Bleacher Report - Articles by Jared Wright

NCAA Pac-10 Race Clearing Up...a Bit: Random Ravings

Jared Wright — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:06:24 -0500

The thing about great conference races is that they're never decided until the very last game.

Despite the dominance of the USC Trojans during this decade, the Pacific-10 Conference has seen some great finishes recently, the most memorable (to me, anyway...being a resident of Oregon is cool sometimes) being the Oregon Ducks' Civil War dismantling of the Oregon State Beavers last year...which handed USC another Pac-10 title.

This year, however, the Trojans are on the outside looking in.

The conference standings have Oregon sitting at 6-1, the only one-loss team in the Pac-10. They have two tough games at Arizona and against Oregon State remaining; These last two contests will tell people whether the Ducks actually have the stones to finish a season strong.

One thing's for sure: If they botch this golden opportunity, Chip Kelly won't hear the end of it for some time.

The Stanford Cardinal , fresh off their savage beatdown of USC, stand at 6-2, with the tiebreaker over the Ducks. Despite their great success recently, however, they have already lost to the other two teams with two losses in conference play.

They only have the Cal game remaining in conference play, so they'll need a little help to even make the Holiday Bowl, let alone smell the Roses. Overall, however, I have to like their position.

Arizona sits at 4-2. The Wildcats have the tiebreaker over both Oregon State and Stanford, and control their own destiny. With the loss to the California Golden Bears, however, their road becomes much bumpier; even if they do beat the Ducks Saturday, they'll still have to contend with Arizona State and USC.

For them, it's win out and go to the Rose Bowl. If they lose again...well, it could get messy in Tuscon.

Oregon State , at 5-2, perhaps has the easiest road ahead. Sure, they have the Ducks in Autzen at the end of the season, but first the Beavers have to go up to Pullman for the auto-win against the Washington State Cougars.

They'll be rooting for Oregon this week: With an Arizona loss, and OSU's tiebreaker over Stanford, the Civil War could become a Rose Bowl play-in game...poetic justice, since the two Oregon schools have been USC's main challengers the last several years.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen...Southern Cal , at 4-3, has seen their season become a mockery of what they expect from their who's-who of high school studs. While they do own wins over Oregon State and Cal, they have virtually zero chance of going back to the Rose Bowl this year, due to their losses at Oregon and to Stanford.

The best the Trojans can hope for is a trip to the Sun Bowl, but even that will be a chore.

They'll have to beat Arizona and UCLA, and Stanford will have to beat Cal and make it to the Holiday Bowl (Oregon State went to El Paso last year, and the Sun Bowl has a no-return clause). All scenarios are very possible, but one has to wonder if the Trojans really give a damn at this point.

California, also at 4-3, is in a pretty weak position at this point: Oregon, OSU, and USC have already beaten them. They have a game against the suddenly unstoppable Cardinal upcoming, and their big win over Arizona might be rendered moot.

To top it all off, Jahvid Best is still feeling shaky after his terrifying mid-air spin-out against the Beavers.

Making the Emerald Bowl—which I believe is played in San Francisco, close to where Cal's campus is—might be a nice consolation prize for them, but getting to play that game will require hard work and plenty of help.

As for the other teams in the Pac-10...the UCLA Bruins and Arizona State Sun Devils both face an uphill battle to become the seventh Pac-10 team to be eligible for a bowl, but UCLA may be more likely to achieve that.

The Bruins still lack much of an offense (beating Washington State doesn't count), but their defense has been solid. Even if they don't make a bowl, they should still be able to get some in-game experience for Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut, while ironing out their myriad personnel (player and coach) issues.

The Sun Devils are similar to UCLA in that they, too, have little offense to speak of, but they may have stumbled upon a ray of hope: third-string quarterback Samson Szakacsy (pronounced, I believe, Sis-ack-ski).

This young man came into tonight's Oregon game after Brock Osweiler was injured, and drove ASU down the field for a touchdown in the third quarter. Szakacsy did some good things with the ball, and put the Devils to within 10 before Oregon put the game away.

If he doesn't get the start next week, I'd have to seriously question Dennis Erickson's coaching skills and general sanity: Szakacsy is the only Sun Devils QB that has shown he can get points from drives that don't start in an opponent's side of the field.

While the Washington Huskies have had some great moments this year, I know Steve Sarkasian is disappointed that his squad didn't become bowl-eligible in 2009. After the stunner they pulled on Southern Cal, the Huskies have either been competitive in conference play (the Arizona schools) or been blown out of the water (the Oregon schools).

Whether or not Jake Locker bolts for the NFL, Sark will look to improve on this year as he tries to attract better recruits to his program.

As for Wazzu ...what can you really say? The Cougars have been outmatched, out-manned, and defeated by everyone they've lined up against.

This team needed some experience this year in order to start their development. If they can keep plugging away, work hard and protect Jeff Tuel, Wazzu could win a conference game next year!

Well...we can all dream, can't we?

Random Ravings: Would Everyone Please Stop Worrying About Brandon Roy!?

Jared Wright — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:30:10 -0500

See what Trail Blazers guard Brandon Roy's doing there?

Basically, he's being what he has been for Portland ever since he got there: the be-all, end-all type of player that teams need if they harbor serious NBA title aspirations.

He puts his body on the line, night in and night out. He takes a beating every time he plays. He's the guy who has single-handedly won at least a dozen games over the last two years.

So, how did the Blazers' brass repay him?

They got him some help. Namely, Andre Miller.

Normally, this is a good thing, for Miller is one of the pre-eminent ballhandlers and distributors in the league. His basketball acumen and veteran savvy were supposed to push this young team over the edge.

Recent indicators show that Miller's making an impact. While he doesn't score as much (and doesn't really need to), his assist totals have risen sharply, especially since he was introduced into the starting lineup about a week ago.

His sharp passing has benefited Greg Oden and Steve Blake, the man everyone thought Miller was out to replace. It turns out that the two work reasonably well together, with Miller pushing the ball in transition and Blake parking his skinny hinder behind the three-point line, stretching the defense in the process.

All would seem to be well in Rip City. Except for one, small, teensy detail...

...Brandon Roy might, might be unhappy.

Apparently, the media types in Portland, being media, have said that the free-flowing style Miller prefers to play in cramps Roy's ability to be, well, Roy. This supposed problem was magnified after a game—a win, I might add—against the San Antonio Spurs, where Roy finished with a mere two points.

"Two points? TWO !? No way! This lineup doesn't work!" said the masses.

"B-Roy scored only two!?" "B.'s not happy, he can't adjust." "Roy can't run with the rest of the team, or he doesn't want to." "Brandon's complaining to Coach Nate (McMillian) about Miller again ."

These and other comments have reached my ears ever since the three-guard lineup was introduced. The fear was that Roy, who likes the half-court sets where he dribbles past screens and either drives or shoots, wouldn't be able to adjust to not having the ball in his hands all the time .

To those that think that Brandon Roy won't be able to be, well, Brandon Roy, I politely say: SHUT UP!!!

Haven't you noticed that Roy's a transcendent talent? That he's both a skilled enough and intelligent enough player to be able to adjust to not having the rock?

Last night's game at Memphis was a case in point. Roy had a very well-rounded game: 20 points and seven assists, leading the team in both categories.

While we will still see hiccups during the early part of the season, the kind of game Roy had at Memphis will be the kind of game he'll have with Miller in the starting lineup: slightly fewer points, slightly more rebounds (playing small forward) and several more assists.

With the emergence of Oden and the growing offensive prowess of the bench, Roy will have to surrender his stats for the goal that he and every other elite player wants: the Larry O'Brien Trophy. And believe me, he has no problem with doing that.

He's said repeatedly that, starting with himself, the Blazers will have to sacrifice individual achievements and glory for the sake of the team. One thing that Roy does not do is lie about what his team needs to do to be successful.

But for those fans out there that fret about Roy's dropping statistics, and worry that he may think Portland's not an attractive place to be because of said stats, I offer you an example: Kobe Bryant.

Remember the years that Bryant did nothing but score, score, score? He may have gotten the scoring titles and individual accolades his idol, Michael Jordan, did, but Bryant couldn't take the Lakers very far on his own.

It got so bad that Bryant actually said he wanted to be traded away.

Then, the Lakers brass got him some help by acquiring Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum developed into a legit post threat.

At first, Kobe couldn't adjust to not being "The Man." He had gotten so used to having the rock all the time that it physically hurt him to watch his teammates shoot...until they started winning games, that is.

Bryant adjusted. He learned how to move without the ball, using teammates to free himself from his defender, then either spotting up for an open jump shot or cutting to the hoop for a layup.

Roy can learn how to do the same things without the ball that he does with the ball, and Andre Miller's a good enough passer to be able to find Roy when he's open or free from his man. He's unselfish enough to work himself into an offensive scheme where he isn't always "The Man."

Two things that work in Roy's favor are the fact that he's still a relatively young player that's open to instruction (he has a great relationship with McMillian), and the fact that Kobe Bryant never worked with a passer as good as Miller.

It's ironic that Brandon Roy is the one who's constantly preaching the "there's no I in team" concept, when he's the one who stands to lose the most in terms of individual accolades. Ironic, and indicative of the kind of player, leader, and man he really is.

There's still a chance Roy could amass a resume good enough to make the All-Star Game for the third year running. There's even a chance that he could gain MVP buzz if he gets the new system quickly enough.

There's also the concrete certainty that he could care less.

Random Ravings: The State of the Pac-10 Address

Jared Wright — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 06:33:45 -0500

See that single digit Oregon Ducks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is holding up? That represents where the Ducks find themselves in the Pacific-10 Conference standings: number one.

After a tit-for-tat first half, Oregon exploded for 23 points in the third and fourth frames to put away the Southern California Trojans, 47-20.

The significance of this victory is being felt around the college football world, but we'll address that when the next Bowl Championship Standings are released.

For now, let's discuss the ramifications in the Pac-10, namely: who's left to challenge Oregon?

USC : The wounded Trojans have just suffered their worst loss in 12 years, to a program that seems poised to challenge their monopoly on the best recruits (an unofficial report: after the game, it's been rumored that two of the top 10 defensive linemen in the country committed to Oregon).

Also, to make matters even worse, they might be shut out of the BCS for the first time in a long while.

So, if you're Pete Carroll, where do you go from here? You have players who've never really suffered the agony of defeat in their young lives.

You have a freshman quarterback who's going to be a stud, but clearly isn't there yet. You have a defense that has been getting smoked like Mary Jane in the Bay Area.

Carroll must rebuild his team's shattered confidence, and get them focused on their remaining games, quickly. As embarrassing as the Holiday Bowl sounds to USC, they'd rather take that than another loss, and a trip to El Paso or (gasp!) Las Vegas.

Oregon State: The Beavers find themselves in a familiar position: looking up at the Ducks. To be truthful, their roles were reversed last year--OSU was the team seemingly destined for a Rose Bowl berth, while Oregon was simply trying to scratch together a decent season after getting trampled by Cal and USC.

Oregon State's BCS hopes last year seemed within definite reach as they entered the Civil War game. The home team had won the last several showdowns, and the game was being played at Reser in 2008. The Beavers should have had a Rose Bowl berth in the bag.

Instead, the Ducks blew the doors off OSU in a Civil War-record victory, simultaneously embarrassing their hated rivals and denying them their first Rose Bowl appearance since before my 54-year-old father was even born.

I know the Beavers, who find themselves tied with USC and Cal, would love to repay the favor this year.

California: These guys are walking proof of the absolute folly of preseason polls. Ranked absurdly high even after crushing a hapless Maryland team at home and squeaking by middling Minnesota on the road, Cal was brought rudely back to reality by the Ducks and Trojans, dooming their hopes of an elusive Pac-10 title.

The Golden Bears have found league play quite challenging, most recently squeaking by Arizona State thanks to a last-second field goal. They also had problems against UCLA, a squad winless in Pac-10 play.

Fortunately for Cal, those teams have inept offenses that can't move the ball against Division II defenses, let alone a decent major-conference squad. Unfortunately for Cal, the remaining teams on their schedule are all better than either UCLA or ASU.

Arizona: I find this team to be an intriguing group. Nationally ranked for the first time in nearly a decade, the Wildcats have so far put together an impressive 3-1 record in league play, including a victory over Oregon State at Reser Stadium. Beating the Beavers on the road is a difficult thing to do...just ask USC.

Arizona seems to be a well-rounded team: they don't pass the ball really well, they don't run it very well, and their defense isn't extraordinary. However, they execute all aspects of the game well enough to win on a consistent basis, led by their efficient sophomore quarterback, Nick Foles.

Unlike some of the other teams on this list, they have yet to play either Oregon or Southern Cal. If they can maintain the status quo and go up against the Ducks with only one conference loss, we might see "College GameDay" visit Tuscon, the gravesite for "The Oregon Ducks, circa 2007".

Stanford: For all those doubters out there that still believe the Pac-10 is full of pussball pass-happy squads, just take a look at the Cardinal. This is a team on the West Coast (in the very birthplace of the famous West Coast offense, no less) dedicated to old-school Big Ten tactics...three yards and a cloud of dust.

With the brutish Toby Gerhart running behind a large and punishing offensive line, and an intelligent freshman (Andrew Luck) under center, Stanford made some early noise in league play, taking down four conference opponents.

They've since suffered a couple of setbacks, taking their record down to 4-2 and a loss column tie with three other schools.

With Oregon coming to the Farm in Palo Alto for the annual West Coast Bird Bowl, the Cardinal will be looking to knock the new kings off their throne.

They'll have to play a complete game to do it, but the potential is there...I haven't forgotten what they did to the Trojans two years ago, and neither will Chip Kelly.

Washington: Even though they've fallen on hard times lately, the Huskies practically ooze prestige and history. This program was the alpha dog in the Pac-10 during my childhood in the early-mid 90s, winning a couple league titles and even splitting the national crown with Nebraska in 1991.

As a youngster, I was raised to hate the very sight of purple. Now, as a young adult who happens to be a Ducks fan, I laugh at the ineptitude that Washington has been struggling through for much of this decade.

However, this year has brought hope to the program in the form of Steve Sarkasian, the young up-and-coming coach that took over a Husky squad that went win-less last year and not only made them competitive, but improbably upset national power USC and dealt Arizona their only league loss so far this year.

Even if Jake Locker leaves for the NFL (with an 0-3 record against Oregon...muahaha), Sarkasian has proven that he can make a bad team better.

His next step will be to score at least one road conference win next year, and bring in the talent he'll need to put Washington football back on the map to stay.

The Also-Rans: Arizona State has taken a step backward since Rudy Carpenter's graduation. While their defense is very good, their offense has been a work-in-progress.

If ASU can scratch out a bowl berth, they might keep the carpet-bagging Dennis Erickson from bolting to his next fixer-upper for another year.

Poor UCLA. The athletes are there, the coaching staff is supposed to be top-notch, and the defense is loaded with its usual slew of NFL prospects.

However, the lack of chemistry between Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow, the lack of discipline from their players, and the general mishandling of the development of two gifted young quarterbacks has so far resulted in a win-less conference season.

The Bruins have gotten the meat of the conference schedule out of the way, and they won't stay win-less in the Pac-10 for long. However, they can forget about a bowl this year.

The Neuheisel Watch will officially begin in 2010.

As for Washington State...well, they're Wazzu. Nothing more needs to be said. I'll be surprised if they win a league game this year.

(Just to be cruel, and because I disdain Rick Neuheisel, I hope Wazzu beats UCLA. If that happens, not even Slick Rick's silver tongue will save his neck this time.)

Random Ravings: Who Will and Maybe Could Start For Portland, and Why

Jared Wright — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:54:05 -0400

All around town, when the subject turns to the Portland Trail Blazers, I hear some common themes. Generally, the talk is about how the team looks this year, that they're expected to contend this year, how much Greg Oden has improved.

One potential festering nest of negativity, however, is about who should begin the first few minutes of this year's games. The merits, demerits, and statistics of certain players are trotted out like show dogs at the Westminster, brought before we the people to judge accordingly.

After hearing all the scuttlebutt and sniping amongst friends of mine (and a few people here, as well...you know who you are), I've decided to weigh in with my opinion about the Blazers' depth chart.

I don't expect to be able to convince anyone. I don't expect to even generate conversation, positive or otherwise. I just feel a need to air my thoughts, and maybe get some angst out of our systems.

I'll list the players in order: starter, backup, benchwarmer

Point Guards: Andre Miller, Steve Blake, Jerryd Bayless

This is perhaps the most hotly debated position on the team, and rightfully so. Steve Blake is a beloved fan favorite, and he had a career year last year. He shoots much better than Miller, has worked with the team's stars for years, and is a player that does his best work without the ball.

However, I believe the reason that the Blazers brought in Miller was to do the ball-handling work. A starter in the NBA since his rookie year, he has proved over a long career that he can lead a team on the floor. Miller's ball skills are second to Brandon Roy's on the team only because Roy's a prodigious talent.

The reason why Andre Miller should start is because when Blake and Roy—two players that prefer being off-the-ball—are in the game together, the offense stagnates. Defenses swarm all over Roy, forcing him into bad passes that get picked off, and taken for easy baskets.

To sum up, while Blake has his place on the team as a spot-up shooter, the Blazers do not need a spot-up shooter occupying the principal ball-handling position in the game of basketball. The offense will flow much more freely with Miller in the game, which will result in less early deficits and less pressure on the bench to rescue the starters.

Once Miller learns the ins-and-outs of the offense, it will become clear why Portland got him in the first place.

Shooting Guard: Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless

Look, I and others have gushed over Roy enough during his time here. We know what he can do, what he means to this team, and that any success the Blazers have this year is dependant on how well he plays.

Unfortunately, the other guys know all this too.

The challenge for Roy this year will be to continue to learn how to be productive when teams concentrate their entire defensive schemes around keeping him quiet. He will have to be consistent on the perimeter, look to slash to the basket more often, and be a vocal leader on the floor.

When things get tough, he needs to be the guy that gets the Blazers through.

As for Rudy, he is perhaps the best backup shooting guard in the NBA. If he started for other teams, he'd be very capable of a 20-point average. Rudy has been told that he can be more creative with the ball when he's out there, so look for more incredible passing this year.

Small Forward: Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw

Now, understand that this will be the starting order : It's not meant to say who plays more. What I think will happen is that Batum will start, but Webster will play the majority of the minutes; a repeat of last season, at first. A random ballpark estimate for minutes probably would be 15-20 for Nic, and 20-25 for Martell.

Roy might spend a few minutes here and there playing the three in a three-guard lineup, depending on the matchup and game scenario.

What Batum brings to the team is length, athleticism, and a defensive presence on the perimeter that should go nicely with an aggressive center in the middle. What Webster brings is a silky-smooth shooting touch, athletic ability nearly on par with Batum's, and an offensive presence that stretches the floor and opens things up for the inside guys.

What's very encouraging about these two young guys is that they're each learning the other's specialty: Batum's expanding his range and offensive game, while Webster's been spending most of his time in the league learning defensive positioning and technique.

Whomever becomes the more complete player by midseason should earn the lion's share of the minutes at small forward.

Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge, Juwan Howard, Travis Outlaw

I don't think I have to explain about Aldridge. His incredible skill set makes him a defensive nightmare for those forwards, either not as big or as quick as he is. The one thing I'll be looking for out of LA this year will be great defense.

I remember coach Nate McMillian saying once that if Aldridge worked at it and made an effort on the defensive end, he could be on par with Kevin Garnett. He certainly has the body type to be dominant on defense. Whether he has the will has yet to be determined.

However, Aldridge can only play so many minutes before he needs a breather. The problem for the Blazers last year was that they didn't have a reliable big man who could play 10-12 minutes a night and continue to do the little things that Aldridge does. Namely, rebounding.

Last year, Channing Frye didn't play very often because he was a terrible rebounder. Outlaw, while gifted in a way few others are, has no desire to bang in there with the big boys, and at a skinny 6'9", who could blame him?

Howard provides veteran craftiness, a large body, and experience at rebounding on both sides of the ball. I believe he's a more reliable player than Outlaw, and what this team needs more than anything else is reliability.

Center: Greg Oden, Joel Pryzbilla, Jarron Collins

If I had a choice to be anyone in the world, anywhere, one person I would not pick is Greg Oden. Ever since he was drafted, he has been hailed as the guy that will tip the scales for Portland, the big man that would give the dogpile a gargantuan shove into the championship end-zone. The pressure that brings must be enormous.

Through the injuries, the self-doubt, and the neurotic "rookie" season, Oden has persevered and worked on refining his game. Injury-free and moving just fine, he has been a force during the preseason, proving that he is nearly Pryzbilla's equal on defense right now. Eventually, he will surpass Joel in that regard, provided he keeps working as hard as he can.

Since Oden is a much better offensive option than the Vanilla Gorilla (Charles Barkley does have his moments), I think he should start. McMillian is likely to shuffle around the two based on offensive production, defensive schemes, and who's out on the floor for both teams. And, of course, foul trouble.

Now that I got that out of my system...GO BLAZERS!!!!

Random Ravings: The Oregon Ducks Have a Great Defense...!?!?

Jared Wright — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 08:24:35 -0400

It's good to be back! After a three-month hiatus, I'm once again writing quality articles...or opinionated tripe, whichever. It depends on the reader.

Just because I've taken a break from writing, commenting, and generally putting my thoughts out there doesn't mean I haven't noticed all that's been going on with the Oregon football program lately. That Boise State game was the most horrendous display of offensive ineptitude I've ever seen from the Ducks, and to cap the whole fiasco...well, you all know what happened next.

Being a half-full kind of guy, I won't expound on the troubles that have beset the program in relation to LeGarrette Blount. As far as I'm concerned, Chip Kelly's boys don't need that big baby.They've done just fine without him.

After the trip to Boise, the Ducks have enjoyed an unprecedented run of four straight home games. Oregon struggled to beat Purdue, but win they did thanks to Walter Thurmond. They had batter luck with Utah, thanks to a stifling defense led by Thurmond and a sterling linebacker corps. The offense also showed signs of life...or rather, the run game did.

Jeremiah Masoli, hero of last year's Holiday Bowl beat-down of Oklahoma State, spent his first three games of the 2009 campaign laying eggs. And not just regular eggs, mind you. These were of the rotten, messy, stinky variety. He hit rock bottom against the Utes, to the tune of four-for-16 passing. A 25 percent completion percentage from your quarterback usually means one of two things: you lose horribly because you're one dimensional, or your defense grows some serious stones and saves your quarterback's hinder.

Masoli spent the week leading up to the game with sixth-ranked California hearing all sorts of scuttlebutt from the press, the students and (forgive me) the bleachers, saying that Nate Costa should start, that Masoli couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, that whatever magic he had last season had dissipated.

And then...the Cal game. Need I say more?

After pounding on a hapless Washington State team that would be middling in the Big Sky Conference, Oregon faced another big test—their first road game in over a month, against a UCLA team with defensive talent all over the place. There is enough NFL-caliber talent on that side of the ball to make pro scouts drool themselves dry.

UCLA held Oregon down throughout the first half, utilizing that great defense to full effect. But I wasn't worried. Watching that game, in between cursing Oregon's dumb penalties, I had a big smile on my face. Wanna know why?

Oregon's defense is awesome. I realize that awesome is the most over-used adjective in the English language, but I just have to say awesome because it's the only thing I can think of whenever I see Kenny Rowe and Casey Matthews rip away footballs and absolutely destroy quarterbacks and halfbacks. Awesome.

The Bruins don't have a great offense, but you don't have to have a great offense in order to get in the end-zone when you have it at the 1-yard-line. Twice. You don't have to have a great offense in order to produce more than a 52-yard field goal on a drive that lasts nearly eight friggin' minutes...an eternity in football. Hell, I've seen some teams put up 21 points in eight minutes!

That was a product of Oregon's newfound defensive dominance. A defense that has a great linebacking corps, a secondary that seamlessly replaces its injured stars, and an underrated defensive line that's excellent in eating up blocks, allowing the likes of Rowe and Matthews to...er...introduce themselves to the guy holding the ball.

However, I'm not sure if this mojo will last. Oregon still has to travel to Stanford's Farm to take on the Mammoth Man-Mountain, Toby Gerhart, and his five enormous friends. They still have the Civil War, and the Rodgers brothers, to go through. And who could forget that Halloween date with USC coming up?

Even their very next game will pose serious problems. The Washington Huskies, principle rivals of the Ducks (sorry, Beaver believers), have already proved that they're back on the rise. Jake Locker is the most dangerous dual threat quarterback this side of Tim Tebow, the Husky running game is solid in a conference chock-full of solid running games, and their own defense knows how to milk a home-field advantage.

If you don't believe that last point, just ask Southern Cal and Arizona.

Oregon is unlikely to go through all four of those quality opponents undefeated. If they did, they'd not only be in line for the first undefeated Pac-10 season since the round-robin format was introduced (unbelievable that USC hasn't done that yet), they'd be in the discussion for the national title game (!!!).

Okay, it won't happen, but if they can get three of those four games and sweep the Arizona schools, the Ducks might have a shot at the BCS. I'm just not sure if they could get an at-large berth with two losses. Oregon will need to win the Pac-10 to get into a BCS bowl, I think.

They need to beat the Trojans. And they can't overlook the Huskies.

If Oregon can get to the Farm still undefeated in conference play, it would be a good start...and a cue for more nervous finger-biting.

Random Ravings: Can Brandon Roy and the Vulcans Mix in Portland?

Jared Wright — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 07:26:26 -0400

I read an interesting column in the newspaper on Friday. Apparently, the Portland Trail Blazers are offering Brandon Roy a four-year extension, with dollar amounts undisclosed. Normally, this would be great news, for Roy is widely-regarded as the third-best shooting guard in the NBA, behind Kobe Bryant and Dwayne Wade. He is the unquestioned leader of the Blazers, and the main reason for their success.

The catch? Roy's camp wants a five-year extension.

The dollar amount isn't the issue, in my opinion; eventually, Roy's going to get the maximum amount. The sagging economy, while hitting the city of Portland hard, isn't an issue either, or as much as an issue as people would be led to believe. Not even the length of the contract is the problem.

The problem, my friends, are the Vulcans. Or, more precisely, the folks at Vulcan, Inc.

In case you aren't familiar with Vulcan, let me provide a flashback: several years ago, the Trail Blazers were racked by community-damaging players, their inability to keep their own arena (the one that Paul Allen, the Blazers owner, personally funded all by his lonesome), and a sea of red ink.

The situation got so bad that Allen seriously considered selling the team. This fact was alarming because he's easily one of the most supportive and wealthiest owners in professional sports, not to mention a man that doesn't give up easily on his business ventures.

While going through his options, Allen got his business venture think tank, Vulcan, involved. The Vulcans did an audit on all the Blazers' expenses, revenue, personnel performance, and business solvency.

This is what the Vulcans told Allen: fire your current president (Steve Patterson, since replaced with former Nike executive Larry Miller), your current GM (John Nash, since replaced with former underling Kevin Pritchard), several dozen support staff and buy back the Rose Garden.

Do all this, and the business that is the Portland Trail Blazers should be at the "break-even" point in several years.

Allen did all that his think tank suggested, and it has paid off in spades. Miller has the organization running economically and efficiently, handling the business side of the Blazers as well as anyone. Pritchard cleaned up the roster, transforming it into arguably the most talented and potential-laden squad in basketball.

While laying off those workers was a bad PR move, buying back the Rose Garden has the revenue streams back on track, and when the economy improves, those jobs should be open again.

And best of all, the Blazers were a hit in the community again.

The revival of the Portland Trail Blazers began with the Vulcans. If Paul Allen isn't careful, however, it may end with the Vulcans, too.

John Canzano, a columnist for The Oregonian, wrote that Vulcan, Inc., might be interfering with Pritchard's efforts to resign Roy. While Canzano makes his daily bread by fear-mongering, I believe he has a point this time around.

Kevin Pritchard is a smart man. Even if he is distracted by his efforts to acquire the missing cogs for a Blazer championship run, he shouldn't be hesitating to satisfy his star by signing him to the deal that he wants.

The suggestion that someone is ham-stringing Pritchard has traction when you consider that Tod Leiweke, the president of Vulcan, said that the Blazers are near the magical "break-even" point that Allen wants the franchise to be at. It also gets more traction when you consider that the Vulcans are mainly pure number-crunchers, the kind of people that look at the numbers and say "do this, do that" without considering other outcomes.

Allen may be trying, on the basis of Vulcan's data, to convince Pritchard to offer Roy an inferior deal when everyone with a clear head and a grain of common sense can see he is not only worthy of a maximum deal, he's the lowest business risk the Blazers will take perhaps in my lifetime.

However, the Vulcans would look at the length of contract Roy wants, the worsening Oregon economy, and the revenue/expense data, and they would say that signing Roy to that kind of deal would cost the Blazers more than they should pay.

Allow me to make a totally awful pun and call that kind of thinking...illogical.

First off, about the length of the deal. If it were possible, Pritchard would make Brandon Roy a Blazer for the rest of his life. All the man does is win you ball games, and he is only going to get better as he enters his prime. Signing Roy for five more years means you keep him until he reaches the age of 31.

In short, a great player plays for you while in his prime. You get his best years, and Brandon Roy's best years may be some of the best the NBA will see in a long time.

Secondly, the economy is forcing teams everywhere to cut back. Even in the states where it's effects aren't as acutely felt, the sports teams that reside there are looking at their respective off-seasons with a frugal eye.

In Oregon, the economy is especially destructive. The jobless rate here is the second-highest in the country, hovering around 12 percent. Roughly one out of eight of Oregon's five million-plus residents are unemployed, and many thousands that have jobs definitely can't afford to go to a ballgame.

However, the Vulcans don't realize the fact that, as the only major pro sports franchise in Portland, the Trail Blazers are a beloved part of life here. When they're reasonably successful (like now), the team has no trouble at all drawing sellouts--the Rose Garden, capacity 19,280, regularly had to squeeze in 20,000+ fans night in and night out.

People will come out to see the team, even when times are lean, because the team has something good going on. That will disappear if Brandon Roy is allowed to depart the Rose City in 2010.

To conclude, the Vulcans are looking at how much money the team is making. Despite the gains of the last three seasons, the Blazers are still in negative numbers—which means they're costing Paul Allen money, something that the Vulcans do not want at all.

To try to get the Blazers back into the black, they do what every business entity does: cut costs, services, and even people to save money. This approach may save businesses in the real world, but it would wreck the Trail Blazers, both on the court and on the balance sheet.

Roy's value as a player is obvious, but what the Seattle-based Vulcans don't realize is that Roy is as valuable as a spokesman for the Blazers, and as a team ambassador to the people of Portland. His charitable efforts all over the Pacific Northwest, his easy-going demeanor, and his ability to always say and do the right thing have endeared him to Portland.

While the short-term gains of not giving Roy what he wants would be evident to the Vulcans, the long-term pains that the Blazers would suffer would be evident to everybody else.

To sum up this very long article, I implore Mr. Tod Leiweke and his team at Vulcan, Inc., to kindly keep their noses out of Kevin Pritchard's business. While the Vulcans were instrumental in reviving the Portland Trail Blazers, they have outlived their usefulness to the team as far as I'm concerned.

If Paul Allen doesn't realize this, we may be in for a very tense period of time in the Rose City.

Random Ravings: Analysing Possible Trail Blazers

Jared Wright — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:55:32 -0400

If the headline above this article didn't scream Captain Obvious, I wanted to use this time to highlight some free-agents that are available this summer, and pitch in my thoughts about how effective, or ineffective, they would be playing for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2009-10.

The Blazers have somewhere between $7 and $8 million to offer this year, but Kevin Pritchard, the Blazers GM, has a reputation for making trades that likely will grow this year, if the scuttlebutt from every corner of the Portland sports scene is to be believed.

Knowing this, I'll list some players that Portland may not be able to afford, unless they get rid of a couple of their current players.

Pritchard has a history of going outside the box and taking gambles other GMs would shy away from, a trait he'll have to exercise to full effect if he's going to adequately fulfill owner Paul Allen's edict to improve the roster for next season. He's likely taking a look at all these players as I write this.

Hedo Turkoglu

If you've been reading as much online print about both Turk and the Blazers during the past day as I have, you'll know Portland really, really wants this guy.

He can hit from anywhere on the court, he handles the ball very well for a guy who stands 6'10", he has a knack for passing that any team loaded with shooters will appreciate, and he has extensive postseason experience.

Most of all, however...Turkoglu's fairly consistent. He doesn't take many games off, like Travis Outlaw does. Outlaw is a player that can win you tonight's game and lose tomorrow's and next week's games because of his inconsistency in terms of his production.

Nate McMillan also asked him to switch positions to power forward at times, forcing Outlaw into a place where he was uncomfortable.

It can be argued that Outlaw and Turkoglu are similar players that can struggle at times with their jumpers. However, the things that separate Turk from Travis—and Martell Webster—is his ability to pass the ball, his newfound aptitude for driving to the hoop (something Nate has begged Outlaw to do consistently for years), and his bona-fide star power.

Brandon Roy won't be on all the time. He'll feel better on his off nights, however, if he knows he has Hedo Turkoglu on his team then he'll feel if Travis Outlaw stays...though Roy, who is great friends with Outlaw, would never admit it.

Andre Miller

Another guy Pritchard is reportedly seeking, Miller is a 6'2" point guard that passes well and shoots poorly. He's also 33, practically geriatric when compared to 19-year-old Nicolas Batum, 21-year-old Greg Oden, and 21-year-old Jerryd Bayless, who would back up Miller if he joined the Blazers.

It's telling why Portland wants a new starter when you think about Miller and Steve Blake, who's 27. While Blake shoots the three better than Miller, Portland already has people that shoot much better than either of them, Rudy Fernandez and Webster (if he stays) being the preeminent examples.

Blake also lacked confidence when he had open looks, often passing up those looks. This led to Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, or Outlaw hoisting up shot-clock beaters that missed badly, wasting a possession that could have ended in a Steve Blake three-pointer.

Miller has the confidence, at least, to take an open look. Even if he misses it, at times it would be the best shot the team would get in a given possession, and Miller knows this. Blake and Sergio Rodriguez, who was traded before draft night, both had so much trouble figuring this out that McMillian would literally scream across the court, "SHOOT IT!" whenever they were open.

Personally, I think Jerryd Bayless is the future at point guard. I also think he would learn more about being a point guard watching Andre Miller than Steve Blake. Let Miller finish out his more productive seasons in Portland, while McMillian grooms Bayless.

Trevor Ariza

Now calm down, Blazer fans. I only mention Ariza because the Lakers reportedly have decided to cut ties with Ariza so they can bring back Lamar Odom, and because he's very long, athletic, and has the makings of a good defender. He also can finish explosively at the basket.

However, three obstacles would get in the way of Ariza donning the Blazer black, white, and red. First, he's the guy that nearly decapitated Fernandez when the latter was trying to finish a fast-break during a game in Portland.

Fernandez had to leave the game on a stretcher, and while he would be okay—and actually played better after he almost broke his neck—Ariza's status of "Hated Laker" was forever etched in stone. The fans nearly booed the roof off the Rose Garden when he started the next game against the Blazers.

Secondly, as a key cog to the Lakers' title run last season, Ariza would command a sizable amount of money. It might not be too high for Portland, if they really want him, but the third obstacle will deter them.

It turns out that Portland already has a player that's not only similar to Ariza, but also younger. His name is Nicolas Batum, and as long as Batum has a roster spot on the Blazers, Ariza will not.

Jason Kidd

This possibility is intriguing. While Kidd is old at 36, he proved last year that he still has enough left to be a productive basketball player. He may not be as quick as he was, and he never shot the ball well, but his passing acumen is second maybe to Steve Nash, and that's a maybe.

Kidd is a certain Hall of Famer and one of the best point guards ever, and he is very battle-tested—he's been to the Finals multiple times. He would bring quite a bit to a youthful Blazer team still trying to figure out how to win the big games.

Unfortunately, he is 36. He would be very old for a basketball player when Roy, Aldridge, and Fernandez hit their primes, and he'll be retired when the younger Blazers reach their late-20s.

Even if they were pursuing Kidd, the Portland brass may have to forget about him anyway; there's word from Dallas that the Mavericks are preparing to offer him a three-year deal. If that's true, Kidd will certainly take it.

Antonio McDyess

While Portland did pick up Jeff Pendergraph, who I like very much, Pritchard would be very wise to take out an insurance policy on the backup power forward position by taking this veteran warrior. If McDyess can indeed be persuaded to come to the Rose City, he'd keep a certain situation from happening again.

Blazer fans should know all about this, but in case you haven't followed the Blazers consistently, here's the lowdown: Last season, LaMarcus Aldridge started all the games for Portland at power forward (if I'm not mistaken; if I am, someone in the comments, or an editor, will have to enlighten me).

He's a physical specimen, always keeps himself in great shape. He'd still be breathing easy during the second quarter while Roy, Oden, Blake, and others would be wheezing their lungs out.

However, even Aldridge gets tired. Usually halfway through the second quarter, Nate McMillian would have to take him out. At first, he replaced Aldridge with Channing Frye.

This plan seemed good until Frye, for some reason, lost his shooting stroke. Since he was never much of a rebounder or defender, there was no reason for Frye to play once he couldn't produce offensively, so McMillian tried something else.

It was this lineup: a center (Oden or Joel Przybilla, usually was Oden), Outlaw at the four, Roy at the three, Fernandez, and a point guard, usually Sergio Rodriguez, at this time of game.

It provided great offensive returns, but McMillian still had trouble getting consistent defense and rebounding. He also had a new problem: if opposing coaches had a larger three that could score in bunches, they would put him in and exploit the 6'6" Roy on defense as well, either getting Portland's best player in foul trouble or getting easier cracks at the hoop.

And while Roy's a decent rebounder, he's not meant to have to bang against guys four or five inches taller than him trying to help the skinny Outlaw on the weakside boards.

Pendergraph, for all his assets, is not the sure thing the Blazers need. If Portland could sign Antonio McDyess, all these problems would vanish in an instant. Aldridge would get his rest, McMillian would get his boards and defense, and the Blazers would get better.

These are just a few examples I listed, but there are many options to pursue. While I would prefer it if the Blazers simply stood pat and let the guys they have now develop, Allen, Pritchard and McMillian are not thinking this way. I only hope that they continue to make the right additions, and get this team one step closer to that shiny golden trophy.

Random Ravings: Predicting Winners and Losers in the 2009 NBA Draft

Jared Wright — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 06:18:52 -0400

As is the case with pretty much every draft in every sport, there are differing opinions concerning this year's NBA Draft. While everyone is in agreement that the Los Angeles Clippers will take advantage of their ridiculous luck by drafting Blake Griffin, every other spot is in considerable doubt.

The teams immediately following the Clippers will make decisions that will determine whether they'll be able to compete for a championship in a few years, while teams in the lower third of the first round will either pick a project, a role player or shop their pick.

There are numerous mock drafts floating around, and I'm neither informed nor astute enough to try to make one. However, after looking at several mocks (John Lorge's is a great one, by the way), reading comments and reactions to them, and learning about teams' needs, I've developed several hunches about who (teams and players) will end up as winners and losers in this year's draft.

The Winners

Oklahoma City: You see that photo at the top of this article, the one where Kevin Durant is guarded by Kobe Bryant? That could very well be a scene from the Western Conference Finals several years from now.

Already stuffed with young players with great potential, the Thunder have the chance to add another one this year. Picking third, Oklahoma City will likely select Ricky Rubio or Hasheem Thabeet, two very different players that could fill two very different needs for them.

If they select Thabeet, the Thunder will get a huge (7'2") center with the wingspan of a golden eagle. From the time he first steps foot onto an NBA court, Thabeet will be a shot blocker of the first order, a game-changing defensive presence that the Thunder have lacked for years (dating back to their days as the Seattle SuperSonics).

If they select Rubio, Oklahoma City immediately improves their offensive game with a teenage prodigy that has skills with the ball few even in the NBA can rival.

While Rubio will have much to learn about the NBA game (namely, when and when not to push the action or force passes), there is no reason to believe that he won't eventually develop into a star point guard.

Either way, Oklahoma City will fill a pressing need in this draft--and fill it with a player they can develop with the other young stars they have.

Sacramento: While they did lose the Blake Griffin Sweepstakes, the Kings do have two picks in this year's first round, including the fourth pick. This class has a very intriguing player on the wing that has oodles of potential: Demar DeRozan.

He is athletic, skilled with the ball and can fill the net night in and night out. After trading away John Salmons and Brad Miller, Sacramento has holes to fill at both small forward and center. They would get a better player on the wing with the fourth pick, with Thabeet already gone, and with the draft being so thin on bigs.

It's not impossible to think that the Kings could take DeRozan, but a likelier scenario might be a point guard like Brandon Jennings; either player would be someone they could groom into an impact player to team with Kevin Martin.

This draft marks the beginning of Sacramento's effort to rebuild their shattered franchise, and here's hoping the fans there have the patience to let the front office try.

Tyreke Evans: This guy is a freak. At 6'5", he's hardly imposing for an off-guard, but his wingspan was measured at an astounding 6'11", and his standing reach of 8'8" makes some big men jealous. Coupled with his good lateral quickness, he has the attributes of a shutdown defender, something that every team in the league is scouring the globe to find.

Evans also is an explosive scorer that can handle the ball very well (thanks to Memphis' style of play), and his vertical game is nothing to sneeze at. His outside game could use a little work, but he can easily change a game just by being what he is--a quick, long athlete that is difficult to guard and even harder to get past on defense.

If his eventual team is committed to teaching him proper defensive and jump-shooting techniques, Tyreke Evans could end up being one of the top three or four players to come out of this draft class.

Los Angeles Clippers: Even though I list them as a winner, I just don't feel right about this team. Sure, Blake Griffin looks like he'll posterize and outmuscle opponents for the next fifteen years, but he's going to be playing for a team loaded with frontcourt veterans, lacking multiple impact wing players, and primed for a conflict between Baron Davis and Mike Dunleavy.

The Clippers have been the model for failure, decrepitude and overall professional wretchedness since before I was born. The front office is easily the worst in the league, and I don't see that changing with the Griffin pick. If he were going to a rebuilding team that would be built around him, I'd say good for the Clips.

But since he's going to a team that doesn't know what direction they want to go in just yet, that currently employs an egomaniac (Zach Randolph) that plays Griffin's position, and that just throws a group of basketball players together and hopes they can somehow succeed...even for Blake Griffin, this job may just be too big.

The Losers

Washington: When I look at this team, and where they draft this year, I feel nothing but a deep sense of pity. They already have three perimeter players (Gilbert Arenas, Antwan Jamison, Caron Butler) that are very good players, amongst the best at what they do. Those three guys could bring the Wizards to a playoff berth if they stay healthy.

However, Washington desperately, desperately needs a post player. They need someone that can play with their back to the basket, someone that can reliably snag 10-12 rebounds a game, someone they can just dump the ball to whenever Arenas' or Jamison's jumpers aren't falling.

Yet the two players the Wizards are most likely to draft are James Harden and Tyreke Evans...two guys that play the same positions as the three stars I mentioned above. Washington won't find its post answer this year--and time is swiftly running out for them.

New York: All the draft buzz has been about Stephen Curry in the Big Apple. Everyone that I've come into contact with over the past few weeks has the Knicks taking Curry in the draft this year. They look at Curry, and they see the three-point shooter that Mike D'Antoni craves.

I look at Curry, and I see J.J. Redick.

Curry is a drop-dead shooter, and he will see NBA action. However, the Knicks need a point guard that can distribute the ball, and he will never, ever be that type of guy. He's a shooting guard trapped in a point guard's body, and he's not the answer for New York at the point, whatever his connections to LeBron James.

If they do end up taking Stephen Curry, the Knicks will not find the guy they really need to make this team better...but, I think they're just trying to make the team more attractive to LeBron, in the mistaken hope that he'll somehow think he has a better chance to win a title in New York than in Cleveland.

Fours and Fives: It's been well-known that this class is thin on bigs. Everyone that's done a draft-related article has noticed the lack of high-caliber centers and power forwards, with Griffin and Thabeet the only post players reliably projected to go in the top ten picks.

Two players I want to single out are Jordan Hill and B.J. Mullins. Hill, the Arizona prospect, has been the proverbial yo-yo in terms of opinion. Some folks rave about his hustle, defensive activity and underrated rebounding. Other people state that Hill lacks athleticism, strength and overall potential.

All Hill needs is the right team to latch on to. If he's fortunate enough to find a system that suits his skills, and a coach willing to leave him in there long enough for him to make a difference, he could be a productive player.

Mullins' fate is less certain. Once considered a sure-fire lottery pick, the Ohio State freshmen center has fallen off the map due to the dearth of skilled perimeter players and his own discipline problems. Mullins has all the physical tools needed to be a very good center in the NBA, but as is often the case with big men, he seems to lack that drive, the work ethic and desire to be the best that all but the best don't have.

Mullins needs an environment where he can be allowed to grow into the kind of player he's capable of being. He's a very young man—almost as young as Ricky Rubio—and undue pressure would tear apart his fragile psyche.

A smaller market picking in the late teens-early 20s, like Minnesota, Oklahoma City (if they don't nab Thabeet) or perhaps New Orleans, might be the perfect fit for him.

Overall, however, it's a bad year to be a big man.

All comments, corrections, and general "what the hell is this guy on!?" remarks welcome, as usual.

Forget the Orlando Magic, the Cleveland Cavaliers will Make the NBA Finals

Jared Wright — Mon, 18 May 2009 07:32:19 -0400

It may have taken a while (thanks, Boss, for keeping me at work for 12 hours), but I've prepared a rebuttal to Brandon Ribak's article saying the the Orlando Magic will go to the NBA Finals...and not the Cleveland Cavaliers, the most dominant team in the playoffs.

Before I launch into my explanation why I'm picking Cleveland, let me just say that I respect the Magic enough to give them a considerable chance to go to the Finals. They are going to roll into Cleveland riding a mountainous swell of momentum, for they didn't just beat the Celtics.

They beat the Celtics after trailing five games into their seven-game series, something that has never happened. They beat the Celtics, on the road, in convincing fashion, without needing Dwight Howard to score 20 points.

In a few words, the Magic have officially entered contender status. Whether they'll get a shot at that shiny gold trophy depends on them defeating arguably the best team in the league, and defeating them four times.

Here's five reasons why they won't get that chance.

1. The Home Court

Any scrub with an iota of NBA wisdom knows how utterly dominating the Cavaliers have been at home. There are more daunting places to play, like Staples Center (at least when the Lakers play...) or the (former) Boston Garden. There are louder arenas in the league, like Utah's Energy Solutions Arena or Portland's Rose Garden.

But the Quicken Loans Arena, the Cavs' home floor, has been pure gold for them. If it weren't for Mike Brown resting all his important players in the last game of the regular season, they likely would have gone 40-1. Still, thirty-nine wins at home is stupefying.

Except for the Lakers, no team has beaten Cleveland on their floor in a competitive game. Not the Celtics. Not the Nuggets. Not the Spurs.

And not the Magic, either.

People will tell you that Orlando went 2-1 against Cleveland in the regular season. I'd tell you that the two losses were on Orlando's floor, and the famous 40-point whipping happened in a game of little consequence.

Orlando will have to steal a game on the road to win the series. If they don't do it in Game One, when the Cavaliers will be most vulnerable, they likely won't be able to.

2. Fresh Legs

While the Magic have youth on their side, they can't be feeling too chipper after a physical, full series against Boston, who fought, scratched, and clawed to no avail. They'll be feeling some fatigue. They'll be drawing on their second and third winds sooner and sooner as the long postseason wears on.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has been resting more than playing. They haven't had to go through the rigors of physical and mental wear and tear. They've had a nice long break from the playoff "grind" (in quotations for them), and are fresh, eager and ready to go.

I do realize that there have been some examples of teams (in all sports) coming off long layoffs and plunging straight into big games...and losing badly. There is a danger here, especially with Orlando coming off the lunatic high of beating down the Celtics the way they did.

However, I'm of the opinion that LeBron James is not one who will allow his team to tank like that. He's been keeping them loose and easy, and the practices they'll have will knock some of the rust off and loosen up the joints. If James can keep the Cavs from the sort of letdown that they've been perfectly set up for, they'll be able to keep the home-court advantage, and eliminate Orlando.

3. LeBron James Will Shut Down Hedo Turkoglu

Turkoglu, the Magic's starting small forward, has really grown the last several years. He's evolved from being a pure spot-up shooter in Sacramento to being the kind of all-around offensive threat every team needs in order to get to where Orlando is.

He can drive around the slower players, shoot over the smaller players, and use his underrated passing skills to get the ball out of a double-team and to the open man, one reason why Orlando is such a great 3-point shooting team.

The key perimeter threat for the Magic is Turkoglu. The guy who will be tasked with stopping him is James.

We all know that LeBron James has been using his freakish athletic traits to score in a variety ways on offense; it's no secret that he's arguably the toughest cover in the NBA. What hasn't been publicized as much is that he's been brushing up on his defense.

What we see are his spectacular blocks defending the fast-break, but James has shown the ability to defend the perimeter, to shadow the opposing forward and make his offense more and more difficult to come by--and for some players, how they perform on offense affects the way they play defense.

If James can keep Turkoglu from getting around him (for such a lanky and awkward-looking guy, he is very quick off the dribble), put himself in a couple passing lanes, and contest every single one of Turkoglu's jumpers, he'll have done all he can against a great offensive player—and it may prove to be the difference if he can bother him enough.

4. They've Been There, Seen That

Stop me if you've heard this cliche before: There's no substitute for experience. It's been proved so many times before in so many different sports, it's practically become an accepted fact amongst We the Sports Fans.

Now, with this fresh in your minds, consider what I have to say next. Many of the most important figures on the Orlando Magic have never made it this far in the playoffs before.

Dwight Howard hadn't made it beyond the first round until this year. Rashard Lewis had been beyond the opening round once, and that was with the lame-duck Sonics several years ago. Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston are all as new to the later rounds as Howard.

Even Hedo Turkoglu can be considered something of a neophyte. Sure, he's been to the conference finals before with Sacramento, but that was as a role player. This time, with the Magic, he will have to provide All-Star-caliber performances again and again if the Magic want to advance.

On the flip side, Cleveland retains many of the players it had when it went to the NBA Finals two years ago. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak were all on that team, if my memory serves me right.

Another reserve, Ben Wallace, has been to this level many a time, and was on a team that won it all. And they do have a certain dude that wears No. 23....

The Cavaliers have been battle-tested and baptized. They know what it's like to break through all the barriers holding them back. They know what it takes to summon that final effort and emerge from the conference finals to graze on the sweet pastures of the NBA Finals.

Orlando still has to figure that out—and it will be Cleveland that shows them first-hand how to be a championship-level team.

5. They Have People To Throw At Dwight Howard

One of the first-ever articles I wrote for this website was a gushfest on Dwight Howard. The man is a beast, a rebound-hogging, shot-swatting, super-athletic savage fully worthy of the nickname Superman.

There is no real way to stop him, short of illegal measures like hacking him or camping in the key hoping to keep him off the offensive glass.

That said, Howard is mortal, if barely. He can tire, even though he's in impeccable shape, and a team with the right number of bodies to throw at him can take advantage of the time when he does start to flag a bit.

The reasons neither Philadelphia nor Boston took advantage of this are because of circumstances outside their immediate control. Every single one of us knew Philly was too undersized up front to hope to contain Howard, and he promptly ate Samuel Dalembert alive.

We also know that without Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe, the Celtics had to rely on the likes of Glen Davis and Mikki Moore to spell the already disadvantaged Kendrick Perkins...and we all know how that turned out.

What gives the Cavaliers hope is that they have Ilgauskas, Varejao, and Wallace—three decent-to-good interior defenders—to rotate the job of Dwight-watching.

Why they have hope is because while Howard may grow tired and fatigued, his defender will not. There will always be someone fresh on Dwight Howard, which is something he hasn't seen in these playoffs.

Limiting Howard's rebounds and points to merely good/great numbers has to be key in the minds of Cleveland's coaching staff. They do have the bodies available to do this. They just have to use them efficiently enough to blunt Howard's impact on the game and make the Magic shoot threes to win.

When a team has to live by the three-ball in the playoffs, it often dies by it. That's what Mike Brown has to be counting on going into this series.

I'll even throw out a prediction. How about...Cleveland in seven. To think that this will be a short series is to be insane, but I don't doubt the ability of LeBron James to close the deal and hoss his team back to the NBA Finals, where they will be favored no matter who comes out of the West.

Random Ravings: Trail Blazers' End-of-Season Grades

Jared Wright — Sat, 02 May 2009 07:57:41 -0400

Well, Blazers faithful, the season has come to an end. Despite the fiery condemnations of the refereeing I've read in places, I really don't think they're to blame for Portland's loss.

The Blazers had chances to take a game in Houston earlier, but they failed like the young, inexperienced team they are.

Travis Outlaw, Greg Oden, Steve Blake, and Nicolas Batum, key cogs to this team, did not play well. In fact, Outlaw and Oden in particular were awful in the first two games, though I hate to say it.

Let this team sit in the cooker, like that side of pork we made into pulled pork earlier (it's extremely tasty, by the way). Properly managed and supervised, the Trail Blazers will mature into a tantalizing pile of pulled pork.

If this team is mismanaged or disturbed in a wrong way, it will fall apart and become a slushy mess not worth looking at, let alone eating.

The challenge for Kevin Pritchard, the GM, and Nate McMillan, the coach, will be separating the juicy bits from the dry, chaffy bits.

Based on my off-and-on observations this season, I'll provide grades for each player, as follows:

A+ to B: Much more than expected from the player, to more than expected

B- to C: Just as expected, maybe a little more or less depending on grade.

C- to F: Less than expected to total tank job.

Let's get to it!

Brandon Roy

Honestly, what can you say about this guy? He has developed into an elite scorer, he's one of the best non-point guard distributors of the ball in the league, and he has a basketball IQ on par with Kobe Bryant (can I really say that!?).

The man even rebounds the ball as well as any guard, to the point where McMillan hasn't minded placing the 6-6 Roy at small forward for short stretches of the season.

Substituting Roy for LaMarcus Aldridge had become a staple for the coach during the season, as Travis Outlaw has shown an aptitude for playing the 4 spot...but that's later on, sorry.

My point is, Roy has clearly exceeded every possible expectation for him this season. He has become the thoroughbred stud the Blazers need if they want success.

Grade: A+

LaMarcus Aldridge

Another player who has developed well this year, Aldridge came into the season with questions about whether he can score in the paint, whether he can up his defensive intensity to a level acceptable to McMillan, and whether he can be a reliable sidekick for Roy.

The first and the third questions, in my eyes, have been answered.

LA, as I like to call him, has developed a sweet jump hook that he can shoot over a smaller power forward (Aldridge is tall for a 4, at 6-11) or fire on the run as he goes around a slower player.

His turnaround jumper, a staple of his back-to-the-basket game earlier in the season, lost favor as the hook became his favorite post move.

His PPG this year was 18.1, a solid number for a No. 2 option in the NBA. The remaining question for Aldridge is about defense.

I've heard McMillan gush about Aldridge's defensive potential, even going so far as to say that LA could be as good or better than Kevin Garnett on defense, if he would only put in the effort.

Whether he does that may end up making the difference for Portland.

Grade: B+

Nicolas Batum

Quick question: who the heck had this guy starting about 70 games this season on a team with Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster?

Based on the expectation that he'd provide nothing for Portland this season, you have to call the Frenchman the surprise of the season.

His defense has been a very welcome addition to a team that was starting to look like Lakers Jr., circa 2008.

Batum's hard-nosed play and tough presence, coupled with his rangy arms and explosive jump, have more than compensated for his spotty offense.

If he ever gets to the point where he averages 10 a game, he'll be more living proof that Kevin Pritchard is a genius.

Grade: A

Joel Pryzbilla

The Vanilla Gorilla is another example of toughness and grit on a team that lacks some from time to time. His rebounding, post defense and timely shot-blocking have enabled him to keep his starting role, despite the presence of Oden.

Fans of opposing teams have accused Pryzbilla of being a flopper and a pansy. I say, look at him jawing with Shaquille O'Neal during a pivotal game against Phoenix.

Look at the Thrilla and Tyson Chandler clashing until both were ejected from a game. Look at him continually standing up for his teammates and enforcing the law down low.

If Greg Oden ever gains half the salt that Joel has in him, he'll be an All-Star.

Grade: B-

Steve Blake

Somehow, Blake finds a way to do what others say he could never do. He improved his three-point shooting to a career high while starting for a playoff team...again. He has been steady all season long, and has grown along with other teammates.

However, he does have a tendency to disappear during big moments of games. I still remember him missing free throws, 3s, and open men at critical junctures of games.

Blake has been guilty of heaving too much on Brandon Roy scoring-wise, while not getting open for a shot he knows he can knock down now.

I love Steve Blake, but the Blazers need someone more...how can I say this...big-time and bright lights starting at the point--someone like Jerryd Bayless, perhaps.

Grade: C+

Travis Outlaw

There's a definition of "streaky" in the dictionary, I know there is. I would bet any reader 20 bucks that Outlaw's picture is right beside it.

On the one hand, Outlaw is "Mr. Fourth Quarter", the next-best thing to Roy that Portland has. He uses a breathtaking mix of speed, athleticism, and length to get any shot he wants, anywhere on the court.

He plays both forward positions with skill, is one of the best sixth men in the NBA, and his propensity for hitting timely shots, has quickly become a by-word in the Rose City.

On the other hand, Outlaw is what he's been for most of his career: a regular role player that misses much more than he makes, doesn't use his assets to his advantage, and makes dumb mistakes too often, which forces McMillan to send him back to the pine.

In order for the Blazers to make the next step, Outlaw must cease his schizophrenic play and become the third option they missed during the Houston series.

If he can't do this, Pritchard likely will find a taker for his talents...and the soft persona that accompanies them.

Grade: B+ (His inconsistency aside...)

Rudy Fernandez

When I first saw Rudy Fernandez play, it was the Olympic gold medal game. The announcers had made a point of saying that Rudy would be playing for McMillan, who was a coach for Team USA last summer.

Shortly after this, Fernandez takes the ball, dashes to the rim, and stuffs it down...in Dwight Howard's grill.

Yeah, I said Dwight Howard.

Once I saw that, I knew Rudy would be special for Portland. His season has been up-and-down, since he's been battling the odd injuries and overall fatigue.

However, since the awful foul Trevor Ariza committed against him a while back (which ended in Fernandez getting carted off the court on a stretcher), Rudy had picked his game up.

By the end of the season, he was the most consistent bench player for Portland, usurping Outlaw's position. During the playoffs, he had his share of big moments, like hitting five three-pointers in Game 3 against the Rockets.

Rest up, Rudy. We'll need you next season.

Grade: B

Greg Oden

Whenever I think of Oden, conflicting emotions rise up within me. I know that he's somewhat serviceable now, that he'll be good next season, and that he'll hopefully blossom into the player the fans envisioned he'd be when he was taken with the top overall pick two years ago.

However, whenever I saw him commit an ugly foul, fail to put in a mere hook shot, or fumble a pass out of bounds this season, I admit my impatience took over.

I yelled at the TV screen, I cursed his big clumsy hands, and I railed against McMillan for taking him out of games, believing that Oden would get better if Nate would just leave him in.

As not only a Blazer fan, but as a fan of basketball and as a good human being, I hope Greg Oden can be a good player. I hope he can use his gifts to his advantage for a team that clearly needs someone like him. He needs to work very hard this off-season...

...Portland's prospects, and his own psyche, depend on him to be good.

Grade: D+

Sergio Rodriguez

Rodriguez had been sitting on the Blazer pine until this season. With the departure of Jarrett Jack and the rawness of Jerryd Bayless, "Spanish Chocolate" got his fair share of time...and had mixed results.

Rodriguez is an absurdly talented passer. The offense flows freer and with more movement than when Steve Blake is in the game, and Sergio used his gifts to find teammates that Blake would miss.

However, it's a known fact that he can't shoot the broad side of a barn on a normal night, and he often makes bonehead mistakes that make McMillan, a former point guard himself, pull his hair out. While he has shown improvement, Rodriguez will be hard-pressed to keep the backup job next year.

Grade: C

Channing Frye

You know, I like Frye. I really do. He seems like a smart, well-mannered individual, and I know we Blazer fans welcome that kind of demeanor with open hearts, especially after Bob "Win At Any Cost" Whittsit had his sick fun destroying the organization.

His play on the court, however...I'll be nice and call it "lacking."

In theory, having a clone of LaMarcus Aldridge sitting on the bench is nice; you don't have to do anything different after you substitute. But, while Aldridge has learned to rebound aggressively, Frye has not. While Aldridge has developed some semblance of a post game, Frye has not.

In short, whatever this team needs, Frye is not. His talents have fit so badly with the team, it's forced McMillian to go with Travis Outlaw (all 215 pounds of him) at power forward, McMillan's defensive nightmare.

Good luck at your next stop, Channing. Hope your gifts are better appreciated at said stop.

Grade: F

Jerryd Bayless

This young man has had his moments in the sun this season. His talents are extraordinary, a steal at the 11th pick of last year's draft. He has every physical attribute you look for in a stud point guard.

The problem is, he's young. And Nate McMillan is allergic to young point guards.

To be fair, Bayless is technically a combo guard. That classification is even worse, however, on a team that has Brandon Roy starting and Rudy Fernandez as his backup; Fernandez would start for 10-12 other teams in the league.

Bayless must learn to be a point guard if he has any hope of playing next year. If he can learn the position, the only thing stopping Nate from playing him is his age: a fragile barrier, at best.

Grade: C

The Twelfth Man

Whether it's Shavlik Randolph or Michael Ruffin, I don't know enough about them to give a grade. I will offer one piece of advice to them:

Brush up your cheerleading skills, guys!

Grade: Incomplete

Random Ravings: Trail Blazers/Rockets Preview, Done Extra Crispy

Jared Wright — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 09:34:45 -0400

You know, I've already written an overall playoffs preview. I've already spent hours collecting stats, analysing match-ups, and writing an article running on rock music, pizza, and Mountain Dew.

But you know, I can't resist doing a special, extended, super-sized preview of my favorite team, the Portland Trail Blazers, in their first playoff series since I was in high school learning how to shave without cutting my face apart (not much progress on that score, I'm afraid...ouch...).

What I'll do here is give you match-ups, extended thoughts and analysis, and a prediction, along with other pieces of goodness along the way.

We'll start with...

Point Guard: Steve Blake vs. Aaron Brooks

Thoughts: This one is tough to call. Brooks has the edge in quickness, and his passing ability has improved lately. He will need to be aggressive in leading the attack against the Blazer defense and create opportunities for those that can't do it themselves.

Blake, meanwhile, is the savvier of the two. He's as good a passer as Brooks, and a much better shooter, as evidenced by his career year in scoring (a solid 11 PPG). Blake doesn't have to create as much as Brooks, but the young Blazers will need his steady hand if they want to win the series.

Advantage: Even

Shooting Guard: Brandon Roy vs. Shane Battier

Thoughts: There aren't many Portland fans that don't know that Shane Battier can cover Brandon Roy.

In their three match-ups this year, Battier and his buddy Ron Artest have done an admirable job bottling up Roy, forcing him to either pass the ball or run headfirst into the wall of post defenders waiting for him. Battier doesn't score much, so he'll have to make his mark on defense.

Roy, meanwhile, has to get back to basics; namely, the midrange jumper. That shot has gone out of vogue with the NBA's lesser players, with coaches putting emphasis on three-point shooting and driving to the basket.

However, for the best players, the pull-up middie has been a consistent source of scoring whenever defenses try taking away the drive to the rack.

If Brandon wants to help his team, he needs to knock down the outside jumper--because this Houston team will not, not, NOT let him beat them any other way.

Advantage: Portland

Small Forward: Nicolas Batum vs. Ron Artest

Thoughts: Stats-wise, this is a no-contest. However, I'll do this with the knowledge that Travis Outlaw will play the majority of the minutes at the 3-spot.

Artest is a player that gets points because he's stronger and more physical than the guy guarding him. He's taller than Roy, stronger than Batum, and wily enough to fool Outlaw. His scoring will be absolutely essential for the Rockets, and by the way...he plays pretty good defense, too.

Batum will need to be what he's been all season for the Blazers: a defensive presence that, once in a while, can knock down an open jumper. If he can play 6-8 solid minutes on Artest, Portland will get the good starts they need to get past Houston.

Advantage: Houston (when Batum is in)

Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Luis Scola

Thoughts: Scola is one of those players that perfectly meshes physical play and savvy wiles. One minute he can be a brutish presence on the boards, aggressively brushing aside opposing big men like deadwood in his quest for the basketball.

The next minute, a post player bumps him while backing down, and he does a flop, drawing a foul on his counterpart. He is a competitive big man, which is always a worrisome trait for the opposition.

Aldridge is a taller power forward that can knock down the open jumper; we've heard that many times before. However, he's developed something resembling a post game, using his impossible length and athleticsm to elevate for baby hooks and flip shots.

LA has also worked on his rebounding, becoming the team leader in offensive rebounding...on a team that leads the league in offensive rebounding, a Blazer tradition if there ever was one.

Advantage: Portland

Center: Joel Pryzbilla vs. Yao Ming

Thoughts: What can be said about Yao that hasn't already been said? He's a gargantuan man that is at least six inches taller than nearly all centers he faces. He's able to hit a fadeaway shot that cannot be defended.

He's worked hard on rebounding, to the point that's he's one-tenth of a percentage point away from the 20-10 zone coveted among big men. Yao has dominated whomever Portland's put against him this season, and that isn't likely to change.

What Joel and his fellow center, Greg Oden, have to do is get their bodies on Yao. Make him feel you bumping and pushing. Grind him down and outhustle him. Tire him out and make Houston go small.

Their task is made slightly easier by Yao's sore foot, but he's still going to be all they can handle. Whether he's more than they can handle is a question that will be answered by the end of the series.

Advantage: Houston

The Benches:

Houston's bench can be described in one word: hustle. They outwork you, they outgrind you, they defend you very well. Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry are the main guys off the bench, and Von Wafer provides instant scoring for a unit that really doesn't have much of it.

Portland's bench, meanwhile, is all about scoring and offense. From Travis Outlaw's mad range of skills, to Rudy Fenandez's equally mad skill set, to Sergio Rodriguez's improved play, this unit can extend an early lead or erase an opponent's advantage with shocking rapidity.

What compounds Houston's problem is that Nate McMillian either has Roy or Aldridge playing with this unit at all times, though this may change if he uses Channing Frye.

Advantage: Portland

The Coaches: Nate McMillian vs. Rick Adelman

Adelman's name should seem familiar to Portland fans: he's the man that coached the 1990 and '92 NBA Finals teams here. After leaving Portland, he led the Sacramento Kings to heights that franchise hasn't seen much of before or hasn't seen since.

Now with the Rockets, Adelman has seen his share of disappointment with this team, but if they can all just stay healthy, they'll get to where he wants them to go.

McMillian, meanwhile, is a rising star in the coaching profession. After returning from the Olympics after Team USA's successful gold-medal run there, he took the youthful Blazers to new heights, winning 54 games and securing the fourth seed in the playoffs just a year after missing them altogether.

While he hasn't seen nearly as much playoff action as a coach as Adelman, Nate has played on many playoff teams, including the 1996 Seattle Sonics team that made the Finals.

This should be a good coaching matchup, a chess match between two men that truly understand big-time basketball.

Advantage: Even

Prediction: God, I really don't know. These teams are matched up so well that it will take unforeseen quirks of fate to determine a winner. Intangibles will have to be the deciding factor, and I know Portland's full of them, despite being a very young team.

I know Houston has failed very often in the postseason, but they have the toughness of Artest and their bench to help a sore Yao. Tracy McGrady isn't around to blow another chance at advancing, but that doesn't mean Houston wouldn't want him around.

What will be the deciding factor is...us.

Literally, we the fans. Home-court advantage is huge for anyone, but for the Trail Blazers it will be the elixir that rejuvenates them when they're tired, spurs them on in close games, and raises their confidence level to the point that they feel that they can beat anyone.

Portland will win in seven games, but it will be by a whisker and a hair.

GO BLAZERS!!!

Random NBA Ravings: "Playoffs!? Do(n't) Talk About Playoffs! Playoffs!?"

Jared Wright — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:01:19 -0400

Well NBA fans, it's that time of year again. It's time to put aside all the taunting, all the smack talk, all the posturing and preening before the cameras. It's time to leave the regular season behind...

And begin the playoffs.

Despite the fact that the majority of teams in the NBA make it to the playoffs (16 playoff teams, 14 lottery teams), the postseason always has some juicy storylines and upset bids.

The talent levels in both conferences are so high, most pairings are pretty much dead-even in terms of player skill. It will take the indeterminable qualities, qualities that make a champion, to sort out who walks away with that heavy-looking hunk of gold.

I've sorted the match-ups, along with stats, analysis and predictions, in seeding order (1-8, then 4-5, etc.). I'll start with the Western Conference, then do the Eastern Conference.

Western Conference

1 Los Angeles vs. 8 Utah

Lakers Starters: PG Derek Fisher (9.9 PPG, 3.2 APG), SG Kobe Bryant (26.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.4 APG), SF Luke Walton (5 PPG, 2.8 RPG), PF Pau Gasol (18.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG), C Andrew Bynum (14.3 PPG, 8 RPG) Key Bench Players: Lamar Odom, Jordan Farmar, Trevor Ariza

Jazz Starters: PG Deron Williams (19.4 PPG, 10.7 APG), SG Ronnie Brewer (13.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG), SF C.J. Miles (9.1 PPG, 2.3 RPG), PF Carlos Boozer (16.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG), C Mehmet Okur (17 PPG, 7.7 RPG) Key Bench Players: Paul Millsap, Andrei Kirilenko, Kyle Korver

The Skinny: At the start of the season, many pundits around the NBA were hailing the Jazz as a top team in the West, a team easily capable of being a top-three team. A slew of key injuries, a late-season losing streak, and the insurgence of the Denver Nuggets and the Portland Trail Blazers all combined to drop Utah into the dreaded 8-spot, and a date with Los Angeles.

The Lakers have Andrew Bynum back, which means that unless another key person gets hurt, they have no excuse should they fail to get to the Finals. His injury last year was the reason the Lakers gave for their lackluster performance against Boston last year. Now, it's finally time to put that theory to the test.

Prediction: Utah is too good to suffer a sweep. I think they'll steal one in Salt Lake City, but the Lake Show will roll on in five.

4 Portland vs. 5 Houston

Trail Blazers Starters: PG Steve Blake (11 PPG, 5 APG), SG Brandon Roy (22.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.1 APG), SF Nicolas Batum (5.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (18.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), C Joel Pryzbilla (5.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG) Key Bench Players: Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Greg Oden

Rockets Starters: PG Aaron Brooks (11.2 PPG, 3 APG), SG Shane Battier (7.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG), SF Ron Artest (17.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG), PF Luis Scola (12.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG), C Yao Ming (19.7 PPG, 9.9 PPG, 1.95 BPG) Key Bench Players: Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry, Von Wafer

The Skinny: The games these teams played during the season were decided by the benches. A casual observer would think that Houston would be at a disadvantage, but they used their hustle and defensive pressure to frustrate not only Portland's deadly bench scorers, but even Roy. Yao also tore into the Blazers with impunity.

If the Rockets can out-hustle the Blazers, they will win the series. If the Blazers can knock down open shots and limit Yao's scoring, Portland will take it down. Either way, it will be very close.

Prediction: This series is too close to call, honestly, but I'll have to try, won't I? Home-court advantage could be huge for the Blazers, winners of 34 contests in the Rose Garden. It's why they'll beat Houston in seven games.

3 San Antonio vs. 6 Dallas

Spurs Starters: PG Tony Parker (22 PPG, 6.9 APG), SG Roger Mason (11.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG), SF Michael Finley (9.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG), PF Tim Duncan (19.3 PPG, 10.7 RPG), C Matt Bonner (8.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG) Key Bench Players: George Hill, Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen

Mavericks Starters: PG Jason Kidd (9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 8.7 APG), SG Josh Howard (18 PPG, 5.1 RPG), SF Antoine Wright (7.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG), PF Dirk Nowitzki (25.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG), C Erick Dampier (5.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG) Key Bench Players: Jason Terry, JJ Barea, Brandon Bass

The Skinny: If you look at the last few weeks, Dallas clearly has more momentum. They were able to fight out of the Eighth Seed of Death, capitalizing on (and contributing to) the fall of the Hornets and Jazz, and they seized the sixth seed yesterday by coming from behind and beating Houston.

The Spurs, meanwhile, haven't looked so hot. Being embarrassed by Portland on their home floor was nothing compared to the loss of Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan's sore knee has limited his effectiveness.

If it weren't for their improbable comeback from a five-point deficit with 45 seconds to go against New Orleans, San Antonio wouldn't be playing at home this weekend.

Prediction: Unfortunately for Dallas, I look long-term. Though the point guard and coach are different, the core of the Maverick squad is still the same as it was in the past few years.

This is a team that makes mistakes when the chips are down...and Timmy and Gregg Popovich have made Hall of Fame careers out of capitalizing on such mistakes. Spurs in six.

2 Denver vs. 7 New Orleans

Nuggets Starters: PG Chauncey Billups (17.9 PPG, 6.4 APG), SG Dahntay Jones (5.4 PPG, 2.1 RPG), SF Carmelo Anthony (22.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG), PF Kenyon Martin (11.7 PPG, 6 RPG), C Nene (14.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG) Key Bench Players: J.R. Smith, Linas Kleiza, Chris Andersen

Hornets Starters: PG Chris Paul (22.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 11 APG, 2.77 SPG), SG Rasual Butler (11.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG), SF Peja Stojakovic (13.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG), PF David West (21 PPG, 8.5 RPG), C Tyson Chandler (8.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG) Key Bench Players: James Posey, Hilton Armstrong, Julian Wright

The Skinny: The Nuggets are a hard team to figure out because they are chock-full of streak shooters and weird characters. Smith lights up a bad team in Sacramento for 45, then goes to Portland and throws up brick after brick. Anthony shoots 18% (!!!) last night in the face of heavy defensive pressure.

Andersen (aptly named the "Birdman") stuffs a shot attempt and takes the time to sneer at the Blazer bench...while his team plays shorthanded on offense, turns the ball over, and he proceeds to look idiotic when Sergio Rodriguez pump-fakes him into the first row.

New Orleans, meanwhile, is easier to get a handle on. Chris Paul's stellar play, David West's 21 and 8 a night, and the solid supporting cast make them a definite threat. Momentum isn't on the Hornets' side, but Denver hasn't been good against playoff teams either.

Prediction: Billups has been an enormous help for Denver, but Paul is better than him, and Chauncey's mates can't be relied upon to deliver for four games. While my head tells me to say Rich Creamies in six, my gut says to take the Hornets in six instead. I'll go with my gut.

All you Denver fans may now proceed to douse me with Haterade.

Eastern Conference

1 Cleveland vs. 8 Detroit

Cavaliers Starters: PG Mo Williams (17.8 PPG, 4.1 APG), SG Delonte West (11.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG), SF LeBron James (28.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.2 APG), PF Anderson Varejao (8.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG), C Zydrunas Ilgauskas (12.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG) Key Bench Players: Daniel Gibson, Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak

Pistons Starters: PG Rodney Stuckey (13.4 PPG, 4.9 APG), SG Richard Hamilton (18.3 PPG, 4.4 APG), SF Tayshaun Prince (14.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG), PF Rasheed Wallace (12 PPG, 7.4 RPG), C Antonio McDyess (9.6 PPG, 9.8 RPG) Key Bench Players: Will Bynum, Jason Maxiell, Arron Afflalo

The Skinny: Question: how many guys lead their team in scoring, rebounding, and assists? If you said one, you'd be correct. If you said LeBron James, you'd also be correct.

His insane set of skills mesh with the rugged front line, dead-eye shooters on the wing, and the shotgun-riding Williams to create a juggernaut that's lost only twice all year at home...and they have home-court throughout the entire playoffs.

The Pistons are in the process of tearing the team down and starting over. Joe Dumars may deny it, but it's written all over this team. Since they traded away the soul of the Pistons (Chauncey Billups), it's been practically preordained that Detroit is in blow-up mode. Here's hoping they draft well and get some good pieces to go along with their other young talent.

Prediction: We'll keep it short and sweet. Cavs sweep.

4 Atlanta vs. 5 Miami

Hawks Starters: PG Mike Bibby (14.9 PPG, 5 APG), SG Marvin Williams (13.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG), SF Joe Johnson (21.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.8 APG), PF Josh Smith (15,6 PPG, 7.2 RPG), C Al Horford (11.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG) Key Bench Players: Ronald Murray, Maurice Evans, Zaza Pachulia

Heat Starters: PG Mario Chalmers (10 PPG, 4.9 APG), SG Dwyane Wade (30.2 PPG, 5 RPG, 7.5 APG), SF Jamario Moon (7.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG), PF Udonis Haslem (10.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG), C Jermaine O'Neal (13 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2 BPG) Key Bench Players: Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook, Luther Head

The Skinny: This is one series to watch closely. Atlanta made themselves known to basketball fans everywhere by taking the vaunted Celtics to seven last season, despite being a 35-win team that year. They have youth, athleticism, and a big-time player in Joe Johnson.

The Heat have these things too, except in different ways. Beasley has come off the bench recently, and imagining him at the forefront of the Miami second unit is slightly intimidating. They've been flying under the radar this season, masked by the Cleveland-Boston-Orlando hubbub. Coach Erik Spolstra should use this to his advantage, and fire up his squad.

He'll need to, because Atlanta's proven to be an excellent playoff home team, and they have advantage.

Prediction: I like the Hawks. I really do. It's just unfortunate they're facing a highly skilled, highly motivated, and extremely angry Dwyane Wade. He'll prove that he's the worthy MVP by plowing his way through the Atlanta defense. I take Miami in six games.

3 Orlando vs. 6 Philadelphia

Magic Starters: PG Rafer Alston (12 PPG, 5.1 APG), SG Courtney Lee (8.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG), SF Hedo Turkoglu (16.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.9 APG), PF Rashard Lewis (17.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG), C Dwight Howard (20.6 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 2.92 BPG) Key Bench Players: Mickael Pietrus, Anthony Johnson, Tony Battie

Sixers Starters: PG Andre Miller (16.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.5 APG), SG Willie Green (8.5 PPG, 1.6 RPG), SF Andre Iguodala (18.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.3 APG), PF Thaddeus Young (15.3 PPG, 5 RPG), C Samuel Dalembert (6.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG) Key Bench Players: Lou Williams, Marreese Speights, Reggie Evans

The Skinny: Orlando has to feel disappointed that despite the fact that Kevin Garnett hadn't played significant minutes in some time, they were unable to secure the second seed. They've been able to survive the Jameer Nelson injury by acquiring Alston, a cagey veteran capable of leading a playoff team.

Offensively, they are a tough cover for any team, let alone a small team like Philadelphia.

The Sixers are a team filled with athletes and active bodies. They are a team that forces many turnovers, and relies on those turnovers and transition baskets to provide its points. They also are a team without a good shooter, and in the absence of Elton Brand, they've had to get creative to find ways to win.

Prediction: The Sixers have no one that comes close to matching Howard's size, and he'll eat Dalembert alive. Coupled with a barrage of outside shooting, it will be enough to carry Orlando to a series sweep of Philly.

2 Boston vs. 7 Chicago

Celtics Starters: PG Rajon Rondo (11.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 8.2 APG), SG Ray Allen (18.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG), SF Paul Pierce (20.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG), PF Kevin Garnett (15.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG), C Kendrick Perkins (8.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.97 BPG) Key Bench Players: Eddie House, Tony Allen, Glen Davis

Bulls Starters: PG Derrick Rose (16.8 PPG, 6.3 APG), SG Ben Gordon (20.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), SF John Salmons (18.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG), PF Tyrus Thomas (10.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.91 BPG), C Joakim Noah (6.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG) Key Bench Players: Brad Miller, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng

The Skinny: The Garnett Knee Saga has been running nonstop in Boston since he got hurt playing at Utah. While there's no doubt that the Celtics' chances for a repeat depend on him, the other parts of the Big Three, Pierce and Ray Allen, have been carrying the load. This has allowed Boston to secure the second seed and give Garnett the rest he needed.

Unfortunately, Chicago is the sort of team that can give them trouble. A trade had brought in John Salmons, an underrated scorer at the 3 position, and Brad Miller from Sacramento a couple months ago, and coupled with the play of Derrick Rose, it has lifted the Bulls to the playoffs.

Rose is explosive and adept at both creating for his teammates and for himself, and Chicago will need the rookie to step up big-time if they want to win this series...a prospect that isn't so far-fetched.

Prediction: I'm not saying that the Bulls will win, but if Garnett isn't producing at his normal levels, they'll push the C's to seven. If Garnett somehow comes back good as new, I'll make it Celtics in five.

Seven seems the safer bet, since he hasn't played much in so long.

Random Ravings: The Top 10 NBA Finals Matchups I'd Like To See

Jared Wright — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 07:48:31 -0400

I was working at the mall, doing my usual thing, when my thoughts drifted to the NBA. I went over the 15 teams that had already qualified (as of this date, the final playoff spot in the East is still open), and thought about their good and bad qualities; specifically, what it would be like to see them matched against certain teams.

So, being the pot-stirrer that I am, I thought I'd list my 10 most appealing (at least to me) NBA Finals match-ups, in descending order (10 to one).

10. Los Angeles vs. Orlando

Am I the only one who dreams of seeing Andrew Bynum and Dwight Howard scrapping for rebounds, elevating for thunderous blocks, and jamming in each other's grills?

Just because of these two young big men, this pairing would appeal to me. And you wanna know the best part? This one actually has a chance of happening.

9. Denver vs. Miami

Think about this one for a second. Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade are not only bona fide superstars, but they're a part of the dynamic draft class that also produced LeBron James and Chris Bosh.

Their supporting casts (Chauncey Billups, JR Smith and Nene for the Nuggets, Michael Beasley, Jermaine O'Neal and Mario Chalmers for the Heat) are capable of winning games without premier nights from their respective studs.

This would be a very interesting matchup, but it would not be likely because of the talent out East; the Heat aren't good enough yet.

8. San Antonio vs. Boston

I could see the NBA marketing people right now, dropping a collective brick if this one were to materialize. Sure, the Celtics are sexy marketing-wise, but Kevin Garnett's knee is achy and other than Rajon Rondo, the Celtic's main men are starting to see the end of the tunnel.

The Spurs' Tim Duncan is hurting as much as Garnett, and Manu Ginobili is done for the year. What will they call this one, "The Battle of the Creaky Old Guys?"

Just to see what will happen if Garnett and Duncan can't go full-tilt, SA/Beantown would be cool with me.

7. Portland vs. Philadelphia

Seeing my avatar, you really can't blame me for mentioning the Blazers. This pairing would pit the top young team in the West against the top young team in the East.

It's a shame that the 'Sixers aren't at full strength, because Elton Brand vs. LaMarcus Aldridge would be a great power forward match-up, with Andre Iguodala/Brandon Roy being just as good.

6. Denver vs. Cleveland

Denver vs. Miami was only ninth because their two stars played different positions. This one is No. 6 because not only do their main men play the same position, but those two men are LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.

Seeing that match-up in the Finals would be both enjoyable and irritating...enjoyable to watch James play defense on Anthony, and irritating to watch Anthony pretend to play defense on James.

This one also has a chance of happening, although the Rich Creamies would likely need to beat the team that pasted them just a few days ago.

5. Portland vs. Orlando

These two are very similar when you look at how they do their business. They both rebound the ball very well. They both have steady veteran point guards. They both are accurate beyond the three-point arc. Both are run by no-nonsense, no-frills coaches.

While this match-up would be a great series, the Blazers need to cook for a couple years, and the Magic have the small problems of LeBron James and the Boston Celtics to overcome.

4. New Orleans vs. Boston

Whenever I see the Hornets these days, I'm constantly reminded of the fact that if Chris Paul had any real help at the 2 and 3 positions besides James Posey, he'd be unstoppable.

Think about a Joe Johnson or a Brandon Roy on that team for a moment, and quake in your space boots.

Boston has Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, and that'll be the difference in this match-up of present and future.

3. Houston vs. Orlando

If Tracy McGrady were healthy, this would be even more interesting to me. As it is, Yao Ming and Dwight Howard going at it for all the marbles is good enough.

As two former No. 1 overall draft picks, they'd be able to say they led their teams to the Finals, which is what you expect from any top draft pick (at least, a PROPER top pick...yes, I'm looking at you, Kwame Brown).

2. Los Angeles vs. Cleveland

"Kobe. LeBron. You've seen them battle over the MVP. Now see them lead their teams in the fight for the ultimate prize!" This pairing will get so hyped-up, it'll feel like being in the middle of a WrestleMania promotion; in fact, it already does.

It doesn't hurt the hype machine when you consider that most prognosticators are predicting this match-up as the eventual Finals.

1. Los Angeles vs. Boston

Putting my personal dislike for the Lakers aside for a bit, I do appreciate history. I do realize that these two teams have taken turns destroying teams and winning titles throughout the Association's existence.

I was as excited as anyone when these two behemoths of organized sport collided over the greatest prize in their league last year.

It was admittedly anti-climatic when the Celtics, who were clearly the superior team that year, pounded the Lakers.

However, if they meet this year, it hopefully will see both teams at full strength and motivation. It would be a much closer contest if that were to happen.

As a true basketball fan and a proponent of fair play, it is my fervent wish that we get to see the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics clash once again, for it never, ever, gets old.

The (Bleepin') Dime: Dwight Howard's Beastliness, Trail Blazing, and More

Jared Wright — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 00:00:16 -0500

Welcome to the Dime, boys and girls!

I know the first one was quite long, with the review of all 15 Western teams. The East will be done at the end of the week; for now, we'll use my usual format.

Dime No. 1

OK, we all knew Dwight Howard was a man among men. A giant. A beast. It's no secret that the Orlando Magic's chances of taking down its first-ever NBA championship rest squarely on those enormous shoulders.

Still, anyone that not only puts up a 20-20 performance, but does it consistently and in such dominating fashion, deserves a mention from everybody. Oh, by the way: he's just 23. *cue the shivers*

Dime No.2

Listening to the scuttlebutt of the last year or so, I gathered that the Portland Trail Blazers needed a point guard. Sure, they have Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, a rapidly improving Greg Oden (seven NBA double doubles from any 20-year-old is impressive, at least to me), and a great bench, but people were saying, "Who's playing point guard?"

Steve Blake is the unsung hero of this group. He's averaging career highs in three-point percentage, overall threes made, and points. Blake also hit a game-winning three at Toronto...with coach Nate McMillian screaming for a timeout.

The Blazers don't need a star guard. They're just fine and dandy with Steve Blake, thank you.

Dime No. 3

Quick question: who lit a fire under the britches of the Indiana Pacers? They may be just 7-13, but they've been playing at a whole other level lately. Jim O'Brien's squad hasn't thrown in the towel, to their utmost credit. Some NBA players are notoriously egocentric and quit on the team when things get rocky. Not these guys.

The Pacers have been brutalized by a massively difficult schedule, including a game against Detroit, two apiece against Orlando and Cleveland, that Lakers game that provided perhaps the play of the year, and three—yes, three—games against the Boston Celtics. Here's hoping the easier schedule ahead produces a better record.

Dime No. 4

When the New Jersey Nets traded away Richard Jefferson and Jason Kidd, the impression was that this was the start of a blowing-up process, and that the Nets brass would start rebuilding around Devin Harris. Apparently, they didn't get the memo.

Harris is making the Mavericks kick themselves for trading him. He's had games where he looked like one of the five best points in the league—a bit premature, but he'll get there if he continues playing like this.

He leads the Nets with 24.4 PPG and 6.1 APG, and he will get better when Jersey starts surrounding him with more talent. More importantly, the Nets are 11-8 and in solid position through the early part of the season.

Dime No. 5

Rejoice, Timberwolves fans: Kevin McHale looks to be on his way out of the organization. It was reported today that Minnesota made Randy Whitman the fourth head coaching casualty of the 2008-09 season, and owner Glen Taylor asked McHale to step in and coach the roster he haphazardly assembled...while asking him to surrender his VP of personnel powers.

Sensing perhaps that this was the only shot he had left in Minny, McHale accepted. If the team performs like the doormat they appear to be, McHale looks to be out of a job by the end of the year.

Dime No. 6

Speaking of coaching jobs, there seems to be a disturbing trend developing not just in the NBA, but in all sports: the firing of a coach or manager in midseason. Though I don't agree with some firings (Sam Mitchell, Eddie Jordan, and Ned Yost spring to my mind), I find that other firings are justified whenever the interest of the team is lost, or if they're not sufficiently prepared.

While I will forever be of the opinion that firings should be strictly end-of-season affairs, I totally understand whenever an owner or GM decides to drop the hammer on the coach—after all, he's the easiest guy to get rid of.

Dime No. 7

It really warms the cockles of my heart to see Dwayne Wade do well, especially after the hellish year he had last year. The injuries and losses were mounting, Shaquille O'Neal had been dealt, and people were starting to doubt Wade a little. As Flash has proved time and again this season, it's wise to place your doubt elsewhere, chaps and lasses.

D-Wade has averaged 33 points per for the last five games, including a 41-point explosion against the Charlotte Bobcats. His 29.5 PPG for the season is tops by a healthy three point margin over the King himself, LeBron James. Wade will obviously do whatever he can to redeem both himself and the Miami Heat this season.

Dime 8

The Eastern Conference is vastly improved compared to seasons past. While there were an about equal number of NBA champs from East and West in the 2000s, the Eastern finalists routinely had much weaker competition than their Western counterparts. Last year, Atlanta, winners of 37 games, earned the eighth playoff spot—by comparison, Portland had an even 41-41 record...good for 10th in the Western Conference.

The feeling is that we won't see an under-.500 team in either conference this year. The West is the usual cutthroat dogfight, with nine teams above .500 and the other six at least seven games below the average. The East is more spread-out, with 11 teams at least three games under .500, and in striking distance this early in the season.

It's looking like the quality of basketball out East is finally catching up to the West...which is great news for basketball in general, as the national media will unceasingly bleat.

Dimes No. 9 and 10 will need to be skipped: I've got work tomorrow.

Join us next time as we take a long look East.

Until then, may the Celtics not trample your team when they play.

The (First) Dime: Quarterly Thoughts on the NBA's Best...er, West

Jared Wright — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 04:42:14 -0500

Welcome to the Dime, everybody!

My name’s Jared Wright. I’m a self-described and highly-opinionated sports fanatic…and semi-regular armchair quarterback.

I hope to have this weekly article every Thursday or Friday (depending on the fascistic work schedule of my boss), and I hope you all enjoy it.

Usually I’d point out 10 things of interest around the NBA (winter) or MLB (summer), what I call cents, but I thought I’d instead provide a quarterly analysis of all 30 NBA teams, with stats, what's next on the schedule, and general thoughts on the teams.

Since this article would be much too long if I did all the NBA in one night, I decided to split them by conference, which is more streamlined for you and less midnight-oil burning for me. Good times all around!

The Western Conference is the subject for this week. For those out East, never fear; your teams are coming next week. I’ve listed the teams by their current rank by record, with the Lakers first and the hapless Thunder where they belong—last.

(It should be noted that all stats and records are as of December 4, 2008)

So, without further ado and rambling…

Los Angeles Lakers (15-2, first in the Pacific Division)

Top Scorer: Kobe Bryant, 25.1 PPG (led team in 14 games)

Top Rebounder: Pau Gasol, 9.2 RPG

Top Assists Man: Bryant, 4.1 APG

The skinny: All summer long, people have been saying that this team has the potential to win it all, with an experienced Kobe finally backed by legitimate helpers not named Shaq.

Bryant isn’t playing as many minutes as he did in the old I-gotta-score-40-every-night days, but he’s still getting his points in typical Kobe fashion—every way he can. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum give the Lakers two pieces of seven-foot timber in the lane, and they have a solid bench too.

Upcoming schedule: The Lake Show hasn’t been hitting the road much lately, and that trend will continue with five of their next seven at Staples. After that, they go on a four-game road trip before their much-anticipated throw-down with the Celtics on Christmas Day.

Portland Trail Blazers (14-6, first in the Northwest Division)

Top Scorer: Brandon Roy, 21.1 PPG (led team in 14 games)

Top Rebounder: Joel Pryzbilla, 8.0 RPG

Top Assists Man: Roy, 5.3 APG

The skinny: No one in Portland expected this. The Blazers had arguably the most difficult start to their season in the entire NBA. Their first five games were against teams that won 50 or more games last season and two-thirds of their first 24 games on the road.

Yet, behind the steady play of Brandon Roy, and the solid support of their deep bench, they’ve attained the second-best record in the West at this early stage of the season.

Upcoming schedule: Portland is in the midst of a five-game Eastern swing, but afterwards they get 11 of 14 at the Rose Garden, where they haven’t been beaten in seven games.

Denver Nuggets (13-7, second in the Northwest)

Top Scorer: Carmelo Anthony, 19.8 PPG (led team in seven games)

Top Rebounder: Anthony, 8.1 RPG

Top Assists Man: Chauncey Billups, 7.0 APG

The skinny: I remember several analysts on ESPN saying what a great trade for both teams it was when the Nuggets dealt Allen Iverson to the Detroit Pistons for Chauncey Billups. This trade will be remembered much more fondly in Denver than in Detroit, I think—especially considering the tear these guys have gone on since then.

Before the season, with the departure of Marcus Camby, I doubted whether the Nuggets could make the playoffs. With Billups, not only will they make the playoffs, but they’ll contend for the Northwest title and make some serious noise in the postseason.

Upcoming schedule: Denver has a pretty even split between home and road games for December. They play a home-and-home, back-to-back with Portland December 22-23—definitely ones to watch.

Houston Rockets (12-7, first in the Southwest Division)

Top Scorer: Yao Ming, 18.2 PPG (led team in seven games)

Top Rebounder: Yao, 9.3 RPG

Top Assists Man: Rafer Alston, 5.0 APG

The skinny: The Rockets haven’t been totally healthy. I know—understatement of the year, right? Pretty much everyone that contributes to this team has had some sort of injury, with Tracy McGrady missing large chunks of time.

However, Rick Adelman is holding these guys together, winning with a good bench and the steady play of Yao Ming and Ron Artest. Adelman should be a Coach of the Year candidate simply for winning 12 of 19 with this collection of glass jaws and creaky joints.

Upcoming schedule: After a nearly-even seven-game stretch, they start a four-game roadie, and then have a three-game homestand. After that, they leave Houston again, this time for five on the road. Not many games of note—they do get Atlanta and New Orleans at home, but they travel to Cleveland on December 23.

Utah Jazz (12-8, third in the Northwest)

Top Scorer: Carlos Boozer, 20.5 PPG (led team in nine games)

Top Rebounder: Boozer, 11.7 RPG

Top Assists Man: Deron Williams, 10.1 APG

The skinny: There can’t be enough great things said about Jerry Sloan. Without his stud point guard (Deron Williams) for much of the season, he’s been able to patch together a successful lineup night in and night out, and stay competitive in the increasingly-tough Northwest.

Now with Williams back, the Jazz look to reassert themselves in the West, and keep some distance between themselves and Phoenix and the other Southwest teams for playoff positioning.

Upcoming schedule: The Jazz get no immediate favors. After Utah plays their next three games, they host Portland and Orlando, and then go on a five-game Eastern road trip, beginning at Boston.

Phoenix Suns (11-9, second in the Pacific)

Top Scorer: Amare Stoudemire, 22.4 PPG (led team in 10 games)

Top Rebounder: Shaquille O’Neal, 8.3 RPG

Top Assists Man: Steve Nash, 8.2 APG

The skinny: Under Mike D’Antoni, the Suns were high-flyin’, stylin’-and-profilin’, runnin’-and-gunnin’ machines—and Amare Stoudemire wants that all back. Phoenix’s main man has repeatedly whined about wanting to be the main man again. This while Steve Nash is shivering from the flu, Shaq is resting his aging bones, and the Suns are losers of four straight.

Memo to Amare: stop your bellyaching, trust Terry Porter and buy into his system. It might not get you a championship—but then again, your old coach’s run-and-gun gimmicks didn’t either.

Upcoming schedule: Phoenix gets served a helping heap of home cooking, with six of their next eight and 10 of 13 at home. They play Utah, the Lakers, and Orlando within the next eight days.

New Orleans Hornets (10-6, second in the Southwest)

Top Scorer: Chris Paul, 20.6 PPG (led team in six games)

Top Rebounder: Tyson Chandler, 8.0 RPG

Top Assists Man: Paul, 11.8 APG

The skinny: If there’s one team in the NBA that has had a pretty solid, pedestrian start, it’s New Orleans. The Hornets are right in the thick of it, currently led by the best point guard in the NBA. Chris Paul and his trusty mates (David West, Tyson Chandler, and James Posey) are always dangerous, very exciting to watch, and have had a taste of playoff success.

The little birds online have been talking about these guys potentially making a run at the Finals—somewhat premature I think, but he who doubts CP3 would do better to place his doubt elsewhere.

Upcoming schedule: After two games at home against cupcakes, they get a couple of three-game roadies sandwiching a three-game home stretch, beginning with Boston. N’awlins also plays the Lakers, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando in that span.

Dallas Mavericks (10-8, tied for third in the Southwest)

Top Scorer: Dirk Nowitzki, 25.1 PPG (led team in 10 games)

Top Rebounder: Nowitzki, 8.9 RPG

Top Assists Man: Jason Kidd, 8.5 APG

The skinny: I dare you to find a hotter team than Dallas right now not named L.A. or Boston. After dropping seven of their first nine, the Mavs have since won eight of their last nine games.

Dirk Nowitzki dropped 39 points on the Suns in securing their latest win, which puts them right in the thick of things in the West. If they want to keep this momentum going through the New Year, Jason Terry will need to continue providing scoring support.

Upcoming schedule: Dallas is currently homestanding for seven games. After that, they leave for a three-game Eastern trip before playing Memphis at American Airlines Center. They play the Trail Blazers on Christmas Day.

San Antonio Spurs (10-8, tied for third in the Southwest)

Top Scorer: Tony Parker, 23.0 PPG (led team in four games)

Top Rebounder: Tim Duncan, 10.3 RPG

Top Assists Man: Parker, 6.2 APG

The skinny: It’s safe to say these old fogies had a rough start. Without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker for lengths of time, the Spurs have been far from extraordinary.

However, all San Antonio has to do is hang around and get healthy until the fast starts of teams like Portland and Denver sputter and even out, then go on their own run—usually during the Rodeo Road Trip. It isn’t how you start, chaps and chicks, it’s how you finish.

Upcoming schedule: The Spurs have an even mix of road and home games. Looking at the schedule, no single game really jumped out at me—meaning San Antonio should have a good month.

Golden State Warriors (5-13, third in the Pacific)

Top Scorer: Jamal Crawford, 20.3 PPG (most with NYK)

Top Rebounder: Andris Biedrins, 12.4 RPG

Top Assists Man: Stephen Jackson, 6.6 APG

The skinny: Golden State should never have let Baron Davis go. Sure, the former guard for the Warriors got hurt quite a bit, but when he was around, he was the sole reason the Warriors went on those great runs. In short, he made them relevant.

Now with Davis languishing playing for L.A.’s stepchild team, the Warriors again have slipped into their ancestral losing ways, dropping seven straight games. No amount of Don Nelson’s magic can turn their season around, I’m afraid, even though Golden State gave him a nice new contract.

Upcoming schedule: It doesn’t get any easier for the Warriors—10 of their next 14 are on the road, including games against Atlanta, Houston, the Lakers, Denver, and Orlando. Oh yeah—Boston comes calling, too.

Minnesota Timberwolves (Record: 4-13, fourth in the Northwest)

Top Scorer: Al Jefferson, 21.2 PPG (led team in 10 games)

Top Rebounder: Jefferson, 10.1 RPG

Top Assists Man: Randy Foye, 5.7 APG

The skinny: One positive for the T’Wolves—Al Jefferson is a total beast. Anyone that averages a double-double per game is worth building a team around.

Unfortunately, Kevin McHale hasn’t done much building lately—Minnesota will regret not keeping Brandon Roy for quite a while to come…at least, if I have anything to say about it.

With Corey Brewer out for the year and several other youngsters still learning the game, this will continue to be a learning year for Randy Whitman’s crew.

Upcoming schedule: Minnesota’s schedule is no place to be right now—after playing New Jersey and the Clippers, their next opponents in order are: Utah, at Denver, San Antonio, at Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento, Cleveland, Houston, and a second time against the Spurs. It’s hard to see the Wolves making much progress against that lineup.

Sacramento Kings (5-15, fourth in the Pacific)

Top Scorer: Kevin Martin, 22.4 PPG (led team in five games)

Top Rebounder: Brad Miller, 8.0 RPG

Top Assists Man: Beno Udrih, 5.3 APG

The skinny: Before the season started, there weren’t many people that gave the Kings a chance in the deeper-than-deep Western Conference. Most thought the Kings’ lack of overall talent, plus the loss of Ron Artest, would mean a decline in performance.

But with Kevin Martin hurt for much of the year, they’ve been downright stinky. They’ve lost their last seven games, and have been consistently overmatched.

Reggie Theus’ job is in constant danger—it’s only a matter of time before the Maloof brothers, the guys that own the Kings, give Reggie the axe—and much of this isn’t even Theus’ fault.

Upcoming schedule: After a five-game stretch that includes a home-and-home against the Lakers, Sacramento hits the road to play Portland, Houston, New Orleans and San Antonio. This isn’t going to help with Theus’ job security.

Memphis Grizzlies (4-14, fifth in the Southwest)

Top Scorer: O.J. Mayo, 21.3 PPG (led team in nine games)

Top Rebounder: Marc Gasol, 6.9 RPG

Top Assists Man: Mike Conley Jr., 4.0 APG

The skinny: What people have to remember when discussing the Grizzlies is that they’re very young and raw. The guys above—O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley, along with Rudy Gay—have the makings of a very firm foundation for Memphis.

I’m reminded of the Trail Blazers of a few years back. They had just drafted Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, and were in the process of trading the chaff so they could let the wheat ferment in peace. It’s not the same situation in Memphis, but the message is the same for fans of the Grizz, all eight of you—be patient.

Upcoming schedule: The Grizzlies have seven of their next nine games at home, which should help a young team like theirs. During this stretch, they play New Orleans both at home and on the road, host Houston, and host the Lakers.

Los Angeles Clippers (3-15, fifth in the Pacific)

Top Scorer: Zach Randolph, 21.0 PPG (most w/ NYK)

Top Rebounder: Marcus Camby, 10.5 RPG

Top Assists Man: Baron Davis, 8.1 APG

The skinny: The Los Angeles Clippers have what I like to call “Detroit Lions Syndrome”—no matter what free agent they sign, no matter what touted draft pick they bring in, no matter who their coach is, they always find a way to totally stink up a joint.

Winning seasons for L.A.’s stepchild are as rare as warm weather in Alaska. They have a logjam at both the four and five positions (though Chris Kaman’s injury should ease the pressure there for a bit), they have an okay coach who also is a bad GM (Mike Dunleavy), and they have a prodigal son in Baron Davis, who can’t do for the Clippers what he did for the Warriors.

Maybe if Donald Sterling sold the team to Starbucks, and they shipped them up to Seattle, and renamed them the Seattle SuperSonics—maybe, just maybe, the bad Clipper mojo would end.

Maybe.

Upcoming schedule: The schedule gods are kind to the Stepchildren for a while, as the only tough games during this stretch of seven out of nine on the road are against Portland, Houston and Orlando—and they get the latter two in the Lakers’ building, as well.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2-17, fifth in the Northwest)

Top Scorer: Kevin Durant, 22.3 PPG (led team in 15 games)

Top Rebounder: Robert Swift, 6.3RPG

Top Assists Man: Earl Watson, 5.8 APG

The skinny: Whatever Clay Bennett envisioned after he stole the Sonics and moved them to Oklahoma City; it sure as hell wasn’t this. A 13-game losing streak, a head coach getting fired, and the one-man team of Kevin Durant are all the newly-christened Thunder have to show up for their inaugural campaign so far. I don’t think Seattle is going to miss this bunch.

Fair warning to whoever gets the sad-sack job of coaching this sorry lot—it will be a while before Oklahoma City is competitive, and your boss will have a short leash on you.

Upcoming schedule: Out of the Thunder’s next 16 games, the only ones that can give real cause for worry are roadies at Orlando, Dallas, and San Antonio. Okie City residents will be treated to a real show when LeBron shows up and outscores the whole Thunder team sans Durant.

Whew! Glad that’s over…What!? I have to do the Eastern Conference next week!? Oh well…*sigh*

Till then, may the Thunder never strike you twice (they certainly won’t beat you twice).