Bleacher Report - Articles by Kenny Mendes

Fantasy Baseball: Slight Discomfort Means Stay Away

Kenny Mendes — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 06:57:32 -0500

My roommate laughed at me when I told him risk management is one of the biggest factors to take into account in a fantasy draft.

“It’s impossible to predict injuries!” he argued.

Not so.

Freak injuries, yes. But, then again, we all know some players are more likely to get themselves into those situations than others. (See: Eric Byrnes. He’s due for one.)

Fantasy stardom comes when managers pay attention to the little bits of news that most overlook. We have not played a single Spring Training game and there are already a handful of guys I am removing from my fantasy lists that most people are still high on.

Believe it or not, Albert Pujols is an easy one to avoid in 2008. The Cardinals are worried that his elbow will blow out this season, and he seems less optimistic than a first-round candidate should be.

"If it blows out, it blows out. You can't control that," Pujols said.

So, manage your risk. Stay away from Pujols.

Carlos Beltran played on two bad knees in 2007, battling patellar tendonitis. Beltran underwent offseason surgery but still has not fully recovered. The latest reports suggest that he is unable to sprint or even push off with his legs to round the bases.

Though he is usually a safe bet to be a solid fantasy contributor, a first-round draft pick in 2008 is definitely not worthwhile.

Another easy candidate to avoid this year is Brad Lidge, who recently underwent a second knee surgery after tweaking the same one he had cleaned up in the offseason. It looks like Tom Gordon will be taking on the closing role, and he is also a big risk as he is playing with pain in his shoulder—the same pain that knocked him out of the closer job last year.

On Tuesday, Tampa Bay Ray’s ace Scott Kazmir missed a scheduled intrasquad game due to discomfort in his pitching elbow.

“It was just a little scary because I never felt it before,” Kazmir said.

It may just be the normal aches and pains of Spring Training, but a risk-averse fantasy player knows he can likely capitalize on a solid, less risky player during the same round that Kazmir would be taken. His solid second half in 2007 has a lot of people predicting a big year from him, and if the Rays try to keep his elbow issues quiet, people will continue to pay a high price for him until he suddenly lands on the disabled list.

Milwaukee starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo, who showed a great deal of promise in his 2007 rookie year (9-5, 3.67 ERA, 101 K, 110.1 IP), recently tore cartilage in his left knee and underwent arthroscopic surgery. Though the Brewers say he is only expecting to miss four weeks of spring training, it will take him time to develop his arm strength and he will only gradually slide into the rotation.

He could still be an exceptional fantasy pitcher in 2008, but don’t take him before the middle rounds are well underway.

So, there you have a good list of names to be cautious with in your drafts. My roommate can laugh all he wants, but it is possible to draft carefully in 2008 and reap the rewards of the multitude of low-risk, high-contributor players available.

Fantasy Diamond is an Internet radio broadcast offering fantasy baseball insights and analysis to propel your team to the top in 2008. Visit the blog at www.fantasy-diamond.com for more content or to listen to the radio broadcast, or e-mail Kenny at Kenny@fantasy-diamond.com.

Rickie Weeks: 2008 Fantasy Superstar

Kenny Mendes — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 20:13:36 -0500

This is the year, everyone.

This is the year that Rickie Weeks claims his stake as an elite second baseman.

This time next year, we will be talking about him the way we talk about Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, and Brandon Phillips.

2007 was a down year for Weeks—but draft him now while his value is low.

The young star, who was drafted second overall in 2003, will be healthy and putting up amazing numbers this year.

Now, I’m not one to generally make stupid extrapolations—which I admit that this extrapolation here is—but I’ll do it here for emphasis. In September of last season, Weeks played in 28 games and hammered nine home runs, 14 RBI, and 10 stolen bases—while not getting caught once.

Oh, the 29 runs he scored in that span sound pretty good, too.

Now just imagine that by some miracle, he does that over 600 at-bats. That’s 177 runs, 55 home runs, 104 RBI, and 61 stolen bases. Hanley who?

Realistically, he won’t come close to this next year. But his performance in September shows you what he is capable of doing.

Here’s what you can expect in 2008: 500 at-bats or more with 15-20 home runs, 80-85 runs and RBI, and 35-45 stolen bases. By the way, you can find him on the clearance rack in most fantasy drafts this year—so jump on Rickie Weeks!

Come the end of the baseball season, I’ll be saying, “I told you so!” to all my competitors while holding up my imaginary trophy, and if—make that when—you take Rickie Weeks this year, you are setting yourself up for the same situation. Good luck!

Fantasy Diamond is an internet radio broadcast offering fantasy baseball insights and advice. The program encourages fan interaction, such as submission of fantasy drafts or trade proposals for on-air analysis. The Fantasy Diamond Blog compliments the radio broadcasts and presents fans with additional strategies to assemble and maintain a top-notch fantasy team in 2008. Visit the blog at www.fantasy-diamond.com to listen to the radio broadcast or e-mail Kenny at Kenny@fantasy-diamond.com.

Fantasy Baseball 2008: Shortstops

Kenny Mendes — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 16:14:20 -0500

Fantasy Baseball Radio Recap (Episode Five): Shortstops

Listen to the Original Episode

There seems to be a divide among fantasy baseball analysts when it comes to declaring the top shortstop in 2008.

I look at it this way—when someone asks me whom I like more, Hayden Panettiere or Rachel McAdams, I respond by saying, “That’s like asking me to pick between David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez!”

Based on last year’s performances, Alex Rodriguez is clearly better, but there’s nothing too shabby about David Ortiz, either. Perhaps I’d be better off substituting Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes instead of A-Rod and Big Papi in that debate, but that’s what the shortstop story comes down to this year—two very good players.

However, Hanley’s performance last year established one unheralded aspect of his repertoire—a limitless ceiling.

In his best year in the minors, he hit eight home runs through 422 at-bats, but in his first year with the Marlins, he shocked everyone by hitting 17.

There was a long line of skeptics saying that was a fluke and he likely wouldn’t reach that mark again. Yet last year, he mashed 29 home runs while stealing 51 bases for the second consecutive season and totaling 81 RBI from the leadoff spot.

So what’s Hanley going to do next year? 35 home runs? 40? If—make that when—he drops lower in the lineup, is he going to rake in even more RBI while still stealing bases?

This is what I mean by his limitless ceiling and why I argue that he has the clear-cut edge over Jose Reyes as the number one shortstop in 2008 fantasy drafts.

It comes as no surprise that he’s being drafted second overall in many expert drafts.

If you’ve got a chance to take Hanley in the first round and Alex Rodriguez is already taken, don’t think twice. No one really knows what Hanley will do next year, but we all say that he likely won’t disappoint.

Now what if Hanley and Reyes have both been taken?

Well, add Jimmy Rollins to the mix, as he swings it as well as those two and puts up stellar numbers in all categories.

Unfortunately, after those three, the wow-effect of shortstops disappears.

The second tier of elite shortstops includes Troy Tulowitzki and Derek Jeter, with Tulowitzki having much more upside between the two. Jeter’s power numbers have declined the last four years, and though he still is a solid fantasy contributor, his price likely exceeds his value in most drafts.

Expect big years from Carlos Guillen and Miguel Tejada in 2008.

Guillen has an All-Star lineup around him and should rake in triple digits in runs and home runs while posting 20-25 home runs and a solid batting average.

Tejada has a good chance of doing the same due his relocation to Houston, and though he is starting to show signs of decline, he’s a durable player who should play every day next year.

Year after year, Michael Young is consistently undervalued in fantasy drafts, and 2008 is no different.

He experienced a slight dip in power last year and some of his other numbers declined, but use this to your advantage. He will produce in 2008 and you can get him at a great price. Just don’t expect 20 home runs.

Stephen Drew is another undervalued shortstop that fell short of everybody’s expectations in 2007 but could post solid numbers this year and will not cost a high draft pick either.

Julio Lugo may also come with a low price tag in most drafts due to his extremely low batting average last year, but it should climb in 2008 and he puts up a good balance of all-around numbers hitting in Boston’s lineup. Think of him as a poor-man’s—a very, very poor man’s—Jose Reyes.

Interesting gambles this year include Edgar Renteria, who could post big numbers thanks to a great Detroit lineup, and Khalil Greene, who had a power surge in 2007 and should put up similar numbers this year.

If you find yourself up against a wall in this year’s draft and don’t have a shortstop late in the draft, consider the following players: Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Bartlett, Brendan Harris and Ryan Theriot. All have low price tags and should post solid, though not great, numbers this year.

Players to stay clear of in the draft include Rafael Furcal, who battled a bum ankle 2008 and is not worth the risk this year, J.J. Hardy, who may never return to his first-half form, and David Eckstein, who gets a lot of love, never puts up great numbers, and is an injury risk in 2008. I’m not very high on Orlando Cabrera either, who posted unusually high numbers last year and is unlikely to repeat.

Fantasy Diamond is an Internet radio broadcast offering fantasy baseball insights and advice. The program encourages fan interaction, such as submission of fantasy drafts or trade proposals for on-air analysis. The Fantasy Diamond Blog compliments the radio broadcasts and presents fans with additional strategies to assemble and maintain a top-notch fantasy team in 2008. Visit the Blog at www.fantasy-diamond.com to listen to the radio broadcast.

Fantasy Baseball Radio Recap, Episode Three: Closers

Kenny Mendes — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 19:11:48 -0500

Recipe to Successfully Drafting Closers

1. Acquire one stud closer

In the fifth round or later, jump on any one of the available select few stud closers.
Possible candidates include Jonathan Papelbon, J.J. Putz, Francisco Rodriguez, and Joe Nathan.

2. Acquire two or three mediocre closers

Players will provide solid saves though at a higher risk of default (dropping out of closer role, injury, etc.)
Possible candidates include Matt Capps, Manny Corpas, Kevin Gregg, Brad Lidge, and Huston Street.

3. Constant Vigilance (VERY IMPORTANT)

Closing role has a lot of changes. If you are one step ahead of the rest of your league, you'll make some very valuable free agent pickups. Keep an eye out for team announcements, watch box scores for new names picking up saves, and take time to read useful posts like this one!
Teams with iffy closing situations: Texas (C.J. Wilson, K. Fukomori), Chicago (Wood, Marmol, Howry), and Philadelphia (Brad Lidge, Tom Gordon)
You can expect at least one-third of teams to have substantial shifts in closing designations this year. If you can take advantage of this, use this expected increase in future saves to allow for more flexibility in your draft—stock up in other important positions like starting pitching.

Listen to the Original Episode

Fantasy Baseball Radio Recap - Episode 4: Second Base

Kenny Mendes — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 23:56:17 -0500

Listen to the Original Broadcast

Chase Utley, Chase Utley, Chase Utley. There's no way to stress how much of a grasp Utley has on being the best second baseman in the league simply for the fact that he produces year in and year out. He's being taken in the first round, and rightly so. He's definitely a low risk, high reward contributor who does come with a high sticker price. The good news is, if you don't get Utley, don't worry too much....it's not all ugly...just a little raw.

Robinson Cano will be a solid contributor next year, and most fantasy rankings have him as being the fourth or fifth best candidate at second, so look for getting a good deal on a good player there. B.J. Upton is a young guy with a lot of upside but there's a higher level of risk with him than some of the other upper-tier candidates. If you get him at a good price, feel pretty confident that he'll put up good numbers throughout the season.

You might not want to be one of the people paying a premium for Brandon Phillips who posted a strong 30-30 campaign in 2007. I have a feeling he won't match those numbers in the upcoming year, but I seem to be in the minority in that argument.

Look to get a good deal on Ian Kinsler, who should continue to improve and may be one of the league's better second baseman in 2008. The best bargain, however, might be Rickie Weeks, who had a really disappointing year in 2007 but turned it up in September and I feel he will put up a terrific 2008 campaign.

The good part about second base is that there are a lot of solid, solid players around the league at a very reasonable price. If you don't get one of the elite guys, just take it easy and snag someone like Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Brendan Harris, or Jose Vidro.

I'll finish off with two guys I recommend listeners to stay away from. Dan Uggla might be overpriced due to his big power year. 30-plus home runs are tough to come by from the second base slot, but it's not a necessity and you might not want him pulling down your batting average.

Jeff Kent, the other big no-no, is 39 years old and looks like he's just about ready to leave baseball to open up his own motorcycle store. He put up solid numbers last year but his reliability will definitely be something to follow in 2008 - just make sure it is one of your opponents following his health and not you!

Fantasy Baseball Radio Recap, Episode Two: First Base

Kenny Mendes — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 20:33:50 -0500

Original Air Date: February 15, 2008
Listen to the Original Episode

First base is a very deep and exciting position every year. There are a lot of low-risk, high value contributors that can really solidify a fantasy offense. Let's delve into who to look out for this year:

Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals was the original no-doubt favorite, stealing the first or second overall pick in drafts every year. Here at Fantasy Diamond, I'm going to advise you to stay away from him this year. (!!!!?)

He showed up at Spring Training and immediately the Cardinals became worried that his nagging elbow is still an issue.

"If it blows out, it blows out. You can't control that," Pujols said in response.

Not reassuring, Albert! So, seeing as though he'll be taken in the early rounds, and I recommend not taking big risks EVER in any of the early rounds, stay away from Albert. There's a plenty of other solid first basemen, like...

Philadelphia Phillies Ryan Howard is a front-runner in the first base category. He had injury problems last year but still posted awesome numbers, and you can expect the same if not better this year.

Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers was good when he got called up to the majors and got even better last year. It's hard to believe that he could get better this year—if he does, congrats to guys that draft him, and if he doesn't improve, oh well, he's a pretty safe bet to still put up terrific numbers. Power, RBI, and runs all with a solid batting average.

Boston Red Sox’ David Ortiz is a fantasy players dream, contributing a whopping amount of runs, RBI, and home runs. Last year, he played through injuries and still put up great numbers, though he did hit 35 home runs in 2007 as opposed to 54 in 2006. Still, expect a home run total in between those two numbers and an increase in the runs and RBI category.

Mark Teixeira of the Atlanta Braves is a solid, solid first baseman who enjoys playing in Atlanta and will put up big numbers, but his big second half got him a lot of attention so make sure you aren't one of the people overpaying for him.

First base sleepers:

Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres (Petco Park makes people forget about him)
Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox (Down year in 2007, Swisher adds more depth to lineup)
James Loney, LA Dodgers (*** big numbers coming up)
Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians (Hitting behind Martinez and Hafner)
Daric Barton, Oakland A’s (** Very cheap and very talented)
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds (A lot of hype, good ballpark to put up big numbers)

On a final note, stay away from Carlos Pena. He magically put up monster numbers in 2007, and just as magically will make them disappear in 2008. You've been warned...

Fantasy Baseball Radio Recap, Episode One: Catchers

Kenny Mendes — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 20:09:54 -0500

Original Air Date: February 14, 2008
Listen to the Original Episode

It’s my least favorite fantasy position, so let's get it out of the way early. There's one elite fantasy contributor who is worth the high price people pay for him: Victor Martinez of the Cleveland Indians. Pretty safe bet to get about 550 AB's again (he's been there the last three seasons), and he's playing first base, too. He'll reel in a solid batting average and a lot of RBI and should hit 20-25 home runs again.

Another notable catcher worth a premium price is Los Angeles Dodgers’ Russ Martin. Plays a lot and puts up solid numbers all around, and I mean all-around—21 stolen bases last year! Don't hold your breath to see if he'll do it again, but the speed is a nice addition to a well-catcher who should contribute every day.

Minnesota Twins’ Joe Mauer can hit as well as Martin or Martinez if not better, but he battled injury problems last year and is not worth the risk this year.

Kenji Johjima of the Seattle Mariners is solid, but better known than other catchers who can put up similar numbers, so you may want to pass on him in favor of another position player and snag a catcher later.

Excellent (and affordable) Catchers:

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers
**Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs (Hit .357 with 117 RBI w/ 29 HR btw Triple-A and Majors last year, STUD!)
J.R. Towles, Houston Astros (Cheap version of Russ Martin)
Josh Bard, San Diego Padres (Solid numbers in a pitchers park)