Bleacher Report - Articles by Suicide Jack Milligan

BCS Bowl Game Predictions

Suicide Jack Milligan — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 18:30:28 -0500

This article is a follow-up to previous weeks’ predictions. I will continue to post weekly predictions until the actual Bowl picks come out.

A few key points to remember:

1. 1. No conference can have more than two teams picked for the BCS bowls. (Sorry, Texas Tech.)

2. 2. Each bowl makes the pick that benefits that particular bowl itself. There appears to be very little corroboration between the bowls to make picks that benefit all five BCS bowl games as a whole.

3. 3. Utah earned an automatic BCS bid by ranking above all other Mid-major teams and by ranking inside the top 12. This fills seven of the 10 available spots, leaving three at-large bids open.

4. 4. Only the top ranked Mid-major team will earn an automatic bid. (Sorry, Boise St.) The other team is eligible for an at-large bid, but not an automatic bid.

Order of Picks

1. Bowl that lost No. 1

2. Bowl that lost No. 2

3. Fiesta

4. Sugar

5. Orange

Rose Bowl gets Pac-10 and Big 10 Champs

• USC

• Penn St.

Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 Champ

• Lost Oklahoma to the title game, so picks Texas (first pick).

• Picks Utah (third pick).

Sugar Bowl gets SEC Champ

• Lost Alabama to the title game, so picks Florida (second pick).

• Picks Ohio St. (fourth pick).

Orange Bowl gets the ACC Champ

• Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)

• Cincinnati (Big East Champ) (fifth and last pick)

2008 Orange Bowl Championship Game

• Alabama

• Oklahoma

The most expected change to this prediction is Florida beating Alabama in the SEC championship game. I expect the Gators will win and send themselves to the National Title game, but until the game is played, I will keep my predictions aligned with the BCS rankings. Yet, even if the Crimson Tide go down, I predict the two teams will swap places; Florida will go to the Title game and Alabama to the Sugar Bowl.

As always, the most difficult spot to pick is the ACC champ. I was wrong last week as I expected Virginia Tech to lose and I thought Georgia Tech was playing great. I was right about GT, but wrong about VT.

This week I threw darts to pick a winner. For those who bet, stay away from the ACC championship game.

The Oklahoma-Texas debate has been settled, and it appears Oklahoma will be playing for the Title. Oregon St. lost, sending USC to the Rose Bowl, and reducing the Pac-10 representation in the BCS to one team.

For the three at-large spots, two are not actually at-large since the BCS selection procedures give an automatic qualification to teams ranked No. 3 and No. 4 as long as there is room to fit them in with the other automatic qualifiers. Thus, Texas at No. 3 is in, and Alabama or Florida at No. 4 is in.

With No. 3 and No. 4 in, only one at-large spot remains up to the bowls to pick. This was a tough pick, because I would like to believe that the Sugar Bowl would rather pick a ninth ranked undefeated team, Boise St., over a 10th ranked Ohio St., but I can’t see it happening.

Truthfully, it’s hard to make an argument for the boys in blue.

Boise St., though undefeated, has only one win over a team in the top 50, a narrow victory over No. 16 Oregon. Ohio St. has three wins over teams in the top 50, with a convincing win over No. 15 Michigan St. By comparison, undefeated Ball St. has three wins over top 50 teams, but none over top 25 teams.

I will stop there because I don’t want to make an argument for one team or another; I only want to illustrate why I think the bowl committees will choose one way over another. Yet, no matter how many ways I analyze the selection process, the loyalties and the cash will probably earn Ohio St. a trip to a big money game rather than their play on the field. Good luck next year Broncos, Cardinals, and Red Raiders.

Left Out

• Ball St.

• Texas Tech

• Boise St.

• Georgia

• Oklahoma St.

• Missouri

• Georgia Tech

• Michigan St.

• TCU

BCS Bowl Game Predictions 11/25

Suicide Jack Milligan — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 07:03:34 -0500

BCS Predictions as of Nov. 25, 2008

This article is a follow-up to last week’s predictions. I will continue to post weekly predictions until the actual bowl picks come out.

A few key points to remember:

1. No conference can have more than two teams picked for the BCS bowls (sorry Texas Tech).

2. Each bowl makes the pick that benefits that particular bowl itself. There appears to be very little corroboration between the bowls to make picks that benefit all five BCS bowl games as a whole.

3. Utah earned an automatic BCS bid by ranking above all other mid-major teams and by ranking inside the top eight. This fills seven of the 10 available spots, leaving three at-large bids open.

Order of picks this year

1. Bowl that lost No. 1

2. Bowl that lost No. 2

3. Fiesta

4. Sugar

5. Orange

Rose Bowl gets Pac-10 and Big Ten Champs

- Oregon St.

- Penn St.

Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 Champ

- Lost Texas to the title game so picks USC (first pick)

- Picks Utah (third pick)

Sugar Bowl gets SEC Champ

- Lost Alabama to the title game so picks Florida (second pick)

- Picks Oklahoma (fourth pick)

Orange Bowl gets the ACC Champ

- Georgia Tech (ACC Champ)

- Cincinnati (Big East Champ) (fifth and last pick)

And the 2008 BCS Championship game

- Alabama

- Texas

The toughest pick to make was the ACC Champ. I gave the nod to Georgia Tech because I think Virginia Tech will lose to Virginia. This will give G-Tech the spot from the Coastal Division because they have the tiebreaker over Miami, who I predict will win this week over NC State.

Georgia Tech will likely meet Florida St. or Boston College in the ACC Championship game. Since GT beat both those teams in the regular season, I chose the Yellow Jackets. However, knowing the ACC, nothing will turn out as clean and neat as I hope.

The obvious change to this prediction will be if Florida beats Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Most predict this will happen, and I will update my picks if it does. However, since the BCS rankings still have the Tide over the Gators and the game has not been played, I will stick with the BCS rank.

However, if Florida wins, it will change my picks very little. Florida will go to the title game and Alabama will go to the Sugar Bowl.

The other great debate is Oklahoma or Texas. It is funny—Oklahoma leads Texas in points from both the USA Today and Harris Polls, but the computers give Texas the advantage it needs to climb above the Longhorns in the BCS standings. If the computers reward the Sooners this week for a win over Oklahoma St., then Oklahoma gets the top spot.

The Bowl with the most to decide is the Fiesta Bowl. Normally given to the Big 12 Champ, this bowl is planning to lose that team to the championship game. This gives the Fiesta Bowl the opportunity to pick first and third. This leaves automatic bids Cincinnati and Utah, along with other top teams Florida, Oklahoma, USC, Texas Tech, Boise St., Ohio St., and Georgia available.

Cincinnati is a bad choice because they are an average team. Florida will not be around when it comes time to pick, and Alabama, though nationally recognized, is not as exciting to watch as Texas, Oklahoma, or USC. Moreover, Big East and SEC fans would not travel to Arizona as well as fans from closer schools would.

Ohio St. is another bad choice because no one wants to see a rematch from earlier in the season.

USC seems to be a good choice because fans are close, the team has national name recognition, and it would draw good television ratings. Utah is a solid choice because their fans traveled well in 2004 to the Fiesta Bowl, but they would be billed as the underdog.

Either Texas or Oklahoma will be available, and both would be good choices due to national recognition, a relative proximity to the bowl, and the potential to pit the arguable top team from the Big 12 against the arguable top team from the Pac-10. Those are all reasons to go for this matchup. The media would eat it up.

If this is the Fiesta Bowl’s plan, the Sugar Bowl, with the second pick, could thwart that plan if they want the Big 12 runner-up. I expect this to happen, which is why I put Utah at the Fiesta Bowl.

Left Out

Ohio St.

Texas Tech

Boise St.

Georgia

Oklahoma St.

Missouri

Can a Mid-Major Team Play for a BCS National Title?

Suicide Jack Milligan — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 03:28:57 -0500

Can a mid-major conference team ever play for a national championship under the current BCS system?

In past years, I would cynically think that it is impossible for a team outside the Big Six to have a chance at the biggest game of the year. But as I re-examined the requirements for the top two teams in the BCS standings, I see no reason why, with the right scheduling, a mid-major team couldn’t play for a national title.

With that realized, it seems apparent that most of these schools do not want to play for a national title.

Some BYU fans, and fans of other mid-major teams, claim the BCS was set up to ensure that another national champion did not come from a “lesser” conference, like when BYU took the crown in 1984.

Though I was not old enough at the time to read, let alone analyze the controversy, all the articles I have read from 1984 that criticized the Cougars’ title criticized their strength of schedule. Yet the Associated Press and the USA Today polls both voted BYU number one, and their votes gave the Cougars the title.

Today, each team’s BCS ranking is comprised of one-third USA Today Poll, one-third Harris Interactive Poll, and one-third computer rankings. The USA Today Poll is the roughly the same as it was in 1984. The Harris Interactive Poll took the place of the AP Poll and is deemed to be fairer because its voters statistically represent all 11 conferences.

With two polls comprising the majority of the vote, there should be no argument that the BCS uses polls to keep out a mid-major team, since the polls are what gave BYU the title in 1984.

The remaining third variable that was not a factor in BYU’s title year is the computer rankings. The computer measures statistical variables such as strength of schedule, performance against ranked opponents, etc. More of this is explained at the BCS website, along with links to the seven different computer formulas used to determine the BCS computer rank.

With so much emphasis put on the two polls, there seems to be as much of an opportunity for a mid-major team to rise to the number one spot now as there was in 1984. In fact, with the inclusion of unbiased computer formulas, there seems to be an even greater chance that a mid-major team could rise to the top with quality wins.

One key factor in most of the computer ranking formulas is wins over ranked opponents. Some formulas use top 10, top 25, top 30, top 50, so essentially, teams are rewarded for wins over good teams. Similarly, the members voting in the polls will also reward a team for beating another good team.

Thus, the way to play for a national championship is...schedule and beat good teams! Brilliant, right? This was a long road to the obvious, but if the answer is so simple, then why are so many fans complaining that the BCS is unfair and does not give everyone a shot?

The answer is that the four BCS Bowl games are unfair to everyone (except the ACC and the Big East), but the BCS Title game is based on performance and statistics. Any team can help their chances of getting there based on scheduling.

If any mid-major team could play for a title, then why don’t we see it happening? Most mid-major schools don’t want to play for a shot at the title.

To get to the title game, a team would need to schedule as many top teams as possible to increase their strength of schedule. This increases the chance that the team could lose. It is possible that at places like Boise St., Utah, and BYU, the boosters and the fans would rather see check marks in the win column than witness losses to good teams in an effort to raise the team’s stock.

This is one explanation I can think of. Why else would BYU schedule Northern Iowa (I-AA or Championship Subdivision) in their non-conference schedule for this year?

Why would Utah schedule Weber St. (also Championship Subdivision), or why would Hawaii also schedule Weber St., or why would Boise St. schedule Idaho St. (again, Championship Subdivision), or why would Houston schedule Southern, or why would Tulsa schedule Central Arkansas, or why would Ball St. schedule Northeastern, or why would TCU schedule Stephen F. Austin?

The list of mid-major contenders scheduling Championship Subdivision teams amazes me. I understand that teams want a warm-up game, but why schedule a team outside the top 120 when you know your conference opponents will be lucky to break the top 50? It is a plan for mediocrity.

The only exception to this list is Fresno St. With the exception of perhaps Toledo, they went out and got the best opponents they could play. If Toledo is their worst non-conference team they played, then they are many steps ahead of the above named teams that each played a team outside the Bowl Subdivision.

Fresno St. also has the well known “anyplace, anytime” motto that they proclaim and invite any challengers to their home for a game, and offer to travel to any school to play. This strategy did not pan out this year, as Fresno St. lost several games, but they seem to be one of the few teams attempting to raise their national perception.

Some will argue that small schools like Central Arkansas need games like those to test their programs and provide funds for the school. I agree, but why can’t they play those games against the other 110 Division I football teams that are not in the peculiar situation that the top mid-major teams are in?

Teams from the Big Six conferences can afford to play games against Championship Subdivision teams because Big Six teams can expect to face ranked opponents through in-conference play. Teams at the bottom of the stack in conferences outside the Big Six can also afford to play the small schools because they are not looking to place their programs in the top 10.

Others will argue that big teams refuse to play mid-major teams because if they lose then it looks very bad, and they cannot run that risk. I do not think this is a valid point. Many well-known programs, such as Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Florida, Oregon St., Oregon, UCLA, Washington, Michigan, and Stanford, lined up across the ball from teams representing the MWC and the WAC this year alone.

These types of non-conference games are happening. I am arguing that mid-major teams are each squandering one game a year and could make these influential games happen one more time each season.

Imagine if BYU, TCU, Utah, or Boise St. added Miami, Florida St., Boston College, or Nebraska to their schedule. An additional win over these top 30 ranked schools would provide additional leverage and respect from the polls and the computers.

Imagine if the 2004 Utah team had shellacked Pitt in the regular season rather than in the Fiesta Bowl. Urban Meyer’s team may have had a chance to line up against USC or at least SEC Champ Auburn, rather than an unfulfilling beatdown of the Big East placeholder.

What has happened is that mid-major teams have all followed the Notre Dame strategy and have taken the coward's way out.

Notre Dame receives an automatic berth to a BCS Bowl and a huge payout if they are in the top eight at the end of the year. Therefore, it is not to ND’s financial advantage to overachieve. Number eight pays just as well as number one, so they schedule decent teams and hope to minimize their losses.

Mid-major conferences are guaranteed a BCS Bowl—and of course, the big money—if a team finishes in the top 12, or if a team is in the top 16 and its ranking is above that of a champion of a conference that has an automatic berth.

Based on history, a team from either the MWC or the WAC will be ranked the highest if undefeated. Therefore, there is no financial incentive for a team to finish higher than 12th as long as that team finishes highest among the mid-majors.

Does anyone find this ridiculous? Are all these students just playing for money? According to the BCS, they are. Why not stick it to the suits and the computers and go for the gusto? Get the boosters on board, fatten up the schedule with as many high quality teams as possible, and then try to run the table.

If it works, and the cards fall right, we could experience a Cinderella story in college football for the first time in 24 years.

The formula is known to all the teams who play D-I football, so why not use it to your advantage? I don’t think that most of the teams I mentioned aren’t trying. I believe they are. I just think if they want a national title, they only need to try a little harder to be given a shot at the crown.

Does BYU Deserve to Play in a BCS Bowl?

Suicide Jack Milligan — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:43:29 -0500

Does BYU deserve to play in a BCS Bowl?

In my last article I posted a poll that asked which of the following teams deserved to play in a BCS bowl. I will list the choices in the order of votes received: Ball St. (1.5 percent), Missouri (3.8 percent), Oklahoma St. (4.6 percent), TCU (4.6 percent), Georgia (11.5 percent), Boise St. (15.4 percent) and finally BYU with a whopping 58.5 percent of the vote.

At the time I wrote this article there were 130 votes cast so the percentages may shift somewhat in the next few days, but I don’t anticipate a large swing to make up for the drastic support given to BYU.

This overwhelming support for the Cougars led me to wonder why BYU received so much of the vote. In posting the poll, I assumed each person who read the article would vote for their respective home team and the numbers would wind up roughly equal, but I was wrong.

Even more surprising was the scant two voters who registered a tick for Ball St. I assumed the folks in Muncie would be out in a fury, or at least someone in the Midwest would think an undefeated season was worth a shot at the big boys, apparently not. I can’t say that I blame the voters, I was merely surprised at the result.

To determine why BYU received so much support I have been left to theorize and speculate. BYU does have a large fan base comprised of graduates nationwide and many fans in Utah, the 34th most populous state in the union. Yet, no matter how I look at it I can’t see BYU fans swaying the poll so much that it would lead to such a drastically disproportionate result.

This overwhelming favor for BYU must mean that national voters feel that BYU is the best team outside the top ten. To this I must ask, Why?

I think the Cougars are a fun team to watch. The passing attack is lethal, and you just can’t look away from Max Hall’s beady eyes. But, despite their offensive potential and their national name recognition, why do they belong above the other six teams listed.

BYU is coming off a win against a good (No.39) Air Force team and recorded early wins against (No.71) UCLA and (No.112) Washington. Though these were decent wins, none of their wins have come against a team ranked in the top 25. In fact, the next best team that BYU beat this year after Air Force was a three-point victory over (No.68) Colorado State.

I’m not trying to get down on the Cougars, I’m just trying to justify why they deserve a big payday, and I cannot see it. Truthfully, I’d love to see BYU ranked in the top ten with their sights set on a big game against a SEC or Big 12 opponent.

However, the problem is that BYU does not seem to be at that level yet. In fact, it is hard to justify the No.14 spot they hold in both the BCS and USA Today polls, both of which rank them above a TCU team that served up a 32-7 loss to the Cougars.

Some of my analysis may change in less than a week if BYU beats No.7 Utah at home. I’ll rethink my logic and prepare to see those awful orange and blue BSU jerseys in the Sugar Bowl, but I am praying, along with anyone else with a High-Def TV, that this doesn’t happen.

I’m preparing a follow-up article that addresses what teams like BYU can do to gain national respect (guess what, it involves beating ranked teams) and I will post it soon.

My sources for the top 120 teams in college football came from http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/polls/120.

BCS Bowl Game Predictions 11/16

Suicide Jack Milligan — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 12:20:27 -0500

BCS Bowl Predictions as of 11/16/08

My updated Predictions can be read here http://bleacherreport.com/articles/85864-bcs-bowl-game-predictions

Here are my predictions as to who will be playing in each of the BCS bowl games along with explanations as to why they wound up that way. I have provided a little commentary to justify my decisions following my predictions.

Order of picks in 2008

1. 1. Bowl that lost #1

2. 2. Bowl that lost #2

3. 3. Fiesta

4. 4. Sugar

5. 5. Orange

Rose Bowl gets Pac-10 and Big 10 Champs

- Oregon St.

- Penn St.

Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 Champ

- Lost Texas Tech to the title game so picks Texas (1^st pick)

- Picks USC (3^rd pick)

Sugar Bowl gets SEC Champ

- Lost Alabama so picks Florida (2^nd pick)

- Picks Utah (4^th pick)

Orange Bowl gets the ACC Champ

- Maryland (ACC Champ)

- Cincinnati (Big East Champ) (5^th and last pick)

And the 2008 Orange Bowl Championship game

- Alabama

- Texas Tech

Left Out

- Ohio St.

- Oklahoma

- Boise St.

- Georgia

- Oklahoma St.

Some could make an argument for the teams that were left out, and most of it will come from Ohio State who will be denied their divine right to get beat in a BCS Bowl, but if the Buckeyes are not picked, it will be the best decision the BCS bowls can make.

Hopefully, it will make Jim Delany mad enough to do something about the automatic representation of the Big East and the ACC. Not even Jermaine Lewis will tune in to watch Maryland and Cincinnati crap the bed against each other.

Oklahoma probably deserves to be a BCS Bowl more than any other team left out in the cold, but they fall victim to the BCS Conference two-team limit rule. Boise State would have an argument that they should be included, but when their best win of the season came in a five-point victory over #24 Oregon, its hard to argue their case.

Even worse, if Oregon loses in their final game at Oregon State, which is likely, then Oregon will likely drop out of the top 25 and the Broncos will be undefeated, but without a win over a ranked team.

My predictions will only change if Oregon State loses in the next two weeks, dropping them out of a Pac-10 Championship and out of the Rose Bowl opening up one more spot for the divine heir, Ohio State, to fulfill their role and lose in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

If Utah loses its final game against BYU, then Boise State will automatically claim their spot. In this scenario the big loser is the Mountain West conference by losing a team representative from a BCS game and a potential $8.75 million payout (half of the predicted $17.5M to be split).

The teams I have picked to represent the SEC and the Big 12 may change due to the final games of the season and the conference championship games, but the bowls featuring Alabama and Florida will likely be filled by the top two SEC teams at the end of the season. The bowls featuring Texas and Texas Tech will be filled by the top two Big 12 teams at the end of the season.

What I have attempted is to read the minds of those making the decisions. These are not the games I would put together; rather, the games I predict will take place. My main resource was Yahoo! Sports (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football) and the BCS propaganda home site (http://www.bcsfootball.org).