Bleacher Report - Articles by Evan Brunell

Projecting the Playoffs, The Case for Kotchman

Evan Brunell — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:10:54 -0400

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Projecting the Playoffs

With just 20 games remaining in the regular season, the Sox' Hunt for Red October is getting stronger by the day. At this juncture, with this team, a 4 ½ game lead in the Wild Card is a considerable advantage. Don't get cozy though, as one hot or cold stretch can completely change the complexion of this race. Still, it's looking pretty good for the Sox, as Baseball Prospectus gives the Red Sox a 92% chance of winning the Wild Card (though they are quoted as having just a 1.5 % chance of winning the AL East).

But this is by no means a set race. Remember, baseball history is littered with cautionary tales of teams who were content to just sit on their lead. Lest we forget, and become drunk by our own success, there's the 1978 Red Sox, the 1986 Red Sox, the 2003 Red Sox, even the 2004 Yankees. Sometimes we all need to be humbled. (If you like horror stories, check out this article by Nate Silver on late season collapses. A word to the wise: light sleepers, don't even bother reading about the 1995 Angels. You'll be up all night.)

Now that you've been scared straighter than an adolescent in juvey, take solace in the fact that the Sox have a pretty favorable schedule ahead of them. Their remaining six series include trips to Baltimore and Kansas City, as well as a set at home against Toronto and Cleveland to close out the year.

The other two sets will be much more difficult, however.

This week's home stand against the Angels will have a lot to say about the Wild Card race, and could be Texas' last chance to climb out of their hole. Texas needs an L.A. sweep, which, though unlikely, is always a possibility.

And the Sox also have one more series against the boys in Pinstripes. Should the previous two sets against New York be any indicator, things will be very ugly. Hopefully, the race will be long over before the team's field trip to the Bronx from the 25th to the 27th.

Texas has a similar schedule, with two series against contenders (2 v. Los Angeles) and four against regular season flops (Oakland twice, Seattle once, and one versus the suddenly vintage Tampa Bay). Boston has the easier shake, but, if you're reading this site, you're probably OK with that.

From a fan's standpoint, it's too bad that Texas doesn't face Boston at any point in the remainder of the season. It would have been guaranteed to provide huge fireworks as the season winds down. Instead, baseball fans across the country will have to be content with reading lonely box scores as they follow the playoff race.

The Most Unappreciated Red Sock

In the 2008 ALCS, facing little brother the Tampa Bay Rays, the Sox squandered back-to-back World Series dreams when their 7-9 hitters batted 0 for 1000. Only the anti-heroics of one Rays right fielder Gabe Gross were enough to keep the Sox in the series at all (Gross was hitless on the series, and misplayed J.D. Drew's Game 5 line drive into the game-winning hit.)

I think Theo learned his lesson from last season: never underestimate the value of backups.

While this is a new season, and with it brings new challenges, lineup depth will not be one of them.

Why?

...because Casey Kotchman mans first base.

Now, "Casey Kotchman" isn't the most awe-inspiring name: he is a below-average first baseman with the stick and he doesn't hit a whole lot better than a middle infield regular. But he does provide the Red Sox with some serious depth and flexibility in the infield.

Now that the Patriot's season has started, it seems poignant to invoke a Sox-Pats comparison about team depth. Bill Belichick, the genius strategist that he is, has always made sure to have plenty of versatility at every position, making every roster spot a valuable, indispensable asset. Mike Vrabel was a goal-line tight end. Dan Klecko, a defensive tackle from Temple, ran plays at fullback on occasion. Troy Brown played... cornerback?

The Sox have Victor Martinez, a second catcher who can HIT well enough to man first base, and Kevin Youkilis, an MVP caliber player proficient at both corners of the infield. Maybe one day Casey Kelly can DH for... himself.

So, back to the Case for Kotchman. It's time to stop thinking of him as the team's 3rd option at first base.

When the playoffs arrive (again, should the Sox make it), Victor Martinez should no longer be splitting time between first and catcher. Sure, V-Mart's plate defense is poor, but so is Varitek's, and there is one key difference: Martinez can hit.

Whether or not Martinez's knees are creaking after so many years behind the plate, Tito should play him at catcher more than his fair share during the post season. He has to. Martinez is the far superior backstop at this point, and the playoffs are when all past player-manager loyalties will be thrown out the window. And Martinez will be PUSHED... leaving Kotchman as the primary 1st base backup.

Should some unfortunate injury befall Mike Lowell, which will further accentuate the fact that he needs days off, Casey Kotchman should become the team's primary first baseman, allowing V-Mart to stay behind the plate. Kotchman at first is not an ideal scenario, by any means, but what could be worse than starting Mark Kotsay like in the 2008 ALCS? Let's recap:

2008 ALCS (sans Lowell) 7-9 Spots

7. C Jason Varitek
8. SS Jed Lowrie
9. 1B Mark Kotsay

The '09 Replacements (sans Lowell)

C Victor Martinez
SS Alex Gonzalez / Jed Lowrie
1B Casey Kotchman

That's not even close. Just comparing the first name on each list completely unbalances the equation.

But there's more. Without Kotchman, the team would be seriously handicapped at catcher as well. Should Lowell go down under these rules, the team would be forced to play Martinez at first, while throwing Varitek back into starting duty at catcher; not to mention the fact that either Dusty Brown or George Kottaras would be required to catch for Wakefield.

In the event of injury, the tradeoff essentially boils down to Kotchman for Lowell, instead of Varitek for Lowell.

Take your pick: Varitek: .217/.322/.409 or Kotchman: .269/.342/.390. OPS or not, I'll take Kotchman every time.

Casey at the Bat

Yes, Virginia, there are better hitters than Casey Kotchman.

With a groundball swing and a contact-oriented approach, Kotchman does not hit many homeruns, especially for a first sacker with a 6-3, 215 lb frame. Though he has a career 9.0 HR/FB rate, he has never been much of a home run threat thanks to all the ground balls he hits. Kotchman is a different breed of first baseman... or a hark back to the Dead-Ball Era where entire teams hit fewer than 10 home runs per year - whichever you prefer.

Instead of trying to club home runs, (Un)Mighty Casey helps to make up for his lack of power by being exceptionally hard to strikeout, with a career 9.8 percent K rate. Batters who put the ball in play as much as Kotchman usually hit for much higher averages, as his career .269 average seems very low for his skill set. His below average .284 career batting average on balls in play is the primary culprit for his low batting averages. However, with just 1829 career plate appearances, there is time to improve, and the low BAs could still be the exception, not the rule.

Kotchman's upside for future years is tied to improving his BABIP and adding some upward plane to his stroke. Though Casey's power output is closer to that of a third-world country without electricity, his baseball strength is not all that bad. Should he ever start hitting more fly balls (he has a career 52.7% groundball percentage against just 29.8% fly balls), he could have a 20-HR season in him.

Teams have long been intrigued by Mighty Casey because of his mix of contact, size, and latent pop in his bat. A player with any latent power potential and a penchant for putting the ball in play is a valuable commodity.

Some have posited that if Kotchman were to hit more fly balls, he would have more power and be a better player. Sure, the home runs would be nice, but a steeper swing gradient would mean more swings and misses and more strikeouts - negating that contact attribute that teams have fallen in love with. It's a delicate balance.

Still, the 2008 and 2009 versions of Kotchman seem to be out of step with his skill set. Call it a hunch, but I see him as more of the player he was in 2007, when he hit .296/.372/.467 with 11 HRs, 53 BBs, and just 43 Ks in 508 PAs. The only difference between 2009 and 2007 are a slight change in BB and K rate (likely due to random fluctuation, not a change in underlying skill) and a BABIP 20 points higher in '07. Other than that, he's the same player. Not a bad guy to have on your bench or to play in a pinch.

Considerable upside? No, but upside none the less.

...and there's still more to like. Kotchman is just 26, with plenty of room to improve and just over 3 years of MLB service time. Does he have a future with the Sox? Sounds like some great off-season water-cooler chatter.

Maybe he'll get the chance to prove himself in the next few weeks.

Oh yeah, chalk that one up as a YES on the Theo-Meter.

Red Sox's Road Record Cautions Playoff Success

Evan Brunell — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 09:10:00 -0400

With Sunday's extension of the Wild Card lead to four games on the back of a doubleheader sweep (Jon Lester is the beast of all beasts), Boston's entrance into the playoffs as the Wild Card winner is all but assured. And at seven games behind New York, it still ain't over!

But there's a problem.

Don't get me wrong, making the playoffs is great and I'd pick that over missing the playoffs. But the Red Sox don't seem as well-equipped to advance far in the playoffs as many would like to think.

A couple days ago, I buoyed some of your spirits by talking about how dominant the Red Sox bullpen is. Coupled with a shorter rotation, the Red Sox are primed to mean business in October.

But allow me to drop anchor just a bit. The Red Sox have the majors' best home record at 50-21. Just behind the Sox are the Yankees at 50-22, and no other team comes close.

What's the downside? The Sox are below .500 on the road at 34-37. They would join Detroit as the only two teams below .500 on the road if the playoffs began today. Other teams in the hunt for a spot, such as Texas, San Francisco, Atlanta and Florida do not have this conundrum.

Side tidbit: Tampa is 43-26 at home, 29-45 on the road.

As the Wild Card winner (fingers crossed), that number doesn't look so presentable given the Wild Card is the de facto road team in the playoffs (except for the World Series, if they make it that far, thanks to the All-Star Game).

This means we would have to do battle with the Angels on their turf and win on their turf. We'd have to do battle with, and win, on Detroit's turf. What's that? Oh, okay. I guess I should mention the possibility of doing battle on Yankee turf too.

When the Red Sox suffered through their rough stretch from mid-July to August, they lost 13 of 18 (thank you for three wins, Baltimore) on the road. Toss Baltimore out, and the Sox lost 13 of 15. That is not pretty at all. They lost against Texas, Toronto, Tampa Bay and New York.

You could look at it one of two ways:

1) The Sox are completely screwed. They don't know how to win under pressure on the road.

2) The Sox endured a rough stretch, where they were losing left and right regardless, and this is a different team.

If you subscribe to the latter notion, that 34-37 record shouldn't scare you.

The Sox are a completely different team with an emerging Clay Buchholz, a Boston-loving Alex Gonzalez and firebreathing and ballin' Billy Wagner slamming doors shut. This is not the same team that racked up those road records.

Still, I get nervous. So how about we make up those seven games and go in the playoffs as division champions instead? Works for me.

Tazawa Slated for Tuesday Start

Evan Brunell — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 14:33:29 -0400

Evan: Please welcome Mike Silver to the Fire Brand writing crew! Tim Daloisio is going to be stepping down from writing articles for Fire Brand. He will still be contributing one podcast a week plus the weekly poll -- and will add in another podcast every week.

Boston's management has decided it's time for Junichi Tazawa to throw his hat into the ring as savior of the Red Sox starting rotation.

While no one wants to go into preseason depth, AGAIN, this is just another in a set of signs that the team is running short on bullets. Let's recap: Beckett and Lester are incredible. Wakefield and Daisuke are on the DL. Penny has doubters. Smoltz was designated for assignment. Buchholz is inconsistent. Masterson was recently dealt.

That leaves Bowden, last of the preseason Big Nine, and Tazawa, the (very) occasionally mentioned tenth option. In April, a Tazawa appearance looked like either a pipedream or apocalyptic nightmare, depending on which side of the Mass-NY border you called your home.

I'm cautiously optimistic. He has thus far avoided the command problems that have taxed Japanese imports, sporting a 2.39 BB/9 in double-A paired with an 8.08 K/9 and 2.57 ERA (3.35 FIP ERA). However, he has only thrown 110 innings this side of the Pacific.

Still, he possesses excellent talent, a good fastball and splitter, and now, the opportunity to show it off.

If the Sox can get a reliable number five starter out of Tazawa, chalk it up as a victory. They don't need an ace, they need an innings eater. If he's anything more, its just icing on the cake.

Boston Red Sox 6.5 Behind Yankees: Defending Theo's Offseason

Evan Brunell — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 01:00:00 -0400

The Red Sox are where they are. Six and a half games out of first place, with the division seemingly wrapped up, at least according to the statheads. And I include myself in that group.

No, I haven't given up completely. Not on the division—even though it's a longshot now. But I do know where the Red Sox stand, and that is atop the Wild Card standings.

Sure, they aren't playing well, and sure, good teams are beating them. But it could be much, much worse, you know, like actually being out of the playoffs if they started today.

One can point to one move, or non-move, that is the reason the Red Sox are so far out of the division. And that is the Yankees acquisition, via free agency, of Mark Teixeira. Had the Red Sox, rather than the Yankees, signed him, it could very well have made up the difference. Maybe the two teams are tied right now, rather than six-plus games apart. Tex is currently raking at a clip of .284/.382/.557 and he's stellar with the glove as always. His WAR (wins over a replacement player) is 3.6.

Basically, adding Tex would have given the Red Sox one of the best corner infielders in the game.

But we didn't add Tex. Instead, we decided upon saving tons of money—especially some probable dead money at the back end of Tex's contract. The organization felt it was best to put their stock in the players on the farm like Lars Anderson, rather than expensive veterans like Tex.

So the Yankees ended up with Teixeira and it looks really good in the short term.

But what about in 2011? How will it look then? What if Anderson is a 3-4 WAR player at a small fraction of the price? The short term can be deceiving, my friends.

Of course, there is always the other side of the spectrum. What if Anderson never pans out? What if he ends up a 1 WAR player, defensively challenged, and lacking power? Then the Tex inking will be emphasized even more than it is now.

However, I like to approach talented players like Anderson with optimism.

Since Tex was a "non-move," then it is only fair to address the Red Sox actual moves. None of the Big Leaguers they brought in have done much, but I agree with the signings, even the failures, or sub-par performances, they have brought with them.

John Smoltz was recently designated for assignment. The experiment failed, but the main part of this was that Smoltz was signed to a one-year deal. The money lost kind of stinks, but at least it was only for one year.

If the experiment fails—as it did—then simply move on. Throw another arm into the rotation. Smoltz was signed as depth, became a piece, then became expendable, based on poor performance. He is gone. Move on. At least he won't suck up a roster spot or potentially available funds down the road.

Taking a chance on the future Hall of Famer was worth a shot. It simply did not go as planned.

Brad Penny, on the other hand, has at least contributed positively at times. He hasn't been good, or really even average as a whole, but at least he has been capable of appearing in the major leagues. The National League is better suited for him as he is incredibly fastball happy, and his command can be lacking at times. But as a fifth starter, well, I guess that 4.57 FIP (or Fielding Independent Pitching) could be much worse.

Just as with the Smoltz signing, I completely believed in adding Penny at the time, and still do. Penny was a solid chance worth taking.

Rocco Baldelli is another offseason acquisition made by Epstein that cannot be categorized as a failure.

Rocco Baldelli was brought in as a fourth outfielder to play all three outfield positions when needed. His "fragility" made it unclear how often he could and would play. But having him with many built in days off would only help his situation.

He's played decently enough off the bench, and although currently on the DL, he is valuable by being able to man center field, as well as the corner outfield slots. .261/.322/.441 is far from spectacular. But in only 121 plate appearances, any numbers are sort of suspect.

Again, for one year, Baldelli was well worth the chance taken. And, at only $500,000, rolling the dice on him was well worth it.

The short term—that's all many fans think in. But what the Red Sox have given themselves this season is a chance to win now (a very real chance since they are currently leading the Wild Card race), and a chance to win in the future. Imagine if Lars Anderson does become that 3-4 WAR player, and where that $22 million saved on Teixeira could elsewhere be invested. It can be used to address multiple needs, rather than one short term "luxury" (don't forget already having had Mike Lowell).

It can be used to bring in our future left fielder. It could be used to acquire a starter, a few relievers and maybe even an adequate position player.

Six and a half games behind the Yankees is no fun. Trust me, I know. I have experienced the pain in this four-game set as well as you have. But it isn't about 2009. It is about 2009 through the future.

And last time I checked, this season still looked pretty good. Thanks to Epstein's prudence, future seasons may look even better.

Fernando Cabrera tears it up with PawSox, awaits call

Evan Brunell — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 10:57:29 -0400

Will the real Fernando Cabrera please stand up?

Is it the Cabrera, who from 2006-08, posted a minor league ERA of 1.12?

Or is it the Cabrera who, during the same period, had a major league ERA of 5.92?

"I don't look at stats and I don't know what his stats were (last season) with the Orioles," said Pawtucket Red Sox pitching coach Rich Sauveur of the team's closer. "I can only go on what I've seen this year. To me, this kid can pitch in the big leagues right now.

"I'm sure his name has been thrown around (prior to the non-waiver trade deadline) by teams looking for help. The kid has done a very, very nice job for us in Pawtucket."

Once Daniel Bard was recalled by Boston, the 27-year-old Cabrera slid into the closer's role and has been nearly flawless.

Through August 7, Cabrera was 20-for-20 in save opportunities.

Overall, he was 0-3 with 20 saves, a 1.69 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 48 innings. He even earned a save in the Triple-A All-Star Game.

Cabrera, who's been in pro ball since he was 18 (he was picked by Cleveland in the 10th round of the 1989 draft), split last season between Norfolk (0-0, 0.69 ERA in 11 relief appearances) and Baltimore (2-1, 5.40 ERA in 22 relief appearances).

He signed a minor league free agent contract with Boston last December, and has been nothing short of superb for the offensively-impaired PawSox.

"It's been a tough season," understated Sauveur. "We haven't been scoring runs and he still was leading the league with 17 saves (which, as of deadline, ranked second in the I.L.). To lead the league in saves when we weren't scoring runs... it's an amazing job that he's done."

"He knows what his job is when he comes in the game no matter if it's the eighth or ninth inning. I think we're fortunate to have him here."

In Cabrera's opinion, the reasons are three-fold why he's having a career year:

He's more aggressive.

He's enjoying the game.

He's mentally tougher.

"I have more confidence in my fastball now," said Cabrera, who's been clocked in the 92-to-94 range. "I attack the hitter. In the last couple of years, I changed the way I was pitching. I went to a slider when I felt I needed to and lost my confidence with the fastball. This year, I trust my fastball more and I use it. Then, I go with the other pitch.

"I didn't change much mechanically but I did in terms of attacking the hitters. I went through the minors attacking the hitters, but as soon as you get to the big leagues, you change everything.

"You can't do that," continued Cabrera, "because the game's going to hurt you."

To put it another way, Cabrera has stopped "nibbling."

Cabrera also has found a comfort zone in Pawtucket which has been lacking.

"I feel really comfortable in the organization with the job I'm doing so far and the people I'm working for," he said. "That's very important. The last couple of years, I didn't have fun. Right now, I'm having fun and am enjoying what I'm doing. That's something I missed the last couple of years even when I was in the big leagues."

"I finally started having fun last year in winter ball in Puerto Rico. Then, I got here in this organization and felt the same way. I like the organization because they helped me get my confidence back. That was important for me when I made my decision."

The decision Cabrera referred to concerned an "out" clause in his contract which enabled him to become a free agent if he wasn't on Boston's roster by June 1.

Instead of opting for free agency, Cabrera opted to remain with Pawtucket.

To an extent, the Cabrera of 2009 resembles the Cabrera of 2005 when, with Buffalo, he was 6-1 with three saves and a 1.23 ERA in 30 games and with Cleveland he was 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 innings.

Given his tender age at the time, did Cabrera think the game was too easy?

"I never believed in that," he said. "Mentally, I was really strong. But I got to the point where I was thinking too much... thinking about things I couldn't control and that's what really hurt me. It didn't hurt me for one year. It hurt me for two or three years."

"Every time I had a bad outing, I didn't know how to forget that. Instead, I wanted to try harder. I wanted to strike out everybody. I wanted to show the team I was ready to pitch and that I just had a bad outing."

"By trying too hard, I forgot how to do things like getting over what happened already and that tomorrow is a new day," added Cabrera. "I didn't know how to do that and it hurt me."

From a technical standpoint, Sauveur has "tweaked" only one thing with Cabrera, whose repertoire includes a fastball (which, as Sauveur says, has "late life"), a slider and a changeup.

"We had to have him quicker to the plate," said Sauveur. "If you watch coaches from the big leagues down to A ball, you see them with stop watches. They're timing pitchers to the plate."

"When he arrived here, he was like 1.6 to almost 1.7 to the plate with a big leg kick and a long arm behind him. I told him you'll have to be quicker to the plate because Boston won't want anybody here who's not quick to the plate. That's the first thing they tell me. Make sure pitchers can hold on runners."

As a result of working on that aspect, Cabrera has reduced his time to the plate to the 1.29-to-1.39 range.

"That's very workable in the big leagues and at this level," said Sauveur. "He's holding runners on a lot better now and giving catchers an opportunity to throw them out."

The next question is, even if Cabrera continues to pitch well, how can he squeeze his way into Boston's bullpen?

Asking Cabrera is a waste of time.

"It's one thing I can't control," he said. "The only thing I can control is to come to tomorrow's game, and if we're winning, try to close the game. That's the only thing that's in my hands and the only thing I'm worried about.

"I can't think about what's happening in Boston or other things in the big leagues. That's something I learned to control. Before, I didn't know how to do that and maybe I got upset. I'm just glad this team is giving me a chance to play the game."

Is the Boston Red Sox Starting Rotation an Unaddressed Fatal Flaw?

Evan Brunell — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 10:00:00 -0400

When the 2009 season began, there was very little doubt in anyone's mind that the Red Sox had both the depth and talent in the starting rotation for it to be considered, not only the teams' primary strength, but what made them favorites to advance to the World Series from the American League.

With dueling aces at the top in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, depth in the middle with Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and Brad Penny, and a plethora of options at the end ranging from top prospect Clay Buchholz to perennial All-Star and future Hall of Famer John Smoltz, the front office had covered the rotation in spades.

That doesn't even look more deeply into the farm system or bullpen, where the likes of Justin Masterson (since dealt away), Michael Bowden, and Junichi Tazawa lurked.

Even with slow starts from the top of the rotation, conventional wisdom viewed the rotation as one of the best in baseball.

While Beckett and Lester found themselves struggling out of the gate—the pair conmbined for a 3-4 record with a 6.33 ERA in April—a shut-down bullpen and an out-of-this-world Tim Wakefield kept the Red Sox heads above water, even with Brad Penny and Daisuke Matsuzaka posting a near double-digit collective ERA.

There was a sense at the time that the staff wouldn't continue to struggle so mightily, and that the team had stayed around .500 despite the pitching was a sign of good things to come.

And come around they did.

Wakefield continued to post win after win, leading to his first All-Star selection, and the two-headed monster of Beckett and Lester hit their strides in June, where they were more dominant than they were poor in May (7-2, 1.69 ERA).

The Red Sox top three pitchers posted an incredible 11-2 June record, as the team rolled into first place with an 18-8 month. Even Brad Penny, despite a 1-2 record, was caught up in the act, posting a respectable 3.18 ERA.

As June turned to July, we all wondered if the Red Sox rotation had hit a rhythm that would dance all the way to October.

Then, the record started skipping.

Lester's been as good as any pitcher in baseball since June 1, going 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA over 80 innings in his last 12 starts. In those 80 innings, he's struck out 96 and walked only 25. Opposing batters have only mustered an OPS against of .545. He's been dominant.

Beckett's been nothing to scoff at, either. Over the same period, he's gone 9-2 with a 2.24 ERA with 73 strikeouts and 11 walks in 80 innings, with an only slightly higher OPS against of .549.

With two aces clearly dealing, why then would Theo Epstein make such aggressive moves around the trade deadline to acquire the likes of Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay?

Not to disparage the impact move that Epstein did make at the deadline in bringing along Victor Martinez without parting with one of the "untouchables" in the organization, but the moves he tried to make at the deadline are more telling about his perspective on the 2009 Red Sox than the moves that he did make.

Imagine, if you will, a press conference on Aug. 1, with Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay wearing a Red Sox cap, and Epstein at the podium in front of him.

"I thought there was a flaw on the club that we couldn't allow to become a fatal flaw, that the rotation on this team is not championship caliber," Epstein might have said. "In my mind, we were not going to win a World Series with the depth in the top of the rotation the was it was."

If it sounds like Epstein, just harken back to 2004 and replace the notion of "rotation" with "defense," as Theo described his justification for the trade of Nomar Garciaparra.

The Red Sox still have depth in their rotation after Beckett and Lester, but it is suddenly laden with much more uncertainty than we all expected at the season's onset.

Tim Wakefield has spent nearly a month on the DL with a strained back, and even with his first half of the season, could he be counted on to be this team's No. 3 horse down the stretch and to pitch Game Three of a playoff series?

Penny, while not terrible, gives you what you would expect out of a No. 5 starter on this team, not a playoff-caliber pitcher.

Smoltz could take that mantle. I think he's thrown the ball better than his numbers would indicate, and remember that he's just now getting out of what could best be described as "extended rehab" after a year off. But that's a big gamble to take when the fate of the season may hang in the balance of that position.

Buchholz has proven he's anything but capable of handling Major League Baseball. As dominant as he was in Triple-A and as he could be in Boston, he's not more than an end of the rotation piece right now. Sure, there's potential, and he could catch fire at any time, but if there was a chance to move him for another No. 1 to complete the trifecta at the top of the rotation, 2009 would have been better served.

Matsuzaka is the forgotten one. He was, coming into the season, the No. 3 starter on this team. While he has posted a 15-10 record with a 4.25 ERA and is inconsistent in many ways, the expectation for "the enigma" was that he could be counted on to step on the mound in the third game of a playoff series.

Could Matsuzaka find his way back to the Fenway mound in time to help this team out? If he does, will he be more than the shell of himself we saw early in the year?

The questions were many in front of Epstein at the deadline, but I think he proved by his attempted actions that the rotation is still an unaddressed flaw that has the potential to be fatal to the Red Sox 2009 championship goals.

Q+A with Top 3B Prospect Will Middlebrooks

Evan Brunell — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 03:30:00 -0400

Will Middlebrooks is currently ranked the 25th best prospect in the Red Sox farm system. 20 years old, Middlebrooks is currently in Mid-A Greenville, hitting for a .265/.343/.424 line. Excepting first basemen, he is the fourth best infield prospect in the system.

Will took some time out of his schedule to answer a couple questions for Fire Brand. You'll be interested in his answers...

Statistically, you had a tough introduction to pro ball last year in Lowell. You moved a level up and seem to have really improved your plate discipline as well as cranking out some more home runs. What happened? Was it simply an adjustment period, or did you specifically work on an aspect of your game that is paying off?

Last year I came into the season without a plan or an approach at the plate, mainly because in high school you don't need one. Once you reach this level, the talent of the pitchers is high enough where you have to be smarter. Pitchers throw any pitch anytime for strikes now, so I got with my hitting coach and started to develop an approach at the plate.

It was definitely a slow process... it's not something you just say you're gonna do and you do it your next at bat... its something you have to consistently work into your cage work, batting practice, then translate that in to the game situations. The last month of last year and this year it's finally starting to become a habit and results started to come from that.

What would you say is the toughest adjustment to the game you have had? (On or off the field.)

The toughest adjustment so far has been the grind of playing and practicing every day and being able to play at the highest level you can day in and day out. Some days you just have to trick yourself into thinking your legs feel good—at least for three or four hours.

What do you need to accomplish to move up to Salem? Have the Red Sox asked you to work on anything specific?

It's nothing specific they have told me to work on; just my overall game. Right now every level I go to is a learning process for me: new coaches, some new teammates. Every year I learn more and more and that also contributes to success on and off the field. So it's no rush. Of course I would love to go up, but I want to make the most out of each year and each place I play at.

Who would you say has influenced you the most so far as a professional ballplayer and why?

So far in my professional career my hitting coach in Lowell, Luis Lopez, is who has influenced me the most. He helped me with my foundation for hitting and my plan at the plate, but this year Kevin Boles, our manager in Greenville, has taught me how to be a professional.

Not only does he tell us how to act on and off the field but he demonstrates it everyday. I love playing for him, because I feel like I come away from the field every day with something to put in the back of my mind that I can always use.

Who on the Drive would you advise Sox fans to keep on an eye on and why?

Mitch Dening. Not one of the top prospects in the organization, but overall one of the best players I've ever played with. On and off the field he's a great guy, fun to play with and is going to play in the big leagues, no doubt in my mind.

You've got yourself a 14-game hitting streak [as of July 31]. You think you got a chance to catch the guy who hit in 45 straight earlier this year? :)

Haha... that's not even on my mind. Hitting streak or no hitting streak, I'm going to the plate with the same plan and approach. If i get a hit out of it, great. If not, nothing will change. I'm going to fail with my plan and succeed with my plan. The plan is the only constant there-- once the ball leaves the bat, it's out of my control.

Seriously, though, what have you been doing lately to get this hitting streak? You just came off a 3-for-4 night so it seems like you keep getting better as the season goes on. What's started to click?

Balls are just finding gaps and holes... I just keep doing my job swinging at good pitches to hit, that's all I can do.

What do you do in your off time? Read, hang out with friends, watch tv, etc. How do you unwind away from the game?

To unwind my roommates [Mitch Dening, Pete Hissey, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jared Stanley] and I just sit around watch TV, eat, talk baseball. A lot of people would probably say "Why would you talk about baseball since you do it all day?" ...Well for one thing, that's whats always on our minds, haha... and we like to evaluate each other. Hearing someone else's perspective is good for you. You can learn a lot from teammates.

Theo Epstein 'Burning Midnight Oil': MLB Trade Watch

Evan Brunell — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 15:25:00 -0400

Tom Werner says that Theo Epstein is "burning the midnight oil" for an impact trade. The article specifically mentions Roy Halladay and Victor Martinez.
Is there no middle ground for Victor Martinez? As NESN.com rounds up, the Indians reportedly rejected a Victor Martinez-Clay Buchholz swap, and a later Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden and outfield prospect package. The door isn't closed, as the Sox and Indians 'talk all the time,' says Jon Heyman.
Don't forget stud first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The Sox and other teams have called, but the Padres are refusing to listen. Even if they listen, would Padre ownership approve the deal and alienate their fan base even more? To me, it's abot putting yourself in the best position to win. How could the Padres not listen to Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Josh Reddick? Wouldn't surprise me to see Adam LaRoche thrown in the deal with the Sox paying the way.
Could a lesser deal be en route to improve the Sox's shortstop position? Sox scouts were on hand for the Pirates game yesterday. Could a deal be considered for Jack Wilson or Freddy Sanchez? How about Ian Snell, pitching his socks off in Triple—A and with the Yankees reportedly interested? Snell would add a young arm with options left.
The only team that the Phillies feel can beat their offer for Roy Halladay is the Red Sox. Gordon Edes feels the Sox could dangle Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and one of Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, Casey Kelly and Stolmy Pimentel. If the deal came down to Buchholz, Bard and Pimentel, would you do it? I would. Would J.P. Ricciardi? He says to deal Halladay in the division would require an extra player.
The Halladay talks are real, by the way. The Jays made a formal offer to the Red Sox a couple days ago. No word on if this was rejected.
One antidote to Theo's clear aversion to a 'big trade' is the fact that Sox owner John Henry is upset over the Sox's recently play and wants something done, according to Jon Heyman.

I rank the Sox's likelihood of acquiring players like this:

Roy Halladay:
Yes, really. There would be less headaches trying to fit in Halladay than another player, plus the Sox can beat any offer by Philadelphia if they say the word. If Philly continues to stick to their guns, it would be hard for the Sox to turn down a deal they know will get done.
No deal
Deal for a lesser bat/pitcher like Jack Wilson or Ian Snell:
Won't give up a ton of prospects, so is the easiest trade to arrange.
Victor Martinez:
Talks simply seem to be going nowhere. Theo is adamant not to give up Buchholz unless for a young power—hitter, and already conceded some ground by offering a one—for—one swap. Unless the Indians see potential in Masterson/Bowden/Player X, this has no legs.
Adrian Gonzalez:
The best option out there to solve our current and future needs. But the Padres would lose a local kid of Mexican heritage signed to a club—friendly deal during a time where they need a face of the franchise. We'd be talking about a huge deal here, one that's probably too big to arrange.

John Smoltz: What Should the Red Sox Do with Him?

Evan Brunell — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0400

There are several options that the Red Sox have when dealing with John Smoltz. But, when he is pitching, they seem to be giving away games. So, those options need to be explored.

But, don't panic. Smoltz is an intelligent pitcher, and although he may no longer have lights-out stuff, he still has enough in his arsenal to get hitters out if he uses his mind.

His stuff looks decent enough, but his command seems to be lacking. We can say that he will start to command his pitches in time, but how much time? How long will it take him to get his stuff together?

He is 41 now, not 35. He is coming off an injury. And he was a risk when Theo Epstein signed him—although Smoltz was a smart acquisition even if he doesn't work out.

The options the Red Sox have are as follows:

A) Simply wait it out and hope that Smoltz will regain command of all his pitches. This is definitely an option, as he hasn't exactly pitched a half season or anything.

But the Red Sox cannot afford to just give away games right now, not in the heat of a pennant race. Plus, they are competing with teams such as the Yankees and Rays—both very good if not great teams.

B) They could trade Smoltz, but they would be selling low and they will most likely little in return.

But this would allow Wakefield to slot back in the rotation. Dice-K (maybe) and Michael Bowden would be the insurance in case Wake gets hurt again or if Buchholz is ineffective. Even with the absence of Smoltz, there would be plenty of depth there, just not quite as much.

C) They could approach the veteran Smoltz and ask him to make a trip to the DL in order to work on his command.

It wouldn't be disrespectful, although I do not know how well he will take it. He is a veteran, and he probably believes he still has plenty left in that arm—even if that may not be true.

If he doesn't budge, they could simply place him on the DL anyway, with some "phantom injury" as Evan likes to call it. You have to do what is best for the team.

When watching Smoltz, and I am no scout, I see good enough stuff to get the job done. But if he is going to have trouble with command, for whatever reason, then the latter two options may make more sense.

Because, in the AL East, there just isn't room for failure right now, not successive failures by the same pitcher. There is definitely no room for an ERA north of 6.00

But Epstein and crew will make the right call, as they typically do. And I haven't rung my panic bell just yet; I am just exploring the options and trying to get ideas from others.

Michael Bowden Recovers Dominance with the Red Sox

Evan Brunell — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 09:20:00 -0400

Over his last two starts, we have seen the Michael Bowden that the Boston Red Sox have come to know and love;the Michael Bowden that earlier this season dominated International League batters and the pitcher Baseball America rated the No. 2 prospect in the organization.

And to a large extent it's because of a 13—day layoff.

In his two starts since returning to the mound, Bowden has:

Pitched five hitless, scoreless innings on July 19 against Indianapolis and received a no—decision.
Pitched seven innings of four—hit, two—run ball on July 24 against Columbus (replete with zero walks and five strikeouts) only to come out on the short end of a 3-1 score.

"In this organization with these young pitchers we always pick a time of the year to shut them down," said Pawtucket Red Sox manager Ron Johnson. "We've done this for several years.

"They like to pick a time with these young guys and I think it works great. He was probably going through his roughest time just before we gave him a break. Since he's come back, his two starts have been very good. (Minor league pitching coordinator) Ralph Truel and the other guys in the organization know what they're doing. I've seen it happen for years here and things work out."

Bowden, admittedly, benefited greatly from the rest.

"You know what...I do feel stronger," said Bowden. "But I also worked on a few things in my delivery and I'm getting a little more power out of my delivery. I'm staying over the rubber and it feels like I'm generating a little bit more on my fastball and getting a downward angle.

"Part of the reason why I'm successful is because of that angle. I kind of lost it for a while. But I'm starting to get back into my mechanics and I feel good."

Bowden's game against Columbus underscored how the time off has proven to be a positive.

Not only did he throw 55 of 80 pitches for strikes but he also allowed no more than three hard—hit balls.

One was a first—inning double by Jordan Brown and another was a solo homer by Matt LaPorta into the left-field berm in the fourth.

Brown also sliced an off—field ball that just squeezed inside the left field foul pole and dropped into the Pawtucket bullpen for a classic McCoy Stadium el—cheapo home run.

Altogether, Bowden faced only 24 batters—three over the minimum.

"Mike did a real nice job...he was impressive," said Johnson. "He was pitch efficient. We'll take that any day of the week. He definitely pitched well enough to win."

How true. But the PawSox have been in a hitting funk since July 3—losing 15 of their last 18 games and falling to the bottom in I.L. hitting.

Bowden, for his part, has managed to stuff his frustration in his locker.

"That's baseball," said Bowden. "That happens. We're in a funk and it's taking longer than we expected to get out of it. But I think all of our pitchers understand that it's baseball.

"We're out there doing our jobs. The runs are going to come. That's part of baseball and all we can do is our job."

Good point.

Red Sox Trade Lugo to Cardinals for Duncan

Evan Brunell — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 18:38:19 -0400

UPDATE: The Sox got a player to be named later too!? Wow.

The Red Sox are trading shortstop Julio Lugo to the St. Louis Cardinals for Chris Duncan, Cardinals beat reporter Bernie Miklasz is reporting.

Lugo gives the Cardinals some depth in the infield, as the team was struggling to find people to play the infield. Mark DeRosa was another recent acquisition, so Lugo will join DeRosa, Brendan Ryan, Tyler Greene, Joe Thurston and Skip Schumaker in jockeying for playing time.

It's likely the Sox are eating much of Lugo's contract (roughly $3 million due to him the rest of the year, $9 million next) because Chris Duncan, a left-fielder/first baseman, is making only $825,000 on the year.

Duncan will be arbitration eligible after the year. Duncan burst on the scene in 2002, hitting 22 home runs in 280 at-bats for a line of .293/.363/.590. The year after, he bopped 21 homers in 375 at-bats for a .259/.354/.480 line.

It was downhill from there. He saw only 222 at-bats in 2008, hitting .248/.346/.365. In 2009, he drew the ire of Cardinals fans, hitting .227/.329/.358 in 260 at-bats before being optioned to Triple-A Memphis. That tends to happen when you're 1-for-31 since June 29.

Duncan's off-year notwithstanding, he provides an immediate boost to the Sox's hopes of hitting right-handed pitching: he has a career .270/.366/.485 line against right-handers. Let's not talk about his splits against left-handers.

My guess is Duncan heads to Triple-A Pawtucket to try to turn things around and will join the BoSox in either August or certainly, September. With Mark Kotsay battling a calf injury, Duncan could step in as his replacement unless the Sox opt to have Kotsay be the long-term casualty for Adam LaRoche.

Duncan is limited to largely left-field and first base and could play off the bench for the Sox next year if he can impress in Triple-A and his Boston stint.

The Sox were losing Lugo anyways, so I'm thrilled to see the Sox parlay Lugo into a bat that could really help the Sox with their problems against right-handers.

Epstein and Gammons on LaRoche trade

Evan Brunell — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 18:02:46 -0400

Theo Epstein was on a conference call today, and Extra Bases dishes by saying the LaRoche deal had been in the works for months and was not a knee-jerk reaction to the recent offensive struggles.

LaRoche will not be activated until Friday (the Sox have an off-day tomorrow). Epstein also hopes to make more moves before the deadline:

I think we plan to be very active in discussions in talking to just about every club out there and pursuing every player that can make us better now and in the future. Certainly, there are no guarantees. Certainly, we hope to make another move between now and the deadline.

Epstein went on to mention that he would like to upgrade the position player depth and performance against right-handed pitching but would not marry himself to those statements.

Peter Gammons updated his ESPN Insider blog recently, and has this to say:

This deal has been on the table for three weeks, and after losing their fourth straight game on Tuesday and declining to trade Clay Buchholz for Victor Martinez, Theo Epstein took LaRoche.

The Red Sox will work LaRoche, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz in the first base, DH and third-base spots, with Kevin Youklis moving back and forth between first and third.

The Red Sox felt they had to move Wednesday because the Pirates had a deal to send LaRoche to another team in exchange for a better offer than Argenis Diaz and Hunter Strickland, but Boston was willing to take on his entire salary. This trade will not preclude Epstein's pursuit of an impact player such as Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez or others.

I'm not surprised Theo turned down moving Buchholz for Victor Martinez—the word is that Clay moves only for a young power-hitter. Victor doesn't qualify as young anymore. If the Indians were willing to do a trade with Michael Bowden, I think Theo would pull the trigger.

Jeff Bailey Likely To Hit Disabled List

Evan Brunell — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:46:27 -0400

Yesterday, first baseman Jeff Bailey suffered a high-ankle strain trying to make a play on Brad Penny's acrobatic flip to first base Saturday. He's likely to hit the disabled list, a loss, given that the Sox are about to face two left-handed pitchers.

How can the Red Sox replace Bailey against left-handed starters? The Boston Globe came up with an idea: Green at third, Lugo short, and Youkilis at first. Inserting Kotsay against lefties is unlikely given he's just aggravated his calf.

I've come up with a couple other scenarios. First, to maximize offensive production, put David Ortiz at first base. This would allow Rocco Baldelli to become the DH and leave J.D. Drew in the lineup. I'm far more comfortable with Ortiz and Drew in the lineup than I am with Kotsay and Lugo.

Second would be to place outfielder Jonathan Van Every on the 60-day disabled list to remove him from the 40-man roster (Van Every recently had knee surgery), and then promote a hitter from Triple-A to hit against lefties.

The problem with this is that the top two candidates to be recalled (Chris Carter, Paul McAnulty) are left-handers. For a platoon at first base, that's not helpful. The Sox could always make a waiver claim or a small trade for a warm body through the All-Star Break or simply decide to ignore the platoon issues and bring Carter/McAnulty to the bigs.

Carter (who is already on the 40-man) is hitting .262/.319/.416 in Pawtucket, so it's unlikely he gets the call. McAnulty is similarly not performing at .241/.327/.427.

If the minors aren't going to help, we're limited to the first two options above. The option of Papi at first gives the Sox the most offense, but it is highly unlikely. It seems as if we're going to be stuck watching Lugo struggle to field a ball for the next couple of days.

Anyone else have any better ideas?

Mark Wagner Shrugs off Disappointing 2008 Season

Evan Brunell — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 13:54:28 -0400

Wagner - TJ Perrini

Catcher Mark Wagner could have done a verbal tap dance and made numerous excuses for his drop-off at the plate last season with the Portland Sea Dogs.

But as he prepared to report to spring training this year in Fort Myers, the chances of that happening were slim and none, and Slim already had left for Texas.

"There was one point where I was leading the team in batting average ... I was hitting .353 early on with a decent amount of at-bats," recalled Wagner, who was promoted from the Sea Dogs to Pawtucket on Jun. 28. "It was like, 'Man, I'm hitting great. I just can roll out of bed and hit.'

"Slowly, over time, I fell a little bit but I was still hitting .330. Then, I was hitting .310. I started to notice I was spiraling (downward). It was a surprise (rude?) awakening where I kind of got away from my routine a little bit.

"That was total 100 percent blame on me," continued Wagner. "It was just a lack of mental toughness on my part where I let my routine slide. Then, all of a sudden, I tried to do too much. I tried to sprint to catch up, to get back on top. It was one of those things where you can't just all of a sudden pick up and go again."

Just how much did Wagner spiral?

His average plummeted to .219 and both his slugging percentage (.363) and on-base percentage (.304) were mediocre at best.

Those stats were a far cry from the ones Wagner racked up after he was picked in the ninth round of the 2005 draft by Boston.

In 2006, for example, he hit .301 in 96 games with Greenville. And, in 2007 at Lancaster, he hit .318 with 14 home runs and 82 RBI in 95 games.

Moreover, he developed into Boston's best defensive catching prospect according to Baseball America.

Among other things, he led all Double-A catchers with a .997 fielding percentage and ranked second in the Eastern League in throwing out 42 percent of attempted base stealers.

"Looking back on (2008), it was a heck of a learning experience for me," admitted Wagner, who was hitting .301 with 18 doubles, three home runs, 23 RBI, and a .410 on-base percentage in 42 games with Portland. "That's what I really learned last year in Portland ... how to stick with the process and how to stay within yourself and that, when you start to slump, you can't get it all back in one game.

"I felt there were times when I hit the ball quite well and didn't get the result, which is when I tried even more."

Fortunately for Wagner, the organization sent him to the Arizona Fall League. Even though he only played in 18 games for Scottsdale, his stats were a quantum improvement over the ones he posted with Portland.

Wagner hit .288 with four home runs and eight RBI.

"I had a great opportunity to go out to the Arizona Fall League where you see some of the best prospects and I did very well," he said. "I talked with some of their hitting coaches, like Dave Joppie and Victor Rodriguez. They helped me reassure myself. They would say 'You know you're a good hitter. Go out and do what you've done and you're going to be just fine.'"

"They told me to stay with the process and that people know I can hit better than this. I had a great time out there, especially after a long season in Portland. My body was a little fatigued but I still felt I did very well out there."

Ironically, despite his proficiency behind the plate (at the time of his promotion, he was leading Eastern League catchers with a .997 fielding percentage), Wagner only has been a full-time catcher for five years.

Wagner pitched and played shortstop much more than he caught at Mayfair High School in Lakewood, Calif. And he initially was drafted by the Atlanta Braves.

"They really liked how I could hit," said Wagner. "I went to Turner Field for a tryout. But at the end of the day I thought 'You know what? I think I'm going to go to college because it would be a better route.'

"At the time, I felt I was still kind of young and had a lot of options in front of me. I had an extremely great opportunity at Cal-Irvine and a number of colleges. I mean, I was going to be paid to play baseball at school.

"There's nothing like going to college when you're younger," continued Wagner. "That's one of the great experiences you're going to have. I decided to go that route and see how it worked out. It did because it brought me to where I am now."

Wagner, who signed after his junior year, was a utility player his freshman year at Cal-Irvine. But the following season, then-head coach John Savage put him behind the plate full time.

"It was more like catching is a commodity even at (the minor league) level or in college," said Wagner. "If you want to be a Division I team that's going to go to the College World Series, you must have a good catcher.

"I always was athletic enough and capable enough to catch some very good guys. We had some very good prospects on our pitching staff at Cal-Irvine and they needed a guy to take care of them. I seemed to fill the bill better than anybody else."

During the transition process, first under Savage and then Dave Serrano who was named the coach prior to Wagner's junior year, he received a crash course in catching.

"It was everything in general, from receiving to take care of the pitchers to blocking pitches in the dirt," he said. "It was the whole nine yards but I picked it up pretty well."

Under Serrano, Wagner was allowed to start calling pitches instead of relaying them in from the bench.

"Serrano was the pitching coach at Cal-State Fullerton and I worked hard with him," said Wagner. "He let me really work on calling pitches. I could say, 'I think we should throw this.' I really got more leeway there."

Wagner also absorbed perhaps the most important lesson a catcher can learn.

"The No. 1 rule is to make sure you get your pitcher a 'W' for that night," he said. "I feel it's a process a lot of guys go through. Maybe it might be more difficult because, with catching, there's so much more of the mental aspect—taking care of pitchers, calling a game, controlling a game and stuff like that.

"At the end of the day, you can be a big league catcher only by taking care of your pitching staff."

Whether or not Wagner will be able to "take care" of a pitching staff in Boston remains to be seen. But he realizes what he has to do in order earn a shot, even though he was placed on Boston's 40-man roster during the offseason.

"One thing I think is going to help me get to where I want to be, which is behind the plate at Fenway, is just refining all of my game, constantly being able to make sure I'm on top of it whether it's blocking, throwing, hitting, whatever," he said. "I've got to realize this is what I'm doing at this point and just do my absolute best to make sure I give it all I've got, to make sure I'm not slacking off anywhere and continue to grow in all aspects and making sure I'm receiving the ball as best as I can.

"I can't take one pitch off. I've got to do whatever it takes to the best of my ability so I can let the pitcher know I'm there for him and am going to do my best to get him that win tonight."

Bill Simmons on David Ortiz and Boston's Support

Evan Brunell — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:39:10 -0400

I love Bill Simmons. He's one of my favorite writers on the planet. Unfortunately, he rarely talks about the Red Sox. He's a Celtics/basketball guy who writes football on the side.

So you can imagine my surprise when I woke up this morning to an article about David Ortiz. I will now share with you my favorite part:

Red Sox fans refuse to turn against Ortiz. They just can't. They owe him too much for 2004 and 2007. It's like turning on Santa Claus or happy hour.

Every Ortiz appearance is greeted with supportive cheers, every Ortiz failure is greeted with awkward silence. The fans are suffering just like he is.

Only when he left 12 men on base against Anaheim on May 14th did I receive a slew of angry e-mails from back home, but even those tirades centered more around Terry Francona's steadfast refusal to drop Ortiz in the order.

I cannot remember another Boston athlete stinking this long, and this fragrantly, without getting dumped on.

Really, that's a tribute to what he means to his fans and how delightful it was to watch him play.

His career might be over (notice I left the door open; I'm such a sap), but Ortiz has reached the highest level an athlete can reach: unequivocal devotion.

Sox fans love him the same way you love an ailing family member. In the end, at his bleakest point, he's brought out the best of an entire fan base.

He has inspired dignity and emotion and loyalty. The fans could have sped his demise (and saved a few games) by booing until Francona benched him. They didn't.

How often does that happen?

Defensive "Deficiency": The Red Sox D Ain't What It Used to Be

Evan Brunell — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 08:00:00 -0400

According to Baseball Prospectus' defensive efficiency metric—which measures how often balls in play are turned into outs—the Red Sox just aren't getting the job done.

Theo Epstein and the rest of the organization have been adamant about keeping a solid defense on the field. And they have stressed it again this season, at least in terms of personnel. But the team just hasn't been getting to balls as often as they have the passed few seasons.

They are currently 27th in the Majors in regards to the metric (DE), and 13th in the American League.

But again, the personnel, it is there.

In center, Jacoby Ellsbury roams full time and has not been poor by any means. However, his 3.2 UZR/150 (3.2 runs saved per 150 games), has been far from great.

Ellsbury makes spectacular plays, and doesn't make many mistakes on the defensive side of the ball. But the young CF is still learning how to run routes, and has been adjusting to the ballparks at this level.

But Ellsbury is the victim of a small sample I would assume. The sample size after 50 games is decent for offensive numbers, but much less reliable when it comes to defensive metrics, which are not necessarily suspect, but not quite as reliable as offensive metrics in general.

So this information should be absorbed, and an opinion should be formed, but that opinion should be taken lightly after only 50 games, in regards to a defensive metric.

Kevin Youkilis, JD Drew, and Dustin Pedroia have all been good as far as defense is concerned. None of the three are on pace to save fewer than four runs above average, which is obviously a very good thing.

The largest problems are at the most obvious positions.

Shortstop

Julio Lugo and Nick Green have combined to give the Red Sox below-average defense at the most important position, outside of the catcher. They both have struggled, combining for 15 errors, and both have posted sub-par UZR's. We see these "struggles" on a daily basis, and in this case it has translated into some hard-nosed evidence.

Left Field

Jason Bay, even though he may be better than Manny, is not a good defender. Bay overall has been great, but his -11 runs "saved" per 150 games is, like the Shortstops, sup-par. Bill James once made it clear that there may be some flaw in the metrics because of the monster, but Bay has never been a great defender to begin with. But the bat makes up for that, definitely.

Third Base

Not so obvious a flaw, but Lowell may too be the victim of the small sample. Because, ever since Lowell has arrived in Boston, his defense has been quite good. But he IS older. 35 years of age. So range will be lost as one ages, and this may be no exception when it comes to Lowell.

We don't as fans like to admit that players lose something, especially "fan favorites." But it happens to everyone. Although, I expect Lowell to improve on this side of the ball, because as he mentioned, he was gaining strength as the season progressed. And with that torn labrum, it only makes sense that his lateral movement will improve.

Since two reliable metrics are more valuable than one, let me quickly point out that the Red Sox as a team are 25th in UZR. So both metrics—UZR and Defensive Efficiency—say pretty much the same thing, and that is that the Red Sox defenders are tracking down far too few balls off of the bat.

But there is a catch. That dreaded variable that so many often ignore.

And that is Red Sox pitching. As Rob Neyer always states, "What happens to balls in play is essentially luck."

"Essentially."

But the team has allowed line drives a higher percentage of the time than all but five teams in baseball. And since line drives fall in roughly 75 percent of the time, then naturally, it will be more difficult for defenders to track down these balls.

In 2008, the Red Sox were fifth in "Efficiency," but also allowed the fourth lowest percent of line drives. Meaning that defenders didn't have to track down hard hit balls as much as most other defensive units did.

And that does matter.

With an improvement in pitching will come an improvement in the defensive numbers. Because like I said, the personnel is there, and hopefully will even get better if Lowrie can return healthy enough. Because even a slightly less mobile Lowrie might do a better job than our SS by committee that is featured now.

New Mechanics, Reliance on Slider Hurting Jonathan Papelbon

Evan Brunell — Fri, 29 May 2009 16:05:00 -0400

There's been no shortage of events this season that have taken us by surprise. David Ortiz, of course, is the big one. But what about Jason Varitek being in double-digit home runs before June? Tim Wakefield being our steadiest starter to date?

Here's one that's taken us by surprise: Jonathan Papelbon looking mortal. His 2.57 ERA is the highest its been as a closer, and superseded only by his 2.67 ERA as a rookie, when he served as a starter and reliever.

His FIP, however, would easily be the highest of his career as it sits at 4.60. He's still striking out well over a batter an inning and is limiting the number of hits he's given up, but it's the free passes that have changed everything.

Papelbon has an eye-popping 4.71 BB/9, this after a career low 1.04 last year. Papelbon has tried to swat away the concerns:

Jonathan Papelbon made some changes to his delivery for this season, the purpose of which was to transfer wear on his arms to his legs.

"Every outing and every day, I'm adding just a little bit more confidence to my delivery and approach and my game," Papelbon said. "Just slowly starting to get better with consistency. When you have consistency, you're going to not have to grind as hard every inning."

"The wear on my arm has gone from there to my legs," Papelbon said. "My legs are taking the brunt of the force now, which is going to enable my arm to stay healthy."

"I've changed my delivery, kind of added a little bit more power to it," Papelbon said. "When you make adjustments in this game, you're going to have to take the good with the bad, and maybe right now I'm throwing a little bit more pitches than I have in the past. To me, I'm still not overworking myself because by changing my mechanics, it's able to take some of that pressure off my arm. So throwing 15 pitches the old way is the same as throwing 25 the new way."

In addition to changing where he sets his hands (from his waist to his shoulder), Papelbon is driving more with his lower body.

Even the slightest adjustment in baseball can make things go awry. So far, that's been the case.

Papelbon struggled a bit in early April with his mechanics but ripped off a nine-game scoreless streak before May 23 and 25 sent his ERA from 0.90 to 2.57. He gave up two runs in each of those appearances despite issuing just one walk total.

While Papelbon's BB/K ratio has improved in May, the batting averages of his opponents have perked up. That would seem to suggest that he's not quite there yet in terms of effectiveness.

He's giving up line drives and fly balls at a greater clip than ever before as a closer. That, naturally, comes with a downturn in grounders which tend to be all but automatic outs.

Papelbon is throwing 17.5 pitches per inning, up from a career 15.8 percent. That's a lot, and can add up over time.

The question is, then, whether these hiccups will eventually straighten themselves out or if this is a product of the new mechanics that supposedly will add longevity to Pap's career. But if the new mechanics boot him out of the discussion as one of the best closers in the game, is it worth it?

People have said that Papelbon relies far too much on the fastball, pounding it away. This is true, to an extent. He's actually throwing less fastballs than last year. Last year, he tossed fastballs 81.2 percent of the time and saw decreased effectiveness as a result. Thanks to Fangraphs' Pitch Linear Weights, we can see this.

I won't go too in-depth as to what pitch linear weights are, but in a nutshell, each pitch thrown has an effect on the probability of a run being scored. If you throw a ball, the probability of a run being scored increases, no matter how negligible. A strike decreases the chances of a run being scored.

Papelbon's fastball was extremely effective in 2007, with a 3.29 weight per 100 pitches. This year, that's down to 0.66. In other words, his fastball isn't game-changing anymore. It's just another pitch.

He's incorporating his slider more than he ever has, throwing it 10.4 percent of the time. He's never been higher than 6.5 percent as a pitcher. He also has brought his change-up back after taking a two-year hiatus from it.

After a career high 19.7 percent usage of his split-fingered fastball in 2006, he's been decreasing his reliability on it to a career-low 10.2 percent so far this year.

For whatever reason, Papelbon and Co. aren't interested in leveraging his splitter as a weapon. Maybe it's because it puts too much strain on his arm or is too inconsistent. Maybe it's not separated enough from his fastball Whatever. The change has been made.

As a result, batters are laying off his pitches far more and making him work for his outs. Batters are swinging 10 percent less, which is a huge differential in baseball. For comparison, a career .300 hitter who gets 500 at-bats and gains an extra 10 percent in hits in one season hit .333.

So what has Papelbon done so far this year? He's tweaked his mechanics, moved away from his splitter and increased reliance on his slider. Based on the numbers, the changes haven't been for good.

I'm a bit concerned about Papelbon's slider being the reason why righties are hitting Papelbon better than they ever have. Righties are hitting at a .261/.364/.421 clip. For reference purposes, from 2006-8 righties hit .178/.215/.254 (lefties hit Papelbon slightly better).

A slider thrown by Papelbon will move away from a right-handed hitter. Hitters can use that natural path to flick the ball the opposite way. If it's an inside pitch, hitters can gear up more effectively for a home run because as they swing, the slider will veer into the sweet spot as opposed to shaving the handle off.

I'm prepared to give Papelbon a couple months more to work the kinks out, especially since he's still being effective—just not as effective. If August rolls around and he's still giving up walks and hits at a higher clip, though, I'll be calling for either a return to his old mechanics or more reliance on his split-fingered fastball.

Fangraphs Address David Ortiz

Evan Brunell — Thu, 28 May 2009 12:26:34 -0400

Not that we couldn't have done this ourselves, but it is interesting to hear another take on a player that we watch every day. And Fangraphs weighs in on Ortiz.

Stay confident, although skeptical that Ortiz can regain any resemblance of his past form. Although Kevin Slowey is a finesse righty, Ortiz did hit two balls fairly well to straight away center last night.

Ortiz still has trouble catching up with the fastball though; that is evident in watching him swing the bat. 90 MPH fastballs seem to blow right by him at times. And there is no doubt that he is pressing, mentally.

But I wouldn't give up on him quite yet. And dropping him in the order was definitely the right thing to do, and should have been done a few weeks ago.

Could Sox get Angel Salome for Penny?

Evan Brunell — Wed, 27 May 2009 09:40:00 -0400

Brad Penny is solidifying himself in the back end of the rotation after a tough start to the year. His ERA may be an unsightly 5.96, but he's providing quality starts and keeping the team in the game.

However, with John Smoltz needing to be activated by June 19, a decision looms. It's clear that Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka are more long-term options in the rotation than Penny. It's also clear that the Sox won't force Tim Wakefield out of the rotation in favor of Penny.

It boils down to two choices: does Penny go to the bullpen or is he moved to another team?

All signs point to the latter choice because Penny has shown a willingness to waive his no-trade clause (which only exists until June 15, a clause all free agents receive as a condition of signing a contract)

If it's the latter choice, is it done as soon as possible with Clay Buchholz or Justin Masterson filling in, or do we wait to make the transition to John Smoltz?

I wouldn't be against doing it as soon as possible. The earlier done, the more value you can extract. Plus, I haven't been too thrilled with him. He's become a fly-ball pitcher, and while he's got strikeout and walk ratios similar to his excellent 2007 campaign, I'm not impressed with his pitching.

I can understand why the Sox would want to wait, though. Injuries can destroy depth in a hurry, plus the Sox seem to want to give Buchholzsome consistency, rather than jerking him up and down I-95.

Either way, it's a near certainty that the Sox trade Penny. What could the Sox get in return for him? Asking the Brewers for J.J. Hardy -- or any other team for a quality shortstop or starting position player -- is out. What the Sox can get, though, is a solid prospect who could develop into a starter for the club.

A name came across my radar the other day that I think makes a lot of sense for both teams.

C ANGEL SALOME -- Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers aren't going to be willing to give up J.J. Hardy for Penny, especially with Rickie Weeks out for the season. You can count out Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, as well.

That's not to say they don't have any prospects worth acquiring or that we'll be giving Penny up for a bucket of balls.

The Brewers have questions at catcher after this year with Jason Kendall becoming a free agent. However, they have C/3B Brett Lawrie also in the system, and, as a team currently in a game out of first, need all the help they can get in the rotation to make a push. Plus, Salome is unlikely to contribute as a starter until 2011. Brad Penny is going to be one of the top five starting pitching options on the trade market, and you can bet the Brewers are interested.

Salome, 23, made his major league debut last year and only got three at-bats. He was excellent in Double-A for the whole year, hitting .360/.415/.559. He has burgeoning power potential but doesn't draw walks with any type of consistency (think Mike Lowell).

So far this year, Salome is hitting .245/.307/.343 in his first go-round in Triple-A. He has a cannon for an arm and shows good blocking skills. He tends to rush his throws, however, which result in off-kilter tosses to second. He was also suspended in 2007 for 50 games due to performance-enhancing drugs, which is a completely different animal to deal with.

Do the Red Sox institute a policy that they will never acquire a player that has been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs? Or do they allow everyone to play on a level field under the current drug program, letting the system do its job and bringing in people who have been suspended? It's a dicey question... with no easy answer.

The Red Sox could have Salome finish the year in Triple-A and then compete in 2010 for the catching job (both starting and backup). Assuming he doesn't win the job, he could use another year of seasoning in Triple-A and then step in as the starter in 2011 as a 25-year old with Varitek on hand as the backup catcher to help with the transition.

What do you think? Could the Sox nab Salome for Penny?

Ellsbury "Coming Into His Own?"

Evan Brunell — Wed, 27 May 2009 00:48:16 -0400

Entering Thursday, Jacoby Ellsbury had a 22-game hitting streak.

But even during a stretch where Ellsbury has been red-hot, the power is not really showing.

Ells has hit .330/.365/.418 during the first 22 games of the chase for Dimaggio. And over a stretch where a player has a hit in each and every game, the slugging percentage should probably be higher than what it has been. But that slugging percentage is an unimpressive .418.

Now Jacoby doesn't have to hit 25 home runs to be an effective big-leaguer. He just needs to play good defense at an up-the-middle position, get on base, and steal some bags while on...without getting caught much of course.

It just seems like maybe the power should be a little more, well, powerful over a 22-game hitting streak. These streaks are examples of cherry-picking at its best. However, they generally contain a player doing very well within the streak itself. And Ellsbury has been effective, and has reached base a good amount of the time.

I am just concerned that he will never develop any kind of power. Although, watching him recently, he definitely showed some pop in that bat, hitting a few balls well, that turned into outs (in addition to the two actual hits that he had of course).

With the potential to win a "Fielding Bible" Award, or two (Gold Gloves if you prefer), the awesome ability on the basepaths, and the ability to hit for average, what is the minimum power supply that we need from Ellsbury to live up to expectations?

Curious as to what you all think. Expressing it in the form of sluging percentage would be most relevant.

Fireside Chats #47: Where We Narrowly Avoid Complete Technical Meltdown

Evan Brunell — Tue, 26 May 2009 23:52:18 -0400

Boston Red Sox podcast on MVN Radio, Episode #47 where we narrowly avoid complete technical meltdown and the potential loss (yours more so than ours) of our entire raw show recording.

Episode #47
Hosts: Paul Testa, Tim Daloisio
Guests: none

We called for David Ortiz' demotion to the six hole and Tito responded in kind. What should we call for next? Clay Buchholz' promotion to the big club? Or his trade for a big bat? Cease and desist orders on all "what's up with Papelbon" talk? or do we dare use our powers to find a way to send Julio Lugo out of town?

All that and more on Episode #47 of Fireside Chats on MVN!

Thanks for listening!

Leave us a voice mail to be played on the air at 641-715-3900 ext. 57843
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Listen, subscribe to us on iTunes, review the show, tell your friends, spread the word: (this will launch iTunes).

When is enough for David Ortiz?

Evan Brunell — Fri, 15 May 2009 14:10:00 -0400

This is a situation that I was not too eager to broach, but now that it's the halfway mark into May and the home-run total by David Ortiz matches my career total, it's time.

When do the Red Sox make a change with David Ortiz?

The way I see it, there are two options, both of which belong to David Ortiz. Make no mistake: at some point, probably soon, the Red Sox will come to Ortiz and say the situation has reached a head.

Ortiz's slump reached its nadir (at least, we hope it's the nadir) with an 0-for-7, 12 LOB effort yesterday. The Sox will allow him to dig out of that nadir, but if he doesn't, things will change in early June.

Ortiz will be presented with two options, and his situation will be such that he understands he has to accept one or the other.

And no, one option is not the benching of Ortiz. That would serve no earthly purpose to the ultimate goal: getting Ortiz hitting. This team is still dependent on Ortiz hitting. Any choice is going to be made with that goal as the endgame.

The organization has too much respect—as they should—for Ortiz to tell him that "this is how it's gonna go, whether you like it or not." They're going to frame the order as if Ortiz has a choice—because in reality he does.

This is a slippery slope the Sox will put themselves on, and they need to proceed as such.

They can get much more out of Ortiz if they go to him and say "look, the elephant in the room is that you're struggling. It's reached a point where it can't go on as it is, and we've come up with two options. Out of respect to you, we will let you make the choice. Here are the options."

Ortiz will either be told he needs to be dropped in the order to seventh (I'm guessing the lineup would go Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Drew, Bay, Lowell, Ortiz, Varitek, Lugo) or he needs to go on the disabled list, take some time away from the game to clear his head, then work in extended spring training to get his mechanics tweaked out.

A nice lengthy, confidence-building trip through the minors would put him on track to return in early July and ready to show everyone Big Papi is back.

Hey, if Chien-Ming Wang can pitch worse than Kyle Kendrick and be put on the DL with a phantom injury, why can't Ortiz? (Note: this is not a knock on the Yankees. The Sox have been the king of DL manipulation for years and other teams are starting to catch on and do so themselves.)

Ortiz will be allowed to make that choice. If it were me, I would have Ortiz accept a demotion to the seven spot and work it out there. I'd do this because Ortiz's potential bat reaps far more rewards than it would giving those at-bats to a platoon of Rocco Baldelli and Jeff Bailey.

I think Papi would choose the other option, though. I don't think it makes sense for him to concede that he should be dropped to seventh. I want him to maintain the confidence that he's a No. 3 hitter in the big leagues.

By acceding to the dropdown, everyone knows even he realizes he's not the same, and that would do damage to his self-confidence and boost the confidence of every pitcher in the league.

No, it would be better for him to take time off, rediscover his swing, then be eased back into the Sox lineup in the bottom of the order where the team can say he's only batting that low because he's being eased back in—not because he belongs down there.

Baseball is 90 percent mental, the other half physical, after all.

What do you think? What option should Papi take?

Dustin Pedroia Could Earn a Batting Title

Evan Brunell — Fri, 15 May 2009 10:22:37 -0400

Dustin Pedroia was named Rookie of the Year in 2007 and won MVP in 2008.

But he's yet to win a batting title, something that is currently a very real possibility.

That is not necessarily because of Pedroia's batting .336 after a four-hit performance, yesterday. It has a little to do with that, yes. But mostly this is because of his past performance, with a small correlation to his current performance.

In his first two seasons in the league, Pedroia has batted .317 and .326.

It seems likely that Dustin can sustain these type of numbers because he has such a high contact rate, and plays in a park that aids in his production.

There are several legit candidates with which to compete. And the batting title has lost its luster, considering how much the world dwells over on base percentage.

But .336 is impressive. The higher the average, the higher the OBP.

Just because we are in a new age doesn't mean that we can't appreciate what mattered so much 20 years ago: batting titles, hitting streaks, and the Kansas City Royals.

Last time I checked, a hit is more valuable than a walk—more exciting, too.

Do you think that he can do it?

Red Sox Needs to Remember How to Bunt

Evan Brunell — Thu, 14 May 2009 20:57:48 -0400

I am not a proponent of the sacrifice bunt in most cases. For example, with one out, I don't believe in the sacrifice—ever. So the fact that the Red Sox don't bunt runners over doesn't bother me at all.

However, there are times in which a bunt is needed. The Red Sox missed two such opportunities today in Anaheim, and it may have cost them a win.

It was the top of the ninth, zero outs, and a 4-4 game. Julio Lugo led with a double. A Jacoby Ellsbury bunt moved him to third with one out. Dustin Pedroia's sacrifice flew deep to Torii Hunter in center field.

In the top of the 11th, with zero outs, and a 4-4 game, Jason Bay was gifted first on a strike out and past ball. Nick Green bunted him over to second where a single brought in the go ahead run.

What's the problem with these two scenarios? They never happened because the batters where swinging away. Of course, the outcomes couldn't have been worse.

In the top of the ninth, Ellsbury grounded into a fielder's choice, ending up at second base with one out after a run down. Instead of coming home after Pedroia's fly to center, he got stuck at second. Red Sox didn't score.

In the top of the 11th, Green promptly grounded into a double play—inning over.

For justification of selective sacrifice bunting, contrast the Red Sox decision to swing away in bunt situations with the Los Angeles Angels' walk off winning inning.

In the bottom of the 12th with no outs in a 4-4 game, Juan Rivera got a single. Rivera got a pinch run by Reggie Willits, who was bunted over to second by Eric Aybar. Jeff Mathis got singles in the winning run—and that's the ballgame.

Go Early, Go Often: Fire Brand's Best of April

Evan Brunell — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 08:51:18 -0400

Tonight's game against the Tampa Bay Rays marks the final game of the first calendar month of the season; and what an April it was. From the panic that set in BWNNH (Before Wake's Near No Hitter) after a 2-6 start, to the exhilaration of winning 12 out of 13 including a le-gen *wait for it* DARY sweep of the New York Yankees AB (Anno Bay—In the Year of Our Bay), April has been all Red Sox fans could ask for.

Who would have thought after the first week of the season that April would end with the Red Sox atop the American League with the league's best winning percentage?

Today we look at the best performances of April, culminating in the Fire Brand Player of the Month award.

If we were to look at the straight performance of each player in comparison of each other to make such an assessment, I think our current poll (which will stay up through the weekend) showcases the best of the best numbers for players in April.

Early returns have Kevin Youkilis' gaudy numbers trumping both Tim Wakefield's contribution from the mound and Jason Bay's late inning heroics. As Paul and I talked about in this week's podcast, it's hard to argue with the collective wisdom on this point.

But to truly nail down the Most Valuable Player of April, I wanted to look a little deeper at the "contribution" of each player to the Red Sox 14-7 record. With that in mind I wanted to turn to both Win Probability Added and Value Wins to add additional context to the straight numbers.

April Win Probability Added Leaderboard:

1. Jason Bay: 1.79

2. Kevin Youkilis: 1.27

3. Ramon Ramirez: 1.08

4. Tim Wakefield: 1.01

5. Jonathan Papelbon: .98

Win Probability Added gives a lens of players' performance in the context of the net impact his individual at bats had on the overall outcome of the game. Players that get "the hit" that turns a game from a loss to a win, will rise to the top over an equally as consistent player who hasn't shone as brightly in highly leveraged situations.

It should be no surprise that Jason Bay's overall production complimented by his flair for the dramatic in the past week pushes him to the top of the WPA leaderboard for April and we would expect to see Youk's name on any leaderboard across baseball given his hot start.

The name that jumps out at me most off this list, mostly for his exclusion in the conversation to this point was Ramon Ramirez. In WPA terms, a reliever who consistently gets the job done in highly leveraged situations, with the game on the line, will rise to the top. Outside of Jonathan Papelbon whose pLI (Leverage Index) this season is 2.70, Ramirez has been used in more critical situations than any other Red Sox reliever with a pLI of 1.80. His success in those outings, 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA over 12.1 IP, has been a huge part of the Red Sox league leading bullpen.

April Value Wins Leaderboard:

1. Kevin Youkilis: 1.6

2. Jason Bay: 1.0

3. Tim Wakefield: .8

3. Mike Lowell: .8

Value Wins loses the context of leverage in aggregating it's index, but it adds both fielding and position into the conversation of how much a player's performance contributes to a team's wins.

Looking at player's performance through this lens gives credence to the fact that Youkilis' Gold Glove ability in the field, when combined with his bat, gives him the clear advantage in the race for Player of the Month. The other names remain as expected with the appearance of Mike Lowell who's RBIs haven't come in highly leveraged situations to make the WPA leaderboad.

April Red Sox Player of the Month: Kevin Youkilis

Bay gets the runner up award, but Kevin Youkilis may be the leader for American League Player of the Month and the leader for League MVP around the first turn of a long track.

Can Youk keep up his early season hot streak? I encourage you to read Brian Joura's article today at FanGraphs for some good perspective.

A Few Thoughts on Jason Varitek

Evan Brunell — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 16:14:05 -0400

Why would a 37-year-old player have a wOBA spike of over 50 points from one season to the next? This is the question people should be asking about Jason Varitek and his surprising start.

This is a difficult question to answer because he is getting lucky and unlucky at the same time. Let us start with the good. Jason is hitting an excellent 21 percent Line Drive rate and 36 percent Ground-ball rate.

These numbers should put his BABIP above .300, but his current BABIP is a meager .182. There is no conceivable way he would hit for those rates and still fall under .250. In 2007, when his numbers were comparable, he managed a .318.

His plate discipline and pitch recognition has also improved upon last season. Jason has lowered the pitches he swings at outside of the strike zone by 4 percent.

Furthermore; the pitches he does swing at outside of the zone are making contact 14 percent more. Overall, he is swinging less and making contact at a much improved rate.

If a player can sustain that, he will inevitably improve his numbers. Now let's discuss the lucky. If you look at what led to Jason's poor season, the easiest way to explain it is in the pitches he saw.

Before last season, he would see nearly double (about 8 percent to 16 percent) the change-ups verse curve-balls. The rates were never closer than 7 percent of each other in a given season.

Last season, the difference was just under 2 percent. He saw 4 percent more curve-balls and 3 percent fewer change-ups. This season is nearly identical to last season (CB%=11%, 11.4% and CH%=12.9, 13.4%).

It is difficult to be 100 percent certain about why pitchers stopped throwing change-ups and starting throwing curves to Jason.

My best guess would be Jason's inability to catch up to fastballs led to him having more success against the change. If someone has a better explanations please tell me, I'm honestly very curious about this.

That being said, I can be nearly 100 percent positive that his did negatively affect him. Assuming this is true; we should expect his numbers to begin to come back down to earth. Another troubling fact about his start is his home-run to fly-ball rate.

His career average is 13.8 which are pretty standard. This season, however, he has seen a spike up to 22.2 percent. He has not had his average in the 20's since 2003.

One would expect this number to come back down to earth and his home-run totals to do the same. It is possible that his power is up but not this much. Finally, Jason is not a speed guy.

This is nothing new and blatantly obvious. Why it is then that infield hit rate of 13.3 percent? His career total is 3.8 percent. Unless Jason has stolen Ricky Henderson's legs, this number is not even close to sustainable, especially when you consider his infield fly-ball rate has not changed at all.

When this number comes down, expect a decrease in his OBP. So, what's the conclusion? While pitchers have figured out how to beat Jason and he has got lucky with several indicators, there is still a good chance that he will sustain this production.

Sorry if this got a tad "stat heavy" but it was necessary to make a point. I said at the time this signing was a good one and I stick by it. Jason will be a top 15 catcher this season and well worth the money he received.

Mid-Week Minor League Round-up

Evan Brunell — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 09:00:00 -0400

Continuing the mid-week minor league round-up, I've decided to add a new aspect in this weekly series. Along with giving the weeks top performers, I'm also going to add in the guys that have not quite lived up to expectations. You could assume I'm doing so because there's a few guys that fall under this category, and I wouldn't have a compelling counter to that assumption. Not to discourage some of you that like following some of these kids coming up through the system as the majority of the top prospects have lived up to expectations, but of course, there are a few that have not. We'll start off with the good:

The Impressing:

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Greenville: The leading position player in wOBA at .434 and RC at 16.9, Rizzo has picked up straight where he left off at this time in 2008, pushing his double slash totals to .319/.412/.514 with 10 XBH's in 72 AB's. He's maintained his linedrive stroke into this season, mashing at a 23.4% clip. The home run power has slowly increased as well and should continue to do so as long as he gets more leverage in his swing. It's important to note this improvement, because in 83 AB's last year, he was hitting the ball on the ground at a 51.6% rate, and this year, he's elevated the ball much better, grounding the ball at a 33.9% pace.

Felix Doubront, LHP, Portland: An oft-overlooked pitcher, "Prince Felix" continues to miss bats at a impressive rate in which he struck out 118 (walking 24) Sally League hitters in 114 IP last year by posting a solid 11.93 K/9 in 14 innings this year. He's only 21 years old and pitching against far more advanced hitters in AA than last year, and he hasn't missed a beat. Perhaps it's his stuff is what has kept him a secret thus far, as he features a 88-91 mph fastball, above average curveball, improving slider, and a developing change-up with good deceptive movement. He's always going to be the prototypical finesse southpaw, but his advanced pitchability and deception continues to be a problem for opposing hitters. Definitely keep an eye on this young man.

Ryan Kalish, OF, Salem: Ever wonder how much a wrist injury affects a hitter? No? Well, just ask Kalish. After battling part of 2007 and most of 2008 with a broken hamate bone, Ryan has quickly moved up the prospect rankings by combining his strong quick wrists and implementing his new-found plate discipline into arguably the most well-rounded game in the system. At first glance, his .291/.474/.418 line may not seem all that gaudy. But, take a look at that OBP! He leads the system in walks by a long shot. Power is typically one of the last parts of a hitters game to develop, and with his speed, build, quick bat, and eventual spot in the line-up (lead-off), I wouldn't be concerned with his power. He should still rack up the XBH's at a solid rate.

The Struggling:

Che-Hsuan Lin, OF, Salem: Came into the year as a must follow for most, Lin has arguably been the biggest disappointment as far as hitters go in the 2009 season. Hitting .160/.246/.200, this is a case opposite of Kalish, where it's bad to have an slugging percentage lower than your OBP. Yet, they're actually pretty similar players excluding the short sample size this season. Both have very quick wrists and share similarities in that power is definitely the weak spot in their game. The differ in that Lin has never posted great contact rates. He's probably seen nothing but breaking pitches, and for good reason. He struggles in pitch recognition with his big timing step. It's a huge stepping stone to cross in order to reach his high ceiling. Until this improves, he'll continue to struggle.

Kyle Weiland, RHP, Salem: Weiland came into this season with high expectations after holding NYPL hitters to a.473 OPSa and posting a 68 K/10 BB ratio in 60 IP last year. Weiland has subsequently taken a complete 180, giving up 22 hits in 12 IP, flashing a 12.00 ERA and 1.082 OPSa this year. Drafted out of Notre Dame last June, he skipped A-ball and has struggled against more age-appropriate competition. His biggest caveat coming into the season were his off-speed pitches. Reportedly, they've looked quite flat and hitters have laid off them by attacking his low-mid 90's fastball. He relied heavily on his fastball last year and will need to learn to mix in his off-speed pitches better before he'll show some results against more advanced hitters.

Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Greenville: Similar situation as Weiland, Stolmy came into the 2009 under enormous and probably unfair expectations after impressing in the NYPL. However, he's the complete opposite of Weiland in terms of why he's struggling. The main reason Pimentel was highly regarded coming into the year was because of the polished arsenal, particularly his off-speed, at such a young age, reminiscent of Pedro Martinez. Here's a few numbers to throw your way to give you an idea of his struggles, regardless of a fluky ERA: .833 OPSa; 12.77 H/9; and only a 5.89 K/9. He tends to overthrow at times in order to compensate for his low-90's fastball instead of trusting it and hitting his spots. Currently, he has well-below average command, and he's been getting hit pretty hard as a result. At a .400 BABIP though, I'd expect a normalized rate to lower the contact rates. However, until he improves his command, he won't fool many advanced hitters.

Lugo Plays Field, Ks Twice in Rehab Assignment, Will Return April 27

Evan Brunell — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 18:02:54 -0400

Julio Lugo began a rehab assignment Wednesday for the Pawtucket Red Sox and came away feeling better, physically, than his performance would indicate.

Lugo, who batted leadoff and played shortstop, was 0-for-3 in three official at-bats and drew a walk in an International League game won by Pawtucket, 8-7, over Rochester in 11 innings.

He handled four routine plays in the field and was credited with three assists and one out.

"I felt good... I felt a little nervous getting back out there," said Lugo, who was placed on Boston's disabled list April 4 (retroactive to March 27) after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus cartilage in his right knee. "It felt good to get back in a real game. You have better pitching here which you don't see in extended spring (training). They threw some good pitches.

"The thing here is a matter of my feeling comfortable with my knee. In the beginning, when I first started playing I had some pain when I went down (to field groundballs). I don't have a problem with that like I did in the beginning. I don't have to worry about bending any more. It's a matter of getting my leg strong again and I'll be alright."

Rochester right-hander Kevin Mulvey struck out Lugo in each at-bat.

Lugo went down swinging on a 1-2 pitch in the first inning. He fanned on three pitches in the second. And he looked at a third strike on a 3-2 pitch in the fifth.

Lugo said he would join Pawtucket on Friday when it begins a three-game series at Lehigh Valley and then join Boston in Cleveland on April 27.

"That's the plan and I can't wait," he said. "It's been a long time since I've played up there. It's going to be a thrill for me to go back."

The PawSox' victory bordered on incredulous because they trailed 7-2 in the bottom of the ninth.

Sean Danielson's sacrifice fly plated one run and then Johnathan Van Every (who's also with Pawtucket on a rehab assignment), belted a two-out, grand-slam home run (on a 3-2 pitch) off Armando Gabino to tie it and force extra innings.

Pawtucket won it in the bottom of the 11th when Chip Ambres drew a two-out, bases-loaded walk (also on a 3-2 pitch) by Mike Gosling.

Other than Lugo's play and Van Every's clutch homer, two other bright spots for Pawtucket were the performances of Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard.

Buchholz, who's still on a strict pitch count, allowed two runs on three hits and two walks over five innings and threw 49 of 65 pitches for strikes.

"I had to get warm every inning before I went out (to the mound)," said Buchholz. "I felt good about my breaking ball. As I told R.J. (PawSox manager Ron Johnson), it's easier whenever you're throwing breaking balls for strikes to mess around with other pitches instead of having to throw fastballs because it's the only pitch I can get over the plate.

"It definitely was a step in the right direction for me."

Without question, Bard took another step in the right direction.

He only pitched the ninth but fanned the top three Rochester batters on nine pitches.

"That's exactly what we told him to do ... throw nine pitches and get us back in here," quipped Johnson.

An Early Look In Boston Red Sox's OBS Statistics

Evan Brunell — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 08:00:00 -0400

I may have trust issues, so excuse my hesitance to put any real meaning into early individual numbers.

But they are all we have up to this point...

The team, and by team I mean the Boston Red Sox, is 7-6.

Not great, not bad, slightly better than mediocre, etc.

Some have struggled, some have been great, and some have been okay.

Let us dive into a quick take on each hitter in the everyday lineup...

Jacoby Ellsbury: OPS+ 55

Ellsbury really struggled early, but picked it up against the sub-par Baltimore pitching. And the last two games, Ellsbury actually flashed a little power, with his first two extra base hits of the season.

The defense will be there, he just has to learn how to hit decent at this level. Something that is hopefully becoming a reality after a few solid games.

Dustin Pedroia: OPS+ 86:

Speaking of picking it up...I guess that is what the Orioles pitching staff allows a hitter to do. Although, I do not want to dismiss the offensive explosion of the last few days completely.

After all, they did "rock" Orioles "Ace" Jeremy Guthrie, and last time I checked, he is a pretty good pitcher. But anyway, Pedroia has reached base 10 times in the past four games. His OBP is now roughly league-average, and his slugging has broken the .400 mark. And both of those categories should only improve from here on out.

David Ortiz: OPS+ terrible (42 to be exact)

Ortiz will swing the bat better than he has. But that isn't praise by any means. Big Papi just seems reluctant to swing. And I love OBP, there probably isn't a more important offensive number in baseball.

But if the reason Ortiz was being overly patient/passive was simply to reach base as much as possible, then it would be ok. But he seems to be avoiding wanting to swing, as he just isn't seeing the ball well and/or isn't swinging the bat well.

The numbers will come, but the cumulation is the question.

Kevin Youkilis: OPS+ 232

While everyone seems to be adjusting to the season, Youk is taking advantage. He is showing us all that the MVP caliber Kevin Youkilis is here to stay. But it's really, really early. Naturally, the OPS will come down, but will it be 140 or 120 by seasons end?

JD Drew: OPS+ 139

Low average, high OBP, really high Slugging %. The Red Sox are being careful with Drew, allowing him to play only 10 of the 13 games thus far. Very smart on their part. They know his history, so why not try and keep him fresh by giving him days off?

Jason Bay: OPS+ 176

Bay has 15 walks through 13 games. Meaning he will walk well over 162 times if this pace continues. It will not, obviously. Bay is a good, possibly even a great player. But his OBP will probably be sub-.400 and his Slugging will be sub-.600. However, he, like I said, is a good player. The stellar play should continue.

Mike Lowell: OPS+ 102

Lowell has been okay, and that is a good sign. Knowing that he should be able to stay on the field and perform while residing there, is a positive sign. Not many should expect 2007 all over again out of this guy, but an above-average all around 3B is very possible.

Jason Varitek: OPS+ 127

Fluke. Varitek may be a little better than expected, but that .583 Slugging is ridiculous, and will not continue. I will be happy if he can slug over .400 to be honest. But he has definitely been hitting well so far. Hopefully he and Kottaras can combine to make up one decent catcher this season.

SS: OPS+ Not good

The SS position, a combination of Jed Lowrie and Nick Green, has been atrocious at the plate. Lowrie was downright pitiful (and injured as we found out), and Green hasn't been much either.

But Green did have a big hit against the O's, where he drilled the fourth consecutive slider to straight away center over the head of the CF (who was playing him shallow to begin with).

I actually can't wait for Lugo's return, at least then they can mix and match the two SS's whichever way they want.

Team OPS+ 101

Basically, the offense has been average. It should get better, as many are playing below their talents. But the run prevention is really where it is at this season. But we knew that going in, didn't we?

"Vintage Lester dominates Orioles" as Red Sox Edge Out Baltimore, 2-1

Evan Brunell — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 21:35:39 -0400

"Vintage Lester dominates Orioles" read the headline after Sunday's 2-1 Red Sox victory over Baltimore. While headlines are known for hyperbole, by definition, Jon Lester's third and best start of 2009 was vintage.

vin-tage: adjective (1) representing the high quality of a past time (2) being the best of its kind.

After a breakout 2008 campaign, Jon Lester hadn't seemed to find his groove early in 2009. Through his first two starts of the season, questions about his ability to avoid the "Verducci Effect" known to smite young pitchers coming off a season of above average workload were echoing across baseball blogs everywhere.

*Can you really blame them? A branded effect is hard to ignore. Much like Simmons' Ewing Theory, the Verducci Effect has taken a life of its own.

Lester himself however was unfazed by his lackluster start.

"After the previous starts, I kept saying that I threw the ball better than the linescore showed. It was nice today to go out and throw the ball well again and get the results I wanted to. It just reiterates in the back of your mind that, 'OK, nothing is wrong, I'm still OK' and just move forward." - Jon Lester, 4.19.09

In the past, we would have to either (a) take Jon Lester on his words that he was throwing the ball as well as he wanted in his first two starts or (b) let our eyes and a line score convince us otherwise.

Thanks to the world of data at our fingertips, or better yet through our browsers, we can now be more critical and calculating in our analysis of players self-review. Enter PitchFX.

So what is PitchFX? For those of you not familiar with the term, it's the system that powers the pitch type visualizations on MLB's Enhanced Gameday. Using two cameras and a series of algorithms tracking the flight of the ball from the pitchers hand to the plate, this data can be easily parsed for detailed analysis.

In my aim to validate Lester's assertion that he really wasn't doing much differently between the first two "not so good" starts and his seven shut out innings against Baltimore this weekend, I decided to take a look at PitchFX data from 2008 in aggregate, his top three game (as ranked by game score) in 2008, and his first three starts of this season and compare and contrast the findings.

If we look across all of 2008 using Fangraphs PitchFX data, you can get a good idea of the selection, velocity, and movement of Jon Lester's pitches.

As you can see, Lester worked off his fastball most of the time. His fastball moved more vertically than it did horizontally and had a similar plane to his change up. His curveball and cutter both worked in to right handed batters and where used regularly within his repertoire.

To get some good visualizations of this data, I turned to BrooksBaseball.net's game by game PitchFX tool. Here's an example of Jon Lester's pitch movement from his no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals last May.

First from above:

And the same data from the side:

Here's the game data summary from that game in the same format as the 2008 season at large above. You can see by the similarity of this data to his overall pitch type data for the season, that he had command of each pitch in his arsenal that day. He was in total control with his better stuff.

After looking at his other 80+ game score outings last season, I think it's safe to consider this representative of Jon Lester pitching to his "A game".

I would describe his "A game" as being characterized by a 92 MPH fastball that breaks away from right handed batters and a change up that rides a similar plane but is 7-9 MPH slower than the fastball. He has a healthy mix of cutters and curveballs that he can throw into the mix for strikes to change the plane and spin off his fastball and keep batters off balance.

So what did we see in the first two outings of 2009 that may have differed from this "A game" Jon Lester? Was his third and more successful start tangibly different than the other two?

I think the data bears out that there are some differences in his pitches year over year. I think it also bears out that there were only minimal differences between "good" Lester and "bad" Lester.

Here's a table with the same data from each of Lester's first three starts of the season.

So what do the first three games tell us about Jon Lester this season? First off all, he's added to his arsenal. He's complimented his traditional four seam fastball with a two seam fastball and he's mixed his slider into the rotation to compliment his curveball.

Over the course of the season, having more pitches to choose from should prove valuable for Lester assuming that he has control of each selection. He and Jason Varitek should be able to move from pitch to pitch and find the ones that are "on" any given day and lean into those pitches.

Of course, looking at the data above, it all starts with Lester's four seam fastball. As will often happen to start a season, Lester's average fastball velocity was a little low in his first few starts. As it did last season, I expect his average velocity and his upper limit to increase throughout the season.

It is interesting to note however, that in his third start, Lester was able to rely more on his fastball and throw it at a higher effective velocity than his two previous starts.

Looking closer at this data, it isn't necessarily fair to group Lester's first two starts together in the "bad" category. For the most part his first and third starts look to be the most comparable.

The major difference being a rough fifth inning against the middle of the Tampa Bay Rays lineup. In that inning, Lester threw 15 fastballs out of 24 pitches. Here is a graph of those 24 pitches and the results.

The light blue square closest to the heart of the plate was the 3-1, 89 MPH fastball down the pike with much less movement than his average fastball that Carlos Pena took deep to push the game to 5-1 Rays.

Proceeding that at bat, Lester had walked Gabe Kapler before Akinori Iwamura singled to move runners to the corners. A bunt single and Carl Crawford flare accounted for some unlucky damage before Lester got Evan Longoria to ground into a double play. All in all, Lester's "stuff" didn't appear to be the issue in his first start. He did in fact pitch better than his 9.00 ERA would suggest.

The same can't be said for his second start. Looking at his pitch selection, it would indicate that Lester either (a) never really felt comfortable with his fastball or (b) the game plan with Jason Varitek against the Oakland As took him away from his normal strengths.

Either way, the data would indicate that he did not pitch a game in line with his "A game" in Oakland.

What did Lester do right in his third start? He had great control of his fastball and a little more life than his previous two starts and he leaned into a steady mix of cutters and sliders off his fastball.

He was able to elevate his fastball with velocity and keep hitters off balance with the rest of his repertoire.

Does this all give us any idea what to expect over the course of Lester's season? I think it's too early to tell. But given where his velocity stands, his ability to command his fastball for strikes at a near 70% clip and the mix of pitches to work hitters off of, I think Lester will show more of the same "vintage" Lester in his coming outings.

photo via flickr, Keith Allison (http://www.flickr.com/photos/keithallison/2776516655/)