missouri aces. Already hits the low 90s with his fastball and should add a few more ticks once he fills out. Also throws the best slider in the college ranks. However, he still needs to tighten his motion and refine his mechanics.

Andrew Oliver, Junior, Oklahoma State – Eligibility is in doubt due to alleged relationship with a pro agent. Still, his talent is evident every time he takes the mound. Throws a heavy 92-93 mph two-seamer as well as a cutter. Curveball and changeup also show promise. Pinpoint control.

Matt Harvey, Sophomore, North Carolina – Likely the No. 1 ranked pitcher in 2010. Throws a lively 92-94 mph fastball with late, darting life, in addition to a first-rate curve and changeup. Excellent mound presence. His lanky build and easy arm action leave plenty of room for projection.

Relief Pitcher

Kendal Volz, Junior, Baylor – Had far more success coming out of the bullpen for Team USA than as a starter for Baylor. Throws mid 90's heat with a power curveball. His lack of a changeup and intimidating mound presence could translate into a closer role in pro ball.

The College Baseball Preseason Top 40

Harris Frommer — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 12:28:41 -0500

With the college baseball season set to kick off later this month (Opening Day is Friday, Feb. 20 across the country), now is an ideal time to switch gears and talk some ping. We’ll dedicate this week’s columns to previewing the 2009 college season.

Here’s the lineup:

Today we’ll give our Preseason Top 40.

Tomorrow we’ll provide our Preseason First Team All-Americans.

Wednesday our Preseason Second Team All-Americans will be available.

Thursday we’ll uncover the Freshman All-Americans.

Finally, Friday we’ll cover the Top 30 Recruits for 2010.

So, without further ado, here’s your Preseason Top 40 for 2009.

1) North Carolina

No school has a 1-2 starting pitching tandem as intimidating as Alex White and Matt Harvey.

2) Louisiana State

They have college baseball's most toxic lineup with a perfect mix of speed, power and high average hitters.

3) Rice

Will Rick Hague be next year's Grant Green?

4) Texas

Chance Ruffin, Brandon Workman, Cole Green, Cameron Rupp, and Kevin Keyes give the 'Horns the best sophomore class in the nation.

5) Texas A&M

Barret Loux, Alex Wilson, Brooks Raley, and Clayton Ehlert represent the deepest starting pitching quartet in the country.

6) Stanford

Brent Milleville, Joey August, and Jeff Whitlow will add senior experience to an otherwise underwhelming lineup.

7) Clemson

Once again, Coach Jack Leggett fields the deepest team in the ACC.

8) San Diego

The million-dollar question: Will Kyle Blair be able to replace Brian Matusz at the top of USD's vaunted rotation?

9) Georgia Tech

Coach Hall's decision to insert freshman Mark Pope into the closer's role speaks volumes as to the sorry state of the Yellow Jackets' bullpen.

10) Missouri

Max Scherzer, Aaron Crow...Kyle Gibson. Mizzou is developing quite a pitching legacy.

11) Cal State Fullerton

Gary Brown, Christian Colon, and Josh Fellhauer are all locks to steal 20 bases in '09.

12) Oklahoma State

Much of their success will hinge on whether stud southpaw Andy Oliver is deemed eligible by the NCAA.

13) Baylor

This is the last chance for Kendal Volz, Aaron Miller, and Dustin Dickerson to justify all the hype that surrounded them as incoming freshmen.

14) Georgia

Growing pains? On any one day there might be as many as four freshmen starting for Coach David Perno.

15) Miami (FL)

The loss of Erik Erickson to arm surgery could have a devastating effect on the Hurricanes' pitching staff.

16) Arkansas

Brett Eibner is the best prospect no one's ever heard of.

17) Arizona State

Will this year's freshman crop be as good as the one from '06? It better be, because the Sun Devils' fortunes depend on it.

18) Mississippi

After Arizona State's Carlos Ramirez, David Phillips will be the JuCo transfer to make the biggest impact in '09.

19) Florida State

Unlike highly-ranked FSU squads of the past, this year's version has no surefire early round picks.

20) Kentucky

The Wildcats will get as far as the freshman trio of Alex Meyer, Andy Burns, and Cory Farris take them.

21) Louisville

6'4", 240-lb. man-child Chris Dominguez gives new meaning to the moniker "Louisville Slugger."

22) UCLA

Gerrit Cole is our early favorite for Freshman of the Year.

23) UC Irvine

Talk about underwhelming on paper—we'd be shocked if ONE player from this team advances past Double A in pro ball.

24) California (Berkeley)

If Brett Jackson puts it all together, he could emerge as the Pac-10's most dynamic player.

25) Florida

There's always next year. The Gators are the unanimous choice for the strongest 2010 recruiting class. However, that may change on draft day.

26) Oklahoma

As good as the Sooners are, they're only the consensus sixth-best team in the Big 12.

27) Fresno State

On paper, the Bulldogs look merely pedestrian. Then again, last year this time people were saying the exact same thing about the defending champs.

28) Southern California

He's still only 19, yet we've seemingly been waiting forever for junior Robert Stock to bust out.

29) Pepperdine

Seeing how newcomer Brian Humphries develops will be one of this year's most interesting storylines. He has a chance to be a five-tool superstar.

30) Coastal Carolina

If Scott Woodward hangs around for all four years, he's almost a sure bet to swipe 200 bags.

31) Tulane

The Green Wave will battle East Carolina all season for the C-USA's second slot behind perennial powerhouse Rice.

32) Michigan

Chris Fetter is faced with the daunting task of replacing departed staff ace Zach Putnam.

33) East Carolina

Say all you want about Rice and its dominance, but sophomore Seth Maness could easily emerge as the C-USA's top pitcher in 2009.

34) Alabama

Brandon May, Ross Wilson, Josh Rutledge, and Jake Smith comprise college baseball's most talented all-around infield.

35) Nebraska

With six teams ranked in front of them in the Big 12, the Cornhuskers would have to put together a dream season to make it to the 64-team dance.

36) Auburn

Watching Kevin Patterson and Hunter Morris hit is in itself worth the price of admission.

37) Wichita State

The fact that Wichita State is ranked first in the MVC after losing its six best players speaks to the weakness of the MVC more than anything else.

38) South Carolina

Huge shoes to fill...Justin Smoak, Phil Disher, Reese Havens, and James Darnell took 79 home runs and 267 RBI with them to the pros.

39) Virginia

The Cavaliers have a solid core of underclassmen, but replacing David Adams, Greg Miclat, Jeremy Farrell, and Jacob Thompson is a lot to

40) Oregon State

If their pitching performs up to expectations, the Beavers could easily shock people and wind up in Omaha for the third time in four years.

New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals: Birds Of a Feather?

Harris Frommer — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 20:11:56 -0500

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals should never be mentioned in the same column, let alone the same sentence or headline.

The Yankees are baseball’s consummate high -ent tenant, perennially fielding the sport’s best paid team while playing in America’s largest city and media capital. Oh, and they’re pretty good too, having made the playoffs in 13 of the last 14 seasons.

The Royals, on the other hand, play in one of baseball’s smallest markets, continually have one of the game’s lowest payrolls and have finished over .500 just once during those same 14 seasons.

Their differences aside, the Yankees and Royals actually shared the back page this morning when both teams made superb personnel decisions.

New York signed veteran lefty Andy Pettitte to a bargain basement one–year contract worth $5.5 million plus incentives, while Kansas City inked young ace Zack Greinke to a four-year deal worth $38 million.

To state each of the reasons why the Pettitte move was a good one for the Yankees would be an academic exercise at this point, as every media outlet from ESPN to ranyontheroyals.com has dedicated valuable time and effort to that very task.

However, the one benefit of the deal we feel obliged to discuss is the tremendous amount of flexibility it gives Yankees skipper Joe Girardi.

In Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, Girardi has at his disposal two young, ultra-talented right-handers. Yet, both have serious questions as the 2009 season approaches.

After bouncing from the bullpen to the starting rotation in ’08, Chamberlain’s assignment for this season is still somewhat murky, as is the general consensus regarding his durability as a starter.

Hughes endured a horrid ’08 campaign after logging only a handful innings in Triple A, and many in the game feel strongly that he needs more minor league seasoning before giving the big leagues another shot.

The re-signing of Pettitte allows New York greater latitude in dealing with Chamberlain and Hughes.

Rather than having to once again force-feed Hughes, the Yankees now have the luxury of giving Hughes all the time he needs in AAA. However, should the 22-year-old be lights-out this spring and prove that he’s ready for primetime, Chamberlain can shift to the bullpen (where many analysts, including this writer, feel he belongs anyway), where he can serve as a caddy for Mariano Rivera.

Rivera, it should be noted, turns 40 later this year and is recovering from shoulder surgery.

As an aside, we feel Pettitte will have a strong year. Not only will he be supported by a better defense and lineup, as well as have the incentive of earning an additional $6.5 million in assorted roster/performance bonuses, but he’ll also be pitching for a shot at the Hall of Fame.

With 215 career victories, a 15+ win season would probably convince the native Texan, still just 36, to stick around in 2010. And if he gets into the 240-250 wins range, his sterling 18-7 postseason record, would help him considerably.

Halfway across this great country of ours, the Royals’ signing of Greinke was received with pure glee. And with good reason, as GM Dayton Moore hasn’t exactly impressed anyone with the moves he’s made this winter.

With new arrivals Willie Bloomquist, CoCo Crisp and Mike Jacobs joining Jose Guillen and Miguel Olivo in K.C.’s starting lineup, Moore will be paying over $24 million this year to five guys with career OBPs of .331 and under.

And then there’s Kyle Farnsworth, who was rewarded for his 1.53 WHIP last year with a two-year deal, guaranteeing him almost $10 million.

Alas, Moore finally got one right by locking up Greinke through his first two years of free agency. Greinke had a breakthrough 2008, finishing in the top ten in the A.L. in ERA, total strikeouts, strikeouts per nine innings and strikeouts-to-walks, and, at 25 ,is poised to emerge as one of the Junior Circuit’s top pitchers.

The new contract will pay Greinke $3.75 million this year, $7.25 million in 2010 and $13.5 million each in 2011 and 2012. Assuming Greinke remains healthy (not an unreasonable assumption since he’s never missed time due to arm trouble), he would be a very sound investment for Moore and the Royals.

To illustrate this point, we’ve used the table below to compare Greinke’s metrics with other right-handers of the same body type (i.e. between six-feet and Greinke’s six-foot-three) and pitching style who earned more than $10 million in 2008.

In the spirit of conservatism, we’ve assumed that Greinke at 27 and 28, his prime years when he’ll be earning $13.5 million, will perform exactly as he did as a 24-year-old in ’08 and not experience the statistical spike most power pitchers do when they reach their late twenties.

Player Salary Innings ERA WHIP K/BB

Greinke $13.5mm 202.3 3.47 1.28 3.27

Oswalt $13.0mm 208.7 3.54 1.18 3.51

Hudson $13.0mm 142.0 3.33 1.16 2.13

Vazquez $11.5mm 208.3 4.67 1.32 3.28

Sheets $11.0mm 198.3 3.09 1.15 3.36

After examining the evidence provided, it’s clear that even with the conservative estimate of his future performance, Greinke is easily on a par with his contemporaries earning eight figures per season.

Now throw in the fact that salaries will escalate between 2008 and 2011-12 (when Greinke is due his $13.5 million per annum) and it becomes obvious that the Royals got themselves one heck of a deal.

And for that they have the privilege of sharing the headlines with the vaunted Yankees.

At least for a day.

Trade Fair: All’s Wells for Yankees

Harris Frommer — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 13:30:41 -0500

The Yankees, by most accounts, had a tremendous off-season.

After finishing out of the money for the first time since Bill Clinton’s first summer in office, the organization went on a $423 million spending spree, which netted Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

In addition, General Manager, Brian Cashman, traded for power hitter Nick Swisher.

Despite all the fun Cashman has had playing with the Steinbrenners’ money, his job is not finished. The Yankees still have several holes; the largest of which is in the middle of their outfield.

If Spring Training started tomorrow, Manager, Joe Girardi would be faced with the daunting task of determining that from the motley crew of Brett Gardner, Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera, of who will patrol center field.

None of the three has any business logging significant time in center for a contending team. Gardner’s a gifted fielder who can fly, but he was overmatched in 127 big league at bats last year to the tune of .228/.283/.299.

Damon can still hit, as evidenced by his .303/.375/.461 effort in 2008, but chronic leg and ankle problems make his durability a big question mark. His popgun arm makes him a natural fit in left field.

Cabrera regressed significantly at the plate in ’08 and according to most scouts, they agree that his ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder.

As a result, the Yankees’ lack of a viable center fielder combined with the Blue Jays’ dubious financial situation paves the way for an intriguing intra-divisional blockbuster. New York might send outfielder, Xavier Nady; young starter, Ian Kennedy and prospect, Austin Jackson north of the border in exchange for center fielder, Vernon Wells.

Let’s first dissect how this trade impacts the Yankees.

In Wells, 30, Cashman has the opportunity to acquire one of baseball’s best all-round center fielders still in his prime. He’s a three-time Gold Glove winner, whose excellent instincts and cannon arm compensate for average speed.

Wells’ superb defense notwithstanding, it’s on offense, where the Yankees would really reap the benefits of adding the two-time All-Star to the mix.

While the addition of Teixeira will certainly instill fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers, that alone won’t completely offset the loss of free agents Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu — two sluggers who have career OPS’ in excess of .900.

While Wells is not an on-base machine in the mold of a Giambi or Abreu, he’s still a legitimate 30 homer threat who can hit for a high average while making consistent contact. He’d represent a significant upgrade over either Gardner or Cabrera and would be a perfect fit to hit in the five-hole behind Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.

Wells’ contract also works for the Yankees.

Although he’s owed $117 million through 2014, he’s due to earn “only” $10 million in 2009.

Assuming Nady makes $6 million next season, adding the incremental $4 million to the payroll would still enable Cashman to meet his goal of having a 2009 payroll lower than last season’s.

Wells’ salary does rise dramatically over $20 million in 2010 and beyond, but it’s important to note that Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon and their combined 2009 pay of $26 million, all are eligible to come off the books after next season.

Earlier we alluded to the perilous financial straits the Blue Jays could find themselves in going forward.

This is true for two reasons:

First, the Canadian dollar has depreciated by over 20 percent against the greenback.

Second, team owner, Ted Rogers, passed away in December, creating a power vacuum at the top and much speculation that the team will be sold.

Given the economic plight the Jays might eventually find themselves in, trading Wells and the $117 million he’s owed is not out of the question. This trade is about more than simple dollars and cents as Nady, Kennedy and Jackson are all capable of making significant contributions.

Nady is coming off an impressive .305/.357/.510 campaign and entering his walk year.

If history is any indication, he should be primed for another big season and therefore able to easily match Wells’ .839 OPS from last year. Nady would slide comfortably into right field and let Alexis Rios to move to center, his natural position

By acquiring Kennedy, the Blue Jays would be adding to an already-impressive stable of young arms, which includes the likes of Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Brett Cecil, and David Purcey.

This is not insignificant given the fact that every other team in the A.L. East — even the Orioles — boasts a plethora of young, power pitchers.

This trade would not just benefit Toronto in the long run, though.

With the recent defection of A.J. Burnett and injuries to Marcum and McGowan, the addition of Kennedy would provide the Jays with much needed pitching depth for 2009.

It is important to note that Kennedy isn’t arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season.

Though Kennedy’s 2008 season could be considered a lost year (0-4, 8.17), let’s not forget that he just turned 25 and his career WHIP and K:BB ratio in the minors are a world class (0.97 and 3.5:1, respectively).

Perhaps all he needs to kick start his career is an escape from the New York pressure cooker.

Jackson, the final piece of the Jays’ haul, has a skill set that is eerily reminiscent of Wells’ about a decade ago.

Like Wells, his ability to take excellent routes to the ball and strong arm make up for speed that’s maybe a tick above average.

While his home run power hasn’t yet manifested itself, his bat speed and crisp stroke suggest that he should be good for at least 20 dingers a year once he fills out and adds strength.

In all, Jackson would be an ideal long-term replacement for Wells and fit perfectly between Rios and Travis Snider in Toronto’s outfield of the future.

No Teixeira? No Problem! Epstein Has BoSox Ready To Roll In '09

Harris Frommer — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 23:24:13 -0500

Through the first half of January, Theo Epstein has demonstrated once again why he belongs in the top tier of baseball’s general managers. Thwarted by the Yankees in his attempt sign free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira, the Red Sox’ wunderkind was left with two choices.

First, Epstein could have tried to sign a high-priced substitute, like slugger Adam Dunn, in the hopes of recouping as much of Teixeira’s production as possible.

Or he could have ignored the high-rent district altogether and instead set his sights on established players coming back from injuries willing to sign short-term, incentive-laden contracts.

Epstein wisely chose the latter option.

For just $10.7 million in total 2009 base salaries, Epstein inked starters Brad Penny and John Smoltz, reliever Takashi Saito, catcher Josh Bard and outfielders Rocco Baldelli and Mark Kotsay. All are proven major leaguers, who have combined for a total of 8,466 at bats, 5,045 innings pitched, and, most importantly, 11 All-Star Game appearances.

Each of the six contracts signed represents pure upside for Boston. Not only do the corresponding base salaries barely add up to halfthe $20 million Teixeira will earn in 2009, but each also has a tenor of only one year (though Saito and Bard’s deals carry club options) and will therefore provide Boston with vital financial flexibility should any of the new arrivals succumb to injuries or poor performance.

However, should Smoltz & Co. fulfill or even exceed expectations, the incremental cost of all aggregate roster/performance bonuses is $22 million—a mere pittance given the Red Sox’ planned payroll of $140 million. And looking at each player’s ability and past performance, it’s easy to see how this monetary sum represents just a fraction of the potential on-field return for the Red Sox.

Imagine the tremendous boost the team would receive should Smoltz deliver 130 quality innings and Saito was able to flash his trademark 97 mph fastball and tight slider in the late innings of 60 games.

And think of the impact a healthy and effective Penny would have, gobbling up innings at the tail end of manager Terry Francona’s rotation.

And picture Baldelli spelling youngster Jacoby Ellsbury in center field or J.D. Drew in right against lefties, against whom he’s posted a robust .841 OPS in 508 career at bats.

Even if the six newest Red Sox provide just moderate returns in the middle rung of most fans’ expectations scale, they’d still serve three vital purposes.

First, they’d provide sufficient depth to allow Epstein to dangle other players as trade bait. For example, if the vintage Penny reports to camp in February, perhaps Epstein would have enough confidence in the depth of his pitching staff to address the team’s long-term catching situation by trading prospect Michael Bowden in exchange for either Texas’ Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Arizona’s Miguel Montero.

Second, the presence of guys like Kotsay, Smoltz, Penny and Baldelli will prevent Boston from rushing its top prospects. Now Clay Buchholz can have as much time as he needs in Pawtucket to hone his fastball command, while first baseman Lars Anderson and outfielder Josh Reddick will have the luxury of learning to hit lefties in Portland instead of at Fenway in the heat of a pennant race.

Finally, all six players will provide insurance against injuries. What if four-time All-Star Mike Lowell takes longer than anticipated to return from offseason hip surgery? Not a problem. Kevin Youkilis could simply move across the diamond to third base, while Francona could plug Kotsay in at first, where he excelled in the playoffs last year.

True, losing out to the Yankees in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes was a hard pill for Red Sox Nation to swallow. But Theo Epstein’s decision to sign half a dozen veteran free agents at discount prices could result in a far greater return, including yet another trip to the postseason.

Braves Overpay For Starter Derek Lowe

Harris Frommer — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 15:21:03 -0500

The Atlanta Braves, already in the midst of an underachieving offseason, are on the verge of significantly overpaying for Derek Lowe. Make no mistake, Lowe is an excellent pitcher who has enjoyed considerable success in seven years as a starter; however, he’s not worth the four-year/$60 million contract he’s about to sign.

We’ve already implied how much we like Lowe. In fact, in this very column we argued strongly the lanky right-hander would be a perfect fit for the Red Sox (a better fit, in fact, than slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira). But what works for the Red Sox obviously doesn’t work for the Braves. With studs Josh Beckett and Jon Lester fronting Boston’s starting five, Lowe would have slid very comfortably into the middle of the Red Sox’ rotation, where his durability and groundball-inducing sinker would have made him an ideal No. 3 starter on a championship caliber team.

The Braves, on the other hand, are asking Lowe to be their ace. And given the type of pitcher the lanky right-hander is, that just won’t work. A proven workhorse who has not missed a single start over the last seven seasons, Lowe is perfectly capable of posting quality start after quality start over the long haul of a 162-game season.

However, what he is not capable of doing is out-dueling Cole Hamels or Johan Santana in the heat of a pennant race. And that’s exactly the elixir Atlanta needed this offseason.

The Braves began the offseason by almost acquiring Jake Peavy from the Padres. Peavy, still only 27, is just the pitcher who could have stuck a dagger in the Phillies’ or Mets’ hearts come August or September. He has averaged a strikeout per inning during his career, posted an ERA under 3.00 in four of the last five seasons and won the CY Young in 2007.

Plus, at $56 million over the next four years (not counting the $22 million club option for 2013), he represents a fixed cost well within the Braves’ budget. However, negotiations collapsed in the 11th hour and Peavy remains a Padre.

The Braves were also close to inking A.J. Burnett to a long-term deal. When healthy, Burnett might even have better stuff than Peavy. He also would have been aided by a move to the weaker National League. But the Yankees’ $82.5 million offer was too much for the 32-year-old righty to pass up and he’ll be donning Pinstripes for the next five years.

Along the way, GM Frank Wren traded for Javier Vazquez and signed Japanese free agent Kenshin Kawakami. Both pitchers’ m.o. is similar to that of Lowe—innings eaters who will provide quality innings, but will never be mistaken for the ace of a staff.

So with Spring Training just five weeks away, Wren found himself in a quandary. With the acquisitions of Vazquez and Kawakami, he had committed nearly $20 million to the Braves ’09 payroll, yet still had no ace. And with Peavy and Burnett off the table, his options were dwindling.

Thus, Wren panicked and gave Lowe and his agent, Scott Boras, whatever they wanted, which appears to be a king’s ransom.

But the question remains. Could Wren have done anything differently?

The answer is a resounding yes.

He had two options. The first we discussed in this column on Dec. 31 and would have entailed acquiring Zack Greinke from the Royals. It would have likely cost the Braves standout shortstop Yunel Escobar, but Escobar is replaceable and in Greinke, Atlanta would have obtained a young ace still two years away from free agency.

The other option would have been far more controversial but carried with it more potential upside—signing free agent Ben Sheets to an incentive-laden one-year deal.

When healthy, Sheets’ stuff is right up there with Peavy and Burnett’s. However, staying off the disabled list has been a monumental task for Sheets since 2004. He was actually well on his way in ’08 until he tore a muscle in his forearm and had to miss some time in September as well as the postseason. The seriousness of the injury has been a point of contention around baseball.

Sheets’ agent, Casey Close, claims his client should be 100 percent recovered by Spring Training and has been willing to share Sheets’ medical reports with potential suitors. Various executives, however, have their doubts and cite Sheets’ lengthy injury history as reason enough to steer clear of a long-term deal (Sheets has missed 32 starts—the equivalent of one full season—since 2005).

The Braves should have taken advantage of this stalemate by offering Sheets a one-year/$8 million deal with another $8 million in innings-based incentives, as well as a $16 million option for 2010 that would have vested after 200 innings. This would have made sense for both sides.

If Sheets pulled up lame, he’d be off the Braves books in a year. But a healthy Sheets would have surely propelled the Braves into contention, because when he pitches, the fireballer is lights out. In fact, Sheets’ lifetime 1.20 WHIP is nearly identical to Peavy’s 1.19 mark and is better than Lowe’s (1.27) and Burnett’s (1.28).

This contract would have been a no-brainer for Sheets as well. With no other serious pursuers, Sheets would have had the opportunity to earn up to $16 million in 2009 and 2010 and re-enter the free agent market in the winter of 2010-11 while still just 32. Now, he’s left to try and find a job in the worst free agent market since collusion more than two decades ago.

And the Braves are left to fend for themselves without a bona fide ace in a division which has two of the game's best in Hamels and Santana. It should be another disappointing summer in Dixie.

Major League Baseball's 30 General Managers: Who's the Best?

Harris Frommer — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 06:57:51 -0500

As the Hot Stove League continues to sizzle, let’s take a step back and evaluate the guys making all the key decisions this winter. We’ve placed each of the 30 current GMs in one of six categories based on recent job performance as well as past results. In the spirit of fairness, the jury’s still out on nine guys who’ve been GM for less than two full years—they simply have not had sufficient time to make a mark at their new positions. However, there are two notable exceptions: Andy MacPhail of the Orioles and Walt Jocketty of the Reds enjoyed so much success at prior jobs we were comfortable ranking them.

The Elite

1) Billy Beane, Oakland A’s – No GM has done more with less for so long. The standard bearer for other small market GMs. After a down 2007 and 2008 look for the A’s to rebound this year.

2) Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox – Boston’s immense payroll notwithstanding, he’s accumulated more hardware than anyone since 2003 (five playoff appearances and two World Championships). Epstein has enjoyed unbridled success going against the grain of sentimentality (see trades of Garciaparra, Nomar and Ramirez, Manny) while delivering on his promise to transform the organization into a “player development machine.”

3) Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers – Surprised? Don’t be. He led Texas to that organization’s only three postseason appearances then laid the groundwork for the Brewers’ first playoff game in 26 years. Last July’s trade for C.C. Sabathia was a master stroke. It won’t get any easier following the departures of Sabathia, Ben Sheets and all-world scouting director Jack Zduriencik.

Knocking on the Door

4) Kenny Williams, Chicago White Sox – Williams changes his spots more than a chameleon. He successfully added veterans prior to the ChiSox’ World Series run in 2005 then shortly thereafter started building for the long term by adding young talent in Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Carlos Quentin, and Tyler Flowers. Regardless of the strategy, he just wins.

5) Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay Rays – Though Chuck Lamar’s regime deserves some credit for laying some of the groundwork, it’s Friedman who assembled the final—and most important—pieces for the Rays’ dramatic run in ’08. His trade for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett was especially brilliant, as was his signing of Pat Burrell at a deep discount. Don’t be shocked if Friedman’s machinations enable Tampa to hold off the resurgent Yankees in ’09.

6) David Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers – Despite a disastrous ’08, Dombrowski’s 20-year track record speaks for itself. He laid the foundation for the pre-strike juggernaut in Montreal, then put together a World Series winner in Florida. And he had righted the ship in Detroit prior to last year’s debacle. But after a winter filled with under-the-radar transactions, the Tigers should be poised to contend again in ’09.

7) Walt Jocketty, Cincinnati Reds – Jocketty has been the Reds’ GM for under a year, however, his 13-year record with the Cardinals speaks for itself – six division titles, two National League Championships and one World Series Championship. He’s had a tough offseason thus far, but with most of the mid-tier free agents still unsigned we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Rock Solid

8) Andy MacPhail, Baltimore Orioles – He’s been with the Orioles for just 18 months, but has already made his mark in player procurement/development. The organization has also refrained from the senseless trades and signings that had plagued it in the past. A first-rate GM while with Minnesota, as evidenced by World Championships in 1987 and 1991.

9) Mark Shapiro, Cleveland Indians – Had the unenviable task of taking over for John Hart after the Tribe’s revenue streams had maxed out earlier this decade. His Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips deal in 2002 ranks as one of the top ten trades of all time. Has done an excellent job repairing the Indians’ bullpen this winter, putting the club in a strong position to contend in ’09.

10) Kevin Towers, San Diego Padres – Has been GM since 1996—the longest tenure in baseball—and guided the club to four postseason appearances, including the 1998 World Series. Very adept at salvaging useful relievers from the trash heap. Owner John Moores’ current divorce saga has left him hamstrung.

11) Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants – If this list were complied in 2005, when the Giants were in the midst of eight consecutive winning seasons with four playoff appearances interspersed among them, Sabean would have likely been in the top five. However, life without Barry Bonds isn’t easy. After four straight losing seasons, Sabean’s Giants might finally be ready to rebound with an excellent starting rotation and the farm system in the best shape it’s been in years.

12) Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers – If there was a “Most Improved” award he’d probably win it. He’s recovered nicely from trading away Alfonso Soriano, Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and John Danks. Josh Hamilton was a very fair return for Edinson Volquez, while the bumper crop of prospects Daniels received in the Mark Teixeira and Eric Gagne trades has left the farm system in excellent shape. The Rangers could very well become the Rays of 2010.

13) Josh Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks – He inherited a team already stacked with young talent. His decisions to grant Eric Byrnes (no relation) a pricy extension and practically give away Carlos Quentin have been much maligned. However, Byrnes’ trade for Dan Haren significantly bolstered the club’s pitching.

14) Brian Cashman, New York Yankees – By far the toughest GM to evaluate. While the Steinbrenners’ deep pockets have masked his many expensive failures (Hideki Irabu, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, just to name just a few), the bottom line is that the Yankees have made it to the postseason in 10 of Cashman’s 11 years at the helm. Cashman should also be commended for his dexterity in dealing with the New York media and various factions within the Yankees’ universe.

Disappointing

15) Omar Minaya, New York Mets – While he has had some good free agent signings (Carlos Beltran sure looks like a bargain now) and made some astute trades (John Maine was a steal), Minaya should be held accountable for the Mets’ last two September swoons. Where was he last year after Billy Wagner went down and the Mets desperately needed bullpen help? With a new stadium generating consistent revenue streams in a mega market, Minaya has run out of excuses.

16) Jim Hendry, Chicago Cubs – Like Cashman, Hendry’s tenure is a tough one to evaluate. While the Cubs have won three division titles during his reign, they’ve also finished in the second division twice—despite an astronomical payroll. He’s made some great trades (Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez), but some clunkers as well (Dontrelle Willis). There’s no doubt that if Kerry Wood and Mark Prior had not missed so much time because of arm trouble Hendry would be much higher on this list.

17) Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers – Also a very mixed record. He’s blown tens of millions on signing has-beens like Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, and, of course, Andruw Jones; yet he was able to get the Red Sox to fully underwrite nearly half a season of Manny Ramirez and the Indians to do the same with Casey Blake en route to a division title in last season. And his hiring of Joe Torre offset the Grady Little debacle.

Looking over their shoulders

18) Dan O’Dowd, Colorado Rockies – Aside from the club’s miracle run in ’07, not much has gone right during his ten-year tenure. In fact, at one point the team had posted seven consecutive last place or second-to-last place finishes. The Danny Neagle and Mike Hampton free agent signings rank among the costliest blunders in baseball history.

19) J.P. Ricciardi, Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays have been stuck in neutral throughout his seven-year tenure, with each of his teams seemingly lacking a vital component. In 2008, the missing piece was offense. And with a middling farm system, the result of underwhelming drafts, the Jays will likely be mired in no man’s land for the foreseeable future.

20) Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals – Blame the Royals’ small market status all you want, but Moore simply hasn’t done a good job. Signing Gil Meche to a lucrative long-term deal has been a success, but Jose Guillen’s contract is turning into an albatross. Moore’s managerial hire, Trey Hillman, has also not worked out as the latter lost control of the clubhouse last season. One sliver of hope is the organization’s improving farm system.

21) Jim Bowden, Washington Nationals – He’s developed a strange fetish for outfielders who can’t make contact and underachieving first round picks. And his failure to reach a consensus with top pick Aaron Crow was a huge setback for an organization in desperate need of young mound talent.

Only Time Will Tell

n Ruben Amaro Jr., Philadelphia Phillies – Huge shoes to fill! He replaces one of the best ever in Pat Gillick following the Phillies first World Championship in 28 years.

n Michael Hill, Florida Marlins – Has already unloaded Mike Jacobs, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham and Kevin Gregg in his first offseason. Welcome to Miami, home of the cheapest owner in professional sports.

n Neil Huntington, Pittsburgh Pirates – He’s got long road ahead of him, but at least he got last year’s draft right.

n John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals – He must do more to revamp the Cardinals’ beleaguered pitching staff.

n Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim –The big market Angels have been strangely quiet after losing Mark Teixeira. Watch this guy over the next month.

n Bill Smith, Minnesota Twins – He tried to get cute and received a sub-par return for Johan Santana. Let’s see if he’ll be able to keep Joe Maurer in the Twin Cities after 2010.

n Ed Wade, Houston Astros – Ever since the Phillies, his former team, hoisted that World Series trophy he’s looked a lot smarter.

n Frank Wren, Atlanta Braves – Yet another new GM who has the daunting task of replacing a legend (John Schuerholz). His ability to land an ace will go a long way to determining his ranking next year.

n Jack Zduriencik, Seattle Mariners – Tremendous scouting mind could have as many as four picks within the top 34 selections in this June’s draft.

Tampa Bay Rays Strike Gold With Pat Burrell Signing

Harris Frommer — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:08:11 -0500

The Tampa Bay Rays’ signing of Pat Burrell earlier today is yet another example of the sound baseball decisions now being made at Tropicana Field. The inking of Burrell to a 2-year, $16 million deal was a master-stroke by GM Andrew Friedman and his staff for the following reasons:

The Rays played the waiting game perfectly. As early as November, Friedman & Co saw the downward pricing pressure the recession and glut of available corner outfielders would exert on the free agent market, and decided let the market flush itself out. The end result was a downright bargain for a bona-fide middle-of-the-order bat who’s four-year OPS is a robust .890. By comparison, Raul Ibanez, the player who’s replacing Burrell in Philadelphia, received one extra year at an aggregate incremental cost of $14.5 million. Yet, Ibanez is four-and-a-half years older than Burrell, and has a four-year OPS of just .830.
Speaking of deal length, the fact that Burrell’s contract has a tenure of two years is another coup for Tampa Bay. Because Burrell’s a player with classic “old man” skills (i.e. he hits for power and shows patience at the plate but is unathletic with slow-twitch actions), he probably will not age as gracefully as the typical 32-year-old major leaguer. Thus, by signing Burrell to a short-term deal, the Rays have, in effect, taken out an insurance policy against a washed-up Burrell tying up a significant portion of their payroll for years to come.
Burrell is a well-below-replacement-level fielder, who, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN, was removed for a late-inning defensive replacement in 100 of the Phillies 154 games and was assigned a minus-20 defensive rating by the Fielding Bible. This, however, will be of no concern to the Rays, who plan on using Burrell exclusively at DH. In addition, the Rays hope that keeping Burrell off the field in 2009 will prevent a repeat of last season, when he faded down the stretch. Burrell’s second half line of .215/.313/.413 paled in comparison to his first half, when he hit .275/.404/.575.
By adding Burrell, the Rays have obtained a right-handed foil to slugger Carlos Pena. With Burrell protecting him in the lineup (as opposed to Cliff Floyd or Johnny Gomes), Pena should see a steadier diet of fastballs, and is likely enjoy a season which closely resembles his monstrous .282/.411/.627 effort in 2007.

Aside from possibly finding one more reliever to round out their bullpen, the Rays’ offseason shopping spree is complete. And to think, it cost them less than $20 million dollars—a mere $425 million less than the Yankees. Yet—call us crazy —the two teams will likely be separated by mere inches in 2009.

Trade Fair: The Braves Finally Land an Ace

Harris Frommer — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 10:29:32 -0500

It’s almost New Year’s and the Atlanta Braves have been thwarted in numerous attempts to land Jake Peavy from the Padres and are left with a gaping hole in the front of their rotation.

Well, that’s about to change—at least for the next five minutes—as we discuss how Braves GM Frank Wren could turn to former colleague, Dayton Moore, now the Royals’ GM, and finally obtain the ace he has long coveted. The Royals, in turn, would be able to fill multiple holes of their own while freeing up salary. So, without further ado, we present the final mock trade of 2008:

The Braves trade right fielder Jeff Francoeur, shortstop Yunel Escobar, starter Jorge Campillo, and minor league outfielder Gorkys Hernandez to the Royals in exchange for starter Zack Greinke and right fielder Jose Guillen.

Let’s start with the Royals. While some might find it odd that Moore would be willing to part with a 25-year-old ace, it’s important to note that Greinke has so far not been receptive to the team’s attempts to sign him long-term. That said, Moore realizes that with two years remaining until free agency Greinke’s trade value will never be higher.

The Royals would get quite a haul, highlighted by Escobar. Though Mike Aviles performed admirably last season, Escobar would represent a substantial upgrade at shortstop. He has a much stronger arm, softer hands, and infinitely more range.

He’s also no slouch at the plate, and at 26 he should eventually post an OPS in excess of .850 (his career mark is just shy of .800). Finally, Escobar would be an excellent fit for the small market Royals as he’s not arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season.

Though not nearly Greinke’s equal in terms of talent, Campillo would serve as an adequate and cheap replacement in the back of the Royals’ rotation. In his first full major league season in 2008, he showed the uncanny ability to change speeds and work all quadrants of the strike zone.

The result was a very decent 1.24 WHIP and an ERA of 3.91, which was one-third of a run lower than the league average. Despite the fact that Campillo would be moving to the tougher league, he should still serve as a better than replacement level back-of-the-rotation starter.

Hernandez, 21, would be the Royals’ center fielder of the future, perhaps as soon as during the first half of 2010 (it’s worth mentioning that Coco Crisp’s contract calls for an $8 million club option in 2010).

Though he didn’t post eye popping numbers in the pitcher friendly Carolina League last season, Hernandez generates plenty of line drives with his ultra-quick bat and should develop more power as he adds muscle to his 6’0” 175 lbs frame. He’s already a world-class center fielder with blazing speed and a cannon arm.

With outfield prospects Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward also prominent in Atlanta’s future plans, the Braves’ front office has deemed Hernandez expendable in the right deal.

Including Guillen in the deal would mean addition by subtraction for Kansas City. Though his 20 home runs and 97 RBI were easily tops on the club, Guillen wore out his welcome by feuding with skipper Trey Hillman for most of ’08. Moore has let it be known throughout the offseason that any club looking to acquire Greinke would have to take the malcontent Guillen as well.

Trading Guillen would save the Royals $12 million in both 2009 and 2010, thereby giving them plenty of financial latitude to pursue a veteran starter to insert in the No. 2 slot behind Gil Meche. Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, Oliver Perez, and Ben Sheets are all intriguing names that would help soften the blow of losing Greinke.

Since the day he became Kansas City’s GM in 2006, Moore has been infatuated with the idea of obtaining Francoeur. This man-crush has continued despite Francoeur’s downward production spiral. Perhaps it’s because as Atlanta’s Director of Player Personnel, Moore had a birds-eye view of Francoeur’s vast talent and feels that at 25 the young Georgian still has plenty of time to turn around his career.

At any rate, even if Francoeur’s offense doesn’t show marked improvement, he would in many ways still be an upgrade over Guillen. He boasts one of baseball’s best arms in right field, has a much better clubhouse disposition and, as someone who’s arbitration eligible for just the first time, would cost about $10 million less.

For the Braves this trade is all about Greinke. In Jair Jurrjens and new arrival Javier Vazquez, Atlanta has two pitchers capable of throwing 200-plus quality innings. But, unfortunately, neither is an ace capable of matching up against the Phillies’ Cole Hamels or the Mets’ Johan Santana. Greinke, however, is.

Apparently over the psychological issues that derailed his 2006 campaign, Greinke enjoyed a coming out party last season by finishing in the A.L.’s top 10 in ERA, strikeouts, strikeouts per nine IP, and strikeouts-to-walks.

His uncanny command of a mid-90’s heater, knee-buckling curveball and well above-average changeup should all play up in the “lesser” of the two leagues, while his smooth motion and excellent mechanics should help prevent serious injury.

A free agent after the 2010 season, Greinke would give Atlanta a two-year window to compete; however, the fact that he hails from northern Florida could make it easier for the Braves to entice him with a long-term deal.

The Braves had about $40 million to play with this offseason, which would enable them to absorb Guillen’s weighty contract. Despite the 32-year-old’s reputation as a clubhouse cancer, he’d be a noticeable offensive upgrade over Francoeur, whose .653 OPS in 2008 was the worst mark posted by an everyday outfielder.

He’s also one of the few outfielders in the game who boasts an arm that rivals Francoeur’s. Also, don’t discount the influence of Braves manager Bobby Cox, who has proven himself a master psychiatrist capable of extracting the most out of all his players—from chronic underachievers like J.D. Drew to fiery types in the Gary Sheffield mold.

Although the acquisition of Greinke would help level the playing field in the increasingly competitive N.L. East, it wouldn’t be a cure-all for Atlanta. Wren would still have to find a shortstop to replace Escobar (Jack Wilson?), a starter to back up rookie Tommy Hanson at the back-end of the Braves’ rotation and a left fielder.

However, with approximately $15 million left in his pocket, Wren shouldn’t have a problem filling those holes—especially in baseball’s depressed economy.

Seeing Red In Cincinnati

Harris Frommer — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 07:09:39 -0500

Reds fans should be irate if Catcher Ramon Hernandez and Center fielder Willy Taveras end up being the team’s marquee acquisitions this winter. With all due respect to GM Walt Jocketty, who won six division titles, two N.L. Championships and one World Series during a distinguished 13-year reign in St. Louis, Cincinnati has had one of the most disappointing offseasons in all of baseball. After being linked to talents like Pat Burrell, Jeremy Hermida and Jermaine Dye, they’ve had to settle for a beat up, overpriced, soon-to-be 33-year-old catcher in Ramon Hernandez, as well as a punch-and-judy-hitting speedster in Willy Taveras.

Let’s start with the ill-advised Taveras signing. Even if you include his injury-shortened 2007 season, in which he leveraged an aberrational .320 batting average at Coors Light to post career highs in OBP (.367) and SLG (.382), Taveras’ career OPS is a putrid .668 – a full 116 points below the league average of .784 from 2004-08. And this is supposed to be the Reds’ leadoff hitter during the next two seasons?

When examining or evaluating the Reds, it’s vital to realize that the stadium the team plays in, the Great American Ball Park, is one of the smallest in baseball. Therefore, the club doesn’t require a gazelle, like Taveras, to patrol center field and can easily sacrifice some defense by inserting either a power hitter or on-base machine there.

That said, Jocketty had multiple options at his disposal (dependent upon, of course, how much money he was willing to spend). For example, he could have gone big ticket and traded for White Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye then shifted young, power-hitting phenom Jay Bruce into center. Bruce isn’t a burner, but his above average speed and strong arm would make him at least adequate there.

Or Jocketty could have done his shopping in the bargain aisle by inking old friend Jim Edmonds. Though he’s lost several steps in the field and his bat speed isn’t what it once was, Edmonds proved last year with a .256/.369/.568 performance in 250 at bats with the Cubs that he’s far from through. And he’d likely sign for well under half the $8 million he earned in 2008.

If the Reds were to sign Edmonds, it would also have made sense for them to procure the services of Rocco Baldelli. By now, Baldelli’s muscular-related health issues, which prevent him from playing regularly in the field, are well known. However, he would only be expected to serve as a right-handed caddy to Edmonds (who hit just .161 with Chicago against southpaws last season) and would be compensated as such.

A solution to the Reds’ catching “woes” would have been even less complicated. Instead of paying $6 million in 2009 for Hernandez (the Orioles, Hernandez’ former team, are on the hook for $2 million), the club would have been better served by giving the keys to incumbent Ryan Hanigan and signing a seasoned, defense-first free agent, a la Matt Treanor or Chad Moeller, to serve as Hanigan’s backup.

Though Hanigan played just 31 games in the majors last season, he earned rave reviews for his handling of the Reds’ pitching staff and threw out nearly 35 percent of opposing runners attempting to steal. At the plate, he acquitted himself well by posting a .367 OBP. It’s important to note that Hanigan’s on-base skills are extraordinary for a catcher. In 176 games in Double A and Triple A in 2007-08, Hanigan posted a robust OBP of .389.

With Hanigan earning around the big league minimum and his backup less than $1 million (the Tigers, for example, are paying the recently-signed Treanor $750,000 in 2009), the Reds would have saved over $4.5 million had they not traded for Hernandez.

The team then would have had that much more capital at its disposal in its ongoing search for a left fielder and more arms for the bullpen, which earlier this offseason lost the valuable Jeremy Affeldt via free agency to the Giants.

A Seismic Signing: What the Mark Teixeira Deal Means for the Rest of Baseball

Harris Frommer — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:30:53 -0500

When the Yankees announced the signing of free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira Tuesday afternoon they didn’t just fill a massive hole in their lineup; they also sent shockwaves that will impact baseball from Los Angeles to Boston and many points in between.

Let’s take a look at the eight teams affected most by yesterday’s signing:

Anaheim Angels

The Angels find themselves in an interesting predicament—they still have excellent run prevention, but other than injury-riddled Vladimir Guerrero the lineup lacks punch.

Look for GM Tony Reagins to fortify the bullpen by signing free agent closer Brian Fuentes. Manny Ramirez would be a good fit, but Reagins quelled those rumors on Tuesday. Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn are possibilities, but does their all-or-nothing approach really fit with manager Mike Scioscia’s rabbit ball style?

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles were kidding themselves if they thought they’d be able to out-market the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox for Teixeira’s services.

With Adam Jones and Nick Markakis already established at the big league level and Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Matt Wieters almost there, look for Baltimore to kick the rebuilding into high gear with an eye on contending in 2010. That could mean standout second baseman Brian Roberts gets dangled as trade bait before then.

Boston Red Sox

With the sole object of GM Theo Epstein’s affection off the market, look for the Red Sox to make a serious run at Derek Lowe in an effort to deepen their starting rotation. While losing Teixeira to the hated Yankees stings, Boston is still in excellent shape with Kevin Youkilis at first base and former Gold Glove winner Mike Lowell at third.

Los Angeles Dodgers

With the Yankees seemingly out of the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes, the Dodgers are the only team at this point to have an ongoing dialogue with the slugger. Don’t be surprised if GM Ned Colletti smells blood and extends Manny a “modest” two-year proposal with a strict timetable.

Milwaukee Brewers

Because Teixeira's Elias rating is higher than those of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, the Angels now get the Yankees' first round draft pick, pushing the Brewers’ compensation pick from the first round to the second (at least 40 picks below where it would have been had the Yanks not signed Teixeira).

This is no insignificant matter for a small market organization that has used the draft to its advantage in constructing a playoff-caliber team.

New York Mets

They just can’t win. Even after signing closer Francisco Rodriguez to a team-friendly contract and landing fireballing reliever J.J. Putz in a trade, the Metropolitans still can’t escape the Yankees’ shadow. And unless Tom Seaver, Mike Piazza, and Darryl Strawberry suddenly discover the fountain of youth, that will likely always be the case.

Toronto Blue Jays

With a strong starting staff, shutdown bullpen, and solid defense, Toronto would contend in just about any other division. However, in the dog-eat-dog world of the AL East they are no better than the fourth-best team.

Combine that with owner Ted Rogers’ recent death and the ongoing depreciation of the Canadian dollar versus the greenback and you’ve got a possible rebuilding plan in the works.

Washington Nationals

Now that the Teixeira train has stopped in the Bronx, look for GM Jim Bowden to make a run at Dunn, a player he is intimately familiar with from his days in Cincinnati.

Also, it’s not out of the realm of imagination to think that after being thwarted in their serious attempts to woo Tex back home; the Nationals might make a dramatic effort to land Ramirez.

High Heat in the Desert: The AFL Top 15

Harris Frommer — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 01:00:57 -0500

The Arizona Fall League (“AFL”) is the more senior of Major League Baseball’s two developmental offseason leagues. As promised, in today’s column, we’ve provided a rundown of the top 15 prospects from the six-team circuit.

Just as we did in our evaluation of the Hawaii Winter League’s (“HWL”) top 10 prospects, we placed the most weight on the players’ performance this fall; however, we also took into consideration the candidates’ tools and how they projected at the big league level. To be considered for this list a player must still qualify as a rookie (less than 130 total big league at bats or under 50 total innings pitched).

As such, Yankees pitcher Phil Hughes, despite an excellent showing this fall, has not qualified.

Just a note of caution: The AFL, unlike its younger cousin, is an extreme hitters’ league (composite batting average and OPS of .293 and .834, respectively). As a result, only three pitchers made the following list.

1) Tommy Hanson (RHP), 22, Atlanta Braves – Hanson pitched so well in Arizona that he made himself unavailable in trade talks and might have cost the Braves a crack at Jake Peavy.

The lanky right-hander was virtually unhittable, striking out 49 in 28.2 innings while posting an otherworldly WHIP of 0.59. He has excellent command of a mid-90s fastball, a devastating overhand curve, and a developing changeup. Don’t be surprised if he’s in Atlanta’s rotation on Opening Day.

2) Matt Wieters (C ), 22, Baltimore Orioles – Wieters achieved such a high position on this list largely on the strength of an outstanding regular season. The Georgia Tech alum hit .355 with a 1.055 OPS while splitting time between High A and Double A.

Though Wieters proved to be a mere mortal in the AFL, posting an OPS of “only” .845, he still showcased the wonderful defensive tools, including a howitzer arm, that earned him much praise during the regular season.

A switch-hitter with power from both sides of the plate, Wieters could develop into the best hitting catcher since Mike Piazza in his prime.

3) Justin Smoak (1B), 21, Texas Rangers – Strangely enough, Smoak hails from the same hometown as Wieters (Goose Creek, SC) and is also a switch-hitter. He’s also a future superstar.

With patience, power and the ability to hit for a high average from both sides of the plate, Smoak has already elicited plenty of Mark Teixeira comparisons in just several months as a professional. His smooth defensive play is also eerily reminiscent of the All-Star first sacker.

In just 51 fall at bats (he started the AFL season on the taxi squad), Smoak swatted seven extra base hits and earned ten walks.

4) Brian Matusz (LHP), 21, Baltimore Orioles – Don’t let Matusz’ 4.73 ERA this fall fool you. Instead, pay more attention to his secondary numbers–like his 4.5/1 K/BB ratio and 1.26 WHIP. Matusz’ 93 mph heater notwithstanding, his two best pitches are a knee-buckling curveball and straight changeup.

After years of futility, the thought of a Wieters - Matusz battery should give Orioles fans plenty to smile about.

5) Tyler Flowers (C), 22, Chicago White Sox – It should tell you something that despite the presence of Hanson and blue chip outfielder Jason Heyward in the Braves’ system, White Sox GM Ken Williams would not complete the Javier Vazquez trade without the inclusion of Flowers.

Though Arizona’s thin air was at least partially responsible for Flowers’ outrageous .387/.460/.973 line, the fact remains he’s an outstanding prospect. At 6’4” and 245 pounds, Flowers is an intimidating presence both at the plate and behind it. His offense is ahead of his defense at this point, but he has enough raw skills to mature into a sound overall receiver with an arm that could stop any running game.

6) Logan Morrison (1B), 21, Florida Marlins – Morrison is very similar to the Reds’ Yonder Alonso, who was our highest ranked prospect in the HWL. He has a sweet, left-handed swing that should generate at least 20-home run power as he matures. He’s adept at hitting to all fields and isn’t afraid to take a walk.

7) Andrew Lambo (OF-1B), 20, Los Angeles Dodgers – Though Lambo’s numbers weren’t as gaudy as most of the other hitters featured here, it’s important to remember that 2008 was only his first full professional season. Lambo fell to the third round of the 2007 draft due to questions about his emotional makeup and maturity.

So far as a pro he’s dismissed those concerns. He has a pretty left-handed stroke that can’t be taught and should hit for more power as he fills out his 6’3” frame. A natural first baseman, he’s rapidly becoming an adequate left fielder. Still, it’s his bat that will carry him to the big leagues.

8) Jason Donald (SS-3B), 24, Philadelphia Phillies – After a disappointing college career at Arizona, Donald has done nothing but hit as a professional. He posted a .307/.391/.497 line in Double-A this year than exploded in Arizona to the tune of .407/.476/.747.

Because Donald lacks the range of a true shortstop, he’ll likely shift over to second or third when he reaches Philadelphia. And with Chase Utley likely to miss the beginning of 2009 after hip surgery, Donald has emerged as the likely fill-in candidate.

9) Brett Wallace (3B-1B), 22, St. Louis Cardinals – Wallace’s girth has been the subject of much criticism from scouts, but no one doubts his ability to hit. He followed a .337/.427/.530 showing between Low A and Double-A with a .309/.381/.585 performance in the AFL.

If Wallace can handle third base, he could be a fixture in the middle of Tony La Russa’s lineup for years to come. If not, expect him to be dangled as trade bait.

10) Julio Borbon (OF), 22, Texas Rangers – One of the most unheralded prospects in all of baseball, Borbon is a dead ringer for Johnny Damon at the same age. He has the speed to swipe 40 bases a year, the power to hit at least 10-15 dingers annually and enough of an eye to lead off. He’s also an accomplished center fielder, despite a below average arm.

11) Austin Jackson (OF), 21, New York Yankees – It will be interesting to see how Jackson develops – will his merely average speed “play up” and allow him to mature into a bona fide big league center fielder or will that lack of speed combined with questionable power relegate him to fourth-outfielder status?

Regardless, Jackson is an outstanding athlete (he was a prized Georgia Tech basketball recruit) who has made adjustments at every level and emerged as the Yankees best position prospect since Derek Jeter.

12) Chris Valaika (SS-2B), 23, Cincinnati Reds – Valaika isn’t an exceptional athlete but has hit everywhere he’s played. This includes the AFL, where he hit .311 in 119 at bats. With the Reds’ shortstop situation as jumbled as it is, Valaika could claim the job with a strong spring training.

13) Lou Marson (C), 22, Philadelphia Phillies – Though Marson was on the taxi squad this fall, he still showed enough in just 34 at-bats to warrant a spot on this list. Marson has a short stroke which produces line drives to all fields, as well as a keen eye which has resulted in high OBPs throughout his career. Defensively, Marson is agile and has soft hands to go along with a cannon arm.

14) J.P. Arencibia (C), 22 Toronto Blue Jays – Arencibia is the Blue Jays’ catcher of the future (perhaps as soon as 2009) and his performance in Arizona did nothing to refute this. He has excellent power for a catcher, as well as the ability to hit for a high average. He is, however, averse to taking a walk.

On defense, Arencibia receives balls well and has a strong arm. The fact that he’s bi-lingual (English and Spanish) also doesn’t hurt.

15) Aaron Poreda (LHP), 22, Chicago White Sox – Like Matusz, don’t pay attention to Poreda’s AFL numbers. Instead, pay attention to his stuff and size. The 6’6” 240-pound giant throws a fastball, which tops out at 98 mph, and an improving slider. Because he doesn’t throw anything soft, Poreda’s future may be as a power reliever in the back of a major-league bullpen.

Sun, Sand, Surf....and Baseball: The HWL Top 10 Prospects

Harris Frommer — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 10:45:51 -0500

Major League Baseball sponsors two offseason leagues dedicated exclusively to prospect development, the Hawaii Winter League (HWL) and the Arizona Fall League (AFL). The former features youngsters who generally have not played above A Ball, while the latter is for more advanced prospects who have reached at least Double A. We’ll use today’s column to take a look at the HWL’s ten best prospects and will examine the AFL’s top youngsters later in the week.

Just a quick note of caution—although the players’ statistical performance this past autumn is the most important criterion we’ve used to determine whether they’re worthy of mention, it’s not our only measuring stick. We’ve also taken into consideration a candidate’s tools and to what extent they’ll enable him to eventually make a meaningful contribution at the big league level. Despite the fact that the HWL is an extreme pitcher’s league (the composite batting average and OPS were just .248 and .701, respectively), only three pitchers made the list. Also, the 2008 draft class was well represented, with five of the ten players featured in this column having been selected this past June.

1) Yonder Alonso (1B), 21, Cincinnati Reds– Alonso, who was the seventh overall pick in June, was by far the most polished hitter in Hawaii. He not only exhibited a quick bat and the ability to go the other way, but his pitch recognition was outstanding, as evidenced by his BB/K ratio of 20/23. One area that still needs work, however, is his performance against lefties. He hit just .222 against them with 12 strikeouts in 36 at bats.

2) Jason Castro (C), 21, Houston Astros– Another first-round pick from June, Castro used the HWL to make a case for himself as the most athletic backstop in the minors. The former Stanford Cardinal showcased above average agility (despite a 6’3” frame), soft hands and a strong, accurate arm. Castro is no slouch at the plate either. He has excellent balance and generates plenty of power with a sweet, left-handed stroke.

3) Brett Hunter (RHP), 21, Oakland A’s– Don’t let the 5.59 ERA fool you. In just 9.2 innings out of the bullpen, the Pepperdine alum was lights out, striking out an astounding 18 batters while yielding just four hits. His fastball sat at 95-97 mph and occasionally hit triple digits, and his curveball was just as filthy. Hunter was wild at times, as he tried to shake off the rust that was the result of him sitting out most of the spring with an elbow injury. The A’s haven’t announced whether he’ll start or relieve as a pro. If it’s the latter, he could evolve into a Brad Lidge-style shutdown closer.

4) Buster Posey (C), 21, San Francisco Giants– If this list was based purely on offense, Posey might be sitting at the top, as his short, crisp stroke produced line drive after line drive en route to a .338 average. Posey’s defense was another story, however. He rarely showed the form which enabled him to win the Golden Spikes award while at Florida State and led the HWL in passed balls. Still, the Giants’ love his athleticism and strong arm and believe that in due time they’ll be able to iron out his rough edges.

5) Kyle Drabek (RHP), 20, Philadelphia Phillies– The son of 1990 N.L. Cy Young winner, Doug Drabek, rebounded nicely after missing most of the 2008 regular season recovering from Tommy John Surgery. His mid 90’s fastball and hammer curve enabled him to whiff 19 hitters in 20.2 innings against just four walks. He’s barely six feet tall so it’ll be interesting to see how his arm holds up as he moves through the minors.

6) Jeremy Bleich (LHP), 21, New York Yankees– The last of the 2008 draftees on this list, Bleich is a four-pitch control specialist whose fastball rarely breaks 90-91 mph. Still, the cerebral Stanford alum commands all four quadrants of the plate like a ten-year veteran and is able to generate his fair share of swings and misses. Like Hunter, Bleich missed a substantial portion of the college season because of arm problems and signed too late to log any meaningful innings during the regular season. If Bleich’s health issues are behind him, expect a rapid progression through the Yankees’ system.

7) Andrew Brackman (RHP), 22, New York Yankees– This 6’10” giant made his professional debut in Hawaii after recovering from Tommy John Surgery performed shortly after he was drafted in 2007. The velocity on Brackman’s fastball received rave reviews (he consistently worked in the mid-90), but he needs to develop better command of it. He also needs to work on the release point on his overhand curve. After posting a WHIP of 1.65 and walking 25 in 34 innings, it’s evident that Brackman will need much more minor league seasoning than the polished Bleich.

8) Ryan Kalish (OF), 20, Boston Red Sox– Kalish was still feeling the effects of the broken hamate bone he suffered in 2007, which robbed him of his power throughout all of 2008. Still, as his .446 OBP attests, he displayed outstanding pitch recognition for such a young player and was a spark plug on the bases with 12 steals in 13 attempts. An excellent athlete, Kalish can play anywhere in the outfield and has a strong, accurate arm.

9) Todd Frazier (OF-3B), 22, Cincinnati Reds– All Frazier has done since being drafted in 2007 is hit, and he continued to do that in Hawaii, where he posted a .922 OPS with 16 extra base hits in just 27 games. The Reds, however, are still undecided on his position. He was drafted out of Rutgers as a shortstop, but lacks the range to play there. He’s played some third base, but lacks the footwork to stay at the hot corner. Our guess is that he’ll wind up in left field once he gets to the majors. He has more than enough arm strength and speed for the position.

10) Michael Taylor (OF), 22, Philadelphia Phillies– Taylor’s .247/.347/.412 performance in Hawaii was disappointing compared to his regular season line of .346/.412/.557; however, the former Stanford Cardinal (sensing a pattern here?) remains a legitimate prospect. At 6’6” 250 pounds, Taylor is a mountain of a man whose overall game elicits memories of Hall of Famer Dave Winfield. He can hit the ball a country mile, run like a deer and play a vintage right field. If he makes the same progress in 2009 like he made last season he could be at Citizens Bank Park sometime during the second half.

Signing Rafael Furcal Would Have Been Wrong Move for Frank Wren

Harris Frommer — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 01:06:20 -0500

Rafael Furcal’s 11th-hour decision to spurn the Atlanta Braves in favor of the Los Angeles Dodgers might have been the best thing to happen to Braves GM Frank Wren this offseason.

A year after wasting $8 million on a homecoming for washed up Tom Glavine, Wren was ready to award Furcal with a three-year/$30 million contract to return to Atlanta.

Make no mistake, Furcal was, at one time, a dynamic player, arguably the best all-round shortstop in the National League. From 2003-'06 he slugged over .430 and averaged nearly 35 steals a season while playing highlight-reel defense.

However, he turns 32 next year and is coming off microdiscectomy surgery on his lower back. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but Furcal wasn’t the same player after returning to the Dodgers' lineup for the playoffs.

In eight postseason games, he hit just .258 and made a whopping four errors.

In addition to the possibility that they would have invested a fortune in damaged goods, there’s one other major factor that would have made this an ill-fated move for the Braves—the presence of incumbent shortstop Yunel Escobar.

Escobar, just 26, has emerged as an above-average defensive shortstop with plenty of upside on offense. Moreover, he’s cheap. He’ll earn near the league minimum in 2009 and isn’t arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season.

There are several schools of thought on why the Braves were willing to sign Furcal despite Escobar being firmly entrenched at shortstop. First, the club probably has designs on re-entering the Jake Peavy sweepstakes and would have dangled Escobar as the primary trading chip.

While we would certainly never argue against any team acquiring a 27-year-old ace, especially one who already has a CY Young Award in his trophy case and four years of cost certainty by virtue of a long-term deal, we do have a problem with the idea of Furcal serving as Escobar’s replacement.

As we indicated earlier, what proof would the Braves have had that the Furcal they signed is the same as the 2003 vintage? Assuming he isn’t (and that’s a logical assumption to make given the fact he’s six years older and fresh off of major back surgery), the $9.5 million differential between his and Escobar’s 2009 contract EXCEEDS the $9 million Peavy is owed next season.

And we haven’t even mentioned the $20 million the team would have owed Furcal in 2010-'11.

If Atlanta really is that intent on using Escobar as trade bait for Peavy, the club could easily find another, more suitable substitute at shortstop. For example, Wren could swing a trade with Pittsburgh for Jack Wilson, a defensive specialist whose contract guarantees him just one more year at $7.25 million.

If Wilson proves to be a bust, he’s off the Braves’ books a year from now. If he plays well, the Braves obtained a potential Gold Glove winner at less than 75 percent of what Furcal would have cost.

Either way, Wren & Co. incur a fraction of the risk versus what they would have had the Furcal deal come to fruition.

The second school of thought as to why Atlanta entertained thoughts of bringing back Furcal was presented eloquently in this column by Dave O’Brien. As O’Brien stated, Atlanta would have shifted Furcal to second base and moved Kelly Johnson to left field with the intention of creating a high-flying, acrobatic double play combination.

This was a ludicrous idea. Not only has Furcal played exactly one game at second in the past six years, but Johnson is a well above average fielder (he gets to a half-ball more per game than the average N.L. second baseman) whose high octane bat puts him within the elite tier of the league’s second baseman. As a left fielder, Johnson would be merely replacement level.

It’s obvious that Frank Wren once again chose sentiment over common sense with his ill-advised strategy to sign Rafael Furcal. Fortunately for the Braves, however, Furcal’s last minute machinations left his old team standing alone at the altar. Christmas has indeed come early to Atlanta.

Trigger Happy Florida Marlins and Seattle Mariners Should Swap Young Studs

Harris Frommer — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 05:24:36 -0500

The Florida Marlins and Seattle Mariners have been two of the busiest teams this offseason and look to remain active for the remainder of the winter. The Marlins, as always, are in shedding mode. With 16 players eligible for arbitration following the 2008 season, club president David Samson ordered GM Michael Hill to slice and dice wherever and whenever possible.

Thus far, Florida has traded away first baseman Mike Jacobs, outfielder Josh Willingham, starter Scott Olsen, and reliever Kevin Gregg.

The Mariners, fresh off a hugely disappointing 61-101 season and with new GM Jack Zduriencik in tow, are also looking to wheel and deal. Zduriencik just last week completed a three-team/12 player mega-deal with the Indians and Mets at the Winter Meetings and has indicated he’s got much more work ahead of him.

Interestingly enough, in addition to being trigger-happy, both the Marlins and Mariners each have one glaring weakness—the Marlins covet an inexpensive catcher and the Mariners are in desperate need of a corner outfielder with pop. As a result, we propose the following trade:

The Marlins trade outfielder Jeremy Hermida to the Mariners in exchange for catcher Jeff Clement.

This trade makes sense on so many levels. Let’s start with how it impacts the Marlins.

Despite John Baker’s impressive big league debut (.299/.392/.447), the Marlins still view the 27-year-old as a backup. In Clement, Florida would be obtaining a young (25) catcher whose left-handed power bat would serve as an effective foil to right-handed Dan Uggla, Cameron Maybin, Hanley Ramirez and Jorge Cantu (provided the latter isn’t dealt in the Marlins’ ongoing purge).

Though Clement’s .227/.295/.360 performance in 203 at bats with Seattle last season shows that the 2005 first rounder is far from a finished product, his 38 home runs and .853 OPS in 873 Triple A at bats are indicative of his vast offensive potential.

On defense, Clement will never be mistaken for Johnny Bench; however, he has enough of an arm to stop a running game and has improved significantly at blocking balls in the dirt.

Finally, Clement is cheap. He won’t be arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season, which means he’ll fit nicely into Florida’s miniscule budget.

Despite Hermida’s mouth watering potential, the Marlins won’t miss him. The team’s 2002 first rounder looked like he was poised for a breakout season following a .296/.369/.501 campaign in 2007, but he missed the first week of April and never really got back on track.

By September he had lost his starting job, and with Maybin ready for prime time Hermida’s prospects for 2009 appear dim. Throw in the fact that Hermida is arbitration eligible and therefore due for a significant raise, and it’s not hard to see why the Marlins have placed the former phenom on the trading block.

Given Zduriencik’s extensive scouting and player evaluation background, it’s likely that a player with Hermida’s natural ability would be welcomed with open arms in Seattle. Still just 24, Hermida flashed five-tool potential throughout his minor league career and was at times compared to talents like Larry Walker and Paul O’Neill.

Perhaps all he needs, like O’Neill 15 years ago, is a change of scenery and an organization that believes in him. With Raul Ibanez having moved on to greener pastures in Philadelphia, Hermida’s lefty bat and athleticism would fit in well with Ichiro and newly-acquired Franklin Gutierrez in the Mariners’ revamped outfield.

Make no mistake, it wouldn’t be easy for Seattle to part with Clement. In fact, as recently as a year ago he was seen as the organization’s catcher of the future.

However, the Mariners’ catching depth should soften the blow. Not only does Kenji Johjima still have three years and $24 million left on his contract, but Adam Moore enjoyed a banner 2008 and already boasts far better defensive skills and the ability to hit for a higher average than Clement.

The organization also has Rob Johnson, 24, who has nothing left to prove in the minors after hitting .305 at Triple A in 2008.

Don't Do It, Theo

Harris Frommer — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 02:53:39 -0500

Temptation can come in many forms. To the married man, it’s the stunning blonde sitting alone in the corner of the bar. To a car thief, it’s the late model BMW idling unattended in front of a convenience store. To the female shopaholic, it’s that Gucci handbag on sale at half price. To Theo Epstein, GM of the Boston Red Sox, it’s the slugging first baseman available this Christmas for a cool $150 million.

Mark Teixeira is clearly the marquee position player up for grabs in this winter’s free agent bazaar. In fact, he’s the best hitter available since the winter of 2000-01, when Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez were offering their services to the highest bidder.

A switch-hitter with both power and patience, Teixeira’s line of .290/.378/.541 since he broke into the major leagues in 2003 is the best by a first baseman not named Albert Pujols. Oh, he’s also young (only 28 on Opening Day), an excellent fielder (two Gold Gloves) and durable (he’s averaged over 150 games per season).

So, with Teixeira’s sparkling resume and the mounds of cash Boston seemingly has to spend this winter, is there any reason why Epstein should not make the two-time Silver Slugger his primary offseason objective?

Yes, there’s actually one huge reason -- Teixeira can’t pitch.

Despite Boston’s burgeoning dynasty, which includes two world championships and five postseason appearances since 2003, the organization’s post-2010 pitching outlook outside of emerging ace Jon Lester isn’t as bright as one might think. Workhorse Josh Beckett, a free agent after 2010, could follow the likes of Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and others, by shunning megabuck overtures and return to his native Texas; Daisuke Matsuzaka, his 18-3 record last season notwithstanding, consistently racks up high pitch counts due to poor command and failed to make it into the sixth inning in almost half his starts; Tim Wakefield is 42; Clay Buchholz has regressed significantly and is now being dangled as trade bait; and recent free agent signee Junichi Tazawa has never thrown a pitch in North America.

Put simply, the acquisition of a proven, frontline starter would bolster the Red Sox’ rotation at a crucial time and all but ensure the team’s ability to contend well into the next decade.

Fortunately, ‘tis the season for Epstein & Co. In C.C. Sabathia, Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett, Boston has three studs to choose from this winter. Sabathia is obviously the main attraction. As his work down the stretch with the Brewers exhibited, he’s a money pitcher, a guy who’s capable of putting a team on his back and changing the entire dynamic of a pennant race all by himself.

Though it’s no secret that the big lefty desires to pitch close to his California home, the Red Sox could throw a wrench into his plans if they extend an offer which approaches the 6-year/$140 million proposal already put out by the Yankees. If nothing else, a decision by Boston to enter the Sabathia sweepstakes would drive up the price for the Bronx Bombers and possibly prevent them from making other major acquisitions this winter.

Lowe is intriguing for several reasons. First, he’s already had success pitching in the Beantown pressure cooker, as evidenced by his excellent 52-27 record as a starter from 2002-04 and the stingy 3.09 ERA he posted in 61 postseason innings with the Red Sox. Second, he’s durable. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Lowe has never missed a turn and averaged nearly 211 innings a season.

Burnett has always been something of an enigma – he has first-rate stuff but only appears to stay healthy in the walk year of his contract. Still, given his electric arm and the success he’s enjoyed against the arch-rival Yankees (2.43 ERA in almost 80 career innings), he’d provide manager Terry Francona with the perfect right-handed foil to Lester.

The Red Sox likely don’t have enough money to sign both Teixeira and a pitcher from the Sabathia/Lowe/Burnett triumvirate; however, they’d have far less difficulty making do without Teixeira’s lumber. In Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Jason Bay and J.D. Drew, Boston has the strongest lineup in the A.L. East. And let’s not forget that Ortiz will have an entire winter to rest and rehabilitate the ailing wrist which caused him to suffer through a disappointing 2008. Nor should we neglect to mention third baseman Mike Lowell, who, after undergoing hip surgery this offseason, could very well return to his 120 RBI form from 2007.

There’s yet another player we feel compelled to bring up. That’s Boston’s first baseman of the future, Lars Anderson. Anderson, 21, breezed through High A and Double A in 2008 at a .317/.417/.517 clip and displayed a good eye as well as the ability to hit with power to all fields. While no prospect is ever a sure thing (see Burroughs, Sean), Anderson is as close as it gets.

The left-handed slugger should be ready for prime time no later than 2010 and would offer the club at least replacement level production at the big league minimum of $400,000.

This is in contrast to Teixeira, who would offer mouth watering numbers but at an eye popping cost.

So, with the Red Sox offense already a juggernaut and more help on the way, Teixeira would represent an unnecessary luxury whose exorbitant cost could prohibit the organization from addressing other areas of need. And in the bare knuckles world of the A.L. East such a serious miscalculation could have dire consequences, including the end of a golden era in Boston.

Don’t do it, Theo.