Bleacher Report - Articles by Nate Myers

2009 Atlanta Braves Preview: Chipper Jones and Casey Kotchman to Man the Corners

Nate Myers — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 10:37:58 -0500

In our fourth installment of the Atlanta Braves 2009 Preview, we will be looking at the corner infield positions.

Click Here to see the starting rotation preview for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

Click Here to see the catcher position preview for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

Click here to see the bullpen preview for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

First Base

Casey Kotchman will man the "3" spot for the Atlanta Braves in 2009. Kotchman is a patient hitter at the plate, and should provide a little bit of pop from time to time.

In his first full big league season in '07, he hit .296 with a .372 on base percentage; not bad for a guy considered a No. 6 or No. 7 hitter in a lineup.

Last season, when he came to Atlanta, Kotchman had his struggles. There were already those considering him a bust.

Kotchman hit .180 in the month of August until he left to be with his ailing mother. Can you really blame him if his mind wasn't totally focused on baseball?

Yes, I may be a little biased, but the stats don't lie. When his mother started feeling better, he returned to the Braves. Kotchman hit .305 in the month of September with a .394 OBP and a .402 slugging percentage.

So, don't give up on Kotchman so easily, Braves fans. Kotchman is a Mark Grace-type hitter. He'll get you a solid average with a few home runs and can come through when he gets the opportunity with RISP.

I expect him to hit in the sixth spot in the order in front of Kelly Johnson. Kotchman should hit around .280-.290 in 2009 with between 12-17 home runs and 60 or so RBI.

Third Base

Chipper Jones will, of course, be the third baseman for the Atlanta Braves in 2009. With Chipper, it all comes down to being healthy. Make no mistake about it, this lineup is built around Chipper Jones. If he can't play 140 or more games in 2009, the Braves could, even with the improved pitching, struggle again.

If Chipper can stay healthy, there's no reason you can't expect more of the same from him. His OBP has been over .400 for nine of the last 10 years. In the last three years, he has hit .341 with 77 homers and 263 RBI: not bad for an old guy prone to injury. Just imagine what the Braves will get if he can stay healthy.

Chipper is now the longest tenured player on the Atlanta Braves roster. Thus, he will be taking more of a leadership role in 2009 and has already stated that he will not stand for any of the laziness that has been present in the Braves locker room the past few years.

I expect Chipper to play in 130 to 145 games in 2009. He should have a batting average of around .310-.325 and get around 20 home runs.

If the top of the lineup can get on base in front of Chipper, there's no reason 2009 can't be his tenth 100 RBI season.

Bench

There will be plenty of options to back up both Chipper and Kotchman. Omar Infante would be a viable option at third base. He played 32 games there last season and did a decent job while committing only four errors.

Martin Prado and Greg Norton could all get some time at both during some point of 2009. Both have played third base and first base at some point in their careers.

If Jones or Kotchman were to get a day off, I would expect Prado to get the nod. He is the best defender out of the three, and Norton (being a switch hitter) and Infante (with his experience) would be better suited to situational at-bats late in games.

Overall

With Jones, Kotchman and the available options on the bench, the Braves should be in good hands, offensively and defensively, in 2009.

Neither guy will provide extreme power for the Braves in 2009, but all options will be consistent, and should be considered by opponents as threats with RISP.

2009 Braves Preview: Mike Gonzalez to Anchor Atlanta Bullpen

Nate Myers — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 14:09:19 -0500

As we move to look at the bullpen in the next installment of the 2009 Atlanta Braves Preview, let's keep in mind that while they have many of the same players from last year, the new starting rotation should prove to be the biggest help.

Click Here to see the starting rotation preview for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

Click Here to see the catcher position preview for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

Click Here for the corner infield positions preview for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

Closer

Mike Gonzalez will come into the season as the closer for the Atlanta Braves. And why not? The guy only has five blown saves in his entire six-year career. Last season, he was clearly not himself coming back from Tommy John surgery. His velocity wasn't the 96-98 mph we were used to seeing in his days with the Pirates. But don't worry, this isn't rare; most pitchers have problems coming back after being off and rehabbing for an entire year.

He was quoted on MLB.com saying, "I feel Atlanta hasn't really had a chance to see me at 100 percent. [My elbow] bothered me in Pittsburgh toward the end, and coming [to Atlanta], I didn't really get much of an opportunity to throw without the pain. I tried to throw through it, tried to tough through it and, obviously, it didn't work out too well."

This year, look for Gonzalez to be back to form. There's no reason this guy can't become one of the premier closers in the league, as he was well on his way to becoming one when he got hurt. I see him having an ERA around 2.30-2.70 (right with his career average) with 25-35 saves (of course, depending on how many chances he gets).

Setup Men

The eighth inning guy for the Atlanta Braves this year should be Rafael Soriano. Injured for most of last season, he is looking to come back strong and get things rolling as he did in '07, when he had a career high in innings (72.0). If his right elbow injury has healed up like we all expect, he should come in as a great setup guy going to Gonzalez.

The seventh inning and some of the eighth inning work will be going to Peter Moylan for most of the year. Keep in mind that the sidearm Australian isn't expected back until May, so it may be July before we can count on him consistently.

If the Braves can re-sign Will Ohman, they will have a proven lefty to bring in for the late innings for situational help against left-handers, and not have to worry about keeping him in against right-handed hitters.

Jeff Ridgeway may be another lefty worth looking at if we can't get Ohman. He pitched in a few games last season and had just a 2.08 ERA against lefties. But he also had a 5.06 ERA against right-handers. He may be an option to bring in when a lefty is announced, but I don't think he can be trusted staying in a game against right-handers.

If neither Ohman nor Ridgway, look for the late inning situational guy to be Manny Acosta. With his excellent change-up, he should be able to keep left-handed hitters in check more often than not. Being a righty, he will also have no problem staying in the game after a key out.

Middle/Long Relief

With only two or three more spots to fill (depending on if Bobby Cox wants to carry 12 or 13 pitchers), we will look at middle and long relief. The favorites for these positions seem to be Blaine Boyer, Buddy Carlyle, Jeff Bennett, and Jorge Campillo.

Blaine Boyer should look to be the middle guy to bring in for the fifth-sixth innings if needed. He looked really good most of the year last year, but throwing in 76 games caught up with him in August and September and ballooned his numbers.

Jorge Campillo should be the Braves' long-relief guy for the 2009 season. He has shown that he can be consistent and has great control, which is exactly what the Braves will need if they have to call on him in this role. If he can get a handle on that hanging curveball, he should pitch very well in 2009.

Buddy Carlyle and Jeff Bennett should get to battle it out for the final spot in the bullpen. Both showed some things last year and would be valuable. Jeff Bennett made spot starts and pitched in relief whenever he was asked, and who can forget those three innings Carlyle threw in extras against the Astros on July 6 in that 17-inning affair last season? Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that both will be on the Major League roster together.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen should be at or near the top of the league in most categories next year (hopefully, except for appearances). Gonzalez and Soriano should make sure of that with what they have already proven in their careers; and if Moylan is healthy and the Braves are able to sign Will Ohman, the Braves should have plenty of options when certain situations arise.

Lowe, Jurrjens Head Atlanta Braves 2009 Rotation

Nate Myers — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 14:32:29 -0500

With pitchers and catchers set to report in just two weeks, it's time to take a look at the starting rotation in the second installment of the Atlanta Braves 2009 season preview.

Click here for a look at the catcher position for the Braves of 2009!

Click here for a look at the bullpen for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

Click here for a look at the corner infield positions for the Braves in 2009!

No. 1 Starter: Derek Lowe

Lowe will come in as the Braves new ace in the 2009 rotation. A lot has been said about the Braves overpaying for him. This may be true; however, Lowe brings stability and innings pitched to a rotation that had virtually none a year ago.

Lowe averages 208 innings pitched since becoming a starter in 2002; while giving up only about one home run every two starts.

Experts seem to compare Lowe to Arizona ace Brandon Webb an awful lot, calling him a lesser version of the sinker baller. Last season, Lowe had a 1.13 WHIP, a 3.24 ERA, and a career low in walks with 45; besting Webb in each of those categories with 1.20 WHIP, a 3.30 ERA and 65 walks.
Lowe may not have the potent sinker that Webb has, but he knows how to work with what he has. Lowe should throw over 200 innings with the Braves in 2009 and have 15 to 17 wins.

No. 2 Starter: Jair Jurrjens

Jurrjens was the Braves most consistent starter in 2008. He completed 188 1/3 innings, and didn’t go at least five innings only three times (two of those pitched into the fifth inning).

Jurrjens was making a case for himself for rookie of the year for most of the season. Going into August Jurrjens had a 3.06 ERA and won NL pitcher of the month in June, going 3-0 with a 1.63 ERA. However, as almost every player goes through in his rookie year, the toll of the major league season started catching up to him.

In the final two months of the season Jurrjens had an ERA over 5.00 and pitched into the seventh inning just twice in 10 starts. His velocity stayed where it has been all season, but he started dragging his arm a bit which left his pitches high and decreased the movement.

Now that Jurrjens has gone through a full major league season I foresee him having a stellar year as the Braves No. 2 starter. Look for him to use that excellent change-up a lot more this year, which will improve his prowess. He should pitch over 200 innings and his ERA should be between 3.20 and 3.50.

No. 3 Starter: Javier Vazquez

Bobby Cox has loved Javier Vazquez since he was with the Montreal Expos (now the Washington Nationals). Vazquez has pitched over 200 innings eight of the 11 years he’s been in the majors and has made less than 30 starts only once, with 26.

Vazquez’s ERA was exceptionally high last season, but keep in mind he was in the American League. Also, that’s the beauty of being a No. 3 starter. He’s not expected to wow people with his stuff or throw a shutout every 3-5 starts. Vazquez will simply be asked to be consistent, keep the Braves in the game, and get his innings and strikeouts.

Vazquez should have an ERA between 3.40 and 4.00. I expect to see him get his 200 innings and 200 strikeouts for yet another season.

No. 4 Starter: Kenshin Kawakami

Kawakami has an average fastball in the low 90s, exceptional cutter, and a slow curve. He compiled a 112-72 record and 3.22 ERA with 1,328 strikeouts in 11 seasons for the Chunichi Dragons.

In 2004, he was 17-7 with a 3.32 ERA and won the MVP in Japan’s Central League and the Japanese version of the Cy Young award.

Most would argue that he had his best year in 2006 when he was 17-7 with a 2.51 ERA, 194 strikeouts and 215 innings. Last year he was 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 117 1/3 innings. The lack of innings shouldn’t alarm you as he pitched in a six-man rotation and missed a month for the Olympics; he also missed a couple of weeks with a back strain.

The best thing the Braves can do with Kawakami right away is let him pitch. It will take him a little time to get used to the American baseball (higher seams, and larger circumference), but if he is allowed to find his groove early enough and is able to follow the scouting reports, there’s no reason Kawakami can’t have an ERA around 3.50 with 160-180 strikeouts and 10-14 wins.

No. 5 Starter: Unknown

The No. 5 spot could go to a number of guys. Tom Glavine, who has been given a clean bill of health from Dr. James Andrews, may be signed to pitch the year for the Braves. However, with the signings of Lowe and Kawakami, the Braves don’t have much left in the budget and, with the need of an outfielder still out there, could force Glavine to head to the Washington Nationals (they have shown interest and it would be close to his family).

If the Braves don’t sign Glavine they will still have the options of Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, and Tommy Hanson. James Parr and Anthony Lerew would be wild cards to make the rotation; meaning even if they impress, Cox may still feel that they need work at AAA.

With Campillo being so stellar out of the bullpen last season I suspect he will start the year back there in 2009. Tommy Hanson would be the fan favorite to man the fifth spot, but I’m pretty sure management will decide to at least give him the first month or two in AAA to get his change-up where he needs it before jumping in the majors.

This leaves Charlie Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes. If they’ve improved this off-season like I hope they have, they should be ready to compete for the fifth spot.

With Morton, it’s going to come down to getting his pitches down. When he leaves his fastball up he gets into trouble and starts going to his good curve too much and, as a result, starts leaving it up.

Reyes, just needs to pitch with the same confidence that he pitches with at the minor league level; trusting his fastball and using his off-speed pitches more often when he’s ahead of the count.

If Morton and Reyes are neck and neck towards the end of spring training, expect the job to go to Reyes for no other reason than he’s a lefty they can put into a rotation with four right-handers.

As a whole

Look for the starting rotation for the Braves to be much improved. The top four starters have proven they are able to keep teams into ball games and that trend will not change in 2009.

The fifth spot, if Glavine doesn’t sign, may have unproven youngsters in there. But if Morton and/or Reyes can’t hold the fort, your frustration will be short lived because by the time they show they can’t deliver, it will be time for Hanson to be brought up.

Finally, the rotation for 2009 will be able to go deep in games on a consistent basis. This will stabilize games and make it easier to win those one-run games and will tremendously help a Braves bullpen that was at the top of the league in appearances last season.

2009 Atlanta Braves Preview: Catchers

Nate Myers — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 11:05:04 -0500

Over the next few weeks, we will be looking at the Atlanta Braves roster and outlook for the 2009 season, position by position. With pitchers and catchers set to report soon, we will start with them. This week we will look at the catcher position for the Atlanta Braves.

Click here for a preview of the starting rotation for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

Click here for a preview of the bullpen for the Atlanta Braves in 2009!

Click here for a preview of the corner infield position for the Braves in 2009!

Starter:

Brian McCann will again come into the season as the Atlanta Braves starting catcher. McCann, after an injury in '07 that he just couldn't seem to get rid of completely, was back last year and as good as ever. He seemed out of shape at the beginning of the year but proved healthy with the bat consistently throughout.

McCann batted .301 with 23 home runs and 87 RBI. Considering the shots McCann was taking from critics during and directly after the season you would think he had an off year.

I beg to differ, as McCann set career highs in games played (145), runs scored (68), hits (153), extra base hits (66, including 1 triple), walks (57), stolen bases (5), and total bases (266).

How can improvement and progress be looked at as anything other than what it is? However, we hear fantasy analysts saying on ESPN.com that drafting McCann in the first round would be foolish for the 2009 season.

I disagree on the basis that he's one of the best offensive catchers in the game. McCann will simply need to pick up where he left off at the plate. Behind the plate is another matter.

McCann has had well documented troubles throwing out runners throughout his career. Last year he came into camp feeling good about his mechanics throwing out of the crouch.

However, his new found release, while quicker, took too much velocity off of the throw. He started to go back to his old mechanics toward the end of the year and seemed to show improvement.

He had plenty of practice as teams, realizing his troubles, attempted to steal 120 times last season.

McCann has reportedly lost 20 pounds since the end of last season, which should improve his footwork and, in turn, his release to second base. If McCann could get his caught stealing percentage above the 20's (22 percent for his career) there's no reason people shouldn't consider him one of the best all-around catchers in the game.

Bench:

The backup catcher to McCann this season will, in all likelihood, be David Ross. Signed this past off season, Ross will bring some excellent defensive skills along with some pop at the plate. Ross is relatively unknown around here, but his stats speak for themselves.

During the 2006-2007 seasons, Ross had 38 homers in 558 at-bats. That's pretty impressive considering he only gets about 5-10 at-bats per week.

The stat that will help the Braves in the 2009 season the most is perhaps his caught stealing percentage. Ross threw out 47 percent of base runners last season and, while keeping this percentage with the Braves, can maybe give McCann a few pointers.

If the backup catcher spot winds up not going to Ross, the position will likely go the former Georgia Bulldog, Clint Sammons.

This is unlikely as Sammons doesn't have the experience, arm, or bat Ross has. The only thing Sammons has on Ross is perhaps calling a better game and receiving with a quiet glove (Eddie Perez-esque).

2009 Overall Outlook:

The catcher position for the Braves in 2009 seems to be intact with Brian McCann at the helm. If he can keep his numbers, and three straight All-Star appearances suggests he certainly can, and Ross can capitalize on some of the promise that he's shown in recent years, the Braves will be all set and ready for a very productive year out of the catcher position.

Atlanta Braves Make Offer to Derek Lowe

Nate Myers — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 10:02:49 -0500

The Atlanta Braves have made a 4 year/$60 million offer to free agent starting pitcher Derek Lowe, according to SI.com. Lowe is the type A starting pitching free agent that can save the offseason for the Braves who, after losing John Smoltz, have taken a lot of criticism from fans (and that's putting it lightly).

Lowe has averaged over 208 innings pitched per season over the last seven years. The Atlanta Braves are in good shape with the depth of their rotation this upcoming season with Jurrjens, Kawakami (pending a physical), and Vazquez. If the attempts at getting Derek Lowe come to fruition, the starting rotation is looking good with the fifth spot being taken by Glavine, Hanson, Campillo, Morton, or Reyes.

The Braves have pushed incredibly hard at Lowe since the departure of long-time ace and fan favorite John Smoltz. After having a meeting at Turner Field with Boras and Lowe for close to five hours, everyone seemed to come out of the meeting feeling good about the opportunities that could present themselves.

The Mets may decide to up their previous offer of 3 years/$36 million, but with the Mets currently making an offer to Oliver Perez, this seems very unlikely.

Lowe was 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA last season with the L.A. Dodgers.

Javier Vazquez to the Atlanta Braves: One Down...Two More To Go!

Nate Myers — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:15:25 -0500

The first piece of Frank Wren's offseason agenda is in place. Via trade with the Chicago White Sox, the Atlanta Braves have picked up right-hander Javier Vazquez to fill a need in their starting rotation.

In the deal, the Braves received the aforementioned Javier Vazquez and 24-year-old inconsistent lefty Boone Logan. The White Sox received four players, including Brent Lillibridge and Tyler Flowers, the up-and-coming catcher who showed outstanding power, hitting 12 homers in the AFL this fall.

The other two players that were included in the deal were third baseman Jon Gilmore and LHP Santos Rodriguez.

Javier Vazquez will bring much needed stability to the Atlanta Braves. Even though Vazquez has a habit of having high ERA's in past seasons, be aware that he has been in the American League the past few seasons and averages 216 innings per year since the 2000 season. Vazquez also had 200 strikeouts last year.

Bottom line, I think Frank Wren is trying to do what he promised at the beginning of the offseason. The Braves are now one-third of the way there. Since Wren didn't get Jermaine Dye involved in this trade, that only leads me to believe that something else is in the works for a power-hitting outfielder.

Don't be surprised if something happens soon that lands the Braves an outfielder.

Once Wren lands that outfielder, he will continue to try and get an ace. This would come to fruition if he is able to sign A.J. Burnett to a deal that would bring him to Atlanta. If not, he may have to look elsewhere via trade, and maybe even reopen negotiations with the Padres for Jake Peavy.

Atlanta Falcons Going in the Right Direction!

Nate Myers — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 03:50:34 -0500

Say what you want about the Atlanta Falcons, but for the first time since I've been alive, they finally seem like they have something to build on. I was one of the first people to say that the Falcons shouldn't draft Matt Ryan.

I felt that Ryan could become a good quarterback in the league, but I wanted, like a lot of other fans, either an offensive/defensive lineman or McFadden. When we first made the trade to draft Sam Baker at the LT position, I immediately felt better about what the Falcons were doing.

Defense

We now have good, young corners who know how to stick and are only going to get better. Foxworth, since coming over from the Broncos, has played outstanding football. He almost single-handedly shut down the New Orleans Saints' passing attack on Nov. 9.

We haven't even seen much of Chevis Jackson (rookie and just 22 years old) playing the nickleback position, but that interception return for a touchdown against the Saints tells us that he will eventually be a force to be reckoned with.

The defensive line, along with the linebacking corp., seems to really have something that can work for years to come. Abraham is back to his old self and has been at or near the top of the league in sacks all year.

Jamaal Anderson (just 22 years old) is starting to find his grove. I really feel that if since he has gotten his first sack, he is really beginning to take off, and blocked that field goal against the Chargers on Nov. 30 as well.

Big Grady Jackson is always going to be a force, and Jonathan Babineaux, because of more and more playing time is really starting to take advantage; to the point where he has gotten a contract extension. The rookie Curtis Lofton (just 22 years old) is going to be a force at the MLB position and the OLB's of Brooking (all-time Falcon favorite) and Boley (just 25 years old) are playing great.

Offense

The Offensive line still needs some work, but we have a great foundation to work from with Sam Baker (just 23 years old). Even though he is hurt right now, Baker, within the next two or three years, is going to be a perennial Pro Bowler. He is already the anchor for our offensive line and he isn't even close to what his potential is yet.

Matt Ryan first impressed me when I saw him play in his first preseason game. He came out in his first series and clearly was too nervous to perform. Then he came out for his second series and it was like one of the coaches said something that made the light turn on in his head.

He came out, drove the Falcons down the field, and before each play I saw him scanning the defenses from behind center and figuring out his reads. He wasn't just hiking the ball and looking for his open receivers and taking a lot of time checking down (that's why Joey Harrington doesn't have a job with the Falcons anymore).

He tried to read the defense and gave himself a couple of choices and made the plays for his first touchdown drive. Matt Ryan doesn't have a lot of pressure on him and can go out there this season and learn.

The quarterbacks in the past who have just been able to play and learn in their first year (Troy Aikman, Peyton Manning) well, you know where I'm going with that.

Michael Turner continues to be at the top of the league in rushing. With 120 yards rushing against the Chargers, he now has 1208 yards rushing for the season.

The receivers are looking really good. Roddy White is playing like he is serious about that Pro-Bowl prediction he made before the season. White is currently second in the league in receiving yards and just keeps getting open. When safeties start coming over to help out, then Jenkins, Douglas, and Finneran have the savvy to be ready for their chances.

Bottom line, the Falcons are looking pretty good. Are we going to the Super Bowl this year? Probably not. Are they going to the playoffs? Hopefully.

And with players at or near the top of the league in sacks, rushing, and Roddy White being second in receiving, plus the poise and smarts of a young Matt Ryan, I’d say we are on our way to having some consecutive playoff appearances for the first time in Falcons history.

What if the Atlanta Braves Don't Get A.J. Burnett?

Nate Myers — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 02:17:18 -0500

Yes, the Braves are still in the bidding for FA pitcher A.J. Burnett. Burnett has always had some really electric stuff. And now, he appears to be healthy, and as Chipper Jones stated, "Now he gets it. He's a pitcher and when he's healthy, he's as good as there is."

Maybe Burnett can become the pitcher we all thought he was going to be when he came up with the Marlins. But what if the Braves don't get Burnett? There have been little-to-no talks with Derek Lowe, and the Peavy talks have dwindled to nothing.

Frank Wren has stated that he wants two veteran "top notch" pitchers and a power hitting left fielder with the $40 million that is allocated to him this offseason. However, our options are closing fast and it seems that in order to fill these needs, we will have to do the majority of it via trade. There are an awful lot of possibilities.

We may need to sign Jon Garland off of Free Agency. I know there will be some people that won't like this idea, but Garland is an innings eater, and coming to the N.L. would help his ERA.

After this, the Braves could go to the White Sox for a trade that has been discussed with the Braves getting Jermaine Dye and Javier Vazquez. I don't think the Braves would be giving up as much in this deal, as they would if they go back and try to land Peavy; and they will be getting two of the three needs taken care of.

Even though Vazquez has somewhat of a habit of having a high ERA, just remember that he has been in the American League for the past few years, and since the 2000 season, he is averaging over 216 innings per year. Isn't this exactly what the Braves need?

Don't they need solid pitching and pitchers that are going to be consistent and go deep into ballgames? This pitching rotation would be above average with Garland, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Campillo, and Tommy Hanson when they bring him up (officials have said that it will be sometime in 2009).

If the Braves aren't able to land Burnett and decide not to go back and try for Peavy, there are still viable options out there. Are they as good as having gotten Peavy, Burnett, and Derek Lowe this offseason? No, but they are options that can improve the team and put the Braves back into playoff contention.