Bleacher Report - Articles by rob murray

Black & Blue Tuesday

rob murray — Wed, 20 May 2009 00:58:12 -0400

It’s bad enough taking a shot to the gut, but to have it followed up with a jab to the face, ouch. That’s how my Tuesday went, when I learned that John Wall was headed to Lexington and Gerald Henderson signed with an agent, ending his career as a Blue Devil.

First, let me take the high road. Congratulations to Kentucky. You got a solid talent in Wall. There is no doubt, with or without Meeks, Kentucky is an instant top-10 team. I know some of you Blue Grass faithful will want to stick them No 1 right now, but let’s let these kids earn something before we award them the title.

The talent is there, with four for-sure NBA players (if Meeks comes back), with potentially three more future NBA players as well. I see four challenges for Kentucky though:

A) Who you going to cut? If Meeks comes back, the Wildcats will be four over the scholarship limit. That means four players have to give up their scholarship. My guess is, Coach Cal will tell some they won’t see any playing time and four will eventually transfer out. It’s a little rough, but Coach Cal wanted to bring in his own boys, plus keep Gillispie’s recruits, and that’s that.

B) If Kentucky wants the title, there’s little time for growing pains. While Patterson and Meeks were the stars last year, let’s not forget, these two have yet to taste the NCAA tournament. Obviously, that won’t be an issue this season, but if they want a title, the two most important players will be two freshmen; Cousins and Wall. If you recall last year’s Final Four, there weren’t a lot of freshman playing the important minutes.

C) The Wildcats are oozing with talent, but don’t forget, talent doesn’t just automatically jell. If that was the case, then this past summer the U.S.A. basketball team would have won their fifth straight gold medal in China, and not just their first in a long time. These guys will have to learn to check those mighty egos at the door to make a deep run in the tournament.

D) Calipari still needs to prove he’s a championship coach. There is no doubt he’s the man in recruiting, but let’s not forget, this is a man who’s had some pretty great talent already and still has the same amount of championships as I do (that would be none). Maybe he’s learned something too and will value free throw shooting.

Having said all that…it sure would be nice to have those problems. Good luck, Kentucky and good luck, John Wall.

As for Henderson, I’m certainly disappointed, but I can’t blame the guy. For the first time in his career, he was completely healthy and he proved how good he could be. His dream has always been to be in the NBA, so why not go now. In reality, with next season’s freshman class, plus with so few freshman going early this year, there is little doubt Henderson could improve his draft status by playing one more season of college basketball.

Obviously, I think he will be a solid pro, however, I still feel like he needed some work. He struggled to go to his left last year and he has not shown that he can hit the NBA three-point shot consistently. Worse yet, he’ll have to live with the fact his best friend, Wayne Ellington got an NCAA championship and he didn’t.

Word is, Henderson will end up in Charlotte, who is desperate for a two-guard. Good luck, Gerald. I’ll be cheering for you.

So what now for Duke? Size, size, oh and more size.

First, the good news. Duke just got a lot bigger by subtraction. Singler will switch to his natural position at small forward. at power forward and center, it doesn’t really matter who starts, but my best guess is Lance Thomas and freshman, Mason Plumlee. In reality though, you’re going to see a six-man rotation of Thomas, Zoubek, Kelly and the two Plumlee brothers. To be honest, I don’t know where Czyz fits in, although I’m sure the coaching staff will figure out his role.

The inside actually excites me. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not as good as Carolina’s Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and John Henson (and you can thrown in the Wear brothers, although I don’t see them playing too much their freshman years). However, our six-man front-court rotation has size, a 7-footer and three 6-10 guys, experience; Thomas, Zoubek, pure talent (Mason Plumlee) and a three-point shooter(Kelly). Obviously, it will be up to the freshman to walk right in and do all the things missing in the paint the past few years; defending, rebounding and most importantly, scoring in the post. We will see if that’s asking too much.

Obviously, the best move is Singler going to small forward. Thanks to his experience inside the past two years, he’s stronger, tougher and can play inside, but now he’ll be where he should be and he’ll be a match up nightmare for a lot of opposing coaches.

Now the bad news. Duke will only have three legit guards on the 2009-10 roster. I shutter the thought of foul trouble or dare I even think it, an injury to either Scheyer, Williams or Smith.

Like last year, Duke’s problem is at the point, where we don’t have a point guard, which is pretty sad considering we have what seems like 85 McDonald’s All-Americans on our roster . Of course if John Wall picks Duke, PG is not an issue and the Devils are ranked preseason No 1 this fall. Without him (and Henderson), we have some issues.

So who will play the point? Obviously Scheyer did a nice job, but his limitations were exposed against a athletic Nova team and trust me, it will happen again in 2009-10 if Johnny finds himself back running the point. Elliot Williams is a natural two-guard. Sure he proved he can guard the point, but Duke needs a man who can run the offense and get into the lane and make the decisions. He is not that guy. This leaves Nolan Smith.

I think Nolan’s a great kid. You can’t read an article about him and not like him. I also believe he CAN play the point for Duke. Don’t get me wrong, he’s no Jason Wiliams. He never will be. However, there is no reason why he can’t be as good as Chris Duhon.

Last year, late in the season, after returning from the concussion, he finally looked relax. He was coming off the bench, doing his job and it looked like he was enjoying himself again. The question is, can he relax, perform and simply have fun playing the point for Duke? Can he get into the lane with the ball? Can he keep opposing point guards out of the lane? All great questions, with the same answer. I don’t know. He hasn’t really done it yet in his career. My best uneducated guess is, we’ll find out soon enough. This is the route Coach K will most likely take to start the 2009-10 season; Smith, Scheyer, Singler, Thomas, Mas Plumlee as out starting five, with Williams, Zoubek, Mil Plumlee, Kelly and Czyz coming off the bench.

Let’s think deeper and talk about the future beyong 2009-10 and recruiting.

This past recruiting season was a frustrating one..to say the least. In fact, the past five or so years has been tough for any loyal fan of the Blue Devils. Too many stars; Patterson (2007), Monroe (2008), Kenny Boynton (Florida ‘09), John Wall (Kentucky ‘09), Leslie McDonald (Carolina ‘09) and Erik Murphy (Florida ‘09) have gone elsewhere. Not to mention, solid point guards like Darius Smith and Eric Bledsoe, weren’t ever seriously chased, even though they were interested in Duke. It just seems like the coaching staff only goes after a handful of studs, so if they fail to land them, it’s too late in the recuriting process to recover.

The 2010 class will tell us a lot. By the look of things, Coach K has already learned his lesson and got the ball rolling early. He has nailed down three solid commits; five-star (SG) Andre Johnson, four-star (PF) Joshua Hairston and three-star (PG) Tyler Thorton. Not to be forgotten is Liberty transfer, Seth Curry. These four are solid grabs and you can already put Duke down for a top-ten recruiting class (obviously excluding Curry), but the true test for the coaching staff will be their ability to land one of the superstars in the 2010 class. I’m talking about (according to Rivals), No 1 Brandon Knight, No 2 Harrison Barnes and No 5 Josh Smith. If the Devils can land one of these players, then there’s nothing more to talk about.

In the end, it was a disappointing Tuesday in May. We got knocked down today, but we’re not out. Duke has a solid team next year. If a couple players can really develop into the players we had hoped they be (Nolan, anyone?), then a Final Four trip is not out of the question.

Until I see who stays in the NBA draft and who comes back for other teams, I won’t make any predictions, but Duke is certainly a top-15 team, maybe top-10. Look for the ACC title to be wide open, with Carolina and Duke again competing with Wake (if Teague comes back) and Clemson. However, watch out for Florida State. They are my mid-range sleeper who could sneak up and take down the big boys.

Duke: It's "Wall" or Nothing

rob murray — Wed, 06 May 2009 14:49:29 -0400

It’s official now, Duke gets John Wall, or they can kiss any title run goodbye next season. Yes, he’s that important.

Today, point guard Eric Bledsoe, picked the Kentucky Wildcats, leaving John Wall the last solid point guard still uncommitted. A while back, we talked about whether the Duke coaching staff was making a mistake going after one-and-done Wall over Bledsoe (assuming he could qualify). Sure Wall is a lot better and can step right in and make an impact, but Bledsoe isn't half bad either.

The 6-1 point guard from Alabama is a pass-first guard, who knows how to get into the lane (something Duke clearly needs now). He nearly averaged a triple-double in high school: 20.3 points, 11.5 assists, and 9.4 rebounds per game. Whether he could have led Duke to a championship this season is surely questionable, but it would be hard to argue against the fact that he would have been the best point man from day one.

This leaves John Wall. Obviously, there are concerns about his recent run-in with the law, but trust me, it’s not a big deal. It appears he and some friends entered a vacant house, looking for a place to hang out with some ladies.

While I think Bledsoe to Kentucky helps the Blue Devils in the John Wall recruiting saga, my personal opinion has always been that wherever Calipari landed, that’s where Wall would end up…and that hasn’t changed.

Sadly, I can see Calipari convincing Bledsoe that a year on the bench behind Wall would be good, allowing him to take over the point guard duties in 2010 after Wall leaves for the NBA. I can see Coach Cal convincing Wall of this scenario as well.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do, but after seeing Duke get burned by top-notch talent the last few years, I’m not confident the coaching staff can close the deal.

Having said that, I still believe that it would be a smart thing for John Wall to come to Duke. First, he’ll start from day one for a veteran team and he’ll get to compete for the title now. Second, he’ll be on television nearly every game. Third, there is no better uniform to wear to improve his slightly battered image.

Let’s hope and let’s pray, because if Henderson decides the NBA is the right way (that’s where I’d put my money), Duke will have no true point guards next season, and only three guards total (Scheyer, Smith and Williams).

Irresponsible Journalism at its Finest

rob murray — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 00:35:29 -0400

Today, I stumbled across an article on the Huffington Post, where some guy named Chris Kyle (nope, never heard of him either), accused Grant Hill of being a doper (nope, I’m not kidding). You see, after battling a bad ankle over the years, Grant Hill played in all 82 games this season, the first time since his days in Detroit.

From the Huffington Post:

How?

How does a 36-year-old man play in all 82 regular season games and do it in style, finishing his final game with 27 points, 10 board, five assists, four steals, and a block?

If I were hoping, I’d say that Grant Hill is an Outlier, straight from the pages of Malcolm Gladwell, but if I were betting, well, you get the idea…

I don’t like to think about Grant Hill taking HGH, or whatever else, because he’s always been one of my favorite Blue Devils. I say that because some people might think it’s unfair for me to the raise the performance-enhancing drugs issue with a guy like Hill. I don’t know. But I do know that my friends and I sit around and talk about stuff like this.

This might be the most irresponsible article I have ever read on the Huffington Post? Seriously. I read that site more than any other on the web and I still can’t believe I came across this filth.

Without a trace of proof, without a single whisper from a single source, this person can simply write an article on one of the most popular news sites, linking Grant Hill to HGH, just because he can’t believe Grant Hill can do it?

Chris’s so-called proof is that Grant Hill played in all 82 games this season after suffering through injuries throughout the latter half of his career? Is it really that amazing? Let’s look back.

In Grant Hill’s first six years in Detroit, he was one of the NBA’s best. He scored 9,383 points, grabbed 3,417 rebounds and dished out 2,720 assists. Only Larry Bird and Oscar Robertson produced better numbers in their first six years.

Then came the trade to Orlando and the health issues. Granted, it wasn’t a rash of injuries, it was just one bad ankle, followed by many failed attempts to fix it. Because of this ankle, Grant Hill played in only 48 games in a four-year stretch from 2000-2004.

After taking a full year to recover in 2004, he came back and played 67 games. The following year though, he only played in 21 games thanks to a hernia injury caused by the fact that he was still favoring one ankle.

After that season, Hill went and saw a new specialist in Vancouver. The treatment appeared to help, although it wasn’t an instant recovery (you know, the kind a player usually gets when he’s using HGH). Hill came out and played in a respectable 65 games, along with a trip to the playoffs that season.

Following 2006-2007 season, Grant went to Phoenix. His ankle held up again and he played in over 70 games. He did miss two weeks because he suffered an emergency appendectomy. And finally this season, he played a full 82, although his stats were his lowest in years.

So after seeing all this, Chris Kyle things, but hopes it’s not true, that Grant Hill used HGH. Stunning.

What do I see? A player who had a bum ankle, who slowly, year after year, worked his way back to complete health. But wait, Chris says 36-year-old players are suppose to break down at that age.

Obviously, Chris doesn’t take into account that when Grant missed all those games, his body avoided the NBA beat-down in 280 games during that stretch.

So maybe, just maybe, it’s reasonable to assume that if Grant Hill’s ankle got stronger and stronger over a three-year period, then he could somehow manage 82 games in one season. Is it really that much of a stretch? The guy comes off the bench, averaging under 30 minutes per game. Can HGH be the only way?

Again though, this isn’t a post about Grant Hill and HGB. Like I already said, there’s not a single ounce of evidence linking Grant to the drug or to anyone associated with HGB.

And unlike Chris, when I know a person has been a class act his whole life and has never done anything in his career or life to tarnish the game he loves, guess what…he gets the automatic benefit of the doubt in my book.

This article is about Chris Kyle though, who despite getting a top-notch education at Duke University, just doesn’t get it. What was that award winning reasoning he had again:

I don’t like to think about Grant Hill taking HGH, or whatever else, because he’s always been one of my favorite Blue Devils. I say that because some people might think it’s unfair for me to the raise the performance-enhancing drugs issue with a guy like Hill. I don’t know. But I do know that my friends and I sit around and talk about stuff like this.

No Chris, no one thinks it’s unfair to write a B.S. article about Grant Hill because you like the guy. My issue is the fact that you get to use the Huffington Post to post a "gut feeling" simply because you and your friends “sit around and talk about stuff like this.”

Discussing Grant Hill and drug use without a shred of evidence with your friends IS the proper forum. Trashing a great NBA player and a good guy with no proof whatsoever in a national news site is slander.

It’s no different if I wrote that Chris Kyle’s mother was a whore, who sleeps with men for money. That would be wrong. Sure I can sit around with my buddies and debate the merits of the whoring mother of Chris Kyle, but to post it on this site would be wrong, no matter how much my gut says it so.

I shouldn’t do it because I don’t have any proof that she works the streets for money.

Just imagine the possibilities if I used his logic.
- Tyler Hansbrough uses HGH. My friends talk about it all the time. Look at his body, he’s built. I have no proof, but I’m just saying.
- Crying causes Cancer. Again, I have no proof, but a friend and I were talking about it yesterday.
- When the Tar Heels win, a baby dies. Sure I’ve never seen it happen. But come on, at one point in this world a puppy had to die when Carolina won. It just makes sense, right?

That’s really all I can say about it. A classless article by a clueless writer. Huffington Post, if you’re looking for a real writer, let me know, my neighbor’s kid is pretty good at making shit up out of thin air.

BART STARR, BRETT FAVRE, GREG PAULUS?

rob murray — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 11:32:45 -0400

Pro Football Talk is reporting that former Duke point guard, Greg Paulus has worked out for the Green Bay Packers.

Really?

I know Greg was a football star in high school and could have played at Notre Dame, but was he really so good that he could basically take four years off and suddenly land on an NFL roster? It’s not like Paulus has a Tim Tebow build. He’s 6′1, about a buck-eighty. He’s Pat White without speed. I figured Paulus would be roaming a sideline somewhere as an assistant basketball coach.

As best as I can tell, the Packers already have Aaron Rogers, LSU’s Matt Flynn, Louisville’s Brian Brohm. I just can’t see Paulus betting out any of these guys for a third-string job.

Gerald Henderson Going Pro?

rob murray — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:12:14 -0400

Word on the street says that Duke forward, Gerald Henderson, is leaving college for the NBA...and he will be signing with an agent?

Gerald Henderson is also expected to announce he’s leaving college shortly, and is expected to hire an agent with strong ties to Duke.

WTF? I get the declaring yourelf eligible for the NBA, but why sign with an agent? Any reasonable junior would declare so they can go workout with NBA scouts in Chicago.

There he can be evaluate by the brightest minds in the NBA (much like Ellington, Green and Lawson did last year). Afterwards is when you make that final decision whether to return or not. If you decide not to, then you hire an agent.

This rumor doesn’t make a lot of sense. There’s is no harm in not hiring an agent now. However, as soon as he hires one, his college career is over, whether he bombs during the workouts or not.

We’ve said it before, we think Henderson is going to be a solid pro (assuming he remains healthy), but he needs more work.

He still struggles to drive to his left, especially against real athletes and he doesn’t have NBA (three-point) range yet, which he’ll need since he’s only 6'4" and will be asked to play shooting guard.

Carolina, Classless as Always

rob murray — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 21:16:41 -0400

Congratulations to the 2008-2009 North Carolina Tar Heels. They were a great team and they had a hell of a tournament run. I hate the Tar Heels, but you can’t deny them their props.

However, former Tar Holes remain classless like always.

Even in their team’s finest moment, they still can only think of us. How sweet.

For the record, Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Julius Peppers (in football) and Makhtar Ndiaye (holding the sign) produced a total of ZERO championships for North Carolina. Yep, that’s ZERO titles.

As for Ndiaye, it must have been nice to see some real players step up in the big moment. He wouldn’t know it from experience of course. In his one Final Four appearance, he started for a Carolina team that was upset by Utah. His game stats…ZERO points (0-3 shooting), two rebounds and five fouls.

If he still doesn’t ring a bell, as a commentator below reminded me, he was the disgraced Tar Heel who lied after the Utah defeat, claiming a white UTAH player called him racist names, and then admitted afterwards he made it all up.

He’s also the guy who, after his career at UNC ended, was arrested for attacking/beating/choking a ‘friend’ who gave him a ride to Raleigh.

Eventually, this class act had a brief NBA career, but ended up blaming the end of it on stewardess. Yep, you read that correctly.

Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts: The Story of Two, Tall White Guys

rob murray — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 16:00:18 -0400

Today is suppose to be a good day. The weather is getting warmer, the baseball season is up and running, even the wife is getting nicer. Today though, is not a good day. Today is when North Carolina will win their second championship this decade.

Don't get me wrong, Michigan State is a fine team and they are good enough to pull off the upset, but let's not kid each other. This Carolina team is a team on a mission. They are ripping through the competition, including three easy wins over top-10 teams like Gonzaga, Oklahoma and Villanova.

I haven't seen a team breeze through the tournament this easily since the '98-99 Duke Blue Devils.

Of course, I know what you are going to say...that Duke team lost in the finals to Connecticut. You are correct, but there's a difference between that team and this team. That Duke team had only two upperclassmen (senior Langdon & junior Carrawell) who played in the team's eight-man rotation.

For the Tar Heels, six of their top seven players (based on minutes in the tournament) are either juniors or seniors. More importantly, all of them have been through this before in last year's final four.

The point of all this is not to predict a winner in tonight's championship game. We've tried this whole "predicting" thing and it hasn't worked out well for us.

Instead, when I watch this Carolina club tonight, I can only think back to the incoming recruiting class in the summer of 2005, particularly Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts.

Now let's be clear, a single player doesn't make a team. Hell, you can easily argue that Hansbrough is only the 4th best player on his team and the '06 Carolina class that brought in Lawson and Ellington was more important.

However, when you look at how the fate of Duke and Carolina has flipped-flopped this decade, no two players better represent what went right for the Tar Heels and what went wrong for the Blue Devils.

Both McRoberts and Hansbrough were five-star power forwards. McRoberts was a little taller, a little wider and was rated number one in the country at PF (No 2 overall). Hansbrough was a little quicker, with a motor that wouldn't quit. He was rated fourth among power forwards and No 10 overall.

He would get a year to develop as a solid role player for the nations best team. For Hansbrough, there was no breathing room.

His Carolina team had just won the title the year before and they would head into '05-'06 with their top eight scorers gone. Tyler was Carolina's No. 1 recruit and he would need to step into that leadership role quickly.

In their first meeting, the (21-1) Devils got the best of the (14-5) Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, and McRoberts had a big game, scoring 17 points on 6-8 shooting. Hansbrough had a decent 14 points and nine rebounds in a losing effort.

In a way, it was Hansbrough's coming out party. He dominated the paint with 27 points (9-17 shooting) and 10 rebounds. McRoberts barely showed up, scoring four points and grabbing a single rebound.

The season would end early for both teams. The Tar Heels were victims of the George Mason Cinderella run (falling in the second round), while Duke was stopped by LSU in the Sweet 16.

In season two, all eyes were on the two big men on Tobacco Road. Tyler was the ACC rookie of the year, while Josh finished 2005, scoring ten double-double's in his last fourteen games.

Both McRoberts and Hansbrough would be leading even younger squads (both teams would start three freshman), so the fate of their respected programs would be on their shoulders.

While both had solid stats for the season (Hansbrough: 18/8, McRoberts 13/8), Hansbrough clearly showed he was up for the challenge, McRoberts didn't.

Tyler became the unquestionable leader of a Carolina team that would roll through the regular season and miss the Final Four by a game (an Elite Eight defeat to Georgetown), while McRoberts couldn't adapt to his role as leader. More often than not, when Duke needed a go-to player, he failed.

-In Duke's first game against a ranked opponent, McRoberts hit only 4-16 shots from the floor in a loss to Marquette.

- In a two-point defeat in overtime to the Hokies, McRoberts failed to make a shot in the final 4:48.

- In a nine-point defeat to Georgia Tech, Duke's 'best' player took only ten shots.

- In a two-point defeat to Virgina (the beginning of a four-game losing streak), Josh would not make a shot in the final eight plus minutes. His final miss would have given Duke the lead with a minute to go in overtime. He finished 7-18 for the day.

- In a one-point loss at home to FSU, McRoberts missed a game winner with six seconds on the clock. He finished with only 12 points, taking only three total shots in the final 13 minutes.

- In a home loss to North Carolina, McRoberts fell apart. He took only five shots, scoring six points and missing his only two free-throw attempts. Hansbrough had a solid 16/6 on 5-9 shooting.

- In Duke's second defeat to Maryland, Josh hit only 5-13 shots, scoring 10. He took ZERO free throws.

- In the second meeting with Carolina, McRoberts scored nine points, grabbing 10 boards, but failed to take a single shot in the final 11 minutes. During that same stretch, Hansbrough scored 10 points to wrap up Carolina's sweep of Duke.

- And finally, in the first round loss to VCU, McRoberts actually had a decent game; 22 points, 12 boards, however, he missed two of four free throws in the final 1:41. If he makes them both, the game ends differently.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm nitpicking stats in Duke defeats from three years ago, but I just remember watching that year and thinking, Hansbrough is becoming a star while McRoberts always seem to shrink in the moments the team needed him to be a man and hit big shots.

He always looked like a guy who regretted not going pro and was seeing his draft status fall further and further down as the season went on.

After the dust settle, McRoberts was out-of-there, Hansbrough won the head-to-head battle, 3-1 (including the final three). Josh wasn't drafted until Portland took him with the 38th pick.

A bit disappointing considering he was a mid-to-late first rounder the year before. He has spent most of his time bouncing back and forth from the big leagues to the D league. This season, he's averaging two points and two boards, playing under eight minutes per game for Indiana Pacers.

As for Hansbrough, I think we all know what he's done; most career free throw in NCAA history, the ACC all-time leading scorer, his jersey was retired by Carolina, four-time All-ACC player, the 2008 National Player of the year, 6-2 record against Duke, including 4-0 at Cameron...I could go on and on and on and on, but I won't because it makes me sick.

Most importantly though, he's taking his team to the Final Four two straight years and with a win tonight, will hand Carolina another championship.

It's simple...one player will go down as one of college basketball's greatest players, the other...will be completely forgotten in 10 years.

And while I'm sure greatness will swing back to Duke soon enough (and then back to Carolina, and then back to Duke), if you want to know why the Tar Heels rule Tobacco Road right now in 2009, look no further than the two tall white guys recruited in 2005.

So as I sit down to tonight, sliding on my fictional Michigan State hat, screaming at the top of my lungs for a Carolina defeat, at some point in my mind, I'll be asking...hey Josh, how cold does that Indiana bench feel right now?

Hansbrough and McRoberts, the Story of Two Tall White Guys

rob murray — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 15:55:13 -0400

Don’t get me wrong, Michigan State is a fine team and they are good enough to pull off the upset, but let’s not kid each other. This Carolina team is a team on a mission. They are ripping through the competition, including three easy wins over top-ten teams like Gonzaga, Oklahoma and Villanova. I haven’t seen a team breeze through the tournament this easily since the ‘98-’99 Duke Blue Devils.

Of course, I know what you are going to say…that Duke team lost in the finals to Connecticut. You are correct, but there’s a difference between that team and this team. That Duke team had only two upperclassmen (senior Langdon & junior Carrawell) who played in the team’s eight-man rotation. For the Tar Heels, six of their top seven players (based on minutes in the tournament) are either juniors or seniors. More importantly, all of them have been through this before in last year’s final four.

The point of all this is not to predict a winner in tonight’s championship game. We’ve tried this whole ‘predicting’ thing and it hasn’t worked out well for us. Instead, when I watch this Carolina club tonight, I can only think back to the incoming recruiting class in the summer of 2005, particularly Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts.

Now let’s be clear, a single player doesn’t make a team. Hell, you can easily argue that Hansbrough is only the 4th best player on his team and the ‘06 Carolina class that brought in Lawson and Ellington was more important. However, when you look at how the fate of Duke and Carolina has flipped-flopped this decade, no two players better represent what went right for the Tar Heels and what went wrong for the Blue Devils.

Both McRoberts and Hansbrough were five-star power forwards. McRoberts was a little taller, a little wider and was rated number one in the country at PF (No 2 overall). Hansbrough was a little quicker, with a motor that wouldn’t quit. He was rated fourth among power forwards and No 10 overall.

Heading into their freshman years, McRoberts actually had it easier. While he was the extra size the Blue Devils desperately needed, he was never going to be asked to lead the team, not with seniors, Redick and Sheldon on the floor. He would get a year to develop as a solid role player for the nations best team. For Hansbrough, there was no breathing room. His Carolina team had just won the title the year before and they would head into ‘05-’06 with their top eight scorers gone. Tyler was Carolina’s number one recruit and he would need to step into that leadership role quickly.

However, North Carolina and Hansbrough were getting better and by the time the two teams faced off in the final game of the regular season. The Tar Heels were able to pull of the amazing upset to ruin senior night for Redick and Williams. In a way, it was Hansbrough’s coming out party. He dominated the paint with 27 points (9-17 shooting) and 10 rebounds. McRoberts barely showed up, scoring four points and grabbing a single rebound.

The season would end early for both teams. The Tar Heels were victims of the George Mason Cinderella run (falling in the second round), while Duke was stopped by LSU in the Sweet 16.

In season two, all eyes were on the two big men on Tobacco Road. Tyler was the ACC rookie of the year, while Josh finished 2005, scoring ten double-double’s in his last fourteen games. Both McRoberts and Hansbrough would be leading even younger squads (both teams would start three freshman), so the fate of their respected programs would be on their shoulders.

While both had solid stats for the season (Hansbrough: 18/8, McRoberts 13/8), Hansbrough clearly showed he was up for the challenge, McRoberts didn’t. Tyler became the unquestionable leader of a Carolina team that would roll through the regular season and miss the Final Four by a game (an Elite Eight defeat to Georgetown), while McRoberts couldn’t adapt to his role as leader. More often than not, when Duke needed a go-to player, he failed.

-In Duke’s first game against a ranked opponent, McRoberts hit only 4-16 shots from the floor in a loss to Marquette.
- In a two-point defeat in overtime to the Hokies, McRoberts failed to make a shot in the final 4:48.
- In a nine-point defeat to Georgia Tech, Duke’s ‘best’ player took only ten shots.
- In a two-point defeat to Virgina (the beginning of a four-game losing streak), Josh would not make a shot in the final eight plus minutes. His final miss would have given Duke the lead with a minute to go in overtime. He finished 7-18 for the day.
- In a one-point loss at home to FSU, McRoberts missed a game winner with six seconds on the clock. He finished with only 12 points, taking only three total shots in the final 13 minutes.
- In a home loss to North Carolina, McRoberts fell apart. He took only five shots, scoring six points and missing his only two free throw attempts. Hansbrough had a solid 16/6 on 5-9 shooting.
- In Duke’s second defeat to Maryland, Josh hit only 5-13 shots, scoring ten. He took ZERO free throws.
- In the second meeting with Carolina, McRoberts scored nine points, grabbing 10 boards, but failed to take a single shot in the final 11 minutes. During that same stretch, Hansbrough scored 10 points to wrap up Carolina’s sweep of Duke.
- And finally, in the first round loss to VCU, McRoberts actually had a decent game; 22 points, 12 boards, however, he missed two of four free throws in the final 1:41. If he makes them both, the game ends differently.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m nitpicking stats in Duke defeats from three years ago, but I just remember watching that year and thinking, Hansbrough is becoming a star while McRoberts always seem to shrink in the moments the team needed him to be a man and hit big shots. He always looked like a guy who regretted not going pro and was seeing his draft status fall further and further down as the season went on.

After the dust settle, McRoberts was out-of-there, Hansbrough won the head-to-head battle, 3-1 (including the final three). Josh wasn’t drafted until Portland took him with the 38th pick. A bit disappointing considering he was a mid-to-late first rounder the year before. He has spent most of his time bouncing back and forth from the big leagues to the D league. This season he’s averaging two points and two boards, playing under eight minutes per game for Indiana Pacers.

As for Hansbrough, I think we all know what he’s done; most career free throw in NCAA history, the ACC all-time leading scorer, his jersey was retired by Carolina, four-time All-ACC player, the 2008 National Player of the year, 6-2 record against Duke, including 4-0 at Cameron…I could go on and on and on and on, but I won’t because it makes me sick.

Most importantly though, he’s taking his team to the Final Four two straight years and with a win tonight, will hand Carolina another championship.

It’s simple…one player will go down as one of college basketball’s greatest players, the other…will be completely forgotten in ten years. And while I’m sure greatness will swing back to Duke soon enough (and then back to Carolina, and then back to Duke), if you want to know why the Tar Heels rule Tobacco Road right now in 2009, look no further than the two tall white guys recruited in 2005.

So as I sit down to tonight, sliding on my fictional Michigan State hat, screaming at the top of my lungs for a Carolina defeat, at some point in my mind, I’ll be asking…hey Josh, how cold does that Indiana bench feel right now?

Blue Devils Up Against a (John) Wall

rob murray — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:55:47 -0400

If you've been paying attention (and we always assume you have), you are fully aware that point guard John Wall, the top rated high school player in the nation (our nation, in case you were unsure) visited our beloved Duke Blue Devil's coaching staff this past Sunday.

This of course was not Wall's first stop on campus, but it was the first time the top rated point guard and Coach Krzyzewski sat face-to-face to discuss his possible role on the 2009-10 Blue Devils.

Of course, if you're a Duke fan, you didn't even have to be in the room to know what was said. Duke is a good team, with plenty of talent along the wings, but lacks both a legit big man in the middle and an athletic point guard who can run the show and penetrate through the lane (keeping the opponent's PG out on the defensive end).

Mr. Wall would naturally be a perfect fit. He could be the next Jason Williams, who led Duke to the 2001 championship.

While Coach K officially offered up a scholarship to John Wall during his visit, he will remain undecided for at least three more weeks (if not longer). While Wall has a list of five-seven teams, prior to JohnCalipari's exit from Memphis, the Tigers were always the front-runners. However, with his move to Kentucky, the situation is even muddier.

Some would argue this helps Duke's case, in fact, Wall even said as much, but think about it...why? Since Wall never committed or signed with Memphis, what keeps him from rolling to Kentucky? Hell, Calipari could potentially bring both of his big time Memphis recruits to Kentucky with him.

DeMarcus Cousins, rated second, never signed with the Tigers and Xavier Henry, rated third (who did sign), has asked for a release (and trust me, he'll get it). How good would Kentucky suddenly be with both Patterson and Meeks (assuming they return) and the top three recruits in the 2009 class? I'd have them in my top-five in week one.

Of course, experience counts for something (just look at the four Final Four teams right now) and Wall, by joining the Dukies, will be given the keys to a pretty damn good ride, with a possible lineup of Wall, Scheyer, Henderson (we're assuming), Singler, and most likely Mason Plumlee.

Coming off the bench, you're looking at Smith and Williams in the backfield, along with Zoubek, Thomas, Ryan Kelly and Miles Plumlee. With Wall running the point and Henderson returning, I could make a pretty good argument to have Duke No. 1 at the beginning of the season.

Now having said all that...is Duke making the right decision going after John Wall? It's the question of the hour for all Duke loyalist and it's an important question, so pay attention. John Wall's in no rush to make a decision.

I can't really blame him. But by waiting, Duke could get left hanging with a scholarship, and no point guard.

One little story you might have missed this weekend was Connecticut's signing of Darius Smith from Chicago. Not a bad signing considering the Huskies will probably be on probation next season.

Anyhow, Smith is the 19th best point guard coming out of high school, and more importantly, he was one of two players on Duke's radar as a potential freshman point guard. The other, Eric Bledsoe, is the 12th best point guard out of Alabama.

Both guards are strikingly similar in body and in style of play. Both are lightening quick guards, great ball handlers, with the ability to create. The difference between these two and John Wall is simply shooting. Wall is a gifted shooter and scorer, while both Bledsoe and Smith need improvement.

With Smith out of the picture, Bledsoe and Walls are it for four-star or up point guards. that's why we have to ask, by going after and waiting for a long shot like John Wall to make his decision, will Duke miss out on Bledsoe? And a more important question...is it worth the risk?

Wall is a amazing talent and he appears to be a good kid (don't be fooled by his three high schools in five years. Those were basketball decisions and when you are this talented, you can do that).

He could be lightning in a bottle for an experienced Duke team next year, but we can't forget...he's a one-and-done. He's already said it, there's no question about it.

The Duke coaching staff is in a tight spot, knowing that if Wall passes, Bledsoe might not be there afterwards.

Then we spend the rest of the summer eating cheese steaks at 99 Miles From Philly, gawking at young ladies from a safe distance, and trying to figure out how good can the Blue Devils be with a backfield consisting of only Scheyer, Smith, and Williams.

That's the risk...Eric Bledsoe won't be there when Wall makes up his mind. You see, the kid from Alabama grew up a Duke fan, but the coaching staff was johnny-come-lately and only recently started to chase him.

Now I firmly believe that if Duke offered him up a scholarship today, he'd take it yesterday (assuming he can qualify, which could be a potential problem). However, the Blue Devils haven't offered him up a scholarship, because they're saving it for Wall.

Currently, four teams have offered a scholarship to Bledsoe, UAB, Rutgers, Kentucky, and Florida. Also, with former VCU head coach, Anthony Grant, now running the show at Alabama, I wouldn't be too surprised if the Tide don't take another look at him.

Of all these offers, the biggest threat is probably Florida. Billy Donovan has owned Coach K in '09 recruiting, landing both Erik Murphy and Kenny Boynton, two players who were high on Duke's list.

Of course I didn't think the Gators were a real threat for Bledsoe because they already have a solid point guard in sophomore Nick Calathes. However, he has declared himself eligible for the upcoming NBA draft (although he will not sign with an agent), so I wouldn't be surprised if Coach Donovan doesn't start to light a fire under Bledsoe.

So the question remains, does Coach Krzyzewski roll the dice and hope to land a stud like Wall, who could be the final piece in a championship puzzle, or does he go after a solid point man like Bledsoe, who's skills aren't in the same league as Wall, but still could start at the point for Duke starting tomorrow (and do a fine job)?

Man, that's one long question. Here's an easier way to ask it; would you take Jason Williams for one year, or Chris Duhon for four?

My gut (and my gut has been wrong so often before) is that Walls will follow Calipari to Kentucky. The change in address will have no impact. In fact, Wall's has already stated:

From Rivals:

"Kind of, basically would eliminate Memphis, and I would look into Kentucky," said Wall, a 6-foot-4, 184-pound point guard from Raleigh (N.C.) Word of God Christian Academy. "I wouldn't rush into anything. I did want to play for Coach Calipari. And if I had committed to Memphis, he is the coach I wanted to play for."

Hopefully for our sake, Eric Bledsoe will still be available.

Blue Devils Up Against a (John) Wall

rob murray — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:50:30 -0400

If you’ve been paying attention (and we always assume you have), you are fully aware that point guard John Wall (right), the top rated high school player in the nation (our nation, in case you were unsure) visited our beloved Duke Blue Devil’s coaching staff this past Sunday. This of course was not Wall’s first stop on campus, but it was the first time the top rated point guard and Coach Krzyzewski sat face-to-face to discuss his possible role on the 2009-10 Blue Devils.

Of course, if you’re a Duke fan, you didn’t even have to be in the room to know what was said. Duke is a good team, with plenty of talent along the wings, but lacks both a legit big man in the middle and an athletic point guard who can run the show and penetrate through the lane (keeping the opponent’s PG out on the defensive end). Mr. Wall would naturally be a perfect fit. He could be the next Jason Williams, who led Duke to the 2001 championship.

While Coach K officially offered up a scholarship to John Wall during his visit, he will remain undecided for at least three more weeks (if not longer). While Wall has a list of five-seven teams, prior to John Calipari’s exit from Memphis, the Tigers were always the front-runners. However, with his move to Kentucky, the situation is even muddier.

Some would argue this helps Duke’s case, in fact, Wall even said as much, but think about it…why? Since Wall never committed or signed with Memphis, what keeps him from rolling to Kentucky? Hell, Calipari could potentially bring both of his big time Memphis recruits to Kentucky with him. DeMarcus Cousins, rated 2nd, never signed with the Tigers and Xavier Henry, rated 3rd (who did sign), has asked for a release (and trust me, he’ll get it). How good would Kentucky suddenly be with both Patterson and Meeks (assuming they return) and the top three recruits in the 2009 class? I’d have them in my top-five in week one.

Of course, experience counts for something (just look at the four Final Four teams right now) and Wall, by joining the Dukies, will be given the keys to a pretty damn good ride, with a possible lineup of Wall, Scheyer, Henderson (we’re assuming), Singler and most likely Mason Plumlee. Coming off the bench, you’re looking at Smith and Williams in the backfield, along with Zoubek, Thomas, Ryan Kelly and Miles Plumlee. With Wall running the point and Henderson returning, I could make a pretty good argument to have Duke #1 at the beginning of the season.

Now having said all that…is Duke making the right decision going after John Wall? It’s the question of the hour for all Duke loyalist and it’s an important question, so pay attention. John Wall’s in no rush to make a decision. I can’t really blame him. But by waiting, Duke could get left hanging with a scholarship, and no point guard.

One little story you might have missed this weekend was Connecticut’s signing of Darius Smith from Chicago. Not a bad signing considering the Huskies will probably be on probation next season. Anyhow, Smith is the 19th best point guard coming out of high school, and more importantly, he was one of two players on Duke’s radar as a potential freshman point guard. The other, Eric Bledsoe, is the 12th best point guard out of Alabama.

With Smith out of the picture, Bledsoe (left) and Walls are it for 4-star or up point guards. that’s why we have to ask, by going after and waiting for a long shot like John Wall to make his decision, will Duke miss out on Bledsoe? And a more important question…is it worth the risk?

Wall is a amazing talent and he appears to be a good kid (don’t be fooled by his three high schools in five years. Those were basketball decisions and when you are this talented, you can do that). He could be lightening in a bottle for an experienced Duke team next year, but we can’t forget…he’s a one-and-done. He’s already said it, there’s no question about it.

The Duke coaching staff is in a tight spot, knowing that if Wall passes, Bledsoe might not be there afterwards and then we spend the rest of the summer eating cheese steaks at 99 Miles From Philly, gawking at young ladies from a safe distance, and trying to figure out how good can the Blue Devils be with a backfield consisting of only Scheyer, Smith and Williams.

That’s the risk…Eric Bledsoe won’t be there when Wall makes up his mind. You see, the kid from Alabama grew up a Duke fan, but the coaching staff was johnny-come-lately and only recently started to chase him. Now I firmly believe that if Duke offered him up a scholarship today, he’d take it yesterday (assuming he can qualify, which could be a potential problem). However, the Blue Devils haven’t offered him up a scholarship, because they’re saving it for Wall.

Currently, four teams have offered a scholarship to Bledsoe, UAB, Rutgers, Kentucky and Florida. Also, with former VCU head coach, Anthony Grant, now running the show at Alabama, I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Tide don’t take another look at him.

Of all these offers, the biggest threat is probably Florida. Billy Donovan has owned Coach K in ‘09 recruiting, landing both Erik Murphy and Kenny Boynton, two players who were high on Duke’s list. Of course I didn’t think the Gators were a real threat for Bledsoe because they already have a solid point guard in sophomore Nick Calathes. However, he has declared himself eligible for the upcoming NBA draft (although he will not sign with an agent), so I wouldn’t be surprised if Coach Donovan doesn’t start to light a fire under Bledsoe.

So the question remains, does Coach Kryzewski roll the dice and hope to land a stud like Wall, who could be the final piece in a championship puzzle, or does he go after a solid point man like Bledsoe, who’s skills aren’t in the same league as Wall, but still could start at the point for Duke starting tomorrow (and do a fine job)? Man, that’s one long question. Here’s an easier way to ask it; would you take Jason Williams for one year, or Chris Duhon for four?

My gut (and my gut has been wrong so often before) is that Walls will follow Calipari to Kentucky. The change in address will have no impact. In fact, Wall’s has already stated:

From Rivals:

“Kind of, basically would eliminate Memphis, and I would look into Kentucky,” said Wall, a 6-foot-4, 184-pound point guard from Raleigh (N.C.) Word of God Christian Academy. “I wouldn’t rush into anything. I did want to play for Coach Calipari. And if I had committed to Memphis, he is the coach I wanted to play for.”

Hopefully for our sake, Eric Bledsoe will still be available.

It's Recruiting, Stupid

rob murray — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 23:44:06 -0400

It’s been four days and I can finally allow myself back onto my own site. After a blowout defeat by Villanova, I needed to take a break—sit back, relax, and let results of that game and this season sink in. Now I’m fresh and ready to look back at what we saw and what we can expect in the future.

On the morning of black Friday, the biggest question being asked was a simple one; was Duke a fraud? The answer is NO.

To be a fraud, you have to come up short of what everyone thought you would achieve. Almost all experts predicted Duke to lose to Villanova. If you had Duke going to the Final Four in your bracket, then you’re an idiot. The Wildcats really were that much better. Just ask Pittsburgh.

Duke won 30 games this season, playing the toughest schedule in all of basketball and won the ACC tournament. Not bad. However, everyone knew that when it came time to face elite teams, the Devils could be stopped.

Everyone keeps talking about how this is the fifth year in a row where Duke has lost to a lower seed, but let’s get serious people…a two seed losing to a three seed is not an upset. Duke was a good team—not a great team.

Post-game, Coach K was blunt about what the problem was. Duke was playing 5 on 3 basketball. The Devils couldn’t compete at this level without a post-presence and a athletic point guard, who can get into the lane.

All across the World Wide Web, everyone had an opinion. Coach K won’t go after one-and-done players. Coach was too busy with the Olympic team. Coach is too stubborn relying on the three-point shot. It’s the same story for the past five years.

However, none of this is (completely) true. The reality is...first, Coach K has never said he won’t recruit one-and-done players. Never. He’s said he doesn’t support the rule, but the Duke coaching staff has gone after (and failed to get) plenty of the elite high school players, including a handful of one-and-done players; many who were big men.

Secondly, Duke relies on three-point shooting because that’s what they’ve landed in recruiting. We’ve talked about it plenty of times on this site. Duke went after the third ranked PF, Patrick Patterson. He was a possible one-and-done (before he got hurt his freshman year). He picked Kentucky.

Duke went after the No. 1 ranked PF, Greg Monroe, but he picked Georgetown. Hell, Duke went after big-man (11th ranked PF) Gregory Echenique, who ended up picking Rutgers over Duke. Any of these three would have made a significant difference in the paint for the Devils this season.

This is what it comes down to: RECRUITING.

If you want a reason for Duke’s struggles (by the way, it’s a little disturbing we use the word ’struggle’ for a 30-win team, but that’s Duke for you) just take a look at this season’s senior class; Greg Paulus, Martynas Pocius and David McClure. All three were huge disappointments if you judge them based on their high school rankings (for the purpose of this article, we’ll use Rivals rankings).

Paulus was the No. 1 rated point guard coming out of college. Pocius was the 16th rated shooting guard and McClure was the 13th rated small forward. All three ended their final seasons as bench players, with only McClure playing important minutes late in games.

While you can’t overestimate McClure’s heart and guts on the court, all three have to be considered major disappointments. Pocius could never get healthy or figure out the concept of defending, while Paulus (expected to be the next Bobby Hurley) got worse and worse after a decent freshman campaign.

Again, you can’t question his heart either, but he just didn’t have the talent to play at this level. It was sort of depressing to watch all three of them playing mop up duty at the end of the Villanova blowout.

Sadly, disappointing recruiting results have become the common theme for the 21st Century Blue Devils. Don’t get me wrong, every team has top-notch recruits that don’t pan out. Duke is no exception, but since 2002, it’s been a little bit too common.

When a team wraps up a recruitment class, in all honesty, you’re really hoping to land one star, one starter and one solid bench player. If you do better than this, you’re going to be a title contender. Now looking back at Duke’s recruiting, their classes are ranked at or near the top every year, but the recruiting results have not lived up the recruiting rankings.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS’ RECRUITING RANKINGS SINCE 2005 (Rivals only goes back to ‘05):
2005 - Ranked 2nd
2006 - Ranked 4th
2007 - Ranked 6th
2008 - Ranked 13th
2009 - Ranked 9th

While the rankings have fallen every year, when your worse year is 13th, your team should be pretty damn good. However, when you dig deeper, you see what’s gone wrong.

2002 - (PG-6) Sean Dockery, (SG-2) J.J. Redick, (SF-NR) Lee Melchionni, (PF-6) Shavlik Randolph, (PF-3) Sheldon Williams, (C-5) Mike Thompson.

With Duke expecting to lose Jason Williams, Boozer and Dunleavy, the Devils went out and grabbed six players. Looking at those six, do you think Coach K wasn’t looking for size? He landed the third and sixth best power forwards and the fifth best Center.

While Redick and Williams became one of the best inside-out duos in the country, Thompson played two seasons for Duke before transferring to Northwestern, where he could be found stuck on the bench more often than not.

Randolph struggled with injuries in his short Duke career, but his play off the bench was a big reason Duke made it to the Final Four in 2004. However, like William Avery before him and Josh McRoberts after him, he thought he was more talented than he was, and bolted to the NBA.

In the end, the 2002 class was a successful one. By their senior season, three were starting, two were stars (Redick and Williams) and even Melchionni could hit some threes from the bench. However, unless your Michigan’s fab five, one solid season’s of recruitment doesn’t make you elite team.

2003 - (SF-1) Luol Deng
After landing six players the year before, Duke only grabbed one in ‘03, but he was a good one. In fact, he was the best player on the 2004 Final Four team. Unfortunately, Luol was a one-hit wonder, leaving for the NBA (along with Randolph) after his freshman campaign.

If he would have stayed for at least two more years, who knows what could have been.

Note: Duke was one of three schools that Lebron James had on his short list, but no serious person can think that he would have ever played with the Devils.

2004 - (PG-1) Shaun Livingston, (SF-13) David McClure, (SG-5) DeMarcus Nelson
For the second straight year, Duke landed the No. 1 player at a position, but unlike Deng (who gave Duke at least one year), Livingston skipped college all together. The loss of Livingston hurt.

First, when Shaun made his decision, it was too late for Duke to fill the scholarship. It was the equivalent of a superstar being on your roster and not playing a single minute.

Second, he could have been the difference. Remember, Duke went to the Sweet 16 riding just Redick and Williams that season. Just imagine what they could have done with a starting lineup of Livingston, Reddick, Deng, Williams and Randolph (the smallest player would have been 6′4" Redick).

The other two players were of course McClure and Nelson. Both finished their careers at Duke, but both constantly suffered through nagging injuries throughout their years on campus. Only Nelson was able to get through it and be a star by the time he was a senior.

2005 - (SG-16) Martynas Pocius, (C-3) Eric Boateng, (PF-20) Jamal Boykin, (PF-1) Josh McRoberts, (PG-1) Greg Paulus.
After two years of not landing a big man, the Duke coaching staff brought in two power forwards (including the top rated McRoberts) and the 3rd rated Center (Boateng).

However, if you really want to see why Duke struggled THIS year to advance to the final four, you have to point the finger at this class. This was suppose to be Duke’s ‘08-’09 senior season.

Of the five, NONE, finished their final year at Duke as a starter. In fact, all three big men failed to make it to their junior years.

McRoberts was a decent player, but was never comfortable as the go-to guy, so he jumped (too early) to the NBA. Boateng played one season, before leaving for Arizona State, where he averaged under two points a game this past season for the Sun Devils.

Like Boateng, Boykin played one season and left. He went to California and started this season, averaged about nine points and six rebounds per game.

This season’s results can be traced back to this recruiting class. This was the No. 2 ranked class, with two guys ranked No. 1 at their position, as well as the No. 3 center.

There is no other word to use for this class but…FLOP.

Just look at the other teams…the No. 1 rated class that year? Kansas, who won the championship last season. Carolina? The fourth best class, back in the Final Four again. Louisville, a senior class that made it to the Elite Eight, was fifth.

Now don’t get me wrong, Duke’s class wasn’t the only flop…Oklahoma State was ranked third, but they fell in the second round this year.

Mississippi State, LSU, Arizona and Alabama were all in the top 10, but never became elite teams. Hell, NC State was 11th. However, when the Duke Blue Devils bring in five guys, they can’t go 0-5 and expect to compete with the elites.

2006 - (PF-4) Lance Thomas, (SF-5) Gerald Henderson, (C-7) Brian Zoubek, (SG-3) Jon Scheyer.

In the scheme of things, the ‘06 class was a pretty decent one. You got one star (Henderson), one starter (Scheyer) and two bench players (Zoubek or Thomas).

The problem is, because so many players have not panned out, too much has been asked of this class. They are not the 1998 class (Brand, Battier, Avery) or the 2000 class (Williams, Boozer and Dunleavy). These two classes could come in as freshman and win 25 games.

The biggest problem (as we all already know) is because so many big men left early or transferred out, players like Zoubek, Thomas and McClure were asked to fill a void they couldn’t fill.

Again, don’t get me wrong, I can never question these players’ hearts, but how the hell was Lance Thomas rated the fourth best power forward? Zoubek the seventh best center? Both would be fine bench players, but the problem is, one or the other has to start.

2007 (SF-1) Kyle Singler, (SF-15) Taylor King, (SG-7) Nolan Smith
While Singler has been better than advertised, Smith will be nothing more than a solid bench player, while King transferred out like so many other Duke big men.

2008 (PF-14) Miles Plumlee, (SG-4) Elliot Williams, (PF-30) Olek Czyz
While the ‘07 class will always have Singler, the ‘08 will not. Williams will be a good player, in fact, he’ll be similar to DeMarcus Nelson, probably better, as long as he continues to develop.

However, I just don’t get Czyz. I’m sure he’s a great kid (we know he has plenty of hop and excitement), but is he really ever going to get solid playing time? Ever? What will he be able to deliver to this team?

Plumlee has the size to one day be a solid post player off the bench, but not Olek. It’s a wasted pick and the Blue Devils are not suppose to throw away offers.

When you look at this year’s Final Four clubs you see one common thread, upperclassmen (junior and seniors) leading their teams.

Now look back at the last seven classes of Duke and what do you have? If we can assume Elliot Williams will start his final two years, Miles will be a contributing bench player and Czyz won’t be, we have:

- 4 stars
- 9 starters (including the four star players).
- 6 bench players who contributed
- 2 bench players who did not contribute
- 4 transfers
- 3 left early for the NBA
- 1 never made it to campus.

Nine out of 24 players recruited made ZERO impact for the Duke Blue Devils in their junior or senior years. That’s huge. There were only four solid stars (Redick, Sheldon, Henderson and Singler).

Of the nine who did not make it to their junior year, six of them were either power forwards or centers. This is bad. Add these numbers of disappointing recruits with the players who didn’t pick Duke (Patterson, Monroe, etc.), you can see the fall off.

Now having said ALL THAT, when we say ‘fall off’ we’re still talking about a 30 win team, who made it to the Sweet 16. What it all means is, Duke is really only a player or two away from being an elite program. So what does the future hold?

What we do know right now is that Duke does have two highly touted freshman coming in, both big men; (PF-3) Ryan Kelly, (PF-6) Mason Plumlee. Both, ironically, are from the state of North Carolina. Both are big men, 6′10" or bigger, both are stars, Kelly was the top player in NC, while both are McDonald’s All-Americans (note: we’re skeptical of players being named McDonald’s All-Americans. Since most of these kids pick their schools prior to their senior seasons, we believe because they’re going to Duke, it influences who gets picked for McDonald status).

While I am excited about both these players, if you’ve studied Duke’s recruiting over the years, you have to honestly say, you just don’t know.

Like The Big Lead asks, are these two more Singler/Laettner or Newtown/Zoubek? Right now, I’ll settle for anything in the middle.

Having said that, Duke is now going hard after John Wall. He’s the top rated high school player, who just so happens to be a athletic point guard.

He’s a stud, but he’ll only be in college for one year. He’s meeting with Coach K this Sunday, so we’ll see, but in reality, he’ll probably end up at the one-and-done factory, Memphis Tigers, who have already landed the No. 2 and No. 3 rated high school players (both are one-and-done too).

If Coach K can somehow convince Wall to come to Duke (he does live in Raleigh, N.C. and he has indicated his mother would like him to stay local), he could be the difference maker, along with Kelly and Plumlee.

Now if Wall doesn’t pick Duke, not all is lost. Duke has two other point guards on their list, Eric Bledsoe (Alabama) and Darius Smith (from Chicago). Both are quick, athletic point guards, who are waiting to see what happens at Duke.

Both have said they would love to play for the Blue Devils. While Bledsoe is probably the more talented of the two, it’s not a given that he could qualify for the university. While neither is quite John Wall, both could start for Duke next season at the point.

The other big question is Gerald Henderson. While Singler has already stated that he’s coming back next year, Henderson is a different story. He’s a junior so it just makes sense for him to at least declare for the draft, so he can go workout with other top talent for NBA scouts.

He’s projected to be a mid-to-late first rounder. Now while I believe Henderson will be a solid pro, he’s only 6′4", so he’s going to be a shooting guard. If so, he’s going to need to improve his long-range shooting even more and he’s going to need to work on going left.

As a Duke fan, I want him to do what is best for him and if going pro is it, I’ll be cheering for him. However, I wouldn’t mind him coming back for one more year to develop into a lottery pick next season.

For 2010, some good news came in today, as Seth Curry (Stephen’s little brother) will be transferring to the Devils. He was the highest scoring freshman (20ppg) for Liberty this year.

However, even if Curry didn’t show up, Duke’s ‘10 class is looking solid. The Blue Devils have already offered scholarships to seven high profile players, including No. 1 rated PG Brandon Knight, No. 1 rated SF Harrison Barnes, and No. 2 C Josh Smith. They have also already received commitments from (SG-6) Andre Dawkins (a Henderson-clone), (PF-5) Josh Hairston, (PG-9) Tyler Thornton. If we can assume they can land one more of their hopefuls, Duke should have a top-three class in 2010.

To sum up, the sky is still not falling and I’ll let the folks over at AM850 ‘The Blog’ wrap up it for us:

From my point of view, it simply shows Coach K’s program is a model of consistency and just about every other school in the country would be tickled with the same results. Unfortunately Duke is like Tiger Woods — their success can’t be compared to others. And don’t get it twisted and blame media pressure, Duke set its own standard last decade. Because of that, their recent trend of shallow runs in the NCAA Tournament is being scrutinized.

Just remember, it could be worse. You could be a Maryland fan.

2009 NCAA Tournament Prediction

rob murray — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 00:21:47 -0400

Welcome to the second annual "Ballsy Tournament Predictions," brought to you by the folks at Big Duke Balls. As you can tell from the name, I'm a lifelong Duke fan. If that bothers you, do yourself a favor and stop reading now.

You stuck around, good for you. Last year's edition, while well-written (if I may say so myself), was completely wrong. My Final Four predictions from last year were No. 2 Tennessee, No. 6 USC, No. 1 UCLA, and No. 4 Pittsburgh.

In reality, the only pick I can really be ashamed of was the Trojans, considering they didn't survive the first round. For the record, I had Duke losing in the Elite Eight (and I haven't picked Duke to win it all since 2006).

Instead of deciding on my four in the Final Four and then working my way there, I spent four days doing these predictions, each day doing a different round, never thinking ahead. Often, I would look back a day later and not even agree with some of the decisions I made. That's how it works though. I don't change anything, and I just keep moving forward.

Anyhow, like I always say, don't listen to my predictions—I haven't gotten anything right since 1996. Having said that, I'm going to give you my thoughts anyhow.

FIRST ROUND

EAST BRACKET

No. 1 Pittsburgh over No. 16 East Tennessee State

If the Bucs can slow it down and play good fundamental basketball, hit their free throws, and—come on, I'm just f-ing with you. East Tennessee State hasn't played in two weeks. The Panthers walk away by 35 in this one.

No. 8 Oklahoma State over No. 9 Tennessee

Tennessee has Bruce Pearl, Pat Summitt, and now Lane Kiffin...can one school really handle this many egos? I want to know, but it's not relevant for this prediction. The Volunteers are tall and experienced (Chism and T. Smith) in the paint. The Cowboys have three guards (Anderson, Harris, and Eaton) that can run with almost anyone. Come tournament time, we're all about the guards.

No. 5 Florida State over No. 12 Wisconsin

After a deep ACC tournament, the Seminoles are quickly becoming everyone's favorite sleeper. I've seen the Noles play plenty and I can't blame anyone for thinking that way. However, the Badgers still have Bo Ryan, who's one of the smartest coaches out there. If he can find a way to just slow down Tony Douglas, Wisconsin will win this game. Too bad they won't.

No. 13 Portland State over No. 4 Xavier

One team has not looked so good lately. One team has gone 5-5 in their final 10, losing to some crappy competition. One team struggles against athletic guards who shoot lots of threes, and one team has to cross the country to play. Have you figured out the one team I'm talking about? If you haven't, just stop reading this now.

No. 11 VCU over No. 6 UCLA

The Bruins have been to the Final Four three straight seasons. It's impressive, but it won't help them this year. You see, they never had to leave the state of California for those regions. This season UCLA has to fly cross country to Philly to face a very strong VCU team, led by Duke killer Eric Maynor. One bit of advice I can give UCLA: Don't flop. It didn't help Duke win two years ago.

No. 3 Villanova over No. 14 American

Last year I said if American lost, the terrorist won. They lost, and yes, the terrorist won. However, we have a shot at redemption, folks. The American Eagles (seriously, that kicks ass) are an experienced bunch who have won 13 in a row. Too bad they're basically taking on the Wildcats at home. No underdog love in Philly.

No. 7 Texas over No. 10 Minnesota

The Longhorns are playing better lately, while Minnesota is lucky to even get in. None of that matters come tournament time. The Gophers could pull off the upset thanks to their freshman towers, Iverson and Sampson, who are a combined 12 feet, nine inches tall...but come on, this is still Tubby coaching.

No. 2 Duke over No. 15 Binghamton

Come on, haters. I dare you to pick Duke to lose in the first round. In all honesty, I never heard of Binghamton. It sounds British, but it's not. The Bearcats have D.J. Rivera, a quick guard and the leading scorer of the America East Conference. Duke struggles with quick guards, so look for Binghamton to keep it close...for about seven minutes. Duke by 25.

SOUTH BRACKET

No. 1 North Carolina over No. 16 Radford

If the Tar Heels don't score over 110 against Radford, they suck. They really, really suck.

No. 9 Butler over No. 8 LSU

Last season, the SEC player of the year (I can't remember his name. He played for Vandy. You can look it up) went down in the first round. Look for it to happen again with LSU and Marcus Thornton. My gut says, by Sunday night, you're going to know who Gordon Hayward is. A hint...he plays for Butler.

No. 12 Western Kentucky over No. 5 Illinois

Last year's Cinderella 12th seed gets to face off against an improved Illinois squad. However, Illinois has a star point guard, his name is Chester Frazier, and he'll be out with a broken hand. Good luck with that.

No. 4 Gonzaga over No. 13 Akron

Did you know that Akron's head coach, Keith Dambrot, coached LeBron James for a bit in high school? You didn't? Loser. Too bad he doesn't have him now. The Zags are no longer everyone's favorite Cinderella story. They're now an elite program with NBA-type players...who has survived the first weekend of the tournament only once in the last eight years.

No. 6 Arizona State over No. 11 Temple

Both teams play great defense. Both also have a star player (James Harden for ASU, Dionte Christmas for Temple) that takes care of most of the scoring. This one should be fun. Too bad no one will be watching in the stands in Miami—just ask the Hurricanes and Heat and Marlins and even the Dolphins sometimes. I'm flipping a coin on this one, and it landed on Harden and the Sun Devils.

No. 14 S.F. Austin over No. 3 Syracuse

All talk will be about how fresh will the Orange be after playing about three dozen overtimes last week. They shouldn't be. They should be talking instead about S.F. Austin's defense against the three, 26 percent (No. 1 in the nation). They should also talk about how Syracuse hasn't made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament since 2004. Yep, I'm picking the upset.

No. 7 Clemson over No. 10 Michigan

Everything is pointing to an upset. The Tigers have dropped eight out of their last 15, got beat by a pathetic Georgia Tech team in the ACC tournament, and they're facing a 1-3-1 defense for the first time against a Michigan team that has already beaten one ACC powerhouse this season (Duke). So why am I picking Clemson to win? How the hell should I know?

No. 2 Oklahoma over No. 15 Morgan State

Is it me or is there a lot of hate directed at Oklahoma right now? I know they've struggled a bit lately and they have no bench (only going seven deep), but come on people. They still got Blake Griffin, who only averages a football score: 21 points and 14 rebounds per game. Blake will outrebound Morgan State by himself.

MIDWEST BRACKET

No. 1 Louisville over No. 16 (Play-in winner)

You have to hand it to Rick Pitino...he's a good sport. In fact, "Why did I move next to this asshole?" may be my favorite line of the year. I'm not sure who the Cardinals will be playing, but does it really matter? Besides, the play-in game is the stumpiest thing ever.

No. 9 Siena over No. 8 Ohio State

The Buckeyes nearly get a home court advantage, but we love Siena here at Big Duke Balls. Mostly because we predicted their first-round upset last year, but it also gave us an opportunity to link to many naked photos of Sienna Miller. We're not in love with putting a Cinderella slipper on the same team twice, but the Saints are a fearless bunch, and Ohio State still doesn't have a junior center named Greg Oden anymore.

No. 5 Utah over No. 12 St. Mary's Arizona

While all the talking heads can debate over and over again about who should be in this spot, St. Mary's or Arizona, we'll instead focus on the game. The Wildcats have three solid scorers (Hill, Budinger, and Wise), but Utah will win with fundamentals: strong inside D, rebounding, and superior free throw shooting. Would you expect anything less from a good Mormon school?

No. 4 Wake Forest over No. 13 Cleveland State

I would love to pick Cleveland State. I really would. They can slow things down, killing a running team like Wake, and they've already defeated the Orange in Syracuse. Plus, why isn't anyone talking about Wake Forest's 8-6 finish to the season? Not too impressive. The only thing is, those six losses came in the ACC. Cleveland State is not in the ACC.

No. 6 West Virginia over No. 11 Dayton

Why do I foresee a lot of people picking this No. 11 over No. 6 upset? They should be careful. Yes, the Flyers can play some solid D (giving up just over 60 per game), but Bob Huggins has a super stud freshman in Devin Ebanks and can also play some defense. I'd bet you a dollar that Dayton doesn't break 50.

No. 3 Kansas over No. 14 N. Dakota State

Here's the game I most want to watch. Seriously. How can you not love this matchup? Yes, I'm picking the Jayhawks to win, but trust me, it will be tough for even Kansas fans to not cheer for Dakota. In the end, I wouldn't be shocked to see an upset. Despite being in Division I for only one season, the Bison boys have a roster full of seniors/experience, who can play fearless because they got nothing to lose, right?

No. 7 Boston College over No. 10 Southern Cal

Congratulations, Trojans. You won the Pac-10 tournament. Your mothers must be real proud. Now welcome to the ACC. The Eagles are young, but they got Tyrese Rice. Besides, what can the Trojans throw at BC that they haven't gotten from facing Carolina, Duke, Wake, and others?

No. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 Robert Morris

Let's say you were playing a drinking game where the rule was, you drink every time Mr. Morris' squad shoots a two-point shot...don't do it, because you'd be completely sober by the end of the game. Seriously, the Colonials will be throwing up threes from every angle on the court (they made 40 percent during the season).

WEST BRACKET

No. 1 Connecticut over No. 16 Chattanooga

The Huskies have the most disruptive force inside the paint. Thank God for the Mocs, they hardly ever go inside. This could end up being the closest No. 1 vs. No. 16 in this year's tournament. Look for Chattanooga to keep it (sort of) close for at least a half (thanks to threes) before Connecticut's talent takes over.

No. 8 BYU over No. 9 Texas A&M

You want a stat? Try this one on for size: The Cougars shoot 49 percent from the floor...as a team...for the season...the entire season. You got that? For every two shots they take, they make one.

No. 5 Purdue over No. 12 Northern Iowa

Man, Purdue lucked out on this one. They should not be a five seed. The Panthers got a seven-footer, who weighs nearly 300 pounds, so he should be fun to watch, but Northern Iowa has nothing to stop Robbie Hummel.

No. 4 Washington over No. 13 Mississippi State

The Rebels are quite a story, winning their first conference title in 56 years. Of course, back then they still wouldn't let a black person on their campus (and they still insist on flying the rebel flag), but that has nothing to do with this. Miss State will be a popular first-round sleeper, but let's not kid ourselves—they're playing in the Huskies' backyard in Portland.

No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette

For a guy who has never been to the state of Utah (and because of Prop 8, hates the Mormon church right now), I'm sure giving their teams lots of love. However, it's not that I love Utah State; it's that I'm disliking Marquette and the location.

First, the game is in Idaho, Utah State's friendly neighbor. Second, Marquette is 1-5 since losing their star, Dominic James, and they haven't made it out of the first round the past two years even with him.

No. 3 Missouri over No. 14 Cornell

The Big Red can hit the three, but they've never seen a full-court press like the one the Tigers will throw at them. This one will be over too quickly for television.

No. 7 California over No. 10 Maryland

If Greivis Vasquez can have another triple-double, then the Terps could probably pull off the small upset, but let's be realistic. Maryland has one great guard, while the Bears have three really good guards (Patrick Christopher, Jerome Randle, and Theo Robertson).

No. 2 Memphis over No. 15 CS Northridge

Look on the bright side—when Memphis takes on the Matadors, it will be the toughest opponent they've faced in weeks. Seriously, do you realize Memphis is the only team from Conference USA in the tournament? The only one! CS Northridge could probably finish fourth in Conference USA.

SECOND ROUND

EAST BRACKET

No. 8 Oklahoma State over No. 1 Pittsburgh

Can DeJuan Blair stay out of foul trouble? It's the only question that needs to be asked. We know Pittsburgh is 3-4 when Blair gets four fouls and 0-3 when he fouls out. The Cowboys got great guards and can spread the floor, the exact type of team that actually gets Blair into foul trouble (think Villanova). The first No. 1 seed goes down.

No. 5 Florida State over No. 13 Portland State

Do not sleep on the Portland State Vikings. I warn you. They had enough talent to knock off Gonzaga back in December, so why can't they take down the Florida State Seminoles? I'll tell you why...the Douglas/Alabi combo.

No. 3 Villanova over No. 11 VCU

As much as I like the Rams to upset the Bruins, they don't have enough depth to steal one from the Wildcats, playing a second virtual home game. The win could set them up against Duke, two teams who could play the whole game with no one over 6'8" on the court.

No. 2 Duke over No. 7 Texas

The last time these two met, No. 1 Duke ripped No. 2 Texas by 30 in Jersey four years ago. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this one is much closer. The Longhorns are decent, although inconsistent, but they'll have no answer for the three-headed monster of Henderson, Scheyer, and Singler.

SOUTH BRACKET

No. 1 North Carolina over No. 9 Butler

I'm not doctor, but I'm going to assume Ty Law's toe is now smaller than a foot and will not slow the speedy point guard down. The Bulldogs from Butler know how to slow down an opponent's offense, but then again, they gave up 71 to Loyola-Illinois. The Tar Heels score 90 and win.

No. 4 Gonzaga over No. 12 Western Kentucky

Two small schools who like to make noise in the tournament. While the Hilltoppers still like the feel of a glass slipper, Gonzaga gave up Cinderella status long ago. They're an elite team (like Memphis) in a non-BCS conference. They also have NBA talent and can score.

No. 6 Arizona State over No. 14 S.F. Austin

James Harden will get to introduce himself to a lot of East Coasters when the Sun Devils take down upset-minded S.F. Austin and enter the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1995.

No. 2 Oklahoma over No. 7 Clemson

My personal favorite second round matchup, Trevor Booker will finally get to see what kind of pro he'll be when he goes up against Blake Griffin. The difference maker could be Terrence Oglesby and his ability to nail many threes. However, the Sooners will contain him, and Griffin will show off the goods with another big night.

MIDWEST BRACKET

No. 1 Louisville over No. 9 Siena

Oh, I want to pick Siena. I really do. I just think the Cards are overrated. Let's not forget, the Cardinals are a team that got crushed by Notre Dame by 33. Siena will keep this one entertaining, thanks to senior leadership, but they'll come up just short.

No. 4 Wake Forest over No. 5 Utah

The Demons have three players that will be playing in the NBA next year, while Utah has...red uniforms.

No. 6 West Virginia over No. 14 North Dakota State

Last year, the Mountaineers took out Duke in the second round. This year it will be North Dakota State. Could the two schools be any more different?

No. 2 Michigan State over No. 7 Boston College

The Spartans' experience will overcome Tyrese Rice, but can I just say now...the Big Ten getting seven teams into the tournament is a joke.

WEST BRACKET

No. 1 Connecticut over No. 8 BYU

Can the University of Connecticut pull off the double-double, having both the men's and women's teams win a championship in the same year? Don't know, but I know BYU won't stand in their way.

No. 4 Washington over No. 5 Purdue

I'm picking two Pac-10 teams to make it to the Sweet 16? I really need to lay off the opium.

No. 3 Missouri over No. 11 Utah State

Ex-Duke players/assistant coaches Quin Snyder and Tommy Amaker coached Missouri and Michigan not too long ago, and both departed unpleasantly. Both teams now find themselves back into the NCAA tournament with new coaches. I guess this gives Stanford something to look forward to in about five years.

No. 2 Memphis over No. 7 California

Yeah, I do trash the Tigers a lot (actually I trash their conference), yet here I am putting them back into the Sweet 16.

SWEET 16

EAST BRACKET

No. 8 Oklahoma State over No. 5 Florida State

Yep, I did it. I knocked the Panthers, a favorite to win it all by many, out of the tournament. Who the hell do I think I am? I'll tell you who I am. I'm a guy who's putting the OSU Cowboys into the Elite Eight. No, I don't think they're one of the top eight teams in the land, but they can beat Pittsburgh by spreading it out. Look for them to do it yet again against the Seminoles.

No. 2 Duke over No. 3 Villanova

Nearly everyone has Duke falling to the Wildcats, but I just don't know why. Villanova's strength is the same as Duke's strength. Duke's weakness is the same as Villanova's weakness. Duke's advantage: Over the last two months, no team has done a better job at not turning it over. Duke may miss more shots in the end, but they'll take more attempts.

SOUTH BRACKET

No. 4 Gonzaga over No. 1 North Carolina

Yep, I'm picking the upset. Another No. 1 goes down. This will be one hell of a battle; two teams who really like to score a lot. The winner will easily clear 90. As a longtime football and basketball guy, I know how devastating a toe injury is. Even if Lawson feels better, he's never going to feel perfect, and that will hurt the Tar Heels. He and that toe really are that important. If Lawson was healthy, I'd pick Carolina to go to the title.

No. 2 Oklahoma over No. 6 Arizona State

Griffin vs. Harden...size always wins, baby. At least that's what my wife always says.

MIDWEST BRACKET

No. 4 Wake Forest over No. 1 Louisville

Sorry folks, the Cardinals are a scam. They may have won the Big East, but they did it without having to travel to either Pittsburgh or Connecticut. Wake Forest has three NBA-ready players on their roster, and not even Louisville's full-court press can slow down Jeff Teague.

No. 6 West Virginia over No. 2 Michigan State

The year of the Big Ten fraud comes to an end when the seventh best Big East school knocks the top team in the Big Ten out of the tournament. Call me an Ebanks groupie, but I believe he's going to have a huge tournament.

WEST BRACKET

No. 1 Connecticut over No. 4 Washington

It should be fun to watch Huskies senior Jon Brockman, standing only 6'7", muscle 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet for rebounds. For the record, Brockman averages 11.3 rebounds per game, one more than Thabeet. Too bad Washington doesn't have an answer for A.J. Price.

No. 2 Memphis over No. 3 Missouri

Yes, you probably already know that Mike Anderson was the last coach to defeat John Calipari in Conference USA, so does that mean he has some secret to success? Who cares? Wasn't that like in 1976?

ELITE EIGHT

EAST BRACKET

No. 2 Duke over No. 8 Oklahoma State

The Blue Devils get lucky again. Since the Cowboys took care of Pittsburgh, Duke meets up with another team that they match up well against. No team guards the three-point line better than the Devils, while OSU has no answer for Singler and Henderson. After four years, Duke returns to the Final Four.

SOUTH BRACKET

No. 2 Oklahoma over No. 4 Gonzaga

The Zags get another shot to break through the Final Four wall, but unfortunately for them, the country's best player (Griffin) stands in their way. For Blake, by game number four, it will be like stealing candy from a baby.

MIDWEST BRACKET

No. 6 West Virginia over No. 4 Wake Forest

If there's a coach who can make the Demons look young, it's Bobby Huggins. Despite the fact three Big East teams "earned" a No. 1 seed, it will be the Mountaineers who are the lone Big East representative in the Final Four. Oh crap, did I just give away the next bracket?

WEST BRACKET

No. 2 Memphis over No. 1 Connecticut

Here's how it works. If the Huskies had Jerome Dyson, I'd pick them. In fact, if Lawson was healthy for UNC and Dyson was playing, I would have picked a UNC/Connecticut final (with Carolina winning it all). However, Dyson is out and Connecticut is just 4-3 without him. The Tigers will be able to control Thabeet, but Price won't be able to handle Evans. It's back-to-back Final Fours for Memphis.

FINAL FOUR

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils over No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners

Here it is, student vs. pupil (technically Jeff Capel isn't a pupil of Coach K. He was never an assistant). Having said that, it is certainly a great matchup between two contrasting styles. In one corner, the motion offense, run basically by four small forwards/shooting guards, going against size, Blake Griffin. While the Sooners are by no means a one-man band, everything flows through him.

The Sooners aren't deep, only playing about seven players, but luckily for them, this isn't a run-n-gun Duke team with the safe and conservative Scheyer running the floor.

Duke will have no answers for Blake, so look for Coach K to swarm three players at Griffin every time he touches the ball. If the Sooners are going to beat Duke, they'll need to beat them with other players.

While Griffin is a solid defender, he's not a shot blocker, which can give Duke trouble. Look for the Devils to spread it out and force Griffin to have to move on double teams.

No. 2 Memphis Tigers over No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers

There's a lot of talk recently about the Tigers and Coach Calipari's one-and-done strategy, like Tyreke Evans, but while the freshman stud may run the show for the Tigers, the heart and soul of this bunch is the four other starters, all upperclassmen (two juniors and two seniors).

The two seniors have been to two Elite Eights and a title game. If they make it to another title game, that would be 20 postseason games in a career (for the record, Duke's class of '92 played in 23 postseason games).

While I believe Huggins can bottle up Evans—in fact, Ebanks (the West Virginia freshman) will have the bigger game—Memphis' tournament experience will pay off in the end.

TITLE GAME

No. 2 Memphis Tigers over No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

I love my Blue Devils and I hate the Memphis Tigers, but let's be honest, if Duke's going to actually make it this far (which is a stretch to say the least), they're going to need a lot of luck (in my pool, they benefit from both Pittsburgh and North Carolina going down earlier).

The Devils' luck will run out, simply because Memphis is back at this again. After two Elite Eights and a heartbreaking title game defeat last season, the Tigers will make it over the hump in 2009.

CHAMPION: Memphis Tigers