Bleacher Report - Articles by Steeltown Mike

Satan Hoists Cup, and the Fun That Comes with It

Steeltown Mike — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:33:27 -0400

The Eternal Forces have brought their Spiritual War to the sports world, and it's been going on for a while.

In October 2002, the Righteous scored a victory when the Anaheim Angels won the World Series.

Eight months later, the Unholy got revenge when the New Jersey Devils won the Stanley Cup, defeating Anaheim's own Mighty Ducks.

The following season, the Righteous, directing the Tampa Bay Lightning, struck down the Unholy's Calgary Flames in a seven-game classic for the Cup.

Two years later, the Unholy were victorious again when the Miami Heat became champions of the NBA.

Mere months afterward, it was the Righteous' turn. The NFL's New Orleans Saints won their division and advanced to the best postseason showing in their history.

More recently, the Righteous claimed another victory in 2008 when Tampa Bay's Major League Baseball team dropped "Devil" from its moniker, simply becoming the "Rays." That move seemed to spark an improbable run that saw the franchise not only have its first-ever winning season, but a berth in the World Series.

Now, with the Pittsburgh Penguins hoisting the 2009 Stanley Cup, the Unholy claim they have struck back, executing a plan that was nearly a year in the making.

On July 3, 2008, with attention keenly focused on the Rays' unbelievable run, a journeyman winger named "Miroslav" was innocuously signed to a one-year deal with the upstart Pittsburgh Penguins, who had just been defeated by the Detroit Red Wings in the 2008 Stanley Cup Final.

After struggling for much of the year, Miroslav was "sent down" to the Penguins' AAA club for the remainder of the regular season.

Miroslav's return for the playoffs saw him acquire six points (one goal, five assists) and six minor penalty minutes (he also had a 5-minute major for fighting).

That was in addition to the six power-play goals he scored during the regular season.

It was enough to help guide the Penguins to their third-ever championship.

And it was enough to see Miroslav (commonly referred to by play-by-play broadcasters as Satan) raise hockey's sacred chalice.

Insiders for the Unholy, however, say that everything did not go according to plan.

In the waning seconds of Game 7, Detroit's Nicklas Lidstrom was to score a last-second, game-tying goal to force overtime.

In the ensuing period, 11 minutes and six seconds in, Satan was then supposed to put the final tally past Red Wings goalie Chris Osgood.

Newspapers coast to coast were prepared to print the headline: "Satan Burns Wings in OT, Penguins Win Stanley Cup"

When asked what went wrong, the Unholy grudgingly admit that the Righteous were one step ahead of them.

Two days prior to Satan signing with Pittsburgh, the Penguins signed a man by the name of "Eric."

Eric Godard.

The Unholy said that it was all they could do just to ensure that Godard was a healthy scratch throughout the playoffs.

Although it can't be proven, the Unholy claim that Godard's presence was enough to allow Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to maintain his focus on the puck as it ricocheted to Lidstrom's stick.

While the Unholy still claim victory, insiders for the Righteous point out that both names, Satan and Godard, will now be engraved on the Stanley Cup.

A Beautiful "D": The Man Behind the New Steel Curtain

Steeltown Mike — Thu, 28 May 2009 21:57:15 -0400

In English, "LeBeau" translates to "The Beautiful One."

In Pittsburgh, nothing could be more beautiful than a defense that is at once smart and smash-mouth.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive Coordinator Charles Richard "Dick" LeBeau represents a significant portion of the "smart".

LeBeau's most well-known creation is the Frankenstein's Monster called the "Zone Blitz," but the 71-year old NFL stalwart has had a career that spans generations. His 50-plus years in the league, both as a Pro Bowl player and a coach, has armed him with perhaps the greatest insight into the nuances of his craft.

He was a defensive back for the Detroit Lions from 1959 to 1974, and still holds the league record for most consecutive starts by a defensive back (171). He also still ranks in the top ten all-time in interceptions (62).

LeBeau was even a collegiate champion with Woody Hayes' 1957 Ohio State Buckeyes.

As a defensive coordinator, LeBeau has been to four Super Bowls (XXXIII with Cincinnati; XXX, XL, and XLIII with Pittsburgh) and made another trip with Cincinnati in 1981 as a defensive backs coach.

LeBeau has had two different stints with the Steelers. He was Bill Cowher's first defensive backs coach in 1992 and was promoted to defensive coordinator in 1995. He left to join division rival Cincinnati in 1997.

He returned to the black-and-gold in 2004 and never looked back. In the past five seasons, the Steelers have not finished worse than third in defending the run, and only once finished worse than third in total defense. A plethora of his players have been selected to the Pro Bowl.

While LeBeau's success in Pittsburgh has helped nickname the Steel City "Blitzburgh", his famed "Zone Blitz" has its beginnings in Cincinnati. It was designed to counter the quick-release style of the West Coast Offense which was gaining popularity in the late 1980s.

Despite the rough-and-tumble, zero-tolerance product LeBeau assembles on the field, it's difficult to find anyone with an unkind word to say about the man himself. Some of his players call him "Coach Dad", and, virtually to a man, credit their success to his guidance.

Players say that Head Coach Mike Tomlin has given LeBeau more space to call plays than Cowher. Tomlin himself affirmed this to the Associated Press, saying simply, "Dick is the guy."

Pittsburgh is the reigning Super Bowl champion entering the 2009 season, thanks in no small part to a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown by linebacker James Harrison as the first half of Super Bowl XLIII expired.

LeBeau credits Harrison, though it was the play call itself that had Harrison drop back into coverage, instead of in his usual capacity as a pass rusher. According to Harrison, all he had to do was "guess" which way Arizona Cardinals Quarterback Kurt Warner would throw the quick slant.

Intelligent. Patient. Modest.

It's a perfect storm of qualities that make up a man old enough to be a grandfather to some of his younger players, but young enough at heart to be on the field with them in spirit. And Dick LeBeau will be guiding them for at least one more season.

For the city of Pittsburgh and its Steelers, it's a beautiful thing.

Steelers' 2009 Playbook Requires Singular Focus

Steeltown Mike — Mon, 25 May 2009 21:52:05 -0400

The Pittsburgh Steelers were able to overcome one of the most difficult regular season schedules in NFL history en route to their sixth Super Bowl title.

Those who have watched football for the better part of their lives know that this was accomplished in spite of a spotty offensive line.

The Black-and-Gold's playbook will undergo its annual additions and revisions, and there are a few changes that need to be made.

In order to make another deep run into the playoffs, these few changes will need to be significant to take pressure off the offensive line, and, as a result, off of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

With regard to the running game, Pittsburgh needs to cut back on running the football up the middle. That is unless the Steelers discover that second-year running back Rashard Mendenhall can break tackles on a regular basis.

According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Steelers attempted to rush up the middle (between the guards) 56 percent of the time. However, they were still ranked 24th in the league in production.

Speedy tailback Willie Parker and his third-down counterpart Mewelde Moore were not able to gain yardage reliably behind left guard Chris Kemoeatu, center Justin Hartwig, and the right guard tandem of Kendall Simmons (since cut by the team) and Darnell Stapleton.

Most Steeler fans will also recall the problems the team had in converting third-and-short. Not to mention their struggles inside the goal line on third and fourth downs.

If Pittsburgh is unable to control the "A" gaps up front, then it has no business running more than half of its rushing plays in that direction.

There is more bad statistical data from the 2008 offensive line—they ranked a paltry 29th in pass protection.

The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs held the 29th position in 2006 and 2007, respectively, and won a combined seven games.

This statistic explains why Roethlisberger found himself running around, attempting to dodge linebackers seemingly every other play. It was not usually the case of him holding the ball too long. He was simply getting no support from his line on either run or pass plays.

With no significant help (at least to this point) through the draft or free agency to bolster the offensive front five, the Steelers need to design more ways to implement Moore in a role where he is very successful.

In 2008, Moore caught 17 passes for first downs. Willie Parker caught none. With a quarterback who is constantly under pressure, the team needs a reliable outlet.

As far as receivers are concerned, the Steelers should not shy away from implementing more of second-year man Limas Sweed. Despite his propensity to drop the occasional touchdown pass (see AFC Championship vs. Ravens), he has shown the ability to get behind a defense. By stretching the field, he can work wonders.

With Nate Washington now in Tennessee, the Steelers need to establish a new deep threat so that opposing defenses are less inclined to sneak eight or nine men into the box. Crossing routes with Superbowl XLIII MVP Santonio Holmes could help.

If the opposing defense is able to contain Sweed and Holmes, Roethlisberger should be able to check down to a relatively open middle of the field. Either tight end Heath Miller or wide receiver Hines Ward, who would be best used in the slot position until the end of his career, could find reasonably easy receptions.

Defensively, it is difficult to improve on being ranked first in practically every category from a season ago. The personnel changes are negligible (Lawrence Timmons for Larry Foote at inside linebacker, William Gay for Bryant McFadden at cornerback), and coordinator Dick LeBeau has the respect of the entire unit. Any tweak he makes to the destructive repertoire is just for fun.

Simply put, the Pittsburgh Steelers are one good offensive line short of a true juggernaut. Adjusting the playbook for that shortfall should be the coaching staff's primary, secondary, and tertiary priorities.

Twenty Questions With Pittsburgh Steelers Linebacker James Harrison

Steeltown Mike — Mon, 25 May 2009 17:58:46 -0400

Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker James Harrison, who celebrated his 31st birthday earlier this month, has had a tumultuous year.

He was able to trump his own breakout 2007 season by winning the 2008 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year honor and by recording the longest play in Superbowl history with a pivotal 100-yard interception return for a touchdown in February.

The Steeler known as "Silverback" has also been in the spotlight for issues not pertaining to his prowess on the field and subsequent rise to his place among pro football's elite.

Who is the man behind Number 92? The following 20 questions will attempt to paint a complete picture.

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1) First of all, Mr. Harrison, tell us a little bit about your upbringing. You are the youngest of 14 children. How much, if at all, did having to fend off 13 siblings contribute to your development as a person and as a player?

2) Growing up in Akron, Ohio, you were kind of in no-man's land with regard to the great Steelers/Browns rivalry, but certainly geographically closer to Cleveland. Were you a fan of either club? If not, where did your football loyalties lie? And if you were a Browns fan, has it been odd playing for the Steelers or playing for a brief stint in the Ravens organization?

3) You've worked your way from an undrafted free agent in 2002 to one of the more recognizable names in professional football. What were some of the keys to your transformation? Did anyone specifically encourage you? Did you make changes to your workout regimen?

4) It must have been discouraging to have been cut several times in your early career. There have been articles saying that had football not panned out for you, you might have become a truck driver, or pursued a career as a veterinarian. What or who helped you keep your focus on football to go the extra distance?

5) Who would you say have been your biggest influences? Which, if any, NFL players did you try to model yourself after? Who in your family inspired you to strive for more?

6) You've been a Steeler now for five full seasons, but you didn't get a chance to start regularly until 2007. If you had been able to start in 2004, 2005, and 2006, do you think you would have been as dominant then as you've been these past two season? Or were there still some things you were learning?

7) You became a starter the same year that Mike Tomlin became head coach. Did he bring anything to the table that helped you gain an extra edge that maybe you didn't have under Bill Cowher?

8) Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a legend from another era who seems to be able to adapt to the league rather than hold to more traditional styles of football. What's it like studying under a man old enough to be your grandfather, but so young at heart?

9) What have you been up to this off-season in terms of staying in shape, getting stronger, and staying focused?

10) Having already won a Superbowl in 2005, then experiencing a considerable letdown in 2006, what do you think the coaching staff and your fellow teammates will do to keep the Steelers from experiencing a similar drop-off in 2009?

11) Your nickname "Silverback" comes from a name given to an adult male gorilla. When did your teammates start calling you that? Do you know who came up with it first? What caused them to make the correlation?

12) How much easier would you say your job has been with LaMarr Woodley patrolling the other side of the line? How much credit is he due for your success?

13) Who do you feel was the overall greatest mentor in your development as a player?

14) Are there any younger Steelers that you've taken under your wing, or younger players that seem to seek you out regularly for advice and pointers?

15) By what, if any, philosophy do you try to live your life? Do you play football with the same philosophy?

16) There was in incident during this past year's Superbowl where replays showed you striking Aaron Francisco of the Arizona Cardinals during a special teams play. Announcers and fans say it was an offense worthy of ejection from the game. In your own words, tell us what the cameras didn't show or the broadcast didn't focus on. Was it a lapse in judgement on your part, or is there more to the story than is publicly discussed?

17) With regard to your refusal to attend the White House reception last week, a good many media outlets and fans feel it wasn't so much disrespecting the President, but more of an insult to Dan Rooney, a man who awarded you a hefty contract earlier this off-season. Have you spoken with Mr. Rooney about it, either before or after it was made public?

18) What has been your favorite individual moment in the NFL? What has been your most embarrassing?

19) Now that you've established yourself in the league, are there any specific goals you have set for your career? Sack leader? Superbowl MVP? First-ballot Hall of Famer?

20) When the time comes to hang up the cleats, what do you envision yourself doing? Do you plan to stay in football as a coach (be it at the collegiate or professional level)? Perhaps pursue training in the veterinary field? Or just sit back and rest?

Examining The Unstable AFC North

Steeltown Mike — Sat, 23 May 2009 16:57:27 -0400

Since the NFL's most recent realignment in 2002, the AFC North did not have a repeat champion until the Pittsburgh Steelers accomplished the feat in 2007 and 2008.

The division is so erratic that whichever team the experts prophesy will claim the crown, often, ends up underachieving.

Superbowl XL champion Pittsburgh was expected to follow up its fifth championship with a division title in 2006, but it missed the playoffs altogether.

In 2007, the Baltimore Ravens were lauded as the next juggernaut and were projected to repeat their 2006 performance. They won only five games.

The Cleveland Browns just missed out on winning the division in '07 due to a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Steelers, and they were the choice of many to supplant Pittsburgh in '08. Instead, injury and ineptitude culminated in a four-win campaign.

Much of the talk before this season's training camp indicates another two-horse race between the Steelers and the Ravens in 2009.

The NFL has averaged roughly six new teams to the 16-team playoff field every season since the realignment. The '08 season saw a one-win team from the previous year become a division champion (the Miami Dolphins).

Is it truly a stretch to envision either of Ohio's professional football teams in the AFC North's top spot at the beginning of January?

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The Pittsburgh Steelers are the champions.

While they will vie for their third consecutive division championship without the services of starting inside linebacker Larry Foote (who was signed by Detroit) and cornerback Bryant McFadden (Arizona), it appears that third-year pros Lawrence Timmons and William Gay are more than capable of taking their respective places.

Star linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, and All-Pro strong safety Troy Polamalu will return, and the defense should be its usual, dominant self under coordinator Dick LeBeau. Even the defensive line is not so old that it cannot still wreak havoc. First-round draft choice Evander "Ziggy" Hood will learn much from Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel this season, and he will be ready for regular duty in 2010.

As it has been the last few years, Pittsburgh's success will hinge on the health of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

The questions surrounding his offensive line are as numerous as the sacks it has collectively allowed.

Two offensive linemen were taken in the 2009 draft, and only one, second-round pick Kraig Urbik, is widely considered a challenger for the right guard position. A.Q. Shipley, center out of Penn State, is a long shot to challenge Justin Hartwig this season.

The Steelers also re-signed tackles Max Starks and Willie Colon, as well as guard Chris Kemoeatu and backup lineman Trai Essex. It seems the team's front office is satisfied with a Superbowl title, and less concerned with allowing the fourth-most sacks in the league (49) and boasting the fourth-worst rushing attack in terms of yards per carry (3.7).

As long as Roethlisberger is upright, the Steelers will always have a shot to win a game, a division, or a title, but even a large quarterback can only take so many hits.

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The Baltimore Ravens are hungry.

Last season, they fell just short of winning the division title (the tip of a football) and advancing to the Superbowl (Troy Polamalu's interception ultimately denied them).

Quarterback Joe Flacco does not figure to experience a "sophomore slump", just as another popular AFC North QB a few seasons ago, and second-year coach John Harbaugh knows anything is possible.

At first glance, it seems like the Ravens are pretty much intact. Pulling back a layer, however, reveals that this team looks poised to take a step back.

Baltimore eventually re-signed linebacker Ray Lewis, but one of these seasons will be the one he falls from the tier of the elite. And, as Lewis had expressed great interest in going to another team this off-season, there may also be a small, but noticeable loss of respect for a player who has long been the "heart" of the defense.

The franchise-tagging of outside linebacker Terrell Suggs was a good move, but the loss of inside linebacker Bart Scott and defensive coordinator Rex Ryan (to the Jets) may disrupt the chaotic harmony of the Ravens' defensive front seven.

Running back Le'Ron McClain could constitute Baltimore's "Weapon X" in 2009, but Flacco will have to maintain his 6.9 yards per pass average to keep the opposing defenses from keying on McClain, and he'll have to exceed it to keep the the team a championship contender. The health of Todd Heap will factor into Flacco's success.

Draft-wise, there is no player that screams "instant impact", but offensive lineman Michael Oher and defensive end Paul Kruger will help keep their respective units from falling too far when age catches up to Baltimore's present starters.

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The Cincinnati Bengals are optimistic.

They spent most of last season without an experienced quarterback. Carson Palmer was injured most of the season, playing in only three games and throwing only four touchdowns. His replacement, Ryan Fitzpatrick (now in Buffalo) played in 13 games and threw only eight touchdowns against nine interceptions.

The Bengals' scoring output in 2008 was the lowest in all of pro football, and it was barely half of what they amassed in 2007 (204 versus 380).

Defensively, Cincinnati allowed the most points in the division (364), but that number was better than any team in the NFC West. In terms of total yards allowed, they were in the league's top half.

Palmer has told the press that he likes his team's chances, but that will rest squarely on him. The off-season claimed prolific wide receiver T.J Houshmanzadeh (Seattle). The acquisition of Laveranues Coles, while a decent receiver, does not provide a replacement. Chad "Johnson" Ochocinco is is not only volatile on the field, but also in his own locker room.

The most significant keys to Cincy's success depend on the defense continuing to build on last season and Carson Palmer improving his fourth quarter efficiency from 2007. That season, Palmer's QB rating in the fourth quarter was roughly 65. A tired defense and an inefficient quarterback spells certain doom in close contests.

The Bengals did have eleven draft picks, but the first few were not at the so-called "skill" positions. It will also be interesting to see how strong safety Roy Williams and defensive tackle Tank Johnson contribute to the evolution of the Bengal 'D'.

There are still too many issues in the Queen City to believe that it will be able to challenge Pittsburgh if the defending champs stay healthy.

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The Cleveland Browns are adrift.

By season's end, injuries had riddled them so much at the quarterback position that Bruce Gradkowski started the final game, playing in an offense he had just started to learn on an emergency basis.

Perhaps the number of quarterback injuries and an ineffective rushing attack (3.9 yards per rush average) prompted the powers-that-be to make sure they drafted a prominent offensive lineman (Alex Mack), but they traded down to get him.

Cleveland's front office brought in Eric Mangini to replace Romeo Crennel. It is unclear where Mangini's priorities lie. The Browns have several needs to be filled, and instead of focusing on making one or two positions deep and dominant, he appears to be trying to affix band-aids to all of them at once.

The Browns need a reliable backup for tailback Jamal Lewis, but they drafted a running back in the final round (with the 195th pick), and signed untested free agent Noah Herron.

The Browns need to make sure that whichever quarterback is healthy at the moment has someone to catch his passes. They lost tight end Kellen Winslow, Jr. to Tampa Bay and possibly wide receiver Donte Stallworth to a charge of vehicular manslaughter while DUI.

The solution, for now, has been to sign second- or third-tier WRs in David Patten and Mike Furrey (and so-so tight end Robert Royal), draft promising wideout Brian Robiskie, and gamble on receiver Mohamed Massaquoi. Braylon Edwards, coming off a miserable season in 2008, and Joshua Cribbs are the only receivers who have any real rapport with quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn.

It is unlikely that Mangini's new offense (which he will no doubt have) will be effective at first.

While Cleveland's pass defense was in the middle of the heap, its run-stopping unit was near the bottom. This is where Mangini may have done the best job. Signing former Jet Eric Barton, and linebackers David Bowens and Bo Ruud may help plug up the middle.

Between the two teams from the Buckeye State, the Cleveland Browns have the better shot at surprising the division. They have enough question marks that, if they mostly answer "yes", could produce a winner.

Muted Expectations: Steelers Not Primed For Repeat

Steeltown Mike — Wed, 13 May 2009 23:04:56 -0400

Just hours after the Pittsburgh Steelers won their NFL-record sixth Superbowl title, talk in the Steel City shifted from "the joy of six" to "seven would be heaven".

The 2009 Steelers will look to emulate the teams of 1975 and 1979 who went on to repeat as champions, rather than the squad of 2006, who crashed back to Earth without a playoff appearance, one season after winning it all.

At one of his many press conferences following the Steelers 27-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Superbowl XLIII, Head Coach Mike Tomlin was quick to keep the Q&A focused on the game and the season that had just ended. He said that "repeat" and "defending" (as in "champion") would be stricken from his locker room's vernacular.

No one expects Tomlin to require any less effort from his players in the upcoming season. His job is to prepare his players for each game and piece together enough victories to win a game, a division, and a championship. Many would say his remarks were more to keep his team humble, or keep it looking forward instead of back.

A select few might suggest that Pittsburgh was fortunate to claim last season's title, its most prominent strengths overcoming its most glaring flaws.

Can the Steelers do it again in 2009?

While they have a defense that is shaping up to be another dominant unit and a quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger who can make the improbable happen, fortunes in the sports world tend to even out.

The team's biggest weakness is its offensive line. In 2008, Big Ben was sacked 46 times during the regular season and eight times in three playoff games. That is an average of nearly three times per game, and it does not include the numerous hits he took after getting rid of the ball.

Add to that the punishment of the two previous years (sacked more than 45 times in each), and Steeler fans should be grateful that Roethlisberger's nickname is "Big Ben", and not "Gentle Ben".

The Steelers have, so far, made no signings in the offseason for a solid center or right tackle. Their only draft acquisitions for the front five were an early third-rounder (Kraig Urbik from Wisconsin, who may contend for a guard spot) and a seventh round pick (center A.Q. Shipley from Penn State, who may not even make the team).

Roethlisberger's body can only take so much abuse, so if he goes down, backup quarterback Charlie Batch is too old, and backup Dennis Dixon is too green to pick up the slack.

Besides a more stalwart O-line, the other facet that could help take pressure off Roethlisberger is an effective running game.

Willie Parker, the Steelers' starting running back for most of the season, rushed for a below-league average 3.8 yards per carry in 2008. Some might argue that a bad offensive line would naturally lend itself to a sub-par rushing performance, but somehow, third-down back Mewelde Moore managed to do well. He rushed for 4.2 yards per carry, which was about the league average, with approximately 40 percent of the team's carries.

Relying on Parker to keep the Steelers out of third-and-long situations has been an uphill battle. Parker can put together some impressive totals, but many of those yards come after Roethlisberger has already managed to escape pressure and throw touchdowns for a lead.

Pittsburgh's offensive line and its running back situation do not compliment each other, and the incompatibility nearly spelled disaster for the Steelers in several 2008 contests.

The X-factor is the return of second-year back Rashard Mendenhall. Unlike Parker, he has the size to be able to break tackles, but it will not matter if he can't find any cracks the offensive line may provide.

The other area of concern is the aging defensive line. Casey Hampton, Aaron Smith, and Brett Keisel are all over 30 years old. First-round draft choice Ziggy Hood provides a young backup, but he will need a season or two of experience to adapt to Dick LeBeau's 3-4 style defense (Hood's Missouri Tigers operated out of a 4-3 base).

There are plenty of weapons on defense, though, to keep damage to a minimum should one of the D-lineman suffer an injury. Still, even healthy, it will be a tall task to stay in the top two or three in virtually every defensive category for a second consecutive season.

The receiving corps, a major concern among Steeler fans, should be fine without Nate Washington; Limas Sweed should improve significantly with more experience during games. He has already shown the ability to get open behind an opposing defense. The Steelers needed to draft another offensive lineman with their third pick, not wideout Mike Wallace.

They also signed five free agents just this month, but they were a kicker, a punter, a cornerback, and two more wide receivers.

The 2008 Steelers were only barely cohesive enough to bring a sixth Lombardi trophy to Pittsburgh, and the 2009 edition will be hard-pressed to claim a seventh.

It is not realistic to expect Roethlisberger to be able to compensate for the failings of his protectors to such a great degree two years in a row.

It is not realistic to expect the fourth-worst rushing offense in the NFL to keep opposing defenses honest.

It is not realistic to expect a defense, even with most of its core intact, to come up with game-changing turnovers and hard-nosed goal line stands time after time.

And while Mike Tomlin will work hard to get his players ready from week to week, deep down, he may not expect it either.

Key Statistic Points to Detroit Red Wings-Washington Capitals Cup Final

Steeltown Mike — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 21:07:38 -0400

It's the time of year again to test the Shots on Goal Differential (SOGD) Steeltown Sports has been watching and modifying for the past several years (refer to this article).

The theory is that total goals scored for and against, goals-against averages, and power play opportunities are inconsequential in determining who will raise the Stanley Cup in June.

The Shots on Goal Differential is calculated simply by taking the total number of shots a team takes in a game, and subtracting the number of shots given up. Over the course of a season, it's a decent indicator of how good a team truly is.

Perennial contenders like Detroit have a SOGD approaching +10, which is elite. Teams that are on the downswing (like the Penguins of a few years ago before the NHL lockout), tend to be consistently in the negative.

Looking at last year, the Western Conference teams sent four teams with a positive SOGD and four teams with a negative to the playoffs, and the first round matchups pitted a positive vs. a negative. The positive teams all advanced to round two.

The Eastern Conference didn't shake out so evenly. In fact, three of the four semi-finalists had negative SOGDs. The Penguins had the worst SOGD in the league among all playoff teams, yet they got to the Final.

Therefore, there are still some bugs to be worked out in the theory, although its importance is evident.

There has been no Stanley Cup winner with a negative SOGD since the 1990-91 Penguins, but, in that case, there was a significant mitigating circumstance; at the trade deadline, they shanghaied the Hartford Whalers for the ultimate face-off man in Ronnie Francis and a juggernaut on defense in Ulf Samuelsson.

It's very possible that those Penguins' SOGD was already so far in the negative that even if the Pens were in the positive from the trade deadline on, there wouldn't have been enough time to vault them into the positive.

Last season, the Penguins acquired Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis, and Hal Gill at the trade deadline, and that may have made all the difference.

Things could be similar for this year's Penguins.

For the season, the Pens' SOGD is -1.3. They bottomed out somewhere near -4. Since Dan Bylsma took over for Michel Therrien as Penguins head coach on February 15, the Penguins are a +4.4.

Since the trade deadline (March 4), the Penguins are nearly +6.5.

This year's chart displays the seed, the team, its season-long SOGD, and, in parentheses, each playoff qualfier's SOGD after the trade deadline. Negative SOGD are marked in boldface.

Eastern Conference
1. Boston   -0.5 (-1.9)
2. Washington +4.0 (+7.0)
3. New Jersey +3.5 (+4.0)
4. Pittsburgh   -1.3 (+6.5)
5. Philadelphia -2.8 (-2.4)
6. Carolina   +3.1 (+2.8)
7. NY Rangers +2.7 (+3.7)
8. Montreal   -1.7 (-4.3)
===================================
9. Florida   -5.3
10. Buffalo   -0.9
11. Ottawa   +0.8
12. Toronto   +1.5
13. Atlanta   -4.6
14. Tampa Bay   -4.4
15. NY Islanders -4.6

Western Conference
1. San Jose   +6.0 (+3.1)
2. Detroit   +8.4 (+9.0)
3. Vancouver   -0.7 (-1.3)
4. Chicago   +4.1 (+5.0)
5. Calgary   +2.5 (+4.5)
6. St. Louis   -0.9 (+0.9)
7. Columbus   +1.1 (-1.1)
8. Anaheim   -0.2 (+3.3)
========================
9. Minnesota   -3.2
10. Nashville   -0.4
11. Edmonton   -4.5
12. Dallas   +0.8
13. Phoenix   -3.5
14. Los Angeles +1.0
15. Colorado   -0.2

Based on the above, the following two first-round picks could be made with a certain degree of certainty.

- Detroit Red Wings over Columbus Blue Jackets.

Even though Columbus seems to play Detroit tough during the regular season, the defending Stanley Cup champs have an advantage in SOGD of +7.3 (+10.1 since the trade deadline), and they're facing a franchise making its initial trip to the postseason. This is the lock of the first round.

- Pittsburgh Penguins over Philadelphia Flyers.

The East pits season-long negative SOGD against negative and positive vs. positive in an odd coincidence, but the trade deadline difference between these two teams in particular serves as the tie-breaker. Pittsburgh is the clear statistical favorite (+8.9).

All the top seeds in the East should hold serve. The most intriguing series is the New Jersey Devils versus the Carolina Hurricanes. Carolina goaltender Cam Ward is playing on another planet right now. A Hurricane series victory could only be scored as a light upset.

Upset watch in the West: Anaheim Ducks over the San Jose Sharks. Anaheim actually has the SOGD edge since the trade deadline. Home ice advantage may not help the Sharks against a team that won the Cup just two years ago.

The statistic shows that St. Louis may pull the upset over Vancouver, but Canucks netminder Roberto Luongo could be the difference-maker here.

Meanwhile, Chicago and Calgary should be the most entertaining series in the first round.

Long term, it looks like a Detroit/Washington Stanley Cup Final, but the Penguins, the Sharks, or even the Blackhawks or the Flames could crash the "Rematch of 1998".

If the winners don't break out as the SOGD stats spell out, praise will be heaped upon the opposing goalie in direct proportion to how great the differential is between the teams.

In any case, the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs should feature more series that go at least six games than last year.

Preparing for the Aftermath: A Guide for Steeler Fans

Steeltown Mike — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 16:06:18 -0500

This post is to Steeler fans, from a Steeler fan.

It is not a premature declaration of victory.

After the lessons "learned" following Superbowl XL, the fans of Steeler Country need to prepare for the fallout of a possible Superbowl XLIII victory.

I'm sure most Steeler fans think, "Who cares what Seattle fans and other folks who don't know the game think about the result of XL? We have the Lombardi. They don't."

While there's something to be said for that, we don't do ourselves any favors as a fan base by being classless. Steeler fans are probably the most hated in the football world, and that doesn't include our division rivals. We're probably a main reason that a lot of the Know-Nothings jumped on the "Seattle got robbed" bandwagon so readily.

We, as Steeler fans, really need to chill, root for our team, and not root against the other team.

All that said, here is a quick guide on how to handle the result of Superbowl XLIII:

IF PITTSBURGH WINS...

1) Talk about how impressive the Cardinals run to the Superbowl was, not how they "suck" because they couldn't beat a defense that has given up very little all year (or, possibly, an offense that has had to fight top defenses all season before facing a middle-of-the-road D in Arizona).

2) If it's a close game, regardless of whether the Know-Nothings say the refs gave it to Pittsburgh or "it's what the league wanted", comments more along the lines of "They gave us a run" or "They definitely deserved to be in the Superbowl" will carry more weight with the indifferent crowd.

But, if worse comes to worst, a comment like, "Champions overcome those penalties/bad (non)calls/etc" will suffice. In any event, if you're chatting on a message board, TRY NOT TO TYPE IN ALL CAPS! IT MAKES YOU LOOK LIKE YOU HAVE A SHOE-SIZED IQ. Especially if you don't punctuate.

3) Tying in with No. 2, the louder you get, the dumber you seem, and the fewer friends you're going to make. Football fans already dislike teams that are "too successful". Consider how much most fans wanted the Patriots to lose by the end of their run. Pittsburgh folks were cheering for a New York team last year, for crying out loud. An NFC team, to boot! And, most of the disdain for New England was already there before the videotaping allegations came to light.

4) Don't gloat. Better to smile and keep a level tone when challenged by a member of another fan base. They already know you have 6 Lombardi Trophies. You don't have to tell them. Let them feel worse on their own and keep your own blood pressure down. Besides, it's probably that neither you nor them had anything to do with the outcome.

IF ARIZONA WINS...

1) Do not whine. Even if the game ends like the "Nedney Dive" in Tennessee in January 2003, or the Cardinals appear to be psychic like the January 2005 Patriots, Do. Not. Whine. Consider how much Steeler fans dislike Seattle fans because they continue to remain cloaked in denial. And the more time that passes where they still bellyache, the more infantile it all seems.

I think we've done pretty well with losses as a fan base, honestly. I don't see much complaining about the Chargers win in January 1995, Denver's win in January 1998, the aforementioned Tennessee game, or either Patriots win. The most complaining I've seen is the occasional claim that Neil O'Donnell took a bribe to throw Superbowl XXX. That's ridiculous. A ring is priceless.

While some of us may have our suspicions, we realize we can't change the past. Whatever the case, especially considering the franchise will still have 5 Lombardi trophies, whining about losing out on a sixth, A) will change nothing, and B) will draw more disdain.

2) Credit their effort. "Warner was solid. He was never phased." Or, perhaps, "I didn't think Edgerrin could get it done against our D." In the course of conversation, it would be acceptable to say, "If only Ike hadn't dropped that interception", as long as it's followed up by a shrug as if to say, "but he didn't." The point: an approach more along the lines of "they wanted it more", will go a lot further than, "we didn't do enough."

3) Do not try to kick anyone's ass. It changes nothing, and it could result in a criminal record. Plus, it has the same effect as whining.

The Steelers are a model franchise. They have some weak links, like questionable drafting (our D-line and O-line are aging and incompetent, respectively, while we draft wide receivers), but I don't think any team has taken the Steelers lightly in a long time.

We should work to build our fan base, not alienate those who aren't on our side today. Respectful conduct will go along way toward that.

Whether the Steelers win or lose.

History Against the Penguins

Steeltown Mike — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 22:28:00 -0400

(from the sports blog Steeltown Sports)

The Penguins are in trouble.

Those who have read any of my recent hockey-related posts, or heard me broadcast a word on the subject of the NHL, know that I am fixated on a particular hockey statistic.

The statistic is Shots-on-Goal Differential. For the hockey novice, it is simply the number of shots a team takes per game, minus the number of shots a team surrenders per game (the shots, of course, have to be on net). Over the course of a season, the average solidifies.

I continually run into doubters, saying that it's nothing substantial.

Make no mistake, there is a tendency.

In the past 10 years (and perhaps further), no team with a negative Shots-on-Goal Differential (henceforth referred to as "SOGD") has won the Stanley Cup.

In 2006, Carolina won the prize with a +0.7, the lowest in the decade. They faced an eighth-seeded Edmonton Oiler team with a +4.2 SOGD and were taken to seven games, even with the loss of Dwayne Roloson for the Western Conference representatives (who was commonly credited as being a key component in Edmonton's outstanding run).

Last season, six of the 16 playoff teams entered with a negative SOGD. Of the six, five were eliminated in the first round. The only survivor (Buffalo), played a team with a slightly worse SOGD (New York Islanders) in round one. Buffalo then scored a statistical upset, when they defeated the New York Rangers in six games (despite their -1.5 SOGD vs. New York's +3.1).

Last season in the Western Conference, Anaheim scored the series upset over Detroit, despite their season's SOGD average being approximately six shots fewer. Again, top-notch goalie play (Jean-Sebastien Giguere) commonly is agreed to have propelled the Ducks.

In 2008, exactly half of the field has an average SOGD in the negative. Tied for fourth worst in the league, in that statistic, (as well as tied for worst in the playoff field with Minnesota) is none other than Pittsburgh.

Despite all their offensive talent, even on the blue line, the Penguins still spend more time in their own zone, on average, than they do in their opponents'.

The one ray of hope for Crosby and Co. is that they were the beneficiaries of a blockbuster trade that brought Pascal Dupuis and Marian Hossa to the team, long after the negative SOGD was cemented. They also acquired a reliable defenseman in Hal Gill.

Hossa and Crosby have not been healthy at the same time for long, so it's impossible to tell whether that would have helped generate more shots for Pittsburgh and thereby alter the differential toward the positive.

Root like hell, Penguins fans, but know that the odds are against them.

=================

And now, to the rest of the league...

Here, for your reference, are the conference standings with the final SOGD for each team:

Eastern Conference
1. z-Montreal -2.5

2. y-Pittsburgh -3.1
3. y-Washington +3.4
4. x-New Jersey +1.3
5. x-NY Rangers +5.5
6. x-Philadelphia -3.0
7. x-Ottawa +0.2
8. x-Boston -1.9
9. Carolina +3.7
10. Buffalo +1.9
11. Florida -2.5
12. Toronto +1.7
13. NY Islanders -0.6
14. Atlanta -8.1
15. Tampa Bay +0.5

Western Conference
1. z-Detroit +10.9
2. y-San Jose +5.5
3. y-Minnesota -3.1

4. x-Anaheim -0.7
5. x-Dallas +0.6
6. x-Colorado +1.4
7. x-Calgary -0.2

8. x-Nashville -0.2
9. Edmonton -5.1
10. Chicago -0.6
11. Vancouver -1.4
12. Phoenix -0.2
13. Columbus +1.6
14. St. Louis -1.3
15. Los Angeles -3.4

Based on semi-recent history, it appears that the New York Rangers are a sleeper team in the East, and Washington might also be poised for a legitimate run.

The only potential sleeper in the West appears to be Colorado, though they may possibly be a step too slow with their aging vets in the second round against (likely) Detroit or San Jose.

All that said, don't be surprised to see both New York and Washington in the Eastern Conference Finals, and top seeds Detroit and San Jose vie for the Western Conference Crown.

Taking it another step, based on the Red Wings' goalie play and Washington perhaps being on the edge of a burnout due to their remarkable surge and relative lack of experience, perhaps we'll see the Rangers and the Sharks for the Cup.

Expounding just a shade more, with New York and San Jose dead even on the SOGD (+5.5), we could see a seven-game thriller, with the final edge belonging to the Rangers based on slightly better team save percentage (91.1 percent vs. 90.6 percent).

Feel free to argue, of course, but I would wait a round or two before becoming too vehement.

Littlefield's Legacy: Lynchburg Loses

Steeltown Mike — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 05:02:59 -0400

(this is the first of a possible series illustrating the mismanagement of the Pittsburgh Pirates under former General Manager David Littlefield)

The Lynchburg Hillcats fell Friday night, 7-3, to the defending Carolina League Champion Frederick Keys.

The significance of one minor league team's victory over another is largely muted by the buzz of the multi-billion dollar business that is Major League Baseball.

It is dulled all the more by the fact that Lynchburg is merely the High-A affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Frederick belongs to the Baltimore Orioles organization, and both of the parent teams are years away from contending.

What is significant about this particular game (to a follower of either franchise, or any casual baseball fan wondering how deeply the troubles of the Pittsburgh Pirates run) is this:

Baltimore Orioles first-round draft pick Matt Wieters hit a pair of home runs in his professional debut, going two-for-three with a walk.

Last week, I noted how the Pittsburgh Pirates only need to be previewed by looking at their upper management and ownership.

The Pirates passed on Wieters for a relief pitcher/closer from the Clemson Tigers, Daniel Moskos. Keep in mind, this was the fourth overall pick in the 2007 draft.

The Orioles organization, in the very next draft slot, scooped Wieters up, much like an opportunistic hockey forward netting a sloppy rebound.

The dividends were as immediate as they can be.

Of course, former general manager Dave Littlefield is not the only one to blame. Their former scouting director, Ed Creech has much to do with the state of the Pirates minor league system. They drafted for signability (Wieters was represented by the ever-greedy Scott Boras), rather than doing what a team is supposed to do: take the best available player on the board.

Nevertheless, it happened on Littlefield's watch.

The plot thickens as, tonight (April 5, 2008), Moskos is scheduled to be the starter for the Hillcats.

Moskos vs. Wieters.

Something tells me we're in store for some great cosmic irony.