Bleacher Report - Articles by Mayoclinic 32

The NBA's Size Prerogative and the Michael Jordan/Kobe Bryant Anomaly

Mayoclinic 32 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:42:25 -0500

Boston, Massachusetts- Vince Carter had the ball isolated in the wing against Paul Pierce in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Carter is no pushover at 6'6", 215 pounds, but Pierce's 6'7", 235 pound frame hulked over him. After all, Carter is a shooting guard who hasn't added muscle to his frame since his Tar Heel days, and Pierce is a small forward who can wrestle Lebron James.

After Michael Jordan's retirement, scouts and general managers scoured the face of the planet looking for the next 6'6" shooting guard with jumping ability. What they failed to understand was that Jordan is an anomaly, that a 6'6" shooting guard is not as efficient as a 6'7", 6'8", or 6'9" small forward.

And so, we had a bevy of 6'6 Jordan clones—Carter included—shuffle rank and file through unfair media scrutiny, before 6'7" small forwards Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony restored the league back to its pre-Jordan normalcy, when big men and small forwards such as Magic Johnson and Larry Bird dominated the scene.

There is significant size prerogative in the game of basketball. Bigger is better. Longer is better. Stronger is better. These qualities trump speed and agility.

Take a look at the league today: the top teams are led by an elite big man or an elite small forward—not an elite guard.

The Cavaliers have Lebron. The Nuggets have Carmelo. The Magic have Howard. The Spurs have Duncan. The Celtics have Garnett and Pierce.

Guard-led teams are struggling—the Heat, the Hornets, the Bulls, and the Jazz.

The undersized shooting guard is being marginalized as we speak. And although the Suns are off to a hot start, they will not challenge league supremacy.

Size is efficient, and will eventually overwhelm speed, especially in seven-game battles of attrition. The Lakers, led by Kobe Bryant, are the lone exception, but they are backed by considerable size (Bynum, Gasol, Odom, Artest).

Kobe Bryant is the only anomaly to this size prerogative besides Michael Jordan.

At 6'6", he is the consensus best player in the league and has been in the top two for the past decade. But an oft-neglected aspect of his game is his post-game; like Jordan he is the best post-up guard of his generation, and that allows him to shift into more of a forward position on offense.

Even so, Bryant has found some difficulty when matched up against the size of Carmelo and Pierce.

The history archives support these claims too.

Championship teams have traditionally been led and dominated by big men—Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Reed, Moses Malone, Unseld, Hakeem, Shaq, and Duncan.

The size of the basketball court is a limiting factor against quickness and speed. Players are confined to a small space where open lanes are rare and speed bursts can only gain small advantages. Furthermore, bigger players operate closer to the hoop, where field goal percentages are higher.

As triangle offense proponents Tex Winter and Phil Jackson repeat, basketball is a game played inside out, not the other way around.

Ignoring the size prerogative has negatively impacted franchises looking for fresh talent. Trying to find Jordan clones, or Iverson clones, or clones of other successful guards, has largely led to failure.

But, I digress.

I remember thinking to myself that Carter didn't have a lot of options when matched up against Pierce. He certainly would be at a disadvantage trying to post, so after a few useless dribbles he took Pierce baseline. After Pierce cut him off baseline Carter could only spin back and launch an impossibly difficult fade-away.

On this night, Carter's world class talent would tease us again as his shot fell through, propelling his Magic to an impressive 83-78 victory over the Boston Celtics.

While Carter beat Pierce on that possession, we certainly can not expect that success to repeat, especially in the long run. It took a magnificent fade-away off a spin for a shooting guard to score against a small forward. Advantage, small forward.

And the only exceptions Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. But to the next 6'6" shooting guard, he may as well be trying to replicate Rembrandt.

Kobe Bryant: Lessons in Resiliency

Mayoclinic 32 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 06:38:39 -0400

“You can know [God] all you want, but until you got to pick up that cross that you can't carry, and He picks it up for you and carries you and the cross .. then you know.”

-Kobe Bryant on Quite Frankly, January 30, 2006

When ranking the best players to have ever played the game, the following names usually come up and together form the top tier: Jordan, Magic, Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Bird, Oscar, and West. Duncan and Bryant are current players, still building their resumes, who may ultimately find themselves in the same category, and some more forgiving lists include Shaq, Malone, Petitt, Hakeem, and Baylor. The majority consensus is that Jordan is in a class all by himself, with the rest forming a secondary subgroup below him.

Jordan was the perfect storm of domination and charisma with the immaculate and symmetrical body of work: an early career of absolute superiority followed by two pairs of legacy defining 3-peats. Bryant doesn't have Jordan's impeccable record; his resume has too many faults on it, the most noticeable being the 24-point lead his team coughed up at home in the Finals that cost them a Game 7 opportunity to win it all in 2008. But while Bryant is Jordan's foil, the flawed replica, he has uncovered new depths in dogged determination and professional technique.

Let's crack open the annals on Kobe Bryant since he switched over from 8 to 24, and see if we can't prove a point here.

Since the beginning of the 2006-07 season, Bryant has played in 289 out of 294 possible NBA games including playoffs, as well as two summers worth of USA basketball. In short, he has not taken a break from basketball for almost 3 calendar years, in a sport where even the elite tire after an 8 month season and need 4 months of rest. Factor in his age (almost 31) and the fact that he has spent the last 15 months with a wrecked pinkie in his shooting hand, and you may argue that this feat in endurance and persistence might be the most incredible achievement of his career.

The body of work accomplished during this 3-year period is mind-boggling: 2 Finals appearances, 1 NBA championship, 1 Finals MVP, 1 Regular Season MVP, 3 All-NBA 1^st Team selections, 3 All-Defensive Team selections, 1 scoring title, 3 All-star team selections, 2 All-star MVP's, 1 Olympic gold medal, and 1 FIBA Americas Championship.

To top it off, the consensus is that this 3-year window began after Bryant had began his physical decline, having reached his physical peak the prior season; he had just come off a 2005-06 campaign in which he averaged 35.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, and, despite having a starting back-court mate named Smush and a starting center named Kwame, came within a Lamar Odom defensive rebound away from upsetting the vaunted Phoenix Suns in the 1^st round of the playoffs.

There is a significant minority that places Magic (and sometimes Russell) in the same overall category as Jordan, with only the slimmest of hairs separating them from His Airness. It is within this minority that Bryant may one day be placed alongside Magic and Russell as players whose legacies surpass all except for Michael Jordan. Bryant still has 3-5 years of 1^st-Team All-NBA basketball left in him and the Lakers have a championship-caliber core that has yet to hit its peak. He will win between 0-3 more championships and Finals MVP's, and it is possible that he may add one more Regular Season MVP and a Gold Medal to his resume before he hangs them up. For possibly as long as 20 years, we will have witnessed the near-consensus most skilled player ever destroy opponents on the court – the tight rotation on his jumpers, the strong base as he twists and contorts to create space, the step-back, the pull-up, the fade-away, the step-through, the impeccable footwork, the lightning fast reaction, the silky handles, the myriad counters to every move, the shutdown defense, mental and physical preparation, and the list goes on and on. When it is all said and done, he will finish his career with more points, rebounds, assists, games played, and possibly championships, than Jordan. Put that all in Exhibit A for dogged determination and professional technique.

So what, then, that Bryant will never equal Jordan? Certain things are not under our control, with Bryant's case being his teammates, the size of his hands, the modern era of increased parity in which he played, and spending most of the prime of his career on a junior varsity squad. It can only be the stuff of fantasy to imagine what could have been had the 2005-06 Bryant been placed on the 2007-08 Lakers.

But does that not only make the storyline that much more compelling when it's all said and done, the redemption of Kobe Bryant? The basketball player who made personal and professional mistakes, who pushed through despite unfavorable circumstances and maximized the skill set he was given? There are the chosen ones in Jordan, Lebron, Tiger – athletes so charismatic, so flawlessly gifted and graced by circumstance that they are crowned with adulation by the entire world. And then, there are the flawed superheroes whose kryptonite humanity is bared for all to see – the game 5 humiliation at the Palace, the public confession of adultery, the front-rimmed fade-away jumpers. Bryant is not Jordan and never will be, but think about it this way: not to say that Jordan wasn't hard working, but if a lesser talent can overcome adversity through sheer determination and hard work, and leave behind a legacy almost as great, is that not victory for the rest of us, all the non-Jordans, the non-Lebrons, the non-Tigers? During this 7-year gap between Laker championships, Bryant has taken us on an incredible journey of ups and downs, and demonstrated to us all the resiliency of the human spirit as well as the promised, albeit sometimes delayed, renumeration for effort and dedication.

Do not be deceived, God is not mocked; for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap.

-Galatians 6:7

Kobe Retrospective, Lebron Perspective

Mayoclinic 32 — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 04:07:49 -0500

Proponents for Lebron inevitably bring up statistics—his points, his PER, his team's winning percentage—but skimp on the fundamentals of statistical analysis. The only way statistics can paint an complete picture is if we give Kobe and Lebron the exact same teammates, same competition, coaching staff, offensive and defensive system, and have them play in the same era under the same rules, and...you get my point. Otherwise, statistics suffer from systematic bias.

Lebron is currently 24 and at his physical peak, putting up 27.8, 7, and 7. It is the mid-twenties when players put up the gaudiest numbers. Michael averaged 37.1 when he was 24 and put up a 32.5, 8, and 8 season when he was 26. Kobe averaged a mortal 30.0, 7, and 6 when he was 24 and his following seasons saw a drop-off in production. Does this necessarily mean he is an inferior player?

Needless to say, he has yet to reach Michael's level and probably never will. But in Lebron's case, it is Kobe who is looking at Lebron through his rear-view mirror. Numbers don't tell the whole story, and here is why.

Kobe spent his early to mid-twenties as a secondary option on offense and a primary defensive stopper. He didn't have the offense run through him, as is the case with Michael and Lebron. Rather, he deferred (rightfully so) to Shaq. There is no way anyone, even Michael, could have averaged 32.5, 8, and 8 while playing second fiddle to a completely dominant, MVP center who averaged almost 30, 10, and 3.

However, Kobe showed he could play at a statistically superior level if he were the primary offensive weapon. In the 2002-03 season, he seemed to have no trouble scoring anywhere between 35 and 50 points a night when Phil Jackson established him as the primary go-to guy on offense. This leads me to the conclusion that if Kobe were in Lebron's shoes during those years, with the ball in his hands most of the time, he would have averaged significantly more points and assists.

The following season saw Kobe's career take a turn for the worse. Accused of sexual assault, Kobe was shaken to the core as he confessed to adultery on national TV. He played the entire season under the shadow of possible divorce and life imprisonment and while shuttling to and from court appointments. The psychological effects lasted well into the following season, when the Lakers went through dramatic personnel changes.

Kobe would not recover until he was 27, when he averaged 35.4, 5, and 5. However, once a player reaches his late twenties, his production begins to tail off - even Michael himself never averaged 30 again after turning 31.

These are examples of situational factors that render statistics alone inadequate when comparing players. A more viable way of comparison is to skip the numbers altogether and compare the different facets of their game, from shooting to defense, handles to court vision. Although virtually all analysts would place Kobe ahead of Lebron here, this method is also incomplete.

However, we have one jewel right before our eyes that can cast true insight into how Kobe and Lebron really compare—their experience as teammates during the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Playing at the same time, on the same team, eliminates so many of the aforementioned factors that can lead to systematic bias, the only exception being that Kobe was virtually 30 and in the downside of his career, while Lebron was a fresh 23 and ready to attack at any moment.

So, who was the best player of the tournament? Statistics may point to Dwyane Wade, but remember he put up his numbers mainly against the opponents' B-squads, as Wade was not in the starting five. Even so, he may very well have been the best player of the tournament. But, with all due respect to Wade, and Chris Paul, it is obvious to everyone that the discussion boils down to Kobe and Lebron.

And, here is the tale of the tape. Lebron would razzle dazzle for most of the game while Kobe would spend most of his energy on defense, allowing his offense to come to him. Even so, the opposing defenses double teamed him more often. Yet the defining moment came down the stretch of a particular game, namely the gold medal game against Spain.

Spain had cut it to a one-possession game with eight minutes to go, and suddenly, the pressure started to cook like nothing else in USA Basketball history. Lose, and USA Basketball loses everything. Everything. The entire three-year rebuilding and redefining process would be deemed a failure.

With the momentum completely on Spain's side, Team USA called a timeout. There were eight minutes left to validate Team USA's efforts on sports' biggest stage, to erase an eight-year Gold medal drought and a 16-year downward trend in the quality of USA Basketball, to place the United States back on top in the basketball world.

And in this defining moment, it was Kobe, not Lebron, who took the lead and led the team home. He immediately scored a runner in the lane to keep Spain at bay, before penetrating and assisting on a Deron Williams 3-pointer and then a Dwight Howard dunk. Kobe would then knock down a corner three and then a few minutes later complete a four-point play, fouling out Rudy Fernandez in the process. Lebron would then assist Wade on a corner three, one of only two baskets in the final 8 minutes that did not involve Kobe. Kobe would hit another runner after the three that placed the game out of reach. Just as fire tries gold, crunch-time defines leaders and the best of the best.

All in all, I have yet to hear one Hall of Famer say that Lebron is better than Kobe. Rather, I have heard the likes of Magic and Charles say rather matter-of-factly that Kobe occupies the top perch in today's game. Lebron himself knows it, and has said it multiple times. We see a general progression, from Magic and Bird to Jordan to Kobe.

Right now, Kobe is at the center stage, and Lebron is still waiting in the wings for his moment to come. The greats know what defines greatness, and while Lebron has room and time to improve, let's not give him undue praise, as such would be disrespectful to everyone, Lebron included. By letting everything run its course, instead of prematurely trying write storylines, fans can appreciate this game that much more.

The Mayo - Rudy Dilemma

Mayoclinic 32 — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 19:01:10 -0500

Rudy Gay is an electrifying player, but he is the Grizzlies' go-to guy only by seniority.

Indeed, in the span of a few games, OJ Mayo has proven to be a more complete player on both ends of the floor.

Rudy Gay has come through twice this year, once hitting a game-winning buzzer beater against Orlando, and another time hitting a pair of treys to seal the deal against the Warriors.

While this has put the can on the discussion as to who is top dog for now, look for OJ Mayo to grow into more of a creator and leader on offense, and for Rudy Gay to settle into a secondary role as a slasher and finisher.

Breakdown of Rudy Gay

The amount of time and energy Gay has put into perfecting his craft is evident. He has all the requisite skills to be a complete basketball player.

At 6'8" and 225 lbs., he is the ideal size for a small forward. He can jump through the roof and is built like a rock. He has three-point range. He can pull up either way, although he prefers going right. He can slash and finish with contact. He moves his feet on defense, reads passing lanes, and blocks shots.

However, he has yet to put together enough skills mentally to become the focal point of an offense. He is more Richard Jefferson than Tracy McGrady, more Jason Richardson than Kobe Bryant, more Travis Outlaw than Brandon Roy. He does not have that most elusive quality, that talent of understanding where all ten players are, where they are moving, and the correct read at any given situation.

The layman's term for this is "making teammates better"—because to the amateur eye, someone who is making the right split-second decisions reacting to team defenses (whether to drive left or pass right for a hockey assist, whether to spin right or do an up-and-under) naturally makes his teammates more efficient.

This is why on some nights, Gay excels, while on other nights he can disappear. This is why Gay is not a future Hall of Famer, despite the fact that if you put him and LeBron James in a gym and do individual workouts, you would not be able to tell them apart. Basketball is a team sport, and the elite offensive players manage the game, facilitate movement, and accurately read opposing defenses.

Rudy Gay is not as good a defensive player as he is an offensive player. Watching him get abused by Carmelo Anthony on the block tonight shows that he has a lot to learn.

This is not a knock on Gay at all. Anyone who averages 20, six, and two in his second season is doing something right. He will continue to develop into an All-Star. However, he has a teammate who will be an even better player in the future.

Breakdown of OJ Mayo

OJ Mayo does not play like a rookie. He plays like a fifth-year pro.

He does not barrel into opponents, trying moves he watched on TV growing up to see if he can't emulate them. His level of skill going one-on-one on the perimeter is, shockingly, matched by only a few guards in the league. His perfect shooting form has been honed and looks the same every time—a quality usually evident only in veterans.

While it is true that he is a few years older than most of his fellow rookie class, he is more than a few years ahead of them in his understanding of the game. Defensively, he plays unflashy but great one-on-one defense, reminiscent of a longer and quicker Chauncey Billups in that he rarely gambles. He regularly plays 42 to 44 minutes a game, making efficient movements on the court, and playing a safe style not conducive to injury.

Most importantly, OJ Mayo has shown that aforementioned quality that Rudy Gay lacks—the court awareness to make teammates better—in his high school and collegiate days.

Unlike Gay, Mayo does not play one-on-one or one-on-two. He plays five-on-five basketball. This is the unmeasurable quality that can make or break team drafts and scouting careers. Of the entire rookie class, perhaps only Mayo, Rose, and Beasley have shown this potential of developing into franchise players.

So far, seven games into the season, OJ Mayo has not yet been handed the reigns of the team. So it remains to be seen how much his ability to be the focal point of an offense and to create for teammates will translate to the NBA. He still has lots to learn, although it is safe to say he is farther along the way than any of his peers.

Finally, a rebuttal is in order for all the detractors who say OJ Mayo lacks elite-level athleticism. While he will never attack the rim like Dwyane Wade, that is more of a knack and a talent, than sheer athleticism. In fact, only one person (Patrick Ewing Jr., who was recently waived) posted a higher max vertical than OJ Mayo at the 2008 Draft Combine in Orlando. He is both faster and quicker than just about everyone else who tested.

Overall, he is one of the most athletic rookies in the league. What he lacks is a few inches in height and wingspan. While this will keep him from reaching Jordan or LeBron territory, it certainly does not keep him from surpassing Rudy Gay, or even (looking way ahead) becoming a future Hall of Famer.

In private circles, I have boldly predicted that Memphis will win 35 to 40 games this year. With the emergence of blue-chip prospect OJ Mayo, and Rudy Gay filling in the lanes, I'm taking this prediction public. Even though the Grizzlies have this dilemma on their hands as to who is the leader of their team, it's not like anyone in Memphis is wishing it would go away.

Brandon Jennings: It's About Time

Mayoclinic 32 — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:29:53 -0400

I have a background in law, business, economics, and common sense. Allow me to walk you through a simple logical process that will show you why David Stern and Brandon Jennings are geniuses—and why Myles Brand can thank the Lord for college football.

First of all, the NBA has the legal right, as a taxpaying corporation in the USA, to arbitrarily determine the age requirements of its employees. Therefore, the commish was able to flash his financial genius by raising the age limit.

This not only saves NBA franchises money, as they no longer have to scout so many high school games and add a year to the lifetime earning potential of new draftees, but it also increases the overall talent level and professional readiness of NBA players. No longer do teams have developing 18-year-olds wasting roster spots.

So the quality of the product increases, and the cost of operation decreases. Genius.

Secondly, in the USA, we are legal adults come age 18. We can vote, we can get drafted. We can incorporate a business, we can wait tables. We can invent new technology, we can play professional tennis.

Brandon Jennings is 18, and he is looking to maximize his earning potential to support himself and his family, as any rational adult should do. The NBA is no longer an option.

The next best option is the European League—and I have 300,000 reasons why.

The NCAA is a scholarship-based corporation and has the legal right to deem its athletes amateur, under the umbrella of providing them a free education.

This is a farce.

If what goes around comes around, Brandon Jennings should begin a wave of payback as elite NBA prospects ditch a year of no earnings for a year of six-figure income playing against superior competition.

The farce is the fact that the same unpaid athletes generate billions in revenues for the NCAA.

While this is technically legal, it disobeys the spirit behind the protestant ethic and has left a foul taste in my mouth. When I watch athletes like Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, or Greg Oden, I tell myself, these men are getting hosed.

Ever wonder why O.J. Mayo didn't have the most spectacular of collegiate seasons and spent a lot of time on the perimeter? Just remember—one injury could cost him tens of millions, and he was merely an amateur at USC.

I don't blame any elite prospect for not risking his body in anticipation of a 15-million-dollar payday.

If you don't believe me, you will after watching an entirely new and refocused O.J. Mayo a few years into his NBA career.

The European League is the perfect antidote for the farce that is the NCAA. Simple laws of economics portray this.

In a free market, quality is commensurate with price. Therefore, higher salaries under an equatable market lead to more talent and better competition. This is why the NBA has the best players in the world and the European League ranks second.

This is also why the NCAA depends on market intervention (the age requirement) to remain competitive: In a free market, elite prospects would all bolt to the NBA because the NCAA does not offer salaries.

Therefore, in a free market, the NCAA would largely resemble the NBA D-League—a low-cost and low-margin enterprise that is in-line with the level of talent of its players.

Anything extra—the TV contracts, the jersey sales, the ticket sales—that the NCAA enjoys today is buoyed up artificially by a few profiteers.

Which leads us back to Brandon Jennings, who is pioneering this new wave of European immigration. He, unlike Demar DeRozan, will earn a fair salary next year.

If the free hand of capitalism runs its course, eventually the NCAA will become like the NBA D-League. In fact, it has already begun this course—everyone is leaving early for the NBA, and its only star players are freshmen.

Look for more and more freshmen to bolt to Europe, leaving the talent pool even more depleted, which will turn off even more college freshmen.

Watch any NCAA game today and you will agree: The talent level is depressing. There are no post moves, no offensive creativity, no team motion—just a bunch of headless chickens running around and hustling.

The European League will get an influx of talent which corresponds to the six-figure salaries it offers. And our very own homegrown NBA will continue to remain at the top as long as loyal fans such as ourselves continue to show love.

Kobe Bryant: Legacy Defined

Mayoclinic 32 — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 18:50:22 -0400

Like it or not, the 2008 season is all about Kobe Bryant. The 2008 Finals are all about Kobe Bryant. This is his transformation, his redemption. Craig Hodges said it best: "When [Kobe Bryant] got the MVP, that was the saga, and now we're in the legacy." Every other basketball player right now is but a role player, a secondary character, in the story of Kobe Bryant as he chases immortality.

Kobe Bryant is no Michael Jordan. I am fine with that - God is mysterious with His gifts and He is sovereign. Jordan did it for 6 seasons, won 6 rings and 5 MVP awards. But for the latter half of this season, Kobe has reached Jordan's rarefied plateau. The way he picked apart the Spurs' championship caliber defense was as Jordanesque a performance as Jordan could have done himself. He finally was able to average more than 30 per while shooting over 50 percent from the field for an extended playoff run. He chipped in 6 assists and 6 rebounds per as well.

These two games at Boston should have been the legacy defining, crowning moment. But then, a few things went horribly wrong.

First, Kobe was called for his second foul in the first quarter after waving his hand at Ray Allen. Mind you, the Boston Celtics are vaunted for their physical defense and style of play and the series in general has shifted in that direction. Yet, on the greatest stage on earth, how do you call such a minor foul, when the greatest player of this generation is attempting to define his legacy? Kobe ends up going to the bench, and by the time he returns, the Celtics have turned a one point deficit to an eight point lead.

The Lakers would make a 31-9 run at the end of the game, a signature moment for the storied franchise. Kobe Bryant would finally break free and score at will against the Celtics, and the Boston Garden was deadly silent. Two field goals through the heart of the defense, a three pointer, two free throws, and suddenly it is a 2 point game with 38 seconds left. If all those hours of dedication and sacrifice would pay off - the off-season training, the two-a-days, the video sessions, the sleepless nights - then Kobe Bryant has done enough to deliver his team a win. Up to that moment, the Lakers were a +12 when Kobe was on the floor.

Paul Pierce, the warrior, heart and soul of the franchise, would not back down. But Paul Pierce is no Kobe Bryant. He misread the defense and stumbled into a double team instead of kicking it out. He flipped up a layup from 10 feet without even looking at the rim. It had no chance of going in. He had no elevation because he was jumping off his injured right knee. The Lakers rebounded the wild shot and should have had a chance to win it. Kobe Bryant had ice in his veins. This was the defining moment.

But then, something went horribly wrong in Kobe Bryant's saga. Paul Pierce was awarded two free throws. Game, set, match. Kobe Bryant would end up shooting 11-23, with 30 points and 8 assists, and the Lakers were a +8 when he was on the floor. There is nothing more he could have done to define his legacy.

What if Jordan was called for an offensive foul against Bryon Russell in the waning moments? His Bulls were on the road as well, and shouldn't the home team get the calls? If Kobe Bryant's hand in the face was an offensive foul, then there is no way Jordan's take-down of Russell wasn't.

I'm not saying that Jordan should have been called for an offensive foul. What I am trying to say is this: the game has lost its magic. There was a time in the past, when games made for storybook endings and the referees had a complicit understanding of it. As Reggie Miller would say, "let the players decide it." Tonight, Kobe should have had a chance to add his chapter to the rivalry. He should have had his attempt at the Magic baby hook at the end, except translated into his game and skill set. But it was all stripped away from him by calls that obeyed the letter, but not the spirit, of the law.

It is much easier for a third person observer to say this, but Kobe Bryant should walk away from this season, and eventually from his career, with his head held high. Whether he ends up with more championships, or not, we have witnessed his redemption from arrogant teenager and guilty adulterer. He has remained true to his promise to steward God's blessings as darn well as he knows how to, to maximize his ability to play the game of basketball. He has remained humble and grounded as well, respecting the history of the game and his seniors, absolutely ridiculing any attempts to place him in their stratosphere. Let it be an indictment of these times, then, when its all said and done, that the game has indeed lost that magic that gave it life in the first place.

Kobe Bryant: A Hollywood Ending, Except Avant Garde

Mayoclinic 32 — Sun, 11 May 2008 20:08:10 -0400

There was a time when movies had Hollywood endings, climaxes that sympathized with our emotions, our notions of what should happen, and conflicts that converged to the proper place. This was a time that made for storybook endings, when Michael Jordan battled through a flu and hit a game winner, or, when Kirk Gibson hit that walk-off home run in the 1988 world series. The Miracle on Ice symbolized the victory of democracy and freedom over socialism. Pete Sampras battled exhaustion, dehydration – and tears upon learning of Tim Gullickson's terminal cancer– and emerged victorious each time. To the sports fan, it seemed as if higher powers were behind the story line, lining up behind the stars.

And then, came the advent of post-modernism and the decay of meaning. Pulp Fiction signaled its humble beginnings. Why, we asked, why did stories need to have happy endings? Why does the good guy have to win? Why do scripts have to make sense? Without a higher power, a transcendent impetus, an angel on the subway, anything is possible. A recent movie, No Country for Old Men, underscores a worldview predicated on randomness and chance. And that, indeed, is the thrust of today's avant garde.

Such a post-modern script would have Michael Jordan battling through the flu and willing the Bulls to an incredible victory in Game 5 .. and then dropping two straight to a Jazz team that is invigorated, rather than overwhelmed, by His Airness. Such a script would have the USA amateur / collegiate hockey team resurrecting King David's memory and defeating the Soviet Union .. and then losing to Finland in the Gold Medal match. Such a script would have Kirk Gibson hit that walk-off home run in the 1988 World Series off two knees that had no ligaments remaining .. and then the Dodgers losing instead of winning in 5 games. Such a script would have Pete Sampras crying during the 1995 Australian Open, crying tears for his long time friend, drawing upon a deeper source of strength .. and then losing to Jim Courier.

But fortunately, the post-modern era was not alive back then, and our sports icons remain enshrined, rightfully so, in immortality, having found rest in those long corridors and hallways of our memories, neatly wrapped and never to be questioned again.

We live in a different world now, and not only in Hollywood. It seems as though the world of sports has caught on. Nowhere is it more evident than with Kobe Bryant, a career with the perfect storyline, and the meaningless ending.

It started in the 2002-2003 playoffs, when the Lakers were battling the Spurs in the 2^ndround, in a pivotal game 5 in San Antonio. Down two with time winding down, Kobe Bryant – the same Kobe Bryant that was maligned for not trusting his teammates enough – drove baseline and was double teamed. This time, Kobe Bryant made the right basketball play, and fed Robert Horry – Mr. Big Shot with countless clutch baskets – for an open three. This was the first year that Kobe Bryant would have won Finals MVP. Waiting in the East were the terrible New Jersey Nets. Win this game, and the deflated Spurs would head to LA, dejected. Kobe Bryant would have his Jordanesque, trust-your-teammate-moment, a la John Paxson and Steve Kerr. And Robert Horry, ice in his veins, was wide open in his pet-spot.

But Horry missed, and the Spurs would go on to win the championship. 3 years later, Horry would hit the exact same shot off a Manu Ginobli pass (Ginobli made the mistake of double teaming Kobe in the 2002 shot) to win game 5 for the Spurs, on the road in Detroit in the Finals, in one of the lowest rated Finals ever. Perfect storyline, meaningless ending.

It continued the following year, when Derek Fisher hit the shot of his life with 0.4 seconds left to practically dispatch the Spurs. Kobe Bryant had spent the year battling rape allegations, and had confessed publicly to the media and privately to God and his wife of the sin of adultery. Men marveled at his ability to excel under trying circumstances. This time, the storyline was richer – Gary Payton and Karl Malone, two ringless Hall of Famers – were on the team that was primed to win another championship – Phil Jackson's 10th, which would break Red Auerbach's all-time mark. Malone had limited Duncan, and then Garnett, and they were in the Finals, facing a Detroit team that had little championship experience. And Kobe Bryant hit the shot of his life in Game 2 – a three pointer under pressure to rescue his team from a 0-2 deficit. It was every bit a fabulous, career defining, shot, as there have been in history. As Hollywood scripts go, you couldn't write it any better.

But Malone suffered a career ending knee injury, and Derek Fisher suffered a debilitating foot injury, and the Lakers ended up losing all 3 games in Detroit. Perfect storyline, meaningless ending.

Two years later, Kobe Bryant would hit the equivalent of Michael Jordan's shot over Craig Ehlo that had eliminated the Cleveland Cavaliers in 1988. Except this time, Kobe did it against a vastly superior Phoenix Suns squad, in Game 4 of the 1^stround, to cap off a magnificent year in which he averaged 35.4 points. This was a squad that started Smush Parker and Kwame Brown at PG and C – two players that couldn't even make the Miami Heat and Memphis Grizzlies squads, respectively, two years later. It would have ranked as one of the biggest upsets in NBA history.

But unlike Michael Jordan's days, 1^st round series are now best of 7, giving much more opportunity for the superior team to win. So the series went on.

In game 6, Kobe Bryant hit perhaps the biggest shot of the season, a step-back 3-pointer to put the Lakers up by 1 late in the game – their first lead since the 2^ndquarter. An unbiased breakdown of the play would show that it was one of the most incredible displays of skill and mental toughness I have ever seen. Kobe Bryant would hit another layup the following possesion to extend the lead to 3, and the Suns were ready to go home. I told everyone, “It's Hollywood, baby!”

But, Lamar Odom failed to secure a rebound, and Kwame Brown was faked on a close-out, and Tim Thomas – the same Tim Thomas who had cracked Kobe Bryant in the head to win game 1 – hit a tying 3-pointer, and the Suns would go on to win the series. Perfect storyline, meaningless ending.

The latest episode occurred in round 1 of the 2008 playoffs, with the Lakers having an excellent opportunity to beat the Utah Jazz on the road. Hollywood could not have scripted it any better:

Kobe Bryant, the prodigal, has returned home. The once arrogant and cocky teenager, humbled by life, lost on the far side of the sea, has found his redemption. The same family, once torn by adultery, has stuck together for 9 years and counting, an absolute rarity in today's society. His teammates swear by his change – and commentators and former players call him the best teammate in the league. Generally acknowledged by everyone, from Lebron to Shaq, Magic to Bird, Popovich to Barkley - as the best player for the past 5 years, he finally gets his first MVP award, and shares the moment with his teammates and family. The same young man who used to robotically emulate Jordan during interviews would now genuinely smile, crack jokes, and humbly blush and ridicule any attempt to compare him to the game's greats.

10 years ago, he had completely embarassed the Laker franchise in Utah, shooting airball after airball. Now was the perfect chance to exorcise those demons, and Game 4 was the game.

But Kobe Bryant would suffer through a back injury 90 seconds into the game. Anyone who has had any of those knows you just don't fight through a back injury.

From the OC Register: "Utah coach Jerry Sloan also alluded to how Michael Jordan has done in the Jazz in the past despite appearing physically unable. “I've been in it a couple times and usually come up short,” Sloan said. “But our guys were fighting really hard.” Jerry Sloan sees the connection, but has apparently missed the memo here - we aren't living in the bygone era anymore.

A back injury is a completely different animal. It isn't a flu that can be conquered by effort. The harder you try, the more you move, the more it hurts and stiffens up. Ankle injuries, even knee injuries, can be temporarily compensated, but a back injury fundamentally affects an athlete's core. It was too painful to watch him kneeling on the floor, unable to get up. A back injury at such a critical juncture? It just didn't make any sense. It's the equivalent of James Bond being killed by a stray bullet. Of Superman accidentally overdosing on kryptonite. Herein lies the stratosphere that will always separate Michael Jordan from Kobe Bryant.

And, while no one in their right mind is placing Kobe Bryant up there with the legends - Michael Jordan, Pete Sampras - (he's still in his 20's and Jordan played in his 40's), it would seem that, so far, the magic of the classic times has eluded him. His legacy will be with the overachievers, the two-a-days, the 6AM summer workouts, the perfectors of the craft, the behind the scenes, but not the crown.

Given the storyline, it just doesn't make any sense. Why?

Maybe there isn't a why. Maybe Hollywood's avant garde got it right finally, and the rest of the world is finally catching up.

Dallas Mavericks: Better Off Without Dirk Nowitzki?

Mayoclinic 32 — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 06:54:19 -0400

When the Mavericks lost reigning MVP Dirk Nowitzki to a knee and ankle sprain for at least two weeks—adding insult to the injury of falling to 0-8 against playoff teams since the Jason Kidd trade—things were looking bad. The doomsayers, smelling blood, came out and started proclaiming fire and brimstone for Dallas.

However, the latest coming out of this camp is that not everything is gloomy on the Dallas front. In fact, Dallas figures to improve with Dirk out of the lineup. How is this possible? Are we putting our credibility on the line? While this may seem quite contrarian the opinion, upon further investigation, you will find that it is quite valid. So, just how will Dallas be better with Nowitzki, at least to finish the regular season? (No one is suggesting that Dallas won’t need Dirk for the playoffs).

Dallas currently has one of the most motionless offenses in the league—their half-court sets consist mainly of isolations and teammates standing around. This completely takes Jason Kidd out of the game, for Jason Kidd thrives on setting teammates up and running offensive sets. Jason Kidd’s half-court ventures with Dallas consists of throwing post-entry passes to Dirk and Josh Howard, and missing jumpers—Smush Parker could do the same thing. Currently, Jason Kidd’s only value is in running, and forcing, the fast break.

Dallas resorts to grinding it out at the end with teammates taking turns getting isolations. Why, then, do they lose? Because they don’t have a premier individual offensive weapon to close out games. Dirk, Howard, and Stackhouse aren’t the isolation players that Kobe Bryant or Lebron James, or even Dwyane Wade, are. And while elite teams have team-oriented offensive options to mix in with isolations (Detroit motion, Laker triangle, Utah pick and roll, New Orleans’ Chris Paul brilliance, Phoenix run and gun) – Dallas really doesn’t have that alternative. They don't have effective offensive sets. So, Dallas is forced to go isoand they have come up short.

Without Nowitzki in the lineup, there will be a lot less isolations, and the team will have to run offensive sets to get buckets. This usually does wonders for team chemistry and teammate recognition. Energy levels pick up, teammates feed off each other, and assists will go up. With more easy buckets and less grind-it-out possessions, the free flowing style (think back to the Steve Nash days, only with Jason Kidd) will return to Dallas. Case in point, on Sunday, Mike Breen suggested out loud that they run the pick and roll with Terry more often – yes, team play usually is more effective than individual play.

The game has changed now, and teams are moving faster and going smaller. Teams can get by with one slow, traditional big-man (think Shaq on the Suns, Yao on the Rockets, Dwight on the Magic, but he can run too) – but two big men on the court, the same time, slows the game down too much. Dirk and Dampier are like two dinosaurs out there.

You may counter that the Spurs are able to survive with Duncan and Kurt Thomas, but don’t forget, both of them are defensive aces, and the Spurs usually play at unreachable levels anyways. Dirk is a defensive liability out there.

This will be a test of Dallas resolve. Many times, it is through times of adversity that teams come together. If the Mavericks have an iota of character, they will come through during these tough times, much like the Rockets did for two weeks after Yao went down. The Dirk and Yao injuries could end up portraying very similar scenarios - losing a big-man who got you easy buckets on isolations, and the result being more effective team play, boosted morale and hustle, and better defense. And, don't forget, the Mavericks are way more talented without Dirk than the Rockets without Yao.

While they will lose some rebounding prowess with their MVP out, they stand to learn and build team chemistry and team play in the process. The projection here is that they will comfortably make the playoffs and start them on the road, and that any off-court distractions afforded by Mark Cuban will be negated.

And, if Dirk comes back to a Dallas team running smoothly, and quietly integrates himself in, then Dallas may end up a dark horse in this ultra-competitive Western Conference.

Unless, of course, Dallas pulls another Golden State and whimpers quietly into the night. In which case, I will never go out on a limb and defend them again.

OJ Mayo: Perfect Fit for the Los Angeles Lakers?

Mayoclinic 32 — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 10:08:48 -0400

As I pointed out in my last article on OJ, the average American college basketball fan knows little about OJ Mayo. They haven’t watched him play because USC basketball is never on national TV, and consequently rely on media portrayals, which are largely negative and paint a picture of an arrogant, selfish, and troubled gunner. Last night's loss might have reinforced some stereotypes, while in reality the USC squad was outcoached as Tim Floyd's double-team-Beasley gambit backfired. But these stereotypes couldn’t be further from the truth.

OJ Mayo takes 16 shots per game on a team that doesn’t even know how to run an offense, shooting at a respectable 44.2 percent clip, while making 41 percent of his three pointers. Having watched him play, I’ll make the case that too often, he tries to be too unselfish—to a fault. While he has indeed made teammates Taj Gibson and Davon Jefferson better, there are many nights when he leaves something to be desired, when he should have at least tried to take over the game—like Michael Beasley.

A few days ago, a long-time friend of mine made the comment that OJ “doesn’t dominate”—and I believe this is a far more accurate portrayal of OJ than that of the selfish gunner the media would have you believe. If anything, OJ lacks the ceiling of a Beasley or LeBron – but he is incredibly skilled, and has fine tuned his game to a level far beyond that of the rest of his freshman class.

Here, then, is why OJ Mayo would be a perfect fit on the Lakers.

Shooting: OJ Mayo has perfect shooting mechanics, and this is something that no one can disagree with. He has no hitch in his release, a quick release at that, and a tight rotation. He has a solid base, and doesn’t use too much wrist—one motion. You expect the shots to go in. The knock on OJ is that he has trouble getting to the rim and finishing—however, in the triangle offense, dribble penetration is not at a premium.

Defense: OJ Mayo is a lockdown perimeter defender who has shut down the likes of Derrick Rose and Jerryd Bayless. He moves his feet and has excellent anticipation. Currently, the Lakers are sorely in need of another perimeter defender to take the pressure off Kobe Bryant. All the cries for Trevor Ariza to come back – they would be immediately assuaged by OJ Mayo. He could spell minutes for Kobe.

Basketball IQ and intangibles: Phil Jackson doesn’t like to play rookies, but OJ Mayo isn’t your typical rookie. He is 20 years old, and will be 21 when the 2008-09 season begins—he should be a junior in college right now. He plays under control, and has toned his game considerably at USC—a sign of maturity and willingness to win.

Detractors say that OJ, at 6'5", doesn’t have natural point guard abilities. While I disagree with this—his floor game is at least as good as Larry Hughes—remember that Phil Jackson and Tex Winter’s triangle offense doesn’t require pure point guards. In fact, Phil Jackson prefers taller guards who can shoot and handle the ball: OJ Mayo.

There is so much talk about “potential” these days that we forget, most players do not reach their potential. Yes, it is true, that Eric Gordon, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, and Michael Beasley all have higher ceilings than OJ. This is why OJ’s draft status is at a low point now.

But the truth is, even though OJ may not have as much potential as his classmates, he has done a much better job working hard and maximizing them. Beasley doesn’t work on defense. Rose can’t shoot. Gordon doesn’t have a floor game. Bayless is light-years away from putting his game together. OJ—sure, he can’t sky like Bill Walker or Vince Carter, and he sure doesn’t get Jordanesque separation from his defenders—but he has worked enough on his game that it really doesn’t have any weaknesses.

OJ Mayo, if he continues to work on his game, can be a 6'5" version of Brandon Roy, only with superior shooting ability. Or, he can be a 6'5" version of Chauncey Billups. Now, that is something that would leave GM’s punching themselves for taking higher potential kids over OJ on draft night.

Now, the Lakers traded away their 2008 draft pick for Pau Gasol, so OJ Mayo on the Lakers would never happen. But man, oh man—it would be beautiful music if he played for the Purple and Gold.

Notes: OJ Mayo has had some negative portrayals of which NBA player his game resembles. Here are some facts to debunk those notions.

OJ Mayo = Ben Gordon? False. OJ Mayo is a good four inches taller and handles the ball better. Ben Gordon has short arms and thus is unable to play good defense, while OJ Mayo has a much longer wingspan. Ben Gordon's shot release is too high and consequently (by simple geometry) his shooting is streaky, while OJ Mayo has perfect shooting mechanics (start at 1:00 mark).

OJ Mayo = Stephon Marbury? False. Their games bear no resemblance at all.

Best of luck to a player who should already be in the NBA and struggling (but learning much faster) through his rookie season.

Keep Ya Head up, Kobe

Mayoclinic 32 — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 07:22:05 -0400

Kobe Bryant looked into the picture of Michael Jordan that zoomed into life in the film room. “The master,” he nodded, succinctly, as his eyes squinted in concentration, perhaps rerunning some of those unreal highlights of His Airness across his mind, “he perfected the game.” Michael Jordan’s legacy is complete, a legacy so surreal that it borders blasphemy to suggest that someone may one day match it. But here, at the bottom of the mountain facing that daunting task of another championship, we find Kobe Bryant, unconquerable spirit and unrelenting will, pouring his heart out on the hardwood, day in, day out, through all of its ups and downs.

Just remember, it is us, the fans, and not Kobe himself, who are forcing the unfair and premature comparisons. Kobe Bryant is a student of the game and honors its history. He knows very well the pantheon of greats and his own basketball mortality, and how insignificant one person is compared to the rich history of the game. This is evident through his interviews and talks – that once cocky and arrogant teenager has been humbled by life, humbled by the game he loves. The guy actually blushed when someone mentioned his name alongside Laker great Elgin Baylor and finds Jordan comparisons both untenable and disrespectable.

Honest humility is a most attractive virtue. Kobe Bryant’s humility in the face of his undying will to win is evident in his interviews, his demeanor, and his interactions with peers and fans. Don’t listen to the media or his numerous detractors, who would tell you otherwise, that Kobe is faking it. True, in the past he was highly unlikeable. But the media has missed out on the latter part of the story – his transformation - because it isn’t a cash generator. The public loves an enemy. If you have followed the guy since the Colorado incident, it is beyond obvious that he has transformed. The last time I heard, his family is doing wonderful. Forgiveness and redemption are freely given to those who desire it. Kobe Bryant has found his purpose and is living it out – not to steal the spotlight from the Jordans and the Lebrons, but just to honor his God-given basketball abilities as best as he can.

He knows what separates Jordan from him – the mitts, those million dollar hands, as Phil Jackson put it, that allowed Jordan to dominate near the basket were not part of God’s basketball gift for Kobe. As a result, Kobe’s game is forced more to the outside, and he has adjusted, becoming one of the game’s best shooters and ball handlers, and generally acknowledged by peers as the best player in the world today, and probably the best perimeter player ever.

But, as everyone from Tex Winter to Shaquille O’neal knows, the game is most efficient played inside-out. Every championship in the past 10 years has gone through Shaq or Duncan, and before that, through Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt, and Russell. Jordan was an anomaly because he was able to dominate the low post. Kobe is content to maximize his own gifts, and to perfect the game with his own, unique set of physical abilities. But he knows he will need to depend on a low post presence, and he has been blessed with one for most of his career, from Shaq to Bynum to Gasol. Funny how the pieces fall into shape, isn’t it?

Yet hands alone are not the entire story. Because winning defines the bulk of one’s legacy, sheer luck of the draw plays a huge role. As Tracy Mcgrady pointed out, basketball is not tennis – it is a team sport.

Michael Jordan was blessed with a dominant team during his prime years – a team that won 55 games without him in 1994 and went to the conference semifinals. He was also blessed with injury-free teammates for most of his career. He doesn’t know what it is like to suddenly lose teammate Karl Malone, the same Karl Malone who had limited Garnett and Duncan, to a career ending knee injury right before facing the Pistons in the 2004 Finals. This is a blessing that has eluded Kobe Bryant, who is playing with torn ligaments in his shooting hand, an injury that exacerbates his average hands, and who's team has lost Bynum for 45 games and Gasol for this current critical stretch. Yet his Lakers are a mere one game out of 1^st place in the West, the most dominant conference in recent memory. But ultimately, unless he wins a championship, Kobe Bryant will be viewed a failure.

There are times when I look at a superstar on a losing team, and I want to tell him, “Keep ya head up. It's not on you”

When Jordan drove to the rack and drew a three-point play on Charles Barkley in the 1993 Finals, and Barkley fell on his knees, realizing his championship dreams were over, I wanted to tell him, “Keep ya head up. It’s not on you. It’s Michael we’re talking about.”

When Nash got bounced from the playoffs, bloody nose and all, I wanted to tell him, “It’s not on you. The Spurs are the better team, and there is nothing you could have done. Keep ya head up.”

When Tracy Mcgrady held that press conference after falling in 7 games, I wanted to tell him, “It’s not on you. Keep ya head up.” The kid has arguably the second best career post-season averages, after Jordan, yet has not sniffed the second round.

Some moments are more personal and painful. When the Lakers were getting crushed in Detroit in 2004, when the Pistons were just pouring it on late in game 5, the clincher, when Shaq was sitting on the sidelines, listless, his aching body racked by age and no longer able to carry a franchise, and Fisher was crying besides him, there was Kobe Bryant, busting his ass on defense, hustling for every loose ball even though the outcome was decided, an extravagant display of energy and heart – all the way until the final buzzer sounded.

It was at that dark moment that I realized Kobe Bryant is no Michael Jordan – Michael would have busted the Pistons on the low block while Kobe Bryant continued to fire away from the perimeter. But I looked at that passion, that hustle, and I knew that Kobe Bryant left every ounce of his heart and physical ability on that hardwood. He could walk out of that building with his head held high – and Larry Brown recognized that in a brief post-game hug.

I see more of the same going down for the final third of Kobe Bryant’s career – a career marked by near misses. Remember Robert Horry’s missed three against the Spurs in 2002? He hits it, and the Lakers move on and win the championship. Instead, the Lakers went fishing. Horry would go on to hit the exact shot to propel the Spurs to the 2005 title. Two identical shots – one make, one miss, two titles won for San Antonio, and the middle third of Kobe Bryant's career is defined - one without a Finals MVP and one secondary to Shaq.

Kobe Bryant is old by NBA standards – pushing 30. Time is definitely not on his side. Time is pushing its case, and the onrush of physical decay and breakdown is waxing greater. The vicissitudes of chance and luck may swing in his favor once more, as it did during the 3-peat. Or, they may not. Either way, keep ya head up, Kobe. It’s not on you.

I was having this discussion with a few old time buddies of mine the other day, on a lazy afternoon when the same old basketball talk pushes beyond the realm of sports and into our daily lives. It was then that I summarized my views of Kobe Bryant as follows:

It's not about being the most popular. It's not about having the best public perception. It's not about boasting about your legacy in comparison with others. It's not about yourself. Rather, it's about honoring your profession, pushing yourself to the limit, and garnering the respect from your peers who have fought alongside you, or against you, who have no agenda. Therein lasts the unaging glory. Whether Kobe Bryant will reach that promised land ever again is irrelevant to sway the truth that Kobe Bryant has mastered his craft and taken it to new heights, and that his passion and love for his professional calling inspires his fans to do the same for theirs.

The Great Tracy McGrady

Mayoclinic 32 — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 20:44:31 -0400

His Rockets are in the middle of a historic 18-game winning streak and haven't missed a beat since Yao Ming's season came to an unceremonious end. They are a mere 1.5 games from 1^st place in the powerful Western Conference, the strongest conference in recent memory. But Tracy Mcgrady is far from having seen that proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. That won't happen until his team wins a playoff series. So, just who is Tracy Mcgrady? Does he fit the cliched mode of an underachieving talent? Or is he one of the greatest players this league has ever seen? A closer look at the player reveals that he indeed is closer to the latter than the former.

Tracy Mcgrady is, statistically, one of the greatest playoff performers in the history of the NBA. Mcgrady outshined Vince Carter in the 2000 postseason, when he first made a name for himself by playing tough defense. In the 2001 postseason, he averaged 34, 8 and 7. The following postseason, he averaged 31, 6 and 6. In the 2003 postseason, he averaged 32, 5 and 7 before falling in 7 games to the upstart Pistons, who would win the championship 1 year later. In 2005, he averaged 31, 7, and 7 before falling in 7 to the Mavericks. Last year, he averaged 29, 7 and 6 before falling in 7 to the Jazz, the 2^nd best team in the West, and the team that played the Spurs the toughest. He has averaged well over 1 steal and 1 block in career playoff games as well. Indeed, only a select few have had higher overall career playoff averages. Mcgrady has historically stepped up his game in the big stage. There is no doubt in my mind that, had he stayed in the Eastern Conference, or had better luck and / or teammates, he would have made several deep postseason runs by now.

The verdict, as of right now, 11 years into Mcgrady's hall of fame career, is that his shortcomings are physical, not mental. And by physical, I mean his infamous lower back.

When his back is healthy, Mcgrady is clearly the second best guard in the world, after Kobe Bryant. On some nights, his talent would even make him the best guard in the world. Mcgrady is, historically, one of the league's most productive 4^th quarter players, and, when healthy, has hit game breaking shots at as high a rate, if not higher, than his rival, Kobe Bryant. Mcgrady wants that shot and doesn't shy away from it, and I challenge any reader out there to point out specifically when he has choked in the postseason. Far from it, as I have already pointed out: Mcgrady's issues are not psychological.

When his back is healthy, Mcgrady is unstoppable in his forages to the rim, and his length and creativity allow him to finish. He isn't as compact and explosive as his counterpart, Kobe. He isn't as powerful a finisher as Lebron. He doesn't attack the rim as often as Dwyane Wade. But he is extremely deceptive with his moves, often using fakes to rock his defender the wrong direction. His hands are big enough to cup the ball effortlessly, and his left hand is as good as there is in the game.

Mcgrady is actually a better passer than Kobe Bryant in a half-court set. Part of this stems from the fact that he stands 2 inches taller and can see over double teams. He seems to have marginally better court vision as well, often finding the open cutter or a teammate off ball screens. It is amazing that, throughout the Houston years playing for offensively challenged Jeff Van Gundy, he averaged close to 6 assists a contest and found so many open teammates for layups. He is every bit the passer that Lebron James is, and an even better passer off the ball screen. His handles are impeccable, probably the best handles of anyone 6'8 or taller in the world.

Mcgrady isn't quite the open court player that Bryant, James, and Wade are, and he has to work harder for his buckets. Not only does he get less easy baskets off the fast break, but he settles more for the long jump shot. However, this has more to do with his ailing back (and narrower frame) than with anything else, because he is such a different player when healthy.

Back in the 2002-2003 season, people were debating who was the best guard, and possibly the best player, in the world, Kobe Bryant or Tracy Mcgrady. While it is clear who won that argument, it isn't like Mcgrady has forgotten how to ball since then, even though many detractors will have you believe that Mcgrady has taken steps backwards in his game.

Mcgrady had all of Kobe's moves on offense: the turn-around, rocker step, fadeaway, bank shot, step through, sky hook, the three ball, you name it. In fact, even today, only Mcgrady and Bryant are “complete” offensive players, meaning that they have a counter to every move. Lebron James needs work on his fadeaway when pushed out, Wade needs to learn to finish at the rim going left, and shooting in general, Iverson isn't very effective shooting the pullup going right, Carmelo can add some range and a left hand, and everyone else isn't close. Mcgrady isn't as efficient overall as Kobe, nor is he as relentless, and his defense isn't at an All-NBA level, and these factors separate the two. But Mcgrady actually makes offense look easier and more effortless, when he draws multiple defenders and sets up an open layup, when he runs the pick and roll with Yao, when he lulls defenders to sleep and strikes from deep – many times he has you scratching your head wondering if he is indeed more talented than that other guy, Bryant.

But back injuries have limited Mcgrady from playing to his full potential. Anyone with chronic back pain and / or spasms know the cancerous effects of them. While you can continue playing, you are less effective. You cannot help but settle for that outside jumper more and more. This isn't some ankle or even knee injury that heals itself, but rather a lifelong injury. People assume that you are playing at full strength, because you aren't sitting out for weeks at a time, but you are only a shell of your full self. This is the reason why over the years Mcgrady hasn't gone to the hole as much, and why he has had to work so hard for baskets.

While the majority of the media, and even some former players, notably Charles Barkley, have called our Mcgrady's mental toughness in this regard, that he settles too much for the outside shot, I must humbly disagree that Mcgrady's problems aren't mental, but physical. He isn't a Vince Carter who doesn't train in the offseason, and he isn't Nick Anderson with some mental storm raining on his head. He isn't some one-dimensional scorer like Alex English or Carmelo Anthony, because he has a complete floor-game and handles the rock better than many starting point guards. Rather, he is a player who, as evidenced by his career playoff statistics and this recent win streak, puts his heart and soul out there as much as his ailing back would allow him to do so. Anyone who has watched him through the years would agree. And, when he is healthy, watch out.

According to basketball-reference.com, Mcgrady's hall of fame probability currently stands at 86%, placing him 10^th overall among active players and 61^th overall historically. Another way of seeing this is that, Mcgrady, all 28 years old of him, has already accomplished enough to rank him 61^st all-time and is virtually a lock for the Hall. He still has many, many good years ahead, and many chances to finally put to rest those first round demons that have haunted him.

OJ Mayo: An Honest Assessment

Mayoclinic 32 — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 05:52:22 -0500

The USC Trojans are unranked this season, meaning they have had minimal national exposure. The front pages of ESPN and Yahoo! do not even include results of USC Trojans basketball games.

Did you know USC beat Cal last night? Probably not, unless you specifically follow the Trojans. As a result, most people have no idea how OJ Mayo’s game is translating at the collegiate level.

Yet, members of the media are quick to form an opinion on OJ, because he is another polarizing figure, a la KB24. Most of the commentaries this season are negative, because the Trojans are indeed unranked, and OJ Mayo is averaging more turnovers than assists. They have an image in their heads of a kid with a troubled past, who is selfish, who wants to be at the center of attention, and who was accused of assaulting a referee.

At best, these are fragments of the person of OJ as a whole, and because of the limited exposure of the Trojans this season, for many journalists they unfortunately make up the entirety of his persona.

What about an honest look at OJ Mayo’s game?

OJ Mayo is not the most naturally talented freshman in the nation. Exhibit A, we have Michael Beasley, who has taken what Kevin Durant in 2007 did over Carmelo Anthony in 2003, to new heights. The most dynamic scorer from the 2-guard position is Eric Gordon, who scores so easily and whose stroke is so pure, he has us rubbing our eyes wondering if Mitch Richmond stepped back in time and donned a Hoosiers jersey. OJ Mayo does not have the ceiling of a Lebron James or a Tracy McGrady, because he is 6-5. His athleticism is great, but not world class.

But OJ Mayo is, above and beyond, the best NBA-ready player in the world who isn’t currently in the NBA. There is a reason for this: he is 2 years older than the average freshman and his game is that much more developed. He has an NBA-ready body and puts on NBA-level moves on the court. Collegiate referees are clearly outclassed by OJ Mayo, because they haven’t seen a guard with that much skill step onto the hardwood in a long time. Two quick examples:

On a fast break against Arizona, OJ executed a quick step-through that left his defender dazzled and confused. It was an NBA-level move that Dwayne Wade loves doing, but the referee scratched his head and called a travel.

On a ball screen against Washington State, OJ split the defenders and was tripped. The referee once again scratched his head and didn’t blow the whistle. At that moment, it was clear to me that this is an NBA player stuck playing college ball.

My point is, even though Beasley, Gordon, Rose, Harden, and Bayless may be more talented and could easily end up better basketball players, they still look like college players right now. Except for Beasley, they still play like teenagers, and misread defenders and defenses. They get lost on defense and could stand to put on 15 to 20 pounds. They wouldn’t scratch the rotation on any NBA team.

OJ Mayo, on the other hand, has already mentally understood the game at an NBA level. This morning on the Dan Patrick Show, Tim Floyd called him the best player he has ever coached, collegiate or NBA—a list that includes a collegiate Tim Hardaway and rookie Jamal Crawford. OJ Mayo displays NBA-level reactions on the court, wins every loose ball, and plays with the poise of a grizzled veteran.

Unfortunately, OJ Mayo has wasted a year of his crucial development playing in a system with teammates and opponents that have nothing to offer him in terms of improving his game. There is a reason he averages more turnovers than assists—his freshman teammates are not ready to run the offense.

This can be blamed on the revenue-greedy NCAA, who, upon seeing the NBA rightfully draft away talented 18 year old adults, insisted on a no-freshman in the draft rule. OJ Mayo, who is old enough to be a junior, has clearly gotten the short end of the stick here. He should have spent this year honing his skill against much higher competition, in the pros.

Finally, here is a brief assessment of OJ Mayo as a player. He is at least a rotation player and will never dominate on the level of a Lebron or Kobe. He has a perfect stroke and plays elite-level one-on-one defense. He is done physically maturing. He plays with poise down the stretch and is a natural leader. He is far from the most talented player—he has trouble getting to the rim even in college—but he is a very hard worker.

If Beasley, Gordon, and Rose continue to develop, they may easily surpass OJ Mayo. Scouts who picture him as similar to Ben Gordon are way off, because OJ handles the ball much better and is a good four inches taller. He is a much better defender - probably the best perimeter defender at his level. Also, Ben Gordon's strength is his shooting, but Gordon's shot release is unfundamentally - too high - and as a result he is inconsistent (I am sure that any NBA watcher realizes that).

OJ's jump shot is actually better. In my estimation, he is a 6-5 Chauncey Billups—only with superior form on his jump shot (fast forward to the 1 minute mark if you want to see what picture perfect form looks like).

It is clear that OJ Mayo, 20-years-old already, should be playing in the NBA this year. He faces a much less steep learning curve than his more talented, but less developed, freshman colleagues.

Part 2: Statistical Portrayals of Kobe Bean Bryant

Mayoclinic 32 — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 05:08:54 -0500

In part 1 of the series I examined the overall media perception of Kobe Bryant and the prejudice media writers tend to show when commenting on such a polarizing figure.

I also made the point that often times the most accurate portrayals of someone come from primary sources, which in Kobe Bryant’s case would be current and former NBA players, coaches, and general managers, especially those who have competed with or against him. When the consensus of these contemporaries is that Kobe Bryant is the best we have today, that lends credence to that very fact, despite what secondary sources (i.e. white collar journalism majors with no NBA pedigree) might say.

Today, I will look at one area of sports media reporting that has literally taken on a life of its own—the statistician —and pinpoint its shortcomings and blow up that proverbial bubble.

Simply put, sports statisticians like John Hollinger of ESPN try to use numbers and statistics to answer the question, “Which player or team is better?” At the very best, we must admit that this is a practice of estimation.

Let's say LeBron James scores 25 points on 50 percent shooting, grabs six boards, dishes out five assists, and adds in a steal and a block to go along with two turnovers. Does that mean he had a better night than, say, Kobe Bryant, who had only 23 points on 45 percent shooting, five boards, four assists, no steals, one block, and three turnovers?

According to John Hollinger, the answer is a resounding yes, even if we factor in pace of game, true shooting percentage, and other statistical measures. Average that over a season and Hollinger would say that James is a better player.

However, there are many variables unaccounted for—too many to list. In fact, if statisticians were able to account for every single variable, then the field wouldn’t even exist. I would know exactly how well the stock market will do tomorrow and become a billionaire. We would have no more market crashes and supermarkets would never have to throw away unsold groceries.

Statisticians always acknowledge the shortcomings of their practice. This is why when Hollinger uses numbers only to come up with MVP or best player claims, he has brazenly stepped out of his boundaries.

The simple fact is, how good a player is doesn’t depend merely on how many points he scores or how many assists he accumulates. What if, in the above example, LeBron played against a tired, injured team that single-covered him? What if Kobe Bryant faced double teams all night and had many “hockey” assists (passes that lead to assists)? What if LeBron failed to step between a teammate and a ref and allowed that teammate to get a technical?

What if Kobe quarterbacked the entire team on defense and led a fourth quarter surge that doesn’t get recorded on the stat sheet? What if LeBron James accumulated all his points in the first quarter when the opposing team wanted him to score, but not his teammates? What if Kobe only missed two open men, but LeBron missed three?

What if Kobe played 80 percent of his fast breaks correctly, passing to the right man on the break with the highest chance of scoring a basket, while LeBron only played 70% of his fast breaks correctly, and sometimes passed for an open 15 footer instead of a layup?

Is there a statistic that measures how many defensive assignments a player missed? Is there a statistic that measures how positively a player affects his team’s focus? Leadership? Is there a statistic that measures how well a player allows his teammates to play to their strengths, as in a player that doesn’t allow Larry Hughes to drive to the hoop because he cannot shoot versus a player who leads on both ends of the court and therefore allows Derek Fisher to save his energy for crunch-time? None of these very important factors show up on the stat sheet.

Is there a statistic that measures how well a player performs his role? For example, what if LeBron James were asked by his coach to get 45, eight, and eight to demoralize his opponents and to dominate the ball, while Kobe was asked to only get 20 points and set up the triangle and score clutch buckets? LeBron would have failed his coach and gameplan, despite getting better numbers.

Finally, is there a statistic for “bailout” baskets—that is, timely buckets scored when the offense breaks down? For unexpected shots? For demoralizing, crowd-silencing plays?

These intangible factors do not show up on the stat sheet, yet the stat sheet is what John Hollinger and his like depend on for their conclusions.

I am not using LeBron’s example as a knock against his game, only as a clear and pertinent demonstration. Also, the "what if" examples are not reflective of LeBron's or Kobe's actual games; I am merely pointing out possible ways that statistics fail to paint a complete, accurate picture.

In the end, the measure of a player’s greatness is vastly too complicated for numbers to measure. Numbers can give us a hint, but in the end the overall picture can only be gleaned by the general consensus of the league, which, if you read part 1 of the series yesterday, you would know very well.

In no case are you valid in using numbers to refute the general consensus of the league, which is something that the likes of John Hollinger sometimes try to do.