Bleacher Report - Articles by Farid Rushdi

Nationals Give Free Agent Market Cold Shoulder, Put Holiday on Ice

Farid Rushdi — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:58:40 -0500

The Washington Nationals are teetering on a precipice so dangerous that their very existence hangs in the balance.

Well, I’m exaggerating of course, but only a little bit.

Since their first year in Washington when an undermanned squad flirted with the playoffs before fading in August, the Nationals have the worst record in all of baseball, with their back-to-back 100-loss seasons capping a four-year backslide into the abyss of embarrassment.

They opened a beautiful new ballpark, but they cannot fill it because no one wants to watch a persistent loser. They have preached patience as “The Plan” grows a fertile farm system from which young studs are supposed to take the place of the flotsam and jetsam of the baseball world.

Only they haven’t. Currently, just two starters—Ryan Zimmerman and John Lannan—can trace their baseball lineage to the Nationals minor league system.

Since 2006, the Nationals’ payroll has averaged $52 million, 26th in a 30-team league. The Lerner family—owners of the franchise—and team president Stan Kasten have preached patience as the team has eschewed the free agent market, promising those funds would be poured into the minors to fertilize the production of those badly needed young stars.

Five years and two starters. Not a particularly great return on their investment.

But now comes the Nationals’ day of reckoning. They are the worst baseball team on the planet with one of the very lowest payrolls in existence. The minor leagues have some prospects that might make a difference, but they are for the most part two or three years away.

The fly-by-night fans left long ago. The weekend baseball fan left not so long after. What remains is a small but proud band of lifelong fans capable of figuring batting averages and earned-run averages in our head.

We’ll never leave.

Those other fans, they can be brought back into the fold, but it will take a total team turnaround in 2010 for that to happen. A third straight nightmare-of-a-season will blow the little remaining goodwill the team has left.

The only option the Nationals have to remain out of the “small-market” club is to infuse this moribund team with some instant major league talent. I’d say $20-24 million ought to do it.

And what a coincidence, because that’s the exact amount of payroll the Nationals swept off their books when they traded or didn’t resign Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard, Nick Johnson, and Austin Kearns. If the Nationals don’t offer arbitration to injured pitcher Scott Olsen—and I don’t think they will—they could have a nest egg in the upper $20 million range available to spend.

In other words, the Nationals could blow $25 or so million on free agents and not increase their fourth-lowest payroll by even a penny.

So I’ve been waiting for some hint as to the team’s intentions during the offseason. I mean, they could sign Matt Holiday and John Garland and not increase the payroll. Those two would add 14 wins and 115 RBI which would translate into—by my estimation—another 15 to 20 wins in 2010.

That would make the Nationals a near .500 club with a $60 million payroll. Do that and I can wait for those little acorns in the minors to turn into mighty oaks.

I didn’t have too long to wait to see which way the Nationals’ wind was blowing this offseason because it’s bringing a terrible stench with it.

In an article on the team’s Web site Wednesday morning, General Manager Mike Rizzo made it very clear that the Nationals have no intention of spending any significant money in the free agent market.

"We don't think that the free-agent class leads us to [pay big money]," Rizzo said. "I believe the things we need or want the most are out there, and we are going to address it. I don't see us going after that super free agent like Matt Holliday or Jon Garland. I don't see us playing on that level. We don't think it's a fit for us."

Really? Do you think it’s possible that the Nationals were going to spend $15 million on Stephen Strasburg last summer or spend $15 million on free agents this winter, but not both? Is that what they are thinking?

If the Nationals didn’t clear all those contracts off their books, I wouldn’t be so adamant about making a free agent splash this winter. But they are in a position to improve the team dramatically without increasing the payroll.

How often does that happen?

I have always been of the belief that the Lerners were not cheap, that they were waiting for the right moment to spend their money on improving the team. I have always been of the belief that building a team from within made a great deal of sense.

But the Nationals have not always chosen well in the amateur draft. Pitchers like Josh Smoker and Colton Willems were supposed to have been in Washington by now, and yet neither has played any higher than Class-A.

I am afraid the Nationals are perfectly content with continuing to lose 100 games a year until they—like the Tampa Bay Rays—have enough No. 1 draft picks on the roster to make the playoffs.

True, the Rays reached the World Series two seasons ago, but it took them a decade full of last place finishes to do it.

Time is short. If the Nationals can’t turn it around in 2010 and if the farm system doesn’t start burping out all-stars quickly, the team is going to become the Mid-Atlantic version of the Florida Marlins, but without the winning records.

Mike Rizzo punched me in the gut when he announced that the Nationals weren’t interested in bettering themselves. Oh sure, they are going to try to make some trades, but they are going to have to give up talent to get it, and that isn’t the way to quickly improve the team.

I’ll withhold my final judgment until January, but things aren’t looking very good at the moment.

Memo to Mike Rizzo: Spend baby, spend.

Comparing the 2005 and 2009 Washington Nationals: Who Was Really Better?

Farid Rushdi — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 20:19:27 -0500

As the Nationals prepare to begin their sixth season in Washington, management and ownership is doing all they can to get better. This team, after all, has been the worst in all of baseball over the last two seasons, losing 205 games and looking very bad while doing it.

It’s not as though they don’t try to get better. Clearly, the team continues to turn over their roster in an attempt to find 25 players capable of playing sound, fundamental baseball.

When they arrived in 2005, the Nationals surprised the baseball world by winning 81 games and were in first place in the National League East as late as July 24, and didn’t fall out of second place until the middle of August.

Since then, the team has been torn apart, ripped up and blown to pieces. The result? One of the worst two-year periods in the history of baseball.

Let’s go back and take a look at that 81-81 2005 team and see how they compare—position by position—to 2009’s version:

First Base:

2005: Nick Johnson .289-15-74

2009: Adam Dunn .268-38-105

Clearly, Adam Dunn is the far superior offensive player while Johnson was one of the best defensive first baseman in the league.

However, with all due respect to Johnson’s glove, National League teams don’t win championships with defensive-minded first baseman. The last Senior-Circuit team to win the World Series with a non-slugging first baseman was the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks with Mark Grace (.298-15-78).

No question, the Nationals were much better at first in 2009

Second Base:

2005: Jose Vidro .275-7-32

2009: Alberto Gonzalez .265-1-33

Vidro’s multiple knee surgeries, and subsequent loss of range, coupled with questionable defense, makes this comparison much closer than you would think. Vidro had a .985 fielding percent compared to Gonazalez’ .995, and his range factor was 4.4, far worse than Gonzalez’ 5.13.

I just don’t think those 10 extra points on his batting average and six more homers makes up for his slow-motion defense.

I see this one as a draw

Shortstop

2005: Cristian Guzman .219-4-31

2009: Cristian Guzman .284-6-52

In 2005, Guzman suffered through one of the worst hitting slumps I have ever seen. His batting average didn’t stay above .200 for good until September 8, and he had to hit .338 for the remainder of the season to get the average “up” to .219. The 2010 Guzman didn’t see his average go below .300 until September 1.

Guzman’s fielding percent dropped a bit in 2009, but all other factors remained constant.

The 2009 Guzman wins by a wide margin.

Third Base

2005: Vinny Castilla .253-12-66

2009: Ryan Zimmerman .292-33-106

Castilla hit just enough and fielded well enough to keep his job until Ryan Zimmerman began to play every day towards the end of September. The Vinny Castilla of old was now old, and it showed late in the season. Zimmerman, on the other hand, won both the Silver slugger and the Gold Glove in 2009.

Zimmerman over Castilla, and it’s not even close to being close.

Left Field

2005: Ryan Church .287-9-42

Preston Wilson .261-10-43

2009: Josh Willingham .260-24-61

Church played regularly until he cracked his back and neck on the PNC Park fence in a dramatic win against the Pirates. Wilson, acquired in a mid-season trade with the Rockies, did was he was expected to do.

Church was capable but not great, and Wilson was terrible in the outfield, thanks in part to a very bad set of wheels. Josh Willingham’s numbers are skewed because he didn’t play every day until late May.

Willingham doesn’t play outstanding defense but he’s certainly good enough. Willingham wins.

Center Field

2005: Brad Wilkerson .248-11-57

2009: Nyjer Morgan .351-1-12, 24 steals

Wilkerson was presumed to be the team’s slugger after hitting 32 homers the year before. But he struck out too much, didn’t hit nearly enough homers and played good defense. Morgan was the team’s catalyst, playing superb defense and raced around the bases, begging the opposition to stop him. They never did.

No contest: It’s Morgan

Right Field

2005: Jose Guillen .283-24-76

2009: Elijah Dukes .250-8-58

Clearly, Guillen had the better year. Both players were outstanding defenders, and though Dukes is the more talented player, Guillen flat outplayed him.

Funny how both of them were clubhouse problems.

Guillen wins this one.

Catcher:

2005: Brian Schneider .268-10-44

2009: Jesus Flores .301-4-15

Granted, Flores didn’t play the entire season, but we’ve seen enough of him to make a fair comparison with Schneider. Flores has now played 198 games and has a career batting record of .260-16-99. Though he’s not quite as good a defender as Schneider was then, he will in the end be far better.

Flores wins.

Starting Pitchers

2005: Livan Hernandez 15-10, 3,98

2009: John Lannan 9-13, 3.88

I’m taking Lannan in this comparison, which may make you scratch your head just a bit. But remember, Livan pitched at RFK Stadium, a park so large that it shaved three-quarters of a run off of a pitcher’s ERA. Lannan pitched at Nationals Park and had the better ERA.

This was a tough choice, but Lannan wins by a tad.

2005: Esteban Loiaza 12-10, 3.77

2009: Craig Stammen 4-7, 5.11

No contest here. Loiaza had a comeback that most players only dream of, and Stammen struggled in his first major league season.

Loiaza takes it.

2005: John Patterson 9-7, 3.13

2009: Jordan Zimmermann 3-5, 4.63

2005 was Patterson’s one great year before injuries eventually forced him out of baseball. Sadly, Zimmermann was just beginning to show what he could do at the major league level when he was lost to rotator cuff surgery.

Zimmermann is the better talent but Patterson had the better year. Patterson wins

2005: Tony Armas 7-7, 4.97

2009: J.D. Martin 5-4, 4.44

Armas was one of those pitchers with a great deal of talent but nothing to show for it. Martin was one of former GM Jim Bowden’s reclamation projects that actually worked.

Martin, selected in the first round of the draft by the Cleveland Indians as the compensation pick for the loss of Manny Ramirez, blew out his arm in the minors and was signed by Washington.

He got better as the year progressed and should be in the rotation in 2010.

Martin over Armas.

2005: Ryan Drese 3-6, 4.98

2009: Ross Detwiler 1-6, 5.00

Drese was claimed off of waivers from the Angels and had one good start before things went south. Detwiler was horrid early in the season but responded well to his demotion. He returned in September and pitched brilliantly, going 1-1 with a 1.90 ERA and a .220 batting-average against.

Detwiler beats Drese because of that great September.

Closer:

2005: Chad Cordero 2-4, 1.82, 47 saves

2009: Mike MacDougal 1-1, 3.60, 20 saves

“The Chief” wins walking away. Though he always “almost” blew every save, he never did. He was the one sure thing on that 2005 team. MacDougal was certainly good enough, but will serve the Nationals better as the setup man when Drew Storen takes his place sometime next year.

In the final tally, the 2009 team won eight positions while the 2005 team won just five. There was one draw. That seems strange, I know, because that 2005 team was 22 games better.

From an individual point of view, the 2009 Nationals are more talented, but as a team, when you take into account the depth of both teams, the 2005 Nationals were far better.

Take a look at the ERA’s of the 2005 Nationals’ bullpen:

Chad Cordero: 1.82

Hector Carrasco: 2.04

Luis Ayala: 2.66

Jason Bergman: 2.75

Gary Majewski: 2.93

Joey Eischen: 3.22

Mike Stanton: 3.58

Jon Rauch: 3.60

The bench was just as deep, featuring (at one time or another), Jamey Carroll, Deivi Cruz, Junior Spivey, Gary Bennett, Carlos Baerga, Terrmel Sledge, Jeffrey Hammonds, Rick Short, Endy Chavez and Brendan Harris.

Over the last five seasons, the Nationals have gotten deeper at the top but thinner down below. Their regular players are far better but the role players—the relievers and the bench—aren’t nearly as talented.

Team General Manager Mike Rizzo will be heading into next week’s Winter Meetings trying to find some more “big names” to bring to Washington. And that’s fine; he should be doing that.

But he should also be trying to duplicate Jim Bowden’s magic and find a bunch of hard working, small-paycheck kind-of-guys who can almost will the team to win, doing whatever it takes, and whenever it’s needed, to make it happen.

Let’s start a “Bring back Joe Beimel” campaign right now!

How I Would Improve the Washington Nationals As Their General Manager

Farid Rushdi — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:30:05 -0500

The strangest thing just happened to me.

A few minutes ago, I received a call from Nationals’ team President Stan Kasten. He said that Mike Rizzo was fired by the Lerner family, after being found walking aimlessly along the Beltway, wearing nothing but a Mets’ cap.

Kasten told me Rizzo could have survived the “naked” part, but wearing the oppositions’ colors was a deal breaker.

They want me to take over on a temporary basis until Jim Bowden’s contract runs out with Sirius XM. I can make any deals I want until then—probably till the middle of January—and I can add no more than $10 million to last year’s $60-million payroll.

In an email, he gave me the private phone numbers of baseball’s other 29 general managers, as well as the names and numbers of all the current free-agents.

Kasten then wished me luck and hung up the phone. I’m on my own.

At one time or another, I’m sure all of us have fancied ourselves as the general manager of the Nationals, and have consummated a thousand trades in our head, each a steal for the home team.

Kasten asked me to report my trades and signings to YOU, a member of the board of directors in an email. You will then make your report to the Lerner family in the “comments” section below.

The below email was written to you, “Mr. Big,” at the end of December, after all the roster moves were completed.

From: Farid Rushdi, Acting General Manger
To: Mr. Big, Vice-Chairman, Board-of-Directors, Washington Nationals

Dear Mr. Big,

Since your ownership group purchased the Nationals more than three years ago, the concept of building a championship organization from within has been paramount in the process. But we have finally reached the point where we have enough talented young players—both at the minor league and major league level—that we can now begin the process of singing free agent players to fill the gaps in our roster.

Last season, our payroll was approximately $60 million. Through the trades of Nick Johnson and Ronnie Belliard, and the free agency of Austin Kearns and Dmitri Young, we have removed almost $23 million from our books. Additionally, the Nationals will decline arbitration on Scott Olsen, freeing an additional $2.8 million.

That means the Nationals can sign free agents to contracts totaling almost $26 million and not increase the payroll for 2010 by even a dollar.

Below are a list of the trades and free agent signings we have completed thus far. I believe these changes have created a team capable of making the playoffs in 2010:

1. The Washington Nationals have agreed to terms with first baseman Adam Dunn on a four year extension that will keep him a National through the 2014 season. The contract is worth $50 million ($12.5 million per season). There is a two year mutual option for 2015 and 2016.

Dunn will be 33 at the end of the contract and will be in the prime of his career. Chris Marrero, the team’s first-baseman-of-the-future, is no better defensively than Dunn and is not as powerful. I’d rather play Dunn and trade Marrero.

2. Second baseman Orlando Hudson has been signed to a two year, $10 million contract. Hudson, at 31, is in the prime of his career. He is a four-time Gold Glove winner and has averaged .282-12-69 over his eight major league seasons. Hudson gives the Nationals two Gold Glove infielders, and greatly increases the team’s defense up the middle.

3. The Nationals have signed shortstop Khalil Greene to a one year, $3 million contract that includes incentives. I believe that Ian Desmond has the ability to be a major league shortstop, but there are questions regarding his glove. He makes the difficult plays look spectacular but boots too many routine outs.

If Desmond wins the job, Greene will be a capable of overpriced backup. However, if Desmond is not ready, Greene will provide the Nationals Gold Glove quality defense with a good enough bat for a shortstop. Greene’s career average is .245-20-77 and it was just two seasons ago that Greene hit .254-27-97. It’s his career .302 OBP that has kept other teams from guaranteeing him a starting job.

If he starts for the Nationals, he will likely bat eighth and any offense he provides will be considered a bonus. The incentive clause could add an additional $500,000 to his contract if he starts more than 120 games in 2010.

4. Outfielder Marlon Byrd will be rejoining the Nationals for 2010. He has agreed to a three year, $16.5-million contract that will make him the team’s everyday right fielder.

After the Nationals released Byrd in 2006, he has averaged .295-13-71 and has played a flawless outfield for the Rangers. He started for the first time in 2009, and batted .283-20-89.

We are expecting Byrd to provide stability to the Nationals’ outfield and hit .290-15-75, while batting sixth in the lineup.

5. Brian Schneider has signed a one year, $2.5 million contract with incentives. Though Jesus Flores will be the team’s No. 1 catcher, his many injuries make me question his ability to play an entire season injury-free.

If he survives the year unscathed, then the Nationals have a quality backup catcher in Schneider. If Flores loses time to injury, Schneider can step in and provide the team with solid defense and timely hitting.

If all goes as planned, Flores will start 110 games next year with Schneider filling in over the remainder of the schedule.

6. The Nationals have traded outfielder Elijah Dukes, pitcher Craig Stammen, minor league catcher Derek Norris, first-baseman Chris Marrero, shortstop Danny Espinosa and pitchers Jeff Mandel and Colin Balester to the Kansas City Royals for Cy Young Award winner Zach Greinke.

This trade came as a stunner to the fans of both teams, and both sides think their team “was robbed.”

Without the depth of the minor league system, this trade could not have been made. Jesus Flores should be the team’s catcher for the next six or seven years, making Norris expendable.

And with the extension of Dunn’s contract, Marrero is blocked as well. Ian Desmond is the shortstop of the future, making it difficult for Espinosa to find playing time with the Nationals. Dukes might end up becoming a .280-25-100 hitter, but he might not. Stammen and Mandel seemed destined as relief pitchers, so their loss is not difficult to replace.

Though we gave up a lot of talent, each of those minor league players are currently blocked by someone at the major league level who is producing well and helping the team win.

7. To bolster the starting rotation, the Nationals have signed 29-year-old Jon Garland to a two year, $12 million contract.

Garland will provide depth to a talented rotation and will give some of our other pitching prospects time to mature. Playing with both Arizona and the Dodgers last season, Garland went 11-13, 4.01 and pitched more than 200 innings, something he’s done five times in his career.

8. Shortstop Cristian Guzman has been traded to the Dodgers along with $4 million in cash for a minor league prospect. This move clears an additional $4 million of payroll from our books.

9. Believing the team will be in contention in 2010, the Nationals have signed future Hall-of-Famer Billy Wagner to a one year contract, worth about $6.5 million. The team will use Sean Burnett in the seventh inning, Mike MacDougal in the eighth, and Wagner will close out the ninth.

Wagner was actively sought by other teams, some who offered more money, but he was very adamant about his desire to play close to his Virginia home.

He understands this contract is for just one season unless he is willing to take over the role of setup man. Drew Storen, the team’s “other” first round draft choice in 2009, has the talent to take over as the Nationals’ closer in 2010 but another year of seasoning in the minors will make him that much more formidable in 2011.

Here is our projected opening day roster with their career average statistics based on 162 games (italicized statistics are for 2009 in cases where career stats aren’t indicative of the player’s ability)

CF—Nyjer Morgan                  .303-3-42, 46 steals, .362 OBP
2B—Orlando Hudson             .282-8-12, .348 OBP
3B—Ryan Zimmerman           .284-25-100, .347 OBP
1B—Adam Dunn                     .250-40-100, .383 OBP
LF—Josh Willingham              .264-26-83, .362 OBP
RF—Marlon Byrd                    .283-20-89, .340 OBP
C -–Jesus Flores                      .260-13-81, .313 OBP
SS—Khalil Greene                   .245-20-77, .303 OBP
Or    Ian Desmond                  .280-4-17, .313 OBP

Starting Pitchers

Zach Greinke                           16-8, 2.16, Cy Young Award Winner
John Garland       13-12, 4.42
John Lannan                            10-15, 3.91
J.D. Martin                              11-9, 4.41
Stephen Strasburg                   No stats yet

Total payroll savings from 2009 is almost $30 million and new signings and trade acquisitions totals about $37 million.

In other words, by increasing the team payroll by just $7 million, the Nationals have added Zach Greinke, Jon Garland, Brian Schneider, Orlando Hudson, Billy Wagner, Marlon Byrd, and Khalil Greene.

I believe that the Washington Nationals are one of the best teams in the National League East—perhaps the best—and should secure a playoff spot in 2010. We have done this without adding any payroll and have certainly added a group of talented players.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Please leave them in the comment section below. Yes, we are taking a chance with some of these moves, but sometimes you have to take chances to reap the biggest rewards.

Sincerely,

Farid Rushdi

Spring Training: It's Like Heaven, Only Better

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:53:57 -0500

Thanksgiving Day has a very special meaning to me. Oh sure, there are family and friends and turkey and football. But that's a given.

However, in my life, Thanksgiving is all about baseball. It was on that day 24 years ago that I left the blizzards and barren trees, the yellow grass and the smoking chimneys of middle-America for Southern Florida and year-round Spring Training.

I wrote this story last winter, but as I again sit in a house darkened by the greying skies that is winter's worst, I thought now might be a good time to remember why baseball is like no other sport.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Over the next month or two, stories about spring training will sprout up across the nation like grass on a freshly manicured Florida diamond.

Professional writers like Jayson Stark and Bill Gammons, as well as amateur bloggers and writers like myself, will begin to pen stories about the true meaning of spring training.

With eloquence, terms like "spring cathedrals" and "memories of my youth" will begin to dot the landscape of baseball blogs and magazines of every make and manner. Craftily worded metaphors will connect baseball to all things right and righteous.

Concepts like "patriotism" and "a strong work ethic" will flap in the breeze of their pleasant prose. Words and pictures will tell the stories of both the grizzled veteran sweating off his winter fat as well as the chiseled youngster with an ego as vast and as deep as his untapped potential.

We will read these stories and they will make us smile, because they will reflect memories of our childhood. Think of it as a kind of "Field of Dreams" flashback, but with real players and real fields and embedded dreams from our youth.

And like in the movie, the promise of "if you build it, he will come" still rings true.

For they built it. And I went.

I left Washington D.C. a half-decade after my beloved Senators did. Washington just didn't seem the same after RFK went dark during the city's hot, humid nights. True, George Allen and his Redskins electrified the city during those years, but their success made the summer silence all the more deafening.

I lived a few years in Denver and watched the Denver Bears play at Mile High Stadium. One night, their second baseman—35 and old for the American Association—was given an award at home plate. He had just graduated from law school. When the master of ceremonies asked the player what was next on his horizon, he replied that he'd like to manage in the big leagues one day.

His name was Tony LaRussa.

I joined the Air Force in the late 1970's and spent my first tour-of-duty in Japan, and learned that baseball was indeed a universal language. I saw Sadaharu Oh drive a ball deep over the right field fence at Korakuen Stadium in Tokyo and was amazed that his stance and his uniform mirrored that of Mel Ott and the New York Giants from decades long forgotten.

In the early 1980's, I saw Carl Yaztremksi play at Fenway Park, Carlton Fisk squat behind the plate at Comisky Park, and watched a woeful Mariners' team draw but a handful of fans to the Kingdome that was as cavernous as it was ugly. Kirk Gibson impressed me as he roamed the outfield at Tiger Stadium, covering the same turf that Al Kaline once called home.

While visiting my aunt in Birmingham, I had the chance to take in a game or two at historic Rickwood Field, where I saw a young outfielder slam—without question—the longest home run I have ever seen in person.

Reggie Jackson hit a lot of those, didn't he?

And, of course, there were those games in Baltimore, but I try to forget them as best I can.

As much as I loved watching summer baseball, I desired to experience it's prequel, it's birth, it's beginning.

I wanted to experience Spring Training.

Not just a game, or a series, mind you. I didn't want to be baseball's guest; I wanted to be its neighbor and its friend.

By 1985, however, it seemed that it would never happen, and that saddened me deeply.

I was living in St. Louis, surrounded and enveloped by a near-deadly combination of mortgage, marriage, and madness. My children kept me busy and my job kept me chained to a nine-to-five routine that never seemed to change. Most every summer night, though, Jack Buck and Mike Shannon would send 50,000 watts through my radio, breathing new life into my weary and worn-out soul.

My only outlet, as it had been my entire life, was baseball.

It had always been that soft, warm place that welcomed me after an especially harrowing day. It never threatened me for not paying my bills, and it always appreciated and accepted my love. It never, ever talked back, even when I deserved as much.

I was in St. Louis during that magical year of 1985 when the two Missouri teams met in the World Series. Bush Stadium rocked with "Whitey Ball"—Whitey Herzog's run-and-gun offense that featured solid pitching and seven players capable of stealing 30 or more bases.

The Cardinals, however, weren't really a baseball team.

They were a compilation of superhuman athletes who were so fast that even The Flash himself wouldn't have led the team in stolen bases. They were men who used their bats as a pool cues, deftly adding just the right amount of English so that the ball seemingly defied the laws of physics and always landed where intended.

Circuitous. Look it up in the dictionary and it you'll find as one of the definitions, "The way the ball travelled when hit by the 1985 Cardinals."

And they did all this on plastic grass.

Bad plastic grass.

I was saddened by my first view of the field at Busch Stadium. I entered through a portal on the first base side to find that the field wasn't green at all. A decade of abuse by both Cardinal teams and the hot Missouri sun left the first generation astro-turf a color more white than green.

This wasn't baseball. Not really.

Men in double-knit uniforms so tight that you could see a pimple on their butts were springing across an asphalt blacktop covered with three-eights-of-an-inch of padding and a quarter-of-an-inch of plastic skin. Monsanto made the stuff in the same plant where they made their carpets, for crying out loud.

This couldn't be the same sport that once featured our chiseled heroes in baggy flannels playing on dew covered grass to the cheers of a still innocent America.

Could it?

My daughter Kendi was three at the time. She was severely and profoundly handicapped, and in need of constant care and medical attention. Her mother and I almost lost her during the Christmas of 1985.

Her fragile little body couldn't handle another St. Louis winter. The doctor broke the bad news in her hospital room as her breathing was controlled by tubes, diodes, lights, and things I just didn’t understand.

"I'm sure you love living here in St. Louis, but for the sake of your daughter's health, you need to move to Florida."

Two weeks later, we were packed and on the road. On Thanksgiving Day, we left for Florida.

The pavement remained snow covered and the sky was a constant, silent gray until the Georgia border. By Atlanta, the sky was blue and the frost was gone from the windshield. By Jacksonville, the temperature had begun to rise.

When we pulled into our new driveway in West Palm Beach, it was January.

January and 74 degrees.

As my wife began to make sense of the boxes and baggage that littered the front room of our new home, I made a quick run to the Home Depot. On my short trip, I traveled past the West Palm Beach Municipal Stadium, which happens to be the spring home of the Atlanta Braves and the Baltimore Orioles.

The gates were open and the grounds inviting. I walked in.

The grounds crew was milling around the infield, working in new dirt around the third base bag. I took a walking tour of the complex. There were three batting cages and two regulation size fields. In the back of the complex were two diamonds with no accompanying outfields.

"For infield practice," a worker told me.

The Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos shared the facility, and employees from both teams scurried about—painting and hammering, grooming and renovating, moving and stacking. It was less than a month before players reported.

I returned home to help my wife unpack but found that she had done most of the work by herself. She probably thought I had taken a mistress.

She would have been right, of course. I had.

I made sure that I didn't start my new job until well after spring training began. I arrived at the complex close to eight every morning and stayed until the players left, usually around three or so.

A very elderly man from New York told me that I'd see more players on the golf course than on the ball field. He laughed as he said it, seemingly very happy with himself. In his mouth was a pipe with a cigar pushed deeply into its bowl. I asked him about it.

He smiled and winked.

In a gravelly voice, worn rough by a life fully lived, he said in the most stereotypical of New York accents, "My doctor, he said that never again a cigar should touch my lips. On that day, he said I should die." He bent his head a little to the left and finished, saying, "Kid, it ain't touching my lips."

That was his last spring training.

One morning, I had just gotten out of my car, and was heading toward the right field fence when I saw Bobby Cox. Then, the Braves general manager pulled up next to me. "Hiya Bobby!" I shouted. He paused and looked at me sternly for a moment, then broke into a toothy smile and waved as he walked toward the player’s entrance, never breaking his stride.

He was five years away from winning his first championship with the Braves.

On another day, I found Dale Murphy surrounded by a throng of star-struck kids in the parking lot. He signed and signed and signed until they all left with their small pieces of baseball history. He looked up at me and smiled, looking for something to sign. He cocked his head and took a second look and said, "Don't I know you?"

Dale Murphy and I attended the same church. He had seen me there.

Once.

And he remembered. He asked me how my daughter was doing. He remembered she was in a wheel chair. He asked if he could help give her a blessing. Later that day, he hit a 470-foot home run off Tippy Martinez of the Orioles. I saw him at church that Sunday.

"Aw, he just got it up a bit," was all Murph would say.

I visited Ft. Lauderdale and watched the Royals take on the Yankees. I saw George in the owner's box. I screamed hello.

He didn't hear me. I didn't care.

Charley Leibrandt was warming up for Kansas City in the sixth inning. At that time, the bullpen was along the left field fence next to the stands. The pitcher's rubber was three feet from the fence. As I leaned against the chain link, I could have reached out and fingered the seams of the arm patch on his uniform.

He pretended I wasn't there.

I pretended I was him.

He gave up three runs that inning.

I didn't give up any.

I saw the Reds in Plant City and the Twins in Orlando. I took in many Expos games in West Palm as well. Watching the games was wonderful, but watching the practices was even better.

I saw a tall 25-year old pitch three solid innings against the Orioles. He struck out three and walked one, giving up only a run-scoring double.

His name was Randy St. Claire, the current pitching coach of the Nationals.

In the third inning of a game in Orlando, I left my seat at Tinker Field for a few moments to take in the sights. On my way back, I stopped and asked the blue-haired lady at the concession stand if they sold "authentic" Orlando Twins caps. As she considered my question, her eyebrows rose so high that, for a moment, all the wrinkles on her face disappeared.

It was 1935 all over again.

As I turned to walk away, an athletic-looking young man asked me if I wanted the "real thing."

"Sure," I said. He walked me towards the clubhouse door, which was a simple metal gate along the side of the stands at Tinker Field.

He quickly looked both ways to make sure no one saw us, then opened the door and motioned me inside. It was the middle of the game and no one was there. He pulled a uniform out of a locker and grabbed a hat from a table that was emblazoned with the traditional interlocking "OT" logo of the Orlando Twins.

The jersey had belonged to a Minnesota Twins player the previous season. At the end of each year, the uniforms were handed down to the minor league club.

"I'll give you both for $25" said the young man.

"Won't they be missed?" I asked.

"Ah, I'll tell 'em someone stole them."

I returned to my seat with a brown paper bag that contained my prizes. The jersey was No. 21. To this day, I have been afraid to look up whose jersey I "purchased." Some things are better left unknown.

Has the statute of limitations for theft in Florida expired by now?

When my daughter's health permitted, my family left Florida and relocated to the mountains of south-eastern Idaho. I can't say that I necessarily miss spring training, because I saw all there was to see and learned all there was to learn about the shadowy underbelly of baseball's annual rebirth.

It was in Idaho, of all places, that I became a baseball insider, a member of the club, someone whose job everyone wanted. About an hour after the Idaho Falls Braves public address announcer quit and moved to Portland, I walked into general manager Rai Henniger’s office to try and sell him something.

He offered me the job on the spot. It paid $25 a game and included all the food I could eat. I later asked him why I got the job. "I had just moved here," he said, "and I didn't know anyone else to ask."

In other words, he knew talent when it walked in the door.

I spent the summer saying, “Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to McDermott Field for tonight’s game between the [visiting team] and your...home...town...Idaho...Falls Braves!”

No one from the Braves made it to the major leagues, and the only opposing player that ever impressed me was the Helena Dodger’s shortstop, Jose Offerman.

He had a pretty decent major league career.

I learned something while working for the Braves. I was not alone.

The team general manager and I were waiting out a rain delay in his office one evening when he reached into his desk and pulled out a worn shoebox full of audio tapes and threw it on his desk. He waited for me to ask what they were.

I obliged.

"Every year, I get hundreds of demo tapes from guys across the country wanting your job. Lawyers, doctors, delivery guys, you name it, they watch a game on TV and record themselves announcing the players. Most offer to do it for free. Some are willing to do just one game."

Pretending not to understand, I asked him why these men would humble themselves before a rookie league general manager so that a few hundred fans could hear them speak?

"It's not about them", he began, "It's about being part of baseball. It's about connecting with something that is more a religion than a sport."

"Oh," I said, as if I just had an epiphany. "I didn't think of that."

The rain finally let up, and I walked up the stairs to my perch directly above home plate. After downing a hot dog and a Coke, I was about to key the microphone and introduce the lineups when I thought about all those men who were unable to live their dream because I was standing in their way.

And at that moment I was perfectly satisfied with the situation.

I keyed the microphone.

In 1991, I was the photographer for the Pocatello Posse, who had moved from Salt Lake City when Derks Field collapsed and stayed a single season before returning to Utah and becoming the Ogden Raptors.

The Posse was an independent team, so you’d assume that no one on that club ever made it to the major leagues.

You’d be wrong if you assumed as much.

I took pictures of the players and usually gave them free 8''x10’'s for their families. It was highly doubtful, after all, that any of them would ever get out of the short-season rookie league, and I wanted them to have a memory of their time in professional baseball.

It was learned that the team was moving a day or two before the season ended. I said my goodbyes and was heading to the parking lot when one of the players shouted my name. I turned around to see something flying towards me.

I snatched it out of the air.

It was a black home Posse jersey emblazoned with “Pocatello” in teal and bordered in silver. Though the players were supposed to turn in their uniforms, this player—Cory was his name—gave me his. I think I’d given him five or six 8"x10"s. He was a nice guy.

It wasn’t until a small plane crashed into a tall building in New York City a few years ago that I realized that sitting in the back of my closet was the first professional baseball jersey of Yankee's pitcher Cory Lidle.

He really was a nice guy.

These are some wonderful memories that rank right up there with my wife and family. But as good as they are, and as often as I whimsically recall them, they are a minor part of my baseball past.

Being part of spring training—though I was just an insignificant fan—envelops and embraces me like nothing else I’ve experienced outside of marriage.

Spring training.

It’s like Heaven, only better.

But just as you can’t go home again, you can’t go back to spring training.

At least not any more.

It was a joyous time. Spring training touched my heart as I thought it would, and allowed me to understand baseball from a uniquely different perspective. I was able to observe first hand not only the joy on the face of the fans, but on the players themselves.

They were the kids. They were the ones living vicariously through their heroes as they did when they were little.

The smiles never left their faces.

Spring training was everything I hoped it would be. Fans and players were friends. More than once I saw a player having a catch with a young fan in the stands. Memories that would last a lifetime were created a hundred times a day in a dozen cities throughout the state.

I don't want to go back, though. My spring training doesn't exist any more. Today's spring training is carefully choreographed and sold to the highest bidder. Tickets are priced not for the average fan but for the groupies that follow them south each February.

My spring training was innocent and available to the public for free. The stands were full with fans both too young and too old to drive.

No longer is the game available to the average pensioner or middle-class fan. My gameday experience cost me about $4.00—$6.00 if you include the hot dog and the Coke.

They were the cheapest memories I ever purchased. And they were the best.

Just like that elderly man from New York, I am much closer to the end of my life than the beginning. Though still chronologically coherent, the years of raising two severely handicapped children have taken their toll.

As you get older, you get closer to God. Perhaps because you are wiser. Perhaps because you are scared.

With each passing health scare, I find myself inching closer to my religious roots. The Bible is read more often and prayers are again meaningful.

I am, as it were, "covering all my bases." Just in case.

Hmm. A baseball term used to describe preparations for the end of my days.

How delicious.

-------------------

The above image is of my daughter Kendi, whose illness brought me closer to her and nearer to my love of baseball.

Washington Nationals Must Extend Adam Dunn's Contract before Salaries Go Crazy

Farid Rushdi — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:58:39 -0500

If the Washington Nationals are planning on extending the contract of first baseman Adam Dunn, they had better do it soon because it looks as though the period of contractual sanity is over.

Fearing that Dunn was going to become a free agent at the end of the year in 2008, the Cincinnati Reds traded their all-star slugger to Arizona for prospects. And fearing that Dunn would accept arbitration and the team would be stuck with his $15 million contract for 2009, the Diamondbacks declined arbitration, making Dunn was a free man.

He sat back in his easy chair and waited for his phone to ring. It never did.

Dunn and his agent fully expected to be offered several multi-year deals worth $50 million or more. But by February 2009, they had received no substantive offers and were forced to accept the Nationals’ bargain-basement offer of two years, $20 million. Dunn was willing to sign a three year deal, but the Nationals said no.

They assumed, as I did, that contract values would continue to decline until the economy rebounded, which could take several years. If they waited, perhaps they could sign Dunn—or someone like him—for even less money.

But just a year later, the players believe that their recession is over.

Matt Holliday has indicated he has no desire to resign with the St. Louis Cardinals and will become a free agent. His agent, Scott Boras, has said he expects “[Alfonso] Soriano-type money” for his client.

In the winter of 2006, Washington free agent Alfonso Soriano signed an eight year, $136 million contract with the Cubs. Three years later, Soriano, now 33, batted just .241-20-55 and Chicago is stuck with him through 2014.

Now, Boras usually asks for the moon, but he usually gets what he wants. No, Holliday isn’t getting $17 million a year, but he might come close.

If Holliday were the only slugger expecting to hit a Las Vegas-style jackpot this year, I’d call him an anomaly. But he’s not the only one.

Jason Bay, the low-key, high-octane outfielder for the Red Sox turned down Boston’s four-year contract that would have paid him $15 million per season. He too enters the jet stream that is the free agent market.

If Jason Bay thinks he’s worth more than $15 million per year, and Matt Holliday thinks he’s worth even more than that, what is Adam Dunn worth in this new market?

Let’s compare the three players' career averages:

BA—HR—RBI

Dunn: .250-40-101

Bay: .280-33-107

Holliday: .318-29-112

Runs Scored

Dunn: 100

Bay: 102

Holliday: 109

Doubles

Dunn: 29

Bay: 34

Holliday: 43

Triples

Dunn: 1

Bay: 4

Holliday: 5

Walks:

Dunn: 115

Bay: 86

Holliday: 61

Strikeouts

Dunn: 180

Bay: 157

Holliday: 115

OPS

Dunn: .903

Bay: .896

Holliday: .833

Clearly, there are some differences. Holliday provides a much higher batting average but is not as powerful. Dunn and Bay strike out far more often than Holliday. All three average more than 100 runs scored and more than 100 runs driven in.

A team would be no better with one of those players in their lineup as opposed to the other two. Defensively, Bay and Holliday are adequate while Dunn is a sub-par outfielder, but will become an adequate first baseman.

So, really, they all bring roughly the same amount of ability to a team. Sure, Holliday will get more base hits but Adam Dunn will hit more home runs.

Bill James has an abstract statistic called “runs created per game,” the number of runs a player produces for his team every 27 outs.

Holliday creates 7.8 runs per game, Dunn 7.5, and Bay 7.3.

So let’s assume that both Bay and Holliday get their $15 million contracts this winter. Where does that leave the Nationals and Adam Dunn?

If Dunn doesn’t get his extension and he reenters the free agent market next fall, he would likely earn at least $13 million, perhaps more. Remember, Dunn earned $13 million in his last season with the Reds, before the market collapsed.

Knowing this, Dunn wouldn’t agree to an extension for the same $10 million per year he’s earning now; it will probably take $12.5 million to get him to extend through 2012.

It was Adam Dunn who protected Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup, allowing him to have his career year in 2009. It was Adam Dunn whose long home runs gave the Nationals some badly needed national recognition. It was Adam Dunn who gave the Nationals their first household name.

Nothing the Nationals do this year or next will matter much if Adam Dunn plays just two years in Washington. No longer can the team be sellers; they must continue to sign new players while retaining their own.

Can you imagine the outcry if the Nationals win 75 or 85 games in 2010 only to lose Dunn to free agency? No free agent signing could salve that wound.

Ryan Zimmerman notwithstanding, Adam Dunn is the linchpin of the Washington Nationals. Without him, stories written about the team in the coming years would be about what could have been if the Nationals had only been able to resign the team’s modern-day Frank Howard.

It won’t be pretty, that’s for sure.

Strasburg and Storen Ready To Transform Nationals Into Winners

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:38:21 -0500

When the first round of last summer’s amateur draft came to an end, the Washington Nationals had significantly improved themselves by selecting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen.

Usually, it takes several years before a team knows whether their first-round selection was a success. Since picking Ryan Zimmerman in 2005, the Nationals have selected eight players in the first-round (including Strasburg and Storen). The jury is still out on Colton Willems, Christopher Marrero, Michael Burgess, Josh Smoker, and Ross Detwiler. Aaron Crow never signed with the team.

Of those players, only Marrero seems certain to have a major league career in the offing.

So you never know.

Well, you almost never know. There is little doubt that this year’s picks, Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen, will arrive in Washington soon and once here will be part of the Nationals’ franchise for years to come.

Both players now have enough professional innings under their belts to begin to get a sense of the type of players they will be.

Here are Strasburg’s numbers, which include his two outings in the Florida Instructional League. I have, however, omitted his outing earlier this month when he gave up seven runs in three innings; I think his body was taken over by the spirit of some long-dead 20-game loser.

Seriously, I have heard more than one ESPN radio jockey say that Strasburg is causing the Nationals concern because he’s not pitching well in Arizona. In other words, they look at his 4.16 ERA and make assumptions.

Let’s not make assumptions. Take a look at his numbers:

Innings Pitched: 21

Runs: 3

Walks: 3

Strikeouts: 25

ERA: 1.28

Batting Average-Against: .219

Strikeouts per 9 Innings: 10.7

Walks per 9 Innings: 1.2

Just like in college, Strasburg is a strikeout machine while walking almost no one. Based on a full major league season, Strasburg would be on pace to strikeout 250 while walking just 30.

Yeah, that’s crazy.

Tracy Ringolsby of Foxsports.com wrote recently that the Nationals need to go slow with Strasburg, that they need to keep him in the minor leagues until he’s ready to succeed at a major league level.

Ringolsby said that the Nationals should keep him the minors until he dominates them.

Well, he’s dominating the Arizona Fall League, which is comprised of the very best prospects in the minor leagues. And on top of that, it’s is a hitter's league.

How much more dominating does he need to be?

If Strasburg pitches well next spring—I’m talking 15 innings, 20 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00 here—then there is no reason for him not to start the season in Washington.

Unlike Strasburg, who signed his contract with just seconds left before the deadline, Drew Storen signed the very next day and quickly reported to Class A Hagerstown, ready to dominate the league.

Right up until he got tagged for a long home run by the first batter he faced.

Since then, however, Storen has been even more dominating than Strasburg, if that’s possible. He was promoted to High-A Potomac and again to AA Harrisburg before the season ended.

Here are Storen’s statistics, which include his Arizona Fall League numbers:

Innings Pitched: 50

Runs: 9

Walks: 11

Strikeouts: 62

ERA: 1.61

Batting Average-Against: .203

Strikeouts per 9 Innings: 11.1

Walks per 9 Innings: 1.51

Though Storen seems ready to take over as the Nationals’ closer in 2010, the team is considering bringing back Mike MacDougal and is looking at established, veteran closers like Mike Gonzalez and Virginia native Billy Wagner.

It would seem that the only way Nationals’ fans see Drew Storen in 2010 is if they buy a plane ticket to Syracuse. And really, the team is right for going slow with Storen. Terrible teams don’t need dominant closers.

Better to wait until 2011 when the Nationals will have Strasburg for the full season along with a healthy Jordan Zimmermann.

Baseball America lists Strasburg and Storen as the team’s top two prospects, and they are right of course. They will fill two of the biggest holes in the Nationals’ roster, and the two of them could help turn the team around quickly.

It’s happened before.

The Houston Astros won just 76 games in 1995 and decided to bring up a couple of young pitchers towards the end of the season to give them some seasoning.

The following year, Houston won 82 games and finished second in their division behind the pitching of Mike Hampton and Billy Wagner. The Astros went on to win their division four of the next five years.

Yes, it can happen that fast. Here’s hoping it happens for the Nationals.

Zimmerman's Gold Glove, Riggleman's Permanent Hire Emboldens Nationals Future

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:20:02 -0500

Wednesday was a very good day for the Washington Nationals.

Ryan Zimmerman, who former general manager Jim Bowden described as a “future Gold Glove winner” when he drafted him 4th overall in 2005, won his first Gold Glove award earlier this afternoon.

A few hours later, Jim Riggleman, who single-handedly skippered the Nationals away from the horror of becoming the latter-day ’62 Mets, was named the team’s permanent manager.

Now, neither of these moves strengthens the team, but it does stabilize it.

When Zimmerman first arrived in Washington in September 2005, I had never been surer about the future stardom of any player I had seen in the last 40 years, and his rookie season bore that out. He batted .287-20-110 and fielded flawlessly.

His next two seasons, however, gave me the impression that perhaps Zimmerman was destined to be a good—but not great—major league third baseman. He batted just .266-24-91 and committed 23 errors in 2007 and 2008 was lost to injuries.

Fortunately, 2009 settled the matter with an exclamation point.

Zimmerman batted .292-33-106 with career highs in on-base percentage (.364) and slugging percent (.545). Defensively, he was simply the best third baseman the National League has seen since the Phillies’ Mike Schmidt prowled the Veterans Stadium carpet in the 1970’s and ‘80’s.

Yes, he made a boatload of throwing errors in midseason, but he corrected the problem and the voters certainly forgave that one negative in a sea of overwhelming positives.

This time last year, I was afraid that Zimmerman’s “Face of the Franchise” tag would ultimately turn into an embarrassment for the team. Luckily, I couldn’t have been more wrong. He has Frank Howard’s demeanor, Brooks Robinson’s glove, an all-star bat and a long-term contract.

Who could ask for anything more?

I read an interesting comment on a Nationals’ blog regarding the hiring of Jim Riggleman. This person wasn’t happy with the decision, saying that the team hired a “mediocre” manager and destined the franchise for years of mediocrity.

You know what? After back-to-back 100 loss seasons, I look forward to a little mediocrity.

True, in 10 seasons as a major league manager, Riggleman has a 555-694 record, a .444 winning percentage. But eight of those seasons were as manager of the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs, teams that don’t exactly have a history of winning baseball.

Riggleman’s record with the Padres was his worst as a manager, going 112-179 (.385). In the three years before Riggleman took over, the Padres had an average record of 84-78, but they also fielded a team that consisted of all-stars Benito Santiago, Jack Clark, Roberto Alomar, Gary Templeton and Tony Gwynn.

In his last year with the Padres, he went with players like Scott Livingstone, Eddie Williams, Phil Plantier and Ricky Gutierrez. Obviously, the Padres went cheap and Riggleman paid the price.

In his five seasons with the Cubs, Riggleman averaged 76 wins and a .472 winning percentage. In the three years before Riggleman joined the Cubs, the team averaged 81 wins with players like all-stars Mark Grace and Andre Dawson as well as Hall-of-Famer’s Ryne Sandberg and Greg Maddux.

By his last year in Chicago, the youngest member of the starting lineup was 29 and featured four players over 35. It was a recipe for disaster.

It was nearly a decade before Riggleman got the chance to manage again in the major leagues, taking over for the Mariners’ John McLaren after 72 games in 2008. Under McLaren, Seattle went 25-47 (.347). Under Riggleman, they improved to 36-54 (.404).

2009 was supposed to be a year of hope for the Nationals. After a 59-win season in 2008, the Nationals believed that the addition of several veteran players as well as a maturing rookie crop would help the team add 15-20 wins.

It never happened.

Injuries, poor play and bad leadership found the Nationals with an embarrassingly bad record of 26-61 after the All-Star break, too close to the impotent ’62 Mets for comfort. Manny Acta was fired and replaced by Riggleman.

Even though the team had lost Nyjer Morgan and Jordan Zimmermann for the season, and had several starters banged up, the Nationals finished the season 33-42, upping their winning percentage by 146 points.

Though the team went through—in GM Mike Rizzo’s words—an “exhaustive and comprehensive search” for a new manager, many believe that it was all a smoke-and-mirrors formality required by the upper echelon of Major League baseball.

Well, maybe, and maybe not.

I’d have to believe that if Don Mattingly was interested in coming to Washington, the Lerner family and team President Stan Kasten would have considered him very carefully.

But it’s important to note that Riggleman’s record as a manager thus far, while telling, isn’t a barometer of future success.

Over his first 14 seasons as manager before joining the Yankees in 1996, Joe Torre had a record of 893-1008 (.470) with the New York Mets, Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals.

He was 57 when he took over the Yankees, the same age Riggleman was when he took over the Nationals.

If the Nationals give him the opportunity to win, Jim Riggleman will succeed. If the situations in San Diego and Chicago replicate themselves, and he is forced to manage a team sans Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and John Lannan, then he’s going to fail.

Personally, I think the Nationals’ new skipper is going to be around a long, long time.

Six Months Later, Nationals 2009 Amateur Draft Seems an Impressive Haul

Farid Rushdi — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:37:57 -0500

By the time the 2009 baseball amateur draft concluded last June, the Washington Nationals had added 50 players to their minor league system.

But really, other than the first two—Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen—the other 48 were unknowns who would quietly slip into the anonymity of the low minor leagues, likely never to be heard from again.

A player’s first year can be very telling regarding his hopes of making it to the major leagues. Let’s take a look at the “lower 48” and see how they did in 2009:

Second Round: Jeff Kobernus (2B) Cal Berkley

Batted .220-0-2 in 10 games for the Vermont Lake Monsters. Hopefully, his .273 on-base percentage and .244 slugging average are the result of a small at-bat sampling.

His father was a minor league player in the 1980’s. Kobernus batted .341-8-17 his junior year before being drafted by the Nationals.

Third Round: Trevor Holder (RHP) University of Georgia

Overall, Holder was 4-3, 6.97 in 11 starts. However, he was 2-0, 3.55 for Hagerstown before being promoted to Potomac, where he was clearly in over his head, going 2-3, 9.26 in six starts.

Holder averaged 13 hits, 3.0 walks, 7.2 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Holder was thought to be a sure first-round pick in the 2009 June draft but shoulder tendonitis caused his stock to drop. He was picked by the Marlins in the 10th round but did not sign. Holder had an up-and-down season in 2009 and fell to the Nationals in round three.

General Manager Mike Rizzo believes that Holder will one day be a middle-of-the-rotation starter for Washington.

Fourth Round: Anthony Morris (RHP) Kansas State University

Though Morris went 0-3 in 10 starts with the Gulf Coast Nationals and Low-A Hagerstown, he had a very impressive 3.38 ERA, allowing 9.3 hits, 1.7 walks and 8.4 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Morris was the Big-12 Pitcher of the Year in 2009, going 14-1, 2.09 with 100 strikeouts. He has a 92 mph fastball and a “plus” slider.

Fifth Round: Miguel Pena (LHP) La Joya High School, Texas

Pena didn’t sign with the Nationals, opting to play for San Jacinto Junior College instead.

Sixth Round: Michael Taylor (SS) Westminster Academy, Fla.

Taylor had planned to attend the University of North Florida but was swayed by the Nationals offer of a six-year contract. He signed quickly—on June 11—but it looks like he has yet to make his professional debut.

He played for the Nationals’ Instructional League team in Florida last month.

Seventh Round: Andrew Weaver (RHP) University of Georgia

A teammate of Trevor Holder, Weaver split his first season between the Gulf Coast Nationals and Vermont Lake Monsters of the New York-Penn League. In 10 games, he was 0-1, 3.55 with two saves, allowing 9.9 hits, 2.8 walks and 7.1 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Weaver was the closer for the Bull Dogs, saving 10 games while going 4-2, 3.60 in 29 games. With Drew Storen as the team’s future closer, Weaver’s status long-term is uncertain.

Eighth Round: Roberto Perez (SS) Dorado Academy, Puerto Rico

Perez signed in late August and has yet to make his debut with the Nationals. He is considered a defensive shortstop with some pop in his bat. He was going to attend Oklahoma State before signing with Washington.

Former big league shortstop Dickie Thon is his uncle.

Ninth Round: Taylor Jordan (RHP) Brevard Community College, Florida

Jordan started six games for the Gulf Coast Nationals, going 2-0, 3.63. He allowed just 6.5 hits and 2.3 walks per 9 innings while striking out 8.6.

10th Round: Paul Applebee (LHP) Cal State Riverside

Applebee played for the GCL Nationals and Vermont, going 0-2, 3.24 while allowing just 8.4 hits and 1.1 walks per 9 innings, striking out 7.5.

11th Round: Justin Bloxom (LF) Kansas State University

Bloxom, teammate of fourth-round pick Anthony Morris, batted .228-3-24 in 228 at-bats for Vermont. He had a decent .346 on-base percent, though.

12th Round: Nathan Karns (RHP) Texas Tech University

Karns signed just before the deadline and has yet to play for the Nationals.

In 13 starts for the Red Raiders, Karns went 4-5 with a 4.20 ERA. Obviously, his talent doesn’t show in his college stats.

13th Round: Patrick Lehman (RHP) George Washington University

Lehman was outstanding for Vermont and low-A Hagerstown, going 4.2, 1.97, allowing 6.5 hits, 0.3 walks and 4.6 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Wait, 0.3 walks per 9 innings? Wow. In 59.1 innings, Lehman walked two batters.

14th Round: Naoya Washiya (RF) College of the Desert, California

Washiya went .246-0-14 for the Gulf Coast Nationals with a .331 on-base percent and a .314 slugging mark.

15th Round: Corey Davis (1B) Coffee High School, Georgia

I can’t find any information about Davis; I don’t think he signed.

Among the remaining 35 rounds, many picks didn’t sign and those who did had a kind of first year you’d expect from a late-round draft pick. However, there were some exceptions:

21st Round: Mitchell Clegg (LHP) University of Massachusetts Amherst

Clegg was very impressive for the Vermont Lake Monsters this past season. In 10 starts (13 total games), he went 2-4, 2.20, allowing 8.8 hits, 2.0 walks per 9 innings while striking out 4.7.

Those are good numbers for even a third or fourth round pick. Perhaps the Nationals found a sleeper in Clegg.

2nd Round: Dan Rosenbaum (LHP) Xavier University, Ohio

Rosenbaum’s impressive stats need to be taken with a grain of salt because he was a 21-year-old pitching against 18-year-old kids in the Gulf Coast League.

That said, he went 4-1, 1.95, allowing 7.1 hits and 2.2 walks per 9 innings. He struck out 9.2 per 9 as well.

29th Round: Evan Bronson (LHP) Trinity University

Bronson was a closer for Vermont of the New York-Penn League, going 3-0, 0.55 with four saves. He allowed just 5.1 hits and 0.5 walks per 9 innings while striking out 6.9

Those are very impressive numbers (especially the three walks in 49 innings) and should earn him a promotion to Hagerstown in 2010.

The Nationals seem to have an excess of closers in their minor league system.

It’s very difficult to predict future greatness based on just one year, but the Nationals’ 2009 draft seems to be well stocked with pitchers and bereft of any standout position players.

The offensive players hit .220, .228, .246, .269, .214 and .238 (several of the position players signed late and have no statistics to look at).

The pitcher’s ERA was 6.97, 3.38, 3.55, 3.63, 3.24, 1.97, 7.20, 2.20, 1.95, 3.51, 4.15, 4.35, 0.55, 3.91, 3.44 and 3.95.

It has been the policy of the Nationals, under both former general manager Jim Bowden and current GM Mike Rizzo, to draft pitchers over position players so that one day—hopefully—the team would have enough depth to stock the big club and trade the excess for hitters.

Bowden has often said (and Rizzo agrees) that it's easy to draft a bat but no one ever has enough pitching.

With this draft, I think the team is there. I’d look for the Nationals to draft college position players, and a lot of them, in 2010.

When Healthy, Craig Stammen Was Washington Nationals' Best Starter in 2009

Farid Rushdi — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 18:51:57 -0400

Craig Stammen pitched pretty well as a rookie in 2009, though he had not looked nearly as crisp over the last month of the season. It seemed as though opposing hitters had begun to make their adjustments once they had seen him a few times.

Certainly, that happens to many rookie pitchers who, after looking very good the first time around the league is never heard from again.

But Chico Harlan posted the following on his Washington Post Journal on Sept. 2:

“Rookie starter Craig Stammen, a member of Washington's pitching rotation since May, has been scratched from his start on Friday because of elbow soreness. An MRI, scheduled for Thursday in Washington, D.C., will determine the severity of the injury.”

"I don't really know what's going on," Stammen said of his elbow. "It's just painful. It doesn't feel good. It's kind of something that's built up over the course of the whole year.

"It's something I've pretty much dealt with over the course of the whole season. It's just kind of time to get it checked out right now."

Five days later, Stammen had surgery on that elbow and was finished for the season.

The 25-year-old is now throwing without pain and is certain he will be ready to go when pitchers report to Spring Training next February. Doctors removed a bone spur from the back of the elbow and bone chips from the front.

While Stammen said he dealt with the pain all year, it became difficult to pitch in late July when he could no longer extend his elbow.

Was Stammen’s 4-7, 5.11 record indicative of his ability, or was it tainted by injury?

Here are his numbers from his first 12 starts (through July 22) and when he said the pain became worse (July 29 through Aug. 29):

Games Started:

1st Half: 12

2nd Half: 7

Record:

1st Half: 3-5

2nd Half: 1-2

Earned Run Average:

1st Half: 4.14

2nd Half: 7.39

Innings Per Start:

1st Half: 6.2

2nd Half: 4.2

Hits Per 9 Innings:

1st Half: 9.2

2nd Half: 11.9

Strikeouts Per 9 Innings:

1st Half: 4.6

2nd Half: 3.9

Walks Per 9 Innings:

1st Half: 1.8

2nd Half: 2.8

Batting Average-Against:

1st Half: .254

2nd Half: .309

On Base Percentage-Against:

1st Half: .297

2nd Half: .350

Slugging Percent-Against:

1st Half: .398

2nd Half: .600

Pitchers Thrown for Strikes:

1st Half: 65%

2nd Half: 59%

Those were some very impressive numbers that Stammen compiled before the elbow pain lowered his performance level.

To give you a better feel for his accomplishments, let’s compare Stammen’s batting average-against, on-base percentage allowed, and slugging average against (prior to his injury) with John Lannan, J.D. Martin, Jordan Zimmermann and Livan Hernandez:

Craig Stammen: .254—.297—.398

John Lannan: .266—.329—.421

Jordan Zimmermann: .271—.332—.429

Livan Hernandez: .295—.346—.411

Most of us have grown weary of the triple-digit losses and want a quick fix for the Nationals’ troubles, and we want it now . Tangible upgrades—John Lackey, Randy Wolf —are about all that will calm the collective anger of the Nationals’ nation.

But if we’re fair about all of this (and who says fans have to be fair?), Stamman and J.D. Martin showed enough in their rookie seasons to at least begin next season in the starting rotation.

However, if both pitchers fail next year, the Nationals are looking squarely at a third 100-loss season in a row, something the city just can’t accept.

Another year like the last two, and the team might as well board up Nationals Park and see if the city of Montreal remembers where they put the Youppi! costume.

It’s a tough choice to be sure. The Nationals could sign a couple of quick-fix, medium-priced free agent starters and try to tread water until the Stephen Strasburg makes it to the big club and Jordan Zimmermann returns from his injury.

They can do that, or hope that Martin and Stammen mature into another John Lannan, something both of them are easily capable of doing.

But if they don’t—if they falter—the Nationals have no one to replace them and things could turn very ugly in 2010.

Will general manager Mike Rizzo go for guaranteed mediocrity and sign a couple of decent free agents, something Nationals’ fans would gladly accept in 2010, or will he roll the dice and hope that Stammen and Martin will lead him out of the basement and into the promised land, but knowing that the end of the world (baseball style) was just around the corner?

Stay tuned.

Washington Nationals Just Three Players Away From Respectability

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:17:40 -0400

In 2008, The Washington Nationals had the worst record in all of baseball because they had the worst players in all of baseball. That kind of stands to reason, don’t you think?

They ended the season with just 59 wins, thanks in part to their woeful offense, by far the worst in the league.

Club owner Mark Lerner and team president Stan Kasten vowed to place at general manager Jim Bowden’s disposal the necessary resources to at least make the team competitive in 2009.

And for the most part, they succeeded. In trying, that is.

Spring Training found several new players on the roster, players who actually had some real major league talent. The additions of Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Jordan Zimmermann, Joe Beimel—and later Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett—seemed to infuse the Nationals with enough ability to expect at the very least another 10 or so victories in the win column this past season.

Seven months later, the Nationals ended the 2009 season with 59 wins, the same number as the year before.

How is that possible? How can a team be that much better and yet be just as bad?

The offense, last in virtually every offensive category in 2008, was middle-of-the-pack or better in those same categories this past season.

They upped their team batting average seven points to .258, hit 39 more homers, and scored 69 more runs, increasing their production from 3.9 to 4.3 runs per game.

The Nationals jumped from thirteenth in on-base percentage to sixth (.337). Even their slugging percent was a respectable .337—good for ninth in the league—up 14 points from 2008 when they finished last.

The Nationals walked more and struck out less. They became more patient at the plate, increasing their pitches-per-plate-appearance from 3.73 (13^th in the National League) to 3.86 (third).

The team had one of the better leadoff men in Nyjer Morgan and perhaps the most feared middle of the lineup in Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn, who combined for 71 homers and 211 RBI.

No, it wasn’t the offense.

It was the Nationals pitching staff in 2009 that sank their chances for a competitive season, finishing far worse than the previous year’s group who themselves finished last in the league.

They were the worst in the league, and then went downhill from there. That’s the kind of double-whammy that a team just can’t escape from.

The Nationals’ ERA increased by more than half a run to 5.02 as they allowed 36 more hits and walked 252 more batters while striking out 152 fewer players.

The opponents batting average increased six points to .276 (worst in the league) while their on-base percentage jumped by nine (worst in the league). Opponent’s slugging percentage was .450, which was … you guessed it … worst in the league.

The starter’s statistics were very similar in 2008 and ‘09. In 2008, the rotation went 34-75 with a 4.88 ERA and 67 quality starts. This year, they went 35-64, 4.91 and 64 quality starts.

But in 2008, the bullpen was the strength of the pitching staff with a record of 25-27, 4.28. Now, don’t get me wrong; these aren’t the stats of a contending team. But they are the stats of a competitive team.

Just a year later, the bullpen was in shambles and the team continued their freefall towards the cellar. In 2009, the bullpen record was 25-39 with a 5.15 ERA, almost a full run higher than the previous year.

But to be fair, those relief numbers are deceiving.

Manny Acta began the season with a bullpen that included Julian Tavarez, Jesus Colome, Mike Hinckley, Steven Schell, Joel Hanrahan and Kip Wells and boy-oh-boy were they terrible. They combined for a 9-18, 7.10 record before they were demoted, discarded or released.

They were replaced by a group that featured Sean Burnett, Mike MacDougal, Tyler Clippard and Jason Bergman who, along with Ron Villone settled down a very flighty bullpen. They finished the 2009 season with a combined record of 13-13 and a sparkling 3.39 ERA.

Over the winter, the Nationals added several quality players and finished with the same record. This year, a starting pitcher and two solid relievers could bring the team to within sniffing distance of a .500 record.

Sean Burnett, Mike MacDougal, Tyler Clippard and Jason Bergman should return in 2010. Drew Storen, the Nationals “other” first-round pick in 2009, continues to impress in the Arizona desert, but it would probably be best if he spends next year honing his craft in Syracuse.

Billy Wagner, one of the best closers in baseball history, will be a free agent this winter and wants very much to play closer to his Virginia home in 2010.

Yes, that Virginia, the one along the city's southern border.

Show Wagner that the team will be improved next year and I think he’d sign with the Nationals, which would make the bullpen well above average. Add a 2010 version of Joe Beimel—maybe bring Beimel back—and Washington would have a tremendous bullpen.

Two of the Nationals’ best starters, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, really can’t be counted on until 2011. So unless a trade is made, the team will have to find five starters among John Lannan, Craig Stammen, J.D. Martin, Livan Hernandez, Ross Detwiler and Colin Balester.

A linchpin in the rotation could be Scott Olsen, who was lost for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Olsen, who at just 25 has won 33 major league games, could provide a much needed veteran presence if he’s healthy.

However, to keep him, the Nationals will have to pick up his option this winter, and would have to do so before he is fully healed. I doubt that general manager Mike Rizzo is willing to take that kind of chance on the injured southpaw.

The Nationals will say goodbye to Dmitri Young and Austin Kearns this winter, saving them $13 million in payroll. Add to that the $9 million already saved when the team traded Ronnie Belliard and Nick Johnson and the Nationals will have a nice little nest egg to spend on free agents this winter.

Billy Wagner and a second bullpen arm would cost about $12 million. The Nationals could then sign a quality starter—say Randy Wolf—and not spend a penny more in salary than they did last year.

And the Nationals would be on the road towards respectability.

Three free agents, good ones but not great, could bridge the gap between a very bad Nationals team and the very good one that will break out of its cocoon when Strasburg and Zimmermann take to the mound in 2011.

Most teams seem to sandwich a .500 season in between their last lousy year and their first good one.

For the Nationals, 2010 just might be that year.

Washington Nationals' J.D. Martin Is Every Bit as Good as Ace John Lannan

Farid Rushdi — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:29:30 -0400

In 2007, John Lannan came out of nowhere.

An 11th-round afterthought in 2005, Lannan climbed the minor league ladder quickly, going a combined 12-3, 2.87 before finishing the season with the Nationals where the 22-year-old went 2-2, 4.15.

Since then, Lannan has won 18 games and been the team’s presumptive ace.

Man, if the Nationals could find just one more pitcher to come out of nowhere, 2010 could be a fun year to watch.

Ladies and gentlemen, meet J.D. Martin, the next John Lannan.

It’s not that Martin wasn’t a known commodity in the baseball world. The Cleveland Indians chose the high school pitcher in the first round of the 2001 amateur draft, using their compensation pick for the departed Manny Ramirez.

Martin had tremendous control and a good fastball with movement when he began his minor league career. In his first two seasons in the Indians organization, he went a combined 19-6, 3.17, allowing 2.5 walks per nine innings while striking out 11.

In other words, he was dominant.

However, his strikeouts all but disappeared in 2004 as he toughed through an 11-10, 4.39 season in the high-A Carolina League. His strikeouts per nine innings dropped to six and his arm felt sore towards the end of the season.

There were signs of an arm injury, but it was hoped that an off-season of rest would help Martin regain his strength.

And it seemed to. Ten games into the 2005 season, Martin was 3-1, 2.38 and was again striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. However, the sore arm returned and he was forced to under go reconstructive “Tommy John” surgery that July.

He returned late in 2006, and over the next three years crafted a record of 15-8, 3.31, with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

However, in 2008, his last year with the Indians, he was primarily a reliever; the team didn’t feel he was good enough, or strong enough, to be a starter any more.

Believing that he could still be an effective starter, Martin left the Indians as a six-year minor league free agent and signed with the Nationals last winter.

He quickly became the team’s premier minor league pitcher, going 8-3, 2.66 in 15 starts with Class-AAA Syracuse.

But he was not the same pitcher anymore. Martin began pitching to contact and threw strikes, lots of them. With Syracuse, he struck out six per nine innings while walking just one, an amazing walk to strikeout ratio at any level.

In nine minor league seasons, Martin had compiled an outstanding record of 56-28 with a 3.29 ERA and yet he’d never had the opportunity to pitch in a major league game.

That changed, however, when the Nationals’ Scott Olsen was lost for the season with a arm injury and the team desperately needed a fill-in arm.

Enter J.D. Martin.

In 15 starts in 2009, Martin went 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA. He showed he had the ability, the tenacity, and the desire to succeed at the major league level. He didn’t do any one thing particularly well, yet by the time he walked off the mound, he more often than not had his team in a position to win.

But let’s look at his internal numbers and compare then with the aforementioned Lannan, the Nationals’ best starter:

Hits per 9 innings

Lannan: 9.2

Martin: 9.9

Homers allowed per 9 innings:

Lannan: 1.0

Martin: 1.6

Walks per 9 innings:

Lannan: 3.0

Martin: 2.8

Strikeouts per 9 innings:

Lannan: 3.9

Martin: 4.3

Baserunners per 9 innings:

Lannan: 1.35

Martin: 1.42

In virtually every category of statistical significance, the two were nearly identical. It would seem that the Nationals have indeed found their second out-of-the-blue starting pitcher.

But the news just gets better, just as Martin did as the season progressed.

In his first four starts, Martin gave up 13 runs, 24 hits, and five walks in just 16 innings. Since then, however, he might have been the best pitcher in the rotation. Take a look at Martins numbers compared to Lannan’s in their last 11 starts:

Innings Pitched

Martin: 60

Lannan: 63

ERA

Martin: 3.71

Lannan: 4.95

Hits per nine innings

Martin: 10.1

Lannan: 10.2

Walks per nine innings

Martin: 3.0

Lannan: 2.6

Strikeouts per nine innings:

Martin: 2.1

Lannan: 2.0

Batting average-against:

Martin: .264

Lannan: .263

On-base percentage allowed

Martin: .330

Lannan: .332

Slugging percentage allowed

Martin: .455

Lannan: .437

Percentage of strikes thrown:

Martin: 63%

Lannan: 63%

Line drives allowed

Martin: 17%

Lannan: 25%

Team record in starts

Martin: 8-3

Lannan: 4-7

Once Martin gained some experience at the major league level, he was able to stay with Lannan pitch-for-pitch over the last third of the season. So what’s the difference between team “ace” John Lannan and Martin?

About 55 career starts.

Should Martin repeat his rookie effort in 2010, the Nationals will have two very solid—though not spectacular—young pitchers who should be the No. 3 and 4 starters for the team once Stephen Strasburg makes it to the big leagues and Jordan Zimmermann returns from injury.

Most of us have scoffed at former general manager Jim Bowden’s penchant for signing minor league pitchers off the scrap heap. It just never seemed to work.

This time, however, Bowden was right.

J. D. Martin might not be a sexy choice for the rotation in 2010, but he is a solid choice. He outpitched the team ace for most of 2009; what else does he have to prove?

The Washington Senators Played a Part in Baseball's Free Agent History

Farid Rushdi — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:44:15 -0400

The 1971 Washington Senators were an embarrassingly bad baseball team.

After owner/general manager Bob Short traded the core of his team, pitcher Joe Coleman, third baseman Aurelio Rodriguez and shortstop Eddie Brinkman, to the Detroit Tigers for over-the-hill pitcher Denny McLain and a bunch of guys named Joe, there were more holes in the lineup than players to fill them.

I’ve always believed that the idea behind the movie “Major League,” where a cynical owner stripped her team of all talent in hopes of lowering attendance as a justification to move the franchise, was based on Short.

He had made noises about facing financial ruin for more than a year, and it was obvious that he wanted out of Washington, D.C. very badly. Remember, he was the owner of the Minneapolis Lakers in 1959 when the team moved to Los Angeles, California.

Short, needing bodies (but not good ones) to fill the uniforms, contacted the Philadelphia Phillies about outfielder Curt Flood, who was traded to the Phillies from St. Louis the year before, but did not report.

It wasn’t too long before Short traded Greg Goosen , Jeff Terpko , and Gene Martin to the Phillies for the rights to Flood .

Flood, who was traded to the Phillies the previous offseason along with Byron Browne , Joe Hoerner , and Tim McCarver , for Jerry Johnson , Dick (Don't call me Richie!) Allen and Cookie Rojas , never reported to Philadelphia.

"I've spent the last eleven years of my life in St. Louis," Flood told the Sporting News. "My home, my car, my friends, they're all there. I shouldn't have to move unless I want to, and I don't want to!"

He sued Major League Baseball and its reserve clause, asserting that he had the right to play anywhere he chose, that a person working at a local grocery store didn’t have to get permission to move across the street to the competition.

Of course, he lost the fight in the court house, but ultimately won the war on the playing field.

But Short wasn't making a statement by obtaining Flood, and Flood wasn't any less angry about the way baseball had treated him when he agreed to play in Washington.

After sitting out the 1970 season, he simply needed the money. Flood's 1970 salary was $110,000, second highest on the team, behind only Frank Howard's $120,000 contract.

There were some who believed that, at 33, Flood wouldn't be able to return to form as one of baseball's premier center fielders.

He didn't look particularly good during spring training, but manager Ted Williams said publicly that his time spent at Pompano Beach was more about reintroducing himself to the game of baseball then about producing hits or driving in runs.

However, in his book “A Well Paid Slave,” author Brad Snyder wrote that Williams never wanted Flood on his team in the first place, and told friends privately that it was obvious that the outfielder had lost—to a great degree—his baseball skills.

I was at that last opening day at RFK in 1971 when the Senators opened against the Oakland Athletics, a game the Senators won 8-0.

Flood went 1-3 with a bunt single, but he looked so desperately slow in the outfield. Sadly, that was the highlight of his season. Flood played in just 13 games, batting .200 with just seven hits, all singles.

Then one day, he was gone. He just got on a plane and flew to Barcelona, Spain.

On the night that Flood left the team, Ron Menchine, one of the team's radio announcers, read Flood's statement on the radio, in essence saying that while he tried as hard as he could, the year layoff hurt him more than he anticipated, and he was going to retire rather than play at such a low level.

In reality, Flood was near a breakdown. He was so difficult to get along with that he was the only player on the team not to share a room on the road. He would close the door after returning from the ballpark and would drink a pint or more of vodka every night.

Flood's short stint with the Senators in 1971 is but a footnote in team history, but his tireless work in bringing down the reserve clause makes him one of baseball's most important figures.

His efforts paid off when pitchers Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally became baseball's first free agents four years later, the result of an arbitrator's decision that ruled the reserve clause illegal.

I was saddened when Flood left the team in 1971. I firmly believed that he had it within him to not only come back, but to come back with a vengeance, and with a better frame of mind, perhaps he could have.

But it's very hard to go back into the system that you sued, that you said was wrong, and that you likened to slavery. He likely felt hypocritical, and so he left with no regrets.

Flood died at the young age of 59 in 1997, taken from us by throat cancer. At least he had the chance to see firsthand what his efforts brought to the next generation of major league baseball players.

How Jeffrey Loria Destroyed the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals

Farid Rushdi — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:00:29 -0400

The Montreal Expos were the best team in the National League back in 1994. Their roster was the perfect mix of up-and-coming youngsters and experienced veterans.

Cliff Floyd, Mike Lansing, Marquis Grissom, Moises Alou, Larry Walker, Rondell White, Pedro Martinez, Ken Hill, John Wetteland, and Darrin Fletcher were just some of the names dotting the Expos' major league roster.

The Expos got off to a fast start and when the player's strike began on Aug. 12th, the Expos had the best record in all of baseball at 74-40 and were on pace to win 106 games.

They averaged almost 24,000 fans per game and things looked bright for both the franchise and the city.

A year later, the Expos were slowly going the way of the dinosaur.

The majority of their star players were gone in a cost-cutting tsunami that slashed more than a quarter of the team's payroll. They won 31 games less (based on full seasons in 1994 and 1995) and failed to make the playoffs.

And their fans noticed. Attendance dropped a full 10,000 per game.

Baseball in Montreal was over. Oh sure, they played on for another decade, but neither the owners, or the fans, took it very seriously.

In the team's 35 year history in Montreal, the Expos failed to draw one million fans nine times.

Seven of those nine seasons occurred after 1994.

So who's to blame? Several people; some greedy, some stupid, and some both.

Baseball had a rich and storied history in Montreal. Except for a few years after World War I, Montreal had a professional baseball team from 1897 through 1960, when the Dodgers' move from Brooklyn to Los Angeles made the traveling distance between the cities unworkable.

Montreal was chosen as one of the National League's two new baseball cities in late 1967. Though many owners were uncomfortable with Montreal's ability to support a major league franchise, the Dodgers' Walter O'Malley, a friend of the city, supported their bid and ultimately Montreal was awarded their franchise.

Charles Bronfman, majority owner of the Seagram's empire, was named as the franchise's first owner. Bronfman, Canada's fifth richest man, was easily able to absorb the losses that came with fielding a very bad team over a very long period of time.

The Expos played their first eight seasons at Jarry Park, a 28,000 seat bare-bones stadium that was a converted tennis facility. The team averaged almost 14,000 fans per game during their time at Jarry Park, right at the National League average for that era.

The move into Olympic Stadium, though it didn't significantly increase attendance, was a turning point for the team. Prior to the move, the Expos never had a winning record, but from 1979 through 1994, the Expos had just three losing seasons.

In their last 10 years in Montreal, the Expos had a winning record just three times.

Charles Bronfman hated Olympic Stadium. The facility, built for the 1976 Olympics, was cold and cavernous and most of the new technologies created for the stadium never worked properly.

Bronfman lobbied the city for a new, baseball only facility but to no avail. Citing the failed economics of professional baseball at the time (the Expos total revenue was less than what the Yankees received just for their broadcast rights) Bronfman put the team up for sale.

The Expos were sold to a group of 14 investors in 1991.

After the lost season of 1994, and with the writing on the wall, the owners instructed general manager Kevin Malone to strip the team of its well salaried stars.

The team didn't offer salary arbitration to any of them, which meant that while the players would not return (and the team was rid of their salaries), neither would the team receive draft picks as compensation for losing the players.

Larry Walker, perhaps the team's biggest star, told ESPN.com that he would have been happy to take a pay cut to stay in Montreal, but the Expos never contacted him after the season ended.

Not only was the major league roster being decimated, but the minor league system was not being replenished either.

Disaster was just around the corner.

Jeffrey Loria had wanted to own a baseball team for quite some time. In his early 50's, the native New Yorker had made his fortune in the art world.

In 1989, he bought the Oklahoma City 89'ers, a "AAA" minor league team, but sold them four years later to pursue a major league franchise. He tried, but failed, to buy the Baltimore Orioles in 1994, losing out to current owner Peter Angelos.

Five years later, in 1999, Loria was able to buy a minority interest in the Expos for $50 million and became the team's managing general partner.

Over the next couple of years, Loria bought out the majority of the general partners, eventually owning 92 percent of the Expos.

Disaster had landed at the doorstep of the Montreal Expos. It's name was Jeffrey Loria.

In his first speech as owner of the Expos, Loria demanded a new stadium for his team. He bluntly said of Olympic Stadium, "We cannot and will not stay there."

The city made it very clear at the time that they would not build a new facility when millions were still owed on the existing stadium.

Later, though, the city began to warm to the idea of a new stadium and LaBatt Park was designed and was ready to be built using a combination of public and private financing. The facility was to be ready for the 2002 season.

However, Loria balked and demanded that the city pay a higher percentage of the building costs.

The city, weary of dealing with Loria, cancelled the project.

In 2000, Loria's demand for increased broadcast rights' fees was so great that the team could not find any English-speaking radio or television stations to carry their games.

Manager Felipe Alou, who had been with the organization for 27 years, was one of the most beloved of Expos. He had recently been offered a hefty raise to leave Montreal and manage the Los Angeles Dodgers. He refused, citing loyalty to the Expos as his reason.

A short time later, Loria fired him and replaced him with friend Jeff Torborg.

Now, this is where it gets confusing.

Loria wanted to buy the Florida Marlins, which was then owned by John Henry, who wanted to buy the Boston Red Sox.

With a little sleight-of-hand, a lot of money, and a few winks from Major League Baseball, Henry bought the Red Sox, Loria bought the Marlins, and the other 29 owners bought the Montreal Expos for $120 million.

Did you follow that?

Loria brought from Montreal to Miami the team's computers, all the equipment that didn't have an Expos logo (and a few that did), office equipment, all of the team's scouting reports, and other proprietary information.

But he didn't stop there.

Loria also took the team manager and the entire coaching staff.

What he left behind was a team headed for contraction.

A month earlier, Major League Baseball had voted 28-2 to contract both the Expos and the Minnesota Twins.

The team, stripped of everything but a few players and their uniforms, was headed into oblivion until the governing body of the Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis sued Major League Baseball for breach of contract.

And won.

The Expos were given a reprieve.

Major League Baseball authorized the team to play in Montreal in 2002 but they were very clear that the league would appeal the judges ruling and fully anticipated that contraction would indeed occur sometime after the season.

And then Major League Baseball realized that they didn't have either a coaching staff or any front office personnel for the Expos.

Oops.

Major League Baseball chose baseball's chief disciplinarian, Frank Robinson, to be the team's manager. The Angels' vice-president Tony Taveres was named the Expos president, and Mets' assistant general manager Omar Minaya was named the team's general manager.

Later that season, Major League Baseball agreed not to contract the Expos and Twins.

But wait.

For more than a year, Bud Selig told the people of Montreal that they had no interest in keeping baseball in their city. The people stopped coming, and they stopped caring.

But instead of moving the team to a new city, and giving the team their future back, Bud Selig decided that the team would play a quarter of their home games in Puerto Rico.

The additional attendance was negligible.

New general manager Omar Minaya treated the team as though they had no future. During this period of uncertainty, Minaya traded away minor leaguers (and future stars) Jason Bay, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Cliff Young for basically nothing.

The Expos' players realized there was no hope for baseball in Montreal late in 2002.

In spite of all the trades and unusual roster moves, the Expos were actually in the pennant race. The players were tired and looking forward to the traditional roster expansions that occur Sept. 1st, when teams call up their best minor leaguers and give them some major league experience.

One small problem, though. Major League Baseball turned down GM Omar Minaya's request to bring up the young players.

Too much money, they said.

The Expos, realizing they had no help coming, lost badly in that final month and were an afterthought in the National League East.

And they were an afterthought again in 2003. And 2004.

Things were so bad in that final year in Montreal that I'm surprised they found enough working trucks to haul everything down to Washington in time for the start of the 2005 season.

Is it no wonder, then, that the team's first five seasons in Washington have been bumpy?

It's easy to say that if the Nationals would only sign a few more big-name free agents, the team would be good enough to be competitive every night.

Not true.

It's been difficult to watch, but the team needed to get young, get deep, and get a minor league system that can produce major league players.

It won't take too many more moves before the Nationals will be ready to contend.

For real.

I know I'm in the minority, but I know the Nationals are just a year or two away from being the feel-good story of the year.

Really.

Why The Amateur Draft Is The Top Priority For the Washington Nationals

Farid Rushdi — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:40:05 -0400

After years of neglect and abuse, the Washington Nationals’ farm system is beginning to look like, well, a farm system again.

When the Montreal Expos moved here in the fall of 2004, the farm system was completely bare; all of the best players—Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay—had been traded by then general manager Omar Minaya.

Of that class of 2004—those having never played in the majors—not a single player has made it to the major leagues as a productive full-time player. Just two, shortstop Ian Desmond and pitcher Colin Balester, might one day become credible major leaguers.

The Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, had 10 players in 2004 that are today quality major leaguers: Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco, Vincente Padilla, Pat Burrell, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Carlos Ruiz, Cole Hamels, Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick.

Now, there is no guarantee that Chris Marrero, Josh Smoker, Michael Burgess, Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and Destin Hood will even make it to the major leagues, little alone make a difference.

But one thing is for sure, the last three or four drafts couldn't be any worse than what this franchise has had prior to 2005.

Would you have liked the 2009 Washington Nationals to look like this?

CF— Curtis Granderson
RF—Aaron Rowand
2B—Chase Utley
3B—David Wright
LF—Garrett Atkins
CA—Brian McCann
1B—Prince Fielder
SS—Brian Roberts (original position)

And this starting rotation wouldn't have been too bad, would it?

Barry Zito
Jeremy Bonderman
Dan Haren
C.C. Sabathia
Cole Hamels

I would think that this version of the Washington Nationals would have played well into October.

The Nationals wouldn't have had to trade for, or sign as free agents, any of these players. They only needed to choose them in the baseball amateur drafts from 1998-2002. Each player listed was available in one of the first four rounds of each draft after the Expos made their selection.

Incredible, huh?

In the first round of the 2000 draft, the Expos chose pitcher Justin Wayne , bypassing Chase Utley and outfielder Rocco Baldelli. In 2001, with Aaron Heilman, Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman, Noah Lowry and David Wright waiting to be chosen, Montreal went with pitcher Josh Karp .

In 1998, infielder Josh Mc Kinely was chosen ahead of Brad Lidge, Jeff Weaver, C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Rowand. Three rounds later, first-baseman Clyde Williams was taken by the Expos instead of Barry Zito and Mike Maroth.

2002, however, was the worst .

With one of the top picks in the draft, Montreal chose Clint Everts , a pitcher who is today still toiling in the minor leagues. In that same first round, however, they could have chosen Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Jeremy Hermida, Khalil Green, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Jeff Francoeur or Matt Cain.

There can be only two possible conclusions for the team picking lumps of coal for their Christmas stockings when candy and toys were still available.

Either general managers Jim Beattie (1995-2000) and Omar Minaya (2001 - 2004) were stupid and couldn't find a major league prospect in a barrel of fish or they were told by ownership to draft "signable" players rather than the best player available.

I vote the latter.

Jeff Loria was so cheap and difficult to work with that the city of Montreal withdrew its funding for Labatt Park, the stadium that was to keep the team in Quebec.

The following season, no English speaking radio station would carry the Expos’ games for the price that Loria demanded. Today, Loria is the owner of the Florida Marlins, and his continual fire sales show he’s still a bottom line, and not a finish line, type of owner.

Both owners, then, saw the amateur draft as a drain on resources, and told the team's general manager to only draft players that would sign within a particular financial parameter. That kind of draft philosophy destroyed the team's farm system, once one of the richest in the major leagues.

Justin Wayne (#1, 2000) is out of baseball having fashioned a 25-34, 3.97 career record. He started only eight games in the major leagues. Tom Mitchell (#5, 2000), the guy chosen over Garrett Atkins, never played professionally. Josh McKinley (#1, 1998), the 11th player chosen, never made it above 'AA' and retired in 2004.

Josh Karp was the poster-boy for the team's low-budget draft philosophy.

Karp, a 6'5" right-hander, was drafted in the 8th round out of high school by the Atlanta Braves in the 1998 draft. Not wanting to sign for 8th round money, he played three years for UCLA (8-3, 4.29 in '99, 10-2, 5.08 in '00 and 5-2, 3,26 in '01).

Though he did strike out 10 batters per nine innings during his college career, he also walked four and gave up 8.5 hits. He was considered a mid-round pick at best. Yet the Expos, having the 6th pick of the draft, weren't about to pay a bonus that could reach three million dollars.

They instead chose Karp, a player they assumed would be so grateful to be a first-round pick that he'd sign quickly and easily. He signed all right, and for very little money. But he lasted just four seasons in professional ball, going home to Bothell Washington in 2005 with a 24-32, 4.74 record.

That #6 pick could have brought the Expos Jeremy Bonderman or David Wright or Aaron Heilman or C.C. Sabathia or .... well, you get the idea.

Thank goodness the Washington Nationals are starting to right their ship. No, things aren’t perfect, but the minor league system now has 15-20 players that you would expect to have at least an average major league career.

The Justin Wayne's and Josh McKinley's and Josh Karp's of the world are now a footnote in the team's history. Sure, the players they sign may never make it to the major leagues. But they also might end up being stars for years to come.

That's what’s fun about the draft.

The Washington Nationals' Chris Marrero On-Target For a 2011 MLB Debut

Farid Rushdi — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:03:22 -0400

When the Washington Nationals selected Chris Marrero with the overall 15^th pick in the 2006 amateur draft, the team hoped they were drafting a high school slugger who was polished enough to make it to the majors quickly, possibly by 2011.

Were they right? At this point, it sure seems like it.

The Nationals had closely followed Marrero in high school and were very impressed, but they weren’t sure he’d still be available when their turn came. As a junior, Marrero had batted .379-13-25 for Monsignor Pace High in Miami, and was considered one of the best rising seniors in the nation.

However, a hamstring injury suffered early in his senior year forced Marrero to open up his stance, and his production dropped significantly.

Now the Nationals weren’t sure he was a risk worth taking with their first round pick.

A pre-draft workout at RFK Stadium, however, allayed the team’s fears. Marrero was pain free and able to close his stance, and the ball began to rocket off his bat. He hit several balls over the fence that day, two into the upper deck.

The Nationals were sold and made Marrero their top pick of 2006.

He signed quickly, garnering a $1.6 million bonus and reported to the Nationals Gulf Coast League team as a starry eyed 17-year-old. He did well, hitting .309 in 89 at-bats. Marrero impressed the organization in 2007, batting a combined .275-23-88 for low-A Hagerstown and high-A Potomac.

Marrero returned to Potomac in 2008 and started slowly, but had his numbers up to .250-11-38 in 70 games before breaking his leg in a slide into home, ending his season.

Never an Adonis physically, Marrero spent that off-season running, lifting weights, but more importantly, avoiding fast food. Countless stories came out of Viera Florida this spring about Marrero’s chiseled features and a renewed desire to succeed.

Playing for Potomac for a third year, the now 20-year-old batted .287-16-65 before finishing the season with ‘AA’ Harrisburg where he held his own against pitchers three and four years his elder, hitting .267-1-11 in 75 at-bats.

Scouts project Marrero to be a power hitter capable of hitting 30 homers at the major league level, but as good as he is offensively, he has real problems in the field. A natural third baseman, he was shifted to the outfield because of Ryan Zimmerman, but was just too slow to catch balls hit into the gap.

He is now the team’s first baseman of-the-future, but he continues to have problems defensively. He committed 20 errors in 2009 and there is no sign that he’ll ever be anything more than adequate in the field.

Marrero is part of the Nationals’ Arizona Fall League team and in two games thus far is 3-7 with a double and a homerun against baseball’s top young pitchers.

Chris Marrero is just 20, he’s playing Double-A ball, he’s part of the elite Arizona Fall League, and he will likely be arriving at Triple-A Syracuse sometime late next season.

If he continues to perform like he has, he just might get his cup-of-coffee with the Nationals next September and then—who knows?—he could see some significant playing time in 2011 at the major league level.

Or, he might not. Not everyone is Ryan Zimmerman, who was mature enough—and good enough—to start in the majors at 21.

But whether or not he makes it in 2011 really isn’t important. The hope four years ago was that Marrero would be in the position to play with the big club in five years, and it looks like that’s exactly where he’s going to be.

My guess is that the Nationals—unwilling to put Marrero in a position to fail—will extend Adam Dunn’s contract, giving the kid from Miami a little more time to polish his game.

By 2012, the Nationals should be in a position to contend for a playoff spot, and Chris Marrero should be ready to help them get there.

Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman: Best Pick in the 2005 Amateur Draft?

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:25:10 -0400

As much as I love the Washington Nationals, I think it’s fair to say that they haven’t done much right since moving to D.C. five seasons ago. Too many of the team’s personnel decisions have backfired, leading to several very long, very ugly, very bad years.

One of Jim Bowden’s first moves was to trade a part-time outfielder and a poor-hitting shortstop to the Angels for the volatile Jose Guillen. At the time, it seemed like a steal.

And it was, but not for the Nationals.

Guillen gave the Nationals one good year (.283-24-76) in his two seasons in Washington. Juan Rivera has been a fixture for the Angels since the trade and batted .287-25-88 this year while playing a flawless right field.

And that light-hitting shortstop, Maicer Izturis, has been the Angels’ starting shortstop since the trade, batting .300-8-65 in 2009 and making just four errors all year.

I could go on, but really, why make your day any worse?

Within that boiling cauldron of mismanaged player transactions, however, is one very good, very lucky move that the Nationals can bank on as the cornerstone of future seasons.

That would be, of course, Ryan Zimmerman.

Oh, wait; you want another lousy personnel decision?

Jim Bowden didn’t like outfielder Endy Chavez very much and traded him to the Phillies for Marlon Byrd, an outfielder they didn’t like very much. He played for two seasons with Washington before leaving via free agency; the Nationals didn't want him anymore.

He signed with the Rangers that winter.

This season, Marlon Byrd batted .283-20-89 while providing the Rangers with solid defense.

Do you think the Nationals might have liked to have an outfield of Josh Willingham, Marlon Byrd and Juan Rivera this year?

All they have to show for the loss of those three players is minor-leaguer Michael Burgess, who the Nationals drafted in the 2007 amateur draft as a compensation pick for the loss of Guillen.

Okay, back to Zimmerman.

When the Nationals picked fourth in the 2005 amateur draft, they chose from a pool of over 2,000 high school and college amateurs. Just three players (the three picks ahead of the Nationals) were unavailable.

How did the Nationals do? In the words of that ancient knight from "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade," they "chose wisely."

Let’s take a close look at the top five picks of that draft and see how the Nationals fared compared to the other four teams:

Justin Upton was the top pick of the draft, going to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his first full season in the major leagues this past year, Upton hit .300-26-86 with 20 steals. However, he is a defense liability in the outfield, which is surprising considering his excellent speed. He committed 12 errors and had just four assists.

Upton is only 21, however, and will get better. While he may not end up being the best player in the draft, the Diamondbacks will never be disappointed with their pick.

The Kansas City Royals, however, are another story entirely.

The Royals had the second pick in the draft and were in need of a third baseman. Kansas City had three top players to choose from: Alex Gordon from the University of Nebraska, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan Braun out of the University of Miami.

Gordon was considered the best of the three and the Royals used their second pick to select him.

Four years later, it seems that the Royals made a big mistake.

Gordon’s first professional season came in 2006 when he tore up the AA Texas League, batting .325-29-101 with 22 stolen bases for Wichita. He made it to the majors the next season, but so far has had difficulty hitting major league pitching.

This past season, Gordon batted just .232-6-22 in 49 games and has had problems defensively—he had a .920 fielding percentage in 2009.

His scouting reports still say that Gordon will one day be an All-Star. He may eventually turn it around and reach his potential, but I wouldn’t count on it.

The Seattle Mariners had the third pick in the draft and selected catcher Jeff Clement from the University of Southern California.

After a cup of coffee in 2007, Clement played 66 games with Seattle in 2008, hitting .227-5-23. He spent all of last year in the minors, batting .288-14-68 with Tacoma before being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates late in the season in a seven-player trade. In 27 games, Clement hit just .224 for AAA Indianapolis.

My guess is that the Mariners realized that Clement didn’t have the future of a No. 3 draft pick and traded him before his value dropped any further. While taking him third overall made sense in 2005, in hindsight, it seems he isn't a top-three talent.

Former general manager Jim Bowden was very high on Zimmerman, and happily took him with the fourth pick in the draft. After a 73-game minor league apprenticeship in the summer of 2005 (.331-12-41), he was promoted to the big club that September and has been the starting third baseman for the Nationals ever since.

Zimmerman had an outstanding rookie season in 2006, hitting .287-20-110 while playing a flawless third base. He was the odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year Award that winter, but finished a few points behind Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez.

I’ve never fully understood why so many players have a “sophomore slump,” but Zimmerman was certainly no exception in 2007, batting .266-24-91 while committing 23 errors at third base. His 2008 wasn’t much better. Injuries sapped his power and malaise seemed to overtake him early in the year; he ended the season hitting .283-14-51

There was some concern among Nationals fans that perhaps, just perhaps, Ryan Zimmerman was going to be a good—not great—player for the Nationals. Now, there is nothing wrong with being a complementary player, but that does become a problem when that player is considered “The Face of the Franchise.”

The 2009 season, then, was to be a watershed year for Ryan Zimmerman. After four years, we would all have a pretty good idea of the type of player he was going to be.

And without a doubt, he showed us.

Zimmerman had that breakout year we’d all been hoping for, hitting .292-33-106 while his defense improved so much that he seems to be a lock for this year’s Gold Glove Award.

I think there is little doubt now that Zimmerman is in fact “The Face” and, at just 24, will only get better.

The last of the top five picks was Ryan Braun, who might be the best pure hitter of the bunch. Since joining the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007, Braun has averaged .308-34-108 with a .937 OPS.

However, because his fielding was so atrocious, the Brewers were forced to move Braun from third base to left field. While his defense has improved in the outfield, it is a situation of going from horrible to acceptable.

There is little doubt that if Ryan Braun played in the American League, he’d be a designated hitter.

There were other quality players selected after Zimmerman. Toronto’s Rickey Romero (13-9, 4.30), Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki (.297-32-92), Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce (.240-43-110) and Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox (.301-8-60) were all first-round picks and have all made an impact at the major league level.

However, each of them has a noticeable flaw in their game. Romero has a problem throwing strikes. Bruce is another Adam Dunn—a low batting average, high strikeout hitter who is a poor defender. Ellsbury lacks power.

Tulowitzki is a fine all-around player, but his statistical splits show that much of his offensive production comes when playing in the high altitude of Coors Field. Take a look at how his numbers change playing at home:

Hits: +11
2B: +3
3B: +3
HR: +2
RBI: +22
BB: +1
K: -26
AVE: +59
OBP: +49
SLG: +88
TB: +30

Zimmerman’s home and away splits are almost even. His batting average this season was 11 points higher on the road. His on-base percentage was two points higher at home and his slugging percentage was six points higher on the road.

In other words, he’s basically the same player at home and on the road, unlike Tulowitzki.

So, what if the Nationals had the first pick, and knew then what we know now about the abilities of these first-round players. Who would they have taken?

Certainly, none of the picks taken after Zimmerman are any better. Gordon and Clement are disappointments, at least thus far in their careers.

That leaves the choice between Zimmerman, Justin Upton and Ryan Braun.

Braun has too many defensive liabilities, and it’s much easier to find a quality outfielder than it is a third baseman. And while Justin Upton may surpass Zimmerman offensively—and he just might—he is a poor defender and isn’t a complete package. (Yes, I know he has tremendous potential, but his tsn.ca scouting report refers to his defense as “raw” and that he “loses focus” while in the field).

While Ryan Zimmerman wasn’t the first choice in the 2005 amateur draft, I think he has developed into the most well-rounded player of the group. Some of the others have a little more power, or a little higher batting average, or field just as well, but none of them do all of those things as well as Ryan Zimmerman does.

And, to top it all off, he enjoys playing for the Nationals and wants to stay here throughout his career.

And he’s a heckuva nice fellow, too.

Jim Bowden didn’t do much right, but in the case of Ryan Zimmerman, we owe him a debt of gratitude that can never be repaid.

Did Washington Trade Joe Coleman Because He Was Too Good?

Farid Rushdi — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:06:27 -0400

After finishing my Air Force enlistment in Japan, my wife and I spent a couple of years living in her familial home of Salt lake City, Utah before returning home to Washington D.C.

It was there that my first daughter, Kira Katrina, was born on June 19, 1981.

She is now 28, and married with a daughter. Where has the time gone?

Sigh...

Anyway, the doctors let her go home three days later with the admonition that we get her outside, and into the sunshine.

My daughter was suffering from jaundice and was a little too yellow for the doctor's liking.

We were driving home from the hospital and passed Derks Field, home of the Salt Lake Gulls, the California Angels' "AAA" affiliate.

Cool. That's outside. We'll do that.

With my wife's official okey-dokey, we pulled into the parking lot and made our way to the ticket booth. Two tickets; $3.50 total.

Not bad at all. Even for 1981.

As we entered the grandstand, we realized that it was "Picture Day" at Derks' Field. We could go right on to the field and have our picture taken with our favorite Salt Lake City Gull.

Historical note: Shortly after Brigham Young led the Mormon exodus into the Salt Lake valley, an invasion of crickets began to devour the group's first real crop. Prayers were answered when thousands of sea gulls came literally out of nowhere and munched the insects into oblivion.

So the team name "Gulls," had real meaning for the locals.

Along the first base line, separated by twenty feet or so, were each of the Gulls' players and coaches. My wife, just 72 hours removed from pushing the equivalent of a bowling ball out from between her legs, begged off, and took a seat just behind the first base dugout.

Carrying my new daughter, I walked down the steps and onto to the field, and headed over to Daryl Sconiers, a high average, good field, medium power first baseman from California.

I handed him my baby daughter, and he eagerly grabbed her into his arms. As I was setting up the shot, he reached into his mouth and pulled out a small piece of his tobacco plug and said, "Hey baby, want some of my chew?"

I snapped one quick picture and moved on.

I began to walk towards the Gulls' star outfielder Tom Brunansky, who was just a few days away from beginning a stellar major league career.

As I got closer, I noticed a man in a Spokane Indians' uniform watching with amusement at what the Salt Lake players were having to endure.

While waiting for Brunansky's line to shorten I kept looking at this guy. He was too old to be a minor league player, but certainly young enough to still be in the major leagues.

The more I stared, the more I began to realize that I'd seen him somewhere before.

Suddenly, while talking to first baseman Jim Maler, the other guy went into a mock windup and pretended to throw a pitch.

Bingo!

It was former Senators' pitcher Joe Coleman. I recognized the follow-through.

Just as Brunansky put out his hands to take my daughter, I turned and walked away and headed straight for that other guy whose team wasn't even participating in "Picture Day."

I approached the man, handed him my daughter and said "Hold this please."

I took a few steps back and began to set up my camera. Confusion didn't begin to describe the look on his face.

"Um, we're not part of the picture day event" the man said. "Oh, I know; hold still please," I replied.

He then gave me a half-smile and said, "Oh, you must be from Spokane!"

"Nope. Can you move your head to the left please?"

"Seattle?"

"Never been there. Raise your cap just a bit."

I snapped the above picture while he was still trying to figure out why this guy from Salt Lake City shoved a baby into his arms. You can clearly see that "what in the heck is going on?" look on his face.

Now, I wasn't just a Washington Senators' fan you understand. I knew every stat of every player who ever wore the expansion team's uniform.

I knew all about this guy.

I was refocusing my camera when I said almost matter-of-factly, "In your first three starts, you went 3-0, all complete games, and all before the age of 20 at that. How'd that feel?"

Before he could answer, I said, "That trade with the Tigers was the worst in baseball history."

For those of you too young to remember, Coleman was traded by the Washington Senators following the 1970 season with Ed Brinkman, Jim Hannan, and Aurelio Rodriguez to the Detroit Tigers for Denny McLain, Don Wert, Norm McRae, and Elliott Maddox.

This was one of the worst trades in memory, as the Senators traded their ace pitcher, another solid starter/reliever and the entire left side of their infield for three reserves and a guy who used to be Denny McLain.

Many of us old-timers believed that team owner and general manager Bob Short had already decided to move the team to Texas, and gutted his Senators to lower attendance, and make MLB approval more certain.

I've always seen a parallel between what Bob Short did and the movie "Major League."

When I mentioned the trade, Coleman began to chuckle and shake his head in disbelief. "Obviously you know who I am. Who are you?"

I smiled and said, "Just another fan who'd loved to have had the chance to beat the hell out of Bob Short when he made that trade in 1970."

The man dropped his head and began to laugh. "If you want to beat up Bob Short, you must be from Washington," he said, still shaking his head.

He put my baby girl onto his left shoulder and walked to me with his arm outstretched. "Hi, I'm Joe Coleman" said the lanky pitcher with still a "tinch" of his Massachusetts accent remaining.

We talked for about 15 minutes before the "Picture Day" event came to an end.

He told me that he really enjoyed his time in Washington, and yes, he couldn't believe that he went 3-0 with three complete games to start off his major league career.

Coleman told me that, at first anyway, he was saddened to move on to Detroit, but he began to realize that he moved with a large part of his team, so at least he wouldn't be lonely, and maybe, just maybe, he'd have a chance to finally win a pennant.

I asked him about Ted Williams. He said that during spring training of 1969, Williams scared him to death. "I was 22 for crying out loud, just a kid, really. And me, being a kid from Natick, playing for a guy I grew up watching, a guy my dad pitched against? It was crazy."

His dad was Joe Coleman Sr., a pitcher for the Philadelphia Athletics for many years and finished his career with a 52-76, 4.38 record.

Was Frank Howard as nice as he seemed? "Nicer."

Who was the better left side of the infield, Mark Bellanger and Brooks Robinson of the Orioles, or the Senators' Eddie Brinkman and Ken McMullen?

"No one was better than Robinson, but Kenny was the best of the rest. Eddie was better than Mark, and was a much better hitter in 1969 and 1970."

Could Frank Howard have been a better fielder if he practiced more? (smile) "Well, Frank was never much for practice, but then he didn't need it usually."

What did you think of your trade when you first heard about it?

"At first, I thought it was one-sided like everyone else, but not as much as you might think. I thought that Denny (McLain) would regain his stuff and win 15-20 games for Washington in 1971.

"I thought Toby Harrah was close enough to take over at short or third, so they really needed to replace only one starting infielder. I didn't think it was a great trade, but not a bad one. I guess I was wrong."

I got the impression that no one had asked Coleman these questions for some time, and that he enjoyed the trip down memory lane.

Although he had three or four outstanding years for the Tigers, he was never a household name, especially in his team's hometown of Spokane, Washington. I think he actually enjoyed the time we spent talking about his past.

I shook his hand and told him I enjoyed coming to RFK and watching him play. I had gotten about five or six steps towards the stands when he said, "Hey!"

I turned and looked back to see that he had walked towards me. He put his hand out one more time and said, "If you paid those ticket prices at RFK, I guess I can 'comp' you a few tickets now."

For the remainder of the series, I got into Derks Field free, thanks to Joe Coleman, former Senator.

Coleman didn't just burst on to the scene in 1965, much was expected of the kid. Most of us with graying hair remember that Rick Monday was the first pick of the very first major league baseball amateur draft ever held.

Few remember, however, that Coleman was selected by the Senators with the No. 3 pick, just after the Mets' Les Rohr.

Coleman was terrible for Burlington of the Carolina league that first year, going 2-10, 4.56 in 12 starts. Amazingly, Coleman got a September callup (probably a public relations move by the Senators) and got an opportunity to start two games.

Two amazing games.

Coleman completed both of them, allowing an average of eight base runners per nine innings. In 1966, following a 7-19, 3.75 season at "AA"York, Coleman got the opportunity to pitch another game in Washington.

Again, he pitched a complete game, giving up just six hits and two runs.

In his first 27 major league innings, Coleman allowed a total of four runs.

During the remainder of his time in D.C., Coleman was slightly below average, going 40-50, with a 3.68 ERA. In the next four years with the Tigers, however, Coleman blossomed, going 58-50, with a 3.48 ERA.

His ERA was a little better, but his accomplishments clearly were helped by playing with a much better team.

Following a couple of sub-par years with the Tigers, Coleman became a baseball gypsy, playing with the Cubs, Athletics, Blue Jays, Giants, and Pirates, before finally retiring in 1979 at the young age of just 32.

He was 34 when we met in Salt Lake City.

Baseball has been Joe Coleman's life since his earliest days when he watched his father pitch for the Philadelphia Athletics at Fenway Park.

His father opened a sporting goods store in their home town of Natick after retiring in 1955. The sign read "Joe Coleman & Son" in hopes that Joe Jr. would one day take over the business.

It never happened.

Instead, Coleman followed in his father's other footsteps and became a professional baseball player instead.

His father closed down the store a year or two later.

Was Joe Sr. saddened by his son's decision?

Not in the least.

It was a win-win situation for the elder Coleman. His son could have followed his father into the family business, or he could have followed his father and become a major league pitcher.

Either way, papa Coleman must have been very, very proud.

Trading Derek Norris Could Bring Nationals Badly Needed Starting Pitcher

Farid Rushdi — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:50:52 -0400

You know, it figures.

The Washington Nationals have in their farm system no more than a handful of true position prospects, and of them, only two seem to be of the “can’t miss variety.”

One, Chris Marrero (.284-17-76) is the club’s first baseman of the future and will take his place in D.C. just as soon as he’s ready, probably in 2012.

But the other, catcher Derek Norris (.286-23-84), perhaps the better of the two, is being blocked in Washington by another young and talented catcher, Jesus Flores.

Norris, 20, has improved tremendously at the plate since his rookie season in the Gulf Coast League. Based on a full season, Norris has averaged over the past two years:

AB: 531

R: 96

H: 150

2B: 33

3B: 0

HR: 27

RBI: 98

SB: 13

BB: 122

K: 132

AVG: .286

OBP: .428

SLG: .478

Those are All-Star numbers at any level. Perhaps the most impressive statistic is Norris’ 122 walks and corresponding .428 on-base percentage.

He has power, patience, and good speed for a catcher.

Thebaseballcube.com has a scouting system that looks at a player’s abilities in four key areas—power, speed, contact, and patience—using a 0-100 scale. Here are Norris’ numbers with a similar major leaguer in parenthesis for comparison:

Power: 90 (Carlos Beltran: 90)

Speed: 61 (Alberto Gonzalez: 58)

Contact: 26 (Austin Kearns: 30)

Patience: 100 (Adam Dunn: 98)

There is little doubt that Norris will become a successful major leaguer, and at just 20 this year, will likely be seasoned and ready by the start of the 2012 season.

The problem is that the Nationals’ Jesus Flores will be just 27 in 2012, and just beginning the prime of his career.

Flores had just completed his first full minor league season in 2006, batting .264-21-69 in 429 at-bats for the Mets "A" club in Port St. Lucie, when the Nationals picked him in the Rule V draft that winter.

He was required by rule to remain with the Nationals during the 2007 season, and played well, batting .244-4-25 in 180 at-bats.

Injuries have robbed Flores of close to 200 games over the past two seasons, but he has shown great promise when on the field. Had Flores reached 450 at-bats in 2009, his production would have looked like this:

AB: 450

R: 65

H: 140

2B: 15

3B: 10

HR: 20

RBI: 75

AVG: .301

OBP: .371

SLG: .505

Flores’ thebaseballcube.com numbers, while not as polished as Norris’, are impressive nonetheless:

Power: 86

Speed: 5

Contact: 12

Patience: 12

While Norris has quality credentials, Flores has shown marked improvement and, while he may never win a Gold Glove, he’s going to come close. Last season, Flores had a .993 fielding percentage and threw out 42 percent of would-be base-stealers. Brian Schneider, someone we’re all familiar with and acknowledged to be one of the top fielding catchers in all of baseball, threw out just 34 percent of base runners in 2009.

The Nationals, then, have a quandary. They have Derek Norris, who will one day be a solid major league catcher—and might become one of the best in the league—and they also have Jesus Flores, who is already the second-best offensive catcher in the division.

What should they do?

The last thing the Nationals need is another “maybe” in their future. Norris looks like the real deal, and will likely become a solid major league catcher, perhaps even a star.

But he might not.

Flores has already shown that he is a very good defensive catcher, and offensively, he’ll likely be a .280-20-80 type of producer, and that’s hard to come by from the catching position.

So the Nationals need to trade Derek Norris and trade him this winter.

Norris will never have any higher trade value than he does right now. It’s not often that a minor leaguer shows that type of power production, and I seriously doubt he’ll be able to do it again.

After back-to-back 100-loss seasons, Washington doesn’t have the luxury of looking three years into the future any more. Any actions that aren’t specifically designed to transform this moribund team into a—at the very least—.500 club next year will be useless.

General Manager Mike Rizzo has said several times that the team is looking to add one professional middle infielder, a reliever, and two starting pitchers.

Livan Hernandez can be one of those starters.

Perhaps the second can come via a trade, using Derek Norris as the centerpiece of a multi-player deal. Certainly, Norris and a player on the team’s major league roster—someone like Elijah Dukes—could bring the Nationals a 15-game-winner and a medium prospect in return.

The Nationals could easily replace Dukes with any number of free agents, players like Rick Ankiel, Randy Winn, and Xavier Nady—at least on a short-term basis.

The Nationals gave up two starting players for Lastings Milledge; I am sure that the Nationals could get one solid starting pitcher for two starting players.

I expect this winter to be the busiest of the Nationals’ six offseasons in Washington. With the exceptions of John Lannan, Ryan Zimmerman, and Nyjer Morgan, I doubt there are any “untouchables” on the team. Jesus Flores is also safe, but that’s more the result of his injury history over the past two years.

The team has the opportunity to emerge from the winter meetings much better than they are right now. But to get there, Mike Rizzo and Stan Kasten have to take chances, and trading Derek Norris would certainly fall into that category.

But they have to try. They don’t have a choice.

Livan Hernandez: Tell My Statistics To Shut Up!

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:44:08 -0400

When Livan Hernandez was traded by the Washington Nationals to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2006, it was a clear-cut trade of a dominant veteran for two above average prospects.

The Diamondbacks were in a pennant race, and Livan’s guile and cunning was desperately needed.

When Livan Hernandez rejoined Washington three months ago, he came not as a returning hero but a washed up veteran who rode the waiver wire all the way back to the worst team in baseball.

And no wonder. His record was 7-8 with a monstrous 5.47 ERA with the New York Mets.

It was assumed that his only role was to fill in over the last month of the season as the team’s young pitchers reached their innings limits for the year.

Once the season was over, he would be gone, right? I mean, what hope does a team have of winning a game when their starting pitcher gives up more than five runs?

Well, actually, if Livan Hernandez is that pitcher, they stand a pretty good chance.

A pitcher’s earned run average isn’t static. It's not a guarantee like an interest rate on a money market certificate. Some nights he’ll give up fewer runs than his ERA, and some nights he’ll give up more.

But with Hernandez, that difference between the two is amazing.

I broke down Livan’s 2009 starts into two categories, “winnable” and “no chance of winning.”

Unlike the “quality start,” which requires six innings pitched with no more than three runs allowed, I used more of a sliding scale: five innings with one run allowed, six or seven innings with three runs allowed, and eight or more innings with four runs allowed.

Of his 31 starts, Livan gave his team a real chance to win 19 times while getting clobbered in the other 12 starts.

Take a look at his stats for those 12 “no chance” starts:

IP: 49

H: 94

ER: 69

BB: 22

K: 28

ERA: 12.60

Twelve times he was beaten mercilessly by the opposition, never making it out of the fifthinning. He wasn’t striking anyone out because every pitch was right down the middle of the plate.

He gave up six or more runs in seven of the 11 starts.

But compare those numbers to his 19 successful starts:

IP: 125

H: 105

ER: 39

BB: 38

K: 72

ERA: 2.80

Hernandez averaged seven innings pitched in those games, allowing just five hits, and walking three while striking out four.

He was as close to unhittable.

John Lannan, the Nationals' presumptive ace, started 33 games this season and put the team in a position to win 20 times, just one more than Hernandez.

Lannan’s ERA was 3.88, more than 1.6 fewer runs per game allowed than Livan.

Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals’ ace and the likely National League Cy Young Award winner, had a 17-4 record in 2009 with a miniscule 2.24 ERA.

He gave the Cardinals 23 chances to win, just four more than Hernandez, while allowing 3.23 fewer runs per game.

You would think that a three-run-per-game difference would be worth more than just four quality starts.

Chris Volstad, who had a 9-13, 5.21 record for the Florida Marlins (and had overall statistics similar to Livan), was able to garner just 14 “successful” starts, five fewer than Hernandez in about the same number of outings.

Livan Hernandez is an anomaly. His statistics indicate a pretty bad pitcher, but his number of successful starts is almost identical to quality pitchers like John Lannan and not too far behind aces like Chris Carpenter.

And when compared to pitchers with similar earned run averages like Chris Volstad, he has far more successful starts.

If a pitcher is going to lose, does it really matter if he loses 3-2 or 12-0? I mean, a loss is a loss. What is more important is how often he pitches well enough to win.

And Livan does just that far more often that one would assume.

The Nationals hope to sign two starting pitchers this offseason, and general manager Mike Rizzo has already indicated some interest in Hernandez for 2010.

He would be an ideal fifth starter and should win at least 10 games, looking sharp in all of them.

But please, don’t watch his other starts. It gets really ugly.

In Review: The 2009 Washington Nationals Starting Lineup

Farid Rushdi — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:28:47 -0400

Okay, the 2009 season is finally over.

Now what?

Although the Nationals’ 59-103 record was the worst in all of baseball—and for the second year in a row, no less—the surprising number of good things that happened this year will make the off-season a time for building, and not rebuilding.

Let’s take a look at the final statistics for the Nationals’ starting lineup and see who did, and didn’t, help the Nationals in 2009:

1B: Adam Dunn

.267-38-105 (.398 OBP, 175 strikeouts, 116 walks)

Dunn’s offensive numbers were far better than most of us projected them to be. With the exception of the last two weeks of the season, he was consistent and provided the big bat in the middle of the lineup that the Nationals so desperately needed.

Defensively, Dunn’s fielding average at first was .986, six points below the league average. That said, it was only three points below Nick Johnson’s, the man he replaced. He will never be a defensive standout, but he has shown he can be competent at first base.

And with his big bat, that’s all he really needs to be to help the Nationals.

2B: Alberto Gonzalez

.265-1-33 (.299 OBP)

Gonzalez is a placeholder at second base until a trade—or a free agent signing—brushes him aside.

His offensive numbers would certainly be good enough were it not for his abysmal on-base percentage and on-again, off-again defensive ability.

If the Nationals can upgrade second base with a proven major league infielder, Gonzalez should return to the bench, where he can be a valuable and versatile utility player.

If, however, Gonzalez is still in the running for a starting job come next spring, the Nationals are in for another very long season.

SS: Cristian Guzman

.284-6-52 (.306 slugging percentage)

Guzman’s .284 batting average is very solid for a shortstop. Sadly, it’s all downhill from there for the 31-year-old veteran. His .306 on-base percentage is terrible. Guzman’s slugging percentage dropped a full 50 points from last season to .390.

And defensively, Guzman, once a premier defender, committed 20 errors and had a fielding percentage 12 points lower than the league average.

In other words, he has no real value anymore. After watching Ian Desmond over the last few weeks of the season, Guzman’s flaws, once hidden by the apathy of the long and losing season, have become quite obvious.

I seriously doubt that he will be the starting shortstop next year for the Nationals. Though he has publicly said he doesn’t want to, he’ll likely slide over to second in 2010, opening up short for Desmond or a professional shortstop acquired in a trade or via free agency.

With one year remaining on his $8 million contract, it will be difficult to trade Guzman, but if the team is willing to eat part of his salary, a trade can be made.

3B: Ryan Zimmerman

.292-33-106 (.364 OBP, .565 SLG)

This was the year Nationals’ fans have been waiting for. After a superb rookie season, Zimmerman’s offensive numbers seemed to have stagnated—perhaps even slid a bit—and that perhaps Ryan was destined to be a Gold Glove defender with a “good enough” bat.

However, by season’s end, Zimmerman emerged as a true star.

Defensively, he is deserving of his first Gold Glove. It was announced this morning that Zimmerman had the most total points in the ESPN Web Gems race, as well as the most number of appearances.

He cut down his errors this year, stopped airmailing his throws, and had his best defensive year since 2006.

Ryan Zimmerman has grown into “the face of the franchise.”

LF: Josh Willingham

.260-24-61 (.367 OBP, .496 SLG)

162 game projection: .261-31-80

This was a season of ups-and-downs for the 30-year-old. After starting the year as a reserve deep on the bench, and then hitting two grand slams in one game and getting his batting average above .290, Willingham settled in and had a typical Willingham-esque season: good power and RBI production with a soft batting average and adequate defense.

Willingham is consistent and professional. He will carry the Nationals for a few weeks when he gets hot, but he is not in the same class as Zimmerman and Dunn.

Then again, the Nationals don’t need him to be.

Willingham is a complimentary player who is “good enough” in all offensive categories to be a valuable starting player.

Defensively, his lack of speed makes him a liability for balls hit into the alley. Well, that would be the case were it not for the fact that Nyjer Morgan plays center and is able to get to most balls that Willingham can’t reach.

CF: Nyjer Morgan

With Pittsburgh: .277-2-27 (18 steals, .351 OBP), with Washington: .351-1-12 (24 steals, .396 OBP)

2009 Total: .307-3-39 (.369 OBP, 42 steals)

Baseball is a very funny game. The Nationals won 59 games without Adam Dunn in 2008 and they won 59 games with him this year. A $10 million a year slugger didn’t make any difference at all.

But the acquisition of Nyjer Morgan in June helped the team greatly. The Nationals were 24-28 with Morgan in 2009 and just 35-75 without him. And the Pirates were 36-41 before they traded Morgan and 26-58 afterwards.

Sometimes difference makers don’t come with gaudy statistics.

Though Morgan hit .286 in parts of three seasons with Pittsburgh, he wasn’t considered as anything more than a complementary player. He had an adequate on-base percentage, no power, and was thrown out 40% of the time when trying to steal.

He was considered an above-average outfielder but played exclusively in left for the Pirates.

But after the trade, Morgan excelled with the Nationals. He added energy to an otherwise moribund lineup. He used his speed to force errors on the base paths and looked more like an acrobat than a center fielder on defense.

It was almost as if he willed his team to victory. The Nationals and Pirates were a combined nine games under .500 with Morgan and 72 games under .500 without him.

This sounds strange to say, but the Nationals need to build their team around Morgan and not Ryan Zimmerman or Adam Dunn.

RF: Elijah Dukes

.250-8-58 (.337 OBP, .393 SLG)

162 Game Projection: .250-12-87

This wasn’t a very good season for Dukes, who was coming off a .264-13-44 campaign in 2008 (.264-26-88 projected over an entire year). Every measurable level of offensive production dropped significantly in 2009.

I fully expected Dukes to blossom into a solid contributor this season, hitting somewhere in the range of .280-30-100 with 25 stolen bases while playing stellar defense. It didn’t happen.

While Dukes’ strikeout ratio dropped from 28% in 2008 to 20% this year, his OPS dropped more than 50 points. He’s making better contact but he’s not driving the ball.

Mike Rizzo said on Monday that he believes that Dukes should be the team’s starting right fielder in 2010, and that he drives in a lot of runs given his low batting average.

It was a luke-warm vote of confidence.

My guess is that there are two possibilities regarding Dukes in 2010. He will either have a breakout season and become an integral part of the Nationals for years to come, or he will be demoted, or traded, or released, never to be heard from again.

C: Wil Nieves and Josh Bard

243-7-57

When Jesus Flores was lost for the season after just 29 games, Washington was forced to play the majority of the year with two backup catchers. While Wil Nieves and Josh Bard played well, the Nationals desperately missed Flores’ emerging bat.

Flores, 24, was on pace to bat .301-20-75 and would have anchored the lower part of the lineup. His defense continues to improve and one day soon—if he is ever able to remain healthy—will become one of the best all around catchers in the National League.

We’ll take a look at the pitching staff tomorrow.

Does Justin Maxwell Have The Time & Talent to Become a Starter In D.C.?

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 21:29:21 -0400

Francisco Rodriguez has been a premier closer (perhaps the premier closer) in all of baseball over the last six years. Since 2004, "K Rod" has saved 206 games and crafted a stunning 2.20 ERA during that span.

Justin Maxwell has shown flashes of brilliance around his periods of ineptness, but hasn't indicated any real ability to become an everyday major leaguer.

Since being recalled from "AA" Harrisburg in 2007, Maxwell has a 162-game average of just .245-13-26 with a .317 on-base percentage.

So when Maxwell stepped into the box on Wednesday with the bases loaded and two outs, the fireworks should have been boxed up and stored away for 2010.

Move on, folks; nothing to see here.

Rodriguez, who has struck out 12 for every nine innings pitched, should have easily fanned Maxwell, who has struck out 443 times in 405 professional games.

But, thanks in part to Maxwell's plate discipline, but mostly because Rodriguez was having difficulty throwing strikes, the count worked to 3-2, forcing "K-Rod" to throw a fastball down the middle.

Grand Slam. Walk-off win. Good night and thanks for coming, folks.

While it was a wonderful scene to behold, and the moment will be forever etched in Maxwell's memory, did it change anything? Is Maxwell now any closer to being an integral part of the Nationals' future?

It has been five seasons since the University of Maryland product was drafted by the Nationals, and I don't think his future is any clearer today than it was that day in June.

After picking Zimmerman with the fourth overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft, the Washington Nationals had to wait until the fourth round to make their next selection.

The Nationals' second round selection went to the Colorado Rockies for the team's signing of third baseman Vinny Castilla, and the third round pick went to the Minnesota Twins for their loss of free agent Cristian Guzman.

Daniel Carte, the player the Rockies selected, batted .214-5-28 for "A" Tulsa last season and pitcher Brian Duensing, selected by the Twins, was 4-6, 4.66 for "AAA" Rochester.

The Nationals chose Justin Maxwell with the team's second overall pick, taken in the fourth round of the draft.

Maxwell, who graduated from the University of Maryland that spring, had rebuffed the team's efforts to sign him because of the contract's structure and not its financial considerations.

Team officials described the negotiations as "amicable." My guess is the contract addressed his injury plagued seasons of 2004 and 2005 with the Terrapins.

Injuries robbed Maxwell of what would have been a sure first-round selection. An inside fastball during spring practice in 2004 broke a bone in his forearm, forcing him to miss the entire season.

He tried to play in the Cape-Cod League that summer but broke a finger, effectively ending his season.

Seven games into his senior season he broke a bone in his hand, ending his amateur career.

Maxwell has distinguished himself at every level he has played. In the the Cape-Cod League in 2004, he hit .307 with 47 hits and two home runs.

In his abbreviated 2005 season at Maryland, the 6'5", 220 lb outfielder batted .455 with three home runs and 10 RBI.

His talent was well known to most scouts and general managers in the major leagues.

He was drafted in 2001 by the Orioles, and again in 2004 by the Rangers.

Scout Grady Fuson called Maxwell "...one of the top college players" in 2004 and said that Maxwell "could very well be one of our most important selections in some time."

Maxwell didn't sign with the Rangers.

Maxwell is both powerful and fast and has been compared to former Met great Darryl Strawberry.

His swing has a high arc, allowing him to not only drive balls, but drive them very high and very deep.

Defensively, he was major league ready the day he first played college ball, according to a scout from the Orioles' organization.

While his physical tools might be compared to Strawberry, his personality is more like Cal Ripken, which is good for him and great for the organization.

Sean Welsh, GM of the Bourne Braves, a summer-league team Maxwell played for several years ago, said that he's as apt to be reading his Bible in the clubhouse as he is sanding his bats in preparation for the next day's game.

In four minor league seasons, Maxwell has averaged .257-17-70 with 36 steals over a 500 at-bat season. He has a career .351 on-base percentage and a .442 slugging percentage.

His Thebaseballcube.com scouting numbers are very impressive as well. These are based on a maximum of 100 points: Power: 93, Speed: 91, Contact: 22, Patience: 76.

He compares favorably to Alfonso Soriano in power (94), speed (94), and patience (13). Soriano is just a bit better in making contact (31).

Maxwell received a September call-up in 2007, and impressed, batting .269 with two home runs, one a grand slam, in just 26 at-bats. He just missed a third homer that reached the fence in the deepest part of RFK Stadium's massive outfield.

The concern with Maxwell is his health.

At times, he has reminded Nationals' fans of Nick Johnson, which is not a good thing. In 2008, Maxwell played just 43 games for "AA" Harrisburg before a hand and wrist injury ended his season. This season, however, he had no significant health issues.

Maxwell will be 26 next season, too old to return to the minor leagues (and still be considered a prospect), but there really isn't a place on the major league roster for him either, especially with the breakout September of the more versatile Mike Morse.

If he stays healthy, he could become a 20-20 type player for the next decade, with stellar defense and a lower-than-hoped-for batting average.

He reminds me a lot of the Brewers' Mike Cameron, who has a career average of .250-23-82 with 26 steals and near Gold Glove defense.

And that's a good comparison for Maxwell.

The question is, will he remain healthy, and will he show the Nationals enough to allow him to become a starting outfielder here in Washington?

The jury is out, at least for another season.

Putting a Number on How Many Major Leaguers Are in the Nationals' Farm System

Farid Rushdi — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 12:39:16 -0400

Over the past week or two, I have been poring over the Nationals' 2009 minor league statistics in preparation for a series of articles that will start when the season finally (and thankfully) comes to an end.

I began to feel much better about the state of the team's minor league system and began to count the players that—based on stats and comments by team management—seem capable of succeeding at the major league level.

I got to 16, though by no means is this list totally inclusive.

Stephen Strasburg, Colin Balester, Jack McGeary, Jeff Smoker, Brad Meyers, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Burgess, Chris Marrero, Justin Maxwell, Shairon Martis, Destin Hood, Derick Norris, P.J. Ramirez, Ian Desmond, Ross Detweiler and Drew Storen.

That's 16 out of roughly 150 players (not counting the Dominican teams), not exactly a large number to be sure.

I then compared the current Nationals with the farm clubs of three other teams from 2000, the Expos, Yankees, and Braves.

I was trying to see how many players each team had seven years ago that made it to the major leagues and made some contribution. I didn't count guys who failed; only those who either started or was valuable as a reserve player:

Atlanta Braves: (8) Wes Helms, Mark De Rosa, Marcus Giles, Jason Marquis, Ryan Langerhans, Rafael Furcal, Horacio Ramirez, and Wilson Betemit

New York Yankees: (6) Ted Lilly, Alfonso Soriano, Zach Day (stretching my parameters just a bit), Juan Rivera, Brandon Claussen, Wily Mo Pena, and Chien Ming Wang.

Montreal Expos: (9) Tony Armas, Milton Bradley, Brian Schneider, Joey Eischen, Brad Wilkerson, Jamey Carroll, Brandon Phillips, Shawn Hill, and Grady Sizemore.

So it would seem that at any given time, there are about seven to eight players in any given minor league system that will make it to the major leagues and produce.

What does that mean for the Nationals?

If a well-stocked farm system is going to produce seven players, then one like the Nationals, better than it was but still not fully productive, will probably produce four or five.

And the 16 I counted didn't include several others who were considered real prospects just a year or so ago, players like Kory Casto, Adam Carr, and Leonard Davis.

I could probably make a case that 25-30 Nationals’ players have the potential to become major league players. A little more digging at baseball-reference.com found that roughly 20 percent of true prospects have a productive major league career.

So if the Nationals have 30 players considered to be talented, we would then expect roughly six of them to play in Washington one day.

The level with the fewest major league prospects—and this seems to be league wide—was in the rookie leagues, where many of the Nationals' prospects played over the last couple of seasons.

That's not terribly promising for the here and now.

Without a doubt, the Nationals' future is much brighter today than it was a year or two ago. That said, we can't assume that each one of these promising kids is going to make it to Washington one day.

Which ones might make it?

It's hard to say. I'd guess that two out of the Marrero-Maxwell-Burgess-Norris-Hood-Desmond group and four among Strasburg, Balester, McGeary, Smoker, Zimmermann, Martis, Storen, and Detwiler will have some impact at the major league level, be it with the Nationals or another organization.

Of course, help is on the way as the Nationals again have the dubious honor of choosing first in next year’s amateur draft, and will likely draft phenom Bryce Harper with the top pick.

But all of this is just a guess. Unlike the NFL and NBA, projecting baseball players is more art than science. For every Stephen Strasburg who makes it there is someone like Derrick Norris who comes out of nowhere and seems destined for stardom.

Giving the Bird to Baltimore

Farid Rushdi — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 22:51:20 -0400

Now that baseball has returned to Washington, and the Nationals have a new stadium and real hope for the future, it's time to proclaim once and for all that Baltimore is for the birds.

As a young man growing up in D.C., Baltimore was strictly "second-city." After all, Washington had NATIONAL Airport; Baltimore had Friendship Airport.

Our city was named after the man who won the Revolutionary War.

Their city was named after a British Lord, and according to my Fairfax County Public Schools education; they're the guys who lost the war.

My first trip into Baltimore was in 1964. I remember vividly the Baltimore City clock tower. It had these big black block letters across its face, and as I stared through the windshield of my Father's Buick Wildcat, the words became readable. "Bromo Seltzer."

Bromo Seltzer?? "Dad," I asked, "Why did Baltimore put 'Bromo Seltzer' on their city clock?"

"Because," my Dad intoned, with that rich, reassuring voice that all fathers had in the early '60s, "It's a reminder to take the medicine because living in Baltimore makes you sick."

Now, that's not why I disliked Baltimore. It was the Orioles.

The Senators invited them to leave St. Louis and play in our back yard, and they repaid us by beating the snot out of us every time we played. The Orioles would trade for Frank Robinson and the Senators would trade for Greg Goosen.

Sigh...

In 1969, the Senators won 86 games and were competitive the entire year. The Orioles won 20 games more and went to the World Series.

In baseball, Washington was the weak sister. When Robert Short did to Washington what he did to Minneapolis a dozen years earlier, I was crushed (I'll bet you didn't know Short was the Lakers owner who moved them to Los Angeles).

But even Robert Short's "Texas two-step" couldn't make me an Oriole fan. For five years, I rooted for the Redskins and the Bullets, and spent my summers at Virginia Beach.

But things changed in 1976.

Her name was Sharon. Having dated many girls, Sharon was the first "woman" I had gone out with. I had known her throughout high school and we had been friends, but I was never considered to be in her "league."

I never understood what the words voluptuous and buxom meant until I met Sharon. She was curvy and dreamy, and had flame red head and more freckles on her face than there were stars in the sky.

She oozed sexuality and sensuality. Me? I just oozed.

She was an avid Oriole fan, and wanted to see a game in Baltimore.

Hmmmm. Hatred of the Orioles vs. a vivacious redhead (actually, the decision was closer than you'd think).

Just a few days before our country's Bi-centennial, Sharon and I zipped down the parkway towards Baltimore in her yellow Volkswagen Beetle convertible. I had a great time until we pulled into the Memorial Stadium parking lot. I got kind of clammy.

My stomach began to hurt.

There before me was Memorial Stadium. It was nothing like RFK.

Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium was (at this time) sleek and modern, and Memorial Stadium looked out of date, with its brick façade and 1930s brushed aluminum lettering.

I kept muttering to myself, "vivacious redhead...vivacious redhead" as we walked into the stadium.

I still don't get it more than 30 years later. There, in the middle of a large urban city, sitting among 35,000 people, the loudspeakers blared John Denver's "Thank God I'm A Country Boy" between innings. I Didn't see a single country boy in the stands.

And people from Baltimore must like the sun, because there was no roof on the stadium and I boiled like a crab from the harbor.

Oh, and the game stunk. Reggie Jackson hit two home runs and Doug DeCinces made a couple of good defensive plays, but the O's lost 14-6 to the Angels.

But I couldn't watch the game. I just couldn't. All around me were these giant Oriole bird faces with huge grins, staring right at me!

They were laughing at me because Baltimore had a baseball team and I didn't. When we got home, the redhead wasn't feeling very vivacious because her team had lost, and she asked me to leave so she could "rest."

Crap.

The Orioles were even destroying my love life!

I had to get away from that stupid bird. I moved to Pocatello, Idaho, 18 years ago, where I didn't have to see that beaky bird mocking my misfortune.

Alas, the wrongs of the world have been righted with baseball again being part of my life. This time, at least, the Orioles too have their modern day equivalents of Greg Goosen and Jim French and Dick Billings.

And just as Sir Peter feared, the Orioles will be but a postscript in Washington history.

Way back there, in the deep recesses of Washington's memory junk pile, next to the A, B & W Bus company, People's Drug Stores and Glen Echo Amusement Park, will be the faint odor of those Birds from Baltimore.

Thirty years from now, a young boy will dig up an old picture of his dad wearing an Oriole's cap and, with tears in his eyes, ask "Why?"

"Son," the dad will begin, using lyrics from a song that rocked D.C. the summer of the Senators greatest year, 'If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with.'"

Baltimore, we were lonely. We're not lonely anymore.

Deal with it.

Facing Bleak Future, Washington Nationals Must Re-sign Adam Dunn

Farid Rushdi — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 16:06:19 -0400

Should the Washington Nationals try to sign Adam Dunn to a multiyear contract during the offseason?

Dunn, who signed a two-year, $20 million deal last February, was willing to sign a longer contract, but someone—maybe owner Ted Lerner, perhaps team president Stan Kasten—said no.

Bill Ladson, beat writer for nationals.com, wrote this week that if given the chance he would trade Dunn for prospects.

General Manager Mike Rizzo will no doubt receive many calls this offseason from teams in need of a generational slugger.

The Nationals, then, have four options regarding their slugging first baseman. They can extend his contract and make him an important piece of the team’s future. They can trade him during the offseason to a contending team in need of a middle-of-the-lineup bat.

They can trade him at next year’s July 31st trading deadline. And finally, the Nationals can let him leave as a free agent after the season and grab the compensation pick(s).

So what to do?

Many teams would love to add Adam Dunn to their lineup, but three, the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels, could really use him and can afford him.

Though very happy with Mark Teixiera at first base, the Yankees used 35-year-old Hideki Matsui as the team’s designated hitter this season, and though his production is still good enough, he is in the last year of his contract and I doubt the Yankees will want to resign him due to his age and health issues.

David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox, who is experiencing his second bad year in a row, is likely going to be playing somewhere else in 2010 (though he is under contract through next year).

Always having to fight off the Yankees, Boston can’t have a designated hitter hitting .234 with a .325 on-base percentage and hope to win their division.

And the Angels, who seem to quietly win the American League West every year, will almost certainly be parting ways with Vladimir Guerrero after this season. Guerrero, in the last year of his contract, is 34 and has produced just 15 homers and 47 RBI this year.

All three teams have rich farm systems, but what would they be willing to give up for a player with just one more year on his contract? I would guess the Nationals might get a ‘AAA’ prospect—a good one but not great—and a promising player in the lower minor leagues, along with an organizational type player.

I’m just not sure that is enough, though.

Another option would be to trade Dunn during the season to a contending team that needs a slugger. But Dunn would be little more than a two-month rental, and teams aren’t as apt to offer top prospects for short-term fixes anymore.

The days of Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell are all but over.

Just two years ago, the Cincinnati Reds, knowing they had no chance of signing Dunn to a long-term deal, shipped their slugger to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were on the periphery of a pennant race that year.

They received three players, pitchers Micah Owings and Dallas Buck, and outfielder Wilkin Castillo.

Owings, who had shown some promise with Arizona, is 7-12, 5.26 with the Reds this season. Buck pitched poorly for the Reds’ ‘AA’ affiliate this year and Castillo batted .221 for ‘AAA’ Louisville with a .234 on-base percentage.

In other words, the Reds gave up a future Hall of Famer for three players who will likely never make an impact at the major league level.

And that was the best deal they could find.

Another option would be to do nothing and allow Dunn to leave as a free agent after the 2010 season. As mentioned, if the Nationals offered Dunn arbitration and he turned it down, the team would receive two compensatory picks for their loss.

However, if he accepted arbitration, the team would have him under contract for another year, but at a price much higher than the $10 million he’s currently earning. And seeing as the Nationals could have had him for that third year for $10 million, arbitration doesn’t seem to make sense for Washington, at least financially.

That leaves the final option of signing Dunn to a long-term contract.

Dunn will be 30 next season and at an age where he likely won’t be part of the franchise when it finally becomes a winner. That, of course, assumes the Nationals are still committed to “The Plan” of building their team using their now percolating farm system.

Of course, “The Plan” has gone the way of health care reform’s “public option.”

Josh Willingham will be 31 next season and Nyjer Morgan will be 30. Cristian Guzman will be 32.

When the Nationals take the field next spring, half of their starting lineup will be age 30 or older, not exactly what Stan Kasten had in mind when he conceived his youth movement two years ago.

Not signing Dunn, then, makes no sense. One less 30-year-old does not a young team make.

The Nationals control Willingham for two more years and Morgan for three. Wouldn’t it make more sense to extend Dunn’s contract and keep the lineup intact?

Here are the 162-game averages of the players likely to return in 2010:

CF—Nyjer Morgan: .303-3-40 (.361 OBP) 42 steals

SS—Cristian Guzman: .272-8-55 (.307 OBP)

3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .284-25-100 (.346 OBP)

1B—Adam Dunn: .250-40-100 (.384 OBP)

LF—Josh Willingham: .267-26-84 (.365 OBP)

RF—Elijah Dukes: .260-19-91 (.351 OBP)

C—Jesus Flores: .266-17-101 (.361 OBP)

2B—Who knows?

With Dunn, all that stands between the Nationals and a .500 type of season—maybe better—is a competent second baseman, two starting pitchers (one if they resign Livan Hernandez) and one or two quality relievers.

Three or four players can help turn the team around.

If, however, Dunn is traded, the remaining pieces just aren’t strong enough to win more than 70-75 games.

Adam Dunn is a lot like Ryan Zimmerman in that neither put money, or fame, above winning. Zimmerman waited to sign his long-term contract until he was sure the Nationals were heading in the right direction.

Dunn would likely do the same if he felt comfortable that the 100-loss seasons were a thing of the past. Zimmerman recently told Washington Post columnist Tom Boswell that Dunn likes playing in Washington and said that "I wouldn't be surprised if he stays here the rest of his career."

How much would Dunn cost? I’d say four years and $52 million would be about right.

Jordan Zimmermann will return late next year. Stephen Strasburg will be in the rotation by then as well. Drew Storen should be the closer. Add the ever competent John Lannan, a Livan-type veteran and one of the team’s many pitching prospects, and 2011 could be a turnaround year for the Washington Nationals.

That is, if Adam Dunn is still with the team.

2010 Nationals: Change We Can Believe In?

Farid Rushdi — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:53:44 -0400

Last November, a little more than half of all Americans believed that Barack Obama was the answer to the problems plaguing America. The only way to succeed, they thought, was Obama’s sweeping agenda.

The rest of the country, however, saw the nation’s foundation as generally solid, and all it would take to regain America’s greatness was some general refinement in the way we ran our government.

At this point, no one is exactly sure how that road to prosperity should look. Would John McCain’s idea of a simple repavement, or Barak Obama’s vision of an entirely new road, be the right choice?

Time will tell.

The same type of quandary applies to the Washington Nationals.

Is the team so bad that it needs to be blown up and reconstructed using a new version of “The Plan,” or will a little seasoning, spiced with some fortuitous free agent signings, be the way to go?

At their current pace, the Nationals will finish the season at 55-107, a much better team than last year but with a worse record.

And that’s pretty hard to do.

If that kind of record, especially two years running, isn’t justification for the baseball version of the nuclear option, nothing is.

That said, if they were to get blown up, who would have to go? With the exception of second base and—perhaps—right field, the Nationals field a very professional, very acceptable lineup.

Many teams would love to have catcher Jesus Flores, first baseman Adam Dunn, third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, left fielder Josh Willingham and center fielder Nyjer Morgan in their lineups, and could certainly live with shortstop Cristian Guzman and right fielder Elijah Dukes as complimentary players.

Injuries have again taken their toll, but a little health, and a little luck, should return a fairly potent offense in 2010.

And the bullpen, by far the worst I’ve ever seen in my lifetime, has been skillfully transformed into an acceptable group by General Manager Mike Rizzo.

Three of the regular relievers, Mike MacDougal, Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard, all have ERA’s in the 3.00 range and Ron Villone’s ERA is in the low 4.00’s. Only two relievers, Jason Bergman and Saul Rivera, are pitching poorly at this point in the season.

MacDougal has done a yeoman’s job as closer, but with the up-and-coming Drew Storen just months away from the major leagues, MacDougal will become a solid setup man for Washington.

So, if the Nationals were to sign two quality relievers over the winter, the team should feel comfortable that the bullpen will be sound in 2010.

The pivot point, then, for the Nationals going from worst to respectable lies in their starting pitching.

As of this moment, the only certainty in the 2010 rotation will be lefty John Lannan, who’s 9-12, 4.07 2009 season looks a lot like last year’s 9-15, 3.92 effort. Though he is the team’s ace, he’s not an ace; Lannan is a solid number-three starter, and seems to be about as good as he’ll ever be.

Other than him, it’s a crapshoot for next year.

Top prospect Jordan Zimmermann will be back at the end of next season at the earliest. Craig Stammen’s surgery was less invasive but his 4-7, 5.11 record this year might not be good enough allow him the chance to compete for a rotation spot in 2010.

That said, Stammen might be perfect for the Nationals’ bullpen next year. Stammen is deadly the first two times through the lineup before getting rocked and knocked out by the 6^th inning. He would be an ideal middle-relief guy, pitching a couple of innings here and there.

A big question will be what the Nationals will do with Scott Olson, whose shoulder injury caused him to have by far his worst year of his career, and then had that bad year cut short by season ending surgery.

He could come back and win a dozen games in 2010, something he’s done before in his career, or the Nationals might cut ties with him as they did Chad Cordero two seasons ago.

J. D. Martin, the player Cleveland chose in the amateur draft as their compensation pick for the loss of Manny Ramirez, has done well in his first stint in the major leagues.

Martin, 26, is now 5-4, 4.21 in 12 starts, and he’s actually getting better as he gains experience. In his last five starts, Martin has allowed just 11 runs for a nifty 3.41 ERA.

Also ran’s for the rotation include Garrett Mock (3-9, 5.83) and Ross Detwiler (0-6, 5.80).

Perhaps the Nationals’ best hope for reaching respectability in 2010 will hinge on the resigning of Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez, who has won 155 games in his career, has already expressed a desire to sign with the Nationals, and can be counted on to win 12 games from the back of the rotation.

I think that the triumvirate of Lannan, Hernandez and Martin could easily win 34 games, and with the typical major league bullpen winning roughly 20 games in a season, so if the three other, as yet unnamed starters could win a combined 27 games, the Nationals would be a .500 team in 2010.

Of course, nothing every goes according to plan, and this mythical leap to 81 wins will be difficult.

That said, if the Nationals pick up a professional second baseman, someone like Orlando Hudson, and if the Nationals pick up one profession starting pitcher, someone like Jason Marquis, and if the Nationals pick up one more quality relief pitcher, the Nationals should improve in 2010.

The question will be, of course, is how committed the team will be to a quick-fix in 2010. They certainly will have the money. With more than $23 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of this year, the Nationals can sign the aforementioned second baseman and starting pitcher and not raise their payroll a penny.

For the sake of the baseball’s future in Washington, the Nationals have to be, have to be, a competitive team in 2010. Stan Kasten knows it, and so does the Lerner family.

My guess is that for the first time since buying the team, the front office will have a no-holds-barred mentality when the free agent and trade markets open this winter.

It’s time to step up to the plate, and I think the Nationals won’t let us down.

At least, for their own sake, they had better not.

D.C. Scandal: Senators Owner Turned Down Trades For Nolan Ryan, Catfish Hunter

Farid Rushdi — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:26:42 -0400

All Washington baseball fans, whether they were alive at the time or not, know the story of the magical year of 1969, when Ted Williams led a group of fair-to-middling baseball players to an 86-76 record, coming within just one game of third place in the American League’s new Eastern Division.

It had been a quarter-century since Washington fans had experienced a winning season, and they flocked to the then still-new RFK Stadium, hoping to attach themselves vicariously to the miracle that was beginning to blossom on East Capitol Street.

More than 916,000 fans watched the Senators play baseball that year, the seventh highest number in the American League, and all the while paying what was by far the highest ticket prices in the Major Leagues.

Those tickets were more than the New York Yankees, more than the Boston Red Sox and more than the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Half the talent at twice the price. Only in Washington.

No one expected that twenty-one game increase in the win column in 1969. The team featured the same basic roster as the previous year, but several of those returning players had career years that helped propel the Senators toward their historical season.

Ken McMullen, a third baseman obtained with Frank Howard from the Dodgers for pitcher Claude Osteen a few years earlier, was known as a solid glove man with an average bat.

In his four years with the Senators, he had averaged .247-16-59 while batting third in the lineup. But he blossomed in ’69, hitting .272-19-87 while continuing to be a superb fielder.

Shortstop Eddie Brinkman was such a bad hitter that new manager Ted Williams had toyed with the idea of returning him to the pitcher’s mound where he excelled for the University of Cincinnati a decade earlier.

A founding member of the expansion Senators, Brinkman had failed to hit above .200 in five of his first eight years with the club, and never hit above .229.

A stellar defender, he only needed to hit close to .240 to become a solid major league shortstop.

A special project of manager Ted Williams, he listened and he learned.

Brinkman walked into the batter’s box on Opening Day against the Yankees carrying a bottle bat, a traditional bat but with an extra thick handle, something that hadn’t been seen in the majors since the Second World War.

Thanks to Williams' tutelage, Brinkman finished the season with a .266 batting average and continued his flawless fielding.

Del Unser, who finished second in Rookie-of-the-Year voting in 1968, batted .286-8-57, played center field like a ten-year veteran, and tied Brooks Robinson for 23rd place in the Most Valuable Player Award voting.

But while those players made a difference, the real difference maker in the group was first baseman Mike Epstein, who the Senators received in a 1967 trade with the Baltimore Orioles for reliever Pete Richert.

Though he was always considered a true prospect in Baltimore, Epstein was never going to supplant Baltimore favorite Boog Powell at first, thus forcing the trade to Washington.

Epstein, who batted just .234-13-33 in 1968, provided the Senators with a badly needed second power bat, hitting .278-30-85 in just 403 at bats while walking 85 times, garnering a .414 on-base percentage.

These players, along with Frank Howard (.296-48-111) and a healthy Dick Bosman (14-5, 2.19), were the leaders of the very good 1969 Senators’ team.

Williams sat down with owner Bob Short at the end of the season and laid out a very succinct plan on how to build on the team’s success. The Senators should, he told Short, trade several of the team’s veteran players, each for two or three major league ready prospects.

The team may take a step back in 1970, Williams warned, but they would be in a position to contend by 1972 or 1973.

Short assured Williams he would do just that, but instead spent the winter turning down many deals that would have brought the Senators those very players that Williams' craved.

The owner, however, believed that he couldn’t make those type of trades, at last not then. Short, the former head of the Democratic National Committee, had called in favors banked during his years in politics and borrowed a great portion of the $9 million needed to purchase the Senators.

He was afraid that if he traded one or more of his marquee players, perhaps Epstein or McMullen, the Senators would suffer at the gate, which at that time was the vast majority of the team’s income. His radio contract wasn’t particularly lucrative and WTOP Channel 9 only broadcast 20 games a year.

So he did nothing.

The 1970 Senators featured the same basic lineup as the previous year. Ultimately, he did trade some of those marquee players, partly because of their salaries, partly because they were having down years, but mostly because—I believe—he was paving the way to justify his moving the Senators to Texas.

But what if he had made those trades in the winter of 1969? What if Short had taken a chance and built the Senators then as the Nationals are trying to do now?

In his book, Ted Williams and the 1969 Season, Ted Leavengood listed several trades that were not just rumored but were concrete offers by other teams for several Senators’ players, all turned down by Short.

Mike Epstein was one of the hottest commodities at the 1969 Winter Meetings, and both the Yankees and the Oakland Athletics tried to pry him away from Washington.

The Yankees, seeing the public relations value of having a Jewish slugger on their team—Epstein’s nickname was “SuperJew”—offered lefty Fritz Peterson for the Senators’ slugger. Peterson, just 26, had won 12 games in 1968 and 17 in ’69 with an ERA of just above 3.00.

Bob Short said no.

Peterson finished his career with 133 wins, including 20 in 1970, with a 3.40 ERA.

Athletics’ owner Charley Finley then came calling, offering 23-year-old Catfish Hunter for Epstein, who had already won 55 major league games.

Again, Bob Short said no.

Hunter is a Hall-of-Fame pitcher who won 224 games in his career—including 20 five times—with a 3.26 ERA. He was an eight-time all-star and an ERA champion. He was also one of the best hitting pitchers in the American League.

Two years later, coming off back-to-back disappointing years, Short traded Epstein—along with All-Star closer Darold Knowles—to the Athletics for journeyman first baseman Don Mincher, catcher Frank Fernandez and reliever Paul Linblad.

Mike Epstein was out of baseball three years later at the age of 31.

In other words, he waited too long.

The Senators had a young slugger in 1969 by the name of Brant Alyea, who hit 10 home runs in part-time duty by the All-Star break. Though he would hit only one more that year, Calvin Griffith, owner of the Minnesota Twins, was enamored with his good looks and powerful stroke.

He had offered Short third baseman Craig Nettles, who had shown some promise in parts of three major league seasons. Though major league scouts roundly believed that Nettles would one day become an all-star, and though those same scouts saw major flaws in Alyea’s looping swing (think Austin Kearns, here), Short said no.

Griffith ended up trading Nettles that off-season to Cleveland in an eight-player trade that netted Minnesota Luis Tiant, a career 229 game winner.

Nettles, in his first full season as a major leaguer, hit 26 homers in 1970 and played defense equal to that of the Orioles’ Brooks Robinson.

In a 22-year career, Nettles hit almost 400 homers, drove in more than 1,300 runs, was a six-time all-star, won multiple Gold Gloves and led the American League in home runs in 1976.

Alyea ended up being traded to the Twins a few months later, but not for Graig Nettles. No, the Senators received in return 33-year-old joe Grzenda, who won a total of 14 major league games.

Brant Alyea was out of baseball in 1972.

In other words, Bob Short waited too long.

The New York Mets, fresh off their miracle 1969 World Championship season, recognized that they had a problem at third base and saw the Senators' McMullen as their answer.

The Mets used 21-year-old Wayne Garrett (.219-1-39) and 36-year-old Ed Charles (.207-3-18) at third in 1969 and they understood they couldn’t hope to retain their crown with either of them at third.

The Mets offered a variety of packages for McMullen before settling on a two-for-one trade offer that would have brought to Washington relief pitcher Tug McGraw and starter Nolan Ryan.

Bob Short said no.

McGraw—father of Country singer Tim McGraw—had a great year in 1969, going 9-3, 2.24 with 12 saves. Over his career, McGraw won 96 games, saved another 180, had a very solid 3.14 ERA, and was a two-time all-star. He won two World Series, one with the Mets and the other with the Phillies in 1980.

And McGraw was the worst of the two players being dangled by the Mets.

Nolan Ryan won 324 games in an astonishing 27-year career. He was an eight-time all-star, is the all-time leader in strikeouts and is second in career starts.

Oh yes, he’s also thrown seven no-hitters.

Just a few months after turning down the Mets’ offer, Short traded McMullen to the California Angels for outfielder Rick Reichardt and third baseman Aurelio Rodriguez.

Reichardt was out of baseball three years later and Rodriguez spent the next decade with the Detroit Tigers as a good field, low hit third baseman.

In other words, Short waited too long. Again.

Now let’s do some addition by subtraction.

During the 1971 Winter Meetings, Short traded Brinkman, Rodriguez along with pitchers Joe Coleman and Jim Hannan to the Tigers for over-the-hill Denny McLain and three warm bodies.

Let’s say he never made that trade, and Lord knows, he never should have. That was the final nail in the Senators’ coffin.

This would have been the 1972 Washington Senators starting rotation:

Catfish Hunter: 21-7, 2.04
Nolan Ryan: 19-16, 2.28
Joe Coleman: 20-14, 2.80
Rich Hand: 10-14, 3.32
Dick Bosman: 8-10, 3.63

Rich Hand and Dick Bosman both played with the Texas Rangers in 1972 and would have been part of the team had they remained in Washington. The Rangers won only 54 games that year, so you would think the two would have combined for an additional eight wins or so with a solid Senators’ team.

The 1972 Senators, with that kind of starting rotation, would never have left Washington.

And those five starters would have combined to win 86 wins (give or take). If that Senators team had even just an average offense, they would have likely won at least 100 games and made it into the post season.

And history would have been forever rewritten regarding baseball in Washington. Those thirty four years of emptiness would have been full of wonderful memories of a Senators team that finally and forever buried that oft-repeated, and always hated, saying:

“Washington: First in war, first in peace, and last in the American League.”

I have written often about Bob Short, perhaps the most hated man in both Minneapolis as well as Washington (He not only moved the Senators to Texas, he also moved the Lakers to Los Angeles).

I have always believed that the movie Major League—about an owner who ruins a baseball team to justify moving it elsewhere—was based on Short.

But it has been difficult knowing how he destroyed the team.

Now we all know that he could have turned the Senators into a winner, but didn’t because he was a poor man looking for money wherever he could find it.

Rot in hell, Bob Short. You deserve it.

Why Bryce Harper Is Not the Answer to the Nationals' Woes

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:59:00 -0400

The Washington Nationals are 19 games away from securing the top pick in baseball’s amateur draft for the second straight season.

You can decide if congratulations or condolences are in order.

Either way, Washington is a full six games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the right to draft uber-prospect Bryce Harper, the high school catcher from Nevada who is so good he’ll be playing college ball next spring instead of finishing his junior year of high school.

How good is this kid? I’m not going to bore you with the favorable comparisons to Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey, Jr; I mean, that just goes without saying. But he’s good enough to find himself on the cover of Sports Illustrated this past spring, and that’s something that just doesn’t happen too often.

In fact, it’s never happened for a high school baseball player.

This kid who is good is a good kid too. He’s a member of the Mormon faith, attends church seminary classes every morning before school starts, and spends three hours in church every Sunday and a couple more on Tuesday nights.

He’s the same religion and the same position as Dale Murphy when he first joined the Atlanta Braves in the mid-1970s.

Everyone seems to believe he will become the next offensive major league superstar and has the well-grounded family life to make him the star in any team’s clubhouse.

And he’ll be advised by none other than Mr. Scott Boras.

Thus, I am going to commit baseball heresy by declaring right now that the Nationals need to bypass Mr. Stud Muffin and choose a different player with that top pick.

I’ll pause for a moment until the yelling and screaming subsides.

Thank you.

I have always been a proponent of the theory of taking the best player available in an amateur draft, but in the case of the Washington Nationals, Harper’s youth and inexperience is such a detriment that his tremendous athletic skills become almost secondary to the discussion.

The team will be coming off two of the worst back-to-back losing seasons in recent memory, and the Nationals are in dire need of creating some immediate excitement for their fans. Two more 100-plus losing seasons and you might as well begin looking for yet another city ready to accept a Washington baseball franchise.

As good as Bryce Harper may be, he is not going to make the jump to the major leagues at warp speed like Stephen Strasburg, or even Drew Storen, most certainly will.

Harper will be 17 when he is drafted next June and would otherwise be ready to start his senior year in high school. I don’t care how good he may be or how quickly he adjusts to the professional pitchers he’ll face once he reaches "AA"—he won’t be ready to become an everyday player with the Nationals until 2014 at the earliest.

In other words, the damage of two or three more abysmal seasons won’t be undone when Harper makes it to Washington.

Regardless of what the Nationals do this offseason, they will need at least one more quality starting pitcher, and if we look beyond Harper, the next two top projected picks are both college pitchers, left-hander Drew Pomeranz of Ole Miss and right-handed Tony Ranaudo out of LSU.

In 2009, Pomeranz went 8-4 for the Rebels with a 3.40 ERA, striking out 128 in 95 innings. He walked just 37. Don’t let that ERA fool you either; this guy’s the real deal. The SEC is a strong offensive league, and remember, Storen had a 3.80 ERA for Stanford this past season and just finished his first minor league season with a nifty 1.95 ERA.

Pomeranz’ fastball stops out at 94 mph, but he consistently hits 91-92 mph. His curve is his best off-speed pitch.

Ranaudo, 19, was 12-3, 3.04 for the Tigers, striking out 159 in just 124 innings. He is 6’7” and brings a mid-90s fastball.

But wait, there’s more!

Among the top 10 amateurs are five starting pitchers. In addition to Pomeranz and Ranaudo are Josh Osich (Oregon State), Matt Harvey (University of North Carolina), and Chris Hernandez (University of Miami).

The last thing the Nationals need is to draft a 17-year-old kid and then wait until the last day of the signing period before they can sign him, effectively losing a year of seasoning in their minor league system.

With a little luck, the Nationals can draft a college pitcher next summer and have him pitching alongside Strasburg in 2011. Sure, not drafting Harper could eventually backfire, but they need one more starting pitcher in the rotation before they can honestly begin to contend.

It makes sense to me, anyway.

The Washington Nationals Will Turn the Corner Sooner Than Expected

Farid Rushdi — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 22:39:06 -0400

The Washington Nationals are on a pace to finish the season at 56-106, four games worse than last year’s woeful effort.

Their wish list for next year, however, is not nearly as long as their record would suggest.

They are set with quality major leaguers at catcher (Jesus Flores), first base (Adam Dunn), shortstop (Cristian Guzman), third base (Ryan Zimmerman), left field (Josh Willingham), and center field (Nyjer Morgan) .

Second is a problem and right field could be if Elijah Dukes doesn’t continue to mature. That said, had Dukes played regularly this year, he would have been on pace to hit .260-15-97, certainly good enough for a six-place hitter.

Really, if the Nationals upgrade second base—or move Guzman to second and find a new short stop—the offense will be just fine.

The bullpen, once the worst in major league baseball, has also become at least major league average, maybe a little bit better.

Mike MacDougal (1-0, 2.72), Sean Burnett (1-1, 2.62), Tyler Clippard (2-2, 3.02) and Ron Villone (4-5, 4.20) are four quality arms that should return in 2010. Add Drew Storen, who was an unbelievable 2-1, 1.95 in 37 innings with 49 strikeouts and just 8 walks, and the Nationals are only one or two arms short of having a great bullpen.

Mike Rizzo said late this week that there were many quality starting pitchers who will be available this offseason, and while he couldn’t say who, he did say the Nationals would sign one of them.

Livan Hernandez (1-2, 4.50), who has had three solid outings in his four starts with the Nationals, will probably be back next year. So the team can likely count on the free agent signing, Hernandez and John Lannan to fill the first three spots in the team’s rotation.

Garrett Mock (4.72 ERA as a starter), J.D. Martin (4-4, 4.29), and Craig Stammen (4-7, 5.11) have all shown enough to warrant a second year in the team’s rotation.

Stephen Strasburg will probably join the team for good sometime around the 2010 all-star break, and Jordan Zimmermann should be well enough to start a few games in late September.

The rotation, at least by year's end, should be fine.

So here is what we could expect the offense to produce next season:

CF: Nyjer Morgan—.285-4-50, 50 steals

SS: Cristian Guzman—.280-8-56

3B: Ryan Zimmerman—.285-30-100

1B: Adam Dunn—.270-40-120

LF: Josh Willingham—.270-25-85

RF: Elijah Dukes—.270-20-75

C: Jesus Flores—.270-16-60

2B: XXXXXXXXX

If these starters can remain healthy, the Nationals can do one of two things with the middle infield. They can move Guzman to second and find a defensive specialist to play short, or keep Guzman at short and acquire a second baseman through free agency or via a trade.

Depending on which starting pitcher Mike Rizzo signs this winter—I’d guess it would be someone like Randy Wolfe—the Nationals could win an additional 23-28 games in 2010. I understand that is a stretch, but this team isn’t as bad as its record.

I’m not suggesting that the Nationals will be in a hunt for the playoffs next year, but neither will they be a laughingstock. The corner is about to be turned.

Really.

When The Washington Senators Almost Moved To Atlanta

Farid Rushdi — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:59:29 -0400

Bob Short. Just the mention of the name darkens the skies and depresses the soul.

Short, the former owner of the Minneapolis Lakers and one-time chairman of the Democratic National Committee, named himself—having never held a job in organized baseball—the team’s general manager just days after buying the team in late 1968

In his first major trade, Short traded three of his best players to the Detroit Tigers for the enigmatic and over-the-hill Denny McLain, drastically reducing both wins in the standings and fans at the stands.

Crying "poverty," Short and the team were in Arlington, Texas a year later.
D.C. baseball fans remember what Calvin Griffith did to the city of Washington in 1960. D.C. baseball fans remember what Bob Short did a decade later.

Few remember, however, that there was another owner who tried to move the team in that period between pariah No. 1 and pariah No. 2.

The Braves were not the first baseball team courted by the city of Atlanta. A new, modern stadium, "like that one in Washington," according to the mayor, was on the drawing board since the early 1960's. The city was ready to begin construction the moment a team was found.

Days after Kansas City officials turned down owner Charlie Finley's request for a new stadium for the Athletics, he was invited to Atlanta to look at potential sites for the new stadium there.

By July of 1962, however, it was obvious that Finley didn't have the support of his fellow owners for a move to Atlanta. The deal was dead.

1963, however, was more fruitful for the city of Atlanta. The Braves, no longer the hot ticket in Milwaukee, were suffering from a combination of low attendance and political indifference.

Agreements were eventually signed, a stadium built, and although slowed by a judge's ruling, the move to Atlanta was completed in time for the 1966 season. Atlanta had their baseball team. The Athletics were Atlanta's second choice, the Braves their third.

The Senators had been their first.

Calvin Griffith's attempt to move the Senators to Bloomington, Minnesota was met with all the bluster that Washington politicians could muster. It was only when Major League Baseball promised an expansion franchise to the city did the lawyers finally back off.

Griffith's moving vans weren't past Fairfax Circle before Elvin Quesada, the FAA administrator, was named the owner of the Senators II.

The honeymoon lasted less than a year.

Quesada was not a wealthy man, and his operating capital was depleted before the end of that first season.

Attendance dropped by 55,000 from 1960. Although playing in the new RFK Stadium would greatly increase revenue, Quesada wasn't sure he could keep the team afloat until then.

Enter Colonel Beauregard Peyton of Atlanta.

Beauregard was a life-long resident of Atlanta. He was a businessman who envisioned an Atlanta based baseball team as a conduit to a regional television and radio network.

A team in Atlanta, he correctly assumed, would likely be embraced by fans in all the southern states. Unlike Short, Peyton didn't hide his plans.

Many believed that it was just a matter of time before the team moved south. Washington legend Shirley Povich wrote, "It is not believed that the American League would allow him to move for the 1962 season, so he will have a full year to work on American League president Joe Cronin, a former Senator player."

Peyton promoted manager Mickey Vernon to general manager, and hired another former Senator, Cecil Travis, to manage the club. Povich was wary of this move, "wondering" in his column if Peyton made Vernon the GM so that he could succeed, or more likely, so he could fail.

Of course, Peyton never got his wish. American League owners didn't want to hear about losing their "anti-trust exemption" from piqued congressman still angry about the Calvin Griffith move, and refused to entertain Peyton's request to move the team.

The Senators were sold again before landing in the lap of Robert Short, who completed Peyton's dirty deed in 1971.

In the end, all is forgiven. Washington now has a National League team, a new stadium, and a fan base large enough to support a top-notch organization. Although the 34-year wait was painful, it helped all of us remember what it’s like not to have a team.

This time, D.C. baseball will be embraced and never taken for granted.

Oh, and by the way...rot in hell Bob Short.

Nationals Pitching Prospects Impressing No One Heading Into Off-Season

Farid Rushdi — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 14:31:16 -0400

Over the past couple of weeks, I have been away from BleacherReport.com generally, and the Washington Nationals specifically, as the health and needs of my adopted four-year-old son have taken precedence.

And considering that any faint light of respectability has long since darkened, I doubt you missed me.

But there was something else that I noticed during my self-imposed exile from the Nationals: I could live without them.

And that is something I never thought could happen. It’s not, after all, the first time that a Washington baseball team played meaningless September baseball. I’ve been through this in 1964, ’65, ’66, ’67, ’68, ’70 and ’71, and that was before the Expos moved to Washington to continue the tradition of bad baseball.

This one, however, this time, and this team, makes things seem even more disheartening.

The old Senators played in a benign baseball park that couldn’t have been a worse design for baseball if the architect’s had tried (and maybe they did). Their owners were poor when compared to their peers, and baseball decisions never seemed to make much sense.

Today, the Nationals have a sparkling new ballpark, rich owners with ties to the city, and—finally—respected, experienced baseball men making the decisions.

So what’s making me feel uncomfortable about the team today?

Over the past few years, the Nationals have been stockpiling young pitching, knowing that out of every four or five true prospects, the team could expect to see one of them become a solid major league pitcher.

But thus far, no one from that talent pool is pointing to himself and saying, “I’m that one guy; it’s me.”

Shairon Martis looked great early in the season, but hasn’t impressed anyone at Syracuse. Craig Stammen has shown flashes, but he’s just undergone surgery on his throwing arm, as Jordan Zimmermann did a month or so back.

Colin Balester has twice been given an opportunity to show he is as good as his press clippings, and twice he has shown Mike Rizzo and Jim Riggleman that he has problems keeping the ball down.

Garrett Mock, J.D. Martin, and Ross Detwiler have all shown they might be able to “make it,” but they all could just as well become Wal-Mart greeters by the time they are 30. And Scott Olsen might make it back to the Nationals in 2010 and be their ace, or the Nationals just might release him before they are forced to go to arbitration with the former Marlin.”

So it would seem that the Nationals are not, as we all thought, a team with a lot of real pitching prospects. The team has several high draft picks in the minor leagues right now, but few of them are playing well. Josh Smoker, Colten Willems, and Jack McGeary were all signed with great fanfare, but that fanfare has since subsided as the doubts and concerns continue to mount.

The offense is not the problem. Take a look how our starter’s numbers should look at the end of the season assuming they had remained healthy and had played every day.

C: Jesus Flores - .311-20-75

1B: Adam Dunn - .283-42-111

2B: No one here will be back

SS: Cristian Guzman - .294-8-55

3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .300-34-112

LF: Josh Willingham - .284-33-90

CF: Nyjer Morgan - .307-4-50, 53 steals

RF: Elijah Dukes - .260-16-102

I didn’t include a starting second baseman because none of them will be in the mix to be a starter in 2010.

Stan Kasten has always said that his policy isn’t to sign free agent pitchers. That means the team will either promote from within to help with the pitching or they will trade some of that solid offense to find a pitcher, which means that the team’s offense will get worse as their pitching gets better.

Stephen Strasburg will help at some point, and Drew Storen seems ready to take over the closer’s role, which will make for a fairly potent bullpen with Mike McDougal as the set-up man.

But until the Nationals find some real starting pitching, wins will be very hard to come by.