Bleacher Report - Articles by Chris Copeland

2009 Southeastern Conference Preview

Chris Copeland — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 15:15:26 -0400

2009-10 SEC Preview

East
1. Florida 12-0 (8-0)
2. Georgia 8-4 (6-2)
3. Tennessee 7-5 (3-5)
4. Kentucky 7-5 (3-5)
5. Vanderbilt 5-7 (2-6)
6. South Carolina 4-8 (2-6)

West
1. Alabama 9-3 (6-2)
2. LSU 9-3 (6-2)
3. Ole Miss 9-3 (5-3)
4. Arkansas 8-4 (4-4)
5. Auburn 7-5 (3-5)
6. Mississippi St 4-8 (1-7)

SEC Title Game
Florida def. Alabama 27-14

Conference Overview
Florida is the consensus number one again this year and should cruise to the East title. The West is a three-team race with Bama, LSU and Ole Miss all in the running.

The slight edge goes to Alabama, not having to play Florida or Georgia and getting LSU at home.

When all is said and done, the SEC could have nine bowl eligible teams.

Bowl Ties
BCS Bowl—Florida
Capital One Bowl—Alabama
Outback Bowl—LSU
Cotton Bowl—Ole Miss
Chick-Fil-A Bowl—Georgia
Music City Bowl—Arkansas
Liberty Bowl—Tennessee
Independence Bowl—Kentucky

2009-10 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

Chris Copeland — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 14:36:12 -0400

2009-10 ACC Preview

Atlantic
1. North Carolina St 9-3 (5-3)
2. Clemson 8-4 (4-4)
3. Wake Forrest 8-4 (4-4)
4. Florida St 7-5 (4-4)
5. Maryland 7-5 (4-4)
6. Boston College 4-8 (1-7)

Coastal
1. Georgia Tech 10-2 (6-2)
2. Virginia Tech 9-3 (5-3)
3. North Carolina 9-3 (5-3)
4. Miami, FL 7-5 (4-4)
5. Virginia 5-7 (3-5)
6. Duke 5-7 (2-6)

ACC Title Game
Georgia Tech def. North Carolina St 27-23

Conference Overview
Both divisions are wide open this year. GT gets Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Clemson at home, so they get the nod over the Hokies and the Tar Heels in the Coastal. It wouldn’t be surprising to see any one in the Atlantic, sans BC, take home the crown. NC State played very well at the end of 2008 and has playmakers back on both sides of the ball. Even without LB Nate Irving, this team could go 7-0 to start the year with some help, which gives them the edge over Clemson, Wake and FSU.

Bowl Ties
BCS Bowl- Georgia Tech
Gator Bowl- Virginia Tech
Chick-fil-A Bowl- North Carolina St
Champs Sports Bowl- North Carolina
Music City Bowl- Clemson
Meineke Car Care Bowl- Wake Forrest
Emerald Bowl- Florida St
EagleBank Bowl- Maryland
GMAC Bowl- Miami, FL

2009-10 Big 12 Conference Preview

Chris Copeland — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 21:38:09 -0400

2009-10 Big 12 Conference Preview

North
1. Nebraska 8-4 (5-3)
2. Kansas 8-4 (4-4)
3. Colorado 7-5 (3-5)
4. Missouri 5-7 (3-5)
5. Kansas St 5-7 (2-6)
6. Iowa St 5-7 (2-6)

South
1. Texas 11-1 (7-1)
2. Oklahoma 10-2 (6-2)
3. Oklahoma St 10-2 (6-2)
4. Baylor 7-5 (4-4)
5. Texas Tech 7-5 (4-4)
6. Texas A&M 5-7 (2-6)

Conference Title Game
Texas def. Nebraska, 35-20

Conference Overview
The Big 12 should come down to Texas and Oklahoma again this year, with the slight edge going to the Horns. Don’t be surprised to see Oklahoma St. right there at the end either. Baylor should be strong enough for a bowl, and expect Missouri and Tech to struggle early as both lose quite a bit on offense.

Bowl Ties
BCS Bowl- Texas
BCS Bowl- Oklahoma
Cotton Bowl- Oklahoma St
Holiday Bowl- Colorado
Gator Bowl- Baylor
Alamo Bowl- Texas Tech

2009-10 Big Ten Conference Preview

Chris Copeland — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:58:04 -0400

2009-10 Big Ten Conference Preview

1. Michigan State 10-2 (6-2)
2. Penn St 10-2 (6-2)
3. Iowa 9-3 (5-3)
4. Ohio St 9-3 (5-3)
5. Illinois 8-4 (4-4)
6. Minnesota 7-5 (4-4)
7. Wisconsin 7-5 (3-5)
8. Northwestern 7-5 (3-5)
9. Michigan 6-6 (3-5)
10. Indiana 5-7 (3-5)
11. Purdue 4-8 (2-6)

Conference Overview
With Ohio St (12 returning starters) and Penn St. (9 returning starters) losing plenty, look for Michigan State to benefit from a weak schedule that excludes Ohio State.

On their schedule, are home games against Penn St., Iowa and Michigan. With these three home games, the Spartans can easily sneak in and win the Big Ten.

On the other end of Michigan, the Wolverines should improve, but with a true freshmen at the helm, its highly unlikely.

The Hoosiers might not be as bad as their record shows, while Wisconsin might not be as good as their record shows.

When all is said and done, the Big Ten might have nine bowl-eligible teams.

Bowl Ties
BCS Bowl- Michigan State
BCS Bowl- Penn St
Capital One Bowl- Ohio St
Outback Bowl- Iowa
Champs Sports Bowl- Illinois
Alamo Bowl- Wisconsin
Insight Bowl- Northwestern
Motor City Bowl- Michigan

2009-10 PAC-10 Conference Preview

Chris Copeland — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 18:48:14 -0400

2009-2010 Pac-10 Conference Preview

1. USC 10-2 (8-1)
2. California 10-2 (7-2)
3. Oregon 9-3 (6-3)
4. Stanford 7-5 (6-3)
5. Oregon St 7-5 (4-5)
6. UCLA 6-6 (4-5)
7. Arizona 6-6 (4-5)
8. Arizona St. 5-7 (3-6)
9. Washington 4-8 (3-6)
10. Washington St. 2-10 (0-9)

Conference Overview

If there was a year to overtake USC as Pac-10 champs, this would be it. USC has to go to Cal and Oregon and could come away 0-2 in those games.

Stanford looks to improve with 15 returning starters and a solid QB prospect in Andrew Luck. Expect Oregon St. (9 starters returning) and Arizona (14 starters returning) to take a few steps back.

Washington should avoid the cellar if Locker can stay healthy and Wazzu will struggle mightily once again.

Bowl Ties
BCS Game- USC
Holiday Bowl- California
Sun Bowl- Oregon
Emerald Bowl- Stanford
Las Vegas Bowl- Oregon State
Poinsettia Bowl- UCLA

2009-10 Big East Conference Football Preview

Chris Copeland — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 18:29:31 -0400

2009-2010 Big East Conference Preview

1. Cincinnati 9-3 (6-1)
2. West Virginia 8-4 (5-2)
3. Rutgers 8-4 (4-3)
4. South Florida 7-5 (4-3)
5. UCONN 5-7 (4-3)
6. Pittsburgh 6-6 (3-4)
7. Louisville 5-7 (2-5)
8. Syracuse 3-9 (0-7)

Conference Overview
Even though Cincinnati lost almost every starter on the defensive side of the ball, the Bearcats have the most explosive offense in the Big East. That's enough to give them the edge. WVU, Rutgers, and UCONN will all be implementing new QBs, though Jarrett Brown of WVU isn’t really inexperienced. If he or the new gunslinger at Rutgers steps up, the Big East race will get very interesting come early December.

Bowl Ties
BCS Game- Cincinnati
Gator Bowl- West Virginia
Meineke Bowl- Rutgers
Papajohns.com Bowl- South Florida
International Bowl- UCONN
St. Petersburg Bowl- Pittsburgh

Bubble Watch March 6

Chris Copeland — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:47:42 -0500

NCAA 2009 Bubble Watch

Chris’ anticipated Bubble Watch is back!! Last year, Chris predicted 64 of the 65 teams on Selection Sunday, only having Villanova out and Arizona State in. He also predicted 26 seeds exactly and another 30 teams within one line of their actual seed. That’s 56 of the 65 teams in the 2008 tournament!!

His Bubble Watch incorporates if the season ended today. The next update will be on Sunday, March 8.

ACC (7)

Lock: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson

Good Shape: BC, Maryland

Need Help: Virginia Tech

With the bubble so weak, Maryland is in the tournament as of today. They cannot afford to lose at Virginia to close the regular season. VT needs a win at Florida State to keep hope alive.

Big East (7)

Lock: Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Marquette, Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse

Need Help: Providence

The win against Pitt helped, but the Friars probably need two more wins to feel secure about their chances.

Big Ten (7)

Lock: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois

Good Shape: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota

Need Help: Michigan, Northwestern

Both UM and Northwestern need to win this weekend or go to the finals of the Big Ten tournament to secure a bid.

Big 12 (6)

Lock: Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Missouri

Good Shape: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

The Big 12 seems secure on six bids. A&M can lock up a bid by beating Missouri on Saturday.

Pac 10 (5)

Lock: UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California

Good Shape: Arizona

As long as Arizona doesn’t lose to Stanford and then in the first round of the Pac 10 tournament, they Pac 10 should send five to the big dance.

SEC (3)

Lock: LSU, Tennessee

Good Shape: South Carolina

Need Help: Florida, Kentucky

The loser of the Florida/Kentucky game is essentially sent to the NIT, with the winner still having to make a run in the conference tourney to get an at-large berth.

Mountain West (3)

Lock: Utah, BYU

Good Shape: UNLV

Need Help: San Diego State, New Mexico

San Diego State can improve its chances by defeating UNLV this weekend. The conference tournament should help decide how many teams represent the MWC in the NCAA Tournament (few as two, as many as five).

A-10 (3)

Lock: Xavier

Good Shape: Dayton, Rhode Island

Dayton should still be in good shape. If Rhode Island makes it to the semis and loses a close one to the Flyers, the Rams might also be on the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday.

WCC (2)

Lock: Gonzaga

Good Shape: St. Mary’s

Patty Mills is back and a trip to the finals of the WCC tournament should lock up a bid for St Mary’s.

There are 22 one-bid leagues, nine conferences that will receive multiple bids and 34 at-large berths. The teams listed in Lock or Good Shape status are considered in the tournament.

Last four in: Maryland, Minnesota, Rhode Island, UNLV.

First six out: Virginia Tech, Providence, New Mexico, San Diego State, Michigan, Florida.

Pac-10 Conference Breakdown: USC Set for Seventh Straight Title

Chris Copeland — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:26:18 -0400

This is my prediction on how the Pac-10 will end up.

1. USC: 10-2 (8-1)

The defense will shine once again, but replacing four offensive linemen will prevent the Trojans from making a BCS Title appearance.

2. Arizona State: 9-3 (7-2)

QB Rudy Carpenter might be the best QB in the Pac-10, and along with 15 other starters, he should help the Sun Devils be good again this season.

3. Oregon: 9-3 (6-3)

Replacing Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart won’t be easy, but the schedule sets up very well for another good year in Eugene.

t4. California: 7-5 (5-4)

With only thirteen starters back and uncertainty at RB and WR, the Golden Bears look destined for a mediocre season.

t4. Arizona: 7-5 (5-4)

QB Willie Tuitama should put up insane numbers again in 2008. Will the defense step up and get UA over the hump?

t4. UCLA: 5-7 (5-4)

QB Ben Olson is out until October, so the Bruins are without a QB again. Rick Neuheisel will have to work some magic to get UCLA to .500.

7. Washington: 4-8 (3-6)

Jake Locker is a special QB—think a smaller version of Tim Tebow. However, the schedule is tough, and the Huskies need to avoid an 0-3 start.

t8. Stanford: 3-9 (2-7)

The schedule is tough, but with 16 starters returning, the Cardinals will look to improve on their four-win season of 2007.

t8. Washington State: 4-8 (2-7)

The Cougars have a new coach and have to replace QB Alex Brink. Can you say rebuilding year in Pullman?

10. Oregon State: 3-9 (1-8)

With huge question marks at QB, RB, and OL, not to mention losing their entire defensive front seven, the Beavers will struggle to do anything in 2008.

Mid American Conference Breakdown

Chris Copeland — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 03:30:07 -0400

This week at the Cappers Corner, I'll take a look at the MAC...

West

1. Central Michigan 9-3 (8-0)
QB Dan LeFevour and the Chippewa offense will explode again, and with nine starters back on defense, it will be very tough to deny CMU a third straight MAC title.

2. Ball St 8-4 (5-3)
With 16 starters returning, including outstanding QB Nate Davis, the Cardinals should have no problem becoming bowl eligible once again.

3. Western Michigan 7-5 (5-3)
Starting 6-1 to start the year is not out of the question and, if the offensive line finds its groove, Western could be the surprise team out of the MAC this year.

4. Northern Illinois 4-8 (3-5)
The Huskies should improve on its two win season last year, but with such a difficult schedule, it’ll be hard for UNI to get more than five wins.

5. Toledo 4-8 (3-5)
With a very tough schedule and only 14 returning starters, the Rockets will struggle to find any consistency all season long.

6. Eastern Michigan 2-10 (0-8)
EMU could win a conference game or two, but the schedule sets up for the Eagles to possibly go 0-8 in the MAC.

East

1. Bowling Green 8-4 (7-1)
QB Tyler Sheehan and 15 other Falcons return in what could be the best team to come out of Bowling Green in quite some time.

2. Buffalo 7-5 (5-3)
With 18 starters back, the Bulls should make the MAC East race very interesting.

3. Miami, OH 7-5 (5-3)
The offense will have to improve on its 19.2 ppg last year if the RedHawks want to go bowling.

4. Kent St 5-7 (4-4)
QB Julian Edelman needs to find some consistency if Kent wants a shot at a .500 season.

5. Temple 6-6 (4-4)
With just about everybody coming back, this could be the year Temple makes some noise in the MAC.

6. Ohio 2-10 (1-7) Six of the Bobcats first eight games are away from Peden Stadium, which will prevent Ohio from doing anything this year.

7. Akron 2-10 (1-7)
13 starters back + an inept offense + a shaky defense equals a disappointing year in Akron.

MAC Title Game
Central Michigan def. Bowling Green 38-31

Sun Belt Conference Breakdown

Chris Copeland — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 05:55:26 -0400

The college football season is a mere seven weeks away, so let’s get cracking on my annual conference predictions.

This week, the Sun Belt Conference…

1. Florida Atlantic: 9-3 (6-1)

With 17 starters returning, including QB Rusty Smith, the Owls are front-runners for a second straight Sun Belt championship.

2. Troy: 7-5 (5-2)

Replacing do-everything QB Omar Haughabook won’t be easy, but there are enough playmakers back on both sides of the ball for the Trojans to do some damage in the conference.

3. North Texas: 6-6 (4-3)

The Mean Green’s offense should explode again in '08, and they should surprise some folks on D with the hire of defensive coordinator Gary DeLoach (previously at UCLA).

4. UL Monroe: 5-7 (3-4)

The Warhawks ended 2007 winning five of their last six, and with 14 returning starters, will look to carry that momentum into a possibly .500 season.

5. Arkansas St.: 5-7 (3-4)

Losing four offensive linemen and their entire secondary will prevent the Red Wolves from making any serious noise.

6. UL Lafayette: 3-9 (2-5)

Even with 15 returning starters, seven road games will ultimately do the Ragin’ Cajuns in.

7. Middle Tennessee St.: 3-9 (2-5)

With only eight returning starters and a tough schedule, the Blue Raiders are destined for a rebuilding year.

8. Florida International: 1-11 (1-6)

The Golden Panthers could go o-fer in '08, but we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt due to a home matchup against Western Kentucky to end the year.

NCAA Tournament Sleeper: USC Trojans

Chris Copeland — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 03:56:16 -0400

USC is back in the NCAA Tournament, fresh off a 2007 Sweet 16 appearance and poised for another deep run.

Led by the outstanding play of freshmen OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson, with help from sophomore sensations Dwight Lewis, Taj Gibson, and Daniel Hackett, the Trojans are not only one of the youngest teams in the Field of 65—they're also one of the most dangerous.

Head Coach Tim Floyd is also very solid. In only two full seasons with the Trojans, Floyd has notched third- and fourth-place finishes in the Pac-10, along with a Sweet 16 appearance.

But neither he nor the Trojans are satisfied.

USC will play in Omaha the first two rounds, drawing fellow teen-heavy powerhouse Kansas State in the opener. KSU has the best overall player in college basketball in Michael Beasley, who's averaging 26 points and 12 rebounds per game.

KSU finished third in the Big 12, with wins over Kansas and Oklahoma. However, outside of Beasley and Bill Walker, another freshman, the Wildcats really don't have a third scoring option—which has been an issue all season long.

The Trojans, on the other hand, have four starters averaging double-digits. The fifth, Hackett, contributes 8.5 points per game.

USC should advance with relative ease, as KSU is very mediocre away from home, boasting a mere 5-9 record. The Trojans, on the other hand, have proven all year long they can compete on the road, with wins over UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona that contributed to an 11-6 road/neutral court record.

Round Two should be interesting, as the Trojans will take on the Big Ten regular-season and tournament champs, the Wisconsin Badgers.

This matchup is the definition of contrast in styles as the Badgers slow the game down to a crawl. However, the problem lies on the offensive end, as Wisconsin has scored over 70 points only twice in its last 17 games.

If USC can get out and run, which is a very good possibility, Wisconsin just doesn’t have enough firepower on the offensive end to compete. In the end, USC will be too much for the offensively-inept Badgers, and will advance to a second-consecutive Sweet 16.

Projecting the Field on Selection Sunday

Chris Copeland — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 04:55:59 -0400

Here is the list of teams that, in my view, will be dancing in the NCAA Tournament.

1 seeds: North Carolina, Memphis*, UCLA*, Kansas/Texas winner
2 seeds: Kansas/Texas loser, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Tennessee
3 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Stanford, Xavier
4 seeds: Butler*, Notre Dame, UCONN, Purdue
5 seeds: Drake*, Marquette, Pitt*, Washington St
6 seeds: Vanderbilt, Clemson, Michigan State, USC
7 seeds: Indiana, Mississippi St, West Virginia, BYU
8 seeds: Miami, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Gonzaga
9 seeds: St Mary’s, Kansas St, South Alabama, UNLV*
10 seeds: Texas A&M, Arizona St, Kentucky, Kent St*
11 seeds: Davidson*, St Joe’s, Oregon, Temple*
12 seeds Illinois St, Arizona, Baylor, Western Kentucky*
13 seeds: George Mason*, San Diego*, Siena*, Cornell*
14 seeds: Boise St*, Oral Roberts*, Winthrop*, CS Fullerton*
15 seeds: Belmont*, Austin Peay*, UMBC*, Portland St*
16 seeds: Coppin St*, Miss Valley St*, American U*, Southland*, Mount Saint Mary’s*

* Auto Bid

Notes:
-Based on Arkansas and Wisconsin winning their conference tournaments. If Georgia and/or Illinois win, the last teams in (Ill St and Arizona) would become the first teams out.
-Seeded teams are not listed in any particular order.

Last 4 in: Illinois St (#65), Arizona, Baylor, Oregon

Last 7 out: Villanova (#66), UMASS, VCU, Dayton, New Mexico, Ohio St, Virginia Tech

I’ll give a quick run-down as to why some teams are in and others are not:

Illinois St: Finished in 2nd place in a top 10 RPI Conference and has RPI of 33. Giving a chance to a mid-major over a middle of the road major conference school.

Arizona St: 5 wins over RPI Top 50 including Xavier and Stanford.

Villanova: 3 RPI Top 50 wins, but bad conference losses to DePaul, Rutgers and Cincinnati.

My goal is to have teams seeded within one line of the actual bracket.

College Basketball Bubble Watch: Mar. 13

Chris Copeland — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 02:40:11 -0400

Well, that was interesting. The Big East Tournament started off with a bang as Syracuse got demolished and will probably have home-court throughout the NIT, while West Virginia held on against Providence and, as long as they don’t get blown out today by UCONN, will enter lock status tomorrow.

Villanova now enters the Bubble Watch, but still needs to beat Georgetown to lock up a spot. I can't understand why people want to put Villanova in now. Why would beating the NIT-bound Syracuse cement 'Nova's tourney bid? The Wildcats need to take care of business this afternoon to receive an at-large bid.

Bubble Watch will now be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 At-Large berths available.

Here are the conferences that will receive one bid (18): Butler (Horizon), Cornell (Ivy League), Winthrop (Big South), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Siena (MAAC), Davidson (Southern), Oral Roberts (Summit), Mount St. Mary's (Northeast), Portland State (Big Sky), America East, Big West, MAC, MEAC, Patriot, Southland, SWAC and WAC .

After the one-bid conferences, there are 33 spots that are “Locked In” for possible multiple bid leagues.

A10 (1): Xavier
ACC (4): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami
Big East (6): UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma
C-USA (1): Memphis
Colonial (1): George Mason
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (1): BYU
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Wash St, USC, Stanford
SEC (3): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Miss St
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WCC (3): Gonzaga, St Mary’s, San Diego

So that leaves 14 spots for potential at-large teams. Each bubble team has a short statement of how many games it needs to win in its respective conference tournament to receive at-large consideration.

Note: Teams in BOLD are teams that would make the field if the season ended today.

A10
Bubble (4): UMASS, Dayton, St Joe’s, Temple

UMASS: A trip to the semis or beyond should be good enough.
Dayton: Squeaked by St Louis and most likely has to beat X today to still have a shot.
St Joe’s: Has to take care of Richmond today and win tomorrow as well.
Temple: Finals trip might do it, but most likely needs the auto-bid.

ACC
Bubble (2): Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech: Beat Miami in the quarters and keep it close against UNC.
Maryland: Needs at least two, but most likely has to go to the finals to secure a bid.

Big East
Bubble (2): West Virginia, Villanova

WVU: As long as they don’t lose by 20+ today, lock status awaits.
Villanova: Took care of Syracuse, but still has to beat Georgetown today to solidify a bid.

Big 10
Bubble (1): Ohio St

Ohio St: Beat MSU in the quarters and the Buckeyes should be dancing.

Big 12
Bubble (3): Baylor, Kansas St, Texas A&M

Baylor: One win and the Bears are dancing.
Kansas St: Probably in either way, but a win would solidify a bid.
Texas A&M: Needs one win for sure; maybe two.

Colonial
Bubble (1): VCU

VCU: Should get a bid, but tough loss to W&M in the tourney semis.

Conference USA
Bubble (1): UAB

UAB: Finals run will get the Blazers into the discussion.

Missouri Valley
Bubble (1): Illinois St

Illinois St: Should get a bid, but probably need some teams above them in the pecking order to lose.

Mountain West
Bubble (2): UNLV, New Mexico

UNLV: Reach the finals of the tournament.
New Mexico: See above.

Pac 10
Bubble (3): Arizona St, Arizona, Oregon

Arizona St: Beat USC and the Sun Devils will be dancing.
Arizona: Got one win, though RPI soared 10+ spots? Needs to beat Stanford today to lock up a bid.
Oregon: Two wins and it'll be tough to leave the Ducks out.

SEC
Bubble (4): Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Florida

Kentucky: Might be in already; but winning one more will lock it up.
Ole Miss: Two wins might do it. Better get three just to be safe.
Arkansas: See Kentucky.
Florida: Finals or bust.

Sun Belt
Bubble (1): South Alabama

South Alabama: Profile isn’t spectacular, but have done enough to warrant a bid.

Last Four in: Ohio St, Oregon, Illinois St, VCU

Last Four out: Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Dayton, Villanova

Next Four out: Virginia Tech, St Joe’s, New Mexico, Maryland

Next update on Friday, March 14

College Basketball Bubble Watch: 3/10

Chris Copeland — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 02:46:18 -0400

Conference tournaments are in full bloom and bubble teams need a good showing if they want that coveted invite into the tournament. Bubble Watch will now be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 At-Large berths available.

Here are the teams/conferences that will have one bid (18): Cornell, Winthrop, Austin Peay, Belmont, America East, Big Sky, Big West, Horizon, MAC, Metro Atlantic, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, SWAC and WAC.

After the one-bid conferences, there are 31 spots that are Locked in for possibly multiple bid leagues:
A10 (1): Xavier
ACC (4): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami
Big East (6): UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma
C-USA (1): Memphis
Colonial (1): George Mason or William & Mary
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (1): BYU
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Wash St, USC, Stanford
SEC (3): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Miss St
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St Mary’s

So that leaves 16 spots for potential at-large teams. Each bubble team has a short statement of how many games it needs to win in its respective conference tournament to receive at-large consideration.

Note: Teams in BOLD are teams that would make the field if the season ended today.

A10
Bubble 4: UMASS, Dayton, St Joe’s, Temple

UMASS: A trip to the semis or beyond should be good enough.
Dayton: Has to beat Xavier in the quarters to have any kind of shot.
St Joe’s: Needs at least 2, maybe 3 wins (which could mean another win over X).
Temple: Finals trip might do it, but most likely needs the auto-bid.

ACC
Bubble 2: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech: Beat Miami in the quarters and keep it close against UNC.
Maryland: Needs at least two, but most likely has to go to the finals to secure a bid.

Big East
Bubble 3: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

WVU: Cannot afford a first round exit. Win and they are in.
Syracuse: Elimination game against Nova. Winner still has a shot.
Villanova: Needs the Syracuse game more than the Orange. Probably has to beat Georgetown as well.

Big 10
Bubble 1: Ohio St

Ohio St: Beat MSU in the quarters and the Buckeyes should be dancing.

Big 12
Bubble 3: Baylor, Kansas St, Texas A&M

Baylor: One win and the Bears are dancing.
Kansas St: Probably in either way, but a win would solidify a bid.
Texas A&M: Needs 1 for sure; maybe 2.

Colonial
Bubble 1: VCU

VCU: Should get a bid, but tough loss to W&M in the tourney semis.

Conference USA
Bubble 1: UAB

UAB: Finals run will get the Blazers into the discussion.

Missouri Valley
Bubble 1: Illinois St

Illinois St: Should get a bid, but probably need some teams above them in the pecking order to lose.

Mountain West
Bubble 2: UNLV, New Mexico

UNLV: Reach the finals of the tournament.
New Mexico: See above.

Pac 10
Bubble 3: Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon

Arizona: Two wins would be good. 3 would be great.
Arizona St: Beat USC and the Sun Devils will be dancing.
Oregon: Two wins and it'll be tough to leave the Ducks out.

SEC
Bubble 4: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Florida

Kentucky: Might be in already; but winning one more will lock it up.
Ole Miss: Two wins might do it. Better get 3 just to be safe.
Arkansas: See Kentucky.
Florida: Finals or bust.

Sun Belt
Locks 0:
Bubble 2: South Alabama, Western Kentucky

South Alabama: Will get an at-large if USA doesn’t win the conference tourney.
WKU: Tournament finals at least. Most likely needs the auto-bid.

Last 4 in: Texas A&M, Syracuse, Ohio St, Illinois St

Last 4 out: Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Dayton, St Joe’s

Next 4 out: New Mexico, Villanova, Maryland, Western Kentucky

Next update on Tuesday, March 11

Bubble Watch: 3/7

Chris Copeland — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 01:46:20 -0500

Bubble teams finally decided to start helping themselves this week. St Joe’s, VT, West Virginia, Ohio St and Kentucky are just a few of the many teams on the brink that won crucial games to make that final push into the Big Dance.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 At-Large berths available. 20 conferences will send one team, while 11 will/could send multiple teams. Here is the breakdown of those conferences:

A10
Locks 1: Xavier
Bubble 4: UMASS, Dayton, St Joe’s, Temple

St Joe’s won half the battle beating X last night and now the game against Dayton this weekend is surely an elimination game. UMASS has won five straight and is looking pretty good. And Temple, winners of three straight and all alone in second in the A-10, joins the bubble watch.

ACC
Locks 3: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson
Bubble 3: Miami, Virginia Tech, Maryland

If Miami wins one of its next two (at Florida St, first round ACC Tournament), the Canes will be locked and dancing. VT has made a strong push and can significantly increase their chances by knocking off Clemson on Sunday. Maryland stays on the bubble and has to beat Virginia to stay there.

Big East
Locks 6: UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt
Bubble 3: West Virginia, Villanova, Syracuse

WVU beat Pitt and is very close to locking up the 7th bid from the BE. Nova and Syracuse also won, keeping their NCAA hopes alive.

Big 10
Locks 4: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
Bubble 1: Ohio St

OSU creeps back on the bubble as the Buckeyes took care of Purdue on Tuesday. However, OSU needs to beat Michigan St this weekend or make the Big 10 finals to have a legitimate shot.

Big 12
Locks 2: Kansas, Texas
Bubble 4: Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas St, Texas A&M

Oklahoma is all but in with their road victory over Okie St on Wednesday. Little separates the next three and whoever makes the biggest splash in the conference tournament will be dancing. My guess is the Big 12 takes five.

Conference USA
Locks 1: Memphis
Bubble 2: UAB, Houston

UAB won again keeping them square on the bubble. Houston rebounded Wednesday night, but still most likely needs to make the C-USA finals to have a shot.

Missouri Valley
Locks 1: Drake
Bubble 3: Illinois St, Southern Illinois, Creighton

Arch Madness is underway and both SIU and Creighton have to win their first round game to stay on the bubble. If Creighton knocks off Drake in the semis and Illinois St or SIU make it to the finals; the Valley could be a three bid league.

Mountain West
Locks 1: BYU
Bubble 2: UNLV, New Mexico

BYU is locked after clinching the MWC Regular Season title. New Mexico stayed alive by upsetting UNLV. The conference tournament semis between UNLV and NM could decide the second bid out of the Mountain West.

Pac 10
Locks 4: Stanford, UCLA, Washington St, USC
Bubble 3: Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon

USC took care of Cal and moves into the tournament. Arizona needs one more win, either at Oregon or first round of the Pac 10 tournament, to secure a spot. Oregon took care of ASU and can greatly improve its status by beating UA to end the year. However, the Ducks still might need two in the tourney to feel safe.

SEC
Locks 3: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi St
Bubble 4: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Florida

Kentucky’s stock is rising as the Wildcats have won ten of twelve. If they take care of UF in the season finale and win one in the SEC Tournament, they should get a bid. Ole Miss stays on the bubble after beating Arkansas and Florida’s chances most likely diminished by losing to Tennessee at home on Wednesday.

WCC
Locks 2: St Mary’s, Gonzaga
Bubble 0:

The Zags won the rematch on Saturday and it seems the WCC will be a two-bid league.

Other At-large Candidates
Locks 1: Butler
Bubble 5: Davidson, South Alabama, VCU, Kent St, Western Kentucky

Kent rebounded nicely by beating Miami this week and needs to beat Akron to end the season to keep their at-large hopes alive. As long as Davidson, USA and VCU make the finals in their respective conference tournaments; all should receive bids. Because of the weak bubble, WKU joins the bubble watch as well.

Next update on Monday, March 10

Projecting the Bracket: 3/4

Chris Copeland — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 04:27:46 -0500

EAST MIDWEST

(1) Memphis (1) Tennessee (16) Play-in game (16) Atlantic Sun

(8) Miami (8) Arizona St (9) Arizona (9) UNLV

(5) UCONN (5) Notre Dame (12) Texas A&M (12) VCU

(4) Drake (4) Purdue (13) Syracuse (13) Maryland

(6) BYU (6) Gonzaga (11) West Virginia (11) Davidson

(3) Xavier (3) Louisville (14) Northeast (14) Summit

(7) St Mary’s (7) Mississippi St (10) Pitt (10) South Alabama

(2) Stanford (2) Duke (15) OVC (15) Patriot

SOUTH WEST

(1) North Carolina (1) UCLA (16) Southland (16) MEAC

(8) Oklahoma (8) Baylor (9)Arkansas (9) UMASS

(5) Michigan St (5) Vanderbilt

(12) Florida (12) Villanova

(4) Butler (4) Indiana (13) Cornell (13) WAC

(6) Marquette (6) Washington St (11) Kansas St (11) UAB

(3) Wisconsin (3) Georgetown (14) MAAC (14) Big West

(7) USC (7) Clemson (10) Illinois St (10) Kent St

(2) Texas (2) Kansas (15) Big Sky (15) America East

East v South Midwest v West

LAST FOUR IN:

Syracuse, Maryland, Florida,Villanova

LAST FOUR OUT:

Virginia Tech, St Joe's, New Mexico, Houston

NEXT FOUR OUT:

Dayton, Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky, Creighton

Next update is Sunday, March 9

College Basketball Bubble Watch: 3/3

Chris Copeland — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 01:34:54 -0500

What is with all the bubble home teams blowing huge leads this weekend? Syracuse, St. Joe’s, and Maryland all blew second half leads which could have greatly improved their chances. Now, all three face must-win games to end the regular season.

Clemson, Miss State, and Pitt moved into the tourney with road wins against fellow bubble teams, while Ohio State, Kent State, Texas A&M, Houston, and the three teams mentioned above all took major losses.

Conference tournaments start on Tuesday and you can bet those teams unsure of their futures will be rooting for all the No. 1 seeds to advance.

Also, congratulations to Ivy League champion Cornell Big Red—the first team to secure a spot in the 2008 NCAA Tournament.

31 conference winners will receive automatic bids, and 34 At-Large berths are also available. 20 conferences will send one team, while 11 may send multiple teams. Following, you'll find the breakdown of those conferences.

A10

Locks 1: Xavier

Bubble 3: UMASS, Dayton, St. Joe’s

UMASS and Dayton both picked up the road wins they needed in order to stay on the bubble. St. Joe’s suffered their second consecutive home loss and now to secure a legitimate claim they must beat X on Thursday and win at Dayton.

ACC

Locks 3: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson

Bubble 3: Miami, Virginia Tech, Maryland

Clemson’s comeback at Maryland put the Tigers safely in the field. Maryland now faces a must win at Virginia to end the season. VT has won three straight and needs to take care of business this week against Wake to stay in the hunt.

Big East

Locks 6: UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt

Bubble 3: West Virginia, Villanova, Syracuse

Syracuse's home collapse basically summed up their season, and an NIT berth barring a monster run in the BE tournament. Seton Hall is also NIT bound after their choke-job at St. John's. WVU still can’t win away from Morgantown, and Nova needs to finish strong to have a chance.

Big 10

Locks 4: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State

Bubble 0:

OSU is done, losing to Minnesota by double digits. The Big Ten sends four.

Big 12

Locks 2: Kansas, Texas

Bubble 4: Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas A&M

Baylor and Oklahoma both won, improving their status.

Kansas State has now lost four straight and needs to win both remaining regular season games to stay in contention. A&M is extremely inconsistent, but could turn it around with wins at Baylor and at UMASS to end the season.

Conference USA

Locks 1: Memphis

Bubble 2: UAB, Houston

UAB won, keeping them square on the bubble.

Houston lost to a horrible East Carolina team. Come Selection Sunday, they will most likely stand outside looking in.

Missouri Valley

Locks 1: Drake

Bubble 3: Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Creighton

Illinois State picked up a huge road win at Southern Illinois on Saturday and is the clear-cut No. 2 team out of the MVC. SIU and Creighton remain in limbo because the bubble is so weak this year.

Mountain West

Locks 0:

Bubble 3: BYU, UNLV, New Mexico

New Mexico has to beat UNLV on Tuesday to stay in contention. If BYU wins the Regular Season title this week, they will move into lock status.

Pac 10

Locks 3: Stanford, UCLA, Washington State

Bubble 3: USC, Arizona State, Arizona

If USC and Arizona State each win one more game, they will both be locks. Arizona blew a chance to lock up a bid by losing to UCLA. Still, they probably need only one more in the regular season and one in the tourney to secure a bid.

SEC

Locks 3: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Bubble 4: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss

Miss State moves in after their road victory on Saturday clinched the SEC West. Arkansas picked up a monster win against Vandy and Ole Miss stayed alive by beating Alabama. Kentucky looked like a tournament team hanging with UT on Sunday, but close losses can only take you so far.

WCC

Locks 2: St. Mary’s, Gonzaga

Bubble 0:

The Zags won the rematch on Saturday. It seems the WCC will be a two-bid league.

Other At-large Candidates

Locks 1: Butler

Bubble 4: Davidson, South Alabama, VCU, Kent State

Davidson, South Alabama, and VCU all stayed the course and took care of business on Saturday. Kent lost and needs to finish the regular season strong just in case the Flashes don’t win the MAC tournament.

College Basketball Bubble Watch: 2/29

Chris Copeland — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 01:31:26 -0500

Some moving and shaking went on this week. The biggest winners were Clemson and Maryland from the ACC, who both picked up conference wins against fellow bubble-ees. Rhode Island, San Diego State, and Creighton all needed strong showings. Unfortunately they all lost and were pushed off the bubble.

31 conference winners will receive automatic bids, and 34 at-large berths are available. Here is the conference-by-conference breakdown of those possibly receiving multiple bids.

A10
In 1: Xavier
Bubble 3: UMASS, St. Joe's, Dayton

Again, it seems no one wants that second spot from the A-10. Rhode Island basically punched their ticket to the NIT with the loss at GW and has now lost five straight games. St. Joe’s took a hit last night with a home loss to St. Louis, but still sits on the bubble. However, if the season ended today, UMASS would be the most likely candidate.

ACC
In 2: Duke, North Carolina
Bubble 5: Clemson, Miami, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake

With Clemson beating Miami on Wednesday, they seem like the third lock from the ACC. Maryland came up with a huge road win at Wake on Thursday and now the Sunday duel against Clemson becomes that much more important.

Big East
In 5: UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville
Bubble 5: Pitt, West Virginia, Villanova, Syracuse, Seton Hall

If Pitt wins one of its next two (at Syracuse or WVU) they move into lock status. Nova blew a chance losing to Marquette earlier this week, and now they could really use a road win at Louisville this weekend.

Big 10
In 4: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Bubble 1: Ohio State

OSU lost again and now has to beat Minnesota on Saturday in order to stay on the bubble.

Big 12
In 2: Kansas, Texas
Bubble 4: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma

Oklahoma laid a dud at Nebraska on Wednesday and now they might need the game against A&M even more than the Aggies do. If K-State sweeps KU, the Wildcats will move in.

Conference USA
In 1: Memphis
Bubble 2: UAB, Houston

UAB and Houston both won, keeping their slim at-large hopes alive. We’ll reconvene on Monday.

Mountain West
In 0:
Bubble 3: BYU, UNLV, New Mexico

New Mexico missed a golden opportunity, losing a heartbreaker to BYU in OT, and now must beat UNLV to stay in the discussion. SDSU is now off the bubble—they couldn’t beat UNLV on Tuesday.

Pac 10
In 3: Stanford, UCLA, Washington State
Bubble 3: USC, Arizona, Arizona State

USC picked up a monster win last night at Arizona. Now they probably need to win only one of their last three games to be safely in the field. ASU missed a chance last night as they were destroyed at home by UCLA. They have now lost three of four. If Arizona finishes 9-9 in the Pac-10 and wins one in the conference tourney, they will also be in.

SEC
In 2: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bubble 5: Mississippi State, Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Ole Miss

Miss State has won five of six and can vastly improve their resume with a road win at Florida on Saturday. Kentucky’s on a tear, Ole Miss has lost eight of ten and Arkansas really could have used that road W at Alabama on Wednesday.

WCC
In 0:
Bubble 2: St. Mary’s, Gonzaga

Both teams should be in, barring any more losses. These two meet up in Washington on Saturday which will determine who will wear the regular season crown.

Other at-large Candidates
In 2: Butler, Drake
Bubble 6: Davidson, Kent State, South Alabama, VCU, Illinois St, Southern Illinois

If Davidson, Kent, and VCU all win out the rest of their regular season games, they will cross into safe territory.

SIU picked up a good road win at Bradley this week and might be peaking at the right time. Illinois State burst Creighton’s at large hopes by taking care of the Jays on Wednesday.