Bleacher Report - Articles by Sean Cotten

Fall from Royalty, Part Three: The Final Touches on the Decline of the Sacramento Kings

Sean Cotten — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 10:49:54 -0500

By the 2000-01 season, Geoff Petrie had assembled a championship quality team from the ground up, turning water into wine in the Sacramento Valley.

For the next four seasons, the Kings played in the Western Conference semi-finals or finals and won at least 55 games a year.

What has King Geoff done lately? How has the 2002-03 team, which returned 11 players, evolved into the current roster following the Bibby deal? In this three-part article, I will go through the major deals, ignoring the Rodney Bufords and Ronny Prices of the world.

Part one described five key moves through the 2005 deadline deal of Chris Webber.

Part two got us through the transformation from good guys to bad guys that occurred in 2005-06. Part three will finally get us to today's roster.

First a quick recap: In the previous articles I explained how the Kings acquired Kevin Martin, Brad Miller, Ron Artest, Francisco Garcia, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Kenny Thomas. That leaves us with only the final touches, up to the Kings most recent decision to give the Hawks Mike Bibby for three expiring IOUs and a second-round pick that just happened to come off the board at number five two years ago.

On to the final chapter...

Step 10: Fired Rick Adelman and hired Eric Musselman (Summer 2006)

Despite reeling off a 26-14 record to end the season and creating a new identity for the Kings in the mold of its newest star, Artest, Adelman got the axe at the end of the 2005-06 season. While I am not entirely sure what Geoff Petrie had to do with this, I can only say BOO!

Why would you fire a Hall of Famer in favor of a guy with a 45 percent career winning percentage in the NBA? Perplexing.

With the hindsight of the problems of the Musselman era in Sacramento, I can only say double BOO.

Given all that Adelman did for Sacramento, he deserved to decide for himself when he was ready to leave. I get pretty upset when I realize that he's now enjoying a 13-game winning streak in Houston and keeping that team in the thick of the Western Conference race.

Step 11: Draft Quincy Douby (Summer 2006)

If this weren't a draft I would ignore this transaction altogether. Given his lack of playing time, you almost have to consider Douby on a per minute basis. According to Basketball Reference, per 36 minutes he puts up the following poo-poo line: 13 PPG, 1.7 APG, 2.2 TOPG, 4 RPG. In actuality, he's averaging only 4 PPG. Plus, for a guy who could supposedly fill it up in college, he's having a lousy career thus far, 37 percent FG and 30 percent 3FG.

So, what were the options? Well, for starters the Kings have not had a decent backup point guard since Bobby Jackson left (Step 7), so drafting a solid PG should have been the focus.

However, Douby (at best an undersized shooting guard) was selected with the 19th pick, ahead of PGs Rajon Rondo, Kyle Lowry, Marcus Williams, Jordan Farmar, Sergio Rodriguez, Booby Gibson...seriously, should I even continue? There is no chance that any GM would consider a Douby for (fill in the blanks with any of these guys), even if you tossed in a second-rounder for good measure. This was a big miss.

Step 12: Sign John Salmons (Summer 2006)

I hated this deal when it went down. Here's proof from an entry in my old blog:

"Can someone please explain to me why my Kings thought it necessary to pay $5 million over 5 years to a guy with career averages of 5 pts, 2 rebs and 2 assists? Not to mention the fact that they already have full house of 6 players at 6-7 or 6-8 on the roster...and Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia at the same position, but who can actually shoot. Why not give Bonzi $8 million? At least he cleans the glass and bullies dudes. From what I can tell Salmons is a jack-of-no-trades...

My friend Hutch: Who is John Salmons?

How can the King's spend $5 million a year for John Salmons and the Wizards sign DeShaun Stevenson for less than a million per? Damn that's frustrating"

I still think the Kings would be much better off with Bonzi than Salmons and would have received similar contributions from DeShawn Stevenson if the Kings signed him to the two-year (NBA minimum) $2 million deal the Wizards inked.

While Salmons has played well this year, the Kings still owe him $16 million over the next three seasons. Stevenson—who is two years younger, plays better defense, and had three years as an NBA starter at 24 years old—opted out of year two of his deal and resigned with the Wizards last summer for four years $15 million. In the end the Wizards paid $9 million less for a guy that they even got to test drive from $1 million.

Additionally, the emergence of Kevin Martin makes this move even more difficult to swallow. With Martin and Artest in place, Salmons becomes a $5-6 million a year backup with similar skills to Francisco Garcia, who's still on his rookie contract for $1-3 million over the next two years.

While this deal is not as awful as I first imagined, given Salmons team-first attitude, versatility, decent handle, and improving shot (50 percent FG this year for a 44 percent career guy), I think Stevenson would have been the better choice given the defensive direction and the contract he ended up with in Washington.

Step 13: Fired Eric Musselman and hired Reggie Theus (Summer 2007)

Taking a chance on Reggie Theus has been a very good decision thus far. While the jury is still out on whether he will be able to have success in the long run, this team is much more crisp and more disciplined than DUI Eric's team ever hoped to be last year.

Step 14: Draft Spencer Hawes (Summer 2007)

Given the Kings' worst offseason in recent memory and the incompetence of their coach, it was not a huge surprise that a team that mustered 44 wins in 2005-06 could not make the playoffs in 2006-07. The benefit of that failure of course was a couple of balls in the hopper for the Oden-Durant sweepstakes.

That didn't quite work like I'd hoped, but the Kings did have the 10th pick in what was supposed to be "one of the deepest drafts in recent memory." From my perspective, Hawes showed in college that he understands the game extremely well and is an excellent high-post passer. In that respect one can hope that his career follows a Brad Miller-type trajectory.

But was he the best pick for the Kings? Wouldn't the Kings have benefited from the athleticism of Sean Williams or, given the need for a backup point guard (pre-Beno), a player like Acie Law? This one's not going to be clear for another couple of years, so Geoff gets the benefit of the doubt for filling a need in the middle with a guy with a good feel for the game.

Step 15: Sign Mikki Moore (Summer 2007)

I have to agree with ESPN's John Hollinger on this one. Signing a 32-year-old late-bloomer to a three-year deal worth $18 million seems like a stretch. Sure he shot 60 percent last year off of feeds from Kidd and thanks to double teams on Vinsanity and RJ, but it was the first time Moore had averaged more than 20 MPG for a season in nine seasons.

Now, thanks to the incompetence of Abdur-Rahim and Thomas, he's the Kings' starting PF and is averaging measly 8 PPG, 6 RPG and 0.6 BPG in 28 MPG. That is mediocre.

And how about this tiny morsel or mediocrity: Moore is leading the league in fouls (despite playing only 28 minutes) and averages 5.3 fouls per 36 minutes for his career. He's an absolute hacker!

Now, this isn't an article about the Kings' future, but they have to do something about the PF spot. If Shelden Williams (step 17) is the future answer, I don't know.

Aside from figuring out Artest's future and resigning Udrih, getting a decent PF or trading away the crappy ones we have for someone else's crappy contract has to be a top priority this summer. Between Shareef, Thomas, Moore, and Williams, the Kings are paying $22 million this year to fill the PF spot (that is often filled by Artest or Garcia) and are committed to at least that amount over the next two seasons (aside for Williams' player option in 2009-10). Sickening.

Can someone really argue that keeping Webber to the end of his deal (this year) wouldn't have been better than paying this three-headed (now four-headed) PF over $60 million until 2010? Ugh.

You know the really sad thing? I would prefer to toss a Mikki Moore signing into the "not important enough for this article" pile with Ronnie Price, Maurice Evans, Tony Massenberg, and the like, but Mikki has started 54 freaking games this year! BOO!

Step 16: Signed Beno Udrih (November 2007)

Thank you Gregg Popovich and Kevin McHale! Given the years of ignoring the fact that they didn't have a backup PG, the Kings found themselves between a rock and a hard place when Mike Bibby's broken thumb meant he would be out for a couple months to start the season.

Petrie plucked Udrih out of the sky and stuck him in the starting lineup, where he has been quite solid, though not spectacular. However, when you consider the ridiculous amount of money being paid to terrible PFs, a starting PG for less than $1 million is quite a bargain. Especially one who is putting up 12 PPG, 4 APG vs 2 TO, shooting 44 percent FG and 40 percent 3FG, and gave Petrie the freedom to get rid of Bibby as he inevitably begins to fall apart.

Signing Udrih for next season has to be a priority, though they may want to wait until the draft to find out if a Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, or Eric Gordon falls into their laps before spending too much money on a guy who's better off as a solid backup. Regardless, if they can get him at a reasonable price, signing Beno is good business.

Step 17: Traded Mike Bibby to Atlanta for Shelden Williams and expiring contracts (February 2008)

Finally, ladies and gentlemen, we have arrived out our destination. The final piece to this dysfunctional puzzle was ridding the Kings of the long-term commitment to the (less controversial) face of the franchise. Bibby was the torch-bearer from the Kings' glory years of 01-03 (though Brad Miller put in some semi-finals work in 04).

I've argued over and over that Bibby didn't deserve the money he was resigned for in August 2002, when the Maloofs opened their wallets to the tune of $80 million over seven seasons. The fact that Bibby didn't opt out of his deal last year was proof that the Maloofs had seriously overpaid for their middle-of-the-pack PG.

When they signed that check in 2002, they were signing a player who had averaged 14 PPG and 5 APG and played defense like Steve Nash, Jason Williams, or (insert name of famous Spanish bull-fighter here). Essentially what they were paying for was the clutch performance Bibby put on in the playoffs in 2002, when he scored more than 20 PPG.

Another very important factor was the Maloofs' feeling that they owed it to the supportive fans of Sacramento to keep the 2002 team in tact for one more run at the Lakers.

Bibby did raise his game when he became the go-to guy, peaking at 21 PPG in '05-'06, but this came at the expense of efficiency as his shooting began to suffer from the increased attention he received without Peja and Webber attracting so much attention.

The point is, Mike Bibby is a very nice third or fourth option as a shooting PG in a half-court set, which means that he should do well in Atlanta with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith attracting most of the attention and drawing Bibby's defender with penetration. A true PG does just the opposite. Look at the Mavericks or Suns. It is the PG that draws to defense to set up the shooters. Bibby is not that type of PG.

As for the Kings' booty from the trade, it is measured not in PPG, but in $$$. Ironically, a team that was without a decent backup PG for so long now has three: Udrih, Anthony Johnson, and Tyronn Lue. To demonstrate, in Wednesday's Kings-Hawks head to head, the four former Hawks amounted to 13 minutes, two points and zero rebounds, while Bibby had 24 points and 12 assists in 37 minutes.

Is Williams the future of the PF position? His early returns say maybe. In (six games and) 40 minutes in a Kings uniform he's scored 25 points and pulled down 11 rebounds on 53 percent shooting. Promising if you ignore the fact that his revenge game in Atlanta ended in three minutes of nothing what-so-ever—a three "trillion" in the business.

Conclusion

How does Petrie grade with his current roster? Well, there seems to be a lot of mid-level exception type talent, but compared to the roster in the glory days, the hodge podge of players on this version is completely mismatched.

Petrie has built the core of this roster with good drafting (Martin, Garcia, Hawes), understandable deals (Miller), and successful risk taking (Artest), and plugged the other gaps with injury-induced pick ups (Udrih), salary dump trades (Williams, Thomas), poor drafting (Douby), and poor free-agent signings (Abdur-Rahim, Salmons, Moore).

When you build a roster in that fashion, there is a good chance your experiment will fail.

To Petrie's credit, this team has played well considering. They began the season without Bibby or Artest and have had injuries to Martin, Hawes, Bibby, and Artest. Despite all of that they are 17-10 at home and would be a playoff team in the Easern conference (against whom they are 15-12).

The problem is that they are in the Western conference where 10 teams above .500, so no matter how you look at it, the Kings are the 11th best team in a ridiculously good conference.

Isn't it better for their future that they don't take this dysfunctional team to a first-round playoff loss and hope a PF like Michael Beasley or PG like Derrick Rose falls to them in the draft and fills their most glaring holes with hope?

The final score for Petrie:

Positive steps: 1, 3, 6, 9, 13, 14, 16

Sideways steps: 4, 12, 17

Mis-steps: 2, 5,7 (for not resigning Bonzi), 8, 10, 11, 15

What do you know! He graded out at .500...Just like his team since the Bibby trade.

Fall from Royalty, Part Two: The Decline of the Sacramento Kings

Sean Cotten — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 10:02:35 -0500

By the 2000-2001 season, Geoff Petrie had assembled a championship quality team from the ground up and turned water into wine in the Sacramento Valley.

For the next four seasons, the Kings played in the Western Conference semi-finals or finals and won at least 55 games a year.

What has King Geoff done lately? How has the 2002-2003 team, which returned 11 players, evolved into the current roster following the Bibby deal? In this three-part article, I will go through the major deals, ignoring the Rodney Bufords and Ronny Prices of the world.

Part one described five key moves throughout the 2005 deadline deal of Chris Webber. Now on to part two...

Step 6: Draft Francisco Garcia (Summer 2005)

Following the Webber deal, the Kings went 16-12 the rest of the '04-'05 season but got blown away 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs by Ray Allen and the third-seeded Sonics. The loss marked the end of a four-year streak of reaching the semi finals and was a signal that things needed to change.

The Kings' 50-win season left them with the 23rd pick in the draft.

In a draft with a surprising number of solid late-first and second-round players—Monta Ellis, David Lee, Rony Turiaf, Andray Blatche, Jason Maxiell, Lou Williams, Linas Kleiza, Ryan Gomes, Luther Head—Garcia has taken his time in impacting his team's success.

Garcia wasn't a terrible 23rd overall pick because he can flat out shoot and has a pretty decent all-around game. But man, wouldn't a guy like Ellis have been a nice change of pace for Bibby (especially considering Step 7 below)?

Petrie could have done better in the draft, but aside from Ellis and Lee it's not that obvious, so you have to give him some credit for finding decent value.

Step 7: Trade Bobby Jackson for Bonzi Wells (August 2005)

Given the years of beating, Petrie believed that it was time to sell high on BoJax, plus with Mobley leaving town, there was no one to start at the two.

However, the fact that the Kings only had Bonzi for one season because his agent blew the opportunity for him to sign with the Kings was a huge fiasco.

I am on record as calling Bonzi a poor-man's Charles Barkley. He brought attitude, rebounding (8 RPG, tied for team lead with Brad Miller), scoring (14 PPG), and a high FG percentage because of his ability to post up every SG in the league (46% FG).

The positives of Bonzi's year in Sacramento:

Bonzi's injuries in '05-'06 allowed Kevin Martin to start 41 games.
His playoff performance against the Spurs (23-12-61 FG%-63 3FG%) put the Kings a Brent Barry three in Game Two from putting the first-ranked Spurs in a 3-1 game hole. How the Kings could not resign him after that effort and...
His contribution to the run the Kings made with Artest (see more in Step 9), the Kings were 19-26 when he returned from injury a few days after Artest arrived and were 25-12 with Wells and Artest in the lineup.

As for Jackson? He hasn't shot over 40 percent since he left Sacramento. A steep fall for a guy who shot over 43 percent in each of his five years as a King.

Again, Petrie seems to have timed another player's demise.

Then Petrie offered Bonzi a reasonable extension to which Bonzi's agent said no. Bonzi fired his agent for making incompetent decisions and for the fact that it cost him an opportunity to stay with the Kings.

So, in the end, it's not Petrie's fault that Bonzi didn't stick around to battle guys for the last two years.

Edge: Petrie.

Step 8: Sign Shareef Abdur-Rahim (August 2005)

A botched knee exam during the summer of 2005 cost the Blazers and Nets a deal that would have paid SAR $39 million for six seasons. At the time he was 28, had career averages of 20 and eight and seemed like a huge bargain for the Kings at the mid-level exception for five seasons.

Well, given that the Nets wouldn't take him in exchange for a trade exception, one has to wonder. But SAR played well in '05-'06 before starting a steep decline that has him buried on Reggie Theus' bench alongside his one-time rival Kenny Thomas.

With $12.8 million to pay over the next two years and SAR "earning" $5.8 million this year while shooting 21percent (!!) from the field, this deal looks awful in hindsight.

While the Maloofs pay out $13 million to Thomas and SAR, Theus gives most of his PF time to career journeyman Mikki Moore or goes with SFs Artest and Garcia in small-ball lineups.

Step 9: Trade Peja Stojakovic for Ron Artest (January 2006)

With the once-mighty Kings holding onto an 18-24 record, Petrie and the Maloofs made a controversial deal to get Ron Artest from the Pacers. Despite receiving huge criticism for dealing for the focus of "the Brawl" and a guy who seemed as interested in selling records as playing his trademark lock-down defense, this deal has been positive for the Kings.

Peja has moved on from Indiana for $12 million per, while Artest continues to do everything right (on the court at least). Now, let's admit that Artest is not the greatest person in the world, but the guy is a "Tru Warier" on the basketball court.

Artest's arrival (coupled with the return of Bonzi) led the Kings to a 26-14 record in the second half of '05-'06 and got them to the playoffs.

Artest started every game that season and played 40 minutes. If he had played at all during the first half of the season for the Pacers and somehow erased the Palace memories, Artest would have been considered an MVP candidate for the absolute transformation he orchestrated that season.

As a King, Artest has played 39 MPG in 148 games and posted 19 PPG, 6 RPG, 4 APG, 2.1 SPG, 43% FG, and 34% 3FG%.

As a Pacer and Hornet, Peja has played 35 MPG in 102 games and posted 18 PPG, 5 RPG, 1 APG, 0.7 SPG, 45% FG , and 44% 3FG%.

Is there even a question of who has made out better? Well, how about this—Artest has made $22 million since '05-'06. Peja has made $30 million and the Hornets are on the hook for $42 million after this season!

Here's another tidbit many have forgotten about Ron Ron.

Artest was an All-Star, defensive player of the year, and third team All-NBA player in '03-'04.

That means that he was among the 11-15 best players in the NBA as a 24-year old—he was BAD! Then the Palace happened and he will be on discount from here on out.

The Kings would be crazy to deal him as I've said a couple times over the last wee k and year.

If Artest stays with the Kings long-term, this deal is the best that Petrie has pulled off since Bibby for Williams. Even if Artest leaves, this deal leaves absolutely no blemishes on Petrie's record.

Look for the third installment later this week.

Fall from Royalty, Part One: The decline of the Sacramento Kings, 2003-05

Sean Cotten — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 08:31:23 -0500

By the 2000-1 season, Geoff Petrie had assembled a championship quality team from the ground up and turned water into wine in the Sacramento Valley.

For the next four seasons, the Kings played in the Western Conference semi-finals or finals and won at least 55 games a year.

Chris Webber, Vlade Divac, Doug Christie, Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson, Mike Bibby, Hedo Turkoglu, Scot Pollard, Gerald Wallace, Lawrence Funderburke, and Jabari Smith all played on at least three of those four successful teams.

That core of 11 players—with key one-year contributions from Jason Williams, Jon Barry and Brad Miller during that span—made for entertaining and successful basketball.

That success put Geoff Petrie's ability to build a successful team on a league-wide pedestal. He had pulled in Webber for an aging Mitch Richmond, drafted unheralded studs like Peja, Jason Williams, Wallace, and Hedo, rolled the dice on aging vets like Christie and Divac and—despite Sacramento's love for White Chocolate—pulled off a heist in parlaying Williams into Bibby. The last move pushed an entertaining and successful team to the brink of a championship.

However, despite the development of the roster, the Kings lost game-seven matchups in three consecutive years. First, the free-throw debacle in Game Seven of the "Big Shot Rob" series with the Lakers in 2002, the Webber injury against the Mavs in 2003 and KG's one shining moment in 2004.

So. What has King Geoff done lately? How has the 2002-3 team, which returned 11 players, evolved into the current roster following the Bibby deal? In this three-part article, I will go through the major deals, ignoring the Rodney Bufords and Ronny Prices of the world.

For part one we'll go through the 2005 deadline deal of Chris Webber. Here we go...

Step 1: Turkoglu for Miller (summer 2003)

After winning 59 games and dealing with the idea of a difficult off-season surgery for his superstar, the summer of 2003 was a time to reconsider the team's direction. They had swung with all their might for two straight seasons and hadn't reached their goal, plus Divac wasn't getting any younger and was a liability against Shaq and the Lakers.

In July 2003, the Kings unloaded injured fan-favorite Pollard and a promising Turkoglu for Brad Miller in a three-way trade. A move seen as an admission that Divac was almost through and that Webber was going to miss significant time.

While the Kings have to be pleased with Miller, Turkoglu is showing in Orlando that he is the real deal and was on the bubble for an All-Star spot this season. Given that Miller has outperformed Hedo over most of the last 5 seasons, I'd have to say this deal shows that Petrie still had his mojo.

Step 2: Leaving Gerald Wallace in the Bobcat expansion draft (summer 2004)

The first real chink in Petrie's armor may not have been his own choice. Each team could protect only eight players in that draft, meaning that at least one of the King's core would be gone.

However, given what happened only months later (traded Webber, traded Christie), why on earth would the Kings have left Wallace and not left Webber, Christie, even Darius Songalia, for the Bobcats! Hadn't anyone watched the kid play for the Kings. He was the most athletic player Sacramento has ever had and though he couldn't get much playing time behind Peja and Hedo, how do you let a 22-year old with that kind of tenacity unprotected. Boo, Geoff. Boo.

Step 3: Draft Kevin Martin (summer 2004)

After leaving their only athletic wing man unprotected, the Kings drafted two in the 2004 draft. However, considering the Kings had the 26th pick, getting the skinny Martin has to be considered extremely successful. He is clearly the best player taken in that draft after Josh Smith was taken at 17 and Al Jefferson at 15. He'd be a top-10 pick if the draft was held tomorrow. Kudos for Petrie, though I would still rather have Wallace.

Step 4: Christie for Cuttino Mobley (Jan 2005)

Petrie showed some skill in sending Christie (and his wife) to Orlando for Steve Francis' best friend, Mobley. This deal is not a major trade in the history of the franchise, but Mobley proved to be much better than Christie and came off the books at the end of the season to go to the Clippers. Given Christie's physical (and personal) decline since then, give Petrie a point for ridding Kings fans of that hideous FT ritual for his wife.

Step 5: Webber for Corliss and Kenny Thomas (Feb 2005)

Well, this is where the Kings really changed their tune. Up to now Petrie had more or less held it together. Miller for Vlade, Mobley for Christie, but then WHAM!—he shipped off Webber and Kings fans up and down the valley (and in Stockholm, Sweden) went into mourning.

Was this a bad deal for the Kings? I would say yes, but it's not really that clear cut. Without this deal the Kings are paying $20m a year for a guy who's complaining about the soul food in Sacramento, but they would have at least enjoyed Webber's renaissance in 2005-6, when he went for 20 and 10. They would have also held onto a local Del Campo High kid named Matt Barnes who may or may not have found himself for the Kings like he has for Nellie in Golden State. However, Petrie had watched Webber enough in practice to know that the knee wasn't right and that the returns were going to be iffy.

I think Petrie took the only offer he could get for Webber and that monster deal, knowing that the last two years of that deal would be ugly. Now he's got a terrible contract on the books for Thomas, but $7m is easier to move than $20m.

All in all, I am guessing that Webber would have loved playing with Artest in 2005-6 and managed to stay healthy enough to play out the contract 50 games a year and that the Kings would have been a win or two better with a gimpy Webber than with what the received from Philly, depending on how often CWebb suited up.

Looking at the numbers for Webber vs Williamson and Thomas for the 2.5 years after the trade (we'll ignore this year for everyone's sake):

Williamson + Thomas

2004-5, 24/26g, 52mpg, 23ppg, 12rpg, $11.5m

2005-6, 37/82g, 38mpg, 12ppg, 10rpg, $12.5m

2006-7, 68/62g, 43mpg, 14ppg, 9rpg, $13.7m

Webber

2004-5, 21g, 33mpg, 16ppg, 8rpg, $17.5m

2005-6, 75g, 38mpg, 20ppg, 10rpg, $19.1m

2006-7, 61g, 30mpg, 11ppg, 7rpg, $18.2m

All this tells me is that getting rid of Webber in this deal was sort of a statistical wash.

In the end the deal has saved the Kings some cash at the expense of the face of the franchise that they are have yet to replace. How does Petrie score? How about charging him a point for sacrificing the soul of the franchise and another for the fact that Kenny Thomas still has $16.5m on his deal after this season.

Well, now I, like you the reader, am getting tired of this article, so I promise to post the more treacherous steps in a new article later this week. So keep an eye out for my article about the Kings' thug deals that replaced the smiles of Vlade, Webber and Peja with street attitude, in the form of Bonzi Wells and Ron Artest.

What Next for the Sacramento Kings?

Sean Cotten — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 03:23:43 -0500

After months spinning ideas through ESPN's Trade Machine, my latest idea showed up on the news wires yesterday: "Mike Bibby to the Hawks for leftovers and a Cherry Coke".

Nice! Someone out there is sitting on the other side of the internet, jotting down my thoughts and forwarding them to Geoff Petrie when they make the most sense (or cents, depending on your perspective).

I'm not kidding when I say that the exact trade (as well as a version that included Josh Childress instead of Shelden Williams) was in my Trade Machine as recently as last Thursday. While others have been considering the Cavs and Heat, I have been considering cap space and a team with a real need for a point guard.

As much as I loved the daggers Bibby gave the Lakers in the 2002 playoffs, his contract was extremely unjustified. It was the Maloof's last-ditch effort to hold together a team that was reaching the end of its useful life. First they gave Webber max money (which the 76ers are still paying), then it was Bibby's turn and they felt obligated to outbid themselves for his services when Bobby Jackson would have been 90 percent of the player for half the price. Sorry, I digress.

Now that Bibby is in the ATL, I wonder what Geoff Petrie can do for an encore. Rather than hoping for the Trade Machine fairy to pass along my note, I thought I'd use the Bleacher Report grand opening to toss out some (reasonable) suggestions.

First, the assumption is that Ron Artest should be the next man out of town. I beg to differ. I have been arguing for the Kings to keep Artest since the rumors starting flying last season. Now, with Artest's player option at the end of the year, good business becomes an additional argument for keeping Artest.

Let's get over Artest's history already. While Stephen Jackson is getting MVP credit and Nate Robinson is on every GM's wish list, Artest remains the guy no one will touch. I am convinced that his history will keep his price tag way under his value, which is quite rare considering the money we've seen thrown at Rashard Lewis and others without half the iron that Artest has in his tool box.

Here are the Kings' general options with Artest:

Keep Artest and he opts out. If Artest opts out of his contract at the end of the year, he frees over $8 million in cap space. Based on the Bibby deal, it's cap space that Petrie's after at this point.
Keep Artest and he opts in. If he takes the one-year player option, you have a top-tier 27-year old player on an $8 million expiring contract next season. Not to mention 20 points and 38 minutes of lock-down defense each night at the SF position and back-stage passes to the TruWarier concerts.
Deal Artest alone. If you deal Artest by himself, the best you can hope for is an expiring deal and a first-rounder. But anyone willing to risk that trade (Denver or San Antonio) is going to give you a draft pick in the mid- to late-20s. Those types of picks rarely have an impact and cost you $2 million a year for at least two years.
Deal Artest and bad contracts. A fourth option includes ridding the Kings of Kenny Thomas awful contract. However, this likely means taking on a player another team doesn't want. Plus, it's unlikely the Kings get expiring (or even reasonable) contracts to cover the $15 million these two "earn".

I would prefer option 2 (without the passes), then 4, 1 and 3 in that order. In other words, shipping Ron Ron without a side of garbage contract is not a good idea on the court or the bottom line.

The King's second movable player, whom they would be willing to part with, is Brad Miller. He of the new found penchant for rebounding (11 per game in 2008).

The Miami Heat don't have a legitimate center left on their roster. Would they be interested in a Jason Williams and Daequan Cook for Brad Miller deal?
How about the Raptors, they need some rebounding and interior passing help for Chris Bosh. A deal for Rasho Nesterovich and Darrick Martin's expiring deals plus Jamario Moon works out. Of course if the Raps want to part with Jose Calderon, I'm all for that too!
Finally, if the Spurs are considering Ron Artest, can't Petrie coerce them into a deal that looks much better to their fan base? For example, wouldn't a deal for Brent Barry and Fracisco Elson's expiring deals, plus their first rounder for Miller be a perfect reaction to the Lakers and Suns deals? Wouldn't Popovich love to have an unbalanced trade of his own in the wake of his Gasol outburst?

Ok. Now I've said it to the masses. The Kings as I know (or sort of know given the current roster) and love need to pick a side of the fence. Rebuilding right now seems better than playing playoff roulette with the Suns, Spurs, Jazz, Mavs, Lakers, Hornets, Nuggets, Warriors and Rockets... wait, you mean one of those teams isn't making the playoffs?

Yeah, like I said. Time to move to the sidelines and rebuild full bore.

Shaquille O'Neal to the Phoenix Suns? It Would Work

Sean Cotten — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 00:01:50 -0500

This is all still a rumor—despite insiders claiming Shaq's having a physical in Arizona—but it is an intriguing story.

With so many reasons to criticize the deal—age differences, the "if it ain't broke don't fix it" argument, the contract, Shaq's hip, and more—I thought it would be interesting to consider the positives.

And there are plenty.

I think the biggest positive that this deal brings to Phoenix is Shaq himself. The man is an icon, no matter what part of the career curve he is on.

Assuming that Marion picks up his player option for next season, the deal costs Phoenix $10 million more than the Banks/Marion combo over the next two seasons. Having Shaq on the roster must increase the Suns' bottom line $10 million.

Doesn't it also increase the other things like franchise value, brand, etc?

Sure it does.

Second, the media is criticizing the Suns for putting themselves in financial handcuffs. I don't see it that way.

I'll be willing to bet that if Shaq doesn't retire before the '09/'10 season, teams will be climbing all over themselves to take on that expiring contract because D. Wade, LeBron, Bosh, and Melo all hit the open market summer 2010 (assuming they all ditch their player options for '10/'11). Perhaps the Suns keep the contract which comes off the books the same time as Nash's current deal and make a run at the next generation themselves with that handful of cash.

Next, let's think about Marion's option for a little bit. Marion has a player option for next season at $17 million, which he'd be crazy to leave on the table, right?

Well, if he has been hinting with Suns management that he would rather score 30 for a loser than run with a team that's been on the fringe for a couple of years, who's to say he doesn't just leave?

That move would save the Suns $17 million. But, because they will still be over the salary cap, they will be forced to replace Marion with a mid-level exception player. If Marion wants to stick it to the Suns, that's the best way for him to do it.

On the basketball court, this deal has received mixed reviews. Marion's minutes will be taken by Shaq, Grant Hill, and Boris Diaw. Diaw seems to have regained some of his mojo from when he played in Stoudamire's spot while he recovered from microfracture surgery. Grant Hill can flat-out play and does some things that Marion doesn't.

The move changes the dynamic of the team and the offense for sure, but I am confident that Steve Nash can make this work.

Finally, Shaq adds to the urgency factor. Nash and Hill need to win now or next year. Shaq does too. Marion and Stoudamire are young and don't seem to realize that the opportunity to play for a contender should be considered a blessing.

All in all, this deal doesn't seem like such a debacle for the Suns after all.

NBA Preview 2005-2006

Sean Cotten — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 01:58:12 -0500

My first NBA preview... written to a group of friends in November 2005... even before I had a blog... from here on out it's new material for the site...

Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 02:14:14 +0100 Ok, I'm not a top 5 guy, so I'll do my best to distribute knowledge for Hutch's benefit...I can't believe I'm going to waste my time writing this, but I'm pitiful. Waddell, just click on that button that says delete.

Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics - The last time the Celtics had a guy with hops like Green, he died of a cocaine overdose before the season started. Young team with Paul Pierce as its leadership sounds like a ship that's sinking.
New Jersey Nets - Vince Carter playing basketball like he enjoys it means big things. Would be much better with Shareef, Marc Jackson isn't the answer in the middle.
New York Knicks - The team that once seemed doomed now rests its future on a 5-foot backup PG and the heart, literally and figuratively, of Eddy Curry and Jerome James... ok, they're still doomed. Why is there so much optimism in New York?
Philadelphia 76ers - Webber and AI combine for 67 points, 16 boards and 14 assists and they lose to the Bucks? Uh, sounds like an early vacation.
Toronto Raptors - Do they play NBA basketball in Canada? The Raps lost to the Euro league champions (without their MVP, the guard for the Pacers)...sounds like a high draft pick.

Central Division
Chicago Bulls - A young team that made the playoffs as a five seed by coming out of nowhere seems to signal good things. When your PG is as reliable as Kurt Heinrich, it means really good things, with or without Eddy Curry.
Cleveland Cavaliers - LeBron with a Larry Hughes playing second fiddle, a resigned Z and essentially a team that should have made the playoffs the last two years without nearly the talent level... sounds like a top 4 team.
Detroit Pistons - One title and another NBA finals appearance... add some Darko, shake and serve... see you in June, or late at least late in May.
Indiana Pacers - The best team in the East... if they can keep the muzzle on Artest and S.Jackson. Apparently Danny Granger is the truth and I know Jasikevicious is the truth... expect them to be in the Eastern Conference finals.
Milwaukee Bucks - I'm sorry, I don't know how to react when a small market team gets the 1 pick, signs a respectable free agent, keeps a superstar and gets the gift of a back from the dead point guard in TJ Ford. Given the quality below the top 4, this team is in the playoffs.

Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks - Joe Johnson better be REALLY good... because his team sucks. He wanted a chance to play the point, but the fact that this team didn't already have one should have led him to look elsewhere. His teamates will fill the old Grinnell stat sheet with "Blown Assists" and he will get the Ricky Williams (salvaged the future) treatment by the AS break.
Charlotte Bobcats - Give them time, Omeka can play, Gerald Wallace can play and they have one year left on the three year plan. My guess is they end up like the Hawks and have cap money that nobody wants.
Miami Heat - I love White Chocolate... for the highlights. They took a sure Eastern Conference finalist and added volatility... I prefer the Pistons technique, if the cars got high performance, no need for an overhaul...could be trouble if Policeman Shaq doesn't whip some ass.
Orlando Magic - Grant Hill plays 70 games and they are a playoff team... if not, well wash, rinse and repeat... lottery. Dwight Howard may put up ridiculous numbers... like 20 - 17 some day.
Washington Wizards- Larry Hughes didn't get the respect he deserved, the Wiz will fall a little, but expect them in the playoffs because Caron Butler and Antonio Daniels can ball as well.

Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks - Somehow the Mavs just stick around, not going to win any titles, not in jeopardy of missing the playoffs... But they do have Mrs. Christie this year, which should make things interesting when he doesn't get any run behind Daniels and Howard.
Houston Rockets - Apparently Stromile Swift is the answer, but my question is who rebounds for this team? Yao can't be bothered and to my knowledge Stromile would prefer to get out in the fast break lanes. Could be a disappointment, but they make the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies - See you guys in the lottery. Damon Stoudamire, Eddie Jones and Bobby Jackson do not make teams playoffs contenders anymore.
OKC / New Orleans Hornets - Waxed my Kings last night on the back of PJ Brown... Doomsday scenario... I say they're 1/20th of the way to their season win total.
San Antonio Spurs - Finals bound. Getting Finley was simply unfair.

Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets - Still looking for a decent shooting guard... how about Earl Boykins? He kills teams. If Kenyon Martin wakes up to the Mountain time zone, they could be as good as they were at the end of last year. I suspect they are 3 to 6 seed.
Minnesota Timberwolves - I'm sorry KG, but unless you put up 30-18-8-2-2 each night, your team is not going to the playoffs.
Portland Trail Blazers - Supposedly young and exciting, that gets you to the playoffs in the East, not in the West.
Seattle SuperSonics - Wild card. They lose a mediocre center and a backup point guard, doesn't sound like much, but I thought they would win 30 games last year and they haven't improved. Ray Allen will have to pull some shit out of his hat to get this team back to the playoffs.
Utah Jazz - AK47 for a whole season makes the Jazz a fringe playoff team.

Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors - If Baron stays healthy they have a shot of shooting up the playoff charts because he makes J Rich and the gang better. If he doesn't they struggle. What the hell were they thinking giving Dunleavey 9 mill a year?
Los Angeles Clippers - A line up with Cuttino Mobley and Sam Cassell plus Brand and Maggette sounds pretty solid actually... this team could fight for an 8 seed if they can figure out a way to satisfy all of their 20 point scorers.
Los Angeles Lakers - I saw a highlight the other day and the Lakeshow appears to be moving the fuck out of the ball. If they can run the triangle and get 15-10 from Kwame they make the playoffs as a 6 seed.
Phoenix Suns - Steve Nash will carry the scoring load without Amare and Raja Bell and the gang will make up for JJ and Q's departure. But if Nash has this team anywhere near where they were last year when they get Amare back around the AS break, he has just taken the title of the NBA's Brett Favre...it simply doesn't matter who he's throwing it to...the results are always positive.
Sacramento Kings - Aaah, the team everyone wants to write off. Arguably the league's best starting five has a bench with certified role players. All signs point to them getting a 2-4 seed in the West.

Predictions
MVP - LeBron. If the Heat square things away, Shaq. If the Suns float without Amare, Nash. Dark horses are Barron Davis, Ray Allen and Gilbert Arenas

Finals - Spurs vs Suns (with Amare) and Pacers vs Pistons
NBA finals - Pacers over Spurs

NBA Preview 2006-2007

Sean Cotten — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 01:55:29 -0500

Posted on my blog October 2006... adding my last few NBA previews to fill out the articles...

Last season's success made me cocky so I'll give it another try this year... that usually leads to disaster, but who's paying attention anyway?

Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics - You have a solid PG, give up the #7 pick for Telfair and draft Rondo in the 20s? This feels like one of those teams that has decent players at every position, but only Pierce (29 and 19!! in the opener) stands out. Could the combination of West, Telfair or Rondo, Perkins or Jefferson and Wally or Green get AI in Beantown?
New Jersey Nets - Note to self: TiVo anytime the Nets play the Suns... Vinsanity and Jefferson will be swinging from the rafters, but without a solid inside presence they have simply no chance in the playoffs. Regular season their top-shelf, in the playoffs their boxed wine.
New York Knicks - The Yankee thing hasn't worked in Madison Square Garden, but give him this Isaiah has depth. How bad is a lineup with Francis and Marbury penetrating and kicking to Q (31 & 9 in the opener) and Frye with T-eddy Bear Curry in the paint? In the Atlantic they might compete. With names like Jeffries, Crawford and Lee coming off the bench, I think Isaiah keeps his job this year. If he doesn't the Bulls get their pick again so they might have to boost their 07-08 payroll... oh wait.
Philadelphia 76ers - Recipe for doom: add two fragile aging superstars following career years where they played 70+ games, make no moves, hope to improve on 35 wins. I think AI ends up in Boston when the 76ers have 15 wins at the AS break.
Toronto Raptors - I like the initiative. You're in a crappy division, make a move. But not THAT move! Big for small is usually not good, young, promising big for injury-risk small sounds worse. I'll give the Raps a do-over... trade down in the draft, get Marcus Williams and keep Charlie Villanueva and get a little something in return.

Central Division
Chicago Bulls - Ben Wallace gets to prove if he's a difference maker and while the 42-point drubbing of the former champs is positive, getting clobbered by Dwight Howard is less positive. The Bulls are right there, but are they even the fourth best team in this division? In the end Sefolosha will get more rookie of the year interest than Tyrus Thomas.
Cleveland Cavaliers - King James will improve (gulp), Larry Hughes is healthy and Donyell Marshall got the memo... he's a PF. With Bron-Bron's ability to win games in the fourth quarter the other guys just have to keep it close and this gang most certainly can. Eastern confernce finalists? Yeah, by default.
Detroit Pistons - Time for the Pistons to start their decent. The focus is on losing Big Ben, but the big problem will be the NBA crackdown on screaming at the refs. Call it losing 1 and a half Wallaces. Sure he could change, but we all know Rasheed won't bend for "the man". How far does a team that flirted with 70 wins fall in one year? To 3rd or 4th in the Central.
Indiana Pacers - Gave these guys the finals last year so I'm a bit gun shy. But this team got better for a couple reasons: Granger hasn't made his move, Saras will be much better, Harrington will rebound where Peja wouldn't and Marquis Daniels will play 30 minutes a night. O'Neal plays more 60-70 games and is healthy for the playoffs and the Pacers are the surprise in the East.
Milwaukee Bucks - Villanueva makes this team better and takes some of the load off Michael Redd. Patterson can lock down most wings. There's just something fishy about this team. All of their starters seem second tier, even Redd meaning their bench is a tier below that. One of the Central teams has to make room for the Magic and well, this team seems most likely.

Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks - Shelden Williams? Really? Looks and smells like Corliss Williamson to me. Couldn't trade down to say 10 or so just to add a draft pick to the argument of "we could have had so and so"? This team is in legal handcuffs off the court and plays like its in fuzzy porn handcuffs on it. Speedy Claxton is a nice pickup for a team that drafted Chris Paul or Deron Williams last year...oh, wait.
Charlotte Bobcats - Emeka's back... is still hurting. Don't get me wrong the ambition level is still not so high in Charlotte, but with the two PG set, Gerald Wallace flying all over the place (the Kings should have NEVER let this guy into the expansion draft) and big bodies up front they have something to work with. Jordan's phone must ring off the hook for teams interested in Brevin Knight, why not hand Felton the keys and get a young asset? Adam Morrisson? I don't know, I just don't. Has anyone compared him to Reggie Miller yet? He's certainly no Bird. If the Cats run him around like Reggie Miller we might have a Rip Hamilton type in a year or two.
Miami Heat - Last year they shook things up, this year they played bridge and bingo in the offseason. The only reason this team is back in the playoffs is Dewayne Wade. Shaq won't be interested until mid-March and GP and Zo may have lost their edge, so D-Wade will probably put up LeBron-ish numbers this year... 30-6-6.
Orlando Magic - Is there anything you are good enough at that if you only did it once in a while you'd still be one of the best? Grant Hill is that guy. When he's on the court he is still tremendous. I heard a lot about the Darko resurgence only to see him come off the bench and play half of Tony Battie's minutes in the opener against the Bulls. This team doesn't need Darko, this team needs a healthy Grant Hill and a steady helping of Hedo, Jameer and the super freak. Dwight Howard vs. Amare pre-knee injury... I'd take Dwight Howard. This team is a playoff team and if the Heat have it on cruise control, they could win this division.
Washington Wizards - Gil's got high altitude air in his house, that's going to have half the impact of the USA embarrassment this offseason...he's gonna go Gilarenas on the NBA. Wait, he did that last year didn't he... there is a limit to Gil's revenge. The rest of the team is no better than last year. A minimum signing of Stevenson (only 1/5 the price and 2/5 of the length of John Salmons' deal) otherwise this is exactly the same crew as last year. Expect the same result, 1 week of playoff exposure and out.

Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks - Andrea Bargnani owes Dirk half his paycheck (for that matter so does Darko and Skitta (it's ok Skita, Dirk takes Euroleague checks too)). Dirk and Nash should have shared the MVP (and perhaps a bowlo and a hacky-sack circle). But they should've won the championship, you know, while they were there and all. They now sit in the unenviable position of having to get back to the finals when it's not even likely they get out of the second round in the West. Tough opener against the Spurs is just a sign of things to come.
Houston Rockets - This team is simple... they are so reliant on Yao and McGrady that they could win or lose 60 games. Everyone's praised the Battier-Gay swap (teehee) but it'd be a bit better if they weren't planning to play him at the four! Bonzi will do his thing once he's healthy and regardless of his rep is one of the league's most flexible players... boards, points, defense... he's a poor man's Charles Barkley really. So, what happens... how about they get 45 wins and wreak havoc in the playoffs because a healthy McGrady can defend Duncan, Dirk or Marion... and carry 30-6-6... while Yao is getting very close to cracking the league's elite. West version of the Pacers.
Memphis Grizzlies - There's something about Pao... he looks ridiculous and runs like a girl, but man, he was the best player in the World Championships and carried a mediocre team to the 7th seed last year. Is Pao one of those guys you just roll out and automatically make the playoffs with? Without him there's way too much burden on Mike Miller, Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick but if those guys can get some confidence and hold the fort at about .400 until Pao is back they will be fighting to the end. Unlike Amare, once Pao's on the floor he's good to go, he's already slow, has no hops, etc, so there will be less of a recovery period. I still think they miss the playoffs because other teams got better.
OKC / New Orleans Hornets - Speaking of better. Peja 3:16 (my old favorite player) will be filling it up in the Bayou (or OKC) on feeds from Chris Paul. This team is going to scap for the final playoff spot in the West because they have guys like Chandler, West, Mason and Bobby Jackson who aren't afraid to play hard and can defer to the young superstar Paul has become. If they do make the playoffs look for Peja to revert to his part-time schedule.
San Antonio Spurs - Unlike the Pistons, this team's not nearly done. While Duncan is fully capable of carrying the load, Parker and Manu are willing and able to shoulder their fair share. Even so, Tim Duncan and his four oldest relatives could probably still win 20 games in the league. It'd be even more boring, if that's possible. Should be interesting to see what lineups they go with because aside from T.D. and Big Shot Rob, they're horribly thin up front. If they get anything from Nazr's replacements, they'll be holding the trophy in June... sorry David Stern.

Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets - They needed a gunner to help out Carmelo... JR Smith is nothing if he's not a gunner. They got Nene back, meaning that they can breathe a bit easier about trotting Camby and Martin out each night. If Melo takes the steps to be a leader for this team and pushes himself on the defensive end, the Nuggets will make the playoffs for more than just winning their division.
Minnesota Timberwolves - Coming back to my comment about Pao Gasol... why doesn't KG's team make the playoffs each year? There are any number of superstars throughout the years that have carried bad teams to the playoffs - Barkley, Nique, Jordan, David Robinson - why not KG? With that said, the T'wolves still suck and drafted a PG only to sign another PG to go with Marko Jaric, who's been horrible. This team can start booking late April in the Bahamas.
Portland Trail Blazers - Zebo and Roy, how much worse are they than Webber and AI, Yao and McGrady or Duncan and Parker? Oh, that much? Well, at least they'll be the kings of the Pacific Northwest...
Seattle SuperSonics - ... because this team is hopeless. Can someone please send Ray Allen a lifeline? Rashard Lewis is clearly gone and the trading deadline, all the hope surrounding Robert Swift went up in ACL smoke and Chris Wilcox seems a little less angry after getting $25 mill. Ray Ray is too good a player to be stuck on this sinker, or to have to be the OKC poster boy next year.
Utah Jazz - AK47, Carlos Boozer (24 & 19 in the opener!), Mehmet Okur and Deron Williams should be on a playoff team, Derek Fisher, Matt Harpring, Jason Collins and Rafael Araujo should not. They'll upset a few teams and stick around until April, but one injury to the front four sends this team into the Greg Oden sweepstakes.

Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors - Nellie's always been a mad scientist... unless Nellie has the cure for Baron Davis' back problems and Mike Dunleavey's Danny-Ferry-itis this team may be drafting another project center next year... but this time with NBA talent.
Los Angeles Clippers - Added two volatile pieces and lost Maggette for most of the year and poof... playoffs? Sam I Am may be the ugliest player in the league singe Gheorge Muresan and Terry Tyler, but the guy can flat out ball and make his teams better. What he's never been able to do is mentor young guys and Shaun Livingston could use some of that mojo. When can we take Elton Brand off the list of "good players on bad team" and add him to "league elite"? I say make it back to the second round this year and we'll talk.
Los Angeles Lakers - The Lakeshow... a King fan's favorite nemisis. 2-0 without Kobe? Now's the time to cut the ties! Not happening. Kobe will come back, average in the mid-30s and everyone else will stand by and watch one of the game's best players drag them into a battle for 7th or 8th place again.
Phoenix Suns - Three years ago people praised Mark Cuban for finally sitting on his wallet while the Suns overpaid an aging Steve Nash...cheap bastard! Can Amare come back? They won nearly 60 games without him last year and may get worse with him struggling to get it back. Chris Webber Washington/Sacramento never went back to being Chris Webber Michigan but changed his game to be a great player on weak knees. Can Amare do the same?
Sacramento Kings - The worst off season in Sacramento since the Kings picked up J.Will, Vlade and C.Webb in the same summer. John Salmons ends up getting paid more than Bonzi, who actually wanted to stay put. Then they draft a Bobby Jackson/Tony Delk type in Douby and pick up Loren Woods and Maurice Taylor. As much as this pains me to say it, the competition in the West is simply too good for this Kings team this year. The worst part about it is that once this team falls back to mid-90s win totals, they won't get free agents and the wheels will fall off. At that moment the Maloofs will move them to Palms Arena... the future home of the Las Vegas Blings.

Predictions
MVP - Nothing bold here as last year's crew will all be there again - LeBron, Nash, Brand, Wade and Dirk. The only new names will be the duo in Houston. I think if the Cavs win more games than last year LeBron will get his due for making his team better (even if it's simply a matter of his teammates playing better than last year). Dark horses... how about Grant Hill if he manages 70 games of 20-8-5 and the Magic get a 5 seed in the east. Ron Artest if the Kings get better than a 6 seed and Jermaine O'Neal if he plays 70 and the Pacers challenge for the Central Division.
Rookie of the Year - Roy by default, no one else will be given the keys like he will.
Comeback player - Grant Hill. Or how about Wally World?
Most improved - Sarunas Jasikovicious, Pacers. Saras has multiple European championships, can fill it up and can lead a team from the point. Another option is Hakim Warrick.

Best chance at Greg Oden - Charlotte, Warriors, Seattle and Portland. Watch out if Seattle gets it and decides to make a point NOT to draft another young center. The odd thing is that aside from the Cats, these other teams drafter centers this year... not good planning. If the Cats get Oden they can trot out Felton, Morrison, Wallace, Okafor and Oden just in time for the Pistons Nets, and Heat to implode.

Playoffs -
East: Cavs, Pacers, Heat, Nets, Bulls, Pistons, Magic, Wizards in that order
West: Spurs, Mavs, Suns, Nuggets, Clippers, Rockets, Lakers/Hornets/Kings (Geoff Petrie owes us one this year)

Finals - LeBron-Wade 1 ends with LeBron's supporting cast outhustling a sluggish Heat supporting cast. Spurs hold off the Mavs to return to the finals.

NBA finals - As much as it pains me to say this, one more ring for Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu and Bron Bron will have to wait his turn.

NBA Preview 2007-2008

Sean Cotten — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 01:49:33 -0500

Sorry for the preview in February, I posted this on my own blog in October and I'm trying to add some articles to my profile...

Back for season 3 of the preview. Admittedly I have thought a lot more about it this year, which probably means that this version will be my worst. I've done alright the last two years though.
Last year's big successes: picked the Cavs-Spurs final and the Spurs champions
Last year's failures: missed the Jazz and Raptor trains entirely. I missed big on the Warriors and Pacers too, but had I known about the midseason trade of Done-leavy to Indiana I might have predicted failure there as well.
Now on to 07-08...

Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics - KG, the Truth and RayRay in Boston sounds like better days for Beantown. Aside from SG, SF, PF they are thin as ice but, kind of like the Sox, if they get to the playoffs healthy that 3-man rotation is about as good as it gets in this division. And while none have recent playoff experience, each has put on an incredible playoff show or two in their careers, so expect them to step up when it matters again.
New Jersey Nets - Speaking of big 3, this version just hasn't been able to get healthy and play together and their joyride nearly reached an end last season at the trade deadline. With the return of Kristic, a healthy RJ and a warmer body in the middle in Magloire, this team could be in the top half of the East and give teams fits come playoff time.
New York Knicks - Not one, but two big bears down low this time around. I expect that ZBo and Curry will actually be able to work together this year and with Lee changing the pace off the bench they should be tough because they're strong exactly where the Nets, Celts and Bulls are weak. They may have problems with the pace of Western teams, but in the East they can creep to 40 wins with that front line... you also have to like the addition by subtraction of Stevie Franchise, if only someone would rid them of Marbury.
Philadelphia 76ers - Let's face it, the only time you will hear about this team is on SportsCenter... AI2 and Thaddeus Young will be all over the airwaves. I suspect someone will be in need of a PG and offer them a deal they can't refuse for Andre Miller's services and they'll prolong the rebuilding another year or two.
Toronto Raptors - Surprise! A very solid season North of the Border may lead to high expectations in a division where every NBA team (ie, not the Sixers) got much better. They were young last year though and should be able to battle back to the playoffs, but the burden of expectations can be tough.
Central Division
Chicago Bulls - Basically the same team as last year will trot out for the Bulls this year (PJ Brown = J.Smith + Noah). So why does everyone expect a championship this time out? Sure Deng has developed, but there are some stronger SFs in the East (Bron, Pierce, Jefferson) that will outshine him come playoff time. If the Kobe for Deng, Gordon, Noah and Thomas trade actually happens, I can't imagine how a Heinrich, Kobe, Nocioni, J.Smith, Wallace starting five is so much better than the team they already have, plus they destroy their depth.
Cleveland Cavaliers - Ok, so we've established that they've got no momentum this year. But they still have a solid 4 with Z, Gooden, Bron and Hughes. And should we be getting all that worked up about a guy who reminds me of Scot Pollard? Could the Cavs be interested in Howard or Webber? If LeBron plays anything like he did with team USA this summer and if the Pistons mental block is finally gone, Cleveland will be right there again in June.
Detroit Pistons - No news is good news for Detroit, but I think they underestimate how much Webber in the post helped their offense and I suspect they'll eventually ask him to be their Roger Clemens. Book their rooms for the second round of the playoffs again and pencil them in as losers in the Eastern finals for the third year in a row.
Indiana Pacers - Watch for falling squads. Their reaction to an absolute collapse last spring... Kareem Rush. Are you kidding me? Jermaine O'Neal will be this year's X-factor, like KG or Pau would have been last year. Larry should learn from his old pals in Minnesota and Boston, you have to pick a direction at some point.
Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks have spent a fortune on keeping a fringe playoff team together for the foreseeable future... not the direction I'd go as a GM, but hey. They are still pretty young and add Yi and Bobby Simmons making them among the deepest teams in the East. They should challenge for a second round playoff spot once the Nets and Heat prove to be too old, ie not this year.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks - It's finally time. If the Hawks stay healthy and can ride the J.Smoothe-J.Johnson tandem for 82 games, the birds might see some airtime in May... June, not so much, but May's not out of the question. Horford and Acie will help, but it's the development of the Williamses that will get this team over the hump.
Charlotte Bobcats - Just when I thought this team could scrap into the playoffs they lose all of their depth. I expected Morrison would become a decent player this year without the overrated rookie bullseye... maybe next year he'll have completely left the radar and blow up. I really liked the J.Rich deal because he's still young and unlike A.M., you are certain he can score in the NBA. Without May and A.M. I don't think they're deep enough to get to the playoffs, but they're certainly not an embarrassment.
Miami Heat - Can someone explain to me what this franchise is doing? They have arguably the league's best player, the remains of its former best player, two packs of cigarettes and a cherry coke. Accepting the charity of the TWolves gives them a legit scorer and a useful center for all the games Shaq and Zo will miss, but it doesn't (AT ALL) make this team competitive against Cleveland, Boston, Chicago or Detroit. Could it be that the Heat want to combine Ricky Bucket's expiring contract with J.Will's to make a big splash? With a focused Shaq and Wade they'll win a series in the playoffs as a 6-7 seed, but then they'll be exposed.
Orlando Magic - I love Dwight Howard, all 12.5 feet of hops and extension and I think that Rashard Lewis will get some consideration for the All-Star game with all the buckets he's going to score, but I don't think this team is ready to join the best in the East just yet and could be leapfrogged by the Bucks and Hawks.
Washington Wizards - Kind of the forgotten team this year in the East. Compare Gil-Caron-Jamison to Kidd-Carter-Jefferson and tell me who comes out ahead... almost a stalemate in my book. However, Gil's not entirely healthy and is expected to leave DC next summer and Jamison is this season's best expiring contract. A sluggish start could start a sale on Hibachis in DC in February, however a hot start could have them salvaging the future to make sure Arenas knows they mean business.

Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks - Can't forget the Mavs this year. Sure, they have their kryptonite in Oakland, but by my count this team was 67-9 against everyone else after the 0-4 start. If they can avoid Nellie this team could be #1 seed in the West again. However, in the West, it's all about the playoffs and are you better than Phoenix, SA, Houston, Utah and/or Denver. I just don't think the Mavs are better than each of those teams in a 7-game series, so I suspect a second-round loss.
Houston Rockets - For all of their offseason efforts, this team is still an injury to McGrady or Yao from mediocrity in this conference. With all their cogs, including Bonzi, Scola and the other additions, this team will be a battle every night and especially in a 7-game series. How good were they last year? They should have beaten Utah in the first round and the Jazz only lost to the Spurs. With Rick Adelman (the most underrated coach there is) the sensitive egos will be managed and the team will a nightmare playoff matchup.
Memphis Grizzlies - Last year was a hiccup in the Pau Gasol playoff machine. I think with him healthy and not asking for trades they make it back into the mix this year. Plus, if Darko shows have the aggression he wanted to show those refs' daughters and mothers he's got to improve and take some of the defensive and board burden off of Pau.
New Orleans Hornets - This team rolled the dice on Peja two years ago and I'm afraid will suffer from that risk again this season. They have some nice pieces, but they're far from the 6 elite teams in this conference, meaning that they'll be in a battle with the Lakers and Griz for the final spots again this year.
San Antonio Spurs - Repeat champions? Not so fast, how about third in Southwest division. They have shown a tendency to back off after winning championships and don't have a Michael Finley first timer to play for this time around. I expect them to battle to the end, but to finally lose out to the Suns or Rockets if they run into them in the playoffs.

Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets - The jury's still out on how good the AI-Melo duo can be, but this team has a lot of other things going for it if Martin, Nene and Camby can ever stay healthy together. Injuries and general lack of interest for 82 games will probably cost them the Northwest, but matchup nightmares are all over the floor and only the Suns and Spurs can stop them in a 7-game playoff matchup. AI has a player option next year that he should commit to as soon as possible to avoid any distractions.
Minnesota Timberwolves - I don't usually comment on NBDL teams, but I'll make an exception for this team because they actually have some pieces and should continue to make some deals and/or tax writeoffs with Howard (already gone), Jaric and Walker before they poison the young bucks. If they can stroll out a starting 5 of Foye, McCants, Brewer, Jefferson and some center they get early in the next two lotteries, they'll be pretty good in 2010.
Portland Trail Blazers - The ghost of Sam Bowie has raised it's head again in Rip City, but this time around the injured player is 18 years old, having a surgery that seems to be getting better and better, has an actual will to win and sense of responsibility to the franchise. Aldridge will have to be a Bosh-type for them to win 25 games this year, but on the bright side the expectations on the team are gone and they will have two outstanding rookies next season. OJ Mayo anyone?
Seattle SuperSonics - I love what Seattle has done with the place. If only my Kings are so fortunate when they finally throw out the trash. Durant fell into their laps and avoiding the age gap presented by RayRay was a nice move. Green should be a Grant Hill type SF who can do it all. They also have a guy in Thomas who can guard Duncan on an expiring deal that could prove very valuable to teams with Finals aspirations. Figure that they get a late first rounder for that to go with a lottery pick in 08 and they'll have a very solid foundation when they move the rodeo to OK.
Utah Jazz - Big time miss here last year. However, now I'm smarter and apparently Carlos Boozer is worth all the ink he got when he left the Cavs hanging a few years ago. This team is right there at the top, but somewhat less threatening to the Spurs. If the Jazz can get AK47 on the same page and get him back to the 15-8-4-2-3 monster (he was only 8(!)-5(!)-3-1-2 last year) he used to be they should outpace the Nuggets in the Northwest.

Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors - They had a nice run, then they traded away J.Rich, essentially throwing in the towel on this go-around. I think Mullin realizes that this group, while entertaining in a pole-dance kind of way, is not marriage material. Baron can, and probably will, walk this summer and land in LaLa land if he's not already playing there in February. Once he's gone you're left with the Pacers East - Steven Jackson, Harrington and Croshere - and a couple nice pieces in Ellis and Biedrins, but this is the Western Conference ladies and gentlemen. They'd have been better off without last year's ray of hope and a chance to get Kevin Durant into that system...
Los Angeles Clippers - Elton Brand's injury cripples this aging team. Cat and Sam just can't hold the fort while the franchise waits for the recovery of Brand and Livingston. Worse for the Clippers is that Maggette and Brand both have player options next summer and are probably quite willing to jump off this ship.
Los Angeles Lakers - Anyone else tired of Kobe Bryant? Two years ago it was the rape charge all summer, this year it's the trade demands. Kobe saw Snow LeBron take his 11 dwarfs to the finals in the East and realizes he's two pieces from any glory in the West. If the team stays in tact expect Kobe to get them over the threshold, but to get dumped in the first round by superior teams. Rumors abound that the Lakers and Bulls could make a splash in the next couple days getting Gordon, Deng, Noah and Thomas in return. I think the Lakers would still be a fringe playoff team if that happens.
Phoenix Suns - Grant Hill is the original LeBron. A SF with great ball handling and passing skills that can create for himself and everyone else while bringing a positive attitude and leadership. He's not as athletic anymore, but look what Diaw did a couple years ago as the Nash ball handling alternative and you can see that Hill can be the difference maker for the Suns. Where the Suns get over the hump this year is an edge on urgency. Nash and Hill are both hungry, whether or not Marion wishes he was scoring 30 for the T-Wolves.
Sacramento Kings - Um... what do I say? Bibby's out for 6-10 weeks, Hawes is hurt, Artest is suspended for 7 to open the season. Look for 1-6 to start to the year and a fire sale on Bibby and Artest by December. Interesting side note... the Heat love Artest and Ricky Buckets has a comparable expiring contract.

Predictions
MVP - Let's face it, this is not a one-year award. Think of it as a college football poll. With that in mind, the preseason favorite is LeBron based on his explosion in last year's playoffs. Nash is #2 because he should have won it last year and everyone realized that when Dirk collapsed in Oakland. Duncan is probably #3 for the body-of-work award and a need to reward him for 3 in 5 years. Garnett has to be next because if he posts 18-13-5 in Beantown and they win the Atlantic they'll be building skinny statues of him all over the city. Others... how about Melo if the Nuggets crack the elite in the West, Yao if he carries the Rockets or Kidd for challenging the Celtics in the revived Atlantic.
Rookie of the Year - Durant will see little competition, but the experts will spend the season trying to find alternatives. How about Al Thorton in LA for all the chances he'll get without Brand or the UF threesome?
Comeback player - Kenyon Martin could have some appeal if he gets back to form. Otherwise, Wally World could see more shots in Seattle, Walker will score in bunches if he sticks in Minny and AK47 could get notice if the Jazz make it the Big 4 in the West.
Most improved - Gotta believe that LaMarcus Aldridge is almost a lock for this award. Other alternatives could be Marvin Williams in Atlanta, NateRob in New York and Rashard McCants in Minny.

Playoffs
East: For the first time in a long time good teams will miss the playoffs in the East... Bulls, Celtics, Pistons, Cavs, Nets, Wizards, Heat, Hawks/Bucks in that order... which means that the Magic and the Raptors don't quite get there unless the Wizards choose to blow it up.
West: Mavs, Suns, Spurs, Jazz, Nuggets, Rockets, Grizzlies/Lakers/Hornets
NBA Finals - LeBron can't muscle the Cavs back to the Eastern finals, mostly because Mike Brown just gets outcoached, which leaves the door open for the Celtics to knock off the Pistons for their third straight loss in the Eastern conference finals. The Spurs get knocked off in the second round, leading the way for the Suns and Nuggets to play in the most entertaining Western conference finals of all time.
In the end, the Suns finally get to the finals and are able to exploit the weaknesses of the Celtics the way the Eastern teams couldn't in an NBA finals David Stern can take to the bank...