Bleacher Report - Articles by John Weaver

NHL 2009 August Predictions

John Weaver — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 00:54:43 -0400

I'm aware that the season isn't even close to starting, and that there are a ton of free agents still out there. But as of right now, this seems like a probable outcome.

Eastern Conference Standings

*- indicates playoff team

Atlantic

*New York Rangers = Vastly improved from last season, added goal scoring in Gaborik.
*Pittsburgh Penguins = Holding serve, time for defense to step up a notch.
*Philadelphia Flyers = Pronger good enough to get team to playoffs.
New Jersey Devils = So bad that Yahoo hasn’t updated their roster.
New York Islanders = Still one more year to go. New arena may be bolstered by Tavarez, competitiveness.

Northeast

*Boston = The up and coming get better with Derek Morris.
*Ottawa = Distractions won’t hurt team, especially if Heatley leaves.
*Montreal = Gionta/Gomez may be good enough to make a run.
Toronto = Defense good, what else though?
Buffalo = All eyes on Ryan Miller, no defensive help in off-season.

Southeast

* Carolina = The team builds off of last year’s success and catapults into elite team status.
* Atlanta= The development ends, Kovalchuk gets his support, goes on mission.
Washington = The offseason losses of two centers with no replacement leaves Ovechkin trying to do it all.
Tampa Bay = This team is almost, almost there. Clearing salary space will help.
Florida = Now that Boumeester is gone, you will see this team’s true colors.

Western Conference Standings

Pacific

*Anaheim = Saku Koivu won’t be a bust, the core is intact, and this is a tough team to play against.
* Los Angeles = The best young team in the west outside of Chicago. Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth, Jack Johnson and Drew Doughty along with Rob Scuderi. Only missing piece is goaltending.
* San Jose = No improvements, maybe the hunger sinks in?
Phoenix= Could surprise some people if chemistry kicks in, but probably not.
Dallas = Barring no injuries, could challenge for eighth spot. So could Phoenix though. So could lots of teams.

Central

* Chicago = Time for the new guard to step up, and Hossa to deliver what he delivers best. A division title.
*Detroit = No signs of slowing down, but competition has really ramped up.
* St. Louis = Barring a charge from Steve Mason’s Blue Jackets, a healthy Blues team is a dangerous one.
Columbus = May ride Mason and Nash into the playoffs again.
Nashville = You can never count them out, but I do. The roster is a mess.

Northwest

* Calgary = Jokinen and Boumeester will lead team to division title.
* Vancouver = Not much improvement, just solid and steady.
Minnesota = Loss of Gaborik may be made up by Havlat, but that wasn’t enough before and won’t be now.
Edmonton = Consistently inconsistent.
Colorado = Not enough talent, lots of salary dumping on the way.
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Could it be true? Will the Penguins really be knocked out by the Rangers? As a fan, I say, "NO WAY!" but as a realist, all I can say is, it'd make for one hell of a series. The Hawks need to get by Detroit in order to shake that demon from them permanently. The real suprise here? The Kings.

I'm telling everyone right now, watch out for this team. In the end, I could see it (at least as it stands now) either being a 1992 rematch between Pittsburgh and Chicago (Jon Claude van Damme would love that), or an Original Six Stanley Cup Final, with the seasoned Rangers ousting the up and coming Kane and Toews lead Blackhawks. I'm sure this will all change during the year...but for right now...

Eastern Conference Playoffs

1. New York Rangers vs. 8. Philadelphia Flyers = Rangers in five.

2. Boston Bruins vs. 7. Montreal Canadians = Bruins in six.

3. Carolina Hurricanes vs. 6. Atlanta Thrashers = Thrashers in seven.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 5. Ottawa Senators = Penguins in seven.

1. New York Rangers vs. 6. Atlanta Thrashers = Rangers in six.

2. Boston Bruins vs. 4. Pittsburgh Penguins = Penguins in five.

1. New York Rangers vs. 4. Pittsburgh Penguins = Rangers in seven.

Western Conference Playoffs

1. Anaheim Ducks vs. 8. San Jose Sharks = Ducks in seven.

2. Chicago Blackhawks vs. 7. St. Louis Blues = Blackhawks in six.

3. Calgary Flames vs. 6. Los Angeles Kings = Kings in five.

4. Detroit Red Wings vs. 5. Vancouver Canucks = Wings in seven.

1. Anaheim Ducks vs. 6. Los Angeles Kings = Kings in six.

2. Chicago Blackhawks vs. 4. Detroit Red Wings = Blackhawks in five.

2. Chicago Blackhawks vs. 6. Los Angeles Kings = Blackhawks in four.

Stanley Cup Finals

1. New York Rangers vs. 2. Chicago Blackhawks = Rangers in five.

The NHL Playoffs: What Will Happen?

John Weaver — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 01:48:05 -0400

My predictions at the beginning of the year for the Atlantic and Pacific Divisions in the NHL were way off. The Stars probably would have finished second had they had Loui Eriksson and Brad Richards all year like I said, but they didn't. Both were injured for the majority of the season, along with Brendan Morrow.

The Penguins got in, but not in first place in their division. The Flyers are much better than I thought. The only thing I got right was the Sharks, running away with their division, and as of tonight, one point from wrapping up the President's Trophy for the league's best regular season record.

So what are the playoffs going to look like? Even though there aren't solidified positions right now, the following is what we can expect to see in the first round of the NHL postseason.

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Boston vs. No. 8 New York

This series will be quick and over in short order. The Rangers are on a free fall. If it wasn't for the Florida Panthers never being able to close the deal and make a run, they wouldn't even be in the playoffs.

The Bruins have been successful all year long, and are starting to pick up their game at the right time, while the Rangers haven't been consistent at any point. Despite having a better goaltender, the Rangers won't be able to hold back the likes of Lucic, Krejci, Savard and Chara.

Result: Bruins 4-0

No. 2 Washington vs. No. 7 Montreal

Although the Capitals lack a goaltender that can carry them far, they do have something else that can at least get them through one round. Alex Ovechkin is looking to get his team to the next level, and will dominate the equally poor Montreal goal tending.

Unless Kovelev, Kostitsyn, or anyone else from this depleted roster can step up, (Schneider is done for the year) the Capitals should have at least enough bandwidth to move on.

Result: Capitals 4-1

No. 3 New Jersey vs. No. 6 Pittsburgh

A strong push at the end of the season will definitely help the Penguins, despite not getting the home ice they strived for. The Penguins will win this series for the same reason NHL analysts think the Devils will: Marty Brodeur. He is an outstanding goaltender, but if there's one team that has his number, it's the Penguins. Remember Alexei Morozov? Probably not, but I bet Brodeur does.

Result: Penguins 4-2

No. 4 Carolina vs. No. 5 Philadelphia

This series might be close, or it might be a mauling. I’m going to go with close. Carolina is on a hot streak going in, not to mention the hot goal tending they've been getting lately from a resurrected Cam Ward. Add in the Flyers' shaky Marty Biron, and you have a recipe for a Canes' victory.

Result: Hurricanes 4-2

Western Conference

No. 1 San Jose vs. No. 8 St. Louis

St. Louis is the story here. Despite the Sharks being able to dispose of them, the mere fact they made the playoffs at all is impressive. Battling injuries all year, they will give the eventual Stanley Cup Champions a fight they won't soon forget.

Result: San Jose 4-3

No. 2 Detroit vs. No. 7 Anaheim

Anaheim will get the matchup the Blues wanted because of a slightly more successful end to the season.

However, maybe had the Blues gotten this seed, Detroit might have got knocked out early. The Ducks will fight and make it a good series, but Osgood will have his issues, and it will take more than what the Ducks have to knock the crown off these redheads.

Result: Detroit 4-2

No. 3 Vancouver vs. No. 6 Columbus

A tale of two fantastic teams, meeting in a round where it's literally anyone's game. The Canucks will make a run at the end to get into the third seed, and while Columbus will make a superb effort, they may be a little overwhelmed by their new surroundings.

This may not be Rick Nash's last trip to the playoffs, but it will be his shortest. Luongo and Sundin are just too tough for the Jackets, but as Columbus head coach Ken Hitchcock said, "This is all a learning process."

Result: Canucks 4-1

No. 4 Chicago vs. No. 5 Calgary

A rematch of the '95-'96 first round where Chicago swept the Flames right out of the postseason. Calgary lost the Northwest Division lead on the last day, due to a free fall of epic proportions (including a 0-37 power play stretch).

Chicago is coming in on a hot streak, and with the young talent on its side and a suddenly hot goaltender in Khabibulin, the Flames are no match for the Blackhawks this time around either.

Result: Blackhawks 4-1

Second Round Matchups

No. 1 Boston vs. No. 6 Pittsburgh

This series is one that the Bruins hoped to avoid, but are still good enough to win. The Penguins, the only team to pull off a round one upset, will undo the standard that Stanley Cup bridesmaids don't win playoff rounds the next year.

However, they won't be able to keep up the Bylsmagic any longer. Somewhere, Cam Neely is smiling.

Result: Bruins 4-2

No. 2 Washington vs. No. 4 Carolina

The Capitals' goal tending problems will shine brightly, as the Hurricanes don't even begin to have that issue. This will be a series of contrasts, and the Canes will make the hockey world wonder, what if they had picked up speed earlier and won the Southeast?

Result: Hurricanes 4-1

No. 1 San Jose vs. No. 4 Chicago

The Sharks are on a mission this year, with a bunch of guys who have been in this situation before. While the Blackhawks are happy to have gotten this far, the Sharks won't be satisfied until they win it all. Nabokov will shine his brightest, and all the preseason acquisitions will begin to pay major dividends.

Result: Sharks 4-0

No. 2 Detroit vs. No. 3 Vancouver

A crazy series that will have people asking "Can Detroit really repeat with these kind of efforts?" It will be unfortunate to see Sundin's run come short yet again, especially with a team that begins to struggle at the wrong time.

However, you can't win games when you let in upwards of 40 shots on a consistent basis. Despite how much better Luongo is than Osgood, Osgood isn't going to face nearly that many shots.

Result: Detroit 4-3

Third Round Matchups

No. 1 Boston vs. No. 4 Carolina

This is the moment Bruins fans have been waiting for for 18 years. A chance to dance in the Finals yet again. Carolina will put up a massive fight. In fact, this series may swing both ways throughout.

However, the difference will be the home ice that the Bruins have fought so hard to get this season, and in Game Seven, in front of a raucous Boston fan base, the Eastern Conference will belong to the Bruins.

Result: Bruins 4-3

No. 1 San Jose vs. No. 2 Detroit

I've said it all year long. Had the Sharks been able to score one more goal in Game Six vs. the Dallas Stars, there may have been a different Stanley Cup Champion. The Sharks are fierce, hungry, and determined, while the Red Wings, traditionally, are relaxed, steady, and have been here before.

That won't matter this time. The Sharks have been waiting a long time to silence their critics, and by knocking off the defending champs, they will finally put those criticisms to rest.

Result: Sharks 4-2

Stanley Cup Championship

No. 1 San Jose vs. No. 1 Boston

It happens so rarely that a pair of No. 1 seeds get this far. This series will have a ton of story lines. Joe Thornton returning to stop his former team from winning the big one; Boston trying to recapture the glory days; Nabokov trying to silence his critics.

Two of the toughest, most talented teams the league has seen in some time won't just give entertainment that will rival last year's Finals match up, they will beat each other senseless and not give one inch.

But one inch is all it will really take. In a thrilling Game Seven in San Jose, the Sharks will pull one last victory from the Bruins and win their first ever Stanley Cup.

Result: San Jose 4-3

Ilya Kovalchuk Trade Possibility: How the Penguins Can Land the Left Winger

John Weaver — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 13:52:22 -0500

Any idea of Ilya Kovalchuk leaving Atlanta has sportswriters screaming, "Impossible!" at the top of their lungs. It seems that, in their world, the Thrashers would simply stop existing, both to fans and to the NHL.

True, Kovalchuk is the face of that franchise, and, to be honest, he's the only face. However, a trade with the Penguins could change both teams' fortunes tremendously.

Let's say, for example, the Penguins want to land both Kovalchuk and Colby Armstrong. In return, they have to pump new life into Atlanta. How about a young defenseman (Kris Letang), a skilled veteran (Petr Sykora), and a promising up-and-comer (Wallace/Lovejoy/Minard)?

Now the Thrashers would have Sykora, Letang, Erik Christensen, and Angelo Esposito coming soon, and maybe another solid young player? Lovejoy may be the way to go for the Pens, as he has a few games of NHL experience under his belt, and, really, the Thrashers need defensemen badly.

That's how you build an NHL team—from the back to the front. And they already have a solid one-two punch in net with Lehtonen and Hedberg. How could you say after that move that the Thrashers would cease to be?

As for the Penguins, now you're looking at a Kovalchuk/Crosby/Armstrong first line, a Pascal Dupuis/Evgeni Malkin/Miroslav Satan second line, a Matt Cooke/Jordan Staal/Tyler Kennedy third line, and a Eric Godard/Maxime Talbot/Ruslan Fedetenko fourth line, with Sergei Gonchar, Ryan Whitney, Alex Goligoski, Phillippe Boucher, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik, and Mark Eaton to choose from on defense.

And knowing Therrien's creativity, you may see Talbot move up, Kovalchuk and Malkin work together, and who knows what else? Crosby would get two pieces in one. A confidence boost and a scoring winger.

Would Kovalchuk be a rental player? Possibly. But after last year, when he said his team had to make the playoffs this year, and they clearly aren't, it seems to me like he wants a chance to be competitive year after year.

With a roster like that, how could you say they wouldn't be? Come on, Shero! Pull off another fast one!

Michel Therrien Wrong Scapegoat for Pittsburgh Penguins Woes

John Weaver — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 15:20:40 -0500

This is more like it. Only for Penguin fans, this can't be happening.

While there are many stats that can be thrown around to point out when describing the free-fall of the Pittsburgh Penguins lately, there is something else that every expert, fan, and even general manager, can't seem to wrap their arms around.

With fans screaming for coach Michel Therrien's head after a 20-17-4 first half, and with players talking over and over about paying attention to detail, this is the season that many experts believed the Penguins would have, especially after losing no fewer than seven veterans in the off-season.

But to blame Therrien for this mess is highly misguided. The defense of this team, save for Sergei Gonchar, is exactly the same as the stout defense that landed the Penguins near the top of the league in goals against last year. The goaltending still lies mostly on the shoulders of Fleury, who has seemingly stepped backwards a little this year, although he has kept the team in games many times. Sabourin has done well, at least as well as a backup should do. And the offense?

Well...see, there's the problem. Sure, Malkin is leading the league in scoring, and Crosby is close behind. But that is where it ends. While the Penguins did not necessarily have Hossa last year until late in the season, they still had plenty of grit in Ruutu and Malone, a grinder with decent hands in Laraque, and plug players like Hall and Roberts. The replacements are what general manager Ray Shero believed would fill the holes nicely. However, take a look at these names.

Petr Sykora, Pascal Dupuis, Miroslav Satan, Ruslan Fedetenko, Matt Cooke, and Eric Goddard are supposed to fill the shoes of a veteran, a fighter, and an outstanding winger named Hossa, along with the traffic in front of the net that Malone provided.

However, the first four players on that list are almost exactly the same caliber wingers, which is to say, they're mediocre. This is the first problem Therrien faces. How do you shake up lines when all the players are exactly the same, no matter where you move them?

Well, for one, Jordan Staal would make an excellent power forward for someone like Malkin, especially on the awful power play that has struggled lately to even be noticed. He could utilize his size in front of the net, and with his great hands and reach, could retrieve pucks behind the net and find someone like Malkin, creating the kind of cycling that the Penguins were so noted for next year. Who would go on that line with them? Well, as I said, it really doesn't matter which winger you chose, but Sykora and Malkin seem to have some chemistry together, so there's a line, even a power play if you so desire.

Next problem is that they have no veteran leadership on this team. Some players have admitted to not following Coach Therrien's leadership this season, and to be honest, why should they? Who's going to step up in the young player's faces in the locker room and say, "Listen to the coach"? Certainly not Gary Roberts or Mark Rechhi. If Ray Shero doesn't want to fire the coach, but doesn't want to make an explosive, risky trade, than try trading one of those fourth liners like Tim Wallace to a team looking to rebuild, and in return, get some fourth line guy at the end of his career, with lots of scars and grit to prove it.

The next problem is one sentence long. Eric Godard is no Georges Laraque. Laraque fought plenty, dropped everyone he met, and still managed to cycle, crash and bang below the opponent's goal line. He was a fan favorite, and Eric Godard is still trying just to fit in.

Which brings me to the final problem. Team chemistry. This may be the sole reason why Shero refuses to panic quite yet, as this room does not seem to be generating much love for each other. Sure Talbot, Kennedy, Crosby, Whitney, Orpik and Fleury still get along. But it seems the room is more of a clique of these players now rather than the family it seemed when Colby Armstrong, Eric Christiansen and Ryan Malone were still around. Maybe Shero is waiting for the room to gel, in hopes that the players will start standing up for one another the way they used to.

The point though, is this. Pittsburgh is a strange city to be a fan of sports in. When the Steelers fail, it's always the quarterback's fault. And when the Penguins fail, it's always the coach's fault. However, how often does the firing or cutting of these scapegoats pay off?

Only once in recent memory. When Eddie Olczyk was fired and replaced by a certain Michel Therrien.

Sean Avery's Fate Unjust

John Weaver — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 07:47:50 -0500

I'm not a Sean Avery fan and never have been.

But looking at what has happened in the past week or so, it's hard to agree with the NHL's decision, or the Stars' decision, to pretty much run him out of the league.

I've got two words for you: Todd Bertuzzi.

Remember him?

In case you don't, he's the guy who ended Steve Moore's career in 2004 with a punch to the back of the head. He's still playing.

I'm a little confused by this, considering what Avery said may have been offensive, but not nearly as offensive as what's said or done at ice level. Sure, no one wants to explain to their kids what "Sloppy Seconds" mean.

However, what about having to explain what is said behind the net during stoppages? It's not like eight-year-old kids sitting at glass level can't hear it.

The NHL is really no different than any other sport. It's supposed to be a gentleman's game, but you have Rick Tocchet's gambling issue, Jim Schoenfeld attacking a ref, even Maurice Richard's attack on Cliff Thompson in 1955, resulting in riots and an attack on Clarence Campbell!

Yet when a player opens his mouth, like in the NFL, he's basically run out of the league.

What about John Tortorella's rants with reporters? He drops several F-bombs and gets nothing! It seems as though this was well thought out beforehand, like at a minimum wage job. When an employee isn't well received by a member of management, they look for that one minor slip-up that will allow justifiable firing.

You could argue Avery's not producing. He has only three goals and 10 points this year. However, the rest of the Dallas Stars aren't exactly shining either.

Unless the Stars have a dramatic turnaround, I can't see this being the right move by an organization wishing for a mulligan to this season.

Pittsburgh Penguins' Hopes Hinge on Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby

John Weaver — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 15:26:03 -0500

In the not too distant past, the NHL was dominated by three players.

Jaromir Jagr, Mario Lemieux, and Wayne Gretzky combined to win the scoring title an astounding 20 seasons in a row, from 1981 to 2001.

Stunning as that was, two of those players played for the same team—the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Fast forward to 2007. Once again, the league is dominated by three players.

This time, it's Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin. Once again, two of those players play for the same team. That team?

The Pittsburgh Penguins.

Astounding as all this is, if you took a look at the current point leaders, you'd see that Crosby is chasing teammate Malkin for the scoring lead, with a nine point lead over Ovechkin as of Dec. 16.

Yet, Washington as a team remains five points ahead of the Penguins in the standings. Why is this?

To be fair, Ovechkin can carry a team. He did it for most of last season, dragging his team into the playoffs on the last day of the season before the Caps bowed out in the seventh game to the Flyers. This Caps team, however, has outstanding secondary scoring, especially from Alex Semin and Nicklas Backstrom.

The Penguins, meanwhile, have a pieced together array of underachieving forwards.

Petr Sykora's hat trick in the 9-2 drubbing of the Islanders last week is the first sign of him making any strides to be as explosive as he has been in the past. Miroslav Satan had the team lead in goals to start the season but was recently passed by (who else?) Crosby and Malkin.

The consistency has not been there this year for the Penguins. And this is definitely cause for concern.

Look at two of their recent games. In a matchup versus Ottawa on the Dec. 6, Crosby and Malkin both got points on a Staal goal, and Malkin added a shorthanded goal. But who else scored? No one. As a result, the Senators won, 3-2. In another game vs. Buffalo on the 8th, Malkin had two assists and Crosby another...equaling three goals.

Buffalo won 4-3.

The Penguins were expected to fall this year with the departure of Hossa, Malone, Ruutu and others, although the fall appeared destined to be steeper as Gonchar and Whitney were both sidelined. However, until recently, the Penguins have kept pace with the Rangers for the division lead. That is, until last Saturday's game against the Flyers.

When the Penguins leading scorers could only muster 1 point (Malkin's assist on an Eric Godard goal), Pittsburgh couldn't even compete with the Flyers and dropped to 3rd in the division. The injuries could be the reason behind this recent 4-5-1 stretch, with the bodies simply piling up all over the place.

But it seems as though it's something more than that.

If more players on the Penguins don't start chipping in more often, the Penguins may drop right out of the playoff picture. Granted, Whitney is on his way back.

However, imagine where this team would be without Crosby? Or Malkin?

Or both?