Bleacher Report - Articles by Jason Sarney

Fantasy Baseball: The All-Flex Team

Jason Sarney — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 05:14:24 -0500

Something I have always tried to do in fantasy drafts is select players who would give me the best options. Options like starting a guy at SS, or 3B. Maybe even at 2B or 1B. No room for him in the main lineup? How about a UTL, MI, CI or DH spot in your deeper leagues?

Seven different options for one player can make a fantasy squad extremely dangerous thanks to the lineup flexibility. Imagine having two or three guys like this. Trust me, it makes fielding a fantasy team a pleasure.

First things first. One of the very first things anyone should do before they draft, is know the roster requirements and the eligibility rules that go along with them.

Yahoo has traditionally been the most lenient in terms of this, yet players are required to start at least 25 games at a position in some leagues in order for them to have eligibility there.

Without further delay, enjoy my “All-Flex Team." In no given order

*This is based on leagues where there are CI, MI, UTL and DH roster slots.

C/1B/CI/UTL/DH
Victor Martinez-CLE

Isn’t this a no-brainer? Granted he is in the top 2 Catchers in fantasy to begin with, but with 30 games at 1B last season ,and the flexibility shown above, may make Martinez a possible notch above Los Angeles Dodger Russell Martin. The 3^rd round is perfect for Martinez.

1B/OF/CI/UTL/DH
Lance Berkman- HOU

Another pretty simple choice here, with 126 starts at 1B and 32 in OF Berkman not only showed flexibility, but even more importantly, durability. Although Berkman did not have as strong a season in 2007 as he did in 2006, I like him to bounce back this year. It's always nice to shuffle 30+ homers in and around your lineup, isn't it? Think early 4th for him.

1B/OF/CI/UTL/DH
Nick Swisher- CHI (AL)

Getting shipped to Chicago was the best thing that could have happened to Swisher. Be sure to see him at 1B and OF this season, as last year he totaled 44 and 116 games at those positions, respectively. I am on the band wagon this year and consider Swisher a high value pick in the 7th round of standard roto leagues. Anywhere past the 7th is a steal.

OF/3B/2B/MI/CI/UTL/DH
Chone Figgins- ANA

Figgins is always one of those questionable fantasy players. Outstanding steals and run potential, but sub-par power and average make Figgins a 4^th or 5^th round pick. In some cases, maybe less. The 7 position potential might tip the scale towards the 4^th if you need your speed burner when the elite of Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez are off the board, which of course they will be. Figgins should not last past the 6^th.

*Figgins did not qualify in some leagues to be eligible at 2B and OF, but certainly keep an eye on the Angels lineup daily in 2008.

C/1B/CI/UTL/DH Jarrod Saltalamacchia- TEX

Texas got a gem in the making with the 6-4, multi-position slugger after Atlanta dealt him last season. 47 games at C and 38 at 1B gives this 25+ homer threat multiple ways to benefit your fantasy team. I don't think round 11 is too early for this 22-year old. That's right deep keeper owners. He is 22.

1B/SS/UTL/MI/CI/DH
Carlos Guillen- DET

Guillen will start the season at 1B for Detroit, but don't be surprised to see some games where he is at SS or even DH. The Detroit lineup is so scary, and so flexible they are going to be scoring runs in bushels. In a fantasy sense, he can play almost anywhere, and can save your team should you suffer a tough injury to a MI, SS, or UTL player.

OF/2B/MI/UTL/DH
B.J. Upton- TAM

Upton is one of the top "buzz" picks of early mock drafts. I have seen this guy go as early as the 2nd round. Easy does it. I like him in the mid-third. Last season he played 48 games at 2B, and if your league has him eligible there, then he is a lot more valuable at 2B than he is at OF. A league with dual eligibility makes him even more a sought after pick.

Getting a few of these "flex" guys is really a lot more valuable than most realize. Think about the above, and numerous others who play multiple positions when trying to round out the depth of your team.

Fantasy Baseball: Let's Play Some High-Low

Jason Sarney — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 15:48:36 -0500

The last week or so, I must have completed dozens of mock fantasy baseball drafts.

I have seen plenty of trends, as you may expect, and plenty of curious fluctuations in certain players draft positions.

And we haven't even gotten to full-fledged spring training yet!

This isn't atypical in fantasy sports. Mock drafts in February are great market-value indicators for league drafts in March. We, at Green on the Other Side, have been inundated with emails from readers who both agree and disagree with our draft strategy and method of valuing players. Again, nothing atypical about this as well.

So, to further spark the debate on when players should and should not be selected, I wanted to put the power in the hands of our readers.

I like to call this little game "High/Low." The game is simple.

1.) I will post a player, and give them a draft round which is a ballpark estimate of where they are usually selected in recent mock drafts.

2.) You, the reader, will say in your own opinion if that round is too high, or too low.
2a.) Feel free to support your argument!

*Based on standard 5x5 roto-style 23 round mixed league drafts*

Lets start off with John Maine, New York Mets SP.

HIGH/LOW- Round 10

CHIPS and DIPS

Jason Sarney — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 07:00:23 -0500

By Brett Greenfield:

DIPS, or Defense Independent Pitching Statistics, is one of the most accurate statistics that can be used to determine how well a pitcher has pitched, independent from his defense behind him. After all, most of a pitcher's ERA is determined by his walk rate, strikeout rate, and ability to prevent homeruns.

So, what kind of plays involve a defense in the first place?

1. Any ground ball in play. 2. Any fly ball that is not a homerun.

So then, what does DIPS look at? The four statistics that are controlled entirely by a pitcher, even if there was not one fielder behind him. And they are:

1. Homeruns

2. Strikeouts

3. Walks

4. Hit batters.

Those plays are under only the pitcher's control in the sense that fielders have no effect on their outcome.

Taking a closer look into DIPS, we can analyze a pitcher's ability level. The stats we are looking at won't be effected even if one pitcher's shortstop is John McDonald and another's is Manny Ramirez. Defense-dependent statistics, such as the rate of hits allowed on balls put into play (other than home runs), are almost entirely the result of luck and the skills of the defensive players on the field. Today we take away those infielders and look at which pitchers have the best ability.

Once a ball is put into play the defense behind you can either help you or hurt you. It helped some and it hurt others. (Think about a team with AJones as a their CF vs a team with Nick Swisher as their CF. Think about a team with Brad Ausmus as their catcher vs a team with Mike Piazza as their catcher.)

There were 13 pitchers last year who had DIPS ERA's below 3.50. (View Last Year's DIPS)

1. Jake Peavy -- 2.76 (This was the lowest DIPS ERA since the early 2000's.. Since RJ)
2. John Smoltz -- 3.03 (What if a player's age was withheld for privacy reasons?)
3. Josh Beckett -- 3.04 (What blisters?)
4. CC Sabathia -- 3.09 (Entering a contract year)
5. Erik Bedard -- 3.10 (Out of the AL East)
6. Brandon Webb --3.10 (Still the best pitcher on the Dbacks)
7. Kelvin Escobar -- 3.38 (Should miss the first few months)
8. Scott Kazmir -- 3.38 (12K per 9 and 2.39 ERA led pitchers in second half)
9. Tim Hudson -- 3.40 (Not enough K's to stick with this group)
10. Chris Young -- 3.43 (Just reach 200 innings and you'll be a top 5 pitcher)
11. Joe Blanton -- 3.46 (Quietly had a great year. See Tim Hudson)
12. Tim Lincecum --3.48 (See Chris Young)
13. John Lackey -- 3.48 (I think the wheels fall off this year. Wonder why they loaded up on so much starting pitching this off season.. hmmmm)

These 13 pitchers kept their HR rates down, K rates high, and didn't walk or hit that many batters. Pound for pound these were the best 13 pitchers in baseball last year (OK, and Johan. He was 23rd with a 3.65 ERA). Last year Jake Peavy was touted highly in every one of our articles as having been "unlucky." Sure enough in 2007 he went on to have a career year. It's likely that he pitched the same exact way, but luck turned in his favor.

These 13 pitchers all had ERA's at 4.00 or less. By comparing their DIPS ERA to their ACTUAL ERA we can see which pitchers' ERA's were aided by a strong defense and which pitchers' ERA's were given a disservice by their spotty defense.

John Lackey is the only one on the list who stands out as having been extremely lucky. While he sported an eye-catching 3.01 ERA, his DIPS was 3.48. To boot, his ERC (Component ERA) was 3.41. Both sabermetric standards show that Lackey pitched far worse than his stats show.

Of those 13, should any of them have considerably better ERA's?

I notice three pitchers who should have had better ERA's on paper: Lincecum, Blanton and Beckett.

Lincecum had a 4.00 ERA, but his DIPS was 3.48. HIS ERC was 3.26. He should look better this year.

Blanton finished 2007 with a 3.95 ERA. His DIPS was 3.46 and his ERC 3.42. That's about half a run he should improve upon in 2008.

Josh Beckett's breakout season ended with an ERA of 3.27. His DIPS was at 3.27 and his ERC at 2.99. He's good to repeat for those naysayers.

The rest of the aforementioned crew in the DIPS top 13 had ERA's and DIPS ERA's close enough to not worth mentioning. It's safe to say that a player's DIPS ERA is a quality predictor of their true ability.

Aside from those in the DIPS top 13, were there any other outliers worth noting?

Here are a few pitchers who, based on having a DIPS ERA significantly higher than their actual ERA, should be due for a higher ERA in 2008 than they had in 2007. These guys could be overvalued on draft day due to inflated stats.

Fausto Carmona

His 3.06 ERA is very nice on the outside. However, his 3.92 DIPS ERA gives him the highest differential in the majors. Being a ground ball pitcher, he certainly relies on his defense a lot. Turning double plays and throwing runners out is something he has no control over. Having VMart behind the plate doesn't help either. I'd bet his ERA rises a bit closer to the 3.92 as opposed to staying at the 3.06.

Noah Lowry

His 3.92 ERA looks good, for him at least. A 4.88 DIPS begs to differ. I guess Omar Vizquel helps out a bit but nothing I've researched thus far gives me reason to believe Lowry's ERA will be under 4.00 in 2008.

Brad Penny

Like Carmona, he relies on his defense quite a bit. Who is playing 3B in LA this year? His 3.03 ERA is very different from his 3.66 DIPS ERA. Expect it to be somewhere in between in 2008.

Chad Billingsley

The Dodgers defense was pretty good last year it seems. They definitely helped out Penny and Billingsley. However, neither seems to have earned it. Because of 3.88 DIPS ERA, his 3.31 ACTUAL ERA doesn't look as authentic anymore. I think I've given you enough reasons to avoid Billingsley this year.

Dan Haren

He ended 2007 with a 3.07 ERA. His DIPS ERA was 3.60 though. I wish I could say something positive, really.

Roy Oswalt

His 3.18 ERA looks good. Noting that it was his highest ERA since 2004, the highest WHIP of his career and the lowest strikeout total of his career is nothing new to our readers. What is new, is 3.51 DIPS ERA to go along with a 3.72 ERC. I can't figure out who I'd rather not have in 2008, Oswalt or Haren. (Was that a triple negative?)

Here are a few pitchers who, based on having a DIPS ERA significantly lower than their actual ERA, should be due for a lower ERA in 2008 than they had in 2007. Their true ability might be hidden behind deflated stats, making them bargains on draft day.

Dustin McGowan

Anyone starting to notice some trends amongst sabermetric stats? Because I am. McGowan's 4.08 ERA was good but could have been better. His ERC was an astonishing 3.10. His DIPS was a ripe 3.64. He should surprise many this year. Be smart and take him in round 10 or 11 before someone else does. You won't be sorry.

Greg Maddux

His 4.14 ERA doesn't hurt you but doesn't help you either. His ERC and DIPS ERA were both solid at 3.56. His lack of K's put most of his balls in the hands of his defense. Losing Cameron may not help but Maddux is still underrated.

Jeremy Bonderman

Interesting to see his name here. His 5.01 ERA was one of the most disappointing in 2007. There is hope, if he's healthy though. His ERC was half a run lower at 4.49 and his DIPS was even lower at 3.94. While that doesn't give him an excuse for pitching so poorly (may have been due to injury) it does give us hope that he could bounce back.

Andy Sonnanstine

A top pitching prospect for the Rays, he could be a decent guy to end your draft with. Yes, he had a 5.85 ERA last year in limited time. But, he was leading the minors in K's and has good stuff. Would you believe me if I told you that he hardly walked many batters or gave up a lot of homers? His hit rate was ridiculously high and his DIPS was only 4.07. I mean, the Rays fielders must have been bird watching while he was on the mound. Again, just a reason to look past his ACTUAL ERA and think about ending your draft with him.

Randy Wolf

Let's remember he now pitches in Petco. It does wonders for Maddux, Peavy and Young. Prior and Wolf could be huge sleepers in 2008. Wolf's 4.73 ERA was awful but his DIPS ERA was a full run lower at 3.83. Keep him in mind as you fill out your roster.

DIPS ERA is a great indicator of a pitcher's true ability level. Pitching will always remain in the hands of their defense to an extent. But, pitchers who have low DIPS ERA's have the talent to succeed and repeat successful ERA's and WHIPs. On the flip side, pitcher's who have high DIPS ERA's got lucky in 2007 or were helped immensely by their defense. The truth will come out eventually.

End of an Era in Miami: Dolphins Cut Zach Thomas Loose

Jason Sarney — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 12:25:32 -0500

The Miami Dolphins released Zach Thomas last week, ending his 12 year run with the only franchise he has ever known.

The new Miami regime made the decision, no doubt based on Thomas’ recent concussion issues.

He has not been the same spark plug middle linebacker Miami fans knew and grew to admire since 2006, and unfortunately, it was time.

Thomas, an under-sized, yet over-achieving middle linebacker, was drafted in the fifth round in the 1996 NFL Draft, the 154th overall selection, out of Texas Tech. He immediately became a fan favorite as it seemed he was in on every tackle the Miami Defense recorded. His stopping the run, dropping back in pass coverage, and taking the occasional ball to the house, have Dolphin fans collectively reminiscing today.

With a year remaining on his contract, Thomas will look for employment with a contender, should there be a roster spot for him. As a lifelong Dolphin fan, I can only pray that contender doesn’t play their home games in Massachusetts. It would be a devastating blow to “Miami Die-Hards.”

We’ve suffered enough, haven’t we?

If Thomas plays in 2008, I hope he succeeds, and if the Dolphins can’t pull a miraculous run to a Super Bowl title, then I hope the team he is on wins it…other than that team in Massachusetts of course.

If I had my way, I would like to see him on a NFC contender like Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, or Seattle, to name a few. If he wears a Jet, Bill or Patriot jersey, I don’t know what I would do. How would I be able to root against one of my all-time favorite players, on a rival team no less?

So that’s it. The Dolphins defense is no longer anchored by the seven time Pro-Bowler.

No more juggernaut-like plugs into the gaps of the defensive line preventing a first down. No more sideline to sideline pursuits of premier running backs. No more swan dives into the end zone after taking back a “pick 6.”

For 12 years, Zach Thomas led the Miami defense, and in his prime, anchored one of the NFL’s most fearsome units. While defense reigned supreme in South Florida, offense lacked in the Post-Marino era, and few players did more for the Dolphins, than Zach Thomas.

There have been many debates if Thomas ranks among the greats. Is he a Hall-of-Famer, or just a gritty, football player who had a nose for the ball? Well, I say it is certainly the former.

In the last 12 seasons, you would be hard pressed to find a better middle linebacker than Zach Thomas. If you could, you would be able to count them on one hand. And you wouldn’t even need all of those digits.

The only middle linebacker that shoots instantly out as a Hall of Fame player is Ray Lewis. There aren’t many decade long consistent forces at the position, better than Thomas. I will not be the only Dolphin fan who will miss number 54.

I can only hope he ends up on a tolerable team, which I can still enjoy watching him plug those gaps. If not another team, I wish him well, and would bet good money to see him pop up on one of the networks as an analyst.

I don’t know if Canton on the horizon, but one thing is for sure…He more than deserves it.

Thanks Zach.

Fantasy Baseball: Expert Mock Draft

Jason Sarney — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 12:22:45 -0500

Last Thursday, the crew over at Mock Draft Central invited me to participate in their Expert’s Dynasty Mock Draft.

Here are the particulars. 12 teams, 5x5 scoring and a starting line up of C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, five OF’s, MI, CI, DH and nine P’s (starting or relief).

I drew the fifth overall pick, and the moment I was given that selection, only one name jumped into my mind; David Wright, the New York Mets third baseman.

I figured that starting out my Dynasty with a .320+ average, 30-30 potential and well over 100 RBI and runs was a perfect first pick.

Then I realized that this year’s draft (especially the top five picks) could go in a number of different directions. With five legitimate contenders for the No. 1 overall pick, I was crossing my fingers hoping that I would land the 25 year old, future National League MVP; perhaps much sooner than later, like in 2008. Oh, by the way, that is my official NL MVP prediction. And I am sticking to it!

Unfortunately, I had to go to my contingency plan two picks before I heard those four words, “now…it’s your turn!”

Now…it’s baseball season!

Hanley Ramirez was the first player off the draft board, followed by Alex Rodriquez. The next pick was Wright, followed by his Mets teammate, Jose Reyes. Now what? No worries.

Round 1, pick 5 - Matt Holliday: OF/ COL I could do a whole lot worse at No. 5 calling Matt Holliday a back-up plan. I have him as the clear cut top OF in fantasy. With a starting set of five OF’s, I had to lock up the best in the business. Playing at Coors Field gives a major boost to Holliday’s power numbers, as the vast majority of his long bombs come at home. No fear about road woes for Holliday, since he hit above .300 away from the friendly confines of Colorado. Home or away, I see him hitting closer to 40 bombs than 30 this season , and if he gets a few more steals, we can be looking at next season’s No. 1 overall fantasy pick.

Round 2, pick 20 - Jake Peavy: SP / S.D

I had Johan Santana targeted on the queue, although I knew in this draft room, no one would pass up on Johan a pick or two into the second round. He was selected 14th overall, and once again I found myself settling for my second choice. Let me ask if settling for the 2007 NL CY Young is a bad thing? Peavy led the NL in all the major pitching categories in 2007, notching 19 wins, posting a 2.54 ERA and utterly embarrassing 240 strikeout victims. I really don’t see a significant falloff in any of these numbers, although I can guarantee he won’t run the table in leading the league in all three. National League, welcome Mr. Santana.

Round 3, pick 29 - Alex Rios: OF / TOR

My next selection was a tough pick. I could have gone a number of ways, maybe a strong corner infielder or middle infielder, maybe another ace pitcher. I delayed picking pitchers, temporarily, knowing I have an anchor to my fantasy staff in Peavy. I had to build on offense early, recognizing I had targeted some mid-draft, high value pitchers. I’ll admit I was close to taking Philadelphia lefty Cole Hamels. Although there are not many better young keeper aces out their, I saw another young keeper ready to maximize his potential this season, but on the offensive side. Rios is a “do it all” fantasy player, and will get me close to a .290 average and a very realistic chance at a 20-20 season. A good line-up, a good hitter’s park, and the fact that Rios is turning that magic age of 27 in a few weeks, makes him my No. 3 choice.

Round 4, pick 44 - Travis Hafner: DH / CLE

Don’t judge Hafner on his sub-par 2007 season. The question is, will this year be more like his 2006 campaign when he knocked out 42 home runs and drove in 117 runs, or closer to his last season’s stat line? I would bank on over 30 home runs, with a possibility of 40 well in reach. I’m not going to chalk up a .300 average at this time, but I certainly well expect huge RBI numbers.

Round 5, pick 53 - Ian Kinsler: 2B / TEX

A number of factors led to this selection. First and foremost, I need some more speed. I liked where my power numbers were heading with Holliday, Rios and Hafner, so I wanted to focus on steals without sacrificing power. You can never have enough power. I have a proclivity for 20-20 hitters. Can you blame me? My second reason was that the time to draft a 2B was now, especially since this is a very thin position after the top five or six rounds. The third reason was that a 25 year old middle infielder who puts up a healthy mix of power and speed is a perfect Dynasty selection. Average Warning - The only drawback to Kinsler. This could even cost him a round or two in some leagues.

Round 6, pick 68 - Brad Hawpe / COL This was an admittedly questionable pick. I know I am reaching a round or two here, but Hawpe’s power is too good to pass up now. With Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Troy Tulowitzki hitting in front of him, the RBI number can be huge. His average of about .280 won’t hurt me, and if he can knock out 30 home runs again, this was a worthwhile selection at six. In addition, having three very strong starting outfielders six rounds deep is rarely a bad thing when starting five.

Round 7, pick 77- Carlos Guillen 1B/SS / DET

I am a big fan of flexibility. There is only one thing better than players with multiple position eligibility, and that is, Good players with multiple position eligibility! I drafted Guillen as my 1B, but that SS/MI option is huge. He is getting up there in age, but the Tigers lineup is ferocious, to say the very least. The runs and RBI number alone could prove his worth in spades. Decent steal potential, solid average, that massively potent line-up and his position eligibility make Guillen a solid, yet safe choice in the seventh.

Round 8, pick, 92 - Nick Swisher 1B/OF / CHI (AL) I love this pick. A new team and a new ballpark is just what Swisher needs to reach the level many expect him to be at. At 27 years old, it is Swisher’s time to prove he is the prospect many thought he could be. Over 30 home runs, 100 runs and 100 RBIs will certainly silence critics, and more than certainly make owners very pleased with his value anywhere past the seventh round. Like Kinsler, that average is nothing to celebrate about, but the rewards greatly outweigh the risk.

Round 9, pick 101 - Shane Victorino OF /PHI Did anyone draft Victorino earlier than the 15th round last season? If you say yes, you are either a fantasy baseball prophet, or you are simply lying. Victorino officially arrived as a fantasy gem in terms of steals. In a lineup that includes Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell, Victorino should be running across home plate quite often in 2008. Draft him for his speed and run potential. With the flexibility of Swisher as either a CI or an OF, Victorino could be my 5th outfielder.

Round 10, pick 116 - J.J. Hardy SS/ MIL

I will be one of the first to tell you that Hardy’s surge of power at the start of last season was uncharacteristic for the Brewers shortstop. You can safely expect close to 20 home runs this season, but hopes of 30+ are a little too far fetched to bank on. I see Hardy as an adequate MI whose reward is much greater than the risk. Besides, anyone who is holding a bat in Milwaukee’s line-up has a great chance to knock in plenty of base runners and cross the plate themselves.

Round 11, pick 125- John Maine SP /NY (NL) I know what you are thinking…Where are the pitchers? Let me explain my logic. Peavy in the second round is almost like having two mid round pitchers. You can always find a pool of talented young arms in the middle rounds. Lucky for me, there was still a decent crop left. I decided to start with building the rest of my staff with Mets youngster. The question is, which John Maine did I draft? Did I select the lights out Maine from the first few months of the season? Was it the post all-star break Maine, who’s ERA nearly doubled from the first half of the season? Or...maybe, just maybe I drafted the Maine who was gutsy and gritty enough to toss a no hitter two outs into the seventh inning, in a must win game for the free falling Mets in September. Maine did his job. Tom Glavine did not. Thanks Tom. Which Maine is it, you ask? As objectively as possible, I am going to say somewhere in between the 1st and 3rd version. Maine as a keeper pick in the 11th? Oh, yea. I’ll take that alright. And another thing…Maine could be the 4th starter in the Mets rotation, and that would take a lot of pressure off of him.

Round 12, pick 140– Chad Cordero RP /WAS My initial strategy was to “punt” saves, and draft young middle relievers very late, in hopes they would start closing later this season or at the start of 2009. I looked at who was available, and I looked at who I already had. I was happy with my power/speed combination, so guys like Michael Bourn for steals or Jim Thome for power were not that appealing to me. So I decided to go for it, and get some saves under my belt. Cordero is a mid-tier closer who should get me 30 plus saves. His other pitching numbers might hurt a bit, but I couldn’t see sacrificing an entire stat category. Besides, I had two others closers queued up to round out the standard trio of “save” guys.

Round 13, pick 149 – Jeff Francis SP/ COL

At 27 years old, this season can catapult the lefty into upper echelon status, or inversely, can make him labeled as just another Rockies pitcher you would be better off avoiding on draft day. I am putting my faith on the former. The Rockies are a great offensive team, coming off a National League Championship, so that will translate into upper teen win totals. Francis needs to up his K total and lower the WHIP and ERA numbers if he is to be known as a reliable fantasy starter, but as my No. 3 in a deep keeper league, I will take a shot on him.

Round 14, pick 164 – Jeremy Bonderman SP /DET I admit that Bonderman burned me last season. I drafted him in a league or two, and traded for him in another league. Last year he followed up a 9-1 start with a 2-8 stretch that had many swan diving off the Bonderman bandwagon. I have one foot off the wagon, and I am holding on for dear life. I will happily accept Bonderman as a high risk/reward keeper in the 14th round. The potent Tigers offense will be scoring runs in bushels, so Detroit pitchers can breathe a lot easier than others. If Bonderman can get back to his 2006 performance stature, then the value of this pick is through the roof, and I will be in great shape with my starting staff.

Round 15, pick 173 - Kelly Johnson 2B/ ATL

After a moderate run of pitching picks, I wanted to start adding depth to the offense. With my middle infield slot open, I wanted a young high rising player with that power/speed combo I covet. Johnson is the guy, and in the 15th round, I love this value in a dynasty league. Over 20 home runs and 15 steals is a very optimistic outlook to the young Brave’s second baseman, yet very obtainable. Lots of runs and a decent .278-.285 average are nice bonuses to Johnson’s fantasy value.

Round 16, pick 188 – Kevin Gregg RP /FLA OK, back to the pitchers. Gregg, who is entering the season as the Marlin’s closer, is a steal at 16th, at least I think. We are talking 30 saves or more, potentially, and with the Marlins loving to trade, he can find himself closing for a contender. Gregg’s value is not as high as other closers due to his higher than normal ERA and WHIP. Thankfully, Gregg is a closer who struck out more batters than innings pitched…So much on the “punt” strategy. Now if I can just find a third closer.

Round 17, pick 197 – Rich Harden SP OAK

I was thinking about waiting it out, seeing if Harden would have slipped down to the later rounds, say 20th or 21st. I decided the upside potential of 2008, and the keeper value alone for 2009 and beyond was way too enticing to pass up. I can’t guarantee that he stays healthy all season, but if he returns to form when he was considered a CY Young candidate a few seasons ago, many owners will be thrilled. If you see Harden in any league available this low, I implore you to draft him without hesitating.

Round 18, pick 212 - Pedro Martinez SP/ NY (NL)

This pick was as easy as the previous. Pedro, who is not even the Mets ace anymore thanks to Johan Santana’s arrival in the Big Apple, will have a respectable year in 2008. The Mets are the clear team to beat in the National League, and it appears their pitching staff is going to power them through the season. Having that offense can’t hurt.

Round 19, pick 221- Casey Blake 3B /CLE I noticed that I did not draft a third basemen yet…a little late, right? Maybe not. Watch out for Casey Blake this season. As one of my sleepers of the season, Blake is in a stacked AL Central lineup and is a much better hitter than most other 18th round CI’s. Think .285 and 23 home runs, depending on his number of at bats.

Round 20, pick 236 – Zack Greinke SP /KC

What can I say about this kid? All the talent in the world was outweighed by some mental issues that led to a disastrous 17 loss 2005 season. This was a far cry from his respectable and promising rookie season. After working his off-field issues out, with a stint in the Royal’s bullpen in 2007, I am truly hoping for Greinke’s arrival as a force in the game. It would be a great story for him to turn things back around, and get his career on track. A 24 year old who is looking to get his career back on track? Could be worse, right? He could be 28.

Round 21, pick 245 – A.J. Pierzynski C/ CHI (AL) It was definitely time for me to draft a catcher, especially since we start two. I have never been the guy to take Joe Mauer in the third, or Russell Martin, Brian McCann or Victor Martinez for that matter. I have nothing against any of them, but it’s just not my style. Outside of the top few catchers, it is really a crap shoot. Pierzynski delivers consistent numbers. I could have gone with the consistent Jorge Posada 14 rounds earlier, but value -wise, I did not think it was the right call. I just need to find a decent No. 2 catcher. There are not many left at this point in the draft.

Round 22, pick 260 - Nate McLouth OF/ PIT At this stage in the draft, I tried to get some depth, sleeper potential and long term keeper value. I like McLouth to cover at least two out of three here. Look beyond the putrid batting average and see a guy who can deliver double-digit home runs and steals. Give him a season with a full time job, and if he improves on his batting average he could be a nice deep sleeper pick.

Round 23, pick 269 - Mike Cameron OF/ MIL

I know Cameron starts 2008 of with a 25 game suspension, but I see nothing wrong with stashing him on my bench “just in case.” As I referenced earlier, any Brewer is a safe fantasy play, depending on the round you select him of course. Like McLouth, Cameron can provide spot play value, and he is a nice source of cheap speed and power. Another batting average risk, but with the OF I drafted earlier, all Cameron is on this team is a back up. . . A good one at that too, at the fifth OF or DH slots.

Round 24, pick 284- Chris Duncan OF/ STL

Give Chris Duncan a full season, and give him a spot on your roster. The last two seasons, Duncan knocked out more than 20 home runs, while never reaching 400 at bats. Imagine a starting Duncan, getting 500 at bats, while hitting in between Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus. Simple math says that 500 at bats at Duncan’s last two-year HR per AB ratio means 30 home runs for my 23rd pick.

Round 25, pick 293 - Jamie Walker RP /BAL

I had him queued up for 10 rounds, and no one took him. I like Walker as this season’s Kevin Gregg. He is looking to start the season as the O’s closer, and a steady job could equal 20 saves. That steady job is no certainty, but I’m not afraid of the risk.

Round 26, pick 308 - Heath Bell RP/ SD

An aging Trevor Hoffman could lead to an open door for Bell, who is already a standout middle reliever for the Padres.

Round 27, pick 317 – Mike Jacobs 1B /FLA

Home run potential at the backend of the draft is always nice. Jacobs can turn out to be a score of a deep sleeper.

Round 28, pick 332 – Johnny Estrada C/ WAS This pick is nothing special. I simply waited too long for that second catcher slot. Maybe Estrada can make the most of a Ted Yost-less dugout.

Round 29, pick 341 – Ian Stewart 2B /COL If Stewart can stay the Rocks’ 2B the entire season, this could be the keeper gem of the later rounds.

Round 30, pick 356 – Joe Saunders SP/ ANA

I have picked up Saunders at the end of each of the last two seasons and he was decent, and at times very solid. The Angels equal wins, and I could have done a lot worse with my Mr. Insignificant.

Well that’s it, the first of many, many mock drafts as we head into the 2008 Major League Baseball Season. If you are curious to see how the entire draft played out, please click here. Thanks again to the guys over at MDC. Happy mock drafting!

For more fantasy baseball news, information and out-side-of-the-box analysis check out, http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/

Fantasy Football: Luck or Skill?

Jason Sarney — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 12:20:19 -0500

Is there a possibility that Fantasy Football is a “skill?”

Or is it the way of the more conventional thinker to call it luck?

I prefer to look at this ever growing phenomenon as a new sports art form, combining knowledge, strategy and persistence with just a pinch of good fortune.

Why do some people care so much about something they have absolutely no control over? Well, the think is…You do have control.

Many argue that Fantasy Football is a crap shoot, a gamble….pure luck. It is not luck! Luck is involved of course, just as any NFL team who stays healthy enough throughout the course of the season, is lucky to have done so. Preseason contenders for the Super Bowl have to endure injuries week by week.

It is the strength and depth of the overall team that dictates the chances of that “unlucky” injury becoming a bump in the road, or a major road block. For the fantasy aspect of this reasoning, the same holds true.

The savvy foresight of an NFL executive in charge of player personnel requires scouting players who can help his team succeed. If a star quarterback goes down, is the sixth round pick out of a no name college ready to step in, step up and lead his team? Many times, this scenario can spell disaster for an NFL team, and a season can be lost. Yet, if that backup proves worthy for five weeks and hands the reigns back to the incumbent after going 3-2, or better, two people have to be commended. The back up QB and the GM, or whoever it was who drafted that player.

As in the NFL, fantasy league championships are won during preparation, and solidified by the desire to go out and do whatever it is in your power to be the best. Like anything in life, the more you put into a situation, the more you are likely to get out of it.

For the addicts, weeks can be made with a 60 yard touchdown run by LaDainian Tomlinson (12 points) on Monday Night to clinch a hard fought match-up. That week can be a bit more pleasant after such a sweet victory.

Conversely, there are those people whose lives are not affected in the least by a win, loss or mere thought that others are actually wasting their time on this. Personally, I do not have a care in the world for who wins Survivor, The Bachelor, or whether or not Angelina Jolie is pregnant.

In a large number of leagues across the country, there is that one guy, and everyone knows this guy-- who never makes a transaction, leaves his bye week players in the starting line up, rarely gets himself involved in the post board banter, and the ultimate fantasy football faux pas, never approves, declines or counters trade offers.

My hope is that in most leagues, this guy is non-existent.

There are fantasy players out there who take extreme pride in beating their friend’s, their father-in-law, their sibling, or even their boss. Generally speaking, the fantasy players with the highest level of pride in this game have the greatest skill.

This is a skill, although not an exact science. The players, who know the ins and outs of fantasy draft day, waiver wire and trade front success, are the players most likely to win. These players won’t be pinned up against a potential wall in Week 8, when their first two picks are running backs, both of who are both on bye weeks.

Success in fantasy football is a matter of doing your homework, if you care to do so. Look at schedules late in the year for the players you target. Guys who can win you week after week early on can see stifling defenses weeks 14-16 in the fantasy playoffs. It is not the end of the world if you do this. Just trade and strengthen your team for the playoff push. Trust me, not all owners will take weeks 14-16 into consideration, unless you are in a league amongst experts. In this case, let the best player win.

The first incentive, and most popular, is the size of the reward. Some leagues are free, and just for fun, which is all well and good. I was in a baseball fantasy league where the winner got a jersey of his favorite player. Nice idea, but not my style.

Many leagues have moderate entry fees that range from 10-50 bucks to well over 100 bucks a team. For the ultra saver, and in many cases, one team can have two owners. Of course all across such leagues, these “dues” or “fees” are pre-determined by the participants, the leagues commissioner, or both.

The second incentive, sometimes more important than any monetary reward, is the ultimate motivator - pride. To win a fantasy league does not necessarily mean you belong on Yahoo.com dictating to the fantasy world who to draft in the fifth round, when to take the best defense off the board or who the ultimate sleeper candidate will be.

Fantasy football is what you make of it. The possibility of beating a bunch of friends, getting some holiday spending money, or holding your head a bit higher when your favorite real life team is heading for a disastrous year, is a great source of sports-banter pride. Unless you won your league, but your real team finished 1-15 and you are arguing with a fan whose team just won the Super Bowl.

I love my real football team inordinately more than the any of my fantasy football teams Yet, for the last few seasons, my effort, pride and good fortune in fantasy football has put a temporary bandage over the anguish of the undying fact… I am a Miami Dolphins fan!

To all the fantasy sport loyalists’, young and old, male or female, good luck in your fantasy endeavors and in 2008. Although I am quite upset that the fantasy football season is long gone, at least there is some solace knowing that pitchers and catchers report soon!

Fantasy Baseball: The Relevance of Contact Rate

Jason Sarney — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 11:31:41 -0500

It's hard to say what the most important offensive statistic is in 5x5 standard roto-leagues.

Some may say power is the way to win a league, while others tend to load up on average and speed.

No matter what your strategy, one thing is for certain—guys who can be counted on as locks to bat over .300 are immensely valuable to your fantasy team.

Mind you, if a hitter bats over .300 in a season, they are not 100 percent locks to meet or exceed that total the following year. When looking at which .300+ hitters from last season are most likely to meet or exceed their total in 2008, I took a deeper look into players contact rate.

Contact rate is a simple formula which is really as easy as it sounds. At bats minus strikeouts divided by at bats.

(AB's-K's) /AB's

This basically means the percentage of times the particular batter makes contact with ball, whether they are successful in recording a hit or not. Take walks completely or hit by pitch out of this equation.

I analyzed this stat for the sole purpose of pointing out who has the best chances at batting over .300 in 2008.

First off, lets look at the top hitters from last season with at least 500 ABs. (The stats you see are batting average -at bats - contact rate.)

Magglio Ordonez RF DET .363 595 87 percent
Ichiro Suzuki RF SEA .351 678 89 percent
Placido Polanco 2B DET .341 587 95 percent
Matt Holliday LF COL .340 636 80 percent
Jorge Posada C NYY .338 506 81 percent
Chipper Jones 3B ATL .337 513 85 percent
Chase Utley 2B PHI .332 530 83 percent
Hanley Ramirez SS FLA .332 639 85 percent
David Ortiz DH BOS .332 549 81 percent
Albert Pujols1B STL .327 565 90 percent
David Wright 3B NYM .325 604 81 percent
Mike Lowell 3B BOS .324 589 88 percent
Vladimir Guerrero RF ANA .324 574 89 percent
Derek Jeter SS NYY .322 639 84 percent
Miguel Cabrera 3B DET .320 588 78 percent

You will notice I bolded Placido Polanco and Albert Pujols. I did so because they were the only two of the top 15 with a 90 percent contact rate. You'll also notice Cabrera and his 78-percent CR. Forget about him. This is a guy who once took a cut while being intentionally walked.

Since it is safe to project more of the same from the rest of the upper echelon of within this category, I wanted to look a bit deeper.

I wanted to see how many hitters in 2007 had both a batting average above .300 as well as a CR above 90 percent. This is not a long list. Based on these numbers, it would be a great indicator what to expect from them in 2008.

Placido Polanco 2B DET .341 587 95 percent
Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS .317 520 92 percent
Luis Castillo 2B NYM .301 548 92 percent
Orlando Cabrera SS CHW .301 638 90 percent
Carlos Lee LF HOU .303 627 90 percent
Albert Pujols 1B STL .327 565 90 percent
Jose Vidro DH SEA .314 548 90 percent

So what does this list tell me? It tells me to bank on Pujols and Polanco to do what they usually do. It also says that even though Carlos Lee barely hit over the mark at .303, I would safely say that average could increase in '08, maybe in the .310 range. El Caballo is a steal anywhere past mid round 2. If you are that last pick in snake style roto drafts, and Lee is on the board, you must select him.

Now do I draft Castillo, Cabrera, or Vidro any higher than normal because of their high CR and over .300 average? No, but it would be nice to scoop them up late to stash on my bench, if average is a latter issue for my team.

Last but not least, it tells me that Dustin Pedroia could be reaching higher batting numbers than last seasons .317 rookie campaign. And he can do it, for years. Hello, keeper.

Next up...finding out which hitters are not that likely to replicate their over .300 2007. I say not likely based on a CR of under 80 percent last year. I moved that AB minimum to 400 for this section, as each of the following should finish above the 500 at bat range in 2008.

Hunter Pence CF HOU .322 456 79 percent
Marlon Byrd CF TEX .307 414 79 percent
Mark Teixeira 1B ATL .306 494 77 percent
Curtis Granderson CF DET .302 612 77 percent
Ryan Braun 3B MIL .324 451 75 percent
B.J. Upton CF TB .300 474 68 percent

You may not find a bigger Ryan Braun fan than me. However...while I believe that his power and speed combo will more than prove his 2nd round worth, I am not banking on a .320+ or even a .310+ average through a full season from the National Leagues reigning Rookie of the Year. I just hope he stays above .300, because a full season doesn't guarantee it.

B.J. Upton had a terrible CR rate of 68 percent last year. A really terrible rate. He had the same CR percent as average killer Adam Dunn, who hit .264 in '07, pretty much matching his career high. The only other notable full time player who posted a CR percent lower than Upton was Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard, who came in at a 62 percent CR and a .268 average. Hey...you draft him for 50+ homers, not for his average, right?

As for Pence and Byrd, think more towards a .290 average rather than above .300. Since Teixeira and Granderson just slid in the .300+ club, I am going to say that this club denies both men membership in 2008. Barely.

After looking even further, I looked at some up and coming high average hitters. Take a look at the following few sleepers, all in between 300-450 AB's last season, and all looking at increased roles as full time contributors this season.

Casey Kotchman 1B ANA .296 443 90 percent
James Loney 1B LA .331 344 86 percent
Conor Jackson 1B ARI .284 415 88 percent
Andre Ethier LF LA .284 447 85 percent

Joe Torre has a nice crop of young talent ready to explode on the Left Coast, like Loney and Ethier. Loney will hit above .300 based on his 86 percent CR so don't think more AB's will drastically change that high .331 average from last season. Look for Ethier to make average his calling card, with modest stats in the other roto categories making him a solid overall fantasy player.

Major sleeper alert out for Conor Jackson, now that he will see many more AB's since Tony Clark is now in San Diego.

On the flip side, let’s look at some young hitters also looking at more playing time this season. Watch out for these poor CR hitters, even though they had respectable batting averages in '07.

Jeremy Hermida RF FLA .296 429 76 percent
Matt Kemp CF LA .343 292 77 percent
Josh Hamilton CF TEX .292 298 78 percent
Mark Reynolds 3B ARI .279 366 65 percent

I have to admit, I still like all of these hitters despite their low average projections. Come draft day, don't be fooled by these nice looking averages from a year ago. Not going to happen in 2008.
I love Hermida and Kemp this season for their overall 5x5 value, but averages of both will be closer to .275 then they are to .300.

Same goes for Josh Hamilton and Mark Reynolds. These guys will give you power, but expect averages topping off at .280. Not terrible, but not .300.

Fantasy Baseball: Second-Half Batting Average Surges

Jason Sarney — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 16:31:47 -0500

By Brett Greenfield:

A high post-break batting average can often be an indicator of a hitter's average in the following year.

Today, we'll browse through and later on examine some hitters who had both 140+ AB's post-break and a .340 AVG. or better.

Using 2006 as a predictor for 2007, there were several guys who fit the bill. 11 players hit .340 or better in the second half of the 2006 season.

Nine of those 11 went on to hit over .295 in the 2007 season. So this could work.

The only two hitters who finished 2006 by hitting .340 or higher and went on to have awful batting averages in 2007 were Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard.

The hitters who finished 2006 by hitting .340 or higher and then went on to bat .295 or higher in 2007 were Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Vladmir Guerrero, Chipper Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Carlos Guillen, Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada.

Some of those players were not considered "sure things" to repeat their batting average success in 2007 like Atkins, Cano, Chipper, and Tejada. But they did. Maybe they discovered their swing during the second half of 2006.

Since last year's experiment had an 82 percent success rate (9/11) it should be worth looking into again for 2008 predictions.

Post All-Star break in 2007, there were not 11, but 21 hitters who reached 140+ AB and batted .340 or better. They were:

Norris Hopper A .365 post-break should have guaranteed him a starting gig in 2008. Unfortunately until Griffey gets hurt or Dunn gets traded, Hopper will be riding the pine.

Chone Figgins He usually bats about .290. Last year he batted .361 post-break and ended with a .330 AVG. His 75 percent Contact Rate doesn't support that high of a batting average. Again, get him for steals and a dab of runs.

Magglio Ordonez Normally a .300 hitter, he led the league with a .363 AVG in 2007. He kept it up all year going .355 post-break. He should remain a .300 hitter, but a decline from .361 is highly likely.

Howie Kendrick He certainly made a splash when he came up batting .357 in limited time. An 85 percent Contact Rate makes his AVG more likely to remain at the .300 level of better in 2008. I'd not be surprised if he finished in the top 5 among 2B this year. Think ninth round.

Jack Wilson He's an interesting guy. For fantasy purposes he's as empty as a a dugout during a brawl. Hard to overlook however, a 7th best .356 post-break AVG. While he could bat .300 next year, I don't think you'll want him on your roster unless you've been a big fan of David Eckstein in the past.

Moises Alou and Chipper Jones The ageless wonders. Hugely undervalued hitters because they never give you 500 AB and they are getting up there in age. Both of these hitters can be had late and can have a great impact on your team's batting average. Think round eight for Chipper and round 17 for Alou.

David Ortiz He jumped from .287 to .331. He also dropped from 54 homers to 35. I'll take that trade off any day. He batted .352 post-break and scored 61 runs while driving in 65. Maybe he's starting to hit more line drives instead of fly balls at this point in his career? If he hit this well all season, expect another .300+ season from Big Papi.

David Wright Over the last four years we've seen his AVG increase from .292 to .306 to .311 to .325. Add to the mix a .364 AVG after the last year's break and we have reason enough to believe his AVG should continue to climb.

Mike Lowell His .324 average was mostly aided by a .350 post-break average. Part of me feels like he was playing for his new contract and part of me thinks having Ortiz and Manny on in front of him helped out a lot. I'm on the fence regarding Lowell in 2008.

Jorge Posada Let's see... A career .275 hitter playing for a contract last year. Despite hitting .355 post-break and finishing at .330, he's got to be my #1 candidate to not finish with a .300+ AVG in 2008.

Jeremy Hermida Who doesn't want him to do well? We all had high aspirations for him going into 2006 but nothing came of it. Can the post-hype sleeper have a solid 2008? If his second half of 2007 is any indicator, the answer is yes. While his .340 post-break AVG is rather high, a .300 AVG seems realistic.

Some of the 21 hitters who maintained a .340+ post-break AVG in 2007 while amassing 140 or more AB's are not surprising. Here is a quick list of the hitters who usually bat .295 or better.

Carl Crawford
Michael Young
Albert Pujols
Ichiro
Garrett Atkins
Jose Vidro
Placido Polanco
Chase Utley
Robinson Cano

If 82 percent of these hitters were to bat .295 or better in 2008, just like 82 percent of them did in 2007, that would mean 4 of the 21 would not. If I had to choose four of these aforementioned hitters to not bat over .295 next year they would be...

1.Jorge Posada
2. Chone Figgins
3. Jeremy Hermida
4. Jack Wilson

Treat the rest as if they will bat .295 or better, helping your team tremendously in the AVG department.

Gallardo Out 4 Weeks

Jason Sarney — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 10:31:18 -0500

According to a TMJ Milwaukee, pitching phenom Yovanni Gallardo is expected to miss 4 weeks with a torn lateral meniscus.

What does that mean to you?

Non-Keeper Leagues

If your draft is coming up in the next few weeks, Gallardo must be bumped down several rounds. In missing four weeks, he will essentially miss all of or most of spring training. In turn, he will either return four weeks from now and likely start slowly in April as he strengthens his arm and knee. Or, the injury could take longer to heal and he could miss more time. It is very risky to draft an injured pitcher regardless of how much upside he may have.

Keeper Leagues

If you are considering keeping Gallardo, regardless of your format, I wouldn't change your mind based on this injury. Keeper leagues present more of a long-term outlook on the players you hold onto from year to year. While there is a strong chance Gallardo gets off to a slow start in 2008, there is an even stronger chance that he helps your team and gives you numbers you were expecting prior to the torn meniscus.

Chris over at the Disabled List has some added insight into the Yovanni Gallardo situation and how it may effect your team.

MLB ERA's: What You See Is What You Get

Jason Sarney — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 23:51:17 -0500

By Brett Greenfield:

In response to the ERC article, a reader asked if any pitchers had ERA's that actually matched their ERC's. I thought it was a good question and did some investigating.

142 pitchers finished 2007 with 100+ innings.

12% of them had ERA/ERC discrepancies that were off by 15-25%.

77% of them had ERA/ERC discrepancies that were off by 2-14%

11% of them had ERA/ERC discrepancies that were off by 1%

In my last article I discussed the 12% of pitchers who had noticeable differences between their ERA and ERC.

Now I will recognize those who had 1% or less of a difference between their ERA and ERC.

The following pitchers can be labeled as "What You See Is What You Get" because their ERA and ERC are within 1% of each other:

Adam Eaton: 6.29 ERA and 6.37 ERC. He doesn't come highly recommended.

Nate Robertson: 4.76 ERA and 4.81 ERC. See Adam Eaton.

John Smoltz: 3.11 ERA and 3.13 ERC. Maybe more pitchers should spend their 30's closing games and then as they move into their 40's revert back to being a starter.

Curt Schilling: 3.76 ERA and 3.81 ERC. He's seen better days.

Jake Westbrook: 4.32 ERA and 4.34 ERC. As close as it gets. He'll be the first to admit that he's not hiding anything. He's not a bad option to round out your rotation. Start him at home where his ERA's over the last two years have been 1-2 runs lower than his road ERA.

Aaron Cook: are you kidding me? He's never reached double digit wins and in his one healthy season where he reached 200+ innings, he tallied a paltry 92 strikeouts. I'd draft Dane Cook first.

Scott Baker: 4.26 ERA and 4.23 ERC. With the departures of Garza, Santana and Silva, a rotation spot is his to lose. He could provide an ERA close to 4.00 and 160+ K's if he reached 200 innings. Not a bad guy to back your fantasy rotation.

Carlos Zambrano: 3.95 ERA and 3.91 ERC. At least there is some consensus that he's not getting better as the Cubs continue to overwork him. 2008 could be the year his ERA finally gets into the 4.00's. Despite pitching the same amount of innings in 2006 and 2007, last year Big Z managed 35 less strikeouts. His WHIP was also the highest of his 6-year career.

A thanks to Brian R. for the email suggestion. At least we found 8 pitchers that Component ERA didn't effect in 2007.