Bleacher Report - Articles by Jeff Prutsman

LSU-Florida: Pick Your Poison—Here Comes You-Know-Who, or "Win One for Tebow"

Jeff Prutsman — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:18:15 -0400

TIM TEBOW is back at practice. Will he play or won't he? And what is the impact on the Gators if he doesn't play?

First, let's clear up one concern. John Brantley is not a weakness. Not only has Brantley seen more than a little playing time already this season; he has played well, throwing three touchdown passes and no interceptions.

Is he comparable to the greatest college football player since Jim Thorpe? Well, no. Who is?

On the other hand, he is an elite passing quarterback who will likely play in the NFL. Knowledgeable SEC fans have no doubt heard one analyst or another opine that Brantley may be "the third or fourth best passing quarterback in the SEC."

He might be the best. We'll see next season.

Ryan Mallet has certainly impressed at Arkansas, but only for half of one season. (And incidentally, while it's fashionable to knock Tebow's throwing motion, he is a very accurate passer with a strong arm.)

Rivals.com ranked Brantley the No. 3 quarterback in the 2007 national recruiting class, behind Casey Clausen and Mallet. He was the Gatorade 2006 National High School Player of the Year. Given a choice, Urban Meyer prefers to recruit kids who have played on championship high school teams. Brantley fits the mold, having guided his high school team to the Florida State 2B Division Championship.

And one last Brantley nugget: Brantley and Tebow are both coached this season by the estimable Scott Loeffler, the former Michigan quarterback tutor to Chad Henne, Brian Griese, and that Tom Brady fellow. (In an odd twist, Loeffler recruited Mallet to Michigan before both were obsoleted in Ann Arbor by the arrival of Rich Rodriguez.)

In summary:

   1. Brantley has played significant time already this this year and played well.
   2. Brantley has an elite pedigree and is a winner.
   3. Brantley is superbly coached.

Now, back to Mr. Tebow. there is no way to know, at this moment, whether Tebow will play or not. He practiced in pads but without contact today, splitting snaps with Brantley. He will no doubt lobby hard to play, but the decision appears to lie with an objective measure of his performance on various cognitive tests, compared to preseason baseline scores. We won't know until we know.

There's no question that Tebow would be missed in those third and three situations. But the prospect of Tebow roaming the Gator sideline in street clothes is not to be taken lightly, either.

Surely you can imagine the ESPN video highlights of an inspirational Tebow on the sidelines. You know he'll do it, if necessary. And you know it will work. It always does.

Frankly, if you're LSU and Les Miles, you might rather see Tebow out on the field Saturday night. Why? Because the last thing you want is the Gators elevating Mr. Tebow to temporary "Gipper" status.

The Gators are the deeper, more talented, and more experienced team, and they are anxious to avenge the 2007 war in Death Valley, one of college football's most memorable games and a game many current Gators played in. No need to add fuel to the fire.

So from LSU's perspective, you might say this game is a version of "pick your poison."

Of course, LSU can win this game. The Gators have the most talented team in the SEC and probably the nation, but six or seven different SEC teams can beat just about anybody on a good day if a few breaks go their way. Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, and, maybe once again by next year, Tennessee.

Of these, Alabama is superbly coached and has more than its fair share of good athletes, but the LSU Tigers are always the scariest team the Gators face.

LSU teams just seem to always come up with a patchwork of athletes with just crazy physiques and talent—big gangly guys whose jerseys don't seem to fit quite right. While they might seem like just another SEC team in the Swamp or between the hedges, in Death Valley on a Saturday night they dial it up a notch.

LSU's problem is that they don't have 22 of these guys right now while Florida has probably three dozen or more.

Incidentally, don't get too carried away with all the pooh-poohing of Florida's wide receivers and lamenting about the loss of Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy. Percy Harvin missed five full games last season, including the SEC championship game against Alabama. The Gators won all five.

And Louis Murphy's aura has grown in his absence. He was an outstanding Gator receiver, but the idea that he was a focal point of opposing defensive planners is simply revisionist history. Louis Murphy and Riley Cooper are very similar in physical build, speed, route running and pass catching ability.

So who wins it?

Well, Florida typically plays three kinds of games:

1. The "hell unleashed first quarter" game...

...during which the opponent starts slow and commits a mental mistake or two. Or three. Self-inflicted suicide. Florida's speed and talent shell-shock the opponent. Next thing you know, the score is 28-0 at the end of the first quarter. The remaining three quarters of these games are usually an afterthought.

2. The "we'll see what they do and adjust" game...

...during which the opponent does not commit any major blunders and Florida's first quarter offense is a series of pre-scripted probes: a dive here, an option there; no attempt to blow the game open, just cautious probing to get a feel for individual match-ups and the opponent's defensive game plan. Contrary to all the talk about running up the score, this is the true Urban Meyer M.O. The offense opens up during the second and third quarters.

3. The war...

...like the 2007 LSU-Florida game. The 2008 SEC championship game. The 2009 national championship game.

The opponent is talented, well prepared and shows up to play. Four quarters of brutal hitting ensue and the opponent draws blood. Florida wins these games because once a battle of attrition starts, Florida is big, strong, faster across the board, extraordinarily well coached and extraordinarily well conditioned. And too, there's a reason Urban Meyer likes to recruit kids with championship experience.

A repeat of the 2007 LSU-Florida war seems unlikely because LSU just doesn't have the same talent depth to go toe-to-toe for four quarters this time around. And Florida does.

The hell unleashed first quarter is dependent upon the opponent's state of mind and is impossible to predict. A good guess is that with the home field advantage and LSU's last two victories against Mississippi State and Georgia—which can be fairly considered character building exercises—this sort of game is unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Door No. 2—the cautious opening followed by a methodical dismantling of LSU's defense—seems most likely. This would be a low scoring first quarter, something like 7-3 or 3-3, followed by a burst from Florida during the second quarter and a comeback by LSU in the second half, with the Gators winning comfortably.

A guess? 31-24, Florida. And the final score will look closer than the game actually is.

Pick your poison.

Utah's Argument To Be Ranked AP No. 1

Jeff Prutsman — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 02:06:11 -0500

Here we go again.

Last night's Utah victory over Alabama will surely provide hundreds of hours of media analysis and debate about BCS versus non-BCS schools. And naturally, a huge cry will rise up, demanding that the AP rank the Utes No. 1 in the 2008 season's final poll.

Sorry, can't buy it.

Utah is a very good football team, but they simply do not belong ahead of at least Florida and USC. Undefeated or not.

Why not? Because there is a significant question as to whether the the Utes could have run through one of the stronger FBS conferences undefeated.

Please don't tell me Utah should be ranked ahead of USC because the Utes beat Oregon State and Oregon State upset the Trojans. This sort of transitive logic just doesn't work in football. And no one with any sense would favor Oregon State over USC in a rematch, even if the game was played again on Oregon State's home field.

About last night's game...

The subpar Alabama running game and the unusually high number of sacks and hurry-up pressure on John Parker Wilson were direct results of the suspension of all-world offensive tackle Andre Smith and the early injury of starting offensive guard Mike Johnson.

Everything Alabama does flows from a powerful offensive line and eating up time of possession with a ball control running game. No matter how poor Alabama's defense was last night (and they were pretty poor during the first and fourth quarters) an offense can't score if they are standing on the sideline.

And no, I'm not an Alabama fan.

While Alabama was clearly not ready to play last night and Utah clearly was, you can't take away one entire side of ANY team's starting offensive line and expect a victory against a quality opponent.

At least five or six teams ranked behind Alabama probably could have beaten them last night under the same circumstances. Doesn't mean they're better teams over the long haul.

Football is all about exploiting key matchups: Utah clearly targeted its blitzes and D-line stunts on Smith's and Johnson's replacements.

So sorry, but Utah's victory last night was not against "the real" Alabama. You won't hear much about this angle on ESPN or elsewhere because it isn't as interesting a story as David beating Goliath.

But you just can't have any sense of confidence that Utah would beat Alabama with a healthy and full-strength Alabama first string offensive line.

Utah did a lot of things right to win and deserves a lot of credit. And even with a full-strength Alabama, the Crimson Tide's best wide receiver would still have been largely neutralized by an NFL-caliber Utah defensive back.

Give Utah their due, but you simply can't rank them No. 1 in the nation when almost half of their undefeated schedule came against Mountain West opponents with mediocre records (including two 4-8 records, one 2-10 record, and one 5-7 record).

Are they very good? Unequivocally yes. Are they the best in the nation if they have to face—on average—bigger, faster and stronger players every week for three months? Their strength of schedule just creates too many unknowns.

It is precisely this "wear-and-tear" factor that is the fundamental counterweight to the argument that Utah should be ranked No. 1 in the nation simply because they are the only undefeated top 10 team.

Utah deserved to win last night. But it would be a mistake to draw sweeping conclusions based upon last night's outcome.

Passing Efficiency: Tebow, McCoy, or Bradford—Who Is Really Performing Better?

Jeff Prutsman — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 07:42:27 -0500

Give Bob Stoops credit: He has the PR game down pat. Not a 60-point Oklahoma Sooner victory passed this season without Coach highlighting the "precision" of his quarterback, Sam Bradford.

We've unfortunately reached a point that has everyone parroting the latest buzz phrase as soon as it is launched, from ESPN on down the sports media food chain to you and me. Short, snappy word pictures that are easy to digest and remember.

"Big and tough Alabama versus flashy Florida" makes for a better storyline than "big and tough Alabama versus also big and tough and faster Florida."

Coach Stoops knows that anyone who gets out in front on national TV can frame the discussion. The more he mentions Bradford's allegedly stellar accuracy, the more likely Heisman voters will think, "Boy, that Bradford sure is accurate."

I was curious.

Presumably, passing "precision" and passing "accuracy" are reflected in completion percentage. It turns out, according to NCAA Division I passing statistics, that the Oklahoma Sooners are not first, not second...not even third in Big 12 passing completion percentage.

Amazingly, the Sooners (68.1 percent) rank fifth in the Big 12 in passing completion percentage behind, respectively, Texas (77.6 percent), Missouri (72.4 percent), Texas Tech (71 percent), and Nebraska (69.5 percent).

Clearly, Colt McCoy is a more accurate passer than Sam Bradford.

But Nebraska? Are the Sooners—and by extension, Mr. Bradford—really ranked behind Nebraska in completion percentage?

Yup.

Incidentally, for those of you who argue that the Sooners on average toss the ball farther down the field, they do—an average of about two yards farther per attempt.

Of course, the Sooners do lead the conference and the nation in touchdown passes and touchdown passes as a percentage of passes attempted, and points do matter more than anything else.

But this raises a question.

If Oklahoma and the amazing Mr. Bradford rank fifth in Big 12 passing completion percentage, just how tough is it to throw in the Big 12? Are the quarterbacks that good, or are the defenses that bad?

This is not about whether the Big 12 quarterbacks are good. We're talking about Heisman numbers here, or the lack thereof. The question is: Are they great?

The D-I average completion percentage for this season was 58.4 percent. The Big 12 average was 65.4 percent. In a 12-team conference, only one team (Colorado) did not exceed the D-I average. Eight Big 12 teams exceeded 60 percent. These numbers are all just a bit odd when you look at every other conference in the country.

The consensus top NFL draft pick at quarterback, Matthew Stafford, plays for the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia's completion percentage was 61.3 percent. Seven Big 12 teams had higher completion percentages.

And the mighty Florida Gators? The Gators turned in a 64.6 percent completion percentage, which is pretty good by any standard.

What makes the Gators' (and by extension, Tim Tebow's) performance so remarkable is that the SEC's average completion percentage was only 55.4 percent—three points below the D-I average.

Now, I know what you're thinking. The SEC just had lousy offenses this year, right?

Well, maybe not.

SEC defenses on average intercepted the ball 3.8 percent of the time. That compares with 3.3 percent nationally and a meager 2.4 percent in the Big 12. Other things being equal, interception percentage should remain more or less constant, regardless of the number of pass attempts.

In other words, Big 12 defenses underperformed the national average in interceptions, and the SEC overperformed.

While any number of critics have instinctively questioned the quality of Big 12 defenses, these hard numbers put to bed the idea that the Big 12 just happens, by some stroke of cosmic good fortune, to be blessed with several very good quarterbacks all playing in the same conference at the same time.

So as we find our way back to the subject of Heisman nominees, Tebow's completion percentage starts to look more impressive. Bradford's completion percentage is just 2.7 percent better than his conference average.

McCoy's is over 12 percent better. Tebow's is over nine percent better than the SEC average.

Tebow also has a lower interception percentage than McCoy or Bradford, playing against arguably tougher defenses.

As the late great U.S. senator from New York, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, used to say, "You're entitled to your own opinions. But you're not entitled to your own facts."