Detroit Lions Need Federal Bailout

Mike Register — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 05:19:53 -0500

General Motors' stock is trading at under $3 per share. Ford is hurting and Chrysler was hoping to merge with GM to stave off bankruptcy.

With all the trouble the automakers are facing in Detroit, it seems appropriate that the local team, the Detroit Lions, are stumbling as well.

The Lions face the very real possibility of going winless this season. Of their remaining seven opponents, only New Orleans and Green Bay have a losing record (both are 4-5).

While the US government debates whether or not to bail out the automakers, I only jokingly ask, should they bail out the Detroit Lions as well? While drastic action is needed, the Miami Dolphins have shown that a big turnaround in one season is certainly possible.

Like the automakers, the Lions have struggled with bad management and a poor product. This can be traced directly back to the long tenure of former GM Matt Millen. Millen's poor choices in coaches and players have decimated the Lions. Firing Millen was a move in the right direction, but more needs to be done.

As a courtesy to the Ford family, I've devised the Lion's Bailout Plan to turn this struggling franchise around.

Step 1: Clean house of the current coaching and management staff. The Lions need to let go of everyone associated with the losing atmosphere that has surrounded this team and replace it with a General Manager that understands how to build a team.

The "Home Run" candidate is New England GM Scott Pioli. A more realistic candidate is Tom Heckert, the current GM of the Philadelphia Eagles. Then let these guys decide who to bring in as head coach. With their connections to Bill Bellicheck and Andy Reid, respectively, there should be plenty of worthy candidates to choose from.

Also, the Lions could kill two birds with one stone by hiring former Steelers coach Bill Cowher to be GM and Head Coach.

Step 2: Gut the roster. This has been one of the keys to the Dolphin's success this season; they let go of the players who didn't fit their system, or didn't have the will to win. They also sent a message to every player on the roster that they need to perform to keep their job.

The Lions have a few potential building blocks on their roster, such as WR Calvin Johnson, RB Kevin Smith, OT Gosder Cherilus, and QB Drew Stanton. They need to cut loose aging castoffs like Jon Kitna, Daunte Culpepper, Rudi Johnson, Brian Kelly, Edwin Mulitalo, and Ryan Nece. These guys are just taking time away from the development of their young talent.

Step 3: This is a no-brainer. Every team needs to draft well to win. The Lions need to stockpile draft picks by trading down and stop striking out on first rounders like they did with WRs Mike Williams and Charles Rogers and QB Joey Harrington. The Lions have also routinely failed to find hidden gems in the later rounds to build up their roster.

Step 4: Makeover the team uniforms, colors, and logos. While many will scoff at this idea, I think it would be a good psychological move for the Lions.

For the first 20 years of the Tampa Bay Bucs' existence, they wore those awful yellow outfits, and they became synonymous with losing. When they hired Tony Dungy, they changed their uniforms, colors, and logos, and things turned around.

Why not try that with the Lions? They have had six winning seasons in the last 20 years and only one (2000: 9 wins) this decade. The Patriots had more wins last season (18) then the Lions did in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008 (through week 10) combined!

Can ESPN Make You a Profitable Gambler?

Mike Register — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 04:55:59 -0400

NOTE: This article is not meant to endorse gambling. It is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

When I do my weekly projections for my fantasy football team, I like to take a look at ESPN's weekly intel report on each game. This report provides me with a few valuable stats and gives me an idea of how the game may turn out. One interesting feature is ESPN's AccuScore Game Forecast. AccuScore simulates each game over 10,000 times and gives the probability of each team winning.

While playing poker and calculating pot odds yesterday, it hit me. If these AccuScore game forecasts are accurate, then I need to compare them to the actual Money Line and see if there is an opportunity to make money. Teams that have a positive Expected Value (or EV), should make for good bets in the long run.

EV is fairly easy to calculate, and anyone with basic Excel skills can create a spreadsheet to calculate it very quickly. Here is how it is done:

Lets say Team A and Team B are fairly equal and the AccuScore Game Forecast projects each team as having a 50 percent chance of winning. After looking up the Money Line at your favorite online sportsbook, you see that Team A is an underdog, and getting 2:1 odds. This means that a $100 wager will pay off $200 if Team A wins.

Now for the math. Multiply Team A's win percentage by the amount you gain if they win (50 percent X $200= $100). Multiply Team A's loss percentage by the amount you wagered (50 percent X $100= $50). Subtract the latter from the former to get your EV ($100-$50=$50).

An EV of $50 means that if your forecast is accurate and you could place a lot of bets with 2:1 odds on a team with a 50 percent chance of winning, on average you would win $50 per bet.

So the idea here is to find these situations and exploit them for profit. Don't worry, I have already crunched the numbers here, and have found seven positive EV bets for week 9 of the NFL season.

Team Odds Win % EV

Jaguars (vs Bengals) 100:27.76 81% $3.49

Raiders (vs Falcons) 100:125 47% $5.75

Patriots (vs Colts) 100:210 36% $11.60

Dolphins (vs Broncos) 100:160 43% $11.80

Texans (vs Vikings) 100:175 41% $12.75

Packers (vs Titans) 100:170 43% $16.10

Seahawks (vs Eagles) 100:250 35% $22.50

For the rest of the season, I am going to run these numbers each week and place hypothetical bets on the teams with the best EVs. I am going to assume a starting "bankroll" of $1000 and equal wagering amounts of $100. I will also only place wagers on games with an EV of at least 10. This represents a 10 percent expected return.

For this week's games, I will be betting on the Seahawks, Packers, Texans, Dolphins, and Patriots. I will wager a total of $500 and expected profit is $74.75.

Check back next week for this week's results and next week's picks.

Bleacher Report - Articles by Mike Register

Detroit Lions Need Federal Bailout

Can ESPN Make You a Profitable Gambler?