Bleacher Report - Articles by Josh Levitt

Is Jason Marquis' Free Agent Stock Falling?

Josh Levitt — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 14:00:00 -0400

For some, the postseason is a time to solidify their resume and increase their value on the free agent market. But for Jason Marquis, Rockies.html">that's not the case. At least for now:

"Marquis is expected to stay in the bullpen and lose his start in Game 4 to righthander Ubaldo Jimenez, the Game One loser, who would be pitching on normal rest. In the final month of the regular season, Tracy pushed back Marquis to keep Jimenez on his usual schedule.

Marquis made the all-star team after going 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA in the first half. He dropped to 4-7 with a 4.56 in the second half overall and 1-4 with a 6.05 ERA in his final seven starts.

Being skipped in the postseason is common for Marquis. He has been with a playoff team in all 10 years of his career but has made only three postseason starts, none since 2004.

"I think the first two-thirds of the season were exceptional," Tracy said of Marquis earlier in the series. "Right now, he's not throwing the ball in the same manner. This is a performance-oriented business."

Amazing. Just four months after pitching himself onto the all-star team, Jason Marquis has reverted back into, well, Jason Marquis. Sure makes me think that the first four months of the 2009 season were simply a fluke for Marquis.

If Marquis was able to finish out the season strong and combine that with a decent/strong postseason, then there's no doubt that he would have been one of the top starting pitchers on the market this season. In fact, just a few weeks back, I projected Marquis to be in the three-year/$24 million dollar range as a free agent this offseason.

Now, when you take into account that Marquis struggled down the stretch and now he's pitching out the bullpen, is it realistic to think that Marquis can still get $8 million per season?

Past history says yes. Marquis somehow got a three-year/$24 million dollar contract after the 2006 season from the Cubs even though the Cardinals left him and his six-plus ERA off the playoff roster.

But the market has changed drastically from 2006 to now. And unfortunately for Marquis, that might signal that his free agent value will drop further in the coming weeks.

Thoughts?

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Why Trading Boston's Jonathan Papelbon Is a Stupid Idea

Josh Levitt — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 11:50:00 -0400

Now that the Red Sox have been eliminated in painful fashion, let the panic trade rumors begin! First up, yesterday's goat, Jonathan Papelbon:

"In the wake of Boston's 7-6 loss to Los Angeles in the ALDS, message boards and Twitter feeds everywhere wondered if Papelbon had thrown his last pitch in a Red Sox uniform. Over on Fox Sports, Ken Rosenthal suggested that Papelbon would be the one to take the fall for his team's quick playoff exit.

"Trading an elite relief pitcher who just saved 38 games with a 1.85 ERA during the regular season would seem to be the type of reaction easily dismissed as a knee-jerk notion made in the heat of a disappointing loss.

"But the truth is that the idea has been quietly discussed by the members of Red Sox Nation for some time now. Papelbon still has two years of arbitration remaining before free agency, and he was just awarded $6.25 million in 2009, a record for a pitcher. The thinking in New England circles is that GM Theo Epstein could command a decent trade package for Papelbon in the offseason and Billy Wagner could fill the 2010 closer's job at a cheaper rate.

"Daniel Bard, meanwhile, will get more experience to be Boston's future fireman."

The idea to trade Papelbon this offseason is just flat-out dumb. I know Red Sox fans are pissed off about the ALDS and how Game Three ended, but trading Papelbon is not the answer.

Firstly, there is already an absurd number of closers out there on the free agent market. Why would any team pay a premium price for Papelbon when there are so many effective, lower cost options available (Kevin Gregg, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano)?

In addition, one of the ideas why the Red Sox would trade Papelbon is because his salary is becoming too exorbitant. Papelbon earned $6.25 million this season and will be due another raise in arbitration this winter. But lemme ask you this: What team out there is willing to pay a closer between $8-$10 million annually?

The Phillies owe Brad Lidge $23 million over the next two seasons. Cross them off the list.

The Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Twins, White Sox, and Cardinals all have closers under contract for 2010. Cross them off the list.

The Cubs will have VERY limited payroll flexibility this winter. A deal for Papelbon might be out of their financial capability.

And does it make any sense for a team with a limited payroll (below $70-$80 million) to spend around $10 million plus prospects on a closer? No. So cross the Orioles, Rays, Padres, Diamondbacks, etc. off the list.

The only team I can think of that would be a logical destination is the Tigers, but do the Red Sox really want to trade Papelbon to one of their AL rivals? In addition, what "impact bat" can the Tigers send the Red Sox's way for GM Theo Epstein to justify trading his closer?

Finally, remember just how good Papelbon was this season. Sure, this was his down season, but his numbers were still gaudy and impressive: 38 saves with a 1.85 ERA. You can't tell me that the Red Sox would be better off in 2010 without that kind of production in their bullpen. And before yesterday, Papelbon had not allowed a SINGLE RUN in the postseason!

This guy is a top-three closer in baseball, and the Red Sox are lucky to have him on board (even with all his antics). Sure, Daniel Bard might be an effective closer, and Billy Wagner might provide a good option for 2010, but neither of those guys is in Papelbon's league right now.

Thoughts?

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Is Yorvit Torrealba's Free Agent Stock Rising?

Josh Levitt — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:45:00 -0400

Will the real Yorvit Torrealba please stand up?

"With a strong finish to the regular season and a surprise home run in Game Two of the National League Division Series, Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba found himself with a more prominent role for Sunday night's Game Three.

"Manager Jim Tracy moved Torrealba to the No. 5 spot in the order, after batting him sixth in the first two games of the series with the Phillies, which is tied at a game apiece. Torrealba entered Sunday hitting .500 (3-for-6) in the series, with a two-run homer in Thursday's 5-4 victory. It was Torrealba's first homer since early May.

"Torrealba hit .313 during the Rockies' strong September push to the playoffs. Torrealba, who supplanted Chris Iannetta as Colorado's No. 1 catcher in August, finished the season with a career-best .291 average, two home runs, and 31 RBI."

It's hard not to be thrilled for Torrealba considering all that he's been through this season with his son. His performance in the second half of the season was nothing short of inspiring, and in a season where Torrealba had every excuse to put up crappy numbers, he's put up the best offensive numbers of his career. How 'bout that.

So what does the future hold for Torrealba? After this season, Torrealba, 31, has a mutual option with the Rockies for $4 million. Considering how Torrealba has performed this season, it would not surprise me to see the Rockies pick up their end of the option.

Then again, can the Rockies afford to pay $4 million to a guy who before this season was nothing more than a solid defensive catcher with limited ability at the plate?

As for Torrealba...can he get more on the open market if he turns down the option (assuming that the Rockies pick it up)? I doubt it.

Even though the free agent market is painfully weak for catchers and Torrealba is coming off the best offensive season of his career, his 2009 sample size at the plate is simply too small to warrant a much bigger contract. In all likelihood, Torrealba's 2009 season is simply a fluke.

Then again, never doubt the impact of a big postseason on the open market. Keep it up, Yorvit.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent At the End of the Season: Mike Gonzalez

Josh Levitt — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 17:55:00 -0400

Let's take a look at the upcoming free agency of left handed relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez:

The Case for Gonzalez

Left handed

The mere fact that Gonzalez is a power lefty makes him much more valuable on this market. Billy Wagner and Mike Gonzalez are in exclusive company as free agents.

Strikeouts

Gonzalez is a pure strikeout pitcher. Aside from two seasons (2003/2007), Gonzalez's K/9 rate has been at least 10 in every season. Wow. And this year, Gonzalez's K/9 is 10.9 and he's struck out 90 batters in just 74 innings. When he's on, Gonzalez is lights out.

Closer?

Baseball people have always thought that Gonzalez had the stuff to be one of the top closers in baseball. Even though he's been unable to prove himself aside from 24 saves in 2006, Gonzalez still has fantastic stuff that could make him an attractive option in the ninth inning.

The Case against Gonzalez

Closer?

For years I have thought Gonzalez was the next great closer in the National League. Well, that never happened. At this stage in his career, Gonzalez is 32 years old and you have to wonder if he'll ever become a top flight closer.

Injuries

Gonzalez missed a majority of the 2007 season and most of the 2008 season because of Tommy John Surgery. The key to Gonzalez's success is keeping him on the field, but at this point, Gonzalez has to be considered a little risky.

Righties

Incredibly, right handed hitters hit .340 against Gonzalez this year. That number has to make you wonder if Gonzalez has a future as a close.

Competition

There are plenty of relief options available this winter. Between Kevin Gregg, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, etc; there are a number of options for teams to choose from. When it comes down to left handed closers, there are only two options: Gonzalez or Billy Wagner. Both guys have dealt with major arm injuries in the past few seasons, but Gonzalez is younger and could command more than a one year deal.

Elias Ranking: Type A

Gonzalez earned $3.4 million this season, so it makes total sense for the Braves to offer Gonzalez arbitration. Considering his production this season, Gonzalez would be well worth the $6-$7 million (or so) that the Braves would pay Gonzalez in 2010 after arbitration. And even if Gonzalez walks, the Braves still get the two high draft picks.

Will Gonzalez's type A status prevent teams from going after him?

Prediction

Two years/$12 million.

Here are some comparable contracts:
-Juan Cruz (two years/$6 million)
-Kyle Farnsworth (two years/$9 million)
-Brian Fuentes (two years/$17.5 million)

According to fangraphs, Gonzalez was worth $4.2 million dollars this season, but I anticipate that Gonzalez will earn more than that on the open market. Do you think Gonzalez will get a three year contract on the open market? I'm undecided. For now, I'll go with two, but it would not surprise me to see him get a deal anywhere in between 1-3 years.

Thoughts?

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The Mets, John Lackey, and the Johan Santana Treatment

Josh Levitt — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:40:00 -0400

The Mets need a top flight starting pitcher.

John Lackey is the only TRUE top flight starting pitcher on the free agent market.

Match made in heaven?

"People around the Angels believe Lackey is likely to go elsewhere, mainly because the Angels won't be willing to pay his asking price. In fact, some are convinced their deal for lefthander Scott Kazmir in August made Lackey's return all the more unlikely, with Kazmir due some $20 million over the next two years.

It's fair to ask how much is too much for Lackey. On the disabled list with a forearm strain, he didn't make his first start until May 16. He wound up 11-8 with a 3.83 ERA, and he'll be 31 later this month.

But as one AL scout said of Lackey yesterday, "He's good and he's tough. From what I know about the Mets, Lackey's a guy who could make a difference there."

Lackey would be an interesting fit in New York. He tends to speak his mind, even if it means taking swipes at teammates. It hasn't been much of an issue in laid-back Southern California, but one local reporter said, 'It would be in New York.'"

As a Met fan myself, I would love to have Lackey aboard. He would be a fantastic compliment to Johan Santana and significantly upgrade the Mets rotation. With all the questions about the Mets' 2010 payroll, it remains to be seen what kind of payroll they can afford to take on. No matter how much money the Mets have at their disposal, signing John Lackey would command a significant portion of that money.

At the same time, I hope the Mets proceed this offseason with a touch of cautiousness and a whole lot of sensibility. The reality of the Mets right now is that they need much more than just one player if they are going to be a contender in 2010. Even if the Mets sign John Lackey, that will not be enough. They need more pieces.

Hopefully, the Mets have learned from the 2007 offseason. Sure the Mets hit the homerun by picking up Johan Santana, but many other areas that needed upgrading were simply not dealt with. It was as if the Johan Santana deal was supposed to cover up the various deficiencies that eventually plagued the 2008 Mets. If the 2010 Mets are going to make noise, then Omar Minaya needs to build the best 25 man roster possible, not just have six all world players surrounded by a mediocre supporting cast.

So if the Mets have enough money to make a strong play at John Lackey, then I'm all for it...as long as they have enough resources left to adequately fill the team's other needs. But if the Mets only have $15-$20 million to work with, then it makes sense to pass on Lackey and upgrade elsewhere.

Thoughts?

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Nelson Cruz to the Braves?

Josh Levitt — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 09:15:00 -0400

The Braves are still looking for a right-handed power hitter. How's this idea? Nelson Cruz to the Braves:

"Anyway, here’s a name that I think will come up next week: Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz. Yes, the guy that our own Coach (of the blog, or at least he used to be, haven’t seen him around much lately) suggested Cruz as the answer a year ago.

"If the Braves had traded for him instead of signing Garret Anderson, hey, they’d have probably been a better team. But the same could be said for Bobby Abreu and other relatively low-cost options).

"But anyway, Cruz is right-handed and hit .260 with 33 homers, 20 stolen bases, and an .856 OPS in 128 games, and while his .931 OPS at hitter-friendly Arlington was a lot higher than his .778 on the road, he hit almost as many homers (15) on the road than at home (18) in virtually the same number of at-bats.

"True, he hit far better against righties (.270 with .898 OPS and 26 homers in 330 at-bats) than against lefties (.235 with .752 OPS and seven homers in 132 at-bats), but I doubt that would sway the Braves either way, if they’re interested.

"Sometimes it’s just a matter of a team wanting a big right hitter up there to make the other team think about it, to break up a bunch of lefty hitters, or vice versa. And he’s a big dude, a specimen. And the Rangers might have an extra outfielder or two and willing to part with him in a trade. Might."

From the Braves' perspective, there's lots to like about Cruz. He's a young, cheap power hitter who's not eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season. If the Rangers ever made Cruz available, I'm sure the Braves would be banging on their door trying to acquire him.

But here's the thing: Who exactly would the Braves be prepared to part with in order to acquire Nelson Cruz? Young power hitters don't exactly come cheap. I'm sure the Rangers would be looking for premium, young, major league-ready pitching in return.

In addition, Cruz was one of the few bright spots in the Rangers lineup this season, which makes it even less likely that the Rangers will look to deal him.

Because the Braves have a surplus of starting pitchers, GM Frank Wren's goal seems to be to turn one of those starting pitchers into a big bat. Out of the six starters the Braves have right now, only two of them fit the mold of what the Rangers should (and would) be looking for: Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens.

I'll just say it right now: There's not a chance in hell the Braves trade either one of them.

So while the idea of Nelson Cruz to the Braves sounds good, I seriously doubt that it could happen. There's simply not enough incentive for the Rangers to trade Cruz unless they're overwhelmed with an offer they can't refuse.

Thoughts?

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Rafael Soriano: Free Agent at the End of the Season

Josh Levitt — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 12:45:00 -0400

When you think of dominant closers, Rafael Soriano is generally not a name that comes to mind. However, if Soriano is able to consistently put up big numbers like he did in 2009, then he will have to be in the discussion.

When Soriano is healthy, he's a fantastic relief pitcher. But like so many other relief pitchers, Soriano has battled injuries throughout his career, which have stunted his progress.

Let's take a look at Rafael Soriano, the free agent:

The Case for Soriano

2009

Soriano really came into his own this season. Simply put, Soriano was lights out this season. Soriano saved 27 games, produced a very respectable 2.97 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.097. He proved that he could be not just a very good relief pitcher, but a potentially dominant closer.

Strikeouts

Soriano's strikeout numbers this season were simply ridiculous. Soriano struck out 102 batters in just 75.2 innings and set a new career high by striking out 12.1 hitters/9 innings.

Strikeouts are a great indicator of just how dominant Soriano can be when he's healthy.

The Case against Soriano

Injuries

Soriano's injury history is very concerning. He missed most of the 2004 and 2005 seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 2008, he missed most of the season because of elbow surgery.

Soriano's injury history makes him a risky bet to stay healthy consistently.

Closer?

2009 was the first year that Soriano has been a full time closer, so the question has to be asked: does he have the goods to be a full time closer or was 2009 just a fluke?

Competition

There are lots of closers on the market this offseason, but when you talk about the top closers, there are only two names that stand out: Rafael Soriano and Jose Valverde.

When Valverde is on, he's dominant. When Soriano is on, he's dominant. So what will separate these two?

In my opinion, Soriano's injury history makes him the riskier choice, even though he's younger. Both guys will get paid, but I expect Valverde to make a little more than Soriano.

Elias Ranking: Type A

My guess is that the Braves will offer Soriano arbitration. He made $6.1 million in 2010 and would be due for a pretty nice raise in arbitration.

Even though the Braves might feel uncomfortable paying Soriano $8-$9 million next season, the odds are high that he would not accept the offer and would receive a long term contract elsewhere.

If he comes back, then great. If not, then the Braves can at least assure themselves of another two top draft picks.

Prediction

(3 years/$24 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:
• Francisco Rodriguez (3 years/$36 million)
• Brian Fuentes (2 years/$17.5 million)
• Kerry Wood (2 years/$20 million)

Fangraphs says that Soriano was worth $9.1 million this season, which seems about right when we're discussing his value on the free agent market.

Soriano might not be the premier closer in baseball, but he has the stuff to become one of the best.

Thoughts?

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Hypothetically Speaking: Would You Trade Corey Hart for Kenshin Kawakami?

Josh Levitt — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 08:45:00 -0400

As we all know by now:

1. The Braves need a big bat to compliment Brian McCann and Chipper Jones in the lineup. They have a surplus of starting pitchers to part with because of the emergence of Tommy Hanson.

2. The Brewers need a frontline pitcher to pair with Yovani Gallardo in 2010 if they have any chance of making the playoffs

With those needs in mind, let's make a deal. Here is the (hypothetical) offer on the table: Braves trade Kenshin Kawakami to the Milwaukee Brewers for OF Corey Hart.

Would you do it? Let's lay out the pros and cons for each side:

Why the Braves would do it:
-Acquire the big bat they've been searching for
-Get rid of their surplus of starting pitchers
-Hart is under team control until after 2012

Why the Brewers would do it:
-Kawakami gives them a front-line pitcher to pair with Gallardo
-Good price: two years and $13.3 million remaining on deal
-Don't have to deal Prince Fielder to acquire a quality pitcher
-Not taking on too much salary in 2010 or 2011 (Hart will make around $4 million in 2010 and probably will see a raise in 2011 compared to $6.6 million for Kawakami in 2010 and 2011)

Why the Braves wouldn't do it:
-Is Hart simply Jeff Franceour 2.0?
-Will Hart help solve their offensive woes?

Why the Brewers wouldn't do it:
-Do they really want to part with Hart?
-Who would replace Corey Hart in RF?

Conclusion

This is a tough one for the Brewers. On one hand, they would get a very good starting pitcher, which they covet. But on the other hand, I don't think moving Hart would be a popular move with the fan base. Hart had a down year in 2009, but he is a premium talent and those aren't easy to give up on.

So I'll ask again: would you make this deal? Does this make sense...?

Thoughts?

Thoughts?

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Brian Moehler's Option Picked Up by Astros: Am I Missing Something Here?

Josh Levitt — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 11:50:00 -0400

The Astros have picked up Brian Moehler's option for 2010 for $3 million. Wait, what?

"The Astros informed Brian Moehler today that they plan to pick up their portion of the mutual option they hold on the right-hander for 2010.

"Moehler, who had right knee partial lateral meniscectomy to remove loose particles from his knee Monday, has the right to decline the $3 million contract. The Astros had until the fifth day after the World Series to exercise the option or pay Moehler a $250,000 buyout. If he declines, then he doesn’t get the buyout.

"Moehler was 8-12 with a 5.47 ERA this year.

"'We informed Moehler today that we want to pick up his option,' Ed Wade said. 'He has the right to decline. We’re optimistic that Brian is going to be back with us next year.'"

I don't even know where to begin with this one. This move is baffling for many, many reasons.

1. Moehler isn't a good pitcher

It's not like the Astros are paying Moehler for pitching well in 2009. Quite the contrary, actually. Moehler's numbers were pretty bad in 2009 (5.47 ERA/1.54 WHIP), and there was absolutely no reason for the Astros to jump at the opportunity to pick up his option this quickly. This guy is a borderline fifth starter in the majors, at best.

2. Moehler is old

The Astros were the oldest team in baseball this season and NEED to get younger. Brian Moehler will not help the Astros get any younger. By the time the 2010 season opens, Moehler will be 38 years old.

3. Three million dollars!

It's been well documented by now that the Astros are looking to cut payroll. If that's really the case, then how can they justify spending $3 million on a soon to be 38-year-old coming off a terrible season? I know the amount of money is rather small, but I can think of so many better ways for GM Ed Wade to spend that money.

If Wade is serious about cutting payroll, then he needs to be responsible with budget decisions, which means not giving out $3 million to below average starting pitchers.

So if you can think of a logical reason why this deal makes sense for the Astros, I'd love to hear it. I have a very tough time thinking that Brian Moehler was the best the Astros could do for $3 million. Way to go, Ed Wade.

Thoughts?

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The Rays Refuse to Pick Up a Closer Despite Glut of Candidates on the Market

Josh Levitt — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 08:45:00 -0400

Rays fans, get ready for a closer by committee in 2010!

"Rays vice president of baseball Andrew Friedman said he expects the Rays to break camp next spring with the old closer by committee.

"His reasoning? The Rays simply can’t afford someone like Billy Wagner, the former Astros, Phillies, and Mets closer now serving as the Red Sox setup man.

"'I think there’s kind of a misnomer out there that we don’t believe in having someone that can lock down a game,' Friedman said Tuesday at Tropicana Field. 'It’s just that when we get into our roster construction and allocating of resources, it’s very difficult for us to allocate a huge amount of money for someone who pitches 70 innings a year.'

"Friedman added, 'We can’t make any moves in a vacuum.'"

I understand Friedman's logic here. The Rays have a limited payroll, and ultimately, some area of the team is going to suffer. Closers are a very overpriced commodity (outside of Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, etc.), and the save is the most overrated baseball statistic. It seems logical to think that an effective closer can be found on the cheap in 2010 if the Rays have some luck.

However, if there was ever an offseason where the Rays could find a closer on the cheap, it would be this offseason. The reason? There are so many guys on the market who have closing experience. Take a look:

* Billy Wagner
* Rafael Soriano
* Mike Gonzalez
* Fernando Rodney
* Jose Valverde
* J.J. Putz (*option)
* Brandon Lyon
* LaTroy Hawkins
* Kevin Gregg
* Danys Baez

By my count, there are 10 free agents this offseason who have closing experience. There are not 10 teams in baseball that are in need of a closer.

The price tag on some of these guys is bound to fall as the market for closers becomes colder. To me, that would be the ample opportunity for Friedman and the Rays to jump in and acquire a closer at a price that fits within their budget.

No one expects the Rays to sign a closer to a big money contract. That'd be foolish. But how about signing Putz (if he becomes a free agent) to a one-year pact with a low base salary and some nice incentives? A move like that could catapult the Rays to the top of the AL East if Putz is healthy and productive. That seems like a good risk to me.

Thoughts?

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Attention Astros: Jose Valverde is a Free Agent

Josh Levitt — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:45:00 -0400

No matter where Valverde winds up this offseason, this 9th inning intro needs to live on. Classic, classic stuff:

So how about Jose Valverde, the free agent? Let's take a look:

The Case for Valverde

-Dominant

Aside from a rough April (5.63 ERA), Valverde has been lights out this season for the Astros. From May through September, Valverde's ERA never exceeded 2.16. In addition, batters only hit .207 against Valverde this season, which is right in line with his career .208 BAA. Those are some pretty impressive stats, right there.

-strikeouts

Since Valverde entered the majors in 2003, he has averaged at least one strikeout/IP in every season. This season, Valverde's K/9 rate was the lowest of his career at a very impressive 9.3. These stats show that when he's on, Valverde has the potential to dominate (and average a 95+ MPH fastball), which is exactly what you want in a closer.

The Case against Valverde

-Is he worth it?

In this economy given the vast amount of closers who can be had on the free agent market, is there a team out there that'd be willing to pay Valverde more than $10 million per year?

Competition

-The good: Valverde is seen as the top closer on the free agent market. The bad: the free agent market is littered with quality relief pitchers with closing experience that could represent a cheaper option than Valverde (Soriano, Gonzalez, Gregg, Wagner, etc.)

Elias Ranking: Type A

-In my opinion, the odds are very slim that the Astros will offer Valverde arbitration. Even though his performance this season has been stellar, I doubt the Astros are willing to risk paying Valverde $10+ million in 2010, which would make him one of the highest paid closers in baseball. Then again, the Astros' farm system is so bad that I'm sure GM Ed Wade would love to collect those two draft picks.

(h/t MLBTR)

Prediction

(3 years/$27 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:
-Francisco Rodriguez (3 years/$37 million)
-Francisco Cordero (4 years/$46 million)
-Brian Fuentes (2 years/$17.5 million)

According to fangraphs, Valverde was worth just $3.1 million dollars this season. However, because of his potentially dominant stuff and the ridiculous amount of saves he racked up in 2007 and 2008 (91 total), I have a tough time believing that the market for Valverde will bottom out that much. When you take into account that Valverde is only 30 years old, $9 million a season seems very reasonable. But with that in mind, it would not surprise me to see Valverde's price tag plummet if teams choose to go the cheap route.

Thoughts?

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MLB's 2010 Projected Budgets (So Far)

Josh Levitt — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 09:25:00 -0400

With the regular season coming to a close on Sunday, fans of the 21 (soon to be 22) teams that did not make the playoffs have one saving grace this time of year: 2010.

Yes, even though the hot stove is not officially open for business yet, there has been much chatter around baseball about 2010 budgets as teams prepare for the excitement of free agency and trades.

It's fascinating to see which teams are increasing payroll, decreasing payroll, or just standing pat in 2010.

In an effort to make things as easy as possible for you, the reader, I have compiled a list of newspaper quotes stating what the early budget projections are for several teams. Let's take a look:

Baltimore Orioles

"By shedding expiring contracts, the club has dropped approximately $46.6 million from the 2009 payroll. Heading into 2010, they have about $30 million tied up in six players. They'll pay incremental raises to many of their youngsters and will face arbitration hikes with several more. But the payroll will start significantly below what it was in 2009 -- meaning there should be money to tap this winter. So an increase is expected, but the Orioles' 2010 payroll likely won't exceed $75 million."

San Francisco Giants

"Sabean left little doubt that Freddy Sanchez will be the second baseman, whether the club negotiates a multiyear deal or simply picks up his $8.1 million option. The GM said they already have folded Sanchez's salary into their payroll budget, which should hold in the $90 million range."

San Diego Padres

"Padres CEO Jeff Moorad indicated on Saturday afternoon that the team's 2010 payroll would be at least $40 million, which should give Kevin Towers' successor some wiggle room when constructing the roster."

Pittsburgh Pirates

"Coonelly pledged that payroll 'will be above the $28 million range' but did not get more specific."

Houston Astros

"The Astros' record payroll of $107 million in 2009 will likely be cut, and $54.5 million is already tied up in four players -- Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Kazuo Matsui and Roy Oswalt. Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriguez are due big raises in arbitration, making Wade's job more difficult.

'"Our payroll is in all likelihood going to be lower than it was this year,' Wade said. 'It could be appreciably lower, but we don't know until we sit down and get the actual numbers.'"

Cleveland Indians

"When the Indians open the 2010 season, they are projected to have a payroll somewhere between $50 million and $60 million, depending on what they do or don't do this offseason."

Chicago Cubs

"The payroll may go up a little, but only because of all the back-loaded contracts. I don’t see Ricketts as a Steinbrenner-type who will spend, spend, spend to fix the team. The Cubs have spent a lot of money the last few years, and most of it was wasted money. They need to spend more wisely this off-season."

New York Mets

"We demand better, we expect better and our fans deserve better," Wilpon said. "Ownership is dedicated to delivering a championship-caliber team. It is our belief Omar and Jerry have the expertise and deserve the opportunity to help us get there. Once again, we'll be providing Omar with one of the highest payrolls in all of baseball to address our needs."

So for those of you keeping score at home, here are the numbers so far:

Pittsburgh Pirates: $28 million (at least)
San Diego Padres: $40 million (at least)
Cleveland Indians: $50-$60 million
Baltimore Orioles: Less than $75 million
San Francisco Giants: $90 million
Houston Astros: Less than $107 million
Chicago Cubs: slight increase from $134 million
New York Mets: Somewhere in the $140-$150 million range

This post will be updated as more information is released. If you find any budget info for any of the 30 teams around baseball, please email me at jorgesaysno@gmail.com

Thoughts?

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Trevor Hoffman: Price Too Steep?

Josh Levitt — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:15:00 -0400

Like so many other baseball fans, I am a huge fan of Trevor Hoffman and I'm thrilled to see him return in 2010:

"Hoffman, who turns 42 next week, had 37 saves and a 1.55 ERA with the Brewers this season, pushing his career saves total to 591, the major league record. Hoffman will earn $8 million next season, and Hoffman and the Brewers will share an option for another deal in the 2011."

Like I said before, I love Hoffman, but I just don’t know about this deal from the Brewers' perspective. I know Hoffman put together a phenomenal 2009 season and is one of the best clubhouse guys in baseball, but there are a number of reasons why I don't like this deal for the Brewers.

1. Allocation of Resources
-The Brewers have a limited budget to work with as is (a budget that may force them to trade Prince Fielder down the road) and spending $8 million on a closer is excessive in my eyes. I know the Brewers have struggled for years to find a competent closer, but if the Brewers' payroll hovers around $80 million next season, then they will be spending 10% of their budget on one relief pitcher.

2. Cheaper options
-The free agent market is littered with guys, who have closing experience and would probably come at a cheaper and more affordable rate than Hoffman (i.e. Kevin Gregg, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, JJ Putz)

3. Starting pitching
-The Brewers' focus needs to be on finding quality starting pitching behind Yovani Gallardo if they are going to compete in 2010. Personally, I would have preferred to see the Brewers lock up a starter, who can throw 200 IP every season for $8 million instead of Hoffman.

4. More moves
-Between Mike Cameron's impending free agency, a handful of arbitration eligibles (Hardy, Hart, Bush), and holes at 2b and in the rotation; this move could limit Melvin's financial flexibility moving forward.

If the Brewers had a bigger budget to work with, I don't think I'd mind this deal as much. However, it would have been smart for the Brewers to at least see if there were any cheaper options available so that they could have maximized their limited resources on the diamond.

Thoughts?

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Ten MLB Free Agents with Lots of Money to make this Postseason

Josh Levitt — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 08:45:00 -0400

Back in 2005, the Mets signed Carlos Beltran to a staggering seven year, $119 million dollar contract. Beltran was one of the top players in baseball at the time and could seemingly do it all on the baseball field (hit for power, steal bases, gold glove defense).

There's no doubt that Beltran was due for a huge contract, but what cemented his huge contract was his absolutely ridiculous performance in the 2004 playoffs.

For three weeks in October, Beltran was the best player in baseball and showcased his immense ability on the biggest stage in baseball. At the same time, Beltran elevated his free agent stock to a price range that exceeded $100 million dollars. Not a bad deal, if you ask me.

So what free agents this season will use their postseason performance as a springboard for free agent riches? Let's take a look at some possibilities:

10. Jon Garland

9. Vincente Padilla

With Hiroki Kuroda out for the NLDS and possibly longer, the Dodgers will likely be counting on one of these two (or maybe both) to start a game.

Both Garland and Padilla have seen their numbers improve dramatically since joining the National League and a good start in the playoffs could lead to a bigger payoff/commitment down the road.

8. Jason Marquis

For about four months this season, Marquis was one of the top pitchers in the National League. However, his performance has been just terrible. If Marquis can throw together a couple good starts in the playoffs, then teams might feel more comfortable handing him a three year deal.

7. Fernando Rodney* (not officially in the playoffs yet)

Entering this season, Fernando Rodney was an unknown for the Tigers. Everyone knew that he had electric stuff, but no one knew if he could handle being the Tigers' closer.

Despite his 4.33 ERA, Rodney has 37 saves this season, and without him, the Tigers bullpen would have been atrocious. If Rodney shows that he can be a productive closer in the playoffs, then I'd expect his pay day to increase.

6. Randy Wolf

I'm not sure if there's much more Wolf could do to showcase himself in the postseason because his regular season stats were so good. But the pressure is on Wolf, for sure.

The Dodgers will be counting on him to be their ace. And who knows? If Wolf throws a couple of very good games in the playoffs, I could see his stock increasing.

5. Brett Myers

Let me preface this by saying that there's no guarantee that Myers will even be on the Phillies postseason roster.

But nevertheless, if he makes the roster, Myers could be handed a remarkable opportunity. Despite missing lots of time this season because of injuries, Myers could see lots of action in the Phillies mess of a bullpen this postseason.

And you never know. Myers could even see some time as closer for the Phillies.

A solid postseason from Myers could lead to the free agent riches that seem questionable at best right now for Myers.

4. Joel Pineiro

Pineiro has a chance to do something really special this postseason. On one hand, Pineiro has been one of the Cardinals' top pitchers this season and has earned the right to start the third game of the NLDS.

But he does not have the pressure of being "the ace" for the Cardinals thanks to Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. I can absolutely see a huge postseason cementing Pineiro's place as the second best starting pitcher on the market.

3. Jason Bay

If Bay can follow up his stellar 2008 postseason and fantastic 2009 regular season with a quality performance this postseason, then he could be setting himself up for a HUGE payday.

Can he earn more than Matt Holliday? Probably not. But can Bay earn a $100 million dollar contract? With a great postseason, I wouldn't count it out.

2. John Lackey

This is Lackey's time to shine. The Angels need him to be their ace and dominate for the next three weeks. A performance like that would do more than just state the obvious—that Lackey is the best starting pitcher on the free agent market.

It would prove to teams that when Lackey is healthy, he can dominate on the big stage like every team wants their ace to do.

1. Matt Holliday

Can his market value go any higher after his epic two month stretch with the Cardinals? A Cardinals World Championship can go a long way in securing Holliday a deal that far exceeds a total value of $100 million.

Thoughts?

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The Raul Ibanez Effect: Will Aging Outfielder's Contract Influence Free Agency?

Josh Levitt — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 08:45:00 -0400

Last offseason, the Phillies surprised many baseball people by signing Raul Ibanez to a three-year contract worth $31.5 million.

The signing itself was not surprising (unless you were a huge Pat Burrell fan), but the number of years was, with the Phillies willing to give the 36-year-old Ibanez a three-year contract.

So far, the results have been great. The Phillies are back in the playoffs for the third straight season, and Ibanez, at age 37, has put up some of the best numbers of his career (.274, 34 HR, 93 RBI).

As we look forward to the 2009 offseason, I can't help but wonder if the Ibanez contract will become the standard for aging but still productive hitters. Instead of looking for one or two years when the player is clearly past his prime, will agents start looking to get three-year deals like the one Ibanez got?

This discussion is interesting because there are a number of hitters who will be free agents this offseason that fit the "aging but still productive mold": Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu.

While all those guys are still productive hitters and pretty bad defensive players (like Ibanez), I can only see one of those guys nabbing a three-year deal— Bobby Abreu.

No, it's not just because he's been putting up stellar numbers this season. It's also because he and Ibanez share a similar quality that I know teams value (and sometimes overvalue): consistency.

Entering last offseason, Raul Ibanez had played in at least 149 games in every season dating back to 2005 and was showing no signs of breaking down anytime soon. Like Ibanez, Abreu is remarkably consistent. Bobby Abreu has not played in fewer than 150 games in ANY SEASON SINCE 1998. That level of consistency is amazing.

I fully expect Abreu to be paid handsomely this summer. Yes, he's 35 years old and will be 36 in March. But is a three-year deal out of the question? Absolutely not.

Thoughts?

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Hypothetically Speaking: The Tim Lincecum Contract Extension

Josh Levitt — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 14:00:00 -0400

Now that the Giants are officially eliminated from playoff contention, they can finally focus a long-term deal for The Freak, Tim Lincecum. Under ordinary circumstances, the Giants would be in no rush to negotiate with Lincecum. Lincecum will not become a free agent until after the 2013 season and he will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter.

But make no mistake about it, Tim Lincecum is no ordinary player.

In just under three full seasons in the major leagues, Lincecum has established himself as the premier right handed pitcher in the National League.

Last season, Lincecum was awarded the NL CY Young award after winning 18 games on a terrible Giants team. Lincecum did not just win games, he dominated them. In 227 innings pitched, Lincecum struck out 265 hitters and finished the year with a phenomenal 2.62 ERA.

And incredibly, Lincecum has followed up his stellar 2008 season with an even better 2009 season. Lincecum is one of the front runners for the CY Young award again this season and currently has a 14-7 record with a 2.47 ERA and 254 strikeouts in 218 IP.

At 25 years old, it's scary just how good Lincecum has become. He has become the face of the Giants in just three seasons, which is a miracle for the Giants in the post Barry Bonds era.

But Lincecum's dominance is going to come at a price for the Giants. A hefty price.

Because of Lincecum's amazing performance, he's set to demolish all kinds of records this offseason when/if he reaches arbitration. Is it unrealistic to think that Lincecum's salary could escalate this offseason from $650,000 to around $10 million in arbitration? Probably not.

From my point of view, it would make sense for the Giants to try and sign Lincecum to a long-term contract now. If Lincecum is able to keep up this high level of performance and the Giants fail to lock him up, then Lincecum's salary is bound to skyrocket in the next couple of years.

For the Giants, the goal of a contract extension with Lincecum would be to at least buy out a majority of Lincecum's arbitration years. If possible, I'm sure the Giants would love to buy out one of Lincecum's arbitration years, but that might be asking too much at this point.

And for the Lincecum camp, the goal of a contract extension with the Giants would be to guarantee that Lincecum would be paid like one of the top starting pitchers in baseball. There's no doubt in my mind that if Lincecum goes year to year with arbitration, then he could potentially earn more, but having millions of dollars guaranteed has to be quite alluring. And the only way I'd consider giving up a year of free agency is if the deal is massive and groundbreaking.

Now, I've heard the Zack Greinke extensions as a possible starting point for the Lincecum extension because Greinke is the best pitcher in the American League.

However, I'd argue that Greinke's extension has nothing to do with Lincecum's. Greinke signed his extension (4 years/$38 million) last season after having one very good season. At this point, Lincecum has had one very good season and two ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC seasons as he looks towards his contract extension. The Greinke extension pales in comparison to what Lincecum should get.

So how about either of these deals for Lincecum?

Three years/$36 million

2010: $9 million
2011: $12 million
2012: $15 million

*********** ***********

Four years/$55 million with option for 2014

2010: $9 million
2011: $12 million
2012: $15 million
2013: $19 million
2014: $22 million (team option)

This deal would make Lincecum one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball by 2012 (per year) and would buy out all of Lincecum's arbitration years and one year of free agency. The total package would exceed $75 million through 2014 and give Lincecum the opportunity to become a free agent again when he's just 30 years old.

Thoughts? Is this contract realistic? Does it make sense?

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Rich Harden: Free Agent at the End of the Season

Josh Levitt — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:50:00 -0400

Cubs+v+New+York+Yankees+kM1nx496LlRl.jpg">Over the course of his career, Rich Harden has been a maddeningly frustrating pitcher. At times, Harden looks like the best pitcher on the planet because he has the stuff to be one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball.

But every year it seems as though Harden's progression is set back by injuries. Since 2005, Harden has spent ample time every year on the DL and and a result, has yet to establish himself as one of the top pitchers in baseball.

If anything, Harden is still somewhat of an unknown. Everyone knows that he can be dominant, but can he actually stay on the field long enough to strut his stuff?

How will the market line up for Rich Harden? Let's take a look:

The Case for Rich Harden

-Upside

The best thing that Harden has going for him this offseason is that he has more upside than any other pitcher on the free agent market. Harden has the ability to dominate as evidenced by his 10-2 record last season with an incredible 2.07 ERA and an impressive 1.061 WHIP in 25 starts. That potential doesn't just hint of an ace, those numbers signify that Harden has the ability to a dominant ace.

-Strikeouts

Harden led the league in K/9 this season with a staggering 10.9. That number directly reflects how good Harden can be when he's on. And oh yeah, Harden actually struck out more hitters/nine innings last season: 11.

-Age

At 27 years old, there is ample reason to believe that Harden's best years are ahead of him. Harden is just entering his prime years now and is the youngest free agent pitcher on the free agent market.

The Case against Rich Harden

-Health

Rich Harden's numbers on the field are pretty damn good. However, Rich Harden's numbers off the field are downright concerning. Andy by off the field, I'm of course referring to injuries. The reality is this: Rich Harden is injury prone; very injury prone. Take a look at these stats:

-Rich Harden has only started 30+ games once (2004)
-Rich Harden has only thrown 150+ innings in a season once (2004)
-Rich Harden started less than 10 games in both 2006 and 2007
-Rich Harden has spent time on the DL in every season from 2005-2009
-Rich Harden has been on the DL seven times since 2005

Yikes. That's quite the laundry list of injuries.

Teams NEED to proceed with caution when dealing with Rich Harden until he proves he's healthy.

Competition

I'm reluctant to put Harden in the same category as Justin Duchscherer and Erik Bedard, two guys who missed significant time this season because of injury. But I have a tough time placing Harden in the same category as Joel Pineiro, Randy Wolf, or even Jason Marquis because of his injury history and age.

So I think Harden goes in a separate category all by himself: "young, effective, and potentially dominating starting pitcher, who has a tough time staying healthy and throwing lots of innings."

Elias Ranking: Type A

It looks like the Cubs have no plans to keep Harden around, but it might actually make some sense to at least offer Harden arbitration. Harden made $7 million from the Cubs this season and would probably be in line for a raise in arbitration of $2-$3 million. That would put his 2010 price tag at $9-$10 million, which is not that outlandish. In addition, if Harden bolts, then the Cubs recoup two draft picks.

But given Lou Piniella's recent comments about Harden, I doubt the Cubs will offer him arbitration and risk bringing him back.

Prediction
(2 years/$18 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:

-Oliver Perez (3 years/$36 million)
-Brad Penny (1 year/$5 million)
-Kelvim Escobar (3 years/$28.5 million)

Harden's health makes him a huge risk. It's hard to imagine any team committing to him long term at this point given his history. With that said, I still expect Harden to be paid handsomely this winter.

According to fangraphs, Harden was worth $8.4 million this season and a whopping $20.1 million last season, which again proves that when Harden is healthy, he is a very effective starting pitcher.

Two years seems to be a logical risk for both the team and Harden. For the team, this is a short term commitment that would do minimal damage to the franchise should Harden go down with an injury.

For Harden, this deal would give him the opportunity to show teams that he can stay healthy, throw a considerable amount of innings, and become a free agent after the 2011 season when he will turn just 30 years old.

Thoughts on Rich Harden?

Not Sold on Jose Reyes' Health for 2010, N.Y. Mets are Buyers on Infield Market

Josh Levitt — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 08:45:00 -0400

With news breaking yesterday that Jose Reyes has a torn hamstring, I can't help but think how this injury will change the Mets' plans as they head into the offseason.

While nothing has been confirmed as of yet, it seems likely that Reyes is destined for surgery to repair the torn hamstring. According to David Lennon, a complete hamstring tear could take between three to six months to repair.

But no matter how long the Mets expect Reyes to fully rehabilitate the injury, one thing has become painfully clear: The Mets need to prepare for the 2010 season expecting that Reyes will miss ample time.

It's the only way the Mets can protect themselves from the uncertainty that is Jose Reyes.

Hell, even if Reyes is completely healthy at the start of the season, who's to say that Jose Reyes will be the Jose Reyes of 2006-2008?

As uncomfortable and unpleasant as it is to say, the Mets need to go after (free agency/trade) another shortstop for 2010, one who is capable of starting for a extended period of time in case Reyes is out for a long time or if he needs to be spelled.

That means a number of things:

1. The Mets CANNOT rely on Alex Cora in 2010.

2. The Mets' farm system has no one who can step in long-term right now.

3. On top of finding a left fielder, first baseman (?), relief pitching, a power hitter, and some starting pitching, the Mets NEED to add quality shortstop to that list. Omar Minaya is going to have a busy, busy winter.

There are no easy answers for the Mets here. Jose Reyes is one of their cornerstone players, and with his status up in the air, it's another crushing blow for the Mets in what has been one of the most disappointing seasons to date.

Anything the Mets get from Reyes in 2010 should be considered a bonus.

So whether it's Miguel Tejada, Bobby Crosby, Orlando Cabrera, or trading for another shortstop (Cristian Guzman?), Minaya needs to give the Mets another productive option at shortstop until Jose Reyes fully proves that he's healed.

Thoughts?

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Free Agency Looms For Dodgers Pitcher, Randy Wolf

Josh Levitt — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:50:00 -0400

As the Dodgers look towards the NLDS in a few weeks, there's little doubt about which pitcher will start Game 1: Randy Wolf.

When the Dodgers signed Wolf last offseason, they envisioned Wolf becoming a solid back-end of the rotation starting pitcher, who could throw some quality innings and take some of the pressure off the Dodgers' young pitchers.

But as we've seen this season, Wolf has been much more than that for the Dodgers.

How will Wolf's stellar 2009 campaign help him on the free agent market?

Let's have a look:

The Case for Randy Wolf

Amazing 2009

I knew that Randy Wolf was having a very good 2009 season, but I had no idea just how good he was pitching this season until I looked at the numbers.

Check it out:

6th in WHIP: 1.084
14th in ERA: 3.22
1st in BABIP: .256
2nd in quality starts: 24
7th in quality start %: 73%
11 wins (but Wolf should have closer to 17-18 if he could get some run support!)

The Case against Randy Wolf

National League West

If you look at Wolf's splits from this season, you'll see a specific trend: Wolf dominates the NL West.

Just look at his ERA this season against NL West foes:

Padres: 3.04
Diamondbacks: 3.71
Rockies: 2.79
Giants: 1.35

Those numbers make me believe, that Wolf needs to stay in the weak NL West if he wants to maintain this level of success. I question how he'd perform in a stronger division facing better offensive teams 10+ times each season.

Is Randy Wolf this good?

Just throwing it out there.

Randy Wolf has not had a season with a sub four ERA since 2002. Does that mean anything? Maybe not. Wolf had a very good half season with the Astros and followed up on that success this season with the Dodgers.

But given his history, the odds are that Randy Wolf is a lot closer to the pitcher with a four-plus ERA, than the pitcher with a sub-four ERA.

Competition

Wolf's age makes him less appealing than Joel Pineiro, but with his consistency and stellar 2009 campaign, you have to put him ahead of guys like Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis.

Elias Ranking: Type A

There is no doubt in my mind that the Dodgers will offer Wolf arbitration because of his solid 2009 performance and his relatively low 2009 salary ($5 million). I'm sure the Dodgers would be happy to have Wolf back for around $8-$10 million next season- and if he doesn't return- then the Dodgers will get two draft picks as compensation.

Food for thought: Will teams shy away from Wolf if the Dodgers offer him arbitration?

Prediction: 3 years/$31.5 million.

According to fan-graphs, Wolf has been worth $14 million this season. Now there's no way Wolf is going to get that on the open market, but can Wolf get $10 million per year on the open market?

If the scenarios play out properly, then, I could see it happening.

Free Agent Adjustments: Doug Davis

Josh Levitt — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 08:45:00 -0400

(For the last few weeks, I've been profiling some of the best free agents on the market this winter. At the end of each piece, I made a prediction regarding the type of contract the player could be in line to see. Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen their value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look at the impending free agency of Doug Davis )

Initial Prediction: (Three years/$27 million)

*****************

New Prediction: (Three years/$21 million)

What Changed: Randy Wolf. Yes after evaluating the free agency of Randy Wolf, I felt that there was no way in hell Davis was going to come close to three years/$27 million. That's the kind of contract that I'd expect Wolf to get in this market.

Davis is a very good pitcher, and might wind up being a better value than Wolf over time, but Randy Wolf's 2009 season has catapulted him into a different level contractually than Davis. Davis will still do nicely on the free agent market, but I think my initial estimate overshot his true value a bit.

Thoughts?

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Detroit Tigers: One of the Best Teams Money Could Buy?

Josh Levitt — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:00:00 -0400

Are the Tigers one of the 10 best teams that money could buy? Jon Heyman think so:

10T. Detroit Tigers, $119 million. They've got a few high salaries (Magglio Ordonez at $18.9 million, for example), but they also have a formidable team. As evidenced by their liberal draft strategy, they are always willing to pay for untested talent. Rick Porcello's a great deal, even with him being close to the highest-paid rookie ever ($2.1 million).

It's amazing to me that the Tigers are in contention this season with the amount of high-priced, underperforming (some possibly useless) parts they have on their roster right now. Take a look:

Jeremy Bonderman (injured): $12.5 million

Nate Robertson: $7 million (worth $0 million this season according to fangraphs)

Dontrelle Willis (injured??): $10 million

Aubrey Huff: $2 million (worth -$2.7 million this season according to fangraphs)

That's $31.5 million right there. And that's not even taking into account two of the more controversial players on the Tigers' roster right now.

Magglio Ordonez: $18 million

Carlos Guillen: $10 million

A case can be made that both of these guys are egregiously overpaid.

Ordonez had a terrible first half of the season and there was even chatter that the Tigers were going to bench the slugger. But luckily for him (and the Tigers), Ordonez has turned it on in the second half and now resembles a half-decent ballplayer even if his power is non existent.

Guillen is another story. He has missed lots of time this season because of injuries and has only played in 74 games. During that time, Guillen has only hit .258 with 11 HR and 48 RBI. Fangraphs says that Guillen has only been worth $3.4 million this season, which is a far cry from the double digit total he's currently earning.

If you want to say that the Tigers are one of the best teams money can buy, so be it. But that statement makes little sense.

The Tigers have at least $31.5 million this season committed to players, who are either injured or performing very, very badly. In addition, they have another $18 million committed to two stars, who are not coming close to performing like stars.

All together, the total amount of under-performing stars, struggling veterans, and injured players is $59.5 million.

Still think the Tigers are one of the best teams money can buy? Think again.

Thoughts?

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Valuing Joel Pineiro: What Will the Cardinals Pitcher Garner on the Open Market?

Josh Levitt — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 11:50:00 -0400

What kind of contract will Joel Pineiro get on the open market? The great Jon Heyman took a stab at that very question yesterday with this prediction:

"Pineiro, two years, $15 million."

This prediction is interesting to me because it's far lower than my prediction for Pineiro a week back of four years/$40 million. Either I really like Pineiro or Heyman really dislikes Pineiro. Or maybe the market just sucks.

But nevertheless, here's my reasoning for the four years/$40 million prediction:

1. He's young (just turned 31).

2. Fantastic 2009 season.

Does anyone realize just how good Pineiro has been this season? According to FanGraphs:

* Pineiro has been worth $23.8 million this year

* 5.3 WAR

* First in BB/9 (1.1)

* First in HR/9 (.3)

* First in ground ball percentage (61.4 percent)

* Third in line drive percentage (15.6 percent)

* Ninth in WHIP (1.13)

* 15 wins

3. Pineiro is one of the best free agent pitchers on the market.

Seriously. Here is my top five:

1. John Lackey

2. Joel Pineiro

3. Randy Wolf

4. Rich Harden

5. Jason Marquis

It's hard to argue that Pineiro is not the second best pitcher on the market right now. He's one of the youngest quality free agent pitchers on the market and is coming off a season where he dominated the National League.

I know Pineiro's history isn't the greatest, but can anyone honestly see teams letting Pineiro get away signing a two-year, $15 million contract? I doubt it.

If the market falls to the point where Pineiro is settling on two years/$15 million, then the other free agents in this class are going to have a very rough time.

Thoughts? What kind of deal will Pineiro receive?

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Free Agent Adjustments: Russell Branyan

Josh Levitt — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 08:45:00 -0400

For the last few weeks, I've been profiling some of the best free agents on the market this winter. At the end of each piece, I made a prediction regarding the type of contract the player could be in line to see. Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen thier value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look at the impending free agency of Russell Branyan.

Initial Prediction: Two years/$15 million

When I posted my original piece about Branyan on August 7, Russell Branyan was on pace to put up some of the best power numbers of any hitter in the AL this season.

After struggling for so many years, Branyan broke out in 2009 by hitting .260-24 HR-61 RBI-.361 OBP. Branyan had a legitimate chance to hit 40 home runs if he stayed healthy and productive through the end of September.

New Prediction: Two years/$10 million

What Changed: Well, Branyan was unable to stay healthy and productive. In the second half of the season, Branyan hit just .193 with 9 HR and 27 RBI. To make matters worse, Branyan has been out since August 29 because of a herniated disk and it's doubtful that Branyan will play again this season.

The second half raised lots of questions about Branyan: was the first half of the season just a fluke? Or was his second half so poor because he was injured?

Branyan still finished out the year with an impressive 31 home runs, but those questions coupled with his age and performance history, make me doubt that any team will give him $7 million per.

Thoughts?

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Luis Castillo Isn't This Bad, Right?

Josh Levitt — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:25:00 -0400

This little nugget in the most recent Heyman column caught my eye:

"Luis Castillo ($6.25 million) can hit for average and reach base, but this is a $1 million player, at best."

Just for the record Jon, fangraphs states that Castillo was worth $7.7 million this season, which in essence would make him unpaid....but I digress....

Look, I hate Castillo's defense as much as the next guy and, yes, we all know that Luis Castillo cannot hit for power. These limitations are painfully obvious. And again, we all know that Luis Castillo's performance was embarrassing last year....to the point where he was benched for Ramon Martinez!

But saying that Castillo is only a $1 million player is wrong.

The reality is that Luis Castillo can STILL bring a lot to the table and be a productive force at the top of the lineup. Just take a look at some of his stats from this season:

-.311 batting average
- 76 runs scored
-.397 OBP
-68/55 strikeout to walk ratio

I believe in Luis Castillo. I believe that if the Mets lineup was completely in tact this year, then Castillo would have scored over 100 runs and would have been hailed as one of the dynamic catalysts for the Mets offense. However, the Mets offense has been absolutely brutal this year, and unfortunately for a guy like Castillo, in order for him to get any significant credit for his performance, then the rest of the guys around him have to be healthy and productive at the dish.

But because the other key guys were all out for long periods of time this season (Delgado, Reyes, Beltran), Castillo's productive season doesn't look quite that good and as a result, people think that he's still one of the biggest busts in baseball. (I'll admit, the drop at Yankee Stadium sure didn't help)

Luis Castillo is not worth $6.25 million or $1 million. The truth is that his value lies somewhere in between those two numbers, probably at a range of $3-$4 million. So yeah, Luis Castillo is a little overpaid by those standards, but by no means is he THAT overpaid. If Castillo was a FA, would teams shell out $6 million+ for him? No. But at the same time, should the Mets be kicking themselves for signing Castillo for $6 million a year....no.

Not right now, at least. The Mets have bigger fish to fry moving forward.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Jason Marquis

Josh Levitt — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 12:20:00 -0400

After the 2006 season ended, the future of Jason Marquis seemed to be very much in doubt. Marquis was coming off the worst season of his career where he posted an embarrassing 6.02 for the Cardinals and even led the league in home runs allowed and earned runs allowed.

Luckily for Marquis, he became a free agent at the perfect time. Teams were desperate for pitching and the Cubs decided to take a chance on Marquis. A very expensive chance. The Cubs signed Marquis to a 3 year/$24 million dollar contract that baffled most of the baseball world.

For the first two years of that contract, Marquis was nothing more than a mediocre starting pitcher. But this year with the Rockies has been Marquis best performance since 2004.

The Case for Jason Marquis

-Ground Balls

A big reason why Jason Marquis has been so successful in Colorado this season is because of his incredible ground ball percentage. According to fangraphs, Marquis is third in all of baseball in ground ball percentage (55.2%). That stat alone tells you that Marquis can pitch effectively in a bandbox.

-Home Runs

Good luck hitting a home run against Jason Marquis. Sure, he's no Joel Pineiro (.31 HR/9), but Marquis has been incredible at keeping the ball in the ballpark this season despite pitching in Colorado. Marquis .66 HR/9 ratio puts him in the top 20 in baseball this season, which is an impressive feat with or without the humidor.

-Dependable!

Quality innings v. Quality innings? Who cares! In 5 of the past 6 seasons, Marquis has thrown at least 190 innings. Odds are high that when that fifth day rolls around, Marquis will be there to take the ball.

The Case against Jason Marquis

-Fluke?

In the three seasons prior to this one, Marquis put up the following ERAs:

2006-6.02
2007-4.60
2008-4.53

While I don't think Marquis is as bad as his 6.02 ERA in 2006 suggests, is he really as good as his 3.98 ERA in 2009 suggests? Or is this just a fluke season at the right time for Marquis?

-September

For the first four months of the season, there weren't many pitchers in baseball that were more consistent than Jason Marquis. However, in the month of September, Marquis has been terrible. His September ERA currently sits at 6.28, which is odd considering his strikeout rate is actually up this month. Nevertheless, Marquis has come back down to Earth in a big way.

Competition

I would say that Marquis is a notch or two below Joel Pineiro at this point, but can he compete with Doug Davis, Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Rich Harden, Braden Looper, and Jon Garland? I think so. And in many respects, you can make the case that Marquis is better than most of those guys.

Elias Ranking: Type B

After making almost $10 million this season, it's hard to see the Rockies offering Marquis arbitration. It's easy to see why they'd like to keep Marquis, but I have a tough time believing that the Rockies can afford to spend $12-$14 million+ on a above average pitcher.

Prediction
(3 years/$24 million)

I have to give Marquis the Adam Eaton kiss of death contract here: 3 years/$24 million. It's funny because those two pitchers have so much in common stylistically, but so little in common right now. A few months back, maybe Marquis is able to crack the $10+ million per year mark, but after his rough September, I think this amount is fair.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent Adjustments: Jim Thome

Josh Levitt — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 08:20:00 -0400

Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen thier value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look...starting with Jim Thome.)

Initial Prediction: (One year/$8.5 million)

When I posted my original piece about Thome on Aug. 13, Jim Thome had 21 home runs and seemed well on his way to hitting 30+ home runs and driving in at least 90 runs.

******** *********

New Prediction: (One year/$6 million)

What Changed: On Aug. 31, Thome was traded from the White Sox to the Dodgers, who were in need of some pop of the bench. The trade to the Dodgers gave Thome a great shot at winning a title, but as a result, he hasn't come close to hitting 30-35 home runs.

His stats currently sit at 24-77-.248-.367, which are nice, but worthy of $8.5 million next season? I don't think so.

Thoughts?

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Hypothetically Speaking: The Justin Verlander Contract Extension?

Josh Levitt — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 09:15:00 -0400

After a strangely inconsistent 2008, Justin Verlander has regained his form and established himself as one of the top pitchers in baseball. In the much tougher American League, Verlander has put together a tremendous, and at times dominant, season. He is 17-9 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and most impressive of all: 256 K in 217 IP.

Verlander has become the ace that everyone thought he'd become. I'd like to tell you that I'm surprised, but Verlander's stuff is so good that I expected him to become an true ace.

However, Verlander's contract situation is an issue that the Tigers will have to address sooner rather than later. Verlander has two years of arbitration left after this season and will become a free agent after the 2012 season. He is due a big raise from the $3.675 million that he earned this season because his performance has been so good.

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that the Tigers approach Verlander about a possible contract extension. Sure, their attendance is down and the team lacks significant payroll flexibility this offseason (thanks Dontrelle, Nate Robertson, Bonderman, and Magglio), but GM Dave Dombrowski understands just how important Verlander is to this franchise and wants to avoid the hassle of arbitration and lock up his ace.

Now that we've established that, what kind of contract (years and dollars) do you think would be fair here?

My guess: four years/$60 million

Here's why it works for the Tigers:

1. Tigers buy out Verlander's two years of arbitration (yay!)
2. Tigers buy out two years of Verlander's free agency and keep him until at least 2012
3. Verlander will easily get $7-$8 million in 2010 after arbitration...this deal would only increase the Tigers 2010 payroll by $7 million (roughly), which would leave plenty of room for the front office to address the Tigers' other issues.

Here's why it works for Verlander:

1. He would be paid in the same range as many other top starting pitchers
2. Huge raise in 2010....this deal would probably pay him more than he would have earned in arbitration in 2011.
3. He doesn't have to wait to get a huge raise
4. Verlander can still become a free agent after 2013, when he'll be just 30.

Thoughts?

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Hypothetically Speaking: The Dan Haren Contract Extension

Josh Levitt — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 15:15:00 -0400

Last August, the Diamondbacks signed Dan Haren to a very team friendly four-year/$44 million extension that replaced the final two years of his previous contract. By all accounts, Haren was willing to take less than he might have warranted on the open market because he loved Arizona and being with the Diamondbacks.

But now as the 2009 season comes to a close, Haren's contract extension is looking like even more of a steal for the Diamondbacks. Haren, 29, is putting up the best numbers of his career with the Diamondbacks this season (14-9, 2.90 ERA, leading the NL in K/BB ratio and WHIP) and has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the National League.

So hypothetically speaking, how much larger would Haren's contract with the Diamondbacks have been if he waited until this summer to negotiate a contract extension? Instead of $44 million over four years, how much more could Haren have earned? $20 million? $30 million? Or even more?

Would $80 million over six years have been unrealistic?

My guess is no. Not only would Haren have had more leverage in negotiations (FA after 2010), but he would be coming off the best season of his career at 29-years-old.

Please leave your predictions/thoughts in the comments.

Thoughts?

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Doug Davis: Free Agent at the End of the Season

Josh Levitt — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:25:00 -0400

I'm a huge fan of Doug Davis. There is no way that Davis should be considered an ace or even a front-line starting pitcher because his stuff is simply not that dominant.

However, Davis is your classic middle-of-the-rotation starter, who gets the job done and is about as consistent as they come. While Davis might not be the first choice for many teams, he's exactly the kind of pitcher that so many teams need.

How will Davis' limitations and consistency play out on the open market? Let's take a look:

Pros:

Quality

I know the quality start is not the best judge of a pitcher's performance, but what Doug Davis has done over the years is pretty amazing.

2009: 21 quality starts, 66 percent
2008: 14 quality starts, 54 percent (injured)
2007: 19 quality starts, 58 percent
2006: 16 quality starts, 47 percent
2005: 23 quality starts, 66 percent
2004: 24 quality starts, 71 percent

As much as I like Doug Davis, I never actually realized how consistent he has been over the past six years. That's the kind of consistency that so many teams would love to have at the back end of their rotation.

Consistency

In five of the past six seasons, Doug Davis has recorded at least 30 starts with the lone exception being 2008 when Davis had to take time off to deal with thyroid cancer. Teams will pay for that kind of consistency.

Cons:

WHIP

One negative about Davis is that he puts lots of runners on base. His lifetime WHIP sits at 1.491 while his 2009 WHIP is 1.495, which puts him 45th in the National League this season.

Walks

Doug Davis is not known as a control pitcher, but it has to be concerning to see that Davis currently leads the NL in walks (96).

Competition

The market for quality left-handed starting pitchers this offseason is quite weak.

Jarrod Washburn is old and injured. Erik Bedard is injury prone. Randy Johnson is old and injured. Andy Pettitte—does anyone really think he'll hit the open market?

So, pretty much by default, Doug Davis has become the premier left-handed starting pitcher on the open market and will probably be the only lefty to command more than a one year deal.

Elias Ranking: Type B

I don't think there is enough upside here for the Diamondbacks to offer Davis arbitration. Davis earned $8.75 million and if he accepts arbitration, then he will definitely be looking for a nice pay raise.

Davis is a nice player, but he is certainly not worth $11-$13 million that the Diamondbacks would have to pay him. Also, since Davis is a type B FA, the Diamondbacks wouldn't even get two high draft picks for offering him arbitration.

Prediction for his contract: Three years for $27 million.

Doug Davis is going to surprise some people on the open market. He's a guy that's been overlooked for the bigger part of his career, but I'm confident when I say that Davis will get paid this offseason. According to fangraphs, Davis has been worth $7.7 million this season, but in the five year previous, Davis was worth between $9-$14 million dollars.

My guess is that his price range falls much closer to $9 million than $14 million.

Thoughts?

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2009 New York Mets: A Blessing in Disguise?

Josh Levitt — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 09:25:00 -0400

When I think about how badly the Mets 2009 season has been, I cringe. I can't help but think what could've been, even though I know that this season was doomed from the start.

This team was not well constructed, and the rash of injuries, no matter how severe they were, highlighted the Mets' shortcomings.

And yes, there were many problems with the Mets that we could focus on today:

• the lack of depth
• the inability to produce quality players in the minors, who could step in right away
• the dependency on old players
• the inability to find proper players to supplement the Mets' core
• all those injuries!

But as the Mets move forward, there's one problem in particular that the Mets need to address before the 2010 season: the starting pitching.

And for the first time in years, I'm actually confident that the Mets will make a move to acquire another top-flight starting pitcher.

Why do I think this? Well, because the 2009 season left the Mets with more questions than answers regarding the guys that they currently have after Johan Santana. Each one of these guys was given the chance to step up and be the Mets' No. 2 starter, but no one did.

Mike Pelfrey

Came into the 2009 season as the Mets No. 2 starter...5.08 ERA this year...Can he become the pitcher everyone expects him to be?...HUGE STEP BACK

Oliver Perez

Came into the 2009 season as the Mets best left handed starting pitcher not named Johan Santana...6.82 ERA this year...dealt with a variety of injuries...INCONSISTENT

John Maine

Came into the 2009 season as one of the Mets top starting pitchers...4.13 ERA this year, but dealt with a number of injuries and missed significant time...throws too many pitches and almost never lasts more than five or six innings

Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine were supposed to anchor the rotation after Johan Santana, but none of those guys showed anything this season for me to believe that the Mets should trust any of them to be the No. 2 starter. That realization could be a blessing in disguise for the Mets.

Think about it: If the Mets go into the offseason with the mindset that Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine are nothing more than three, four, and five starters, then there should be a very realistic chance that the Mets make a huge run at a big-name pitcher.

It comes down to being realistic: The Mets can longer depend on any of these three to be the guy behind Johan Santana in 2010. None of them have proven it consistently in the big leagues.

Having another top-flight starter to pair with Johan Santana would help jump start the Mets from 2009's laughing stock to contenders in 2010.

And who knows, maybe Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez finally make the leap in 2010 and become the pitchers that baseball people think they could be.

But the 2009 season has made it very clear. The Mets cannot afford to not go after a top flight starter this offseason.

And for Mets fans everywhere, this is a good thing.

Thoughts?

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