Bleacher Report - Articles by Kyle Rekofke

Can the Oregon Ducks Make the NCAA Tournament?

Kyle Rekofke — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 13:22:06 -0500

At 15-10 overall and 6-7 in the Pac-10, the Oregon Ducks have some serious work to do if they want to make the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

While the Selection Committee evaluates teams and not conferences, the importance of the conference standings cannot be overstated.

Why? Because it is awfully hard for the Committee to justify taking a seventh place team over a fifth place team from the same conference when the emphasis is on a team’s entire body of work.

With that in mind the Pac-10 race takes on a great deal of importance as five teams, all within a half game of each other, battle for fourth through eighth place. And that's not to mention the higher you place the better your seed will be for the conference tournament.

Although seeding is not as significant as the final standings it is not like there are going to be any easy games in the conference tournament besides Oregon State.

Beaver-bashing aside, the Ducks have five games left and in only one game will they be a significant favorite. You guessed it, that game happens to be at Oregon State.

The other games include the Southern California road trip this weekend and visits from the Arizona schools to close conference play.

After dropping a game they absolutely had to win against Washington State last Saturday, the Ducks face almost a must-win Thursday at USC. It is highly unlikely that the Ducks will beat UCLA on Saturday, so Thursday’s game takes on extra importance.

A week from Saturday the Ducks will almost certainly send the Beavers to 0-16 and then the Ducks will have a crucial home stand against the Arizona schools.

Earlier this year the Ducks had the lead in the final minutes against ASU, but lost the game late. They rebounded, however, to defeat Arizona two days later. That win came with a major caveat though, because Arizona was without the services of super frosh Jerryd Bayless.

Realistically, the Ducks need to go 3-2 down the stretch to have any chance, whereas a 4-1 finish would likely get them in the Big Dance.

They have a decent shot to beat SC's injury riddled squad—the Trojans played only six players on Sunday against UCLA and made only two substitutions in the entire game.

Basically, it is easiest to assume a loss to the Bruins and a victory against the Beavers. That would leave the Ducks with what amounts to three toss-up games.

If they win all three they should get in no matter what they do in the Pac-10 tournament.

If they win two of them, Oregon would likely need a win or two in the conference tournament.

If they lose two of three then, the Ducks would need an extended run in the Pac-10 tourney.

If the Ducks lose all three, it is probably time to start printing the NIT tickets.

In summary, there are so many ifs it is hard to definitively say anything at this point. The only certainty is that the Ducks need to start playing better basketball if they are going to make the NCAA Tournament, and it must start Thursday night at the Galen Center.

2008 NFL Draft: The Year of the Junior Running Back

Kyle Rekofke — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 17:56:23 -0500

1. Darren McFadden, Arkansas Junior

The top back in the class of 2008 is also the best overall prospect. He rushed for 1,830 as a junior and eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark all three years he spent in Fayetteville.

Despite his status as the best overall prospect, it is unlikely that he will be the first pick as the Dolphins already have Ronnie Brown.

The new front office may decide to trade the pick, however and rumors are flying about Arkansas alum Jerry Jones wanting McFadden badly.

If the top three stays set, McFadden will likely land in Atlanta with pick number three.

2. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon Junior

Snoop (as he is known around Oregon) is not quite as fast as McFadden, but has a tremendous combination of power and speed. He set the University of Oregon record rushing for 1,722 yards this season.

An immensely talented back, Stewart may actually be a better pro (where he can run out of the I-formation) than a college player (where he did his damage out of the spread).

The only real knock on Stewart is that he is somewhat injury prone. The fact that Adrian Peterson had similar concerns last year and still won Rookie of the Year should help squash some fears.

Look for his stock to rise when he hits the NFL combine at the end of this month. His measurables are exactly what scouts look for in a running back.

Stewart will likely come off the board somewhere between picks 10 and 20 with the Bears (if they don’t go QB), with Cardinals or Texans also being likely landing places.

You can be sure that the Seahawks would be ecstatic if the Lacey, WA native fell to them at 25, but chances are Stewart will be long gone.

3. Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois Junior

Mendenhall is a powerful runner, who has some speed as well. In his first season as the starter in Champaign he rushed for 1,681 yards to help the Illinois get to the Rose Bowl.

He is less experienced than McFadden and Stewart, but that may be a plus in the eyes of some front office executives. Running backs have the shortest careers in the NFL and Mendenhall has taken fewer hits in college then the two guys ahead of him.

Mendenhall’s stock rose sharply when he rushed for 155 yards and caught five balls for 59 yards against USC in the Rose Bowl.

Mendenhall is also likely to go somewhere between picks 10 and 20. He is rated very similarly to Stewart, so it will be a battle to see who comes off the board first.

4. Jamaal Charles, Texas Junior

Another junior running back with great top-end speed. He is smaller and more elusive than the backs that precede him on this list.

He rushed for 1,619 yards this season, including a 290 yard game against Nebraska. Charles will need to work on his hands and his blitz pick-ups to succeed in the NFL.

As a former track star he will definitely run well at the combine. Scouts will be looking at his strength, but he should have an immediate future in the NFL as a third down back or kick return specialist.

Charles has a shot at the end of the first round if he performs well at the combine. Dallas and Seattle could be in the market for a running back at the end of the first round.

5. Felix Jones, Arkansas Junior

Jones played second fiddle in Arkansas during his three years as a Razorback. But, he has blazing speed like Charles and is an electrifying return man.

Experience may be an issue, since unlike everyone else on this list he was never a feature back. Yet, he averaged 7.5 yards per carry for his career and seems like a good character guy (not complaining about his role behind McFadden).

Much like Mendenhall and Stewart, Charles and Jones are very close in the eyes of scouts. Jones may land in Dallas if they don't trade up to get McFadden.

Sleepers:

Chris Johnson, East Carolina Senior

4.25 40 time!

Ryan Torain, Arizona State Senior

Hurt early this year, but had a nice junior season.

NCAA Tournament: Who Will Go Dancing from the Pac-10?

Kyle Rekofke — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 12:21:18 -0500

Having recently passed the midway point of Pac-10 play, it's time to look at the NCAA Tournament chances for each team in the nation’s toughest conference.

There are no easy games in-league, as we saw Sunday, when the ninth-place Huskies took out the mighty UCLA Bruins.

The conference has never put seven teams in the tournament, but if there were ever a year, this is it.

It is certainly debatable, but a 9-9 record with a win in the conference tournament should get you in the Big Dance.

Generally, .500 records are bad news, but in the Pac-10 it holds more weight because they play a true round-robin, unlike the Big-Ten, SEC, Big XII, or ACC.

So with 9-9 as the baseline, lets breakdown the chances of the Pac-9, since it will take a fairly significant upset for the Oregon State Beavers to not go 0-18.

UCLA 21-3 (9-2)

Remaining schedule:

Home—Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford, Cal

Road—USC, Arizona State, Arizona

One of the best teams in the nation.

Kevin Love is a dominant big man and Darren Collison is the best point guard in the league.

At this point, the Bruins are playing for seeding in the Big Dance and a conference title.

They would love to be the #1 seed out west as they would greatly benefit from a Anaheim, Phoenix path to the Final Four.

Odds on Dancing—100 percent

STANFORD 20-3 (9-2)

Remaining schedule:

Home—Cal, Washington, Washington State

Road—USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona

Very solid inside with the Lopez twins, Lawrence Hill, and Taj Finger.

They need to get more out of their guards, especially at the point, where Mitch Johnson seems over matched in most every game.

Not likely to take the title from the Bruins, but there is a clear gap between the Cardinals and the mess of teams vying for 3rd through 7th .

Odds on Dancing: 100 percent

ARIZONA 15-8 (5-5)

Remaining schedule:

Home—Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA

Road—Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Oregon

Possibly the most dangerous team in the country not in the Top 25 right now.

They are a completely different team with Bayless healthy, and his absence was a big reason for their losses at home to Oregon and at Arizona State.

The schedule sets up nicely for them as they have the two “easiest” road trips left.

Solid out of conference work as well with wins over Texas A&M and @ Houston.

Despite a somewhat shocking loss today to ASU at home they are still in pretty good shape to earn a bid.

Odds on Dancing: 75 percent

WASHINGTON STATE 18-5 (6-5)

Remaining schedule:

Home—Arizona State, Arizona, Washington

Road—Oregon State, Oregon, Cal, Stanford

The Cougs got a win they needed against USC, but still are not a lock for the tourney.

At 6-5 with likely upcoming wins over Oregon State and Washington, they would still need to win two of the other five to feel really safe.

That could prove difficult given that Arizona blew them out, ASU and Oregon took them to the wire, and they just got swept by the Bay Area schools.

Outside of two nice road wins at Baylor and Gonzaga, their non-conference schedule was excessively soft.

For a team once ranked in the top five, missing the tournament is a real possibility, but ultimately they should slide in.

Odds on Dancing: 60 percent to 65 percent

USC 15-8 (6-5)

Remaining schedule:

Home—UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford

Road—Arizona, Arizona State

Despite the rocky start, the Trojans are in a good position to get into the tournament.

They have five of their last seven at home and have been playing well over the past few weeks.

If they are on the bubble they will hold a trump card over anyone they are compared to (the win at UCLA). The key games for the Trojans will likely be the visits from the Bay Area schools who swept them to begin Pac-10 play.

Odds on Dancing: 65 percent to 70 percent

CALIFORNIA 14-8 (5-6)

Remaining schedule:

Home—Washington State, Washington

Road—Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, USC, UCLA

Their schedule is the polar opposite of the Trojans, as the Bears will play five of their last seven on the road.

Oregon dealt a serious blow to the Bears' hopes on Saturday in Haas Pavilion.

With the schedule against them and two losses to the team closest in the standings to them (Oregon), the Bears’ chances look bleak.

Odds on Dancing: 25 percent

ARIZONA STATE 15-7 (5-5)

Remaining schedule:

Home—Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC

Road—Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Oregon State

Good looking win over Xavier, but not much else in their non-conference schedule.

Impressive sweep over the rival Wildcats, especially the win today at Arizona.

The win snapped their five-game skid and the schedule is not too bad coming down the stretch.

Most likely they will need to split their remaining road games and win at least two of their home games to have a shot.

Odds on Dancing: 25 percent

OREGON 14-9 (5-6)

Remaining schedule:

Home—Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, Arizona

Road—USC, UCLA, Oregon State

The Ducks won a very big bubble game at California in impressive fashion.

At 5-6, if the Ducks win out at home and beat OSU on the road, they should get in.

That will be difficult, however, as they continue to get erratic play out of the point guard position.

In non-conference play the Ducks have a win that keeps looking better (at Kansas State), but also have an equally bad loss on a neutral floor to Oakland.

Odds on Dancing: 35 percent

WASHINGTON 13-11 (4-7)

Remaining schedule:

Home—Arizona, Arizona State

Road—Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Cal, Washington State

The Huskies picked up a huge win against UCLA, but still have some serious work to do.

Jon Brockman is a force down low and one of the most under-appreciated players in a conference full of great ones.

Washington does not get much out of their guards, and if Ryan Appleby is not hitting threes, the Huskies struggle mightily to score.

If Justin Dentmon can play like he did against the Bruins they have a chance, but it will be an uphill battle.

Odds on Dancing: 5 percent

The Pac-10 should get five bids no problem and a sixth seems likely.

At this point my best guess is that UCLA, Stanford, USC, Arizona, and Washington State all make it fairly easily.

For the last bid it will be a battle between Cal, Oregon, and ASU.

If the Ducks can get a sweep of the Washington schools this weekend they will be in the best position thanks to their two wins over Cal and a home game still to play against Arizona State.