Bleacher Report - Articles by Nathan B

Penn State Basketball Continues Its Outstanding Iowa Hawkeye Impersonation

Nathan B — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:20:50 -0500

Wow, the NIT sure is looking nice right now for the Nittany Lions. Items in the rearview mirror may be far less significant than they appear.

Apparently jealous of Iowa's horrendous start with true nice-guy Mr. Lickliter at the helm, Penn State continues to try to one-up the Hawkeyes and prove that they, too, belong in the basement of the Big Ten.

Their efforts today resulted in a 63-60 loss to Tulane that wasn't as close a game as the score indicates. Tulane led by 10 with eight minutes left in the game, but PSU rallied, which itself is rather surprising, considering the Lions' final field goal percentage of 27.6.

This atrocity of a game followed on the heels of Penn State's drubbing at the hands of UNC-Wilmington. Losses to the Seahawks and Green Wave were not quite what the NIT defending champions were expecting in Charleston. In fact, there are few sports where anyone should log consecutive losses to teams named the Seahawks and Green Wave.

This is a really poor version of the Charleston Shuffle and will definitely not be remembered as a "classic" in Nittany Lion basketball lore, except for classically displaying that Talor Battle has absolutely no one on this team who can help him win.

He's also proven he's not quite ready to do it himself, turning in a 3-for-13 performance, including a paltry one-of-five from behind the arc. At least Battle makes his free throws, though (logging another eight-of-eight after last night's 11-of-12 effort).

Sophomore guard Chris Babb was invisible for the second game in a row, though not quite invisible enough, shooting one-of-six on his three-point attempts before mercifully being yanked for most of the game.

Junior forward Jeff Brooks was one of the few brighter spots for Penn State, but no one has shown enough consistency to indicate that PSU is even guaranteed of being able to beat Indiana or Iowa this year. Consider it a three-team race...for the basement.

Penn State-UNCW: Bad Night for the Bottom of the Big Ten

Nathan B — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:56:27 -0500

This is not the way Penn State and Talor Battle envisioned their trip to Charleston.

The Lions are shuffling out of the first round of the Charleston Classic after getting blasted by a weak UNC-Wilmington squad 80-69. Worse yet, Penn State was never really in the game.

Battle attempted to carry the team, scoring 29 (eight-of-23 from the field, including two-of-nine from behind the arc and 11 of 12 from the free throw line) and playing every single minute.

Unfortunately, the team as a whole shot a miserable .323 (.268 on three-point attempts). Perhaps more foreboding, the defense gave up huge numbers to UNCW (.574 overall, .625 on three-point attempts) and lost by 11 despite having just five turnovers to the Seahawks' 15.

Penn State couldn't even outrebound the diminutive Seahawks; both teams had 30 total rebounds. UNCW had lost previous games at Appalachian State and home vs. George Washington.

The Lions will certainly hope this is just a blip on the radar after wins over Penn and Robert Morris (though those were both very close games in the first half before PSU pulled away).

Combined with Iowa's well-known woes and Indiana's generally expected loss to Ole' Miss tonight, the bottom third of the Big Ten (Northwestern included, and yes I know they've only played one game against a good opponent, and didn't perform horribly) has taken a step backwards from last year. PSU nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year; they were one of the last few left out.

Games like this will not put them in the discussion come March. They have, yet again, a rather pathetic non-conference schedule (the reason they were left out last year), the lone challenge being a home game against Virginia Tech in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

Their scheduled road game at Virginia isn't what it used to be, though they may not even be favored against the worst of the ACC after this performance.

This year, they appear to have Talor Battle—and little else. Though the scoring against Robert Morris was well-balanced, Battle has scored 27 and 29 in the last two games, getting very little support from his teammates. Chris Babb was non-existent tonight and Andrew Jones needs to step up his game as well.

Otherwise, like Indiana and Iowa (and probably Northwestern), the Nittany Lions are in for a long season.

No. 18 Dayton 63, No. 23 Ga Tech 59: Restart the Hewitt Hot Seat Watch

Nathan B — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:00:19 -0500

So, it wasn't really an upset. Tell it to the fans. Tell it to the boosters. See if they'll listen.

No. 23 Georgia Tech fell 63-59 to the best of the Atlantic 10, the No. 18 Dayton Flyers in the opening game of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off today.

But the way in which they lost is not going to calm the fans that are growing a bit weary of losing with the immense talent that Hewitt has recruited in his years at Tech.

This is supposed to be the do-or-die year for Hewitt and a loss to Dayton, while excusable, is not an auspicious start to the campaign.

It doesn't help that Georgia Tech blew a seven-point lead with less than five minutes to go in the game after rallying from a 31-22 halftime deficit.

Both teams were sloppy with the ball (though the Jackets were sloppier, with 26 turnovers to Dayton's 22). Both teams shot poorly from three-point range (though the Jackets were more inaccurate, hitting just two-of-eight compared to Dayton's nine-of-28). Both teams shot poorly from the free-throw line (though Georgia Tech was horrendous, a paltry 11-of-20 compared to Dayton's 10-of-15).

See the general trend?

A different Paul, Paul Williams of the Flyers, made the biggest difference in the win. He was a perfect 4-of-4 from the charity stripe and nailed the crucial go-ahead three-pointer, not bad for a reserve guard.

Will this game get Paul Hewitt fired? Of course not. Will his seat get a little warmer with each game the Jackets lose in this manner? As one moose-shooting ex-VP candidate might say, "you betcha'".

Dayton is significantly improved over last year, but they're still not UNC or Duke, nor are they even Clemson. Georgia Tech needs to win these games, early or not. Unlike many other prognosticators, I see the Yellow Jackets as a bubble NCAA team, not the third best team in the ACC.

Quite simply, if they don't get into the NCAA Tournament, you can say goodbye to Mr. Hewitt in Atlanta.

Don't worry though, because N.C. State's Sidney Lowe will beat him out the ACC's revolving door, but that's another story for another day.

As the Wall Turns: Preseason College Basketball Top 10

Nathan B — Tue, 12 May 2009 19:28:13 -0400

As many of you already know, I simply cannot get enough of local baller John Wall.

Like all of you, there is simply no way that I could ever become sick of hearing about various character issues, recruiting possibilities, breaking and entering citations/charges/arrests/non-arrests/excuses, AAU handlers/lion tamers/coaches, and college fan Facebook pages/criminal blog entries (thanks for the perspective as always, Myles Brand).

So, with my finger clearly on the pulse of what the fans want, here it is: a John Wall-themed preseason Top 10, based on the current information available on who is likely to go to the NBA and who is likely to play at Kentucky.

For the purposes of the poll, it will be assumed that while Wall is now most likely to go to Kentucky or Miami, phorid flies will enter his brain via his ear canal in June 2009 and convince him to attend North Carolina Central University in Durham, N.C., within taunting distance of the Blue Devils and Tar Heels, naturally.

1. Kansas Jayhawks

John Wall should join this team simply so that they can take on the Dallas Mavericks and more fully humiliate Mark Cuban.

2. Michigan State Spartans

The pieces are in place for another run at the title. Unfortunately, the Spartans once again could face a team that starts the preseason with every single No. 1 vote in the AP poll and becomes the 2010 "Team of Destiny." I'm of course speaking of the Raleigh Word of God John Walls, er, I mean, Kansas Jayhawks.

3. Texas Longhorns

Well, each year they start a little higher in the preseason polls, only to plummet later on in the season. Imagine if Damion James returns? Even if he doesn't, the Horns have broken into and entered the top five, and they're not likely to budge until January—and they only received a citation.

4. Villanova Wildcats

This ranking is contingent on Scottie Reynolds coming back and waiting until next year to enter the NBA, hand-in-hand with John Wall. Villanova, with its top-notch recruiting class, is still a top 10 team without Reynolds, but the Wildcats are a Final Four threat with him.

5. Purdue Boilermakers

What would be more difficult to part? John Wall and his AAU handler, or Gene Keady's hair in the '90s? Who cares? Robbie Hummel is leading this team to the top of the Big Ten, where they will give Tom Izzo's Spartans all they can handle.

6. North Carolina Tar Heels

The return of Marcus Ginyard is highly underrated by many in the college basketball world, who haven't had the joy of seeing him play on a regular basis. Then again, he's a pretty under-the-radar guy, kind of like John Wall.

Ginyard, Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, and a slew of young All-Americans are enough for the Tar Heels to at least threaten a Final Four repeat.

7. California Golden Bears

Yes, I have the right California school at No. 7. All of last year, they were, well, a year away. Just like John Wall.

Their time has come, as four starters and the top reserves all return to a team that was young and talented in 2008-09.

They are the Pac-10 preseason favorite, which is saying a lot in a conference that is improving as a whole.

8. West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia seems poised to emerge as the best of the Big East after most of the other top challengers (Connecticut, Syracuse, Raleigh Word of God Academy, Pittsburgh, et al.) have suffered significant defections.

They're nothing close to a lock, but the Mountaineers are prepared to build on a disappointing end to last year's campaign.

9. Connecticut Huskies

Jim Calhoun is in trouble for making a salary roughly comparable to what some Division I coaches are probably offering Wall for one year of his services.

As he usually does, he'll earn every penny of it as he simply reloads once again and keeps his Huskies challenging for the Big East title, even after losing three key players to the NBA.

10. Duke Blue Devils

Duke is reportedly out of the running for Wall's services, and the fans/boosters are either disappointed, overjoyed, or couldn't care less, depending on which Devils fan you talk to.

Gerald Henderson is by far the biggest loss, though, and it will probably keep Duke from truly competing for a Final Four berth until 2010-11.

Still, this team is talented enough to stay on the cusp of the top 10 and will likely give UNC all they can handle (as usual) for the ACC title.

ALSO ON THE CUSP: Butler, Washington, Kentucky (if Jodie Meeks returns), Ohio State, University of John Wall (teamed with Mike Ditka)

John Wall Charged with Breaking and Entering: John Calipari, You Can Have Him

Nathan B — Mon, 04 May 2009 11:07:59 -0400

[Note: I would like to thank WRAL, a news station in Raleigh, NC, for some of the objective information in this article.]

Raleigh police stated on Monday that phenom high school recruit John Wall has been cited for breaking and entering.

The incident took place on April 27, 2009 at 3924 Laurel Glen Drive in Raleigh, NC.

Raleigh city police stated that "an officer saw Wall leaving from the rear of the residence and was able to detain him."

Bria Renea Draughn, 16, and Reginald Leonard Jackson II, 17, were also detained by the police in connection with the Wall charge. Jackson was caught in an attempt to return to the residence.

Considered by virtually every recruiting site as the No. 1 prospect overall (and by default, the No. 1 prospect not yet committed), Wall gave his critics further ammunition with the misdemeanor charge.

Many have suggested that Wall has "character issues," stemming from both his past history and recent statements he has made.

Yes, Wall is innocent until proven guilty, but this is a case of being caught red-handed, and I am going to dispense with the politically correct niceties of defending someone who has repeatedly indicated he has difficulty understanding the difference between right and wrong.

Or, rather, he understands the difference, but only seems to care when it's convenient for him. If nothing else, his statements have proven him to be an extremely arrogant young man.

The guy can play ball. There is no one like him in this year's recruiting class. The rules that basically force him to play a year of college basketball are proving more and more ludicrous as time goes on.

All this aside, Wall has once again proven why Roy Williams and Coach K would be wise to let someone else handle this particular player.

This article will be updated as new information comes in.

North Carolina Tar Heels 2009-10 Preview: The Return of Marcus Ginyard

Nathan B — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 11:53:17 -0400

When North Carolina won the 2005 national championship, the exodus of both seniors and underclassmen (temporarily) gutted the program and meant that 2005-06 would be a pretty long year, even with talented freshman (such as Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green) joining the squad.

The upcoming season is going to be different for a number of reasons, the most important of which is the return of Marcus Ginyard and an even more talented group of freshman than the 2005 class.

Roy Williams faced a tough choice when Ginyard was slow to recover from preseason foot surgery. His team was playing mediocre (at best) defense at the time, and red-shirting Ginyard would mean losing UNC's best defensive player for the rest of the season, even though he likely could have returned for the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

The upside, of course, was that Ginyard would return as the vocal leader and moral compass for a class of youngsters with enough talent to potentially return the Tar Heels to the Final Four.

It turns out the Williams and Ginyard chose wisely.

Ginyard's value to the 2009-10 team can hardly be overstated. During the 2007-08 Final Four campaign, Ginyard was often the player that kept the team centered. He was the most valuable sixth man in the country, the fiercest UNC defender, and the most vocal leader in the locker room.

That role will be even more crucial with at least five freshman and four sophomores on the team next season, many of them high-school standouts or McDonald's All-Americans.

The current roster is as follows:

Sr. SG/SF Marcus Ginyard

Sr. PF Deon Thompson

Jr. SG/SF Will Graves

So. PF Ed Davis

So. PG Larry Drew II

So. PF/C Tyler Zeller

So. SG Justin Watts

Fr. SG/SF Leslie McDonald

Fr. SF/PF John Henson

Fr. PF Travis Wear

Fr. PF David Wear

Fr. PG/SG Dexter Strickland

Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, and the Wear twins can all potentially play the center "position," but in reality, none of them are true centers. Zeller is most likely to occupy the role, as Davis appears more affective as a PF.

John Henson was originally recruited more as a shooting guard, but his growth spurt and the evolution of his game make it much more likely that this All-American will be in the forward position.

The projected starting lineup is a bit tricky, but one would have to believe that the upperclassmen will occupy the starting positions at least at the beginning of the season. By mid-season, it is likely that some of the talented underclassmen will challenge for starting positions and will, at the very least, be taking up huge chunks of playing time.

I expect, for example, Larry Drew II to start the season at point guard but if he doesn't learn to make better and quicker passing decisions, and if he doesn't take care of the ball more effectively (improving his turnover to assist ratio), I fully expect that Strickland will be able to jump in and take his place.

As another example, it's almost inconceivable that a talent such as John Henson won't eventually be starting, perhaps even relegating Ginyard back to the sixth-man role in which he excelled in 2007-08.

Projected opening-game starting line-up:

PG: Larry Drew, II

SG: Marcus Ginyard

SF: Deon Thompson

PF: Ed Davis

C: Tyler Zeller

This is a very forward-heavy line-up, so an alternative is to move Ginyard to SF, Thompson to PF, Davis to C, and start Strickland or McDonald at SG. This would, however, relegate Zeller to the bench, which seems pretty unlikely considering the way he started the season last year.

Davis is the only absolute lock for a starting position on opening day. I believe the starting line-up will evolve as listed below.

Projected ACC Tournament starting line-up:

PG: Dexter Strickland

SG: Leslie McDonald

SF: John Henson

PF: Ed Davis

C: Tyler Zeller

I see Ginyard going back to his sixth-man role, entering for McDonald or Henson early in the game. Deon Thompson might be (in this case) the best seventh-man in UNC history, spelling Davis or Henson.

The Wear twins can rotate in for Zeller and, of course, Drew will be a completely adequate back-up for Strickland.

UNC will likely be the deepest team in the country, with 11 quality players rotating into every game (the least impressive of which is Will Graves, who was still seeing about five minutes or more on the 2008-09 championship team before he was suspended).

Some egos will likely have to be massaged, but Roy Williams has proven plenty capable of handling that situation in the past, both at UNC and Kansas. It certainly is better to have too much talent than too little.

The Tar Heels' run and gun style of play suits these players well, and having such a deep rotation means that opponents will be absolutely exhausted by the 10-minute mark of the second half.

This combination of talent and depth makes the Tar Heels a valid threat to return to the Final Four in 2010.

Bonus Predictions

Predicted preseason poll rank: No. 9

Predicted pre-NCAA Tourney poll rank: No. 6

Predicted ACC Regular Season Champion: North Carolina

Predicted NCAA Tourney seed: No. 2 seed

Predicted NCAA Tournament finish: National Semi-Finalist

Predicted NCAA Champion: Kansas

Predicted number of players who will be in the starting line-up throughout the year: 9

Is it November yet?

Tyler Hansbrough's No. 1 Fan Cheats Death, Looks To Watch Heels in 2010

Nathan B — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 01:14:55 -0400

This story is tangentially related to sports, but it admittedly is more about life than college basketball.

Our bulldogs (two English and one French) are an integral part of our family, and our English boy, Winston (pictured above), is as big a basketball (and, naturally, Tar Heels) fan that you could possibly find in the canine world.

He loves to "play basketball," literally passing the ball with his head and "dribbling" with his paws. He is actually quite an accurate passer, though I have to admit he does a bit more traveling than would normally be allowed in the Dean Dome (if you're a Duke fan, insert your Tyler Hansbrough joke here).

The basketball joins him everywhere he goes, and it almost seemed to be a security blanket of some sort during my 2005 deployment to Iraq.

My wife and I have joked all year how much of a Hansbrough fan he actually is. He seems to pay a little bit of extra attention when he sees his hero on television, and he'll bark as we cheer on the Heels.

Yes, we humanize our pets a great deal, and I realize that it's rather unlikely that Winston actually knows who Hansbrough is. Still, I can't help but notice the parallels between the boost that both pets and sports give to our lives in their own respective ways. Both have become integral to my daily travails and journeys.

In sports, there are wins and losses, but with pets, the loss is a permanent one. There is no rematch. There is no chance for redemption in a later tournament.

Two weeks ago, we came within just hours of losing Hansbrough's furriest fan in Chapel Hill. A day after my return from a conference in Chicago, Winston began vomiting and the course of his illness rapidly worsened.

Misdiagnosed with pancreatitis by the first vet who treated him, he was rushed to the emergency room in the early morning hours of the Friday before UNC faced Villanova.

It turned out that Winston actually had an intestinal blockage, the result of a swallowed piece of a Nylabone toy. His life was about to head to overtime.

The amazing surgeons and doctors (including Dr. Grafinger) at Triangle Veterinary Emergency Clinic went into immediate action, performing the emergency enterotomy and saving Winston's life.

He recovered well from the surgery and actually was allowed home that Saturday. He was in good spirits (although still refusing food; he hadn't eaten in nearly a week) and actually sat up to watch Hansbrough and Co. dismantle the Wildcats, heading to the championship game.

Needless to say, I was watching Winston far more closely than I was watching North Carolina.

By Monday morning, Winston had taken a turn for the worse. He was suddenly in severe pain and, as you can see from the picture in the story, he was refusing even one of his favorite foods, Cheez-Its (the vet said he needed to eat anything we could convince him of eating).

A wound infection and severe cellulitis had set in and it appeared that Winston was headed for a second surgery, one from which he would not have nearly as good a chance of surviving.

The surgeon was forced to discuss the worst of possibilities, but Winston wouldn't have given up on UNC, even if they were down by 20 with 10 minutes to go, and we weren't going to give up on him.

As recent days have gone by, "our child" has continued to recover and the brightness in his eyes is slowly returning. He's not turning down Cheez-Its, peanut butter, or any other kind of food at this point. That's more like the Winston we know.

Sports brings much into my life and UNC's title run has been thrilling to me, but I would trade that thrill for Winston's health without a second thought.

I am incredibly grateful for the prayers, thoughts, and financial support offered by my friends here at Bleacher Report and elsewhere. The kindness and generosity of both friends and strangers alike has been both overwhelming and eye-opening to me.

I would never have known the people in this community without sport, and for yet another time in my life, the lessons of sport and the lessons of life have crossed.

We like to think that Winston was cheered by UNC's victory over Michigan State, and he's told us in his own special way that he fully intends to be around to watch Marcus Ginyard, Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis, and friends make another run at the Final Four in 2010-11.

He'll be cheering for his hero Hansbrough, too, no matter where he ends up.

They are both "fighters," in the truest sense of the word.

Thank you to Winston's heroes and angels here on Bleacher Report. If he had a voice, he'd thank you as well.

(NOTE: You can see lots more pictures of our bullies and get updates on Winston's condition at Winston's Web site).

Not Just Sparty's Party: UNC Also a Bastion of Hope in a Battered State

Nathan B — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 11:56:01 -0400

By now, we've all heard the storyline that the media will be trumpeting for the next 36 hours.

Michigan has fallen on hard times, without a doubt. The state has the highest unemployment rate in the country, at least two of the Big Three automakers are on the verge of collapse, and other sectors are shedding jobs like an ungroomed Calico.

The Michigan State Spartans have provided a spark to both Detroit and the state as a whole, and their surprising success (surprising to almost all but the Spartan fans themselves) is a feel-good story that is easy for the media and others to latch onto.

It's easy to root for a team from a state in distress, a state that is a near-perfect microcosm of the often depressing economic challenges that many of us are facing in America today.

I don't wish to take anything away from the state of Michigan, fans of the Spartans or the truly great story the Spartans have become.

I do, however, want the rest of the country to know that the North Carolina Tar Heels are not simply some Goliath, silver spoons in their mouth, hoping to destroy the dreams of the Spartans and America with them.

North Carolina is suffering deeply, too, and these are our "Carolina boys," representing our flagship state institution, created to serve the people of North Carolina in good times and bad.

And, believe me, these are very bad times in North Carolina. Currently suffering the fourth-highest rate of unemployment in the nation, factory jobs (especially in the furniture industry and the western and coastal parts of the state) have disappeared so fast that some small cities have been left with unemployment rates upwards of 25 percent.

The banking industry is the largest sector of the North Carolina economy, and its woes have been well-documented in the media. Agriculture has taken a huge hit as well, and for a short time, many citizens of a proud state have found something to unify them: the young men in that special shade of blue and their quest to deliver on a promise they made to themselves and their fans almost one year ago to the day.

So, if you are watching the game and feel like it is un-American to be pulling for the Tar Heels, remember that the people are suffering here in the southeast, just as they are in America's breadbasket and other regions.

And, of course, it would be rather arrogant (and ignorant) not to mention that there is far worse suffering in a plethora of locations all over the world, both economic and otherwise.

The Tar Heels have no desire to destroy someone's dream, but every desire to fulfill their own and that of their fans. They're not wearing the "black hat" in this affair.

Fans routinely live vicariously through those they cheer on, and Tar Heels are no exception.

I wish both teams the best and whether it's Spartan green or Carolina blue that prevails, at least one more day of joy will be brought to people that are thankful for each ray of hope they can grasp.

And, for the team that doesn't come out on top, I hope that its fans can still revel in the incredible season and effort that these unelected "state representatives" have turned in.

Sports, for many, is an escape in tough times, and this NCAA Championship game will be no exception.

Creature vs. Creature: Villanova Wildcats, UNC Tar Heels Clash In Detroit

Nathan B — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 13:09:57 -0400

Destiny, let me introduce you to Cinderella.

As the lowest remaing seed in the Final Four, No. 3 Villanova is the closest thing that can pass for Cinderella in this NCAA Tournament.

North Carolina, the unanimous preseason No. 1, remains on the path that many in the media said they were predestined for.

But the hurdle that stands in the Tar Heels' way is a team that shellacked Duke 77-54 before upending the East's No. 1 seed, Pittsburgh.

For its part, the Tar Heels simply destroyed their opponents in the South regional, winning every game by an average of 22 points (16 if you discount the blowout of No. 16 seed Radford).

The last time these teams met was a 2005 Sweet 16 battle, in which UNC took the victory in controversial style; many Wildcat fans felt robbed by the zebras in that matchup.

UNC rode the momentum of that victory all the way to the 2005 National Championship.

It's the Big East versus the ACC one more time, and as the clash approaches, B/R writers Ryan Brennan (Villanova) and Nathan Bitner (North Carolina) lock horns in an effort to determine which prize fighter will be left standing on Sunday.

Is the 2005 Sweet 16 Game in the Back of Anyone's Mind?

Ryan: That game is definitely on everyone's mind. While the game occurred five seasons ago, Jay Wright was Villanova's coach and Roy Williams was UNC's, just as they are today.

More importantly, though, the game would have left an impression on recruits about to sign (who are now seniors). These players include Villanova's Dante Cunningham, Shane Clark, and Dwayne Anderson, and UNC's Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green.

Nathan: Coaches say they have no long-term memory, but who really believes that? They have the memory of elephants. Roy Williams knows how smart of a coach Jay Wright is, and just how dangerous the current Wildcats are.

While I find it unlikely that the players will be focused on the result of 2005, I'm sure Jay Wright wouldn't enjoy a little payback. UNC, as it has all season, needs to stay focused on 2009.

Does Your Team Represent the Best Conference in College Basketball?

Ryan: Absolutely. This has been a season-long debate and my answer has been the same throughout.

Nine different Big East teams have been in the top 25 this season, with eight in the top 10 at one point or another and three of them atop the overall rankings.

The top of the Big East is comparable to the top of the ACC (both conferences have three teams that were ranked No. 1 during the season), but it's the depth at the middle of the conference that gives the Big East the slight edge.

The size of the conference does come into play, but the Big East teams play 18 conference games (three teams twice). That means that an unranked team could potentially play 12 conference games against ranked opponents, and possibly 11 conference matchups against the top 10.

If Notre Dame was in Conference USA, do you think they would have lost seven straight at one point this season?

The Big East is the best conference in college basketball, and what makes this game even better is that Villanova is one of the best teams the conference has to offer.

Nathan: The conferences are pretty even, but the ACC has the edge when you compare bodies of work and all of the teams, not just Nos. 1-12.

Big East aficionados conveniently like to ignore the flotsam and jetsam at the bottom of their conference, but the fact remains that 44 percent of the Big East got into the NCAA Tournament while the ACC managed 58 percent.

Even the worst of the ACC, Georgia Tech, is a more dangerous team (ask Wake Forest) than the bottom five or six in the Big East.

The Big East tournament's success, on its face, looks significantly better than the ACC's, but it's actually quite comparable.

The Big East lost two No. 1 seeds (Louisville and Pittsburgh) as well as a No. 3 seed (Syracuse) and two No. 6 seeds (West Virginia and Marquette). The mid-tier ACC teams were less than successful and Wake Forest laid an egg.

Ultimately, given the seeding, the ACC has the one team in the Final Four who is supposed to be here. The Big East only managed to land one of the three teams they should have sent.

It's just a media-generated battle "for fun," but anyone who thinks one of these conferences is "far and away" the better conference has lost their mind.

Which Team Has the Coaching Edge?

Ryan: Both teams have great coaches. Yes, Williams has plenty of history while this is Wright's first trip to the Final Four, but he has already proven this year that history means very little.

Wright is the Big East Coach of the Year and has shown a penchant for making the tough decisions, including benching Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes, two sophomore stars who improved noticeably after the move.

Wright has been successful as the underdog throughout the entire season, and by now the Wildcats relish the role.

Williams may have the history, but Wright has the accomplishments from the season that give Villanova the coaching edge in this game.

Nathan: I have all the respect in the world for Wright, but Williams has the experience, and he is in the Hall of Fame for a reason. He knows how to win in these situations.

Despite unprecedented media hype and pressure, the loss of key reserve Tyler Zeller (now back), senior starter and defensive specialist Marcus Ginyard, and role-player Will Graves (both out for the season), Williams led the Tar Heels to a regular season ACC title.

He can manage talent and egos, and he has this team focused on one goal: a national championship.

The Final Four is a step on the journey, not the destination.

What is the Single Most Important Key to Victory for Your Team?

Ryan: Great defense—especially from the backcourt.

During the tournament, the Wildcats have been switching on every screen and have held outstanding shooters to near-season lows, including Jrue Holiday to 1-for-6, Gerald Henderson to 1-for-14, Jon Scheyer to 3-for-18, and Levance Fields to 2-for-8.

The run-and-gun offense may be a lot of fun for fans to watch, but it's defense that's going to get 'Nova to the championship.

Nathan: It's two of the intangibles: focus and intensity. There have been times in games when UNC seems to lose one or the other, or both.

At this level, they can no longer afford lapses.

Villanova is an elite perimeter team. Intensity will lead to the key stat you need to watch for this game: both team's assist-to-turnover ratio.

If UNC clicks at a 3:1 pace or better, they will be tough to beat.

Who is Going To Be the Game's MVP and Why?

Ryan: Dante Cunningham will once again prove that he can dominate the frontcourt and will win the MVP.

In addition to his explosive offense and clear presence on the court, Cunningham has been playing great defense, denying big men the ball, no matter their size.

Look for Cunningham to grab his 11th double-double of the season, with 21 points and 11 rebounds.

Nathan: It will be the same man who will be the MVP of the tournament: Ty "The Toe" Lawson. He's UNC's engine and has reemerged after a painful toe injury that he had the guts to play through.

When he's on, the Tar Heels are virtually unstoppable. Oklahoma's Blake Griffin shut down Hansbrough last weekend, but Lawson spread the ball out and North Carolina dominated the game from tip to whistle.

Look for his outstanding numbers to continue against 'Nova, as he notches 19 points, 11 assists, four rebounds, and just two turnovers.

Prediction?

Ryan: If there is a backcourt that can slow down Lawson, it belongs to Villanova.

Look for the 'Nova guards to consistently drive at Hansbrough, getting him into early foul trouble.

The Sooners forgot how to play basketball in the first half. Don't expect Villanova to make the same mistake.

Cunningham will establish himself in the frontcourt early, and once the Tar Heels are forced to guard him up close, he'll have the option to kick the ball out to the open man.

Villanova 78, UNC 74.

Nathan: No one in the country has the backcourt to slow down a healthy Lawson.

No one.

He's had six days' rest and will be fresh. The Tar Heels are playing their best basketball of the season and played their best half of defense against Oklahoma last Sunday.

That's a real bad sign for Villanova, who doesn't have the slashing, speedy, elite point guard that typically causes UNC fits.

UNC takes one more step in a fairytale season as long as its focus stays on the task at hand and the intensity stays up.

North Carolina 90, Villanova 81.

The UNC Tar Heels Conundrum: Restrained Joy in the Southern Part of Heaven

Nathan B — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 02:03:42 -0400

In March, they fall one by one, like wisping blooms from the budding dogwoods.

Elites and nobles depart from the affair without being able to grasp the hand of the beautiful girl they came to dance with. Louisville and Pittsburgh, stellar seasons in hand, are forced to the doors before they are ready.

Cinderella's stagecoach prematurely transforms back into a pumpkin. Arizona, some said you never should have been here, but you looked beautiful in your dress, even if midnight came too soon.

Teams that are on fire find themselves doused by a sudden torrent of disappointment. Syracuse and Gonzaga, your seasons were a success nonetheless, and you and your fans should be proud.

The knights who served as reigning champions and their No. 1 challengers proved powerful once again, but have been vanquished this time around. The young warriors of Kansas and Memphis will hardly be gone for long, though.

No one ever fully knows how the story, or in some cases the fairy tale, will play out, no matter what they tell you. There is no such thing as a perfect bracket.

Precisely because it is such a challenging, emotionally draining and rewarding task to even reach the "Final Four," it is probable that some teams (subconsciously or not) consider such success to be a destination, rather than one more step on an even more pressing journey.

How then, does one explain the rather subdued joy of the North Carolina Tar Heel players and fan base?

Some say it's arrogance, but that is inaccurate. UNC players (and fans) are certainly not "better people" than anyone else simply because of the names on either the front or the back of the team's jerseys.

Neither the players nor the fans feel entitled to tournament wins or Final Four appearances, and they never, ever take it for granted.

The restraint can be summed up in one word that hardened men such as Matt Doherty, Tubby Smith, and Billy Gillispie know all too well: expectations.

Ty Lawson says he never felt the pressure of early expectations that swelled around this team, the first-ever unanimous AP No. 1 preseason selection. That swell crashed like a tsunami on Chapel Hill when the Tar Heels opened conference play with losses to Boston College at home and Wake Forest on the road.

Lawson and others can say what they want, but I don't believe him for a minute.

Suddenly, the media darlings, the "anointed ones," could be taken down a peg or two. Fans had written endlessly of the possibilities of the first undefeated season since 1976, and many thought that it was about time they were humbled.

This is why you don't see dancing on the tables or showboating when Carolina wins.

This is why the UNC players simply shake the opponents' hands, wave to the crowd, smile (bigger on the inside than the outside, I assure you), and walk quietly back to the locker room.

It's also why I've seen Franklin Street quite subdued, even last night, and it's why you don't have a plethora of vapid postings (thank goodness) touting the Tar Heels. There is still far too much work to do, and it only gets harder with each step of the way.

The wins are merely what is "expected" for a great number of people, and the fans know that there are many waiting in the wings to crow and taunt if UNC takes the same hard fall that brought it down in 2008.

The Tar Heels still have painfully overt lapses, such as the one that allowed a battered Oklahoma team to cut a 21-point lead to 12 in a matter of just a couple minutes, late in the second half.

The pressure is tremendous when nothing short of a championship is acceptable to the media, the fans, and the players alike. Roy Williams on Sunday called this "the most frustrating season of [his] career."

Yes, many schools would love to have such pressure and "frustration," but it is not condescension that allows Williams to say something like that. It's just that one double-edged word again: expectations.

UNC is not a better team this year because it has been to the Final Four nine times in 19 seasons. Phil Ford, James Worthy, Michael Jordan, and Sean May aren't playing. Frank McGuire and Dean Smith aren't coaching.

The Tar Heels know that if they take even one game, one half, or perhaps even one minute for granted, the fairytale season ends in disappointment. They are not destined to be champions; they will have to earn it, just as they have the rest of their accomplishments so far.

No amount of history or media prognostication will win them a championship. Only teamwork, efficiency, focus, and effort will get the job done.

Their fans understand this too and have taken the same pragmatic, business-like approach that the players have. It's not that they would label their beloved Tar Heels as "losers" if it didn't all work out. But they do know that much of the rest of the country is watching and waiting for them to fail.

So, the fans will be happy and gracious for the team's successes, but most in Chapel Hill will be waiting to exhale until (and if) the ultimate celebration can begin.

Until then, the peril of being just another March dogwood bloom is all too real.

ACC Vs. Big East? Well, at Least We Can Agree That the SEC Disappoints

Nathan B — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 12:05:15 -0400

In the photo above, it looks like Bruce Pearl is trying (and failing) to take a large, steaming...well, drop some kids off at the pool. And who can blame him?

Tennessee's regular season was as disappointing as a tennis magazine with all the pictures of Maria Sharapova removed, and the Vols followed their SEC tourney loss with a stinker against Oklahoma State, bringing this painfully constipated season to an end.

Mississippi State may have been impressive in winning the SEC tournament, but consider that they beat other SEC teams, including Tennessee, in doing so. They should not have been expected to beat Washington, but they certainly weren't inspiring in a 13-point loss.

Only LSU looked up to par during the NCAA Tournament, a feature that is already over for the Southeastern Conference. The Tigers clawed their way past Butler in a struggle with a mid-major school that had collapsed at the end of the season, including a loss in their own conference tournament to the upstart Cleveland State Vikings.

LSU showed up to play in challenging No. 1 seed UNC for more than three-fourths of their second-round game, but the Tar Heels were just too much for the best that the SEC had to offer this year.

UNC point guard Ty Lawson may not have been 100 percent, but he had just enough gas in the tank, er, toe to put away the Tigers with about seven minutes remaining.

South Carolina, in the NIT, was a complete disappointment, getting manhandled by Stephen Curry and the Davidson Wildcats in Columbia, SC. They did not look the part of an NCAA bubble team; they simply didn't play well.

Yes, Florida, Kentucky, and Auburn won some NIT games (mostly against lesser opponents), but this must be bittersweet, especially for one team that has won back-to-back NCAA Championships in this decade and another who is out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 18 years.

It's a bit like kissing your sister.

Early in the season, I wrote an article suggesting that the SEC would land only three teams in the NCAA Tournament (it also incorrectly predicted three for the Pac-10), but it looks like I had actually made an overestimation, as MSU was only present due to their tournament upset.

This has been the worst year in recent memory for the SEC; perhaps the worst since the expansion in the early 1990s. Unfortunately, there are not many promising signs for 2009-'10.

LSU, though they have an outstanding coach, cannot be expected to play to the level of this season without the SEC Player of the Year, especially if Tasmin Mitchell opts for the NBA draft, as most expect.

Only Kentucky has significant recruits arriving, with lesser help coming to the aid of Florida and Tennessee. Some programs (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi) are in complete rebuilding mode.

South Carolina should basically have the same team they had this year (and the last) and another year of Darrin Horn will likely make them Tournament-worthy, but it's doubtful that the Gamecocks can be any type of powerhouse.

It's certainly too early to prognosticate the demise of anyone in 2009-'10, but there is little reason to believe that drastic improvements will be seen in the SEC next year.

Fortunately, spring football is just around the corner.

UNC's Roy Williams Reveals His Vote for Coach of the Year

Nathan B — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 02:53:40 -0400

Roy Williams is rarely accused of being anything but a class act (excepting the occasional criticism that emanates from Durham), and his post-game press conference was no exception on Thursday. After the Tar Heels crushed the Radford Highlanders, 101-58, Williams spoke with unusual candor on several subjects.

First were the usual congratulations to Radford head coach Brad Greenberg (brother to Virginia Tech's Seth Greenberg). Williams actually revealed much of what he said to Brad after the game.

After explaining how much he "really liked the guy," and how happy he was to see Radford succeed, Williams continued: "He’s a coach’s coach. He’s very genuine."

"I congratulated him on what they’d accomplished, and told him, I don’t mind saying this, I said, 'Brad, we played really well.' And I said that in the way I intended it to be taken was that we really played well, that’s the only way we were able to do this. We didn’t beat you with our C-game. We played very well."

Williams was his usual self in recounting how he needed to remind Wayne Ellington which color jerseys North Carolina was wearing after Ellington committed three early turnovers.

After Ellington spoke of finding his groove in the first half against Radford, Williams countered, "Especially after he realized we were wearing one shirt and the other team was wearing another color. Three turnovers in the first five minutes throwing it to the other team. So during one of the timeouts we reminded him we were the team wearing the white jersey.”

Finally came a somewhat unusual statement at the very end of the press conference. Williams actually revealed for whom he cast his vote in the National Coach of the Year balloting, and it was none other than his next opponent, LSU's Trent Johnson.

Said Williams, "I know Trent Johnson. I consider him one of the class acts in college basketball. I’m not so sure that anybody did a better job in college basketball than Trent did this year."

"If I knew he’d buy me dinner I’d tell him the truth, and that’s the fact that I voted for him as "National Coach of the Year.” But I don’t think I can swing that anyway. But I do think he did a great, great job. The team is an extension of him."

Roy Williams is nominated himself, but most experts think the leading candidates are Johnson, Kansas' Bill Self, and Illinois' Bruce Weber. There are certainly other names mentioned, but these seem to be the three talked about most often.

Of course, Williams has always been the type of coach to speak as kindly as possible of his upcoming opponent, but he obviously was not blowing smoke up the hindquarters of Mr. Johnson when he made the statement.

LSU's coach has done a phenomenal job with a team picked to finish at the very bottom of the SEC West. Johnson has certainly been instrumental in turning Marcus Thornton into the probable SEC Player of the Year.

So, while these teams will be "enemies" of sorts on the basketball court on Saturday, expect the cordial relations to continue between Williams and Johnson, regardless of the result.

This is just another reason Roy is so beloved in Chapel Hill, as he was in Lawrence, KS. He is a class act and North Carolina is proud to have him.

And, by the way, he made the right call with his vote.

Ty Lawson Update: The Real Story behind UNC's Strategy

Nathan B — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 20:55:39 -0400

The picture above is one that strikes fear into the hearts of Tar Heels fans and gives hope to every other team in the South Region and beyond.

However, a few brief statements and a little common sense should reassure fans of North Carolina and fans of one of the most exciting point guards in college basketball.

Lawson's complication of a simple jammed toe stems primarily from an aggravation of a previous fracture that he was unaware of and involves not another fracture but a significant swelling of tissue near the site of the old injury.

Despite Lawson's statements to the contrary, Roy Williams unequivocally stated on Tuesday that if Lawson did not practice on Tuesday and Wednesday that he would "not play on Thursday." Today, he reiterated that there was a "huge probability" that he would not play.

Sources (admittedly low-level) at the UNC Athletics Department verified that Lawson only participated in "shooting drills" during Tuesday's practice and "did not engage in a full practice session" on Wednesday.

These same sources verify that there is virtually no chance that Lawson will play against Radford on Thursday.

However, this should be understood as a tactical move by Williams as part of the larger strategic battle. First, several people (including Lawson himself) verified that his toe injury was far worse before (and after) the regular-season finale against Duke than it has been since.

It is my own assertion that Williams held out Lawson from the ACC Tournament because the coach accurately calculated that UNC had already secured a No. 1 seed and two games in Greensboro. Winning the ACC Tournament or losing to Florida State was not going to provide any additional advantage or disadvantage.

That brings us to the current situation. Lawson's toe will almost certainly swell after he plays in his next game back. If he was to play against Radford, he could potentially be in worse shape for the winner of LSU/Butler, a far more challenging game.

There is no need to play Lawson against Radford, as UNC should easily win that game without him.

Looking at Saturday's game, there is no doubt in my mind that Lawson will play, and he will then have five days to recover if there is any further aggravation (which, considering the nature of the injury, there is likely to be).

Williams stated that Lawson's recovery has been "slower than expected," but this also helps him deflect any criticism he might receive for sitting Lawson against the lesser opponent.

Fresh from five days' rest, Lawson should again be ready for the regional semifinal, but if his injury has lingered, the biggest potential roadblock will occur in the regional final, should UNC be fortunate enough to make it that far.

At that point, Lawson would be operating on two days' rest and if the injury has not significantly improved, he will be in significant pain. Unfortunately, that game is projected to be against either Syracuse (a team that matches up very well with the Tar Heels) or Oklahoma and soon-to-be-named Player of the Year Blake Griffin.

So, Lawson's jammed toe is not nearly the significant problem that some in the media have made it out to be, but it is the type of problem that can last for some time if the toe is placed under repeated stress.

If you would otherwise choose UNC in your bracket, you have nothing to worry about until the Elite Eight matchup. You may very well want to take the injury into account for any games beyond that point, however.

Lawson is the engine that drives the Tar Heels' train, and all North Carolina fans hope that locomotive is headed straight to the Motor City.

Why Auburn, Penn State Are "In" and Creighton, St. Mary's Are "Out"

Nathan B — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:15:28 -0400

As time has passed, the brackets out there on the professional websites, as well as those posted by analysts on Bleacher Report, tend to become much more similar. In fact, it's hard to find all but the most minute of disagreements at this point, usually centered around one or two bubble teams.

The field seems all but set for most people, but the Selection Committee always has a few surprises in store when the actual 65 teams get named.

Why should today be any different?

Since the surprises are a virtual certainty (I can't remember a year when it hasn't occurred), I scoured the bubble teams to see where a surprise might come from and have come up with a couple of possibilities.

I don't expect many to agree with them; otherwise they wouldn't be surprises!

Still, on a day that has often centered around the unexpected, I hope you'll enjoy a little prognostication of the possibilities, slim as they may be.

[First, note that conference affiliation, where a team finished in their conference, or anything involving the words "eye test" have absolutely NO impact on the Selection Committee's decisions, nor do the coaches' pleas to the press.]

From Mike Slive, chairman of the committee, these criteria include:

1. Wins and losses

2. Strength of schedule

3. Road victories

4. Records against the RPI Top 50

5. Injuries or controversies that may cost a team one or two wins

6. How a team finished the season (last 10-12 games, plus the Conference Tournament)

7. Notable wins over a team that is "better" and notable losses against a team that is "worse"

So here are your two "surprises":

1. Penn State (22-11, 10-8 Big Ten) is IN; Creighton (26-7, 14-4 MVC) is OUT

Nearly everyone rang the death knell for the Nittany Lions after a tournament loss to Purdue, but they likely lost to the Big Ten Tournament Champions.

Their road victories include Michigan State and Illinois, two of the top three Big Ten teams, the conference with the second-best RPI.

Georgia Tech is another nice road win for the Nittany Lions, despite the Jackets' final spot in the ACC. They are a team that knocked off Wake Forest, and yes, the committee looks at the "web" of who your opponents' opponents were.

Early season losses were to Temple (the A-10 Champion) and Rhode Island (a bubble team until the last two weeks of the season). Penn State's worst loss was at Iowa, but it was in-conference to a team that also beat NCAA Tournament teams Wisconsin, Northern Iowa and near-bubble teams Northwestern and Kansas State.

Compare this record to Creighton, who finished the season with a nip and tuck win over Wichita State and a humiliating blowout loss to Illinois State, who could not go on to win the MVC championship. This was not a very good last impression for the Bluejays.

Creighton's losses to Drake and Arkansas-Little Rock are worse than any loss Penn State posted, and a mid-season loss to Wichita State may be as well.

Creighton's home win over Dayton looks less and less impressive as the Flyers collapse. That's actually the best win Creighton has, which can't hold a candle to Penn State's marquee wins. The Bluejays' win over New Mexico? Same story (and it was at home).

Did Creighton have any road wins of note? Not a single one. The best is (drum roll, please) at St. Joseph's, a team that finished eighth in the Atlantic 10.

Creighton has an empty resume and virtually no shot at a bid on Sunday. The bracketologists who believe they are in the Big Dance must have hypnotized each other.

2. Auburn (22-11, 10-6 SEC) is IN; St. Mary's (26-6, 10-4 West Coast) is OUT

Teams that schedule for the NIT often end up in the NIT, and these two do not have impressive OOC schedules.

Auburn's best road wins are over Virginia and Mississippi State, though Virginia is a team that knocked off VMI, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Maryland. The only other road win of significance for the Tigers is the neutral-court victory over Florida in the SEC tourney.

St. Mary's two best road wins are over San Diego State (better than either of Auburn's) and...uh-oh. Oregon? San Diego? Auburn gets the edge.

Furthermore, you can discount that post-WCC tourney game at Eastern Washington (12-18, 6-10 Big Sky) right now. Beating the sixth-place team in a one-bid conference will mean exactly jack squat to the Selection Committee. Patrick Mills was healthy for the WCC final, and Gonzaga crushed St. Mary's by 25.

The losses to Portland and Santa Clara will only partially be mitigated by Mills' injury because the Gaels were absolutely blown out by very weak teams. The losses to Gonzaga will not be mitigated by Mills' injury because they got destroyed when he was healthy.

Auburn finished the season 9-2, including victories over LSU, Florida, Tennessee, and Mississippi State (twice). At least two of those teams are headed for the NCAAs and two are (at least) headed to the NIT, as MSU plays Tournament lock UT for the SEC title.

It will also be considered that three straight Auburn losses (to Dayton, Northern Iowa, and Xavier, all NCAA Tournament teams) were in single digits (one point, six points, and seven points, respectively).

I love the Gaels; they're one of my favorite teams in the nation. But they don't deserve to be dancing. They have the higher RPI (47 to Auburn's 57), but it's not enough to overcome the other factors.

So don't look so glum there, Tigers. At least one person says you'll be just fine tomorrow night.

Seth Greenberg Starts "The Virginia Tech Whine" Early After Loss to UNC

Nathan B — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 12:47:38 -0400

Last year, Virginia Tech was one of the last teams on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament "bubble," and coach Seth Greenberg was livid. He went on just about every sports show he could find to rip the Selection Committee and the analysts who suggested that the Committee might have been correct.

Greenberg decided to start early this year (kind of like St. Mary's "extra game," but I'll save that for another article).

Appearing on ESPN early this afternoon, Greenberg stated his rationale for why Virginia Tech should be considered for an at-large bid when the Selection Committee meets on Sunday.

Surely, he would talk about his SOS (No. 29) or RPI (No. 62), right? On second thought, you might want to stay away from the RPI numbers, Seth.

Perhaps he would talk about his heart-breaking losses in the beginning of the year? His marquee wins in the ACC, such as beating Wake Forest?

No, instead, Coach Greenberg took the path of criticizing other teams and other conferences, immediately after stating that he "didn't want to take anything away from [any other team]."

He specifically asked how other teams would fare facing the same teams that his team had to play this year. Summarizing his words, he basically asked "How would we fare if we played in the WCC or MVC and those other bubble teams played in the ACC?"

Guess what, Mr. Greenberg? You get the advantages and the disadvantages of playing in the ACC. You're strength of schedule stays relatively high, but your RPI number is more telling. If you truly feel this way, join the WCC and you will see that you will gain a different set of advantages and disadvantages.

Join Conference USA and go through the criticism that Memphis goes through year in and year out, having virtually no chance at a No. 1 seed outside of a virtually perfect season.

Virginia Tech is on the bubble, but they have had plenty of opportunities to play themselves off of it, and they failed. They have not proven that they are a team that should be selected.

They have only proven (for the second straight year) that they are deserving of consideration, and that they might easily be on the wrong side of the bubble again.

Greenberg wants his last eight or nine opponents considered, as he repeatedly stated on ESPN, and he wants the Committee to consider how the other bubble teams would fare with VT's schedule. That's probably not a good idea, considering how VT fared against those teams.

The Selection Committee doesn't work with hypotheticals. They work with what you have done. They don't pretend that St. Mary's is in the ACC or that Virginia Tech is in the Missouri Valley. Tech's coach is barking up the wrong tree with that argument.

Virginia Tech shouldn't have gone 4-9 in their last 13. They shouldn't have gone 1-6 in their last seven regular-season ACC games, including losses to Maryland, Virginia, and Florida State (twice).

And in all honesty, they shouldn't have lost to a North Carolina team without Ty Lawson, considering they almost beat them with Lawson healthy and had a substantial second-half lead in the game.

Virginia Tech shouldn't have lost to the worst team in the SEC (a conference that will get just three bids, if that, in the NCAA Tournament), Georgia, or taken home losses to Seton Hall or Wisconsin.

And if Greenberg wants to complain about close losses (he didn't do that today, but the "analysts" brought it up), he better mention his close wins as well: 65-62 over Gardner-Webb, 62-57 over Mt. St. Mary's, single-digit victories over Navy, Charleston Southern and Elon, 78-75 over Virginia (at home), 91-87 over N.C. State (at home), and 76-71 over Georgia Tech (you guessed it, at home).

So don't even go there with the buzzer-beater losses.

Virginia Tech is not a bubble team that has done what is necessary to make the NCAA Tournament. As have many bubble teams this year, they had their chance and they blew it. They can hang up horseshoes, capture leprechauns, or find four-leaf clovers. But lobbying the press is unflattering.

Seth Greenberg needs to stay off their airwaves and let the Selection Committee do its work.

Eagles, and Buccaneers, and Big Red, Oh My!: Seeding the Automatic Qualifiers

Nathan B — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 00:21:30 -0400

You might be wondering why this particular picture graces the top of this article.

It might bring back memories of a boycotted Olympics, back when the U.S.S.R. had missiles pointed directly at the largest city near you.

For followers of Morehead State University, it may even bring back a college basketball memory; 1984 was the last year that the Eagles clawed their way into the NCAA tournament.

Shocking UT-Martin, Austin Peay, and the rest of the Ohio Valley Conference, Morehead State will dance with the big boys for the first time in a quarter-century.

Though only a few qualifiers have been decided, I wanted to take a brief look at the schools that are in so far and their probable seeding. When you only get "40 minutes of fame" every 25 years, it can't hurt to have your name mentioned as often as possible.

1. Morehead State Eagles (19-15, 12-6 Ohio Valley)

The Eagles beat two of the OVC's best in UT-Martin and Austin Peay after taking care of Eastern Kentucky in the first round. Their almost-certain reward? A matchup with a No. 1 seed, and they will be fortunate if they don't have to deal with a play-in game in Dayton first.

Not only has Morehead State been locked out since 1984, they have only been to the NCAA Tournament once since the 1950s, in 1983. That year, as a No. 11 seed, they were taken out by the Orangemen of Syracuse 74-59, back when the Orange were still men.

In 1984, their seed was a No. 12, and the tournament worked a bit differently. There were four "play-in" games that resulted in a 48-team field. Morehead St. won the play-in game by defeating Greensboro's North Carolina A&T in a 70-69 thriller.

They then faced the No. 5 seed Louisville Cardinals and lost 72-59. So, how off could I be if I predict that they draw a Big East No. 1 seed and score 59 points against them?

MSU's motto is Lux (Latin for light), but the light at the end of their NCAA tunnel is likely to be an oncoming freight train. There is one little bragging point for this Kentucky team located near Lexington. They are now the most likely "Big Blue" to be dancing this year.

Projected Seed: No. 16, Play-in game

2. Cornell Big Red (21-9, 11-3 Ivy League)

As one of the few remaining conferences without a season-ending tournament, Cornell earned their bid by winning the Ivy League regular season title. Until last year, they too had not been to the NCAA tournament in over 20 years, last seeing the Big Dance in 1988 and 2008.

Their first dance partner was an unkind No. 1 seed, Arizona, who crushed (chewed?) the Red 90-50. By 1988, there was a 64-team field, so no play-in game was necessary.

Last year, it was another Pac-10 team, Stanford, that dropped the hammer and spit out the Big Red.

Like Morehead St., Cornell's only other NCAA appearance came during the 1950s.

Cornell shouldn't have it quite as bad as Morehead St. in terms of seeding, though they are unlikely to inspire the fear that past Ivy League champions Princeton and Penn have throughout much of the last 20 years.

The Big Red actually played an extraordinarly challenging non-conference slate and notched a couple of mildly impressive wins over La Salle and Boston University.

Still, if you're looking to find that rare No. 15 to take out a No. 2, I advise continuing to scan the bracket, as Cornell was drilled by every quality opponent they faced.

Projected Seed: No. 15

3. East Tennessee State Buccaneers (23-10, 14-6 Atlantic Sun)

"Eagles, and Buccaneers, and Big Red, oh my!" just doesn't seem to have the right ring to it, but here we are. ETSU is the most dangerous of the teams listed thus far, having taken out Belmont and Jacksonville on their way to the Atlantic Sun championship.

The Bucs last danced in both 2003 and 2004, losing thrillers to Wake Forest 76-73 and Cincinnati 80-77, respectively. Their greatest tournament moment came in 1992, when they shocked No. 3 seed Arizona before falling by just 12 to a Michigan Wolverines squad that made it to the National Championship game.

ETSU is never an easy out, and the 2009 version has more raw talent than the 2004 team. The duo of F Kevin Tiggs and sharpshooting G Mike Smith may very well cause a giant headache for an unsuspecting No. 2 or No. 3 seed.

Projected Seed: No. 15

4. Chattanooga Mocs (19-16, 11-9 Southern Conference)

This one is a double-shocker. This was supposed to be "Davidson's Conference."

First, Davidson got knocked off by College of Charleston, sending Stephen Curry to the NIT, barring a drug-induced pick by the Selection Committee. Then, in almost equally shocking fashion, the Mocs knocked off Charleston to secure their second bid of the decade (the last was in 2005).

Keep in mind that this is a team that had lost its last three regular season SoCon games, including one to Charleston at home, giving up an average of 87 points in the process.

The Mocs barely escaped the first round of the SoCon Tourney, beating Elon by just one, but now they have landed in the NCAAs.

Many aficionados still remember the stunners pulled off by Chattanooga in the 1997 tournament. They took out Tubby Smith's No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs and sent No. 6 seed Illinois packing, though Lon Kruger's hair did not move in the loss. When faced with a far lower seed in the Sweet 16, the Mocs lost a close one to Pete Gillen's No. 10 Providence Friars.

This year's team bears little resemblance to the 1997 squad that scored Chattanooga's only NCAA tournament wins in history outside of a 1982 victory over Jim Valvano's N.C. State Wolfpack.

That's quite a lineup of coaches they've taken out over the years, but the Mocs are an almost certain No. 16 seed unless the lower-tier conference upsets continue.

They can thank a home win over Niagara for avoiding the play-in game. A loss at ETSU may actually be important in seeding this team, as they will almost certainly be within one seed line of the Bucs. I don't know if it makes them feel any better, but they may very well be the best of the No. 16 seeds.

Projected Seed: No. 16

5. Northern Iowa Panthers (23-10, 14-4 Missouri Valley Conference)

Northern Iowa surprised many of the preseason prognosticators by taking a share of the regular-season title and winning the MVC Tourney.

The Panthers missed a golden opportunity to improve their seeding when they lost a close game at Siena (part of a devastating three-game losing streak in late February), but still should fare decently and present some significant challenges in a first-round game.

UNI is no stranger to the NCAA tournament in this decade, making the field (and losing in the first round) in three consecutive seasons (2004-2006). Their highest seed in that span was a No. 10 in 2006, when Georgetown fought them off. Oddly enough, in each of their three appearances this decade, they have lost the game by five points.

In their only NCAA tournament win, the No. 14 seeded Panthers shocked Missouri by three in 1990 before losing (by three, of course) to Minnesota. The numerologists should have a field day with this team.

An early-season home win over Auburn and a road win over Creighton pads their resume, but some bracketologists are being overly optimistic when projecting this team as a No. 12 seed.

Projected Seed: No. 13

6. Radford Highlanders (21-11, 15-3 Big South)

This is also not much of a surprise, as Radford dominated the regular season in one of the weakest conferences in the nation. Only VMI was expected to pose a challenge with their high-octane offense, and the title game didn't disappoint. Radford outran VMI and won 108-94.

The reward will be a certain meeting with a No. 1 seed, and Radford may become a fashionable choice to be the first No. 16 to beat a No. 1. Although the Highlanders have won 12 of 13 and 17 of 19, I wouldn't drink the Kool-Aid.

Radford was competitive at Virginia early in the year (when the Cavaliers were doing their best impression of a high school team) but were easily handled by every other decent team they faced.

Radford's only previous NCAA bid was in 1998, when they were hammered by No. 1 seed Duke 99-63.

Projected Seed: No. 16

7. Virginia Commonwealth Rams (24-9, 14-4 Colonial Athletic Association)

VCU got it together just in time and hammered George Mason to take the CAA title. This team is all about PG Eric Maynor and will go as far as he can carry them. He has the potential to be "this year's Stephen Curry," but the fact that I will probably hear that at least 50 times in the next two weeks leads me to believe it won't come to fruition.

The Rams managed home wins against the Citadel and New Mexico, though their most impressive road win was at Richmond. They did hang tough at Rhode Island and Vanderbilt, but have been inconsistent late in the season.

VCU lost 81-70 at Oklahoma, so if Maynor is on, the Rams could certainly be a tough out.

The Rams have won an impressive five first-round games since 1981, the most recent being an upset that humbled Duke in 2007. They have never made it to the Sweet 16, though Maynor will make them a trendy pick.

The CAA's relative strength in comparison to other low-major conferences, coupled with VCU's regular season and tournament championships, should result in a decent seed.

Projected Seed: No. 13

Already, even before the NCAA tournament has begun, some great story lines have begun to develop. The next two weeks will only continue to stoke the "Madness" that takes hold of so many this time of year.

[Editor's note: Since the writing of this article, Gonzaga has also qualified by winning the West Coast Conference Tourney. Their projected seed is a No. 4.]

SEC Tournament Preview: Auburn Hot, Kentucky Not

Nathan B — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 23:32:38 -0500

The SEC Tournament field is all set, and it goes without saying that there are a few teams whose postseason chances hinge entirely on their performance from March 12 to March 15 in Tampa, Fla.

Kentucky (19-12, 8-8 SEC) has ended the season on a four-game losing streak after falling to Florida (22-9, 9-7) on Saturday and, as the Wildcats' NCAA hopes freeze over (for the first time since 1991), Billy Gillespie's seat warms considerably.

LSU (25-6, 13-3), Tennessee (19-10, 10-5), and South Carolina (21-8, 10-6) are virtual locks, but a win in the quarterfinals (they will each receive a bye in Round 1) would certainly make the Gamecocks more confident. Even Tennessee may be just a tad uncomfortable after losing at Alabama today.

Auburn (21-10, 10-6), once an SEC West afterthought, are now the hottest team in the conference after upending LSU on Saturday. Auburn has won eight of nine, the only loss in that span being to the same LSU team they just handily defeated.

Only one seed remains undecided. Now that Alabama has defeated Tennessee today, they will move ahead of Mississippi on a tiebreaker (they beat the Crimson Tide twice this year) and assume the SEC West's fourth seed.

Even if Vanderbilt beats Arkansas on Sunday, Kentucky gets the SEC East's fourth seed on a second tie-breaker (division record) and Vanderbilt will be the No. 5 seed in the East.

SEC TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

Note: Tennessee (East Division No. 1 seed), South Carolina (E2), LSU (W1), and Auburn (W2) will receive first-round byes.

Round One

Kentucky (E4) vs. Mississippi (W5)

Kentucky lost by five at Mississippi in late January, and they may have their hands full again, probably preferring that Alabama had lost to Tennessee (becoming the West's fifth seed), since the Tide was a team they had beaten by 10 just prior to losing to the Rebels.

Kentucky's desperation coupled with the play of Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson should be enough to put Gillespie's crew over the top on a neutral court in March, but don't bet the house on it.

Prediction: Kentucky 77, Mississippi 73

Alabama (W4) vs. Vanderbilt (E5)

Vanderbilt has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the SEC all year long, but is finishing strong, beating likely NCAA entrants South Carolina and LSU in the past week.

Alabama has finished the season strongly, beating Tennessee in the last regular season game, giving them wins in four of their last five.

This game could very well go down to the last possession, and if Alabama pulls out the win, they will earn a rematch with the same Volunteer team they just embarrassed on Sunday.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 74, Alabama 73

Mississippi St. (W3) vs. Georgia (E6)

State is easily the most disappointing team in the West, and they have dealt with multiple personnel issues and off-court distractions.

Georgia's magical run in the SEC tournament last year (in which the "Dream Dawgs" won a miraculous NCAA bid as a No. 6 seed) remains legendary, but it's unlikely that they have the ability to manage any semblance of a repeat.

Georgia has just one road conference win (the knife that dashed Kentucky's at-large hopes) while MSU has four (including Georgia itself and that same devastated Kentucky team). The talent levels are not equal, but that meant little in 2008.

Prediction: Mississippi State 69, Georgia 64

Florida (E3) vs. Arkansas (W6)

After Arkansas upset both Oklahoma and Texas early in the year, some thought this could potentially be the SEC Championship game.

Florida has dropped three of four but won a virtual play-in game against Kentucky on Saturday. The Gators are 4-6 in their last 10, including losses to Georgia, Mississippi State, and Tennessee (twice). A win here makes it much less likely that they'll spend a second straight year packing for the NIT.

Arkansas could potentially enter this game losing 10 of their last 11 games and will need a win to stay at .500 or better. Florida won by 15 at home in the regular season matchup.

Prediction: Florida 82, Arkansas 71

ROUND Two

Kentucky (E4) vs. LSU (W1)

LSU has become a poll darling (until tomorrow at least), but few casual observers have examined the Tigers' horrendous non-conference schedule, which includes losses at Texas A&M and a 30-point blowout at the hands of Utah, the only decent teams that they played.

Their best non-conference win was a home win over a Washington State team that was not playing at their best early in the season.

However, the Tigers had generally beat up their SEC brethren until this week, when Vanderbilt and Auburn handed them successive losses to end the regular season.

Make it three in a row as the Tigers "geaux" home early (have I mentioned that Kentucky is desperate?) in a rematch of a game that LSU won on the road 73-70 just two weeks ago.

Prediction: Kentucky 84, LSU 81, OT

Mississippi State (W3) vs. South Carolina (E2)

South Carolina lost this game in Starkville 75-70 a few weeks ago, and the Gamecocks would go from "virtual lock" to "lock" with a win here. That normally means that you can count on South Carolina to lose, but Coach Darrin Horn and star PG Devan Downey have instilled a new attitude in this Gamecocks squad.

USC went on the road and grabbed a must-win against Georgia, and they are playing for an NCAA bid, while the Bulldogs are playing for NIT seeding. I'll take Coach Horn's experience and Downey's talent in this rematch, but Gamecock fans better have their beta-blockers and benzodiazepines handy.

Prediction: South Carolina 74, Mississippi State 72

Vanderbilt (E5) vs. Tennessee (E1)

Tennessee easily swept the season series with their bitter in-state rivals and have finished the season strong, with a win at home against Mississippi State and road wins over Florida and South Carolina.

Though Tennessee has played a bit of Jekyll and Hyde throughout the year, they appear to be roaring in March. Vanderbilt will not roll over and if Tennessee reverts to their mid-February impression of a fruitcake, they are capable of being upset.

The Commodores have not had an answer for Tyler Smith (who scored 30 in the most recent matchup) and Wayne Chism shredded them in the earlier game.

Guess who's peaking right now? Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, it's Chism and Smith (with J.P. Prince contributing nicely as well).

Prediction: Tennessee 79, Vanderbilt 63

Florida (E3) vs. Auburn (W2)

This is probably the best second-round matchup, and the game at Auburn earlier this year was a nail-biter as well, with Florida pulling out a 68-65 win. Since that game, Florida has been choppy, going 7-7 in conference play, while Auburn has soared, going 10-4 in the SEC.

Nick Calathes and Alex Tyus led the Gators in the regular season matchup, while the Tigers had four scorers in double-figures (and another player with nine points) and squandered a second-half lead.

Auburn continues to spread the ball around effectively and has become the SEC's leading scoring defense.

Florida has become a sieve when it comes to three-point shooting and the Tigers are one of the SEC's better teams from behind the arc. Big Mo' is on Auburn's side as well, as the Tigers have been winning on the road consistently during their current streak.

Prediction: Auburn 68, Florida 66

Semifinals

Kentucky (E4) vs. South Carolina (E2)

Kentucky's legs will be getting tired as they play their third game in three days. South Carolina, if they make it this far, will be playing only their second.

The Gamecocks defeated Kentucky twice during the regular season and will be trying to improve their tournament seeding at this point. Kentucky's desperation will not be enough to overcome the most underrated point guard in the country, though you shouldn't expect a repeat of the 77-59 thumping that the 'Cocks laid on the 'Cats on Feb. 25.

In one of the more bizarre stats of the SEC season, South Carolina set a school record with 16 blocks in the game and never led by less than 18 in the second half.

Kentucky fans, go ahead and get out your "For Sale" signs ready for Billy G's lawn.

Prediction: South Carolina 81, Kentucky 73

Tennessee (E1) vs. Auburn (W2)

Does anyone have a coin I can flip? Tennessee is capable of playing like a team headed for the Final Four. Unfortunately, the rest of the time they look like they couldn't make the Final Four of the College Basketball Invitational.

Fatigue won't be a factor, as both teams have first-round byes, and Auburn has been the more consistent team at the end of the year. Better yet, Auburn already has won a squeaker over Tennessee on Feb. 7 that started their incredible SEC streak.

Auburn's Korvotney Barber holds the key; he was an absolute beast (16 points and 17 rebounds) in Saturday's victory over LSU.

Prediction: Auburn 73, Tennessee 70

SEC Championship

South Carolina (E2) vs. Auburn (W2)

The Gamecocks haven't won an SEC Championship since 1997, when they went 15-1 in conference play under Eddie Fogler.

Auburn has won the tourney just once, back in 1985, under coach Sonny Smith. Jeff Lebo, who probably saved his job with his late-season run, would like to etch his name in Auburn lore as the next coach to do so.

In a year when the SEC has undoubtedly been a bit down, it is fitting that one of these two underdogs take home the hardware.

In their one meeting during the regular season, Downey was held in check by the Auburn defense, but Zam Frederick scored 27 as the Gamecocks stretched a two-point halftime lead into a 68-56 win.

The Tigers are a different team now and as much as I would like to think the Gamecocks can break their Chicken Curse in style, it's hard to argue with Auburn's current consistency, coaching, and teamwork. If Auburn can keep Downey in check again, they should hang on in a thriller.

Prediction: Auburn 67, South Carolina 65

SEC CHAMPION: Auburn Tigers

Keep in mind that this is the SEC, so it's more than just a cliche when I say that anyone has a chance. If nothing else, Georgia proved it last year.

If you're looking for a darkhorse this year, look no further than Mississippi State Bulldogs or the (yes, still desperate) Kentucky Wildcats. Perhaps even the Crimson Tide (winners of four of five) can pull out a Georgia-style miracle.

If it plays out this way, do the Florida Gators get a bid? Tune in next Sunday and find out.

NCAA Brackets and Your Hard-Earned Cash: Is New Fantasy Game Worth It?

Nathan B — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 16:27:26 -0500

I have recently read several reviews on Bleacher Report (here and here) of a new type of fantasy game being offered this March by one of our very own Bleacher Creatures, Len Laber.

Before you read any further, this is not an article asking you to sign up at all, much less under my name. I am not wanting a reference. This is intended to be an unbiased review, so there is no quid pro quo that I am requesting here.

Len calls his games "One and Done" and "Survival," concepts I'll very briefly explain in a bit.

Needless to say, they don't involve picking the strongest mascot (a Boilermaker vs. a Golden Hurricane anyone?) or the colors you like best, with all due respect to the Purple Eagles (I'd love to see that bird) and the Blue Hens (yeah, that one, too).

It's not likely that Maggie the office secretary is going to beat you at this game unless, of course, Maggie is a college basketball aficionado, and/or you are a moron.

When it comes to spending the little bit of money I make (especially during a period of recession), I want to know a few things, and I want to know them from as unbiased a perspective as possible:

1. Am I going to enjoy the game? Is there anything that makes it unique?

2. Is it a good value and therefore worth my money? Is there a reasonable chance that I will be getting a return on my investment?

I've researched the site thoroughly and spoken with the owner several times, and these are the answers I've come up with to the aforementioned questions. I am using the following ratings system: 93-100 is Excellent, 85-92 is Good, 77-84 is Fair, 70-77 is Below Average, and below 70 is Poor.

1. Originality / Enjoyability RATING: 94/100 (Excellent)

Despite not being enthralled with the NBA regular season, I like to play Fantasy NBA basketball, in which rosters are shifting day-to-day. I have often wondered if this concept could be applied to college basketball, but have frequently been told that for legal reasons, the games don't exist.

I don't pretend to know what these legal reasons are, but apparently it is possible to have "rosters" during a March Madness competition, because that's exactly what these games entail. Instead of a draft, anyone can select any of the available players, either for the duration of the tournament (Survival mode) or weekly (One and Done mode).

Since you can create your own leagues, there is a good deal of flexibility in how you choose to score your league. I would like to see more statistics available for scoring your own league (e.g., FG%, FT%, Offensive vs. Defensive Rebounds, instead of just total rebounds, Personal Fouls).

Take the entire UNC roster (cheerleader above not included), or five players from five different teams. Either way, it's like adding crack to Krispy Kreme donuts. You were already glued to the games; now you have to watch every minute of all four monitors at once.

I have looked for any other major sites that allow you to set a lineup in any kind of college basketball fantasy league and, unless I'm just doing a bad job of searching, I have yet to find one. The originality score is therefore very high.

2. Value / Return on Investment RATING: 90/100 (Good)

There are elements here that are pretty difficult to beat.

First, you can play the "One and Done" game for free. In the free game, a Nintendo Wii is the top prize. And you don't even have to go through a deadly stampede at Wal-Mart to get it.

Now, what are your chances of winning this Wii? Well, obviously, only one is being handed out, so it depends on how many people are signing up. Since this is a fledgling operation, it's not like you are competing against the hordes of CBS, Fox, ESPN or Yahoo! users, some of which don't offer any reward for free games.

How about the paying game? (This is only the "Survival" version in which you keep your players for the entire tournament). The entry fee is $10 until March 14 and $20 after that. I can't emphasize enough how much the value increases if you sign up early; it's simple math.

The prizes are either a 40" LCD television or an $800 gift card (cold, hard cash, not a gift certificate to Target). That's a whole lot of cash, but I would have liked to seen it spread out a bit.

For example, if $800 is available, I would like to see $500 to the winner, $200 for second place and $100 to third place. This would have increased the score for "return on investment." Also, if you enter the game while the fee is $10, I would keep this rating of 90/100, but if you enter it at $20, I would score it an 85/100.

My advice: If you're going to join, do it early.

Some other things I examined and considered before giving the games a final score included the website itself (design, ease of navigation, information available), the process of joining or creating accounts and leagues, the terms of service (including privacy), method of payment (it's primarily PayPal, a good choice in my opinion), and ease of communication/professionalism of the site's owner.

Website Rating: 85/100 (Above Average)

The website design is a bit cluttered, but considering the speed at which it came together, this is to be expected. There are a variety of links to useful information, including college basketball news and statistics (as well as other sports). Ads are kept to a minimum (similar to B/R) and, most importantly, I experienced no pop-up ads.

You have the ability to ensure that your information is not used by third-parties or advertisers to contact you.

The individual game pages could contain more information, such as the prizes offered, details on creating your own leagues, etc., though this information is available on other parts of the site. I also think a FAQ would probably be helpful.

Join / Create Process: 95/100 (Excellent)

Basically, it's about as easy as it gets. All of the links work, and Len is readily available if there are any issues. Other payment options are available by contacting the site owner, if PayPal isn't your thing.

Site Owner: 100/100 (Superior)

Len is available right here on B/R for starters. He answered all emails within 24-48 hours (usually much sooner). He was professional, honest and thorough in all communications. I would feel very secure in signing up. And, yes, that's why I'm a fan of his here on B/R.

OVERALL RATING: 93/100 (Excellent)

I can't find a single reason not to join the free game and, honestly, $10 is not a bad chance to take on winning $800, considering the likely number of participants (that's not a shot at the site, but more of a comparison to sites with hundreds of thousands of entrants).

Biggest Positives: Extremely unique concept (using NCAA rosters), Good value / Quality prizes, Professionally operated

Biggest Negatives: Too few statistical categories in Create Your Own League option, would like to see more people win smaller prizes than one person win a big prize

I will be signing up myself, so maybe I should be discouraging you but, hey, you have to beat the best to be the best, so I hope to see you there. As the picture indicates, the game's a winner.

Take It to the Bank: The Top 10 Finishers for the Shelby 427 at Las Vegas

Nathan B — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 12:23:47 -0500

Now, we all know nothing unusual or unexpected happens during a Sprint Cup event.

So, these predictions are as solid as a Kyle Busch engine during the Chase. They're as predictable as the Big One at Talladega. These picks are as easy as the compliments to Goodyear that simply stream from Tony Stewart's mouth.

In other words, I have done my best to give you a capsule of who I believe will finish in the top ten today, but NASCAR at Las Vegas is as about as predictable as Tony Eury, Jr.'s calls atop the pit box.

It seems especially rough around Turn 2 this weekend, so keep an eye on those of lesser talent getting loose and potentially taking out the many good drivers that must charge (e.g., Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth) from the back with faster hot rods.

So, in summary, take out your checkbook and credit cards, call your bookie and place these bets:

10. Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch finishing 10th? Are you kidding me? Kyle landed on the pole on Friday but will be starting from the back due to an engine change. He also pancaked the right side of his car during Happy Hour.

Still, Kyle could easily drive into the top 10 by the halfway point of this race. And that may be his undoing. His aggression in moving to the front may very well get him caught up in an accident not of his own doing.

It is not hard for me to envision him taking the air of the side of a slower car impeding his progress (let's say Robby Gordon, just for fun), and he could be involved in restarts having to fight through many cars attempting to get the Lucky Dog.

Vegas will not mimic California with regard to its lack of cautions, and Kyle Busch has greater talent but far less patience than many of his competitors. However, he is also good enough to be involved in an incident (or two) and still finish in the top ten.

9. Mark Martin

Martin was in the top five for both Saturday practice sessions (and he blew the field away in leading the Friday practice session), but couldn't maintain the consistent lap speeds of his Hendrick teammates.

Martin often finishes about where he starts and he appears to have the car to do just that today. He qualified eighth, though he'll actually start fifth with Kyle Busch (pole), David Reutimann (4th), and Marcos Ambrose (5th) all going to the back with engine changes.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

It's hard to bet against any of the Hendrick cars this weekend, and Jr. has been consistently in the top ten during practice. He'll have to fight his way forward from the 31st position, but that's an easier task than Kyle Busch's and Jr. (usually) exhibits more patience on the track.

He simply doesn't appear to have the speed that Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are sporting, however, so picking him any higher than this doesn't feel right. If anyone is in need of a top ten right now, it is Junior, who currently sits 35th in the points. Don't expect him to stay there long.

7. Kurt Busch

It certainly would be a feel-good story for Kurt to get a win in front of his hometown crowd. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that Dodge is ready to win on this size track, even with the new engine and a supremely talented wheelman. Kurt consistently ran in the top five at California, but never challenged the leaders.

Due to the way cars move up the grid, Kurt will not get the pole as his brother moves to the back (Johnson will) to start the race, but 2nd is a great place to begin nonetheless.

Busch's fastest lap in Happy Hour was good enough for fourth, though there were several cars with better average lap speeds. Another top ten finish going into Atlanta would serve notice that Kurt will be around to contend for a berth in this year's Chase.

6. Greg Biffle

Last night's Nationwide winner has a strong Ford for today's race as well. Biffle knows how to get around LVMS like few others as he showed once again last night.

He seems to have grown a bit more aggressive this year, which I think will work in his favor toward the end of the race. If the team can make a few minor adjustments and gain just a touch more speed, Biffle is capable of running with the leaders. He almost always seems to race better than he practices, especially on the 1.5-2.0 mile tracks.

5. Matt Kenseth

LVMS seems to be an excellent track for Kenseth to go for a record-setting third win to open the 2009 season. Sure, the odds are against it, but it had been since 1997 that even the first two races were won by the same driver (Jeff Gordon).

Kenseth didn't have the best Happy Hour (20th fastest), but his average speed was respectable, and his history at the track is outstanding. This is very likely to be a Roush and Hendrick show and Matt Kenseth should be right in the thick of it.

Unfortunately, due to difficulties in qualifying, Kenseth will have to come from the back (40th), but he has the patience to slowly work his way up and expect to see him up front when it counts.

If teammate Jamie McMurray weren't quite so under the weather, he would also be an excellent top ten selection.

4. Jeff Gordon

I guarantee you that if Jeff Gordon finishes fourth, he will be disappointed. Many in the garage believe he has the car to beat, and I have little doubt that he will certainly be one of the cars that can win.

Gordon kicked it up a notch in Happy Hour (second fastest) and had the fastest average speed. Will Steve Letarte keep up with the track and make the necessary adjustments with as much skill as the No. 48 crew chief, Chad Knaus?

I'm betting (Monopoly money, of course) that he won't, and that it will cost Gordon a couple of spots in the final running order. Many insist this is the week that Jeff's losing streak ends, but I'm going with, "Close, but no cigar."

3. Carl Edwards

Interestingly enough, Vegas bookies have made Carl Edwards the odds-on favorite, although he has not had the fastest car all weekend. He's been far from slow however, tallying the fourth-fastest average speed in Happy Hour.

Couple that speed with Edwards' recent record on the medium-banked tracks of this size, and it's easy to see why the oddsmakers favor him. Edwards also won at the last progressively-banked track (Homestead), perhaps the best comparison to Vegas.

Vegas is a bit faster than Homestead, primarily due to new pavement, and Edwards likes fast.

2. Denny Hamlin

This is my surprise pick of the top five, but I think Hamlin is going to do what Kyle Busch could have. Denny had the second-fastest average speed (to Jeff Gordon) and was eighth overall in Happy Hour.

Hamlin qualified poorly (34th), but don't let it fool you. This team has made huge strides in practice and as Edwards, Johnson and Gordon fight for the win, I expect Hamlin to slip in like a thief in the night.

1. Jimmie Johnson

Simply put, Johnson rules Las Vegas and his Impala SS has looked great all weekend. Even better, he'll start from the pole, moving up from the third position as Kyle Busch goes to the rear.

Though starting position does not correlate to finishing position very strongly at Las Vegas (15th position actually has the best average finish, lucky for Michael Waltrip), there is little doubt that the Hendrick duo of Johnson and Jeff Gordon have the cars to beat.

Johnson led Happy Hour while posting the third-fastest average lap speed (logging four more laps run than Nos. 2 and 3).

Johnson will start at the front and, with a top-notch crew and excellent pit selection, he'll likely stay there all day.

Other drivers to watch: Jamie McMurray (starts 38th), Tony Stewart (10th), Brian Vickers (21st), Kevin Harvick (9th), Kasey Kahne (7th), and Bobby Labonte (17th)

South Carolina: Will the "Chicken Curse" Be Broken This Year?

Nathan B — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 04:55:59 -0500

South Carolina has been called a lot of things over the years, not all of them favorable. On the football field especially, the Gamecocks have been labeled underachievers, disappointments, and "the school where coaches go to retire."

A few more names may be hurled at the South Carolina basketball team (overrated, "bubble team") after getting shellacked at Vanderbilt 96-83 on Saturday.

As someone who married into a Gamecock household, I've dodged more than my share of objects directed at a television set displaying Steve Spurrier's quarterbacks.

My wife informed me that this is to be expected by now, as the Gamecocks suffer from what she (and other fans, apparently) terms "The Chicken Curse."

As best as I can figure, the Curse goes something like this: If a South Carolina team has low expectations, it will either meet them or wildly exceed them only to leave you that much more devastated when they collapse in the end.

And on the rare occasions that there are high expectations, fans should prepare themselves early to be disappointed.

The football disappointments (including two straight bowl losses and the 2007 season that started out 6-1 only to end at 6-6 without a bowl bid) are especially painful to Gamecock fans because, for all the attempts to change its image over the years, Columbia remains a football campus and a football city.

Enter fresh-faced coach Darrin Horn and his newly-christened "Garnet Army," the aptly named legion of fans who are ready to change all of that in just one exemplary season.

The Gamecock players, led by stirring PG Devan Downey, have brought USC basketball to a level not seen since the days of Frank McGuire, the namesake of the court they used to play on.

A loss to Vanderbilt aside, the current streak that has South Carolina (20-7, 9-5 SEC) leading the SEC East cannot be appreciated without a brief history lesson.

The program reached national prominence under Coach McGuire during the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the school was still in the Atlantic Coast Conference. After an undefeated ACC regular season in 1969-70 and an ACC Tourney Championship the following year, things got a bit ugly.

To make a long story short, the Tobacco Road stalwarts who held most of the power in the ACC held a strong dislike for South Carolina and McGuire, claiming that USC's lower eligibility standards and "irregular" recruiting behavior gave them unfair advantages and were, for lack of a better word, "unsportsmanlike" and not befitting of the ACC.

Crowds (especially in the state of North Carolina) were incredibly hostile, and even the opposing coaches and athletic directors shunned McGuire. McGuire took his ball and left, and the school became an Independent in 1971.

Their success continued for a few more years, though it was never the same after 1973, the last time the Gamecocks made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.

The basketball program entered a period of long decline, punctuated by single seasons in which they excelled, only to be devastated by shocking disappointments in the NCAA Tournament.

South Carolina has suffered some of the worst upsets in the history of the NCAA. Coach Eddie Fogler led the Gamecocks to an SEC Championship and a 15-1 conference record in 1996-97, only to lose as a No. 2 seed to No. 15 seed Coppin State.

They returned to the East Region as a No. 3 seed the following season, only to be upended by the No. 14 seed Richmond Spiders in yet another stunner.

Memphis handled South Carolina easily in their only NCAA bid this decade, a 2004 loss as a No. 10 seed in the first round.

Back-to-back NIT Championships in 2005 and 2006 under Wake Forest refugee Dave Odom did little to bring enthusiasm to a program that had once seen sustained success.

Will it be different this year?

South Carolina is poised to enter their first NCAA Tournament in five years, and there is something about this team that tells me the first-round "Chicken Curse" might finally be broken.

Darrin Horn has the team and the fans believing, and Devan Downey is producing like the All-American he deserves to be.

They are likely to draw a No. 8 or No. 9 seed, but Horn knows how to play Cinderella at the Big Dance, bringing No. 12 seed Western Kentucky to the Sweet 16 just one year ago.

Like any team with a superstar, the Gamecocks are infinitely better when everyone becomes involved, rather than expecting the athletic point guard to work miracles on his own.

They have a tendency to play up or down to the level of their opposition, not a trend that is particularly favorable in March.

Still, with a new coach, a revved-up fan base, an All-American point guard, and a completely new attitude within not only the team but the state itself, there is every reason to believe that South Carolina may be on the positive end of an NCAA surprise, for the first time in decades.

If nothing else, the team that meets them in the first round may not need to do much unpacking.

My wife tells me not to hold my breath.

Pollsters Clearly Sharing Michael Phelps' Bong in Ridiculous Feb. 23 Rankings

Nathan B — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 18:49:44 -0500

So, I'm starting to wonder if a few members of the Associated Press (AP) or ESPN/USA Today Coaches polls might be using the dartboard picture above, substituting team names for numbers.

There have been some pretty egregious poll results during the year, but there are quite a few that I truly don't understand today.

I'm sure each team that I go after will have its defenders, but these seem to be some of the more offending errors, in roughly ascending order of Phelpsishness:

5. Florida State enters the AP poll at No. 23 and the Coaches poll at No. 25

It is ludicrous that the Seminoles are ranked this low. What exactly do they have to do? All they've managed in the past several weeks are road wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech, plus home wins against Miami (FL), Virginia, and Georgia Tech.

Their two losses during this span were against UNC on a buzzer-beater by Ty Lawson and at Wake Forest, who was ranked No. 7 at the time.

FSU has a 21-6 record, are tied with Duke and Clemson for second in the ACC, and they are a game ahead of Wake Forest. I think it's safe to say their resume is better than quite a few of those ranked ahead of them in the Coaches poll, especially (Texas, Butler, UCLA, and Xavier come to mind).

4. Xavier falls from No. 16 to No. 19 (AP)

So, let me get this straight. The Musketeers lose to Charlotte, a team that was 9-15 (3-7 Atlantic 10), but beat up on George Washington (8-16, 2-10 A-10), and you get to stay ranked in the top 20?

To make matters worse, Xavier has dropped three of five, losing to Duquesne, Dayton (by 13), and the aforementioned Charlotte. If that doesn't knock a team out of the top 20, I don't know what will.

3. Butler falls from No. 21 to No. 24 (AP) and drops from No. 22 to No. 23 (Coaches)

This is a classic example of pollsters looking at the results, without knowing the details of the game.

It was more than obvious that Stephen Curry's ankle was not at 100% and a quick check of Davidson's results shows that they are not even remotely the same team without Curry. The Wildcats were blown out by 18 points when they played the Citadel without him. So, I'm not too impressed with Butler's win.

During the same week, Butler lost to one of the mediocre Horizon teams, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and last Sunday night, they lost to a horrid Horizon team, Loyola (Chicago), at home no less. This would seem to indicate to all but the "highest" of pollsters (and I don't mean those standing on a mountain) that Butler does not belong in the top 25.

2. UCLA drops from No. 20 to No. 22 (AP) and slips from No. 15 to No. 19 (Coaches)

How does this team keep its ranking? No. 19? Really?

They defeat Washington on a Thursday (their first conference win since Feb. 4) but then get taken down by Washington State on Saturday at home.

This is after getting swept in Arizona to both of those Pac-10 teams, leaving UCLA with a 9-5 conference record, good for third. Yet Washington, who split the season series with them, has won four of five, and has a game and a half lead on UCLA, ranks just one position higher at No. 21.

The coaches must have had the really good ganja, because they place Washington two spots lower than the Bruins.

1. Texas enters the Coaches poll at No. 24 and the AP Poll at No. 25

Yes, Texas knocked off Oklahoma (at Texas). Was this really all that surprising? Blake Griffin was injured during the game, for starters.

Secondly, during the same polling week, the Longhorns got hammered by Texas A&M 81-66. They have racked up recent conference losses to Kansas State and Nebraska, in addition to more forgivable losses to Oklahoma and Missouri. That makes them 3-4 in their last seven conference games.

Meanwhile, Utah (left out of the poll) is over 60 points behind them, despite having a better record (19-7, 10-2 MWC) in the best mid-major conference and winning seven in a row and nine of 10. The Utes weren't playing pansies; the streak includes quality wins over the best foes in the MWC: BYU, San Diego State, New Mexico and Wyoming.

These aren't the only examples; just some of the more obvious ones.

It is clear to me that far too many pollsters are simply looking at scores or voting for a team because they are "supposed to be good" (e.g., UCLA), rather than spending the necessary amount of time to do the research correctly.

The coaches probably have a valid excuse when it comes to time; the media does not. And if a media member claims that he doesn't have time, then he (or she) needs to give over the duty to someone who does.

This has been an ongoing trend, and it renews my desire to see every member's ballot, every time.

Now that I've probably pissed off at least four teams' fan bases, I can't wait to hear what the rest of you think. Have I overreacted or is this a valid criticism?

Five Ways To Improve the Auto Club 500 Parade

Nathan B — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 15:25:41 -0500

So, I'm still waiting for the Fontana race to start. What I watched last night wasn't a race; it was a parade.

As predicted, five to 10 cars were far superior to the rest of the field and the lack of close racing meant long green-flag runs. This, in turn, led to almost two-thirds of the field being lapped by the time the checkered flag flew...nearly half the field was lapped by the middle of the race.

Clearly, the fans must be clamoring for three-and-a-half hours of prerace filler, because that's what they got. Unfortunately, some of the segments were more exciting than the parade itself.

Of course, if a race happens (sort of) near a forest, and (almost) no one is there to see it (and those watching from home have turned off their television sets because Chris Myers has driven them criminally insane), did it still suck? The answer is yes.

Gillian Zucker (pictured above) says this race is the bee's knees, so maybe I'm just an uninformed, stubborn man who "had to walk to school uphill in the snow - both ways...while living in a matchbox with 18 other family members and breaking big rocks into little rocks 25 hours a day."

Said Zucker of the "official" 78,000 in attendance (the venue seats 92,000), "The turnout was awesome, I'm so thrilled with the crowd. It clearly shows how passionate Southern California is about NASCAR."

Really? First of all, if there were 78,000 people there, I'm pretty sure that there are pigs flying outside of my office window right now. Second of all, I'm not sure anyone has ever suggested that Southern California is "passionate" about NASCAR.

I'm sure that some individuals in the area may be passionate, but certainly not the region as a whole. Talk about putting lipstick on a pig (the attendance numbers, not Ms. Zucker).

Still, who likes a complainer who doesn't offer up any solutions?

Here are five ways NASCAR could improve this race, outside of "accidentally" blowing up the Speedway and starting over. I'm going to assume that one race must stay in California, regardless of the two million signatures on the petition to have them both removed (no, it doesn't exist, but it could).

1. Add Progressive Banking to the Track

This is not a guarantee of good racing by any means, but it certainly can't make it worse. It significantly improved the racing at Homestead and the Las Vegas version seems to be working there, though it will be more interesting to watch the effects as the new Vegas pavement ages.

Right now, the 14 degree banking in each corner pretty much lends itself to exactly what we've seen each time the current car has raced there—a spread-out field, single-file racing (outside of the first couple laps after a restart), and the ability of a few strong cars to lap most others before the race has barely begun.

2. Change the Start Time and Length of the Race

The first one is a no-brainer. SpeedTV started their coverage at 3 PM. Fox chimed in at 5 PM and the green flag dropped at 6:22 PM. Five whole laps of green-flag racing were squeezed in before Jimmie Johnson led the field through about 20 caution laps while the sprinkles fell. If anyone was still watching at 6:22, you probably lost them by 6:45.

Feel free to tailor the event to the West Coast. After all, the race is in California. But why not start it around 3:00 or 3:30 instead of 6:30? If you want to make it a night race, make it a Saturday night race, though that is not my preference.

I don't see the point of running 225 miles of parade laps followed by 25 laps of racing. I think this is one of the races you can safely shorten to 400 miles without hearing a whole lot of criticism from (all three) ticket-holders. Besides, they can get back to their Hollywood parties sooner.

3. Make Southern Californians Want to Go to This Race

Sorry, but the easiest way to do this is make it a once-yearly event. Right now, the market is over-saturated and not responding to the myriad of marketing ploys that Zucker has attempted to lure more fans. If I lived in the area, I'd rather go to the Vegas race anyway.

It's not just because of the recession, either. This race has never sold out, and no amount of television filtering of the audience or Zucker's massaging of the ticket sales figures will make it so.

Perhaps if the fans had less opportunities to go to the Auto Club Speedway, they would be more likely to take advantage of the one opportunity they do have. It makes financial sense to keep California and Vegas together on the schedule for the race teams (logistics, expenses, etc.).

There are plenty of more deserving and more interesting places to race in the Fall. Kentucky, Iowa, and Darlington all come to mind.

Take the race away and see if California can earn it back by making improvements.

4. Create an Economically-Feasible California/Las Vegas Ticket Package

Look, this is a pie-in-the-sky pipe dream, because Fontana is owned by ISC and Vegas is owned by Bruton Smith (SMI). Cooperation between the two is about as likely as Scott Speed painting Matt Kenseth's fingernails pink.

California lowered some ticket prices this year (the first five rows of the main grandstands were $35, for example), but wouldn't it be nice if the two tracks worked together to boost attendance at both races?

I doubt that LVMS is going to be selling out its 142,000 seats any time soon and fans that attend one generally live close enough to attend the other.

Though it could potentially be a win-win situation, it simply will never happen, which is unfortunate.

5. Have Goodyear Bring Last Year's Indianapolis Tire to the Track

Okay, so this one is a joke. But, hey, I'd almost rather see 12 laps at a time than what I witnessed last night.

Not to mention, it would certainly make for an interesting post-race press conference with Tony Stewart.

Memphis, You're Still the (No.) 1: Top 25 Mid-Majors (Post Bracket-Busting)

Nathan B — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:02:06 -0500

This weekend's games, which included several upsets not only of top teams but also of mid-majors, have shuffled up the mid-major rankings significantly. Not much has changed at the top, but just about everything below No. 2 is up for grabs.

Dayton suffered yet another embarrassment with a 57-49 loss to St. Louis, while Xavier joined them by losing to an even worse Charlotte team.

During a week in which UNC and Oklahoma went down on the road, some mid-majors helped separate themselves from the pack, while others may have found a bubble bursting.

The first rankings had the Memphis Tigers on top by a wide margin, with Gonzaga at No. 2 and the rest of the field a significant step behind them.

Keep in mind that this is not so much a "Power Poll" of who is hot at the moment, but more of an AP-style ranking system that includes a body of work but rewards current play more heavily than games in November and December.

As a bonus, each team will be rated on the likelihood that they would be in the tournament if today were Selection Sunday, with a projected seed if appropriate.

The categories are "Virtual Lock" (since nothing is ever a sure thing in the NCAA), "Bubble In," "Bubble Out," and "Must Win Conference Tournament."

Biggest Gainers: New Mexico Lobos (NR to No. 15) and Utah Utes (No. 9 to No. 3)

Biggest Drop: Boise State Broncos (No. 15 to NR)

Leading off once again are the ...

1. Memphis Tigers (24-3, 12-0 Conference USA) LAST WEEK: 1

There are critics that feel that Memphis doesn't deserve to be ranked among the nation's elite (currently No. 5 AP and No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches' Poll and likely to move up even higher tomorrow), as they clearly benefit from a soft schedule in a conference they continue to utterly dominate.

After hammering Gonzaga on the road, however, they obliterated three straight CUSA foes, by an average score of 75-44. It was a much tougher game at UTEP, and Memphis did not look dazzling, but they pulled out a seven-point win on the road.

Memphis is playing their best ball of the season, and only one difficult game is upcoming—at UAB next Thursday. If the Tigers' three-year conference winning streak is going to come to an end this year, this may be the most likely opponent to pull off the upset.

You can remove the word "virtual" from their lock status. I just don't happen to have that category.

Status: Virtual Lock Current Seed: No. 2

2. Gonzaga Bulldogs (21-5, 12-0 West Coast Conference) LAST WEEK: 2

Since breaking St. Mary's heart (and perhaps the Gaels' tournament chances) in a 72-70 road win, the Bulldogs have played inconsistently, with a relatively poor showing at San Francisco followed by blowouts of WCC cellar dwellers Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine.

There are simply no challenges left on the schedule, so the Zags are virtually guaranteed a 24-5 record heading into the WCC tournament. Only St. Mary's can play with them, and they would likely not meet until the conference finals. That game would be far more interesting if the Gaels' star PG Patrick Mills returns.

Status: Virtual Lock Current Seed: No. 4

3. Utah Utes (19-7, 10-2 Mountain West Conference) LAST WEEK: 9

I wanted to place Utah higher last week and losses by Dayton, Utah State, Davidson, Butler and Xavier have opened the door for the current MWC leader.

The Utes' whole season hinges on the next week and a half, with a home game against UNLV and road matchups against BYU and New Mexico. If they come out on top of the Mountain West after the music stops playing, they will earn a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament as champions of the best mid-major conference this year.

As they could potentially lose all four remaining conference games, I'm not ready to place them in the "Virtual Lock" category until they win at least one of them.

STATUS: Bubble In CURRENT SEED: No. 6

4. Siena Saints (22-6, 15-1 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference) LAST WEEK: 8

Siena isn't playing the most difficult competition at the moment in the MAAC, but they did decimate their best conference opponent of the last two weeks, Manhattan, in an impressive 93-69 rout.

A bracket buster game in which the Saints hosted current Missouri Valley leader Northern Iowa provided a slightly better test than Siena has been getting in MAAC play, where they are a two point loss at Rider from being undefeated. The Saints passed the test with flying colors, earning an 81-75 win.

With a rather weak bubble this year, that win may very well be enough to get the Saints into the Big Dance, regardless of whether or not they win their conference tourney. Siena is 20-3 since November, with two of those losses being to Pittsburgh and Kansas.

This may be too high of a ranking for Siena, but they are certainly improved from earlier in the year. It is hard to know just where they fall without more games against better competition. With everyone else losing, they get to move up in this particular poll.

STATUS: Bubble In Current Seed: No. 9

5. Utah State Aggies (25-3, 9-1 Western Athletic Conference) LAST WEEK: 7

The Aggies do have a two-point win over Utah on their resume, but Utah has without a doubt played the tougher schedule and has garnered a greater number of quality wins. Utah State can't be penalized too much for a loss on the road to St. Mary's, a team that is definitely learning to adapt to the loss of PG Patrick Mills.

In addition to their gaudy record and win over the Utes, the Aggies have recorded wins over Weber State, the same Idaho State team that defeated Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, Boise State, and own a sweep of New Mexico State. The only teams to have taken down the Aggies were St. Mary's, BYU (by just five points) and Boise State in a season split, none of which can be considered "bad losses."

The loss to St. Mary's may very well be the difference between a seven seed and a 10 seed come NCAA Tournament time.

If the Aggies win against underrated Nevada, you can move them to virtual lock status.

STATUS: Bubble In Current Seed: No. 10

6. Xavier Musketeers (22-5, 10-3 Atlantic 10) LAST WEEK: 5

Xavier garners the No. 6 spot more or less by default as just about every mid-major below them suffered untimely losses. The Musketeers at least managed to handle George Washington today. Xavier has still lost three of five, and their tournament seed is plummeting.

Xavier is fortunate to have early-season wins over teams such as Virginia Tech, Auburn, Missouri, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Virginia to balance out their late collapse. The injury bug has bit them at point guard and if they don't adapt soon, they may quickly find themselves on the wrong side of the tournament bubble.

The remaining conference schedule is relatively easy (that and their quality wins explaining the "Virtual Lock" status), with only a home matchup at Dayton presenting a significant challenge. Of course, few thought the 49ers or Dukes would beat Xavier, either.

STATUS: Virtual Lock CURRENT SEED: No. 7

7. Dayton Flyers (23-4, 9-3 Atlantic 10) LAST WEEK: 4

Oops, they did it again.

Dayton was poised to move to No. 3 in this poll before laying yet another egg against a much weaker conference opponent, losing by eight at St. Louis.

Positions four through 13 are all pretty tight, and another win over Xavier would certainly improve the Flyers' position. Of course, their remaining conference schedule doesn't have any "gimme"s, and a couple more losses (outside of Xavier) could potentially send Dayton to the NIT.

Status: Bubble In Current Seed: No. 9

8. Butler Bulldogs (23-4, 13-3 Horizon League) LAST WEEK: 6

The Bulldogs pulled out a critical road win at Davidson when they needed it, but let's be honest. Stephen Curry clearly wasn't at 100% and probably shouldn't have even been playing in the game.

The Bulldogs wouldn't even be ranked this high if BYU hadn't fell to UNLV last night while San Diego State was getting a beat down at the hands of New Mexico.

Two more conference losses to a mediocre team (Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and a poor (Loyola, Chicago) team had the Bulldogs reeling before the crucial game with Davidson.

The win over Davidson has likely given Butler the breathing room they need with a tough matchup against Cleveland State still looming in the regular-season finale. They would have to lose both conference games and again in the tournament to fall off the bubble at this point.

STATUS: Virtual Lock Current Seed: No. 10

9. Brigham Young Cougars (20-6, 8-4 Mountain West) LAST WEEK: 12

Brigham Young, UNLV, San Diego State, and Utah all have a virtual round-robin coming up in the next two weeks against each other. It will certainly sort out the top of the best mid-major conference in 2009, but it also may leave at least one of those four teams on the outside looking in when it comes to Selection Sunday.

New Mexico has an outside chance at landing a berth as well, but BYU impressively shot down the Lobos 73-62 on Tuesday. New Mexico responded by drubbing San Diego State last night.

BYU has four very tough games in a row (three on the road) and their schedule does not allow for "lock" status. They need at least a split with UNLV, San Diego State, Utah and Wyoming to assure themselves of an at-large bid.

The swing got off to rough start last night with a one-point loss to UNLV on the road.

STATUS: Bubble In Current Seed: No. 9

10 (tie). St. Mary Gaels (22-5, 8-4 West Coast Conference) LAST WEEK: 13

The Gaels may have just saved their season with a timely win over Utah State. With each passing game, it looks like St. Mary's is getting better at adapting to being without their star, Patrick Mills.

If he can return in time for the WCC tournament (which looks like a good possibility) and the Gaels can win their last two against the worst of the WCC, then the Selection Committee is likely to grant them a ticket to the Dance, as injuries are considered (if the player has returned and can contribute).

The move from "Bubble Out" to "Bubble In" with three straight wins over Portland, San Diego, and Utah State.

STATUS: Bubble In Current Seed: No. 11

10 (tie). San Diego State (18-7, 8-4 Mountain West) LAST WEEK: 10

Like many of their MWC brethren, San Diego State has just one relatively easy game left on the schedule (Colorado State) and will need to split the other four (at New Mexico, BYU, at TCU, UNLV) to assure themselves an at-large bid.

They were beaten like a rug (or a drum, or a red-headed step-child, take your pick) by New Mexico last night, not exactly a good start.

STATUS: Bubble In Current Seed: No. 12

12. Davidson (22-6, 15-2 Southern Conference) LAST WEEK: 3

As goes Stephen Curry's ankle, so go the Wildcats. Without him, they were trounced by conference contender Citadel 64-46, causing them to plummet in this poll.

Curry was back for the Butler loss, but it's doubtful that his ankle was at 100 percent.

The Wildcats' best non-conference win remains a December victory at West Virginia, and they are helped by wins over N.C. State and James Madison (to a much smaller degree) as well. None of their losses are terrible, and they could potentially sneak in if today were Selection Sunday.

Their hopes fully hinge on the progress of Curry's healing ankle.

STATUS: Bubble Out Current Seed: Out

13. UNLV Runnin' Rebels (20-7, 8-5 Mountain West) LAST WEEK: 11

They have won three of four (including a victory over BYU last night, but still face Utah and San Diego St. on the road). They may have just taken Davidson's at-large bid. Their ranking dropped here due to the devastating mid-week loss at Wyoming.

STATUS: Bubble In, by a hair Current Seed: No. 12, last at-large team in

14. Creighton Blue Jays (23-6, 12-4 Missouri Valley) LAST WEEK: 14

They are starting to make a strong case for an at-large bid, with early-season wins over Dayton and New Mexico and a weekend win over the CAA's George Mason. Still, with a generally weak non-conference schedule, they remain one of the first teams out at the moment.

STATUS: Bubble Out, by a hair Current Seed: Out

15. New Mexico Lobos (17-10, 8-4 MWC) LAST WEEK: NR

The Lobos have won four of five, including victories over UNLV and San Diego St. (75-49). New Mexico's only loss during that span was to BYU.

STATUS: Bubble Out Current Seed: Out

16. UAB Blazers (19-8, 9-3 Conference USA) LAST WEEK: 17

They've won nine of 10, their last loss by just one point to Tulsa. A win over Memphis easily puts this team on the right side of the bubble. Their only decent non-conference win is over Arizona.

STATUS: Bubble Out Current Seed: Out

17. Niagara Purple Eagles (22-7, 12-4 MAAC) LAST WEEK: 18

The mid-week loss to a resurgent Rider team hurt, but the drubbing of Illinois State was impressive. A win over Siena is not likely to be enough to earn an at-large bid.

STATUS: Must win MAAC Tourney

18. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (19-8, 13-3 Sun Belt) LAST WEEK: 22

They have now won six of seven and impressively defeated Arkansas-Little Rock.

STATUS: Must win Sun Belt Tourney

19. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (18-9, 8-4 Conference USA) LAST WEEK: 19

STATUS: Must win CUSA Tourney

20. Houston Cougars (17-8, 8-4 Conference USA) LAST WEEK: 16

An embarrassing loss to Marshall drops the Cougars, even if they did rebound to beat Central Florida.

STATUS: Must win Conference USA Tourney

21. Vermont Catamounts (22-7, 12-3 America East) LAST WEEK: 24

Vermont looked impressive in beating MAC leader Buffalo over the weekend.

STATUS: Must win America East Tourney

22. Illinois State Redbirds (22-6, 11-5 Missouri Valley) LAST WEEK: 21

Niagara humbled the Redbirds to end their three-game winning streak.

STATUS: Must win Missouri Valley Tourney

23. Temple Owls (16-9, 8-3 Atlantic 10) LAST WEEK: NR

The Owls have won six of seven, but they have done so against mediocre A-10 competition.

STATUS: Must win Atlantic 10 Tourney

24. Binghamton Bearcats (18-8, 11-3 America East) LAST WEEK: 25

The highlight of their resume is two wins over America East leader Vermont.

STATUS: Must win America East Tourney

25. North Dakota State Bison (21-6, 14-2 Summit) LAST WEEK: NR

Their win on the road at Wisconsin-Milwaukee during bracket buster weekend allows them to slip past Virginia Commonwealth and Eric Maynor for the final spot in this week's poll. The Bison have won 13 of 14. VCU has lost two of three and three of six.

STATUS: Must win Summit Conference Tourney

Just Missed: VCU, Wyoming, Weber State, Northern Iowa, Buffalo, Radford

Dropped Out: No. 15 Boise State, No. 20 VCU, No. 23 Buffalo

Not Good Enough: UNC Lacked Energy in Victory Over N.C. State

Nathan B — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 22:32:31 -0500

A fan is sometimes the harshest critic of their own team. However, North Carolina deserves a bit of criticism for their often lackadaisical play in a 89-80 victory over Tobacco Road foe N.C. State, an intense rivalry that dates back to 1913.

The game was the 10th straight win for the Tar Heels, all in conference play, but the lack of defensive intensity for long stretches of the game was troubling. The zombie-like home crowd wasn't much help, as they apparently didn't want to disturb any of their neighbors by yelling too loudly.

Despite allowing the Wolfpack to shoot .532 from the field and .611 from behind the arc, the game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates. The first half was hard-fought, but UNC was up by double-digits for almost the entire second half after an early 12-0 burst.

The most important development of the game was the return of Tyler Zeller, who scored two points and grabbed three boards in his first action since an early-season matchup against Kentucky. A late foul in that game sent Zeller crashing to the floor, breaking his wrist.

As Zeller took to the floor for the first time in months, the home crowd roared in approval; sadly, this was the loudest decibel level the fans achieved during the entire game.

I haven't seen the post-game press conference yet; I don't know if Roy Williams is happy. I can tell you that he shouldn't be.

Javier Gonzalez, playing point guard in a revamped Wolfpack lineup, shot 7-of-8, including 4-of-4 on three-point attempts. He didn't miss in the first half, which one would think would draw significant attention from the defense. Apparently, Gonzales successfully donned his Cape of Invisibility, because Lawson and the rest of UNC's defense consistently failed to rotate to him before he launched his long-range bombs.

During the first half, N.C. State was able to repeatedly pound the ball inside and score at will, leaving them a missed three-pointer from a tie game at the break.

Thankfully, Courtney Fells apparently left his game in Raleigh and the Wolfpack defense obliged with an even weaker performance than Carolina's, especially in the second half.

Tyler Hansbrough scored 27 points, Danny Green had 19, and Ty Lawson contributed 16 with nine assists, as the Tar Heels shot an exceptional .562 from the field and .867 from the free throw line.

Tonight's level of intensity was in sharp contrast to the 101-87 victory over UNC's primary rival, Duke, a week ago. The Heels weren't moving their feet on defense, they weren't trapping at all, and for at least 20 minutes, they allowed N.C. State to set the pace of the game.

Though Wayne Ellington ended up 7-of-12 from the field, his first-half shot selection was questionable. At many times early in the game, UNC started making one of their fatal mistakes: playing "outside-in," or basically taking perimeter shots without even attempting to first penetrate or force the ball inside.

This is not the kind of play that will garner critical wins in the NCAA Tournament. This is the type of effort that a more defensively skilled team could make UNC pay for.

I'm willing to chalk this one up to a bit of a letdown after key road wins in Durham and Miami. Perhaps the Tar Heels thought this was one would be easy, though they'd be wise to remember the Boston College game before they get too confident.

Tar Heel fans, you need to up your intensity in the stands. Tar Heel players, you need to up your intensity on the defensive side of the floor. Feed off of each other.

It is great to see UNC win on any night, especially against a rival that is generally detested in a different, more visceral way than Duke, but this level of effort is not going to be good enough in March.

Memphis Tops A New Top 25 Poll: Outside The Power Conferences

Nathan B — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 21:37:22 -0500

Much has been made of the meaningless "conference comparison" between the current behemoths of college basketball—the Big East and the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The discussion is fun for fans of the sport (when it stays civil), but it means nothing to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee who ranks and seeds teams regardless of conference affiliation.

The "Big Six" conferences (the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac-10, and SEC) dominate most of the top-25 rankings, most of the television time, and a majority of college basketball discussions that don't include the words "mid-major" or "bubble."

In the spirit of Bracket Buster week, I present a top 25 that looks at teams outside the Big Six. Capsules are included for the top 10.

1. Memphis Tigers (22-3, 10-0 Conference USA)

Memphis' last loss was to Syracuse almost two months ago, and they have continued their unbelievable conference winning streak—thoroughly dominating Tulsa and Southern Mississippi to run the streak to 52 consecutive in Conference USA. The seniors on this team have won an astounding 126 games.

2. Gonzaga Bulldogs (19-5, 10-0 West Coast Conference)

The drop-off from No. 1 to No. 2 is significant, considering that Memphis dominated the Bulldogs on the road, 68-50. The drop-off from No. 2 to the rest of the field is fairly significant as well. If Patrick Mills of the St. Mary's Gaels doesn't break his wrist, Gonzaga is not even the best team in the WCC.

3. Davidson Wildcats (22-4, 15-1 Southern Conference)

Davidson, like many of the mid-majors of late, slipped in a surprising 77-75 loss to the Charleston Cougars, who have dropped to No. 3 in the SoCon South (and overall) standings with two losses to the Citadel Bulldogs. Charleston was a surprising loss for Davidson, but not an awful one. Charleston defeated likely NCAA tournament team South Carolina earlier in the season.

The more pressing matter is Stephen Curry's ankle sprain, which is currently listed as day-to-day. Expect Curry to be fully healed by the time the conference tournament rolls around, though he may be out for a much-anticipated clash with a ranked Butler squad. Davidson should be able to handle the rest of their SoCon opponents, even without Curry.

4. Dayton Flyers (23-3, 9-2 Atlantic 10)

I have enjoyed the wrath of mostly anonymous Dayton fans ever since writing a critical article of both their schedule and their close wins over poor teams and three losses to mediocre (or worse) teams—most recently at Charlotte, after early-season losses to Creighton and Massachusetts.

However, Butler's loss to a terrible Loyola (Chicago) team causes them to slip behind Dayton in the current poll. Until the Flyers actually lose the close games they have pulled out (including a one-point win over 3-19 Fordham), this is the appropriate spot for them.

5. Xavier Musketeers (21-4, 9-2 Atlantic 10)

Xavier's upside and potential may be higher than Dayton's, but their loss to the Flyers necessitates falling a spot below them. The Musketeers have now lost two of three, dropping a game at Duquesne, a team that Dayton defeated handily on the road.

6. Butler Bulldogs (22-3, 13-2 Horizon League)

Two weeks ago, they were easily the class of the mid-majors, earning a top-15 ranking as they cruised through the Horizon League schedule. The loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay can be forgiven; the Bulldogs were on the road and the Phoenix are a quality team at No. 2 in the Horizon.

Today's loss to Loyola (Chicago) is a far different scenario. The Ramblers are a sub-.500 team that was coming off of six straight losses, including a 71-47 shellacking at Valparaiso just two days before the tilt with Butler.

7. Utah State (24-2, 12-1 Western Athletic Conference)

There's no shame in the loss at Boise State, easily the No. 2 team in the WAC. It did snap the Aggies' 19-game winning streak and will also likely make for a short stay in the polls for USU. They are still likely to earn an at-large berth even without a conference championship if they get back to their winning ways.

A showdown with St. Mary's of the WCC looms—a team that looks a bit lost without Patrick Mills. The Gaels can't be taken lightly, however, as they gave Gonzaga all they could handle in last week's matchup. The only challenging conference game remaining is at the underrated Nevada Wolfpack on Feb. 28.

8. Siena Saints (20-6, 14-1 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference)

Though Siena hasn't been able to pull out victories against most of the quality teams they have faced, they have ripped through the MAAC and reestablished themselves as the team to beat in the conference, with a two-game lead over Niagara.

Some non-conference wins look more impressive now, including wins over MAC leader Buffalo and WAC contender Boise State. The Saints are a two-point loss at Rider (the MAAC's No. 3 team) from being undefeated in conference play. Half of Siena's losses came between Nov. 27 and Nov. 30, 2008 by a total of 17 points. Another two are to highly-ranked teams Pittsburgh and Kansas.

9. Utah Utes (18-7, 9-2 Mountain West Conference)

This is awfully low for a Mountain West team, as it may be the strongest of the non-Big Six conferences, with four teams (Utah, UNLV, San Diego State and BYU) having reasonable shots at an NCAA Tournament berth. However, the top teams have beat each other up in Texas-Oklahoma-Texas Tech football fashion, with a few non-conference losses sprinkled in.

Utah is on a six-game tear that includes wins at home over BYU and San Diego State. Their last two losses? They are to UNLV and San Diego St. Early-season losses to Southwest Baptist (ouch) and at Idaho State are long forgotten. Wins over Gonzaga and LSU (by a stunning 30 points) are not.

10. San Diego State Aztecs (18-6, 8-3 Mountain West Conference)

So, no surprise here, because the Aztecs' two most recent losses are to Utah and BYU. See above about the MWC shooting each other in the feet. With just one (somewhat) bad loss at Wyoming, San Diego State is solidly on the NCAA bubble. The Aztecs' stretch run includes critical home games against BYU and UNLV. In true MWC spirit, expect a split.

11. UNLV Runnin Rebels (19-6, 7-4 Mountain West Conference)

12. Brigham Young Cougars (19-5, 7-3 Mountain West Conference)

13. St. Mary's Gaels (20-5, 7-4 West Coast Conference)

The Gaels are collapsing without Patrick Mills, but put up one hell of a fight against Gonzaga this week.

14. Creighton Bluejays (21-6, 11-4 Missouri Valley Conference)

The Bluejays are quickly becoming the class of the MVC, winning seven of their last eight. They also have a win against Dayton on their resume.

15. Boise State Broncos (17-7, 7-4, Western Athletic Conference)

The Broncos scored a huge win over Utah State this week to shoot up these rankings.

16. Houston Cougars (16-7, 7-3 Conference USA)

It would have helped if Aubrey Coleman hadn't been suspended in the Cougars' loss to conference rival UTEP.

17. UAB Blazers (17-8, 7-3 Conference USA)

18. Niagara Purple Eagles (21-6, 12-3 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference)

19. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (17-9, 7-4 Conference USA)

20. Virginia Commonwealth (18-8, 11-4 Colonial Athletic Association)

Eric Maynor keeps this team in the top 20 all by himself.

21. Illinois State Redbirds (20-5, 9-5 Missouri Valley Conference)

The opening-season winning streak is long forgotten. With five conference losses, the Redbirds will need a conference tourney win to make the Big Dance this year, something this team is completely capable of.

22. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (17-8, 11-3 Sun Belt)

Big wins (e.g., Louisville) and bad losses (e.g., at Denver) make this team very difficult to figure out.

23. Buffalo Bulls (17-6, 9-2 Mid-American Conference)

Their weekend loss to Ball State hurts their standing here.

24. Vermont Catamounts (20-7, 11-3 American East)

They've won 11 of 12 but two losses to Binghamton are a stain on their record.

25. Binghamton Bearcats (17-8, 10-3 American East)

Just Missed the Cut: VMI (Big South), George Mason (CAA), Northeastern (CAA), Northern Iowa (MVC), Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt), North Dakota State (Summit)

Others Considered: New Mexico (MWC), Wisconsin-Green Bay (Horizon), Portland (WCC), Troy (Sun Belt), Weber State (Big Sky), Charleston (Southern), Hofstra (CAA), UTEP (CUSA), Robert Morris (Northeast), UT-Martin (Ohio Valley), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Portland State (Big Sky), Temple (A-10), Central Florida (CUSA), Duquesne (A-10), American (Patriot)

Take The Fork Out of Notre Dame: Irish Begin a Magic Carpet Ride

Nathan B — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 22:58:01 -0500

One win does not a season make. One loss does not a season break.

But if a single win has the potential to transform devastation into elation, Notre Dame's (13-10, 4-7 Big East) 90-57 blowout of No. 5 Louisville (18-5, 9-2) may just do the trick.

Don't think for a minute that I'm jumping back on the Irish bandwagon. I touted them and Georgetown as preseason Big East title contenders and they have both done everything possible to (help) make me look like an idiot since December.

The proverbial fork wasn't just unceremoniously jammed into Notre Dame; it was twisted, pulled out, covered in ricin, and driven back in. In a neutral assessment, I'm asserting that Notre Dame still has a valid shot at the NCAA tournament and it all started tonight with their unlikely victory over the Cardinals.

Notre Dame really doesn't have to pull off anything too extraordinary; in fact, they likely will only need to win one or two games that they would not be already favored in.

In recent weeks, the Fighting Irish have dropped seven straight games, with all but one of the losses being to ranked teams (most of them top 15). The seventh loss was to a solid Cincinnati squad (17-8, 7-5). Combined with a loss to St. John's, the Irish seemed destined for an NIT bid at best.

However, with the worst of their nightmarish schedule behind them, it might not be so hard for the Irish to make a case in the beastly Big East after all.

It is relatively safe to assume that if Notre Dame climbs to .500 in league play and can get one win over the two remaining ranked opponents they face (at Connecticut or, more likely, home against Villanova), it will be a matter of winning the games they are supposed to and taking a couple of games against similar-strength opponents.

Notre Dame's remaining schedule looks like this:

Home: South Florida (Feb. 15), Rutgers (Feb. 25), Villanova (Mar. 2), St. John's (Mar. 6)

With the exception of Villanova, the Irish will be favored by significant margins. Notre Dame should be plenty motivated for the final game against St. John's, since the Red Storm started their downward spiral in the first place and it will be the last game of the regular season.

Away: at West Virginia (Feb. 18), at Providence (Feb. 21), at Connecticut (Feb. 28)

Providence has lost three of four, the only victory in that span being at South Florida (8-15, 3-8). It hasn't been pretty for the Friars; they have lost by an average of 21 points and the defense has been awful in recent weeks. The offensive firepower Providence displayed against Seton Hall, Syracuse, and Villanova seems to have tapered off as well.

West Virginia has lost three of four as well (the lone win being against the aforementioned Friars). Though defensively stronger than Providence, the Mountaineer offense seems to have gone into hibernation. They were only able to put up 59 points in their most recent loss at Pittsburgh and have been averaging in the low 60s in the last couple of weeks.

Since Notre Dame needs to go 5-2 to reach .500 in Big East play, they would need to win the three "easy" home games and split with WVU, Providence, UConn, and Villanova.

Their overall record would be 17-12, nothing to write home about in some conferences, but not devastatingly bad in the Big East.

It certainly would be helpful if one of their wins came against either Villanova or Connecticut, but wins over West Virginia and Providence instead may very well land them on the right side of the bubble.

The Irish would likely need a couple wins in the Big East tourney to seal the deal if they go this route, however.

Luke Harangody continues to post Player of the Year numbers, tallying 32 points and 17 rebounds against Louisville tonight, in the largest-ever margin of victory for Notre Dame over a Big East opponent since they joined the conference.

But Harangody can't carry this team on his back all by himself. Tonight, he had significant support from Ryan Ayers (19 points) and Tory Jackson (14 points), and the entire team turned up the defensive intensity several notches.

It remains to be seen whether this game was a defensive anomaly for Notre Dame or a sign that they have begun to turn their season around.

Looking at the remaining schedule, it's fair to say that we might have to pull that fork out of the Irish at least one last time.

Does Dayton Deserve an NCAA Tourney Bid? Survey Says...No

Nathan B — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:36:36 -0500

Some people might suggest I've had it out for the Dayton Flyers (21-3, 7-2 Atlantic Ten) all year long. In a way, they would be right. I think that for much of the year they have been one of the most overrated, unnecessarily-praised teams in the land.

The whole premise of the "Dayton bandwagon" was a single victory over Marquette back in November, when Marquette was ranked No. 15. Currently, Marquette is ranked No. 10, though they may not stay there long after back-to-back losses to South Florida and Villanova.

The win was a good win, but the résumé becomes extraordinarily thin after the game with the Warriors.

Dayton hovered at the edge of the AP and Coaches' Poll rankings due to a string of victories in an incredibly weak conference, punctuated by painful losses to Creighton of the MVC (by 18 points) and the No. 10 team in their conference, Massachusetts (8-13, 3-5 Atlantic Ten). UMass handled them easily, 75-62.

Worse yet, the Flyers are playing terribly in the vast majority of their conference games (and many of their non-conference games), and they have been eking out victories against teams they should have been blowing away.

They beat Wofford (11-11, 7-6 Southern) by three.

They edged SEC weakling Auburn by just one.

Four-point wins were all the Flyers could muster at MAC foe Akron and at home against the CAA's George Mason (which, by the way, is probably their next-best victory after Marquette).

In conference play, Dayton hung on for a 72-71 victory over the worst team in the A-10, Fordham (3-17, 1-7 A-10).

The Flyers performed "twice as well" with a two-point win over Fordham's basement roommate, George Washington (7-13, 1-7 A-10).

Add in a one-point home win over St. Louis (14-9, 5-4 A-10) and a two-point victory at LaSalle (12-10, 3-5 A-10) to boot. There's "winning ugly," which isn't always a bad thing, but this is simply "playing ugly."

This terrible basketball led to a gaudy record of 21-2 and prognostications of a seven or eight seed in March before the Flyers' poor play finally caught up with them last Sunday.

Ahead by six in the second half against a poor Charlotte (8-14, 2-6) team, Dayton squandered every opportunity they had and lost by 13. Dayton doubled Charlotte's turnover total, and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game, including coaching.

The Flyers managed to lose by double digits despite shooting .500 from the field and .538 from behind the arc, which shows just how awful they were otherwise. In fact, Dayton shot better from the field than they did from the free throw line (.450, 9 of 20).

Dayton has been one of the worst free throw shooting teams all year, and the game against the 49ers was no exception.

If a team is 21-3, they need more than one quality win from three months ago to make the Big Dance. Their losses are bad enough, but some of their wins are even worse.

They have two games left against Xavier and one with Duquesne. If they lose all three of those games, there probably won't be any talk of March "bubbles," but if they lose even two of three, I'd seriously question whether they deserve to be discussed.

That's assuming, of course, that they run the table on the rest of their A-10 opponents, something that is far from a lock for the Flyers.

If the tournament started today, this team should be excluded because, to put it plainly, there are far more deserving at-large teams who actually decided to play someone in December or at least challenge themselves with a significantly better non-conference slate.

Unless someone pulls an upset in the conference tournament, don't be surprised to see just one Atlantic 10 team in the NCAA tournament this year.

Let Dayton try their hand at the NIT. They'll see better competition there than they have for the majority of the season, anyway.

Creature vs. Creature: Duke, UNC Battle for ACC Supremacy

Nathan B — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 16:58:58 -0500

For one night, throw the national rankings out the window.

Take the RPI to the garbage can. Send strength of schedule to the shredder. Kick Pomeroy to the curb. Overall record? Please.

When North Carolina (21-2, 7-2 ACC) travels eight miles up Highway 15/501 to meet Duke (20-3, 7-2 ACC), a rivalry will be renewed that remains not only the greatest in college basketball, but perhaps in all of sport.

Though always special, this game will mean even more on Wednesday night, because the winner takes sole possession of first place in the toughest conference in college basketball. Perhaps more importantly, the victor will have local bragging rights, at least until the Mar. 8 rematch in Chapel Hill.

Duke has dropped two of its last four games, albeit it to strong contenders Wake Forest and Clemson, both on the road. The Devils needed overtime to dispatch with Miami on Saturday, though Greg Paulus excelled in a starting role for the first time since the beginning of the season.

North Carolina shocked its supporters and critics alike by dropping its first two conference games to Wake and Boston College, but the Heels have righted the ship in style, winning seven straight ACC games by an average of 16 points.

Bleacher reporters Travis Miller (Duke) and Nathan Bitner (UNC) break down the rivalry in a roundtable discussion.

Why does the Duke/UNC rivalry mean so much to you?

Travis: The matchups with UNC are always the most significant games of the season. It's impossible to gauge the skill of the team or success of the year without taking in the results of the Tobacco Road clashes. Regardless of record, the game is always heated and the probability of a special finish is sky high.

My least favorite example is the 2003 battle in which an NIT-bound Carolina team edged a top-10 Blue Devils squad 82-79 in Chapel Hill. Duke went on to win the ACC Tournament and advance to the Sweet 16, but for the gentlemen down the road, this was their National Championship.

Similarly, in 1995, Duke pushed a Final-Four bound Tar Heels squad to double OT, clawing back from 17 down. Duke was 10-9 at the time, without Coach K, and headed to their worst season in recent memory.

Bottom line? All stats are thrown out the door when these two teams meet, and anything can happen. Cliche, cheesy, true.

Nathan: This isn't just a battle between two great teams: It's a clash of two cultures. Eight miles may separate the universities, but the two schools couldn't be more different in nature.

One is the flagship state school; one is an elite, private, Ivy League school of the South. One is located in "the Southern part of Heaven," while the other is in a city that stands as a unique mix of gritty, hardscrabble blue-collar workers and upscale socialites.

Every man, woman, and child in the state of North Carolina has picked a side, except for those poor folks still hoping for a N.C. State revival. If UNC loses, your Duke coworkers will harass you incessantly; your Duke friends will leave you calling AT&T to unregister your number.

If UNC wins, you can remind your Devil buddies that they're paying roughly 25 times more for that piece of paper they get after (hopefully) four years. You can ask them if they've officially changed their name to the State University of New Jersey at Durham.

You can remind them that this pill won't be nearly as bitter to swallow as the loss they have coming on Senior Day in Chapel Hill.

Going 2-30 on the season is just fine, as long as those two wins are against Duke.

What is your most memorable moment from the Duke/UNC rivalry?

Travis: If I had to choose just one, it would be Feb. 28, 1998 when Duke was down double-digits with only 10 minutes to go. UNC missed four free throws when they counted most, and Mike Krzyzewski earned his 500th win as Duke clinched the regular-season ACC title.

A close second is the Feb. 5, 2004 matchup when one of my favorite all-time Duke teams came back late in regulation to force OT and beat one of my least favorite Carolina teams (Sean May and company) in Chapel Hill, thanks to Chris Duhon's game-winning reverse layup.

Nathan: It's not always when they play each other. For sheer emotion on Franklin Street, I have to go with a single night (Mar. 25, 2000) in which Duke lost a game to Florida that would have advanced them to the Elite Eight, immediately followed by a UNC victory over Tennessee, as they won on their way to another Final Four. Both were stunning upsets.

An elderly man played the UNC fight song (including the commonly improvised ending of "Go to Hell, Duke!") for hours on his trumpet, and the streets were filled with revelers well past 2 AM.

How will a win affect the rest of your season?

Travis: Doubt may be starting to creep into the minds of Duke critics, which could start leaking to the fan base with another loss.

This season is supposed to be different than the disappointments of the last few years, when toughness and deep postseason runs have eluded us. Earning this win would reinforce, if not restore, confidence in the Devils and their fan base that Duke can beat a top team.

Though many games remain in conference play, it's never too early to think about ACC and NCAA tournament seeding, and a win would give the Devils an early advantage. Sending the Heels home in second place will be a huge step in the right direction.

Nathan: Travis laid it out pretty well. It's all about confidence. Duke plays outstanding defense and while UNC has notched some impressive wins, none would instill more confidence than a win over the uniquely challenging Blue Devils.

A No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament team (for either or both teams) likely means two games in Greensboro, NC, a huge advantage in making the Sweet 16.

What are some keys to your team winning the game?

Travis: First and foremost, Duke needs to make the most of its home-court advantage. The Heels will not be intimidated when they step on Coach K court.

Gerald Henderson needs to put the ball on the floor and either draw fouls on UNC's forwards or dish the ball to open up the outside game. Duke has a virtually unmatchable strength when they are clicking from behind the arc, but their defensive intensity may be even more important against UNC.

Now that Jon Scheyer has found his stroke and Kyle Singler got his Luke Harangody impression (5-for-23 from the field) out of the way against Miami, they and the key reserves all must contribute. Duke must impose its will upon Carolina early and do its best to control the tempo.

Turnovers must be kept to a minimum, because competing with the Heels in transition is like wearing that disgusting baby blue...just not a good idea.

Nathan: The keys are virtually the same for any UNC game. They need to play from inside-out, not outside-in. Find Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson inside and let Lawson penetrate before finding Danny Green and Wayne Ellington from outside. They have to establish the inside game against the shorter Blue Devils.

Duke also rebounds very well for a team with size issues, but UNC should be able to dominate the boards. If not, they could be in for a long night. Finally, the young but talented Tar Heel reserves (Ed Davis and Larry Drew II) can't be cowed by the situation or the deafening Cameron crowd.

What do you dislike most about your "evil" opposition?

Travis: It has to be the hideous shade of Carolina blue and the fact that the team refuses to play defense. Hansbrough's celebratory high-stepping after hitting the game-winner against Virginia Tech in the 2008 ACC tourney was incredibly annoying.

Nathan: Well, there's Coach K's infamous whining to the referees. Squealing, some might call it. No.s 2 through 4 have to be Greg Paulus, Gerald Henderson, and Greg Paulus. UNC fans are still smarting from Henderson's elbow to the schnoz of Hansbrough last season. Henderson hit him so hard that he left a black eye on Tyler's Student ID card.

Okay, you have to say something nice about the opposition. What is it?

Travis: Despite the loss of key players, UNC remains a top team in the country. The Heels are athletic and know how to play the game. I loved watching Hansbrough vs. Harangody, and I'd love to see him tear apart Hasheem Thabeet, too. You want tough? Psycho T is your guy. I respect the man.

Nathan: Honestly, previous words aside, Coach K is as good as they come. His teams are intense on defense, a direct offshoot of their Hall of Fame coach. Cameron is the most exciting place to play a game, the Dean Dome included.

At last...the prediction?

Travis: The contest should be fast-paced, but UNC has gotten too comfortable during their winning streak, whereas the Blue Devils have fought through adversity and stayed on their toes of late. Duke fans would love a Greg Paulus floor-slap, as long as he doesn't re-aggravate his wrist.

Duke 84, UNC 78, in regulation.

Hansbrough won't bleed, but hopefully he cries.

Nathan: It won't be easy but in the end, Hansbrough, Davis and Thompson will prove too much for Duke's smaller defenders. Lawson will continue to exhibit his outstanding assist to turnover ratio and UNC will get the pace they want. But is it really UNC-Duke if it doesn't go to overtime?

UNC 90, Duke 87, OT.

Ellington hits the game-winning three, leaving the Devils to battle for second in the ACC with Clemson and Wake Forest, two teams to whom they have already lost.

Until we meet again...

Illinois Shuffles Up the Big Ten After Putting the Brakes on the Boilermakers

Nathan B — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 16:14:33 -0500

The Big Ten has not been the easiest conference to figure out this season.

On Sunday, Illinois (19-5, 7-4 Big Ten) muddled up the standings a bit more by blowing out Purdue (17-6, 6-4) 66-48 and tying Ohio State (17-5, 7-4) for second place in the conference.

Just when it began to look like Purdue was going to make a run at Michigan State (19-4, 9-2) for the Big Ten title, the Boilermakers dropped two straight, losing to Ohio State last Tuesday before today's loss at Illinois.

The victory provided Illinois with a sweep of the regular-season series against Purdue and leaves the Fighting Illini just two games behind the Spartans, with one game remaining between the teams, to be played in Champaign.

Illinois has been extraordinarily inconsistent on the road of late, putting up just 39 points in a loss at Minnesota and only 50 in their most recent loss at Wisconsin (a team they easily defeated at home). The Illini, in fact, remain undefeated at home in conference play.

The only time Illinois has lost this year in front of their famous "Orange Crush" fans was a two-point defeat to the (equally orange) Clemson Tigers way back in early December during the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Fortunately, the schedule-makers were kind enough not to bring in Syracuse to Assembly Hall this year.

Despite a two-game lead and a home victory over Illinois, first place can hardly be considered secure for Michigan State. Four of the seven remaining games are road matchups for the Spartans, including in-state rival Michigan, Purdue, and Illinois (as well as a much easier tilt at Indiana).

The home games are significantly easier, consisting of Iowa, Wisconsin and a season-ending heavyweight battle with the Boilermakers.

Ohio State and Penn State (17-6, 6-4) could still make some noise, though the Nittany Lions' embarrassing 71-51 loss at Michigan indicates they are unlikely to challenge for the regular-season championship.

They also have a brutal remaining schedule that includes a home-and-away with Illinois and tough games against Purdue, Minnesota and Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have a slightly smoother road, though they still must face Illinois and Purdue themselves. They handled Purdue at home earlier in the week 80-72 and have won four straight. Two losses to Michigan State would cost them any tiebreaker with the Spartans, however.

So how will the Big Ten shake out? Anyone who insists they have the definitive answer better be channeling Nostradamus, because very little of the last few weeks has been predictable.

If Illinois takes care of business against weaker opponents on the road and can remain stout at home, the Mar. 1 game vs. Michigan State may well determine the regular-season Big Ten title.

Just don't bet on it.

Elliott Sadler By Far the Fastest Dodge in Daytona 500 Morning Practice

Nathan B — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 13:01:20 -0500

Practice speeds are often irrelevant at Daytona. For one driver, however, it was a relief to get off to a fast start after a tumultuous off-season.

Elliott Sadler, who nearly lost his ride in December, turned in the fastest performance by a Dodge in the Daytona 500 morning qualifying session. There will be one more practice for pole qualifying in the afternoon.

This was a session with cars going on solo qualifying runs, so the speeds are more relevant than they would be in a drafting practice.

Since the introduction of the new car, Dodge traditionally qualifies all of its cars well toward the back of the field.

They simply don't have the horsepower to compete in superspeedway (Talladega, Daytona) qualifying, but Dodge's superior handling at these same tracks usually brings them quickly to the front.

Sadler was 17th in the morning practice, far faster than his teammates (Reed Sorenson at 29th, A.J. Allmendinger at 30th, and Kasey Kahne at 38th).

The Richard Petty Motorports cars were the four fastest Dodges, further displaying the manufacturer's struggles with speed on single-car runs.

Bill Elliott turned in a surprising performance for the Wood Brothers (nearly shuttered at the end of 2008) in the No. 21 Little Debbie Ford to grab the top speed in the session.

Ford also had the second-fastest car with another "old guy," Bobby Labonte in the No. 96 for Yates Racing. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Martin Truex Jr., and Kyle Busch rounded out the top five.

Since only the top two cars will lock themselves into the Daytona field tomorrow, the speeds are not particularly important for the Dodges, who have no realistic shot at the pole.

It is vitally important for Sadler to get off to a good start this season in an effort to silence the critics who believe he doesn't deserve to be in the ride.

He will start second (by draw) in tonight's Bud Shootout, but next Sunday is when the real pressure will begin.

After the first Daytona 500 qualifying practice, so far, so good.